Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Erureido]

Double abstain

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Predictions

Sora (Kingdom Hearts): 15.43%

No comment.

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Nominations

Greninja (Pokemon): x5

 

[Arcanir]

The Bear and Bird of N64 days old

Chance: 5%
Why... Why did Microsoft have to buy you?

These two are definitely popular characters, when Phil Spencer mentioned that he would be willing to negotiate their inclusion, a lot of sites blew up. You had many fans from that era asking about them, hoping for them, and voting for them so that they'd get the chance to finally fight it out with Nintendo's best like they dreamed of since the Melee days. Unfortunately, I doubt things will change for them here. The first is the recent tweet statement Phil made on the matter brought up earlier. The question was clearly asking if Phil would be up for their inclusion, which he responded with a straight yes, which ironically is actually more problematic then helpful as if they were in the game he likely would've either ignored the question or gave a non-committal answer. That implies to me that they haven't been approached yet, and considering how late it is in development I doubt they'd add them in at this point. Even ignoring that, we don't know the full extent of what the situation would be behind negotiating their inclusion, Phil has said he'd be up for it, but there are still other parties that may not be such as Sakurai, Nintendo, or other potential negotiators on Microsoft's side. Finally, there's also the issue of other Microsoft characters possibly taking precedence over them such as Steve, who is much more popular nowadays and has a clear presence among modern players. All in all, both have a number of potential issues that, despite their popularity, could prevent their inclusion, and as a result I can't rate them too highly when compared to other candidates.

Want: 70%
I still love these two, and while they aren't the Rare characters I want the most, if possible it would be fun seeing them join the battle.

Nominations: Lycanroc x5

 

[Smasher 101]

Banjo-Kazooie

long post incoming

Chance: 1%

I wish I could be optimistic here, but I can't. They are owned by Nintendo's direct competitor. That is enough for me to give them an extremely low chance. They have several things going for them, but even with things like Phil Spencer's ok, their original importance to Nintendo, and their likely very high ballot support, I really don't think Nintendo will want to go for it. They get that 1% just in case but I just can't see it happen. I do think they'll be the ones they go for if Microsoft somehow gets something at least.

Want: 100%

The Nintendo 64 was my very first console, and I have a lot of love and appreciation for the system as a direct result. I had a lot of games for it as a kid and have now played almost every major title for the system, and the two Banjo games have always been among my favorites. I love most of Rare's stuff from this era really, but in the case of these two I realized I was into 3D platformers very early on, and these guys delivered. I love the characters, the humor, the worlds, the music, just about everything. I eventually 100%'d both games which is one of my happiest gaming achievements, and I feel both still hold up very well, with Tooie remaining my favorite N64 title.

If you haven't figured it out from that, a Banjo & Kazooie pair is my most wanted newcomer by far. I love them, I love their games, I still pretty much consider them Nintendo characters even though they're not anymore, and they basically have a great moveset made for them already. I realize it will most likely never happen and I'll live with that, but if by some miracle I get my wish and they show up in Smash I will be ok with almost anything else Sakurai does with the game and will happily main the bear and bird without any hesitation.

Sora prediction: 16.38%

Nominations: Isabelle x5

 

[Wyoming]

Spoiler: Nominations update: Post-Hades, pre-Banjo

Ashley (WarioWare) x263
Geno x259
Isabelle x255
Micaiah x247
Lana (Hyrule Warriors) x242
Tethu (EverOasis) x235
Blue Bowser x232


Over 200:

Arle Nadje (Puyo Puyo) x229
Veteran: Lucas x217


199-150

Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x191
Veteran: Mewtwo x190
Agumon x180
Mike Jones (StarTropics) x178
Ganon x176
Black Shadow x169
Bomberman x155
Impa x152
Veteran: Greninja x151
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x150
Urban Champion x150

149-100

Lycanroc x146
Funky Kong x140
Dark Samus x139
Travis Touchdown x138
Sans (Undertale) x138
Kamek x132
Qbby (BoxBoy!) x131
Concept: Decloned Dark Pit x130
Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x124
Spyro x121
Concept: Marth and Roy given their English VAs x115
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x111
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x105
Lip (Panel de Pon) x103
Tsubasa Oribe (Tokyo Mirage Sessions ♯FE) x100
Simon Belmont x100

99-75

Masked Link x96
Ryu Hayabusa x95
Mipha x95
Neku Sakuraba (The World Ends with You) x95
Azura (Fire Emblem) x93
Linkle x90
Octoling x90
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x86
Concept: Skyrim representation x85
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf x83
Excitebiker x82
Sylux x81
2B (Nier: Automata) x78

74-50

Cranky Kong x73
Fjorm (Fire Emblem) x72
Labo related character x68
Gengar x68
Wonder Red (The Wonderful 101) x66
Parabo and Satebo x64
Fawful (Mario & Luigi) x61
Klonoa x60
Tetra (The Legend of Zelda) x60
Thwomp x58
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x55
Zeraora (Pokémon) x55
Katrielle Layton x53
Veteran: Roy x51
Lara Croft x50
Papyrus (Undertale) x50

49-30:

Veronica (Fire Emblem) x44
Lloyd Irving x42
Concept: Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner x40
Concept: Wars character x39
Susie (Kirby) x38
Concept: Mother Newcomer x35
Callie and Marie (Splatoon) x35
Doshin the Giant x32
Veteran: Bayonetta x32
Mimikyu x32
Barbara The Bat x32
Veteran: Dr. Mario x32
Balloon Fighter x31
Django (Boktai) x30
Steve (Minecraft) x30

29-15

Snorlax x29
Sakura Shinguji x28
Dragonite x27
Ray (Custom Robo) x27
Gooey (Kirby) x27
Hector (Fire Emblem) x 26
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x 26
Leo (FE Fates) x26
Returning game mode: Smash Run x26
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x25
Sophitia (Soulcalibur) x25
Double Day: Sheriff / Diskun x25
Prince Fluff (Kirby) x25
Tiki (Fire Emblem) x25
Concept: Style Savvy Character x25
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x25
Nia and Dromarch (Xenoblade) x24
Sable Prince x24
Concept: Indie Character x 22
9-Volt x22
Tingle x21
Scizor x 21
Veteran: Palutena x 21
Stage: New Donk City x21
Endou Mamoru x21
Concept: Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voice clips x21
Rick/Coo/Kine (Kirby) x21
Arcade Bunny x 20
Concept: Historical Nintendo character (Similar to Game and Watch or R.O.B.) x20
Viridi x20
Primarina x20
Concept: Masked Dedede Final Smash x20
Slippy Toad x20
Toon Zelda x19
Tom Nook x18
Tails x18
Mach Rider x17
Poipole (Pokemon) x17
Ghirahim x15

14 and less:

Starfy x14
Veteran: Robin x 14
Petey Piranha x13
Concept: Custom Moves Return x12
Mallo (Pushmo) x 12
Concept: Sonic Mania Stage x12
Concept: Capcom Character x12
Veteran: Cloud x11
Toad x11
Veteran: Dark Pit x11
Samurai Goroh x10
Stanley the Bugman (Donkey Kong) x10
Donkey Kong Jr. x10
Concept: Custom Final Smashes x10
Quote x10
Concept: Core Crystal Item (XC2) x10
Concept: F-Zero Newcomer x9
Veteran: Pac-Man x9
Scorpion (Mortal Kombat) x9
Dragonborn x9
KOS-MOS x9
Veteran: Sonic x 7
Incineroar x7
Tora and Poppi x7
Zangoose (Pokemon) x6
Black Mage (Final Fantasy) x6
Sukapon (Joy Mech Fight) x6
Bubbles x6
Kozukata Yori (Fatal Frame) x5
Concept: Decloned Lucina x5
Galacta Knight (Kirby) x5
Morag and Brighid (Xenoblade) x5
Master Chief x 5
Ninten (Mother) x 5
Concept: Mega Man 11 stage x5
Concept: Return of transformation characters x5
Concept - Melee/Brawl style Classic mode x5
Ayane x5
Alm (Fire Emblem) x 5
Concept: Metroid: Samus Returns Stage x5
Asuka x5
Abraham Lincoln (Codename STEAM) x5
Masked Man (Mother 3) x5
Ayumi Tachibana x5
Itsuki Aoi x5
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Protagonist x5
Monita (NintendoLand) x5
Cross/Rook/Avatar (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x5
Toon Link x5
Yooka & Laylee x5
Caeda x5
Concept: Charizard Remerged with Pokemon Trainer+complete movesets x5
King Hippo x5
Glass Joe x5
Master Hand x5
Solaire (Dark Souls) x5
Reinhardt (Fire Emblem) x5
Dr. Kawashima x5
Slime (Dragon Quest) x5
Concept: Female Announcer x5 (NEW)
Hyness (Kirby Star Allies) x4
Rick the Hamster x4
Shadow the Hedgehog x4
Mii Fighters x 4
King Boo x4
Geese Howard (Fatal Fury/ King of Fighters) x3
Mario RPG representation (Including Paper Mario and M&L) x3
Poochy (Yoshi series) x3
Veteran: Corrin x 3
Porky Minch x3
Veteran: Wii Fit Trainer x3
Specter Knight x3
Saki x3
Weavile x3
[Rerate] Isaac (Golden Sun) x2
Vaati x2
Nightmare (SoulCalibur) x2
Joker (Persona 5) x2
Concept: The Sims character x2
Toadette x2
Jack Frost (Shin Megami Tensei) x2
Concept: Snipperclips representation x2
Jeanne (Bayonetta) x2
Garon x1
Rosalina & Luma x1
Bowser Jr. x1
Knuckles the Echidna x1
New Mii Fighter types (concept) x 1
Harry (Teleroboxer) x 1
Sheik x1
Undertale Representation x1
Revali x1
Daruk x1
Urbosa x1
Jack (Harvest Moon) x1
Sol Badguy x1
Kyo Kusanagi x1
Ryoma (FE Fates) x1
Falco x1
Vivian (Paper Mario) x1
Mallow (SMRPG) x1
Concept: Playable Master/Crazy Hand x1
Blastoise x1
Alph x1
Marshal (Rhythm Heaven) x1
Tapu Koko x1
Hyper Light Drifter x1
Dark Falz x1
Silvally x1
Hat Kid (A Hat in Time) x1
Captain Syrup x1
Concept: Tetris Stage or Assist Trophy x1
Concept: Ms.Pac Man alt costume for Pac Man x1
Concept: Entire roster revealed at E3 x1
Stage: Sheikah Shrine x1
Stage: Ultra Space x1
Stage: Miitopia Stage x1
Stage: Happy Home Designer x1

Ashley is now the new leader.
Impa, Greninja, and Urban Champion break 150 noms.
Lip, Simon Belmont, and Marth/Roy speaking English breaks 100 noms
Roy and Papyrus break 50 noms
Barbara, Dr. Mario, and Steve break 30 noms
Ghirahim is now over 15 noms.
One new addition: Concept - Female Announcer (x5)

 

[Deleted member]

Banjo-Kazoiee
Want-75%
Chance-6%
Interesting choice and i would love it to happen but i feel that it wouldn't thanks to microsoft promotion.
Prediction
Sora-30.7%(i have a dank meme for this one)
Noms:
Sable Prince-5×

 

[ZealousGamer]

Banjo & Kazooie.

Chance 50%: With Phil Spencer giving a pretty confident approval and Nintendo working with Microsoft to bring Minecraft to the Switch (with skins of Xbox characters mind you) I think they have a great shot. This is perhaps the best shot these 2 could ask for. If Nintendo and Microsoft can work together to port a full game (again, it even includes Xbox skins); then they should be able to include Banjo & Kazooie into Smash Bros. There is also the Ballot and their Iconic status. I would say they have an even better chance than Crash Bandicoot.

Want 80%: I haven't played their games yet but, I believe out of most 3rd party characters they deserve to be included. More so than Cloud or Crash and definitely more than Doom Guy or Solaire.

Nominations:
Pokemon Trainer (Second Generation) 3x
Masked Link 2x

 

[VexTheHex]

Banjo and Kazoie
Chance - 12%
3rd parties are always uphill battles to get into Smash. They are old characters with a Nintendo fan base. They aren't highly likely, but they can show up. I remember people counting Pacman as unlikely pre-4. I do worry Duck Hunt Stole some of their potential.
Want - 95%
They are characters that I have a personal viewpoint of them as true gaming icons like Bomberman, Megaman, Mario, Pacman, and Crash. Banjo and Kazooie was awesome, and I would enjoy seeing them in Smash. They lose 5% cause of 3rd party fatigue (this is a Nintendo All Star game), but they are actually one of the true gaming icons that I can get behind in terms of 3rd parties.

Nominations - 5x Greninja

 

[StormC]

I wish I was as optimistic about life as the people voting 50% or higher for Banjo. They must know something I don't.

 

[Organization XIII]

I wish I was as optimistic about life as the people voting 50% or higher for Banjo. They must know something I don't.

Well, see the main thing is people grossly overestimate how much being owned by Microsoft limits their inclusion. Since Nintendo has 2 games completely owned by Microsoft on some of their consoles it doesn't seem like it would be as big a deal as people seem to make it out to be. Also, Phil Spencer is literally the head of the gaming division at Microsoft so if he says it's ok plus the fact 2 of Microsoft's games are on Nintendo's systems that actually is significant even though people try to devalue that. Banjo also meets every requirement Sakurai stated he had for Smash 4 so if the criteria are the same he's good there. Though I am sure some people, or at least I did, gave him that score with DLC in mind as that's more than likely where he'll appear rather than the base roster.

 

[StormC]

Of course Phil Spencer agreed to it, free advertisement for him. Nintendo has all the negotiating power.

 

[VexTheHex]

I wish I was as optimistic about life as the people voting 50% or higher for Banjo. They must know something I don't.

Well, Rex and Decidueye were scoring plenty of 90% and higher votes in Chance. What's funny about that is that higher than some veterans are likely to score. Despite the possibility for Rex being too new or Xenoblade even not pulling a newcomer, Rex was scoring an almost guarantee scores. Then there are many potential Pokemon that could grab the (likely) Pokemon slot. Pokken could also easily work against Decidueye if they want to push another Pokemon instead since they used him there. And yet he was scoring like he is the only popular Pokemon in years despite being less popular than many others like Primarina or Mimikyu.

So while I can understand the concern on people rating Banjo highly, this whole thread will always boil down to personal bias or band wagon thoughts anyway. So don't take too much stock in the ratings and enjoy the ride.

 

[Organization XIII]

Of course Phil Spencer agreed to it, free advertisement for him. Nintendo has all the negotiating power.

That's true but Nintendo has a lot of negotiating power in all 3rd party inclusions as Smash literally doesn't need a single 3rd party character to be successful. But the real point is Nintendo has cooperated with Microsoft in the past and people treat Smash like it's an exception to that.

this whole thread will always boil down to personal bias or band wagon thoughts anyway. So don't take too much stock in the ratings and enjoy the ride.

That's very true.

 

[TheDukeofDorks]

Banjo and Kazooie:

Chances: 10%

Yes, they are owned by a direct competitor of Nintendo's, but said competitor already has several GAMES on Nintendo hardware, so that argument is null. The problem with them is that if a Microsoft character were to make it into Smash Brothers, (And that's already a big if, there's a lot of companies to choose from) Banjo and Kazooie have stiff competition from Steve, who represents one of the most important games in all of history, and from Master Chief, the face of the first person shooter.

Those are some major hurdles to overcome, but I imagine they did respectably well on the ballot. If Sakurai would seriously consider Geno, a one off third party character, for inclusion, I would not be shocked to see fan favorites like Banjo and Kazooie

Want: 100%

I've never played any of their games, in all the years I've spent speculating about Smash Brothers, I've constantly seen these two pop up as the ultimate, impossible pipe dream. I would be beautiful to finally have that dream come true.

 

[Sailor Waddle Dee]

Alright, I've been waiting for this one!

Banjo & Kazooie!

Chance: I'm going to be realistic, but optimistic here and say 25%

It's not likely, I can't deny that. but I feel like there's enough fan demand there that it's still possible they'll go for it. Phill Spencer giving his blessing, while not a guarantee of it happening. shows that it COULD happen. on top of that him saying that no doubt reignited a lot of interest in seeing the Bear and Bird in smash. I'm sure they did well in the Ballot too so that could play into them being considered. on top of that Microsoft has worked with Nintendo to bring Minecraft to the Switch WITH BANJO KAZOOIE SKINS. and back during the N64 era Banjo was a major series for Nintendo. featured on the packaging of the N64 alongside Nintendo's own 1st party characters. The series still has loyal fans even now. Plus Banjo is one of the few 3rd party characters who would "break the internet" to the levels of characters like Sonic or Megaman. Microsoft may not decide to play ball, Nintendo might not, Sakurai might write them off, anything could happen. but that's just it. ANYTHING could happen. they COULD get in.

If it weren't for the buyout, they'd have no doubt been added to the roster a long time ago, and become mainstays of the series. they BELONG in smash.

Want: OVER NINETHOUUUUSAAAAAAND PERCENT!!!
but for the sake of playing by the rules. 100%

Banjo is a character I've wanted to use in smash since the very first smash game. he just fits TOO well! and the series has always been very special to me. I got Sonic, I got Megaman, now give me Banjo, please Sakurai, please. make my childhood dreams come true. Banjo is my absolute number 1 most wanted newcomer in smash. and he will maintain that spot until he gets in.

Sora Pediction: 20%

Nominations
Qbby x5

 

[ProfPeanut]

Banjo & Kazooie

Chance: 7%
You know, the really weird part is that essentially no other third-party character has a closer history to Nintendo than Banjo-Kazooie, so anyone would think they'd be the obvious choice. Yet Donkey Kong, the one Nintendo franchise that owes almost all its success to Rare, struggles to get even a third representative into the roster.

Microsoft has nothing to do with this, for Banjo-Kazooie counts so little as a Microsoft character than it's kind of loony that people would think they'd compete with Master Chief. No, the simple thing is this: Nintendo has, for some reason or other, cared relatively little for Rare ever since the N64 era, and that just hasn't changed up to this day. Going out of their way to get Banjo & Kazooie would be a completely-surprising act of goodwill on Nintendo's part, for a company that they were never confident enough in to fully incorporate despite games like Goldeneye 007 and the Donkey Kong Country series.

Banjo & Kazooie represent the side of Rare that wasn't just outsourcing products, an irrevocable mark that they were more than just people who filled up their game libraries. And given their long history, that really is something they should include in this all-stars celebration of all things Nintendo, if only Sakurai would think the same way too.


Want: 40%
It'd be a nice and entertaining nod, but that's all I can say. As someone who never grew up with the N64, my appreciation of these characters stems entirely from what other people have said about them, and by extension Rare. But without that nostalgia bug, it's kind of either them or Crash Bandicoot for me, and the latter's the earlier and bigger mark on platforming history.


Prediction:
Sora: 6.5%

Nominations:
Papyrus (Undertale) x10

 

[Starcutter]

Banjo: 15%

Want 100%

Banjo is literally the only major "Third Party that is on the same tier as Cloud and Megaman. Granted, he's the bottom of S tier, but he's still an S tier in my book.

Sora: 9.5%

Nom: Snip & Clip x5

 

[CatRaccoonBL]

Banjo
Chance: 10%
The percent I give all third parties because they are just way too unperdictable.

Want: 10%
Don't have any attachment to them.

Nominations: Ashley (Warioware) x5

 

[Koopaul]

Banjo-Kazooie
Chance: 0.5%
Very very very unlikely. But not entirely impossible. In fact the only characters that I think are 100% impossible are non-video game characters like Goku.

Want: (years ago 100%) but now it's 5%
Back in the day I completely expected Banjo to be in Melee. He was a character I wanted in Smash more than anyone. However, things have changed. I'm sorry but allowing a character owned by Microsoft would be so unprecedented that it would, in a way, open the floodgates to all sorts of video game characters that, in my opinion, have no buisiness being in Smash. I'm sorry Banjo.

Predictions for Sora
Chance: 15%
Want: 65%

Nominations:
Barbara ×3
Slime ×2

 

[Skyblade12]

It would not be a good idea for Nintendo. Sure, Microsoft would salivate at the concept. It’s massive advertising for games they could shovel out with no effort or care (like Nuts & Bolts). And instead of costing them, they’d get paid for it. And then you have a Microsoft exclusive Banjo Kazooie game, and someone going to be drawn to one console or the other on the basis of a character. Would you choose the console which has that character as a bit role, or one which has them starring in their own game?

Unless Nintendo buys the IP, it does not make business sense to put them in Smash.

That said, I’m going to abstain from the rating, because strange things can certainly happen.

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Banjo Chance: 10%
Popular, but owned by a rival company.

Want: 0%

Sora Prediction: 10%

Nominations: Gengar X5

 

[-crump-]

Banjo-Kazooie
Chance: 10%
Besides being owned by direct competition, these two are not nearly as iconic as I’ve seen many imply. The bird and bear are not on the level of Sonic, or Mega Man, or Ryu, or Cloud. If Sakurai absolutely wanted to negotiate with Microsoft to give them a free advertisement, I don’t think Banjo would be the thing he would gravitate towards. Popularity is the one and only thing these two have on their side, and at this point I don’t think that’s enough.

Want: 25%
Never grew up with Banjo-Kazooie, but I wouldn’t be upset to see them. Their design easily fits into Smash Bros, and the crazy fan reaction would be awesome, even if I wouldn’t be hyped personally.

 

[DaUsername]

Banjo & Kazooie
Chance: 10%
Want : 80%

Sora prediction: 9%
Noms: Dr. Mario x5

 

[nirvanafan]

Banjo & Kazooie

Chances: 20%
I acknowledge it is unlikely although Microsoft does seem open about this possibility however who knows if Nintendo is or if they ca reach a suitable agreement for both sides.

Want: 100%
One of 2 franchises I grew up with (other being Crash) that is not here yet and I will never completely give up hope for this dream roster to be in my perfect Smash game.

Nomination: Linkle X5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Banjo and Kazooie
10% Chance

More likely than I would have ever rated them previously. The fact that Microsoft is open to it and inevitable strong ballot support makes Banjo a possibility, albeit unlikely.


100% Want

I love platformers. They were in some damn good ones. Some of the best N64 games ever.

Nominating Spyro x 5

DAY Over, please wait for calcs incoming

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Banjo and Kazooie

17.35% Chance
61.29% Want

Yet another Top Ten in Want placement. Honestly aside from high chance scores I am not too surprised.

Dr. Jojo Phantasma wins five noms for today.

Today we have Sora from Kingdom Hearts. With KH3 finally coming out, please rate Sora in Chance and Want. Also predict the scores for Dark Matter (Blade).

As a sidenote you have until the end of the month for the nominations purge of under 25 nommed characters.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Sora is one of the most interesting candidates to analyze the chances for in Smash Switch. I know it is easy to dismiss the possibility of Sora getting in the game with Disney fully owning the rights to Sora/Kingdom Hearts, but I think there is more favoring Sora than some people might think. I have gained an unusual amount of confidence for Sora being in Smash Switch and I cannot let go of him in my predictions, so I might as well explain.

One notable positive in his favor is Sora likely ranking massively high on the Smash ballot. Back when the ballot voting period started, I saw a colossal amount of fans campaigning for Sora on social media platforms such as Twitter. The support is MOST apparent on YouTube, where Kingdom Hearts YouTubers would consistently encourage people to vote for Sora on the ballot. I have seen Sora campaigned more than any other third-party voted in the West, that I would not be so surprised if he was the #1 ballot choice voted in the region of North America. Sora's demand likely surpasses far more than other Square candidates (aside from maybe Geno), and those amount of votes will definitely get Sakurai’s attention to consider Sora for Smash.

The other matter to consider is Sakurai’s current relationship with Square Enix and Nomura. Sakurai has been notably close with Tetsuya Nomura many times ever since Cloud’s reveal in Smash 4, from the Creator interview regarding Cloud’s reveal in Smash, Nintendo Dream interview briefly discussing Cloud’s inclusion, to Sakurai’s recent statement he made about Nomura for KH’s 15th anniversary. Sakurai is definitely aware of KH and at least enjoys playing the KH games, based on his participation of the latter event. He would also be aware of the possible licensing issues when thinking about Sora. But, there are noteworthy statements from Sakurai in the Nintendo Dream Smash interview that makes me think Sakurai would willingly go for Sora:

*Taken from Part 2 of the Creator interview.

Sakurai: Oh, is that so? But really, when you take a step back and look at it, when you see all of these different characters in the same place, Smash is pretty crazy. I suppose that’s pretty ridiculous of me to say, though, given that I’m the creator (laughs).

Nomura: Whether it’s crazy or not, you’ve assembled quite a number of characters.

Sakurai: Honestly, when we revealed Solid Snake for Brawl, I thought, “There’s no way we’ll be able to stage a bigger surprise than this.” But, as a creator, you just keep making more while trying to surprise and delight your audience as much as possible.

Nomura: The element of surprise is very important.

Note the bolded, italic statement. Given the openness of Sakurai doing another collaboration with Nomura…:

*Also taken from Part 2 of the Creator interview.

Interviewer: Would you like to make another game together in the future, or do another collaboration?

Sakurai: It seems like it would be difficult to decide who would have what role, though.

Nomura: If we were to work together, I think I’d leave most everything up to Mr. Sakurai.

…and noting Sakurai’s relationship with Square Enix at the time:

*Taken from the Nintendo Dream interview.

Sakurai: Those third-party characters are huge icons of their respective companies, so such an opportunity is hard to come by. That being said, now that Smash has grown into a well-known franchise, the creators recognize the merits of allowing us to use their characters, so negotiations have tended to go rather smoothly.

All of these statements from Sakurai lead me to believe that there is a real possibility of Sakurai negotiating Sora with Nomura right after doing an interview with him and Sakurai notcing Sora's high popularity in the ballot. With how ambitious Sakurai is with adding surprise fighters such as Cloud, Villager, and Wii Fit Trainer, if he wants to keep pushing for surprises in this new Smash (Especially with third-party choices), then choosing someone like Sora that would be seen as impossible for a hardcore speculating audience would definitely be the next transitional step of surprise. With Sakurai having the experience of negotiating with Square Enix with Cloud, the game history KH carries with the franchise with being critically and financially successful (Selling over 20 million units total as of this 2014 statement), Sora’s distinct upbeat appeal/characterization, and the moveset potential he has with keyblade powers, he seriously feels like a choice that Sakurai would pick next.

I personally do not see other Square characters like a Dragon Quest character being actual competition. If Sakurai is going to aim for Sora, then it is him or nothing else. I cannot see Sakurai going for an alternate Square option, especially when Sora's degree of popularity likely outnumbers a number of SQ candidates by miles. What third-party choices will be chosen will be heavily based on very top ballot rankings IMO. The only actual obstacles Sora really has is possible licensing issues with Disney. But, there have been multiple instances where KH collaborations in other franchises have been more frequent, like Sora appearing in a recent FF title (World of Final Fantasy) and Mickey’s KH costume in Disney Infinity. These situations have shown Disney’s recent growing openness towards KH content appearing in other games. But, the person who will have the biggest influence and convince Disney to have Sora become a playable fighter in Smash would be none other than Tetsuya Nomura himself.

There is not one doubt in my mind that Nomura would love to see another of his creations become a fighter in Smash. With Nomura’s enormous reputation in the gaming industry and his 16-year long gaming relationship with Disney ever since creating KH1, I do feel Nomura alone could convince Disney that Sora appearing in a party fighting game like Smash would be a great idea. Everything I say here is what gets me unusually confident about Sora in the same way I felt Bayonetta was a very possible choice when Smash 4 DLC was announced. I think this will be Sakurai’s next wild-card choice for a third-party after Cloud. I feel Disney is LESS of an issue than people initially think. Sora has a legitimate shot and is arguably in the best position now to get in Smash Switch.

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x5 Tom Nook

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Double abstaining today.

Predictions for Dark Matter: 10.92%

Nominations: Canon DK/Bowser/Diddy voices x3 Qbby x2

 

[Deleted member]

Just in case anyone isn't fluent in Kirby, this stands for double zeroes

Sora is owned by Disney, and we all know how strict they are when it comes to licensing. I normally don't give 0% chances because anything can happen with Sakurai, but this is an instance where Im biased against the character in question.

I've never touched a Kingdom Hearts game but from Somecallmejohnny's reviews of the series I concluded that the series is not for me thanks to its disasterous writing, and Sora is a terrible protagonist with an awful design.
I'm normally very open minded when it comes to 3rd parties, but Sora is one of the few characters I actively want to stay out of Smash. Don't get him or his series anywhere near Smash please. Darth Vader is the superior Disney character anyway.

Susie x2, Mimikyu x3

 

[Cosmic77]

Sora

Chance: 1%
I feel kinda bad to give this score after BluePikmin11 made that long post explaining why Sora has a decent chance.

Honestly, Square Enix alone is already an obstacle, but combining SE with Disney and trying to get the rights to Sora in Smash? Probably a lot more trouble than it's worth. Seeing how Sakurai almost gave up on Pac-Man over something as simple as a design, I can't see him going out of his way to wait for Nintendo to negotiate with SE and Disney when he could be spending his time on a third-party character whose company is more cooperative.

Want: 0%
Aside from me not caring much for third-parties anyway, Sora just isn't the character I'm pining for.

Dark Matter prediction: 15.6%

Nominations: Mipha x5

 

[Aetheri]

Sora

Chance: 12%
While Square Enix has started being involved with Smash recently with the addition of Cloud, Sora on the other is owned by Disney...However that doesn't necessarily mean that it'll never happen as we don't know Disney's stance on Smash as a whole...Disney on the other hand has partnered with Nintendo a few times with some exclusive titles like Epic Mickey on the Wii...

Kingdom Hearts has had it's share of Nintendo appearances too, so Sora while not the most likely contender isn't out of the realm of possibility...However Sora as a character I feel would be best left as a possible DLC inclusion...

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Want: 35%
Haven't had much experience with Kingdom Hearts, but perhaps he could be an interesting addition...

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Dark Matter-13.43%

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Dark Samus x5

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Sora
Chance: 0%
Oh boy here we go. I admit that I was too rash and harsh in giving Banjo a 0, but Sora has definitely earned his. While Microsoft may be a huddle for Banjo, Disney is even worse with their business. Disney will charge an outrageous price just to put Sora in the game. Just the character and not including stages, music or anything else KH related to appear in the game. It is not worth it for Nintendo getting Sora in when there are other easier third party characters they can use instead for big hype.

Not to mention Disney is opposed to their characters being in crossover fighting games. They refused for Sora to be in the FF Dissidia games despite SE developing the KH games. Disney just doesn't need the money or exposure so Nintendo would have a hard time with negotiations.

Want: 80%
Still I would like Sora to be in the game as I am a fan of the KH games and he would have an interesting moveset.

Dark Matter: 12.3%

x10 to Geno

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Sora
Chance: 12% - Kingdom Hearts is a massively popular franchise worldwide and though Disney is something of an obstacle, they've had a very positive and friendly relationship with Nintendo. Beyond that, Square actually has no say in whether or not he gets in, as he is 100% owned by Disney.
Want: 100% - I love the games and the character, and with KH3 finally releasing this year, the time is too tight.

Prediction: Dark Matter
Chance:12.08%
Want: 32.15%

Nominations:
Sakura Shinguji x5

 

[Skyblade12]

Didn’t forget the other problem: Disney won’t relinquish creative control. Not only would they be hard to work with and demand a lot, they’d also demand the right to choose the move set and make sure he feels right. Sakurai would hate that.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Another JRPG Fashion Monstrosity with a...Giant Key...?

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

Another example of “this character probably did well on a ballot we know next to nothing about.” While he would fit in Smash based on the aesthetic (or at least with Shulk and co.) he’s not really a character I’m stoked to see in Smash.

See all previous arguments about third parties.

And let’s face it - if he’s owned by Disney, that’s an issue. And we haven’t seen Western 3rd party characters in Smash...which he’d technically be if the Mouse is in charge.

Prediction for Dark Matter: 12.5%
Nomination: Mewtwo x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

What evidence do you have that Disney would take creative control in terms of video games Skyblade?

 

[ZealousGamer]

Sora

Chance 1%: Disney owns him and chances are his moveset might include Donald and Goofy; 2 non video game characters.

Want 1%: As I stated Sora might bring Donald and Goofy (no, I don't hate them) which could in theory open Pandora's Box giving an excuse to any fan that wants non-video game characters into Smash Bros. The 1% is if Sora doesn't have any Disney character in his moveset which is doubtful.

Nomination:
Masked Link 2x
Pokemon Trainer (2nd Gen) 3x

 

[WeirdChillFever]

What evidence do you have that Disney would take creative control in terms of video games Skyblade?

I think there was something with Disgea that makes people think that. Just throwing that out there and I'm too lazy to look up what it was even about but that was it.

But then again Nintendo was pretty darn strict when it came to Bowser in Wreck-It Ralph iirc too but he's in Smash.

Although I know Smash is growing and devs have a lot to gain from a Smash promotion, I think Disney isn't the company that would gain too much from Smash since they're already a bazillionaire company.

Also I don't see why Nomura would be the head chief for the negotiations as Disney owns KH. If the man to watch was indeed Nomura I think Sora would be a pretty big frontrunner.

Fine: I'll rate

Chance: Ha I dunno
Want: 100%
The man above me laments about the possibility of Donald Duck in Smash whereas that possibility is the thing that would make me buy tenthousand copies of the game. I don't care about mr clownshoe smile but gawrsh I need Donald Duck to bring the armageddon of fourth party possibilities. All aboard Steamboat Willy!

 

[Quetzal77]

Sora
Chance: 0%
He's owned by Disney. I don't see it.

Want: 100%
KH was a huge part of my early teenage years, and I still enjoy the franchise. He's been on Nintendo consoles before and would fit in much better than Cloud, plus his inclusion would be encouraging for KH collection or KH3 coming to Switch.

Dark matter: 5.99%
Nominations: Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x3, Neku x2

 

[Opossum]

Sora

Chance: 1%

Disney, man. Disney is big and powerful enough to make Nintendo look like a mom and pop store at a rundown strip mall. They're also incredibly stingy with their IP...and Kingdom Hearts in particular. I've spoken to people who were on the Disney Infinity team at Avalanche Studios and Disney Interactive. They had to fight tooth and nail to get Kingdom Hearts content in Infinity. Their own game. And that was just to have a Keyblade weapon and a King Mickey costume disc, not even something like a Sora figure.

Only reason this isn't a zero is because I can see Sakurai at least considering him. He's a huge gaming icon.

Want: 100%
I'm a big Disney fan. Seeing (c) Disney down there with all the other companies would be neat. Plus he's fun in SSF2 and would likely bring Goofy along. Goofy's awesome.

Predicting a 4.8 for Dark Matter.
Nominating English Marth x5

 

[Troykv]

Sora

Chance: Abstain

His chances depends of if Disney will allow Nomura/Sakurai creative control of the character or not.

Want: 50%

I'm pretty neutral with him, I think people will like him, so yeah, he would be nice.

___________________________________________

Prediction time!

The darkest of the matter: 13.5%

Nomination time!

Micaiah (Fire Emblem) x5