Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Morbi]

Jibanyan

Chance: 20%

I honestly do not know much about him; however, with Sakurai's extreme Japanese bias, it is feasible, to say the least. It might be that whole "Pokemon vs Digimon" idea but with Yokai Watch instead.

Want: 50%

I actually do not know how I feel, so I just went for the middle.

 

[Quetzal77]

Jibanyan
Chance: 15%
He's pretty likely as a third party, imo. There's a good relationship with Nintendo there, and he's popular enough.

Want: abstain

Marx: 9.7%

Nominations: Pyra/Mythra (without Rex), Impa x2, Mipha x2

 

[Fenriraga]

Ghost Type Meowth

Chance: 10%

Yo-Kai may have its popularity in Japan, which is bonus points for any character's odds, but the series itself lacks one thing every third party so far has had: A Legacy. I just don't think it's been around long enough or left enough of an impact on its genre to warrant a fighter in Smash. If 5 or 6 years down the line from now, Yo-Kai is still as relevant as it is today, then sure, I can see it happening. But as it stands now, Jibanyan doesn't come anywhere close to holding a candle to Smash's other third party picks.

Want: Abstain
I have yet to even touch Yo-Kai Watch and I here very back-and-forth opinions on the series as a whole, so I really can't gauge my own thoughts on him.

Nominate Geno x5.

 

[CometX-ing]

Jibanyan
Chances: 20%
Popular in Japan, not sure how much elsewhere, I just can't see him getting in as a third party. I could be wrong of course, Yo-kai Watch is a mixed-media franchise with multiple avenues of gaining recognition, and Sakurai could see that as reason enough. And of all the characters in the series, Jibanyan is their Pikachu and would be the obvious pick. But seeing as it lacks the legacy and popularity that most other third parties have I just can't see it, and I can't think of any particular reason that Nintendo would want to represent it.

Want: 0%
Never played the games, and don't really intend to, it was just never an interesting series for me. If we had to get a Level-5 character I would much rather it be Layton.

Nomination: Primarina x5.

 

[Deleted member]

Jibanyan

Chance: 10%
There's already at least a dozen of other potential third-party candidates before him, not to mention how the franchise only received a rather lukewarm reception overseas.

Want: abstain
As always I've not enough experience with his series to judge how he would play so I avoid to rate him with a Want score.


Noms:
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x5

Marx prediction: 23.03%

 

[A Distant Demon]

Jibanyan is definitely one of the stranger situations we've had so far. He's the Pikachu-equivalent for Yokai watch and would thus be the likely choice for a playable character in the series. In Japan, Yokai watch was a mega machine. It was allegedly huge. It was selling so well that it was touted as a possible pokemon killer and I remember a lot of people saying that it would be what "finally forces pokemon to stop being stale." (But that is another argument lol). However, that hype did not last. Yokai watch 1 and 2 were immense sellers, but 3 led to a huge drop in sales. About a 50% drop! They aren't BAD sales, just relatively lower.

There is still the matter of the anime and other things like ****ing amusement park rides, but this is mostly eastern focused things. In the west, Yo-kai watch had problems busting through the west unfortunately. Again, not bad, but not as big as Japan.

Honestly, I think Jibanyan has a decent shot. More than yesterday's rating at least. With such immense popularity in Japan (AKA where Nintendo and Sakurai are based) may be enough. But the much lower western sales as well as the lack of history (the series is only like 5 years old) is a major hurdle. But absolutely not an insurmountable one.


I personally dont really care for him. Dont love him dont hate him. I never played one of the games because I didn't like the basic premise of everything being AI and the yokai capturing sounds really annoying and basically everyone said "wait for 2 to come to the west" but then a third version was released so im waiting for that to stop being so expensive :/

Noms
Elma x5

 

[Llort A. Ton]

Jibanyan

Chance: 15%
Is this game even still popular in Japan? Not trying to detract, just genuinely curious as to if this was more than a fad. But, even if it isnt, the roster was decided in 2016, when the series was popular. The series was only big in Japan, BUT Nintendo published it at least here in the U.S., so Nintendo may have wanted to promote it and make it huge around the world with Smash. If this game is more like older ones, I think he's unlikely. However, Sakurai may wanna take an advertisement approach and include him for the sake of it. I don't see that as likely, though.

Want- 0%
Never played Yo Kai, don't want advertisement characters (hed be fanservice for Japanese certainly, but not for the rest of the world), I have several more 3rd parties Id prefer.

Marx- 34.66%

Thwomp X 3
Banjo Kazooie X 2

 

[ShinyRegice]

Jibanyan chances: 24% 12%
Has been hugely popular in Japan during the last few years and is owned by a company close to Nintenod, but his relative lack of international appeal might hurt him as a third-party.
Edit: with other people mentioning that his series lost a little bit of momentum even in Japan, I'm gonna half my score.

Jibanyan want: 1%
I could easily do without it, as I don't find the idea really appealing.

Marx prediction: 8.92%

Nominating:
Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x3
Playable newcomer: Mimikyu x2

Gonna save the Pokémon from being removed from the nomination list this month.

 

[Sid-cada]

Jibanyan

Chance - 9.5% - I don't think he's likely than Layton, at least. His games were popular for a while in Japan but failed to make the enormous waves in the rest of the world. While he did peak at the time the roster was decided, I think Layton's more famous internationally and having more history behind him makes him more likely.

Want - 20% - Eh... not my cup of tea.


Predicitons

Marx - 14.24% - Wait until the next wave of Dream Friend DLC.


Nominanitons

Arle Nadja X5

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

I think Jibanyan would be a good third party choice. It would make for a great crossover, what with Pokémon and Yo-kai Watch being rivals. His design also fits in well with Smash.

Jibanyan want: 2% (12-10*)

Nominations:

FE Spear User x5

* Indicates percentage penalty for potentially taking a slot from most wanted characters

 

[Arcanir]

Jibanyan

Chance: 15%
From what I understand, Yokai Watch was huge in Japan with the first two games. The merchandise sold like hotcakes, the movies did excellently, the anime was doing very well and the games of course were huge sellers for the country. It even got to the point where it was usurping spotlight from Pokémon of all things, it was quite the phenomenon. Unfortunately though, that's where all the good points end as it started dying off in 2016 as sales and popularity-wise it severely went down from its peak and it hasn't gotten better for it since. What makes things worse for it is that it also attempted to break out in the west with its anime and games, and while they didn't do terribly, they were far from the hit that Level-5 (and Nintendo as they were pretty supportive) were hoping for. Ultimately, while it's a franchise that had a huge presence in Japan as well as Nintendo's support in the west, its lack of presence with international audiences and it being past its peak hurts it pretty badly, and in respect to other third parties, it may very well lose out to those that have more popularity/longevity among a broader audience.

Want: 30%
I took a look into it and it just doesn't appeal to me. I understand it has a charm, but in terms of Mon franchises I prefer others like Digimon over it.

Nomination: Lycanroc x5

 

[Runic_SSB]

Jibanyan

Chance: 20%
I didn't know until right now that Jibanyan was a 3rd-party character.

Want: 0%
I don't like Yo-Kai Watch.

Marx prediction: 15%

Nominations

Travis Touchdown x3

Funky Kong x2

 

[wildvine47]

Jibanyan

Chance: 12% - Gonna try and do this with as little bias influence as possible. Yokai Watch was a megahit in Japan, with it's success coming in only second to Pokemon's in the monster-catching RPG subgenre. Nintendo themselves published it overseas in non-Japan regions, showing their faith in the franchise, and they've given it quite the push with advertisements and the like. Level 5's also got a great relationship with Nintendo, and there's no way they'd turn down the opportunity to get a character in Smash. The franchise was also at the height of it's popularity when roster decision making would have been taking place, which would be a point in the cat's favor.

And that's all the good things I have to say about Jibanyan. His series flopped outside of Japan, as populations outside of Japan know far less about the concept of yokai, meaning culturally, it didn't have the same appeal. Even within Japan the series seems to have been a fad, as the third game in the franchise sold much worse than it's predecessors, and already Level 5 are rebooting the series with a darker, edgier theme to it. Most damningly, he's just not important enough. Third parties, ballot exception Bayonetta aside, are all industry-defining titans who have made the gaming market what it is today. Jibanyan's certainly not going to have the ballot strength to reach the same level Bayo did, as he'll have next to no votes from outside of Japan. Without that option available to him, he's sunk. His franchise is nothing compared to not only the already-present third parties, but also the long list of infinitely more important other third parties waiting in line. Even within his own company, Jibanyan has the much more illustrious and important Layton.

Want: 0% - And thank god for that. Jibanyan is on the level of Rabbids and Sans for me in terms of characters I never ever want to even get close to Smash Bros. I've looked through the entire "dex" of Yokai before, just to see if there was anything worth salvaging, and there were maybe two Yokai I found tolerable, and everything else was hideous. I don't want this franchise anywhere near Smash Bros., dead cat and his million recolors included. Jibanyan singlehandedly made me a Layton supporter, just for the hope that Layton getting in would keep out. Digimon will always be the true Pokemon rival in my heart anyways.

Predictions

Marx: 16.61% - The Dream Friend DLC came much too late to really help him out, and I feel like the heavy competition within Kirby won't do him any favors either. As a DLC character option though, Sakurai being his creator does give him a potential leg up on the competition. Will be interesting to see how tomorrow shakes out for this cosmic jester.

Nominations

Impa x 5

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Jibanyan Chance: 5%

Want: 0%

Marx Prediction: 20%

Nominations: Gengar X5

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Jibanyan Chance: 5%
I don't know too much about the series, but Jibanyan is a third party character which means he will have plenty of competition, and I don't see his series as one of the frontrunners.

Want: 0%
I have no attachment no him, nothing more to say.

Marx: 14.6%

x5 to Elma

 

[-crump-]

Yokai Watch character, you say?

Jibanyan
Chance: 15%
From what I understand, Yokai Watch is on it’s last legs in Japan... but when Sakurai was likely planning the roster in 2016, the franchise was still huge there. Surely it’s absurd level of fame, alongside it’s close relationship with Nintendo, would be enough for Sakurai to consider adding Jibanyan to Smash. That said, Yokai Watch never made any kind of splash outside of it’s homeland, so I doubt a 3rd party character with a range of popularity that limited would be something the big man would ultimately decide to include.

Want: 10%
Gonna be honest, I didn’t play any of the games. My only exposure to the franchise was watching one of the English-dubbed movies on Netflix with my brother-in-law and making fun of it for being campy. I don’t think he’s iconic enough to be a held up to characters like Sonic and Pac-Man. Gotta admit, his design is kinda cute, though.
______________
“But -crump- , don’t you support Shovel Knight, who has the same issues as the one you mentioned for Jibanyan, and whose range of popularity is just as limited?”

...Shhhhhh, let me dream
_____________________

Noms:
Henry Fleming x5

 

[Roberk]

Chance: 10%
It's certainly possible that Jibanyan could make it in if the project outline and roster were decided on in 2016 when Yo-Kai was extremely popular... in Japan. The franchise is almost nothing outside of it and while Sakurai does have a Japan bias he tries to keep out characters that would alienate the West. Plus, he has betters competitors for a third-party slot and even a Level-5 slot.

Want: 0%
I'd be fine if a series like Yo-Kai is iconic and had a long history of titles and/or innovation to the industry, but it just doesn't cut it. I want actual characters, not some mascot.

Marx: 10%

Noms: FE Spear user x5

 

[Cosmic77]

Jibanyan

Chance: 50%
Yo-kai is getting a Switch game. I could see it happening.


Want: 10%
Don't really care that much for the character.

Marx Prediction: 17.4%

Nominations: Mipha x5

 

[Kitty-chan]

Jibanyan

Chance: 20%
Was a very popular character in Japan for a time, the games are exclusive to Nintendo, and Youkai 4 is coming to the switch this year nya. Biggest issue is that the series failed in America nya. ... Nyo idea if it did well or nyot in Europe nya.

Want: 75%
Haven't played Yo-kai watch and I don't really planned to, but in all honesty this little guy is just too freaking nyadorable for me to say nyo to nya! Let me bully it nyaaaa!

Nyominations
Isabelle: x5

 

[colder_than_ice]

Jibanyan
Chance: 25% - I actually consider him one of the more likely third party characters. Yokai Watch at it’s peak was culture phenomenon that few Video Games in history have managed to match. It’s also a little misleading to claim Yokai Watch was only succesful in Japan, as it actually gained quite a following in some non-english speaking European countries such as France and Spain.

Although it’s true that it’s no longer in its peak, the same can be said for the majority of third party characters at the time they were selected for Smash (most notably Mega Man).

Want: 40% - I have mixed feelings about this. On one hand, I thought Yokai Watch the game was rather boring. On the other hand, I think Jibanyan is a cool character with a unique concept.

Nominations: New story mode x5

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Double abstain

Cranky x3
Kamek x2

 

[chemo]

Jibanyan

Chance: 5%

Going in I was going to put up a 25%, due to initially thinking that Yo-Kai Watch is still mega-popular in Japan despite the issues it has finding an audience overseas. However, after looking through this thread and doing a quick Google search on the topic of the franchise losing steam in its home country, I cut my expectations down. Still, there may be a push from Level-5 or something to include Jibanyan so who knows.

Want: Abstain

Literally my only experience with the franchise is demoing the first game at a Best Buy and watching a single episode of the Anime. I simply have nowhere near enough experience to make a good judgment.

Prediction:

Marx
Chance: 35%
Want: 60%

Nomination:

Banjo & Kazooie x5

 

[Deleted member]

Jibanyan

Chance: 3%
3rd parties are already a lot more unlikely than not. Throw in Yokai Watch's failing popularity in Japan and poor Western reception, and I doubt the guy has much of a chance. It's not like Yokai Watch even has a well established history either, so Sakurai probably would be hesitant to add Jibanyan in the first place, and that's only if he was willing to look past the series's issues with Western markets to begin with (which seems even more prevalent of an issue given that we're talking about a 3rd party).

Want: 0%

Marx Prediction: 8.64%

Nominating Isabelle x5

 

[Ura]

That Pokemon Thing



Chance: 35%

I think YKW is a sleeper when it comes to chances. While it never really caught on in the West it's still a huge deal in Japan. I wouldn't be shocked if that character got in.

Want: Abstain

Don't know anything about this series.

Prediction: Marx

Chance: 11%
Want: 33.5%

Nominations

Concept: Advance Wars CO X 3
Mike Jones X 2

 

[AvionFinch]

Dead Cat

Chance: 10%

Dwindling popularity in Japan, and never quite made a splash in the West. The only way I can see it happening is if Yokai Watch 4 blows up and does well in the West we might get Jibanyan as DLC. If we get a Level 5 rep it will be Layton, and that alone is a pretty big if.

Want: 30%

Eh. No real opinion, but there are quite a few third parties I'd rather see.

Marx Prediction: 20% chance / 46% want

Nominate: Concept: Core Crystal Item (basically AT/pokeball for blades from XC2) x 5

 

[Kotor]

Jibanyan

Chance: 5%
Want: 0%

The idea of calling Yokai Watch the "Pokemon Killer" is laughable. I'm well aware of it's popularity in Japan, but what about internationally? I never met anyone calling the series a threat to Pokemon in the United States. It was just there. Will it remain popular in Japan once we get the new Pokemon game on Switch? I see it dying internationally though.

Nominations
Concept: Marth and Roy get their English VAs x5

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Jibanyan
Chance: 25% - His popularity was piquing when the roster was decided. So as far as third party icons go, his exclusivity and popularity were important at the time.
Want: 10% - I really don't have an attachment to him.

Prediction: Marx
Chance: 13.91%
Want: 37.82%

Nominations:
Sora x5

 

[Organization XIII]

Chance: 4%
While it's pretty big in Japan it's pretty minuscule everywhere else and while that worked for FE this is third party.

Want:0%
Yokai Watch is terrible

noms: Tethu X5

Prediction: Marx-14%

 

[Smasher 101]

Jibanyan

longer post today whoops

Chance: 25%

I might be in the minority here, but I honestly think there's a pretty good chance that Level 5 is going to get something this time. They have a very close relationship with Nintendo, with two notable series that have been successes on the handhelds. Both characters have their fans, and I'm sure it'd be easy to license them. I can never be too confident on new third party franchises, but I'd say getting someone from Level 5 is a bit more likely than not.

If they do get someone it's going to be either Jibanyan or Layton 100%. On Jibanyan himself, he is the more recent one of the two and the games had a lot of promotion. Plus Yo-kai Watch was huge in Japan at one point even if it's no longer at its peak, which I don't think should be underestimated. And I imagine it was still stronger around the time when the roster was worked on anyway. That said, his one obstacle is that Yo-kai Watch never did as well in the west despite the promotion, which does hurt him. And then there is the other Level 5 character, Layton, whose series has been around a while longer than Yo-kai Watch, and has fared pretty well outside Japan, being Level 5's most successful series overall. So looking at both Layton would probably be their pick, but Yo-kai Watch definitely has some things going for it, so I wouldn't count Jibanyan out quite yet.

Want: 80%

While not among my most wanted I'd be fine with Jibanyan's inclusion. I can understand the dislike (I mainly nominated him because I was interested in his chance score anyway), but I played the first Yo-kai Watch and liked it enough, and I think Jibanyan has a lot of potential to be a fun fighter. I do generally like my third parties a little more iconic than this, but like Layton I associate him so much with Nintendo anyway so it doesn't bother me.

Marx prediction: 21.35%

Nominations: Banjo & Kazooie x5

 

[Rockaphin]

Jibanyan:

Chance: 20%

Want: 1%

Nominations:
Ken Alt Costume For Ryu x3
Snorlax x2

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Jibanyan
Chance: 25%
Funny thing, before reading this topic and looking it up, I actually thought Yo-kai Watch was 1st party in the same vein as Xenoblade (developed by a 3rd party, but IP owned by Nintendo). Looks like that's wrong, though.

Buuut I still think Jibanyan stands a decent chance. It was pretty popular in Japan and while it didn't exactly make waves elsewhere, the games still got released outside Japan.

Want: 40%
I've played the first two games and enjoyed them both, though they aren't outstanding. Jibanyan wouldn't be my personal choice for a Yo-kai Watch rep, but he'd obviously be the first one in, and that would be fine. Can't say I'd be sad if he wasn't in, though.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Not Pikachu

Chance: 20%
Want: 0%

I wasn’t really a fan when this ‘Pokémon Killer’ was announced, and it seems to be DOA everywhere outside Japan.

Good relationship with Nintendo and strong fanbase in Japan definitely give it visibility, but so far all vanilla 3rd parties have been blockbuster icons, not localized flashes-in-the-pan. Maybe DLC, but I don't see base game.

But Sakurai suprises me constantly.

The design would fit well enough, but the advertising of this as a destroyer of my childhood put a bit of a bad taste in my mouth. Plus, from what I hear, it was simultaneously too much of a copy and too different.

Prediction for Marx: 19.4%
Nomination: Skyrim representation x5

 

[CrusherMania1592]

Jibanyan


Chances: 20%
Want: 63%


Prediction for Marx: 21.4%

Nominations: Zeraora x5

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Jibanyan
Chance: 5%
He just doesn't have the worldwide appeal a third party needs. Maybe the roster was finalized while the series was booming and that's how he can make the cut, but I don't see it
Want: 35%
My want for this character has severely waned as I've kinda fallen out of the series. It'd be cool enough, but even among the Yokai there's ones I'd prefer. And if we're talking about a Level-5 character, my dream would be Endou.

Marx Prediction: 16.84%

Nominations
Endou Mamoru x4
Decloned Dark Pit x1

 

[BluePikmin11]

I am legit surprised how fair Jibanyan seems to be rated compared to Layton here.

I would have expected more pessimism going into today, but that was not the case.

 

[PeridotGX]

Filth Cat

Chance - 25%. Was huge in Japan, so it may have caught Sakurai's Eye

Want - 0%. My second least wanted character. Yo-Kai watch is a Pokémon competitor and a boring game, pretending like it's decent enough to get in Smash would only push the series forward.

Nominations: Kamek x4, Doesn't-Matter Blade x1

 

[Koopaul]

Yokai-Watch Character
Chance: 0%
Started off as a manga so it's technically not a "video game character" which I'm pretty sure is Sakurai's one requirement. That an have been on a Nintendo console. A Yokai-Watch character would completely throw out all the rules. It would mean even things like Shrek would be viable since a Shrek game came out on the Gamecube. So absolutely not.
Want: 0%
I have no interest in the series either.

Nominations:
Barbara the Bat ×5

Still backing the bat. After she gets nominated I'll leave it alone.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Jibanyan
Chance and Want: Abstain
Honestly I know so little of Yokai-Watch I don't think I can really rate today. First time I've done this ;;

Marx Prediction: 29%

Nominations:
Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner X 5

 

[Wyoming]

Jibanyan:

Chance: 10%
If this was a Nintendo character, he'd tick all the boxes. It was very popular around the time Sakurai drafted the roster, and as a "rival" of sorts of Pokemon it could be an interesting concept.

The issue is indeed its third party status. The parent company and Nintendo are on good grounds, but its lack of "legacy" per say for a guest character might harm it. Of course, Bayonetta might have opened the door to these "lesser" third parties, so who knows?

Right now I can only give it a fairly low rating, however.

Want: Abstain

Marx: 14.7%

Noms: Black Shadow x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

Yokai-Watch Character
Chance: 0%
Started off as a manga so it's technically not a "video game character" which I'm pretty sure is Sakurai's one requirement. That an have been on a Nintendo console. A Yokai-Watch character would completely throw out all the rules. It would mean even things like Shrek would be viable since a Shrek game came out on the Gamecube. So absolutely not.
Want: 0%
I have no interest in the series either.

Nominations:
Barbara the Bat ×5

Still backing the bat. After she gets nominated I'll leave it alone.

Interesting. I did not know about the manga starting before the video game in all my time as a YW fan TBH. But, I am not sure if Sakurai would look into as far of a detail as that, he would probably know Jibanyan more as a video game character than not, given the franchise's huge popularity spike when YW2 came out. The video game itself is the primary root of all the multimedia expansion in Yo-kai Watch. That has been and always has been Level-5's core strategy for marketing their games with their recent franchices like Lady Layton, Inazuma Eleven Ares, and the recent Snack World.