Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[PK_Wonder]

Nominations update tomorrow.

Eggman chance 1%
Want 35%

Predict 10%

Nom Mach Rider x5

 

[Munomario777]

Robotnik

Chance: 4%. A second Sonic character isn't super likely, and Robotnik is up there but has competition even within that.

Want: 30%. Could be neat, but there are other Sonic characters I'd rather see honestly.



Predictions

Jibanyan: 15%. Decently popular in Japan, and I hear there's a Switch game coming out?



Nominations: Blue Bowser x5

 

[Pennate]

Dr. Eggman:

Chance: 10%

Want: 65%

Nominations:
Ganon x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Dr. Ivo Eggman Robotnik

35% Chance

I might be in the minority on this but I can see us getting 1-2 new sonic characters this game. Part of this is that while Eggman would require more work, Tails and Knuckles would be relatively easy semi clones. As for shadow, well it is not 2007 anymore.

So why Eggman? Simply put he is super important to the Sonic series, arguably more so than Tails, his only rival in importance. He could have a huge unique movepool based around his mechs and badniks. Finally he is a villain, which is good when Smash lacks villains.

Some might be opposed to third parties getting more than one rep. For the most part I agree, aside from semi clones. However, due to how long Sonic has been in Smash, I think he is the exception on that regard. It would just seem more natural for Sonic to have an extra rep or two.

100% Want

Eggman hits all of my flags. He is a great character. I dare anyone to play through a Sonic game and not have a smile on their face when the doctor pops up. He is a villain, only rivaled by Bowser in his iconic nature. He would visually look great in the cast. I would bee static if we got him.


Nominating Spyro x5

Day ends 6 AM EDT, calcs will be posted in the morning

 

[Smasher 101]

Dr. Eggman

Chance: 3%

I honestly don't see it. I don't think a third party franchise getting a second character is impossible (though I wouldn't bet on it), and if it does happen I'm convinced Sonic's going to be the series that receives the extra character. Thing is, I'm also convinced that Tails will be that extra character. And sorry but I do think Knuckles and Shadow are going to fight him for the slot if Tails somehow doesn't get it, they're also iconic to the series and they seem to be more common requests. Despite how iconic of a villain he is, I don't think Eggman has much of a chance.

Want: 5%

I love Eggman, he's probably my favorite Sonic character, but ehhhhh...I don't want another Sonic character honestly. I love having some guests around but usually I'd prefer them to be special cases and as much as I like the Sonic games I'd just personally rather have one character per third party, and I'm not really interested in Eggman as a fighter regardless. 5% because I would be slightly more interested in him than Shadow or Knuckles at least.

Jibanyan prediction: 22.58%

Nominations: Banjo & Kazooie x5

 

[Lord-Zero]

Dr. Eggman

Chance: 25%

- Hey, if Capcom managed to have 2 of its characters in Smash 4, Sega could do the same. Besides, Dr. Eggman himself is pretty popular amd Smash could really use some villains.

Want: 75%

- Sure, I don’t mind him at all.

Prediction

Jibanyan: 10.5%

- While Yokai Watch isn’t really a Pokemon “killer”, it has a following in the west and its mascot Jibanyan is still pretty popular.

Nominations

Katrielle Layton (Professor Layton) x5
Black Shadow x5

 

[CatRaccoonBL]

Dr. eggman
chance 10%
The same precent I give every third party. Because they are too hard to predict.

Want: 45%
He is one my favorite sonic character so I wouldn't mind.

Nominations:
Veronica (Fire Emblem) x5

 

[AvionFinch]

Get a load of this!

Chance: 30%

One of THE most iconic video game villains, Eggman is one of the most likely choices for a second Sonic character, although there is some competition there, I feel he just edges the others on sheer iconicness. Unless they go for Tails or Knuckles as a somewhat easier semi clone. Of course he's also competing with other Sega characters, and third parties in general.

Want: 68%

Eggman is my favorite Sonic character, granted I've barely played the games so my feelings aren't too strong, but man, the idea of having Bowser, Ganondorf, and Eggman going at it is really awesome.

Jibanyan prediction: 13% chance / 28% want

Nominate: Quote x 5

 

[kylexv]

Dr. Egg Guy:

Chance: 10%

A third party series probably won't get a second character, but since Eggman is one of the most iconic video game villains ever, you never know.

Want: 35%

If Sonic will get a new character, I want it to be Eggman. Probably has the most unique out of him out of all the Sonic characters and is another villain.

Nominations:
Dark Matter x3
Geno x2

 

[MrElectroG64]

Dr. Eggman

Chance: 10%
If any Third-Party series were to get a second rep, it'd be Sonic. Dr. Eggman is by far one of the most iconic villains in all of gaming. He has tons of robotics and machinery at his disposal. The only problem, it would be pretty unprecedented for the afore mentioned reason.

Want: 20%
I'm not exactly dying to play as him, as my favorite Sonic character is Metal Sonic, but I'd honestly go out on a limb and say I'd rather play as Robotnik, purely since Metal Sonic probably couldn't be anything more than a Semi-clone. I could see him working similarly to Bowser Jr., in that he sits in his Eggmobile at all times and lets it do a vast majority of the attacks.


Nominations: Fawful x5

 

[Basty]

Dr. Robotnik

Chance: 60%
I see him more likely than unlikely. Sonic deserves a second rep at this point and of all the possible characters, Robotnik is the most unique. In the past Sakurai has gone against the most popular character (ie Robin over Chrom) for someone more unique.

Want: 100%
I love the guy, by far my favourite Sonic character and if he got in I would be extremely happy.

Jinbanyan: 14%

Dr Kawashima x5

 

[SneakDuckens]

Dr. Eggman

Chance: 4%

Want: 12%

Tails x5

 

[NintenRob]

Eggman
Double 0%
I don't see Sonic getting a second character, and if he did, it would be Tails. Even Knuckles might have priority

Nominate Lara Croft x5 (is she over 30 yet?)

Prediction
Jimbanyan 13%

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Good time to post this, I see.

The E.G.G.M.A.N.
Chance: 6% - Sonic is certainly a big enough series that it could get multiple characters, and being the main antagonist, he's one of the only three characters I see possible for the spot - along with Tails (most likely) and Knuckles (least likely)
Want: 30% -Provided we get a few third parties (Tails included), I'd be totally fine with him making an appearance. But he'd need to use a mech of some variety to feel unique.

Prediction: Jibanyan
Chance: 40.72%
Want: 50.43%

Nominations:
Sora x5

 

[andimidna]

?

The last version had her at 123, and the one before that had her at 67 being 30 and 20 percent off the top 10s respectively. . .


anyyyyyway
E.G.G.M.A.N.
Robotnik is one of he biggest villains in gaming, being the rival of one of the biggest characters in gaming. That alone is a pretty big pedigree that would probably put him in contention. If any third party villain comes to smash it would probably be this guy. He has the history without a doubt. But I could see an issue with him becoming playable. Mechs like the one from Adventure 2 would probably be realy awkward to be playable. Not to mention size issues lol. And it's harder to size down a mech when that means crushing the egg inside lol. There may also be competition from the other Sonic characters like the ever-so-popular Tails and characters like Knuckles and shadow. Those 3 managed to get representation as mii costumes or ATs, unlike the good doctor. So he may just not be in Sakurai's head, or it may just be a coincidence because he doesn't fit those roles. Not to mention, after Bowser Jr that would mean 2 mech fighters and that may take away something. Of course there is still plenty to do with mechs but something to keep in mind.

I would put him as a contender at the very least. Not super likely (IMO third parties are an awkward prediction in the first place) but one to at the very least keep an eye on. And I dont see any reason to believe we cant get 2 sonic characters, just like we couldnt get two SEGA/Capcom characters. Not really worth bringing up but oh well


Would need to see him in action first. Depending on how he plays I may love or hate him. I like Sonic games and all but I dont really have any desire to see anyone from the games playable in smash other than maybe Omega lol

noms Elmax5

Hmm, no clue what you’re talking about. Maybe the confusion is that I was only considering newcomers that hadn’t been confirmed by the end. I just went back and looked up the old thread, and she’s actually on the front page as the 9th most wanted character. So I actually undersold it
Maybe you’re talking about some sort of dlc thread?

This was her peak, probably pre-Robin:
“Anna (Fire Emblem): DAY 226: (10.94% chance, 59.76% want)”

 

[ShinyRegice]

man

Dr. Eggman chances: 14%
One single third-party series getting more than one playable representative is completely unprecedented for now, but I don't think is impossible. He's a pretty popular and iconic villain and arguably the most unique choice for another Sonic character. On the other hand he probably overlaps in concept with Bowser Jr.

Dr. Eggman want: 52%
Honestly it sounds cool, and probably the only potential new character from a third-party series which already has a playable representative I would imagine myself being excited over. But some of his appeal overlaps with King K. Rool which I'd rather have, preventing me to go higher.

Jibanyan prediction: 21.06%

Nominating:
Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x5

 

[ProfPeanut]

Eggman

Chance: 4%
Statistically speaking, there's no one more important to the Sonic franchise than Eggman, barring Sonic himself. He shows up in almost every title that the hedgehog does, and instigates almost every plot.

But Smash has yet to double-dip into its guest franchises, and when there's so many 3rd-party characters to already consider, it seems kind of illogical to send an invite to even Eggman. For all intents and purposes, Sonic isn't an honorary Nintendo character, so he doesn't exactly warrant additional representation beyond the hedgehog himself.

Want: 10%
Not the worst choice in the world, and I might argue that I'd rather see him than one of Sonic's allies. But I'm also rooting for the "wide" approach to 3rd-parties, which means I'd rather see the inclusion of new franchises instead over consolidating the ones that already agreed to join in.


Prediction:
Jibanyan: 33%

Nominations:
Viridi 5x

 

[skylanders fan]

eggman
chance 25%
just see other sonic characters having a better shot

want 50%
meh either way works for me

 

[A Distant Demon]

Hmm, no clue what you’re talking about. Maybe the confusion is that I was only considering newcomers that hadn’t been confirmed by the end. I just went back and looked up the old thread, and she’s actually on the front page as the 9th most wanted character. So I actually undersold it
Maybe you’re talking about some sort of dlc thread?

This was her peak, probably pre-Robin:
“Anna (Fire Emblem): DAY 226: (10.94% chance, 59.76% want)”

there have been 2 threads since pre-robin

So if you meant the pre-3ds release rtc that's not exactly the last versiin of this thread

will do writings when not in class

 

[Rockaphin]

Eggman:

Chance: 8%

Want: 35%

I think Eggman would be pretty cool as a character, but I believe he'd make a fantastic Assist Trophy or Stage Hazard. Besides, I'd personally rather see Knuckles, Chaos, or Metal Sonic before Eggman.

Nominations:
Ken Masters Alt Costume for Ryu x4
Snorlax x1

 

[ikke471]

Eggman

Chance 5%

While he's a staple character I don't think he'll get added over the likes of Tails, Knuckles or Shadown

Want 50%

I'd be down with this character!

 

[fogbadge]

dr eggman

chances: 10% i dont see it happening

want: 80% id love it, but id want tails first

 

[VexTheHex]

Next day should already be under way?

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Just a friendly warning, the OP already said the next day officially starts when he announces it, and he won't count scores that jump the gun.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ok so I just woke up calcs incoming soon.

 

[Skyblade12]

Ok so I just woke up calcs incoming soon.

Has the new day started?

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ok since I am still doing calcs stuff came up. I’m gonna start Jibanyans day. Please rate Jibanyan and predict Marx.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Many of the things I said back in Layton’s chance analysis applies to Jibanyan as well. This character likely ranked top 5 in the ballot for the Japan region, already carries game history with YW’s major multimedia impact in Japan, is part of a 3rd-party company that are highly open for collaborations (For multiple examples), and has moveset potential with Jibanyan’s odd abilities as a youkai. The only obstacle Jibanyan has is Layton being possibly chosen over Jibanyan due to bigger global recognizability. There is definitely room for Layton and Jibanyan to be playable, but that ultimately depends on Sakurai and if he finds very good gameplay potential of both to negotiate the two characters from Level-5.

Rating that possibility is a gamble though. But one thing is for certain for me: Layton will be a frontrunner for a playable Level-5 candidate before Jibanyan is put in consideration. Even with things favoring Layton more, I would not underestimate Jibanyan’s chances because of the recent franchise stagnation. Right around early 2016, Yo-kai Watch was still at its prime popularity in Japan for Sakurai to see him as a notable Smash candidate at the time before the decline in 2017 came. I would say Jibanyan has a good shot at getting in, but it is up to Sakurai how far he wants to go in Level-5 representation.

x5 Sora

 

[WingedSupernova]

Jibanyan
Chance - 20%
Never underestimate the power of Japan popularity
Want - 0%
Wouldn't care at all if he was added

Marx prediction - Chance: 5.86%
Bandana Dee's hype will slaughter his chances, even if I don't want it to.

 

[TumblrFamous]

Jibanyan

Chance: 2%
He kind of seems like scraping at bottom of the barrel in terms of third parties. Layton, Banjo, Crash, Rayman, even Sora I feel have a one-up on him. Unless Sakurai decides to add like 10 new third party characters, don't count on it.

Want: 0%
Do not care the slightest about this character.

Marx Prediction: 14.7%

Nominations: Sora x5

 

[NeonBurrito]

Jibanyan

Chance - 2%

He was super popular in Japan for a while, wasn't he? I remember people saying that he'd be the Pokemon killer, ala Digimon in the early 2000s (both clearly didn't kill Pokemon, but regardless). I remember Nintendo pushing it really hard in a direct, even doing some skits for it. Although the Yokai Watch has really died off hard in the past few years, from what I understand.

I don't really know. I think his lack of worldwide relevancy and the fact that his franchise has fallen off fairly hard in the past few years really hold him back.

Want - 0%

I don't want third party characters who aren't iconic in Smash Bros.

Nominations:
Sora (Kingdom Hearts) x5

 

[AlphaSSB]

Jibanyan

Chance: 5% - Popular in Japan, but doesn't seem huge really anywhere else. Possible, but still very unlikely.

Want: 0% - No interest whatsoever.

Nominations: New Story Mode x5

 

[fogbadge]

jibanyan

chamces: 40% i dont think its likely but its seems like the kind of thing theyd do

want: 75% i do love yo-kai watch but id much rather he was in a team with nate and whisper

 

[RouffWestie]

Jibanyan

Chance: 1%

Want: 0%

Nominations: Arle Nadja x5

 

[Opossum]

Jibanyan

Chance - 5%
Sakurai goes for third parties with worldwide appeal, while Yokai Watch kind of died on arrival outside of Japan. Ironic for something touted as "the Pokémon killer." It kinda just went the way of something like Beyblade or Bakugan.

Want - 0%
Tried the demo for Yokai Watch and hated it. Plus most of the designs in those games are awful, uninspired (to the point of having literal recolors), or both. If Level 5 had to get someone, give us Layton instead, please.

Predicting a 16.5 for Marx

Nominating Marth Gets His English Voice x5

 

[skylanders fan]

Jibanyan
chance 10%
big in Japan but unperformed in US

want 2%
no need tbh

 

[Aetheri]

Jibanyan

Chance: 10%
Yokai Watch was huge when it first released in Japan...but the monentum quickly died off since it never really caught as much as Pokemon did when it came to the west...
This makes it somewhat difficult to judge the chances of a character coming to Smash since Smash generally focuses on Japanese IPs, but yet Sakurai still keeps the western audiences very much in mind when it comes to adding characters...
Being third party also means there's a few extra hoops to go through not to mention YKW's company also has Layton who arguably is much more requested for Smash...

Want: 5%
I played the demo for Yokai Watch and it never really clicked with me...it was sort of in this awkward middle ground that made feel both too different and too similar to Pokemon...
As for Jibanyan in Smash...well meh...

Marx-14.85%

Dark Samus x5

 

[NintenRob]

Jabanyan 4%
Very new for a third party and while big in Japan, it didn't really take off overseas
Want 0%

Nominate Lara Croft x5

Prediction Marx 9%

 

[slambros]

Jibanyan

Chance: 20%
Yokai Watch is a growing phenomenon, and Nintendo has a great relationship with Level-5.

Want: 50%
We need more characters like Jibanyan but I'm not well acquainted with his series.

Nominations:
Elma x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Jibanyan

Chance: 45%

Certainly possible, tho YW might just not have enough international appeal to be repped. I can see him showing up in the game in some way however, like as an assist trophy.

Want: 20%

Meh, not really interested in Yokai Watch.

Predictions for Marx: 9.79%

Nominations: Hades x5