Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[WeirdChillFever]

The Idol Inferior to All other idol characters I know
Chance: 1%
Not Tracer, and while they could do an ARMS thing, Overwatch then has a cast full of beloved characters that could join. Besides that, Overwatch has no real demand to make it and is a western third party, which have historically been not the most likely of archetypes.

Want: 20%
ActiBlizz issues aside, I don’t think her playstyle works well in Smash.

Captain Not-Cuttlefish
Chance: 1%
I sorta get the idea to try to nominate a Pikmin rep after Louie was collectively shot down for not really being in Pikmin 3. Captain Charlie seems like a decent enough pick. He already features in Smash Ultimate as a Master Spirit of the Explorer type along with his fellow frontrunners Toadette and Linebeck so he’s got that going for him, along with a general and distinct lack of Pikmin characters, both overall and in Smash.

The problem with Louie wasn’t exactly Pikmin 3 though. it’s that Pikmin is in the mad awkward position where its protagonists (including the one from Pikmin 3) are tied to eachother as alts and that the other characters aren’t clamored for or have much that makes them stand out and they’re all just fighting for a spot as Olimar derivative, an option not too enticing for the DLC of it all.

Want: 5%
Just gimme a Bulborb man. The Pikmin captain that made it in Smash already plays like tuberculosis on a joystick so from now on just get the actually good designs in there. There’s so many fun mook designs in Pikmin, why not tap into that? Any other combination of Captains can join Olimar at the bottom of my most-played list as Echoes.

I do irrationally like the Master Spirits so five percent comes from that. I think they’re a neat gang together.

Kraid Cuttlefish
Chance: 1%
Wowie we’re really hamming up on the rep-thing today aren’t we? Yes, Metroid is big and recent and all that, but Kraid does have the same issues as Ridley without much of the errr mitigating circumstances of errr gentle fan feedback to try to make it work. I do think it’s possible though, but maybe that’s wishful thinking

Want: 80%
I think it would just be so funny, and Kraid is no slouch when it comes to appearances so it wouldn’t feel random for the sake of being random. They can definitely ham up his moveset if his belly-platforms act as platforms to fix what would probably be a low mobility. I think his design is neat and I again kinda dig the Master Spirits. He’s just a lad.

 

[BowserKing]

D.Va
Chance: 1%. She is from a very popular game, and chances are Tracer is more likely. Plus with one slot left, it’s a difficult goal for her and many other Overwatch characters.
Want: 50%. She would be fun to play as however. Overall, she would make a decent Smash Bros rep.
Charlie
Chance: 1%. While Pikmin has popularity on it’s side, the chance of Charlie being playable is very low, due to there being only one slot. But many unlickly thing she happened before.
Want: 50%. He would be fun to play as however. Overall, he would make a decent Smash Bros rep.
Kraid
Chance: 0%. It’s not because of size issues, since he was a lot smaller in the first Metroid. It’s because he appeared in the Brinstar Depths Stage, discomfirming him as a result.
Want: 50%. He would be fun to play as however, and I can see him, Ridley and Dark Samus have a free for all. Overall, he would make a decent Smash Bros rep.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

Kraid
Chance: 0%. It’s not because of size issues, since he was a lot smaller in the first Metroid. It’s because he appeared in the Brinstar Depths Stage, discomfirming him as a result.

Alfonzo replaces him, "leave it to me".

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Davinki
Chance: 0%
Ignoring all the controversial Activision/Blizzard stuff that happened recently, wouldn't they just go for Tracer if they wanted an OW rep? I suppose they can squeeze an Arms situation out of it but at the same time Tracer would not be in Spring Man's situation for multiple reasons, nor would Dva be in Min Min's. Let's not forget we don't get western third-party characters often and if the pass does end with one it has to be someone special to Nintendo. Overwatch on Switch didn't do so hot from what I've heard and it probably released to late anyway, so I don't view it as special.

Want: 0%
Yeah, this would be awkward and kind of a disaster really. Talk about bad timing. Trust in Activision/Blizzard might as well be the lowests it's ever been right now, so ending things of with a Overwatch rep I'd imagine be some really bad PR. Of course, you can say the same for Crash Bandicoot but Overwatch and especially Dva are not anywhere near his level in terms of support and general reception to their series. Crash would be something most people would slide, Dva would not.

Another Nintendo character that got canonically vored
Chance: 0%
I just see nothing here. Alph is an Olimar alt so what would Charlie bring to the table that he couldn't? We aren't getting echoes in any case and Pikmin 3 already has a stage. What content would come with him? How would he be unique? How would he be worth 4.99? In all honesty, I view this as a universal problem with Pikmin in Smash, pretty much all the captains can be made Olimar alts. Not that he can't get an echo-fighter next game but that would make more sense for Alph or Louie, not Charlie.

Want: 0%
Nothing against the dude. I like the Pikmin 3 cast fine enough but again I don't see anything here that would make the money worth it. Not in a moveset or anything else in the pack. It's like the opposite of Dr. Eggman.

Hecking Chonker
Chance: 0%
He's so gigantic, there's a whole stage in the game where he interacts with it. You can't really Alfonzo that. This would probably look too rediculous to Sakurai for him to go with it. There's little reason for Nintendo to do this too since basically everyone is already satisfied enough with the Metroid representation in this game. He lacks the decades worth of fan demand and if they just want to shill Dread some more there are more fitting characters to do that with.

Want: Abstaining

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

D.Va

Chance: 1% - Western third party, which already hurts her chances, especially for the last slot. There IS the factor that FP11 and Kazuya were switched so an E3/Big Event-only character could slip through the cracks, but it's still a push to assume that a western character would be last. Alongside that, competition within her own company's a huge issue. Not only is Overwatch currently nowhere near as popular as it once was, there's the rising and ever popular Crash Bandicoot in the way, and even within Overwatch there's Tracer (the big mascot) and Doomfist (the story is centered around him). While I CAN see her pulling a Min Min (due to her heavy popularity) I just don't see the wiggle room for it for a western third party. Overwatch's lack of popularity in Japan isn't doing her any favors either.

Want: 30% - I wouldn't mind too much, and I'd certainly pick her over Sakura. Plus I'm always down for more Western characters in Smash (Activision/Blizzard controversy notwithstanding, the character shouldn't suffer for the sins of their owner). Still, I really don't want getting Spring Man'd to become a reoccurring thing, and even then D.Va isn't my favorite. If we get a rep, it should be the aforementioned Tracer or Doomfist. And if I were given choice of an Overwatch rep, I'd personally go with Winston. So definitely has some draws but at the same time would not be my first choice.


Kraid

Chance: 5% - Definitely a distinct possibility! Nintendo's banking hard on Dread, and Kraid will probably play some kind of role in it. Still, I can't give him a higher score for two reasons. First, his size. Ridley was able to break that barrier because there was a human-sized version that Sakurai was able to use as a base, even if it isn't as well known as his larger form. Kraid doesn't have this, and he's even bigger than Ridley was. Second, his franchise. Nintendo may opt for a newer Metroid character to better shill Dread, E.M.M.I. perhaps.. Also, Sakurai may decide that there's "enough" new Metroid representation for this game (so many series would kill for both a new echo and rep, even if Samus had to ride solo for almost 20 years). And Kraid is no Ridley in terms of fan demand either. Still, definitely leaving the door open.

Abstaining on Want, though I will say I like this idea more than E.M.M.I. The robot's SUPER cool, but I do prefer a more seasoned rep than the "I'm new! SHILL ME!!!" characters.


Captain Charlie

Chance: 5% - The man of the hour! Now, here's the meat and potatoes, the context of why I nominated him. I originally nominated Charlie when the Bonus Character Theory was still alive and well. Charlie would've worked for this for several reasons! First, this character likely would've been decided on later than FP2, which would've left time for Nintendo to see Pikmin 3 Deluxe's success, especially if they left the character undecided until a little later (and a first party character, especially 100% Nintendo-owned and requiring no other parties to work with, this can be afforded). Second, he'd definitely share some moves with Olimar, so development would've been very easy. And third, said bonus character likely wouldn't be a challenger pack with a stage, music, and spirits. There's plenty of Pikmin 3 content in Smash already so Captain Charlie fits right in!

Sadly, now that said theory is a thing of the past, let's look at Charlie's current circumstances. His chances would hinge a lot on what Louie's are, if Nintendo left the last slot as a first party wildcard to decide on later. He also plays a bigger role in Pikmin 3 originally than Louie does. I know some will cite that Brittany is more popular, but as someone who knows the ins and outs of the Pikmin fandom I can tell you that this is not the case. Pikmin as a franchise doesn't really have a "waifu" culture that would inflate Brittany's influence. So it likely come down to role in the plot, and being the Captain of the crew I think Charlie would come out on top. Still, even through all of that, I don't has as much confidence in Charlie unless either the Louie gambit happens or he ends up being a Miyamoto special request ala Pac Man. There's also the factor of his master spirit, which plays a more sizable role in World of Light (and as a fun note, his spirit activity is diving into caves for treasure, which ironically would've made more sense for Louie as not only is spelunking a MAJOR feature of Pikmin 2 but it even plays the Pikmin 2 map remix in the menu XD)

Want: 100% - I'm ALWAYS down for more Pikmin reps, and Charlie was by far my favorite Pikmin 3 character! And while I wouldn't choose him over Louie (especially since Pikmin 2 needs the challenger pack content way more than 3 does) I would still be extremely happy if he made the roster! The guy's a former space ranger, and there are other Pikmin player mechanics such as sprays and bomb rocks that Olimar doesn't cover at all, alongside the factor of Rock Pikmin. Implied to be his favorite Pikmin type, these Pikmin could easily deal damage on impact like in-game (not as strong as the Purples, but could be thrown the normal distance in Smash), along with being great at damaging shields (in-game Rock Pikmin are known for breaking down glass barricades). These Pikmin could be overall much sturdier than normal Pikmin (while being balanced by a lack of elemental immunities) and promote more of a "stonewall general" playstyle for Charlie. Give him a whole squad of them and make him a little heavier, and it'd already make a big difference! Charlie in lore is also confident in his ability to fight up-close, so more hand-to-hand moves in his A moves to replace a lot of the Pikmin-swinging Olimar does, though retaining Olimar's Smashes. His grabs would also be hand-to-hand since Rock Pikmin cannot latch to objects or enemies. One could also change his specials up a bit!

Side Special: Pikmin Charge - While Charlie can throw Pikmin just like Olimar, instead we'll do a Pikmin Charge for Charlie's side special. Every Rock Pikmin charges forward and smacks the opponent (three hits) before coming back to Charlie, to reference Pikmin 3's charge mechanic.

Down Special: Bomb-Rock Toss - Every Rock Pikmin plucks a bomb rock and runs in front of Charlie, tossing them in a forward arch, which explode on contact with the ground. This references how all Pikmin types can carry bomb rocks in Pikmin 3. It also gives Charlie a non-sacrificial projectile to harass off-stage opponents with,

Up Special: Captain Toss - Brittany appears, held up by Winged Pikmin if in the air and quickly picks Charlie up, tossing him in an upwards arch before disappearing, referencing the ability to pick up and toss captains in Pikmin 3. The ascending part of the move acts as an attack, but Charlie is vulnerable on the descent. A versitile recovery move and a good option for escaping an opponent or group (remember, Smash is still a party game by intention) if need be!

Really, you can easily get creative with him, and if people can think that the Octolings are a valuable CP11, then Charlie certainly has that right, too! Giving Charlie access to stuff that Olimar didn't cover would more than make up for the design similarities!

Alph is an Olimar alt so what would Charlie bring to the table that he couldn't?

Charlie would be a separate character with moveset differences. Alph is literally just a model swap (he should've at least been given his voice, though!)

 

[WeirdChillFever]

inflate Brittany

now we’re talking!

Really, you can easily get creative with him, and if people can think that the Octolings are a valuable CP11, then Charlie certainly has that right, too! Giving Charlie access to stuff that Olimar didn't cover would more than make up for the design similarities!

Charlie would be a separate character with moveset differences. Alph is literally just a model swap (he should've at least been given his voice, though!)

How many moveset differences do you imagine him to have? I know Louie had a Bugmaster thing going for him that could definitely have him escape clone status but how far from Olimar could you feasibly get Charlie, or would he be derivative by default?

 

[GoodGrief741]

I missed yesterday but I want to give my thoughts on the pair all the same, as one is the only realistic candidate we're rating this week and the other I helped nominate.

Spoiler: The cutest mad scientists

Eggman

Chance:
Sega is in a good spot for the final rep. Lots of good candidates and Eggman is one of them. Iconic as all hell and always relevant, especially now that Sonic is bigger than ever. We know they'll go for a character in a repped third party franchise if they're a big deal. I think we wins out over the likes of Tails because of how different he'd be from Sonic. Really the only question is whether Nintendo would want a new Sega franchise or if they would finally double down on Sonic; it's worth pointing out that there's a tendency to go for hot new characters for Sega, and Sonic has gone over a decade with pathetic representation, which might be indicative of their priorities.

Want: 100%

Penny

Chance: 1%
As I explained yesterday, because of how close CP11's reveal is to Dread's release, I don't think we'll get a promotional character unless it's from Dread, and Penny would definitely be one. Plus it's unlikely that she'd be chosen to represent GIT over the likes of Mona and Ashley.

Want: 100%
She wasn't on my radar but she's really grown on me with Gold and I imagine that'll continue with GIT. She's a really likable character and like anyone in WarioWare shed probably be fun in Smash. At this point I'd take anyone from WW

D.va

Double zeroes. We're obviously not getting an Overwatch character, or really any Activision character at this point. That ship sailed with E3. Even if we did get an Overwatch character I don't see why it wouldn't be Tracer. That's fine by me too as Tracer is a really cool character and D.Va is just fine.

Captain Charlie

Double zeroes. Pikmin 3 came too late for Pikmin to get a promotional pick and I don't see why they'd get a character at this junction without the power of shilling. Plus, why Charlie? We'd get Alph promoted from alt sooner than him. Or Louie who could actually be unique.

Charlie's a funny character though he's my least favorite captain in the trilogy (though that's moreso a testament to how great the writing and characters are than anything against Charlie). Moveset wise I don't see what he would bring that another more deserving character couldn't. So yeah no need to see him in Smash.

Kraid

Chance: 7%
He could be our Dread pick! There might be other, more appropriate picks, but he has seniority. People love Kraid, and he has always been the number 2 to Ridley, so maybe this is his time?

Size might be an issue but I can imagine a timeline where he gets downsized, so there's my stance on this non-controversy I guess.

Want: 90%
Ngl I kinda wanna see just how they'd make him work. And of course Dread hype. But unlike Dread debuting characters Kraid existed before and I didn't give him the time of day, so I'm aware of the hypocrisy in wanting him now which does make my want wane. EMMIs are cooler too

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

How many moveset differences do you imagine him to have? I know Louie had a Bugmaster thing going for him that could definitely have him escape clone status but how far from Olimar could you feasibly get Charlie, or would he be derivative by default?

I just updated my rating a bit, giving Charlie a couple of changes to his specials as examples of how to make him unique and fundamentally change how he plays in comparison to Olimar.

 

[NintenRob]

Kraid would be a bit weird given he already plays such a significant role in Brinstar Depths. Also, he just doesn't come across as character material. His role in the series is to be a boss and nothing more, he doesn't have the significance Ridley has. Also his size, unlike Ridley, being the biggest boss kinda IS his thing. Also also, I'd rather have the Chozo Warrior from Dread, I wish we were rating it.

Double 0

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Well it's been a very long ride, but we are now at our final character chance/want day before Ultimate ends. It's been a blast doing this with everyone, but all good things must come to an end.

With that said, here are the final characters for you to rate:

One of these is not like the others​

Rate Sora from Kingdom Hearts, Joe Random from MLB: The Show, and Concept: Crazy Taxi rep.

This day consists of one of the biggest names in Smash speculation, a meme pick, and a concept that isn't talked about a lot but can be seen as a potential surprise pick. I can't think of a more fitting finale for RTC.

Megadoomer

-----

As a reminder, this day will only last about 24 hours so get your thoughts in while you can. 2 sentences minimum for both chance and want per character in order for your scores to be tallied into the overall average.

Tomorrow we will be doing predictions for Tuesday's final character reveal. Who will the final character? What costumes will they come with? Start thinking of what will unfold in 2 days soon so you can post your predictions here on Monday.

Keep in mind that even after CP11 is revealed, we won't be done with this thread yet. We will still have lots of days to do such as CP11 satisfaction scores, rerates of all of the Ultimate newcomers, reflecting on RTC, etc.

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Final Music Post

Looks like this will be the last time I gather songs for a while, so enjoy 3 vocal tracks relating to today's characters.

Spoiler: FINAL MUSIC POST

 

[DanganZilla5]

John Doe

Chance: 0%

Lmao. Just when I thought we rated every single dumb character, here comes another one for the ***** and giggles. This one gave me a good laugh. There is no way this is happening. Even though Joe Random is technically an original character so he is eligible, I can't see a realistic basketball game mostly featuring real people being a candidate for Smash. It would certainly be an issue for the spirit board and frankly I would be surprised if this was on Nintendo's radar.

Want: 0%

I would have given this some points for being a sports game rep, but I don't care enough about sports, let alone sports games, to give this score some mercy. This would certainly be a very odd choice and it's too close to 4th party territory for me to be comfortable with it in Smash.

________________________________

Because I'm craazzyyy!!

Chance: 0%

Crazy Taxi is an iconic arcade game that was very successful to the point of it getting a bunch of ports and sequels. It's a beloved title, but unfortunately there hasn't been a brand new game since 2014 and that was a mobile game. There's also the issue of who or what the rep would be. The whole point of the game is to drive customers to their destinations. That leaves us with two options: Either they could make this another Captain Falcon situation, or they could literally make the taxi itself playable. Both cases are very unlikely for different reasons. Not to mention this series is owned by Sega, who has a bunch of other characters that would have a much easier time being translated into Smash.

Want: 1%

I like Crazy Taxi, it's very goofy and fun. But at the most, it works out best as either a stage or assist trophy. I don't think this is fighter material and while I would like to see them try, I would need to see it in action to be convinced.

____________________________________

Simple and Clean is the way that you make me feel.....

Chance: 5%

I don't think Sephiroth hurts his chances too much. Guys, Sora is Disney, not Square. Yes, they would still have to talk to Square but Disney is still the copyright holder. So this ain't my main issue. My issue is that I find it hard to believe that they would save Sora for last. He's arguably the most requested character not in Smash and the fact that we are getting a presentation in October rather than at TGA indicates this last fighter will be a first party or small third party. I hate to say it, but at this point I think Sora is too good to be true.

Want: 75%

Kingdoms Hearts is great. Whether they keep it to KH original content or maybe add in a few Disney characters as a one time exception, I'll be down for it. KH is brimming with charm and I want Simple and Clean in Smash.

 

[BowserKing]

Sora
Chance: 5%. With one slot left and Sephiroth in the second fighter’s pass, Sora seems less likely to appear. Plus Sora might be one of the most expensive fighter’s do to being assisted by a very big company.
Want: 75%. Sure he would be fun to play as either way, and him and Cloud partnering again would be fun. Overall, he would make a great Smash Bros rep.
Joe Random
Chance: 1%. If were going for very random characters, the last name seems fitting. I don’t see him being the final fighter.
Want: 50%. Yeah he would be an unexpected fighter, so I’m on the fence. But he could be a fun and decent smash bros Rep.
Crazy Taxi rep
Chance: 1%. Yet another unlikely choice for Smash Bros, again due to their being one slot left. But we have been proven wrong multiple times.
Want: 50%. Yeah I’m on the fence with a rep from that game as welol. They could be fun and decent smash bros reps.

 

[Perkilator]

This is gonna be my last time on the RTC for Ultimate's life cycle (if I ever come here again, that is), so I'm gonna abstain on Joe Random and Crazy Taxi dude(s).

Regardless of warnings
The future doesn't scare me at all
Chance: Don't know
Despite a leak getting the last presentation's dare right, no characters are set in stone. I'm gonna wing it and see who it is. I won't be mad if it's not Sora (regardless of my feelings on the character by themselves).

Want: 100%
That being said, I'm not backing down until everything's TRULY over and Sora's a no-show. Sora's been my most wanted since 2017, and after the leak (regardless if it's true or not) I'm keeping hope alive until the bitter end. If Sora were the last Fighter, I'd die happy.

 

[fogbadge]

the sky
chances: 25% nothing's really changed since last time we rated him but my gut feeling is that fp11 is gonna be someone more low key. dont know why, just is. i would like to know one way or the other if sakurai considered him legitimate. sure the vast majority of us say he is legit but theres no reason to think sakurai thinks the same way we do.
want: 100% kingdom hearts is one of my favourite game series. sora would have an incredible moveset, an awesome stage, a spectacular selection of music and some nice spirit cameos. for me theres no down side.

abstain on the other only know crazy taxi through the sega racing game and ive never heard of the other.

 

[Lyncario]

Since Sora is one of my most wanted, I might as well give some words for him, even if I don't give him a score.

He's possible. That's for sure. Disney is hard to negociate with, but Nintendo and Sakurai already dealt with harder, and possibly more costly (the rights for Final Fantasy are all over the place in many different countries where Smash is distributed). However, I don't believe the 4chan leak, at all, it's a lucky random guess, and if I'm wrong then I'll be glad I was. I do believe that he's unlikely with how we already had 2 massive break the internet reveals (Steve and Sephiroth), and also another massive character revealed at E3 (Kazuya), especialy Sephiroth since FF and KH are extremly closely linked togethers, but it's still not the same series so I still see it as possible. And also, all the discourse about the rights and Disney for the, what, 3 and half years of speculations now, have all been stupid and heavily missinformed. And of course, I would love to see Sora as the final character, since not only I like Sora a lot, but also because KH as a series means a lot to me on top of being in my top 5 favorite video game series of all time. So shine on sky-boy, and may your heart be your guyding key.

 

[Heoj]

Sora
Chance: 45%
Personally I think ppl are being a little too quick to dismiss the sora leak, i mean obviously it could easily be fake but everytime i see someone giving reasons to dismiss it, to me i just havent heard a good reason to dismiss it yet and i think it has a decently solid shot of being accurate. Even without the leak he has a somewhat okayish shot imo. Sephiroth doesnt really kill Soras shot imo. And while my pessimistic side does expect something underwhelming like a pokemon, crash or waluigi, my optimistic side does think sakurai and the gang are planning a big one to finish.
Want: 100%
From the characters that arent deconfirmed, Phoenix Wright and Sora are really the only characters id personally be happy with as the last slot. I dont really care too much about wether disney content would be included or not, i mean if it is then cool, but if not then theres still a bunch of content they can include. This might be kind of strange but if there was one disney world content id include with sora would be Nightmare before Christmas. A stage with cameos with be pretty cool.

Abstain from the other 2, im not really familiar with them at all.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Alright so all three get 0% chance, now for the specifics

Sora

Fake leak is fake, let's get that out of the way. In a vacuum I think Sora is more than plausible. I don't think Disney would be a licencing nightmare as many claim, he could come with zero Disney content and still fill a character pack and feel faithful to his games, he's one of the most wanted characters ever, the whole package.

But man, this would be a huge deal. Like, bigger than anything since Sonic, maybe even bigger than that. There is absolutely no way they'd have saved this for the last reveal, in a measly standalone presentation. This would've been at E3 or at TGA 100%.

Want: 100%

Joe Random

Sony won't get a fighter in at this point for the same reasons Disney won't. And if they did it wouldn't be Joe.

Want: 0%

Give me a real character please. Rather Sony not get anyone instead of a generic sports guy.

Crazy Taxi

Its not a series that lends itself well to a character. Plus it's dormant if not dead. Contrast it to Sega's many other thriving series and it doesn't stand a chance.

Want: 75%
I'd like to see what Sakurai would come up with. A ska-infused taxi driving Captain Falcon? We could do a lot worse.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

SPORTS!! SPORTS!!
Double zeroes.
The genre of yearly realistic sports games is not something I see being honored in Smash. It's the most generic side of the industry and there's very little passion behind it imo. They are the most "product" games on the market. They appeal to people who aren't very passionate about gaming as a whole. (That sounds cheesy but I don't want to talk down towards that group) Safe to say, I don't play them. Those games having mostly irl sports people in it would also bring an additional problem, good luck making a Spirit board out of that. MLB the show in particular also had no games on Nintendo systems, at least Fifa and NBA manage to have that.

Number 32. Ocarina of Time........... CRAAAAZY TAXIII!!
Chance: 0.1%
This series has its fans but isn't high on SEGA's priority list. Its latest games are mobile exclusives and they're quite a few years old at that. How you could even make the cast playable is also a major problem. These are pretty much regular people that like to get a little wild inside their taxi and "Dude driving car" doesn't sound like it has much to work with. It simply gets demolished by its competition, like Arle, Kiryu, etc.

Want: Abstaining

The character everybody is expecting for some reason
Chance: 5%
I'm not considering the leak here cause it just makes my head hurt. Anyway yeah, Sora is definitely plausible. He's currently the Smash community's special boy by the looks of it and has all the fan demand in the world. Sakurai and Nintendo also seem to be really hyping this next character up, greatening the chances of this final character actually being the big blowout third-party people've been expecting for a while now. My gut however still believes budget theory applies, that Disney would be a bit intimidating to negotiate with (even if they are on good terms) and that it would've made more sense for Sora to show up at last E3 or just earlier in the pass in general.

Want: 1%
He'd just be "eh" for me. I'd accept his inclusion but I'd still be hesitant to get started on Kingdom Hearts. The series is often poked fun of for a reason. In all honesty, I'm just really rooting for my own characters right now.

 

[Sari]

Sora

Chance: Abstain
Abstaining on chance but I just want to say that supposed 4Chan leak is total bull. You mean to tell me that Nintendo planned the exact date of the CP11 presentation all the way back in July? While Covid is still a thing which could easily affect their schedule? While the September Direct probably wasn't even truly scheduled yet? Even if we do get Sora, it's pretty obvious that this is just another Monkeys On Typewriters case similar to what started the Concert leak and means nothing in the end. Early October on a weekday isn't even that crazy of a guess since that's when Steve was revealed last year.

Want: 1%
Sorry but I just could never get into the KH series. And like waddledeeonredyoshi said I'm sort of just rooting for my own personal wanted at this point since I haven't gotten a true "I'm so hyped they got in!" character for FP2 yet.

But if Sora does get in then big congrats to his fans. Sora is one of those characters I often see people get trashed on simply for wanting in Smash, and I love uphill victories like this.

-----

Joe Random

Double 0's

A super obscure character that I don't think has ever been talked about for Smash outside of today. I don't see realistic sport games getting a character anytime soon even if that character is not a real person. If we're talking sports genre of games I'm pretty sure there are better videogame pick out there to go with instead. Also would this even count as a character? Googling Joe Random results in a few small joke posts regarding the character and then stuff for people named Joe. I remember saying that Reckless Safety Notice Man was scraping the barrel, but I think this beats it.

I don't really care about sports (both the genre of games as well as in real life) so that makes me want this even less.

-----

Concept: Crazy Taxi Character

Chance: 0%
A popular Sega game in the Dreamcast days that has been on hold for a long time. Main issue is the Sega competition is insanely massive, with just about every Sega character we've rated most likely having priority.

Want: 10%
I'm down for Crazy Taxi being represented in some form, but this is one of those things that I think is better off represented through a stage, music, or spirit battle. Not to mention I'd much prefer a lot of other Sega characters getting in first such as Axel Stone or Arle.

If this actually did happen though, I want Sakurai to go crazy and just make the character inside the taxi the whole time. It'd be so stupid and nonsensical that I feel like it'd be a nice way to represent the Crazy Taxi series.

 

[Jomosensual]

Abstaining from Sora and Crazy Taxi.

Joe Random

Chance 0 - There is absolutely no chance this happens. I don't think the IRL sports sim games have much of a shot at getting a rep. On top of that I can't see him being the pick out of all the fantastic picks Sony has. Him being the default create a player makes him technically eligible but outside of that he's walking an insanely tight line between being eligible and not.

Want 100 - Yeah, I'll be the only one to go higher than 0 here I suppose. MLB The Show is one of my favorite game series ever though. I also think that there could be an extremely fun moveset for a baseball player character. I don't think there's any chance in hell this ever happens but I'd love it. I also just really was happy that the final character I'll rate for RTC is one from one of my favorite series since childhood.

 

[SargeAbernathy]

Joe Random: 0%
Crazy Taxi: 0%

Abstaining from Want Scores for them. Abstaining from explaining my Chance Score.

Sora: 55%

I'm going to ignore the "leak". Sora still has a good amount going for him.

Negotiations with Disney: Personally, I don't think negotiations with Disney are THAT difficult. Disney makes games. Disney puts games on the Switch. Disney has Jack Sparrow in Sea of Thieves. Disney has stated they've interest in gaming. Even if Sora doesn't get in ... I wouldn't be surprised if Disney and Nintendo had somewhat substantial conversations at least. I don't think Sora is a dead-on-arrival proposal as others tend to assume.

Too Many Square Enix Characters: I think the fan rule that Square/Microsoft can't have too many characters in the DLC passes is silly. If anything, these companies were extremely cooperative in negotiations ... so why couldn't they have a third character?

Fourth Party Characters: The Smash Rule with the greatest weight has always been: "Game Characters Only". Sora straddles this rule being a game character in a world with non-gaming franchises. If Sora brought Disney property along with him, he would be the character that bends this rule the most. But he wouldn't be the only character to bend this rule. (Castlevania and Pokemon bend this rule due to Dracula and Ash-Geninja respectively)

Still, I find this to be Sora's biggest hurdle. Although there are instances where this rule is bent, it has never bent as much as Donald/Goofy getting in. You could bring in a Disney-lite or Non-Disney Sora ... but it would be highly noticeable.

However, if there was ever a time to bend the Fourth-Party rule for a character ... it would be now. The last character.

Want: 40%. I'd be happy! It be awesome to see. But honestly, there's a good 10 or so characters I'd rather see before him.

 

[Sari]

Day over.

We are now roughly 24 hours from the end of Ultimate, so it's time to start predicting for tomorrow.

Write down your Smash Presentation predictions!

What possible characters have a chance of showing up? What mii costumes will we get? Who do you think is the most likely character? Who do you WANT to see tomorrow?

Put all of your thoughts down in here!


Reminder that you will be able to view the reveal at this link. It will start at 7 am PT/10 am EST on Tuesday, October 5th.

Megadoomer

 

[WeirdChillFever]

my thoughts are “off the hook”

thats it thats the thought

 

[NintenRob]

Alrighty, we're finally at the end. It's been a long road. But I think I'm looking forward to having this finally end. All the pointless wars and debate. A cease fire until the next smash comes along.

Character
I'm sticking with King Boo. I still find the lack of a Luigi's Mansion 3 spirit event kinda odd. It could basically be anyone though so I don't really have any expectations. Just hoping it's from a game I've played.

But just to name other possibilities.

Ubisoft and Bethesda.
We have Mii Costumes from them, and Kazuya showed we can get Mii costumes before the more appropriate time. Rayman, Ezio and Doomguy are possibilities to me.

Pokemon I guess, I'd still prefer it to an unknown but there many others I'd prefer.



Mii Costumes
Hmm, I think Phoenix Wright if he isn't playable will likely get Miid

Maybe Ai Ai from Monkey Ball

Something from Shin Megami Tensei

Shovel Knight perhaps

Just to thrown in something for Gunner, Master Cheif, yes, as a Mii Costume. (Or maybe Doom Guy, we do have Bethesda Mii Costumes already)


A big montage of the end.

 

[DanganZilla5]

We are in the endgame folks!

My prediction for who CP11 is....Bill Rizer! That's right, judging from Sakurai's tweets which suggests a character that is more appealing to the West and is a legacy pick, I'm changing my prediction to the Mad Dog.


.Arle Nadja! That's right I'm betting all my chips on her. There is a reason I've advocated for her for a long time now. To me, she always gave off that vibe of being the "underwhelming" final pick that would still make plenty of people happy. Puyo Puyo is popular in Japan, and has a growing audience in the West. It is one of the most popular puzzle series in general, to the point where it got crossovers with Tetris. It has seniority and strong Nintendo history. It also has the backing from Sega who has been pushing the I.P hard. And it seems like Nintendo is joining in too by putting an unlocalized Puyo Puyo game on the SNES online service. A lot of things point toward her and I feel she's a safe bet.

Now for some honorable mentions:

• Phoenix Wright - Raised on Nintendo systems and has strong fan demand. Also has a recent game they can promote (Even if it's a different protagonist). One of the most popular series in its genre.
• Professor Layton - Level 5 is super close to Nintendo and yet has no content in Smash. KInd of seems fishy to me. I'll keep an eye on this.
• Danganronpa - Niche, but successful series that has a collection coming to the Switch, and is one of the bigger titles in its genre.
• Reimu - A darkhorse pick. Very popular in Japan, has some localized official games now, and would be very cheap and easy to obtain.
• Bill Rizer - Classic NES series with legacy and influence. Plus Konami has not gotten anything since base game so I can see them taking the last spot and Bill is one of their top remaining contenders.
• Metroid rep - Nintendo has been hyping up Dread and it's coming out in 4 days so I wouldn't be surprised if we get a shill for Metroid.
• SMT - Very popular in Japan and has some recent games on the Switch. Even if Nahobino is too recent, there is Demi-Fiend who still makes a lot of sense due to his game being the first SMT to be localized in NA and it came to the Switch last year.
• Falcom rep - A left field candidate with a lot of legacy. Nintendo and Falcom have been working with each other a lot recently and Falcom is localizing more and more of their games.
• Dynasty Warriors - Solid candidate from one of Nintendo's closest partners. Popular, but not too popular to be too big for last. It's an influential series and it just makes a lot of sense to me.

For Mii costumes I'm expecting some heavy hitters like Doomguy, Ryu Hayabusa, and maybe some characters from the above list. I'm also hoping we get an updated version of Everyone is Here with all the DLC characters.

 

[Jomosensual]

My final predictions:

I have no ****ing idea


My honest predictions:
Gonna stick to my guns and say a 1st party character with something coming up soon, like I have since the beginning. Candidates include:
BWD(With the new Kirby I'd assume he'd be in at least)
A pokemon to rep Legends
Kraid for Dread

For Mii Costumes I think we get a few more popular requests:
Phoenix Wright
Hollow Knight
Doom Guy
and then 1 or 2 others.


I also think we get some sort of nice surprise at the end. It won't be an echo, new fighter, or more DLC. But it'll be something small and nice

 

[ProfPeanut]

Given recent circumstances, I have a feeling about the following:

1. It's going to be a popular Western rep.
2. It might be an FPS pick, if only because shooters are the last major unrepresented genre in Smash.
3. Lots of people are going to cry about it anyway, because that's how it was always going to end.

Of course, that doesn't help determine the actual quality of the fighter we get. Jonesy or League of Legends could fall under those just as easily as Master Chief or Kratos could. The main reason I doubt now that it'll be a safe disappointing pick is that it'd be really counterproductive for Sakurai to invite non-Smash fans to be just as disappointed as the Smash fans.

This last day is gonna be the last time we ever guess about Smash for good, so we might as well dream while we can.

 

[BowserKing]

My prediction
If we’re going for a Nintendo character, then a Pokémon seems like a good choice. And while my bias hopes for Lugia, it’s clear that a Gen 8 Pokémon like Dragapult and Toxtricity is more likely. If we’re going for a Third Party then Dr.Eggman or Crash Bandicoot are likely choices.
For Mii Costumes, I can see an indie Mii Costume (like Shovel Knight) and a Pokémon Mii Costume (Gardivoir). Hopefully the final fighter would be fun.

 

[Megadoomer]

My prediction is Cinderace; as much as I'd love to see Smash Ultimate end with a megaton announcement, given how previous Smash speculation periods have ended, I'm fully expecting a character that's safe and likely first party.

For Mii costumes, I'm fully expecting that it's going to be like Kazuya's wave, where it's a bunch of popular characters who they couldn't include as fighters for one reason or another. (given that every Mii costume wave in FP2 has ruled out a character that I either wanted or thought was likely (Heihachi, Travis Touchdown, Geno, Monster Hunter, Dante), I'm guessing that Doomguy will be one of them)

 

[Cutie Gwen]

My most confident prediction got shattered after Sakurai made a JP tweet about how Japan may not be familiar and for some reason my brain is reading that as the Chozo. Other than that, I had Phoenix Wright and Reimu as my most likely characters

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Off the Hook seems increasingly unlikely with the Japanese-aimed ”You might not know who this is” so I’m shifting more and more towards my secondsry predictions of a Ubisoft character or a Dynasty Warriors character

 

[Rie Sonomura]

My guesses for the final character

• Neku Sakuraba
• Arle Nadja
• Octoling
• Off the Hook (Pearl & Marina)
• Reimu Hakurei
• League of Legends Champion (leaning toward Ahri, Lux or Jinx)

Mii costumes:

• Another Indie Mii with a song, this time a Swordfighter. Possible candidates include Kris from Deltarune, the Knight from Hollow Knight, Zagreus from Hades, Hat Kid from A Hat In Time, and if you wanna also do an AT-to-Mii like the Squid Sisters and Bomberman, Shovel Knight
• Monokuma (Danganronpa) full body costume
• Crono, if Neku’s the last character
• Anyone related to CP11’s series (depends)

Misc.:

• The final trailer will be themed after WoL’s true ending where both Galeem and Dharkon are defeated. Hero’s was of the bad ending where only Galeem is defeated and Dharkon takes over; Sephiroth’s was of the inverse bad ending.
• The bonus eshop space is revealed to be a three stage bonus pack of all new stages, each with their own music. One of them will be a Xenoblade Chronicles X stage with music.
• Any or all of these: 2P WoL, WoL Very Hard Mode, the ability to use the possession and full body clone effects (both light and dark alignments) on literally anyone in normal gameplay. It’s a toggleable option, not a skin.
• another ballot for the next game that’ll run for a year (not counting on it, just throwing it out as a possibility) and/or hints at plans for the next game
• One final retrospective
• Oh and whether or not we’ll get new spirits and or tourneys for a while longer
  

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

I'm keeping my eye on the following characters.

Bandana Waddle Dee
Rayman
The Knight
An Undertale rep
Arle
SMT rep
Waluigi

Of course, most of those are the ones I'd be personally happy with and am biased for but with how much Sakurai and co are hyping this event up, it could result in the big earthshattering third-party character people've expecting for a while now like Sora, Crash or Chief. For the record, I didn't believe in third-party double-dipping but Chief has to be the character they'd make an exception for. Doomslayer's likely still out cause of that one interview. Tho if they really wanted to subvert people's expectations about a FPS rep, they'd show us Freeman.

And as far as Pokemon's concerned, I don't see it. Crowd-cheer theory combined with that Spirit event seems too damning. It also would've made more sense to show that at the direct. Here it would be such a dud lol.

I could see the following costumes happen
-Master Chief (if he ain't 11), Swordfighter/Gunner
-Ryu Hayabusa, Swordfighter
-Phoenix Wright, Brawler
-Prof Layton, Swordfighter
-The Knight (if they ain't 11), Swordfighter
-Kris, Swordfighter
-Papyrus, Swordfighter

Now if I really had to bet on the character... I'm really feeling Rayman right now. All we can go off for this character is those Sakurai tweets and man, being unfamiliar to Japanese audiences is something we all know Rayman fits, moreso than Chief imo. It would be really funny if that Japanese obscurity actually worked out for him in the end. In case it is him I can see another slew of Ubisoft costumes like Barbarra, Sam Fisher, Prince of Persia, etc.

As for any miscellaneous stuff, I at least want the presentation to end of with an updated version of the Everyone is Here trailer. It would be just the perfect sendoff.

 

[2006ToyotaTacoma]

Characters I'm looking out for:

Phoenix Wright
Amaterasu
Bill Rizer
Frisk
Arle Nadja
SMT
Master Chief

Who I think it'll actually be:
Yeah no lol. I have no idea.

Mii Costumes:
-Kris
-Master Chief (if not FP11)
-Phoenix (if not FP11)
-Hayabusa
-Kiryu

 

[zferolie]

For me. I have 5 i feel have a good chance.

Reimu
Candance
Waluigi
Some pokemon rep(my wish is cynthia but i doubt it will be her)
Hornet from Hollow knight

Who i think have no chance:

Sora
Doomguy
Crash
Master chief
Ryu hyabusa

Mii costumes i think could happen

Hollow knight
Some pokemon outfits
Phoenix wright

I just dont see sora happening at all. SE has already proven hard to work with, and then add in disney? Not happening. I thought people learned not to listen to 4chan leaks.

Reimu i just have a strong feeling about. Popular in japan but still like its a smaller end like smash tends to do. Shes an indie which i feel will be the final character, hence why i have 3 characters there. Otherwise i feel like its a pokemon. I really want cynthia because with gen 4 games coming and she is the most popular trainer of the games. But i feel it will be cinderace or something.

Last, my long shot: bonus echo fighters. I can see this happening as they arent as hard to make and its a easy way to add more to the roster. My guess would be 3-4: ms pacman, Medusa, Shiek, and Black Shadow

 

[GoodGrief741]

I already used The Doors for the Direct so I guess it's time for a backup

So! This time for real. It's 100%, no doubt about it, happening, tomorrow.

There isn't much to predict really. Just who the character will be, their stage, and Mii Costumes I guess. Release date too. And then that's it. It'll all be over. Huh

Welp, after being all-in on a shill for our finisher, now I've made a 180° and believe the character won't be promotional. How's that for a twist? Shyamalan would be proud. Anything else is fair game, could be first party or third party, old or new, Japanese or Western. The tweets would seem to indicate, at the very least, that the character will be unknown and/or controversial to a substantial part of the audience, though whether they're aimed at a specific region is up in the air imo. One thing's for certain: this is still the final character so undoubtedly people will somehow get themselves hyped by the likes of Sora, Doomguy, Master Chief, et al only to be sorely disappointed. A universal constant, if you will.

But, fine, time to put on the big boy pants and predict someone. Last time I said Ashley but now I don't think it'd be her so I'm gonna say... Frogger. No reason why, but I think we'll probably get a character that not many people were thinking of and... Frogger! Makes sense, fits the bill. But I won't be right (and if I am I expect to be considered an insider come Smash 6 - spread the word folks).

The Mii Costumes will include a Mii with music. Again, could be anyone, and we don't know if there will be a theme or just a random grab bag. But here's my unlikely shot at getting it right:

• Sol Badguy (Sword)
• Professor Layton
• Wonder Red (Brawler)
• Raiden (Sword)
• Commander Shepard (Gunner)
• Ralsei (Gunner, comes with a song)

Who knows! Maybe I'll get one or two right. I was tempted to make this another lineup of popular rejects like the last wave (hence Layton and Sol) and I think it's a very likely outcome but... I didn't! Don't expect a very deep thought process behind any of my predictions, I'm not the precise type.

As for what I want to see... Well, not gonna lie, I could really use a fighter that personally appeals to me. FP2 has been pretty lousy so I could use the fanservice. But honestly what I'm really hoping for is a fan favorite. Doesn't have to be for me: could be someone like Rayman who I don't really care about but would make a lot of people happy. Failing that, just a pick I can respect. Again, FP2 has been a pileup of baffling decisions so I want to be able to look at FP11 and at least say "OK, I get it". And if the moveset's good, even better, though I probably won't be able to play as them for the foreseeable future.

If I have to namedrop one character I hope for to sort of will them into existence, I guess I'll go with Isaac. Isaac's rad.

As for Mii Costumes, all I hope is that they don't kill any character I want. I don't buy Mii Costumes unless they come with music so I see them as worthless disconfirmations. With that in mind, if the final character sucks (which is a strong possibility), I know that I'll be salty if they got picked over a cool character. It's irrational but it'll be 11AM for me and I'll be tired as **** so I want to spare myself the feeling please and thanks.

Oh and final prediction is that FP11 will release sometime after Dread's release.

OK, it's done, I'll see you on the other side!

 

[fogbadge]

well here we are at last. honestly i think ill be kinda of relieved once its over in between the hype/disappointment, even though ill probably run out of things to say on this website. as for my predictions for tomorrows well my gut instinct has been that itll be someone smaller and sakurai's recent comment would seem to back that up. mind you sakurai isnt the most consistent of people so who knows. so im think itll be someone from one of nintendos own switch titles, like king boo or a gen 8 pokemon or a less popular 3rd party character like layton or jibanyan. or perhaps an indie character. i certainly dont think itll be someone big. then again knowing my luck itll be a second bayo character or edlegard. so yeah i think its gonna be someone low key. dont have any concrete predictions so ill just have to leave it at that. see yehs one the other side.

 

[Louie G.]

I've been out of the speculation game for a little while now - I've only given passing thoughts toward theories about the last character and have preferred to stay pretty ambivalent as not to breed any real expectations. Still though, with only one day left and my anxiety to see that final character rising, sharing my scattered thoughts about the grand finale wouldn't kill me. So here are some characters who I think have a fighting chance.

Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney)
I think Phoenix is an excellent fit for a Bayonetta-esque finale. Like, Ace Attorney isn't Twitter-breaking huge or anything but is still pretty well known in the public eye and popular among Smash fans and general Nintendo fans alike. Based on previous fan polls it seems likely that he performed well in the Ballot (he was almost always the highest placing Capcom character by a significant margin) and Ace Attorney has been seeing a surge in relevance with more on the way. I've always had my doubts about Phoenix's implementation - whether or not he'd win out over other Capcom characters, whether the suits at Nintendo would have seen the potential in him... but I think he's in a comfortable place as an exciting last reveal that neither disappoints nor sets the world aflame. If you wanted me to take a shot in the dark and say ONE character for tomorrow, it would probably be him I guess.

Arle Nadja (Puyo Puyo)
Arle is in a pretty similar position IMO, but doesn't have the same universality as Phoenix - instead Arle is a really significant Japanese pick and a small western one. But that kinda balances out, right? In any case, I haven't completely lost faith in Arle yet. Puyo is one of the biggest, most influential and longest running Japanese IPs missing from Smash altogether (not even a costume or spirit event) with a significant presence on Switch and a history of notable collaborations. Sega is confusingly totally absent from FP2 and is the only returning company other than SNK to be in this situation... and obviously it's more jarring for this to be the case with Sega than SNK. With Puyo Puyo's historical significance, unique gameplay potential and strong presence on Nintendo consoles, Arle is always someone worth considering. I've talked about her plenty of times before so by now you probably get the jist.

Frisk (Undertale)
Weird one that I've seen come up a bit more frequently lately, but let's consider for a second - just how big is Undertale? It's a worldwide phenomenon played and adored by millions, a memetic powerhouse that has had an irreversible impact on the Internet, a celebrated achievement in video game music to the point that it had a full Japanese orchestra play its soundtrack for its fifth anniversary... While indie games have always been a shaky subject when discussing character additions, rarely has an indie game had such universal success and lasting appeal as Undertale, which of course has also just received the second chapter demo for its upcoming and highly anticipated sequel. When discussing the most important games of the last decade, I don't think it would be a stretch to consider Undertale among the very top.

Couple that with Toby Fox's own demonstrated willingness to collaborate and well, it is an indie game so it probably wouldn't be all that expensive to work out either. Sans is already a Mii costume and personally as a fan of the series I'm thrilled to even have that, but the reaction to that costume is unlike anything I've ever seen toward anything that isn't a full on playable character. With Heihachi's costume existing right alongside Kazuya revealed a few presentations later, we should probably be willing to humor at least the possibility of such a thing repeating itself. Or maybe I'm just incredibly high off Deltarune hype, because Chapter 2 was one of the best things I've played in a very long time.

Master Chief (Halo)
So this is probably the biggest move you could pull right now, and that's why I'm really uncertain about it. But I have to say, as much as we probably shouldn't read into tweets too hard, it really feels like both Nintendo and Sakurai are confident that this final character will be a worthy conclusion to such a massive "celebration of gaming" as Sakurai said. Sure, they're pretty much obligated to talk this up and yes, it's still the conclusion to an incredible accomplishment of a crossover so regardless it will be a big deal. But I dunno, there's an optimistic side of me that believes we may very well end with a big reveal after all.

Pretty much everything that applied to Chief before still applies to him now, he's a massive pull from a cooperative partner. They've been teasing big collaborations for Nintendo and Xbox for months and the only thing we have to show for that so far is Banjo coming to NSO. I definitely struggle to imagine why they wouldn't sync Chief up with E3 seeing how that would be the biggest stage possible for the biggest reveal, but there's of course the explanation that he may not have been presentable or that the schedule was impacted by COVID from the beginning of the pass. Either way he's definitely the most volatile prediction of the bunch, but I don't want to count him out.

---

Hype responsibly and all that but the community ought to take its own advice sometimes and be willing to break patterns. Smash isn't obligated to end with a whimper, and I don't think it will. To be honest, I contest the idea that it ever has. Bayonetta was a big deal, and Smash 4 DLC was announced early enough that the hype cycle never really stopped until DLC was over. And the same could be said about Ultimate, with Plant announced right after Incineroar and Joker less than a month later - then a FP2 announced with Terry and news about the next fighter mere months after Byleth. Ultimate's hype cycle has been nonstop since the day we saw that flaming Smash ball. I choose to be an optimist - I think I'll be happy with the last character.

If you want to know my absolute dream reveals for tomorrow:
Arle or a Rhythm Heaven character. Here's hoping by some miracle I'll have one more opportunity to completely lose my mind over a Smash reveal.

 

[Yiptap]

guys IT's KiNG Boo tHerE was No LuIGI'S mANSiOn 3 SpiriT evEnt

I was joking. I meant no offense, though I feel King Boo's argument is quite flimsy.
I haven't been on RTC for a while, and that was mostly out of laziness. But now, it's the grand event. The end to one of the greatest video game crossovers of all time. I haven't thought of who the next character will be, to be honest. But if I have to say something, it's that it will probably not be Doom Guy, Master Chief, or Sora. I feel like those are bloated hopes. I still think Crash is possible, though. And although Reimu is still possible, what evidence does she have pointing to her? She feels like she has the same chances as every not deconfirmed indie there is. And I'll leave it at that. See you all on the other side : )

 

[RouffWestie]

For my expected characters:
THE BIG THREE
Arle Nadja, Phantasy Star Online 2 Avatar, and unironically Nahobino.
Basically 3 diverging paths I could see Ninteneo taking; Arle makes sense as "the highly requested one", PSO2 Avi makes sense as "the conveniently-important-to-Sakurai one" , and Nahobino makes sense as "the new-title-promoting one." SEGA has a good relationship with Nintendo and I think their lack of representation in FP2 is possibly due to the final fighter being from one of their franchises.
These would also be 3 characters I would consider influential enough for Smash without being worldwide-groundbreaking inclusions like Steve in this pass or Cloud in Smash 4. The mid-level picks are the type of character I feel is most likely at this point (though I wouldn't rule out a bigger-deal character happening.)

THE REST OF THE TOP TEN

1. Granblue Fantasy rep
2. League of Legends rep
3. Danganronpa rep
4. Rhythm Heaven rep
5. Wonder Red
6. Chun-Li
7. Captain Toad

Some new company picks that I could see being picked because of good relationships with Nintendo, others are just who I'd consider latecomer-fanservice picks. Few of them are particularly huge in either A.) requests within the Smash community, or B.) to gaming as a whole because I feel the likeliest characters would lack weight in one of these areas.
Captain Toad and Chun-Li are the most well-known of the bunch, which is why I said I wouldn't rule out a bigger-deal character happening. Chun-Li has all the merit in the world and Captain Toad is the star of, what's at this point, a successful spinoff series, but I don't think either are in the same perfect spot as the Big Three or the other franchises without playable representation.

For characters I actually want:
The only perfect chars to end on for me would be Emrel (with customization,) Maplestory avatar (with customization,) Lilty, Master Chief, or Adeline. Final reveals that I'd love just for how ridiculous ending on them would be are TF2 Spy, Lammy, Raiden, Kratos, and Tiffi.