Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[GoodGrief741]

oh yeah I meant to ask how many days we got left on the fixed schedule

Counting the current one, 5.

 

[Perkilator]

Can we please drop this?

 

[MasterCheef]

You're letting your bias against these characters severely cloud your judgment. These aren't unpopular characters on their own. There's always going to be context.

So my bias has nothing to do with popularity and is based on having a new character with a fun / good unique game-play style.
Characters who do have a good gameplay style which i really find unfun are Minecraft Steve, Bayonetta, ROB, Snake & Hero

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

GoodGrief741 Is Fulgore already set for a day to be talked about? That's the only reason I'm not throw some noms his way.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Byleth is not an unpopular character on their own merit. They're actually fairly well-liked. The problem was being yet another FE character and the final known DLC at the time(which we found out the possibility of 1 or 2 more would've happened, but beforehand, we had 6 total DLC period). The context was the issue, not the character themselves. Even Chrom got ridiculous hate despite being an Echo, just cause lol more Fire Emblem. The series gets a lot of unreasonable hate simply cause it got a fair amount of content in 4. That left a sour taste in many people's mouths, especially with other series getting no new characters as is(DK took till freaking Ultimate to get more than 2 characters). That's just life.

Don't forget that there was a lot of stuck up and aggressively smug behavior from Byleth's fans, which only bred more resentment from those tired of the franchise's over representation, which would cause the fans to act even MORE extreme with the stuck-up/smug behavior next time around, which would garner an even WORSE reaction, thus starting a massive negativity feedback loop, which I only see getting bigger and bigger in the future.

Either way, this is getting ridiculous, the thread's going horribly off-topic, so I'm gonna ask a question that will hopefully rerail things a bit.

I've never played LM3 myself, while a possible King Boo spirit board could re-use vanilla spirits ala Min Min and Pythra, how many viable characters are there in-game for a proper spirit board? One could also do a Pan-Luigi's Mansion board and include ghosts from all three games. As far as I know none of the named ghosts have spirits.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Don't forget that there was a lot of stuck up and aggressively smug behavior from Byleth's fans, which only bred more resentment from those tired of the franchise's over representation, which would cause the fans to act even MORE extreme with the stuck-up/smug behavior next time around, which would garner an even WORSE reaction, thus starting a massive negativity feedback loop, which I only see getting bigger and bigger in the future.

True. But yeah, that just says a lot about how there's quite a lot of fans as is, and a lot of popularity. Unfortunately, fanbases clash hard, so...

But yeah, I moved on after being asked(it is pretty off-topic, so my bad earlier).

 

[GoodGrief741]

GoodGrief741 Is Fulgore already set for a day to be talked about? That's the only reason I'm not throw some noms his way.

Fulgore is not scheduled so you can nominate him.

I've never played LM3 myself, while a possible King Boo spirit board could re-use vanilla spirits ala Min Min and Pythra, how many viable characters are there in-game for a proper spirit board? One could also do a Pan-Luigi's Mansion board and include ghosts from all three games. As far as I know none of the named ghosts have spirits.

Luigi's Mansion 3 alone has like 15 boss ghosts all with unique designs plus Hellen Gravely who shares the antagonist role with King Boo. Aside from that there's the ghosts from LM1 (none of which are Spirits to my recollection) and characters from Dark Moon like the Polterpup. They could easily make a Spirit Board, whether they want to rep the whole trilogy or just the third game.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

x5 Noms to Fulgore then~

 

[NintenRob]

I want King Boo, I also think he's often overlooked in speculation.

 

[Treked]

x5 Noms to Fulgore then~

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Video

...That joke would work better if his name was spelled the same way in the video preview. I know it is in the anime. Speaking of, I don't remember if Zatch Bell was a Manga/Anime or Game first?

Also, for the record, it's against the rules to post media-only posts. Words should exist.

 

[Treked]

...That joke would work better if his name was spelled the same way in the video preview. I know it is in the anime. Speaking of, I don't remember if Zatch Bell was a Manga/Anime or Game first?

Also, for the record, it's against the rules to post media-only posts. Words should exist.

Ah sorry just wanted to do the reference. It's a manga first by the way.

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate the following characters:

• Rayman from the Rayman series.
• Sol Badguy from the Guilty Gear series.
• Concept: Disgaea rep.

Predict Sakura Shinguji and Axel Stone.

-----

Some songs for today's characters:

Rayman

Spoiler: Rayman Music

Sol Badguy

Spoiler: Guilty Gear Songs

Disgaea rep

Spoiler: Diagaea Music

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain.

Sakura: 5%
Axel: 20%

Noms:
[Rerate] Dr. Eggman x4
[Rerate] Sora x6

 

[DanganZilla5]

The guy trapped in ice for no reason

Chance: 5%

I'm not confident in Rayman at all. Why is that? Well it mostly comes down to the fact that I don't think the last character will be a western character. E3 was the optimal time to reveal one and it didn't happen. Now I want to examine the circumstances that some of the big western characters are in. For one, we have Dragonborn who was relegated to a costume, even though Japan loves Skyrim and it's one of the most famous games from the last decade. Then we have Crash who is still missing. I know this will piss off some people, but I do think Crash would certainly get in first before Rayman. The main reason for that is not just because Crash has a bigger legacy, but he's one of the few western characters to have a moderate level of success in Japan and also has had a strong revival, both of which do not apply to Rayman.

And that's another problem with Rayman is that he just seems to have bad luck. Ubisoft has not cared to make another Rayman since Rayman Legends DE in 2017. That's not a great sign, especially since Legends did flop in Japan. This could explain why he has only gotten minor roles in Smash via trophy or spirit form.

Now granted, Rayman does have some merits such as him likely doing very well on the ballot and since Mii costumes are no longer an obstacle, the Ubisoft costumes don't hurt his chances anymore. Still, if Crash is struggling to get in and if freakin Skyrim couldn't get in then that just puts doubt on western characters in my eyes. Unfortunately there is not a lot pointing towards Rayman right now.

Want: 75%

But make no mistake, I would like to be wrong. I really enjoy his games. I have nostalgia for the first Rayman game, I think it's a classic and looks really good even to this day. And I have Rayman Legends Definitive Edition which is also a great game with a lot of charm of creativity to it. So don't mistake me for a hater, I would love for Rayman to join the fight as much as some of you do. He would look natural right next to Mario, Mega Man, Sonic, Pac Man, etc.

________________________

Imagine having "badguy" as your last name

Chance: 20%

Now this is someone who we should keep in mind. Guilty Gear is a long-running series that has had consistent releases and sales, plus it has a couple games on the Switch. Arc System Works, who owns the series, is directly involved in Smash via the Kunio-Kun spirits. Furthermore they have a good relationship with Nintendo as they have published and developed games for their systems for many years and they've been supporting the Switch, thus out of all the new companies that could be introduced, I think they are one of the most likely.

If we are looking for a Terry-tier pick then Sol Badguy fits that bill pretty well. Guilty Gear isn't as popular as the mainstream fighters like Street Fighter or Tekken but it has done well for itself so I could see Nintendo going for it. Do I believe we could get another fighting game character right after Kazuya? Of course. We got Hero right after Joker and we got Pythra after Sephiroth, plus the two passes have mostly consisted of RPG and fighting game characters so it's clear to me that Nintendo doesn't give a **** about genre representation. It's more about the characters and series themselves and both Sol Badguy and Guilty Gear could bring new things to Smash in addition to being just a new I.P. The only major hurdles he faces is competition from Double Dragon and BlazBlue.

Want: Abstain

I did play a couple rounds of Guilty Gear but I still don't know enough about the series to rate it fairly. From my first impressions Sol Badguy seems cool and I digged his fighting style but still there are other fighting games that I would prefer to see get in first like Soul Calibur most importantly and Killer Instinct.

_____________________________

The level 9999 game

Chance: 10%

I believe this is the same score that I gave Disgaea the last time because to my knowledge not much has changed for it. Nintendo has given the series some support and even made one of the games available for free for a limited time for NSO members so they do have a level of interest in Disgaea. And to my knowledge Disgaea is Nippon Ichi's frontrunner series. But would it get the Smash treatment? Maybe but even compared to other series like Guilty Gear and Puyo Puyo for example it's still quite niche and Nintendo is closer to other Japanese companies. So overall Disgaea could get in but it's a long stretch IMO.

Want: 5%

I played some of Disgaea 5 when it was available for NSO members and....I didn't care for it. There were a few things that I enjoyed like Killia's character and some of the humor but overall it's not for me. I just didn't care about the gameplay or the story at all. So yeah Disgaea is something that I have very little interest in seeing in Smash. There are plenty of other niche series that I am more passionate about.

Predictions:
Sakura - 5%
Axel - 11%

Noms: Destroy All Humans content x30

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Rayman

Chance: 10% - I know this is a bit high, but I do feel like there are a couple of things in Rayman's favor. Still, first we'll get the downsides out of the way. Rayman's franchise isn't in a good spot, basically dormant since Legends and in the last 5 years only had a Legends rerelease and a subpar mobile game. Not the state your series should be in. There's also his lack of recognizability in Japan, as his series hasn't done well there (in comparison to his Ubisoft brother franchise Assassin's Creed, which both got a Mii costume and even was chosen as a mock voice for the announcer VA to say), so a character super obscure in Japan just doesn't seem like a Nintendo pick. There's also the matter that bigger western third parties were either costumed (Dragonborn) or nowhere to be found (Crash). Why Rayman over them? However, there are a couple of things that give me some confidence in Rayman. First, Kazuya showed further that Mii costumes aren't a big problem anymore (disregarding the possibility that this was a special case, as Tekken's creator is known for misleading/misdirection; despite Vault Boy, Dragonborn got costumed anyway, so the same could happen to Rayman. The Minecraft costumes show that floating Mii Costume limbs can happen), so the Altair and Rabbids costumes are no issue for Rayman. Granted, this helps Ezio as well (probably Rayman's greatest inter-company competition), but a rising tide raises all boats. Second, which actually helps both, is the theory of Kazuya anf FP11 being switched (based on Kazuya's tournament ID and the theory of the Missing Banjo). Both cases are both big in the west and too big of a deal to be last, but if the noew FP11 was going to originally be the E3 reveal, both are a very real possibility. Finally, there's a unique circumstance I want to bring up. I've noticed that a lot of "hype came too late" third party characters got costumed (Dragonborn, Dante, Travis, etc) or unrepresented at all (Crash). Meanwhile, ballot-era characters have been having a pretty good time (K. Rool, Ridley, Banko and Kazooie) along with characters that were negotiated years ago (Steve, possibly Sephiroth). Unlike his other western contemporaries (aside from Crash's more modest ballot presence pre-revival), Rayman had a strong showing of demand even prior to the ballot thanks to ArtsyOmni's fake leak, along with the hype surrounding legends (Rayman basically had back then what Crash has now). His lack of presence in Japan's always gonna be an extreme limiting factor, but I do think that his big head start may help give him a leg-up on his competition.

Want: 70% - Not my TOP western character, but definitely one I'd be perfectly happy with seeing. Rayman himself has all kinds of bizarre abilities he could use, and the ability to throw and control his limbs would be a super fun spin on the brawler archtype! There's also the content he would come with. The Glade of Dreams, Band Land, Candy Chateau, Desert of Digirigdoos, etc, would make for some colorful and fantastically unique locales! And the music! Don't get me started on the music, Rayman's got some fantastic tunes! Plus he'd be a character with plenty of fan demand to end off on and wouldn't upset many people either. A crowd pleaser pick! Really, I think he'd be a very fun addition to the cast!


Sol Badguy

Chance: 10% - Things haven't changed much for Sol since last time, other than there simply being one slot remaining. I'm a little more skeptical on third party being the last, and despite being a more niche third party fighting game character, he doesn't quite ride on Terry's coattails (Sol doesn't have the significance to Smash's history). Still, he has a solid shot! ArcSys is on board with Smash already, given our Kunio Kun spirit event, and they've released plenty of games on the Switch. Plus Sakurai is sometimes given more broad assignments rather than specific characters, so if he got to pick an ArcSys character he may pick Sol over, say, Ragna, due to Sol having more history within the company (likely another reason Terry was chosen over someone like Kyo). Granted, I still think they would've revealed Sol at E3 if he were happening since he shares a genre with Kazuya (if our last two were fighting game reps it'd be a little weird to not do a double-reveal). Still, aside from competition with Ragna, Sol doesn't have any major issues standing in his way.

Want: 30% - More neutral on Sol, since I've never played Guilty Gear. While he isn't my first choice for a rep (and swordsman fatigue is hitting hard), there are things that I think make him stand out in a positive way! His aesthetic is unique among Smash reps, a big, burly bounty hunter is something Smash doesn't have yet, and would make him unique for his character type (as opposed to skinny anime prettyboy like most, especially his competition Ragna). Furthermore, I do like his weapon Junkyard Dog. It has an interesting futuristic look, and it doubling as a cannon is super cool. So while he isn't anywhere near the top of my list, he'd still be a fine way to end off Smash. He's cool!


Disgaea Rep

Chance: 5% - Another niche third party that seems like something we'd see for our final rep. Disgaea has gotten a decent amount of promotion and recent representation on the Switch. So clearly Nintendo's interest is there. They even got one of the games as a free trial for NSO users. Disgaea is also Nippon Ichi's frontrunner undeniably (they have very few other franchises anyway), so inter-company competition isn't an issue. Still, the games are extremely niche, even compared to other Japan-centric franchises like Puyo Puyo. It just hasn't reached the audience. Maybe that will change in the future, but for now it'll probably get a mii costume at best. Nintendo's much closer to other Japanese companies, so in the end Nippon Ichi will likely just get outprioritized.

Want: 10% - It gets points for the Nintendo representation and for some of its' meta antics, but that's about where it ends. Disgaea represents one of the big aspects I dislike about JRPGs and other similar genres in Japan: Grinding. Grinding is not fun (and this is coming from a seasoned shiny hunter), and spending, for example, 8 hours doing tedious tasks to level up an item sounds miserable. This is likely one of the reasons why the franchise is so niche outside of Japan. Furthermore I'm not too big on the humor. Plus, if we get a Nippon Ichi rep, I'd much rather see Mad Rat Dead get in instead. It has great music, gameplay, characters, and more! THAT'S the kind of game that should be celebrated!



Nominations:
DJ Octavio xAll

Predictions:
Axel - 12.81%
Sakura - 21.07%

 

[2006ToyotaTacoma]

No, Patrick, Rayman is not trapped in the ice on Battlefield

Chance: 5% He who would've been a fairly safe pick come base game is now dangling out the window at this point: Rayman as a series has been dormant ever since Legend's release in 2013, Ubisoft seems to just lack the passion for Rayman as a series, opting to far promote the Rabbids as a series, and Rayman is just a borderline nobody in Japan, with Legends landing with a thud in Japanese markets upon its release. There may be some love unspoken amongst the higher ups at Ubisoft, but with how the series has been practically forgotten as of recent, I'm really doubting that possibility.

Want: 60% I'm still overall very neutral towards Rayman as a possible fighter in Smash, but after watching Duke of Dork's Rayman moveset proposal, I can see some genuinely fun moveset possibilities coming from his lack o' limbs. He'd definitely make for an interesting fighter.

THE WORLD IS NOT SO TIGHT, RIGHT? banging guitar solo

Chance: 1% I'll be brutally honest here: I don't expect another fighting game rep, especially after we just got one in the form of Kazuya. Now you may respond with "We had two characters from the same genre twice in a row, on two different occasions!" and you'd be right. However, notice that in both scenarios each character has a completely different playstyle/archetype/gimmick compared to their successor/predecessor, while the fighting bois tend to have mechanic overlap (inputs and auto turnarounds). From what I've noticed, each pass had a fighter that varies differently from other fighters in that same pass, and with Kazuya taking the trad fighting game role like Terry for FP1, he almost certainly kills the chances of any trad fighting game character, Sol included, imo. There's always the possibility that I'm wrong tho, so for that I refuse to give him a 0%.

Want: 98%

Guilty Gear Strive - Smell Of The Game (Main Theme)

Composer : Daisuke IshiwatariVocals : Naoki HashimotoFull ver.

www.youtube.com

I rest my case as to why Sol is arguably my 4th MW character for Smash. Thank you for coming to my TED Talk.

Disgaea Rep

Abstain on both - I have absolutely no knowledge of the Disgaea franchise, so I don't feel like I'm in a good position to judge both a rep's chances and my want for it.

Nominations: Rerate Kiryu xAll

Predictions:
Axel: 14%
Sakura: 21%

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Rayman

Chance: 10%
He's easily on the table, but that's more due to Ubisoft being very easy to work with. However, given that he's not very popular in Japan, despite being published by Nintendo there, I wouldn't have too much hope with him. There's also other Ubisoft characters(besides Rabbids, who I would only count as slightly possible because it's not a traditional costume, but a simple hat. It's a tiny difference, though. And even then, the other Mario + Rabbids versions are very much on the table and extremely popular anyway), like Ezio and Prince of Persia. He has some pretty strong competition as is.

Want: Abstain
I never played a Rayman game, so I really don't have a feel for the character. I don't dislike him or anything either, so him coming in would be a neutral response. That said, I do like the idea of special limb-based characters, and admit a Mii Costume with him could be also interesting. That said, there's a ton of fans so it'd be cool to see them happy.

Abstain on Sol Badguy

Disgaea

Chance: 1%
Disgaea is still an ongoing series, but the characters do quite rotate a bit, and I don't think there's a ton of fan demand that makes it obvious as a choice enough to consider, imo. I have little to say other than they wouldn't translate a lot of the jokes much since they're obviously for adults. They aren't stuff like religious things(I.E. Devil, Hell) so much as fairly inappropriate. It'd be easy to censor, and keep the quirky humor while keeping it Palutena/Bayonetta levels, I'm sure. But I only played a few games and don't know much of the less appropriate jokes to judge better. I feel like there's more likely choices as a whole, though.

Want: 100%
Sure, I didn't play much. But damn I love these characters. They're funny, quirky, and the jokes are stuff I enjoy overall. Plus, even a Prinny would be hilarious. Especially if throwing them in general into the air by an enemy caused them to do a self-explosion, dealing damage to everyone(including themselves, though slightly less). I haven't played in so long I barely remember the skills they use. I do remember they reference memes here and there, which admittedly would be fun to use.

Noms: Fulgore x 5

Predictions:
Axel 20%
Sakura 30%

 

[Yiptap]

Sorry I haven't been so active recently! Due to my negligence certain "events", I haven't posted here in a while. I'll make a last minute rating of yesterday's characters. (I'm a bit rusty at my rating, so my ratings may not be as organized.)

Next character: Chibi Marin from the hit game "The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening" for the Nintendo Switch.

Chance: 15%
It's possible, but not very. Breath of the Wild 2 is coming out soon, so the Zelda series has that going for them. Unfortunately, if what I heard is true, after Breath of the Wild 2 and the Game and Watch, there are no further plans for the Zelda series on the Nintendo Switch. It could very well be a cover-up, but based on Nintendo's actions, I think that statement is true. So in a bit, The Legend of Zelda series will become irrelevant on the current console. If we were to get a character, however, I think it would be a character from Breath of the Wild, like the champions or BOTW Zelda. But still, I don't see this happening. (As you can see, the low score is mostly gut feeling).

Want: 90%
The Legend of Zelda series is in dire need of a rep. I consider TLoZ to be one of Nintendo's "Big 3" alongside Mario and Pokémon, so I find it baffling that The Legend of Zelda hasn't gotten a character since Brawl. There are so many great choices to choose in this series as well! Skull Kid came from one of the most popular Zelda games, Impa is extremely important to the lore and is the most recurring character besides the characters we already have, and The Champions have great moveset potential after AoC. Hell, you could even add the Guardian as a WTF pick like Piranha Plant! Overall, I think The Legend of Zelda could have a great character if Nintendo were to give it one.

Noms: Meat Boy x All

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Prince of all Cosmos

The Prince of All Cosmos is Namco, not Ubisoft XD Did you mean Prince of Persia?

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

The Prince of All Cosmos is Namco, not Ubisoft XD

Oh, derp. I remember which one it is. Similar names. XD

Fixed. Thanks for pointing that out.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Raymoo Hackery. Hang on a sec...

Chance: 1% The single point is for his fan demand as Rayman became quite popular after the whole Artsy Omni thing way back then, but honestly, Rayman has a very, very bad hand dealt to him. For starters, the state of his franchise. Despite critical acclaim, Ubisoft only ever seemed to make a Rayman game whenever Michel Ancel felt like making a new game after Rayman Raving Rabbids, which is especially bad as he spent the last bunch of years working on Beyond Good and Evil 2 before retiring. I feel there are multiple factors here, the Rabbids being immensely popular to the point they overshadow him and even crossed over with Mario for 2 games with Rayman missing the boat entirely for the first game and not being seen in the second one at all, though to be fair all we have of that is the announcement trailer. There's also how Ubisoft's made so much more money with their new flagship franchises, Assassin's Creed and the Tom Clancy games, with Rayman only having had Origins and Legends in terms of new games in the last 18 years, the former even getting a Mii costume and was used as a red herring for Xander Mobus in Smash 4. Finally, it's probably not a coincidence that Rayman's fall from grace for the lack of a better term just so happened to be when people outside of Nintendo were sick and tired of platformers due to oversaturation. There's a slither of hope with the fact Rayman's model was sent to Nintendo for Smash 4, but I think this no longer matters as this was before Mario Rabbids and a little after Rayman Legends.

Want: 10% Honestly, I've played a bunch of Rayman games and I just don't feel it. Didn't like the first game, liked the console version for 3 while having mixed feelings on the GBA game and I just didn't click for Legends when I played it, the worst part is that what I think is super cool for Rayman, the power ups from 3, isn't what fans would want or expect from him in Smash and when looking at what he's mostly known for, I feel he's, well, boring. Just regular punches and kicks but without limbs, no missles or electrical bear trap hookshots, just the same basic stuff every other beloved platformer from the 90's pulls from with no wacky exaggerations from the last 2 games as Smash doesn't seem to do that a lot, though I still hope we get those electrical bear trap hookshots which is what the 10% is for instead of a 0 as goddamn, electrical bear trap hookshots are ****ing amazing and need to be in more games.

Dis guy, eh?

Chance: 1% When it comes to NIS, Disgaea is probably their biggest franchise as I remember their mascot being a Prinny from Disgaea, but that's not saying too much honestly as they are pretty small compared to most third party companies, especially the ones that get a lot of discussion, so it's looking fairly bad but the games are known for 1 thing, they are flashy as ****, so Sakurai could easily see it and go "Yo that's the good **** I'm putting it in". However, I feel that this is all the series has going for it as it's niche status means it's fanbase is small, and a small fanbase means Smash requests are either smaller or quieter which means Laharl and Prinnies don't seem to be very popular which affects my judgement.

Want: abstain, yet to play the series and I'm under the impression I should start woth the first game

THE SKY ABOVE THE CLOUDS A RAINBOW THAT FATE HAS DEVOURED
Add pic
I'm gonna craaaaaaaawl

Chance: 5% I'm a tad confident in this for a few reasons. For starters, ArcSys has pushed Guilty Gear a lot recently to the point I think it's safe to say that GG is in a golden age right now, while that doesn't mean much for Nintendo as Strive's not on Switch nor is the popular version of XXAC+R, Nintendo has contacted ArcSys for Smash for the Kunio spirits, meaning the possibility is certainly there, but another big thing is how Sol seems like the kind of character Sakurai would consider, he's got a rich legacy, has become quite popular as of late, clearly unique and has a very unique aesthetic that's not yet in the game, meaning the only reason he'd get shot down is low priority.

Want: 100% I ****ing love Guilty Gear, it is absolutely bat**** insane in terms of lore and gameplay with so many amazing characters, with Sol being one of my favourites to the point he's the only character I've played online for Strive and I think it's very safe to say he's my third most wanted character. While I'm not too sure on what would be the stage, though my hopes are the church Sol and Ky fight in or the Mayship, I'd be completely overjoyed with the music if he brought 30+ songs like the other FGC characters, I can see it now, Holy Orders, Writhe in Pain, Momentary Life, Meet Again, A Fixed Idea, Feel A Fear, Death and Republic, Heavy Day, Ride The Fire, Big Blast Sonic, I can go on and on but the OST is so unique, especially in the context of Smash. For how Sol would play, he'd be very aggressive, with a good mix of sword swings and melee attacks, but while also having **** like command inputs and an air dash which just sounds stupidly fun, especially if we put Dragon Install into the mix, a move that's sadly not on Sol in Strive, but I want to be able to go full on unga bunga with this character. This would be an absolute treat.

Split noms between Soma and Junpei

 

[fogbadge]

hmm abstain on these three. i could probably do a write on rayman with what i know but i dont want to. and i dont really know anything about the other two, though i do have some questions about guilty gear, i must remember to stop by the support thread some time.

anyway noms go to spirit events continue after pass

 

[Lyncario]

What kind of funny title do you want me to do with those 3 charactezrs togethers? If it was just Sol and Disgaea I could have made something, but with Rayman thrown in? Come on.

Remember you are blazing!

Chance: 5%

Sol has a fair ammount going for him. One of them is that he's pretty popular, but also that he would represent the anime fighter sub-genre. Plus, Arc Systems has no character yet in Smash, but they got spirits early on, meaning that ArcSys is on for Smash in at least some ways. This is pretty good. There's also how Guilty Gear Striven the lattest game of the series, is popular right now and just came out, so that's good for Sol's relevance too, but the previous Guilty Gear games were also popular too, even if not as much. And then comes the negative. First of all, Kazuya. While he doesn't really directly do anything against his chances, we only tend to get one character from a traditionnal fighting game each pass, and while the "only one character by genre" prediction isn't reliable for what we know as there's 2 jrpg characters we got in this pass back to back, it's also possible it goes against Sol's chances. And also the omst popular Guilty Gear game is from 2021, way after the dlc for Ultimate was decided. So in the end the pros slightly outweight the cons, so he got a decent chance for the last place considering it's the only place left, but I can also easily not see him make it in.

Want: 95%

I KNOW WHO I AM. THE MOONLIT LAKE TOLD ME. THIS. IS. WHO YOU ARE! MY FANGS ARE SO LONG, MY NAILS ARE SHARPER THAN ICE, THAT, IS, MEEEEEEEEEEEEEE! I wonder what that will prove? THAT IS BULL** BLAZING! STILL MY HEART IS BLAZING! IF THE WORDS KILLS ME I DON'T NEED A NEW, WORLD OOOOORDER, YOU... SOON YOU WILL KNOW, WE ALREADY, KNOW THE SMELL OF THE GAME! DO YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE? WHEN YOU SPEAK YOUR WORDS, DON'T, SOUD LIKE YOUR OWN? YOU'RE TRAPPED IN A DARK CELL CREATED BY THIS WORLD! THAT IS WHO YOU ARE! NORMS STANDARDS RULES AND GUIDELINESMUST BE KEPT SO TIME TO WAKE UP! GRAVITY KEEPS US ON THE GROUND! THAT IS BULL** BLAZING! STILL MY HEART IS BLAZING! Ok, I think that's enough to make you guys understand I love Smell of the Game. Such an amazing song. Because Sol would bring some incredible bangers alongside him. Not only that, but his moveset would be so fun once translated to Smash, though that could just be for me since I love fighting game characters in Smash, and I also love Guilty Gear. Also he has a giant sword that's more of a giant lighter, so that's cool. Also we could get Sol to fight like he used to for one last time but in Smash since he's not a gear anymore in canon. So yeah, I owuld like Sol in Smash a lot.

Baguetteman

Chance: 3%

Rayman's pros and cons are easily resumable and known at this point, or at least I guess so. But yeah, Rayman seems to have been a bit of a back-runner since Smash 4 since he had a trophy in it, Ubisoft and Nintendo have a good relationship with Rayman Legends being a Wii U exlclusive at first but also other stuff like Starfox Battle for Atlas, they would most likely be easy to work with and Rayman is decentl requested in the US, massively requested in Europe, and almost unknown in Japan, which is one of his biggest cons, alongside the fact that while being a back-runner is in theory nice, it's also not good in practice. And also the Ubisoft miis could be bad for him, but with Kazuya it also seems more of an "idk" type of situation. Rayman is also pretty known in the west but not at all in Japan, and also has that tiny problem that is that Ubisoft just doesn't care about him anymore, with how his last game dates from 2014, and while it got ported a lot, it's still not great, especialy compared to Sol, someone from Disgaea, Crash, and many more. He still has a bit of a chance in my opinion, but it's not great. Also I don't buy into the Rayman conspiracy theory there is in any way anymore.

Want: 100%

Yeah so I'm french, this already gives me a bit of a personnal connection to Rayman since he's most likely the most popular french videogame character in the world (by that I mean characters made in France, not a character stated to be french. He's also one of those video game hero I have known since my childood, In fact, Rayman has pretty much been the one character I wanted in Smash since I've even known about Smash, so he was my first most wanted ever, even if now he's number 5. So yeah, I would like Rayman to get in Smash for multiple reasons, except for the fact that Ubisoft has been exposed as a terrible company for it's employees, and I'm still holding it up against them in the way I'm not buying their products anymore, and if I really want something they made I would be getting it from second hand now. But other than that, I'm all in for Rayman in Smash.

Disageagaeagaga

Abstain

I feel a bit burned out right now. I already took a break between writing the sections for Sol and Rayman, and then another between Rayman and Disgaea, so I feel like I shouldn't continute too much. I don't know why either, it's kinda annoying.

Nominaitons

Virtual idols like Miku x everything thos got me

Predictions

Axel: 8.4%

Sakura: 12.6%

 

[GoodGrief741]

The Detachable Kid

Chance: 15%
I guess I'm the outlier here but I think Rayman's odds aren't bad. He's from a small franchise which is precisely what we should be looking for. The Assassin's Creed Miis are no longer a concern after Kazuya. And Ubisoft is on good terms with Nintendo currently, with another collaboration in the form of Mario + Rabbids 2.

Rayman is a pretty popular character which is probably why he'd be included. It wouldn't be due to the state of the franchise, which is what keeps me on putting him in the same category as the characters we've been rating, most of which have new games that make them double as promotional picks. I'm not about to call it dead because you can never tell with Ubisoft; just when you think they've turned into a Tom Clancy machine they announce a new Watch Dogs and a Prince of Persia revival, and just when you think they're cool again they turn AC into a live service forever game and reveal 7 projects featuring Sam Fisher (0 of which are actual Splinter Cell games). Michel Ancel, Rayman's creator, left Ubisoft, but then again many creatives are as Ubisoft is in a transitional period (hopefully one that leaves the company a better place). So it looks grim for Rayman but I doubt he'll be gone forever.

One argument I've seen a lot today is that Rayman wouldn't have gotten in over other Western characters, so if they're out then so is Rayman. I fail to see the logic in that argument. First of all it presumes that all Western characters are in contention for one slot. That is not only false but if true would have disconfirmed all Western characters long ago since we already have one in the pass. Second, even if there was a competition, Smash has numerous examples of characters getting in over others in the same genre/category that should by all logic have gotten in first. Finally, I think it's absolutely reductive and ignores the reasons he would get in are completely different from the ones that other Western characters would get in. Rayman is one of the few ballot-popular Western characters I can think of, as the majority of the big ones discussed today took of in 2019 at the earliest. He is, nowadays, mainly associated with Nintendo, contrasting with most Western characters' console-agnosticness. Ubisoft is closer to Nintendo than the other Western companies (even if thankfully attitudes towards the Switch are slowly being changed). This isn't meant to posit how Rayman was actually likelier than all the other characters he'd been pitted against, but rather that they aren't in the same category at all beyond the fact that they're Western creations.

Want: 75%
I don't care for Rayman. As a character he's just bland and unlike the majority I couldn't get into his 2D games, which means I don't like over half of his series. But I can respect that he has a big fanbase and if we can get one popular character in this Pass that'd be cool even if it's not for me.

Contrite Cog

Chance: 5%
Sol is the star of Guilty Gear, a long-running, acclaimed and influential fighting game franchise. He's one of the frontrunners for Arc System Works, a prolific Japanese developer that already has content in Ultimate thanks to the Kunio Spirits. Guilty Gear Strive, the latest game, released recently to (from what I've seen) great reviews.

Still I think some major issues hold him back. The first is that Strive isn't on the Switch. I can't imagine why it wouldn't be able to run on the Switch, as Dragon Ball FighterZ does. I guess like that game they might be holding back a port for a later release (makes sense, they get to fine-tune things like the frame rate and then they also get to sell it as the portable version of the game and attract double dippers), but still, kinda weird. It by no means implies a bad relationship between Nintendo and ArcSys, we're getting all those beat-em-ups after all, but I'd think that something would've been worked out if Sol was planned for Smash. There's also the matter of Kazuya, I don't think they'd release two fighting game characters back to back. I know JRPG rep have done so, but, and I doubt this is a very original accusation, that genre kinda gets special treatment nowadays. Still, Sol's possible, but I wouldn't call him a darkhorse anymore.

Want: 90%
He ****ing rad.

For Disgaea I just quoted my old post since with some minor adjustments it still captures my thoughts.

Get a load of Disgaea

Chance: 15% 10%
Disgaea is a bit on the niche side, sure, but honestly that's along the lines of what I'm expecting from the last 2 fighters. It's an easy frontrunner for Nippon Ichi, which always helps. Nippon Ichi itself, while not the biggest publisher, is prolific, and has enough stuff on Nintendo systems where I would say they have a healthy working relationship with Nintendo (especially if you count NIS America). Certainly a lot more than some heavily speculated companies like Ubisoft and Acti-Blizz, for what it's worth. Disgaea 6 coming out at just the right time seems like a good omen at least, and imo Nintendo has really advertised it. Not that it would be a promotional rep, and I doubt Nintendo got inside knowledge on its development or anything, but it keeps the franchise relevant and talks with Nintendo ongoing at least. I'd put this firmly in darkhorse territory.

Want: 70%
I played a lot of Disgaea as a kid, as an Earthbound fan I've always liked my RPGs on the wackier side of the spectrum. Let's just say that Disgaea might actually be on the end of that spectrum. It's completely over the top and boisterous and tries its hardest to be as insane as it can be, but there is deep and rewarding gameplay hidden underneath all the humor. I actually haven't played the latest games, heard good things, maybe 6 is a good time to get back on the franchise. But, going back to Smash, yeah, Laharl in Smash would be neat. Not super hype but an understandable addition that I'd be able to appreciate personally.

Noms: Todd Mother****ing Snap x10
Beatrice prediction: 3.95%

Sakura prediction: 12.34%
Axel prediction: not sure if he'll be high like most Sega characters have been or low because of that. I guess I'll go high with 14.78%
Noms: Octoling

 

[BowserKing]

Ray-Man

Chance: 25%. So far, Ray-Man’s chance has not lowered at all. In fact, Min-Min getting in has increased Ray-Man’s chance of being playable. The again, lots of things are possible.

Want: 100%. Ray-Man would totally be fun to play as, and I can see him, Greninja and female Byleth fight the likes of Bowser, King Dedede and Mewtwo, Among others. Overall, Ray-Man joining smash would totally be hype worthy.

Sol

Chance: 10%. His chance has not changed much since our last voting. There is also a chance of him being a Mii Costume, but lots of things are possible.

Want: 50% He would be fun to play as, and I can see him fight Snake. Overall, he would make a decent Smash Bros rep, perhaps even more.

Disgaea rep

Chance: 10%. While the newest game could give them a chance, said game is quite recent. But then again, we seen more impossible characters get in, so it should not be a stretch.

Want: 50%. A rep would be fun to play as, and depending on the rep, I can think of quite a bit of scenarios, but there is too much to list. Overall, a rep from that game would make a decent Smash Bros rep.

Prediction: Sakura (10%) and Axel (5%)

Noms: 5 for Echo: Bowser, 5 for Lugia and 5 for Stage: Bowser’s Castle

 

[DanganZilla5]

Looking at Drifloon and GoodGrief's arguments, I've decided to increase Rayman's chance score to 5%, the same score I've given to other western characters. I still have my doubts but the strong arguments in terms of the ballot characters being favored and the fact that several of the highly speculated characters have only gotten a lot of traction in recent years while Rayman got a big head start did turn my head.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Concept: Zelda newcomer/King Boo/Gooigi pre-Rayman/Sol Badguy/Concept: Disgaea rep

[Rerate] Louie x490
Mii Costume: 2B x455
Octoling x438
Pyramid Head x435
Junpei (Zero Escape) x326
Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku x325
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x315
Meat Boy x305

300 - 251

Corvo Attano x295
Tetra x260
Senator Armstrong x260

250 - 201

Ori x240
Gunvolt x225
Ratchet & Clank x215
Giygas x205

200 - 151

[Rerate] Kiryu x195
Stage: Bowser's Castle x192
Boss: Rayquaza x190
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x190
Sackboy x185
[Rerate] Tails x185
Kaede Akamatsu x180

150 - 101

Echo (Bowser) x148
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x138
Boss: Ender Dragon x138
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Fulgore x132
Stage: Tetris x120
D.Va x115
[Rerate] Gene x110
Concept: Crazy Taxi character x105
Concept: Spirit Events continue after the Fighter Pass x105

100 - 51

Soma Cruz x99
Legends Trainer x90
Concept: Next game is not a reboot x85
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
[Rerate] Eggman x76
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x75
Echo (Olimar) x66
Magolor x65
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x65
Ghirahim x60
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai x55

50 - 25

[Rerate] Agumon x50
Plague Knight x50
Springtrap x50
[Rerate] Sora x49
Off The Hook x45
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
E.M.M.I. x40
Lugia x35
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x30
Joe Random (MLB: The Show) x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25
Concept: Destroy All Humans content x25
DJ Octavio x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Bonus Fighter x20
Donbe and Hikari x20
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x16
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Echo: Ms. Pac-Man x15
[Rerate] Ezio Auditore da Firenze x15
Concept: Bonus Stages to fill out the stage select screen x15
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse Faden x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Omori x10
Mii Costume: Among Us x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
Concept: Tsukihime rep x5
Concept: Challenger Pack with more than 15 spirits x5
Arcueid Brunestud (Tsukihime) x5
Firebrand x1

Mii Costume: 2B cuts through Octoling to reclaim second place. Junpei runs past Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku and escapes to fifth place. Danganronpa protagonist passes Meat Boy and ends the day in sixth.

Giygas warps past 200 noms.

Concept: Spirit Events continue after the Fighter Pass has collected more than 100 noms.

DJ Octavio hits 25 noms.

Today's new concepts are Destroy All Humans content, with 25 noms, and Rhythm Heaven rep, worth 15.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Raymoo Hackery.

DADADA DADADA DADADA DA DAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!

 

[Neosonic97]

Raymoo Hackery.

Maiden's Capriccio intensifies

Anyway, I'm abstaining on Disgaea and Sol Badguy.

A man? A vegetable? No... a thingamajig.
Chance: 5%
Rayman's in a very bad spot right now. Between his series' dormancy since Rayman Legends, the aforementioned Rayman Legends flopping miserably in Japan (not exactly helped by Rayman being almost completely unknown in Japan- it's a miracle in and of itself that Smash acknowledged Rayman's existence at all), and of course the fact that he's basically been completely and utterly overshadowed by The Rabbids, and of course the fact that we're more likely to get an Assassin's Creed rep before a Rayman rep. The stars already aligned once for Rayman to even be acknowledged by Smash- I don't see the stars aligning for him AGAIN. Fan Demand is about the only thing he has going for him.

Want: 40%
Rayman doesn't really have much in the way of possibly interesting gimmicks, if I'm being honest. It's mostly his limbs, but even then that doesn't really mean much other than long disjoints for a fist-fighter. He probably wouldn't even get anything like Banjo's Wonderwing, and there's only so much you can do with just punches, kicks and helicopter hair- especially not helped since the whole 'disjointed punches' thing is already done by Min Min, who has her two-arms and arm swapping to augment this. He'd be alright, I guess? Nothing too special, though.

 

[DynoStretch]

Rayman - As neat as it would be to get Rayman, I don't think his chances are all that high. He really feels like a 'base roster' fighter, as he doesn't really have much in the way of unique mechanic potential. Plus I doubt Nintendo would be interested in selecting him at this point.

Sol Badguy - ...okay, no offense to anyone here, I know there's probably some deep symbolic reason for it, but this is one of the stupidest names I've heard for a character. With that out of the way, I don't really think were going to get another fighting game rep in this pass.

Disgaea rep - I would honestly love this, and is probably the most plausible of these three. I know most people would automatically pick a main character like Laharl or a popular one like Etna, but I honestly would love to see the fighter be a Prinny, that would be a hilarious and unexpected way to end the pass. I'd also love the crazy soundtrack it would come with.

 

[Sari]

Rayman

Chance: 10%
Nintendo and Ubisoft's relationship is nothing to scoff at. The two have seemingly been getting closer and closer over the years and the fact that we're getting a second Mario & Rabbids game helps to show this. I think a Ubisoft character getting into Smash is inevitable at some point, though the main questions are: who and when?

There's 3 characters who I see as the most obvious choices for a Ubisoft rep in Smash: Rayman, an Assassin's Creed rep, and Rabbids. All of these are popular names on their own and even have representation in Ultimate. AC and Rabbids are seemingly out for Ultimate since they got costume'd (Ezio still exists though IIRC Altair was always the more popular one in Japan) so right now that just leaves Rayman.

The primary issue for me with Rayman is his lack of Japanese popularity. I can already see some people rolling their eyes at this, but really I don't think it's something that can just be ignored - both for Rayman and for any other character. Japan is one of the Nintendo's biggest areas of profit, so for them to have a character that has flat-out bombed there as DLC is just something I can't see happening. Now I don't think the issue would be as bad if we were talking about base game since we have cases like Little Mac, but for paid DLC it's just hard to see happening.

It's not just for Japan either where I think an issue like this can hurt a character's chances: not doing well (or just not being available) in North America and/or Europe was something that I mentioned when we rated Ayumi and Euden (and will definitely mention when we rate Sakura tomorrow). Of course, Rayman has done well in the West so perhaps he can overcome this hurdle of the final character is more low key? Possibly, but so far we've only gotten two true Western reps: one is from literally the biggest game in history and the other has been a massive Smash request since Smash 64. It could happen but even after Steve and Banjo I'm not too confident in Western characters.

There's also the peculiar case of the Ubisoft costumes we got alongside Byleth. On one hand this most likely doesn't mean anything after Kazuya, but on the other hand we did get a Dragonborn costume after the Vault Boy one (both from Bethesda) and the same thing could happen to Rayman. So while I don't see the Ubisoft costumes as a bad thing anymore, I don't particularly see them as a good sign either. Speaking of costumes...

I'm getting some major Shantae vibes from Rayman to the point where I'm expecting him to be mii costume'd. Both were popular ballot-era characters with a loud Western fanbase but are plagued by their own set of issues. We even have some precedent for limbless costumes because of the Minecraft Pig mii costume. If we rated the chances of that then I'd probably give it at least an 80% since I think it's the most likely outcome for Rayman right now. It could even be used as a way to get Rayman more popular in Japan without committing him to an entire character.

And before you say "you just want him as a costume to mock him!", Quote is my most wanted character ever and I'd be down with him getting costume'd so zip it.

I'll end things by saying that if Rayman doesn't get anything in CP11 then I see him having a much harder time for the next game than he did for Ultimate. He was pretty much the only talked about Ubisoft choice in the Smash 4 days, but things have definitely changed over the past couple of years. With AC and Rabbids getting costumes, Rabbids getting multiple base game spirits along with the single Rayman one, and the Rayman series becoming more dormant with each year, more Ubisoft characters are stepping up to the plate when it comes to being in Smash.

Want: 60%
I've played some more of Legends. It's far from a bad game but I find myself having a hard time getting into it. I feel like I'd enjoy the 3D games more. Rayman himself seems like he could be a fun & simple character where I wouldn't mind if got in. However I should note that I've been eyeing up the Assassin's Creed series for a while now and would probably be more interested in someone like Ezio.

-----

Sol Badguy

Chance: 1%
I don't see us getting another fighting game character in this pass after we just got Kazuya. It's one thing to get multiple characters in the same genre, but getting two simultaneous characters with fighting game input mechanic in the same pass is something I don't see happening.

I don't think the comparisons to Joker/Hero and Sephiroth/Pythra are the same as this situation. Both of those of those pairs of characters are completely unique from each other despite being in the same genre. Sol would of course be completely unique from Kazuya, but the fighting game input mechanic is such a specific way to play a character. Because of this I feel Kazuya and Sol would be too similar when it comes to marketing. Perhaps if Kazuya was revealed earlier in the pass then I could see another fighting game character happening later on. But one fighting game character followed by another is something that would genuinely surprise me.

Want: Abstain
I have yet to really get into the GG series. It looks fun (and also super confusing in terms of lore) so I feel like I would enjoy it. But right now, I'm going to abstain from a score since I would have a much better feel of Sol Badguy once I give his series a try.

-----

Abstaining on Disgaea

-----

Sakura chance prediction: 5.00%
Axel chance prediction: 10.00%

Nominations:
Mii Costume: 2B x10
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x10

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Abstaining on Disgea

No arms. No legs. Huge features
Chance: 12%
Despite the fact that we literally have one last character left, I'd say he's in the now in the best position he's been in a while. Mario x Rabbids 2 reaffirms the strong cooporation between Ninty and Ubi and on top of that the argument that the Ubisoft costumes hurt him been totally trashed after Kazuya. Worth to mention's that he also survived the recent Mii wave, one that specifically targeted fan favorite third-party requests. Not saying he won't end up being one but if Shantae's popularity is something to adress then I feel they woud've done the same for Rayman.

Arguments that series like Assassins Creed and the Rabbids would get in first never really made sense to me in a world were we have Banjo-Kazooie on the roster instead of someone like Master Chief. Besides, those series have been costume'd anyway even if Kazuya makes Ezio a non-zero possibility. Despite the Rayman series being viewed as dead or ignored, Ubisoft still seems to endorse him specifically to appear as a fighter. They choose to send those models to the Smash 4 dev team instead of some Rabbid or AC protag despite those series having games on Wii U as well, they'd also go on to approve the Spirit. I also recall that one Ubisoft QnA bot that mentioned hoping so see Rayman in Smash, with that statement eventually being altered to have that removed. While I don't to draw conclusions from that, I believe it hints that if Ubisoft got a character at least some people over there would want it to be remain, even if there are no Rayman games in development and his creator turned out to be a ****head. That last part didn't stop Steve didn't it?

Of course, whenever Rayman is talked about, Japan gets brought up. I won't sugercoat it, his performance over there is embarrasing and it's without a doubt the biggest thing going against him but I'm not sure how much it matters at this point. We've had characters that got in solely due to western demand before, like Ridley. Little Mac is also considered obscure over there. I get that those are base game first-party picks and Rayman would be a third-party DLC character which profits would have to be shared but since we're talking the final character here, with Vol 2 having likely nearly sold the amount it would have in its lifetime, adding Rayman now might anger some Japanese fans but it won't really impact the revenue this pass earned as a whole. Even if Rayman as a individual DLC pack flops spectacularly in Japan, I wouldn't view that as something damaging to the Nintendo/Ubisoft bond.

Want: 95%
I think I've wanted this for more than a decade at this point. Rayman was the original want for me He might not be a Bandana Dee or Hollow Knight but he's such a nostalgic figure to me that I can't not stick to him till the very end. After mostly dormancy these recent years it would be nice to have this be a sort of comeback. He'd bring a ton of personality, a unique attribute that the dev team could do wonders with and some groovy tracks from a wide range of genres. He's a beloved icon to many people and just seems like a nice, uncontroversial pick to end Smash Ultimate on.

Sol
Chance: 2%
Getting two complex fighting game characters in a row as the end to the DLC just sounds really doubtfull to me. There's also no sign of Strive coming to Switch. Sure, that's not required but since we have other Guilty Gear and ArcSys games already on there, they'd be pretty stupid to not have that game confirmed by now if Sol was coming to Smash.

Want: 5%
All the experience I have with GG is owning the original on Switch, playing it for about a week before growing frustrated w it I think. Perhaps I'd like to try out more of the franchise or atleast jump on the Strive train before it's too late? Sol seems neat but wouldn't be that exciting to me. Kazuya preceding him doesn't help much.

Sakura: 4.75%
Axel: 8.26%
Bandana Dee x15

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain on Rayman and Sol.

Concept: Disgaea rep
Chance: 20%
I'll be honest, I do think NIS is slightly slept on in terms of Smash. They've been one of the biggest supporters of the Switch, even having Disgaea 6 be Switch-exclusive outside Japan (though that might be at least partially due to apparently having a fallout with Sony). Heck, Nintendo has even been willing to help promote the series, having one of the games get a free trial for NSO users. However, as with every other character, the fact that this is the final character definetly hurts the chances to a degree. This is especially true due to how small NIS in general is, let alone Disgaea. While I wouldn't be surprised if it happened, I also wouldn't be surprised if it didn't.

Abstain on want. I feel bad for abstaining here, given I run the Disgaea Support Thread, but I'm getting this late as is, and am still tired from work today.

Nominations: Concept: Danganronpa protagonist xMax

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Abstain on Disgaea and Sol Badguy, though I will notice for the latter that he has that raw cool factor to make him a Sepiroth-tier addition to me despite the lack of connection to GG

Ray-Man Chance: 15%
Alright so others basically said what I wanted to say:

-Nintendo and Ubisoft are buddies, and if we’re doing speculation based on company reps (which has been a common occurence this cycle with the Capcom Craze), Ubisoft and thus Ray-Man is in a very comfortable spot. Having Mii Costumes in already also gives them a hand in second-chance theory and a boost post-Kazuya.

-Ray-Man is in the same boat as Shantae and ballot favorites that got half-heartedly added in base game of all things with Spirits. Ray-Man furthermore also has his seniority from Smash 4. This to me makes him at least missing in the DLC cycle since he hasn’t been Miid in either the “popular character wave” or the Ubisoft wave, which smells like shenanigans. Obviously, he can easily be a Mii Costume or another Ubisoft character can take the slot but to me Ubisoft is missing from FP2 and Ray-Man with it.

-To me, the state of the franchise doesn’t matter as much. Ray-Man is a mascot to Ubisoft and thus automatically gets a share in chances with other Ubisoft reps, alongside the fact he has the Smash-related relevance of being a Spirit and icon.

-What helps Ray-Man get the edge over Crash, in case they are in competition, is that Ray-Man’s popularity doesn’t have the issue of potentially being too late to take into consideration, being a decent ballot pick as well as being steady enough. He’s also low-key enough for it to be understandable that they‘d rather showcase Kazuya at the end.

Overall, Ray-Man is a big character from a company already repped in Smash, which made him an excellent choice for last wave’s Mii Costume round. The fact he is still not in that role to me puts him in a Lloyd-like limbo that can be solved in multiple ways, but has a high chance to be addressed according to my gut feeling. Playability is but one of these ways.

Nominations go to Off the Hook

Sakura: 3.33%
Axel: 2.77%

 

[GoodGrief741]

Calcs

Concept: Zelda newcomer
8.96% Chance - 83.81% Want
Last time we rated this it got 26.20% chance and 80.41% want. This was in the lead-up to Min Min's reveal, and it's obvious that we all expected the new game to release this year given that chance score.
The winner of predictions was WeirdChillFever with 7.89%
This rerate puts this concept at the top of want for concepts, and second overall behind Phoenix Wright.

King Boo
10.18% Chance - 56.50% Want
Last time we rated him he got 13.50% chance and 43.07% want. Not a lot has changed there and we rated him before even Byleth.
The winners of predictions were Perkilator and Sari with a precise 10.00%
Did not expect him to top Zelda in chance.

Gooigi
2.67% Chance - 45.75% Want
The winner of predictions was again WeirdChillFever with 2.22%
Gooigi is our latest inductee into the Less Likely Than Goku club (and the first one since before E3).

Spoiler: List of extra noms

3BitSaurus 5
Artix 15
Awakining 5
BowserKing 10
Dan Quixote 10
DaUsername 212
Delzethin 5
Inue Houji 74
Mr. MR 75
NintenRob 5
Nemuresu 10
Ninjaed 20
Perkilator 10
Ridrool64 25
Sari 5
SKX31 55
Troykv 15
waddledeeonredyoshi 20
WeirdChillFever 10
Wunderwaft 5

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

So now that GoodGrief741 did the calcs, can we move on?

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Sakura Shinguji from Sakura Wars and Axel Stone from Streets of Rage/Bare Knuckle.

Predict Andy from Advance Wars and Ashley from WarioWare.

Megadoomer

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Music for today:

Sakura

Spoiler: Sakura Wars Music

Axel

Spoiler: Streets of Rage Music

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Axel the Blue

Chance: 1% A lot of people believe Axel to be a darkhorse which is fair as given the reasoning for Sakura (I wrote her segment first), Axel is also getting a revival with Streets of Rage 4 and unlike Sakura Wars, SoR4 caught on and is successful, one key thing is that SoR is a beat em up, something we don't have yet if you ask me, beat em ups are one of the more standout genres from the 90s one can argue Axel has a lot of missing ground he can cover, but again, like Sakura, I really don't see Nintendo going out of their way to help with a series revival as Smash's effect of revitalizing IPs is vastly overstated. The big thing to me is that there's a lot of other characters that'd be prioritized, especially Kiryu, who's also owned by Sega while Yakuza is primarily a 3D beat em up and didn't need a revival

Want: 70% Only experience with Streets of Rage is Streets of Kamurocho but Axel looks cool, the music slaps and most importantly, play style. For those who don't know, special moves in SoR cost HP to use, and the inherent risk vs reward dynamic of survivabilty vs damage which is inherently exciting to watch and experience, Axel also has a unique move which doesn't cost HP iirc meaning you can also make him into an equally fun and interesting idea with EX moves meaning they become better at a player's choice, Cloud kind of did this with Limit but significantly less downtime between potential EXs.

Segata Sanshiro's fiancé

Chance: 1% Sakura Wars is in an incredibly weird spot honestly, the series was met with critical acclaim in Japan and seems to have helped push dialogue choices in dating sims or something? I'm going off the top of my head so I moght be misinformed, buy it sounds like something we could get but at the same time, the series only has 2 localized games to it's name and the series infamously underperformed when it comes to the attempted revival, the failed gacha having cost millions iirc, though one can very easily argue that the failed revival wouldn't mean anything as the negotiations would already be set in stone, it does beg the question if Nintendo would truly go out of there way to help push Sega's revival as despite what most people would have you believe, Smash has very little influence on franchises making a comeback with Fire Emblem, the most common reason for the mindset, apmost dying inbetween Brawl and Smash 4 before saving itself and Kid Icarus Uprising not being made because of fan demand but because the IP hadn't been used in so long with no sequel or even a port in sight after about 9 and a half years.

Want: abstain, too unfamiliar and I'm not sure where to start the series proper

Split noms between Soma and Junpei

 

[DanganZilla5]

Sakura of the Flower Division

Chance: 4%

To help refresh people on Sakura War's history, the original came out on the Dreamcast and it was an ambitious project. It blended the visual novel, RPG, and dating sim genres together to create something that was unique at the time. It ended up being one of the most successful games on the console and it spawned a whole multimedia franchise. Sakura Wars does have some merits such as Sega localizing more of the material in recent years and the soft reboot came out in 2019, putting the series in the limelight for the consideration period for fighter pass 2.

But unfortunately I can't give a higher rating than this even though I want to. The series has numerous disadvantages when it comes to its chances to getting into Smash. For one, only two of the games have been localized so far. For a lot of the series' lifespan it was exclusively in Japan and a few other countries and even to this day it's relatively unknown in the West. While Sakura Wars is quite popular in Japan we, of course, have to bring up that Sakurai has rejected characters before for being internationally obscure and Sakura Wars is quite obscure, as well as being a niche product. But another big issue is competition. Looking at Sega's library of more low-key picks, there is still series like SMT, Puyo Puyo, and Phantasy Star, all of which have made a more notable impact outside of Japan. In other words, Sakura Wars struggles to stand out from the crowd and while it certainly has its merits, I have a hard time imagining Nintendo going for it, unfortunately.

Want: 75%

I know a lot of people would be mad at this but personally I'm totally down for Sakura Wars making it into Smash. It has a legacy, mechs, a charming world brimming with likable characters, and fantastic music. I have yet to play the original games due to them not being localized (Though the original got a fan translation so I'll try that eventually). But I've had the honor of playing the PS4 game. I can't compare it to the rest of the series yet but on it's own it's an enjoyable game. If they can figure out a way to make the mechs work in Smash then by all means give me that because I love me some mechs.

_________________________

Streets that are full of raging people beating the **** out of each other

Chance: 10%

What do you see when you look up classic beat em up games? You see Streets of Rage. It is a quintessential title of the genre. One of the most popular series on the Sega Genesis, it made a name for itself and is one of the titles that is consistently acknowledged as a requirement for Genesis compilations. But is it likely for Smash? Not really. I think there is a decent chance due to its legacy alone but the thing is even though Streets of Rage was all the rage back then, it shockingly died after the Genesis era and didn't get another game until 2020, and at that point the pass was already decided. Even if Nintendo knew that the game was coming at the time, it likely would still be seen as a risk to choose a character from a series that was dormant for decades and doesn't have too much substantial demand. I do think consistent popularity is an important factor and unfortunately Axel Stone doesn't have much to counterbalance that aside from his legacy. In addition, there is the stiff competition within Sega that I mentioned above.

Want: 75%

What can I say? I love me some beat em ups and it would be so cool to get a rep from the genre. Streets of Rage totally deserves to get in. Plus I'm a sucker for the Genesis' library so I would be happy with another one of its classic titles represented in Smash. And you know, the music is bangin'.

Predictions:
Andy - 12%
Ashley - 13%

Noms: Destroy All Humans content x20