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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 630: Rayman, Sol Badguy (Guilty Gear), and Concept: Disagea Newcomer

Neosonic97

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Dec 18, 2018
Messages
301
Abstaining. It's been far too long since I last played League of Legends to possibly get anything right about it.
 
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SKX31

Smash Master
Joined
Feb 22, 2019
Messages
3,064
Location
Sweden
League of Legends:

Chance: 6 %

As for League's chanches, I'm going a bit more optimistic than 3Bit, and that's entirely down to all companies involved (Riot + their owner Tencent, Nintendo) oftentimes going by the beat of their own drum. Tencent is very much comparable to Facebook / Activision: oftentimes they go 100 % in on the promotional angle when they get new releases or whatever. A prime example being Pokemon Unite, which Tencent develop and they're going for another big announcement tomorrow. Riot also release stuff on their own whim, such as new characters in the game or additional songs or whatever. Which they can afford to do when their fanbase is pretty much global and follow LoL primarily. Nintendo may participate in E3s, but are no strangers to shadowdrops or Directs announced seemingly randomly.

Nintendo have also started a multi-pronged partnership with Tencent - something I've followed closely since it could be another long-term partnership such as Nintendo's work with Microsoft, so that's what's keeping LoL afloat. It helps that Riot are very much open to the prospect of one of their characters in Smash.

Make no mistake though, I don't consider LoL a frontrunner by any stretch of the imagination. Its biggest claim of fame is certainly not the characters' lore, but for being a competitive game with its biggest strength being its social component (5 friends playing together and all that). Which in itself creates a somewhat noticeable obstacle for the newcomers wondering who the hell the characters are and what they do outside of running around in a proverbial arena. The relative lack of notable sidegames until recently doesn't really help not only due to that, but also since LoL has remained PC-centric.

For me it comes entirely down to if LoL's imminent appearance on the Switch - Ruined King and other side games - are followed by additional stuff. The potential time window where Nintendo could talk with Tencent / Riot re: Smash is pretty damn small - we're talking 2017 at the earliest to 2019 - and that's good reason to doubt it all. Still, I'm not counting it out until the final character is revealed.

Want 75 %

Okay, I'm putting the want score so high not just because it would open the proverbial door for my MW (I'm seriously considering just pooling all my extra noms towards that if it ever gets a Nintendo appearance, but because LoL has established itself as a long-lasting game by this point and has a lot of well-rounded characters.

So yeah, I'm fully open to it.

[Noms: Reimu x5: Very late edit: Didn't realise she was part of the fixed schedule.]
Predictions: Rean 5 %, Adol 7 %, Estelle 4 %
 
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Pillow

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 20, 2013
Messages
1,264
Location
Los Angeles
Chances - 5%
So let's start with the things going in LoL's favor. For one, it's obviously huge. In terms of overall worldwide popularity, LoL is one of, if not the most popular game in the world. Secondly, Riot has been aggressively expanding their brand with the release of several new titles in the last couple of years, as well as the announcement of several upcoming once like a fighting game and MMO, and even stuff like Netflix animations and tabletop board games. I have no doubt that they'd love to see a League character in Smash Bros given the chance.

So with all these factors in its favor, why is the rating so low? Quite simply because while LoL is popular, especially in other Asian countries like Korea and China, its footing in Japan isn't quite as solid (not to say it's unheard of there or anything). Japan, and Nintendo has always been more closely tied to console gaming. I know some upcoming Riot games are supposed to come to the Switch, but I think the timing of those releases are off for Ultimate specifically. There's also the issue of China itself, as while Riot is an American company, it's owned by and largely influenced by Tencent a large Chinese gaming company. It's quite possible that Nintendo doesn't want to get mixed up in the business of a large Chinese company for legitimate political reasons.

Want - 10%
I've been a LoL player since Season 1, going on 11 years now. I'm very familiar with the game, and I do quite like its characters. I just don't want to see them in Smash. Basically the reason is because I struggle to divorce any League champion from the League players that play them, unlike the entire Smash roster where I just see the character itself. With the exception of the fighting game characters, the Smash roster is pretty much entirely focused on characters who are from single player games without other people muddling the experience up. Plus I always associated Smash with console gaming icons more than gaming icons (yes, I know Steve exists but he largely transcends the whole PC game thing). It also largely depends on which League hero we're getting and there's a lot to pick from. I'm not really big on Ahri, and that seems to be the favorite, so if it's her then I particularly don't care for it.

Noms:
xMax Miku
 

SharkLord

Smash Hero
Joined
Jun 20, 2020
Messages
6,976
Location
Pangaea, 250 MYA
It's quite possible that Nintendo doesn't want to get mixed up in the business of a large Chinese company for legitimate political reasons.
To be fair, Nintendo's actively collaborating with Tencent directly to distribute Switches and make Pokemon Unite, plus a Tencent-hosted Chinese Ring Fit Direct. Maybe a bit soon for Smash, but I think we can say they've already gotten involved in Tencent's business (Unless that's not what you were referring to?)
 

Pillow

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 20, 2013
Messages
1,264
Location
Los Angeles
To be fair, Nintendo's actively collaborating with Tencent directly to distribute Switches and make Pokemon Unite, plus a Tencent-hosted Chinese Ring Fit Direct. Maybe a bit soon for Smash, but I think we can say they've already gotten involved in Tencent's business (Unless that's not what you were referring to?)
This is true, but this is the reverse situation of Tencent utilizing Nintendo IP to make a game. In Smash it would be Nintendo having to borrow Riot IP.
 

SharkLord

Smash Hero
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Jun 20, 2020
Messages
6,976
Location
Pangaea, 250 MYA
This is true, but this is the reverse situation of Tencent utilizing Nintendo IP to make a game. In Smash it would be Nintendo having to borrow Riot IP.
Maybe I don't know enough about how corporate deals work, but if the issue is Nintendo getting involved with a Chinese megacorp, then any sort of IP cross-usage seems like involvement enough to say "Yeah, they're fine with this." No matter who's using what, they'd need to work out a deal and would probably have to share profits (At least, I'm pretty sure that's how it goes?), so Tencent using Nintendo IPs and Nintendo using Riot IPs don't seem like they have much of a divide.
 
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GoodGrief741

Smash Hero
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
9,724
Wasn't the Yuri day a double noms day? Shouldn't I still have 84 bonus noms then? Or did I get penalized for not rating Conker high enough :4pacman:
From what I gather you used them on the Conker/Riptor double day. You gave 15 noms, which was more than the day cap, so I assumed the intention was to use extra noms. If I was wrong I guess there's no harm in you getting them back and substracting them Ratchet & Clank, if that's what you'd prefer.
Normally I would say the fixed schedule is kind of locked, but in this case it feels like something that would make things better, at least for Granblue fans. Sure.
While we're at it can I request that we change the "SMTV protagonist" part? We now know his name is Nahobino.
 

TCT~Phantom

Smash Master
Joined
Dec 10, 2013
Messages
3,294
NNID
TCT~Phantom
From what I gather you used them on the Conker/Riptor double day. You gave 15 noms, which was more than the day cap, so I assumed the intention was to use extra noms. If I was wrong I guess there's no harm in you getting them back and substracting them Ratchet & Clank, if that's what you'd prefer.

While we're at it can I request that we change the "SMTV protagonist" part? We now know his name is Nahobino.
I thought that was the name of the form he took. The vibe I got was akin to calling Joker “Persona User” if that makes sense. If it does count as his name I am free to change it but from what I remember it wasn’t that clear cut.
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Hero
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
9,724
I thought that was the name of the form he took. The vibe I got was akin to calling Joker “Persona User” if that makes sense. If it does count as his name I am free to change it but from what I remember it wasn’t that clear cut.
From what I've seen Atlus is referring to the character by that name (for example in the description from the official website) and it's the name used for him in the Treehouse presentation so I think it'll at least end up being what everyone refers to him for the foreseeable future.
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Hero
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
9,724
Oops double post

Mii Costume: 2B x265
Meat Boy x260
Junpei (Zero Escape) x255
[Rerate] Louie x245
Corvo Attano x235
Senator Armstrong x235
Tetra x230

250 - 201

Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku x210
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x205

200 - 151

Stage: Bowser's Castle x187
Sackboy x185
[Rerate] Tails x185
Kaede Akamatsu x180
Boss: Rayquaza x170
Ratchet & Clank x170
Gunvolt x160
Octoling x158

150 - 101

Pyramid Head x150
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x128
Boss: Ender Dragon x12
8
Echo (Bowser) x128
D.Va x115
[Rerate] Gene x110
Fulgore x107

100 - 51

Stage: Tetris x100

Giygas x90
Legends Trainer x90

Concept: Crazy Taxi character x85
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75

Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x75
Echo (Olimar) x66
Magolor x65

[Rerate] Zhao Yun x65
Ghirahim x60
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai
x55

50 - 25

[Rerate] Agumon x50

Plague Knight x50
Springtrap x50
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40

Ori x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x30
Joe Random (MLB: The Show) x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20

Concept: Bonus Fighter x20
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x16
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15

Echo: Ms. Pac-Man x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10

Omori x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5

Concept: Tsukihime rep x5
[Rerate] Eggman x5
Firebrand x1

Mii Costume: 2B and Meat Boy hop past Junpei, landing in first and second place respectively. Senator Armstrong beats Tetra and is head-to-head with Corvo Attano in fourth place. But then Louie comes out of nowhere (as he usually does), passing Tetra, Armstrong and Corvo to take fourth place for himself.

Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku and Danganronpa protagonist dance past 200 noms.

Ratchet & Clank soar to over 150 noms.

Gene brawls his way through 100 noms.

Ori escapes the under 25 club.

Octoling super jumps past the 25, 50, 100, and 150 nom borders. That's the power of extra noms for ya!

A challenger approaches: It's Omori, with 10 noms!

Perkilator Perkilator and Neosonic97 Neosonic97 Crash and Reimu are on the fixed schedule, so anyone else you'd like to give your noms to?
 

TCT~Phantom

Smash Master
Joined
Dec 10, 2013
Messages
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NNID
TCT~Phantom
From what I've seen Atlus is referring to the character by that name (for example in the description from the official website) and it's the name used for him in the Treehouse presentation so I think it'll at least end up being what everyone refers to him for the foreseeable future.
Fair enough, I’ll amend it in a bit. Didn’t watch treehouse or check the website, I checked the wiki.
 

Pillow

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 20, 2013
Messages
1,264
Location
Los Angeles
Maybe I don't know enough about how corporate deals work, but if the issue is Nintendo getting involved with a Chinese megacorp, then any sort of IP cross-usage seems like involvement enough to say "Yeah, they're fine with this." No matter who's using what, they'd need to work out a deal and would probably have to share profits (At least, I'm pretty sure that's how it goes?), so Tencent using Nintendo IPs and Nintendo using Riot IPs don't seem like they have much of a divide.
Corporate deals work like any deals work, and are wildly varied and circumstantial to the point it's not really worth speculating on. I agree that the existence of things like the Pokemon MoBA shows that the two companies are willing to work with each other if the situation and opportunity arises, and it's not like I said there's no chance that they'd work out something to get League into Smash (I gave them a pretty fair chance overall I think). I just maintain that there is a lot of hurdles that comes with working with a Chinese corporation, especially one as big as Tencent is, and Nintendo could be understandably wary of it anytime they do come into contact with each other. As for why it matters who's using what IP, for example, if LoL is added to Smash and down the line, Nintendo wanted to bring everyone back for the next Smash installment they would have to consult with Tencent again, while it's unlikely that Tencent cares if a sequel to the Pokemon game is made or to its quality so long as it makes money (This could also potentially explain why Smash has stuck to a small selection of companies for the 3rd party characters in its roster). I'd also add that as far as IP is concerned, China in general is notoriously dgaf of the copyright laws of foreign countries.
 
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DrifloonEmpire

Smash Lord
Joined
Aug 2, 2019
Messages
1,287
League of Legends

Chance: 5% -
The big key in all of this is Nintendo's relationship with Tencent, and is the single biggest key for third party characters. The two have been working together on many things, the most well known being Pokemon Unite, and the Switch's distribution in China. Tencent, of course, owns Riot, who are very open about having a League character in Smash. Basically every avenue is open. However, if this is the case, why the 5%? Firstly, League of Legends isn't very popular in Japan. It isn't a literal who, there ARE people there who play the game, but it's extremely small compared to China and Korea. The game is PC-centric, and while the Switch is getting Ruined Kingdom, a League side-game, there isn't much overlap between League and Nintendo fans. There's also the fact that a League character would more than likely been an E3 pick, and while the theory of the "missing Banjo" is possible, at this point I'm no banking on it.

Want: 30% - Nothing against League, of course, but I don't really have an experience with it. It was extremely popular among students in my major in college but it never really grabbed me. Which is a shame because a lot of the characters look cool and could be very unique choices for Smash picks. Plus, with only a single slot left, there's just too many other franchises I'd rather see, including several Western franchises that League would have to compete with. So a cool choice but not one I'd personally have a connection with.


Nominations:
[Rerate] Louie x10

Predictions:
Adol - 10.34%
Rean - 17.27%
Estelle - 12.33%

Expecting a couple of people to give some massive chance scores to Adol and Rean, along with overall strong scores due to being the underwhelming last choice. Still, with only one slot left everyone's chances naturally fall as well, so we'll have to see.
 

Inue Houji

Purplish Wig
Premium
Joined
Oct 8, 2020
Messages
261
From what I gather you used them on the Conker/Riptor double day. You gave 15 noms, which was more than the day cap, so I assumed the intention was to use extra noms. If I was wrong I guess there's no harm in you getting them back and substracting them Ratchet & Clank, if that's what you'd prefer.
I thought double days gave noms for each character rated? Oh well, no worries. You don't need to change anything further.
 
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DanganZilla5

Smash Lord
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Messages
1,546
I keep lol-ing at all these LoL abbreviations

Chance: 5%

My brain is kind of scrambled after Kazuya threw us for a loop hardcore. But I'll take a crack at this. LoL definitely has the merits to be included. It's a very popular game and a staple of its genre. Tencent has been working with Nintendo nicely recently and there is even a LoL spinoff game coming to Switch. If Nintendo wants to get the Chinese market interested in Smash, this is the kind of pick that would certainly do that. My only issue is that I think LoL is a bit too big to be the ending slot. I feel like it's one of those games that would have been at E3 if it was in, especially considering that it's a western I.P. But I'll keep it in mind because I'm weary of another Kazuya-tier curveball and who knows, the last character could be big too. As for who would be the rep, I have no clue. There are loads of options but I'd imagine it wouldn't be that huge of a deal. If they needed to, Sakurai could just choose someone who is popular and who could have their moveset translated nicely into Smash, or they could just ask the director who they want (Just like with ARMS).

Want: Abstain

I've never played LoL and I have no intention to. It looks fun and the characters are memorable, but it's not my cup of tea and I'm mostly a single-player type guy anyway. I have looked up some of the characters like Ahri and what they can do so I can say that I would be fine with this, but I'd probably just be "meh" about it.

Prediction: 21% for all three of the Falcom gang

Noms: Pyramid Head x10
 
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Inferno7

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jun 10, 2021
Messages
341
Chances: very low, around 1-5%
Self explanatory. Doesn't really ring a bell when thinking about ''second chance'' which has been the overall thematic in this pass, absolutely no connections with Nintendo aside from the new RPG, not to mention it's owned by a bigger company (Tencent). Smash, from a purely profitable perspective would seem like a drop in the sea for them.

Want: idk, 20% when compared to other picks
League as a game is pretty decent and I was an active player for a long time (not so much anymore), but I must wholeheartedly say the playerbase is the most horrid s***show I've ever witnessed, so I don't think they deserve anything let alone a Smash character. Not to mention Riot themselves suck terribly hard at being responsible devs: absolutely abysmal balancing team, clear bias towards specific champs (more amount of skins & such), not giving two F's about toxic players and reports, etc.
It also depends on who they add first, if it's some pick like Garen or Yasuo I sleep, because another archetype that has already been done before when they have so many interesting concepts and fighters to choose from would be lame, period. Someone like Ahri, Zed or Katarina would make my day though.
 
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Inue Houji

Purplish Wig
Premium
Joined
Oct 8, 2020
Messages
261
LoL rep
Chance: Abstain
Don't want to make the effort for this game. I don't care enough about it.

Want: 0%
Even though I spent over 4 years and hundreds of dollars playing this game, it has changed too much for me to want anything to do with this game anymore.
I used to love it, now I don't want to see it.

Predictions
Adol: 10.3%
Rean: 4.9%
Estelle: 5.2%

Nominations
Ratchet & Clank x5
 
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Jomosensual

Smash Lord
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
1,870
League of Legends rep

Chance 10 - Feels like if this was happening it would have already. I think there's a better shot here than most people realize though. League of Legends is pretty popular in the west and in select areas of the east. It is also owned by Riot, who is owned by Tencent who I believe is working on getting Switch sales started in China at the moment. It would not surprise me at all if they had a bunch of their games come to the Switch because of this and have a character get added to their best selling game(Or at least i'm pretty sure it is) and should that happen it looks like the top bet would be League of Legends, which it now fully owns. Obviously this is a pretty hypothetical scenario but it really doesn't feel that crazy either. The biggest issue is that while LoL is major in a lot of eastern countries like China and Korea, it isn't as popular in Japan. We also have the issue of there only being 1 spot left and that likely going to a 1st party. So yeah, looking for LoL in the future but think we're probably done here with it in Ultimate

Want 70 - I don't play League of Legends much. My only connection to the game is through playing it for like 30 mins once. I'd be happy about it though because Warpenguin loves the game so I'd be happy for him. There's a few characters I like though, especially Teemo or Gnar

Predictions:
Adol - 10.85
Rean - 7.31
Estelle - 2.53

Noms:
Ori x all daily noms
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Hero
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
9,724
Lol

Chance: 9%
Quite a lot has changed for this franchise. It's now confirmed to be on Switch, plus we got a major Nintendo-Tencent collaboration with Pokemon Unite. So Nintendo cares about LoL and has an even stronger, more internationally oriented and development focused connection to the owner of Riot.

However this rating has the misfortune to be coming after E3. League is a Western franchise. And it never really caught on in Japan. So I wonder if it makes sense for it to not be shown at E3 when its audience is almost exclusively the West. Doesn't it make sense to reveal a fighter from a franchise that, as of now, has never been on a Nintendo system in the event where all gamers are watching? Especially when the alternative is to reveal them in a Nintendo Direct where your audience might not even know them?

In this regard though LoL's massive appeal in China - coupled with its Chinese ownership - makes it kind of a wildcard. We just don't know what a reveal oriented to that market looks like. Does China get to watch E3? Probably not right? So I guess that would justify holding League for its own presentation.

There's also the factor of being a Western franchise which after everything that's happened keeps looking more and more unlikely.

Want: 50%
Played some LoL in my teenage years. Not a big fan, might have played a part in my distaste for online games. But it's a landmark title in gaming history so yeah, it deserves to be in Smash. And it has a very good roster of characters that would shine in a fighter like Smash. The obvious rep is Ahri, and yeah she's okay, but my favorite is Jinx.

Noms: Octoling x10
Adol prediction: 35%
Estelle prediction: 33.7%
Rean prediction: 24%
I imagine these niche swordies will get a major boost from typical FP11 expectations but it will really be Adol vs. Estelle with Rean getting ignored. Adol will be a consensus pick with Estelle getting some way higher scores by a few people that skew her average higher that the median.
 

ProfPeanut

Smash Ace
Joined
Oct 1, 2008
Messages
693
Welcome to Summoner's Rift!

Chance: 15%
League of Legends is undeniably big, in a way that very few games are. Better is that it figured out how to market its universe outside of the game itself, expanding into other spin-offs and media that people might find more palatable than a MOBA.

Still, it's a MOBA foremost, and like most other genres centered on online PC multiplayer, MOBAs are extremely unpopular in Japan. By most metrics that'd simply be an unfortunately elusive market, and it's not like there's other, more populated countries for MOBAs like League to milk. But given the question of Smash, it's the one market that matters.

Would Nintendo really extend a hand to League of Legends? I honestly doubt it. MOBAs by design can be terribly unintuitive, and difficult to appreciate without years of bashing one's head into the metagame. League is also still a relatively young game, and Nintendo already picked one decade-old new kid of a franchise to invite, which goes to show the crazy standards you'd have to overcome as a Western franchise.

Want: 44%
Maybe if we had a dozen extra spaces or so, I could entertain putting in a League character, especially if it means cameos of dozens of other champions on the stage. Oh, and K/DA music in Smash too, that'd be very cool. But there's certainly better choices at this point, and it'd be difficult to swallow the inevitable salt if League of all franchises got the last spot. (Though certainly, there's a lot of games that that's going to apply to.)
 

Neosonic97

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Dec 18, 2018
Messages
301
Oh, Reimu's on the fixed schedule? Uh...

I got nothin' for noms, then.

I also looked back at the fixed schedule and...


Reimu Hakuri (Touhou)
Something about the way Reimu's surname is written doesn't look right.

Oh, right. TCT, It's Hakurei. You missed an 'e'. Therefore, I am therefore about to pettily needle you about it.
 
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SKX31

Smash Master
Joined
Feb 22, 2019
Messages
3,064
Location
Sweden
In this regard though LoL's massive appeal in China - coupled with its Chinese ownership - makes it kind of a wildcard. We just don't know what a reveal oriented to that market looks like. Does China get to watch E3? Probably not right? So I guess that would justify holding League for its own presentation.

There's also the factor of being a Western franchise which after everything that's happened keeps looking more and more unlikely.
That's... a difficult question to answer. While there is actually E3 coverage there as well - whether from people looking up official coverage on major sites (it's surprisingly easy to find coverage) or booting up their VPN of choice - I'm not sure how many actually watch. I don't think viewership is above the Western viewership (otherwise Zhuge - who analyses gaming there as his job - would notice that) and I can't imagine that the number is above the number of Japanese that watch E3 either. Console gaming is much more niché - even if growing currently. Still, information does get over there, quickly too. Hell, one of the sites had a dedicated E3 section where it was practically "here's all the reveals gathered in one place!".

One reason it's difficult is telling when Ultimate would release over there. And yes here's where the government and its onerous regulations really come into the picture. The government has intentionally limited the number of games that can be officially released there yearly, which is a detrimental factor. Also, the approval system is one of the most absurdly strict if not the most out there - I remember N3ON joking that they comb through every single bit of data looking for Winnie the Pooh, and that joke is pretty much on the mark. That plus a massive dose of Moral Guardian-ism of the "Think of the kids! They need to study and prepare to become a contributing member of society!" variety. Games like RFA get by quicker because the authorities view that more kindly than your average "obsession-inducing" video games (and it's not difficult to guess why). The authorities are also very mercurial and will drop lists of approved games in batches without prior notice. So while I'm confident Ultimate will see an official release... man it'll take time.

It's a primary reason I doubt that specific character reveals will be timed to this country in particular - there's very little time left, and I strongly doubt that Ultimate will get through the approval pipeline before FP2 ends (assuming it is - this is weird since Nintendo / Tencent teased the Smash renders on Chinese social media 18 months ago, but nothing has come off of that since AFAIK).

That said, I'd almost feel the reveal being its own presentation a la Steve would work best since China's not many timezones away from Japan. It's not impossible to coordinate a Steve-esque reveal, although the issues listed above do make it very difficult or even next to impossible to time unless a game goes full live service. Which I kinda doubt Smash will in the near future.

Now the official release isn't the be-all-end-all there - most consoles which wind up there are imported from elsewhere, and a lot of games are likewise imported because most people who are aware of the consoles will generally go for the versions that are not restricted by regulators. This goes for Ultimate as well - international copies circulate there through the grey market, and being able to access the international eShop is going to be a massive plus compared to the really limited selection with the official version (14 games officially released IIRC... yeah). The authorities know of the grey market but don't move to stop it on a large scale: since the grey market is big enough and it'd be a massive timewaster at best for them to try and track down every reseller.

It's why - in the end - I don't think LoL does need that official Ultimate release. It'd help, yeah - I've compared Tencent to Facebook in the past, and that's because both corps started out as social media corps and base most of their operations on social media. The official Switch release has been plastered on ads everywhere. It's a key reason why Nintendo partnered with them in the first place.

Regardless, possible targets for expansion like China is and is going to remain a factor for Nintendo going forward. I mean, they've tried there since 2003, they evidently don't think that the political hurdles are too big. And when they're currently leading with at least 4 million (1 million of which official) sold, it appears that they have a relatively small but noticeable foothold.
 

Ridrool64

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Messages
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Abstaining. Once again I run into an issue where the inability for me to decide who would take priority causes my brain to rupture attempting to calculate chances like this. However I do have something to add in that I do think they are unlikely, because with the accolades and star power LoL has, it feels like something that wouldn't skip E3.

Frisk and Arle are already on schedule so my nominations will go to a concept: Challenger Pack with more than 15 spirits. x 5. Abstaining on predictions.
 

DaUsername

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Metroid Dread, Super Monkey Ball Banana Mania, WarioWare Get It Together, Mario Party, and the Advance Wars remakes are all awesome and I am getting those games day 1.
The Smash newcomer, however, is very underwhelming, especially considering the fact that I did not even know who he was until after I saw his reveal trailer.
Anyway, on to the rating.

Your honor, League of Legends.
Chance: Abstain
Considering this entire pass has just been one giant middle finger to speculators, I don't see any point in giving chance scores anymore. Fighter 11 is probably just gonna be another random character that only 3 or so people actually guessed. It definitely won't be anyone in this fixed schedule, that's for sure. All these choices are too obvious.
Want: Death. (0%)
I don't like League of Legends. I'm sick of seeing it everywhere. So obviously I don't want this series anywhere near Smash.

Rean prediction: 15%
Adol prediction: 20%
Estelle prediction: 10%
Noms: Senator Armstrong x5
 

TCT~Phantom

Smash Master
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I’m gonna end the day now.
Today is a Falcom day. Rate Rean Schwarzer from Trails, Estelle Bright from Trails,and Adol Cristin from Ys.

Tomoreow is a Pokémon day. Rate Decidueye, Garchomp, and Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon.
 

DanganZilla5

Smash Lord
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Messages
1,546
The three musketeers of Falcom

Chance
Adol - 30%
Rean - 30%
Estelle - 18%

Before I discuss these characters individually I want to do an overview of the company. Falcom fans will be able to delve deeper into their history than I can, but I can still bring up the major points. Falcom is one of the longest-lasting gaming companies in the industry. They are notable for helping PC gaming find an audience in Japan and they have supported Nintendo since the Famicom days. Recently they have been porting their games over to the Switch and it seems like that they are really pushing to expand their audience as they are localizing more games. I'd argue that they are the Japanese company, aside from Koei Tecmo and Level 5, that makes the most sense right now to get their first rep in Smash. Especially since they are the ones that pretty much pioneered the JRPG. Let's break this down.

First up is Adol Christin from Ys. Ys is one of Falcom's oldest series going back all the way to 1987. Adol is the main character of all the mainline games in the series. As of 2017 the series has sold over 4.8 million units worldwide and it even got a couple anime series. Next, we have Rean from Trails of Cold Steel and Estelle from Trails in the Sky. Both of these titles are actually subseries within The Legend of Heroes franchise which to my knowledge is basically Falcom's crossover series. Both Rean and Estelle are the main characters in their own series and are a big part of the Legend of Heroes games. One thing to keep in mind for this rating is that for Trails in the Sky Estelle does share the main character role with Joshua who is her lover. More on that in a bit.

Now looking at all that who is the frontrunner in this group? Well Adol and Rean have the benefit of not only having new games, but they both also have games that are on/coming to the Switch. Estelle unfortunately doesn't share this treatment. The last game her in own series was in 2007 and aside from a worldwide PC port all the other versions were Japan only. To my knowledge there are no plans for a Switch port which, by itself, isn't a big deal. But when both of her big competitors have that luxury, that really sours her chances. Not to mention as stated, she shares the main character role in her games with Joshua. Now I'm not that familiar with these two but the fact that Estelle is a bo staff user and Joshua is a dual blades user indicates that they wouldn't be alts, which means that they are competing against each other. Now granted Estelle is still relevant since she appears in the Trails of Cold Steel games but again Rean is the main protagonist in them so it's hard for Estelle to stand out from her competition.

So if I had to bet on a Falcom rep, it would be either Adol or Rean. Now admittedly I'm not sure which one is more popular so in my eyes it's a toss-up between the two. I don't think there is anything that would really give the edge to either. But in the end, they are JRPG characters from niche, yet successful and long-running series. I have a feeling we'll see one of them be the last character.

Edit: So apparently Estelle does have priority over Joshua, at least when it comes to marketing. So she would most likely be the Trails in the Sky rep. That does raise her score a bit but I'd say Adol and Rean are still heavy competition.


Want
Adol - 60%
Estelle - 60%
Rean - 45%

I don't have much personal experience with any of these characters so I just have a couple words for each. Out of the three characters the one that I'm most interested in is Estelle. I don't think we have a bo staff user in Smash yet so she would be unique. But on the flip side Adol gets points for being the one here whose game I've actually played. As for Rean, I'm not too interested in him. From what I've researched he seems to be just another fire sword user which we just got with Pyra. So he isn't my top choice here.

But overall I would be fine with any of these options. Falcom definitely deserves a rep for what they have contributed to the industry. And I can say that I dig these characters' designs and their games seem cool. They are not characters that I actively support, but I would be chill with them.

Predictions
Decidueye - 17%
Garchomp - 25%
Gen 8 - 11%

Noms: Pyramid Head x30
 
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Cutie Gwen

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The mean Rean machine

Chance: 30% Rean's from the critically acclaimed Trails series, a franchise with possibly the best worldbuilding you'll ever find in a JRPG, it's a spinoff of a spinoff, but Trails specifically started around what, 15 years ago? The protagonists rotate across games, with Trails of Cold Steel specifically being the debut of Rean as the main character of the games. This bit is especially important as Cold Steel is easily the best selling series of the Trails franchise and that's not because it's got 4 games, being more than the other arcs. Cold Steel was a starting point for many, with Rean easily being the most popular character Falcom has as seen with a recent poll having him at the top. He's also fairly lucky as while Kuro no Kiseki's coming out in a few months, Hajimari no Kiseki, which features Rean, came out less than a year ago in Japan and while the West still hasn't gotten a confirmation this will even be localized, we did get Cold Steel 4 last year, so Rean does have recency in his side (UPDATE: Hajimari's localization got teased for New Games Expo or something so we'll probably see that announced next week) The only issue is that Falcom is fairly niche and Sakurai would need to prioritize recency over legacy and while he's done that before with a similar breakout character, he may want to go with legacy instead.

Want: Abstain, haven't gotten to Cold Steel yet so I can't judge him fairly

The virgin Scrimblo Bimblo vs the Chadol

Chance: 30% Adol is also from Falcom and while everyone here probably knows him by now, I'll explain a bit. Ys was easily Falcom's bread and butter back in the day, having ended up with about 5 games in a decade, not bad at all! After a hiatus after Ys V, the series ended up making a comeback with 6 and slowly ended up getting more sequels up to Ys IX which gets released worldwide next month, constantly finding ways to change the formula without getting stale. While Adol has next to no character, silent protagonist and all that jazz, he's still beloved, being at second place on that poll I mentioned for Rean. Adol's got legacy and recency on his side and sounds like a Terry-esque pick, so it's easy to imagine Sakurai wanting to choose him, only major issues are Falcom's already mentioned niche status and how Sakurai may be concerned about Adol being rather generic as to be honest, he kind of is, especially on the surface.

Want: 100% I played Ys for the first time about a year ago after hearing so many people sing it's praises after the Falcom rumour had gotten popular so I gave the series a shot and goddamn did I fall in love with the first game's remake, fantastic music, surprisingly rich lore and fun gameplay, I played the 2 remake the next day as I was instantly hooked, having now played through all the Steam games except 4 and 8 with a preorder of 9 secured months ago, Adol's a silent protag who's rather basic so there's not really much to do, but then I played Ys 7, the first game in the series with the Party system and realized Adol had a surprising amount of moves at his disposal never before seen in Smash such as his Pentagram skill, and even better, the ability to wield any weapon type in the game, meaning Adol could potentially have 3 different swords and movesets to use, I also cannot stress enough how ****ing great the music is, I still find myself humming the OSTs of multiple games regularly when working, even have First Step towards Wars as my ringtone.

The girl with many phrases and a very large stick

Chance: 10% I can probably get away with copy and pasting Rean's Chance segment tbh but I'll give Estelle a proper rundown. Estelle's the protoganist of Trails in the Sky First Chapter and Trails in the Sky Second Chapter, the best entry points for the series, especially as the Steam versions have a built in Turbo Mode. Estelle's a rightfully beloved character due to her cheerful and hilarious personality while having some superb lines thanks to the godlike localization. Estelle has a massive disadvantage however. Despite appearing in every arc, she's only a protagonist of 2 games, with the third Sky game having a different protag. She's also less popular than Rean and Adol as seen in that poll, but another thing that sucks for her is that Hajimari no Kiseki had Rean as a protag, Lloyd Bannings as a protag and... An original character, not Estelle. She'd be the legacy pick as Falcom still respects her in marketing as seen with the Legend of Heroes anniversary emblem having her up front and center, but her best bet is Sakurai favouring her for her bo staff which is different from Rean's sword and while Lloyd has tonfas, Lloyd's never happening as his games never officially released in English.

Want: 100% Estelle is Bestelle, she's such a fun character and while there's a bit of uhhh squicky stuff involving her, I can't help but get a smile on my face seeing this absolute goofball do anything, be it showing off, having a ****ing excellent quote you can pick from anywhere, the strong found family themes her series envokes, fishing, anything really. I also see her being loads of fun as knowing Sakurai, she'd have focus on her unique Crafts rather than Arts (Think FF7 Materia system or Golden Sun's Class system) and hey, the more bo staff moves the better. I also really want to see if Sakurai will give her Wheel of Time as her final smash and use it the way I personally envision it rather than how Cold Steel handled it. There's also how comfy her games are, especially the first one. People say FFX, XB2 and Symphonia all get better later yet despite the slow pacing and comfy vibes, I never really felt bored exploring Liberl be it for seeing more fun characters or finding treasure chests so I can read the godlike chest messages, far more important than what they contain.

Junpei max
 

fogbadge

Smash Legend
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gonna abstain on all three, not sure who any of them are. noms go to: spirits events continue after the pass
 

Sari

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Falcom songs for today:


----

Abstaining for today since I'm not too familiar with all of the Falcom characters and what they each have going for them.

-----

Chance predictions:
Decidueye: 12.00%
Garchomp: 4.00%
Gen 8 Pokemon: 15.00%

Nominations:
Mii Costume: 2B x5
 

BowserKing

Smash Ace
Joined
Feb 16, 2019
Messages
939
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winnipeg
Rean and Estelle

Chance: 10%. They might have a chance to appear in this game, but even then chance is quite low. But then again, as Kazuya showed us recently, surprises are possible

Want: 50%. They would be fun to play as. Overall, since I don’t know too much about them, they would make decent Smash Bros reps.

Adol

Chance: 10%. He also might have a chance to appear, but with one slot left, it is going to be a tight one. He could appear as a spirit and or Mii Costume.

Want: 50%. He would be a fun character to play as. But since I don’t know too much about his game, I’ll just say that he would make a decent Smash Bros rep.

Prediction: Garchomp (25%), Decidueye (20%) and Gen 8 Pokémon (35%)

Noms: 5 for Echo: Bowser
 

cashregister9

Smash Master
Joined
Apr 4, 2020
Messages
3,511
Rean Schwarzer

Chance 50%, The Trails series is one of my favorite games of all time and has some of the most in depth world and character building i've seen in a video game, The trails series seems to be Falcom's big money maker and has crossed over with mobile games like Langrisser and with Phantasy Star Online 2, It is clear that Falcom wants to market it as much as they can. Rean specifically is part of the newest games which more people have played, Rean's biggest hurdle is Obscurity.

Want 100% Rean is easily one of my most wanted, he would have unique swordplay and magic and would bring in oodles of Fantastic content with things like
Spirits and Especially Music

Adol

Chance 50%, Ys has had more time to grow over it's life, Adol being the consistent protagonist helps, Adol is iconic and I can easily see him joining hte ranks of Smash, he has the same issue as Rean though, Obscurity.

Want 99%, I only put Adol at a 99% because his moveset would be slightly more standard, but Adol would still bring fantastic content and Style to smash.

Estelle

Chance 50%. I could honestly just copy and Past what I said about Rean here, Estelle does have more going for her though, The Sky games were the first games in the Trails series and thus paved the way for the rest of the games, and she is basically the Icon of the Franchise appearing in anniversary marketing and the like

Want: 100% Estelle is easily my most wanted character, hell she is the reason I joined this site in the First Place, to Promote Estelle, Falcom and to create the Estelle support thread, Estelle not only would bring fantastic Music and an interesting stage, She would also have one of the most unique Playstyles in smash, Being able to use various elemental magics and a Bo-staff.

I feel like I could Type more but Gwen's writeup basically said everything.

Noms: Octoling x5
 
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Yiptap

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Feb 13, 2021
Messages
341
I need to stop abstaining, but I am too unfamiliar with the series. So yeah, I'll abstain. But I'll be back for the Pokémon day, don't worry.

Noms: Meat Boy x 5
 
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TCT~Phantom

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TCT~Phantom
Rean Schwarzer

Chance 50%, The Trails series is one of my favorite games of all time and has some of the most in depth world and character building i've seen in a video game, The trails series seems to be Falcom's big money maker and has crossed over with mobile games like Langrisser and with Phantasy Star Online 2, It is clear that Falcom wants to market it as much as they can. Rean specifically is part of the newest games which more people have played, Rean's biggest hurdle is Obscurity.

Want 100% Rean is easily one of my most wanted, he would have unique swordplay and magic and would bring in oodles of Fantastic content with things like
Spirits and Especially Music

Adol

Chance 50%, Ys has had more time to grow over it's life, Adol being the consistent protagonist helps, Adol is iconic and I can easily see him joining hte ranks of Smash, he has the same issue as Rean though, Obscurity.

Want 99%, I only put Adol at a 99% because his moveset would be slightly more standard, but Adol would still bring fantastic content and Style to smash.

Estelle

Chance 50%. I could honestly just copy and Past what I said about Rean here, Estelle does have more going for her though, The Sky games were the first games in the Trails series and thus paved the way for the rest of the games, and she is basically the Icon of the Franchise appearing in anniversary marketing and the like

Want: 100% Estelle is easily my most wanted character, hell she is the reason I joined this site in the First Place, to Promote Estelle, Falcom and to create the Estelle support thread, Estelle not only would bring fantastic Music and an interesting stage, She would also have one of the most unique Playstyles in smash, Being able to use various elemental magics and a Bo-staff.

I feel like I could Type more but Gwen's writeup basically said everything.

Noms: Saber x5
Saber actually is on the fixed schedule, so feel free to change your noms. Glad to see more Falcom love though.
 

DrifloonEmpire

Smash Lord
Joined
Aug 2, 2019
Messages
1,287
The virgin Scrimblo Bimblo vs the Chadol
.... I really hope you're just joking...

I've been dreading this day for quite awhile.... Let's get this over with.

Adol

Chance: 40% -
25% already from his genre alone, I feel like this would be the most likely Falcom rep. However, this is only if Sakurai gets to pick the character. Adol has some historical significance (even if his franchise is very niche) as a staging ground for Japanese ARPGs. Sakurai values history a lot when it comes to his character choices, so this is the Sakurai pick of the bunch. Furthermore, his games, despite a hiatus as Gwen mentioned, have continued to this day so a lack of relevance is not an issue for him. He's popular within his fandom despite his lack of Smash fan demand (basically similar to a Yuri vs. Lloyd debate) so I can't imagine him being a controversial choice for Falcom fans. Really his final obstacle seems to be the fact that Nintendo chooses to promote Trails instead of Ys, so they may opt for Rean or Estelle if they are choosing. Though being a niche Japanese character with a sword does wonders for the final slot, so he gets a good score.

Want: 5% - He's got history and Nintendo representation, so there's that. I also do appreciate how he represents the more actiony side of JRPGs rather than the traditional side. However, we have only got one slot left, his genre has already gotten LOADS of love in the DLC, and, quite frankly, nothing at all about this character or his games interests me whatsoever (aside from the fact that he talks in grunts and stuff?). I looked through some of his stuff but I really am not convinced that he'd be a good pick, especially when there are loads of other, bigger, and more interesting historical picks that bring way more to the table. If all of these guys get shafted, why should Adol get a free pass just because of his genre. And can you imagine the discourse if we left off on this guy? I don't want Smash to end off this way. I get it, I'm not afraid to admit tha I like my Scrimblo Bimblos, but both them and more realistic choices like Chosen Undead, Dragonborn, MasterChief, and Doom Slayer also bring a lot to the table (h*, even f**** Jonesy Fortnite) and both bring in aesthetics that would be unique and interesting. Adol? Who wants more euro-fantasy anime JRPG content? I certainly don't, I'd rather see something more unique. Plus a franchise shouldn't get into smash purely because "the music just slaps THAT hard!", and this is coming from someone who's most wanted character's franchise is very well-known for its' music. Plus, if I were to choose an Action RPG rep I'd easily go with The Elder Scrolls instead, a franchise with way more renown and influence, and by far one of my favorite franchises. No offense....


Rean

Chance: 60% -
25% from his genre as well. If Nintendo were choosing the Falcom rep themselves, this is who I feel they would go with. Nintendo, at least in its' Switch news startups, has been promoting the recent Trails games and his games, the Cold Steel subseries, are regarded as the some of the best in the franchise and Rean is by far the most popular character in the franchise because of it. His games have also been coming to the Switch so he has recency on his side. Really, the cards line up in a way where he's the Yuri Lowell of Falcom. All of his games have been localized and are readily available. He's basically the poster child for a final character choice.

Want: 0% - No, just no. Just NO. This guy literally ticks every box that could make for a boring Smash inclusion. This guy brings absolutely nothing to the table, I don't think anyone would be excited about yet another traditional blue-haired swordsman. His abilities aren't very interesting, there's more interesting choices within his own company and within his own series, and this would be by far the worst way to end smash, second to only a Fire Emblem shill rep. Plus the Smash fans who DO like Falcom want either Estelle or Adol, the former for her unique weapon and the latter for his historical significance. Rean, meanwhile, would be one of the least satisfying conclusions of all time. You saw how I ripped into Adol. When a character makes ADOL seem appealing to me by comparison, you knows something's wrong.


Estelle

Chance: 40% -
25% from genre, plus she was the main character in the Trails of the Sky games, where the franchise got its' start. Sakurai went for Kazuya likely due to his status as Tekken's first protagonist, and if he has to choose a Trails character he could go for Estelle for the same reason. Furthermore, she's pretty popular, would be more unique than other Trails reps (which Sakurai may find appealing), and, like Rean, her series has been promoted by Nintendo directly. Nintendo clearly has a good enough relationship with Falcom. Not much else to say, she has a lot of similar advantages to Rean, it really is a matter of whether or not they'll go for history or popularity, and who chooses the character.

Want: 15% - I'll be much softer with Estelle since she DOES bring something to the table: a unique mix of staff and elemental magic which could make for a cool moveset. We don't have any staff users in Smash yet and very few mages, so she would definitely be filling a void. However, with only one slot left there are other characters I'd much rather see, both from other franchises and from her archetype, especially Bandana Dee if we want a staff-like weapon. And if we want a mixed two-handed and magic user that can also do tons more things, one of my most wanted characters of all already covers that. She's not a bad character, I just have other priorities, and I'd rather see some more genre variety in the DLC, and end off on a character more people would be happy with. She's still better than a shill rep, though!



Nominations:
[Rerate] Louie x10

Predictions:
Decidueye - 27.43%
Garchomp - 16.92%
Gen 8 - 13.05%

Decidueye will more than likely get high ratings due to FP11's likely release being before Arceus while still long after Sun and Moon, a sweet spot of familiar yet promotable. Garchomp, despite not being a starter, gains from Brilliant Diamond/Shining Pearl releasing around the time of FP11's probable release, making for a neat tie-in. Expecting Gen 8's confidence to dwindle despite being down to the inevitably disappointing final character, but with The Pokemon Company shifting focus to Arceus and the Remakes, Gen 8 may end up getting out-prioritized.
 
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TCT~Phantom

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TCT~Phantom
.... I really hope you're just joking...

I've been dreading this day for quite awhile.... Let's get this over with.

Adol

Chance: 40% -
25% already from his genre alone, I feel like this would be the most likely Falcom rep. However, this is only if Sakurai gets to pick the character. Adol has some historical significance (even if his franchise is very niche) as a staging ground for Japanese ARPGs. Sakurai values history a lot when it comes to his character choices, so this is the Sakurai pick of the bunch. Furthermore, his games, despite a hiatus as Gwen mentioned, have continued to this day so a lack of relevance is not an issue for him. He's popular within his fandom despite his lack of Smash fan demand (basically similar to a Yuri vs. Lloyd debate) so I can't imagine him being a controversial choice for Falcom fans. Really his final obstacle seems to be the fact that Nintendo chooses to promote Trails instead of Ys, so they may opt for Rean or Estelle if they are choosing. Though being a niche Japanese character with a sword does wonders for the final slot, so he gets a good score.

Want: 5% - He's got history and Nintendo representation, so there's that. I also do appreciate how he represents the more actiony side of JRPGs rather than the traditional side. However, we have only got one slot left, his genre has already gotten LOADS of love in the DLC, and, quite frankly, nothing at all about this character or his games interests me whatsoever (aside from the fact that he talks in grunts and stuff?). I looked through some of his stuff but I really am not convinced that he'd be a good pick, especially when there are loads of other, bigger, and more interesting historical picks that bring way more to the table. If all of these guys get shafted, why should Adol get a free pass just because of his genre. And can you imagine the discourse if we left off on this guy? I don't want Smash to end off this way. I get it, I'm not afraid to admit tha I like my Scrimblo Bimblos, but both them and more realistic choices like Chosen Undead, Dragonborn, MasterChief, and Doom Slayer also bring a lot to the table (h*, even f**** Jonesy Fortnite) and both bring in aesthetics that would be unique and interesting. Adol? Who wants more euro-fantasy anime JRPG content? I certainly don't, I'd rather see something more unique. Plus a franchise shouldn't get into smash purely because "the music just slaps THAT hard!", and this is coming from someone who's most wanted character's franchise is very well-known for its' music. Plus, if I were to choose an Action RPG rep I'd easily go with The Elder Scrolls instead, a franchise with way more renown and influence, and by far one of my favorite franchises. No offense....


Rean

Chance: 50% -
25% from his genre as well. If Nintendo were choosing the Falcom rep themselves, this is who I feel they would go with. Nintendo, at least in its' Switch news startups, has been promoting the recent Trails games and his games, the Cold Steel subseries, are regarded as the some of the best in the franchise and Rean is by far the most popular character in the franchise because of it. His games have also been coming to the Switch so he has recency on his side. Really, the cards line up in a way where he's the Yuri Lowell of Falcom. The only real obstacle I can see for him is that most of his game's aren't localized, and that has stopped Sakurai in the past. Though with some of his stuff coming to the west he could easily change his mind. Plus he's basically the poster child for a final character choice.

Want: 0% - No, just no. Just NO. This guy literally ticks every box that could make for a boring Smash inclusion. This guy brings absolutely nothing to the table, I don't think anyone would be excited about yet another traditional blue-haired swordsman. His abilities aren't very interesting, there's more interesting choices within his own company and within his own series, and this would be by far the worst way to end smash, second to only a Fire Emblem shill rep. Plus the Smash fans who DO like Falcom want either Estelle or Adol, the former for her unique weapon and the latter for his historical significance. Rean, meanwhile, would be one of the least satisfying conclusions of all time. You saw how I ripped into Adol. When a character makes ADOL seem appealing to me by comparison, you knows something's wrong.


Estelle

Chance: 40% -
25% from genre, plus she was the main character in the Trails of the Sky games, where the franchise got its' start. Sakurai went for Kazuya likely due to his status as Tekken's first protagonist, and if he has to choose a Trails character he could go for Estelle for the same reason. Furthermore, she's pretty popular, would be more unique than other Trails reps (which Sakurai may find appealing), and, like Rean, her series has been promoted by Nintendo directly. Nintendo clearly has a good enough relationship with Falcom. Not much else to say, she has a lot of similar advantages to Rean, it really is a matter of whether or not they'll go for history or popularity, and who chooses the character.

Want: 15% - I'll be much softer with Estelle since she DOES bring something to the table: a unique mix of staff and elemental magic which could make for a cool moveset. We don't have any staff users in Smash yet and very few mages, so she would definitely be filling a void. However, with only one slot left there are other characters I'd much rather see, both from other franchises and from her archetype, especially Bandana Dee if we want a staff-like weapon. And if we want a mixed two-handed and magic user that can also do tons more things, one of my most wanted characters of all already covers that. She's not a bad character, I just have other priorities, and I'd rather see some more genre variety in the DLC, and end off on a character more people would be happy with. She's still better than a shill rep, though!



Nominations:
[Rerate] Louie x10

Predictions:
Decidueye - 27.43%
Garchomp - 16.92%
Gen 8 - 13.05%

Decidueye will more than likely get high ratings due to FP11's likely release being before Arceus while still long after Sun and Moon, a sweet spot of familiar yet promotable. Garchomp, despite not being a starter, gains from Brilliant Diamond/Shining Pearl releasing around the time of FP11's probable release, making for a neat tie-in. Expecting Gen 8's confidence to dwindle despite being town to the inevitably disappointing final character, but with The Pokemon Company shifting focus to Arceus and the Remakes, Gen 8 may end up getting out-prioritized.
Actually, the entire tetralogy of Cold Steel was localized, CS4 came out in April.
 
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