Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[TCT~Phantom]

Puyo Pop till you drop

20% Chance

I personally have always seen Arle as someone that, while she does have a solid chance, tends to have her supporters overstate her at least a little. I also want to emphasize that me giving anything above a 20% means that in my eyes, it has a decent shot of happening.

Puyo is one of Sega's bigger franchises that they can pull from. It has a history, as many others have said better than I have. The Puyo Puyo Tetris games also have put Puyo in the limelight a bit. Arle also has a solid following, which is something I have noticed. While far from an S tier pick in terms of popularity, she clearly has momentum.

One major thing that made me dock Puyo a little is the fact that, well, competition. In the past I considered her one of Sega's frontrunners outside of a shill choice for SMTV. Even if there are Sega characters I like such as Axel, I would probably end up saying Arle would be the most likely choice... But then Sephiroth happened. While there are debates on who Sephiroth helps for the future of Smash speculation, one of the biggest names to get a boost in the eyes of many, including myself, is Dr. Eggman. Eggman creates a pretty strong opponent for Arle to crack. He is incredibly iconic and from Sega's biggest franchise. I think this creates a bit of a hurdle for Arle that was not there in the past. While Kiryu might be deconfirmed, Sega has other characters who pose competition.

I could go more in depth, but I think the most apt way of saying this is that Arle could happen, could not. Far from a front runner, but a solid shot of happening.

100% Want

I never was on the Lip train as hard as others. While I would like the character, I was not one of the people that are Lip or bust. To be brutally honest, I have always had more of a connection to Puyo. Puyo Pop Fever on the Gamecube (and Dreamcast if you know what you are doing) has given me and my friends hours and hours of fun. I mained O Share Bones in that game and "I'm hip to you" became such a meme among my friends until everyone else either mained him or Onion Pixie. Puyo Puyo Tetris also gave me a ton of fun as an early Switch game. I still pop it in for fun and enjoy it a ton. Awesome game.

Another reason I would love to see Arle is I would love to see a puzzle character realized in Smash. I know Doctor Mario technically is a puzzle character, but I mean using puzzles or traps or whatever like in a Puzzle game. This seems like it would be my best shot of seeing that, and I am totally down with that. It is part of the reason I wanted Reimu: The best shot of seeing a genre that I want in Smash to be in.

Raybans

5% Chance

For Smash Ultimate, I have found Rayman in the past to be one of the most brutally overrated characters in terms of chance. Let me start out with the positives. He had a solid ballot presence. While not the frontrunner for people's ballots, he certainly was always present and made himself known, in no small part due to the ton of publicity the Artsy Omni smashified image got him. He also would be a great choice if this was Smash 4, where he just went through a revival of sorts and Legends was one of the big Wii U third party games. Really, what could go wrong?

Well, a few things. First, the Rayman franchise is kind of dead right now. Outside of a mobile game, the last we have seen of Rayman was Legends and Legends ports. It seems Ubisoft is not at this time focusing on Rayman and he is on hiatus again. This is honestly the worst time that he could go on hiatus in terms of his smash chances. His fan demand, while noticeable, was never at K Rool levels that were needed to help him overcome his issues of obscurity. While we have gotten more niche choices who you could argue are obscure, such as Terry or even Joker, I think the fact Rayman has been on hiatus since around 2014-2017 is not a great help for his chances.

It also appears that while Ubisoft has talked with Nintendo on smash, it has not panned out in terms of a character so far. Rayman was a trophy in 4 and a spirit in Ultimate. Now, spirits do not deconfirm. Trophies did not for Sm4sh given we got Lucas, and since we got Min Min I think saying Spirits deconfirm is a moot point. But for Rayman, things get a bit more...difficult. Namely, we got Ubisoft Mii costumes as well. Using what we know from the Cuphead Mii costume negotiations, it would make sense to say that if we were getting Rayman, these costumes likely would have ended up coming with him. So far, we know Ubisoft has directly negotiated with Nintendo and got nothing so far, which is a downside.

Finally, the Rayman series has bombed in Japan. While Nintendo has helped publish some of the more recent games, I think it is important to highlight that the Rayman series has not succeded in Japan as well as other western franchises. While being mainly popular in one region itself is not a death knell, when combined with everything else I am not optimistic about Rayman...

100% Want

Which is a shame since I am a big Rayman fan. I personally loved Origins and Legends. I loved the PS1 Rayman and enjoy it a ton. I even got the DSi port of it on my 3DS so I can play it on the go, and if I get a vita I will get it on there too. I enjoy the character a lot, which is why it stings that he is not likely in my eyes. Hopefully we get a Legends 2 this year.

Tales of the Crypt

35% Chance

Honestly, if you asked me early on in speculation, I would have said Lloyd was super likely. Yet, in spite of every argument I have in his favor, the fact that all the other Sm4sh DLC mii costumes have come back has me spooked. It to me means that we could easily see Lloyd's Mii Costume come back with little fanfare.

With that bit of doomposting, let me quickly list off some positives about Lloyd. First off, I stand by that if we did get a Tales character, it would likely be Lloyd. I know Velvet is the new face and that Yuri is the most traditionally popular with Tales fans, but Sakurai's comments and the choice of a Lloyd mii costume during the ballot to me seem like signs that if we did end up with a Tales of character, it would likely end up as Lloyd. I think Symphonia coming out at just the right time and being one of the big RPGS for the Gamecube helped Nintendo fans latch onto him in a way that at least in my opinion likely puts him above Yuri and Velvet.

Next, Namco has no content so far and Tales is a decent choice to pull from. It is a consistently popular, decently selling series. While there is Namco competition, such as Heihachi, Chosen Undead, or even weirder choices like The Prince of All Cosmos, Lloyd has one thing that helps him: fan demand. Lloyd is a more popular request than the other namco requests, which could potentially help him.

So, we have a character that is reasonably popular, from a long running series, and has fan demand. If I was not spooked by the Mii Costumes, I would say that yeah, Lloyd makes a ton of sense. I used to rate him above 70%. But with this my expectations have dulled a good bit.

100% Want

Symphonia rocks. I don't feel comfortable saying it is the best tales game outright, but it is a good one and a blast on the gamecube. Tons of love went into the animations and combat, it is honestly one of my favorite games on the system. I would love to have Lloyd in smash as a result. It also helps that I am a sucker for characters that dual wield. I love the concept, even if it is silly sometimes. Lloyd would let me have that, which helps him out. Overall, character from a game I like that has a great design and would offer a cool moveset. Sign me up.

Neku x 10
Haggar x 20

Predictions
Tracer: 16.66% (If I was going to predict want as well, i would expect it low due to the bandicoot elephant in the room)
Crash: 64.32% (I expect Crash to take the mantle of most likely character and arguably most wanted as well tomorrow)

 

[GoodGrief741]

I'd like to ask everyone: please, edit your posts when you forgot to do something, whether you're changing your scores, adding noms and predictions, or rating a character you forgot about. Otherwise it's incredibly hard to process them since I have to go back and forth between pages and keeping count of sentences throughout multiple posts.

Keep this in mind from now on, but don't go back and edit previous days! What's done is done, if you edit your old posts I won't be able to count them for calculations because they'll be flagged as having been edited after the fact.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Rex/Gen 8 Pokemon/Wooper pre-Lloyd/Arle/Rayman

[Rerate] Monokuma x310
Qbby x300
Concept: Characters that don't have games on Nintendo platforms x285
[Rerate] Neku x269
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x265
Marina Liteyears x265
Concept: Among Us character x250

250 - 201

Worms x235
Crazy Dave x220
Concept: A 4X strategy rep x220
Henry Stickmin x220
[Rerate] Velvet Crowe x215
Mii Costume: Madeline x210

200 - 151

[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x197
John Marston x170
Peppino (Pizza Tower) x167
Concept: Far Cry rep x164
Tetra x155

150 - 101

Concept: Team Fortress 2 rep x140
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Concept: A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass x130
Mike Haggar x125
Boss: Ender Dragon x118
D.Va x115
Concept: Curly as Quote's alt/Echo x115
Zagreus x115
Stage: Bowser's Castle x112
Mii Costume: 2B x110
Excitebiker x110
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x108
Boss: Rayquaza x105

100 - 51

Riptor x100
Agent 47 x100
Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x100
Concept: A BioShock protagonist x96
Fulgore x94
Giygas x90
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x90
Estelle Bright x90
Junpei (Zero Escape) x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Kaede Akamatsu x75
Echo (Bowser) x70
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x70
Senator Armstrong x65
Ghirahim x60
Echo (Olimar) x56
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55
[Rerate] Carmen Sandiego x55
[Rerate] Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x55

50 - 25

Stage: Tetris x50
Billy & Jimmy Lee x45
Ryza (Atelier) x45
Rallen (Spectrobes) x35
Trevor Philips x35
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Mii Costume: Zagreus x25
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
[Rerate] Agumon x20
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
[Rerate] Yuri Lowell x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x10
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Arthur x5
Firebrand x1

Monokuma and Qbby collect 300 noms each. Neku skates past Beat and into fourth place. Worms is ejected from the top seven, with Among Us character remaining suspiciously in seventh place.

Velvet Crowe and Mii Costume: Madeline fight past 200 noms.

Tetra plunders over 150 noms.

Excitebiker speeds past 100 noms.

Senator Armstrong, Carmen Sandiego and Any new Xenoblade character steal over 50 noms.

Rallen and Trevor Philips break out of the under 25 club.

DrifloonEmpire You also gave 30 noms (10 to 4X, Louie, and Edgeworth), but you fell short with your Wooper rating so you only got 25

Nom: Characters that don't have their games on Nintendo platform x 10
3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass x 5 (Abstaining on three characters means total 15 points, right? Correct me if I'm wrong)

Sorry for not correcting you before, but you are wrong. You just get 5 noms if you abstain from everything unless you give a paragraph of reasoning.

So, uh, all three of you can correct your noms now.

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

I skipped Rex and Pokemon day because i couldn't care that much about them.

Villager's Side B.

Chance: 60%

Yeah, this is one of the most likely Third Parties for this Pass. For one, Namco hasn't gotten another character in Smash yet. It doesn't make it likelier (because you would think they would have gotten another one by now) but seeing how other companies have gotten more content since Smash 4, namely Capcom and Sega, it's not impossible to think Namco and Nintendo might show interest in bringing more content, but which content? from which franchise?

Tekken could have easily been that franchise. It's one of the most well known and best selling fighting game IPs, and Heihachi was considered for Smash 4 but didn't make it in the end, so one would think this would be the obvious choice.........and yet, it's once again a Mii Costume like in the previous game. So what's left? Well, in my personal opinion, the most likely (and only likely) choice to actually be the Namco newcomer is Tales of Symphonia's main hero: Lloyd Irving.

Tales is one of the the biggest JRPG franchises in the world of gaming. It's probably the most popular Action RPG series next to Kingdom Hearts (there's also YS, but that franchise is far more nicher in comparison) beign composed of over 15 "mothership" titles (Phantasia, Destiny, Symphonia, Abyss, etc) 11 "escort" titles, 5 spin-off titles, 5 animated adaptations, etc etc etc. It's fair to say this franchise while not mega mainstream, it's popular and successful enough to be worthy of a spot in Smash Bros when compared to similar Third Party franchises. It also has a connection to Nintendo systems, since its first title: Tales of Phantasia, released on the Super Nintendo and later in the GBA worldwide. I could argue Tales managed to find it's footing in the West way before the likes of Dragon Quest did.

Now, that speaks well of the Tales franchise, but not exactly of Lloyd. Why him? Tales, Like Final Fantasy, is a franchise that features (usually) individual self-contained stories featuring its own rotating cast of Characters that changes each title, and Lloyd hasn't starred in a "mothership" title for years, so him and not the most recent one?

Well, first of, Tales of Symphonia (Lloyd's game) is the game that is attributed to the franchise managing to get an audience in the west, one of the reasons Nintendo fans have a certain overlap with Tales fans since the game was released on the Nintendo Gamecube worldwide (which made it stand out a lot more than it's PS2 counterpart which only released in Japan) and is without a dobut to this day, one of the most fondly remembered games in the series, especially in the west, and it helps it's the best selling game so far (over 3 million copies). It also helps he has appeared in a lot of other games outisde of his Mothership title, like Soul Calibur Legends, the spin off games like Tales of Fandom Vol. 2, Tales of Link, Tales of VS. etc, etc, etc. The impact this game left can be seen in Lloyd's popularity.

While he is not the most popular Tales character or even Hero (that honor goes to Yuri Lowell) but when it comes to Smash, Lloyd is THE most requested character from Tales to enter Smash. For comparison, Alucard from Castlevania is the most popular character, but nobody requested him for Smash...........well vocal requests for CV characters were actually uncommon, but when it happened, it was ALWAYS, ALWAYS the original Barbarian Vampire Hunter: Simon Belmont (Who by the way, has had far more appereances and crossovers than Alucard ever had) and guess who got in Smash.

I can easily see the same happening for Lloyd. The likes of Yuri may be more familiar to the Tales Fanbase, but a lot of people have shown far more interest in Lloyd joining Smash. Just look at how much fanwork ideas are there for Lloyd's potential debut, and his requests seem to have been notable enough for him to have gotten a Mii Costume back in Smash 4............which is suspiciously missing. Everybody talks about Geno but i reckon Lloyd's costume absence is just as mysterious and interesing, if not more.

Now you may say "BUT PHOENIX, HEIHACHI WAS A COSTUME IN SMASH 4 AND YET IT CAME BACK IN ULTIMATE DESPITE BEIGN ABSENT FOR OVER A YEAR SINCE THE GAME'S RELEASE". True, true, but that's in my opinion the main difference between Heihachi and Lloyd: One was extremely hard to make a moveset out of, in the words of Sakurai himself. Could he have done it? Sure, if he tried hard enough. After all he made a moveset for Ridley, Falcon, and a ****ing Plant.

But what makes Lloyd special is well..................it's literally very easy to translate his moveset into Smash. Have you played Smash? imagine it having less aerial moves, RPG elements like stats and focusing on stamina by default, and having a plethora of custom moves..............congrats! You just played TALES!

Okay that's a little exxagerated, but it's still true. The Tales series has 2 main attack buttons: The normal one which uses basic attacks (which easily could be used for Jabs, Titles, etc for Smash) and a "special" which uses abilities called Artes, which can be customized to the Player's content similar to the Mii's Costume moves. This makes Lloyd an extremely easy to implement into Smash, as much as Mega Man, Simon, and Banjo.

Compare that to Heihachi who could have a moveset, but Sakurai likely wanted that moveset to be faithful to Tekken's mechanics, this is an issue that's non-existent for Lloyd. Yeah he's a sword user, but at the very least he's a dual wielder, which makes him stand out enough. Not every character must bring a super gimmick to make themselves special, and Lloyd's faithful moveset honestly is specail enough on his own.

A Main character from a really popular game that is one of the most beloved entries in a long running best selling franchise (and it's among the best selling too!) that has a presence worldwide and on Nintendo platforms, is requested in Smash circles enough to have been thrown a bone, and his moveset is so easy to make it's almost like blueprints for a Smash moveset.

Yeah, this is THE Namco rep in my eyes. Finally somone who can catch up to Ryu Hayabusa in chance in my score.

Want: 25%

Yeah.........too bad i haven't played Symphonia yet. I played Vesperia and i can say this series could be right on my alley, but i don't have a way to play it. Rest assuered, should TOS ever enter my hands, my want score will likely be far higer.

Out of all the characters i rated, Lloyd was one of the few that have received a positive from me in chance. Despite Geno falling off the wayside, i still firmly believe that when it comes to Namco, it's Tales or no one.

Tales is still a greatly popular franchise, it's still one of Namco's top dogs, it's still stupidly easy to put in Smash, and Lloyd in particular is one of the dew i can see happen.

What about Yuri though? Well honestly while i see his merits (if he gets rerated i will go on dept about him) the fact that they chose Lloyd to be the representative in Smash 4 via Costume speaks to me that Sakurai does consider him one of the most recognizable and obvious choices, i mean it's not like Yuri was unpopular among the Tales fanbase when Smash DLC rolled around (remember Cloud didn't had FF7 on Nintendo systems, only cameos just like Yuri with Project X Zone 1 and 2) so i wouldn't be surprised if Sakurai decided on Lloyd again for the playable spot. Keep in mind, i consider Yuri more likely than any other Non-Lloyd Namco character as of now, so i see him as the dark horse, but my money is still on Lloyd.

Chance: 60%

as for want? Now its' a 50%

Despite my playing Vesperia and not Symphonia, i do kinda prefer if Lloyd got over Yuri. Mostly because i can relate to his passionate fanbase, seeing years and years on how they struggled to the end, and how Symphonia still resonates with so many people is kind of inspiring, and to see Yuri getting over would be a kick in the groin. As someone who dreaded every second the possibility of Alucard getting over Simon, i can relate to this.

Plus, knowing how Tales plays, i know Lloyd would be fun and faithful, and hopefully simple to pick up and play. No gimmicks this time please.

Next up:

(is this song safe to post in this website?)
Chance: 1%

On one hand, Spirits are now fully on the table thanks to Min-Min, and its been a while since the negotations of Rayman as a Spirit (probably even before Smash Ultimate was finished and released) so i could see Ubisoft wanting to reconsider. and yes, i fully see Rayman as THE most likely and only likely Ubisoft char in Smash. Rabbids appeared with Mario in a crossover, but Black Mage was in a Mario Sports game and Cloud still had the honor of beign chosen. Rayman may not be the best selling Ubisoft franchise nowadays, but Mega Man got in before RE, Banjo got in Before Steve, Bayo got in over Arle and Kiryu, etc.

So i don't see AC as competition in the slightlest. Everytime Ubisoft opens their mouth regarding a character in Smash, it's always Rayman and the fans do so to. Capcom always was pestered with Mega Man in Smash, and lo and behold he was the first Capcom rep in Smash, fans and Microsoft talked about Banjo in Smash, and he got in before Steve, despite Minecraft beign the best selling game in the world. People only started talking about an AC rep ever since the Mii Costume.......actually no nobody talks abut AC in Smash, outside of maybe a few people here in this website and almost nowhere else. For every character that is not part of the "Smash Bubble" (Joker, Terry, Rosalina,) there are characters that fit in right there with said bubble (Sonic, Mega Man,, K.Rool

Rayman is no indie at all, and a lot of people underestimate his popularity and recognizability, but then against people do that all the time with European characters from all mediums. The only thing truly holding Rayman back is his lack of popularity and presence in Japan, a hurdle that affects almost all western characters not named Crash and Steve. With that said, at least his games have been localized to those audience (japanese versions of Rayman 1 and 2 were released for the Saturn and Dreamcast respectively), so at least that franchise is accessible to them, something i can not say about Reimu in comparison (OFFICIALLY speaking, not counting fan translations)

So why so low then? The Mii Costumes that's why. It's basically the same reason i put Sol on a 1% chance regarding the Kunio spirit, If Ubisoft had Rayman coming to Smash, they would have saved those Mii Costumes for his Pack, and it makes me think this is all Rayman's gonna get. It's only made worse by the fact that those costumes were released alongside the last fighter from Pass 1, so they were likely negotiated very late into development.

Want: 45%

Im not a fan of Rayman, but i loved playing Rayman 2 even if i never beat it. I also would love to try out Origins and Legends but those are not accessible to me right now. He's the only Ubisoft rep i actually would like to see, and Rayman fits well with the Colorful Nintendo cast that i grew to love.

His chance rating is the same: 1%

While Rayman is clearly NOT Ubisoft's priority anymore and hasn't been for years, he could be argued as a Legacy Character. Mega Man doesn't sell as people think it does (Monster Hunter and RE are Capcom's current Bread and Butter, it's why Mega Man's hiatus didn't really damaged Capcom financially that much) he was one of Capcom earliest's success stories and keep him around for that reason, similary to Terry with Fatal Fury, even if he is now an artifact in KOF. All of these come from humble origins that once were megabucks for their companies (more than i can say for the likes of Kos-Mos, as harsh as that sounds) and Ubisfot clearly took pride on Rayman in his early years if his multiple ports of Rayman 1 and 2 are any indication (seriously, it can compete with SF2 and Doom when it comes to ports) but after 3 he kinda fizzled. However, it's clear that despite him being mostly neglected in his house, Ubsioft seemed to push as their choice for Smash. To me it's pretty likely that Ubisoft were to add a character they would probably be Rayman, and Nintendo published Rayman Origins and Legends in Japan if that counts for something.

Yet despite that..........he never made it in. I guess it's that both Ubisoft and Nintendo do Care about Rayman........just not enough to give him priority, just give the dog a bone and that's it. and it's been like that since the past 2 gaming generations for Ubisoft.

Now onto another subject, is that i gave Reimu and Sakura low scores, simply because the arguments i saw basically amounted to that one scene from "One Size Fits Ed" episode from Ed Edd N Eddy. I still stand by those scores, and by that logic, i simply can't give Rayman any higher score either.

If i don't see us have characters that are only popular or available only in Japan, then the opposite is not likely either. Rayman is a nobody in Japan, it's a cult classic nor a particulary revered franchise in there, hell i think the only reason Nintendo published Rayman Legends in Japan in the Wii U was BECAUSE IT WAS THE WII U, and they needed games for that system somehow or someway, and anything that helped them counted, and Ubisoft probably wouldn't have cared either way if id didn't release there (Rayman 3 was NEVER released in Japan for instance). I still stand that Crash is the only foreign character that stands a chance for Smash, and even if he no longer has that fabled Japanese popularity nowadays, the fact that he ever had it at once, is more than what Rayman could even hope for...........that and Activision is clearly pushed real hard for Crash, something Rayman simply lacks.

Also i still believe that Ubisoft just gave up on the idea of Rayman in Smash, and that is why we got Altair from the Altair Assasin's Creed series and Rabbid costumes without a character, because their character of choice coulnd't be nothing more than a Spirit, that could be promoted, but i don't see any reason for them to do so. I mean Christ his creator left not just Ubisoft but the gaming industry, (and if what i hear is true he probably will never touch Rayman again) and he was the only one really pushing for the limbless wonder.

See you in Rayman 4......................

Want: 35%

Despite my harsh words on chance becoming more pessimistic, don't think i hate Rayman. I may have not played most of his games, but i enjoyed what i played and would love to play more. It's sad to see this character and franchise get left in the dust by Ubisoft, and the only reason my rating is lower than before is because i don't tend to be passionate about stuff that seems really unlikely (unless it's something im reaaaaalllly passionate about)

Onto the last one:

ANIMU GIRL 1: ARLE from Robotnik's Bean Mean Machine.

Chance: 25%

If this was Fighter Pass 1, i couldn't tell you if would rate her higher or lower. We may have already gotten Joker from SEGA/Atlus, but i can see them going for another round for FP2, and i think Arle is the clear candidate here. While in the rest of the world Sonic the Hedgehog is undoubtedly THE Mascot for Sega, in Japan...........here's more of an artifact. Yakuza and Puyo Puyo are likely more popular there. and between the two i easily see her getting in.

Puyo Puyo is a looooong franchise with a strong history. It started out as a Spin Off of Madou Monogatari, a series of Dungeon Crawler games that ended up beign overshadowed by its cutesy Puzzle Spin Off in the long run. While originally suffering from the Doki Doki syndrome (changing the main cast for more recognizable characters like Kirby or Dr Robotnik) the series's brand has become important enough for its main cast to be front and center, no replacements.

As for Nintendo presence, ever since the GBA with Puyo Pop, the first Puyo game developed by Sonic Team after Compile sold the rights to them (which happened JUST around the time Sega went third party, ironically enough) and has had a presence in every Nintendo console ever since, with Puyo Puyo Tetris on the Switch beign one of the earliest and most notable titles on that platform. The fact that Puyo Puyo managed to cross over with one of the most popular games of all time and the second best selling game after Minecraft is no slouch on this franchise's part. I'll argue that this series is among most important Puzzle series around alongside the afromentioned Tetris and also Dr Mario. There's also the fact that Arle could represent both the Puyo Puyo AND Madou series, but the rights to the latter are apparently a ****ing mess so maybe not. Oh and the idea of a puzzle based moveset could give time for Sakurai to flex his Moveset idea muscles (Dr. Mario just shoots Pills, that barely reflects his game of origin)

So why i don't rate her higher when in Paper she sounds like a great candidate? Well, namely Min Min. I don't think a First Party Pass is likely, but i could see 1 or 2 more first parties joining in (namely Bandanna Dee and maybe even Dixie if im lucky) and that means 1. Less room and 2. More competition for her. She is VERY requested in Smash..............in Japan. While the Puyo Puyo series is finally getting a bigger audience in the rest of the world, the popularity of Arle or the idea of her as a character in Smash is barely speculated compared to other third parties and i do think Sakurai would like to add a character that is not so skewed towards Japanese tastes. Then again, this could be a Hero situation where the legacy of the franchise is enough to overshadow this, and i think Arle while not a obvious choice, is a very possible character that could sneak up on us Dark Horse Victory style.

Definetly worth keeping an eye on her, just watch out for those damn Garbage Puyo.

Want: 0%

Yeah sorry girl, Axel is my choice for another Sega character, although if im honest i would rather NOT have another Sega character in Smash should i be given the choice. Well, except for one, but that ship has loooooong sailed. Plus i SUCK at Puzzle Games so i have no attachment to this series or franchise at all.

So......how does she fare in chances now? Would you believe me that im convinced that i see her as probably one of the most likely characters now?

Chance: 50%

Yeah, no joke. Arle can pull the "MUH JAPAN" card like Sakura and Reimu, but unlike them, you don't need to pull random patches to play her games. Because she has managed to become a notable face of gaming in the last decade. She will never be popular internationally as she is in Japan, but she doesn't need to do that. The fact that she has managed to cross over with one of the most internationally well known games of all time already gave her so much clout, and the fact that it has all the benefits that i tend to rate Third Parties positively: Recent releases, Notable Nintendo presence, and even popularity and interest in Smash thanks to fan support. Arle already had strong support in Japanese sides as early as the Ballot days (as noted in a PushDustIn post via SG) and has only become stronger, and is now gaining support worldwide.

I really could go on, from being the most popular Puzzle series next to Tetris in the current generation, being arguably Sega of Japan's TRUE mascot, because they shove her in everything they can, to lasting decades upon decades despite bouncing from developer to developer, to actually getting an audience outside of Japan in a major profitable way. They even had her cross over with Sega's international mascot, Sonic the Hedgehog, multiple times, and they are still doing it with Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 (yes, it has a sequel) Honestly for me there's no other Sega rep that has better chance at the moment, not even Kiryu, simply because i just think there's more benefit about adding Puyo Puyo in Smash than Yakuza, i mean there's already an overlap with Sonic fans, why not make this overlap bigger via crossing them with the franchise that has Sonic's former Rival.

Im not sure why i rated her so low in the first place. What was i thinking?

Want: 5%

I have to make something clear. I don't hate Puyo Puyo and Arle, i simply.........don't care about them. You can thank that to my inability to play Puzzle Games, it's one of those genres i simply suck at, like Shoot Em Ups. Despite that, if there's any Third Party that i can safely say "i don't care about them, but i respect them", it's Arle. If she gets in i wouldn't be hyped, but she has earned it in my eyes at this point. I know "deserving" is a polarizing word in here, but it's the only way i can describe her, she's the Toad of Third Parties, a character that i don't care about, but someone that should be in if im brutally honest (the only reason i don't talk as much of her is because i haven't seen Arle get "cucked" 4 games in a row like poor old Toad, seriously Sakurai). The only thing i could be upset about is that she will likely come with Puyo Puyo remixes, while Sonic gets jack, which pisses me off but that is Sega and Nintendo's fault, not the fault of Arle's fans and franchise.

 

[MrMcNuts]

I'm gonna abstain from doing percentages since no hardly anyone here ends up right anyways but I'll list a few things about Ray

- The fact that some say the Ubisoft miis kill his chances will thinking Llyod will happen with banco miis already happening and almost all smash 4 miis returning is laughable

- Contrary to what some echo chambers on this site will say, his demand has only grown since smash 4 with him climbing higher on multiple polls as years go on. "BUT ITS NOT BANJO AND K ROOL LEVELS OF HIGH!"
Ok? Neither was the Belmont's and Sakuria said they were a high enough pick to notice. And like I said, Ray's keeps growing. Even if this is too late for ultimate, it bodes well for the future and he's definitely not a "Never Ever"

- Sure his Japan popularity is bad, but with the doors slowly opening for more and more western reps, eventually that won't matter, and we could very well see a character in the future with a big demand in the west while not being well known in Japan. (Also his games still release there so they'd easily have the chance to learn about him if he was one of the fighters.)

 

[Bobthealligator]

I'm gonna abstain from doing percentages since no hardly anyone here ends up right anyways but I'll list a few things about Ray

- The fact that some say the Ubisoft miis kill his chances will thinking Llyod will happen with banco miis already happening and almost all smash 4 miis returning is laughable

- Contrary to what some echo chambers on this site will say, his demand has only grown since smash 4 with him climbing higher on multiple polls as years go on. "BUT ITS NOT BANJO AND K ROOL LEVELS OF HIGH!"
Ok? Neither was the Belmont's and Sakuria said they were a high enough pick to notice. And like I said, Ray's keeps growing. Even if this is too late for ultimate, it bodes well for the future and he's definitely not a "Never Ever"

- Sure his Japan popularity is bad, but with the doors slowly opening for more and more western reps, eventually that won't matter, and we could very well see a character in the future with a big demand in the west while not being well known in Japan. (Also his games still release there so they'd easily have the chance to learn about him if he was one of the fighters.)

I do agree with most of your points. I don't really see him happening but I think he has a much better chance than Crash. All Crash has going for him is "they'd be stupid not to add him" which isn't really true, and most people consider him a lock.

 

[MrMcNuts]

I do agree with most of your points. I don't really see him happening but I think he has a much better chance than Crash. All Crash has going for him is "they'd be stupid not to add him" which isn't really true, and most people consider him a lock.

Yeah I don't mind if people don't think he's likely, it's just when untrue things are said like "no one really wants him" or "he's an absolute never" or "he has no moveset potential" that I'm like alright, I'm a lay down a few things lol

And oh god don't get me started on some of the crash fans. I love crash but the amount of people who think he's a lock or go "there is NO WAY they would put Rayman in over crash!" Is nuts

Damn dude didn't know you work for nintendo and that they have a "don't put rayman in over crash" memo! Learn something new every day!

 

[Jomosensual]

I do agree with most of your points. I don't really see him happening but I think he has a much better chance than Crash. All Crash has going for him is "they'd be stupid not to add him" which isn't really true, and most people consider him a lock.

Yeah I don't mind if people don't think he's likely, it's just when untrue things are said like "no one really wants him" or "he's an absolute never" or "he has no moveset potential" that I'm like alright, I'm a lay down a few things lol

And oh god don't get me started on some of the crash fans. I love crash but the amount of people who think he's a lock or go "there is NO WAY they would put Rayman in over crash!" Is nuts

Damn dude didn't know you work for nintendo and that they have a "don't put rayman in over crash" memo! Learn something new every day!

Gonna step in for the admin crew since none of them are around right now and ask that we stay on topic for the day. Discussing Rayman is fine, but we're starting to veer away from that a bit in the last few posts. Crash's day is up next so if you guys can hold thoughts on him until then that would be greatly appreciated

 

[NintenZ]

NintenZ NintenZ You gave 30 noms (20 to Kaede and 10 to Xenoblade iirc), but you only got 20

Oh my mistake, I'll allocate ten between each then if that works!

 

[Lionfranky]

NintenZ You gave 30 noms (20 to Kaede and 10 to Xenoblade iirc), but you only got 20
DrifloonEmpire You also gave 30 noms (10 to 4X, Louie, and Edgeworth), but you fell short with your Wooper rating so you only got 25

Sorry for not correcting you before, but you are wrong. You just get 5 noms if you abstain from everything unless you give a paragraph of reasoning.

So, uh, all three of you can correct your noms now.

Got it. I'm sure you explained this before, but I forgot. Sorry about that

 

[Commander_Alph]

Mr. Lloyd

Chances: 12%

I put him pretty low only because, so far, the costume from Smash for 3DS/Wii U is constantly returning slowly but surely, it's somehow not surprising considering even the most prolific requested character in Smash history got out right rejected (you know the one).

But, that's just my bias so now let's talk about that "leak" that mentioned that Bamco and Nintendo negotiating a Tales character and I'm leaning toward them discussing other Bamco character or even putting Yuri for that matter and bring back Lloyd mii.

Want: 1%

I'm not really into RPG all that much, even Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest and Tales is one of them, his design doesn't really appealing to me that couldn't get me interested in the series and is easily forgettable, at least FF and DQ character design has a charm to it than Tales akwardly vanilla fantasy look.



Mrs. Arle

Chances: 50%

I kinda want to go higher with her rating but somehow that is not really fair. I'm still iffy on whether or not her chances go up slightly or not at all, on one hand Puyo Tetris make her relevant in the eyes of the world and pretty much balances her popularity in Japan. On the other the interview with the Puyo creator came out as DLC wave 2 already decided (the ones where he expresses hi wish for Arle to be in Smash) so pretty much she misses the bus.. or is she?

Want: 80%

Arle is a very cool character and have a possibility to implement the gameplay of Puyo Puyo into her moveset and some of her magic directly taken from her original series, Madou Monogatari.



Rayman... PASS

Noms: Zhao Yun ×10

Prediction: Tracer 30% / Crash 20%

 

[NintenZ]

they shove her in everything they can

I have to correct this because it's simply (Very unfortunately) not true. Speaking as a pretty big Puyo fan the series is rather notorious for having it's characters be sidelined during the post-Compile era in things such as crossovers, merchandise, and etc, and when the series does get that stuff it's either;

-Predominantly based on the Compile era from before SEGA bought the rights like the plushes and dolls for example
-Heavily focused on the Puyo blobs
-Kept to a minimalistic presence a very good amount of the time

There are some exceptions to this, for example most of the cast have CharaGumin figures and Arle and Carbuncle are getting Nendoroids, but those unfortunately aren't very common. Which is genuinely a huge shame because I'd personally like the characters themselves to be used more (It boggles my mind why they aren't present in most SEGA crossovers outside of a couple Sonic games) but for whatever reason SEGA just finds the blobs more marketable.

The most ironic part to this is the mobile game Puyo Puyo Quest is a hotspot for a lot of crossovers, there's Hello Kitty, Sailor Moon, Lupin, a **** ton of PreCure characters, other SEGA IPs, and now even Gintama, yet it seems to be a one-way thing which is odd.

Anyways sorry if this became a semi-rant but I just wanted to make this clear, it's a genuinely frustrating issue that they don’t really focus on the characters much in materials outside of the games lol

 

[Lionfranky]

Well if sales and popularity in Japan don't matter much, you're left with the Western world where Assassin's Creed has sold over 100 million copies, is a guaranteed best-seller for every release, and gets Hollywood movies and Netflix TV shows. It still beats Rayman in every regard save for seniority and ballot popularity.

I already admitted that AC is a much bigger series. I was just arguing against Japan argument.

Your standards for good sales numbers are very flawed if Resident Evil is your standard. Mega Man is still Capcom's 4th biggest franchise, even after years of dormancy while its other IPs get major titles. That's nothing to sneeze at. In fact, at the time that Mega Man got in it was bigger than Monster Hunter.

Best-selling Capcom games

Capcom is a Japanese publisher that is most known for its several world famous best-selling game franchises. They own the highest-grossing fighting series Street Fighter, the best-selling horror series Resident Evil, the popular action series Devil May Cry, and the hit action RPG franchise...

vgsales.fandom.com

Mine is not flawed because I wasn't downplaying Mega Man. I was comparing Mega Man to Resident Evil. Resident Evil still dwarfs Mega Man. That's despite the fact that Mega Man has more entries than Resident Evil.
If we bring Japanese sales and votes, Phoenix Wright has little to no chance. Dante gets more votes there, let alone sales.

 

[NintenZ]

I acknowledge Rayman's Japanese popularity isn't the greatest (In fact some might say it's abysmal) but honestly... That's kinda why I think Nintendo might go for him, to boost recognition of the series in that region.

Cause Rayman Legends (Both versions) was a game they published in that region and they have a very close working relationship with Ubisoft, they might go for him to try marketing the series towards a Japanese audience as a sort of reverse-Hero type situation, it's a series they have a stake in which is why I could see them going for the guy. now I don't think that's the specific reason why they'd go for him but this is just food for thought is all. I just think this is important to take into account is all but hey who's really to say for sure?

 

[Commander_Alph]

I acknowledge Rayman's Japanese popularity isn't the greatest (In fact some might say it's abysmal) but honestly... That's kinda why I think Nintendo might go for him, to boost recognition of the series in that region.

This sentence could actually be used to every character that only popular in one certain parts of the world tbh (specifically Rayman) doesn't matter if it's just popular in Japan or not cause by the time you're in Smash you're literally in the middle of the spotlight.

Like stop with the "MUH JAPAN" argument, specifically those who is big in Japan, sounds like you're just downplaying them and act as if westerners really care that much.

 

[NintenZ]

This sentence could actually be used to every character that only popular in one certain parts of the world tbh (specifically Rayman) doesn't matter if it's just popular in Japan or not cause by the time you're in Smash you're literally in the middle of the spotlight.

This is definitely true and I agree with it albeit to an extent, but I'm moreso saying this because of Nintendo's connection to Rayman's franchise as it stands with them publishing his more recent outings, this doesn't apply to every character choice not popular in Japan of course it's mostly for ones Nintendo has shown an interest in previously.

 

[Commander_Alph]

This is definitely true and I agree with it albeit to an extent, but I'm moreso saying this because of Nintendo's connection to Rayman's franchise as it stands with them publishing his more recent outings, this doesn't apply to every character choice not popular in Japan of course it's mostly for ones Nintendo has shown an interest in previously.

Yeah I said specifically to the ones that Nintendo has been pushing and to those who earn a popularity and notoriety. Don't wanna repeat the argument about Hero and Terry being a "nobody" in the future.


It's even more ridiculous when someone play their "double standard card" and say that a series that earn their popularity for decade is the same as a one-off japanese only game that isn't even popular in the first place and say that character is more likely just because they're in Smash (you all know what I'm talking about), no hard feeling for the fans.

In conclusion, if the franchise is profitable in certain place then it will not hard for them to do the same to other places.

 

[MrMcNuts]

I already admitted that AC is a much bigger series. I was just arguing against Japan argument.

Best-selling Capcom games

Capcom is a Japanese publisher that is most known for its several world famous best-selling game franchises. They own the highest-grossing fighting series Street Fighter, the best-selling horror series Resident Evil, the popular action series Devil May Cry, and the hit action RPG franchise...

vgsales.fandom.com

Mine is not flawed because I wasn't downplaying Mega Man. I was comparing Mega Man to Resident Evil. Resident Evil still dwarfs Mega Man. That's despite the fact that Mega Man has more entries than Resident Evil.
If we bring Japanese sales and votes, Phoenix Wright has little to no chance. Dante gets more votes there, let alone sales.

And if sales numbers are being brought into play, the Rayman series has sold around 30 million:

https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/1177543066179317765?s=19

Definitely impressive for a series considered "not iconic" by some, even if it isn't close to the best selling ubi franchise. Still only 6 mil away from the blue bomber

 

[Dr. Yatagarasu]

(For Japan. SW sales for Legends didn't show up, but I'm gonna go out on a limb and assume sales are probably higher than the Wii U version because... Wii U.)

At the end of the day, the arguments for/against Rayman seem to rest on his largely nonexistent Japanese popularity. (Though yes, other factors do exist)
He's certainly an icon in places like Europe, where I believe Rayman Legends continues to be on the digital bestsellers list in various European countries on their respective switch stores - whether or not you think he's likely is probably going to be contingent on how much you think Japanese popularity will affect his viability, and by extension any character's viability.

EDIT: Note these are physical sales, because digital data is apparently stupid hard to get. Video game sales are still mostly physical in Japan, but there are obviously some games that will bend heavily towards digital - whether because of a limited release or because it just makes sense to get it digital.
I have literally zero idea where Rayman falls here within the context of Japan's market.

 

[Sari]

I think the "Nintendo could add Rayman in Smash to push him further in Japan" theory is interesting but tbh I'm not sold on it right now. Aside from the fact that "they could add them in Smash to make them bigger" can be applied to most other characters as well, I think Rayman is in a completely different boat than that of other supposed regional promotional picks like Hero and Terry. I won't act like every person in the West knew about Hero/Terry before they got into Smash, though they both have a major difference in that their series had a bigger presence in the West (and a brighter future as a whole) than Rayman currently does in Japan.

• Dragon Quest had seen moderate success in the West. The initial PS4 launch of DQ11 was a success in the West while the DQ Slime has always been super recognizable/iconic as far as RPGs go (something which I think can even be supported by Sakurai considering Slime as a character). Obviously DQ isn't on Japan levels of popularity in the West (and never will be) but the general interest in the series was still present even before Hero.
• SNK had been going through a major resurrection of their IPs starting around 2015. KoF XIII and XIV were moderate successes in the West (even having top spots at EVO for a while) while the NEO GEO brand and games like Metal Slug were also pretty popular.
  • And before anyone gets on my case by saying "LOL you're only saying all of this now that we have Terry in Smash," I actually did mention SNK's revival many times in the past way before the SNK leaks even happened. Plus even then I wasn't super hopeful in SNK happening anyway.
• As for Rayman, while his series has done pretty well in the West (specifically in Europe), he's been on hiatus since the SSB4 days which I think is a major blow for his chances. The closest thing he's gotten to a new game was the port of Legends, and while that can be seen as a plus I don't think it's on the same level as say DQ11 or KoF XIV in terms of hopes for their series going forward. Add that with how his series hasn't sold well at all in Japan and I just can't see why Nintendo would go out of their way to use an entire character slot to promote Rayman. Of course Rayman has his fans but I don't think he has the immense fan support someone like Banjo did to overcome that hurdle.

My wording might be confusing so just to be clear: I'm not saying Dragon Quest/SNK were more popular than Rayman in the West (I don't know which of the three would be more popular and I really don't feel like finding out after typing this giant post). I'm just saying that all three characters had at least a recognizable presence in all major parts of the Nintendo's revenue sources (Americas, Europe, and Japan), with the only exception being Rayman in Japan.

I know some people are probably rolling their eyes whenever I mention how the Rayman series has not done well in Japan, but I don't think it's something that can just be brushed off as a minor inconvenience to his chances. Like regardless if you want Rayman or not, performing really poorly in one of Nintendo's primary regions (one that is just about tied with Europe in terms of revenue no less) is something that should really be taken note. This goes for all characters as well and I've even mentioned this before for other Western-centric characters like Master Chief and Heavy (who is one of my most wanted). Quickly glancing at all of the Smash characters and their series, I think the only one that might have performed poorly in Japan is Little Mac. Even if that is true, that's 1 character out of +80 so it's easy to see why people would be doubtful of Rayman. Not to mention Little Mac was for the base game which I would think is less riskier than paid DLC where most people will be individually buying the characters themselves.

We've only gotten two true Western characters so far: one is quite possibly the biggest fan request for Smash ever. The other is from literally the biggest game in history. The Western gates appear to be opening for Smash, but right now they seem to be doing it very slowly and I'm not sure if Rayman would be the next in line.

-----

Now could Rayman still get into Smash one day? Well yeah of course. He has a lot of things going for him like being popular in Europe and Ubisoft's relation with Nintendo; not many other companies can brag about having an entire Mario spin-off that focuses on one of their IPs. I just think that brushing off the whole Japanese argument against Rayman's chances as "lol the RTC thread will look for anything to dismiss a character" is a naïve (and frankly, really immature) way to look at the whole picture especially given past precedent as well as the other arguments Rayman has going against him.

 

[warpenguin55]

abstain. I'm going to try to stop being lazy and participate more soon.

Noms: LoL rep x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ending the day now.

Today we got an Activision day. In the red corner, we got Crash, the PS1's mascot, the wonder from down under, and currently reigning champion in terms of chance in RTC. Will he hold that crown, or snag another for want? In the blue corner we got Tracer, one of the heroes of the hit hero shooter Overwatch. Will its massive success help her here? Rate these two.

Predict the scores for Sora and Professor Layton tomorrow.

Now for my own ratings, I wanted to jump the gun here and make sure my write up was good for Crash.

Woah!

85% Chance

Yeah, I know that for some people this might seem on the high side, but I genuinely think that Crash is arguably the most likely newcomer from Smash Ultimate right now, at least in my eyes.

First off, one of the biggest things Crash has going for him, arguably the biggest, is the fact that he was a big deal in the PS1 era. Crash was designed specifically to be one of the big games on the PS1. The game was coded to use 3D environments so well that people thought the game was a hoax at E3 1996. The code of the game was formatted on disc to make it so the load times were as minimal as possible. Crash was designed from the ground up to be a huge hit. The advertising helped Crash become huge too. I think we all know the classic ad of Crash in the mascot suit at Nintendo of America showing off Crash 1. The games on the PS1 sold extremely well too, selling 21.79 million units just on the PS1. This is not counting the PS rereleases either, as most of these sales figures date back to the early 2000s. This is purely his sales figures of physical discs on the PS1. Crash is generally noted to be one of the big iconic franchises for the PS1 in the west, alongside Tomb Raider and Final Fantasy. I will talk about this more later, but being one of the mascots for the PS1 is a big deal due to how big the system is.

Being the PS1 Mascot would not be enough to secure him. It is important to remember that Smash is a global game, and one of its biggest markets is its home market: Japan. A factor that helps Crash is that he is one of the few Western characters that truly took off in Japan. Now, it is no secret that plenty of Western franchises do not do as strongly in Japan as they do in the West. But Crash is an example of how a Western franchise can not only transition well to an overseas market, but succeed there too. Part of this was due to Naughty Dog and Sony Japan implementing a reverse Kirby of sorts. For those that do not know, for a time period Nintendo of America made Kirby angry in their covers in an attempt to market the games better to Westerners. Crash took the opposite approach. Crash in Japan is noticeably designed to be cuter on the boxart. Using the N Sane trilogy’s boxart to make an easy comparison, his eyes are smaller and dot eyed, his eyebrows are smaller, and his grin is less wide. While to my knowledge Crash 4 Its About Time has abandoned Cute Crash (which tbh makes sense, Crash 4 Crash is cute and the boxart already has him in a fun goofy pose), the design was used as recently as 2019. Crash succeeded in Japan in no small part due to a lot of effort to specifically change things for the Japanese market. The Crash dance originated from commercials for the first game in Japan before it was added to Crash 2. Crash 3 had added animated segments with Cute Crash in them in order to further appeal to the Japanese market. While not every attempt to appeal a western franchise to Japanese Gamers has worked (look at how they massacred Spyro), Crash was a huge success. Heck, in Sakurai’s Melee era polls, Crash was one of the third parties that did well. A Western third party advertising a competitor’s system did well on a Melee era poll that Sakurai officially published. Let that sink in.

The transition to the 6th generation had Crash go multiplatform. While fan reception of this era is mixed, it did lead to most of Crash’s games of this era being on Nintendo systems. Outside of Crash Twinsanity, all the major Crash games of this era were released on Nintendo Systems. That being said, this is where one downside for Crash would occur. After the reboot in Crash of the Titans failed, the Crash franchise went dormant for almost a decade.

Now here is where timing comes into play, because Crash is one of the characters that got the biggest boon from timing since his revival came just before Ultimate was coming out, and was in full swing by the time Ultimate’s DLC season 2 was being decided.

I want to for a second delve into sales, just to illustrate how well Crash N Sane and CTR did. Out of the 60 million sales that the crash franchise had recorded, 10 million of those were for the N Sane Trilogy. It is safe to say that the revival of Crash was a success. While there are no concrete sales numbers in this way for CTR, Activision has said it was a financial success and they were proud of it. Activision is still promoting CTR even though its grand prix post launch content is over, doing a free week almost 9 months after content for the game dried up. After this huge revival, Activision noted that Crash was one of their flagship brands, up there with Call of Duty and Overwatch. Sales for Crash 4, however, are harder to pindown. Due to certain world circumstances going on, it would make sense that physical sales are a bit down for Crash 4, especially if people have bought the digital version. At the very least it appears sales on Amazon did well. I think that after these revivals and Activison putting it as a flagship brand, it is safe to say that Crash is back.

Now, part of the issue I could see people have is that Crash might have competition from other Activision Blizzard characters. The main one of note is Tracer, and I will talk a bit more on her later, but Crash has a few edges over Tracer. First off, fan demand. Now, fan demand for smash is a bit of a mixed bag and never the best indicator, but Crash has become in Smash Ultimate one of the most talked about names and one of the most popular choices. A great example of this is his performance in the source gaming polls. From being at best a blip on the radar in Smash 4 to a top ten and even number one most requested character in the span of five years is something to note. Granted, this is one poll, but most big Smash Ultimate polls usually have Crash doing pretty well. Crash also is notably quite popular in Europe, with his games routinely topping the sales charts in the UK for instance. While for smash he is not one of the top requests in Japan, he still does quite well for a Western character in terms of Japanese demand. Another factor that I think helps Crash over Tracer is the fact that Japan has a lot of nostalgia for the PS1, as does the rest of the world. The PS1 outsold the N64 almost 4 to 1 in Japan. Worldwide, it outsold the N64 3 to 1. Being one of the front and center faces and arguably one of the core mascots of the PS1 globally is one thing Crash has going for him. When Smash clearly has a lot of respect for other big names from the PS1, such as FF7, Metal Gear Solid, or Symphony of the Night, you know that they see this as a market to exploit for nostalgia.

Leaks are something that I say to take with a grain of salt. I will talk about two of them. First is the one that I know some people are going to talk about that the Cartoon was cancelled. I am going to not try to split hairs and say that the leak is not real, I doubt that someone would go through this much effort to fake a cartoon being cancelled. What is interesting is the takeaways that people have had about this. Namely, people are going doom and gloom because the main takeaway is that Activision is hard to work with and they are protective of their brands. And I am shocked, shocked… that we did not have this discussion during the Blizzchung incident. Short hearthstone tangent, but the game is huge in China, so obviously Activision Blizzard would act in a way to protect their bottom line. But even then, Sakurai and Nintendo have worked with difficult companies before. Square is notoriously controlling, and the implementation of Hero was something Sakurai worried would be overruled due to how protective Square is with their works and especially the DQ protags. Konami has a whole host of issues that could be its own discussion, but Sakurai was able to bring them back to play ball in a big way. I am sure that at the very least, they would try their hardest to make Crash work. The other leak I will mention is the Five Year Plan leak for Crash, which alludes to Crash in Smash. Now, if this leak of the five year plan is true, it does not confirm Crash by any means. All it would mean is that Activision wants the wonder from down under in Smash. That being said, it means, well, they want him in Smash.

Overall, we have a character that is incredibly popular, iconic, and in the limelight right now in a big way. With the rumored PVP game coming soon, it seems Crash is going to be sticking around. It just seems like the right time to add the wonder from down under into Smash. IMO, he is the most likely newcomer if I had to guess.

100% Want

You know, if I wrote this much for a character I did not like, I would be shocked. I made sure to do my research and make sure I did not mess too much stuff up on this because I care for Crash a lot. The PS1 games are a delight. I love all the secrets in them and hunting for every last crate while still testing my platforming skills. Crash 1 in my opinion feels more like a 3D Donkey Kong Country than DK 64, as weird as that may sound. The exploration, challenge, and atmosphere are all there that made me love DKC. Crash Bandicoot 1 is a visual treat on the PS1. I am a sucker for this kind of polygonal graphics, and it is eye candy when it is not brutally beating me down. Crash 2 and 3 are easier. Crash 2 imo is in the running for best game on the PS1. Period. I would put it up there with the titans of the PS1. The revivals in terms of platforming also have been a delight. Crash 4 is my GOTY for 2020, and N Sane is still a blast, especially with the more even difficulty in Crash 1 and the added time trials.

Also I love CTR. CTR NF is imo one of if not the best kart racers…ever. It is so fast, so pretty, and so fun. I love how much customization I have at my fingertips as I blast past my competition. I love how it is a love letter to all parts of the franchise. They even have references to the Titans games, you know it is a love letter to the franchise then. If the free weekend did not convince you to do this, play CTR NF it is so good.

I have a huge soft spot for the PS1. It is arguably my favorite console of all time, or at the very least top 2. It has such a good library of classic games. Crash, Xenogears, Alundra, Valkyrie Profile, Monster Rancher, Rayman, Final Fantasy 7, Metal Gear Solid, Symphony of the Night, Megaman X4 and X5, Tomba!, Klonoa, Twisted Metal 2, Marvel vs Capcom, Resident Evil 2, Spyro just to a few of the great games on the system. It truly has an S tier library. The start up sound for the PS1 is magic to me. The futuristic sounds, combined with the hauntingly beautiful Sony logo sound, I love it.

Speaking of Spyro, yeah let’s address the elephant in the room. Spyro is my never ever want. I can’t see him getting in without Activision begging Nintendo to put him in specifically because his games bombed in Japan. Like, they really bombed. But I love Spyro with all my heart, and Crash is his older brother of sorts. The two franchises have been linked at the hip for a while. It was Crash N Sane that led to Spyro Reignited after all. And Crash would be essential to getting my single most wanted character in period.

In terms of realistic choices, Crash is my most wanted. Yeah I give out a lot of 100%s, but that is because if I get them in, I would be satisfied. But Crash is one of those few that I would be ecstatic for. Really that elite 100%+ crowd that only a few characters reach for me is in the single digits. It basically is Crash, Spyro, Heavy, and Neku out of characters that have a non zero chance of being in Smash. I just really want him.

The cavalry's here!

30% Chance

I will say this, as much as I said Crash is more likely, Tracer has a solid shot and is one of the more likely western characters. Overwatch is a big game, no one is denying that. Nintendo made Overwatch coming to the switch a direct fronting game for a reason. If you did choose and overwatch character, even if there are dozens to choose from Tracer is the choice. She aesthetically is one of the ones that would translate the easiest to smash and is the poster girl of overwatch. Really, she gets this high because as much as I would rather Spyro be the 2nd activision rep, she likely would be it in a FP3, which is reasonably likely in my eyes. Honestly, that competition with Crash, imo the most likely character, is what holds her down. It is why I would rate Kasumi or a Warriors rep lower since I see Hayabusa as super likely.

0% Want

Really, I think this would be cool, but there are two big factors that made Tracer tank in terms of want. I will give you three guesses for the first one. The first two don’t count.

The Second is just, well, I have been disappointed in Overwatch. To me, I was hoping it would be this successor to TF2 in a sense. A team shooter I could play with my friends that would be hilarious in terms of its antics. But it seems that so many decisions went into it that just irk me. First off, I hate Ultimates. I hate how the game when you are playing to win becomes who does not feed as much and who can press Q better with their team. I know that is a gross oversimplification, but I like in TF2 how I can mess around and do my own thing. I can do pacifist run Heavy on Well trying to get the intel as Hoovy. I can Sticky Jump into enemy lines and just troll one engie or sniper. Compared to overwatch, those shenanigans are harder. It seems that so many decisions in the game were made just to cater to a competitive scene that Blizzard has no clue how to balance. Multi queuing with heroes was taken out early, ruining my fun as the 4 Reinhardts of the apocalypse. The nerfs and balance team is a mess in my eyes. The real straw for me was enforcing 2 -2 -2 roles because blizzard can’t balance around GOATS and the role que for finding a game. I do not want to wait longer just because I am bored of playing as Ana. When I do play Overwatch, I tend to just mess around in the Arcade or do whatever events are out. I hate comp and quick play has become diet comp. It also does not help that I hate the overwatch community. Overwatch was influenced by two games in my eyes: TF2 and League. It got League’s toxic community. I can’t go into even a quick play game without rolling my eyes at a toxic teammate it feels, and arcade is not that much better sometimes.

Despite this, I actually like Overwatch. It was either my GOTY or runner up for 2016. It just is not what I wanted it to be and I often feel a little frustrated by it. Realistically if it was not for competition for an activison rep, Tracer would likely get a decent want score from me of around a 60% because I like playing as her in overwatch, she has a great design, and I think she would translate super well to smash. But my gripes with overwatch and competition hurt her quite a bit.

Nominating Haggar x 15 and Neku x 5. Once Neku gets locked in and Haggar is too I will likely find something else fun to nominate. Wonder who?...

Predictions:

Sora 13.13%, I think that he will have a few optimists but I am not confident in him myself

Layton 20.20%, That Level 5 stuff is going to hang over him, but I think he is a bit underrated tbh

 

[Sari]

Some songs for today's characters:

Crash

Spoiler: Crash Music

Tracer

Spoiler: Overwatch Music

 

[DaUsername]

Skipping Arle and Lloyd

Manray
Chance: 15%
I feel like if we were to get any Ubi character, it would be him. He's definitely the most popular Ubi character among the Smash fanbase, and would probably be the one Ubisoft themselves would push for. The main reason his chance is so low is because I honestly don't see a Ubisoft newcomer happening. I'm sure Ubi wants to have a fighter in Smash, but Nintendo keeps saying no.
But who knows, I could be wrong.
Want: 80%
I've loved the Rayman series since I was a kid. I think he'd be a great inclusion to Smash.
There is another 90s platforming guy I want just a little bit more, though, but I'll talk about that in my next post.

CB prediction: 65%
OW prediction: 20%
Noms: Senator Armstrong x5

 

[BowserKing]

Crash Bandicoot

Chance: 50%. There is a lot of things going for Crash. First the trilogy games being released for the switch, which boosted his chance a bit. There is also It’s about time, which got released recently, which also increases his chance as well. At this rate, Crash is either in or not.

Want: 95%. Crash would totally be fun to play as, and if he were to join in, it will be hype worthy. I can see him, Mario, Sonic, Pikachu, Steve, Megaman, Pac-Man and Kirby be in a free for all. Overall, Crash has a lot of potential and he would make a brilliant Smash Bros rep.

Tracer

Chance: 25%. Due to overwatch being on the switch, her chance is quite decent. Not only that, but the creator wants her in Smash, so this would help as well. Of course there are a few other Blizzard/Activision reps that may or may not get in first, but we have been surprised before

Want: 50%. She would be fun to play as, and I can see her compete against Joker, Samus and Snake in a free for all. Overall, She would make a decent Smash Bros rep, perhaps more

Prediction: Sora (5%) and Layton (15%)

Noms: 5 for Echo: Bowser

 

[Sari]

I'm going to quote my last two ratings of Crash/Tracer (and make a few minor edits) since not much has changed. Plus I'm still exhausted from all the stuff I wrote about Rayman.

Crash

Chance: 60%
One of the few characters that I am comfortable giving a +50% chance score. Crash is iconic, popular in Japan, and had two successful reboot games which released just in time to be considered for the second Fighters Pass. Also we've seen Nintendo collaborate with Activision in the past in the form of the DK and Bowser figures in Skylanders (a series which basically inspired the idea of amiibo). While that alone is far from a buddy-buddy relationship between the two, it shows that the interest to collaborate is there. Activision may want to capitalize on their connection to Nintendo especially with them trying to make Crash very marketable recently. They've been pushing Crash a lot everywhere as seen with all of the new games and other projects in just the past few years alone (which sort of falls in line with that supposed 5 year plan rumor). I can see an addition to Smash as Activision's way to push Crash even further.

Want: 100%
Easily one of my most wanted characters in general. Crash's games are amazing and he would be so much fun to play as. I don't like to use the term deserves when it comes to characters being in Smash, but I think it's safe to say that Crash is definitely worthy of that word: he deserves to be in Smash.

Tracer

Chance: 5%
Since I sometimes still see people use the Hong Kong controversy as points against Tracer's inclusion, I'll address that in the spoiler tag below:

Spoiler: Why Nintendo probably doesn't care about the Hong Kong controversy

First off, I seriously doubt Nintendo cares about the Hong Kong incident to the point where they'd avoid collaborating with Blizzard. We have Simon/Richter in Smash even after all of the horrible things Konami did and Nintendo is even collaborating with Chinese company Tencent to bring Switches over to China. Oh and I sometimes get Overwatch ads on the Switch startup screen. So the idea that Nintendo would want nothing to do with Blizzard because they're this innocent company that makes games for kids is ridiculous.

On top of all of this, I still believe that all of the FP2 characters were decided on before the September 2019 Direct (the one that announced more DLC) which was a month before the Hong Kong controversy anyway. Backing out of a company deal isn't like swapping out a food item at the grocery store checkout: it's something that requires a ton of consideration and withdrawing from an already done deal could have severe financial consequences.

Now as for Tracer herself: Overwatch is still pretty popular, is getting a new game soon, and is now on Switch. And honestly... those are really the only major things she has going for her.

Blizzard is still a Western company which has a fair amount of hurdles on its own. Since Blizzard is a part of Activision I just can't see Nintendo choosing Tracer over Crash when the latter has much louder fan demand and a longer lasting history. It also doesn't help that the developer of Overwatch recently responded to a Reddit comment by saying that he wants Tracer in Smash. Responding to a question in an in-person interview that is forced on you is one thing, but going out of your way to answer an optional text comment really gives me the feeling that she's not in. Of course there's a chance that the dev could've just been playing dumb, but I'm getting Matt Bozon vibes from how much they keep asking for Overwatch in Smash.

Want: 0%
I never cared about Overwatch and Tracer being an Activision/Blizzard character would most likely kill the chances of Crash who is one of my most wanted. Even if we had to get an Overwatch character, I would much prefer D. Va. She at least has a cool mech mechanics and overall I like her better. Also if we're talking about Hero/Class based shooters in Smash then no way I'd want Overwatch to get in over TF2.

-----

Sora chance prediction: 35.82%
Layton chance prediction: 20.00%

Nominations:
Curly as Quote's alt/echo x10
Trevor Philips x10

 

[DanganZilla5]

Cash Banoca

Chance: 65%

Between his recent revival, a surge in popularity, and a brand new game that cements his return, Crash just has so much going for him. He is an icon, has a legacy, plenty of Nintendo history, and pretty much everything else to make for a great candidate including some popularity in Japan. I really do think that we will get at least one more western character and I think it will come down to Crash or Dragonborn. There is a reason why Crash is one of my predictions, he just makes a lot of sense and Activision has been supporting the Switch.

Now, there are two points that I want to bring up. The first is that some people have been freaking over the fact that a Crash cartoon has recently been scrapped due to creative differences. There are people claiming that this means that Activision is very stingy with how their IPs are handled and thus this hurts Crash's chances. I HIGHLY disagree with this for multiple reasons. First, Activision has shown that they have a good relationship with Nintendo, such as having a few Nintendo characters in Skylanders. Second, we don't know the specifics about who was in charge of the cancellation of the cartoon. It could be some people at Activision who might not even be involved in Smash negotiations. Third, Sakurai is the type of person that seems to be really good at getting what he wants. He is a highly respected figure in the industry and Nintendo has negotiated with a variety of different companies including Konami who have a bad rep. Plus I also can bring up that Activision leak that showed Crash in Smash as one of their goals. And Activision leaks tend to be real in most cases. So I have no doubt that Activision themselves would not be a big hurdle.

Second, some people point out that Crash 4 isn't on the Switch, even to this day. While I do think this is a fair point, the thing is that I don't think this hurts Crash too much. The N. Sane trilogy and Crash Team Racing are on the Switch. We've had DLC characters who made it in despite their most recent games not being on the Switch. Plus there is some evidence that says that Crash 4 is coming to the Switch eventually (Mostly the Crash 4 website mentioning the Switch in its coding and the fact that the N. Sane trilogy came to Xbox One and Switch after a year).

Overall, I'm very confident in Crash. He isn't a lock, no character is. But he has a lot of things going for him and I really do think he will be in this pass.

Want: 100+++%

My most wanted character. Period. I often switch between him and Phoenix Wright as my most wanted. But right now it's Crash. I have been playing Crash 4 and I got back into CTR Nitro Fueled and I have been having a blast with them both.

Let me share some history between me and Crash. Crash is perhaps my earliest gaming memory. I vaguely remember watching my sister play some of the PS1 and PS2 games. I am not sure if I played them as I was only like 4 at the time but I do know I watched her. I remember bits and pieces of Crash Warped and I think Crash Twinsanity. And keep this in mind, this was before I played what I now consider to be the first game I ever played, Lego Star Wars, when I was 5 I think. Moving on, the first Crash game I know for a fact that I've played is actually Crash The Huge Adventure on GBA. I wasn't super interested in it, but I did play a lot of it. In fact I still have the cartridge to this and it still has my save file on it. The next game I played was Crash of the Titans. Even though I have given this game flack many times, I did enjoy playing it as a kid. I was kind of turned off by the character designs but the gameplay was fun and fresh. This was when I was about 7. It was also around this time that I played Crash Twinsanity. I never got far into that game since I sucked at games when I was younger, but I thought it was so cool exploring N. Sanity Island and I dig the music.

Flash forward to when I was 11, I discovered a youtuber who played Crash 3, Crash Bash, and Crash Team Racing. I was entertained by his let's plays and he has what really got me into Crash. Since a physical version of CTR was cheaper to get than Crash 3 or Bash at that time, I decided to get that game as I thought the gameplay looked really fun. I instantly loved it and since then it has become of my top favorites games. Sometime later, I bought Crash Nitro Kart. While I did not enjoy it as much as CTR, I thought it was a solid game. CNK has a lot of great tracks and it was a step up in terms of cutscenes and music. I poured a lot of hours into it too. A few years later, I got Crash Tag Team Racing. While it's not a good game, I had a blast with it. It was fun taking advantage of the overpowered merging mechanic and the theme parks were charming and interesting to explore. While I barely play this game these days as I now realized how bad the controls are, I do have a lot of fond memories with it.

Later on I got a PS3 but I did not know about the Crash ports on the PS store until 2016 (Aged 16). I did download the original Crash since at this point I had not played any of the original 3 games since PS1 copies were expensive. I started playing it but I did not end up beating it since it was around this time that the N. Sane trilogy was announced. And oh boy, the hype for that was great. I was finally going to be able to experience these games that I was admiring from afar and I was about to experience them for the first time. And yeah it was an experience. I saved up money from my first part time job, I asked my dad to drive me to Gamestop, we drove home while I was seething with excitement, and then I played it all day. I beat all 3 games in a matter of days. And it was a blast. I absolutely adore these games for their humor, charm, level design, wacky characters and music.

Oh yeah, and you can imagine my hype during the Game Awards 2019 when Crash came up on stage in time when they announced CTR Nitro Fueled. One of my favorite games was getting a remake with lots of new content and online play. It goes without saying that I love Nitro Fueled too. It expands on the original while keeping true to the spirit of it and the fan service is ******* fantastic. It has all of the characters that I grew up with and they even added Nitro Kart tracks which is such a lovely treat. As for Crash 4, I honestly have not gotten far into it yet but from what I've played, it captures the spirit of the original trilogy, it feels like a natural step up in terms of mechanics and level design, and it feels so inspired and creative.

So yeah, Crash means a lot to me. He is nostalgic fuel and is one of my favorite characters in gaming. He is the definition of a buffoon done right. A lovable dumb*** that you can't help but love and smile at. He is the one character whose inclusion might actually make me cry of joy. Like I cannot express in words how happy I would be if Crash got represented in Smash Ultimate. I pray that he gets his day sometime soon.

____________________________

Tracer

Chance: 15%

I do think Tracer has a shot. Overwatch is on the Switch and Overwatch 2 is coming to the Switch as well, though recent articles have reported that development is going slow. This article states that to this day Overwatch is still popular with 10 million monthly active users, which ain't bad for a game that is 4+ years old. Overwatch has become a giant in the esports and online shooter realm and is still getting support from Blizzard. It's also worth noting that Overwatch recently got a free trial for Switch online members which means that Nintendo still has the game in mind.

But I'm not too confident in her chances for reasons. First Overwatch, like most shooters, are not popular in Japan. Judging from my research, there was a decent competitive scene in Japan but then it kind of dissolved and now only a small group of dedicated players are playing it over there. Also it might not mean much but in August 2020 the Overwatch devs did a AMA and someone asked them which characters they would like to see in Smash, in which they responded to. Depending on who you are, this might hurt Overwatch as the devs would want to stay silent if Tracer was coming, especially since answering this question was optional. But to be fair you could also say that this means nothing and the developers pretty much "It would be cool" which might not break NDA.

Putting aside that, there are other factors that hurt Tracer, mostly competition. If we do get Overwatch, it might end up being another ARMS situation where someone other than the mascot ends up getting in. And of course if we are talking about Activision here, you have to bring up Crash who is a lot more requested and has seniority over Overwatch. Overall, Tracer has some things going for her and Overwatch definitely has the merits to be included, but she will have to shoot her way through numerous obstacles to be included.

Want: 0%

I tried out Overwatch during the free trial and I was not a fan of it. I can't quite explain why, but the game did not feel satisfying to play and plus it's too fast paced for me to understand what is going on half the time. As for Tracer, she would certainly be interesting moveset-wise but otherwise I'm not too interested in her. But the big reason why I give her this score is because well as you saw I absolutely adore Crash and I want him badly so if Tracer got in then she would deconfirm him.

Now usually I don't let other characters impact my want score for a specific character. But that is only if I like that character and I want them too. For example even though Phoenix is my most wanted Capcom character, I would be happy with Monster Hunter, Dante, Arthur, Frank West, etc. That is because I have a connection to those series. Heck even if Spyro miraculously got in over Crash I would still be happy because I enjoy his games too. Overwatch on the other hand, I unfortunately did not enjoy my time with it so not only am I not interested in it being included in Smash, I would be honestly disappointed if it was included and not Crash.

I will say that if Crash gets in this pass and there is further DLC, my want score would be higher.

Predictions:
Sora - 15%
Layton - 25%

Noms:
Among Us character x10
Excitebiker x10

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Crash


Chance: 65%

After Ms. Arle, he is a character that is very high in my predictions. Crash really has it all: The popularity, the relevancy, the fan demand, the iconicness, etc and despite accounts of Activision being stingy or hard in negotiations when it comes to crossovers, I am sure Activision would not be too demanding on passing up an opportunity to put Crash in one of the biggest video game crossovers in media ever. However even Superman has a big weakness and Crash's Kryptonite is that he is a western character. We already have received a token western character in Steve, and Nintendo and Sakurai prefers promoting Japanese franchises. Not to mention that he faces heavy competition for a potential second western rep such as Doomguy, Dragonborn, Rayman, etc. Still, I feel confident that Crash would end up being the second western character selected and will be revealed at the next E3 probably.

Want: 70%

While I am not a super big Crash fan, I did enjoy playing Crash Warped back in the day and I think Crash would be a welcomed addition to the Smash roster.

Abstain on Tracer

Velvet Crowe x5

 

[chocolatejr9]

Does anybody have any tips on finding your older posts? I wanna just post my last rating for Tracer, but it took me forever to find my last Rex rating, and I have a feeling this'll take even longer...

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Warning, swear words and adult humour

https://youtu.be/VFvlbboxRYo

Chance: 30% Crash honestly feels like there's a lot going for him, I personally believe plans for the second pass weren't considered that much longer after the first one and hey, what do you know, Crash lucked out massively, the N. Sane Trilogy came out and became the best selling game of the month, which sounds insignificant but it was in the same month as Horizon Zero Dawn and got released on the last few days of the month, going on to sell over 10 million copies, Activision's also been actively pushing Crash with CTR's remake, also selling excellently. This started in 2017, meaning by the time they were finalizing the first pass, they HAD to know Crash became as big as he used to be, which for those who don't remember, Crash was huge in the 90's, so much so he even got a lot of love in Japan. Crash 4 also came out last year meaning Activision still wants him aroumd, and while reports say it wasn't as successful as the N. Sane trilogy, the only negative report I found was exclusively talking about physical sales in the UK, not sure if most people here are aware of it, but we're in the middle of a ****ing pandemic, not to mention Crash 4 was never going to sell as well, not being able to sell itself as 3 games in 1 alongside being fullprice when N. Sane was 40 bucks since launch. Nintendo also seems to value this as N. Sane sold very well on the Switch too. I don't see him as an inevitability but he's certainly worth keeping an eye out for.

Want: 50% Fun fact, I haven't touched a Crash game in well over 15 years, and I only ever beat 1 level in said game, the Great Wall level with Coco and the tiger in 3. Despite this, Crash is a pretty fun character to me as he's literally just a Looney Tunes character but from a game franchise. One major concern I see is that he doesn't seem like he'd have an interesting moveset, which you know, is fair, the classics only have him use like 4 moves and every moveset always uses the exact same specials, this isn't "no gimmick? This sucks lmao" but rather "Ok so what does he do for most of the moveset? 4 moves only gets you so far with all these attacks Smash characters have!" I have to agree here as people who aren't already Crash fans won't get sold by making up stuff for potential normals, but I feel Crash can get past this,

Lesbiam
Lesbiab
Less bien

Chance: 1% Overwatch is certainly pretty large and it also has a future with a sequel officially announced, there's also muh nintendo relevance, as there's the Switch port and like Crash, Activision's had a very healthy Switch relationship, though I think the issue ends up being 'Why go after Tracer specifically?' I can't really think of anything, the best I can think of is how unique she'd be, which to be fair, dual pistols and time shenanigans are both things no Smash character's ended up using. I just cannot see this happening, though not impossible.

Want: abstaining, I never really cared about Overwatch and thus don't have enough to form a personal opinion on it, canonical lesbian's nice though

Velvet Crowe x10
Zagreus x10

 

[Sari]

Does anybody have any tips on finding your older posts? I wanna just post my last rating for Tracer, but it took me forever to find my last Rex rating, and I have a feeling this'll take even longer...

If you click the search button at the top right, you can search by posts in this specific thread as well as the search terms and the person who typed it.

Here you go:

Search results for query: Tracer

smashboards.com

 

[chocolatejr9]

Thanks Sari you saved me from brain-melting.

Anyways, the ratings.

Crash Bandicoot

Chance: 45%
Don't get me wrong, I do think Crash is the most likely Western rep. However, I will admit I think he's a bit overrated. I know a lot of people tend to look at the five-year plan as proof, but getting Crash in Smash isn't as simple as that. It requires negotiations with Nintendo, unlike everything else on that list. While I don't think the cartoon thing affects his chances, it DOES show that Activision can be a bit hard to work with, even with companies that are leniant like Amazon. Despite that, though, I do think he still has a shot.
Want: 75%
I'll admit, I'm not the biggest fan of Crash. I always had a hard time getting into the original games (I think it was the sorta hallway structure they had), though I did enjoy CTR. Ironically, the first Crash game I got into was Crash of the Titans, which has a bit of a negative reputation. Plus, as one of the few people who actually LIKED Skylanders, his inclusion there was VERY welcome. While he's not my most-wanted, I definetly wouldn't complain if he came to Smash.

Anyway, here's the Tracer rating from last time:

Tracer

Chance: 0%
I don't know how much of this is my own bias talking, but I don't see Tracer happening. For starters, that AMA isn't the only time they've indirectly deconfirmed her (though it is the most notable). Secondly, keep in mind that Activision is involved here too. She's not getting in before Crash, plain and simple.
Want: 0%
I'm sorry, but Overwatch in Smash is one of the few things I DON'T want. The game is way past relevancy even with the confirmed sequal (have they even updated us about that since Blizzcon?). Plus, Tracer herself is kinda boring, honestly. Like, she shoots you and then she teleports away. Okay... what else can she do? Seriously, WHAT ELSE CAN SHE DO? I still can't even figure that out. I may not know much about Master Chief or Doomguy, but I at least know they do more than just shoot people and bail.

Spoiler alert: nothing has changed. Not even my opinion.

Nominations: [Rerate] Monokuma x20

 

[fogbadge]

abstain dont like either of them. nom qbby x5

 

[Louie G.]

Oh boy, alright. I've got some kinda hot takes for this one, apparently.

CRASH BANDICOOT

CHANCE - 15%
I guess I'll be the first of the day to say that I do not find Crash Bandicoot likely, and I think his chances are one of if not the most overrated in the community.

I'll start with the good stuff, Crash has a lot of things that make him a very solid choice for Smash - and regardless of whether you think he's likely or not, I don't think anyone would deny that. He's a well-known and well-loved character who has seen notable success on a worldwide scale. He's often considered the mascot of the PS1 and had a brief stint as a competitor toward Mario, and he's got historical significance in being one of the first successful 3D platforming series that earned the praise of Mr. Miyamoto himself. His series crashed and burned for a little while, only to see a successful revival in 2017 through the N Sane Trilogy, and it has been made pretty clear that Crash is once again here to stay.

This is all great stuff in a vacuum, and everyone is already well aware of it. My issue has been trying to come up with a reason why Nintendo of Japan would be swayed toward the Bandicoot, and how he fits into what we can gather from our current cycle of DLC.

Despite the addition of Banjo and Steve, being a western character is still a barrier. I think people will often misinterpret me saying this as affirming this arbitrary barrier that has already been broken and no, I don't think being a western character in and of itself disqualifies a character or that there's a "western character" quota to fill and we can't get any more of them. But there are still unique complications that come with being a western developed character that make investing in them more of a gamble, and also the fact that we have deeply ingrained western biases that may give us the impression that some characters are bigger than they are in general.

Crash is a much bigger deal here than he is in Japan. Don't get me wrong, they know who he is. Crash was successful during the PS1, so there's at least a comparable amount of notoriety there to someone like Banjo who they similarly had little difficulty recognizing. Nowadays though, I'm not as sure the Japanese market cares about Crash. From what I've read, and feel free to correct me with statistics if I'm wrong, but N Sane Trilogy onward has not exactly been selling gangbusters over there. It's been doing very well here, and put Crash back on the map, but it doesn't seem like the same can be said for Crash's once significant Japanese presence. Which of course is the place where they'll be making this decision.

Actually, from this point forward I'm just gonna post something I wrote the other day in regards to Crash and why I find him unlikely because I'd just be reiterating it anyway.

Backing a western character is always a bit of a risk and we have two very special cases in Banjo and Steve. Crash is fairly recognizable in Japan from his heyday but doesn't really have the extreme level of longstanding support that Banjo did (I'll elaborate on this) nor the worldwide prominence and success that Steve does (well, nobody does really) - which makes him a less safe character to back. There are still language barriers and necessary travel and blah blah blah, Activision also does not have the same working relationship that Microsoft had with Nintendo. I struggle to find a good reason why Nintendo of Japan would specifically select him, honestly.

On top of this though (elaborating on his demand now), I feel Crash is simply too little too late. We're finding that a lot of these characters were planned well ahead of time. Crash's most vocal support missed the ballot, which has played a major role in character selection. More specifically, Crash's major fan demand came alongside DLC, and there is more and more reason to believe our third party characters have been in discussion before FP2 was properly announced. Unlike someone like Banjo, Crash's prominence within the community is a relatively new thing and I feel needs time to truly have an effect on the roster.

He's established a modern presence for himself, but I feel like this was really solidified with the release of CTR remake and Crash 4... which I think were just too late to have any significant impact on Smash. This is more of a gut feeling on my end but Crash being as big as he is now doesn't feel like it applied as strongly back in 2017-18. Despite N Sane's release, it was simply a remake that we didn't know would establish Crash as an icon once again or lead to further games developed for the franchise yet. I just think he missed the boat, honestly.

Yeah I don't know, Crash is weird because he seems like someone with a lot going for him at face value, but when you dive deeper you realize most of those points only boil down to "he's requested" and "he's iconic". When I ask for genuine points in Crash's favor from people who believe he is likely, it usually can be categorized under those two labels and not much else. Those two things can get and have gotten characters into Smash in their own right, but I feel that Crash's resurgence is still too fresh and his Smash popularity still too new to have had any significant impact on the roster.

But this is all justification for the simple fact that I simply just do not think he will be in. Gut feeling. It doesn't help that we only have three characters left, how Crash is often touted as a really big deal but how, if FP1 is anything to go by, we'll start seeing a steady decline in how massive these additions are since most people have already bought the pass through Steve and Sephiroth by now. And with only three opportunities left, and characters who I feel have even more reason to get added than Crash does... look, bottom line, not everyone can make it. I'm just not seeing it.

WANT - 45%
He's fine. Kinda tired of hearing about him but his inclusion is warranted. Not a whole lot exciting about his abilities but he would probably be fun. Don't have much attachment to his games but the same could be said about most of the other characters we've gotten too. I'm pretty much a hard neutral.

TRACER

CHANCE - 12%
Another bold take, Tracer has just as many reasons to be chosen as Crash. We have a tendency as a community to favor classic characters over newer ones, and I think there's a general ambivalence toward Overwatch in particular where nobody wants to give it the credit it's earned, but OW has become a pretty huge brand, Tracer a pretty iconic character and it has left a significant footprint on the ever-growing worldwide esports market. It's a very prominently character-driven series that has a lot to offer in terms of an interesting fighter.

If there is an intent to pull more modern "all-stars" to keep the roster fresh and cover various untapped sections of the gaming community and history, Tracer is a valid representation of the MMO, class-based FPS genre that is so prominent in competitive gaming (sorry TF2), which is also becoming one of the most profitable and prominent aspects of gaming in general over the last decade. Blizzard and Nintendo have been shown to have at least a working relationship through various conversations and a couple collaborations, and the release of OW on Switch was treated as somewhat of a special thing at the time. We've seen Blizzard face a number of controversies but it's not like Nintendo's hands are squeaky clean either.

I don't particularly think Tracer is happening, or even that she's more likely than Crash, but seeing people be like "well if Activision gets a character it HAS to be Crash" rubs me the wrong way. Crash has spent the better half of the last 15 years being completely irrelevant - he's not their mascot or anything. These last 3-4 years have been great for Crash, but let's not pretend Activision wasn't doing just fine without him. I don't say this as a condemnation toward Crash as much as I just want to highlight that people are putting Crash on a bit of an undeserved platform over the equally valid and prominent Tracer. Maybe if Tracer was the star of a platformer people would feel differently.

WANT - 30%
And it's not like I want to see Overwatch in Smash. I'm not as vehemently opposed to it as some other people seem to be, and I genuinely think Tracer could be a fun character, but there are dozens of series that I feel have better earned their place and don't have the baggage that OW / Blizzard would carry with them. If Tracer got in it would be one of the most controversial characters ever and that discourse would be exhausting.

PREDICTIONS:
Sora - 17%
Professor Layton - 13.5%

NOMS: BILLY & JIMMY LEE x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Crash is a much bigger deal here than he is in Japan. Don't get me wrong, they know who he is. Crash was successful during the PS1, so there's at least a comparable amount of notoriety there to someone like Banjo who they similarly had little difficulty recognizing. Nowadays though, I'm not as sure the Japanese market cares about Crash. From what I've read, and feel free to correct me with statistics if I'm wrong, but N Sane Trilogy onward has not exactly been selling gangbusters over there. It's been doing very well here, and put Crash back on the map, but it doesn't seem like the same can be said for Crash's once significant Japanese presence. Which of course is the place where they'll be making this decision.

I did not mention this in my write up but apparently Crash N Sane did ok for itself its first week in Japan, reaching 5th in terms of sales its debut week. That being said, I think one big underlying factor that might have influenced its sales is it launched right after Dragon Quest XI launched, and we all know how big Dragon Quest is. That being said, based on it still selling ok there right after one of the biggest, if not the biggest game of that year came out and the fact Activision is still pushing Crash hard makes me lean towards while Crash is not breaking sales records, it is still doing very well at least compared to other Western properties. Outside of that, I have not seen anything that says the franchise is selling bad there, it seems to be selling alright. Combine that with the fact he has at least some Japanese demand for smash and I think that it can be said that he is doing ok for himself in that regard.

I liked your write up a lot even if I personally disagreed, I can understand being skeptical of a western character still.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Moving on, the first Crash game I know for a fact that I've played is actually Crash The Huge Adventure on GBA

That was my first Crash game, too!!! I never thought I'd know another person who had the same experience!


Crash Bandicoot

Chance: 70% - Still feeling confident in Crash, though as the pass' available slots disappear it dwindles slightly. Crash is by far the most likely western character alongside Dragonborn, and, if we get an FP3, Master Chief. Activision's relationship remains good with Nintendo, and even with Crash 4 not on the Switch yet, we know it's coming (hopefully they're taking extra time to optimize the Switch port), and both N. Sane Trilogy and Nitro Fueled sold fantastically on Switch, so the money is definitely there for Activision to get Crash in Smash for Nintendo's audience. Really, Crash's pedigree continues to hold up as time passes, and as of now there hasn't really been anything to harm Crash's chances. My only concern is that Crash has effectively two slots left instead of three. Amiibo Theory implies that our next character is in March, and I highly doubt they'd reveal a huge door buster choice like Crash during that time. But on the other side of things, Crash has until the end of the year, which means both E3 (presumably) and the Game Awards, both huge western-based events, and what better way to hype it up than to reveal a huge Western choice? Even with the amount of slots slowly shrinking, the Nitrp Fuel isn't running out any time soon!

Want: 100% - By far one of my most wanted characters, my experience with Crash takes me way back. My first Crash game was actually The Huge Adventure on the GBA, and I loved that game. It felt so good finally finding the colored gems, and I eventually 101%'d the game several times! Later on I got back into Crash with Capitalist's Let's Plays of the Trilogy, Wrath of Cortex, and Twinsanity, and a year later the N. Sane Trilogy comes out. I played it and had an absolute blast, and I really hope we get Crash 4 on Switch soon so I can play it, too! Crash, despite his Playstation association, has had many entries on Nintendo systems, and would be perfect for completing the trio with Mario and Sonic. Despite his more simplistic moves, he still has a ton to pull from for a moveset (h***, Crash can even have RANGE with the fruit bazooka!), and with Steve's block mechanics already in place, what's stopping him from dropping some crates? Crash would be a phenomenal addition to Smash and is one of the only characters who truly feels missing from the roster. He's got a Nintendo pedigree, a rich history, an extremely successful revival, and crowd-pleaser popularity, both in the west AND in Japan! I can't think of a good reason the NOT add Crash, he's just that fantastic of a character!


Tracer

Chance: 20% - Gonna give Tracer a decent score here due to her corporate synergy with Nintendo right now. Even if it was cancelled by Blizzard, an Overwatch event at Nintendo World was planned, which is already a huge deal. Overwatch is on the Switch now and Nintendo regularly advertises the game's special events via the Switch news page. This already shows that Nintendo has their eye on the game and the money it can make. And with Overwatch 2 along the way, support is continuing for the future, along with it providing promotional potential. So Tracer's got a decent shot,

I feel like only a couple of things stand in her way. The first was the Overwatch director's AMA back in September about which Overwatch character people would most want in Smash. While this could already be bad prospects for Overwatch as a whole, as this was right before negotiations wrapped up for FP2 (and I highly doubt one would make an AMA for an NDA lie), but that Tracer might get hit with the same thing Spring Man did. Now, Tracer is on all of the marketing, she's the game's mascot. But I often see characters like Doomfist or Lucio presented as alternative choices to Tracer, and while I think she may win out on a popularity poll, it does put her Overwatch frontrunner status into question.

The other problem is Overwatch's lack of popularity in Japan. They don't even have a major circuit team for Japan in the Overwatch League because there just isn't enough interest, likely due to the lack of shooter popularity there. While she could be a major Western choice, I doubt Nintendo would choose a character who's not profitable in Japan (and for reference, there were a lot of Japanese players who were excited about Banjo-Kazooie).

Competition with other shooter reps goes back and forth. If we get FP3 then Master Chief is a big problem for her, while on the other side of the coin, Doom Slayer was deconfirmed so he isn't a problem for her, and Valve has no relationship with Nintendo so The Heavy or Gordon Freeman won't be a problem for her either.

Want: 20% - She'd be alright. I do like her abilities and I think she'd be a very unique shooter rep for Smash. I also really liked her for awhile during my senior year of college and a good friend and I played the game together, so I do have plenty of experience with her as a character. Though the big problem is competition. I don't think it would be good for her to get in over Crash, providing that Blizzard and Activision are considered the same entity in terms of Smash negotiations. Now, if they were considered separate than the score would go up a bit, but she isn't my first choice for a new Smash rep, especially with only three slots left. Plus, if I were to choose an Overwatch rep, I'd pick Winston anyways, since he's my favorite member of the cast.


Nominations:
4x Strategy Rep x10
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's alt/echo x10

Predictions:
Sora - 21.67% - It really depends on whether or not people think Sephiroth hurts him or not.
Professor Layton - 12.45% - He's like Ryu Hayabusa in the "makes sense but isn't in for some reason" department, though with the internal troubles at Level-5, along with them shutting down their localization studio and competition from Jibanyan, I don't see much confidence in Layton.

 

[Bobthealligator]

Both:
They share a lot of the same arguments, which is why Crash's individual pros section is so small.
Pros:
Nintendo did a free trial for both Overwatch and Crash Team Racing. On it's own it doesn't mean anything but it does show that Nintendo at least somewhat cares about both franchises.
Both characters are incredibly recognisable and would be hype reveals for a lot of people.
The Skylanders thing happened, but it was a long ime ago
Cons:
Activision have a reputation of being quite difficult to work with.
The support on the Switch hasn't been great, they tend to delay their releases to maximise the number of people who double dip. Though prior to this year Capcom was a lot worse.
Both are Western characters.

Crash:
Pros:
Crash is the only missing 'console wars' mascot.
Cons:
It's worth mentioning that none of the Crash ports were highlighted in a Nintendo Direct, and were relugated to sizzle reel fodder.
Crash had been irrelevant for a long time when this DLC was being decided. N Sane Trilogy had been successful and a comeback was on the cards, but it's possible Nintendo wanted a more concrete idea of the franchise's future.
Similarly Crash's popularity as a Smash pick is also fairly recent. In the Smash Ballot, most of his support was eclipsed by that of Rayman and Banjo, so Nintendo don't really have a clear metric of how popular he is among the fan base.
Moveset wise (Which I'd like to point has been a massive focus of the second pass) Crash has what I like to call 'The Sonic Problem' which is when a character's skill set in their base game hinges on one very simple action, in this case 'spinning', which could lead to some issues translating a character into Smash in an engaging way.

Tracer:
Pros:
Overwatch is very popular in a market that Nintendo has been putting a lot of resources into lately: China. Tracer in Smash could give Ultimate a massive boost when the game eventually launches.
Tracer has some unique moveset potential too.
Overwatch could potentially be another 'break the internet level real.
Unlike Crash, Overwatch coming to Switch was revealed in a Nintendo Direct
Cons:
The Blizzard Hong Kong controversy could be something that Nintendo wants to stay away from.
Some higher ups at Blizzard did say Diablo would be their pick if they were to get a character in Smash.

In conclusion:
I think this is an odd situation where the community is mistaken about both character's odds. I've seen a lot of people tout Crash as a lock, but honestly I don't see it, it's true he's got stuff going for him, but other characters have a lot more going for them, in fact Crash not getting in this pass is something I'd be more than willing to bet money on. Similarly I think Tracer is underrated, Overwatch is like Minecraft in terms of the franchise's reach. I still doubt we'll get another Western character in the pass, but I think if we do, Tracer definately takes priority over Crash.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

It's worth mentioning that none of the Crash ports were highlighted in a Nintendo Direct, and were regulated to sizzle reel fodder.
Crash had been irrelevant for a long time when this DLC was being decided. N Sane Trilogy had been successful and a comeback was on the cards, but it's possible Nintendo wanted a more concrete idea of the franchise's future.

Gonna contest these two points.

Crash N Sane was directly highlighted in a Nintendo direct, the same one that Smash Ultimate was teased in.

Furthermore, based on Sakurai's comments, this DLC was not decided on in full until around November of 2019. We also can use the timeline for Banjo to get a rough idea of when talks in specific would happen for a smash character, in Banjo's case they appear to have happened around June of 2018. I think after that point we can say that the future of the franchise was not as much of a question mark anymore around 2019, when this wave of DLC would have been chosen.

 

[Bobthealligator]

Gonna contest these two points.

Crash N Sane was directly highlighted in a Nintendo direct, the same one that Smash Ultimate was teased in.

Furthermore, based on Sakurai's comments, this DLC was not decided on in full until around November of 2019. We also can use the timeline for Banjo to get a rough idea of when talks in specific would happen for a smash character, in Banjo's case they appear to have happened around June of 2018. I think after that point we can say that the future of the franchise was not as much of a question mark anymore around 2019, when this wave of DLC would have been chosen.

My bad on the first one, but I'm going to disagree with the second point, Crash 4 was announced in 2020, and while I will admit there was a decent chance Crash was making a comeback, nothing was certain. That is a small con though, I don't think it makes a massive difference but still thought it might be worth mentioning.

 

[Golden Icarus]

Crash
Chance: 40%

I think Crash is one of the most likely characters. Right now he is my third most confident prediction after a Tales rep and Hayabusa. I don't need to elaborate on everything that he has going for him, as we are all well aware of his credentials. My general view is that he is such a huge icon and obvious addition that it would be shocking if Nintendo somehow didn't choose to include him. However, the trials of getting a western character in Smash is already a huge challenge on its own and enough of a reason to have some doubt. Even if he has so much going for him, that doesn't change the fact that there are plenty of characters that are just as iconic that Sakurai doesn't have to go outside of Japan for. And despite him being a gaming icon, his sales numbers aren't quite up to snuff with series like Sonic and Final Fantasy. Monster Hunter, Tomb Raider, Assassin's Creed, Mortal Kombat, The Elder Scrolls and many others all outsell him.

Don't let that fool you though. He's still a widely recognizable character with a lot of historical significance. A 40% chance is a high honor at this point. Like I said, this is going off the assumption that we're only getting three more characters, so getting more than a 15% chance is quite the feat.

Want: 70%

I was a Nintendo kid, so Crash isn't really in my blood. Even after playing the N-Sane trilogy, I still don't have any strong feelings towards the series. However, having such a huge icon in Smash would still be extremely exciting. While he's not on the level of Mario and Sonic, he is still in that vain of 'major gaming icon and console mascot,' so that's pretty epic.

Tracer
Chance: 3%

I'm not confident in this one. Even in the face of other Blizzard reps, there is a fair amount of competition. Diablo and Warcraft have both been around longer and have similarly massive followings. Still, Overwatch has proven to be a huge hit with a lot of staying power. I just don't see it translating into a character. But I've been surprised before and Tracer is still a real possibility.

Want: 50%

I enjoy Overwatch, but it's not my favorite. She could be an interesting character, just not one I would jump out of my seat for.

Predictions
Sora 9%
Layton 7%

Nom: LoL Rep x5

 

[Dr. Yatagarasu]

I did not mention this in my write up but apparently Crash N Sane did ok for itself its first week in Japan, reaching 5th in terms of sales its debut week. That being said, I think one big underlying factor that might have influenced its sales is it launched right after Dragon Quest XI launched, and we all know how big Dragon Quest is. That being said, based on it still selling ok there right after one of the biggest, if not the biggest game of that year came out and the fact Activision is still pushing Crash hard makes me lean towards while Crash is not breaking sales records, it is still doing very well at least compared to other Western properties. Outside of that, I have not seen anything that says the franchise is selling bad there, it seems to be selling alright. Combine that with the fact he has at least some Japanese demand for smash and I think that it can be said that he is doing ok for himself in that regard.

I liked your write up a lot even if I personally disagreed, I can understand being skeptical of a western character still.

Here's the sales data for Crash across all his games in Japan.
Currently not great, compared to his massive success during the PS1-PS2 era, but N-Sane Trilogy at least did better than many a western game - around 360 era Halo tier, basically (which was essentially Halo at its height in Japan before Xbox One sent Xbox in Japan to its grave).
Also it was successful in the past, so I'm sure some older smash players at least will easily recognize him.