Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Erureido]

Double abstaining for today. I'm not feeling in the mood to rate both characters.

I'm also abstaining from predictions.

------

Nominations

Only 4-6 newcomers in Smash Ultimate's base roster: x5

 

[Quetzal77]

Shantae
Chance: 0% / Want: 0%
I'm not feeling like there's going to be indie characters. It feels like the goal of this game is to add the biggest missing Nintendo stars and Daisy and maybe a few big recent characters, but Indies? I don't see it happening.

Shovel Knight
Chance: 1% / Want: 0%
Same as above but I feel like on the very tiny chance there is an indie character it'll be him. Plenty of third parties I want more though.

Nominations: Neku x 5

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Shantae
Chance: 15%
Lower than before, but I still think there's a decent shot. Nintendo loves to promote indies and Shantae is the indie queen. I do think that if Sakurai wanted an indie character in, it would be Shantae, not Shovel Knight.

Want: 90%
This is the same as before. While HGH was a little disappointing, I still love the series and the character.

Shovel Knight
Chance: 5%
It's possible since he had a lot of ballot presence, but I think it's more likely Sakurai would have recognized him as a flavor-of-the-month choice and would have skipped him for a new game.

Want: 20%
I haven't played the game so I have no attachment, but I wouldn't be very against it. A shovel could make for some interesting stuff.

Nominate Fire Emblem Three Houses Protagonist x5

 

[Wyoming]

Going to butt in with another potential disconfirmation: Snip & Clip

Smash Blog had an update in the music page about a track from the series, and a unique series icon was missing. Open to debate or?

 

[-crump-]

Abstaining from Shantae, I don’t really know what to say about her. Wouldn’t be upset if she was in, though.


Shovel Knight
Chance: 15%
Aside from his notable ballot presence, the main thing ol’ Butt Butt has in his favor is the fact that Nintendo looooooooves their Indie games. Shovel Knight, since it’s launch, has become an icon of the indie game scene, receiving massive critical acclaim and appearing in dozens of cameos. What’s more, it has received support from Nintendo itself in the form of Japanese publication and amiibo support, which are no small feats.
Basically, Shovel Knight is arguably the face of indie games, and thanks to Yacht Club’s good relationship with Nintendo, along with the popularity that SK received during the Ballot Era, makes me think that he would be the first choice for an indie character.

Want: 100%
Shovel Knight is one of my favorite video games; I think it’s amazing, and having he titular knight playable in Smash would be a dream come true. His moveset potential is clear, his abilities are unique and fun, and his series is home to amazing setting and music. Besides K. Rool, this is my most wanted character, no question.

noms: Rick/Kine/Coo x5

 

[DjinnandTonic]

Shovel Knight:
Chance: 30%
Seems about as reasonable of newcomer as any. Has the potential moveset, good sales, decent reputation and notability. He's not a top-tier choice, but he's got a fairly decent shot.

Want: 60%
I really like Shovel Knight and his games. I think he'd work well as a fighter. I'm not entirely sold on wanting Indie characters over characters from more long-running series, but I'm keeping an open mind. I feel like today's Indies are the future's All-Stars. Worth keeping an eye on that for Smash 6 if nothing else.

Shantae:
Chance: 30%
I'd rate her somewhat lower than Shovel Knight due to somewhat lower notability, but she has more games, a longer history, and a history on Nintendo platforms, which evens the playing field.

Want: 70%
I really like how expansive Shantae's world has become in recent years. She has a lot of cool moves and abilities. Her games are incredibly polished, even compared to bigger-name platformers like Rayman. Also, I do like the idea of her bringing in more female characters and more human characters of different races. Smash is a colorful cast, and there's not enough Purple-haired Genies in that cast!

Nom: Leon Kennedy x10

 

[Gerrothorax]

Zeroes across the board.
Nominations: x10 Thwomp

 

[andimidna]

Shovel Knight:
An indie character conceptually doesn’t make much sense, but there is a significant push for both of these as individual characters themselves. Despite starting out by getting big on Nintendo platforms, he’s expanded success to multiple others, which helps recognizability but loses Nintendo exclusivity. We don’t have any precedence for Indie newcomers to base this off of, so it’s impossible to be sure
Chance: 16%
Want: 65%
Shantae:
The opposite side of the same coin. Both are relevant and interesting. She’s the other popular indie pick with proven longevity, but not the same breakout success of Shovel Knight. More Nintendo ties and exclusivity, but not the reach to different audiences of Shovel Knight. Been requested for longer, but likely not to the same extent as Shovel Knight during the actual ballot period. It’s not easy to say which is in the lead and whether either would be picked at all
Chance: 15%
Want: 85%

Predictions:
?

x4 Hanafuda character
x1 Style Savvy character

 

[Kitty-chan]

Shantae

Chance: 5%
Opinion hasn't changed much nya. I have a hard time believing we'll be getting indie characters in smash nya.

Want: 30%
Opinion hasn't changed nyaa. Indifferent nyabout her game, she is a bit cute though and could have an interesting moveset, so I wouldn't be dissapointed nya.


Shovel Knight

Chance: 7.5%
Opinion hasn't changed nyaaaa. He may have done well in the ballot, but I'm skeptical nevertheless nya.

Want: 15%
Opinion hasn't changed nyaaaaaaaa. I have nyo interest in seeing Shovel Knight in smash nya... but I won't be upset nya.


Nyominations
Tingle: x10

 

[Isaac: Venus Adept]

SHANTAE
CHANCES 42%- She's really popular and her inclusion in Smash is heavily supported by her developers at WayForward but her Western status may hold her back. Her inclusion also heavily depends on whether Masahiro Sakurai is inclined to add indie characters as playable characters.
She's had huge popularity on the ballot and she has an extended legacy starting from the Gameboy Color. Wayforward is a well respected studio as well developing games for other studios with positive reception
WANT- 58% I personally feel like Shantae deserves this spot more than Shovel Knight as she has appeared in more games and she looks like she will be a way more interesting character than Shovel Knight. Also I love her character design and the personality of her and her series in general.

SHOVEL KNIGHT
CHANCES 45% - He's kind of becoming the Mario of Indie Games as he is making various cameos and appearances in notable indie titles such as Yooka-Laylee, Indivisible, Blaster Master,Runbow etc. He has even clashed with gaming icons like Kratos and the BattleToads. He was the first non Smash Bros third party character to get his own amiibo. Like Shantae he had huge popularity on the ballot and he even topped some heavily requested Nintendo characters on fan polls which is impressive for an indie with only one game. His game is also still in the spotlight as it is being constantly updated with new campaigns so that helps. But he has Western status and like Shantae we need to see if Sakurai wants an indie playable character or not
WANT- 49% The game is really good but I personally feel it's kind of early for Shovel Knight to appear in Smash. He should have a more established franchise and his inclusion would open the floodgates for less desireable characters who I feel don't need to be in Smash and hasn't proved their legacy. His moveset potential sounds cool but not interesting enough for me to really want him that badly

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

Shantae: Want 100%

I absolutely love the Shantae games. The gameplay is excellent, the art style is beautiful, and the main character is sexy.

I abstain from the other votes

 

[Deleted member]

Pretty Shantae
Chance: 20%
Want: +∞²% (100%, my most wanted actually)

Shovel Knight
Chance: 35%
Want: abstain


Noms:
Female announcer x10

Geno prediction: 28.31%
Dillon prediction: 27.82%

 

[Scamper52596]

Shantae

Chance: 5%
I was one of the few who previously thought Indie characters in Smash were plausible, but after the big reveal of the game at E3 I now think it's not likely at all. I doubt we're going to see any other 3rd party characters outside of the current companies backing Smash, and Simon Belmont seems likely to be the new (and probably only) 3rd party addition to the roster. With how big this game is and how limited new unique characters are going to be I doubt Sakurai is going to go out of his way to get other 3rd party companies on board until maybe the DLC period everybody suspects we're going to get. I'll give the Half Genie Hero a score of 5%.
Base roster doesn't seem likely for Indie characters...

Want: 92%
My personal Indie character of choice. I think her games are really fun, and she would be a cool addition to Smash.


Shovel Knight

Chance: 7%
Pretty much all of the same reasoning as above. Rated slightly higher because I still believe Shovel Knight has the slight edge over Shantae, but that's not saying much. I'll give the Knight with the shovel a score of 7%.
I wonder if Indie characters will be more likely for DLC...

Want: 60%
He would probably be a fun character, and I bet he would come along with a neat stage and music from his game. I just think there are more interesting Indie characters they could add.

Nominations
Tetra x 5

 

[VexTheHex]

Shovel Knight & Shantae
Chance - 4% (Each)
With limited space of the roster, I kind of doubt we'll get either one of these Indie characters. There's always that slight chance though, but I don't think it's happening.
Want - 10% (Each)
Both have some unique charm to them. However I'm not exactly rooting for either of them and think there's bigger names and icons than both of these two.

Nominations
5x Incineroar
5x Monster Hunter

 

[ZTurtle]

Shovel Knight:
Chance: 25%
I do think that if we are going to get an indie character, it'll probably be Shovel Knight. The dude's been everywhere nowadays. That being said, he still doesn't seem particularly likely compared to other third parties and he doesn't have a big presence in Japan.

Want: 55%
I guess it would be kinda cool to see him in. During Sm4sh DLC speculation I would have been really annoyed if he got in. But nowadays, eh, I wouldn't mind too much. Honestly, he would have been lower, but I'd be interested in seeing him also because my sister is a big Shovel Knight fan, so I'd be interested in seeing how she'd react.

Shantae:
Chance: 5%
I don't really see her happening honestly. Sure she's older than Shovel Knight, but I don't think she's ever reached the level of popularity and recognition that Shovel Knight has today. Her history is why I have her at 5% and not 0%, though I'd still say she's highly unlikely.

Want: 15%
Never played a Shantae game really, and I'm pretty indifferent to her. I honestly don't feel like she has enough star power, and I can't say I'd be terribly interested in seeing her in. Good for her fans if she does get in though?

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Shovel Knight
Chance: 15%
Have to admit I might've overrated him a bit last time. Shovel Knight was a praised and succesfull game but carries little game history compared to other 3rd party characters both from the east and west. That and he's unfortunately a ''literally who'' in Japan. However with good ballot support and Ridley getting in due to western demand alone, I would't rule him out just yet.

Shantae
Chance: 2%
While she has more games than the knight and has been around for far longer, she and her games just don't seem to have the popularity Shovel Knight has. I'm of the believe that if Smash were to receive an indie character it would be the guy we constantly see cameos of in other games. (Don't know if Minecraft can really be considered indie anymore)

Geno: 30.88%
Dillon 19.27%

Leon Kennedy x10

 

[ShinyRegice]

Shantae chances: 5%
What I wrote for her day:

I think an indie character is something that could happen, but for the base game I'm doubtful, it's something I see as more likely for DLC, and I think there are more famous indie titles that could get represented before Shantae, such as Shovel Knight and Undertale (although the later has close to no chance for the base game since the Switch port is to be released later).

Shantae want: 10%
What I wrote for her day:

I used to find her or any other indie a terrible idea for a Smash character cuz you know that was when I made a huge deal out of the >>>ICONIC, HUGE, TIMELESS POP CULTURAL VIDEO GAME ICONS<<< thing, but now I'm less dogmatic about Smash character selection and I can get behind the idea of a playable indie in Smash. That said, I don't really care about her, and I have no personal attachment to any indie character that's often discussed on this forum. If I had to choose one myself, I'd go for personal perceived popularity, and to be fair I don't often hear of Shantae outside Smashboards; I feel that Shovel Knight and Undertale are more prominent titles, so I'd go for either of them personally. (Again, I have no personal attachment to any of these titles.)

Shovel Knight chances: 11%
What I wrote for his day:

At this point I could imagine an indie being added for the sake of one, and Shovel Knight seems like the most obvious choice considering his pretty much mainstream fame at this point. This however seems more likely to be added as DLC than the base game to me, and even then I have my doubts.

Shovel Knight want: 16%
What I wrote for his day:

I've warmed up to the idea of being more liberal about third-parties since the Smash DLC era, but that doesn't mean I want it. If he gets in, fine, but right now I don't really care. At least I can admit he's much more likely than a Roller Coaster Tycoon park visitor (I compared SK to that about three years ago in RTC DLC, I wasn't really lucid about his impact in the indie scene at that time )

I don't think things have changed for them, so I leave is the same as last time. I guess they didn't do bad on the ballot, but their chances rely on Sakurai wanting an indie for the sake of one which I don't think are too high, because there are many other potential third-party newcomers who arguably stand out more and the competition is fierce.

Geno prediction: 30.38%
Dillon prediction: 27.36%

Nominating:
Returning game mode: Smash Run x10

 

[PeridotGX]

Shovel Mercenary and Seantae

Chance: 20% (Both). They both don't look too likely with how this game looks to be focusing on all stars. They both have different advantages that makes them possible. Shovel Knight was published by Nintendo in Japan and has an amiibo, and
Shantae's series has been around for awhile.

Want: abstain. I haven't played much of their games.

Nomimnations: Leon Kennedy x10

 

[Zema]

Shantae: Abstain

Shovel Knight:
Chance: 5%
I don't think Western characters have much of a chance, but Shovel Knight is pretty popular. He has good moveset potential as well, though I don't know if he's a strong enough candidate to actually get into Smash.

Want: 75%
He's a really charming character and his design isn't offensive. I think he would fit in just wonderfully in Smash, plus I would love to have some Shovel Knight soundtracks in the game.

 

[DaUsername]

Shantae Knight
Chance: 0.01%
I do not see the "indie character" thing happening at all. They're also western third parties, which hurts their chances even more.
They might show up as trophies, though.
Want: 0%
I like their games, but I do not want to play as them in Smash.

Geno prediction: 25%
Dillon prediction: 20%
Noms: Smash Run x10

 

[MasterWarlord]

I don't have much to really differentiate these two from each other in terms of chance, they are the token indies. They are exclusively ballot characters if they get in, and they are now competing in a very tight roster with much bigger 3rd party names like Belmont, Rayman, Heihachi, and so on. Shovel Knight was blatantly the more popular of the two and got an amiibo. People thought this meant he was confirmed for SSB4, but that didn't happen. Barely any ballot characters happened for SSB4, so it could still be used for him, but there are so many obstacles he has to get past. Shantae I've barely seen evidence of her popularity at all. She doesn't have nothing, but you don't see her beating any notable characters.

Shovel Knight Chance 5%, Shantae Chance 0.25%

I don't really want either of them in Smash, but Shovel Knight's game and design at least look somewhat appealing to me. 8% Shovel Knight want, 0% Shantae want.

Nominate Fawful x10

 

[MacDaddyNook]

The two are in enough of the same boat that I'm going to rate them together.

Shantae & Shovel Knight:

Chance: 10%
Bayonetta's inclusion dispelled the notion that 3rd Party characters had to be iconic super stars in order to be considered. However, the fact that there will be less newcomers this time around is a major factor on this. As such, it looks like a new character must be either hugely popular internationally or something Sakurai personally has interest/sees big potential in. Being from smaller, Western developers, the demand for either character is pretty limited and there are still several characters with popularity that overshadow the two combined that haven't made it in (or get disconfirmed either). As for Sakurai's personal interest, I can't say if either are really on his radar or not, but I doubt either would be a priority to him even if they were.

Want: 50%
Both have plenty to work with as far as making unique and fun characters, but I have no strong personal connections to them. If either of them get in, it'd be a pleasant surprise, but I wont be disappointed if neither makes it.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Shovel Knight Chance 5%

Shantae Chance: 3%

Of the two I feel Shovel Knight is the more prominent. However, neither were very likely to begin with, and at this point, they're way more likely to appear as Assist Trophies (if they appear at all to begin with) than anything else.

Shovel Knight Want: 85%

Shantae Want: 50%

I love Shovel Knight and would more happily welcome the character into Smash. I'm largely indifferent to Shantae, though.

Nominations: Tetra x10

 

[CometX-ing]

Shovel Knight & Shantae

Chances: 5% & 20%
So yeah, they are both Indie characters, and thus have low as hell chances to get in, but of course there is the fact that Nintendo has been supporting their indies a lot in recent years. Still, they sit well below most if not all characters owned by the likes of Capcom, Sega, Namco and Konami and really most well known Japanese third party, especially given that they are western. I wouldn't say however, that they sit in entirely the same boat.

Shovel Knight in my honest opinion has a lower chance than Shantae does. He's too new by comparison and really doesn't have much of a series. I mean, he has expansions, but he's not even the star of those. Yacht Club is also far more indie than Wayforward is, I'll explain later.

The first thing that people will jump to in his favor is his popularity, which, while he is surely popular, that is without a doubt, attempting to say that he is more popular than Shantae and thus has a better shot isn't something that can be really proven. You could point to sales numbers, but since Wayforward doesn't really give their numbers, there is nothing to compare to. You could point to kickstarter backers, but if you do Shantae's kickstarter has more. You can't really look at review scores since those are related to quality, not popularity. You also can't point to how much he is talked about because those aren't really numbers and could be from a vocal minority.

The second thing people jump to is the Amiibo that Shovel Knight got and the fact that they have the first third party Amiibo. That is virtually meaningless because Yacht Club had to ask for and manufacture their own Amiibo, this is indicated by the difference in quality. If Nintendo asked if they could make them that would be something, and would even boost the significance of Shovel Knight getting the first third party Amiibo, but they didn't so both mean nothing at this point.

In conjunction with the Amiibo, people will often say that Yacht Club has a great relationship with Nintendo, and while that is true it's not like they are having the same kind of relationship that Nintendo is having with Ubisoft.

Then there is Shantae, a character who like I said, honestly has a better chance than Shovel Knight for a few reasons. First off, let address the point I brought up earlier about Wayforward being less Indie than Yacht Club.

Wayforward as a company has been around for years, since the early 90's I think, and they have a large swath of games under their belt and have worked with a number of companies on games in the past. I think people look at this from a solely Shovel Knight and Shantae perspective and the significance of their respective series rather than also looking at the companies that made them. This gives them far more significance than Yacht Club who is a relatively new studio with only one game and a couple of expansion under their belt.

You also can't talk about Shantae without talking about her own history, having existed since the early 2000's she has 4 games to her name, all but one of which released exclusively for Nintendo systems before being ported some years later. Half Genie Hero was the only game released on all systems, conversely Shovel Knight released on all systems and was even given exclusive in game boss fights for both Playstation and Xbox.

There is also the matter of Japanese receptions, which while they both have a following in Japan, Shantae's has a cult following while Shovel Knight from my understanding has a smaller one. Shantae had gotten a Japanese figure, and has another one on the way.

There is also the matter of the picture that Wayforwards level designer took with Sakurai in Santa Clarita, California. Which is exactly where Wayforwards headquarters is. While the guy said it was him sharing memories, the image was taken in 2015, a few months prior Sakurai completing his project plan, so there is the possibility that there is more to it.

Shantae's status as an indie character is pretty debatable overall given the company that made her and her having existed for many years. Still, despite all the points given, neither have a great shot given that they are both western and at least considered indie.

Want: 60% & 90%
In terms of these two character, I am more bias towards Shantae, but if we had to get an Shovel Knight as an indie character I would be happier with that than I would with any character from say Undertale or Steve. Still, I no doubt want Shantae more than any of them. Not just because I like her games more, but honestly because I think she deserves it more given her consistant track record of solid games and long history predating some more popular indie series, even Cave Story.

Nominations:
Primarina x10

 

[ProfPeanut]

Honestly, they'll both probably get Bomberman'd.


Shovel Knight

Chance: 10% (<-12%)
I know I put this guy on "Overrated", but he's still (relatively) on the forefront, enough to be above 1%. He's not an unattractive choice; in a game with so few newcomers coming, an indie rep would stand out all the greater, rather than getting lumped in with all the other advertisement picks.

The main problem is that if there's only a few newcomers to go around this time, then the spaces allotted for third-parties would have to be even fewer, or else you'd have a bigger ratio of third-party newcomers to actual Nintendo newcomers than people would be comfortable with. There's still a few more big-league third-parties that people can name too, characters that definitely outweigh Shovel Knight when compared directly. Would Shovel Knight really be a more deserving choice over, say, Banjo-Kazooie? Or Crash Bandicoot?

That might seem an unfair comparison, but really, it's absurd that people measure indie third-parties separately from all the other third-parties to start with. We've had little indication that indies get any preferential treatment in character choices at all, or that it'll even be a priority this time, or ever. Maybe it made sense to do so before, when the lack of an indie cameo inspired people to seek out the best choice. But when space is this tight, then everyone is competing against each other, and Shovel Knight just doesn't have the weight to win in that kind of situation.

Want: 20% (<-15%)
His role is one that was previously occupied by Meat Boy five years ago, and it'll probably be occupied by some other indie darling five years from now. Having an indie rep would be neat, and Shovel Knight wouldn't be the worst choice for it either, but now might simply not be a good time.


Shantae

Chance: 5%
Can we be honest here? Who even knows who Shantae is outside of Nintendo circles? Does she really deserve more than what an Assist Trophy would already give her? WayForward stuck around with Nintendo and helped pad out their library for ages, sure - but the same can be said for Rare Ltd., and look how many of their original characters are in Smash.

People keep judging her like she's a Nintendo character - she's not. People keep thinking WayForward's friendliness with Nintendo gives her better chances - it doesn't. People keep assuming that Bayonetta lowered the bar somehow - she won a poll, for God's sake. She didn't limbo under Sakurai's standards, she won by popular vote. Everyone else still has the same standards of Relevance and Significance applied to them. And in terms of notability or quality, Shantae's games fall in the firm middle - too well-made to be dumped with the Bubsies, but too generic to have a leg over the likes of Crash or Rayman. There's hardly anything noteworthy about her series, hardly anything that truly demands the respect of game history.

We have no basis on which to assume that being chummy with Nintendo eventually gets you a favor big enough to make one of your characters playable. If anything, history suggests that allying yourself with Nintendo's competitors does you a bigger favor. Then you could make Snakes, Sonics, Clouds, Bastions, Undertales and Cupheads - characters that people would love to actually see in Smash, if only their owners had a better relationship with Nintendo.

Want: 1%
The fact that people would honestly choose this character over Crash Bandicoot appalls me. God, people need to stay in school.

Nominations:
Ninten x10

 

[YoshiandToad]

Chance: 3% for either of them
They were heavily requested during the ballot for some reason but neither have the same punch as any of our current third party line up, and with limited space I can't see it.

Want: 0% for either of them.
Okay, in all fairness I quite like Shantae in her game, but I feel like Smash third party slots should MEAN something.

Sonic, Pac-Man, Megaman, Ryu and Cloud are all mega stars and/or defining mascots of their genre. Shantae and Shovel Knight are not. Neither is a household name, neither are big stars and frankly if we were to hold a new ballot I doubt they'd be the top indie picks of today as I suspect Sans would trump them both at this point.

Bayonetta isn't a household name/megastar, but she earnt her place through winning the ballot. Shantae and Shovel Knight had a lot more vocal support during the ballot from what we could see but neither could topple her.

In general I want to keep Indies the hell out of Smash unless owned by Nintendo. I actually quite like Sans, Cuphead and (Just)Monika but frankly if any of them got into Smash I'd be questioning what caused Sakurai to turn down a megastar third party pick like Bomberman to shoehorn one of these niche indies in.

Nominations: Slippy Toad X 5

 

[Lass567]

Shantae

Chance 40%
I would put her higher if she had a newer game come out, and if there were more characters joining. But Shantae has had her past two games release on the switch, not counting the half-genie hero dlc edition, and they're pretty popular. I feel like she'd fit in just well.

Want 100%
Shantae is the character that I want the most. I fell in love with both of the games thanks to the switch's eshop and I think that she'd fit in perfectly as a fighter. I love the games and I think the character would be really fun in smUsh.

Shovel Knight

50%
I put him a bit higher than Shantae because of just how popular his game was. It was released on the Wii U, 3DS, and now the Switch. Shovel Knight is also one of the most popular indie characters and would be a good rep.

Want 60%
I feel like Shovel Knight would be fun, but he's not really at the top of my list. I played through the game and thought it was good, but I feel like he needs another game in the series to really cement himself as a good choice.

 

[Smasher 101]

Indie Day

Shovel Knight Chance: 5%
Shantae Chance: 3%

With limited space and a number of more popular/notable third parties, at this point I highly doubt we'll be getting any indie character. Shovel Knight gets the higher score because I feel he's gotten more attention since his debut. Shantae has been around longer but I'm not convinced it would be enough. Again though, we likely won't get either.

Want for both: 25%

Eh. I like both as characters, but I'm not interested in either as fighters and would prefer a number of third parties. Not really wanting an indie character right now. I wouldn't really hate their inclusions though. And I would like to see them get trophies at least.

Geno prediction: ...25.41%
Dillon prediction: 19.56%

Nominations: Tails x10

 

[Deleted member]

Shantae and Shovel Knight

Chance for both: 1%

Unless one of them did particularly well on the ballot (which I doubt), I don't see either making it in when there are not many newcomers left to reveal.

While Shantae has had a perfectly consistent track record with Nintendo, and 3/4 of her games were at least initially exclusive to Nintendo, I doubt that means anything. Snake and Cloud are both synonymous with Sony. Bayonetta debuted on other consoles before Nintendo saved her series. Pac-Man, Sonic, Mega Man, Ryu, and the rumored Simon Belmont have all had games that either weren't initially on Nintendo (like Mega Man 8 or most of the X series) or skipped Nintendo platforms entirely (like Sonic '06 or Street Fighter V). All those characters, despite not being as loyal to Nintendo as Shantae is, are more popular, iconic, and marketable than she ever was.

Shovel Knight, while trendy and probably more popular than Shantae is, might have made his Japanese debut a bit too late. Maybe Nintendo publishing his game in Japan might lead into a trophy cameo like it supposedly did for Rayman and co. in Smash 4, but I'm not expecting much else from him.

Want: 15% for Shantae, 20% for Shovel Knight

There are other characters, both first and third party, that I'd prefer.

Nomination: Spyro Rerate x10

 

[CometX-ing]

he fact that people would honestly choose this character over Crash Bandicoot appalls me. God, people need to stay in school.

Yeah, how dare people want what they want rather than what is popular.

 

[MrMcNuts]

Shantae
Chance: 0% I don't see it happening cause of her being inside

Want: 0% No attachment and I personally don't understand the bandwagon behind her.

Shovel Knight
Chance: 10% if we get an indie I feel like he's the only viable contender

Want: 80% I love shovel Knight and he actually has a cool design and unique moves

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I am gonna be working on a bunch of calcs, so this day is probs gonna go on a bit longer than most. Just giving a heads up if anyone has not got their votes in.

 

[Wyoming]

Spoiler: Nominations: post Paper Celica, pre-Shantae Knight

Tingle x283
Slippy Toad x281
Lloyd Irving x270
Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner x262
Leon Kennedy x262
Sakura Shinguji x258
Neku Sakaruba x249


Over 200:

Kamek x243
Wonder Red x242
Ryu Hayabusa x230
Linkle x225
Concept: Monster Hunter character x220
Parabo & Satebo x219
Scorpion x211
Tetra x209



199-150

Fawful x199
Thwomp x191
Ray x188
Labo Guy/Robot x185
Balloon Fighter x182
Katrielle Layton x179
DeMille x178
Papyrus x175
Django x175
Primarina x175
Smash Run x175
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x155
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x150
Tsubasa Oribe x150
Fire Emblem Treehouses Protagonist x150
Tails x150

149-100

Dragonite x147
Louie x135
Ayumi Tachibana x132
Barbara x119
Concept: Female Announcer x115
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x114
2B x111
Susie x104
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x103



99-75

Neptune x97
Viewtful Joe x95
Nikki x95
Gooey x94
Rowlet x90
Klonoa x87
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x86
Concept: Pikmin newcomer x85
Tora & Poppi x82
Fjorm x75

74-50


Veronica x73
Viridi x67
Yu Narakumi x66
Breidablik Item x65
Zeraora (Pokémon) x64
Toon Zelda x64
Rick/Coo/Kine x64
Endou Mamoru x62
9-Volt x62
Concept: Historical Character x60
Concept: All-Star Versus x59
Concept: Style Savvy character x57
Slime x56
Concept: Wars character x53
Concept: Hanafuda character x51
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x50

49-26:

Raiden x45
Incineroar x45
Nihilego x40
Chorus Kids x35
Concept: Only 4-6 newcomers for base roster x35
Rhythm Girl x30
Concept: Chun-Li as an assist trophy x30

Under 25:

Concept: More than five unique newcomers x20
Tapu Koko x20
Ninten x18
Reinhardt Gets a Trophy x15
Edelgard x15
Master Chief x10
Concept: Custom Alternate Colors x10
Xenoblade X Avatar/Cross x10
Project Zero/Fatal Frame Protagonist x10
Ken x7
Concept: SR388 stage x5
Alm x5
Nia x5
Medusa x5

Changes:

Leon Kennedy breaks into the top 7, sending Kamek out
Tails breaks 150 noms
Hanafuda breaks 50 noms
New addition: Medusa (x5)
Removed: All-Stages returning (disconfirmed)

The nominations have dried up somewhat. Probably due to rerating a lot and not getting a lot of standouts post E3 I am guessing.

I'm double abstaining, but what little chance Shantae had has only gotten smaller. She's a character that comes to mind that I doubt her online popularity matches that of the public, and with third party additions looking very sparse, if not unlikely, I don't think she has anything to stand out over other big names and even other indies.

Shovel Knight is clinging onto the amiibo very tightly and the release of the toy fits into when the project plan was being drafted up. The timing was definitely on point and seems like a small possibility....but I wouldn't count on it. Based on what Sakurai said on Famitsu recently I could see him sticking with the companies already on board for any future third party addition for Ultimate.

Both are also owned by American companies. Sakurai likes to work directly with developers to get them on point. With the distance and language barrier being an issue, I cannot see how it would be possible unless, for whatever reason, Sakurai really wants one of them to work out in Smash.

Ninten x5
Ken x5

 

[MrElectroG64]

Shantae and Shovel Knight

Chance: 5%
These characters just aren't on the map enough compared to other third parties, and seem to lack a basic awareness overseas (at least Shovel Knight does).

Want: 10%
Shovel Knight would be pretty cool, admittedly, but I'm just not holding my breathe for him. Shantae I really don't care about at all.

Nominations:
Louie x5
Fawful x5

 

[A Distant Demon]

Want Shantae: 0%
her game utterly disappointed me. People were hyping it up as "better than shovel knight" before I played Risy's Revenge. Was not impressed. Dont care for her character or pretty much anything about her to be frank.

Shovel Knight: 70%
I was disappointed about SK the first time too, but Plague Knight's DLC turned my opinion around. Now I think he would be neat. . .plus I know a few people who would be super excited. Loses points for not being plague knight
laguery:

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Bandana Dee
51.83% Chance (Previously 56.64%)
62.02% Chance (Previously 71.11%)

A Decline on both fronts. While still seen as likely and wanted, these scores just don't seem as high. Guess with less spots a character like Dee has less charm.

Elma
45.13% Chance (Previously 42.60%)
47.43% Want (Previously 60.10%)

So...either Elma's fans did not turn out for today, or there is more pessimism towards her now. Could be the later since spots are kinda scarce.

Dixie Kong
64.73% Chance (Previously 57.51%)
65.25% Want (Previously 62.93%)

Noticeable increase due to echo fighter potential. Still seen as quite likely and wanted by the community.


Isaac
20.44% Chance (Previously 17.73%)
59.77% Want (Previously 58.60%)

A noticeable rise, but not by too much. Still seen as unlikely but a popular choice.

Paper Mario

27.02% Chance ( Previously 32.74%)
46.42% Want (Previously 44.52%)

A slight rise in want but a small decrease in chance. Guess slots are scares hurting him,

Celica

13.71% Chance (Previously 37.93%)
43.34% Want ( Previously 37.31%)

A noticeable rise in want but her chance scores wee gutted due to a combo of project plan and less spots.

Shovel Knight
9.59% Chance (Previously 22.88%)
36.41% Want (Previously 45.94% )

Wow. A decline for sure. The love for Nindies has dried up here where competition is fierce.

Shantae
7.31% Chance (Previously 14.71% )
30.89% Chance (Previously 43.94% )

See Shovel Knight.

I will get the remaining scores done tomorrow.

Geno and Dillon are up. After them we got Steve and Chibi Robo. Rate Geno and Dillon and predict Steve and Chibi Robo.

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

Geno
I think he's getting in. He's got tons of things going for him, and Nintendo even mentioned the anniversary of Mario RPG this year by asking fans if they were #TeamGeno or #TeamMallow. I wouldn't be surprised if Mallow shows up in some way. He's got fan demand, and developer help. And Square being involved in Smash takes care of one of his biggest hurdles in the past. I think Nintendo know and recognize the fans of the character. I just wish he could be a regular Mario character and appear in cameos, in sports games, etc.

Being in the game at all of course is going to be 100%. If nothing else they won't get rid of the Mii Costume
But I'm give
Chance: 70%
Want: 100%

Dillon
Dillon is a character that I actually really like. I mean, just look at my sig. I've got 2 characters in it only. He was practically made to be in Smash and I would really like a Western themed character playable. Even if he doesn't have a gun. He's got his new jet things in the new game though which could make interesting moves.
Chance: 25%
Want: 100%

 

[Deleted member]

Abstain on Dillon. I don't have much to say about him, especially when compared to the other character we're rating today...
Geno want: 0%
My opinion on Geno constantly shifts between dislike and neutral, but it has recently hit the lowest point possible.
Geno is a character that, despite checking multiple boxes that would usually make the Smash fanbase say "this character doesn't deserve a slot on the roster!", has gained a large cult following over the years, to the point he's considered one of the most highly requested characters on this website. To elaborate...

• "Waluigi doesn't deserve to be in Smash, he's just a spin-off character!" At least he made more than one appearance and a cameo, unlike Geno... Who is also technically a "spin-off" character.
• "No more Mario characters!" Many people say that but still want Geno.
• "One-off characters don't belong in Smash!" Why is Geno any different?
• "We shouldn't get any new Pokemon because they'd feel outdated by the time the next game comes out!" This one is particularly ironic, because Geno is already outdated. He's a one-off character that hasn't made an appearance in years, and yet the fanbase still loves him.

Personally, I'm the kind of guy who prioritizes moveset over anything, so I don't care about all the fine print that requires a Smash inclusion. And yet, I find myself frustrated with people who care so much about it but still want Geno. It especially irks me that Sakurai achknowledged his popularity directly yet never said a word about characters like Isaac or even the elusive King K. Rool. It frustrates me even more that some people give him the okay but still don't accept Bandana Dee as a character that's worthy of Smash, despite him litearally checking every box.
Finally, I'm an advocate of third-party inclusions, unlike a large part of the fanbase, and there are very few choices that I would really dislike. Recently, I've been seeing many people say that they believe Geno will be the only third-party newcomer, at least in the base game. Regardless of whether their predictions are correct or not. that outcome would be a massive disappointment for me as there are so many good options for third-parties, while Geno is literally just a Nintendo character that they don't own.
I admit that I'm not too familiar with the character as I have yet to play Mario RPG (That's only happening after I get a SNES classic, which isn't happening for a while), so while my opinion could potentially shift in a more positive direction once I play the game, I currently don't want to see Geno in the game at all. Also, if Geno gets anything while Bandana Dee is ignored altogether like in Sm4sh, I'd be livid.

Leon Kennedy x5
Tails x5

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

Abstain on Dillon. I don't have much to say about him, especially when compared to the other character we're rating today...
Geno want: 0%
My opinion on Geno constantly shifts between dislike and neutral, but it has recently hit the lowest point possible.
Geno is a character that, despite checking multiple boxes that would usually make the Smash fanbase say "this character doesn't deserve a slot on the roster!", has gained a large cult following over the years, to the point he's considered one of the most highly requested characters on this website. To elaborate...

• "Waluigi doesn't deserve to be in Smash, he's just a spin-off character!" At least he made more than one appearance and a cameo, unlike Geno... Who is also technically a "spin-off" character.
• "No more Mario characters!" Many people say that but still want Geno.
• "One-off characters don't belong in Smash!" Why is Geno any different?
• "We shouldn't get any new Pokemon because they'd feel outdated by the time the next game comes out!" This one is particularly ironic, because Geno is already outdated. He's a one-off character that hasn't made an appearance in years, and yet the fanbase still loves him.

Personally, I'm the kind of guy who prioritizes moveset over anything, so I don't care about all the fine print that requires a Smash inclusion. And yet, I find myself frustrated with people who care so much about it but still want Geno. It especially irks me that Sakurai achknowledged his popularity directly yet never said a word about characters like Isaac or even the elusive King K. Rool. It frustrates me even more that some people give him the okay but still don't accept Bandana Dee as a character that's worthy of Smash, despite him litearally checking every box.
Finally, I'm an advocate of third-party inclusions, unlike a large part of the fanbase, and there are very few choices that I would really dislike. Recently, I've been seeing many people say that they believe Geno will be the only third-party newcomer, at least in the base game. Regardless of whether their predictions are correct or not. that outcome would be a massive disappointment for me as there are so many good options for third-parties, while Geno is literally just a Nintendo character that they don't own.
I admit that I'm not too familiar with the character as I have yet to play Mario RPG (That's only happening after I get a SNES classic, which isn't happening for a while), so while my opinion could potentially shift in a more positive direction once I play the game, I currently don't want to see Geno in the game at all. Also, if Geno gets anything while Bandana Dee is ignored altogether like in Sm4sh, I'd be livid.

Leon Kennedy x5
Tails x5

Some of us like thinking outside the boxes

 

[Deleted member]

Some of us like thinking outside the boxes

So do I.
But seeing as we're a very small minority, Geno's popularity is really weird in my opinion.