Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Organization XIII]

Geno
Chance 5%
Sakurai has wanted the character in the game and he still hasn't happened yet. Why would now be different?
Want 50%
I like SMRPG and I like Geno but he's not a character I'm really focused on getting in Smash

Dillon
Chance 20%
If this were a normal Smash he would have such a higher chance. Sadly this game's more focused on big-ticket characters and Dillon doesn't have the star power required yet. Maybe next time though.

Want 70%
Dillon has got a design I love and would be an excellent addition.

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

Geno
Chance 5%
Sakurai has wanted the character in the game and he still hasn't happened yet. Why would now be different?
Want 50%
I like SMRPG and I like Geno but he's not a character I'm really focused on getting in Smash

Dillon
Chance 20%
If this were a normal Smash he would have such a higher chance. Sadly this game's more focused on big-ticket characters and Dillon doesn't have the star power required yet. Maybe next time though.

Want 70%
Dillon has got a design I love and would be an excellent addition.

The difference now? They have Square on board. From day 1

They didn't get Square in Smash 4 until DLC

and they didn't have Square for any of the previous games

So do I.
But seeing as we're a very small minority, Geno's popularity is really weird in my opinion.

LOL, really I just wanted to make a pun

 

[Organization XIII]

The difference now? They have Square on board. From day 1

They didn't get Square in Smash 4 until DLC

and they didn't have Square for any of the previous games

He was still just a costume. Even with them being on board day one it doesn't change anything. Geno didn't get his cameo in the Super Star Saga remake, Square has no intentions of letting him be a thing and he won't be in Ultimate. If he was going to be in Smash it would have already happened.

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

He was still just a costume. Even with them being on board day one it doesn't change anything. Geno didn't get his cameo in the Super Star Saga remake, Square has no intentions of letting him be a thing and he won't be in Ultimate. If he was going to be in Smash it would have already happened.

Yeah, but a lot of things didn't happen with the DLC. We didn't get any new highly requested characters at all

Just advertisements, returning veterans, and some third parties.

K Rool just got a costume as well, and he was probably the most requested character on the ballot.

 

[Houndstooth]

Geno

How crazy is it that Sakurai mentioned Geno? And even admitted to wanting him in the past games? It's always good when the Director is on your side. Plus, he actually showed up as a Mii Costume, which, again, is just unreal. He's popular despite being "old." Square is involved earlier this time as well, so he's over that barrier. Just seems like most hurdles from Brawl have been overcome. But limited spaces may hurt his chances. Still, if this is going to be a "fan service" game then a character like Geno is all about fandom getting you in.

Chances 75%

It is so bizarre that Geno has been mentioned in the year 2018. I love the character. As a SNES kid, I always loved SMRPG. It was the first RPG game I played (quickly followed by Chrono Trigger and Pokemon). He was my favorite Mario character who never came back. How I wanted to play as him in Mario Kart or any other sports spinoff. But, alas, that never happened. Anyway, after Sonic was added in Brawl, I jumped on the Geno for Smash wagon. Still here today, and I hope he makes it into the game.

Want 100%

Abstain from Dillon. Sorry, I haven't had a chance to play his game and wouldn't be able to speak about that character very well.

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

Geno

How crazy is it that Sakurai mentioned Geno? And even admitted to wanting him in the past games? It's always good when the Director is on your side. Plus, he actually showed up as a Mii Costume, which, again, is just unreal. He's popular despite being "old." Square is involved earlier this time as well, so he's over that barrier. Just seems like most hurdles from Brawl have been overcome. But limited spaces may hurt his chances. Still, if this is going to be a "fan service" game then a character like Geno is all about fandom getting you in.

Chances 75%

It is so bizarre that Geno has been mentioned in the year 2018. I love the character. As a SNES kid, I always loved SMRPG. It was the first RPG game I played (quickly followed by Chrono Trigger and Pokemon). He was my favorite Mario character who never came back. How I wanted to play as him in Mario Kart or any other sports spinoff. But, alas, that never happened. Anyway, after Sonic was added in Brawl, I jumped on the Geno for Smash wagon. Still here today, and I hope he makes it into the game.

Want 100%

Abstain from Dillon. Sorry, I haven't had a chance to play his game and wouldn't be able to speak about that character very well.

With Dillon, the game is alright but it's more about the character himself. His game is kind of niche and an odd blend of genres. I believe more people would be able to appreciate him as a character though

 

[Houndstooth]

So do I.
But seeing as we're a very small minority, Geno's popularity is really weird in my opinion.

It is crazy how popular he is for smash. But, it is kinda cool to see.

 

[Organization XIII]

Yeah, but a lot of things didn't happen with the DLC. We didn't get any new highly requested characters at all

Just advertisements, returning veterans, and some third parties.

K Rool just got a costume as well, and he was probably the most requested character on the ballot.

What is Geno again?

 

[Deleted member]

It is crazy how popular he is for smash. But, it is kinda cool to see.

I didn't mean that as a good thing.

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

What is Geno again?

He's not the same kind of third party character as Cloud is

Cloud represents a third party series.

Despite ownership, Geno is still a Mario character

 

[Houndstooth]

EDIT: Changed to this.

I didn't mean that as a good thing.

Yeah. I did... lol Was just playing off your statement, that's all.

 

[Organization XIII]

He's not the same kind of third party character as Cloud is

Cloud represents a third party series.

Despite ownership, Geno is still a Mario character

That doesn't matter at all. He still negotiated with Square it was the perfect chance to get Geno in Smash and the best Sakurai could manage was a Mii outfit. Aside from licensing and such, there was nothing stopping Geno from coming along with Cloud but it didn't happen. Again if Geno was ever going to make it, he'd be in by now. Now maybe the stars will align and Geno does make it in this time so I didn't give him a 0 but with Sakurai stating it's hard to work with Square his chances are looking pretty bad.

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

That doesn't matter at all. He still negotiated with Square it was the perfect chance to get Geno in Smash and the best Sakurai could manage was a Mii outfit. Aside from licensing and such, there was nothing stopping Geno from coming along with Cloud but it didn't happen. Again if Geno was ever going to make it, he'd be in by now. Now maybe the stars will align and Geno does make it in this time so I didn't give him a 0 but with Sakurai stating it's hard to work with Square his chances are looking pretty bad.

I don't think the negotiation with Square went "Yeah, you can use Geno but he's restricted to a mii outfit"
Like Square knew what a mii costume even was.

With the focus of previous hard to make characters like Ridley, I see his chances as better than ever

 

[Houndstooth]

That doesn't matter at all. He still negotiated with Square it was the perfect chance to get Geno in Smash and the best Sakurai could manage was a Mii outfit. Aside from licensing and such, there was nothing stopping Geno from coming along with Cloud but it didn't happen. Again if Geno was ever going to make it, he'd be in by now. Now maybe the stars will align and Geno does make it in this time so I didn't give him a 0 but with Sakurai stating it's hard to work with Square his chances are looking pretty bad.

Getting Cloud in was definitely the top priority for Square. We know they discussed Geno, since he does appear as a costume. Maybe it was a time thing for Geno. Get Cloud now, then work on Geno for the next game? Not sure, but things could have held him back then that may not be now.

 

[WaddleMatt]

Geno-Chance: 15% Want: 0%

Honestly, what @Lampy said prior pretty much sums up his chance and want for me. Yes he is requested and yes Sakurai is interested in him but I find it would be unfair to characters like Toad and Waluigi if a one off character was added before him. I would even see Paper Mario and Fawful more likely. Adding one character from one Mario game in the 90's makes no sense to me.

Dillon-Chance: 20% Want: Abstain

Abstaining because I haven't played his games. Dillon may be a newer IP but he really doesn't seem big enough to get in as a character especially with a smaller roster this time. Yet we haven't seen his Assist Trophy so there is a small chance.

Nominations: Rhythm/Tap Trial Girl x5

 

[Organization XIII]

I don't think the negotiation with Square went "Yeah, you can use Geno but he's restricted to a mii outfit"
Like Square knew what a mii costume even was.

With the focus of previous hard to make characters like Ridley, I see his chances as better than ever

Ok um mate I am fine with us disagreeing about his likeness but seriously your argument is Square wouldn't know how a character they own was being used and they wouldn't know about an aspect of the game the character was going in? That's ridiculous.

 

[Souldin]

Geno (Mario series... technically)
Chance: 15%

Geno is popular, Square Enix are involved with SSB through Cloud's inclusion, and he managed to get a costume into SSB. That said, he is also a very old one-time 3rd party owned character who would be representing an already heavily represented series. I feel a lot of factors get in his way, I don't see much of his popularity outside of SSB requests (likely given his one-game appearance as a side character, which only gained a worldwide release through the Wii virtual console and the SNES Mini) nor do I see it being worth arranging him to be the new 3rd party addition when he doesn't even add a new series representation; instead he bolsters the already massively represented Mario series. There are more likely 3rd party additions, more likely popular choices, and even more likely Mario additions.​

​

Want: 3%

Geno has a cool design and plenty of moves to make a fun move-set, but another addition to the Mario series? At that, one very unimportant to the series as a whole who would also be a 3rd party addition. Gosh, Geno compiles so many of the things I don't want in SSB into one package. It also doesn't help that I've yet to experience Super Mario RPG myself; having issues trying to the SNES Mini powered on.​

Dillon (Dillon's Rolling Western)
Chance: 75%

I believe Dillon to be the most likely new series newcomer to be added at this point. Splatoon has just been added and ARMS is both a tad too new and consists of only one game. In Dillon's favour is three games, one recent, and a continuing presence throughout the 3DS. I feel that if we get another series represented in SSBU, as Inkling and Splatoon represents the console side of things for Nintendo, then in turn Dillon and the Dillon's Rolling Western can be representing Nintendo's handheld and 3DS side of their IPs.​

​

Dillon has a neat design, which screams SSB potential, along with options for his move-set and attributes that can make him a very unique addition. He also brings a unique setting and style with his western theme. There aren't many relevant IPs that naturally feel suited to playable spots in Smash, so even if there are plenty of IPs for Nintendo to pool from, it feels like Dillon stands far above his competing series for playable representation in SBB.​

Want: 95%

I love Dillon's Rolling Western. I love the character of Dillon, the tower defence games he hails from, and I look forward to opening up his latest adventure on Christmas day. I love the ideas and potential for this character; a heavy weight character navigating the stage at quicker than expected rates thanks to his rolling techniques; then controlling the arena through the setting up of cannon and turret fitted towers. All of his techniques feel like they'd perfectly transition into smash, yet at the same, feel as if they'd be unique and stand apart from the rest of the roster.​

​

With Ridley's inclusion, and my growing interest in the character and his games, Dillon currently stands as my 2nd most wanted character for SSBU.​

Nominations: x5 Fatal Frame Protagonist
x2 Kamek (Mario) ... who I'd say is incorrectly labelled as a Mario series character here, but that's worth discussing in the rating itself.
x3 Balloon Fighter

 

[Isaac: Venus Adept]

DILLON Chances-39% Dillon from the titular series Dillon's Rolling Western is one of the more standout eshop protagonists aside from Tempo and Mallow and Dillon looks like the character Sakurai can make the best moveset out of imo. If Sakurai is willing to represent this smaller side of Nintendo games then I'm. He just had a game released a month ago which had solid reception. His series isn't all that big though and I rarely see him brought up in wishlists which severely hurts his chances especially in a game with minimal newcomer spots.
Want- 68% Like I previously said he has good moveset potential and he can represent an interesting aspect of Nintendo history. I like his design and I see potential for his series to grow. I just gave this character a splash screen on the Dillon page so he has my support although I wouldn't really be all that mad if he doesn't make it in. I love seeing lesser known Nintendo series get more love so he has my full support

GENO Chances 43% Out of all requested characters I've always found Geno to be in one of the more interesting situations. He was a one time stand out character in Super Mario RPG and that was released all the way back in the SNES era. There is that weird Square ownership although we do have Cloud back and the Mii costume that came out of nowhere. I would've considered him a pipe-dream if it wasn't for the fact that Sakurai himself acknowledged his popularity and support. In the actual Mario series though he's hasn't made a reappearance even in spinoffs like Mario Kart or Mario Sluggers which had so many Mario All Stars. Heck even the Square developed Mario Sports Mix on the Wii didn't have Geno. His only cameo in Mario and Luigi SSS was removed in the remake. He definitely isn't a shoo in like some people think he is though. He needs to have a bigger role in more recent Mario games before he gets that status
Want-30% Personally I feel like we have enough Mario characters for now. Sakurai is a man that can give the reaIly weird characters like Wii Fit Trainer, Duck Hunt or ROB and Captain Falcon iconic movesets so I assume Geno would be fine in that regard and he could be really cool. How ever I do see him as a kind of random suggestion and I feel like characters from already represented franchises need something a bit more than a one time appearance in a twenty year old game to get in. His Mii costume satisfies me enough as it resembles his look really well. I would prefer unrepresented Nintendo IP like Golden Sun/Rhythm Heaven or underrepresented like Donkey Kong to get higher priority in terms of characters.

NOMS-Mike Jones (Startropics)
-Neku (World Ends With You)

 

[Organization XIII]

Getting Cloud in was definitely the top priority for Square. We know they discussed Geno, since he does appear as a costume. Maybe it was a time thing for Geno. Get Cloud now, then work on Geno for the next game? Not sure, but things could have held him back then that may not be now.

Like I said it's not impossible Geno makes it this time but like you said Geno was obviously discussed and even though Sakurai wants him playable a Mii outfit was the best he could manage, it seems highly unlikely that he'll make it if he couldn't make it then. Also, there's another reason I think he is unlikely and it goes into theory territory. Basically, I think the DLC third parties were negotiated for the Switch game at the same time as they were for DLC. The fact that all of them show up in the demo for Ultimate just suggests to me that they were negotiated very early on and with the project plan starting so soon after the ballot ended I think they knew a Switch game was going to happen and were planning way in advance so really if he didn't make it as DLC in 4 it really seems farfetched for him to be in Ultimate. Though again that's just a theory I have so I could be wrong and they were just put in the demo for the hype.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Dillon want: 2% (12-10*)

Would be higher if Sonic weren't in the game.

* Indicates percentage penalty for potentially taking a slot from most wanted characters

Geno want: 0% (5-10*)

I'd be happy for all the people who want him in, and his design is pretty neat.

* Indicates percentage penalty for potentially taking a slot from most wanted characters

 

[Erimir]

Not going to do a rating right now, but the reason why Geno is popular while certain other characters are not, despite checking this box or that or not checking them... is probably something to do with, you know, the game he's from.

I know that for me, personally, I prefer Super Mario RPG to every Kirby game I've played (tbh I liked Canvas Curse but haven't liked other Kirby games when I've tried them). If Geno is so disproportionately popular... it's probably because his game is very well-regarded, and more fondly remembered by the fan base.

Super Mario RPG has a higher score on GameRankings than every single Kirby game. It got really good reviews and reception and sold pretty well. Maybe it seems unfair to you that people like Geno better, but people have different tastes and that's the way it is. But it's not some mystery that's inexplicable that an associated character would be popular/have a passionate fanbase. If Super Mario RPG were widely considered one of the worst Mario games out there, then I'd agree it's a mystery. Even though I wasn't a huge fan of Geno in the game, I loved the game and understand why someone else who did might want Geno in as a result.

 

[Honest Slug]

I think it's kinda baffling how people dismiss Geno as some irrelevant, forgotten one-off Mario character when he represents the beginning of Mario's RPG roots. Super Mario RPG is one of the most important, loved, and influential Mario spin-offs and Geno is the most popular character from it, I don't see how he's that crazy of a request.

I kinda despise relevancy arguments for character inclusion in general. Sure it's important to keep up to date with the newer Nintendo games, but it's also important to celebrate the past and the things people loved back then. I can assure you Geno would be a heck of a lot more memorable of a character than Greninja or Corrin years down the road despite those two being more "relevant" because he's a more important character in the grand scheme of things. Greninja and Corrin were just characters in iterative sequels in which their games came out at the right time to be represented in Smash. Geno represents the beginning of Mario's RPG roots in a particularity acclaimed game. Sure it's fine to have some characters like Greninja but I strongly dislike the idea of every character being chosen with the promotional and relevant mindset.

Not going to rate their chances since I'm always wrong lol. I don't think Dillon has a chance, but I could be wrong.

Geno want is 100%. Super Mario RPG is a treasure.

Dillon Want is 10%. Usually I'd be glad to see him but with limited slots there's other characters I'd rather see.

 

[Zema]

Geno

Chance: 35%
Make no mistake, 35% as a chance is pretty high for any character in this thread. Geno's an odd case, but I think he has a lot going for him this time. First of all, he was incredibly popular in the poll during the Brawl days, and potentially has retained a lot of that popularity since. Sakurai has mentioned wanting to add him before, especially in Brawl, due to his popularity.

Because of that, you added him as a Mii Costume this time?

Sakurai: That’s right. He’s very popular. When talking about older characters, Geno always gets a lot of requests. He didn’t appear as a fighter, but I was able to achieve something kind of close to that as a Mii Costume.

Geno has a few issues going against him: he's only ever truly been in one game and he's owned by Square Enix. I don't see the first issue as something fatal for his inclusion, considering some of the other characters in the game. Square Enix's ownership of Geno is another thing entirely. It used to be a big problem back in the Brawl days, especially since Square Enix and Nintendo's relationship wasn't very good. However, with the inclusion of Cloud into the game, it looks like Square Enix is now willing to play ball with Nintendo, which could translate into the rights to SMRPG characters being easier to acquire for use in the game.

Something else that helps Geno is the fact that every single character is coming back to Smash 5. Combined with the fact that the first plan for the roster was produced in 2015, and the inclusion of Ridley... it's very possible that the list of characters Sakurai wants into Smash has now thinned significantly, and Geno could easily be on that list given his earlier comments. Everything about this game he's making screams fanservice, too, which could be indicative.

With Sakurai admitting he wanted Geno, a Mii Costume, Square Enix willing to cooperate with Nintendo, Cloud already being part of the roster from the get-go, the game revolving around fanservice, a plan for the roster produced in 2015 and every single character coming back... It looks like the stars are aligning for Geno.

Want: 100%
Geno is a character I've wanted since Brawl. I don't know why I like the character so much, since I remember not really caring about him when I first played SMRPG, but for some reason I really love the idea of him getting in Smash. His design is cool, his moveset is full of potential, and he's unlike any other character currently in the game. I'd love to see my dude professionally modelled for a modern game. It would also potentially revitalize this character and give him a new lease on life.

Overall, it would be a great inclusion, especially as a representative of Super Mario RPG, which is one of my most beloved games of all time. Plus, it would mean SMRPG music gets into the game, which is a win for everyone. EDIT: I also like that he isn't a "main character" like most other characters. He wouldn't be a mindless inclusion to help promote an upcoming game, he'd just be a quirky side character from an old game. I think a lot of people who want smaller or lesser known characters in the game should rejoice if Geno gets in, since it means that their characters definitely have a chance if someone like Geno does.

Dillon: Abstain

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Dillon
Chance: 10%
He doesn't fit the timing with the project plan, nor does he seem to be all that popular. Can definitely suffer from being low priority.

Geno
Chance: 60%
He's on Sakurai's radar and Square is already on board. The ballot will also play a huge role in his favor.

Want: 5%
He's a weird one for me.
I've yet to play SMRPG, so when I get to that maybe my views on him will change, but I'll imagine me thinking Geno still not deserving it.
He's a character riding on popularity and nothing else. He's still a party member from two decade old spin-off game, and he has yet to appear in more than one game. (cameo in Super Star Saga barely counts) SMRPG is a highly praised game but so is TTYD. Why am I not seeing support for characters like Flurrie or Vivian, who are almost in the same boat as him? Do they just not share the same ''kewl'' factor as him?
If he gets in I'll understand why, but that doesn't change there are still dozens of characters who (I know some of you guys hate this word) deserve it more than him.

Chibi Robo: 14.59%
Steve: 19.72%

Leon Kennedy x10

 

[Deleted member]

Geno
Chance: 15%
Want: 50%

Dillon
Chance: 25%
Want: abstain


Noms:
Female announcer x5

Steve prediction: 19.81%
Chibi Robo prediction: 18.07%

 

[Zema]

Why am I not seeing support for characters like Flurrie or Vivian, who are almost in the same boat as him? Do they just not share the same ''kewl'' factor as him?

I think the rule of cool is important. There's a reason people prefer the possessed doll with guns over Mallow. I love Mallow and I think he could make a really cool character in Smash, but the poor guy doesn't stand a chance when compared to Geno.

 

[UberMadman]

Geno

Chance: 45%

Geno actually has a decent shot this time around, at least in my eyes. Square is on board from the beginning, and we found out Sakurai wanted him back in the Brawl era and was still thinking of him during Smash 4. He also has tons of moveset potential and is hugely popular. However, he does have obscurity issues, so Sakurai might want to prioritize more relevant characters. Additionally, juat because Square Enix chose to allow him to be used as a Mii Fighter costume doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll allow him to be used as a fighter. It can sometimes be hard to tell with larger companies what they will approve or deny.

Want: 85%

I’ve only played limited amounts of Super Mario RPG myself, funny enough, but holy **** do I love Geno. He has a great, standout character design and concept that would be super fresh to have in Smash, and quite frankly, I think a lot of younger Smash fans who wouldn’t know about Super Mario RPG would fall in love with him regardless.

Dillon

Chance: 20%

Dillon is technically a first-party Nintendo character with an established franchise at this point, but with the limited amount of roster space alloted for unique newcomers this time around, I don’t think his chances are very high. I think he’s too low-profile and not quite popular enough for him to be included as anything other than an Assist Trophy, at least for the base roster.

Want: 30%

While he’s far from my first pick, I’ve always admired Dillon’s character design, and think he’d be a fun inclusion. Not so much a character I’m rooting for, but I have no objections to him getting in.

Nomination: Shadow the Hedgehog x10

 

[ShinyRegice]

Geno chances: 20.16%
What I wrote for his day:

He's a supporting character from a single game from decades ago who has been barely reused ever since and is third-party owned, so honestly giving him a decent-ish chance score seems kind of surreal to me. But we now know that Sakurai had the character in mind as a contender, which means the "vocal minority" argument can't be used to completely dismiss him at least. Being the representative of a game with a quite notable legacy alongside unique moveset potential might make him an interesting candidate from Sakurai's perspective. It helps that Super Mario RPG was released worldwide on Wii U about the same time as Sakurai likely decided the roster; I would like to say the SNES Mini boosts his chances but in reality it was probably too late to have an influence on Geno's chances.

However, Geno's merits might not be enough to overcome his major problems I described in the first line of the paragraph above. Those will likely cause Geno to be considered, but quickly denied a place in the roster. The reason why I think he has the possibility to overcome this is the Mii costume, as it will probably be a way for Sakurai to gauge his popularity: if it sold considerably better than most other Mii costumes, then it might be interpreted by Sakurai as a sign that he should give him higher priority to be included in the playable roster, possibly enough to actually make it. We however aren't going to get him over Cloud, and how barebones the Final Fantasy content is in Smash 4 DLC might be a reason to worry about his potential return. There's also competition with other Square Enix characters, such as the prospect of getting another FF character or one from another IP such as Chrono Trigger.

What had changed for him? Well, more than many other characters. His biggest potential obstacle, being Cloud's absence, has been disconfirmed, so I increased Geno's chances estimating the chances I would have given to Cloud prior to E3 at 60%, and slightly lowered the score because we know that the plans for Ultimate were decided at the end of 2015 which was before SMRPG got released on the Wii U's virtual console.

Geno want: 20%
What I wrote for his day:

Sounds like kind of cool, but I have zero nostalgia towards Super Mario RPG. Due to better familiarity, I'd personally go towards Paper Mario to represent a Mario RPG spin-off series.

I don't have anything to add.

Dillon chances: 5%
What I wrote for his day:

Seems very unlikely to be prioritized to me, the last game seems too recent to have much of an impact. I imagine it will remain as an Assist Trophy.

I slightly increased his score since he has survivedUltimate's version of the Assist Trophy massacre until now, but I still don't believe he's particularly likely.

Dillon want: 15%
What I wrote for his day:

Whatever, I don't have much to say asides that I don't care very much.

Steve prediction: 17.20%
Chibi-Robo prediction: 19.57%

Nominating:
Returning game mode: Smash Run x10

 

[EricTheGamerman]

Oh boy Geno's in the thread today, this is sure to be all over the place and I'll only add to that because I do love Geno and want him in Smash.

The fact is Geno exists in a very odd place technically speaking in terms of rights and as a character. I see him as very much along the lines of Bayonetta. Yeah, his rights may be owned by Square, but he's only been in Nintendo related content. I know the term second party character isn't technically correct, but that's where I think he falls into alongside Bayonetta in my own sort of classification. He's too interwoven with Nintendo to just be like any other third party character when the only thing making him one is the rights to the character. At the same time, he's not really a Mario character either. He more represents Super Mario RPG as a whole and as a unique entity. A representation of a classic Nintendo game... kind of like lots of other stuff in Smash.

As for his popularity, he was a very important and unique character to Super Mario RPG, a game beloved by many and still the favorite Mario RPG of many as well. It certainly is mine despite the phenomenal Paper Mario games that came after. He's the spirit of a warrior inhabiting a wooden doll's body that has a gun and has mystical abilities essentially. You can't tell me that's not at the very least a cool concept for a character, and something that has lots of potential for a move set in Smash. Super Mario RPG also stands as many people's first RPG experience and they have fond memories of it as the introduction to the genre. Beyond that, to this day Super Mario RPG is one of the big RPGs of the SNES. For these reasons, Geno has endeared himself in the hearts of many fans and I'm sure that's what his popularity as a fan favorite idea in Smash has come from.

Super Mario RPG releasing on the Virtual Console was a big deal a few years back because lots of people got to play it for the first time who never had the chance since the cart used to go for so much. With the inclusion of the game on the SNES Classic, I'm sure he has been introduced to new people who had only heard of him, and they've become supporters through that. I very much came to support Geno after playing through and adoring Super Mario RPG on my Wii and loving the game, and his character.

With Smash 4, I think Sakurai got into talks with Square, and I'm sure they would have preferred to have their poster boy in the game before allowing the rights to another character. His recent interview mentions that he's held to contracts with third parties and they dictate terms, so it's entirely possible he could have approached them about Geno and been countered with Cloud. At that point in Smash 4's development cycle things were winding down, so I doubt he had much room to work with in terms of additional characters. With him looking forward to Smash Ultimate, it's entirely possible he also decided to save characters that were highly requested for that game instead.

Now, Square-Enix is on board from the beginning. Cloud's already in with his stage. Square likely doesn't care about Geno at all, so I doubt they would mind giving Sakurai the chance to work on a full character, especially when they let him create a Mii costume. Add that to his comments that he's wanted to make Geno a character for the past two games and Geno starts to look a little more likely. Especially when he is a highly fan requested character that is realizable with an interesting move set, in the new Smash game which is extremely geared towards fans. This situation doesn't make him a sure thing by any means, but does mean his chances are better than ever. Just my two cents on the whole area of Geno in Smash.

My Actual Ratings:

Chance: 65%
Want: 100% He is my second most desired newcomer after King K. Rool after all.

Dillion

Seems like one of Nintendo's up and coming characters with a few games under his belt, a decent amount of support, and previous representation as an assist trophy in Smash. He's not a huge deal I don't believe, but I think he's a possible candidate for Smash Ultimate for sure.

Chance: 50%

Want: 50% Nothing wrong with him, and his move set could easily win me over. I think he'd be a neat addition to Smash, he's just further down my list of wanted newcomers.

 

[Cosmic77]

Geno

Chance: 5%
Y'all are overrating Geno so much that it hurts. Seriously, we've seen absolutely nothing that specifically indicates that Geno is any more likely than he was in Smash 4.

"But Cosmic, look at all the popular newcomers! Obviously Sakurai is going with all the fan favorites this time!"

Yes, and do you know what else each of these newcomers have? Relevancy. You can grunt and complain about this argument all you want, but it holds weight. Geno might be popular, but he's not the only popular character requested for Smash. Frankly, just about any popular character we have right now would be more recognizable than this wooden doll who would only appeal to nostalgia. I honestly don't see any scenario where Geno gets prioritized over the other characters, regardless of whether or not SE is on board.

Want: 0%
Sorry to his supporters, but this is a character I'll never understand. I played SMRPG when I was a kid, played with this dude, and thought he was okay. Did I ever feel like he was noteworthy or unique enough to get in Smash? No, not really.

Dillon

Chance: 15%
Dillon had the potential, but he doesn't strike me as a character who would get in Smash. His series feels a little too small for me to think he's a likely candidate.

Want: 50%
Wouldn't care either way, but I like his design.

 

[NintenRob]

I think @Lampy summed it up pretty well for Geno

Chance 0.2% want 0%
I'll admit, he has a chance, a small tiny chance. But one none the less. However, he's still a third party side character from one game from over 20 years ago. He's still a from a franchise that could come up with a 100+ roster of excellent characters and still leave him off, he's from a company with iconic juggernaut Lara Croft and beloved franchise Dragon quest. Even as far as SNES RPG games, they also made Crono Trigger, Secret of Mana and Final Fantasy 6. Crono Trigger and Final Fantasy especially I see get way more love.

All he has going for him is popularity. And don't bring up "Sakurai wants him" Sakurai wants lots of characters, that still didn't help Takamaru who this place was pretty convinced was happening. Not to mention he seemed perfectly satisfied with his Mii Costume "it's a perfect match"

In fact, there's one character who has Geno beat in pretty much every single category. Waluigi. He's popular not just with Smash fans (as seen by the outcry over his deconfirmation) but Mario fans in general. And he actually shows up in games often. So basically

Why would Geno be playable instead of Captain Toad
Why would Geno be playable instead of Lara Croft
Why would Geno be playable instead of Crono
Why would Geno be playable instead of King Boo
Why would Geno be playable instead of Kamek
Why would Geno be playable instead of Terra
Why would Geno be playable instead of Erdrick
Why would Geno be playable instead of Fawful
Why would Geno be playable instead of Paper Mario

You get my point? He has way too much competition. And that's not even going into how protective Square Enid is of their ips and how little they care about the character. They didn't even bring him back when they made their own Mario sport games afterwards.


The way I see it, the most his popularity will get him is the return of his Mii Costume and maybe an assist trophy.

Speaking of
Dillon
Chance 10%
Space is limited and his franchise is still kinda small but I guess it's possible.
Want: 20%
Eh, I've heard worse ideas that's for sure (see above)

Prediction
Steve 20%
Chibi Robo 19%

Nominate Parabo and Satebo x5

 

[Nimbostratus]

Geno
Chance- 48%
Being directly mentioned by Sakurai as being popular is a very, very good thing. So was Ridley, and Geno didn't even have a reason given for why he couldn't be playable. He got a Mii costume last time. Square is on board from the start, so getting the ducks in a row will be easy. This looks to be a fanservice game, and Geno seems to have done well on the ballot. Geno's support isn't what it was during Brawl's days, but the past few years of decline won't affect his standing in the project plan. I consider him among the more likely characters. Holding him back is that he is pretty darn irrelevant and that there are other third-party characters that would appeal to a wider audience.

Want- 0%
Thinking he's likely doesn't mean I want him. I don't dislike Geno- his character concept is fairly interesting. But like many others who joined speculation post-Brawl, the intensity of his popularity has baffled me. There are other Mario party characters I want more (like Captain Toad and Waluigi) and there are other Square reps I would want more (like Crono). I'm usually not someone to care much about relevancy (I mean, K. Rool, Isaac, and an Advance Wars rep are among my most wanted), but even Geno is stretching it for me. If you are from a series like Mario, you ought to be a Nintendo all-star, and I don't consider Geno that. Maybe get us a SMRPG stage and a Geno assist trophy and that would be adequate representation for me.
I wouldn't normally rate him this low, but if we are going to get specifically going to get characters based on popularity alone, it would be pretty disappointing for Geno to be picked out as I much prefer the characters around him of similar popularity.

Dillon
Chance- 18%
The good news since last time is that he survived the AT massacre. Unfortunately, with limited newcomers, I don't see him being prioritized. People seem to like Dillon fine, but I don't get the impression that his ballot or series sales performances made enough of a splash. His new game may be too recent to have any influence. It's still possible, but I don't see it as particularly likely, either.

Want- 100%
I love Dillon's design, and his series would bring in a cool new aesthetic not currently represented in Smash that would fit in well. I'm usually up for unrepped series.

 

[Quetzal77]

Geno
Chance: abstain / Want: 50%
I find it hard to rate Geno this time. Cloud is back, Square Enix has publicly spoken of wanting to bring more games to the Switch, they have several big games on the system already, and Sakurai has acknowledged Geno's popularity. I think his chances have gone way up since he fits the fan-pleasing surprise like Ridley and SE and Nintendo are friendly. His main competition is Sora (who's unlikely) and another FF character (I'd love Terra), or maybe a DQ character. I can't put a number on his chances but I'd say he's very likely.

Dillon
Chance: 3% / Want: 0%
If Takamaru, Lyn, and Waluigi didn't make the jump to playable I just can't imagine Dillon doing it. I have no connection to him so that's fine by me.

Nominations: Neku x 5
edit: just saw the noms list and of Neku is safe then change my noms to Medusa x 5 please

 

[Deleted member]

Geno

Chance: 20%

It's hard to rate this given Sakurai's relatively new commentary after he got a Mii costume, but I may be alone so far in thinking that hurts Geno's chances. I don't see why Sakurai would bring up the character when he was just about to start a new game if he planned to bring him to the new game as playable. K. Rool wasn't talked about, and I think that's because Sakurai had the king in mind for Smash Ultimate, he didn't want to talk about a newcomer before his debut. Geno's appears to be a consolation prize to his fans and Sakurai's comments are conciliatory, as if Sakurai knows Geno isn't going to make it into the game.

Besides that extremely relevant information, nothing has changed for Geno since his game and a few cameos. He's in an awkward spot of being in a Nintendo game and technically owned by Square-Enix. His game series itself is in a special hell where it has no tangible connection to either Paper Mario or Mario & Luigi, the two long-running Mario RPG series. It has a closer link to M&L and yet, SMRPG barely resembles M&L. Geno's not really that important in SMRPG, his one game.

The only reason I'm rating him this high is because I may be wrong on the nature of Sakurai's comments. Read in the most optimistic way for Geno, Sakurai still decided to axe him not once, but twice.

Want: 2%

The set may end up being fun to play is all I can say that's positive. There's many other deserving RPG reps, Fawful for example, who are completely overlooked compared to Geno. I never played SMRPG and maybe I will some day, I have seen plenty of the game. Geno is not a great character and barely seems to be a factor in the plot...? I don't understand why he's the one character who took off out of the decently large cast in SMRPG. It just seems random. You could pick any of Smithy's gang out of a hat and it'd be an improvement.

Mostly Geno would just be bizarre if Sakurai left out Waluigi as a Mario character and Fawful as a RPG character. If you want a Paper Mario character there's plenty of those too that would be cooler or even relevant by comparison. Geno's popularity is one of the stranger fandoms to come out of the speculation scene and I never quite understood why it exists.

Abstain on Dillon

Fawful x10

 

[skylanders fan]

Geno
chance
well they already talked to square and he got a costume in Smash 4 DLC so he is known and must have done decent on the Ballot I think he has a decent chance and moveset
60%

want
all for fan favortie newcomers and a fun new moveset just want a few others more
85%

Dillion
chance
new guy and well I don't thinkn he will make this go around looks to be fan favorites an d well he wasn't requested as much as others on here
30%

want Abstaing

any idea when we go back to single charcters not the biggest fan of multiple charcters days

predicting
steve at 25%
chibi robo at 10%

nominating
Incenoroar x5
labo man x5

 

[Cosmic77]

Geno

Chance: 10%

It's hard to rate this given Sakurai's relatively new commentary after he got a Mii costume, but I may be alone so far in thinking that hurts Geno's chances. I don't see why Sakurai would bring up the character when he was just about to start a new game if he planned to bring him to the new game as playable. K. Rool wasn't talked about, and I think that's because Sakurai had the king in mind for Smash Ultimate, he didn't want to talk about a newcomer before his debut. Geno's appears to be a consolation prize to his fans and Sakurai's comments are conciliatory, as if Sakurai knows Geno isn't going to make it into the game.

Besides that extremely relevant information, nothing has changed for Geno since his game and a few cameos. He's in an awkward spot of being in a Nintendo game and technically owned by Square-Enix. His game series itself is in a special hell where it has no tangible connection to either Paper Mario or Mario & Luigi, the two long-running Mario RPG series. It has a closer link to M&L and yet, SMRPG barely resembles M&L. Geno's not really that important in SMRPG, his one game.

The only reason I'm rating him this high is because I may be wrong on the nature of Sakurai's comments. Read in the most optimistic way for Geno, Sakurai still decided to axe him not once, but twice.

Want: 2%

The set may end up being fun to play is all I can say that's positive. There's many other deserving RPG reps, Fawful for example, who are completely overlooked compared to Geno. I never played SMRPG and maybe I will some day, I have seen plenty of the game. Geno is not a great character and barely seems to be a factor in the plot...? I don't understand why he's the one character who took off out of the decently large cast in SMRPG. It just seems random. You could pick any of Smithy's gang out of a hat and it'd be an improvement.

Mostly Geno would just be bizarre if Sakurai left out Waluigi as a Mario character and Fawful as a RPG character. If you want a Paper Mario character there's plenty of those too that would be cooler or even relevant by comparison. Geno's popularity is one of the stranger fandoms to come out of the speculation scene and I never quite understood why it exists.

Abstain on Dillon

Fawful x5

Geno technically has a major role in the game, as he's directly tied to the game's main objective of collecting the seven stars. However, once you abruptly get him in your party, he doesn't really do anything until the very end of the game.

Personally, I'd argue Mallow was more important to SMRPG. He's the first partner you get, and the story puts a major focus on him at two different parts of the game - one at the beginning, and one close to the end.

 

[Wyoming]

"His popularity is baffling" can be answered easily. Super Mario RPG was a major game at the time. It was the first Mario RPG and the first Mario game with an in-depth story. And Geno happens to steal the show with his design, concept, and story for the bulk of the players who ventured into Legend of the Seven Stars.

Mario may have been the main character, but Geno was the man in that game. He nearly has the whole of Mario RPG with him...and that's a lot of dedicated fans to have on your side. Mallow is the other character from that game and he is completely overshadowed by his doll companion.

Nintendo also had more people playing their games in the NES and SNES era, so exposure and desire for older characters in Smash will be stronger there for the older generation, including gamers that aren't too into Nintendo anymore but still might want the game if it meets their standards. That's why Nintendo's a nostalgia behemoth when it wants to be since that's when they peaked.

Geno benefits from that.

So add in the fact he comes from a cherished game with a legacy and he creams everyone else in popularity from it, it's no wonder he got a big following. Brawl speculation was essentially what made people talk about and remember Geno again - and that's how he got attention from the public despite being old news.

His chances are a bit wonky to me. He has the numbers according to Sakurai, but whether or not everyone wants to add a one-off character is up in the air. Square would surely want someone more...relevant as a 2nd character. Geno would be a people pleaser in Smash, but they wouldn't gain anything from it.

I personally do not care much for him, but seeing him after Ridley would basically close the book on Brawl speculation, and - I must say - that's pretty neat!

Dillon I think won't make it. Digital download only series when the plan was drafted and not insanely popular. It depends if Sakurai wants to make a moveset out of him more than anything.

Ninten x2
Ken x3

 

[EarlTamm]

Geno
Chance: 70%
I would pretty much agree with the others on how he is popular, Sakurai mentioned him, he got a costume(That also was the only costume that got a newcomer styled splash screen, may I add), Nintendo celebrating the game's 22nd anniversary, and Ultimate's seeming more fanservicy in approach.
Want: 100%
Definitely my most wanted newcomer.

Dillon
Chance and want:Abstain
I know very little of him or his games. I don't think he is very likely, but I don't have enough info to make a reasonable estimate.

 

[Deleted member]

Geno technically has a major role in the game, as he's directly tied to the game's main objective of collecting the seven stars. However, once you abruptly get him in your party, he doesn't really do anything until the very end of the game.

Personally, I'd argue Mallow was more important to SMRPG. He's the first partner you get, and the story puts a major focus on him at two different parts of the game - one at the beginning, and one close to the end.

Yeah, from what I can tell Geno is similar to Yuffie or Kimahri, an incidental party member who joins up and then has a limited/no impact on the plot. It's not uncommon for these to get popular but it'd be an exceptionally out there newcomer choice.

 

[kiteinthesky]

♡♪!? AKA Geno!

Chance: 90%

The obstacles blocking Geno's way to the roster have been cleared. Square and Nintendo are buddies again. The stars have aligned, and it is time for our video game demigod to return from the heavens to stomp heads and take names. GENO F'THAGN! R'LYEAH! R'LYEAH!

In all seriousness, the way really does look paved for Geno to get put on the roster this time. Sakurai's statements and Square's cooperation so far are the biggest clues -- plus the Geno fans who argued that the character has had a silent majority that was demoralized until the right circumstances were not really wrong; the Geno thread here for example finally woke up after a long sleep, and it really does look like this is the time to see him on the roster. Either this or Smash 6 -- it's now or never for him.

Clearly the higher-ups don't see him as just a meaningless one-off character who is nothing more than a relic of a forgotten past (like Ice Climbers, Game & Watch, the Duck Hunt dog, even arguably Ness and Captain Falcon) given the Mii costume (and the fact that it was the only Mii costume to get an intro) -- if the Inklings can ascend to the roster from costume status then so can Geno (and probably K. Rool too).

Want: 100%

Look at my avatar for five seconds.


I will abstain from voting on Dillon as I know nothing of the character other than the fact that he's an AT.