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Chance: 15% - Top 3 most likely 3rd Party newcomers, I'd say. Ubisoft clearly has a close working relationship with Nintendo. Mario + Rabbids is getting a sequel with Donkey Kong, Star Fox is crossing over into their new StarLink IP, and don't forget that Rayman had his own trophy back in Smash 4. I wouldn't be surprised to see him, although I think Geno and Simon Belmont are a bit more likely.
Want: 1% - I'm not a fan of adding more 3rd Parties to the roster, but I'd look the other way for Rayman. Only reason why is because Ubisoft brought Star Fox into StarLink, which is hopefully a good sign for the series. As a token of my appreciation for that, I wouldn't mind it if Rayman made it in, but at the same time, I wouldn't care if he didn't.
Crash Bandicoot
Chance: 1% - I do not see Crash appearing on the main roster at this point. The new Crash titles for Switch were probably too far off for Sakurai to consider him in the Smash Ultimate plan. That, and I don't see Crash being a high profile 3rd Party for Sakurai to pursue.
Want: 0% - I'm not a fan of adding more 3rd Parties to the roster, not do I have any interest or attachment to Crash Bandicoot.
Rayman
Chance - 60%
It's hard to guess third parties. I don't like it. All the Ubisoft and Nintendo bromance. As he's on my actual prediction roster I'd put him higher but the whole 3rd party aspect complicates things.
Want - 0%
Booooorrrrring design.
Crash - 1%
Why do people think he's likely? Just because of a Crash game coming to the Switch? I personally don't get why Crash...
I've stated in the past that I never thought he was a big deal video game character, but tons of people have said that he was in their childhoods. Eh.
Want - 0%
Ugly. Can you tell I don't particularly like most third party character suggestions?
Crash want: 80%
Rayman want: 75%
Two of my most wanted third-parties. Unfortunately, Decidueye syndrome applies here as well
Rayman also doesn't excite me that much these days, probably because it's been a while since I've played his games. I mostly want him because he's my friend's most wanted.
A third party I have no attachment to in the slightest...Nothing that interests me. I even knew about Bayonetta as a character. Rayman...literally who?
I think most of the hype for Rayman comes from two sources: the 'leak' last game, and the trophy in game. I think the trophy was odd, since there was really no reference to the game elsewhere (e.g. a stage), which made it unique as a 3rd party trophy went (but does open the door for 3rd party trophies now, which I do think is cool). Still, I've never heard about the series until I saw it.
There was definitely a lot of hype generated from the fake leak, but no more than is generated for fake leaks of other characters. That one make such an impact because it was well done and believable in the first place.
Doesn't Rayman have the same series as the Rabbids? And the Rabbids made a game with Mario et al, but was Rayman out of that? Would the Rabbids be more appropriate? Or am I way off base here? Like I said, I don't think he's as pervasive a character as people expect.
Never really knew Crash as a kid. Of course I knew Mario and Sonic, but I didn’t really get much exposure to Crash, and I’ve really never had a PlayStation.
At least I’ve heard the name, which puts him above other 3rd parties.
I do know Crash is one of the major names bandied about in terms of a third party, but he really just doesn’t resonate with me as much as i.e. Megaman, even though I never played his games either.
Prediction for Lyn: 23.2% Nom: Mewtwo x5, something from Skyrim x5.
Honestly, my feelings haven't changed much on either, but I don't know why I gave them different scores. So for both, I'll stick with Chance: 15% Want: 0%
Nom: Smash Run x5
PS - Look what I found when I was looking up Crash's score from last time...
Chance: 50%
As far as 3rd party characters go, he's pretty like, IMO. Ubisoft and Nintendo are pretty close now. I think he may be more of a DLC character if anything. My one worry is that the Rabbids will get in before him.
Want: 100%
One of my favorite video game series and characters of all time. Rayman 2 was one of my first games, so a lot of nostalgia.
Crash
Chance: 10%
I just see him as more of a Sony mascot. Plus, would he really get in without Spyro? They seem like a packaged, and 2 Activision reps seems like a bit much. And anyway, it may be too late for Crash (N. Sane Trilogy is just coming to the Switch) or other 3rd Party characters may just beat him out (Simon Belmont, Geno, etc.)
Want: 75%
I love Crash. Another favorite from childhood. I think he'd bring a lot to the game, and I'd definitely play him a lot. Probably one of the few 3rd Parties I'd want in - the only other ones really being Rayman, Banjo, and Spyro (and maybe Shovel Knight).
As big of an icon as Crash was in the '90s and arguably is now, this might be a bit generous. Regardless of whether or not the Switch port helps, Crash's big revival wasn't even announced until after Sakurai's project plan in late 2015, and I doubt he knew about a western third party game prior to its announcement. It doesn't help that, back then, Crash hadn't starred in a globally-released game in nearly a decade.
Unless he had a huge following on the ballot (which I doubt), I don't see him joining the base roster. Considering all the support he has now, he has a better chance of being DLC.
Well; the only scenario where I would see Young Link returning was the "Everybody returns", but I was even doubting that because... how different would be Adult Link to make Young Link worth the effort?... Well... That happened.
__________________________________________
It's time for the fast scores.
Rayman:
Chance: 35%
At least we know he is Sakurai's mind already; and it's a iconic figure of a company that had worked with Nintendo before; specially this year.
Want: 50%
I'm okay with this; nothing special to say.
---
Crash the Bandicoot
Chance: 5%
Crash will need DLC; because the project plan doesn't benefit him in any particular way.
Want: 80%
I like this character and I really like his games.
Chance: 30%
Probably the most likely (or at least one of) western third party character. He's the mascot of one of the biggest publishers and developers in the game industry, his games have been received great to critical acclaim, Ubisoft and Nintendo are getting pretty close (I'm sure Sakurai at least knew a bit about Mario+ Rabbids before release), and while he's not as big as the likes of Pac-Man or Sonic, he's still a fairly popular character both in terms of the Smash fanbase and gaming as a whole. He's even already represented in the Smash series, with not just one, but three trophies, so he's already got his foot in the door.
That said, Smash is a primarily represented with Japanese game characters, Diddy Kong being the one exception (a Nintendo owned expectation). Rayman and Ubisoft originate from France, and Rayman himself isn't exactly a popular character in Japan. However, with Sakurai saying he added Ridley due to fan demand specifically from the west (and I assume the Ballot played a part in this as well), perhaps we'll see a couple more bones thrown to western fans.
Want: 100%
Rayman is my most character in Super Smash Bros. Ultimate. The Rayman series is my third favorite gaming franchise of all time (Sonic and Mario are first and second respectively). The whole Rayman series is an absolute joy from beginning to end. It would be a big dream for me to see Sonic, Mario, and Rayman fight with or against each other. Plus, Rayman's inclusion could solidify him as a gaming icon, though that's just a minor to me anyway, I'd still love him whether or not he made.
Crash Bandicoot:
Chance: 15%
Crash Bandicoot is an icon, plain and simple. Back in the PS1 days, Crash was up there with the likes of Mario and Sonic. Crash Bandicoot was even pretty popular in Japan back in the day, they made the famous Crash dance. I would say he's history as a PlayStation icon could prevent his inclusion, but we got Cloud from FF7, a PS1 game, so anything is possible. However, during the time of Smash Ultimate's project plans being finished, the Crash series was still in hiatus. The N-Sane Trilogy was in development, but it wasn't revealed to be a thing until E3 2016. So Crash might of missed the mark by a hair.
Want: 65%
I like Crash Bandicoot and wouldn't mind his inclusion in Smash, he hits just about every checkbox. However, and I fully realize this is incredibly petty, as a big fan of PlayStation All-Stars: Battle Royale (don't judge me), there's a part me of that doesn't want to see him Smash because it will destroy any chance of PlayStation All-Stars getting a sequel. Still, it's something I would get over.
I don't think either has a good chance and I don't really want either of them. I used to want Rayman, but Ubisoft abandoning Nintendo left a bitter taste for caring about the characters inclusion in Smash
Rayman Chance: 33%
Rayman's got the best likelihood of all 3rd party companies not already in Smash. He's the 1st ever to get referenced with trophies, has a moveset in Origins and Legends that was basically "If SSB was a Platformer", Ubisoft and Nintendo have been on VERY good terms since the Wii, and Smashified's hoax (not leak, hoax. A leak is real but revealed too soon) turned heads around the world and made people seriously consider him. With the relationship the 2 companies have, Ubisoft content is very likely; the only drawback is Rayman's literally despised enemies, the Rabbids have a very good shot of showing up, but what capacity is a mystery. Rayman's also been dormant; besides a Switch port, his last main game was 5 years back.
Want: 99%
Make no mistake when I say Rayman is literally my 5th favorite video game character of all time. His limblessness blew my mind as a kid; not only did he launch his fists long distances, he also dislodged his torso to use it as a basketball and soccer ball, has hair that can slice through ropes as thick as his torso, fire spheres of light, fly using his hair, AND has a volatile bloodlust despite his silly appearance. We get him, K. Rool, Dixie and Crash and I'll never want a newcomer again!
Crash Chance: 20%
Crash had one of the WORST lifespans in gaming for someone as beloved as him. He was a phenomenon; one of the pillars of PSX and Sony/Naughty Dog/Universal's first success stories. Even Japan loved him, which was UNHEARD of back then. Miyamoto even offered to HIRE NAUGHTY DOG ON THE SPOT when he played Crash at its E3 debut. Then he dropped out of fame hard and only reemerged recently. Gamers from the 90s remember him well, and he was once an icon; with him in Activision's hands he has decent chances to appear as the company is...alright with Nintendo. However the timing is off and while he'd be welcomed worldwide, Sakurai may have finalized the roster before negotiations could be made.
Want: 100%
Remember what I said about Rayman? Well Crash is my NUMBER ONE FAVORITE VIDEO GAME CHARACTER EVER. Ahead of Diddy and Mario. It's an excellent way to spite Sony (I love Sony BTW but this would be priceless) and celebrate gaming history with so many juggernauts in one game.
Rayman Chance: 80%
Likeliest third party besides Simon IMO. Nintendo and Ubisoft have been on very good terms recently. (Mario+Rabbids, Starfox in Starlink, Miyamoto and Guillemot being buds, Nintendo publishing Rayman Legends on the Wii U in Japan, Nintendo only following Ubisoft on Twitch) He was significant enough to get three trophies in Smash Wii U and I could also imagine him doing decently well in the ballot in the west. Moveset could also be very easy to make, his attacks in Origins/Legends just seem to be made for Smash Bros.
Crash Chance: 65%
Used to be a gaming icon. Him mainly being known as a Playstation mascot won't hold him back with Cloud and Snake being in the game and he has plenty of games on Nintendo systems with soon the original three games remastered also coming.
When the N.sane trilogy releases on Switch won't Crash have mathematically more games on Nintendo systems than on Sony ones?
Rayman (Rayman series)
Chance: 43%
I do not normally rate 3rd party characters as very likely, but given Ubisoft's close relationship both early on with the Wii U and as of late, I honestly feel Rayman is the most likely 3rd party character. He's a child friendly platforming icon with great potential for unique mechanics and moves, has had quite a few appearances on Nintendo systems, and of course the Rabbid spin-off series has crossed over with Mario. There was also the trophy in SSB4, and I feel that hoax regarding Rayman in SSB4 brought him to a lot of folk's attention, possibly even many of those working on SSBU.
Want: 15%
I am not a fan of 3rd party inclusions, even less so the sheer amount of them in SSB and their recurring nature (I originally referred to them as guest fighters, but guest fighters don't keep on coming back). That said, credit where credit is due, I feel Rayman to be one of the more reasonable choices. I'd prefer him not to be added, but if we are getting a 3rd party newcomer (which I feel is likely), I would admittedly prefer Rayman over several other choices... I still to this day adore Rayman 2.
Crash Bandicoot (Crash Bandicoot series)
Chance: 12%
The rumoured planning stage for SSBU being end of 2015 really hit Crash's chances hard; he was a dormant IP back then. His chances of getting in solely rely on his legacy; being the equivalent of Sonic versus Mario for the Gen 5 era of gamers. That, and he's fairly well suited to smash with a decent repertoire and plenty of charm; I hear he was even quite popular in Japan.
Want: 8%
Again, don't like 3rd party inclusions, but having Mario, Sonic and Crash in one game would be mind-blowing! That said, he would be far better suited to being included in a PlayStation All-Stars Battle Royale 2... if that had more than a minuscule chance of happening
I like Crash Bandicoot and wouldn't mind his inclusion in Smash, he hits just about every checkbox. However, and I fully realize this is incredibly petty, as a big fan of PlayStation All-Stars: Battle Royale (don't judge me), there's a part me of that doesn't want to see him Smash because it will destroy any chance of PlayStation All-Stars getting a sequel. Still, it's something I would get over.
Why judge? You were a fan of a great game; loved PlayStation All-Stars: Battle Royale myself. It was actually the first game my brother and I played when we set up our Let's Play YouTube channel a few years back. I so wish there was a chance for a sequel, but Sony didn't support the original PSASBR for too long, so it's very unlikely.
Like you, I had to take a couple points off simply for that slim hope of a PSASBR 2, where Crash would be far better suited... likewise with Cloud and Snake though.
Edit: Oops; I almost forget nominations. I guess I'll go with the same as last time, unless their is some rule against that.
Nominations x5: Fatal Frame Protagonist
Rayman
Chance: 15%
A western character would typically not have a chance in Smash due to Sakurai's Japan bias, but given Nintendo's recent relationship with Ubisoft, I think that Rayman in particular is a very possible choice for Smash. I also think his character design lends itself well to Smash, especially compared to other western characters.
Want: 50%
I don't like Ubisoft, but I do like Rayman. He's a funner character even if it feels like he was just shy of having been iconic. My only fear is that he will bring with him the godawful abomination that is the Rabbids. If there's one thing that is possibly more obnoxious than Minions, it's Rabbids. If Rayman brings them with him, then no thanks. Not even as trophies. Not even as stickers.
Crash
Chance: 2%
Crash may be a popular western character, but that doesn't mean anything to Sakurai as far as his track record is concerned. A third party character whose popularity is fickle at best doesn't really work well in my eyes, not for Smash. He's not popular or significant enough to warrant a slot.
Want: 0%
I'm not gonna lie, I would hate it if Crash got into Smash. He's another obnoxious western character that looks out of place among the Japanese designs.
Why judge? You were a fan of a great game; loved PlayStation All-Stars: Battle Royale myself. It was actually the first game my brother and I played when we set up our Let's Play YouTube channel a few years back. I so wish there was a chance for a sequel, but Sony didn't support the original PSASBR for too long, so it's very unlikely.
Like you, I had to take a couple points off simply for that slim hope of a PSASBR 2, where Crash would be far better suited... likewise with Cloud and Snake though.
He's only that likely because of the Smash 4 presence he had in trophies, but Rayman isn't a big Nintendo series and despite the closeness of Ubisoft and Nintendo lately I don't see the imperative for his inclusion. Sakurai I doubt cares about the character, Miyamoto isn't going to push for it, Ubisoft may want it to happen and they gave Sakurai the trophy model but Rayman just isn't that popular. Nonetheless the close friendship of Nintendo and Ubisoft might make it happen.
Want: 10%
I am not a fan of Rayman and I think his games are just not very good. The only one I played that I enjoyed was Rayman 1 a long time ago and it hasn't gracefully aged. The character's potential is that of many generic platformer protagonists. His series has some of the most awful side characters like Rabbids that I'd actively be opposed to being added to the game. Those are legitimately knock off minions, or maybe it's vice versa? Terrible whatever came first.
Crash Bandicoot
Chance: 1%
This is only 1% because Sakurai might pull this out as a surprise. He has zero connections to Nintendo outside of a port happening, this port coming a while after the roster was finalized. So there's no chance the port has any impact on Crash's inclusion. Crash is decently popular in Japan but he's almost always been a Playstation mascot. It'd be a Cloud situation only on a character who no one asked for besides a very recent port spurning on a bandwagon.
Want: 50%
I am a fan of Crash's series but Crash himself is a very boring prospect. I guess he might be an interesting prop/weapon user like Pac-Man or MegaMan, his default power is to spin and that is not an exciting core special move. He's got some other platforming abilities that don't translate well and some okay stuff, his fruit bazooka and belly flop are fun to adapt sure, but that and the spin hover, slide, and random animal buddies don't add up to anything cohesive. His playstyle would be at best intentionally stupid because Crash has a schizophrenic power set.
His series kind of hurts him in my opinion in 2018. The Crash franchise has gone downhill since the PS1 days and I am not a fan of the new voice actors, in particular Cortex, the idea of him somehow getting into Smash Bros is a nauseating thought. Sonic 06 looks good compared to the worst Crash has done in the 2000s and 2010s. I wouldn't normally mind but Cortex and the other villains who got worse voice actors plus a mixed bag of redesigns does wear out the series' appeal. When it's all changed, much of the time for the worse, I'm just not sure how much this is even appealing to me as nostalgia.
Chance: 0%
His history with Nintendo is almost non-existent, with the only exclusives being a shovelware party game and three handheld titles during an era where Nintendo was the only option for handheld gaming. And because I've had the same exact argument multiple times with mostly the same people, I'll just go over the beats here and ignore all the responses because I'm tired of doing this:
Pure star power isn't enough to get in. This is a Nintendo crossover game, you need to have a history with Nintendo to get in. Literally every third party franchise/company thus far is either important to Nintendo or Smash Bros. itself, with the exception of Snake, who was added at the request of a friend and is a special case. Also, if being a big name was all you needed, we would've already had characters like Master Chief or a League of Legends Champion. And, no, Cloud being in doesn't prove anything. Cloud is intended to represent the entirety of the Final Fantasy franchise, Sakurai flat-out said so in an interview. Whether or not he succeeds at this is irrelevant.
Want: 0%
It used to be 15% (my base score for Want) but now I'm rooting against him.
Rayman
Chance: 15%
I think people are overrating his chances because of the trophy. Yeah, he's the only third party character with no fighter from their universe to get a trophy, but in the end it's still just a trophy. Still, he does have a history with the company, and he's somewhat of a mascot for Ubisoft.
Want: Abstain
I haven't played the new ones yet. I have them, but they're on the dreaded Steam backlog.
Either of them would be unexpected. Rayman has already gotten acknowledged in Smash, so he has a fair chance. They're recognizable names in gaming, but they're not dominating a genre and did disappear for a few generations. I think it would come down to how requested they are.
As for want, I don't have a huge attachment to them, but they're okay additions in my eyes.
Chance: 50%
The limbless thingamajig has a lot of evidence in his favor as third party (Close relationships between Ubisoft and Nintendo as of late) but I would expect seeing Simon Belmont before him.
Want: 100%
Been dreaming of Rayman as a character since Brawl. He was a symbol of my childhood and he'd fit in with the rest of the cast just great.
-Crash Bandicoot.
Chance: 25%
Besides the fact that the N. Sane trilogy is coming to the Switch (and possibly Spyro) the only connections Activision and Nintendo have is the presence of Bowser and DK in Skylanders not so long ago. However, the relationship between the companies is not as strong as other third parties.
Want: 70%
Crash is iconic and would make a lot of people happy if he was in Smash. I would be happy if he made it in since I quite enjoy his games, but i wouldn't necesarily be upset if he was absent.
Zeroes all around for want and chance. Third parties have to be a really big deal to gaming (Bayo being the exception as she's the ballot winner), and neither of these guys have anywhere near the relevance the existing third parties have.
I do not believe that Western third-parties will make it in Smash anymore, at least for Ultimate's base game. The more I thought about Sakurai's many quotes about representing Japanese video games in Smash Bros...:
—Final Fantasy VII (FFVII below) has never been released on a Nintendo console, so how did Cloud end up appearing in Smash?
Sakurai:Final Fantasy (FF below) is one of the few uniquely Japanese game series revered by players around the world. I think fans across the globe have hoped a character from one of those series would appear in Smash, so it was only a matter of time. At the same time, there are only so many big-name titles we can work with at this point—mainly because we’ve covered most of those bases. Aside from the major globally-recognized franchises already featured in Smash, there really aren’t that many left.
"I believe I should be thankful that I am given such funds to be able to use such iconic characters and content that represent Japanese games with such freedom, and have multitudes of people across the world play with them."
...The more I feel that the third-parties that will be in Ultimate will be from hugely iconic, Japanese third party series. I do not think he has considered Western 3rd parties seriously at all. I think that he will be negotiating Japanese third-parties that cover the remaining bases of represent the Japanese video game industry as a whole mentioned in the Nintendo Dream interview, with additions like Simon Belmont and possibly Layton coming to mind. The only way I can see Crash and Rayman happen at this point is if Western third-party companies themselves approach Sakurai for an open offer. And I can only see Ubisoft doing this, but I am unsure if Sakurai would want to take an opportunity like Rayman right now. Sakurai has spent the whole 3 years is putting his resources on bringing every veteran back and bringing as much content like stages/newcomers/modes as he can to make Ultimate the best game ever. I feel Sakurai is most likely going to put the remaining funds for negotiating the remaining Japanese third-parties, rather than put the funds on Western third-parties. Japanese third-party developers would be easier to negotiate than Western third-party developers at this point. DLC is one way to which I feel Sakurai can be open to the idea of Western third-parties. But for the base game, I think Rayman and Crash are very unlikely to happen.
Rayman:
Chance: 60%
Ok, so I'm going to go label all of the potential hurdles Rayman has to face before being included and I'll give my take on the situation. Let's start.
Rayman and Ubisoft do not have enough history on Nintendo hardware - This argument has always been confusing to me. Rayman has made an appearance on every piece of Nintendo hardware since the N64 with Rayman 2, with appearances on GBA, GCN, DS, Wii, 3DS, Wii U, and now the Switch. In this regard, Rayman has made a significant footprint on Nintendo hardware. Also, Ubisoft is currently one of the biggest third partners of the Switch, with Mario + Rabbids being the best selling third party game on the system. Needless to say, Ubisoft does have a long history with Nintendo and Rayman would be a great fit for Smash, which leads to....
Rayman isn't iconic enough - Look. I am not here to convince you that Rayman is on the same level as Sonic, Mega Man, Pac Man, Cloud, and Ryu. To say otherwise would be ignorant and show bias on my part. However, Bayonetta proves that you do not need to be a household name to be considered for Smash. I realize that fan demand and game exclusivity were the reasons why Bayo was included, but her games didn't exactly sell like gangbusters, either. Rayman may not be a gaming icon on the level of the aforementioned five, but he isn't obscure. After all, his series has been around since 1995 and sales amount to over 25 million, so he has seniority and success behind his belt. Plus, he is the mascot of Ubisoft, who is one of biggest video game companies in the world.
Rayman is a Western character - This is the strongest argument that can be used against Rayman. Rayman may be fairly well known in America and Europe, but he isn't a big nane in Japan. He also originates from France, not Japan. However, there are several factors to consider in regards to this issue. First of all, the Rayman series has its foot in the Smash door with three trophies. There hasn't been any explanation as to why this was the case, but many point out that Rayman Legends was published by Nintendo in Japan for Wii U. Perhaps he was considered for an inclusion, but he got trophies following Legends going multi plat? Who knows. It wouldn't have been such a big deal if Rayman only got one trophy like Commander Video, but he got three. Being obscure in Japan hasn't stopped other characters in the past from joining, though. I realize he is a first party, but Little Mac got in mainly due to high demand from Western audiences. This may be speculation on my part, but given how Bayonetta was announced to be a top choice in the U.S., Europe, and worldwide, why didn't they go over the Japanese results at the time? Was she not a popular choice in Japan? If you really want to get technical, then Diddy might as well be a western character since he was conceived by Rare, a British company. Of course, I'm just saying this for the sake of my argument, but I do think it's something to consider. Also, has Sakurai ever outright said that there would be no western characters in Smash? Even if he did say that, though, it's not unheard of for Sakurai to change his mind. After all, Sakurai did say that an Animal Crossing character would be too peaceful for Smash, yet here we are. It's not a sure thing to happen, but I wouldn't put it past Sakurai to go back on his word, either. Rayman may be hurt by the lack of Japanese popularity, but it doesn't seem to be the end all-be all for an inclusion. Being Western himself may be one of those things that hurts Rayman's chances, but Sakurai has been known to break trends, so who knows.
Rayman has been dormant - Rayman hasn't had a new game since 2013, but dormancy didn't stop Mega Man from joining Smash. Unlike Mega Man before his eventual inclusion, Rayman Legends has been ported to many platforms in recent years with the most recent rerelease being on Switch so it's not like Rayman has been doing nothing these past few years. As for Rayman not being included in Mario + Rabbids? I still think that Rayman would get in over Rabbids due to demand, but never say never. I'm just saying that Mario + Rabbids might have come out too late for the Rabbids to be considered for Smash 5's roster, but that's just a guess. Rayman isn't as active as, say, Sonic, but he hasn't been completely dormant like Mega Man was back then.
Rayman has a lot going for him. He's unique, fairly iconic, has a long history on Nintendo hardware, three trophies in Smash, and is the mascot of a company who is currently very close to Nintendo right now. The lack of Japanese support does hurt him as does the mere possibility of a Rabbid getting in, but overall? Rayman is in a good place that not many third parties can claim to be in. Ubisoft would also be very willing to work with Nintendo on his inclusion, so negotiations could go smoothly. He's no shoo-in, but Rayman has a strong shot at making it in Smash 5, whether it be in the base game or as DLC.
Want: 100%
The Omni leak is the reason why I made an account on Smashboards. It opened my eyes to just how awesome it would be to have Rayman in Smash and apparently, a lot of other people shared the same desire. Maybe he wasn't such an outlandish pick to be in Smash. Also, Rayman 2 was my childhood and everyone needs to play Origins and Legends. Without a doubt my #1 most wanted newcomer and would be a dream come true if he joined the battle.
Has my outlook on the limbless hero changed since Smash Ultimate has been revealed at E3?
First of all, I believe that many of the strengths and weaknesses that I mentioned about Rayman still hold up today. Although Rayman is a unique and fairly recognizable character who is from a company that not only has three trophies in Smash 4, but is a big supporter of Nintendo hardware, Rayman suffers from a lack of Japanese popularity and competition from other third party characters. This competition only got more stiff due to the revelation that Smash Ultimate may not have as many newcomers as previous entries, which means Rayman could be less prioritized.
However, alongside Ultimate's blowout at E3, we got to learn some very interesting pieces of info. For starters, Ubisoft's relationship is only getting stronger with Nintendo as the Nintendo Switch version of Starlink is getting exclusive Star Fox content. This is hot off the success of Mario + Rabbids and shows a healthy relationship between Nintendo and Ubisoft.
Along with Ultimate's reveal, we also got to see a newcomer in the form of Ridley. What's interesting about Ridley's inclusion is that Sakurai added him in due to the outcry from Western fans. Even though Rayman's situation is nowhere near identical to Ridley's since Rayman is a third party and did not have the same amount of demand as Ridley, it's also another case of Sakurai putting in a character that has extensive Western support.
However, by far the most intriguing bit that we learned about Ultimate is that its first project plan was finalized back in December 2015. This means a few things for Rayman. Even though Rayman is sort of dormant now, was he really dormant back in December 2015? Not exactly, as Rayman Legends was released in September 2013, about two years prior to Ultimate's initial project plan. Keep in mind that Rayman may have got those trophies in Smash 4 due to Nintendo publishing the Wii U version of Legends in Japan.
The second thing to take away from this is that Sakurai may not have known about Mario + Rabbids at this time. I only say may because none of us really know about how much access Sakurai is given to Nintendo's future lineup. However, the Rabbids are probably in the same boat as Spring Man and Rex & Pyra in that they probably came around too late, as Mario + Rabbids was announced in June 2017 and released in August 2017. I also don't think a "Greninja situation" for the Rabbids is entirely likely. Granted, the Rabbids have been around since 2006, but their popularity didn't really increase until Mario + Rabbids came around. Just look at Bayonetta, as Bayonetta 2 was announced as a Wii U exclusive back in 2012 (the same year production on Smash 4 officially began), yet she was not in the base game and was instead the very last character added as DLC.
We may not know if that project plan included the roster or if the newcomers will be based off of the Ballot. However, 2015 was arguably the time where Rayman's popularity was at its peak due to the Omni hoax and trophies. Whether that peak is high enough for him to join Smash, we'll just have to wait and see. That's why I personally feel Rayman is a coin flip character. Rayman has so many things going for him that it wouldn't be shocking to see him be included. However, I also would not be surprised if he got passed up in favor of other characters. Simon Belmont is looking pretty likely and given that Sakurai already made a direct appeal to the West with Ridley and there are only so many newcomers that they can make, Rayman may very well stay a trophy or maybe even an AT.
I may be bias to Rayman and I may be grasping at a few straws to make my case. However, I still think Rayman would make for a compelling inclusion and if I didn't change your mind, I hope I made you understand my perspective. Chance: 50%
Want: 100%
Easily my most wanted newcomer for Smash Ultimate. Either him or K. Rool would make this the ultimate Smash game in my eyes. See above.
Crash Bandicoot Chance: 20%
Given that the first project plan was finalized in December 2015, that probably means Crash missed the boat for base game. N-Sane Trilogy was not a thing back then and unless Crash had massive support on the Ballot, I see his inclusion to be unlikely. No doubt he will be a top contender for DLC, though, due to the N-Sane Trilogy coming out on Switch. Want: 50%
Although I never played his games, I love Crash's zany personality and design. Plus, I wouldn't mind seeing more animal newcomers in Ultimate.
Rayman
Chance: 60%
I use to have it at 40 cause of the great relations between Ubisoft and Nintendo but now that I see there's unused data for a Rayman amiibo in Mario maker 3ds that definitely raises the chances I'd say! https://tcrf.net/Super_Mario_Maker_for_Nintendo_3DS
Also to anyone who says rabbids are more likely? Nah
Think of the cloud situation. His franchise had alot of association with Nintendo but cloud himself didn't. But because he was the most requested final fantasy rep, they went with cloud. And who is the most requested Ubisoft rep? Rayman no doubt.
Want: 100%
One of the most deserving third parties and would fit great in smash.
Crash
Chance: 20%
I don't see him getting in the base roster but maybe as dlc
Want: 20%
I don't want him that bad but would be cool to see the three icons of the 90's go at it!
Rayman
Ubisoft and Nintendo are getting along great at the moment, it seems, with crossovers with Mario and DK and Rabbids. But might it be that due to those crossovers, a Rabbid would be a better candidate for inclusion in a crossover game? Rayman is the longer standing Ubisoft mascot though.
Additionally Rayman got two trophies in the game, and Ubisoft had an AT in Smash 4. So Ubisoft is already willing to let their content be in Smash. With Mario x Rabbids doing so well, they might be wishing to increase collaboration.
Rayman chances: 24%
Ultimately, there are a number of candidates for 3rd-parties, and I don't know how many we should expect. Most of the 3rd-party characters are iconic. But Bayonetta shows there's room for a more niche 3rd-party. Rayman is a decent candidate, but there is competition from Rabbids as well as the possibility that someone like Simon Belmont makes the cut but Rayman does not. But overall he just doesn't seem as big a name as the other 3rd-parties we might see (or have as much of a Nintendo fanbase as characters like Banjo-Kazooie or Geno). The big thing he has going for him is that Ubisoft and Nintendo have a good working relationship and he previously got some content in Smash.
Rayman want: 25%
Meeeeh.
Crash Bandicoot
I still associate him with Playstation, but he obviously hasn't been exclusive for most of his history. But still, he doesn't have a strong association with Nintendo. He would also be the only Activision content to appear in the game, so he requires bringing on an additional company while several of the third-parties also considered contenders (Rayman from Ubisoft, Simon from Konami, Geno from Square) already had content in previous Smash games or already have been confirmed to have content in SSBU. While this isn't a huge impediment if Sakurai/Nintendo wants him (it seems most companies would have no problem with it) it is still a higher hurdle than those other characters would face.
Obviously he'd be fine as a fighter - a moveset should be easy enough I guess. But would he bring anything unique?
Ultimately, I just don't think Crash is as wanted as those other 3rd-parties either. There don't seem to be many polls where he placed highly.
Crash chances: 4%
Crash want: 0%
I don't like his design, and his previous position as a Playstation mascot makes me want him even less. At least with Cloud he's representing Final Fantasy as a whole*, even if I'd prefer a more Nintendo-friendly FF character (Terra, Black Mage, Moogle, or something like that)
*Speaking of, they'd better put in some music from FF6 and other installments this time.
While we're on the topic of Rayman, made this meme a while back as a joke.
(Also if the picture fails to work then the admins can just delete this post)
Chance: 30%. Ubisoft and Nintendo have had good relations for awhile now, and there were those random trophies in 4. It's not higher because M&R started development after the Roster was finalized.
Explosion
Chance: 5%. A recent port is the only major thing he has going for him. While a likely choice for DLC, I have doubt for initial release.
Abstain on Want, because I don't care about either one.
Chance 40%
Nintendo and Ubisoft have had a good relationship, but I feel like the Rabbids are equally as likely at this point sadly. I also don't think many third parties are going to get in since Sakurai and the team are adding in all the characters from the previous entries.
Want 10%
I think his play style would be interesting, but I've never been interested in the Rayman series.
Crash Bandicoot
Chance 2%
Crash doesn't really have many ties to Nintendo, and the N-Sane Trilogy came out came out almost a year ago at this point. Even if it is getting ported to the switch, I don't think that'll make him a priority.
Want 11%
Like Rayman, I've never played any of the Crash games. But Crash seems like he'd fit in with the wonky and whimsical Nintendo cast a bit better than Rayman would.
Rayman
Chance
9%
Don't see it happening anymore. We're already at 7 third parties, and with Simon looking incredibly likely, on top of limited space, I don't think we're getting many third parties
Want 20%
He'd be OK, but I'd rather put priorities elsewhere
Crash
Chance 4%
Want 38%
Repeat what I said about Rayman, except also mention his dormancy at the time the game started. And his games appeal to me more
Prediction
Paper Mario 19%
Celica 12%
Nominate Parabo and Satebo x3
All stages returning x2
Chance - 37.5% - Nintendo and Ubisoft have made great partners, especially recently. Rayman is more or less their mascot, so I think he would get in over, say, the Rabbids. Still, third parties are tight, especially recently, so I don't want to rate them too highly.
Want - 67.5% - While I did enjoy Legends, I'm not certain if he could be very interesting. That said, he is worthy as a third party in my eyes.
Crash Bandicoot
Chance - 3.5% - I think the ports were too late. I don't see why he would be chosen, given his popularity came too late to consider.
Want - 50% - Have no opinion on him.
Predictions
Paper Mario - 16.92% - Who knows?
Celia - 12.45% - I don't think she has a chance...
He lost a ton of ground yes very high with Nintendo but there's are two Godzilla size roadblocks that popped out and that's simon Belmont and Geno (for geno sakurai highly considered him twice and safe bet he's in the top 10 zone on the ballot and this smash is likely focused on the fan wants)
Want 90%
I would love this
Crash bandicoot
Chance 1%
Now this percentage is for the base roster because his trilogy came out too late for smash
but dlc is a much much higher percentage because sakurai would do it for another dream battle and probably due to be relevant with Nintendo all over again (Mario vs Sonic vs Crash)
I'm fairly confident he wasn't a popular ballot pick, and considering his Trilogy's Switch port is what really got people rallied for his inclusion, and how that almost certainly came too late to influence Smash. I can easily see him making DLC, however.
Abstaining on everything else. I feel like Rayman could be likely, considering the mentions of Nintendo and Ubisoft being close in Ubisoft's E3, but I really don't know, considering the limited newcomer space.
I like Rayman and Crash Bandicoot just fine, but I'm pretty indifferent on whether or not they make it into Smash. Probably the only two western third party characters I'd be down to see, if that means anything.
Chance: 45% - It's hard to say. On one hand, He's got trophies, plenty requests (especially after a certain hoax), His daddy is friends with Mario's daddy, & his parent company has been very chummy with Nintendo lately. On the other hand, he never really took off in Japan, has rough competition, & said parent company could very well go with the Rabbids instead (pees me off just thinkin' about it). Personally speaking, I hope Sakurai & co. add him in for the same reason Ridley was added.
Want: 100% - I've played numerous Rayman titles throughout my life (playing Rayman 2 as I type this!), & having him cross paths with Mario plus potentially generating foreign interest via Smash would be candy for me on a personal level. Be it base game or DLC, I need the homie in Smash.
Crash:
Chance: 30%- While N.Sane Trilogy has gotten the furball's momentum in high gear (moreso with the incoming Switch port), the timing couldn't be more off with the SSBU project plan forming in late 15' (a good two-ish years before Crash made a comeback). That being said, he'd be fresh for DLC content, for the simple fact that Japan LOVES (or loved) the bandicoot as much as the US does, which gives him an edge over other western characters, I reckon. Of course, it could all come down to whether Activision will want to play ball or not, as they're ties with Nintendo aren't as gleaming as others (I should mention that, according to sources like this, Crash on the Switch probably wouldn't even be a thing had it not been for one dev.)
Want: 90% - Perhaps even more so than Rayman, ol' Cash Banooka has been a series I've followed since childhood. It'd be fire to see him finally square up against Sonic & ,of course, Plumber Boy. Granted, Rayman is top priority for me, partly cuz' I feel he has a little more to work with than Crash, moveset-wise. Ask me if I want BOTH, however?....
Rayman
Chance: 20% - Nintendo and Ubisoft are very close right now and Sakurai has already represented Rayman with a trophy. He has a decent shot.
Want: 60%
Crash
Chance: 1% - Friendly reminder that the character formerly regarded as a PlayStation mascot didn’t even make it into PlayStation All Stars Battle Royale because his current owners were so stingy with him. Having him in a Nintendo fighting game would be far more unlikely.
Want: 20%
Everyone here pretty much explained all the pros and cons of Rayman getting in. Even though he looks like he has a good chance of getting in, I have a bad feeling it won't happen, even if it saddens me very much, as he is my childhood videogame hero (even with Mario, Sonic and Crash being part of it, Sonic being the only one I liked as much). I believe he really deserves to be in this game, even if I love the roster as it is. He is a character filled with personality, shown in his games by actions and dialogues, not just recognizable by his design, and would fit right into Nintendo's universe. He is a cartoony non-human 3rd party character with high chances of getting in, and we need more of that and less of human, realistic or anime characters. Smash is all about cute, cartoony characters fighting each other! His games are filled with eccentric characters (please, no Rabbids...), beautiful backgrounds, amazing soundtracks and moveset inspirations. I can't help but feel very biased in presenting my arguments like that, because I know he is not very popular and if I was introduced to the games right now maybe I wouldn't feel the same way for the character. Even if I enjoyed Origins and Legends a lot! But people who say they don't care about him haven't seen the bigger picture of this character. He was popular in Europe, so I really hope Sakurai sees how perfect he would be and makes European gamers happy. I don't want to be hyped by speculations about the relationship with Ubisoft, but I really think besides other Nintendo characters, he deserves the most, in terms of popularity, design, number of games and Smash inclusion by his trophies. The other ones I would see as deserving by being cartoony icons was Bomberman, that sadly or not got to be an assist trophy, Banjo Kazooie, who don't have nearly as many or recent games as Rayman and Crash.
Crash
Chance: 5%
Want: 80%
Would love to see him in Smash because even though I prefer Rayman over him, he is still very special to me. But I don't think he deserves it, as he was more of a Playstation mascot and would feel really out of place.
