Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[GoodGrief741]

Yoshi

Chance: 1%
I’d give 0% in chance, since Reggie’s statement disconfirms anyone who ever appeared in a Smash game in any capacity, but I’ll keep it over 0 because Plant. As a Lip supporter, seeing her get in the game is bittersweet: she got a lot, and that’s great, but just as she gets in it turns out getting in disqualifies from DLC. Ouch. But she didn’t have a great chance of getting in before, so hey, at the end of the day...

Also, to those saying Lip isn’t popular, are you for real? She’s 100% the most popular retro character in the ballot, while Takamaru got bandwagonned hard (and I’m a Takamaru supporter and my most wanted is in direct competition with both of them).

Want: 100%
It’s stupid that Lip got erased out of her own games. The characters and settings are great. There’s a great injustice that needs to be fixed. And Smash isn’t done until every Nintendo character is there.

Predictions: Ray 1%

Nominations: Mach RiderX5 (not my most wanted either in case you were wondering)

 

[3DSNinja]

How did Reggie's statement dis confirm everyone in the game? I just saw it as reaffirming Sakurai's 'No echoes' statement

 

[Artix]

Lip

Chance: 1%
With Joker's inclusion and Reggie's statement about characters new to the series, I don't think Lip has a chance here since she already appeared as a spirit. Even if she doesn't, she would not generate hype out of fans like Joker did and that's what Nintendo is most likely going for. She may be popular, but with Joker's revelation as a DLC Fighter, thing aren't really good for her...

Want: Abstain
I don't know much about Lip, so I abstain on want.

Ray Prediction: 3.28%

Nominations:
Nero Claudius (Fate) x5

 

[Koopaul]

Lip
Chance: 0.1
I never vote 0% because anything is possible in Smash. I think we've been proven that multiple times. But I think the Mii costume is the kiss of death... maybe. But definitely this time.
Want: 70%
Once again another very distinct and very interesting Nintendo character who could benefit greatly from Smash. Certainly not my first choice but a fairy who summons blocks could be fun.

 

[Jyl]

Lip
Chance- 5%
I'm being realistic but generous at the same time, as Lip is my number one most wanted.
Chances of her for DLC for THIS game looks bad I admit, but Lip and Panel de Pon still has an audience these days in both Japan and the West. You simply have to check Twitter/Facebook whatever; many fans are still uploading new fanarts, posting screenshots of the game, or just showing support for the series in general. There's even an ongoing fan project going on now.
Most people who aren't aware assumes Lip is unpopular. That's not true. Her series is obscure yes, but claiming her to be unpopular is stupid. I still say her chances are low because I think there are higher priorities for promoting characters but I don't say it's impossible because Lip simply does have an audience, and as long as there's demand for her, chances are never 0%.

I don't believe for a second that spirits deconfirm character; that's a short-sighted way of thinking. I also don't believe Reggie's word either. And hey, Lip would be unexpected according to Reggie.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

How did Reggie's statement dis confirm everyone in the game? I just saw it as reaffirming Sakurai's 'No echoes' statement

It wasn't even reaffirming that. It was just literally saying characters aren't going to be super obvious picks and that obviously no vets will be DLC.

...That's kind of it. Whether or not people want to take it to mean newer franchises(which would count for Joker) is another story. At least for the Fighter's Pass. We could get characters from unrepresented franchises too, actually. But I doubt that's the meaning behind it. It was basically an obvious thing to repeat. The unexpected part is definitely a new factor.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Reggie literally said DLC will be characters new to the series. Not ‘new as fighters’, not ‘character will be new period’. New to the series. If you were in the series before, you’re not new. It’s literally what he said. Whether people want to interpret it in another way, it’s their problem.

 

[Cetus]

So, will this Reggie statement change the way this rating system works? Because he outright disconfirmed plenty of characters just from that whole "new to the series thing."

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Reggie literally said DLC will be characters new to the series. Not ‘new as fighters’, not ‘character will be new period’. New to the series. If you were in the series before, you’re not new. It’s literally what he said. Whether people want to interpret it in another way, it’s their problem.

New as playable is more what he meant. Any character who isn't playable in a previous game is "new to the series" with that too. He was strictly talking about playable character options. Ignoring the context paints a huge misinterpretation of it. There is no reason to only expect characters from unrepresented franchises entirely. Maybe some, like Joker was, but the fact Piranha Plant is DLC in general proves that it clearly isn't anything more than "new to the series as playable", which fits the context way better than some idea that spirits disconfirm.

 

[GoodGrief741]

New as playable is more what he meant. Any character who isn't playable in a previous game is "new to the series" with that too.

That’s not what he said though, you just choose to think that’s what he meant.

Maybe some, like Joker was, but the fact Piranha Plant is DLC in general proves that it clearly isn't anything more than "new to the series as playable", which fits the context way better than some idea that spirits disconfirm.

You’re ignoring context, he was talking about the Fighter Pass, so Piranha Plant isn’t relevant to that comment.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

That’s not what he said though, you just choose to think that’s what he meant.



You’re ignoring context, he was talking about the Fighter Pass, so Piranha Plant isn’t relevant to that comment.

"Everyone's in smash. So we've said that Super Smash Bros. Ultimate is the biggest crossover in gaming history, may I say the biggest crossover in entertaining. And so yes. So this gives the flavor as to how we're approaching DLC. These are going to be characters that are new to the series such as Joker from Persona 5, characters that you would not expect to be in Super Smash Bros Ultimate."- Reggie

No, that is what he said. He strictly was talking about playable characters. That's a key context that actually changes the meaning. You're taking it entirely at face value here while ignoring the entire context.

Plant is still proof that DLC in general is meant to be unexpected. And he's a new playable character to the series. They all fit the exact same mold of his statements. Even Joker fans are surprised. Plant wasn't exactly known for having fans. They're both unexpected, and... new to the series(as playable, with is the strict context that still matters).

Of course he didn't have to say playable. That's a given considering the type of DLC it is. It was obvious the context. You could effectively call it common sense(not to say common sense is universal). Don't honestly be surprised if we get some actual characters from franchises still in Smash. We could still get Geno. Or Sephiroth. And so on. Though Sephiroth is harder to say, due to the fact that when it comes to getting another VII character, he's heavily expected. But that might be among the hardcore fanbase, where the majority would think otherwise.

Let's not forget that he says unexpected within the same sentence, showing how they're a key point together.

 

[ProfPeanut]

Shouldn't we be getting score tallies again? Also, wouldn't some rerates be in order right now? I can think of at least one franchise we could revisit.

Lip

Chance: 10%
Yeah, sorry. Spirit representation, a Mii costume, recent developments - nothing really suggests that Nintendo's interested in getting Lip back into the spotlight. Puzzle League's already had its time, and Lip isn't someone I'd call the highest standard in terms of characterization.

Want: 45%
At this point in time, I now feel that Arle Nadja doesn't have a strong chance of getting in as long as Lip hasn't made it into Smash either. So I'm just going to call it support for the sake of mutual benefit.


Prediction:
Ray: 4%

Nomination:
Frisk x5

 

[Nemuresu]

Lip:
Chance: 0%-Well, there's the Mii Costume, and those were pretty much a death sentence for many characters back when Smash 4 had DLC. Now, on to a far bigger issue.
This article right here:

“It's emblematic of the approach that Mr. Sakurai and the team are taking with the DLC,” [...] “He wants characters that are unique, different, to bring them into the Smash Bros. environment. So it's going to be tremendously exciting.”
[...]
“Mr. Sakurai, he's not only a student of Nintendo franchises, and obviously he's had his hand in a few, but he's a student of video games from a total perspective,” [...] “And so he's been the driver in really thinking about what type of character coming into Super Smash Bros. Ultimate would bring just a whole different level of fun and enjoyment for the player. That's been the approach. That's the thinking."
"[...]And so our job is to continue growing the install base for Nintendo Switch to drive engagement of our players, to grow the audience. As that happens, then developers see the opportunity,[...]”

Honestly, I just think many characters are done for now. It's clear their approach is to attract people into buying Switches and Smash copies with the DLC. I don't think there's even a chance for a Nintendo character at all, but I'll save more depth into that for another day.
Want: ABSTAIN-Know nothing about the character.
Nominations: All-guests passx5

 

[11th]

A bit late, but the day hasn't finished yet, so I suppose I'll jump back in.


Lip
Chance: 0% - Still Japan-only? Outside of Ultimate, yes. Spirit? Check. Mii outfit? Check. Lip's Stick item still exists? Check. Yeah, I'm not going to kid myself or anyone else, she doesn't stand a chance. DLC will favor bigger hitters and (possibly) promotional picks. Unless Intelligent Systems and Nintendo have been secretly developing a new Panel de Pon game that they plan to release world wide, unaltered, there's nothing going for her right now outside of the standard "she would be surprising" and "she could have a unique moveset", which also applies to dozens of other, much more prominent characters.
Want: 95% - Swapped places with my other most wanted because I'm very happy with her current representation. She's finally officially out of Japan. We finally have multiple ways of showing our support for her in the game with the outfit and the online icon... but that's not to say that it wouldn't be amazing if she made the roster. I would still like a (proper) puzzle representative, and PdP is still my favorite puzzle game. Maybe someday. One step at a time.


[Insert usual no nominations comment here.]

 

[WaddleMatt]

Lip:

Chance - 0.1%

Nothing is impossible! But she has nothing going in her favour with a spirit and a mii costume as well as being a character exclusive to Japan. With Joker being our first DLC character I don't think Lip is in the same vain. Don't see her getting in at all really.

Want - Abstain

I have literally no connection to this character at all. Surprised she has as many fans as she does since she is Japan exclusive.

Nominations: Rhythm Girl x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Shouldn't we be getting score tallies again? Also, wouldn't some rerates be in order right now? I can think of at least one franchise we could revisit.

Lip

Chance: 10%
Yeah, sorry. Spirit representation, a Mii costume, recent developments - nothing really suggests that Nintendo's interested in getting Lip back into the spotlight. Puzzle League's already had its time, and Lip isn't someone I'd call the highest standard in terms of characterization.

Want: 45%
At this point in time, I now feel that Arle Nadja doesn't have a strong chance of getting in as long as Lip hasn't made it into Smash either. So I'm just going to call it support for the sake of mutual benefit.


Prediction:
Ray: 4%

Nomination:
Frisk x5

On scores: expect something this week. I plan on doing a lot for the front page around Thursday/Friday.

On rerates: No. As much as I would argue the third parties we rated go up, I feel that doing so would have to be saved after the fixed schedule. If we do rerates, expect them to appear a week or so after we finish the characters. This goes in line with what we have done in the past, primarily rating characters either as double days (which I want to limit rn but might do) or afterwards. In short, not yet.

If we were to do rerates, the ones I would look at would be Third Parties, but especially Crash. I feel leaning away from Nintendo relevancy and going hard guest characters is a good sign for him.

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Lip

Abstainationion

Nominations: Impa x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Lip
Chance: 0.5%
Yeah, after Joker I'm pretty much feeling like Spirits are a deconfirmation which sucks since it takes out anyone I could possibly be interested in bar Crash Bandicoot and Spyro(who isn't happening before Crash). At least she got a Mii outfit this time. It's something. She can join Chibi-Robo(who's day I missed), Toad, Dixie Kong, Isaac, Saki, etc at least.

Want: 55%
I was never a big fan of adding retros for retros sake, but of the retro individuals Lip was one of my more preferred ones, only being beaten out by Balloon Fighter(who's game I actually love) and Bubbles from Clu Clu Land(who I think would have an interesting gimmick). Again, glad to see she's got a Mii outfit. Definitely going to make her at some point.

 

[DaUsername]

Abstaining from //.
Ray prediction: 0.1%
Noms: Stages outside Fighter Pass x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day over, abstain myself , sephiroth x 5, rate Ray and predict Saki.

 

[Ridrool64]

Yu's broth-- oh wait, that's Rei, not Ray.

Chance: 0.0001% (basically 0%). Literally copy-paste everything I said about Lip. Well, he's not Japanese exclusive [I think, if he is shows what I know], but the fact that Nintendo let the trademark for even one of their games expire is telling.

Abstaining on want. I don't know jack about this guy or his series, so I don't come froma place of fairness.

Arle Nadja x 5, Saki will have 0.29% chance.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Well, let's try to write one up for this guy...

Little Bot Toy Bot

Chance: 0.1%
Want: 0%

So, which fanrule do we want to use as a disconfirm this time?

Yes, it's not specified that a role in game hurts chances. Yet. Still, that's something we all tell ourselves since we want Spirit X or Assist Trophy Y playable, and we're trying to console ourselves.

In Chibi Ray's case...he's a Spirit (I think...I still haven't picked up the game), he's a Mii costume, and he's from a niche franchise that put all of its last hopes on its latest game, and it didn't live up to expectations. He's about as dead as you can get in this world right now. Even if one of those fanrules isn't true, the combination of all of them isn't looking promising for the little guy.

We only have four slots left, and it's looking like "All DLC is 3rd party" will be likely, so I don't think this guy's gonna get much of a shot anymore. And I have zero connection to him. We have a robot (well, more than one if we want to be pedantic) in the game already, and I'm already not a fan of it. I don't need another.

Nom: More DLC x5

...yep, seems about right.

 

[PeridotGX]

Ray.

Lip

Chance - 0.33%. She's pretty obscure and already has a mii Costume. It doesn't bode well.

Want - Abstain

Noms: Grovyle x5

about right

 

[RileyXY1]

Ray

Chance: 0%

The fact that he's so obscure that people actually thought that the Custom Robo trademark expired makes his chances rather low. I don't know how they could get the general audience to by Ray if they made him DLC.

Want: 0%

I'm just not that interested. I've never played a Custom Robo game before and it's unlikely that I will.

Nominate: Concept: Spirits aren't deconfirmations x5

 

[Sari]

Abstaining completely on Ray. Basically another Lip/Chibi situation and I don't know much about them.

Saki chance prediction: 3.95%

Nominations:
Concept: SNK rep x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Abstain

Noms:
Gen 8 Pokemon x5

 

[SPEN18]

Ray

Chance: 1%
Based on the data we have he may have done okay in the Smash ballot in Japan, which gives him a tiny chance. The amount of Custom Robo stuff we saw in the Direct may have also been evidence of at least a so-so ballot performance. But unfortunately they don't seem to care about the ballot in terms of PCs and even less so in DLC. It's unfortunate, really, another Nintendo series with serious potential left by the wayside.

Want: 80%
He's similar to Chibi-Robo in that there's a lot more that can be done with the character both in terms of a Smash moveset and the Custom Robo series itself. Cool robot, cool first party series. Figures to get a pretty good score from me. Been on my radar since Brawl.

Edit: 5 noms to Andy again

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Gay Mk III
Chance: 1%
Want: 1%

Ray is from a dead franchise that hasnt gotten a game in years. He also has a spirit, which hurts his already horrible chances. Also Reggie mentioned that DLC will mostly be focusing on characters from new series for representation. "Expect characters you wouldn't normally expect." -Reggie Fils Aime. I feel like Ray wouldn't make much of an impact whatsoever if he were added. Which is why my chance and want score are the exact same as the last 2 days. A big fat grey 1% because this character doesn't interest me in the slightest. The assist trophy treatment fits him the best in my opinion, because if Isaac can't make it in despite the major support, there's no way in hell that "Gay Mk who the hell knows?" will make it in.

Reaper x5

Saki: 2.84%

 

[Icedragonadam]

Ray

Chance: 0.01%

-Obscure character that wouldn't really be hype worthy for DLC.
-Series is dead right now like Chibi-Robo & Golden Sun.

Want: ABSTAINED

Saki Prediction: 1.44%

Nominate All DLC is 3rd Party x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

The other Ray
Chance: 0.1%
Got costumed. Is very obscure. Series is dead on the water. Wouldn't sell well. I'm sounding like a broken record these past few days.

Want: Abstain

Saki: 1.59%
Hollow Knight x5

 

[WaddleMatt]

Ray:

Chance - 0.3%

Same reasoning as Lip, Mii Costume obviously. Only advantage is that he is at least a thing outside of Japan.

Want - Abstain

Never touched Custom Robo in my life.

Nominations: Rhythm Girl x5

 

[Troykv]

Ray

Chance: 1%

Actually dead character from a dead series that Nintendo doesn't care about enough to update their trademarks... that hurts, this people don't have real future in Smash, or other-wise for the moment...

Want: 50%

I like Mechas; but I would like other kind of stuff if would get a mechanical character in the future.

_____

Predictions:

Saki: 3.4%

Nominations:

Reimu Hakurei x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Ray (any mark will do)

Chance: 1%
One thing that Ray has over other obscure picks is that from what I’ve seen he’s polled surprisingly well, especially in Japan. But, he’s as costume.

Want: 100%
I love Custom Robo. It needs a comeback. But Smash will do.

Saki prediction: 7%

Mach RiderX5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Today’s a sad day, every PC in the D&D campaign I run died, plus it’s raining.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Lip pre-Ray

Over 200

Arle Nadja x265

200 - 151

Rhythm Girl x180
Concept: All DLC will be third-party x180

150 - 101

Nero Claudius (Fate) x140
Grovyle x135
Concept: More DLC x130
Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon x125
Mach Rider x125
Concept: Stages outside Fighter Pass x125
Reaper (Overwatch) x120
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x110
Kat & Ana x105
Professor Hector x104

100 - 51

Reimu Hakurei x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x95
Boss: Kracko x85
Hollow Knight x77
Lora (Xenoblade) x75
Andy (Advance Wars) x75
Impa x75
Porky Minch x66

50 - 25

Concept: Boss Rush x45
Sephiroth x45
9-Volt x44
Concept: SNK rep x40
Creeper x37
Papyrus x35
Ravio x35
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Ninten x26
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Spyro x25

Under 25
Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Frisk x15
Dark Matter x15
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Decidueye x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Concept: Style Savvy rep x10
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Amaterasu x5
Monokuma x5
Concept: Another joke character x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Ryu Hayabusa x5
Concept: Free updates (Splatoon-style) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Earthworm Jim x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Urbosa x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1

Our new nominee is Earthworm Jim, with 5 noms.

 

[Lasatar]

I really don't know anything about Ray, so abstaining. I can say that his chances are less that 5% tho.

Nominations: Reimu x5

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

A HOT NEW CUSTOM TRANSFORMER ACTION FIGURE

Sadly, it isn't looking too hot for our robo-dude. He already placed his name as a Mii costume, and to be honest, that's all I can really ask for from him at this point. This is an upgrade from Sm4sh for sure, where he was absent as an assist trophy, and I'm still torn whether moving from Assist to Costume is really an upgrade. Anyway, with the whole "Custom Robo Trademark" scare, and most people thinking that this wouldn't be unrealistic to happen. (luckily it didn't happen, and Nintendo still owns Custom Robo. Just not the technology for that console used in his game (I think that's what it is, it's been a while since I read about it) ) The reason I bring this up was because people were upset, yet not shocked. Nintendo hasn't really done anything recently with the series, and while I think it would be cool for it to make a comeback because it was a really unique game (as I've read), it is ultimately up to Nintendo, and they don't seem to feel that way...

Chance: 2.5%

Now, do I want him? Of course I do! I'm still nostalgic from Brawl with his unique assist trophy moveset in action, and it was easily one of my favorite assists from the game. But, I'm afraid, a bunch of other characters have pushed the priority that I want him further back to make room for him, and now I'm not so "YEAH RAY MK III" as I used to be...

Want: 60%

I have switched colors a total of 3 times, from classic to crimson to willow to banana (even if I occasionally forget to change the color of my post; how do people manage to do it so consistently?) but I'm going to stick with this color now for a while. It was inspired by the feeling of loss I felt when I discovered all of the taunts for all of the characters. They changed a whole lot, but I was most disappointed when I learned that Daisy would not be receiving a "H I, I ' M D A I S Y" taunt. Truly a missed opportunity.

Nominations: Impa x5

Prediction Saki: 6.9%. A pretty n i c e score for a spirit/costume.

 

[Artix]

Ray

Chance: 1%
With Joker's inclusion, I feel like first-party characters are not looking great right now. The only thing Ray has going for is it's Smash Ballot support and the fact that it's a thing in the West, but I highly doubt they would go out of the way and put him as DLC, especially since the DLC is mostly focusing on characters that are unexpected and would generate a lot of hype. Not to mention, his series is pretty much dead at this point so...

Want: Abstain
I haven't played any of the Custom Robo games.

Saki Prediction: 3.55%

Nominations:
Nero Claudius (Fate) x5

 

[Golden Icarus]

Ray

Chance 0.3%
Judging by how DLC has gone thus far in both Smash 4, and Ultimate, I highly doubt that they would add such a “who?” as Ray. Plus, the Mii costume is likely our consolation prize, which quite honestly is more than I could have hoped for.

Want 100%
One of those characters that would really send me over the moon. I love Custome Robo so god damn much. It was definitely one of my go-to games growing up, and it’s still fun to whip out to this day. Plus, I honestly feel that Smash could use more robos. R.O.B. and Mega Man are cool, but Ray has such a distinct style.

Saki Prediction - 1.2% (really it’s almost the exact same song and dance as Ray)

Noms: Scorpion x5

 

[DaUsername]

Abstaining from Ray, man.
Saki prediction: 1%
Noms: Stages outside Fighter Pass x5

 

[Kotor]

Abstain

Boss Rush x5