Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Icedragonadam]

Chibi-Robo

Chance: 0.01%. Poor little guy. His latest game was a bomb and he's doomed to the obscurity chamber. And he's a spirit.

Want: 60%. Never played his games. But he's so adorable.

Lip Prediction: 1.66%

Nominate All DLC are 3rd Party x5

 

[PeridotGX]

Abstain on Chibi.

Noms: Grovyle x5

 

[Koopaul]

Chibi-Robo

Chance: 0.1%
Let's face it, most of these guys we'll be ratibg aren't getting DLC but I can still show my love in the Want department. Chibi-Robo has pretty much no chance.
Want: 90%
This little guy is an awesome character and deserves more love. It would be great if more people knew and appreciated him.

There. Is that good enough? Adding those sentences seemes pointless but whatever.

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Chibi-Robo

Chance: 0.1%
Let's face it, most of these guys we'll be ratibg aren't getting DLC but I can still show my love in the Want department.
Want: 90%
This little guy is an awesome character and deserves more love.

Thanks for the Chibi support, but you'll still need 2 sentences to get the rating to count. Two sentences per category.

 

[Nemuresu]

Chibi-Robo:
Chance: 0%-He's a Mii Costume, that alone makes me think he won't be in. From now on, I'll be keeping Reggie's comment about the DLC characters that haven't touched Smash until said comment goes to hell in any capacity (which is basically introducing a character that appears as a spirit).
Want: 0%-I cared about him a few years, nowadays though? Not interested at all.
Nominations: All-guests Pass x5

 

[SkySkipper]

I haven't been on here in a while, but when I got on and saw that Chibi-Robo was the character, I knew I had to chime in.
Want: 100%
I would give higher than that if it were possible. Chibi-Robo has been my most-wanted character since brawl. I think a moveset where he takes damage from the draining battery and has to recharge could be cool.
Chance: 5% for DLC or 15% for Smash 6
That last Smash Direct gave me more hope for the little guy. After the single trophy representing the series in the last two games, I was beginning to wonder if Sakurai had a vendetta against him. After seeing that he not only got a Mii Fighter costume, but also was used to introduce Spirits mode, I'm more hopeful. Chances still aren't great, but the series is, along with Arms, Wars, Golden Sun and a few others, one of the biggest Nintendo series to not have a playable character. Chances for DLC are lower, because that has to sell on its own, and I'm afraid that Chibi-Robo hasn't shown that great a track record on that front.

 

[DaUsername]

Abstaining from the robot, and probably most days from here on out because it's obvious that speculation doesn't matter.
Liprediction: .01%
Noms: Stages outside Fighter Pass x5

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Chibi Robo gets the abstain from me...

Nominations: Spyro x5

 

[WaddleMatt]

Chibi Robo:

Chance - 1%

After Joker and well everything about his series and such... he has hardly any shot. Also the mii costume is a soft deconfirm??

Want - Abstain

Yea I know nothing about Chibi-Robo except he is cute.

Nominations: Rhythm Girl x5

 

[SPEN18]

I don’t know why Nintendo staked everything on Zip Lash doing well, it’s like if instead of Awakening, Fire Emblem’s future rested on the shoulders of an on rails shooter, and a mediocre one at that.

Yeah I don't like this whole ultimatum business, where Nintendo's like "okay guys if this game doesn't sell well then you're never making one again." Of course, it's not quite like that but it really did sound like Awakening could be the end for Fire Emblem, and that made me really sad at the time. Thankfully Awakening panned out, and though some not-so-good things like the waifu pandering and Fates came out of it, I'm optimistic about Three Houses, I thought SoV was a creative remake, and I still play FE Heroes (pretty much the only phone game I play). Plus FE got the representation it deserved in Smash (and a bit extra I'll admit we didn't need).

But in the case of Chibi-Robo, it's really a shame. The little guy is so lovable, and I think there is definitely still more that they can do with the character. Zip Lash was an experiment, and a whole franchise shouldn't be judged on what's closer to a spinoff than a mainline game. Another case where Smash could be what the little guy needs. Unfortunately it seems pretty unlikely, though.

He is so dead to the point where Nintendo made jokes about lighting him on fire.

I don't think there was any bad intention with that tweet. Really, the fact that somebody at Nintendo still remembers Chibi-Robo is nice to know.

Edit: grammar

 

[Smasher 101]

I'm just going to skip chance for this one and probably most other characters at this point. Not like Chibi-Robo has much of a shot anyway. DLC sounds like it's going to focus on unexpected big names, and a character from a not as popular franchise that's likely dead probably isn't going to cut it.

Chibi-Robo want: 90%

Only my top three (Banjo-Kazooie, Dixie Kong, Rhythm Heaven) are getting 100% from now on, but I'd still be happy with Chibi-Robo. I'm not even a big fan of his games, but I like the character himself a lot and he'd be really fun. He'd fit right in too, and the little guy really needs to catch a break.

 

[PapillonXtreme]

I'm gonna abstain on this one.

Nominations:
3rd Party Character from an unrepped company x5 (I wonder, does Atlus count as it's own company? If it is, then this is confirmed, right?)

 

[TCT~Phantom]

In endinf today at 12:30 est

 

[FancySmash]

Tiny ROB

Chance: 1%
We now have a taste of what DLC will look like. And for first parties, I must say it doesn't look good. Add to that the Chibi-Robo Mii costume, and his series being in limbo, and you get for a robo with poor chances all around.

Want: 80%
It's a shame too, I rather like Chibi-Robo. The game on GCN holds some fond memories with me. While the other games might be a miss, Chibi-Robo started out rather swell in my book.

Predict: Lip
Well, we are supposed to expect the unexpected, but I don't quite think this is what they had in mind. 6.27%

Nominate: Professor Hector x5

 

[AirMac1]

Chibi Robo:Chance-40% The reason he gets this high of a chance score, is because I’m pretty sure that Reggie said that all the DLC fighters in the fighter pass will be from franchises that don’t have a character in smash yet. Which means that even though his most recent game kinda stinked, he is a semi-popular Nintendo character from a series that doesn’t have a rep yet, and I’m pretty sure that Sora.LTD made at least one of his games.

Want-60% I may not like Zip-Lash, but his playable appearance in Smash is way overdue. Still, I don’t want his moveset to be just based on Zip-Lash, because that game totally bombed.

Noms:9-volt x5

 

[Koopaul]

Thanks for the Chibi support, but you'll still need 2 sentences to get the rating to count. Two sentences per category.

Since when was that a rule? I used to give one sentence per category before. If fact I've seen people do less! I honestly don't know what add to my post. Would a second sentence that just reiterates what the first sentence said be okay?

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Since when was that a rule? I used to give one sentence per category before. If fact I've seen people do less! I honestly don't know what add to my post. Would a second sentence that just reiterates what the first sentence said be okay?

It’s been a rule since May of 2018. It is in the front page. People who do less don’t get their scores/noms counted.

I’m ending the day now but you can have two hours to fix ya post, I usually give a 1 hr grace period.

Day over, rate lip and predict Ray Mk III (or a Ray in general idc)

 

[Koopaul]

Hm. I thought I made a one sentence rating before and it counted. Anyway, I updated my post.

Now I have a question. Do nominations made by people who abstain from rating count? I see a lot people make nominations but abstain from rating.

 

[AirMac1]

Abstraining on ratings and predictions, since I just rated Chibi Robo.

Noms:9-volt x5

 

[Ridrool64]

Nintendo's very own Arle, if Sega/Compile had abandoned Puyo entirely

Chance: 0.01%. Mii Costume and Spirit combine to present a downright deadly picture of Lip. Except this time it feels good, because the character herself has finally been acknowledged. The way Joker has set up the DLC = uh oh for Lip as well.

Want: 50%. I like Lip, and Panel de Pon is kinda fun. But she was... "competition" to Arle except not really. Nothing against her, but PdP, while fun, is kinda out of my skill bracket. I can't play it for crap.

I don't think Joker has totally killed Arle's chances anymore, so Arle Nadja x 5. Ray Mk III will have 0.39% Chance.

 

[Jomosensual]

Lip

Chance: 0 - Unfortunately for her fans, Joker swooped in out of nowhere and took any hopes she had at getting in. I don't think we get another sega rep here, so that's pretty much all for her shot in smash

Want: 0 - No real connection to the character or series. There are other characters I'd be far more interested in making it as DLC, and I think they're all going to be more high profile than Lip is.

Noms:
Gen 8 Pokemon x5

 

[Ridrool64]

I don't think we get another sega rep here, so that's pretty much all for her shot in smash

Lip's a Nintendo character, what are you talking about?

 

[StarDustStorm]

Lip
Chance
Abstain
At least people who got/saw any of the "Fairy Flower" items in ACNL's 2016 update will definitely know what that outfit is it based off of since Smash's outfit is named as her. (The body outfit is unlocked from the start in Ultmate) So the unamed outfit in AC is no longer an issue but she just needs to make some appearance outside of Japan outside of Smash. (Not counting the hidden button code discovered 13 years after a game's release) She has enough content in the game for someone to not miss the character, especially with the Mii outfit, profile pic, and Spirit whom previously was only referenced in Smash games.

Want
100%
One of my most wanted characters. A proper Puzzle rep is still lacking though. The series has been references a few times in Smash since Melee than just an item but also in one of Kirby's stone moves and the flower effect.

Lip's a Nintendo character, what are you talking about?

Jomosensual is referring to Arle or any other Sega rep specifically since she is a SEGA rep which Joker is another Sega rep. Not Lip.

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Lip
Chance: 1%
It doesn't look good for her at all. Being old, obscure, and Japan-only coupled with DLC having to be something the general public has to buy to make the effort worthwhile and her chances are next to nothing at this point. The Spirit Battle/Mii Costume don't help her case either.

Want: 10%
I kinda go back on forth for her, but I don't want her that much as I used to back in the Brawl days. She's not a bad character, but my interests have changed and there are others I'd like far more to see in. Plus, I'd like to keep the region-exclusive characters to a minimum.

 

[SPEN18]

Lip
Chance: 1%
As others have said, she's not the type of character you usually see in DLC. She's not a big third party crossover and her games are not mainstream. She could have a cool moveset, though.

Want: 20%
She gets some points for being from a new first party franchise. The main reason for the fairly low rating is that I feel her inclusion would be leapfrogging some other first party franchises that are probably more notable, like Golden Sun, Rhythm Heaven, Advance Wars, and a few others. So I'd have no complaints about her getting in, but I don't have a strong connection to her and feel that other franchises are ahead of her in line for playable representation in Smash.

 

[Sari]

Abstaining completely on Lip. I don't think her chances are all that great though considering her mii costume and the tons of competition she faces.

Ray MK III chance prediction: 3.31%

Nominations:
Concept: SNK rep x5

 

[3DSNinja]

abstaining on Lip because iDK who she is.
Nominations:
Hollow Knight x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Chibi-Robo pre-Lip

Over 200

Arle Nadja x260

200 - 151

Rhythm Girl x175
Concept: All DLC will be third-party x170

150 - 101

Nero Claudius (Fate) x135
Grovyle x130
Concept: More DLC x120
Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon x120
Mach Rider x120
Concept: Stages outside Fighter Pass x120
Reaper (Overwatch) x115
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x110
Kat & Ana x105
Professor Hector x104


100 - 51

Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x95
Reimu Hakurei x95
Boss: Kracko x85
Lora (Xenoblade) x75
Andy (Advance Wars) x75
Impa x70
Hollow Knight x67
Porky Minch x66

50 - 25

Concept: Boss Rush x45
Sephiroth x40
9-Volt x39
Creeper x37
Papyrus x35
Concept: SNK rep x35
Ravio x35
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Ninten x26
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Spyro x25

Under 25

Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Frisk x10
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Decidueye x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Concept: Style Savvy rep x10
Dark Matter x10
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Amaterasu x5
Monokuma x5
Concept: Another joke character x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Ryu Hayabusa x5
Concept: Free updates (Splatoon-style) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Urbosa x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1

Professor Hector stacks up 100 noms.

Spyro flies past 25 noms.

The consensus on this thread appears to be that fan favorites exclusively refers to the big guns of Smash speculation (as in Isaac, Geno, Banjo, Dixie, Dee, Waluigi, et al). I disagree and think that if that’s what’s expected then yeah, there’ll be no fan favorites, but the people have spoken and that Concept is not yet disconfirmed.

As for the CGI trailers, I don’t think anyone gave enough reasoning to keep it, so I consider it confirmed at 130 noms.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Chapped Lips
Chance: 0%
Want: 1%

She has a Mii Costume, a spirit, and her own item, two of which point to disconfirmation. I think that's enough representation for an obscure Japanese exclusive game that is old news at this point. Even worse, this same game was ported to the US in the form of "Tetris Attack", with many Mario and Yoshi characters replacing Lip completely. Her chances are pretty much dead, and there are much better retro characters that would make better and more interesting fighters than Lip. If we were to get another puzzle game rep, it would probably be something along the lines of Tetromino due to being iconic and out of left field. (Sorry Arle Nadja) This character also doesn't interest me in the slightest. (I'll still take her over Sans, Baldi, and Roblox Kid any day.)

Ray: 4.26% <Hey! That's my birthday!

Reaper x5

 

[RileyXY1]

Lip

Chance: 0%

Lip is completely Japan only. That's not good for a character's chances.

Want: 0%

I'm not interested in her. There's better "cute girl" fighters out there who are actually relevant.

Nominate: Concept: More DLC x5

 

[Icedragonadam]

I'm going to use dash points instead now. Each point counts as a sentence right?

Lip

Chance: 0.01%.

- Unfortunately is a Spirit and Mii Costume.
- Very obscure character in general that wouldn't make that much with DLC.

Want: ABSTAINED

Ray II Prediction: 1.55%

Nominate All DLC is 3rd Party x5

 

[N. Onymous]

Lip
Chance: 15%
Again, I might be a smidge too generous. She'd be perfect as a DLC character, she's got plenty of moveset potential and appeal, but we already know that Joker is at least somewhat indicative of the direction Ultimate's DLC will be heading in. To me, it seems to be along the lines of "third-party characters popular among older, more mainstream audiences, regardless of whether or not they have any connection to Nintendo at all"...which is a worrying precedent, not just for Lip but for any long-time Nintendo fan who wants their favorite retro character in the game (and if Steve is DLC, all bets are off). And considering the only downloadable characters for Smash 4 that weren't realistic humans were returning veterans, and we had all of one first-party newcomer, and that Fire Emblem: Three Houses is on the horizon and that IS will probably want it plugged in Smash Bros....it doesn't look good for the little fairy, that's all I'm saying.

Want: 100%
Do I even need to say it at this point? Lip would be an incredible addition to Smash Bros., especially the "Ultimate" one.

 

[Jomosensual]

Lip
Chance
Abstain
At least people who got/saw any of the "Fairy Flower" items in ACNL's 2016 update will definitely know what that outfit is it based off of since Smash's outfit is named as her. (The body outfit is unlocked from the start in Ultmate) So the unamed outfit in AC is no longer an issue but she just needs to make some appearance outside of Japan outside of Smash. (Not counting the hidden button code discovered 13 years after a game's release) She has enough content in the game for someone to not miss the character, especially with the Mii outfit, profile pic, and Spirit whom previously was only referenced in Smash games.

Want
100%
One of my most wanted characters. A proper Puzzle rep is still lacking though. The series has been references a few times in Smash since Melee than just an item but also in one of Kirby's stone moves and the flower effect.


Jomosensual is referring to Arle or any other Sega rep specifically since she is a SEGA rep which Joker is another Sega rep. Not Lip.

Dammit, i was wondering if that was right when I posted it

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Lip
Chance: 0%
Probably the character who has the most things going against her so far. She got costumed, the lip stick's already an item and most importantly, she's very obscure and unpopular outside- and maybe even inside Japan. If the much more popular Takamaru, who had his game released on the eshop and was an assist last instalment, couldn't be upgrated for that same reason then neither should. In the DLC period her miniscule chances have become even lower considering people are way less likely to spend 5-6 bucks on someone like her compared to characters from recent beloved games or those who can be considered icons who alot of people grew up with. Lip is neither.

Want: 0%
No interest. I am not that huge on puzzle games and Tetris attack is no exception. Even if I ever get in the mood to pick that up someday, it's going to be the western Yoshi-themed version, who appeals to me far more.

Ray: 2.78%

Hollow Knight x5

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Not Daisy

Chance: 0.1%
Want: 0%

This character is already represented in Smash by both a Sprirt and a Mii costume, and therefore has basically no chance.

Oh sorry, I thought we were still on yesterday.

Anyway, Lip’s got pretty well all of the problems that Chibi-Robo did with the existing in game, but now adds obscurity, region exclusivity, and her item is in game as well. Beyond that, she’s not a fighter - her original game involves her being a .jpg in the back of a block puzzle.

I’m not interested in her design, and I don’t particularly like that game genre either. DLC needs to sell, and I doubt she’s iconic enough to make a splash outside of hardcore nintendo fans and her stereotypical target audience (who will only care about her for her pink and flowers).

Nom: More DLC x5

 

[PsychoJosh]

Lip
Chance: 50%
Want: 100%

My thoughts on the chances for her appearing since last time have diminished mainly because of Reggie's implication that the DLC will be mostly third party newcomers. But I still think she's got a shot. Now that she has a Mii Costume, a Spirit, and her series is officially recognized as Panel de Pon in the music/franchise listing, I think her presence in Smash is stronger than ever and the next step is to make her playable. She's come so far for someone constantly derided as an obscure Japan-only pick. I don't think any of the stuff she has in the game counts as "deconfirmation". Other playable characters in the game also have spirits and Mii costumes, so the fact that she does is irrelevant and doesn't hurt her chances whatsoever.

My desire for her to be in the game has not changed. I will always support Lip with all my heart. She is a fantastic character who has all the makings of a popular and enduring mascot if they would just allow her game to shine in the west. Tetris Attack/PDP is easily my favorite puzzle game of all time, and I think she really deserves her chance in the spotlight. I think she could be an incredibly fun character with unique mechanics if done right, and Nintendo's first true puzzle game representative (Dr. Mario doesn't count).

Nominating Earthworm Jim x5

 

[N. Onymous]

I'd like to encourage everyone who's walking in, saying "Lip - 0% chance, 0% want, I have no personal interest in her so she should never be in Smash Bros., ever," and leaving, to check out my Lip support thread, just to see why people support her and to get an idea of how she might play in an official Smash game. I know it'll be hard to change people's minds, but that doesn't mean I shouldn't try.

 

[PeridotGX]

Lip

Chance - 0.33%. She's pretty obscure and already has a mii Costume. It doesn't bode well.

Want - Abstain

Noms: Grovyle x5

 

[Troykv]

Lip is one of these character that have a hard time appearing in Smash Bros thanks to their lack of recent appeal (at least the brand itself and her main item aren't exactly that obscure); having a Mii Custome and being represented with her main weapon as a common item can be quite a bad sign though... At least she isn't an AT for the purporses of this thread... so...

Chance: 5%

Many things against her; but don't enough to consider it an impossibility.

Want: 55%

She looks quite fun xD. I don't know about her moveset potential, but she looks appealing as a very cute character with pretty powers.

____

Predictions:

Ray: 3.2%

Nominations:

Reimu Hakurei x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Lip

Chance - 0% - Takamaru, a character with similar if not more popularity in it's day, was similarly rejected because his games were never localized, making him lack international appeal in the eyes of Sakurai. As a result, while he may be referenced in Smash, Sakurai does not believe he is popular enough to make into a character. Lip is most likely the same in my eyes, and I don't think we will ever have another Fire Emblem on our hands.

Want - 80% - I like the idea of her getting in. I want to see how a puzzle game would work in Smash, and either her or Arle Nadja would be it.


Predictions

Ray series - 2.45% - Things look bleak...


Nominations

Dark Matter X5