Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Icedragonadam]

My condolences to the people affected by the Earthquake in Japan.

I'll hold off my prediction until the new date is confirmed.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Sorry for keeping this day extended, we will revisit this once a new date is announced. I did not want to shift into a new day quickly since I was did not want to shaft characters.

Ken and Black Shadow today, predict Black Knight and Skull Kid.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Ken

Chance: 60%
Want: 50%

He's the original Echo Fighter, and he's been hinted at by Vergeben. But of course it's not guaranteed.

Black Shadow

Chance: 30%
Want: 90%

Sadly, there aren't any hints or potential evidence for his conclusion but being an echo takes much less time to develop so who knows. And F-Zero really needs a new rep after being snubbed for 4 games so far.

Black Knight Prediction: 33.33%
Skull Kid Prediction: 56.55%

Nominate Concept: More Than 5 Unique Newcomers x5

 

[Sari]

Ken

Chance: 80%
Appeared in most of the leaks and is essentially the original echo character.

Want: 45%
I'll be glad if he gets in but I'm not a fan of Ryu's moveset. Also Ken is one of my most hated characters to fight in the Street Fighter games.

-----

Black Shadow

Chance: 3%
Not as requested as other characters. With the limited roster spots I just can't see him making the cut.

Want: Abstain
I know very little about him.

-----

Chance predictions:

Black Knight: 23.69%
Skull Kid: 83,77%

-----

Nominations:
Terry Bogard x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Ken Masters

Chance: 50%
I’d say it’s a question of ‘will it or won’t it happen’, given he has nothing going against him. I can’t imagine Sakurai formalizing the term Echo Fighter without Ken popping into his head at some point. He is ideal, as he is both extremely similar yet subtly different. He is also an iconic character. The only drawback he has is that maybe Street Fighter could get a second rep like Chun-Li or M. Bison, but that seems unlikely. (How about M. Bison as a boss tho?)

However, he doesn’t really have anything going for him either. He isn’t really popular or highly demanded. There are also some who’ve said Akuma makes more sense as the Echo, giving us more villains for this supposed Spirits mode, and Akuma has been known to feature in crossovers, so there’s that.

Want: 90%
Let’s get the OG clone in here. Any iconic character is a Smash bro in my book.

Black Shadow

Chance: 25%
Not too shabby. I’m feeling we’ll get a ton of Echoes to pad out the roster. An F-Zero character has been demanded for a while, and with Goroh out of the running Shadow has no competition. There’s also the fact that Ganondorf’s moveset’s changed slightly, and with Sakurai being a strong proponent for moveset preservation he might choose to dump it onto Shadow (an idea that has been thoroughly discussed amongst fans and that has given B. Shadow most of his popularity, possibly enough to be noticed as an Echo). Really, the stars seem to be aligning for this badass villain to make himself known.

Want: 100%
And damn well he should. From the games to the anime, Black Shadow is a huge presence and an intimidating villain. Just make him a ****ing Echo Sakurai, throw F-Zero fans a bone. (Really, him and Ninten being revealed as Echoes would be just as hype for me as any newcomer. Then again, Daisy, Chrom and Dark Samus were also major hype for me).

Predictions:
Black Knight: 46%
Severely overrated for a character that had no discussion around him before August 8th. I love him, but he is not as likely as people claim him to be.
Skull Kid: 78%
Most evidence (both real and made up) seems to be pointing to this guy’s inclusion, potentially as soon as the next Direct.

Nominations: NintenX5

 

[NintenRob]

Ken
Chance 59%
If we're getting third party echoes, Ken should definitely be up there.
Want 30%
I've said before I'm unsure how to feel about Third Party echoes, but we are getting them do may as well role with it (as long as its limited to echoes), still would prefer Nintendo echoes

Black Shadow
Chance 14%
I don't really think it's all that likely, I just think priority would
Want 40%
Not my first echo choice, but could be cool.

Nominate no more stages x5

 

[Lupin Red]

Ken

Chance: 50%
One of the two most likely 3rd party echo fighters we can have in Smash Ultimate, alongside Shadow. Ken is the original "Echo" character in Street Fighter, so it makes sense for them to add him in. However, he has some competition with his fellow Shotoclone, Akuma. Unlike Ken, Akuma has appeared in more crossover appearances (the recent being Tekken 7), so he has a slight edge over Ken. But still, he's most likely to get in as an Echo Fighter of Ryu.

Want: 25%
I would rather have Akuma as an Echo of Ryu than Ken. Aside from appearing in more crossover appearances, Akuma has some original moves of his own, such as the Zanku Hadouken, Demon Flip and Raging Demon.

Black Shadow

Chance: 15%
I don't think we're getting another F-Zero character this time around. The only character in that series that would be playable is Samurai Goroh, but he's back to being an Assist Trophy, so I don't think Black Shadow has much of a chance here.

Want: Abstain
I really don't know much about Black Shadow nor do I care about him.

Nominations:
Jin Kazama x5

 

[VexTheHex]

Ken
Chance - 75%
I'm struggle with wanting to say he is close to a lock combined with thinking Richter may not come with a whole bunch of others. Ken is however iconic as a clone or echo for Street Fighter and has quite a bit of history. I think it boils down to how much Sakurai ends up padding the roster with echoes, but I think Ken is pretty far up there on the list for that.
Want - 52%
He's alright, nothing to fancy for me. I barely played the 3DS Smash and didn't bother with DLC, so I don't know how much I'll like the move set. However he is one of those characters that if including 3rd party echoes... he just makes sense to add. So it might feel weird to leave him out.

Black Shadow
Chance - 35%
Most of the rallying I have ever seen for the guy was for him to adopt Ganondorf's move set. I don't really know if he has the popularity or iconic status to pull him into Smash. If Sakurai is pushing Ganondorf away from Captain Falcon, it's possible. But I don't think it's super likely. I do however think he is mid list and could slip in.
Want - 30%
There's quite a few others echoes that I find more interesting (Medusa, Shadow, Gardevoir for Mewtwo/Gothitelle for Gardevoir) or more deserving (Isabelle, Ken, Tails, Ms Pacman) than this guy. I wouldn't hate his addition though, but it's not something that has me overly interested.


Noms 5x Gardevoir

 

[Deleted member]

Ken Masters
Chance: 90%
Want: 50%

With being in, having the original clone in fighting games is a given.
Otherwise I'm indifferent towards him.

Black Shadow
Chance: 55%
Want: 65%

Not as sure with him though, given his series's current hiatus.
Though he has a noticeable amount of requests from Japan due to his voice acting in the anime made by Norio Wakamoto, and he would be the new so it's an okay on my book.


Noms:
Metroidvania-like adventure mode x5

Black Knight prediction: 36.84%
Skull Kid prediction: 52.31%

 

[Nemuresu]

Ken:
Chance: 80%-In other times, I would've thought people just bandwagoned on him because of the whole Echo fighter concept, but not anymore. Considering Vergeben says that he's in, I suppose it is very likely now. Just not giving him 100% because I know Verg can get things wrong at times.
Want: 90%-Ken is one of my favourite characters in the Street Fighter series. Though I slightly hesitate it if only because he will probably not have the super-cool Shippu Jinrai Kyakku super as Final Smash, and because japanese voices are probably going to get locked too, and I don't want to change language just for that.

Black Shadow:
Chance: 5%-There aren't good reasons to think that we can have another F-Zero character by this point. Black Shadow was just there for people who wanted Ganondorf to stop being Captain Falcon clone.
Want: 1%-I would've been wanted him had 'Dorf lost his Falcon specials, but since he still keeps them, there's no good reasons to want him anymore. Though I love Norio Wakamoto's voice, but that doesn't compesate for anything.

Nomination: DLC character pass x5

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Ken want: 0%

Ken should be an alt costume for Ryu.

Black Shadow want: 1%

In case the next Smash is still controlled by asshole(s) who don't want to lose the Falcondorf moveset, Black Shadow being in this game makes him more likely to be in the next game, and thus an option for taking said moveset away from Ganondorf.

Nominations:

FE Spear User x5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Ken:

Chance: 80% - Incredibly likely for reasons everyone know.

Want: 60% - Not a huge fan of him or just the Ryu moveset in general, but with the echo fighter concept he's pretty much obligatory, he's the original clone afterall.

Black Shadow:

Chance: 15% - A little bit of support for him throughout the years might benefit him, but I can't see him being a priority even among echo fighters.

Want: 30% - Ganondorf fills the evil Captain Falcon role, somehow.

 

[NintenRob]

Ken want: 0%

Ken should be an alt costume for Ryu.

Black Shadow want: 1%

In case the next Smash is still controlled by *******(s) who don't want to lose the Falcondorf moveset, Black Shadow being in this game makes him more likely to be in the next game, and thus an option for taking said moveset away from Ganondorf.

Nominations:

FE Spear User x5

What difference does it make if he's an alternate costume or echo? The only difference would likely be that he can show a bit more of his personality (and maybe his up special to be multi hit to better match his own [I think?]). Do want to be rude just genuinely curious.

 

[ProfPeanut]

Abstaining today.


Nominations:
Guzma x5

 

[BlueMagician]

Ken

Chance: 55%
It's basically down to if Capcom is lenient enough, because otherwise he could be in easily. As Ryu is based around his SF2 appearance with some extra, it's reasonable that Ken would be in a similar SF2-with-extra appearance. Only real question is what they would replace down-B with. His main rival is, amusingly, Evil Ryu, who would be the easiest to implement. edit: bumping up chance because SF2 music and trophies

Want : 75%
Ken's a cool guy and Ryu's trusty friend with a good personality in most of his appearances. I neither hate nor like the SF5 outfit, but I think they'd choose a classic look. I really like his Alpha series appearance.

Black Shadow:

Chance: 5%
Captain Falcon's rival who may or may not fight like Falcon. I don't expect an echo considering the somewhat different body builds, I have no idea how far they're willing to go with that but I'm not counting on it.

Want: abstain%
Not familiar

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Ken
Chance: 90%
Pretty likely with third party echoes being a thing and also being mentioned by Verg.

Want: Abstain

Black Shadow
Chance: 30%
Makes perfect sense to dumb Ganon's old moveset on and had some popularity but this will depend on how much more echoes we're getting.

Want: 35%
My prefered character with the word ''Shadow'' in his name.

Skull Kid: 63.37%
Black Knight: 25.82%

Punch Out newcomer x5

Ken want: 0%

Ken should be an alt costume for Ryu.

Literally what would be the upside to having Ken as an alt as opposed to an echo?

In case the next Smash is still controlled by *******(s)

Edgy
>Reads sig
Uhm yeah... that's getting a yikes from me.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Blond Ryu

Chance: 50%
Want: 35%

Ken really seems pretty likely - about as likely as Isabelle for me.

He’d be a ridiculously easy (and obvious) echo of Ryu, and Richter’s opened the door to third-party echoes. I can’t really make an argument for not including it, especially since Street Fighter’s also getting lots of music love too.

Still, Ryu’s moveset is meh to me. Not altogether opposed, but please don’t bring that gross banana-hair version (SFV?). The fake leak one looked alright.

Batman

Chance: 10%
Want: 30%

Much higher of a want than I’d normally go, but I take it we’re assuming echoes here. Otherwise, no thanks.

F-Zero’s dead. I know they don’t want it to be, but it hasn’t been seen since before Brawl. The only reason to put him in would be to make a quick echo.

Then there’s the other thing - people always wanted somewhere to dump Ganondorf’s moveset so he could get something more appropriate. As we’ve seen the Dorf has mostly the same kit save sword moves for Smashes, it’s not likely they’re going to just change it around like that.

And do we really need another Falcon? At least Shadow looks cool.

Oh, I forgot - Black Shadow is a villain so obviously 100% he’s in. [/sarcasm]

Prediction for Black Knight: 24.3%
Prediction for Skull Kid: 52.4%

Nom: Dovahkiin x5

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

What difference does it make if he's an alternate costume or echo? The only difference would likely be that he can show a bit more of his personality (and maybe his up special to be multi hit to better match his own [I think?]). Do want to be rude just genuinely curious.

Literally what would be the upside to having Ken as an alt as opposed to an echo?

Less time devoted to a characted I don't really care about in Smash. Basically everyone wanted this before echoes were revealed.

 

[NintenRob]

Less time devoted to a characted I don't really care about in Smash. Basically everyone wanted this before echoes were revealed.

But the time difference would honestly seem negligible, I doubt you'd even have time to make another echo if you're still going out in the effort to give his own model and unique voice clips, it'd literally just be a few more unique animations for taunts and stuff and a tiny bit of extra programming so he has his own records. It just seems weird.

 

[Artix]

Ken

Chance: 75%
Ken is one of the more likely third-party echo fighters out there and Vergeben mentioned him. But I won't go higher than 75% because I still don't believe in leaks. But still, out of all the Echo Fighters we might get, Ken surely is one of those fighters.

Want: 90%
I main Ken in SFV and I really loved the character. He's the polar opposite of Ryu in terms of personality and I really liked that. I wouldn't mind him being included in Smash since he's the original Echo Fighter.

Black Shadow

Chance: 30%
If we're getting someone from F-Zero, it's going to be either him or Samurai Goroh. And since Goroh is an AT in this game, that only leaves Black Shadow as our only option. But even then, I don't think Sakurai would prioritize a character from a dead series, plus he has little to no support in the Ballot, so his chances are quite low at the moment.

Want: Abstain
I have little knowledge about Black Shadow and that came from the F-Zero anime.

Nominations:
Jin Kazama x5

 

[ShinyRegice]

Since I read a post warning us about likely leaks due to the Direct's delay, I'm not gonna read any other post on Smashboards so if I give a middle or low chance score to a character that has been leaked because of that it's normal it's because I'm not aware of it.

For the ratings:
Ken chances: 68%
If more third-party series get new Echoes I always thought that Street Fighter was an obvious choice due to the series being a fighting game with a large cast, and combined with Ryu's clone history in his series it makes even more sense. Ken seems like the most likely choice in that regard due to being the only SF character besides Ryu to get any representation in Smash 4 and being hinted at by Vergeben (I know I said I wasn't aware of leaks but I'm referring specifically to leak that potentially appeared after the initial airing date of the Direct).

Ken want: 45%
Mostly indifferent. He makes perfect sense for an historical perspective due to being the grandfather of clones in fighting games, but at the same time he increases the risk of getting a character on random with unconventional commands you must particularly invest in to use well.

Black Shadow chances: 10%
There could be some appeal in having a character with characteristics closer to how Ganondorf was in Melee, but since it looks like Echoes must share the same basic physics with the original character, it will prevent to accomplish much of this appeal. Otherwise he could still get in, but really most fan demand for him is about copying Ganondorf's old moveset.

Black Shadow want: 30%
Indifferent. I also wonder how he could be balanced if he has more power than Falcon but can't alter his physics to be slower.

Nominating:
New item: Beast Ball x5

 

[skylanders fan]

Ken
chance
Street fighter is known for ryu clones and well that fits with Ken perfectly. I feel like after shadow he wouls make the most sense to have a 3rd party echo and would be worthy of a spot in Smash.
70%

want
Ken would be great to have as not only is he iconic (not to ryu level but still people will know who he is) but makes sense as a echo. The only reason I'm not at 100% want is that I would rather have Akuma before ken.
85%

Black Shadow
chance
Well his chances are based on if F Zero got enough nominating on the Ballot or if the Ganondorf change moveset will lead to a Black Shadow echo. I think he can happen but I think its more of a toss up that depends on how many echo's they want to have in this game.
50%

want
I think Fzero needs more reps. And this would be a nice way of doing it by giving us another rep for the only series in original smash to have only 1 rep it needs to happen but I think we may get it this time.
100%

nominiating
rick coo and kine x5

 

[zeonie888]

Ken
Chance: 65%
Ken is the original echo fighter! With Richter being annouced there's a chance that there will be an echo for Ryu. If there was a choice between him and Akuma I have a feeling that they might go with Ken first.

Want: 70%
It would be cool to see how he'd play in game.

Black Shadow
Chance: 10%
F-Zero hasn't had a game for some time but I'm not gonna write him off completely with Gannondorf having different moves and leaving a slight chance for an echo of Captain Falcon.

Want: 20%
I don't have many feeling for this guy but wouldn't mind if he was added.

 

[Rockaphin]

Ken Master:
Chance: 80%
Want: 100%

I've supported Ken before Echo Fighters were a thing. Ken is my favorite Street Fighter character.

Black Shadow:
Chance: 50%
Want: 30%

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Ken

Chance: 50%

With Echo Fighters being a thing, Ken would make the most sense to utilize this feature. He is famous for being the "clone" to Ryu and most fans wont object to his inclusion on such. Slap on some fire to his Shoryuken and you can call it a day. Ease of inclusion aside, while he's not high on the ballot for certain, he undeniably is a big name in gaming and beloved by fans as well.

Want: 100%

I'm not fond of clones, and I am still disappointed that we will be getting more. However, Ken is the exception as he's essentially the original Echo/Clone Fighter. He's earned his spot in gaming history and would be fun to have more Street Fighter in Smash.

-----

Black Shadow

Chance: 5%

F-Zero has been dormant for quite some time now. With the idea of newcomers being more limited, focus will most-likely be on bigger names or those who score really high on the ballot. I doubt Black Shadow lands in either category, Echo or not.

Want: 0%

Like all other F-Zero characters, he doesn't do anything outside of driving a car. That doesn't lend much potential for a fun fighter without Sakurai having to completely make up things out of nowhere. I've heard talks of making him a Falcon or Ganon Echo, which also wouldn't be worth the effort since he never has been all that popular outside of an excuse for fans to justify changing Ganondorf without losing his moveset. Honestly, Captain Falcon will always be fine by himself.

 

[Cetus]

Ken

Chance-80%
Pretty much the perfect clone character and would be a great reference to it.

Want-0%
Not really into Street Fighter and Ken looks pretty boring to me.

Black Shadow

Chance-10%
F-Zero's sorta... Decomposing currently. I guess echos increase the chances but... Eh.

Want-0%
I don't really care for the designs of F-Zero characters and Black Shadow's no exception. Eh...

Nominations-
New Xenoblade Rep-5x

 

[Jomosensual]

Ken:

Chance: 50: Like others have said, he was the original echo fighter, which helps his chances I think. One concern with him I can think of is that I don't remember much buzz with him at all when the smash ballot was going on. I don't think we even knew Ryu was going to be in yet though and we didn't know what echo fighters were yet, so his entire case has been crafted pretty recently.

Want: 40: Ive played some street fighter, but not enough to get any attachment to Ken or any fighters in the game. He would be a nice add to the game though, and while it seems like most new fighters are going to be from the smash ballot, I would like it if a few aren't, and Ken would be a good pick who may have not have gotten a lot of buzz when it was going on but makes a lot of sense to put in the game now

Black shadow:

Chance: 20: same issue that Ken has above. We didn't know what echo fighters were during the ballot, which changes things massively for his chances for smash. FZero seems to be a dead series too, so I don't think he's got much of a chance here

Want: 20: I like Captain Falcon, so I wouldn't mind an alternative version of him I guess. That's pretty much what's keeping Black shadow above a 0 for me. With FZero not having a game out since 2004 I think we're good on reps from that series.

Nomination: Nathan Drake x5

 

[toonito]

Ken:

Chance: 25%
The original player 2 character and possibly the most famous clone in all of gaming. The fact that Chun-Li and Akuma (who makes more sense as Ryu's semi-clone) make it into more crossovers has no bearing on his chances here because of relative ease to make Ken compared to them and Capcom may want to promote different characters for different games. It's also rare for only Ryu and Ken to be the sole SF reps in a crossover game. His chances pre-Ultimate were at 0%, 10% upon the announcement of Echo Fighters, and increased even further upon Richter's announcement. Other than that he's not a lock despite what Vergeben says.

Want: 100%
My most wanted realizable character this time by a significant margin because he's my favorite SF character and the opportunity to have Ryu and Ken in doubles would be amazing. Nintendo's heavy hitters are already in Smash and as a result I'm more excited as to what characters from outside companies Nintendo can bring into Smash. If FE can have 7, possibly 8, reps Street Fighter can have 2.

Black Shadow:

Chance: 30%
1st party character from forgotten franchise who can allegedly use Falcondorf's moveset.

Want: 0%
Not interested in the character personally.

Nominations:
Jin Kazama x5

 

[a smart guy]

Ken:
Chance: 60% While his style has differed from Ryu, in the early games he was fairly similar. He would be a nice addition to the roster, while being an easy clone of Ryu.
Want: 70% Heck yes! I don't really like echoes, but Ken is probably my favorite idea out of them. He just makes sense to me.

Black Shadow:
Chance: 1% I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. Falcondorf is in the game. Period. There's no sense in stealing a moveset that is already being used. The demand for this character solely comes from that concept, and it's unlikely to happen. Not to mention, but F-Zero's last game was on the Gamecube. I hate to break it to people, but Captain Falcon is more of a Smash character than a F-Zero character at this point.
Want: 0% This is one of the few times I dislike a character. Ganondorf is a Captain Falcon clone in this game. We don't need another Captain Falcon clone, and I'm okay with Ganondorf's moveset. They've made it more appropriate, while still being recognizable to a general audience. Hard pass.

Nominations:
No More Stages x5

 

[Tew]

Ken:

Chances: 50%
Hard one, there isn´t really anything pointing against him, nor any clues for his inclusion.
Pros:
A very popular character and likely the best known clone in all fighting games. Now that the fans accepted the former Clones and even want them now, there seem to be more than most expected. We already got 4 new Echos. I saw some expecting less total Newcomers after Sakurai said not to expect too many.
Cons:
While popular, I doubt he got a lot of votes on the Smash Ballot (Echos weren´t a thing back then and if someone voted for a SF character, it probably was Ryu). I also don´t think we will see that many third party Echos. Third party characters are something special and if they just throw in an Echo for everyone, they kinda lose that status (similar to what happened to legendary Pokémon in my opinion). And with Richter and maybe Shadow there would already be 2 Echos for 8 Third Party characters. It doesn´t help that there are also possible fitting Echos for most of the other third partys. Though to be fair, imo he ist he most likely third party Echo after Shadow.

Want: 5%
Never played SF and I also don´t particularly like playing with Ryu. It´s not that I hope Ken doesn´t make it in or that I despise Ken/Ryu, I just couldn´t care less if he makes it in or not.


Black Shadow:

Chances: 23%
Pros:
There might be a slight hint in the new Big Blue Stage. In Brawl you could see the cars from C. Falcon and Black Shadow, but now both of them were changed to Dr. Clash and Mighty Gazelle, two rather weird choices. And their numbers add up to Black Shadow. Could be ingenious foreShadowing or just a coincidence (probably the latter but you never know with Sakurai).
Besides Yoshi (who is kinda part of the Mario Multiverse and whose series also doesn´t really have fitting characters for Smash) all the Smash 64 series have gotten new reps, except for F-Zero. The series might be dead (still hoping), but so is Mother/Earthbound and they still got a new rep.
Furthermore since there might actually be some kind of Hero vs Villain theme going on, his chances are slightly higher imo.
Cons:
Even though Captain Falcon is an icon amongst the Smash community, I don´t think Black Shadow got too much attention on the Ballot. F-Zero is sadly mostly forgotten, especially the casual side of Smash probably isn´t too familiar with it and Black Shadow. And let´s not forget that the younger fans and casual fans probably make up way more percent of the Ballot voters than the fandom. Though then again most of them probably didn´t see the Ballot.
F-Zero didn´t get a new rep in three games and now we might see the least Newcomers in all Smash titles, so why should it be different this time?

Want: 60%
I think F-Zero deserves a Newcomer and it might increase the chances for a new F-Zero game as well. Falcon is really fun to play, so an Echo or Semi Clone could be great (probably would end up slower and more similar to Ganondorf but whatever).



Predictions:
Black Knight: 32%
Skull Kid: 67%

Nominations:
Fjorm: 5x

 

[GoodGrief741]

Ken:

Chances: 50%
Hard one, there isn´t really anything pointing against him, nor any clues for his inclusion.
Pros:
A very popular character and likely the best known clone in all fighting games. Now that the fans accepted the former Clones and even want them now, there seem to be more than most expected. We already got 4 new Echos. I saw some expecting less total Newcomers after Sakurai said not to expect too many.
Cons:
While popular, I doubt he got a lot of votes on the Smash Ballot (Echos weren´t a thing back then and if someone voted for a SF character, it probably was Ryu). I also don´t think we will see that many third party Echos. Third party characters are something special and if they just throw in an Echo for everyone, they kinda lose that status (similar to what happened to legendary Pokémon in my opinion). And with Richter and maybe Shadow there would already be 2 Echos for 8 Third Party characters. It doesn´t help that there are also possible fitting Echos for most of the other third partys. Though to be fair, imo he ist he most likely third party Echo after Shadow.

Want: 5%
Never played SF and I also don´t particularly like playing with Ryu. It´s not that I hope Ken doesn´t make it in or that I despise Ken/Ryu, I just couldn´t care less if he makes it in or not.


Black Shadow:

Chances: 23%
Pros:
There might be a slight hint in the new Big Blue Stage. In Brawl you could see the cars from C. Falcon and Black Shadow, but now both of them were changed to Dr. Clash and Mighty Gazelle, two rather weird choices. And their numbers add up to Black Shadow. Could be ingenious foreShadowing or just a coincidence (probably the latter but you never know with Sakurai).
Besides Yoshi (who is kinda part of the Mario Multiverse and whose series also doesn´t really have fitting characters for Smash) all the Smash 64 series have gotten new reps, except for F-Zero. The series might be dead (still hoping), but so is Mother/Earthbound and they still got a new rep.
Furthermore since there might actually be some kind of Hero vs Villain theme going on, his chances are slightly higher imo.
Cons:
Even though Captain Falcon is an icon amongst the Smash community, I don´t think Black Shadow got too much attention on the Ballot. F-Zero is sadly mostly forgotten, especially the casual side of Smash probably isn´t too familiar with it and Black Shadow. And let´s not forget that the younger fans and casual fans probably make up way more percent of the Ballot voters than the fandom. Though then again most of them probably didn´t see the Ballot.
F-Zero didn´t get a new rep in three games and now we might see the least Newcomers in all Smash titles, so why should it be different this time?

Want: 60%
I think F-Zero deserves a Newcomer and it might increase the chances for a new F-Zero game as well. Falcon is really fun to play, so an Echo or Semi Clone could be great (probably would end up slower and more similar to Ganondorf but whatever).



Predictions:
Black Knight: 32%
Skull Kid: 67%

Nominations:
Fjorm: 5x

It’s interesting that you noticed that fact about the machines, as both Dr. Clash and Mighty Gazelle had pretty big roles in the anime (as the team mechanic and the missing father of the kid sidekick, respectively), and a lot of Black Shadow’s popularity in Japan came from said anime.

Probably a coincidence, but curious nonetheless.

 

[Kotor]

Ken

Chance: 50%
Want: 80%

I'm sort of in agreement with GoodGrief. He's in or he's not. I don't think being "the original clone" would be the primary reason for adding Ken. The two things in favor of Ken is Richter's inclusion suggesting Third-Party franchises can get a second character & can even be a clone. The other is an offhand comment Vergeben made when he dismissed a text leak on GameFaqs for not including Ken. But Ken would be a neat addition to the roster. I wouldn't be upset at it at all. My brother plays Ken in Street Fighter. I'm sure he'd find the idea neat as well.

Black Shadow

Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

Only desire to bring him in is to take Ganondorf's old moveset so the latter could have his own unique moveset. Pre-E3, I saw it as hypocritical of the fandom to be very cut-happy towards the clone characters (), decrying them as being slot wasters while at the same time championing Black Shadow to be added in. I'd rather take Option Z and just cut Ganondorf's old moveset altogether if I really wanted to give Ganondorf a complete overhaul. I don't think Smash has ever done this. The series has just tweaked the clone movesets with each iteration rather than this fan idea that keeps being parroted around.

Has any fighting game added a new character just for the sole reason to take the old moveset of a different character so the latter can have a new moveset? If there's a precedent for it, I could at least understand why people would think Black Shadow would be a good idea. Otherwise, it all comes off to me as a second F-Zero character for the sake of having a second F-Zero character and a villain for the sake of having villains.


Nominations
Black Knight as a boss character x5

 

[aarchak]

Ken

Chance: 40%
Ken seems like a good choice for an echo, but considering he's a third party, it's less likely he'll get in due to licensing, but hey, Richter got in, so it's still somewhat likely.
Want: 80%
I like Ken, and this is the best way to honor him (considering that this was his original role in Street Fighter), plus he could have moves with a few different properties to distinguish himself from Ryu.

Black Shadow

Chance: 30%
He just doesn't seem like he'll get in, but F-Zero is still well-loved and he's popular, so there is still a chance.
Want: 20%
I don't exactly think he should be in, but I guess I wouldn't mind his inclusion.

Nominations

New Xenoblade Rep x5

 

[THE TemporaryFool]

Ken.
Chance: 80% he is truly the original echo fighter. i think he has a chance because of the fact that 3rd parties can have echo fighters.
Want: 100% yesyesyesyesyesyes. He is one of the few echo fighters I actually want.

Black Shadow
Chance: 50% not to certain. He might be included to make for another F-zero rep, but F-zero doesn’t get much attention at all.
Want: 62% F-zero characters are certainly needed, but i would prefer the entire original cast from the snes days.

 

[DaUsername]

Ken
Chance: 99%
Once again, no real reason to doubt Vergeben at this point.
Even then, his inclusion would still make a lot of sense with the fact that he's pretty much the original echo fighter.
Want: 75%
While I'm not that into Street Fighter, I still think he'd be a neat inclusion. Heck, I was actually thinking about making a Ken thread when echo fighters were first announced, but I was lazy and someone beat me to it.
Abstaining from BS.

Skull Kid prediction: 59%
Black Knight prediction: 5.9%
Noms: Nathan Drake x5

 

[axel_]

Ken

Chance: 65%
While he would make sense in hindsight, and has a lot more going for him than other third party Echo Fighters, I think that if another Capcom character gets in it would be someone like Dante instead of Ken.

Want: 90%
More Street Fighter in Smash is always a yes from me, and Ken's personality would be so much fun.

 

[Souldin]

I've written this up whilst sleepy... apologies if my points are but short or messy; my brain isn't working too effectively at the moment.

Ken (Street Fighter series)
Chances: 79%

Unlike the Sonic series, Sakurai seems to like Street Fighter, Ken's origins are effectively that of an Echo Fighter, and there are small tweaks you can do to Ken such as the inclusion of his fire element (effectively as Roy is to Marth, back in the day when we called Echoes by the term Clones).​

Barriers to Ken's inclusion include competition from other Street Fighter characters with the potential to fit in the Echo mould (Akuma, Dan, Sakura; depends on how much Sakurai wants to stretch what an Echo is) as well as how the only 3rd party Echo added so far was for the newly introduced Simon. Such work might not be put retrospectively into the 3rd parties, and at that, priority to an Echo could always go into the other and earlier included Capcom IP, Mega Man (whom Sakurai definitely loves as a series). It was actually kind of hard to think of exact reasons for why Ken might not be in aside from Sakurai's unpredictability, so I do think he's in good standing.​

Want: 18%

Aside from putting down, I'd rather have Dan if we have a Ryu Echo, I'm not sure what else to put. I guess... I have no interest in Ken, but he'd be a logical Echo inclusion and it would be a nice historical call-back to Street Fighter's roots. I'm not a fan of 3rd party inclusions or Echoes so... this will be what I give Ken for Want. I also feel that, as the earlier Capcom inclusion, Mega Man should get an Echo before Ryu does (though I am biased on that given the most likely Echo for Mega Man at this point is Roll, one of my mains in Tatsunoko vs. Capcom).​

Black Shadow (F-Zero series)
Chances: 67%

So on the negative side for Black Shadow's inclusion we have; F-Zero having not had a new entry in ages, in part because of this factor he's unlikely to be a hugely rooted for inclusion, a fair amount of his support comes from rooting for him just so he could de-clone Ganondorf, and F-Zero doesn't look it has a future at this rate.​

The positives though, well aside from Ganondorf not being completely overhauled from the ground-up (unlikely at any rate given Sakurai's mentality), this might be Black Shadow's best shot since the days of Brawl. Villains seem to be all the craze lately and Black Shadow is an important recurring one to his series; a series that has been represented since the first game and has yet to receive a 2nd rep. He's fairly well known (considering the dead status of F-Zero as an IP) thanks to the F-Zero anime and it's infamous Falcon Punch scene, and if not included as an original fighter (despite having the potential) or semi-clone, he makes for an easy to include Captain Falcon echo... or would that be a Ganondorf Echo? The thing is, he'd be easy to include as a blend of Captain Falcon and Ganondorf, surprisingly making the trio more distinct from the Fire Emblem quartet and potentially more so than the Link trio.​

​

On a minor note, there was interest from Nintendo of Europe to get a new F-Zero in the works and there have been those rumours of an effective Star-Fox/F-Zero crossover styled game; interest might be there for a new F-Zero and in turn a new rep to drum up the hype.​

Want: 78%

Like many folks, my initial reason for wanting Black Shadow in the game was to allow Ganondorf to be freed from the basis of a Captain Falcon move-set and to properly represent himself, with Black Shadow standing in. That said, unlike some, I never wanted Black Shadow simply to fill in a clone criteria; I dislike clone inclusions. Whilst taking on the role of being based off of Captain Falcon's move-set, I always envisioned him with unique Special moves, a few unique A attacks, and even a unique mechanic (I really like the idea of an acceleration mechanic, starting off as the slowest fighter but eventually becoming the fastest). The more I thought about Black Shadow, the more unique I felt he could be and more fun.​

​

Of course, other reasons for wanting him to be included is his awesome design, villain representation and F-Zero 2nd rep inclusion. I'm not an F-Zero fan, but from what I have seen of him, I like.​

​

I'll be disappointed if he is in as an Echo, because we'd be getting him in the game... whilst Ganondorf's basis is still derived from Captain Falcon. That said, I wouldn't be surprised, and at least that trio would distinguish themselves more than the 4 Marths.​

C'mon Yuri... let's get you voted before this game comes out:
Nominations: x5 Fatal Frame Protagonist

 

[RealPokeFan11]

KEN
Chance: 75%
Want: 50%
He's "the original echo character" and where clones/echoes got their start. With Sakurai over saturating the game with echo characters, the chances are very high. I personally don't use Ryu but won't be mad if he makes it in. I just want him to vary a little from Ryu.

BLACK SHADOW
Chance: 50%
Want: 60%
I personally don't care about echo characters at all, but I do play Captain Falcon quite a lot. As long as he has more diversity from Falcon, *cough cough Ganondorf* he would be a nice addition.

Predictions:
Skull Kid: 80%
Black Knight: 25%

Nominations: Xurkitree x5

 

[smileMasky]

Ken
Chance: 75%
With 3rd party echoes being a thing and all why not have the OG clone come to smash? Either way it's gong to be a lost opportunity if this one is missed. Though I will say this he's the Fire and Kicks Ryu. So there will be a lot of deviations on his specials.
Want: 50%
He would be cool to shake the meta as will Chrom being a IMHO better roy.

Black Shadow
Chance: 50%
It's a bit iffy on this one because F-Zero has 1 rep and a lot of the OG 12 are kind of getting their villains in this game. Getting old Ganondorf's move set may just make this character take a sour spot. But if it were to mix other character moveset or be original then I think it may happen. Though it leans on Echo more than anything.

Want: 50%
Like above it really depends on how much of a feel of the character will be if he's an echo. If he is unique than that would be something.
Nomination Django x5

 

[Erureido]

Abstaining from Black Shadow.

Ken

Chance: 80%

Verge did imply he's coming, but other than that, he does have some other notable credentials that make him quite likely. Ken is the original Echo fighter, and with Sakurai going all out with Echo Fighters for this installment, I think Ken is looking pretty likely.

Want: 100%

Back when I first learned Ryu was coming to Smash through that leak, I wanted Ken to be added as an alternate costume for Ryu considering how their movesets are virtually alike. Heck, when I came up with my reveal trailer idea for Ryu back then, I even imagined Ken showing up at the end of it as the "added surprise" of the trailer.

When I learned about the Echo Fighters, I thought it'd be great to see Ken in Smash as a Ryu Echo. It makes sense when you look into Ken's legacy, and character-wise, I like Ken a lot. I'm all in for seeing him in Smash.

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Predictions

Skull Kid (The Legend of Zelda): 76.15%

He'll go up quite considerably since he still hasn't been confirmed as an AT, and there's the whole deal about the Moon supposedly taking his place as the AT for Majora's Mask.

Black Knight (Fire Emblem): 12.65%

A very popular Fire Emblem character and one of the most popular FE villains who even got a Mii Costume in Smash 4, but he doesn't seem requested enough.

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Nominations

Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney): x5