Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[DivineWrath45]

Isabelle

Chance: 80%
I'm pretty sure Isabelle might get in at some point since she's basically the face of Animal Crossing and a very popular character, as well. However, it may depend whether Sakurai wants to add her or not, but since her AT hasn't showed up yet, I think that's a sign of things to come.

Want: 50%
Eh, I'm not really interested about her, but I wouldn't mind if she is in the game. Animal Crossing really needs some recognition from Smash and I believe Isabelle fits the bill.

Shadow

Chance: 65%
Shadow is one of the most popular character of the Sonic franchise and given that third-party echoes can be a thing, I'd say he might get in. However, third-party slots are very limited in the base roster and this could hurt Shadow a bit, but if Sakurai took notice of him, then there's a chance he might let Shadow in.

Want: 80%
I'm a fan of Shadow ever since he first appeared in Sonic Adventure 2. Like Chrom, he's gonna have some different moves from Sonic, such as using Chaos Control or Chaos Blast, also his running animation is different from Sonic (he skates instead of running like normal). It would definitely make me happy if he got in.

Nominations:
Jin Kazama x5

 

[MrRoidley]

The points are for both Isabelle and Shadow:

Chances - 99%
the only characters I call "locks", the only I call "shoo ins". For various reasons, such as popularity and being mysteriously absent so far. Shadow will be an Echo for sure, Isabelle I have my doubts. The missing 1% is just in case if I'm absolutely surprised and they're still Assist Trophies, bc you know, you can never be fully sure

Want - 90%
They both aren't my ultra top most wanted characters, but I'd be lying if I wouldn't be really happy seeing both

 

[PapillonXtreme]

Isabelle

Chance: 75%
Isabelle is one of the most likely Echo Fighters to be included in Smash Ultimate's base roster. She's so popular that she became the face of the Animal Crossing series and her game, New Leaf, was a huge success, so I'm pretty confident that she'll get in.

Want: 90%
Isabelle is one of my most wanted Echo Fighters in Smash, alongside Shadow and Ken. That would make me happy if she got in somehow and I wouldn't be surprised at all if she didn't.

Shadow

Chance: 70%
Another Echo Fighter that is most likely to get in, ever since Richter was announced. Like Isabelle, Shadow's very popular among Sonic fans and he's been highly requested by them as well. But, seeing how third-party characters have a limited slot in the base roster, I think it's really up to Sakurai whether he feels like adding Shadow at all.

Want: 85%
Like I said, he's one of my most wanted Echo Fighters in Smash Ultimate. He would definitely be an Echo Fighter of Sonic, but the only difference is that he has some Chaos attacks as his unique move. Still, it would make me happy if he got in Smash.

Nominations:
Jin Kazama x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ok so update on the front page. I am working on it, I should have a big update tomorrow. Unfortunately, hardware issues and personal issues kept me busier than I thought. Though classes start up tomorrow, I have a lot of down tome so I will try to piece together the front page updates then. I am sorry for yet another delay, but I will have a major revamp coming up tomorrow and a bunch of catch up calcs later. Once I am all caught up, we will hopefully get nice graphics for top ten of chance and want, even if putting in images is hard.

Just as a reminder, here is the schedule

Day 142 - Isaac and Felix
Day 143 - Isabelle and Shadow
Day 144 - Porky and Masked Man
Day 145 - Ken and Black Shadow
Day 146 - Black Knight and Skull Kid
Day 147 - Banjo & Kazooie and Geno
Day 149 - Lloyd Irving and Heihatchi
Day 150 - Bandana Dee and Magalor
Day 151 - Dixie Kong and Shantae
Day 152 - Hilda and Impa

I messed up on the days, so we are actually are on Day 142, so my apologies on that.

Now for my ratings.

Isabelle

100% Chance
Abstain Want

Honestly even not counting the fact she got leaked, Isabelle has everything going for her. She is easily the biggest character that is not in smash right now that is first party. Hell, you could argue that she is bigger than Ridley or K Rool. Honestly she is one of the few things I am super confident in, alongside a Gen 7 pokemon and a character we are going to rate later on. Even if you discount relevancy, Isabelle has had her assist MIA, which is a big deal. Every piece of info leads me to believe she is a lock.

As for want, I honestly do not care much. I am not a big Animal Crossing fan, but I plan to pick up New Leaf. I honestly never got into the series.

Shadow
85% Chance

What interesting times. If I went back to the first day of this game and said that people thought Shadow the Hedgehog was a lock, I would have been seen as crazy. Nowadays, everything looks in favor of the edgelord. His assist is MIA. While you can argue it was MIA from the demo due to it potentially interfering with physics too much (Ashley likely was MIA for similar reasons), the fact that Sonic got a new assist trophy is weird. Sonic had Shadow as an assist trophy since Brawl, getting a new assist with Shadow MIA is weird. Shadow also is the second most popular sonic character. Period. I can tell that helped him earn brownie points. Furthermore Chrom and Dark Samus quell any worries about a Shadow echo; he can have the animation and one or two different attacks.

However, I do not see Shadow as a lock. I can not explain why, but I do not have that feeling I do with Isabelle. I mean I would bet he would be in, but I do not know if he is a lock.

100% Want

I own the goddamn support thread. Shadow is a character I always found cool. I remember being a fan of him while playing Sonic Adventure 2 and Sonic Heroes as a kid in elementary school. He is nostalgic for me.

So yeah, time to rate Porky and the Masked man yall.

 

[Sari]

Porky

Chance: 5%
Decently popular villain who appeared in Brawl, and the closest thing to his home stage (New Pork City) is returning. Sadly that's all he has going for him in regards to his chances. With the limited roster spots I just can't see him making the cut.

Want: 70%
Aside from echos (and Skull Kid), I think Porky would be the next best antagonist to add to Smash. The villains in Smash are either light-hearted (Bowser, K. Rool, etc.) or just plain evil (Ganondorf, Ridley, etc.). Porky would be a great combination of both considering his childish personality and all the atrocities he committed in Mother 3. Having him utilize his mech would be great and he has a ton of moveset potential from the Mother games as well as his boss-fight in Brawl.

-----

Masked Man

Chance: 1%
Porky's chances are already limited and AFAIK the Masked Man is nowhere near as popular as him. There is no way the Masked Man would be picked over the series' most well-known antagonist (well, maybe second well-known after Giygas).

Want: 20%
Could be cool but I'd prefer Porky as the next non-echo Mother rep.

-----

Chance predictions:

Ken: 72.87%
Black Shadow: 9.31%

-----

Nominations:
Terry Bogard x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Isabelle/Shadow pre-Porky/Masked Man

Ninten x338
Terry Bogard x327
Jin Kazama x320
Django (Boktai) x295
Reinhardt Gets a Trophy x290
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x285
Rowlet x270

Over 200

Concept: Hanafuda Character x257
Gardevoir x250
Concept: Disconfirmed Characters as DLC x230
Thwomp x226
Linkle x225
Ray (Custom Robo) x217
Nathan Drake x215
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x203

200 - 151

Balloon Fighter x190
DeMille x188
Papyrus x180
Amaterasu x175
Concept: More than five unique newcomers (excl. Ridley/Daisy/Inkling) x170
No More Stages x168
Louie x160
Tsubasa Oribe x160
Concept: All-Star Versus x158
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x155
Fire Emblem Three Houses Protagonist x155

150 - 101

Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x150
Rick/Coo/Kine x149
Concept: Metroidvania-like Adventure Mode x131
Stage: Poke Floats x130
Fjorm (Fire Emblem) x130
Item: Beast Ball x127
2B x126
Barbara the Bat x122
Concept: Punch Out Newcomer x125
Klonoa x117
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x115
Concept: Pikmin Newcomer x115
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x114
Project Zero/Fatal Frame Protagonist x112
Raiden (Metal Gear) x105
Susie Haltmann x104
Daroach x102
Tora & Poppi x102
Zeraora (Pokemon) x101

100 - 51

Edelgard x100
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x96
Viewtiful Joe x95
Gooey x94
Concept: Only 4-6 newcomers for base roster x90
Dovahkiin x90
Reimu Hakurei x90
Guzma (Pokémon) x85
Veronica x73
Yu Narakumi x71
Frank West x70
9-Volt x67
Item: Breidablik x65
Toon Zelda x64
Endou Mamoru x62
Chorus Kids x61
Concept: Historical Character x60
Slime x58
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Character x55
Concept: Wars Characters x53

50 - 25

Takumi (Fire Emblem) x50
Black Knight as a boss character x50
Rhythm Girl x50
Silvally x48
[Rerate] Spyro x45
Hilda (The Legend of Zelda) x40
Concept: Unique newcomer with low support (less than 20 supporters on Smashboards) x40
Earthworm Jim x39
Stage: Ultra Space x35
Assist Trophy: Chun-Li x35
Adeleine x34
Concept: Xenoblade newcomer x30
Donbe and Hikari (Shin Onigashima) x29
Dixie Kong & Kiddy Kong x25
Blacephalon (Pokemon) x25
Sans as a boss character x25

Under 25

Master Chief x20
Concept: Break the Targets & Board the Platforms stage builder x20
[Rerate] Concept: Zelda newcomer x20
Sub-Zero x17
Concept: Modern Kirby Stage (Post Kirby Air Ride) x15
Concept: Custom Moves return x15
Concept: Custom Alternate Colors x15
Alexandra Roivas x15
Kat & Ana x15
Ryuhi (Flying Dragon) x10
Metal Sonic x10
Dr. Lobe (Big Brain Academy) x10
Cross (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x10
Break the Targets x10
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x10
Concept: Dragon Quest content x10
[Rerate] Cranky Kong x10
Leo (Fire Emblem) x10
Big Boss x10
Volleyball Girl (NES Volleyball) x8
[Rerate] Excitebiker x6
Stage: Gyromite Stage x5
Nia (Hyrule Warriors) x5
Concept: Valve Newcomer x5
Concept: SR388 Stage x5
Concept: Playable Indie Character x5
Blaze the Cat x5
Alm x5
[Rerate] Octolings x5
[Rerate] Gengar x5
Yandere Chan (Yandere Simulator) x5
Concept: Team Rocket as a Pokémon Trainer Echo x5
Cooking Mama x5
Playable Master Hand x5
Joker (Persona) x5
Concept: DLC character pass x5
Zeke (Xenoblade 2) x5
Pam (Stardew Valley) x5
Xurkitree (Pokémon) x5
King Hippo x4
[Rerate] Ayumi Tachibana x4
Concept: New Yoshi item x4
Diskun x1
Item: Wumpa Fruit x1

Concept: Fire Emblem spear user crosses 200 nominations.

Zeraora squeaks past 100 noms.

Donbe and Hikari pass the 25 nom mark.

New characters: Zeke (from Xenoblade 2), Pam (from Stardew Valley) and Xurkitree, each with five nominations. Also with 5 nominations is a new concept, DLC character pass ( Nemuresu am I correct in assuming this is to be sort of a season pass?)

RealPokeFan11 Every person gets 5 nominations per day. As such, only 5 of yours were counted.

Smashoperatingbuddy123 Black Shadow is scheduled to be rated, so your nominations were not counted.

 

[Jomosensual]

Porky;

Chance: 20: I'm not sure how on earth you make him work for smash. If they can figured it out, great. I'd probably love to play as him because he'd be really different, but i dont see it happening. Avoiding going the full 0 because if there is another Earthbound character getting in he's the leading candidate, but it's probably not happening.

Want: 60: I don't really care about the Earthbound/Mother series, and since it's basically dead I don't really care to see them get another character in, but I think there's a really cool character concept in here if they can figure out how to make it work. While I don't really want another Earthbound character in the game, Porky would have a really unique concept and for that alone the scales tip in his favor for my personal tastes.

Masked Man:

Chance: 1: He's not getting in. Behind Porky on depth chart most likely and is in a dead series. Just don't see it happening. Leaving the door a crack open because there could be a chance he gets in as an echo of Lucas or Ness if the devs give out more echo slots than I expect, but with Porky also having been in Brawl I would think that he would be the next Earthbound character to get in, leaving the Masked Man out in the cold. I don't think he was that requested either, so things don't look great for him.

Want: 0: I don't really see anything to convince me he should get in. Porky would be a cooler and unique character, while Masked Man would give us another Lucas or Ness. I don't really think we need another Earthbound character in the game either unless they can figure out how to make them different from the rest of the roster, and Masked Man feels like he'd be nothing more than an extra body. Probably wouldn't complain if he got in, but there can be better usage of unique fighter and echo fighter spots

Nomination: Nathan Drake x5

 

[Nemuresu]

Also with 5 nominations is a new concept, DLC character pass ( Nemuresu am I correct in assuming this is to be sort of a season pass?)

Indeed.

Now, with the ratings:
Both Masked Man and Porky receive double zeroes from me.
Why? Because both characters aren't either requested or well-known enough to make it into Smash, imo, not to mention Mother is already a small franchise on its own, and it's not like we're going to get a playable villain for each franchise in the game.
Nomination: DLC character pass/Season pass x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Yoo, the Mother 3 villain duumvirate! Nice.

Porky or Pokey, forever Minch

Chance: 13%
Not too shabby. He has Sakurai’s attention from Brawl. He’s low key popular, performing pretty decently in ports. However, I think he’d probably return as a boss for this Spirits mode everyone keeps talking about.

Masked Man

Chance: 5%
If we get a unique Mother newcomer, it’ll probably be Porky. He can’t be an Echo, since jet pack, laser sword and all that stuff isn’t really any other characters kit.

Want: 100% for both
Huge Mother fan, and would love any bit of representation I could get.

Porky;


Chance: 20: I'm not sure how on earth you make him work for smash. If they can figured it out, great. I'd probably love to play as him because he'd be really different, but i dont see it happening. Avoiding going the full 0 because if there is another Earthbound character getting in he's the leading candidate, but it's probably not happening.

Want: 60: I don't really care about the Earthbound/Mother series, and since it's basically dead I don't really care to see them get another character in, but I think there's a really cool character concept in here if they can figure out how to make it work. While I don't really want another Earthbound character in the game, Porky would have a really unique concept and for that alone the scales tip in his favor for my personal tastes.

Masked Man:

Chance: 1: He's not getting in. Behind Porky on depth chart most likely and is in a dead series. Just don't see it happening. Leaving the door a crack open because there could be a chance he gets in as an echo of Lucas or Ness if the devs give out more echo slots than I expect, but with Porky also having been in Brawl I would think that he would be the next Earthbound character to get in, leaving the Masked Man out in the cold. I don't think he was that requested either, so things don't look great for him.

Want: 0: I don't really see anything to convince me he should get in. Porky would be a cooler and unique character, while Masked Man would give us another Lucas or Ness. I don't really think we need another Earthbound character in the game either unless they can figure out how to make them different from the rest of the roster, and Masked Man feels like he'd be nothing more than an extra body. Probably wouldn't complain if he got in, but there can be better usage of unique fighter and echo fighter spots

Nomination: Nathan Drake x5

Umm, if you think Masked Man would be an Echo of Ness or Lucas... I dunno what to tell ya, did you even look at the character? You definitely haven’t played Mother 3, that much’s for sure.

Predictions:
Ken 78%
Black Shadow 19%

 

[warelander]

Porky

Chance: 25%

He does have fans who support him and got a lot of love back in Brawl, showing that Sakurai clearly likes to work with the character. I also don't think relevancy is as much of an issue as it's made out to be, especially with a series like Mother, which ended on it's own terms, rather then critical or commercial failure.

I still don't expect him, but I don't think he's chanceless.

Want: 100%

Still one of Nintendo's most memorable villains in my eyes and he would make for a great mech fighter. Plus, I'm a Mother fan, so of course I'd love his inclusion.


Masked Man

Chance: 5%

Much like Porky he does have fan support, but I feel like it's gotten less over time and while he has been referenced in For, there is still little indication that Sakurai is uberly interested in him.

Want: 80%

Again, I'm a Mother fan, so while I'd prefer Porky or Ninten, I'd still greatly enjoy Masked Man's inclusion.


Nominate: 5x Captain Syrup

 

[NintenRob]

I'm not quite sure why we're rating these two, nothing really come up to help either

Porky Chance 3%
Masked Man 2%
Look I know villains is the talk of the hour but I don't really think that means every franchise is getting a villain, especially one as dormant as Earthbound. And both would likely have to be unique which doesn't bode well given the limited space
Both Want 0%
I'd rather development go elsewhere, it's a nice franchise but it's already really well represented for its size

Nominate no more stages x5

 

[Icedragonadam]

Porky:

Chance:15%
Want: 50%
He's more likely to be a boss again rather than playable. Ninten is the only likely Mother newcomer IMO.

Masked Man: 2%
Want: 50%

Yeah don't see it. I don't think he placed well enough on the ballot.

Nominate Concept: More Than 5 Unique Newcomers x5

 

[Deleted member]

Abstaining on both.

I know next to nothing on them as I've yet to beat a EarthBound game and none of them feels like Echo material to me either.


Noms:
Metroidvania-like adventure mode x5

Ken prediction: 86.48%
Black Shadow prediction: 57.27%

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Porky:

Chance: 10% - He's not a complete nobody in terms of fan demand, but he's from a series that's already well represented for what it is, and with limited spots I don't think one will go to Mother.

Want: 100% - One of my favorite Nintendo characters, he's one of those who you just love to hate. Would likely have a very cool playstyle aswell.

Masked Man:

Chance: 5% - As a unique character he's just not happening, and I feel that as an echo they'd have to really stretch the definition to get him to fit. I'm not going to count his echo chances out completely, but I have a hard time seeing it.

Want: 30% - If we get a Lucas echo I'd rather have had Kumatora, beyond that I don't think it'd do him justice, and as a unique character I'd much rather have Porky.

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Porky: Chance: 10%
Porky's a pretty significant character in both EarthBound and Mother 3, so I could easily imagine that if they wanted a non-echo EarthBound/Mother character, Porky would probably be one of the best options when it comes to a unique fighter thanks to his mechs that he brings into battle. He's also been a boss in the Subspace Emissary, so it's probably feasible to make a moveset for him if they could.

I think there are some big problems that impact his chances, one of them being the mechs themselves being quite big (especially the Mother 3 one since he's sealed in a capsule), and that could possibly become the new loltoobig challenge that they might have to figure out. Probably if they wanted feasibility they could merge elements of both mechs, but then I guess that might also come into the question of stuff like how would they handle stuff like throwing around a kid inside a sealed battle mech? (Bowser Jr. I guess shows that it could be done, but the mechs that Porky pilots are pretty big).

EarthBound/Mother as a series is finished, so relevance might not be in his favour. I imagine fan-demand and if they think it's feasible might be the criteria that Porky might need to fulfil if he were to become playable.

Want: 60%
Admittedly I'm fine with Ness and Lucas, but I guess if I had to add one more unique EarthBound/Mother character, I'd say Porky would be my go to pick. He's not really high on my list for newcomers, but I imagine if they managed to get him to work as a playable fighter, I'd be down for it.

Abstaining on the Masked Man. Haven't played Mother 3, although I've pretty much had some fairly significant parts of Mother 3 spoiled... :\ (adds the fan-translation to the backlog of games I oughta play...)

Nominations: Return of Palutena's Guidance/Codec Calls X5

 

[Awakining]

Porky:

Chance: 25%

Porky is an important character in an absolute gem of series, and my sources tell me that he does decently well in fan polls as well. Additionally, I could see his time in the limelight via the Subspace Emissary helping his staying power with a contemporary audience. Lastly, If I were to add the chance for him to return as a boss, the score would be 75%, given that it's pretty likely well see at least a few veteran boss battles.

Want: 100%

EarthBound is one of my favorite video game franchises, and I would be delighted to have more content of any kind, but especially a unique playable fighter such as the Pig King. What can I say; Porky's a great villain, and it would be wicked to see him hit the big time in all of his glory.

Masked Man:

Chance: 15%

The Masked Man is popular within EB circles, but he doesn't have much else going for him, especially considering Mother 3's ongoing localization drama. There are only two reasons why I chose to score him above 5%, the first being due to the advent of Echo Fighters, which may stoke Sakurai's taste for surprise enough to give us something wild and unusual like this, and the second related to the one-in-million long shot that Mother 3 is released worldwide (or an updated version in its stead) and Nintendo decides to advertise it or capitalize off its sales, depending on the timing.

Want: 100%

This is one of my favorite characters from the EB series, and one of my top newcomers in general. Although I know just how slim his chances are, I'll still hold out hope that the Masked Man will get his chance for a while to come.

 

[skylanders fan]

Mother guys
chance
Yeah I just don't see either of these guys coming. Both weren't heavely requested and I just don't think we really have the need for more mother charcters to be represented in Smash (besides maybe Ninten but he may be too close to Ness)
10%

want
I woudl be fine with both charcters but again with a limited roster I want others more. Now thehy would be coola s bosses or At though.
50%

nominating
rick coo and kine x5

 

[Ninten DS]

Porky

Chance: 45%
Porky is a recognizable villain for his personality and what he has done. He was part of Earthbound's final boss and the reason for every single event to happen in Mother 3. Porky has a chance as a fighter, but I'm afraid he may become a boss, although it could be the opposite, just like with Ridley. Porky is the most requested Earthbound character as far as I know, so we might get him as a new Earthbound rep. I have a theory surrounding the Ultimate mural, which is that Mr. Saturn is the only item shown in the mural, being carried by the Pikmin, perhaps this could hint at a new Earthbound rep, plus: Mr. Saturn was in both Earthbound and Mother 3, who else? Porky. Earthbound doesn't get as much attention as it deserves, so that's one of the only reasons I don't see him happening, after all, in Ultimate popularity seems to be the primary factor. Not quite 50/50, but almost.
Want: 85%
I really want this ******* in Ultimate, I want him ever since Brawl. His importance in the Earthbound series is huge, of course after Mother, especially in Mother 3 as mentioned before. Porky has decent moveset potential plus with his Brawl boss appearance, like the hover laser as his up b. Recently I've heard that Porky is now one of the most wanted characters in Japan, perhaps we'll see him as DLC? I just hope he doesn't become a boss.

Masked Man

Chance: 15%
Masked Man was talked about a lot back in the Sm4sh days, but I believe Porky is still the most requested character for a next Earthbound rep. Masked Man is Porky's slave, so it'd be logical to have Porky first as the next Earthbound rep. He still has a fair chance, if we get to see Porky as boss but we still get a new Earthbound rep it'd most likely be him.
Want: 30%
I don't really want this guy in, he's Porky's slave, and I'd like to see him in after Porky, or along Porky (that ain't happening obviously). Having Claus and Masked Man represented as Lucas' costume is enough, Claus would rather be a costume for Lucas, if possible, and Masked Man is just Claus without feelings. He still has moveset potential, maybe even more than Porky, but pretty much I don't care if he gets in or not, I only care about the big bad boi King P, Porky Minch.


I hope one of these gets in the way I mentioned before, either Porky or Masked Man with Porky as a boss, or both at the same time, which is unlikely. Ever since I saw Mr. Saturn in the mural I believe a new Earthbound rep is likely, plus if Black Shadow gets in but not Porky that'll upset me.

 

[SoupCanMafia]

Porky (or Pokey)
Chances: Around 10% for Playable, 65% as a Boss
Want: 50%
This is mainly for a playable character status. If he was a boss, however, his chances would be much higher to appear in the game. As well, going from Earthbound itself, he's more of a coward than a fighter, with his only moves either doing nothing or actively hindering Ness. And, in my opinion, there is no way to make a character work without his spider mech.
The Masked Man
Chances: 5% for Unique, 20% as a Lucas Echo
Want: 50%
Now, there's sort of a problem with how Mother Three is handled. And yes, while there are ROMs out there with this game, Claus is still very much an unknown character in the majority of the western audience. This can severely impede his role in being a unique character in the game, though he can fit in pretty well as a Lucas Echo. That may not be what you guys want, though this is what I can possibly predict.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Mother Villains

Chance: 10%
Want: 0%

Oh Em Gee U Guise, they're totes adding villains!

Look, Mother is a dead series, the third segment of which still hasn't been localized. Talk about niche. Mother is already ridiculously well represented considering how niche it is, so more characters are not a necessity in the slightest.

We don't know much about this boss battle mode, but we do know that a Porky boss battle existed in Brawl which is easy enough to port in. We also know that of the one alt costume for Lucas that we've seen, it is the Masked Man recolor.

I think people are reading too much into this "Smash Ultimate is totally about heroes vs. villains since Ridley and K. Rool got in!" thing. And I think there are other series that need more attention than something which is dead and buried.

Prediction for Ken: 89.3%
Prediction for Black Shadow: 19,.4%

Nom: Dovahkiin x5

 

[DaUsername]

TCT~Phantom Looks like the schedule will have to be changed again.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

 

[SoupCanMafia]

May the best character (maybe) win!
Though it may just be about online stuffs and some fall games, so we should try to curb some of our enthusiasm

 

[Kotor]

RIP the current schedule. Gotta get my thoughts in now.

Porky
Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

Surprisingly generous considering I never touched the Earthbound/Mother series. I feel the Porky that would have to get in is Earthbound incarnation. The sprite seems to work out

but with Dracula and Rathalos as boss characters, there's a chance Porky could reprise his role from Brawl. Not every franchise needs to include a playable villain.

Masked Man
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

Originating from a game that I see as "never ever" in terms in of getting a official release. It does not that the Director of the series pretty much said the series had concluded. Has that Mother 4 fan game rebranded itself yet so they don't get an easy C&D from Nintendo? Masked Man's pretty obscure overall. Lacks the fan demand of Ridley and K Rool nor stood the test of time despite never appearing in anything for a decade nor in a main line entry since the N64 like what K Rool had to endure. I guess throw a bone to by giving Masked Man an Assist Trophy role.

Nominations
Black Knight as a boss character x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Porky
Chance: 2%
Not expecting any mother character to show up who's not called Ninten, considering its status. Very likely wasn't popular on the ballot with how niche the Mother series is. While there may or may not be a slight villain theme this time, there are still villainous characters who'd probably be of higher priority.

Want: 25%
Interest will probably increase when I play more of EarthBound.

Masked Man
Chance: 1%
More popular than Porky but only appears in only one of the three Mother games as opposed to Porky's two. The fact that Mother 3 still hasn't been officially localized also throws in a wrench. He might also be considered a spoiler at that.

Want: ABSTAIN

Punch Out newcomer x5

 

[Tew]

Porky:

Chances: 14%

Pros:
From all the possible Mother/Earthbound Characters he and Giygas seem to me the most likely. He does appear in multiple games and is the main villain once. Furthermore I think he ist he only other Mother character (besides Lucas and Ness of course) who got any bigger attention from Sakurai, as a boss in Subspace.
Also with the much speculated „Heroes vs Villains“ theme the chances for a Mother villain rise.
Let´s compare Mother to DK and Metroid. All three had 1 character in Smash64 (Ness, Samus, DK) didn´t get anyone in Melee, then got a Newcomer in Brawl (Lucas, ZSS, Diddy), then again didn´t get anyone in 4. Now with Ultimate DK as well as Metroid got their biggest and most well known boss/villain. Ridley too appeared as a boss in subspace. I think a Mother villain is in the realm of possibility, but there are a few cons.
Cons:
As I already mentioned, I also think Giygas has a decent chance. Maybe an even bigger one. He was the main villain of 2 games and mainly could work as a Mewtwo Echo.
Neither Giygas nor Porky or probably any other Mother character is popular enough to make it in as a fan favourite. And this seems to be the most important factor for Ultimate. Aside from the Echoes, here not all are highly requested big fan favourites.
But Porky wouldn´t work as an Echo. Furthermore he might be too big or too problematic to include/to put in all the work for a little requested character.


Want: 25%

Not the biggest fan of the character, but I would like to see any Mother Newcomer. To be honest, I would prefer Masked Man over Porky, but sadly I think Masked Man has the least chances out of the three more likely Mother candidates (Gigyas, Porky, Masked Man). He could also end up being a very unique and interesting character.




Masked Man:

Chances: 5%

Pros:
As I already said, I believe there is a good chance, we might see a Mother Villain Newcomer, I just doubt it´s going to be Masked Man. Though he shouldn´t be too hard to include, at least compared to Porky and he is more recent than Giygas. Well and he has a sword and it seems Sakurai has a thing for swords, so maybe.
Cons:
Contrary to Porky and Giygas he only appeared in 1 game and wasn´t even the main villain (but the final boss fight). Also he wouldn´t work as an Echo and like the rest of Mother, likely didn´t get too many votes on the Smash4 Ballot.


Want: 50%

Could be a fun and unique fighter, even though he has a sword. Also he is one of my favourite Mother characters and has the best design in my opinion ^^.



Nominations:
5x Fjorm

 

[DaUsername]

May the best character (maybe) win!
Though it may just be about online stuffs and some fall games, so we should try to curb some of our enthusiasm

I'm sure there will be at least one newcomer or echo shown in the direct, it would be weird for there not to be.

 

[Artix]

Porky

Chance: 10%
Out of all the Mother/Earthbound characters to be in Smash, I think Porky is more likely since he has appeared in most Mother/Earthbound games and Brawl as a boss in Subspace Emissary. However, I don't think they're going to make him a playable character, especially since Giygas is more likely to represent the series' villain. But who knows, with Ridley and King K. Rool being playable characters, I think Porky might be promoted to being a playable character.

Want: 5%
I'm not really interested about Porky. But if he does become a playable character, they're gonna tone down the size like how they did with Ridley and King K. Rool. And I acutally wouldn't mind if he does get in the game somehow, be it as a boss or a playable character.

Abstaining on Masked Man. I have no knowledge about this guy nor have I played any of his games.

Nominations:
Jin Kazama x5

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Porky

Chance: 1%
I really don't think Mother has much of a chance going for it getting more content this time around. This series has concluded over a decade ago and it seems like another installment just isn't happening. Pair that with its small, but very dedicated, fan base, it doesn't have the demand to bring in another fighter.

Want: 60%
I like the character and he could be an interesting fighter. With the inclusion of non-stage bosses to battle against, I'd be quite happy just to have his Brawl boss return for whatever mode you'll fight those bosses on.

-----

Masked Man

Chance: 1%
Literally the same thing I said for Porky's chances. I just doesn't look good for the Mother series.

Want: 0%
I have no connection with the character and don't see him to be that interesting.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Porky want: 0% (4-10*)

I think he makes sense as an addition, but I want other characters in more. This might be higher if both Ness and Lucas weren't already in.

Masked Man want: 0%

He can fly. There would have to be some justification for his inability to fly for me to accept him. Porky doesn't have this drawback, and I don't think Earthbound warrants two more characters, so Porky is a better choice.

Nominations:

FE Spear User x5

* Indicates percentage penalty for potentially taking a slot from most wanted characters

 

[Sid-cada]

Porky

Chance - 0.75% - Mother is a mostly dead franchise with little going to help it back up. Porky was a big villain that ties the two current protagonists together, but sadly doesn't seem to have much draw today. I don't think we will see him unless something really unexpected happens, or Sakurai seems something we don't.

Want - 60% - Could be interesting, but there are many other characters I want more. I find the idea of him playable thrilling, though I don't actively support him.


The Masked Man

Chance - 0.05% - No, not as an echo. He has too much of his own style to be one, I think. He doesn't really have much, even compared to Porky. I actually can't think of a reason for him to be included. Just a little, in case he does show up for some reason.

Want - 35% - Not interested. There are other characters I would prefer.


Predictions

Ken - 85.34% - Mostly seen as a lock.

Black Shadow - 4.24% - Not seen as likely.


Nominations

Reimu Hakurei X5

 

[VexTheHex]

Porky
Chance - 5%
I'm not sure he really would really be picked with Mother Series having ended and his size being shown in Brawl as rather large. While we are getting some spicy additions, I think Porky doesn't hold much of a shot.
Want - 40%
He's not really one I care for overall. But I do think he would be more interesting than 2 kids with similar powers and spice up the Earthbound representation. I think he works best as a boss and should return as so.

Masked Man
Chance - 2%
I remember some fan pull for him in the past, but I feel he would easily be looked over since his game didn't even escape Japan. We're looking at the high ballot picks more so than anything, so I really don't think he'd pull through.
Want - 20%
Not super interested in him. But I do think he could be neat in terms of his moves. But I also feel a 3rd boy that looks similar to Ness and Lucas is really pushing it. Give us someone more exciting than that!

Noms 5x Gardevoir

TCT~Phantom Looks like the schedule will have to be changed again.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Hmm, it's just a general direct so it's very possible nothing dedicated to Smash will be shown. Be cool if they at least showed off a few ATs or Pokemon, but I'll hold my expectation rather low for now as we may get nothing at all.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

PORKY
Chance: 5%
Want: 5%

He's better off as a boss character in the new Story mode. If he does get in, he will have to be severely sized down, and less overpowered.

MASKED MAN
Chance: 1%
Want: 50%

He's less well known than Porky, but would make an interesting new Earthbound character that doesn't use the same PSI abilities that Ness and Lucas use. He has a sword and an arm cannon to use, which has never been shared by a single character before. (Correct me if I'm wrong. And stupid.)

Predictions:
Ken: 70%
Black Shadow: 40%

Nominations: Free DLC characters x5. (I don't feel like spending money on new characters when they get released)

 

[TCT~Phantom]

TCT~Phantom Looks like the schedule will have to be changed again.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

The worst part is I got a gut hunch we are getting someone on the schedule. Ill post an update on this tonight.

 

[P.Kat]

Porky
Chance 5%
I don't know much, about Earthbound outside of the little info on Ness, Lucas, and their friends. The same goes for Porky, I didn't know about him until I fought as boss in Brawl. My lack knowledge aside, I don't see Porky being playable, neither have I heard much of anyone wanting him in Smash. And with the base roster so tight, I feel like it's unlikely that he'll get in. If anything maybe DLC, and even that's unlikely because I feel that he fits better as a boss character. If they chose another Earthbound rep, I could see them going for Ninten or even Kumatora before they choose Porky.

Want 20%
His robot spider is cool, and produces many different gadgets like lasers, streams of electricity, missiles, and explosive robot copies of himself. However there are other characters I'd prefer to have before ever wanting Porky. Ironically enough my most wanted Earthbound newcomer was Kumatora.

Masked Man
Abstain
I know even less about him, than I do about Porky.

Nomination: Amaterasu x5

 

[Opossum]

Reinhardt trophy x5

 

[aarchak]

Porky

Chance: 0%
This character I only see appearing as a boss character, like in SSE. Mother just doesn't have the popularity to warrant a third character.
Want: 15%
I don't really want him, but I'm not staunchly opposed to him.

Masked Man

Chance: 0%
I doubt it, neither as an echo nor a full character, for the same reason as Porky.
Want: 20% I don't want him much, but he's batter than Porky I guess.

Nominations

FE Spear User x4
SMT Character x1

 

[Smasher 101]

Porky and Masked Man

I am giving these two the same scores as my thoughts on both are really similar.

Chance: 1%

The best shot of a new Mother character is an echo, and I doubt either of these would get in that way. I don't think there's much hope for a unique character. The series obviously has its fans, but it's a pretty small and niche franchise. It also seems to be over, with the last game being over a decade old, and that game never even got an official release outside of Japan. And thus these two don't seem to be among the most popular choices out there. Throw in the fact that there's not likely to be much space remaining and the most I can see happening here is Porky returning as a boss, honestly.

Want: 50%

Completely indifferent to just about every Mother character, these two included. I have little connection to the series and neither character would excite or bother me.

Nominations: Gardevoir x5

 

[THE TemporaryFool]

Porky:
25% Chance.
I don’t think he will be playable. I know antagonist characters are all the rage now, but someone like Ninten from the first Earthbound game probably has higher priority. However, I see him returning as a boss.
55% want.
He was a fun boss IMHO

Masked man
Chance: 25%
Nor will I think that he will be playable either. I think Ninten might have more priority, as said above. Maybe as an assist trophy.
Want: 67.12% the only sort of antagonist from Earthbound i can get behind.

 

[Erureido]

Abstaining from both characters since I'm not too familiar with the Earthbound series despite being familiar with both characters. I'm also not that interested in either of them.

------

Predictions

Ken (Street Fighter): 87.16%

Pretty much seen as one of the most likely Echo Fighters.

Black Shadow (F-Zero): 35.42%

No comment.

------

Nominations

Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney): x5

 

[ProfPeanut]

Porky
Masked Man

Chance: 10%
I'm giving these guys the same ratings because I see them as essentially being in the same spot.

Candidates ever since the Brawl era, nothing's really changed for these two for the better. Mother 3 remains both unlocalized and unsucceeded by any sequels. While Sakurai's always had a soft spot for the Earthbound series, he's already given them all four of their stages back while paving the way for third missing kid Ninten to be the next most likely Earthbound character. That doesn't make it impossible for either of these villains, but demand for them had fallen to a soft decline since the Brawl years, demand that would've likely had them overlooked.

Want: 50%
While I've never played the games, I'd have nothing against seeing them suddenly included. Earthbound remains a beloved and influential title, and the pressure exerted by having even more Mother 3 characters in Smash might push Nintendo to finally port the thing.


Predictions
Ken: 65%
Black Shadow: 11%

Nominations:
Guzma x5