Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[PK_Wonder]

Not much more can be said about these two so I am just going to echo the thoughts of others on these two very likely echo fighters.

Isabelle 90%
Leaks or no leaks. Major, popular role in popular franchise with a certain future. Easy echo with plenty of potential tweaks to make distinct if wanted. AT has been replaced. Multiple amiibo. De facto mascot of AC nowadays. Mario Kart 8 character. As close as I would get to putting money on a character.

Shadow 80%
Sonic is one of the most important gaming franchises of all-time. If it were first party but had an otherwise similar history it could easily have five playable characters. As it is now, there is a new AT instead of Shadow, third party echoes are a thing, and Shadow is the most obvious choice for a Sonic echo.

Nominate Amaterasu x5

 

[Opossum]

Giving double hundreds to Isabelle.

The single biggest Nintendo All-Star not yet in Smash, can easily work as either an echo or a unique fighter, is incredibly popular, and was implicated by Verg. I'd be shocked if she wasn't in, and her being absent would be the single most glaring omission. She, alongside the Inklings, constituted the only characters I'd consider shoo-ins, and no amount of "hurr shoo-ins don't exist" can change that for me.

Reinhardt trophy x5

 

[Kotor]

Isabelle

Chance: 60%
Want: 50%

She's got popularity under her belt. Isabelle being "too peaceful" doesn't make sense when we have Villager who was dismissed in Brawl for similar reasons, but got added anyway in Smash 4. Isabelle's notably absent from her Assist Trophy role. Yet to be spotted in a demo, and wasn't randomly shown in the background in the August Direct like with Ashley. I wouldn't say Isabelle was "replaced" by Kapp'n. Kapp'n has a completely different role from what Isabelle did. A franchise can have more than one Assist Trophy. Look at Zelda. Until they say Skull Kid is playable, he wasn't "replaced" by the Moon. Personally, I'd rather she'd be a semiclone of Ryu.

Shadow the Hedgehog

Chance: 50%
Want: 25%

Was already a popular pick as a Sonic echo after he, Chrom, Dark Samus, and a few others were absent from the E3 demo. Ritcher's inclusions rips another page off of the Super Smash Bros. Rulebook of Assumptions. Specifically Page 93, Section I: "No Third-Party Franchise is allowed a second playable character." Shadow's straight up expected now. Would get pretty awkward if he actually wasn't playable. Never really played any of the Sonic games Shadow appeared in after Sonic Adventure 2. That's the Shadow I'm mostly familiar with.

Nominations
Rowlet x5

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Isabelle

Chance: 75%
Ok, I'm going over my 50% limit for chance this one time because I don't see any other Nintendo character being more likely. She is the last Nintendo-owned All Star missing from the roster with the rest of their property being B/C List at best. She's heavily promoted not only for her series, but as a general Nintendo character as well. She's beloved by her community and Animal Crossing is a major Nintendo IP that is worth of more than a lone character.

Want: 100%
She certainly climbed into my top 10. Originally, she was my joke pick in Mario Kart, but then I got good with her. She's a fun character that is so sweet that having her batter down imposing foes like Ridley brings a smile to my face. Plus, she's an All Star that belongs with her big league brethren.

-----

Shadow

Chance: 40%
His AT is MIA and he's very popular. He'd make an easy clone if the team wants to go the lazy route. He does have a couple bigger names in his own series, so I don't see him as a complete lock.

Want: 15%
Will I be mad if he gets in? Not really, I'll have loads of fun mocking hum whenever I play as him. I do feel like Tails and Dr. Eggman both have earned a spot over him being as recognizable as the biggest names in the game. Either way, Sonic needs to have more than just him playable so I can accept Shadow despite my not wanting him.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Dumb Joke

I went to a zoo once, but they only had one animal. A dog. It was a Shih Tzu.

Chance: 60%
Want: 80%

Bel may not be one of my most wanted characters, but she absolutely deserves it.

Besides the fact that she would be a ridiculously easy Villager echo, she's basically staged a coup on the franchise and became its new face since her debut in 2012. She is unequivocally the most important Nintendo character not currently playable in Smash.

Still, Ashley's importance has grown in leaps, but didn't save her from being an assist. Isabelle's known to eschew fighting, so her assist is actually a proper representation for her; I wouldn't be surprised if it stayed. Still, I think that if anyone gets the jump to playable, she should be first in line. She's playable in Mario Kart even! (That was April 2015, so before the Smash plan was made)

I want to see Ridley impale her with his tail stab. And then I want to see her running around with the Death's Scythe reaping everyone. My headcanon is that she has a secret dark side, and I really want to see it come out.

OW THE EDGE

Chance: 50%
Want: 0%

Here's another of those 'want' scores that is absolutely dependent on another character.

Shadow is completely a product of the late 90s - early 2000s. He's become the most popular character in the Sonicverse behind Sonic himself and he's a ridiculously easy Sonic clone. He's basically 'Sonic, but a dark anti-hero version.'

but...

In what universe does it feel right to add Wario before Luigi? And with Knuckles' promotion to assist and Shadow's existence as an assist and potential echo, Tails deserves a lot more than just getting stuck with Silver in the loop. Tails is Sonic's original best friend, and is one of the more recognizable characters to non-fans of the series.

For me, I won't really care about Shadow one way or the other after Tails gets in. But as Tails is recognized as Sonic's number 2, he should get priority.

---

Now, to address something for both of them - they were both assists in 4, and a lot of people took the Smash Ballot as 'This will decide DLC for Sm4sh' (only the Japanese admitted future games), and the fanrule was 'Assists can't get promoted' so many characters who were assists probably had throttled votes. We also don't know if the Mii costumes were for characters who were intending to get promotions in some way or not: by this time, some characters like K. Rool and Chrom are now in, but characters like Ashley are confirmed not. Isabelle (and Tails) did get one, Shadow didn't.

Prediction for both Mothers: 39.5%
Nom: Unpopular character x5

Nice pun.

 

[P.Kat]

Isabelle
Chance 90%
Basically the face of Animal Crossing, it's no surprise that Isabelle's popularity would eventually make her playable in Smash. She's been in a few spin off, and even Mario Kart, and just overall plastered wherever Nintendo and Animal Crossing may be. Also, why else would Kapp'n replace her as an Assist Trophy if she wasn't entering in Smash? Although everyone says she'll be an echo, the chance of being a unique character is still there.

Want 100%
My first, and only Animal Crossing game was City Folk on the Wii, so although I haven't played New Leaf, I still can appreciate the appeal, personality, and the overall 'can do attitude' of Isabelle, and what she brings to her game, and what she could bring to this game. I still think she can be a unique newcomer, because Sakurai wouldn't want to stray away from Isabelle personality, and profession too much by making her an echo. I say she has a higher chance of being unique than everyone gives, but unique or not, I'll still gladly accept her as a newcomer in Smash.

Shadow
Chance 90%
As the second most popular Sonic character (sorry Tails), and Knuckles replacing him as an Assist Trophy, Shadow is all but in. From his first appearance in SA2, to Mario and Sonic in Olympic Games, he's been in most of the games. It's all too easy to make him a Semi-echo, change the dash, give him teleport, and call it a day. But like Isabelle, I believe Shadow still has a chance to be unique.

Want 49%
SA2 was my first Sonic game, and although Sonic is my favorite out of the two, I really liked seeing this darker edgy version of him. Again it's all too easy to make him an echo, but one could also easily make him unique with his moveset. You can give Shadow the Chaos Spear as a projectile, or have him remove the golden energy rings on his wrist, their not just for show, they're made for storing and restraining Shadow's immense power, so when taken off he gains a few buffs, his speed, damage, and destructive abilities increases, as shown in the anime and games.

So I definitely want Shadow in, however the reason why his want percent is so low, is because there's one Sonic character I want just a little bit more than Shadow and that's Blaze the Cat. But other than that, I'm sure of Shadow's chances, as a newcomer and hopefully as a unique character.

Nomination: Amaterasu x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Isabelle:

Chance: 85: Not sure if she was a major request or not, but shes been replaced in the assist trophies by another Animal Crossing character so it seems pretty likely. Believe there's someone else who does her ability from smash 4 that they added in as well, so it seems like they're covering all their based before bumping her up.

Want: 2: Do we really need another Animal Crossing character? It feels like another one of those minor franchises where one is enough like WarioWare and FZero. I'm fine with her being an echo of Villager, but for a unique character? Not interested in that at all. Maybe I'm ignorant of how well the games are selling but it feels like a waste to give her a major spot. That being said a kick ass trailer or fun looking moveset can always sway me pretty easily.

shadow:
Chance: 80: Going slightly lower than Isabelle's chances due to his status as a 3rd party, but a lot of what I said above applies here. People have been asking for another sonic rep for a while now, and shadow being an echo of sonic makes a lot of sense. He has some competition from Tails still too, but he's a strong contender for another spot

Want: 80: I've always found shadow to be pretty cool personally. Never played any of the sonic games but shadow, along with silver, were always my top picks to play as in the Mario v sonic games. He'd also fit the mold of the echos in the same way Dark samus and Dark Pit have.

Nomination: Nathan Drake x5

 

[Tew]

Isabelle:

Chance: 75%

Maybe one oft he, if not the single most likeliest Newcomers, yet I still can´t give her more than 75%. Sakurai and Nintendo in general are just too unpredictable. You think something would make perfect sense and basicly give them tons of free money and they don´t do it and then they suddenly do something great out of nowhere, no one ever expected.

Anyway, Pros:
Big Nintendo Icon (first party), AC is Nintendo´s 10th best selling franchises and far infront of Metroid and Fire Emblem, she is heavily marketed and more or less the mascot of AC, she could work as an unique fighter or as an Echo, while still having enough options to make her different or even just a Semi Clone, pretty sure we will see a new AC on the Switch soon, her AT is still MIA and we got a new AC AT and she even made it into Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Something even Kirby, Fox and Captain Falcon didn´t manage to do (even though they would fit perfect imo)).
Cons:
There is not really anything going against her, besides as already mentioned, that who knows what Sakurai is planning. But to be honest, I don´t think she is one of the most most requested characters. Many would like her in, but I barely ever see people actively supporting and advertising her as a character and at the time of the ballot the AC fandom just got their first Newcomer and Echos weren´t a thing. Back then most people hated on Clones.

Want: 25%

I expect it and think she as a character deserves it and it would be great for her fans, but I never played AC (might change if a new good looking AC comes to the Switch) and don´t really care. I do like playing as Villager tho, so an Echo or Clone or whatever could be fun.



Shadow:

Chance: 55%

Pros:
If a third party franchise deserves a second fighter, it has to be Sonic. He was the first third party character and at this point more people probably know Sonic from Nintendo games (like Smash or Mario&Sonic Olympic Games), than from Sonic games. As a small kid I even thought for a while that he was a Nintendo character ^^“.
Shadow is likely the most requested Sonic character and probably also besides Sonic Segas most important character. And similar to AC, Sonic got a new different AT with Knuckles.
Cons:
The biggest Con I see here, is that he has a bit of concurrence with Tails and Eggman/Robotnik. Tails is still the number 2, but he did kinda get the Yoshi treatment (in Mario&Sonic he ist he rival of Yoshi, while Shadow is Luigis rival), being more a disposable sidekick than an actual character sometimes. And contrary to Shadow he also never got his own game I think. Eggman with his machines on the other hand could be a very interesting and unique character and in a possible Hero vs Villain story setting, he would fit well too. Regardless I give Shadow by far the best chances out of all the Sonic characters.

Want: 40%

I like…or liked Sonic a lot, as it was a big part of my childhood, but I never cared too much about Shadow. There are a few other characters from the Sonic series I would prefer, like Silver, Espio, Cream&Chao, but know they will likely never make it in. So I am fine with pretty much every other Sonic representation.



Nominations:
5x Fjorm

 

[Klimax]

Isabelle
Chance: 100%
She's in the game, we all know it.

Want: Abstain
I don't care at all about this character, I'm not a fan of Animal Crossing.


Shadow
Chance: 100%
No doubt about his presence. Like Ken, this character screams "echo fighter".

Want: 100%
Since my journey on the Sega & All Stars Racing Transformed's online, Shadow is one of my favorite video game character. I liked him before but i didn't care much about him. Now, I really want to see him.

 

[Travix Man]

Isabelle

Chance: 90%. Her assist trophy is replaced with Kapp'n, so her chances have increased. Plus she is very popular in the Animal Crossing fandom enough to make an appearance in Mario Kart 8. I believe she has a strong chance to be a fighter as an echo to Villager, though some items could be different. I would like it if her bowling balls were changed to Bell Bags, which could equally be heavy.

Want: 90%. My brother appreciates the Animal Crossing series a lot so another rep would be a plus. I could personally care less for another Animal Crossing rep, but if there needs to be one, it has to be Isabelle.

Shadow

Chance: 100%. His assist trophy is replaced with Knuckles, so his chances have increased. Shadow is the second most popular in the Animal Crossing canon second only to Sonic himself. I believe he has a strong chance to be a fighter as an echo to Sonic, as Chrom and Dark Samus have shown that echo fighters aren't exactly 1:1 with the original fighter and can have some different moves.

Want: 100%. Shadow is my most wanted character besides King K. Rool (confirmed) and Dixie Kong. He is also one of my favorite characters in the Sonic the Hedgehog series as he is one of the few characters who has actual character development. Though I do not like what Sega has done with his characterization in recent years, they did have him return as a hero in Sonic Forces and include him as a playable character via DLC. Though I would also love it if Tails and/or Dr. Eggman were also playable, Shadow is now extremely likely in terms of chances.

 

[cybersai]

Isabelle as an echo: 90%. Her assist would have been shown by now, and she seems an easy echo to give Animal Crossing another character.

 

[xNaz]

Isabelle and Shadow
I'll be real here - I'm usually not very generous with rating the chances of potential newcomers but I genuinely honest to god think that these two are both 100% in as echo fighters for similar reasons. In addition to neither having had their assist trophies shown, Sonic has received another franchise character as an assist in Knuckles and Isabelle's AT role of dropping food has also been taken over by Kirby's Chef Kawasaki. I expect both of them to be announced any time in the upcoming Nintendo directs. How much Shadow's moveset deviates from Sonic's is something up in the air.

 

[THE TemporaryFool]

Isabelle:
Chance: 80% Isabelle is a character that I think is more than likely. We haven’t seen her assist trophy, she is a popular pick amongst fans and may be included to represent New Leaf
Want: 10% I don’t care for her. I don’t want there to be to many echo fighters in the game.

Shadow:
Chance: 90% we haven’t seen his assist trophy either, being replaced by knuckles. He might happen because we know third party characters can have echo fighters.
Want: 1% to me he is just one edgy boi. Again, echo fighters are cool and all but they should be kept to a minimum. They could do alot more with someone like, Tails for instance.

 

[Erimir]

Biggest issue with these two is they'd probably be Echoes and I don't really like the originals' movesets in the first place...

Isabelle

Well, there are a few factors that point to her being in:

• Most importantly, Vergeben said she was in, and he was right about Ridley, Simon, ICs, Snake, no cuts...
• Her AT has yet to be seen
• We've seen four Echoes already, three in the last direct. Probably safe to assume more are coming, and Isabelle is a decent candidate for one
• She also probably could work as a unique fighter (Vergeben didn't specify)
• She is fairly popular
• Popular enough to be made a playable character in Mario Kart and receive costumes in Smash, Monster Hunter, etc.
• Animal Crossing is also a fairly high-selling series, with over 30 million in sales.

The only factors against her I can come up with are that Animal Crossing hasn't had a main series game in a while (but 2015's Happy Home Designer still sold over 3m copies).

Isabelle overall chance: 92%
(Echo 74%, unique 18%)
Vergeben isn't guaranteed to be right, but his word plus other factors pointing in her direction make her about as close to a lock as I'm willing to go.
Isabelle overall want: 31%
(Echo 25%, unique 55%)
As an Echo, the thing is that I don't like Villager's moveset that much and I don't have a connection to her, so I actively dislike the idea. But there is still a chance she could be unique and Animal Crossing is a big enough deal that they might. I wouldn't be excited by her, but I'd be fine with that. Overall is a weighted average by chance of Echo vs. unique.

Shadow

Shadow has some similar factors pointing to his inclusion, but overall has a weaker case

• His AT is missing
• Echoes being a thing, including 3rd-party Echoes. Vergeben says Ken will also be an Echo, so we may well see more 3rd-party Echoes.
• I guess he's popular enough, altho I'm not sure how popular he is compared to Knuckles or Tails, etc. They do better than him in at least some polls, although the fact that he was already an AT may have depressed his vote.

I would note that Shadow's position is not like that of Dark Samus or Chrom, who we had much stronger hints for. Not only was Dark Samus absent as an AT, and Robin's Final Smash unshown, but Samus's Dark Samus palette and Ike's Chrom palette were removed. Sonic never had a super close Shadow palette and they haven't made any changes there.

Shadow chance: 66%
I don't want it to be true, but there's a very good chance it is. He's not a shoo-in though, as it's not clear to me that being playable is the only reason his AT could be absent. We haven't seen them all, so it could still be in. It could also be cut, maybe they decided Knuckles was more popular. Who knows. But there is, unfortunately, a pretty good chance he's an Echo.
Shadow want: 0%
We have Dark Pit and Dark Samus, do we need Dark Sonic? I don't like Sonic's moveset as it is, but I have to admit he is a worthy addition. On the other hand, I don't really care about "edgy" Sonic. I'd rather see Tails, if we must get a Sonic Echo (he could have a unique up-B like Chrom). Boring character.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Holy ****, are these ratings for echoes or what? Please specify next time.

Isabelle want: 0%

Villager's moveset is lame, and Isabelle would be worse, with furniture, stacks of paper, and falling over. These characters don't have interesting enough moves to be playable. Represent Animal Crossing in other ways.

Shadow want: 0%

I don't care about this character. It also pisses me off that people want him as an echo now, but I got so much **** for saying he should be an alternate costume of Sonic before E3 started calling clones 'echoes'. Do they really think he'll be different from Sonic in all the ways that kept them from approving of my idea, even with custom moves to differentiate him from Sonic.

Nominations:

FE Spear User x5

 

[hposter]

I don't want it to be true, but there's a very good chance it is. He's not a shoo-in though, as it's not clear to me that being playable is the only reason his AT could be absent. We haven't seen them all, so it could still be in. It could also be cut, maybe they decided Knuckles was more popular. Who knows. But there is, unfortunately, a pretty good chance he's an Echo.

there are fans of every character out there, nobody's inclusion should be "unfortunate"

nominations:
9-volt x5

 

[RouffWestie]

Isabelle
Chance: 100% Want: 30%
Black Sonic Alt Costume
Chance: 100% Want: 0%

Both would be easy ways to appeal to large fanbases. I'm not going to jump out of my seat for either, but Isabelle would be decent due to giving more love to Animal Crossing.
Shadow as a Sonic echo on the other hand, that's gonna be a yikes from me.
Everything I like about Shadow comes down to the Chaos abilities he showcases in his appearances. Nobody else in the Sonic franchise is so frequently associated with the Chaos abilities. They're powers that really molded Shadow into a more interesting character to me.
An echo can't provide those differences. Just as people said Dark Pit was basically a glorified set of alternate costumes for Pit, Shadow would be represented as nothing more than a set of alts for Sonic. An echo wouldn't bring anything I like about the character, and would actually have a negative impact on a lot of people's impression of him, because it would suggest that Shadow is literally just Black Sonic similar to how Daisy is deemed "literally just Orange Peach."
Which would be wrong and we all know it because we've seen him using his own powers several times.
Eh, since it's inevitable, I guess I'll just continue to enjoy the fanmade Shadow in Smash Crusade; he utilizes his powers in faithful ways that are unique to the rest of the roster, and even if he's not perfect, I sure as hell have a lot of fun playing as him.

 

[Sid-cada]

Isabelle

Chance - 75% - I don't think she can get in as her own character, but she is the most likely echo I can think of. Her popularity and franchise are enough to keep her going. I just don't want to overrate due to a general uncertany feeling over echos.

Want - 50% - I have no feelings over echos. If she gets in or not does not bother me at all.


Shadow

Chance - 60% - Third party echoes are now proven to be a thing. He has all the qualifications, compared to many others, but who knows with third parties. I don't have as much faith as many do here.

Want - 50% - Just repeat what I said for Isabelle. I really have no opinion on the matter.


Predictions

Porky - 4.64% - Not seen as super likely...

Masked Man - 2.33% - Even less than Porkey, at least.


Nominatinos

Reimu Hakurei X5

 

[Gerrothorax]

Isabelle and Shadow
Chance: 100%
Both these characters get a hundred because they have everything going for them. They'd be incredibly easy additions that would please a lot of people. Plus their previous roles as assist trophies have already been supplanted by Kapp'n and Knuckles.
Chance: 50%
Don't have any attachment to either character but i'm not oppossed to thier inclusion since their only getting in as lazy echoes.
X5 Disconfirmed character as DLC

 

[Erureido]

Isabelle

Chance: 65% --> 90%

I'll preface this by quoting what I said about her chances last time.

Villager aside, she is one of if not the face of the Animal Crossing franchise and even made a crossover appearance in Mario Kart 8 as a playable racer. If Sakurai will choose a second Animal Crossing rep, it's her.

So why such a huge increase? With the existence of Echo Fighters, I think she'd make a very plausible Villager Echo. In fact, I think it's quite likely we'll see her as such. The fact there has been no official announcement of her Assist Trophy status even does her favors right now. Heck, Kapp'n is looking to be her AT replacement.

Want: 50% --> 50%

Copy and pasting what I said last time:

I won't be opposed to seeing her in Smash since she has her reasons, but I won't care all that much if she's added. My reaction to her as a playable Smash fighter would basically be, "Oh, she finally made it. That's cool."

------

Shadow

Chance: 80%

He seems pretty likely as a Sonic Echo. Not only is he a very popular character from Sonic's franchise, but like with Isabelle, there is currently no mention of him returning as an AT. The Knuckles Assist Trophy might even be the Sonic series's AT replacement with Shadow's promotion.

Want: 45%

I prefer Tails as the next Sonic rep, but I wouldn't mind Shadow. I have an affinity for the edgy characters in fiction.

------

Predictions

Porky (Earthbound): 7.14%

No comment.

Masked Man (Earthbound): 4.17%

No comment.

------

Nominations

Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney): x5

GoodGrief741 I'll lend you a hand in nominating Phoenix Wright. I'm still interested in re-rating him. However, I also want to nominate Leo these days just to make sure he doesn't get knocked out of the nominations list like what previously happened to him, so I'll most likely alternate between the two characters every 10 nominations from now until Leo reaches the 50 nominations threshold to spare him from the nominations chopping block.

 

[Smasher 101]

Isabelle

Chance: 95%

I've always been pretty confident in her, and not only do I still consider her the most likely newcomer, at this point I think she's a shoe-in. Animal Crossing is very successful, she's pretty much the face of the series, she's fairly popular, she's probably one of the most important Nintendo characters not yet in Smash, she could reasonably be chosen as unique or echo, and her assist already looks like it might have been replaced. She just has so much going for her. I do lean towards her being an echo nowadays, but I'll honestly be absolutely stunned if she's not in either way.

Want: 100%

I personally want a new Animal Crossing character. I like the series and I like Isabelle, I think she's earned it and I'd enjoy seeing how she'd be implemented. Obviously it'd be great if she was unique, but Villager was actually my most used newcomer in 4 so I'd happily welcome her as an echo too.

Shadow

Chance: 80%

Although I personally can't quite see a third party echo as likely as Isabelle, now that we know those are a thing I think Shadow made the cut too. There's been plenty of requests for a new Sonic character, and Shadow's a very popular choice. He'd be a pretty easy echo as well, and at this point I think Knuckles is a replacement AT, and I doubt Shadow would be replaced in that role unless he was upgraded.

Want: 10%

That said, echo or otherwise I'm still not particularly interested in another Sonic newcomer, and if I had to put someone in I'd pick several others like Tails or Eggman before Shadow. There's plenty of other potential echoes in general I'd prefer as well.

Nominations: Gardevoir x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Excitebiker

19.12% Chance (Previously 19.33%)
40.36% Want (Previously 40.45%)

Mach Rider
11.10% Chance
40.79% Want

Prince Sable
5.89% Chance
36.47% Want

Without King Takamaru, the retro spot, while competitive, seems to be neglected. With fewer newcomers, it makes sense to be honest. There are simply put less slots, it makes sense for retros to not do as well.


A few done, expect the big one tomorrow. Also I hate to do this again but extension for this day since I want the update to come at the end of it.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Isabelle
Chance: 75% - The most likely newcomer, I’d be shocked if she somehow didn’t make it in.
Want: 60%

Shadow
Chance: 60% - Ricken appeared and was immediately hired as Shadow’s defence attorney.
Want: 30%

Nominations: Edelgard x5

 

[Erimir]

there are fans of every character out there, nobody's inclusion should be "unfortunate"

We're giving "want" ratings here. When I give a 0%, it's not like it's a surprise that I'd view his inclusion as unfortunate. You might as well chide anyone who gives a low rating.

 

[hposter]

We're giving "want" ratings here. When I give a 0%, it's not like it's a surprise that I'd view his inclusion as unfortunate. You might as well chide anyone who gives a low rating.

you're not wrong, but saying it's unfortunate sounds like it's a plague to the roster
i know what you mean though, wording was just weird i guess

 

[Lord-Zero]

Isabelle
Chance: 75%
- She dethroned Tom Nook and she’s the likeliest character to become Villager’s Echo Fighter.
Want: 21%
- Meh. I wouldn’t be upset.

Shadow
Chance: 45%
- Pretty likely. His AT is mysteriously absent.
Want: 19%
- Pretty much the same as Isabelle.

Predictions
Porky: 4.7%
Masked Man: 3.4%

Nomination
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x5

 

[zferolie]

Isabelle:
CHance: 90%
As many other people have said here, she seems like one of the safe bets to make. She's the face of animal crossing, her AT got replaced, shes super popular, and she can work either as a unique or more likely an echo. This little doggy is coming in. I just hope she keeps her cute style as shes fighting.

Want: 90%.
I also really want her. Beating up people as an adorable secretary whos animations could have her looking nervous or sorry after some of her attacks sounds great. Plus really liked her in New leaf.

Shadow:
Chance; 80%
Less likely then isabelle but only barely. I feel like he is a good choice for a second sega rep as a sonic clone. could bring his own stuff to the game as well with teleports, his unique run, and maybe a chaos attack somewhere.

Want: 75%.
He's not my favorite sonic character but I wouldn't mind him in the game at all.

Nom: Donbe and Hikari x5

 

[ProfPeanut]

Shadow

Chance: 90%
As someone who didn't know who Richter was, my primary thought during his reveal could summed up as "Oh nuts, here comes Shadow."

Let's not pretend Shadow isn't demanded, nor that there's anything really blocking him at this point besides negligence.On one hand, it's possible that Richter only got in because he contributes so much to the Belmont moveset, which Shadow can't really say the same about. On the other, the echo fighter designation exists primarily to allow demanded characters that wouldn't need as much effort to clone, the kind that you don't need to argue so harshly for when they already have a moveset they could use.

Shadow may not like the idea of getting into Smash only because he could echo Sonic, but no one asked Dark Pit about his thoughts on the matter either.

Want: 20%
I'm still not fond of the idea, but at least Shadow is relatively up there with Tails and Eggman. If nothing else, he perfectly represents the direction of the Sonic franchise after the turn of the millenium.


Nominations
Guzma x5

 

[Koopaul]

Isabelle
Chance: 65%
A lot of people think she'd be an easy echo. The problem is that her proportions are very different from Villager's. So she'd either be a unique newcomer or a semiclone. That being said she still has a good chance of those things.
Want: 5%
I think Animal Crossing is fine with just Villager. But that is my personal opinion.

Shadow
Chance: 99%
Here is one of the easiest echoes I know. Can perform all the same moves as Sonic and has the same proportions as Sonic. Not to mention he's a highly popular Sonic character. This guy is in the bag.
Want: 0%
I really don't care in the slightest.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

ISABELLE

Chance: 100%
Her assist trophy is missing and replaced with Kappn', she has a Mii costume in Smash 4, she's popular, and she's the most likely Animal Crossing rep to make it in next.
Want: 75% (as a newcomer)
I would be cool with it as long as she's a newcomer. I could be seeing her as a funny joke character to troll your friends with during a tourney or something. Making her an echo of Villager would be pretty lame tbh.

SHADOW

Chance: 75%
He has a lot going for him similar to Isabelle and Skull Kid's case. AT missing, replaced with another, not sure if he has a Mii costume in Smash 4 or not, and he's popular enough.
Want: 30%
I would rather see Tails get in over Shadow tbh. He's also a major edge lord like Reaper, but not as cool. If they make him an echo character, that would be pretty disappointing since he has moveset potential using his Chaos attacks and stuff.

Predictions:
Porky: 2%
Masked Man: 5%

Nominations: Xurkitree x10

 

[Deleted member]

Isabelle: 90%
She's the biggest Nintendo icon missing, her AT is missing, yada yada, what needed to be said has already been said at this point. Though unlike most I expect her to be fully unique, I still can't see her as a Villager Echo and their proportions don't match.

Shadow: 80%
He's up there with Ken as one of the most likely Echoes, his AT is missing too and he's a popular Sonic character.


Nominations: Crono x5

Bonus: me trying to meme before the Direct

I fully expect for this image to be invalidated by the game's release.

 

[Lupin Red]

Isabelle

Chance: 75%
With the success of Animal Crossing: New Leaf and the fact that Isabelle herself is popular and the face of Animal Crossing series. I'd say she has a good chance of making it in, but I won't rate her higher than 75%. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Sakurai decided not to add her, but I'm very confident that she will get in somehow.

Want: 95%
I really want Animal Crossing to have a new character in Smash aside from Villager. I really love New Leaf as well as Isabelle, in fact, I'm still playing it to this very day.

Shadow

Chance: 80%
Ever since Richter was announced, I'm very much convinced that Shadow might get in as Sonic's Echo. He's very popular among Sonic characters and has been highly requested by fans, so I wouldn't be surprised if he made it in Ultimate. However, I'm still iffy about getting more third party characters in the base roster, but Shadow is an exception to this one, since it's pretty much a lock at this point.

Want: 75%
The first Sonic game I ever played was Sonic Adventure 2 and I really loved Shadow in that game. Honestly, I'm very confident that Shadow will be in Smash Ultimate since he's one of the most likely Echo Fighters we can get, alongside Ken and Isabelle.

Nominations:
Jin Kazama x5

 

[DaUsername]

Isabelle
Chance: 99%
I don't see much reason to doubt Vergeben at this point.
Even without leaks, she seems pretty likely. She has become the most prominent AC character both in and outside of her series, and AC is definitely big enough to get a second character. Honestly, I don't see any reason for her not to be playable.
Want: N/A

Shadow the Hedgehog
Chance: 85%
With echoes (and more importantly, third party echoes) becoming a thing, Shadow is more likely than ever. He's a pretty popular Sonic character (despite what memes would have you believe) and he seems like the most logical choice for a Sonic echo. His AT is also missing with a different Sonic character being an AT instead so there isn't really much preventing him from being in.
Want: 70%
A second Sonic character that takes minimal dev time? Sounds like a win-win to me.

Pokey prediction: 8%
Masked Man prediction: 3%
Noms: Nathan Drake x5

 

[Tikivoy]

Isabelle:
Chance: 70% I'm sure she's popular enough to be considered. I'm not completely convinced her AT just wasn't shown yet, but it does bode well.
Want: 80% She is a fun character. And it would be funny to have her to take revenge on her mayor that abandoned her town.
Shadow:
Chance: 65% An easy echo that would especially bode well since Sega has been using him lately. But again, I'm still kinda fearful he's still an AT.
Want: 90% I slept on him for 4, but now he's one of my most wanted. Not just because of echoes, but also because Sega's been giving him more love lately.
Nomination: Big Boss x5

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Isabelle
Chance: 80% - She could definitely make it in. The fact she's not been shown as an assist when she's the most popular character in Animal Crossing is very suspicious.
Want: 0% - Don't get me wrong, it's not because I don't like her. On the contrary, I love her! I just don't want to beat her up.

Shadow
Chance: 40% - With third parties getting echos, I feel it could happen, but I'm not convinced that just because his assist is gone means he's been upgraded. We could always just get two Sonic assists; heck, we have two Sonic stages - but honestly Knuckles is just a more important character to the franchise anyway. And Zero took the place of Mega Man's assist trophy, Elec Man confirmed I guess? /s
Want: 0% - Unless it's Tails or Eggman, I'll pass on another Sonic character.

Nominations
Frank West x5

 

[Icedragonadam]

Isabelle
Chance: 70%
Want: 40%

The likeliest echo character by far. She's really popular and her AT is missing and also hinted by Vergeben. It's also possibly for the AT to just be removed altogether like Isaac in 4.

Shadow
Chance: 50%
Want: 0%
He's a good shot as an echo. The only evidence of his inclusion is his missing status as an AT. But it could be possible his AT got cut like Isaac in 4.

Porky prediction: 13.22%
Masked Man: 7.77%

Nominate Concept: More Than 5 Unique Newcomers x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Scores update

Spoiler

Prof Layton
11.15% Chance (Previously 18.11%)
42.37% Want (Previously 38.41%)

A sharp decline in chance with fewer spots, but it appears that there is generally more demand for Layton. Curious.

Skull Kid

19.71% Chance (Previously 13.86%)
54.33% Want (Previously 48.87%)

This rating is going to go up now, but it is cool to see him being a sleeper hit.

Lip

16.32% Chance (Previously 11.34%)
43.227% Want (Previously 47.18%)

Noticable rise in chance (though this is due to quite a few high outliers) noticable decrease in want.

Travis Touchdown

11.30% Chance (Previously 16.54%)
25.26% Want (Previously 29.48%)

A controversial character getting rated even more negatively as spots get scarcer.

I will have more tonight, and the front page will get an overhaul. Stay tuned.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Isabelle

Chance 95%

I think kapp’n is taking her place is what I think is happening in my opinion and she’s the biggest star of animal crossing and this is definately a very high request I think she would have been deconfirmed earlier if she was not in.

Want 40% not a character I wanted but still cool none the less

Shadow

Chance 85%

Still missing in action ritcher Belmont shot his chances to moon since he just prove we can get more than one third party from a series that was the only big road block and shadows height speed and looks are correct to echo sonic knuckles might be taking his place as well and Chrom showed echos can be hybrid as well which is cloning multiple characters and ken is suposivly a echo too and he’s pretty much the easiest echo in the whole entire game to make since he was a echo of ryu before smash was even introduced so more than a third party reps are happening

Want 100% I’ve wanted another sonic rep easily

Nomination

5x black shadow

 

[Xenorange]

Shadow:
Chance: 90%. I’m convinced he’s an echo at this point, but there’s always that chance that he isn’t, so I’m not going to get my hopes to maximum levels.

Want: 100%. I’ve wanted Shadow since they announced Sonic in Brawl, I feel that I’ve been patient. Now that it’s Sonic’s 3rd time up to bat I think it’s likely that we’ll be getting another Sonic rep. If it can’t be Tails then I’m fine with Shadow. He’s my third favorite ficrional character ever.

Isabelle:
Chance: 95%. At this point if she’s not in I would be baffled. She’s a freaking lock.

Want: 10%. I don’t really care about her, from what I’ve read she’s a pacifist. What sense would her inclusion make if that’s the case? Also it’s too cute to beat up, i’ll Feel bad doing it.

 

[Misery Brick]

Isabelle:
Chance: 55%
Isabelle is arguably one of the faces of the Animal Crossing franchise and seems like a pretty good shoo in. She's been featured in MK8 and heavily used in promotional material.
However, that doesn't necessarily equate to Sakurai's decisions nor her aptitude for being a fighter. There's a chance that despite being recognizable, she'll retain her status from the previous iteration as an Assist Trophy due to Sakurai's qualms on not including peaceful or pacifist fighters in Smash, especially given the reason why Zelda has her ALBW incarnation over BOTW that the latter is more of a researcher than a fighter. That could just be an excuse for a design that fit with her moveset, but anyway.
I think she does have a bit going for her, but I also believe that it's just as likely she won't get in.
After all the AT count is supposed to be over fifty, so prepare for her to be in the same position she was in Smash 4.

Want: 60%
While I'm not crazy about her inclusion, I'm always happy that unrepresented or under represented series get more recognition through the roster. Especially given AC in recent years has become one of Nintendo's prominent franchises, so I'd be happy to see that.
Then again, I'm not sure how I feel about her being brutalized by characters like Ridley and Ganondorf. But if my boys, Pichu and Pikachu, can suffer through that, she can too I guess.

Shadow:
Chance: 39%
Given how much and how vocally a character, especially a fan favorite, can be thrown around in speculation, this may seem like an insane line of thinking.
Shadow may be arguably popular than most of the franchise's offerings, he doesn't have the amount of iconography that someone like Tails or Robotnik/Eggman has.
As far as character inclusions go, Sakurai usually goes for someone that has seniority over characters that are from the same franchise. You've seen this with Simon Belmont as opposed to Richter, despite Simon deriving most of his moveset from him, Richter is still the echo fighter even though he's more popular.
If Shadow was a 1:1 echo, which that's how I'm considering his chances, then he's relatively high imo compared to other newcomers. But even then, I feel if Sakurai did go give Sonic an echo fighter, it'd be Metal Sonic. Given they're both functionally the same character and he predates Shadow by quite a bit.
Now as someone like Chrom, which uses unique moves, I doubt it given that line of thinking could be applied to someone like Tails, who's more iconic and recognizable than the ultimate lifeform.
Also, to reiterate my point with Isabelle, there's supposed to be over fifty assist trophies. More than likely, the bulk of them are going to be ported over from Smash 4, which doesn't look too great for Shadow, despite Knuckles being in the game. (After all, "third parties can't have more than one assist" is a pretty arbitrary fan rule like "no multiple characters from one third party franchise")
If Shadow's AT wasn't missing or in previous iterations, I feel this wouldn't be a serious conversation in the first place.

Want: 45%
I don't really have any attachment to Shadow, really only because I've played more Classic Sonic games as opposed to modern ones.
While it would be nice to have another villianous character in the roster, I just would rather someone with seniority, and it'd be odd to see someone like Shadow get in before Tails and Robotnik.
While I'm sure fans of Shadow would be pleased, I'm personally not a fan of the character.

Nominations:
Chorus Kids x5