Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[PapillonXtreme]

Isaac

Chance: 30%
I don't know, Isaac may have a ton of support from the Ballot, but I don't think that will be enough for him to make the cut. His series is pretty much dead and that really hurts his chances, but that all changed when King K. Rool was announced, and thus many people are confident that Isaac might get in. I still have doubts about Isaac's inclusion in Smash, but who knows, Sakurai might give us a miracle and add Isaac in.

Want: 80%
I really like Isaac in Golden Sun. He's one of the unique characters in Smash and I can see why: He can use earth and plant-based attacks as well as his Psynergy. In addition to that, he can still use his sword in some of his normal attacks as well as Smash attacks.

Abstaining on Felix, since I really don't know much about him and I haven't played The Lost Age, where he's the main character.

Nominations:
Jin Kazama x5

 

[N3ON]

Olimar is also a Miyamoto character. There's no scenario Isaac gets picked over him.

quiet you

 

[False Sense]

@StormCIsaac has enough support to get considered for Ultimate, but I doubt having/maintaining large support for years alone will string a unique, strong impression to Sakurai to change his viewpoint on the character and the franchise.

The issue here is that you assume to know Sakurai's viewpoint on Isaac, or even just that he has a viewpoint on him. Isaac isn't Ridley; he's not a character that Sakurai has gone on record acknowledging and explaining why he wasn't made playable. We have no information on Sakurai's thoughts on Isaac beyond the fact that he wasn't made playable prior. That is not enough information to make any definitive conclusions as any number of reasons could have led to Isaac not making the cut, including the possibility that the thought of making Isaac playable simply never occurred to Sakurai. Yet by saying how Sakurai would need to "change" his viewpoint, you assume he definitively has ruled against Isaac in the past and would need to be heavily persuaded to change his mind. Again, we have no basis for assuming this.

You may be setting yourself for major disappointment if you let Smash screenshots and lack of AT appearances (Small things that may or may not mean something) hold control of your expectations to unusually high optimism.

Please don't put words in my mouth.

 

[VexTheHex]

Isaac popularity doesn't fluctuate as wildly as all those other characters you listed, so seeing one poll with Lip at the top doesn't mean much in the face of 14 polls where Isaac is top 3. A problem with random polling is that timing is everything. If no one knows that you're making a poll, it's literally down to what community you put your survey out to. If one Waluigi fan alerts their entire Waluigi fanbase, then sure that random poll will put Waluigi as top billing, while Ashley is left in the dust because her fanbase didn't know anything about it. The smash ballot, everyone knew about it that mattered for the game. In single vote polls like this, Isaac popularity really stays steady because he is popular world-wide, in multiple regions. You think Lip and Takamaru are going to survive a world-wide poll?

Not sure what you are trying to get at here. Saying one's fan base could screw with results on different polls is true of Isaac as well. Some polls will show him higher cause his fans knew of it where as another group of characters may not of had many fans knowing of it. The whole idea that Isaac is certainly at the top just feels forced as we do not know the true results. All polls and data collected is tiny and bias compared to the true results. How many polls even show Bayonetta even that high? Let's be honest, most of the ones with Isaac, Waluigi, or Chrom as front runners tend to lack Bayonetta anywhere near #1. And yet she won. And you question Lip and Takamaru's position in the West, but Isaac's series was always bigger in the West and smaller in the East. He'd be the reverse of that, though to a smaller scale cause Lip and Takamaru are more retro and forgotten than him. He's like the West Saki and Saki is the East Isaac is probably a closer outlook. What ever happened to poor Saki? He seemed like a cool guy, wonder if the East talk about him like we do of Isaac.

I do think people who are like over 70% on Isaac are crazy optimistic but my optimism for K. Rool paid off. It’s interesting since people rated K. Rool’s chances way higher for the DLC period than this game (where Dixie was rated higher). I guess it’s different now that the man himself has said he’s using the ballot.

Well I was really starting to think Mimikyu was the Pokemon to win the spot and really rallied that he'd get in. It doesn't always work out to start thinking you know who it's going to be. Granted now I'm on the Incineroar and/or Gardevoir train, (with a hint of wonder if we'd get Trainer Moon) but it was still a shock to see Mimikyu get deconfirmed. I give that Isaac took a positive step with Ultimate's fan service outlook, but I think people are overestimating their own favorites as THE favorites. We'll see though.

There's only 1 character that I feel warrants a super high score right now and that's Shadow. But even he may be passed up for Tails!

Olimar is also a Miyamoto character. There's no scenario Isaac gets picked over him.

quiet you

Olimar also brought more to the roster as we had nothing like him. I wasn't exactly expecting him, but I played and loved his series. He brings his own charm and world into Smash pretty well. I'm pretty excited to see if they throw in the Titan Dweevil as a boss, that one can be pretty intense for Smash. Of course it'd be sized up like Olimar was or else Chrom could just step on it and most of the fight would be trying to wipe it off his boot. But a giant spider tank wielding weapons could be very fun.

One day we will see Pikmin 4. One day. :<

 

[PK_Wonder]

Isaac 50%
An interesting debate to read here today. I think Isaac is the most likely non-echo at this point, but 50% is the highest I am willing to go. So far this game has been all about fan service for the core Nintendo fan, but a trend for the existing picks means only so much for the remaining ones. If you went by sites like Smashboards, you might think Isaac is a contender for the most demanded remaining character. But on the other hand Smashboards' population is lucky to represent even represent 1% of the total number of people who have ever purchased or played a Smash game. That said Golden Sun is an acclaimed game, it's certainly not totally forgotten, and to this this day the first two games are cited as some of the best jrpgs and GBA games ever made. Isaac is less well known than Ridley and KKR but significant core fan demand might be all it takes once again to get into Ultimate.

Felix: 10%
I am much less convinced than many of you that Isaac will be lucky enough to come paired with an Echo. Isaac will have overcome so much to be here at all, this would be overkill and even the average Isaac fan wasn't asking for or expecting this. And honestly a palette swap would suffice.

Nominate: Amaterasu x10

 

[Erureido]

I'm abstaining for both characters today since I have little time right now to post a rating. I'll also abstain from predictions for once and jump straight to my nominations.

------

Nominations

Leo (Fire Emblem Fates): x5

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Isaac
Chance: 70% - He has tons of fan support and it's more than obvious this game is all about fan service with Ridley, K. Rool, Simon, Chrom, and the Inklings joining the battle. That picture seems a bit suspicious as well.
Want: 100% - He deserves it at this point. He's the last of the Big 4 (Ridley/Palutena/K. Rool/Isaac) to not be in, and the series could get a revival if Isaac is in Smash.

Felix
Chance: 5% - If and only if Isaac gets in, and even then, only as an echo. But Richter proves it's possible for a more obscure pick to make it in this game.
Want: 10% - As long as Isaac's in, I wouldn't be opposed to him!

Nominations:
Frank West x5

 

[Nemuresu]

Isaac:
Chance: 80% - Sakurai's choosing characters based on the Ballot. Character's been popular since Brawl/Sm4sh days. AT absent in last game. Good enough reasons to think he will be in.
Want: 30% - Never played Golden Sun, but I know about his abilities and I think he can be interesting as a fighter.

Felix:
Chance: 10% - I really only give him that rating because nobody saw Richter coming, and even then, I don't think we should expect any more "new character with an echo" combos.
Want: 0% - Already said I never played GS, let alone GS2.

 

[Sabrewulf238]

I guess I'll give my take on Isaac...

Chance - 70%

I do believe the tweet is a reference to Golden Sun. It's not for any single reason either. There's the positioning of the party members, the camera angle, the dragon and the coliseum. There's also the fact that I don't believe it to be a Monster Hunter reference. (due to most cover art taking place in the wilderness)

There's also the exit poll, which Isaac is currently at number 1. I don't think we can ignore the exit poll because numerous characters on it like Sukapon and Galacta Knight have already appeared in the game in some form. Which makes me think the exit poll is reasonably accurate.

Want - 100%

Felix chance - 15%

It could happen, I think it's not particularly likely though. They may focus on a more popular echo.

Felix want - 100%

 

[Metocles]

Not sure what you are trying to get at here. Saying one's fan base could screw with results on different polls is true of Isaac as well. Some polls will show him higher cause his fans knew of it where as another group of characters may not of had many fans knowing of it. The whole idea that Isaac is certainly at the top just feels forced as we do not know the true results. All polls and data collected is tiny and bias compared to the true results. How many polls even show Bayonetta even that high? Let's be honest, most of the ones with Isaac, Waluigi, or Chrom as front runners tend to lack Bayonetta anywhere near #1. And yet she won. And you question Lip and Takamaru's position in the West, but Isaac's series was always bigger in the West and smaller in the East. He'd be the reverse of that, though to a smaller scale cause Lip and Takamaru are more retro and forgotten than him. He's like the West Saki and Saki is the East Isaac is probably a closer outlook. What ever happened to poor Saki? He seemed like a cool guy, wonder if the East talk about him like we do of Isaac.

Yeah, this is not true in the least. You must not be a student of statistics at all if you're making this statement. You don't need to know all 1.8 million results of a 1.8 million voter poll to get a good idea of how the votes laid. If you have a good representative sample, then a sample size like this one is more than enough to give you an accurate pulse as to how popularity is going to really turn out. Historically speaking, Isaac's polling position is steadily at the top so I don't know what the surprise is here that he's popular.

What does it matter that popularity in Japan isn't has hot for Isaac as it would be another character. Remember that the ballot was a worldwide poll. How much voting power is Saki going to have realistically compared to other characters? You're really selling Isaac short here trying to compare apples to oranges. Isaac popularity blows Saki out of the water in spades. If we can't come to terms with that, I don't think I can lead you to anything in this discussion.

 

[VexTheHex]

Yeah, this is not true in the least. You must not be a student of statistics at all if you're making this statement. You don't need to know all 1.8 million results of a 1.8 million voter poll to get a good idea of how the votes laid. If you have a good representative sample, then a sample size like this one is more than enough to give you an accurate pulse as to how popularity is going to really turn out. Historically speaking, Isaac's polling position is steadily at the top so I don't know what the surprise is here that he's popular.

What does it matter that popularity in Japan isn't has hot for Isaac as it would be another character. Remember that the ballot was a worldwide poll. How much voting power is Saki going to have realistically compared to other characters? You're really selling Isaac short here trying to compare apples to oranges. Isaac popularity blows Saki out of the water in spades. If we can't come to terms with that, I don't think I can lead you to anything in this discussion.

Ugh, just cause someone takes a sample doesn't mean it's a valid representation of the whole. You have to take into account the bias, lies, or double dippers. Not sure how you think you can take someone on the internet (where they can easily lie, how many leakers do we got now?) taking a group of people from a site (where there will be bias, there's always bias) and running a poll (where double dippers can inflate scores, rigged election!)'s results as anything valid. I don't argue Isaac likely did solid or quite well. I argue that people trying to shove that he was runner up as truth are spreading assumed information as factual.

Even in water samples can deliver different results depending on where they are taken. You really think highly opinionated young adults and teenagers are going to be 100% on the internet about their findings?

Edit- Also, your link shows Magnemite as more popular than Chrom, Crash, and Midna? What even is that?

 

[N3ON]

Edit- Also, your link shows Magnemite as more popular than Chrom, Crash, and Midna? What even is that?

Magnemite is a big meme pick in Japan. Look at where all of Magnemite's requests come from.

 

[aarchak]

Magnemite is a big meme pick in Japan. Look at where all of Magnemite's requests come from.

Wow, magnemite is their meme pick? The Japanese need to step up their meme game.

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Wow, magnemite is their meme pick? The Japanese need to step up their meme game.

The scary thing is it's an actual video game character owned by Nintendo. So Magnemite is technically a viable choice....

Can you imagine the next direct rolls around and the closing trailer reveals Magnemite as a playable fighter.

 

[Deleted member]

Have to abstain on both today.


Noms:
Metroidvania-like adventure mode x10

Well, given that we have 1 more day to rate them:

Isaac
Chance: 60%
Want: 65%

Ultimate is pretty much Isaac's "now or never" time, given that the latest Smash's roster seems to focus primarily on long-requested newcomers.
I unfortunately didn't have the occasion to play to a Golden Sun game and I still want to, but I'd welcome Isaac with open arms either way.

Felix
Chance: 60%
Want: 65%

Same scores as Isaac as Felix is prime Echo potential from him.
Again, not have played to a Golden Sun game but I'd still welcome him.


Noms:
Metroidvania-lke adventure mode x10

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Isaac:

Chance: 50% - Isaac is very difficult to rate, because while he's popular he's never been an absolute top pick, but he's still only just under that threshold imo. I can see it going both ways, a proper 50/50 imo. Even if it doesn't happen I don't expect his AT to return, so there's always DLC (which I'm not counting here).

Want: 70% - Not someone I have any relation to myself, but it would be a great story if he made it in, I always like the idea of a character getting his chance almost entirely because of fan demand (K. Rool and Geno also fit in this category), and Isaac fans would definitely deserve it for their perseverance. Besides, of all the sword characters in Smash Isaac seems like he has the most moveset potential.

Felix:

Chance: 25% - First Isaac has to get in, and even then he's not exactly guaranteed to follow him.

Want: 40% - I can't really ever be disappointed with an echo, but I can't say I'd care much for his inclusion either.

 

[Souldin]

Isaac (Golden Sun series)
Chances: 70%

Isaac is a character who has been popping up in a great deal of leaks and rumours, giving credence to this kind of... expectation that he'll be in the roster, likewise with others such as Skull Kid. It seems that for those trying to make a convincing leak, they throw in Isaac as a character to help make it more believable. I will admit, thanks to the Ballot and his lack of an Assist Trophy appearance so far, he does have decent chances which are certainly stronger than they were back in the SSB4 days... but like all characters, he's hardly guaranteed.​

I've given him such a high chance rating for those previously mentioned reasons, along with how I believe we will get further Nintendo series represented (there are six stage spots left, and a new series represented has so far corresponded to receiving a new stage as well) and that at least one of them will be a handheld oriented series to counterpart Splatoon and as symbolism to Nintendo Switch's merger of the two. The obstacles facing Isaac are of course, is relevancy and competition; a Rhythm Heaven character or Dillon from Dillon's Rolling Western would fill in the handheld category whilst being more relevant and have more likelihood of future games. Other such candidates are also more visually distinct, as whilst I have no doubt that Isaac could have a unique move-set, he also looks like he'd be commonly mistaken for a Fire Emblem character (a minor thing; I took off about a point or two for it). From what I hear, his last game didn't do too well either.​

​

Aside from those aspects though his chances are pretty solid. He seems to have had a pretty consistent support base through Brawl to now and his popularity has since grown tremendously; he's hardly guaranteed but it seems the sun is shining brighter on his chances than it ever has before.​

Want: 53%

I have no personal interest in Isaac and have never played any Golden Sun games (although I am interested in said series), but I'm always a fan of Nintendo properties getting represented with playable reps. His games seem fun and he seems like he plenty to pull from. I believe he uses Earth magic primarily, which I do like a lot, along with generally liking his overall design. If he gets in, whilst not a personal choice, I'll probably still give a small cheer all the same.​

Felix (Golden Sun series)
Chances: 37%

I'm assuming this is as an Echo... right? I've heard of him, and I remember in previous research (though this was a long time ago) believing he could have his own spot and a unique move-set, but I doubt he would get that if he was included at this point in time. If as DLC or the next game... maybe, but otherwise I see his chances as an Echo. It says he is a Venus adept (was I right in thinking he could have a unique move-set... cannot remember), like Isaac, so it seems like they could Echo off one another.​

In regards to him being an Echo, he would have competition with Isaac's son; Matthew. That said, Matthew looks pretty similar to Isaac, whereas Felix would bring a far more distinct looking Echo that would avoid any potential confusion.​

Want: 35%

I'm not a fan of Echo Fighters, and it seems rather... disappointing if a series two representatives have pretty much the same move-set. He doesn't really add a villain to the roster, so he's not filling in any underrepresented criteria... aside from Golden Sun of course. If he were to have a unique move-set, then this would increase a bit, though given the limited size of the roster and how there are many other Nintendo series yet to be represented, probably not by much.​

Honestly, my Want rating here is hard to say, given we don't if Isaac is in the game yet or not.​

So I see we're back to 5 nominations per day... should've have voted the other day on the Story Mode ratings but ah well:
Nominations: x5 Fatal Frame Protagonist

 

[THE 6r]

Isaac:
Chance: 75%
The leaks, rumors, polls, and that Rathlos tweet all seem to point to Isaac being included in the game in some capacity. Sakurai has stated the ballot will be a major factor in deciding newcomers and given that Isaac has consistently had popularity through the Brawl and Smash 4 days, it is realistic to expect Isaac to be somewhere in this game.

Want: 100%
I have never been able to get my hands on a GS game, but I am dying to play one. Isaac would be a story akin to Ridley and K. Rool where he gets in thanks to a vocal and active fanbase. I love the character's design and think he has a lot of moves potential that would differentiate him from the rest of the cast. Plus, it means we get to see him in HD, which would be HYPE.


Edit: I forgot Felix, oops.

Felix:

Chance: 33.33333333...%
If Isaac were to get an echo, Felix would be the obvious choice. Both are Venus adepts and the main protagonists of their respective games. Felix would most likely be slower, tanker, and more defensive then Isaac, like in his original games. Richter proved new characters could get echos and that they didn't need to be high ballot picks, they just have to be able to fit the base moves well. Felix would fall into both of these categories.

Want: 80%
If it happens, I'm down with it. More GS would be a welcome thing from Nintendo. I love Felix's design and think he would fit well in Smash.

 

[BluePikmin11]

The issue here is that you assume to know Sakurai's viewpoint on Isaac, or even just that he has a viewpoint on him. Isaac isn't Ridley; he's not a character that Sakurai has gone on record acknowledging and explaining why he wasn't made playable. We have no information on Sakurai's thoughts on Isaac beyond the fact that he wasn't made playable prior. That is not enough information to make any definitive conclusions as any number of reasons could have led to Isaac not making the cut, including the possibility that the thought of making Isaac playable simply never occurred to Sakurai. Yet by saying how Sakurai would need to "change" his viewpoint, you assume he definitively has ruled against Isaac in the past and would need to be heavily persuaded to change his mind. Again, we have no basis for assuming this.

It is true that Sakurai has not directly said anything about Isaac's exclusion. But, I can however, gather sources that lead to a strong possibility that Isaac was likely considered in Brawl, starting with this:

https://www.smashbros.com/wii/en_us/items/assist/assist01.html

Assist Trophies allow you to enjoy even more characters who couldn’t quite make it as playable fighters. You may even see some that only the most dedicated fans will recognize, so you’ll have to look forward to them.

Considering the hundreds of Nintendo IPs Sakurai decides to represent in content via Assist Trophies, trophies, and characters in each Smash Bros. game, considering a wide range of characters from IPs that Sakurai is well aware were obscure in the West such as Ayumi Tachibana and Marth to keeping track of IPs that were very successful such as Game and Watch, Brain Age, Animal Crossing, it is not a stretch to assume that Golden Sun was one of those successful franchises that was seriously considered back in Brawl's project plan in 2005, especially when that series was almost as successful as Pikmin at the time, with Isaac being notable enough in fan-demand and moveset potential to be a candidate to spend time to consider him in Brawl.

The chances of Isaac not being a serious thought of consideration for a fighter to Sakurai back in Brawl is very very low.

Of course, fans have their own reasons to thinking why Isaac was excluded in Brawl, one of which are possible reasons for his exclusion:

>There was competition with other new, successful IPs at the time.

Nothing was stopping Isaac from being included. There was not one tight spot for a new Nintendo series newcomer. In fact, had Sakurai opened his mind on Villager back in Brawl, we would have gotten multiple new Nintendo series represented in characters (excluding the retros and "surprise" characters, which are seemingly kept to one spot per Smash game). I think nothing was stopping Sakurai from including multiple new series per Smash game, especially with Smash 4, where Sakurai added Xenoblade, Wii Fit, and Animal Crossing. Golden Sun likely had an open spot to be included in Brawl, but that never came to be.

>Console franchises were more important than handheld franchises at the time.

I personally think that a franchise being exclusive to handhelds is not an actual issue, especially when Sakurai has added a character whose games were successful, but handheld exclusive at the time of Melee (Mr. Game and Watch comes to mind). Maybe handheld franchises are held to a higher standard of success at the time prior to Ultimate to get seriously considered for Smash, as Golden Sun was pretty miniscule compared to the likes of other bigger handheld franchises such as Nintendogs/Brain Age in Brawl and Style Savvy/Art Academy/Big Brain Academy in Smash 4. Although, Ultimate may change things to make his standards lower.

Maybe Sakurai will be more lenient on choosing more newcomers from handheld franchises that were decent hits back then for Ultimate's project plan, with the ballot fan response outcry maybe making an impact to Sakurai on how Golden Sun as a franchise made an notable impact in Nintendo's history. That is the only possibility to which I believe could open to the inclusion of Isaac, but I do not think Sakurai seeing that high demand for Isaac for the third time in a row will heavily influence his decision to finally give Golden Sun playable representation.

Returning assists in Ultimate from unrepresented handheld franchises like Starfy, Dr. Kawashima, Nintendog, Nikki and the several very popular candidates that were relegated to Assists such as Waluigi/Krystal kinda makes me think that the most the ballot will do for Isaac is just making him return as an Assist Trophy (with returning GS tracks from Smash 4 and Brawl) and nothing more.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

So I have some good news and some bad news.

The good news is that the update will be serviceable. I still will need to get some calcs done, but most likely it will still look good enough for a quick revamp of the OP that will be able to be updated more easily. I originally was planning for one update, but given that I leave for school tomorrow and am packing today, that does not seem realistic right now.

The bad news is the update is getting pushed back to Tuesday. I know this update has been pushed back more than Brawl was, but I just want to make sure every detail is right. The update will be much quicker once I get to school as there I have access to a dual screen moniter which cuts update time down significantly.

Further good news, I am glad with how discussion is today. I know there is some arguing, but people are generally posting analysis. Right now this is shaping up to one of my favorite days just because of that.

Now, I have some time right now, let me get my scores in.

Isaac

75% Chance

At first, I was more skeptical about Isaac. While he had fan demand, we had next to no idea about what direction Ultimate was going in. All we knew was Inklings, Mario, Link, Jimmy Neutron, Tony the Tiger from Cereal, Trouple King, and Boss Baby hiding behind a pillar. Going in from that mindest, it is easy to be more skeptical of Isaac. Simply put, with limited information, we were forced to make the assumption that a similar mindset to Smash 4 would be employed.

The E3 direct made Isaac seem more of a real possibility with each reveal. A massive amount of past stages, one of the most requested newcomers who had been denied twice, echoes pointing to more characters being added to please as many fans as possible, and every veteran coming back. Ridley and the vets were probably the biggest hints that this game was going for fanservice. While this thread is not great evidence of the general community, it is a convenience sample. Outside of Pichu and Young Link, every veteran ranked highly in our want scores. In this game getting above a 50% in want, hell even a 45%, is a good score for want. Ridley was at the time of E3 2018 our third most wanted newcomer. Let me once again preface that these scores do not reflect the whole community, but they give us a decent convenience sample.

8/8 gives us even more fuel that fanservice is #1. Assist trophies like Krystal and Shovel Knight show that even if Sakurai is not adding characters based on the ballot only, it is still being considered. While it is unlikely Simon did particularly great on the ballot, the fact that Castlevania is such a huge franchise does show the desire to make this the ultimate smash bros. The biggest piece of evidence is K Rool, a character that was in a terrible position of relevance making the jump, primarily due to his huge fan demand. Sakurai would later state that K Rool was one of the top ballot pics, giving us more evidence that Sakurai is going for fanservice.

So how does this amount of fanservice tie into Isaac? Simply put he is one of the most requested characters that could appear. Isaac has had vocal support since pre brawl. Even if GS is dead, I feel that that vocal support would help Isaac greatly.

Further helping Isaac is while we do know Assist Trophies tie into fanservice, we have not seen Isaac yet. Simply put, out of the Assist Trophies we have yet to see, only Isaac, Shadow, Isabelle, Skull Kid, and to a lesser extent Saki seem like they could become fighters. I feel that if he was an assist, we would have seen him by now. Granted he was not seen earlier in previous games but let's be realistic right now, they know there is strong demand for Isaac.

Isaac does have the hurdle of relevancy. Unlike K Rool, Isaac is from an unrepresented franchise. With K Rool, the DK series and games sell well and are popular, so adding a character who is popular, even if they have not appeared in a long time, makes sense. Some may argue that due to GS being dead, it would seem like Isaac is not a high priority in spite of his fan demand. Personally, I feel for the most part, the relevancy arguement is not going to be effective in this smash, but not for the reason most people talk about.

Relevancy is not going to be important because not much happened for Nintendo between Smash Wii U and Ultimate. Splatoon was a success, thats why we have Inklings. In terms of big games that came out since Smash Wii U , you have Star Fox Zero, Xenoblade Chronicles X, Mario Maker, and if you push the definition of big #FE for the Wii U. The 3DS has had some big hits of its own like Kirby, FE Fates, FE Echoes, Metroid Samus Returns, Pokemon Gen 7, and Mario and Luigi remakes. If you want to dip into the switch, which is hard since many of these games might be seen as too recent, you can make arguements for ARMS and Xenoblade 2. XB2 while new does get away with some stuff due to the fact concept art for Rex and Pyra does match up with the development timeframe (I swear if any of you bring up their facial animations you are being ignorant the initial sketches were done for those two at least before April 6th 2016), but if you look at potential targets for relevancy, they don't seem strong. Outside of Rex and Pyra/Elma , Bandana Dee and a gen 7 pokemon, there are not many characters that you can really argue for relevancy.

While relevancy might be a factor, I feel that for the most part it will not be due to these reasons. Overall, Isaac is a likely choice, but far from a lock in my eyes.


100% Want

GS is good. I could go on, but I do not have the same emotional connection to Isaac as many of his supporters. Part of why I support his is because of them. They have wanted Isaac since Brawl speculation for some of them. More and more people flock to Isaac, and simply put I want people to be happy. I mainly want Isaac because I feel his moveset would be interesting. I love the idea of a terraformer, it is part of the reason I am such a big Lycanroc supporter. Isaac could do that as well, and I feel it would make him so much more than just another swordsman. Also GS has awesome music, and lets face it we could use more remixes.

Felix

25% Chance

Well if Isaac makes it in, I could see them going for Felix as an echo due to the fan demand of Isaac and how similar Felix is to him. I feel he is more likely than Matthew in the regard that he is not a Generation Xerox of Isaac, making him easier to distinguish. Speculating on echoes we have no evidence or clues to is hard, but I feel Felix has a good shot.

100% Want

Sure, why not. I like his design, and if Isaac has the great moveset I hope he has, Felix would be welcome as well. I feel that his earlier role of an antagonist of sorts would make him interesting as well in Smash.

Nominating Ninten x 5

 

[Metocles]

Ugh, just cause someone takes a sample doesn't mean it's a valid representation of the whole. You have to take into account the bias, lies, or double dippers. Not sure how you think you can take someone on the internet (where they can easily lie, how many leakers do we got now?) taking a group of people from a site (where there will be bias, there's always bias) and running a poll (where double dippers can inflate scores, rigged election!)'s results as anything valid. I don't argue Isaac likely did solid or quite well. I argue that people trying to shove that he was runner up as truth are spreading assumed information as factual.

Even in water samples can deliver different results depending on where they are taken. You really think highly opinionated young adults and teenagers are going to be 100% on the internet about their findings?

Edit- Also, your link shows Magnemite as more popular than Chrom, Crash, and Midna? What even is that?

And just because someone takes a sample doesn't mean it can't be part of the whole either, it depends on what factors are part of the polling process. Yes, there's bias, lies and double dipping happening. That's going to be a lot of background noise in your sample that you sift through. People that lie on their ballot is going to disappear into nothing votes, people that have bias in this kind of poll is exactly what Sakurai is looking for; it's a desired character poll after all. And double dipping, sure. It's better to have a quantification than run on feelings for certain characters chances, then you just raise your expectations out of thin air.

I don't even think Isaac was the runner up or anything like that, but a top five is very possible. In a gigantic poll, some shifting can occur and Isaac can easily fall behind Banjo and Geno and whatnot. But going too far into either direction is a bit unrealistic as well. If you split the ballot into tiers, Isaac is near the top.

As far as water samples and people go, you have to know the data that you're looking at. A poll taken for popularity is going to tell you very different things than data that you collect sampling water. You correct for different things in both cases. For popularity, of course there is the possibility that the findings could be altered by the researchers which is why you check out their sources and data. That spreadsheet has all of that and you can go look at those polls if you really wanted. It's not perfect, but it's not a bad resource to refer to. Ultimately, we'll find out by who the characters that appear in the game are in the end, and we don't have to wait long at all.

 

[ferioku]

Abstaining this round, except for Isaac's chance. I don't know enough about either for want.

Isaac gets a 35% chance from me.

I think the best way to think of it is that Isaac doesn't have a replacement Assist Trophy [something that fills the void left behind by Isaac]. Skull Kid is in almost an identical situation, but he has replacements for his AT and his abilities as an AT (the Moon, Ramblin' Evil Mushroom) and benefits from not needing a stage, which might be big. Isaac has a 1% chance of coming without a stage, and therefore any songs. If 103 is it then he drops to 1% because never say never, and he might qualify for retro rep. If 103 isn't it, it's still only 35% because they could just bring back his AT since he has neither a series replacement nor an effect replacement.

Not like I'd be upset at his inclusion, [seems interesting enough, has a greater story to tell about saving his franchise like saving King K. Rool from obscurity] but I kinda find over 70%'s pretty strange when he's almost guaranteed to need a stage.

Isaac has multiple replacement Assist Trophies to fill the void, which WILL have the exact same impact as his brawl assist trophy(Felix, Garet, and Mathew to name a few).

Damn why do so many speak without knowledge of the series... ¬_¬

 

[Troykv]

Isaac

Chance: 30%

The ballot is a legit tool in his side now; from one of the largest followings the Smash Community had ever got; relevancy can still be an obstacule for a character like him; but to a lesser extent now.

Want: 55%

I would be happy for their fans.

Felix:

Chance: 15%

His chances are pretty much an "if Isaac happens", he would work as an echo fighter.

Want: 50%

Nothing special I have to say about him.

__________________________

Predictions:

Who we're predicting this time?

Nominations:

Ninten x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

From previous ratings to this new rating, we have gone from assuming that Isaac's chances were low because of Golden Sun being dead to suddenly applying the K. Rool older character argument to Isaac when that was not even the character's main issue to begin with. That older character logic may or may not actually apply to newcomers from unrepresented Nintendo franchises. I think it is a bad idea to conclude that K. Rool helps Isaac, as we do not know if the extent goes as far as unrepresented Nintendo franchises. For now, we can only definitively conclude that K. Rool helps newcomers from already represented franchises such as Skull Kid and Geno.

 

[Organization XIII]

From previous ratings to this new rating, we have gone from assuming that Isaac's chances were low because of Golden Sun being dead to suddenly applying the K. Rool older character argument to Isaac when that was not even the character's main issue to begin with. That older character logic may or may not actually apply to newcomers from unrepresented Nintendo franchises. I think it is a bad idea to conclude that K. Rool helps Isaac, as we don't know if the extent goes as far as unrepresented Nintendo franchises. For now, we can only definitively conclude that K. Rool helps newcomers from already represented franchises such as Skull Kid and Geno.

That's ridiculous. Why would being from an unrepped series not benefit from relevance being thrown out the window just the same as characters from repped series? Of course, K Rool helps Isaac. His biggest issue for this game was not being relevant due to his series being dead and his biggest strength has always been his large popularity. K Rool shows relevance is not an issue and popularity is the strongest factor which in every way helps Isaac. You can't just cherry pick who you want K Rool's circumstances to apply for.

 

[Metocles]

From previous ratings to this new rating, we have gone from assuming that Isaac's chances were low because of Golden Sun being dead to suddenly applying the K. Rool older character argument to Isaac when that was not even the character's main issue to begin with. That older character logic may or may not actually apply to newcomers from unrepresented Nintendo franchises. I think it is a bad idea to conclude that K. Rool helps Isaac, as we don't know if the extent goes as far as unrepresented Nintendo franchises. For now, we can only definitively conclude that K. Rool helps newcomers from already represented franchises such as Skull Kid and Geno.

The castle of relevancy is destroyed. Sakurai referenced the ballot in his latest interview. Ridley and K. Rool are obscure choices in their own right that have run in Smash speculation circles for over 10 years. Isaac and Geno are two others that have done the same. You're going a step further, when you really don't even have to. Why are you trying to logic out and differentiate new franchise reps in smash from new reps from franchises already in smash? All that really speaks here is the smash ballot, not any kind of arbitrary rules that we can't even put any weight behind.

Isaac having longstanding fan popularity and this smash being confirmed to include popular characters is the change here. Realistically, that's all Isaac's chances amount to in any scenario. If he's voted in. He'll never be chosen under other criteria because all your reasons would be valid for other smash game cycles. Making any other conclusion is jumping through unnecessary hoops.

 

[bassem6]

Isaac has a 70% chance imo. He presumably did well on the smash ballot based on all of the other fan polls that have been examined. Sakurai tweeted that pic of rathalos fighting shulk, Marth and link which I’m pretty sure was a golden sun reference. If I was positive about that tweet being a GS reference then I’d put his chances at 100%.

I’d say Felix has a 15% chance of being an echo because of Isaacs high chance of being in and Felix being the other main character of the GS series. Sakurai is really on point with the fan service so I think this is Isaac and felix’s best chance yet!

 

[Ridrool64]

Isaac has multiple replacement Assist Trophies to fill the void, which WILL have the exact same impact as his brawl assist trophy(Felix, Garet, and Mathew to name a few).

While that's true, Isaac currently has nothing like what his Brawl Assist did. The difference is that he doesn't have that YET. While they can show up if he does, they currently have not. If, say, we see a Pokémon in a Poké Ball use a move functionally identical to Isaac's Brawl assist, then he has a replacement. I guess I didn't make it clear.

 

[NessAtc.]

While that's true, Isaac currently has nothing like what his Brawl Assist did. The difference is that he doesn't have that YET. While they can show up if he does, they currently have not. If, say, we see a Pokémon in a Poké Ball use a move functionally identical to Isaac's Brawl assist, then he has a replacement. I guess I didn't make it clear.

We don't have anything replacing Helirin, Ray Mk III, or Barbara either so I don't really see the point you're making

 

[BluePikmin11]

I do not think what I am saying is cherry picking. Sakurai treats each type of newcomer differently for each Smash.

The way Sakurai goes to approach Pokemon newcomers is different, figuring out what Pokemon will be heavily promoted when the new generation comes and whether or not they would work well as a fighter.

The way Sakurai chooses a retro newcomer is different, figuring out which classic character from a franchise originating the 80s/90s is the most popular among fans and finding out their distinct traits and abilities.

The way Sakurai chooses the "surprise" character each Smash game is different, choosing an old character whose old franchise has major significance to Nintendo's history.

The way Sakurai chooses clones/echos is very different, as the only requirement needed is that the character matches with the original counterpart well enough to produce an easy, fan-pleasing character for the roster.

The way Sakurai chooses third-party newcomers is different, as he must figure out whether that third-party carries some degree of history, and if its a guest fighter that both companies are willing to agree and allow Sakurai to have full creative control with the character's moveset.

The way Sakurai chooses newcomers from already established franchises is different and can be broken down to several types: The ones that get heavily marketed gain notable roles in several titles (Rosalina comes to mind), the ones that have been central to the franchise playing important roles (Zelda, Palutena, Bowser, Bowser Jr., Diddy Kong, King Dedede, Ridley, and a multitude of other characters come to mind), and the ones that get in through pure game promotion (Ike, Robin, Corrin).

The way Sakurai chooses newcomers from unrepresented IPs is different, as Sakurai checks out whether that IP has been very successful in sales and/or critical acclaim to be implement the character as a fighter. (Inkling is an example of this. A proven successful IP that grew very popular worldwide and garnered huge sales, being just in time to be seriously considered for Ultimate's project plan.)

The way you guys make it seem as if K. Rool helps Isaac in any significant degree, it feels like comparing apples to oranges. Yes, both have the ballot to get considered, but that is the full extent of their similarities. The way Sakurai could have approached both characters at the time of the Ultimate's project plan likely would have been different goals for each. Should Isaac be considered, he will most likely get judged in a similar manner to Inkling.

 

[Organization XIII]

The way Sakurai chooses newcomers from already established franchises is different and can be broken down to several types: The ones that get heavily marketed gain notable roles in several titles (Rosalina comes to mind), the ones that have been central to the franchise playing important roles (Zelda, Palutena, Bowser, Bowser Jr., Diddy Kong, King Dedede, Ridley, and a multitude of other characters come to mind), and the ones that get in through pure game promotion (Ike, Robin, Corrin).

The way Sakurai chooses newcomers from unrepresented IPs is different, as Sakurai checks out whether that IP has been very successful in sales and/or critical acclaim to be implement the character as a fighter. (Inkling is an example of this. A proven successful IP that grew very popular worldwide and garnered huge sales, being just in time to be seriously considered for Ultimate's project plan.)

The way you guys make it seem as if K. Rool helps Isaac in any significant degree, it feels like comparing apples to oranges. Yes, both have the ballot to get considered, but that is the full extent of their similarities. The way Sakurai could have approached both characters at the time of the Ultimate's project plan likely would have been different for each. Should Isaac be considered, he will most likely get judged in a similar manner to Inkling.

No, because literally every character so far has had popularity cited as the reason Sakurai added. Well except Inklings as far as I'm aware but I don't think we need Sakurai to state the obvious there and Richter who was added since Simon was basically part Richter anyway. So that means Chrom, Dark Samus, Simon, K Rool, and Ridley all got into due to popularity. The fact that they were from series already in Smash meant nothing aside from echoes having bases so it doesn't matter that King K Rool was from DK, he was added because he was popular. Him not being relevant didn't stop his inclusion. That means it's not apples to oranges because Sakurai didn't say "K Rool was the highest voted DK character so I went with him," no he just said K Rool was popular full stop. If popularity is the main factor over relevance as K Rool inclusion indicates then parallels can be drawn for other characters namely Isaac who is in the exact same set of circumstances. You are placing way too much emphasis on Dk and Metroid being a series with characters already being in when that had nothing to do with his or Ridley's inclusion.

 

[NessAtc.]

entire legit wall

Point 1: the only times he's done that have been with Lucario and Greninja. And Lucario notably gained traction in the Pokemon series after his appearance in Brawl.
Point 2: I didn't see anyone discussing R.O.B back in Brawl, but ok sure w/e
Point 3: The only argument you can drive at that for Smash 4 with that "old" point is Little Mac, and he had a game recently in relation to Smash 4.
Point 4: Fair enough, but Chrom easily took more work than any other echo by far.
Point 5: Two week ballot winner or no, Bayonetta defies that initial point.
Point 6: Fair point, but you're forgetting that for years Sakurai has said he could not make Ridley playable, and literally said he was only doing it now because of the fan demand behind him.
Point 7: Xenoblade. It did not peak in popularity until they were both featured in Smash.

 

[Metocles]

But there's even more to debunk what you're saying directly. Shulk was chosen for the Sm4sh roster before it had any worldwide popularity. Roy was chosen before the game he was in was even widely released. Pit is the torpedo that sinks the unrepresented IPs claim and buries it for good. You're really cutting it close between the line of seeing what Sakurai generally chooses and thinking you know how Sakurai ends up deciding to include a character. All while ignoring the fact that some of the selection process this time is focused and ordered for him already because they've really decided to follow through with the ballot. We've seen that in what content we've gotten already.

And Golden Sun is not insignificant in the least in terms of Nintendo's history. The first game was on the back of the box for the GBA and a really successful launch title. The second game was on the back of the box for the GBA SP and also clipped over a million copies. A million copies for a completely new franchise that had no game branding to hitch its post to while being an RPG. A genre that is considered successful if you get less than half a million copies. On the first attempt. Many people that underplay his series success and popularity really must have not been around at the time or they like to revise what actually happened to a great degree. Golden Sun was prospected to be the next great Nintendo IP - it outsold and had more global popularity at the time than F-Zero, Pikmin, Fire Emblem, Mother and Kid Icarus just to name a few. I don't even know why I have to explain this part because it's largely unnecessary. He's a popular character that is Nintendo 1st party and in all likelihood did well on the ballot. That's it.

 

[BluePikmin11]

We will just have to agree to disagree on this debate Organization. I do not think they are in the exact circumstances at all.

I prefer not to think about just a few factors and conclude a newcomer's chances to be high.

That kind of similar thought process came with Ashley, whose support thread I followed quite closely through out Ultimate speculation, with most concluding that her promotion, recency, large support base, and unique potential was just enough to be a likely candidate, prior to the witch's Assist reveal. I get similar vibes with the way most raters are concluding Isaac's chances in this thread.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

We will just have to agree to disagree on this debate Organization. I do not think they are in the exact circumstances at all.

I prefer not to think about just a few factors and conclude a newcomer's chances to be high.

That kind of similar thought process came with Ashley, whose support thread I followed quite closely through out Ultimate speculation, with most concluding that her promotion, recency, large support base, and unique potential was just enough to be a likely candidate, prior to the witch's Assist reveal. I get similar vibes with the way most raters are concluding Isaac's chances in this thread.

Ashley's large support base was a bit of an odd situation in that it ballooned after E3 2018. I don't doubt that she had some popularity beforehand as shown by the SourceGaming Japan poll, she did rank pretty decently, but I think Ashley was very much the type of bandwagon character (Not a negative evaluation) that people saw chances in. Especially is Sakurai was playing by traditional rules for Smash: I.E. The most recent and relevant characters, of which there were comparatively few between Smash 4 and Ultimate. The whole Ashley fervor was fascinating to watch, but definitely seemed to get out of hand the more I paid attention. I wanted her in to be fair, but I become less and less convinced over time about her chances. I made a larger post in the Ashley thread talking about all of this though.

Isaac plays a little differently. In part because Sakurai is playing differently. Since it's confirmed he is taking influence from the ballot and taking into account fan requests, Isaac suddenly has a SIGNIFICANTLY better chance. Is that a guaranteed lock? No. But he goes from an unlikely to a real candidate in that one change of character selection. He had some huge support around the time of Smash 4 from what I remember (To the point where it felt like he eclipsed the Geno hype for that specific game making the third of the trinity a little muddied in my mind). Isaac also has support dating back to Brawl. He's a legacy character that we've seen requested. We've also seen just how passionate fans of the series can be, which is something I'm sure Sakurai has taken notice of. Whether or not that's enough for him to be in the game is anyone's guess though.

Ashley has been a much more steady build-up support and character wise. She was just starting to take off around the ballot days from what I've seen, which puts her in a bit of an unfortunate spot. She's also coming from a series that has such actually pretty great representation. Wario is heavily influenced from WarioWare, and the two WarioWare stages are actually excellent representations of the series unlike some other stages (Pac-Land.....). She also has challenges from other popular WarioWare characters to be completely fair...

Anyway, my ratings:

Isaac

Chance - 55%

He's remained a pretty notable face of speculation and is one of the largest fan requested characters left standing after the confirmations of King K. Rool and Ridley. The only even comparable communities I've seen at this point are really Bandanna Dee and Geno with regards to long-standing support. He represents a beloved RPG series from handhelds, with a lot of unique elements to be called upon for representation in the game. One of things that especially helps him is the fact that he could use a completely unique moveset based upon the Venus Djinn and the various Psy attacks he uses. He wouldn't just be another generic swordsman, he'd actually contribute to the vastly under-utilized magic users in a big way. With his long-standing fan requested status, I'll put him just above a toss-up, leaning towards likely. But he does have a lot to deal with coming from a long dormant series, and the fact that he may not have quite measured up to other requested newcomers when the space for additions was so small.

Want - 100%

I mean, he's my number two most wanted newcomer. I love the first Golden Sun from what I've played, and I want more magic users in the game. I've seen the potential for his move set as well. I'm also a big proponent of as many Nintendo franchises in Smash as possible. Simply put, he ticks basically every box for me as a character.

Felix

Chance - 1%

Yeah, no. While Isaac has a chance, I don't see Golden Sun being a big enough series to warrant a proper Echo fighter. Richter comes from a long running series that got extremely good representation as a third party. I don't really see a situation to that degree happening with Golden Sun. I think it's much more likely that we would just get a stage and Isaac. Felix isn't nearly as popular as Isaac in any of the Smash circles.

Want - 35%

Pretty much why not have him if he's not a big deal to develop are my thoughts. He'd represent The Lost Age nicely as well, but I'm less familiar with the sequel (I know, shame on me) and also I don't necessarily see the point of his inclusion. Most of the Echo fighters we've seen so far have been much bigger names and fan requests, he feels more of the Echo fighter just because they could and it makes sense. I don't want Echo fighters to feel like that.

 

[Smasher 101]

As a note there's only three unique characters and three echoes I'm confident in, but I think we'll get a bit more than that so it won't affect my ratings for the rest.

Isaac

Chance: 50%

This is ultimately as high as I'll go for most characters as there are limited spots and not every popular choice is getting in, but Isaac is in the running. Admittedly part of me is still worried about the fact that the series itself hasn't had an entry in a long while, but with the ballot seeming to be a priority and relevancy less of one, Isaac might have the support to overcome that problem and catch Sakurai's eye. He's always been a pretty common and popular choice so I wouldn't doubt he ranked highly.

Want: 100%

I think Golden Sun deserves more than it's gotten and would be a good franchise to add to the roster all around. Isaac's cool and I think he'd bring a lot to the table. I've wanted him for a long while so I'd be pretty happy to finally have him in.

Felix

Chance: 15%

Dependent on whether or not we got Isaac but leaning towards Isaac joining by himself. Felix isn't at all as high of a priority as Isaac and the series is dormant, so I'm doubtful Sakurai would want to go for him even as an echo.

Want: 70%

I only really want Isaac, but I wouldn't turn down a second character. I personally think echoes are a good way to add even more to the roster and Felix certainly makes sense as one so bring him in and I won't complain at all.

Nominations: Gardevoir x5

 

[DogManStar]

K. Rool doesn't help Isaac. iirc, when Sakurai said that irrelevant characters were rarely chosen, he specified ones from dead series. I might just be remembering it incorrectly, but if that's true, the only character helped by K. Rool is Geno.

 

[Organization XIII]

K. Rool doesn't help Isaac. iirc, when Sakurai said that irrelevant characters were rarely chosen, he specified ones from dead series. I might just be remembering it incorrectly, but if that's true, the only character helped by K. Rool is Geno.

He did mention that yes but you're ignoring that he still does add characters from series from dead series and the fact that character choices are much different for Ultimate than in previous Smashes. Dogman K Rool literally does nothing but help Isaac. Also, Super Mario RPG will never get a sequel most likely so technically Geno's series is just as dead and would also be harmed by that logic.

 

[ThoughtfulWanderer]

K. Rool doesn't help Isaac. iirc, when Sakurai said that irrelevant characters were rarely chosen, he specified ones from dead series. I might just be remembering it incorrectly, but if that's true, the only character helped by K. Rool is Geno.

That was during the Smash 4 era when it followed the usual philosophy of "recent and promotional". Ultimate is a different beast entirely that puts the fan requests first. We don't know if Isaac being from a dead series currently even matters at all.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I’m seeing a lot of people still doing 10 nominations (someone actually did 20). For those that can be divided by 2 I will, for those I can’t I will not count them.