Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[GoodGrief741]

Ya, 100% is pretty extreme for someone not confirmed, from a dead series, popularity varies based on the polls, and the "all stages revealed" outlook.

and have a 100% shot though. ;P

I agree it’s extreme, but I genuinely believe he is in. Dead series didn’t seem to hurt the Belmonts, and all stages revealed is a stupid idea that I don’t even find worth considering.

 

[DogManStar]

I agree it’s extreme, but I genuinely believe he is in. Dead series didn’t seem to hurt the Belmonts, and all stages revealed is a stupid idea that I don’t even find worth considering.

Yeah but Castlevania is a genre-defining, historical series that Sakurai himself has said is a big influence on him. Isaac is only from Golden Sun, which was admittedly pretty big back in the day, but had far less impact than Castlevania. Isaac's series being dead hurts him more than Castlevania being dead. (also from what I can tell Castlevania seems to be less dead than Golden Sun? I don't know too much about it, but it looks like it's had more games recently than GS has ever had.)

I agree on the stages though. Sakurai wouldn't flat out admit that no character from a new franchise, first or third party, has any chance anymore.

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Isaac:
Chances: 65%
If you asked this question before the August Direct, this score would be significantly lower, but so many factors have seemed to have changed Isaac's chances for the better. If he were to return as an Assist Trophy, he would have been shown off alongside other characters like Grey Fox, Ashley or Shovel Knight, but that's not the case. Secondly, we've already heard from Sakurai himself that 's appearance is indeed a result of the Ballot votes, so he's definitely looking into them when it comes to newcomers this time around. Isaac was always at least a few steps behind K. Rool and/Geno in a number of fan-polls, but he definitely scored high enough that might mean he could be considered to be playable. The only question is whether or not he actually did well enough in the Ballot that he'd warrant inclusion, or if we see any new stages past the 103 mark, which some see as an indication we might not get any more stages for new IPs not already represented. But as a counterargument, if we were to see any newcomers from new IPs, I'd say they have to come with a stage of their own. This isn't Melee where we had Marth showing up on Fountain of Dreams when you unlocked him.

But yeah, several signs are positive for Isaac, so it's all just a matter of time before our hopes are realised with his confirmation as a playable character, or if he's thrown into Assist Trophy hell for the next decade or so.

Want: 100%
I got introduced to his games thanks to Brawl including him as an Assist, and I think he's one of the last characters I need to fully satisfy me with Smash Ultimate. He's got plenty of untapped potential for a unique newcomer, be it manipulating the earth itself by summoning rock spires, earthquakes, summoning giant hands to push opponents away, etc... Not your ordinary swordsman, and I'd say he's the perfect inclusion that'd set me for life. ...outside of some slightly less believable choices like Joker, Doomguy or Phoenix Wright

Felix:
Chance: 30%
Felix's inclusion probably depends on whether they're gonna do the same thing they did with and, where they both draw the Smash Bros moveset from each other that they wanted to include both. It's more likely that Felix would be a hypothetical Echo for Isaac than his own character, so his own chances probably depend on Isaac's inclusion.

Want:70%
Not as much as Isaac since I've yet to play The Lost Age, but I love the idea of him turning into sand to dodge attacks. Just that alone would sell me on him if he were an Echo.

 

[Tikivoy]

Isaac: chance: 35%. I feel it mostly depends if his support was there for the ballot, which it might have been since it was a popular game. I also still question if the MH screen was a coincidence or hint, and don't believe in the "all stages revealed" theory at all.
Want: 70% Really wanted him in 4, and used to be really hopeful the lack of his AT was because he'd be dlc. Now i'm not as interested, but I would definitely enjoy seeing him.

Abstain on Felix.

Nomination: Big Boss (Metal Gear) X5

 

[Artix]

Isaac

Chance: 80%
Now, I'm not gonna go out of the way and say that Isaac might get in Smash. I still have some doubts about his inclusion, his series is pretty much dead at this point and it really depends on Sakurai whether he should add Isaac or not. But, who knows, if his Ballot support is good enough, then that might make Isaac join Smash Ultimate and I believe he has a ton of support in the Ballot due to how popular the game was and the fact that Sakurai uses the ballot to get newcomers.

Want: 90%
Isaac is one of my most wanted characters in Smash and it will make me happy if they include him. He'll definitely be unique among sword fighters, that's for sure since he doesn't mainly uses his sword in combat. In Brawl, you can see him summon a giant hand to push opponents away, that should be his Neutral B. Anyway, if he does not make it in the base roster, then I'll wait for DLC to come.

Abstain on Felix. I really don't know much about the guy nor did I play The Lost Age.

Nominations:
Jin Kazama x5

 

[B00M]

Isaac
Chance: 90%
Want: 100%
Isaac has the best chance of any unrevealed newcomer at this point IMO. I gave him a 65% in the post-E3 rerate, and everything that has happened since then has only made him seem more likely:
-Still hasn't been shown as an assist
-Other popular choices (Ashley, Shovel Knight, probably Captain Toad, etc.) that could have made it instead have been disconfirmed
-Based on available polling info Isaac is right at the top of the ballot, which Sakurai has now outright stated is being referenced
-A lot of the newcomers, K. Rool in particular, destroy the relevancy argument which was the primary knock against him
-The Rathalos tweet (even if this was just a coincidence and not intended as a hint, the reaction can only bolster his DLC chances if he is absent from the base game)

Besides Sonic, Isaac has been my most wanted character since Brawl was announced. Ridiculous potential for a unique, fun and flashy moveset, so I really hope this is finally his time to shine. As a bonus he would bring some much-deserved attention to the Golden Sun franchise, and hopefully convince others with no previous knowledge of the series to give it a shot!



Felix
Chance: 20%
Want: 90%
The more Golden Sun representation the better in my book. Though I would love to see a second unique newcomer from the series since there is so much cool stuff they could do, even I'll admit an echo fighter is likely the best we could hope for at this point. Felix (or possibly Matthew) seems like a perfect candidate for the echo role so I could definitely see it happening, though I'm not super confident.

 

[ThoughtfulWanderer]

Isaac:

CHANCE: 50%

I'll briefly cover all the big points, but if you want to read my more in-depth take on why the Rathalos tweet could be a hint, please read this as I do not want to turn this post into a text wall. We now know that Sakurai is heavily referring to the ballot for newcomers, and that is a huge boon to Isaac's chances. While fan polls are not definitive reflections of the true results, the biggest have looked on him favorably. This consolidation doc of 40k votes (our largest sample size from the ballot era) places him as #1 in America/Europe and #9 in Japan among unconfirmed characters. Since we know K. Rool's turnout is what got him in Smash (consolidation shows him as receiving 7% of votes while Isaac received 4.6%), it's not unreasonable to believe that other characters would live up to these expectations. However, with 1.8 million votes cast, Isaac isn't guaranteed to still be so high up.

Everybody already knows about the Rathalos tweet, and I'm not kidding when I say every single detail in that picture can point to Golden Sun. As Sakurai has mentioned he does not post tweets lightly in fear of being taken out of context by fans, and it's believed that the barrels and ladders at E3 pointed to K. Rool, an Isaac hint wouldn't be beyond him.

The absence of a Mii costume overall could mean bad things for Isaac's results, but it's doubtful Sakurai would want to throw all future newcomers in as costumes since it would make the mystery of who's in far more predictable when the first few newcomers became known. He's already talked about how much he wants to stamp out leaks and maintain the surprise this time, so this would be counter-productive. Bandana Dee and Shadow didn't get costumes, but they're commonly speculated. Skull Kid only had the mask as a costume over Link's clothes rather than his own, and he's commonly speculated. Ashley, Knuckles, Zero, and Toad all have costumes but are not playable. It's not so clear-cut.

As for 103 being the final stage total, Sakurai used present tense in the direct to indicate that it's probably not final. In truth, Isaac's biggest hurdle is simple competition. People speculate on Geno, Bandana Dee, Skull Kid, and a Pokemon all being likely to make it, and when we do not know how many newcomers are left nor if they all refer to the ballot, it's hard to see where Isaac stands on priority and if his popularity was enough to get him in the base game.

I could also talk about Loz18 believing that he may have found evidence to Isaac being playable. I could theorycraft about how Camelot suddenly referenced Golden Sun in Mario Tennis Aces (which was developed between 2016-2017 when they would know if Isaac is playable or not) after years of radio silence on the series, but neither are really solid evidence right now. Either way, there are many bits and pieces that could favor Isaac being playable but they're not definitive enough to where they could all be misleading coincidences. That's why I'm giving him a 50% chance of making it into the base roster. It truly could go either way at this point, but he's got more momentum than ever, so I could be underselling him.

WANT: 100%

By far my most wanted newcomer. His moveset potential is insane, I love his character and his design, and he's been snubbed from both Brawl and 4 due to circumstances (too much competition in the former, Dark Dawn being a bit too irrelevant in the latter). Golden Sun could otherwise be a series on the level of Fire Emblem and Xenoblade, but instead, faces a likely demise if Isaac cannot join the roster this time and promote the series back to life.

Felix:

CHANCE: 25%

Very plausible echo for Isaac... who still has to make it in first. It also could be Matthew instead to echo Isaac or we don't get an Isaac echo at all, so I don't count on Felix. But it's easy to see him filling that role.

WANT: 85%

Not as big on his character as much as Isaac's, so I won't be too sad if he misses out. I'll still gladly have him since it's more Golden Sun representation. The possibility of the series jumping from 0 characters and hiatus to 2 characters and thriving is an amazing thought.

 

[Cetus]

Chance-80%

I'd say he's pretty likely given how big his fan support is. The chance of an echo for him though, I'd say around 50%. I think the main reveal would be just enough.

Want-60%

Eh.... I have no real connection to Isaac or Golden Sun, but if it makes people happy, I'm on board.

Nominating: New Xenoblade Rep 10X

 

[candyissweet]

ISAAC
Chance: 50%
Want: 100%
Technically I'm only one year younger than Golden Sun, but I'm glad I got the chance to play it, as it's one of my favorite games I've ever played to this day, so naturally I would want Isaac in as playable. Besides that fact he also has some crazy moveset potential that would be extremely innovative to the Smash roster. The fact that he was so popular during the time of the Smash ballot and the rise of the Rathalos tweet (I actually really believe it, I've tried myself to see it as a MH reference but everything matches up too perfectly), but at the same time I feel a little doubtful because unlike Geno, Sakurai hasn't directly addressed Isaac or even the Golden Sun franchise ever since Brawl. So while you could definitely make conjectures about his inclusion, there's not really anything Golden Sun-related that you could pull from (Mii costumes, etc.). At this point, I doubt we're going to get any hints from Sakurai, he's either just gonna give us everything at once or show nothing.

FELIX
Chance: 12%
Want: 100%
If Isaac gets in, I would give Felix a 25% chance of showing up (Felix will not appear if Isaac doesn't). Even though we haven't seen much of GS since Dark Dawn, you can't exactly call the franchise "irrelevant" in terms of the big picture of Nintendo history, since it was a pretty monumental GBA game. And if Richter got in, why not Felix, but I wouldn't be mad if Felix didn't make the jump. If he gets in somehow the whole reveal would probably be too overwhelming for me.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Missed the previous day, whoops!

Isaac

Chance: 85%
Pretty much convinced the newcomers for the base game will be based on fanservice, making him likelier than ever before. This guy was the porbably the highest ranking first party on the ballot from a series not yet represented. Having nothing GS related in Sm4sh could hinder his chances somewhat but the fan outcry likely makes up for that.

Felix

Chance: 35%
Don't know if the fan demand was there but bringing him in alongside Isaac would be the Sakurai thing to do.

Abstaining on want for both. Never played Golden Sun.

Punch Out newcomer x5

 

[zeonie888]

Isaac:
Chance: 75%
With what's going on and some clues hinting on this lad's inclusion might mean there is a chance for him. I feel he has a chance with his popularity and his assist trophy is still missing ever since brawl.

Want: 95%
I have played both GBA Golden Sun games and liked them a lot. He has a lot of potential moves to make him stand out more than any sword wielder. He doesn't even have to have a sword since he can equip other weapons in those games.

Felix:
Chance: 45%
Echo fighters is a neat idea and I can't think of anyone better for Isaac's echo than him. But I think that's the only he's getting in.

Want: 75%
I honestly have a stronger feeling for Isaac but if Felix got in as well I wouldn't mind it. I would be interested to see how Felix would play like as Isaac's echo.

 

[warelander]

Isaac
Chances: 75%

With the Ballot being a factor here I honest to god see Isaac having a chance this time around and I'm about as optimistic about his inclusion as one can reasonably be, when it comes to any Smash newcomer inclusion.

Want: 100%

Why wouldn't I want him? After all I grew up on the GBA Golden Sun games and seeing the series get some love again would be sincerely amazing and he would be a really fun and unique fighter to boot.

Felix
Chances: 40%

Felix has to bank on Isaac getting in first and even then two GS reps at once feels almost like too big of a step. At the same time he is an extremely natural Echo choice, so I can see his inclusion be at the very least entertained.

Want: 100%

The more Golden Sun love the better! Plus, having the protagonists of both GBA GS titles show up together would hype me every bit as much as the surprise inclusion of Richter, my favorite Belmont ever, as Simon's Echo.

 

[BlueMagician]

Isaac

Chance: 39%
It's hard to judge these two. Smash Ultimate seems to be catering to fan requests, and on one hand Issac may have received enough support during the Ballot ironically due to not being an Assist Trophy. On the other hand, there is a problem of timing, and I still feel he missed his best oppurtunity during Brawl. I'll give him a bonus because he has enough distinct moves and it might catch Sakurai's attention.

Want: 50%
It's been so long and I played the games when I was moving, so I have fuzzy memories of it. I know I liked the gameplay (especially the field stuff) so I guess I would like Isaac in Smash.

Felix

Chance: 20.5%
Since the requests seem to center around Isaac, Felix seems to be second in line. Does he have enough to differentiate himself as an echo? That'd be up to how Isaac would be as a fighter.

Want: 50%
Same as Isaac, though I think I remember Lost Age a bit more. I know I like his party members more than Felix, but I like Felix, too.

Nominations
Terry Bogard x 5

 

[KirbyMonadoBoy]

Isaac

Chance: 15% - Sakurai said there will be a total of 103 stages, therefore (if this really is the total number) I don't think we will see any newcomers from new franchises, sadly.

Want: 70% - He deserves to be in Smash. Maybe as a DLC-fighter.


Felix

Chance: 12% - If Isaac somehow makes it into Smash, the possibilty is extremely high that Felix will be included as well. He would be the perfect Echo fighter and is a popular Golden Sun character as well.

Want: 85% - I do really want him in Smash Bros, even more than Isaac.

 

[NintenRob]

Holy sheet, people are really overshooting his score. I don't think I'd give anyone a score higher than I'd say 75%, especially someone who hasn't been in a game for a while.

Revealing K Rool and Ridley has given people really high expectations. It's fine to have high hopes but be reasonable.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Holy sheet, people are really overshooting his score. I don't think I'd give anyone a score higher than I'd say 75%, especially someone who hasn't been in a game for a while.

Revealing K Rool and Ridley has given people really high expectations. It's fine to have high hopes but be reasonable.

I don't see the issue. Relevancy just doesn't matter as much here as back in the Sm4sh days. I thought K.Rool's inclusion established that. (Sakurai said he'd look at the ballot for the newcomers so it aint a one time thing with K.Rool) What the fans want will take priority this time around.

Also thinking we won't get Isaac or any newcomers from unrepresented series trough assumpsions we won't get anymore stages is some bad reasoning IMO.

 

[ferioku]

Isaac

Chance: 50%

A lot of things have been rolling for Isaac, and regardless of what people say (with Isaac AT being missing in smash 4 means he wont be included) is completely FALSE! His trophy may have been missing but Sakurai has not forgotten the franchise as there are not one but TWO themes in Smash 4 and we all know Sakurai loves his JRPG!

However I do have my doubts even though I know Sakurai is aware of his existence and I am extremely confident he did well in the ballot! Moreso even better than Simon, Cloud and Bayo!

Want 100%

There is absolutely no reason to not want him for Smash! Literally the most diverse and creative move set out of any Nintendo character! Anyone who believes he's just another sword fighter don't want him due to the fact that they only want their character in the game. Heck his move set doesn't even need to revolve around a sword, he can literally fight with just Psynergy: this includes his vines, earth magic, and magic hands - djins: can either be items or incorporated into his move set, can summon through these little creatures and even attack using them. Heck he isn't even restricted to his earth element, he can dabble a little into water, fire and wind/lightning! So many things I can mention but I will just end up writing up an essay lmao!

Felix

Chance 5%

If we really wanted Felix, we gotta get Isaac in, i mean let's be real, Isaac is the true face of Golden Sun.

Want 90%

Well of course I would be bias(massive GS fan here) he can literally do everything that Isaac can do with minor differences.

 

[Diddy Kong]

Isaac

Chance: 70%

The thought alone that we might finally see him is exciting! That Rathalos tweet really seems to hold water and I put 1.000.000 times more value to Sakurai’s words than some unknown, unproven “leaker”. That, and King K.Rool is finally in, who also hasn’t appeared in 77 years or so. All factors are good for him right now.

Want: 100%

Been supporting since before Brawl. Awesome franchise and awesome move set potential.

Felix:

Chance: 50%

Richter really helps here. It’s almost the same kind of deal. Shamefully Felix wasn’t seen as a major character after The Lost Age because Dark Dawn referenced Isaac as the main hero always, but he’s still very important.

Want: 100%

Felix had the better story honestly. More character development, and he looks a lot like my younger self. Would love to have him in. And am also slightly more nostalgic towards TLA than the first Golden Sun.

Know what...? I REALLY should start another Golden Sun play though!

 

[Jupiter Ivan]

Alright, here we go.

Given everything we know so far...

Isaac: 99.9% might seem a bit ridiculous but I’m very optimistic about him being playable so far. I would say 100% but there always a chance it couldn’t happen. The Rahalos Picture was the thing that did it though. Everything about that picture personified Golden Sun, right down to the characters that were chosen. Link being the Silent Protagonist, just like Isaac. Marth’s Name in Japanese is Marusu, which translates to Mars, Garet is a Mars Adept. Shulk uses the Monado which can give the wielded the power to see the future, a power commonly found amongst Jupiter Adepts, which Ivan is. They’re even lined up in order of joining the party, just like the games. From left to right: Link/Isaac = Marth/Garet = Shulk/Ivan. The only downside to this is that Mia isn’t represented. That’s the only knock against this reference.

Want: 100% obviously.

Felix: 25% much less likely, TBH. There’s nothing that points to him being included, and he’s much less recognizable outside of the fan base. We’re already having to jump through hoops in the hopes of having Isaac. I don’t actually see Felix happening.

Want: 95% but that doesn’t mean I don’t want him. They both come my favorite game of all time. While I don’t want him as much as Isaac, he’s still right there behind him.

 

[Kotor]

Isaac
Chance: Abstain
Want: 0%

Yeah I never touched Golden Sun. I have no history with Isaac. He was just there for me when he was added in Brawl as an Assist Trophy. And Golden Sun's nonexistent content in Smash 4 never bothered me because there was no bond between Golden Sun and myself. What's Isaac's popularity more comparable too? One region pushing hard like with Ridley, or universal demand like with King K. Rool? If he does get in, yay for his fans. Isaac would just be another character that I have to unlock.

Felix
Chance: Abstain
Want: 0%

The same predicament as Isaac for me. I had mistaken him for Matthew but to my surprise, Golden Sun has three games to its name. It wasn't just Golden Sun, and Dark Dawn as I had assumed for a long time. Felix overall chances of getting in involve whether Isaac gets in first. And since I brought up Matthew, that (I hope because I know nothing about Golden Sun) he's probably one of two hurdles Felix has to go through. The other hurdle is Isaac doesn't get an Echo Fighter. I do appreciate Felix looking completely different. Matthew is more "Isaac but in a different outfit." He's Isaac's son so of course there has to be a resemblance.

Nominations
Rowlet x5

 

[skylanders fan]

Issac
chance
he is gonna get a big jump since the reveal of King K Rool. UItimate is using the ballot and Issac was popular at the time and still is. Now I think others like Geno and Skull Kid are more likely but I feel like the tweet Sakurai did also increased his chances.
60%

Want
I personally have no attacment to Issac all I know is he is the guy from brawl with the hand attack to be honest. BUt I knwo he has his fans and I am all for bring old Nintendo series back to the main stream.
80%

Felix
Chance 30%
want 40%
I am gonna give him half of both Issac scroes becuase of the fact he would be a echo for him. I think that he has his chance but but we still don't know how many charcters with obvious echo's (like Isabell for Villager,Shadow for sonice,and ken for ryu) will make it so I can't rate him as high as I will for Issac.

nominating
rick,coo and kine x5

 

[BlueMagician]

What's Isaac's popularity more comparable too? One region pushing hard like with Ridley, or universal demand like with King K. Rool?

Golden Sun has a decent amount of popularity all over the globe, I'd say a bit weighted towards English-speaking regions and Europe in terms of Smash push.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Forgotten Assist Promotion

Chance: 50%
Want: 35%

Isaac's definitely up there in terms of fan pull.

Still, we don't know how all of this is going to work. Isaac had the assist in Brawl, but despite getting a new game between Brawl and Sm4sh, he lost the assist. The game does seem to be more popular in the West than it does in Japan - if does have fair popularity over there, but not to the extent as here or especially in Europe.

On the other hand, the series seems to be dead now. Dark dawn didn't do amazingly, and there's been really no noise on the Golden Sun front since 2010. Not to mention that Isaac wasn't even playable there, it was his exact clone of a son.

I can see it happening thanks to fan demand, but we don't know exactly how much demand there is, so I'll put it a coin flip. In terms of want, he's another character from a game I haven't played before so there are several characters I want more. I wouldn't be opposed, but I wouldn't be celebrating in the aisles either.

Isaac's Potential Echo

Chance: 5%
Want: 0%

Wait, he's not even in, and now we're hoping that all new series are getting a newcomer and an echo?

I think Richter is the exception, not the rule, and it was expressly stated that he's an echo since Simon is borrowing a lot from Richter moveset-wise. If Isaac doesn't need to dip into Felix's moveset (which anyone on the Isaac thread will tell you is possible since they have all developed movesets), then there's really no point for another side echo to get in.

Nor is it really necessary, to be honest.

Nom: Unpopular character x5

 

[CodakTheWarrior]

Holy sheet, people are really overshooting his score. I don't think I'd give anyone a score higher than I'd say 75%, especially someone who hasn't been in a game for a while.

Revealing K Rool and Ridley has given people really high expectations. It's fine to have high hopes but be reasonable.

I overall agree, I think it is definitely more reasonable and a better idea to temper expectations as to avoid disappointment.

The only character I personally would definitely rate higher than 75% is Shadow as an echo. There is just such an abundance of evidence pointing in his direction that he's the only character I would safely call a hard lock

 

[Pwnapplez]

Isaac
Chances 50%
Isaac already has a history with Smash. Being an AT in Brawl means that he already is a possibility to come back whenever it's just the question of when? The AT photo is a stretch imo, however, the Smash Ballot is not. I am surprised to see Isaac do so well back then and now. I feel like he is in the top 3 most wanted from here all the way to GameFAQs. Even if he is not an AT and not in base he could work as DLC.
Do I want to give Isaac 100% chance? Of course, but I have terrible luck and I am not a betting man.

Want 100%
Isaac is one of my favorite video game characters. Golden Sun is an RPG that many kids who grew up with GBA era of handheld games. People brush off Isaac for a few reasons:
A) No connection to the character
B) "ANIME SWORDMAN"
C) Just only want their character in and if it's NOT WE WILL YELL AND SCREAM LIKE A CHILD WAHHHHH!
etc etc

Isaac could be one of the most unique fighters in Smash, we got a taste of it with Robin now give us the full mage. His extremely large pool of moves would be a great and flashy time in smash.

Felix
Chances 25%
I don't think Isaac would get an Echo. If he did it would be Felix. It's not going to be the same as Simon/Richter since Richter is more famous in Japan and Simon is the face.

Want 85%
Would love to see this echo combo. Felix could move slower and hit harder etc etc. Would be interesting. I find the echo/clone thing interesting. I like seeing all of Nintendo in Smash. This is the Ultimate Smash Bros after all

Isaac would just be another character that I have to unlock.

Oh NO! Unlocking things in a game all about UNLOCKING! What to do!!
It's fine having zero connection to the character, but that is a piss poor argument in a game all about unlocking characters.

In the end do I think Isaac is in? No. He has a good chance, but I don't think he is in. However,

Golden Sun has a decent amount of popularity all over the globe, I'd say a bit weighted towards English-speaking regions and Europe in terms of Smash push.

Isaac is really popular in Europe
He also has an extream popularity in Spanish speaking areas. South America, the Carribean, etc etc. When I lived in Spain to teach English to the kids who would play with their GBAs all had a copy of Golden Sun with em


Do I want Isaac? Yes. Do I honestly think he is in? No. However, anything is possible

 

[Tew]

Isaac:

Chance:
30%
30% may seem Pretty low, but considering how unpredictable Sakurai is and that we likely won´t see that many more unique Newcomers, it´s actually quite high in my opinion.
Pros: He probably did well in the Ballot, I don´t think he is one of the top 5 as some seem to think, but still Pretty high up there. Though many others like Waluigi, Lyn, Bomberman also likely were at a similar place as Isaac and din´t make it in.
Though, besides Geno he is imo the most likely Retro character.
He could be very unique, even though he has a Sword.
He was an AT in Brawl, Maybe Sakurai planned at some Point Isaac as a playable character for Smash 4 and that´s why he removed the Trophy.
Cons: Though we usually get to know which characters were planned but scrapped from either Sakurai, datamining or something else and there was no clue to Isaac.
Furthermore Isaac is way more popular in the west than in Japan. So far most of Smash Bros roster is more japanese centric, but this time we already got Ridley. Apparently they even nicknamed him Captain America in Japan. This could either mean we might see more west characters this time (Even got Shovel Knight, a rather new Kickstarter indie game from the west, as an AT) or that that´s already it.
While the series is dead at this Point, I don´t think that matters too much, we also won´t see another Ice Climbers, Wii Fit or Duck Hunt game anytime soon, furthermore K. Rool didn´t appear in quite a while and many other fan favourites and likely candidates probably won´t appear in many more games either, like Geno and Skull Kid.
I feel like there are too many other characters, that have more clues for their inclusion and also seem more popular to me.

Want:
70%
I liked the game, but it´s definitely not one of my favourites and his design is rather boring. I mostly want him in Smash because of the big Moveset potential. It´s only 70% because, even though he could have a moveset that barely uses the Sword, I´d really prefer more characters without swords and finally more with completely different weapons. There are so many other Options, like Spears (Bandana Dee), Lances (Fjorm, Azura, Ephraim), axes (Hector, Edelgard), bows (Decidueye, I know the Pits and Links have a bow, but they only use it for one move and that´s nearly the same for all of them. Would be nice to have amoveset centered around the bow, like in Brawlhalla for example), Dual Blades (yes, kinda swords… Elma, Weavile, Monster Hunter), Crossbows (Linkle), Guns (Elma) etc.


Felix:

Chance:
12%
Just because Simon was introduced with an Echo, doesn´t mean we will now get Newcomers Always paired with a Fitting Echo. I do think that we will get a more Echos, than most, me included, expected after their first introduction, but an Echo for an already dead Franchise. Castlevania is by far more important and bigger and also works, because their moveset is a mix of both. Also let´s not Forget the possibility of Matthew as an Echo, he is basicly a Carbon copy already, just throwing that out here.

Want:
25%
Eh, I don´t really care. I don´t mind any Echos, but I also don´t really hope for many. If he Plays different enough, sure, that would be could, but otherwise I don´t like his design nor care About him as a character.


Nominations:
5x Fjorm

 

[Jomosensual]

Issac

Chance: 90
I think I'll even go a step further and say he'll be the first reveal on the next direct. The demand is there, which is the biggest thing when adding characters this time around.

Want: 20
I don't really care I guess? I don't know much about him or his games so I don't have much investment in if he gets in or not. Would be cool for fans of Golden sun to get him in though.


Felix:
Chance: 40
2 Golden sun characters probably isn't going to happen. That being said, I didn't think we'd get 2 Castlevania characters in either, but I still don't expect it. I think the only new fighter plus an echo isn't going to happen again and it was just a special thing they were doing with Castlevania.

Want: 20
same reasoning as Issac. Don't really know a lot about him or his games so either way it doesn't matter much to me. staying above a 0 because it would be cool for fans of him and Golden sun to get him and Issac in together.


Nomination:
Nathan Drake x5

 

[Klimax]

Chance: 90%
Isaac is a legend among the Smash Community, just like Geno, K Rool and Ridley. He's just too popular and he's iconic. He will be in the game. Smash Ultimate is about including the lengendary characters remaining and it's time to include the legends of Smash Speculations.

Want: 100%
At first, I didn't care at all about Isaac and in fact, i didn't even play any Golden Sun game. BUT, his fanbase is so dedicated and proved so many times how much this character could be unique that he became a guy that I really want. I also want to see all of Smash speculations' legends in the game, half of them are in (K Rool and Ridley) it's time to get the other half (Isaac and Geno).

 

[Opossum]

Isaac

Chance: 10%
Want: 50%

I don't think there will be too many more newcomers. I'm only expecting Isabelle, Ken, Incineroar, a new SE character, and MAYBE one other newcomer. Isaac just seems lower on the totem pole.

Felix

Chance: 5%
Want: 50%

His chances are dependent on Isaac getting in, to put it briefly. I wouldn't mind him. Echoes are neat.



Reinhardt trophy x5

 

[cybersai]

If there are 8 newcomers I think Isaac has a 60% chance.

If there are only 2-3 newcomers left, he's probably down to 40%.

We're getting a new Pokemon, I'm convinced Skull is happening, so there would be only one left. If Square is getting a new rep it's either Geno or one of their franchsies, which means Isaac got the short end of the stick. If there are 8 newcomers, he has a chance.

Really depends how many newcomers are left.

 

[StormC]

Man, and I thought putting Isaac at 55% chance was optimistic...

Like others, I wouldn't go over 70% on any remaining character, except Isabelle, who I think is like 90% in - the question is unique or echo fighter.

 

[smileMasky]

the binding of Isaac (it's a joke chill)

Chance: 75%
he's either a AT or a Fighter. more on the latter he should have been really popular in Europe and the west than Japan. there is a chance that he may not appear for what ever reason. but honestly with the not too many new fighters Mr. sakurai said you can NOT trust him he is known to be a king of trolling. then again we dont know his full intentions.

Want: 70%
So as of recent I have gotten a GBA version of golden sun. and had some fun using the move mechanic for puzzles and "set>cast>summon" style of strategy.

Felx: abstained
only know of golden sun 1 never played the sequels

Nomination: Django x5

 

[False Sense]

Isaac:
Chance: 20%
Want: 50%

My thoughts more or less echo Opossum's above. I'm only really expecting about three additional newcomers total (not counting echoes), and with such little roster space left and our limited understanding of Sakurai's thought process for selecting newcomers this time around, it's hard for me to have a high degree of confidence in any one newcomer.

That said, Isaac has a decent chance, I imagine. As a character, he'd be a natural fit for Smash, and it appears he did fairly well on the Ballot, so there's a good chance Sakurai will have noticed him. Beyond that, I can't say.

As for want, Isaac looks like he'd be a really fun addition to the Smash roster, and even seems like a character I'd be interested in playing as, personally. But I didn't really care much for Golden Sun and for various reasons the character's left a bitter taste in my mouth. So I'm kinda ambivalent.

Felix:
Chance: 15%
Want: 50%

I actually think Felix is pretty likely if Isaac gets in. I could see Sakurai being the type of person to go the extra mile with the Golden Sun fanservice.

 

[CrusherMania1592]

Isaac

Chances: 75%
Want: 100%


Felix

Chances: 50%
Want: 50%



For Isaac, I think it's long overdue. As someone mentioned earlier, Isaac represents a rare generation of video games: The GBA era as we only got very few characters who came from that timeline. If one were to add Isaac, Felix could have a good chance thanks to the Echo characters. Isaac's chances helps thanks to the ballot and we've yet to have a true Earthbender type of character



Nominations: Garvedoir x5

 

[VexTheHex]

I don't see the issue. Relevancy just doesn't matter as much here as back in the Sm4sh days. I thought K.Rool's inclusion established that. (Sakurai said he'd look at the ballot for the newcomers so it aint a one time thing with K.Rool) What the fans want will take priority this time around.

Also thinking we won't get Isaac or any newcomers from unrepresented series trough assumpsions we won't get anymore stages is some bad reasoning IMO.

Going Isaac has a shot to Isaac is pretty much confirmed cause King K Rool got in is also some pretty bad reasoning. Donkey Kong is bigger and still going while Golden Sun has been buried for now as a 3 installment series. They aren't exactly 1 for 1.

I think you're forgetting that many "results" also indicated Toad, Waluigi, Takamaru, Lip, Lyn, and Krystal as top dogs. None of them made it in. Isaac can still fall short. He is more likely than expected before Ultimate was revealed to be more about crowd pleasing, but he still isn't 100% till he is confirmed.

 

[ShinyRegice]

Isaac chances: 12.5%
I'm taking Sakurai's words quite literally in the August 8 Direct and don't expect more stages, and Isaac is the kind of character from currently unrepresented series I'd expect to get a stage if he gets in. But I'll keep an open mind and accept the possibility of hidden currently unrevealed stages and series (which would make me surprised by the choice of words in hindsight - and would force me to change my avatar to a bunch of a RTC joke characters because of a stupid bet I did on my profile page). Basically he has a chance because the current track record for Ultimate newcomers suggests that timeless popularity can trump "relevance" as it was defined by fans in Smash 4 speculation days, and as far as candidates from currently unrepresented series he seems to be a league on his own. His Assist Trophy was removed in Smash 4... It can be concerning if that means Golden Sun got a significant loss of priority back then, but hopefully for him said Sakurai is aware of the demand now.

Also I'm not really convinced by the Rathalos picture hint, since Golden Sun is not the only game with this kind of presentation, other Camelot RPGs did it prior, so it's completely possible Sakurai just found it nice without hinting at anything. I can see how Sakurai could have commented this picture as a direct Isaac reference, but it's as far as I'm concerned it's only weak evidence at best.

If he misses the base game I think he has a good shot as DLC, as long as at least part of the DLC newcomers are chosen with the same philosophy as Ultimate's base roster newcomer pool. After all we should keep in mind that nobody could have predicted Smash 4's DLC newcomer pool, and I'm expecting this game's DLC newcomers to have more focus on what we familiarly name as "relevance" for the sake of giving more representation to the Switch era (and also because of Corrin precedent).

Isaac want: 67.5%
I remember when I joined Smashboards I got interested in the character and actually got his game later as part as very late Smash 4 speculation. The game itself was fun with a good combat system and the promise of great potential for a Smash character. Ever since I'm not as implied in Isaac support as before as I feel like I was bandwagonning for the sake of it, but that doesn't mean he wouldn't be a nice addition. I imagine him having one djinn for each element and special move: each of these releases a djinn for a powerful effect, and until the djinn recharges, the move becomes less powerful and Isaac loses some of his stats (like being lighter as long as the Earth djinn recharges). I could even see his Smash attacks being summons if he can unleash the corresponding djinns, and using a less powerful attack instead if not able to do it. And his moveset could include a mix of sword attacks and earth magic which could look interesting.

Also he would come with a Venus Lighthouse stage which seems like an awesome idea where Earth power comes to change gravity. That would also mean I'd have lost my bet and you'd all enjoy me wearing an avatar of Bubsy alongside other infamous RTC joke characters.

Now that King K. Rool has been revealed I notice I now imagine myself giving higher want scored to many characters. Probably because he was my highest priority character and he now leaves room for more characters for me to want. For Isaac I just gave him a want score a bit higher than before in this game but for me to go higher and make that he becomes one of my most wanted again I think I just need Dixie Kong and a gen VII Pokémon.

Felix chances: 2.5%
Another Echo candidate of a potential newcomer. It's not sure If Golden Sun could have the luxury of carrying an Echo as well and given my Isaac score wasn't super high in the first place, Felix's chances aren't high at all. Abstaining for rating him in want.

Nominating:
New item: Beast Ball x3
Concept: new Metroidvania-like adventure mode x1
Concept: no more stages x1

Also I think my computer has a chance of being repaired this week. If not, then it's actually probable I'm not going to participate next weekend, so let's hope it all goes alright.

 

[a smart guy]

Isaac:
Chance: 20% Why so low? Because I don't think a new series gets in without a stage and I'm unfortunately one of the believers in the no new stages theory. I put about a 20% chance of us getting another stage. If that happens, I feel like Isaac is a lock, but that's a big if. I do think he's likely for DLC though.
Want: 80% I always considered Ridley, K. Rool, and Isaac to be the Smashboards Big 3. If those 3 got in, speculation would implode, and the game would become an instant fan-favorite. We've got 2 out of the 3, and I really hope we get the last 1. I have no personal attachment to the series, so it's an 80% for me.

Felix:
Chance: 5% Well, If we estimate the odds of Isaac getting in at 1 in 5, I think there's a 1 in 4 chance of getting Felix as an echo. I don't know enough about him to know how different he would be.
Want: 10% Eh... His game is controversial among fans of his series, and I haven't even played the series he comes from. I don't think he qualifies as an all star.

Nominations: No more stages x5

 

[Organization XIII]

Isaac
Chance: 80%
Let's be real Isaac is in this game in some form. Less popular characters like Shovel Knight and Krystal are in as ATs and other super popular characters like the Inklings and K Rool are playable so it's no longer a matter of if he will appear but rather how he will appear. Considering his massive popularity Isaac is most likely going to be playable especially since K Rool shattered Isaac's biggest obstacle. As it stands the 4 most likely newcomers are Isaac > Bandana Dee > Geno > Banjo in that order. Right now Isaac has the highest chance for any unique newcomer sure that doesn't guarantee he's in the game but if you had to bet money on a character appearing Isaac would be your safest bet.
Want: 100%
His games are great, he's great, and Smash Ultimate will be great with his inclusion. Let's go.

Felix
Chance: ???
There's no real way to predict this. We have no idea what Sakurai's criteria for echoes are. The only thing we think matters are they can reuse animations and they fit the skeleton of the base character. In that case, Felix qualifies. He's popular with the GS community but not at large so popularity might go either way for him. I mean there's no good way to predict whether Sakurai makes him an echo.
Want: 100%
More GS is always a good thing.

 

[SupriceSupplies]

Isaac:
Chance: 80%
Want: Abstain

Felix:
Chance: 40%
Want: Abstain

There's no denying that Isaac's popular, if having the greatest amount of supporters on smashboards out of every unconfirmed characters alone is any indication. He's got plenty of moveset potential from what I've heard with stuff like earth based magic, so I can imagine Sakurai being inclined to look in that direction when combined with the fact that the ballot is any indication. Being a first party helps as well, as I believe that there aren't many characters from Nintendo itself that existed around the time of the ballot/early 2016 that have a solid shot of getting in. Luckily for Isaac, however, he's one of the few.
I guess it should be mentioned that certain other popular characters did still get the AT treatment, but it really feels like Isaac's above the deconfirmed characters in popularity. I don't think Waluigi was as popular as he is now back during the days of the ballot, for example. (Might be wrong on that though)

The only thing potentially getting in Isaac's way is the stage count. There's no denying we have a crapton of stages already, almost double the amount of 4U. But I also feel like 4 new stages is... kind of small, even when we're not getting very many. I'm aware of Sakurai's comment, but I'm not taking it as a gospel just yet. Though certain wording in the recent famitsu column has me worried.
HOWEVER, even if we're not getting any more stages before launch, the possibility of a DLC/post-launch-update stage cannot be denied. So I think there's a good chance the potential final count of 103 stages for the base game won't matter in the long run, even if a character does come from a series without a stage, as they might just get a stage a few months after the game's release.

As for Felix as an echo, it's dependent on Isaac's chances and then a coin flip. I can see it happening, I can also see it not happening.

Don't have any experience with the Golden Sun games, though. I'm interested in them, but I never played them. (In hindsight, I think I should've abstained from Saber's want score for the same reason. Ah well.)

 

[Deleted member]

Have to abstain on both today.


Noms:
Metroidvania-like adventure mode x10