- Aug 2, 2019
Not really, several major characters remain completely absent.There aren't a ton of options for a Spirit Board as the base game representation was pretty thorough.
Chance: 60% - Rex could go either way. He still remains a big deal for Nintendo even if he isn't the most recent entry anymore and his game put Xenoblade on the map for a lot of people. Sakurai has expressed disappointment in being unable to add him to the base game and he got a Mii Costume as compensation. However, while I think Rex is by far one of the most likely first parties, my confidence in him goes down as time passes. Xenoblade Definitive Edition is now the series' newest entry so I don't think he'd be a promotional pick. Furthermore, Steve and Sephiroth completely disproved the theory of a first party-oriented pass and took things in a new direction, so that naturally hurts his chances of being possibly anything but the last choice. Furthermore, he partially rides on Min Min's coattails and even she was chosen by Nintendo directly, while Rex at this point would definitely get in as a Sakurai pick. Now, Nintendo could ask for a new Xenoblade rep and Sakurai could push for Rex, but overall, while Rex is still one of the most likely characters, over time my confidence in him slowly wanes.
Want: 40% - Not my first choice, but I do honestly like his personality (even if he's a bit generic) and I do have experience with his game (even if I've only played half of it, put it down a year ago since the gameplay just felt too tedious), so that alone does help his score! Furthermore, there is plenty of content that could come with him. Xenoblade 2 does have a lot of beautiful landscapes that could make for excellent stages (though I really hope they don't choose Gormott, since it'd be too visually similar to Gaur Plains), and there's tons of music to add! Furthermore. several major characters like Dromach, Vandham, Duhgall, Malos, etc. remain missing, so they'd make excellent new spirits to join the existing ones for Rex's spirit board! So while there are a lot of first party reps much I'd rather see (Louie, Waluigi, Dixie, Bandana Dee, etc), I think he'd make for a good challenger pack to round out Xenoblade's representation in Smash.
Gen 8 Pokemon
Chance: 30% - Another one where my confidence wanes as time goes on. While Pokemon is always marketable, the Gen 8 rep's promotional point slowly slips away. It's been 6 months since Isle of Armor and 2 since Crown Tundra, and we've had four characters announced during their promotional timeframe, yet no sign of a Gen 8 rep. While the spirit event doesn't outright kill its' chances, I do think it hurts them to a good degree. Nintendo makes weird, left field decisions but I still think that if we were getting a Gen 8 rep they would've been revealed by now. Plus with Gen 4 remake rumors next year, we could very well get a Gen 4 Pokemon instead.
As for a frontrunner, Cinderace has by far gotten the most attention. Extra animation attention in-game, best hidden ability (similar to fellow marketed starter Greninja's), a major role in the anime, and so much more. Even if it'd be our third fire started, Cinderace seems like the one they're trying to push, and with us being outside of the DLC promotional period, choices like Urshifu feel less and less likely.
Want: 40% - I love Pokemon, and even if Sword and Shield had A LOT of problems (my god am I tired of the self righteous shills on Twitter), I'd be fine with a Gen 8 rep getting in (especially over another Gen 1 rep like Eevee). Though if I were to choose I'd pick a more out there but still popular rep like Toxtricity, especially since it'd be a much more well-recieved choice. Plus Gen 8 DOES have some cool-looking environments. A stage overlooking the WIld Area and Motostoke sounds very pretty! So the Gen 8 rep would come with some good content. Though if I were to choose another Pokemon rep, my first choice would be Drifblim or Gothitelle.
Chance: 0.1% - Clearly a joke choice xD But not one I have any confidence in. Niantic seems to love Wooper but it's such a random choice that I don't see TCPi going for it under any circumstance. Nonetheless you CAN get Wooper in Sword and Shield, so there's a tiny bit of promotional material there. But Wooper just doesn't align with the choices The Pokemon Company typically makes for their Smash reps.
Want: 100% - As funny as Pichu is, Gen 2 deserves a better rep and Wooper would honestly be a hilarious way to do that. It has such a goofy design that Sakurai would surely have a blast designing a moveset for it! Plus Johto needs a stage more representative of it and for sure Wooper would bring that (as TPC and Smash usually just treat Johto as East Kanto). I also loved Wooper as a child and still do, and it was also the first Johto Pokemon I ever encountered, so there's history here!
4x Strategy Rep x10
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's alt/echo x10
[Rerate] Louie x10
Lloyd - 27.83%
Rayman - 13.22%