Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[MintPepsi]

Frisk

Chance: 0%
I love Undertale but there's no way we're getting Frisk or any Undertale character this pass. I can see an Undertale character happening if we get a third pass but even then, I'm very confident that it'd be Sans and not Frisk. Considering the fact that Sans was the Undertale character that Sakurai chose to represent first, it's clear him and Toby prioritize Sans over other Undertale characters when it comes to Smash. In addition, Sakurai noted how Sans was added due to popular request. Nintendo and Sakurai aren't going to see all those requests and then see all the hype around the Sans mii costume and think "hmm let's add an Undertale character who isn't Sans."

Want: 50%
I love Undertale and I'd be hyped as hell to see Frisk get in but I'd prefer Sans. Sans to me would be like a near 100% on the want scale.


I put all my nominations towards Shovel Knight

 

[Ridrool64]

Deet Deet!

Chance: 10%. More or less, it's the same reasoning some have mentioned: there wasn't an Undertale Spirit Event. Post-Cuphead this was actually an interesting note, although I feel that ship is not very good for evidence right now as neither did Fallout (though that was for more obvious reasons) or No More Heroes. I would hesitate to say Frisk is assuredly off of the table. But yeah, the Sans Mii Costume has high odds of being everything Toby Fox brings to Smash. Very high odds. But that Mii Costume was also, most likely, a massive success unprecedented (and I'd wager uncleared) by characters who by all accounts should have beaten it. So I don't think it's impossible that Nintendo and Sakurai would want to revisit Fox for more, especially considering that all we know for sure about the development timeline is that the selections were done by November 2019. Is it possible that they were finished/all chosen sooner? Yes. This provides a very slim opportunity for an Undertale rep to get in, and who else but Frisk if not Sans? (I don't think Papyrus would come without Sans.)

That being said, this is, as slim as it may be, likely the last chance for the character to get in unopposed. Once Sans returns to speculation in the next game, is he going to be considered way more likely by a lot or by even more than that? By that time we might know if Sans is up to something in Deltarune or if he was just a cheeky cameo the whole time. But make no mistake, Sans is not irrelevant competition in the future.

Want: 80%. It might seem bizarrely high since I'm rather low key on Frisk, but I genuinely think that if any modern indie should get in, Undertale is that indie. I really, really, REALLY don't get the hype behind Sans, because Sans can't represent the game as a whole (just a very very specific part of it) and the game, cliche as it sounds, genuinely is more than the sum of its parts. (Besides, the idea that Frisk gets in because Sans decided that the Mii Costume was more than enough is too hilarious to overcome.) I implore you guys to check out the moveset concepts that exist for the character, they really do justice for representing all three pathways. Also the Undertale soundtrack is still GOATED, the stage potential is GOATED, the Spirit potential has goats in it so it's goated by default. I can't see any way Frisk is a bad pick. (Sans though... disappointing, but somebody I'd welcome anyway.)

I mean, who else could bring a morality system to Smash? (Don't you dare say Shadow the Hedgehog, as somebody who enjoys playing that game. Or Cole McGrath, because the last thing we need is two Coles in this game as well.)

Red x 10. Scorpion will probably get 10.60%, just a hunch.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Alex Mason pre-Frisk

Red (Angry Birds) x190
[Rerate] The Knight x180
Miriam x170
[Rerate] Maxwell x155
Cynthia (Pokémon) x150
Hajime Hinata x150
Concept: The remaining SSB4 DLC Mii Costumes return (or get the deluxe treatment) x131

150 - 101

Don-chan x130
T-Rex Runner x130
Mii Costume: Monika x125
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x124
D.Va x115
Vectorman x110

100 - 51

[Rerate] Arle Nadja x100
Boss: Ender Dragon x98
Zero (Mega Man) x95
[Rerate] Monokuma x95
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x95
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x93
Carl Johnson x90
Crazy Dave x90
Riptor x85
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x85
Stage: Bowser's Castle x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Boss: Rayquaza x80
Qbby x80
Fulgore x79
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Giygas x70
Worms x70
Concept: A 4X strategy rep x60
Echo (Olimar) x56
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
John Marston x55
Jin Sakai x55
Ghirahim x55

50 - 25

Cooking Mama x50
Tetra x45
Mii Costume: 2B x40
Echo (Bowser) x35
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x30
Ryza (Atelier) x25
Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x25

Under 25

Velvet Crowe x20
Yarn Yoshi x15
Billy & Jimmy Lee x15
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x15
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Estelle Bright x10
Concept: Characters that don't have games on Nintendo platforms x10
Mii Costume: Zagreus x10
Mii Costume: Madeline x10
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
Stage: Tetris x5
[Rerate] Agumon x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
[Rerate] Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5

Concept: The remaining SSB4 DLC Mii Costumes return takes out both Don-chan and Mii Costume: Monika and ends the day in seventh place.

Vectorman zaps past 100 noms.

Joining the list today are Concept: Characters that don't have games on Nintendo platforms and Mii Costume: Madeline, both with 10 noms.

amageish You gave 5 noms to Monika's costume and 10 to Madeline's, but you don't have extra noms. How do you want to allocate the 10 you had?

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I don't have an opinion on Undertale.

Nominations: [Rerate] Monokuma x5

 

[fogbadge]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Alex Mason pre-Frisk

Red (Angry Birds) x190
[Rerate] The Knight x180
Miriam x170
[Rerate] Maxwell x155
Cynthia (Pokémon) x150
Hajime Hinata x150
Concept: The remaining SSB4 DLC Mii Costumes return (or get the deluxe treatment) x131

150 - 101

Don-chan x130
T-Rex Runner x130
Mii Costume: Monika x125
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x124
D.Va x115
Vectorman x110

100 - 51

[Rerate] Arle Nadja x100
Boss: Ender Dragon x98
Zero (Mega Man) x95
[Rerate] Monokuma x95
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x95
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x93
Carl Johnson x90
Crazy Dave x90
Riptor x85
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x85
Stage: Bowser's Castle x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Boss: Rayquaza x80
Qbby x80
Fulgore x79
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Giygas x70
Worms x70
Concept: A 4X strategy rep x60
Echo (Olimar) x56
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
John Marston x55
Jin Sakai x55
Ghirahim x55

50 - 25

Cooking Mama x50
Tetra x45
Mii Costume: 2B x40
Echo (Bowser) x35
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x30
Ryza (Atelier) x25
Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x25

Under 25

Velvet Crowe x20
Yarn Yoshi x15
Billy & Jimmy Lee x15
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x15
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Estelle Bright x10
Concept: Characters that don't have games on Nintendo platforms x10
Mii Costume: Zagreus x10
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
Stage: Tetris x5
[Rerate] Agumon x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
[Rerate] Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5

Concept: The remaining SSB4 DLC Mii Costumes return takes out both Don-chan and Mii Costume: Monika and ends the day in seventh place.

Vectorman zaps past 100 noms.

Joining the list today is Concept: Characters that don't have games on Nintendo platforms, with 10 noms.

amageish You gave 5 noms to Monika's costume and 10 to Madeline's, but you don't have extra noms. How do you want to allocate the 10 you had?

is that the knight from hollow knight at number 2?

 

[GoodGrief741]

is that the knight from hollow knight at number 2?

Indeed!

 

[amageish]

You gave 5 noms to Monika's costume and 10 to Madeline's, but you don't have extra noms. How do you want to allocate the 10 you had?

Whoops! Shows how much attention I've been paying... I'll go with Madeline then!

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Scorpion from Mortal Kombat.

Tomorrow we will be rating two things, so predict Concept: A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief as well as Chibi-Robo.

Today is also the last day to affect the top 7 so use your noms wisely.

Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the Mortal Kombat mood:

Spoiler: Mortal Kombat Music

 

[Perkilator]

GET OVER HERE!...We're rating a new character

I abstain. I just wanted to make that joke

....I don't know what else to say, so here's a compilation video about a god-awful Mortal Kombat kartoon.

Microsoft character who isn't Steve or Chief: 5%

Noms:
Crazy Dave x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Scorpion

Chance 5 - Feels like probably the character with some of the most highs and lows overall. The highs are that Mortal Kombat is an iconic series with Scorpion being one of the most popular characters in the game. Without a doubt a top 3 fighting game character who isn't in the the game yet and probably 1 and 2 with Chun Li. So now the negatives. First it's that Mortal Kombat isn't as popular in Japan due to how violent it is. I've heard it's banned but apparently it's not like a full on ban, so I don't really know what to call it. Those 2 are massive knocks against it. Overall it's like a Virginia basketball 2012 resume for Scorpion(yes, I know I'm the only one who knows what that means but ****, when else am I going to be able to reference college basketball during RTC?). Overall I feel like the negatives beat the positives by quite a bit at the moment.

Want 100 - I'd love it. Scorpion has been on my most wanted list for quite some time now. Scorpion is extremely iconic and would feel like a massive deal for Smash to get. Being able to play him vs Ryu would be just all kinds of wild

Predictions:
Chibi Robo - 1.31
Non Steve/Chief rep - .98

Noms:
TRex Runner x10

 

[ahemtoday]

Scorpion

Chance: 1%

I don't think Mortal Kombat is very likely at all to receive representation as a fighter. The primary reason for that is how unpopular it is in Japan. We've certainly had characters whose fanbases skew more toward the West - Ridley, K. Rool, Banjo - but Japanese audiences knew who those characters were. And could also purchase their games, because Mortal Kombat isn't getting localized to Japan anymore. I guess its unpopularity is kind of a vicious cycle, huh? It's not localized because it's unpopular, and it's unpopular at least in part due to it not getting localized.

Anyway, my point is, Mortal Kombat is effectively West-only. And while we've seen East-only characters get into Smash, that well has dried up in terms of fighters. Now they're other content only: assist trophies or spirits. And here's the thing about that - we don't have any West-only content, even of a nature as mild as a Sticker. We don't have anything from StarTropics, and that's a Nintendo series. All it gets is a mention in the Chronicle - only in the English version of Brawl.

Now, the reason this isn't a flat 0% is because I guarantee you more Japanese people know about Mortal Kombat than about StarTropics. It's a pretty big fighting game series, so I can safely say Sakurai's heard of it. Unlike StarTropics, where he may not actually know it exists. It would turn heads, even in Japan. I guess I just don't really know why it would be done.

Disclaimer: I do not speak Japanese and do not browse Japanese gaming fora, so my statements about the popularity of characters there should not be taken as an expert opinion. Also, I would like to issue an apology to the Mike Jones thread for all the things I said about StarTropics.

Want: 60%

I don't have a lot of personal connection to Mortal Kombat, but I'm always down for another well-known series to get put in Smash Bros. Also, yeah, remember when I said it was weird for my first post to have a 0% want score because I was probably going to give a lot of high scores? We're starting to see some of that in action.

Predictions:
A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief: 3.25%
Chibi-Robo: 8.53%

Let's do something spicy here. I'm gonna use 9 nominations on Junpei from Zero Escape, who I just recently created the support thread for. I'll give the remaining 1 nom to Giygas.

 

[DanganZilla5]

Test your might

Chance: 6%

Mortal Kombat is definitely iconic. It was one of the series that popularized fighting games during the 90s. It made such a big splash that it got mainstream attention because of how violent it was for the time and it's the reason why we have the ESRB rating. Throughout its lifetime, MK has consistently stayed in the minds of the general public. It is up there with Street Fighter and Tekken as one of the most famous fighting game franchises of all time. It is so big it got movies, an animated series (which I remember enjoying despite its horrible reputation), komics, and even a krossover game with DC characters (Not to mention Scorpion and Sub Zero appear in Injustice 1 and 2 respectively). To this day it is still going strong and has gotten the honor of including a lot of iconic guest characters. And of kourse, it has been on plenty of Nintendo systems.

Scorpion would undoubtedly be the character khosen. He is the face of the series with him being the dominant character in the box art and promotional material. He would have a unique moveset with his trademark Kunai that can be used as the grab or a special attack. He also has wielded other weapons like axes, he is proficient at close kombat, and can breathe fire. So if they are willing to tone Scorpion down, they can still make a moveset that feels brutal and klose to what Scorpion does in the game.....

.....but I don't think that will happen. MK is known for its violence and gore, and to take that away would mean they would be taking away a major part of MK that makes it MK. Even if that is not a big problem, there is still the fact that MK is banned in Japan. It's hard to imagine Nintendo going for a series that they kan't even advertise in their own country. Also, MK is a western series and once again I see us only getting one or two more western kharacters. Scorpion is definitely a big enough kharacter that I kould see him being a viable khoice, but the fact that MK is taboo and not popular in Japan makes me think it would be a low priority for Nintendo.

Going with my gut, I say he is very unlikely due to the series' obstacles in Japan and the fact that MK would not be fully represented if they out the blood and gore.

Correction: It turns out that MK is not banned in Japan, rather it is just not localized over there due to unpopularity. This does increase my chance score a bit, though I'm still weary on his chances mostly because of unpopularity in Japan and the series' main appeal not being able to work in Smash without raising the game's rating.

Want: 80%.

I suck at Mortal Kombat but man I'm a sucker instead for the music and great kharacters. MK has such an interesting history filled with mysteries and secrets. I enjoy reading about the lore and stories of the world. Scorpion is badass and has a great design. He would be fun, there are plenty of wicked cool stages to pick from, and I want that Mortal Kombat soundtrack in Smash. I recently got into MK a little more thanks to the Legends movie and I really enjoyed it.

I might type even more tomorrow but right now my eyes are getting heavy, The point is, MK is awesome and my wish is to have the MK theme in Smash, even if it is from a movie.

Edit: It would be great if Scorpion's spear was his standard special, just so that we can hear Kirby say, "Get over here!".

Predictions:
Microsoft rep - 25% (This will come down to Dragonborn)
Chibi-Robo - 5%

Noms: Vectorman x10

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Character who's totally banned and by no means not localized out of choice like countless other games, no sir!

Chance: 1% Let's get this out of the way first. Mortal Kombat is simply not localized due to the publisher not deeming it worth the costs, like with how Rayman Legends had to get a different publisher than Ubisoft in Japan and how Dead or Alive Volleyball 3 or whatever it was didn't make it outside Japan. That's a significant difference from being outright banned like many foolishly say despite being backed up from **** all. Now to get to the actual rating, Mortal Kombat is an outright juggernaut of a franchise which has always been a huge name, so fame? Check. Influence on the gaming industry? Check, it gave us rating boards, which is a good thing imo. The real issues I see here are Japan's lack of popularity and Sakurai seeing other characters as more interesting. The violence clearly isn't an issue as it's entirely possible to tone him down, especially seen with Injustice having Scorpion as DLC and there's also how Smash has been willing to censor characters from gorey games before, Bayonetta and Joker coming to mind.

Want: Abstain, despite defending it like this, I don't really care about MK, I was going to try 11 if Robocop could be turned into Janperson but alas

Velvet Crowe x5

 

[amageish]

On Scorpion: Yeah, uh, legacy is good, but not being (legally) sold in the region that Smash Bros is developed is an obstacle.

Also, if anyone has been placing bets in the "Who will be the next regular to leave RTC?" competition... It's me! I'm leaving - at least until the next reveal/Direct-prediction-day.

Honestly, I've just not loved being negative on odds lately and would rather take my speculation in totally non-pragmatic directions. So, I'll be making up some movesets and just hanging out in support threads. If anyone wants to take up the Monika costume brigade, then I'll come back for that day to help boost her want (and not help much with chance score, as I feel like Dan probably wouldn't have taken the risk of tweeting this if he was getting content in Smash).

hops on the Logic Dive surfboard and flies away

 

[Lyncario]

His pose in the original Mortal Kombat is a reference to how the scorpion stands for hunting or something.

Chances: 1%

Mortal Kombat is a very popular, relevant, and iconic video game series with Nintendo history dating back to the Snes. Mortal Kombat became extremly popular because of how violent the fatalities were, and they pretty much made MK a part of gaming history with the age rating becoming a thing in the US with the ersb, though it hapened in the early 2000s in Europe and Japan. So, Mortal Kombat should be very good for most part, considering that Scorpion can be toned dow like he was in Injustice. However, his big problem is his lack of popularity in Japan. Some people say that MK is banned in Japan, but that's not really the case, rather it's just not localised due to a lack of popularity, even if there's still some MK tournaments hapening here and there, it's not much. Really the lack of popularity in Japan is the one big thing against him, and that's pretty much it, otherwise he can be toned down enough so that he wouldn't be too gory for Smash, like he was toned down in Injustice.

Want: 1%

I don't like Mortal Kombat, like, not at all. For me, it's the most boring and pointless fighting game on the market, it's only gimmicks are that it has aparently good writing, and the violence that I do not like at all. But otherwise, I look at the gameplay and ask myself how the hell are people able to support how sluggish and hox badly animated everything is. No, really, Mortal Kombat just has such bad animations, especialy for a AAA game owned by Warner Bros, like come on, ArcSys does infinitely better with a fraction of the ressources. Also, Scorpion bores me in itself. Like, yeah, chains, and fire, and he's a ninja, and he just bores me, like the rest of his entire series who's popularity comes at 95% from the exxagerated violence it.

Nominatios

Cynthia x1
Boss rush x9

Predictions

Microsoft character who is neither Steve or Master Chief: 4.2%

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

Even if that is not a big problem, there is still the fact that MK is banned in Japan.

He's not, why do people still say this misinformation?

 

[Cutie Gwen]

He's not, why do people still say this misinformation?

Because people see that it doesn't get released in Japan and assume it's banned, doesn't help that Maximilian Dood, a youtuber who primarily covers fighting games, also made this assumption and said it in a video recently

 

[DanganZilla5]

He's not, why do people still say this misinformation?

It's not? Dam I need to correct my post.

On Scorpion: Yeah, uh, legacy is good, but not being (legally) sold in the region that Smash Bros is developed is an obstacle.

Also, if anyone has been placing bets in the "Who will be the next regular to leave RTC?" competition... It's me! I'm leaving - at least until the next reveal/Direct-prediction-day.

Honestly, I've just not loved being negative on odds lately and would rather take my speculation in totally non-pragmatic directions. So, I'll be making up some movesets and just hanging out in support threads. If anyone wants to take up the Monika costume brigade, then I'll come back for that day to help boost her want (and not help much with chance score, as I feel like Dan probably wouldn't have taken the risk of tweeting this if he was getting content in Smash).

hops on the Logic Dive surfboard and flies away

Understandable Amageish. We look forward to seeing you again when the time comes.

 

[fogbadge]

hmm im gonna abstain, though i dont think the gore will be disqualifying, isnt persona and metal gear fairly graphic as well?

nom qbby x5

looking forward to tomorrow, sure everyones gonna say chibi's got no chance but it will be interesting to see what you all really think of him. even though i am anticipating a fair amount of abstaining

 

[Lyncario]

hmm im gonna abstain, though i dont think the gore will be disqualifying, isnt persona and metal gear fairly graphic as well?

Not really for Persona, Metal Gear isn't too gory outside of MGR from what I remember, and Bayonneta is also very gory very often.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

GoodGrief741 am I correct in assuming everyone gets 10 noms by default tomorrow as it's 2 different ratings, meaning we can get up to 20?

 

[UserKev]

Honestly, I rate Scorpion's odds at 50/50. What's already been mentioned, he has the iconic badge of honor, legacy and even legendary catch phrase. But in a literal sense, he's not likely. Only thing saving Scorpion is sheer overwhelming western fan demand that will probably need another decade of build up at most. If Scorpion has any blueprints, he's the next character to face the Ridley obstacles.

Want: 100%. Well, yeah. I grew up with Mortal Kombat. Japan may be unfamiliar with the character for the most part, but that's not to say people wouldn't fall in love with the character from a gameplay perspective. How many of us knew who Captain Falcon, Marth, Roy or Ice Climbers were before Smash 64 and Melee? Yup.

 

[Blankiturayman]

Was busy for a bit, but I think I can come back to rate every now and then. Anyways, nice character.
Scorpion
Chance: 5%
A while ago, I used to be one of these that said "no, it'll never happen, MK is banned in Japan!" until I went to actually check for myself and found that there was absolutely no source for this claim other than just a Wikipedia page mentioning it, also with no source (It even says "citation needed". It's just funny). So yeah I think it's eligible. Mortal Kombat is one of the most important fighting games out there, even if not so much nowadays, it has a huge legacy spawning from as far back as 1992. The problem here is-- it has almost no presence in Japan despite this, purely for it as mentioned, not releasing there. (Though I've yet to see a source for the "banned" claim). So while it's not impossible by any means it's also got a hard way getting in, especially when there's not many DLC slots left. As for the character himself, Scorpion, it seems he'd be the go-to if they ever went for a MK character, so I think he'd be the most likely, and in fact probably the choice they go with unless there's some special circumstances.

Want: Abstain
I'm not too well acquainted with MK, but I'd be completely fine with it. It's a pretty big franchise and it'd be pretty crazy to see Scorpion in the game, even with some of the already crazy additions we've gotten. From the very little I've tried and seen of the games, I think Scorpion would actually work pretty well for Smash while adapting to its style (IE: not using gory moves) because the more gory ones would be the fatalities and a few other moves. In conclusion: it'd be cool, just abstaining because I haven't played this series that much.

Predictions:
Chibi-Robo: 4%
Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Chief: 9% (Feeling it'll be low after getting two MS characters, but who knows?)

Nominations:
Worms x10

 

[BowserKing]

Scorpion

Chance: 5 to 15%. The 5% chance is because Mortal Kombat got banned from Japan, making it seem unlikely to make it in. The 15% is because of the popularity elsewhere. Thing is, Super Smash Bros would be a bloodless game, and many Mortal Kombat games has lots of blood, but if Snake, Bayonetta and Joker can get in, Scorpion could get in as well.

Want: 60%. He would be a fun character to play as, and I can see him in multiple fights. One is against Snake, Bayonetta and Joker, and another is against Little Mac, Ryu and Terry, other being free for all’s. Overall, Scorpion has some potential to be in Smash.

Prediction (Microsoft Rep that is not Master Chief (5%) and Chibi-Robo (10%)

Noms: 5 for Concept: Second F-Zero Rep

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Post dem yellow characters
Chance: 0.5%
Mortal Kombat is a hugely iconic fighting game series and a piece of gaming history. Scorpion might be a little spooky but he and his series can definitey be toned down to fit into Smash. However, the MK games not getting localized for Japan sounds like a huge dealbreaker when it comes down to it. Wouldn't make much sense for Japanese Nintendo to choose scorpion. Unless they specifically want another FG character, there are more sensible western options to choose from.

Want: Abstaining

Chibi Robo: 2.05%
Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Chief: 11.47%
Beat x5

 

[Lionfranky]

Scorpion

Chance: 4%

I'm suprised by persistent myth that MK is banned in Japan. I guess it may well be since it's not localized in Japan... I can see Sakurai skipping MK due to that reason alone. While I believe series like MGS and Bayonetta kinda pushed what kind of violent series can get into Smash, MK is still league above them in term of sheer gore and violence. I'm entirely not sure whether Sakurai is willing to tone down Scorpion when his motto is respecting original source. Sure, Injustice proves that Scorpion can be toned down, but I'm still torn between on this guy.

Want: 65%

I would be surprised and happy for his fans. I think MK earned spot in hall of gaming. It would be fun to see people's reaction. But, I wouldn't hold my breath. There are other characters I want before him, but I wouldn't be mad if he gets in.

Nom: Characters that don't have games on Nintendo platform x 10

 

[fogbadge]

Not really for Persona, Metal Gear isn't too gory outside of MGR from what I remember, and Bayonneta is also very gory very often.

but the point still stands?

 

[Ridrool64]

Flawless victory.

Chance: 10%. Whereas Frisk's problem comes from content already existing, Scorpion is the opposite; we can't be assured Mortal Kombat will get anything. It's infamous for its gory kills, and unlike say DOOM, you are definitely there for the Fatalities. They would provide Sakurai something to work with, but that's only if he doesn't find the character/series too distasteful to work on. I don't think Nintendo would reject a Mortal Kombat representative, though... but then there's the issue I've yet to mention. Mortal Kombat is a western franchise that does not do very well in Japan, or in fact do well at all in Japan. I'm not sure how true the ban stuff is, but it wouldn't surprise me too much. For those who think Nintendo would want to stay away from controversy (despite the fact that, if the events of last week are any indicator, they are not afraid of controversy in regards to Smash), then this is an extremely unlikely choice.

He may also compete with Raiden and Liu Kang, but Scorpion is the face of the series the way Ryu is. Still, I'd not count his competition out entirely.

Want: 60%. While my big beef with Sans is that what he represents is way too specific, Scorpion does not have that issue at all. It's been a hot minute but I do enjoy me some MK. I prefer using Jax, though. Still, Scorpion IMO has got what it takes and would be a good inclusion. Not sure if I'd care about what he could offer besides himself, but hey, I don't care too much. And who can say no to some good old fashioned industry changing franchises making it in?

I would be surprised if non-Steve/Chief MS rep broke 0.92%, unless you want to count Bethesda but I don't since they weren't the case. Chibi-Robo will snag a 1.32%. Red x 10. If today is the new nominations day and Red is on the schedule already, CJ x 10.

 

[Lyncario]

but the point still stands?

Yes.

 

[Sari]

Scorpion

Chance: 0%
Since there seems to be some confusion over whether or not MK is banned in Japan, I'm pretty sure it can be summarized like this:

"WB Games won't bother to localize MK for various reasons... but even if they did try to localize it there, it would be banned from retail due to CERO unless they heavily censored it."

CERO does indeed restrict games with heavy violence/gore against human characters (which is why games like Doom are able to get around it since you're technically dismembering demons). A few examples of games censored to fit with Japanese law include include GTA V (which cut all of the graphic scenes from the torture mission) as well as The Last of Us Part II (which got rid of just about all of the dismemberment/damage wounds). Now of course the Japanese government isn't going to raid your house if you have a copy of MK11 on your hands, but CERO's restrictions would indeed prevent the game from being publicly sold in its current state if WB Games wanted to sell it over there. Of course like the two previously mentioned examples, NR Studios/WB Games could censor the entire game to work around it. However that wouldn't be worth it since the series has done poorly over there which is why MK has been absent in Japan for so long.

Think of it like trying to bring a lit cigarette into a non-smoking zone: you'd be kicked out/banned if you tried to do so based on the rules that zone has, but since you're smoking away from it then you technically aren't banned. So really the answer to "Is Mortal Kombat banned from Japan" is yes... and no?

Really all that matters at the end of the day is that the latest MK games haven't been publicly available in Japan for years now. Even when the MK games were available in Japan, they have not performed well over there (ctrl+f "Japan" to get to the relevant part). I'm a firm believer that if a character/series flops in Japan (or isn't even available there), then their chances for Smash are nonexistent. Add in NR Studios being a Western third-party company and yeah I don't see Scorpion happening anytime soon. Most likely scenario I can see happening is a Mii Costume.

Want: 10%
I'm a giant fan of fighting games but MK is the big series that I just could never get into. The characters never really interested me, I'm not a fan of the gameplay (especially with blocking being an actual button instead of just holding back), and the games are too dark and gloomy for me. Not to mention I still have some other FG characters I'd still like to see first like Sol Badguy, a Tekken rep, and even some more Street Fighter/SNK characters like Chun-Li and Kyo.

Also this doesn't really affect my want score too much but... I do feel like one of the main appeals of MK is the violence and fatalities. Don't get me wrong: the series has done so well for a ton of other reasons, but if you say "Mortal Kombat" to someone then fatalities/gore will almost always be the first thing they think of (apart from maybe the theme song and "get over here!"). Now obviously if Scorpion gets into Smash, I'm not expecting him to rip out Mario's spinal cord or anything like that. However... Smash would most likely avoid all references to hyper violence and just make Scorpion a normal fighter. I feel like that would be really lame since the over the top violence has been one of the main selling points of MK. Yes I know Scorpion can be safe for Smash as seen in Injustice, but after getting characters like Min Min and Steve who feel very true to their respective series, a watered down Scorpion would just feel off.

I really do feel like Finish Him at the very least should be present in some form or another considering how iconic it is. Maybe a unique victory screen where you can finish off the last opponent in a variety of [non-graphic] ways? But that might be pushing it.

I'll give some small points just because Scorpion is super iconic and I wouldn't want to miss on the possibility of hearing Kirby say "get over here!"

-----

Microsoft rep that isn't Chief chance prediction: 12.50% (mainly depends on whether or not people will include Bethesda as part of this)
Chibi-Robo chance prediction: 0.85%

Nominations:
Concept: The remaining SSB4 DLC Mii Costumes return (or get a deluxe enhancement) x10

 

[GoodGrief741]

Toasty

Chance: 15%
Yeah I went there.

Now, in an attempt to clarify misconceptions: no, Mortal Kombat isn't banned in Japan. It's just not localized there. The franchise is kinda stuck in a tough position, where if they release it uncensored they'll get the harshest rating from CERO, and therefore most retailers won't carry the game (in a country where PC gaming is nowhere near as prevalent); but if they censor it to the point that CERO will be OK with it, it'll no longer be Mortal Kombat. That does not mean it's banned, any more than Mother 3 or Super Robot Wars or those Dead or Alive VR games are banned over here.

So anyway, yeah, Mortal Kombat isn't sold in Japan nowadays. I don't think it matters that much? Like, the reason why we've been told that characters like Takamaru didn't make the cut is because part of the audience wouldn't be familiar with them. I don't think that applies to Mortal Kombat. Not only were older games in the franchise released over there, but also I imagine that the series is still known to them. It's an incredibly iconic and influential series. The timing's also pretty good, with MK11 recently releasing, day and date on Switch (there was an interview with the devs a while back where they were surprised that Mortal Kombat was a priority for Nintendo), and the new movie coming next January (barring pandemic shenanigans). Add to that its incredible legacy and the fact that it's clearly a frontrunner for its owner, and I don't think it's that outside the realm of possibility.

Want: 100%
Three words: Ryu versus Scorpion. Enough said.

Noms: Cooking Mama x10
Microsoft after Steve prediction: 22.17%
Chibi-Robo prediction: 1.26%

GoodGrief741 am I correct in assuming everyone gets 10 noms by default tomorrow as it's 2 different ratings, meaning we can get up to 20?

Double days are usually just the same amount of noms, just with double the effort. But this is the first time we've had one since we added the 10 noms rule. So I'll kick this question up to TCT~Phantom

amageish It's very sad to see you go! But I hope I'll be seeing you around the Discord and other parts of the 'boards.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Remember, after Scorpion's day, the next week will be decided. So if you want to get your characters in, today's your last chance!

Also, the word comes from the phantom man himself: as tomorrow is a double day, you get double noms. So that's 10 for a normal rating and 20 if you give each character the big 5-10 sentence rating! (Hopefully this means people will give Chibi the time of day)

Tagging Cutie Gwen since she asked

Spoiler: Nominations post-Frisk pre-Scorpion

Red (Angry Birds) x200
[Rerate] The Knight x190
Miriam x170
[Rerate] Maxwell x165
Cynthia (Pokémon) x150
Hajime Hinata x150
Concept: The remaining SSB4 DLC Mii Costumes return (or get the deluxe treatment) x141

150 - 101

T-Rex Runner x140
Don-chan x135
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x124
Vectorman x120
D.Va x115
[Rerate] Monokuma x110
Boss: Ender Dragon x103

100 - 51

[Rerate] Arle Nadja x100
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x100
Zero (Mega Man) x95
Crazy Dave x95
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x93
Carl Johnson x90
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x90
Riptor x85
Qbby x85
Stage: Bowser's Castle x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Boss: Rayquaza x80
Fulgore x79
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Giygas x70
Worms x70
Concept: A 4X strategy rep x65
Cooking Mama x60
Echo (Olimar) x56
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
John Marston x55
Jin Sakai x55
Ghirahim x55

50 - 25

Tetra x45
Mii Costume: 2B x40
Echo (Bowser) x35
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x30
Ryza (Atelier) x25
Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x25
Velvet Crowe x25

Under 25

Concept: Characters that don't have games on Nintendo platforms x20
Yarn Yoshi x15
Billy & Jimmy Lee x15
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x15
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Estelle Bright x10
Mii Costume: Zagreus x10
Mii Costume: Madeline x10
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
Stage: Tetris x5
[Rerate] Agumon x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
[Rerate] Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x5

Monokuma and Boss: Ender Dragon fight past 100 noms.

Cooking Mama serves up 50 noms.

Velvet Crowe loots 25 noms.

Today's newcomer is a rerate of Shovel Knight, with 5 noms!

ZeroJanitor As much as it pains me to say this, Guybrush can't be nominated as he doesn't have a support thread. Do you have a second option?

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I honestly don't care for Mortal Kombat. Though here, it's a case of me never being able to get into the series: not a big fan of gore for the sake of gore.

Nominations: [Rerate] Monokuma x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Scorpion

Chance: 0.5% - Not feeling confident in Scorpion at all. Despite his pedigree, the fact that his games barely exist in Japan is not a good sign, though I do find it odd that Nintendo secured Mortal Kombat 11. Furthermore is the franchise's reputation, the over the top gory fatalities are basically a major draw and series staple for the franchise, so removing them would be unfaithful to the source material. And Sakurai loves to be as faithful as possible, so he'd have no way of faithfully implementing Scorpion without including distasteful content. So It seems more likely that Sakurai would just opt to do what he did with Heihachi. Nonetheless, Scorpion does have plenty of non-gory moves, so moveset potential is no issue. Though being a Western franchise also introduces its' own hill to climb.

Want: 0% - Scorpion on his own seems like an alright character, and does have some interesting moves. But its' the reputation of the franchise that really keeps me from considering it. Very grim, dark, gloomy atmosphere, some rather sickening implications (Motaro claiming souls, etc) and of course, the intense gore. It just feels wrong to see these characters have their spines ripped out. Granted, I wouldn't mind a heavily toned-down Scorpion, in fact it'd be pretty funny. My friends and I added a random Motaro fighter to our MUGEN roster and removed his fatalities CNS to prevent him from doing them, and we now call him Reformed Motaro. It'd be very funny to see something like this officially. Though, despite that, with only four slots left there are a bunch of other characters I'd much rather see.


Nominations:
Don-chan x10

Predictions:
Non Steve/Chief Microsoft Character - 10.77% - Really depends on whether or not Bethesda is counted or not.
Chibi-Robo - 1.22% - Considering the state of the franchise I'm sure most will agree that his possible Smash outings are looking grim.

 

[7NATOR]

Man I Saw Scorpion and I had to get in here

Chance: 85%

Japan and Gore are the big things Going against Scorpion. The Gore Part isn't that much of an issue I would say. Injustice shows MK Characters functioning without Fatalities, and you Can still have Fatalities in Smash as well anyway. they don't need to Dismember

Japan is a Big Point against him, but I be honest Scorpion has Enough in his Pedigree to Overcome Japan, here's why

-MK11 Top 5 Selling game of 2019
-Nintendo Insisted that WB Games put MK11 On switch when WB was apprehensive of the Idea. Nintendo said there was an Audience for Mortal Kombat
-MK11 Was number 1 in charts for April and May I believe. this was around the Time FP2 was being decided
-Ed Boon been mentioning about Mortal Kombat X Smash since 2015 I believe. He does it from time from time, like in 2018. No Mention of Mortal Kombat X Smash in 2019 or 2020
-SSBU Ultimate Twitter account did a Poll asking fans whether they prefer Scorpion or Sub-Zero in Smash. Scorpion won. I forgot what year it was, but it was either Early 2018 or Early 2019
-VERY Good Nintendo History.
-Ed Boon was interviewed on Mortal Kombat in Smash. Gave answer that did not Implicate Mortal Kombat Content in Smash, or No Mortal Kombat Content in Smash. Different from Doomguy, Tracer, Ryza Interviews
-Arc System Spirits, but Sol and Ragna Still missing might imply more content from them. Fighting Game costumes come with Fighting Game characters, which Scorpion is
-Mortal Kombat Very Iconic
-Ed Boon wanted Mortal Kombat Vs Street Fighter. A Game based around it might not work, but Smash could be the Perfect Place for it
-Smash Sells Majorly in the West over Japan. Japan only covered around 3-4 Million of the 20+ Million Sales of Ultimate. Place like North America and Europe Cover most of the Rest
-Mortal Kombat is Iconic in The West, and Honestly Pretty much anywhere that's not Japan, or perhaps any Eastern Place
-Mortal Kombat bring more Mature Audience to Smash. Kind of like Joker, except Mortal Kombat is Much Bigger Franchise (in West)
-Scorpion being a fighting game character means it be easy to Visualize and Conceptualize a Moveset

I Think Scorpion is Much more Likely than people are making him out to be. I'm Confident in his Chances

Want:75%

I Want Scorpion more than Most characters. Now I don't want him as Much as Shadow the Hedgehog, or Even Dante, or Sora. I'd also prefer other Ninjas like Noob, Rain, Smoke, But I think Scorpion would be really Cool as well. Mortal Kombat would be cool in Smash. Yes

 

[fogbadge]

Chibi-Robo - 1.22% - Considering the state of the franchise I'm sure most will agree that his possible Smash outings are looking grim.

im gonna hear that one a lot tomorrow

 

[3DSNinja]

FRIENDSHIP
Chance: 45%: This is the best rating I can give him, tbh. The fact that he's an unknown in japan and that the gore is a major factor definently is a problem. . But on the other hand, Mortal Kombat is huge and a new fighting game seems likely. So a 45% in my opinion seems fair.
Want: 75%: I would prefer someone like Johnny Cage or Sub-Zero, but Scorpion would be cool, especially since he could be a semi-grappler. And I love grapplyers in fighters, and Smash really needs one. Put Mike Haggar in Smash. So, I'd really like Scorpion. Plus, it'd be cool if they could incoporate Friendships and Fatalities into his moveset, but I digress.
Nominations: Hajime Hinata x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Dude, Im like, totally a Scorpio (Im not I am a Capricorn)

5% Chance

I get that MK is a big big deal over here, but tbh I doubt that it can happen due to just how much of a non factor it is in Japan. While saying it is outright banned is a bit of a step, it honestly has basically no foothold in the area. A global foothold is essential for any western character in my eyes, so Scorpion does not finish it in my opinion.

I do think MK does have a slim chance tho. MK is a big deal in many ways, it is one of the most iconic fighting games...ever for a reason. MK is something that just would make sense in gaming's greatest cross over.

In terms of censoring them, just make it so they don't make Mario bleed and have Scorpion use the finisher from MK1. You know the one.

100% Want

If we do not get a Sub Zero echo I would be mad, but tbh I could see us getting it lol. But yeah, MK is cool. The lore might be super dumb, but its just so silly. Nothing says fun like seeing the sheer carnage and charm MK has. It honestly is a big piece of video game culture, and has earned its spot in smash. I personally think that it would be fun to see the stage choice, I would go with the iconic bridge stage in MK1.

Neku Rerate x 10

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Concept: A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief AND Chibi-Robo.

Predict Red from Angry Birds.

It's worth noting that Microsoft purchased Bethesda a few months ago. I'm not sure if they'd be counted for this rating or not so take that as you will.

Megadoomer

-----

Music for today:

Microsoft tunes

Spoiler: Microsoft Music

Chibi-Robo tunes

Spoiler: Chibi-Robo Music

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain. …Say, why don’t we have tomorrow be a day where we describe what we’re thankful for with Ultimate?

Red: 20%

Noms:
Crazy Dave x5