Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[GoodGrief741]

How in all hell did I write a post with every realistic Microsoft candidate and miss Raz? I'm sorry Tim Schafer, I've failed you

Spoiler: Nominations post-Concept: A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief/Chibi-Robo pre-Red

Don-chan x155
T-Rex Runner x150
Vectorman x150
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x134
[Rerate] Monokuma x120
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x119

150 - 101

D.Va x115
Carl Johnson x115
[Rerate] Arle Nadja x105
Crazy Dave x105
Boss: Ender Dragon x103

100 - 51

Qbby x100
Worms x100
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x100
Zero (Mega Man) x95
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x93
Cooking Mama x90
Riptor x85
Stage: Bowser's Castle x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Boss: Rayquaza x80
Fulgore x79
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: A 4X strategy rep x75
John Marston x75
Giygas x71
Echo (Olimar) x56
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55
Ghirahim x55

50 - 25

Mii Costume: 2B x50
Concept: Characters that don't have games on Nintendo platforms x50
Tetra x45
Velvet Crowe x45
Echo (Bowser) x35
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x30
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x30
[Rerate] Neku x30
Ryza (Atelier) x25
Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x25

Under 25

Junpei (Zero Escape) x18
Yarn Yoshi x15
Billy & Jimmy Lee x15
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x15
Filia (Skullgirls) x11
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Estelle Bright x10
Mii Costume: Zagreus x10
Mii Costume: Madeline x10
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
Stage: Tetris x5
[Rerate] Agumon x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
[Rerate] Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x5
[Rerate] Master Chief x5

Don-chan marches past T-Rex Runner and becomes the king of the noms list! Vectorman vectors past Mii Costume: Monika and ties with the T-Rex for runner-up (get it?) Monokuma pops past D.Va in sixth place, and Carl Johnson steals a spot alongside D.Va for seventh.

Edit: in an upset, turns out that Concept: Boss Rush takes seventh place from both D.Va and CJ

Arle Nadja and Crazy Dave grow past 100 noms.

Beat and Neku skate out of the under 25 club.

Joining the list today are Filia, with 11 noms, and a rerate of Master Chief, with 5.

Lyncario You gave out 20 noms (10 to Boss Rush, 10 to LoL), but you only had 15. How would you like to distribute them?

 

[GoodGrief741]

Red's already a fighter chance:100%

Actual chance: 17%
The more I thought about this, the likelier it seemed. Angry Birds needs no introduction. Even if it didn't invent the "physics-based game where you destroy structures with a slingshot" genre, it's still its foremost example. It's probably the franchise you think of when you think of mobile games. It's super mainstream and recognizable to a huge audience. Call me crazy, but after Mr. Biggest Game Ever, all of a sudden getting these uber-casual games doesn't seem so farfetched. Angry Birds is on Nintendo consoles after all, and honestly it feels like that's the only prerequisite nowadays. But, yeah, it's Western, Rovio isn't particularly close to Nintendo, there's no demand (not even ironic), so all of that still drags it down. I haven't played much of Angry Birds, but I do know it has a ton of spin-offs with different gameplay - even an RPG and a kart racer. So surely moveset potential isn't an issue.

Want: 50%
I really just don't care. Angry Birds is harmless but also boring. I'm not going to pretend like it isn't an iconic franchise, but it didn't invent or perfect a genre or bring anything new to the table. It's not bad, but it's also not great. My biggest exposure to the IP is the movies, which are trash, but I'm not going to blame the games for that. Angry Birds would just be in line with what I expect from this pass, so whatever.

Noms: Cooking Mama x10
Hollow Knight again: did anything happen since we last rated this guy? I'm just gonna go with 15%

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I don't have an opinion on Angry Birds.

Nominations: [Rerate] Monokuma x5

 

[Lyncario]

Lyncario You gave out 20 noms (10 to Boss Rush, 10 to LoL), but you only had 15. How would you like to distribute them?

Ah, I misscounted the numer of lines I did. 10 for the boss rush and 5 for LoL then.

 

[ahemtoday]

Abstain. I don't really have an opinion on Angry Birds at all.

Since my nominations have been all over the place so far, let me keep that going by putting all my noms toward Neku.

 

[Jomosensual]

Red from Angry Birds

Chance 15 - Ok, so this actually isn't the dumbest idea? To start off, it's iconic enough to branch out into non gaming media with it's own tv and movie series. Obviously its iconic, even as a mobile game, to the point where there are countless remakes and versions of the game. It without a doubt popularized the slingshot stuff into other stuff and destroy it genre of games, which feels like it's pretty big now. I feel like if we're gonna go for a 3rd party mobile rep then Red is it. Either that or a cluster of Angry Birds work together, which feels like a bigger possibility now that I think about it. There are 2 big negitives I can think of right now though, which is that Red is still from a mobile game and we still have 0 non console gaming reps right now. Then there's also the fact he's a western rep and given Nintendo's history of picking them for Smash it feels like the competition is way to fierce to see a likely path. There's also the issue of moveset potential and as I said above, a cluster of birds might be a better way to rep the series. Overall though, Angry Birds is for sure a mobile series that passes the eye test for me.

Want 60 - So I know in the past I've said I don't like mobile games and I don't want them in Smash, but this is one exception to that rule for me. Angry Birds is iconic enough to break into pop culture for a while in a way that even the most beloved series can't always do. So yeah, it feels like it's earned a place in the ultimate video game crossover.

Predictions
Hollow Knight - 25%

Noms:
John Marston x 10

 

[Simnm]

Abstain
Noms:masterchief(rerate)×5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Gonna abstain since I'm feeling exhausted today, but I will give my two cents on Red. The iconicness and place in history Angry Birds has has more than earned it a spot in Smash. However, despite its' pedigree as the game that kicked off mobile gaming, that effect was mainly felt in the west, and while the series has a presence in Japan it didn't make nearly the same impact there. Being a Western character and a mobile rep is a difficult double-whammy, which is a shame since Red or a cluster of birds together could make for a cool moveset!

Nominations:
Don-chan x5

Predictions:
Hollow Knight - 26.63%

 

[Blankiturayman]

Abstaining for today. I'll just say that, given some of the stuff we've gotten in this post-launch period, I wouldn't be too surprised if anything Angry Birds got into the game. I get that it became really big (even for it to get a movie) but I just don't feel much about it one way or another.

Noms: Worms x5

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I honestly forgot Angry Birds existed and have no comment, double abstaining.


Velvet Crowe x5

 

[Ridrool64]

Young Link be crying like he had a chance at being the first slingshot rep.

Chance: 15%. Now this is a character who needs to do a bit of stretching to work, as without giving him the movie design (for the game character) then I begin to struggle with what you could actually do with the character (though help from the other birds would work). However past that, this could be a sleeper pick we're all not noticing. The iconic orb birb would still be there, most likely as part of the specials? But this isn't a sell me on. It's a genuine, interesting question. From what I can tell, Angry Birds was the game that made mobile a big platform to begin with (even if Candy Crush Saga solidified that), and was quite the phenomenon in the 2009 - 2012 era. Even with the hype of the game dying down, it still had a movie that did... well about as well as most video game movies do, and then it had a sequel that was the surprisingly best recieved video game movie... ever. So the franchise isn't dead by any means. That being said, this would not only be a challenge for Sakurai, but may not have recieved the same level of notoriety in Japan, so I would hesitate to say this guy is anywhere near a frontrunner.

Want: 40%. I think that this is another character who would represent an interesting part of gaming history. One that is much wider in scope than Smash ever will be. But make no mistake, this isn't somebody I really really want. More of an interesting choice, in my eyes. Somebody who Sakurai would have to get wildly creative with, but somebody who, while not fitting in with the conventional way we interpret Smash Bros. roster picks, is a valued inclusion to most people. And plus the Angry Birds theme not being in Smash is criminal for gaming history, although simply a Mii Costume hat would suffice for me.

The Knight has not been Mii'd yet, some will think it's just gonna happen later and others will think it's just not gonna happen, but I'll go with 18.63% as I think at least a few people will consider this guy a sleeper/serious contender. CJ x 10.

 

[Sari]

Red (Angry Birds)

Chance: 10%
With the series being downloaded by just about everyone, Angry Birds has shown itself to be super successful. Not many videogame series can brag about having both a multitude of animated series as well as two theatrical films with one of them grossing +300 million (and even featuring mainstream actors like Josh Gad and Bill Hader). In short: Angry Birds is big, and although it may not be as popular as it once was in the early 2010's, the series is certainly still recognizable and popular.

Now would Nintendo be interested in this? Possibly. Adding in some Angry Birds content could be a good way to bring in people from the casual smartphone game crowd. However, the series is Western and we still don't know if Nintendo would be willing to add a character from a phone game series (IIRC the only mobile game content in Smash ever is that one main menu remix from FE Heroes). Plus when it comes to attracting smartphone players there are a lot of other options as well such as various gacha games and even Fortnite.

Something I think should be brought up is that this summer, Nintendo confirmed that they were slowing down with their mobile games following both AC:NH's giant success as well as disappointing numbers in just about all of their mobile titles. This could mean either they'd want to add a smartphone character to possibly increase those numbers or just forget about the mobile crowd altogether. Take it however you would but I'm leaning towards the second scenario being more likely.

Want: 0%
Yet another giant game series I just never really bothered to get into. Pretty much every kid through 2009 - 2011 had this game on their phone except for me (both because I didn't have a smartphone at the time and wasn't really interested in it). Aside from bringing me back horrible memories of my middle school days, I just can't see myself getting excited for an Angry Birds character. I feel like it would be really contrived similar to Piranha Plant. For what it's worth, I think I'd actually enjoy Angry Birds if I properly wanted to get into it, though I can't say the same about a character in Smash. I think Angry Birds would be much better represented through a stage and maybe a few spirits/songs. Nothing more.

-----

Hollow Knight chance prediction: 20.00%

Nominations:
Carl Johnson x20

 

[fogbadge]

I honestly forgot Angry Birds existed

lucky

 

[warpenguin55]

Red Bird

Chance: 0%
It's been a long time since Angry Birds was big. In fact, I don't think it's really been relevant since before Smash 4. That's not a good thing in this case.


Want: 2%
This would be an amazing idea for a stage or assist trophy. As funny as it would be to see this happen, I'll pass.

Noms: LoL Rep x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Red Bird

Chance: 0%
It's been a long time since Angry Birds was big. In fact, I don't think it's really been relevant since before Smash 4. That's not a good thing in this case.


Want: 2%
This would be an amazing idea for a stage or assist trophy. As funny as it would be to see this happen, I'll pass.

Noms: LoL Rep x5

How is Angry Birds not relevant? Since 2015 there's been 12 games and 2 movies.

 

[kaithehedgefox]

How is Angry Birds not relevant? Since 2015 there's been 12 games and 2 movies.

Angry Birds is and has been another iconic franchise. Not complaining, nor upset, but Angry Birds lacks significant console game history.

 

[fogbadge]

How is Angry Birds not relevant? Since 2015 there's been 12 games and 2 movies.

thats not necessarily a good thing

 

[kaithehedgefox]

thats not necessarily a good thing

It's not a bad thing either.

 

[fogbadge]

It's not a bad thing either.

really? it all looked very bad

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

thats not necessarily a good thing

Yes it is... what? Being relevant is a good thing, I feel as though Banjo and K Rool were special because they were popular in the Smash community. People really wanted them.

 

[fogbadge]

Yes it is... what? Being relevant is a good thing, I feel as though Banjo and K Rool were special because they were popular in the Smash community. People really wanted them.

i was referring to the movies not the relevance

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate The Knight from Hollow Knight.

Predict Miriam from Bloodstained.

Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the Hollow Knight mood:

Spoiler: Hollow Knight Music

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain.

Miriam: 40%

Noms:
Crazy Dave x5

 

[Sari]

I'm going to abstain as well, both because I'm busy atm and I want to actually play Hollow Knight before I give a full rating. Needless to say, it's on my checklist of games to get during Christmas.

Miriam chance prediction: 4.22%

Nominations:
Carl Johnson x5

 

[ahemtoday]

Abstaining, again. I don't really have an opinion on Hollow Knight.

Nominations: Neku x5

 

[fogbadge]

hmm the knight.

well i cant think of anything to say that wouldnt just be repeating myself last time, so ill abstain and nom qbby x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Nothing has really changed for Hollow Knight/ The Knight so I'll drop my rating from February on him now. As a small bit of extra info, no, I don't think Steve hurt him here. While technically an indie, nothing about the Sakurai trailer or reveal made me think that Nintendo considered that aspect of him with his selection.

Hollow Knight

Chance 10 - The game was a complete hit on the switch. That helps his chances a lot and things are looking better for him now that we're on a fighters pass he's not too late for. We're also getting another game in the series and Nintendo is clearly high on it and Team Cherry, who I believe was a part of a big pitch recently(I want to say it was China but IDK on that). Overall though, he's still an indie and indie reps have gotten basically everything but playable so far. I dont think that changes now. Hornet also would make more sense to promote Silksong, which is apparently due out this year. Think Hollow Knight is more likely as a Premium Mii Costume, which would be fine with me.

Want 100 - I loved this game. The music, the art, the lore. Just all of it. Fantastic game. If I hadn't played it IDK what I'd think about the Knight in Smash, but I enjoyed the game so much I'd love to see it. Feel like if the Knight was a first party Nintendo character he'd feel like a lock right now.

Predictions:
Miriam - 2.31

Noms:
John Marston x10

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Behold, my one Bad Opinion.


Chance: 1% Hollow Knight is an absolute indie darling which has the typical issue a potential playable indie gets, funny we're getting another one tomorrow but eh. There's countless other Indies as competition and the possibility that Indies won't even get considered as characters. I also have a hunch about a Knight costume happening like everyone else because it sounds far too realistic. What could help is how Silksong's happening meaning Hollow Knight gets to go from a mere game to a franchise, though that evidently wasn't doing Shovel Knight or Sans any favours, so I ultimately only see it happening because it's not outright impossible and how it won't go against any design philosophies. Team Cherry may be a Western dev but I don't see how that would end up being an issue as Smash has shown that language barrier issues will be tackled head on as the end result is seen as worth it.

Want: 15% Hollow Knight is a very well designed game that deserves all it's praise. Buuuuut you probably noticed the title. And we have my bad opinion, that being that I didn't like my time with Hollow Knight. I found the design involving the map tedious, the game doing the Dark Souls thing but somehow more punishing and if your dead remains could attack you, though tbf your remains shouldn't kill you or even hurt you if you're decent, but the fact that it can happen sucks. The gloomy and depressing atmosphere really helps set the mood but it's also draining, especially as I found a lot of the enviroments samey. The **** ton of optional bosses and extremely nonlinear design lets players tell their own stories but it also makes you constantly get to dead ends and to learn that the boss you spent half an hour fighting was optional and won't give you anything due to the badge system or whatever it's called also being frustrating to me and many more made me just flatout drop the game after a good 14 hours after finding out how there's even MORE bull**** and that I barely scratched the surface. However, despite this, I cannot help but have the utmost respect for the game and despite how sour I am on it, an acknowledgement would be really cool.

Velvet Crowe x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Silksong never
Chance: 20%
While the Sans and Cuphead Mii Costumes have made a lot of people see the Knight as a lock in to be one of them as wel, I still see them as a solid sleeper contender. Hollow Knight, since its release in 2017, has established to be one of the most significant games in the Indie landscape and the most popular Metroidvania since Cave Story. It has sold milions of copies across all modern platforms, spawned merchandise, a big fanbase with even a Japanese following to boot and with a whole new full game coming... eventually, the momentum has not yet been lost. I'd say the timing is really on its side here, Volume 2 being finalised by the time the game had already proved itself to be a huge succes. I know most of what I said can apply to Undertale and Cuphead too and I won't deny the possibility of a Knight costume (tho I am kinda suprised it hasn't happened yet if that is what the Knight will be) but unless Sakurai or Nintendo specifically states "Characters from Indie developers will not join the battle as fighters" I will not write them off just yet, and Nintendo actually seems to be quite a fan of the game and Team Cherry. Showcasing the game at the 2018 E3 Treehouse as well as Silksong the year after that, listing Team Cherry as a Nintendo Switch partner, along bigger third parties, when they brought the Switch over to China and while the Treehouse attention could just be a NOA thing I do think the partner listing means Nintendo Japan is keeping an eye on it as well. While the Knight is certainly not the only possible indie candidate, Steve doesn't count btw, they are the one I have the most confidence in.

Want: 100%
What can I say? My most wanted third-party right here. HK is a fantastic game absolutely deserving of a full challenger pack. With how packed the game is there's so much potential for a Stage, Spirits and Music tracks. The Knight has one of those movesets that just feels written for Smash and their inclusion would probably convince me to play Ultimate more regularly. Would main them day one.

Miriam: 5.61%
Beat x10

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Gonna abstain since not much has changed for The Knight since his last rating. Most people seem to agree that a Deluxe Mii is likely and makes sense at this point, and we still have yet to see a playable indie. Team Cherry is definitely a darling for Nintendo, no doubt about that, but with Silksong's continued radio silence, The Knight as a promotional pick sounds unlikely.

Nominations:
Don-chan x5

Predictions:
Miriam - 3.43%

 

[DanganZilla5]

Which knight? Arthur? Nope. Black Knight? Nope. Just a knight.

Chance: 20%

He is from a critically acclaimed indie game that sold very well and is on Switch. It's considered one of the best indie games in recent years and Nintendo has given it the spotlight multiple times so it's clear Nintendo really likes the game. Not only that, but it has a sequel coming along the pipelines. If I remember correctly, I gave The Knight a very low score, something below 5 last time so what's changed? Honestly not much. I gave The Knight a big boost based on a gut feeling. I'm just feeling good about his chances. Plus I think I disregarded him just because he is indie, but he does have enough credentials to push himself into playable status. I think he is within the top 3 most likely indie characters alongside Quote and Reimu.

As for Steve, he did give me a little confidence boost in indie characters though there is a good chance that Nintendo didn't even think of Minecraft's indie origins when deciding Steve. Steve is complicated since you can consider him an indie rep or not, but either way at the very least I don't think he hurts the chances of other indie characters.

Still, with the way that things are going his likeliest scenario lies in a deluxe Mii costume.

Want: Abstain

Haven't played Hollow Knight. I might try it out someday but it's not a priority for me right now. It does look interesting though.

Prediction: Miriam - 10% (I wonder how people will feel about this since we already have Castlevania content, and a lot of it too)

Noms: Vectorman x10

 

[Lyncario]

The knight that isn't the Hollow Knight, just the Knight, not the character the game is named after, because yes, the Hollow Knight is someone else.

Chances: 8%

He has some merits to his inclusion in Smash. One of them is that the port of Hollow Knight to the Switch was a big sucess, especialy in Japan? Talking about sucess, HollowKnight got massive critical praise for it's gameplay, level design, soundtrack, atmosphere, story, and lore, which almost immediatly made it a classic of the modern gaming era, like BotW or the Witcher 3 execpt it's an indie Metroidvania. And he's also quite requested for Smash, as his game is poplar on the Switch and among Nintendo fans. And also, Nintendo has Team Cherry, the developers of Hollow Knight, as one of their important 3rd party developers in one of their conferences (I think that it was an E3), despite how their "only" game is Hollow Knight. However, there are also some things going against him, one of them being how recent he is, even if he is old enough so that he could have been taken for FP2, but it does make so that he has a very small legacy, especialy compared to other indies like Reimu or Quote. Another one is that seeing how indies like Sans and Cuphead got Mii'ed despite being older, also being requested, and also from more popular games, I don't see it being too likely for him.

Want: 80%

Hollow Knight is an amazing game that you need to play, and you probably already heard that. The movement is responsive and fun, the combat is challenging and very rewarding, the exploration is great, the suondtrack is beautifull, the level design is so inspired and open ended making so that eploration is just so fun, so many things about the game are just so outstanding. Purely a joy to play trough, even if it does become extremly hard towards the end, making so that it's not a game for everyone to finish, but everyone can experience it for at least a bit and have a great time. Furthermore, the Knight would be etremly fun in Smash with most of his abilities being able to translate very well into the game, making so that he could be a fast and combo-y character even if very light, making him a glass canon, which I find to be very fun to play, even if he would likely be annoying to fight.

Nominations

Boss rush x10
LoL rerate x10

Predictions

Miriam: 2.7%

 

[BowserKing]

Knight

Chance: 15%. Given the representation of Indie games recently, the Knight from Hollow Knight has a decent chance of showing up. With that said, the knight also has a chance of being a Mii Costume, as well as a spirit. But then again, surprises have been made.

Want: 55%. The Knight would be fun to play as, and I can see the Knight challenge Steve for a fight, while Shovel Knight is summoned in this fight. Overall, the Knight would make a decent Smash Bros Fighter.

Prediction: Miriam (5%)

Noms: 5 for Echo: Bowser

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Red pre-The Knight

Don-chan x160
Vectorman x160
T-Rex Runner x150
Carl Johnson x145
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x134
[Rerate] Monokuma x125

150 - 101

[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x119
D.Va x115
Crazy Dave x110
[Rerate] Arle Nadja x105
Qbby x105
Worms x105
Boss: Ender Dragon x103

100 - 51

[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x100
Cooking Mama x100
Zero (Mega Man) x95
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x93
Riptor x85
Boss: Rayquaza x85
John Marston x85
Stage: Bowser's Castle x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Fulgore x79
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: A 4X strategy rep x75
Giygas x71
Concept: Characters that don't have games on Nintendo platforms x60
Echo (Olimar) x56
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55
Ghirahim x55

50 - 25

Mii Costume: 2B x50
Velvet Crowe x50
Tetra x45
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x40
[Rerate] Neku x40
Echo (Bowser) x35
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x30
Ryza (Atelier) x25
Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x25

Under 25

Junpei (Zero Escape) x18
Yarn Yoshi x15
Billy & Jimmy Lee x15
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x15
Filia (Skullgirls) x11
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Estelle Bright x10
Mii Costume: Zagreus x10
Mii Costume: Madeline x10
[Rerate] Master Chief x10
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
Stage: Tetris x5
[Rerate] Agumon x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
[Rerate] Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x5

Vectorman ties with Don-chan for first place. Carl Johnson lands on the train that's headed straight to fourth place, passing Monokuma, Second F-Zero rep and Mii Costume: Monika and causing Boss Rush to fall off the top seven.

Qbby and Worms inch past 100 noms.

Concept: Characters that don't have games on Nintendo platforms has over 50 noms.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I've never played Hollow Knight.

Nominations: [Rerate] Monokuma x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Hollow Knight

Chance: 2%
This isn't the Knight's chance so much as it is my estimate of how confident I feel in my prediction. I don't think the Knight is getting anything more than a Mii Costume. It's a very young franchise, even if a successful one, and Nintendo's alignment with it hasn't exactly paid off with how long Silksong is taking to come out. There's several indies that could theoretically make it to fighter status but I simply don't see Hollow Knight being one when Shovel Knight, Undertale, and even Cuphead have it beat in all aspects. And indies are looking pretty bleak right now. Not because of Steve or anything, just, as bleak as usual I guess, but with the added pressure of less slots left.

Want: 10%
I haven't played Hollow Knight. It doesn't appeal to me, which isn't a knock on it because most indies don't. That 10% is because there's a lot of people that would be happy, and, cool for them. But unlike the likes of, say, Rayman or Shantae, where I'm only cool with the character because of the fans, with Hollow Knight I'm more reluctant because I'm not sure if it'll stand the test of time or if it will just end up being a cult hit. I'd like to wait a bit, see if Silksong ever comes out and how it does, maybe what Team Cherry does after that, because it comes to Smash. It's pretty often that games come out and are media darlings, before everyone forgets about them (looking at you Axiom Verge), and I'd rather avoid that with Smash inclusions which are supposed to be timeless.

Noms: Cooking Mama x10
Miriam prediction: 9.25%
Everyone please try to avoid spoilers! I've played Curse of the Moon (and loved it) and I already have Ritual of the Night, but I haven't gotten around to play it.

 

[Simnm]

Abstain
Rerate:masterchief(rerate)×5

 

[Blankiturayman]

Abstaining today as well; Haven't played Hollow Knight.

Noms: Worms x5

 

[Lionfranky]

Knight

Chance: 9%

While there hasn't been precedent for indie to be playable, that doesn't mean impossible. I believe Steve is exception... or should I say no longer indie. So there is barely any comparison at all. It's worth noting that Nintendo picked and mentioned the developers in their conference. So, there is special case to be made. It does prove that Nintendo may want to promote Hollow Knight, especially with upcoming sequel. Except indie status, Knight has everything going for him. Demand, popularity, sales, recognition from Nintendo, etc... I am not sure how he fares in Japan though. So, that's potential roadblock I guess?

Want: 80%

Knight would be one of more deserving candidates from indie rep. Although I haven't finished it yet, I don't think anyone can deny that Hollow Knight is one of the best platform in recent times. He has moveset potential although one could argue that he is just another swordman. His aesthetic is unique along with his stage. Due to sheer quality of his game, I would be pleased although he isn't in my most wanted list.

Nom: Characters that don't have their games on Nintendo platform x 10

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Everyone please try to avoid spoilers! I've played Curse of the Moon (and loved it) and I already have Ritual of the Night, but I haven't gotten around to play it.

I've already written my writeup but what would you consider spoilers? Stuff like sidequests, the name of a required item for Miriam's route, how she interacts with side characters, etc.