Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[PeridotGX]

Gardevoir:
Chance: 5%
Literally the only thing going for her is her pokeball hasn't been shown yet. Shes not even in the top 5 of the list for new pokemon in her own gen.
Want: 0%
Shes behind all 3 starters, Medacham, Breloom, and Hariyama. And that's only for pokemon in her region. She's probably in the 30's or so for overall pokemon I want in smash rankings

Reinhardt as a trophy:
Im abstaining from him, but is it bad that I thought this was referring to the one from Overwatch?

Nominations:
Silvally x3
Zeraora x2

I'm sorry, but what? Why do you think Medicham and Hariyama more likely than Gardevoir? Neither are that popular.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

You aren't alone.

Same here. I'd much rather see Overwatch Reinhardt than Fire Emblem Reinhardt as a fighter, though I'm fine with both being trophies. (I'm addicted to collecting them)

 

[colder_than_ice]

Gardevoir
Chance: 4% - With the exception of the Pokémon Trainer trio. Sakurai has only ever chosen Pokémon from the most recent generation. I’m also convinced at this point that Incineroar is most likely going to be our Pokémon rep. The series will likely not get a second newcomer due to the number of remaining characters left likely being very small and the series already having a whopping 9 veterans.
Want: 40% - I wouldn’t be against it. I’ve used Gardevoir in both Sapphire and X.

Reinhardt trophy
Chance: 25%?? - I don’t think it’s even been confirmed that we’re even getting generic trophies in Ultimate. Even if we are, I imangine Sakurai will once again recycle a lot of old 3D models to save time. Reinhardt’s only claim to fame is being a meme that originated in 2017, well over a year after Ultimate began production. Unless Sakurai himself is a fan of the meme in question, I find it hard to imagine he’d go out of his way to create this trophy.
Want: 10%

Nominations: Edelgard x5

 

[PapillonXtreme]

Gardevoir

Chance: 5%
I don't think Sakurai would go back from the older generation of Pokemon just for a newcomer. Even then, Gardevoir still faces competition with it's fellow Gen 3 Pokemon, Sceptile and Blaziken. It's definitely possible, but she's definitely low priority due to Gen 7 or Gen 8 being most likely to get in.

Want: 90%
Even though we already had a Psychic-type Pokemon as a playable character (Mewtwo), I wouldn't mind getting Gardevoir in Smash because it's one of my favorite Pokemon in Gen 3, alongside Sceptile.

Reinhardt Trophy

Chance: 20%
Seeing how Reinhardt is super popular in FEH, I can definitely see it happening. But I don't think he would go out of the way and made a 3D model of him just for a trophy, he would most likely use the ones from Warriors, in which he's not even a playable character. But who knows, we might see a trophy of him in Ultimate due to memes.

Want: 90%
I actually wouldn't mind a trophy of Reinhardt appearing in Smash, the more trophies, the merrier. Not to mention, he's one of the characters I commonly used in Tempest Trials and GHB/BHB/LHB alongside Brave Lyn.

Nominations:
Melemele Island Stage x5

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Also, let’s talk noms purge. At this point, we are reaching the tailene or speculation. I am open to a purge, but at this point mainly out of so many of these having a smaller shot at getting rated. This time I’ll leave it up to y’all. Let me know your position on that btvthe end of the month.

I'd be fine with a noms purge. There are a bunch of rerates that aren't really gaining any traction, and some of them that once received a bunch of votes months ago (Thwomp) that were probably as a joke (THWOMP) and still haven't had their rating and most definitely will not be getting in (THWOMP!!!). So yeah. I'm down for a nomination purge. Many characters who have lost a large chunk of their supporters have been found near the top of the list, such as Snip and Clip, Generation 2 Pokemon Trainer, Demille, Papyrus, and THWOMP. Many topical characters that have been receiving a lot of support recently, along the lines of Dovahkiin, Boss Sans, and Kyo Kusanagi have been trapped underneath a slew of obsolete nominations, and it will be a struggle to get them to the top and rated quickly enough (except for Dovahkiin, he's been making quick ground). There are also a bunch of somewhat similar nominations that could be grouped together into a general category that could be covered one day, just so that we can cover more topics in less time. I love the Pikmin series, don't get me wrong; 2 and 3 were fantastic. Took me ages to beat the final boss in Pikmin 3, and it was super satisfying when I did. But do we really need separate nominations for Louie and a Pikmin newcomer in general? Everybody besides Louie is more than likely going to be 0% for both. Why not have Pikmin just be the topic and we rate the chances and wants of Pikmin content of our choosing? Another thing: do we need a separate day for each of Kirby's Dream Friends? Why not make that a category and we vote and abstain as we please? Smash 5 is going to be upon us soon, and we have a whole lot of nominations to go through. Sure. We won't cover it all. But a lot of it deserves to be covered...

On a new tangent though. We are just over 2 months away from the release of Smash Ultimate, and there is more and more speculation and prediction in the community than ever before. We are all getting a good feel on who will be making the cut into the roster, and who won't. Many of these nominations will probably be double 0s, and I don't want to see that happening. One thing that I would REALLY like to see is just a day where we as a community all take the top ten of chance and want, and re-arrange them into our own list of chance and want. That way, every character will have an equal playing field with everybody rated on the same day, so no character is found to be more or less likely solely due to the time of rating. I don't like spending a whole day re-rating a character (which is why I'm not really looking forward to Phoenix Wright all that much) I would enjoy spending a whole day re-rating a whole chunk of characters, for I feel like that is a better use of time when it comes to re-rates. If this were to happen, I'd rather it happen sooner with 10-15 of the top contenders. After this next direct, there'll be maybe 2-3 newcomers tops. Everybody's chances will be down in general, so any time before the next direct would be the final opportunity before we can make accurate chance predictions. If the top 10 characters, say, are equally likely, and 20 more are only half of that, and those 30 characters were the ONLY ones in the running, each of the top ten have a 10% chance maximum to make it in.

I can't force anybody to do anything. I'm just advising we take a day off to do a long, general, re-rating of the Smash newcomer leaderboard to give the main few who actually have a likely shot a fair battleground at claiming the coveted "Most Likely" and "Most Wanted" spot. This was simply the preliminaries(?), getting ready for the final showdown that is the final release of the final roster of Smash.

As a very general list, I have compiled who I believe all have good shots at making it into the final roster. I am not against wild cards, just that these are very likely.

The list of who I'd consider should go on the final rating:
Dixie Kong
Bandanna Dee
Rex & Pyra
Elma
Impa
Geno
Shadow
Rayman
Banjo & Kazooie
Isaac
Dillon
Skull Kid
Crash Bandicoot
Chibi-Robo
Spyro
Octolings
Incineroar
Lloyd Irving
Ken
Lip

Yes, this is 20 characters. Yes, Lip and Dillon probably could have been taken off of this list. Yes, I didn't just read them in order. I excluded some that have lost significant popularity and have decreased in chances since the list was last updated, or those that were ranked high in once category and low in another. Yes, I added characters that weren't rated at the time that the list was last updated. Now cut 10, if you would like.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I'd be fine with a noms purge. There are a bunch of rerates that aren't really gaining any traction, and some of them that once received a bunch of votes months ago (Thwomp) that were probably as a joke (THWOMP) and still haven't had their rating and most definitely will not be getting in (THWOMP!!!). So yeah. I'm down for a nomination purge. Many characters who have lost a large chunk of their supporters have been found near the top of the list, such as Snip and Clip, Generation 2 Pokemon Trainer, Demille, Papyrus, and THWOMP. Many topical characters that have been receiving a lot of support recently, along the lines of Dovahkiin, Boss Sans, and Kyo Kusanagi have been trapped underneath a slew of obsolete nominations, and it will be a struggle to get them to the top and rated quickly enough (except for Dovahkiin, he's been making quick ground). There are also a bunch of somewhat similar nominations that could be grouped together into a general category that could be covered one day, just so that we can cover more topics in less time. I love the Pikmin series, don't get me wrong; 2 and 3 were fantastic. Took me ages to beat the final boss in Pikmin 3, and it was super satisfying when I did. But do we really need separate nominations for Louie and a Pikmin newcomer in general? Everybody besides Louie is more than likely going to be 0% for both. Why not have Pikmin just be the topic and we rate the chances and wants of Pikmin content of our choosing? Another thing: do we need a separate day for each of Kirby's Dream Friends? Why not make that a category and we vote and abstain as we please? Smash 5 is going to be upon us soon, and we have a whole lot of nominations to go through. Sure. We won't cover it all. But a lot of it deserves to be covered...

On a new tangent though. We are just over 2 months away from the release of Smash Ultimate, and there is more and more speculation and prediction in the community than ever before. We are all getting a good feel on who will be making the cut into the roster, and who won't. Many of these nominations will probably be double 0s, and I don't want to see that happening. One thing that I would REALLY like to see is just a day where we as a community all take the top ten of chance and want, and re-arrange them into our own list of chance and want. That way, every character will have an equal playing field with everybody rated on the same day, so no character is found to be more or less likely solely due to the time of rating. I don't like spending a whole day re-rating a character (which is why I'm not really looking forward to Phoenix Wright all that much) I would enjoy spending a whole day re-rating a whole chunk of characters, for I feel like that is a better use of time when it comes to re-rates. If this were to happen, I'd rather it happen sooner with 10-15 of the top contenders. After this next direct, there'll be maybe 2-3 newcomers tops. Everybody's chances will be down in general, so any time before the next direct would be the final opportunity before we can make accurate chance predictions. If the top 10 characters, say, are equally likely, and 20 more are only half of that, and those 30 characters were the ONLY ones in the running, each of the top ten have a 10% chance maximum to make it in.

I can't force anybody to do anything. I'm just advising we take a day off to do a long, general, re-rating of the Smash newcomer leaderboard to give the main few who actually have a likely shot a fair battleground at claiming the coveted "Most Likely" and "Most Wanted" spot. This was simply the preliminaries(?), getting ready for the final showdown that is the final release of the final roster of Smash.

As a very general list, I have compiled who I believe all have good shots at making it into the final roster. I am not against wild cards, just that these are very likely.

The list of who I'd consider should go on the final rating:
Dixie Kong
Bandanna Dee
Rex & Pyra
Elma
Impa
Geno
Shadow
Rayman
Banjo & Kazooie
Isaac
Dillon
Skull Kid
Crash Bandicoot
Chibi-Robo
Spyro
Octolings
Incineroar
Lloyd Irving
Ken
Lip

Yes, this is 20 characters. Yes, Lip and Dillon probably could have been taken off of this list. Yes, I didn't just read them in order. I excluded some that have lost significant popularity and have decreased in chances since the list was last updated, or those that were ranked high in once category and low in another. Yes, I added characters that weren't rated at the time that the list was last updated. Now cut 10, if you would like.

That’s not what a nominations purge is. A nominations purge means that after a specified date, all nominees under a certain threshold of nominations (think 30-ish) are erased. That does nothing for candidates like Thwomp or Linkle that were abandoned at the 200+ mark.

And I’d rather be rating characters that might not have a huge chance of making it in (if only to see the want scores), than to rerate the characters that have been seen as likely. All the characters on your list have already been rated, some of them rerated - multiple times even! I get rerating a character that was rated before E3, but it gets boring to see the same characters mentioned over and over again.

(Don’tcha be messing with Snip n Clip n Demille. I’ll be nominating them sooner or later.)

 

[Jomosensual]

What do you mean by a noms purge? Like cut all the noms that have no real chance?

 

[GoodGrief741]

What do you mean by a noms purge? Like cut all the noms that have no real chance?

Once in a while, in order to prevent nominees that got nowhere from cluttering up the nominations list, a purge is made. A date is set, and every character or concept that doesn’t reach a certain threshold by that date is erased.

It’s mostly done to delete, say, a character that somebody nominated twice and is just stuck on 10 nominations with nobody caring about them. I’ve seen nominations purges with bottoms of 50 nominations, never higher.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Gardevoir

2% Chance

Popularity is its saving grace. Unfortunately, Garde gets screwed by sceptilemwho had a noticeable ballot push and any gen 7 mon. Low key sceptilemos thenmost underrated character rn imo.

100% want

One of my faves. Honestly would be my fave gen 3 choice after deoxys but that’s not happening.

Reinhardt gets his trophy

15% Chance

If he did not need a model I would give him around a 55. But needing to make a fresh model may seem like a poor idea when existing models are easy to use.

Abstain Want

Nominating sora rerate x 5

 

[Sari]

Phoenix Wright

Chance: 3%

With Ryu, Mega Man, and Ken who is all but confirmed, Capcom has enough reps in Smash at the moment. Even with his incredibly strong history with Nintendo and being fairly well-known in the gaming community, I just can't see Phoenix making the cut.

Want: Abstain

My only experience with Phoenix Wright is playing as him in UMvC3. I always wanted to get into the series but never had the chance to (I plan to get the collection on Steam when that comes out). He seems interesting but since I know little about him I'll abstain.


Django chance prediction: 0.01%

Nominations: Kyo Kusanagi x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Lmao I didn’t know Gardevoir was so infamous for being lewded. I imagined she got lewded just as much as any other Pokémon, but I guess there must be something notorious hiding in the corners of the internet I don’t dwelve.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Gardevoir/Reinhardt gets a trophy pre-Phoenix Wright

Concept: Hanafuda Character x297
Rowlet x290
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x290
Concept: Disconfirmed Characters as DLC x256
Amaterasu x240
Ray (Custom Robo) x237
Linkle x227

Over 200

Thwomp x226
No More Stages x226

200 - 151

Fjorm (Fire Emblem) x200
Louie x195
Rick/Coo/Kine x194
Balloon Fighter x192
DeMille x188
Concept: Metroidvania-like Adventure Mode x187
Concept: More than five unique newcomers (excl. Ridley/Daisy/Inkling) x185
Papyrus x180
Tsubasa Oribe x160
Concept: All-Star Versus x158
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x155
Fire Emblem Three Houses Protagonist x155
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x151

150 - 101

Item: Beast Ball x150
Dovahkiin x150
Reimu Hakurei x150
Concept: Punch Out Newcomer x145
Barbara the Bat x132
Project Zero/Fatal Frame Protagonist x132
Stage: Poke Floats x130
2B x126
Guzma (Pokémon) x120
Klonoa x117
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x115
Concept: Pikmin Newcomer x115
Zeraora (Pokemon) x115
Edelgard x115
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x114
Susie Haltmann x114
Gooey x110
Raiden (Metal Gear) x110
Daroach x102
Tora & Poppi x102

100 - 51

Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x96
Viewtiful Joe x95
Concept: Only 4-6 newcomers for base roster x90
Black Knight as a boss character x90
Silvally x84
Chorus Kids x77
Yu Narakumi x76
Frank West x75
Veronica x73
9-Volt x68
Item: Breidablik x65
Toon Zelda x65
Kyo Kusanagi x65
Endou Mamoru x62
Concept: Historical Character x60
Slime x58
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Character x56
Leo (Fire Emblem) x55
Sans as a boss character x55
Concept: Wars Characters x53
Xurkitree (Pokémon) x53
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x51

50 - 25

Rhythm Girl x50
[Rerate] Spyro x45
Donbe and Hikari (Shin Onigashima) x44
Concept: Unique newcomer with low support (less than 20 supporters on Smashboards) x40
Concept: Xenoblade newcomer x40
Earthworm Jim x39
Adeleine x39
Stage: Ultra Space x35
Assist Trophy: Chun-Li x35
Concept: Cross series Echoes x35
The Prince (Katamari) x35
Box Theory x29
Dixie Kong & Kiddy Kong x25
Blacephalon (Pokemon) x25
Master Chief x25
Concept: DLC character pass x25
Stage: Melemele Island x25

Under 25

Concept: Break the Targets & Board the Platforms stage builder x20
[Rerate] Concept: Zelda newcomer x20
Sub-Zero x17
Concept: Modern Kirby Stage (Post Kirby Air Ride) x15
Concept: Custom Moves return x15
Concept: Custom Alternate Colors x15
Alexandra Roivas x15
Kat & Ana x15
[Rerate] Cranky Kong x15
Big Boss x15
[Rerate] Steve? x15
Joker (Persona) x13
Saki Amamiya x12
Ryuhi (Flying Dragon) x10
Metal Sonic x10
Dr. Lobe (Big Brain Academy) x10
Cross (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x10
Break the Targets x10
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x10
Concept: Dragon Quest content x10
[Rerate] Sora x10
Volleyball Girl (NES Volleyball) x8
Concept: Stage Builder x8
[Rerate] Excitebiker x6
Zeke (Xenoblade 2) x6
Quote x6
Stage: Gyromite Stage x5
Nia (Hyrule Warriors) x5
Concept: Valve Newcomer x5
Concept: SR388 Stage x5
Concept: Playable Indie Character x5
Blaze the Cat x5
Alm x5
[Rerate] Octoling x5
[Rerate] Gengar x5
Yandere Chan (Yandere Simulator) x5
Concept: Team Rocket as a Pokémon Trainer Echo x5
Cooking Mama x5
Playable Master Hand x5
Pam (Stardew Valley) x5
Captain Syrup x5
Concept: Return of Palutena’s Guidance/Codec Calls x5
Concept: Free DLC characters x5
Jin (Xenoblade) x5
Concept: Assist Trophy DLC x5
[Rerate] Black Shadow x5
Doshin the Giant x5
Stage: Mute City Melee x5
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x5
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x5
Bartz Klauser x5
Blog Theory x5
King Hippo x4
[Rerate] Ayumi Tachibana x4
Concept: New Yoshi item x4
Black Mage x4
Stanley the Bugman x3
Concept: WarioWare newcomer x2
Concept: F-Zero newcomer x2
Diskun x1
Item: Wumpa Fruit x1
Birdo x1
Concept: Any Minecraft representation x1

Amaterasu passes Ray and takes fifth place.

Sans as a boss character dodges past 50 nominations.

Box Theory and Melemele Island pass 25 noms.

Our new concept is any Minecraft representation. One nomination.

 

[Flyboy]

Phoenix Wright

Chance: 40%
I've never been very good with numbers, so don't look too deeply into this, but at the same time I can't see him being base. DLC, possibly. As much as I want to believe he's popular enough and iconic enough, I don't think he's really on a lot of minds right now. That said, according to a whole bunch of fanpolls I've seen, he consistently places high. Fanpolls aren't the ballot, but maybe, just maybe it's indicative of how he performed on that. I can hope.

Want: 100%+
My absolute number one want, somehow displacing even Travis Touchdown. Phoenix Wright was, to me, the face of the Nintendo DS. His games were always an event when they finally hit America, and he was always with the rest of the Nintendo All Stars in the merchandising and ads. I remember when Official Nintendo Magazine UK released a whole set of Nintendo magnets and Phoenix was one of, if not THE only non-first-party Nintendo magnets. I still have it, too. The DS has, like, no reps right now. Lucario, okay, and maybe, like, Pictochat? So we need more DS representation! Why not a deserving third-party?

More than that, Phoenix's games give him a huge moveset pool to draw from. He doesn't have to play like he does in UMVC3. There are so many more games than just the original trilogy to draw from here. He'd be an unconventional, comedic fighter that is able to corner and overwhelm an opponent and turn things around at a moment's notice - just like in the games. He has a veritable gallery of assistants and fellow lawyers that could help him out, ranging from his colleagues that work under him at his law office to his magician daughter, and each of them could further add to his moveset in unconventional ways.

Phoenix would add more color and uniqueness to the Smash roster, would represent an underrepresented handheld, and would bring a TON of incredible music with him to boot. I'm kind of exhausted at the moment so I won't be going into moveset detail or explaining every little piece and facet of how I see him playing in Smash but rest assured he deserves it. He's been on four, soon-to-be five Nintendo consoles! C'mon! Also, he needs an Edgeworth echo fighter! But I've said all that in the thread already.

Anyway, yeah, Phoenix for Smash.

 

[Handy Man]

Phoenix Wright

Chance: 10%

Phoenix's support has not been as loud as other third party characters, like Geno, Banjo, Rayman, and Sora. As a result, Phoenix may not be seen as a high priority character choice. Plus, Mega Man and Ryu are already in the game, with Ken being likely as an echo fighter as well. I do not think that Phoenix Wright will be included in the base game of Ultimate.

With that said, awareness of his existance with the trilogy re-release next year will definitely help in gathering support for Phoenix. A new installment for the Ace Attorney series may also be announced next year, since the last game, Spirit of Justice, released in 2016. The game before that, Duel Destinies, released in 2013. A three year development cycle for a new Ace Attorney game seems pretty reasonable, and if we are getting Ace Attorney 7 next year along with the original trilogy, then 2019 could end up as an important year for Phoenix Wright.

Like I said, I don't think he is in Ultimate, but I can see a glimmer of hope of him being added as a DLC fighter. I know I would buy him for sure, hopefully he gets added after a potential resurgance next year.

Want: 100%

The Ace Attorney games are among my favorites of all time. With great stories, fun characters, fantastic music, and gameplay that rewards critical thinking and reading comprehension, the Ace Attorney games are some of the best visual novel games out there. The novelty of a lawyer fighter is also too good to pass up, and Ultimate Marvel vs. Capcom 3 has demonstrated how Phoenix's playstyle could potentially be handled. Phoenix also has two viable choices in echo fighters; it could be his childhood friend and long time rival Miles Edgeworth, or his future successor and co-worker Apollo Justice.

With Phoenix's games being very high quality, along with his long standing history with Nintendo systems, Phoenix would truly be a unique and quirky character addition to Smash. No objections here.

For further reading, I wrote an article for Source Gaming a while back that discusses why Phoenix should or should not be in Smash.


Nominations: Tetris stage x5

 

[Artix]

Phoenix Wright

Chance: 5%
I am still iffy about Capcom getting a third non-Echo representative. Even if we do get a third character, it's most likely going to be Ken due to recent leaks. I think that's more than enough representation for Capcom in the base roster. Maybe we can see him getting in through DLC, if not, then maybe in the next Smash game.

Want: 80%
I have played some of the Ace Attorney games and they were actually pretty fun to play. He could be an interesting character in Smash and I wouldn't mind him getting in over his fellow Visual Novel character, Saber, but it would be nice to have both of them.

Nominations:
Kyo Kusanagi x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Alright, finally this day happened!

The Ace Attorney (sorry Pollo)

Chance: 17% base, 50% DLC
I don’t think we’ll get more third parties in the base roster, bar Geno. If we do though, this guy should be watched. An iconic third party character whose games have consistently been Nintendo-exclusive? How many of those do you know? Yes, I know his games have been on mobile, and last week Capcom announced they’re releasing the original trilogy on PS4 and PC (don’t remember if Xbox as well). Still, that’s an impressive track record.

The series is also still incredibly relevant. Ace Attorney 5 was released in 2013, the crossover with Professor Layton in 2014, a spin-off in 2015, Ace Attorney 6 in 2016, and a sequel to the spin-off in 2017. Before Capcom got their **** together and decided they have IPs worth a damn (Resident Evil VII, Mega Man 11, Devil May Cry V), they were basically kept afloat by Monster Hunter and Ace Attorney.

Phoenix Wright consistently places well on fanpolls, so I can’t imagine him doing poorly in then ballot (I think he might have performed better than allegedly stronger candidates like Rayman, Shantae and Shovel Knight due to his worldwide appeal).

And if it’s moveset potential you’re looking for, this guy‘s got it. If you wanna go boring, he investigates crimes, so you can just have him use evidence as weapons. You could also go for his Ultimate Marvel vs. Capcom 3 moveset if you wanna go gimmicky. But there’s so much more beyond that. Getting assisted by sidekicks, trapping people in chains with a Magatama, just being a hobo, there’s so many ways you could go with a moveset for him. Plus Apollo or Edgeworth could be easy Echoes, which is a plus.

So, while there might not be room for him in base, for DLC it’s more of a question of ‘why not?’

Want: 100%
My most wanted third party character. Nobody comes even close. The Ace Attorney games are truly something special, and Phoenix has so much personality that would show in Smash. I’m all for iconic third party characters, and we’ve got one here. Plus more DS representation, plus visual novel representation, plus a unique moveset.

Nominations: Saki AmamiyaX5

 

[Sonsa]

Phoenix Wright!

Chance: Base 5% DLC 60%
Ultimate seems to be mostly about the ballot, as it should be! I don't think Phoenix did bad, I think he probably got around upper-middle? But there's some other very important ballot-winning characters in the way is all. I've been waiting a long time for Phoenix, but so have plenty of people for characters like Geno and Isaac who I think did great on the ballot! So for the base roster...ahh, no way... Not enough time, not enough priority...

Not sure there would be enough time for DLC either... Might even be presumptuous to assume DLC anyway! I know it should be a given, but... who knows! Still, I feel before Phoenix seems ~likely~ we would have to have Geno, Skull Kid, Bandana Dee, and Isaac first. After thaaat...I could see him beating characters like Paper Mario and maybe even Banjo Kazooie? Maybe. I fully expect Banjo before Phoenix, but still, maybe, who knows. We know Capcom is cooperative, and for all we know the people around Banjo's inclusion might disagree, change their minds, it's just...unclear for now! Anyway, Phoenix has a lot going for him, so I gave him a bit of an edge in the DLC percentage!

Want: 100%
Ace Attorney is my favorite series, and Smash is an amazing runner-up. Smash has such a heartwarming feeling of family, but Ace Attorney, for whatever reason, just feels like...home? Not tryna be cheesy or anything, just explaining that wow... any Ace Attorney trophies, any of their amazing music, even Wright as an assist trophy would all be very appreciated, and with Monster Hunter getting some attention without a fighter, maybe Ace Attorney can get some too? I know Monster Hunter is crazy popular but...Ace Attorney seems to have a successful anime, movie, plays/musicals, pachinko, manga, and oh, games!!

I think it's big enough of a deal! And as plenty have said already, lots of connection to Nintendo! And if Phoenix could be a fighter with Edgeworth as an echo (since, the moveset I imagine would work for him as well - including Magatama which he has used, he's like the #1 most popular character in the series according to some official poll, he's got his own spin-offs and he's a kinda famous rival, right?) umm... well that'd just be a miracle haha

Of course I want characters like Geno and the others listed, but that's just cause I want the majority of people to be happy! But if I could be selfish and ask for who I personally want... it's really just Phoenix Wright. And hey, seems his only problem is a lack in popularity, but maybe with a little more time, and popular character confirmations, this underdog will make a turnabout! That lovable dork hero, bringing creativity and charm, a balance of comedy and drama like his series, great music, hopefully a dair spike where he points you straight down, the bombed courtroom stage, and just really so much fun and love, I've rambled too much, but yeah, he's really all I've wanted all this time.

Edit: Oh! And just a lil fun fact I guess - it wouldn't be the first time Phoenix has been able to hang out with Chrom and Lucina haha (Project X Zone 2!)

Nomination: Danganronpa music? I know I'd love some haha
And uhh, if I did this wrong then hey just uhh "Tetris Stage" x5 I guess!

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Phoenix Wright:
Chance: 20%
Ace Attorney is a series that has a number of close ties to Nintendo. Pretty much all of the games have been on a Nintendo platform, and Phoenix is easily the series' mascot at this point. He's appeared in several crossovers for Ace Attorney - Professor Layton Vs Phoenix Wright and Ultimate Marvel Vs Capcom 3. And if there's any concerns about his fighting potential, just look at MVC3 if you need evidence he can be a fighter.

However, I imagine that there's quite a bit of competition when it comes to new third-parties, especially from Capcom themselves boasting other IPs with a fair shot of making it to Smash like Monster Hunter. We've also already got Mega Man and Ryu - two of Capcom's biggest IPs already represented, so compared to those sales juggernauts, Ace Attorney is a bit more niche in that regards. At this point, it's unlikely he'd make it into the base roster, but I guess it could be more likely to expect him if he were to be a DLC character.

Want: 100%
If we see Phoenix Wright in Smash Bros, I will freak out as much as I did when Cloud was revealed. He's easily my most wanted third-party character since I absolutely adore the Ace Attorney games. He was also my main back in UMVC3 and I absolutely loved playing as him in that game.

Plus, who wouldn't want to fight to this amazing theme and attack people with giant "OBJECTION!!" speech bubbles in Smash Bros?

 

[KirbyMonadoBoy]

Phoenix Wright

Chance: 55%
Phoenix Wright has appeared on so many Nintendo consoles - GBA, DS, 3DS, Wii & Switch, he has a long history with Nintendo. For a long time, Phoenix Wright was exclusively on Nintendo devices, only recently they began to port the games also to other devices (starting with the Smartphone). The Visual Novel genre is not represented in Smash and he would be the perfect candidate. In 2016 Sakurai met with Ace Attorney creator Shu Takumi, however nobody knows what they were discussing. Maybe they were talking about Phoenix in Smash? Furthermore the "Spirit-Mode" would fit perfectly with the Spirit-theme of the Ace Attorney games (Spirit Channeling, "Spirit of Justice", Magatama,...). And lastly, Phoenix Wright fans have demanded him since many years and I think Sakurai recognized that many fans want this fighter. His moveset could be very unique and with his quirkiness he would be a very welcome addition to the roster. I think his chances are higher than many people think.

Want: 100%
Phoenix is easily my most wanted character for Smash Bros. I am a huge Ace Attorney fan, his games are so great. I have all 6 main games on my 3DS + the Layton Crossover and all of them are so recommendable. If you haven't played the games, TRY THEM OUT!! (There is a free demo of Dual Destinies on the 3DS Nintendo Eshop). The story is so immersive, the character interactions are great, the plot-twists are superb and Phoenix himself is so damn funny. Furthermore the music is god-like - the thrilling Pursuit- and Announce the Truth- Themes would fit perfectly to Smash. If he gets in, I want either Edgeworth, Apollo or Athena as an Echo fighter.

 

[NintenRob]

Abstain today.

Nominate no more stages x5

 

[StormC]

Chance: 10%
Want: 20%

It seems like he did okay on the ballot, not great, but probably better than any other Capcom character, and has precedent with Marvel. However, Phoenix Wright really doesn't fit Sakurai's MO of adding third party series, as it has neither the massive success or long history of the other ones in the game barring you-know-who. He's more in the niche side of things outside of cult internet phenomenon and I'm sure other third party characters would be higher priority. So while the chance exists, even as DLC, I don't foresee it happening any time soon, and Capcom probably wouldn't push for it either.

While I do really enjoy the Ace Attorney series (mainly the original trilogy), I have little interest in Phoenix as a Smash fighter. Marvel, sure, but for a platformer fighter, I'd like to see other types of characters, and most of the moveset ideas I see are fairly uninspired. I wouldn't be furious if Nick made the cut, but there are other Capcom characters and third party characters in general I'd rather see before him.

 

[Deleted member]

Abstaining on Phoenix Wright.


Noms:
Metroidvania-like adventure mode x5

 

[RealPokeFan11]

OBJECTION!
Chance: 10%
Want: Abstain

I don't know much about Phoenix Wright or his games other than the fact that it revolves around court cases. I could see him being kind of a joke character similar to Marvel vs Capcom's version of him. I don't think he's going to make it into the base roster though.

Nominations: Xurkitree x5

 

[smileMasky]

Mr. Lawyer man

Chance: 35%
Though he may be popular we got a lot of 3rd parties as it is. UMvC3 did a good job at making a good move set for him. I really don't see capcom getting him next.

Want: 70%
He was fun to play as in MvC.

Nomination: Bob&Bub (Bubble Bobble) x5

did we already do Django? I just don't want to miss rating him.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Wow, don't have much to say, so I went back to just quote from before...

Jean Grey
...wait, wrong Phoenix

Chance: 5%
Want: 0%

See Layton. I’m tired, and everyone pretty much said everything important.

Prediction for Robotnik: 19.2%
Nom: Mewtwo x5

...ah.

Well: non-fighter, so would need a lot of creativity; too much Capcom, this isn’t NvC Infinite; there are bigger names in the detective-lawyer-puzzle genre, including some Ninty first parties; there’s not enough hair gel in the world for both him and Cloud in the same game; etc.

Not overly interested. Rating from before stands.

Nom: Dovahkiin x5

 

[skylanders fan]

Phoenix Wright
chance
Won't be in the base roster for sure. WIth a limited roster and only two 3rd party newcomers so far I think he won't make it over other bigger 3rd party charcters but I can see adding him with DLC.
10%

Want
I like his moveset in MvC. But don't really care for him besides that
40%

nominaing
rick coo and kine x3
Thwomp x2

 

[Mogisthelioma]

Phoenix Wright: Chance -10% Want: 10%

I think he'd be a little funny but honestly they could do better. There's no way he's in.

 

[BluePikmin11]

As close as Phoenix Wright may be to Nintendo and how notably voted he was in the ballot, I cannot see him happening. I think Sakurai is going to add the remaining big Japanese third-party icons, and one of those icons come from Capcom's Resident Evil, which is the company's biggest selling franchise worldwide. Even in the case of DLC, he would still be outmatched by Monster Hunter (Which has become a global smash hit as of World) and Dante from Devil May Cry. At best I can see him becoming an Assist Trophy like Bomberman (Whose franchise that has sold far less than Castlevania, Frogger, Metal Gear Solid, and even the Yu-Gi-Oh video games). I do not think he has any real chance personally, there are bigger Capcom icons that will trump him easily.

--------

x5 Hanafuda character

 

[Tew]

Phoenix Wright:

Chance: 5%
Pros:
He is one of the few third-party characters left with mostly Nintendo exclusive games, still relevant and a decent fanbase. He could also bring something unique to the table with an interesting moveset (e.g. Marvel vs Capcom 3). Though personally I think we will see Ken and maybe Geno as third-party Newcomers in the base roster. But for DLC he definitely has a shot.
Cons: By now there are probably not that many Spots left and even less for third party characters. Furthermore, from all third-party franchises I think Phoenix has the hardest competition. There are already 2 characters from Capcom, with Ryu and Mega man. And I think Ken is currently the most likely Newcomer. Which would already add up to 3 characters from Capcom, I don´t see them adding even more. But even if they would, let´s not forget characters like Dante, Monster Hunter…Hunter, Amaterasu and Morrigan, who all have pretty much equal chances if not higher than Phoenix in my opinion.

Want: 35%
I haven´t really played any Ace Attorney game so far, only a small portion once and that was alright. I´d be mostly interested in the moveset Sakurai gives him. But if we get another Capcom rep (besides the highly likely Ken of course), I would prefer a Monster Hunter rep or Amaterasu.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________



Nomination:
Fjorm: 5x
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

[Kotor]

Phoenix Wright
Chance: 25%
Want: 90%

I think Phoenix would be a fun addition. Capcom own a bunch of franchises why impose an artificial limit to what a company can have in Smash? Street Fighter's potentially double dipping so why not add another franchise from Capcom? The idea of Phoenix going around accusing Nintendo heroes of committing crimes and presenting random items as evidence just amuses me. I'm curious if the Breakdown segment after the killer is caught in the games could be implemented to Ultimate's theme of final smashes being "straight to the punch." Phoenix Wright and Sora are pretty much the next third party characters I like to see added to Smash.

Black Knight as a boss character x5

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

That’s not what a nominations purge is. A nominations purge means that after a specified date, all nominees under a certain threshold of nominations (think 30-ish) are erased. That does nothing for candidates like Thwomp or Linkle that were abandoned at the 200+ mark

Okay, I gotcha now. However, lets take the newcomer of [Concept]: Any Minecraft representation for example. That was literally just added; would the noms purge include the very newly added nominations? I can see what you mean be clearing out the 30> nominations, but what about those that have been recently added to the list? Will they get cleared too without giving them enough time to get over 30? If that is the case and the new ones like Saki Amamiya get cleared before reaching the threshold, then I'm against a nom purge. I am for a nom purge for ideas that haven't received any votes in over a month.

Gardevoir
Chance 25% She has been popular enough to get a leak with her in it, and, even if it’s fake, you either have to be popular, obscure, retro, or a mix between the last two to be in a good leak.

Want 50% I don’t know enough about Gardevoir to feel like I can correctly rate her.

I really don’t care much about trophies. Even though I love to collect them, I don’t really care who gets in as a trophy.So I won’t rate a trophy.

Nominations:
Stanley the bugman x5

Did you include these nominations?

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Wright
Chance: 5%
Decent popularity but I don't think Ace Attorney is succesfull enough of a series to be the third Capcom franchise to be represented. That title would go to RE imo. And that's ignoring all the other potential third party characters he competes with.
Moveset might be a problem. Point to MvCIII all you want but they're not the same games. I can't imagine Phoenix sneezing and making a girl trip in his moveset.

Want: Abstain

The Prince x5

 

[Mrs.Milky]

I like how mostly everyone here seems to want/ be OK with phoenix joining the roster.

 

[Jomosensual]

Don't really have much to offer on Phoenix Wright, so abstaining today

Nominations:
Joker - x3
Blog theory x2

 

[Fire Tactician]

Phoenix Wright

Chance: 5%

He's popular and he does have Nintendo history, but I can't help but think that other 3rd parties have precedence over him.

Want: 10%

I don't doubt he'd be fun to use, but I have no attachment.

 

[Opossum]

Abstaining from chance, but I'll give Phoenix Wright a 100% in Want. Fun character, Smash needs more lawyers, and has a ton of Nitendo history. Plus he'd be our first Visual Novel character. Plus he has Stahl's VA.

Merric x5

 

[Erureido]

Phoenix Wright

Chance: 15% --> 15%

Copy and pasting what I said last time because most of it holds true:

He's up there for one of the most iconic gaming reps in the visual novel/brain teaser genre alongside Layton, and his games have a strong relationship with Nintendo as well. He even has a pretty solid support-base when it comes to Smash, but seeing how Capcom already has two far more iconic reps in Smash in the form of Megaman and Ryu... I don't know if they'd be willing to go for a third. There is still a possibility, but then there's also the issue that Phoenix Wright has to compete with other iconic Capcom stars like Monster Hunter or someone from Resident Evil.

Well, if there's one change I'd like to make from last time, it's that we can now throw the whole "only 2 reps per third party company" out of the window since Konami now has three 3 reps through Snake, Simon, and Richter. Thus, the door is open for Capcom to have three reps as well.

However, Phoenix Wright still has to compete with other more prominent Capcom reps if he wants to get that third slot. Ken is already looking to be a near guaranteed lock with all the rumors and Ryu Echo potential surrounding him. You also have Monster Hunter and Resident Evil being far bigger and more iconic franchises to Capcom's history, so I'd say even they are major competitors to this famous lawyer. Still, Phoenix is more requested compared to reps from those franchises, and he does have that history with Nintendo, so it's possible, but I still think the chance score I gave him hasn't changed from last time, especially with the limited newcomers space left.

Want: 0% --> 0%

Copy and pasting what I said last time:

Phoenix Wright is a cool character and all, and he has an interesting moveset in UMvC3. Those two things aside, I don't have any interest in seeing this lawyer in Smash.

To add to that, if there's one puzzle game/visual novel rep that I'd like to see in Smash, Professor Layton is my top priority.

Now, the possibility of having Phoenix Wright and Professor Layton as playable fighters in Smash would be very cool, but with the amount of newcomers looking to be very limited for what's left in the base roster and the possibility the amount of DLC fighters will probably be small too... yeah, I've got the "there can only be one" for this one.

------

Nominations

Susie (Kirby): x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Okay, I gotcha now. However, lets take the newcomer of [Concept]: Any Minecraft representation for example. That was literally just added; would the noms purge include the very newly added nominations? I can see what you mean be clearing out the 30> nominations, but what about those that have been recently added to the list? Will they get cleared too without giving them enough time to get over 30? If that is the case and the new ones like Saki Amamiya get cleared before reaching the threshold, then I'm against a nom purge. I am for a nom purge for ideas that haven't received any votes in over a month.



Did you include these nominations?

If there were a nominations purge, it doesn’t matter whether the nominations are from two months or two days ago, if they don’t reach the threshold they’re done.

Those nominations were not counted, that post does not have nearly enough reasoning.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Phoenix Wright want: 0%

His moveset potential sucks. I thought he looked stupid with his giant phantom finger in PSA.

Nominations:

FE Spear User x5

 

[Icedragonadam]

Phoenix Wright

Chance: 5%
Want: 20%

There are other Capcom characters more likely to make it. Monster Hunter, Dante, Leon or Chris for starters.

Nominate Concept: Yoshi's Crafted World Stage x5

 

[SupriceSupplies]

Phoenix Wright:
Chance: 1%
Want: 95%

I feel like, if Capcom's going to get a third unique character, it's going to be Monster Hunter or him. That being said, when it comes to the base roster, I feel like Square, Ubisoft, and Namco all got greater shots of getting a character in the base roster (and I'm still remaining with my 1 unique third party character left prediction). I don't feel very confident in his chances for DLC, either, but I'm not writing him off for that. But when it comes to the base roster... I can dream.

...But hell. Do I bloody WANT HIM. He's tied with Rayman as my most wanted third party character. If he can work in a traditional fighter, he'd probably be able to work in Smash, too. I also love his series to death and adding him would only add to the ridiculously ridiculous ridiculousness factor that's in Smash already. Yes, I do in fact want to beat up a Space Pirate Dragon as an everyday lawyer.