Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Nemuresu]

Phoenix Wright:
Chance: 5%- I know he's quite popular. However, I insist when I say that at least the Monster Hunter series is far more popular, and that is one thing I keep in mind when it comes to guest characters: fame first, fan requests second. I know that Cloud, Bayonetta and Simon were chosen because of requests, but that's still three characters vs the four that made it because of fame.
Want: 1%- I'll take other Capcom characters over him with all due honesty. Monster Hunter, Dante, Leon and even more Street Fighter characters would be better. Wasn't a fan of him in UMvC3 either, so no interest on moveset as well.
Nominations: DLC character pass x5

 

[P.Kat]

Phoenix Wright

Abstaining

Nomination - Amaterasu x5

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Those nominations were not counted, that post does not have nearly enough reasoning.

wElL i MeAn TeChNiCaLlY iT hAd MoRe ThAn 2 SeNtEnCeS

But you're right, I see what you mean... ah well.

All in all, if what you're saying is the case, then I'd rather not have a nomination purge...

Phoenix Wright

Abstaining

Nomination - Amaterasu x5

For reference though GoodGrief741 , would these count if I were to abstain for the day?

 

[NintenRob]

Question, do you still get nominations if you abstain

 

[GoodGrief741]

wElL i MeAn TeChNiCaLlY iT hAd MoRe ThAn 2 SeNtEnCeS

But you're right, I see what you mean... ah well.

All in all, if what you're saying is the case, then I'd rather not have a nomination purge...



For reference though GoodGrief741 , would these count if I were to abstain for the day?

Actually, the rule is two sentences per score, not per character.

Question, do you still get nominations if you abstain

You still get nominations if you abstain, there’s no penalty for that.

 

[PapillonXtreme]

Phoenix Wright

Chance: 10%
Out of all the VN characters we could get in Smash, Phoenix Wright is more likely due to the fact that all of his games are Nintendo-exclusive. He did well in the ballot, but I don't think it's enough to warrant a spot in Smash, especially how limited the roster is. There's also this recent rumor that Ken might be the third Capcom character to be included Smash, so that also hurts him in the long run. He definitely doesn't have a chance in the base roster, but maybe he'll come in as DLC.

Want: 5%
Sure, Phoenix Wright may be an interesting character to have in Smash, but if I really want a visual novel character in Smash, either Professor Layton or Saber would be my top priority, even if the latter is unlikely. Besides, I haven't played any of his games and I still think he wouldn't fit in Smash.

Nominations:
Melemele Island Stage x5

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

I really don’t care much about trophies. Even though I love to collect them, I don’t really care who gets in as a trophy.So I won’t rate a trophy.

Nominations:
Stanley the bugman x5

I mean, he did technically abstain for the trophy. That's what I was getting at. Sorry if I am looking rather petty because of this, I just was hoping that I could at least save Stanley if the nomination purge came through...

PHOENIX WRIGHT

The day has come for our ace attorney to receive his re-rating. Phoenix has a chance, I guess. Ace Attorney has been pretty popular in the past, and he has received a fair amount of ballot support. He was in Marvel vs. Capcom, so he isn't entirely new to the fighting genre. All in all, he isn't out of the question to be a new fighter, and I'm sure Nintendo could make him work if they really wanted to...

Chance: 20%

A new character is a new character, and I'd be perfectly fine if he found his way into the gam--OBJECTION!--sorry, I just wanted to say that. In all honesty though, he falls into the same boat as Professor Layton in my book: he just wouldn't be that exciting to me to play as. I really don't think we need a defense attorney in the game, and he doesn't have that great of a design (besides a pretty spot-on haircut). I'm not too interested, that's all...

Want: 7.5%

My effort into these have really declined recently. I've just been trying to get them in some time down the day.

Nominations: Quote x5. I realized that I really have to start committing to a character at some point.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I mean, he did technically abstain for the trophy. That's what I was getting at. Sorry if I am looking rather petty because of this, I just was hoping that I could at least save Stanley if the nomination purge came through...

PHOENIX WRIGHT

The day has come for our ace attorney to receive his re-rating. Phoenix has a chance, I guess. Ace Attorney has been pretty popular in the past, and he has received a fair amount of ballot support. He was in Marvel vs. Capcom, so he isn't entirely new to the fighting genre. All in all, he isn't out of the question to be a new fighter, and I'm sure Nintendo could make him work if they really wanted to...

Chance: 20%

A new character is a new character, and I'd be perfectly fine if he found his way into the gam--OBJECTION!--sorry, I just wanted to say that. In all honesty though, he falls into the same boat as Professor Layton in my book: he just wouldn't be that exciting to me to play as. I really don't think we need a defense attorney in the game, and he doesn't have that great of a design (besides a pretty spot-on haircut). I'm not too interested, that's all...

Want: 7.5%

My effort into these have really declined recently. I've just been trying to get them in some time down the day.

Nominations: Quote x5. I realized that I really have to start committing to a character at some point.

I totally understand and I never mind insistence, it helps clear things up and correct me if I made a mistake. On that post, you can see that there’s just one sentence for chance and one sentence for want. Per the rules, it has to be two each (although if one of the scores has a whole essay written for it of course I’ll overlook if the other is lacking).

 

[Sid-cada]

Phoenix Wright

Chance - 2.5% - This feels a bit too out there. Most of the guests we have are at least shown to have significant fighting skill, but Phoenix doesn't. While it could be done, as MvC can prove, we don't know if Sakurai will go for an unconventional third party. He's famous enought to get in, but atmiditly he feels perfict for an Assist Trophy.

Want - 60% - I have no grate desire to see him in, but I can respect his inclution. He might be interesting see him adapted, but that's about it.


Nominatinos

Reimu Hakurei X5

 

[AirMac1]

Phoenix Wright

Chance 40% Phoenix did pretty well on the ballot, and since Sakurai is using the ballot as a source, it would make a lot of sense for Phoenix to make it in. But he does have some things that hurt his score. First up, he is a Capcom rep, and if Nintendo was too give Capcom another character, even if we didn’t count ken as an echo of ryu, we would still have Chun-li, Bass, Protoman, and Arthur, just to name a few. Also, Professor Layton could of been the more supported member of the visual novel genre.

Want 80% I may of never played any of his games, but he would be very unique. And, the more unexpected newcomers, the better is what I always say! (I wish).

Nominations:Conker x5

 

[MajoraMoon]

Chance 10% sure, he is popular enough. BUT! He is just a lawyer. What is he gonna do? Say "Your honor, according to this piece of evidence, Mario Jumpman Mario is KO'd!" I just don't see that happening.

Want 30% I do like Phoenix Wright, but I will just be confused if he somehow became a fighter.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Chance 10% sure, he is popular enough. BUT! He is just a lawyer. What is he gonna do? Say "Your honor, according to this piece of evidence, Mario Jumpman Mario is KO'd!" I just don't see that happening.

Want 30% I do like Phoenix Wright, but I will just be confused if he somehow became a fighter.

Check out how he fights in Marvel vs Capcom. It can definitely be done.

 

[DaUsername]

Phoenix Wright
Chance: 5%
We're probably not gonna get any additional Capcom characters except for maybe Ken. Even then, he still has competition with other franchises like Monster Hunter and Resident Evil.
Want: 100%
I'm a big fan of the Ace Attorney series, so having him in Smash would be great. If UMvC3 is anything to go by, ir seems like he'd have a pretty fun moveset, too.

Boktai prediction: 0.2%
Noms: DeMille x5

 

[MajoraMoon]

Check out how he fights in Marvel vs Capcom. It can definitely be done.

Ok, I watched a video. It looks hilarious.

 

[Smasher 101]

Phoenix Wright

Chance: 5%

At this point I think Ken's practically a lock, but then I expect that to be it for Capcom this time. Even if we do get a third franchise, there's big competition from the likes of Resident Evil and Monster Hunter, the latter of which already has some form of representation. Phoenix's still a pretty iconic and popular character with close ties to Nintendo, though, so he's not out of the running.

Want: 70%

Not higher because I think Mega Man and Street Fighter represent Capcom well, but I couldn't say no to Phoenix. Despite thinking the first two were the right two Ace Attorney is still my favorite Capcom franchise, and one of my favorite video game franchises overall. And I'd personally be pretty entertained by seeing what Sakurai's team could come up with.

 

[ProfPeanut]

Abstaining.

Nominations
Sans (boss) x5

 

[TheCJBrine]

I've played Phoenix Wright in Smash Bros. Crusade and he seemed cool, and the whole lawyer/courtroom thing seems cool as well, but I never played his games so I'll abstain. As always, I wouldn't mind the character's inclusion.

Nominations:

Minecraft Steve? x2
Porky Minch x3

 

[Gerrothorax]

Abstaining from today. Putting all five of my noms to my boi Thwomp.

 

[FancySmash]

Pheonix Wright

Chance: 20%
Ace Attorney has been pretty faithful I must say to Nintendo, appearing mainly on Nintendo consoles, but things don't look well for the lawyer. Spots left are slim, and as popular as he is, he isn't usually one of the ones I see talked about, but this could be due to how limited the newcomers are this time. Poor Wright, if things were different, I'm sure there wouldn't be many... objections, to adding him.

Want: 50%
That said, I'd have a few objections. He's an interesting character, and his personality absolutely fit into the Smash realm. It's just... making a moveset for him would be quite the challenge. Taking the Ace Attorney games into account, translating that into a Smash moveset might be tough. I don't think the MvC moveset will cut it. This is Smash, Sakurai likes making movesets as elaborate to the character as possible. It would seem to be a lot of hassle to get him right. For that, it puts me in a 'meh' position, split down the middle.

 

[aarchak]

Phoenix Wright

Chance: 10%
All third party characters have a licensing barrier working against them. For Phoenix, that isn't as much an issue since Capcom has given us Mega Man and Ryu already, but it's still lowering his chances a bit. The main issue is whether Sakurai thinks he needs to be a fighter. I think he'll end up as a trophy or something of the sort, but not as a fighter. I'm not saying it's a moveset issue, MvC made him work, it's an issue of whether Sakurai thinks he should be a fighter, especially over all the other potential candidates.
Want: 80%
He's pretty cool, I like him a lot, and would probably play very uniquely. There isn't much stopping me from wanting him in, and I would be happy to see him. The only reservations I have are whether he should get in over other characters I want.

Nominations
FE Spear User x5

 

[Ridrool64]

I give Wright a 10% chance. He's simply not happening base game.

My want is a 50%. I don't care too much, but I do profit off of him and know somebody who'd probably be much more interested.

Edit: nominate Gooey x 5.

 

[AirMac1]

When are my nominations being covered. Sorry if I sound rude, but I’m nominating a lot, so you know.

 

[GoodGrief741]

When are my nominations being covered. Sorry if I sound rude, but I’m nominating a lot, so you know.

Nominations are counted by the end of each day.

 

[AirMac1]

What is the highest nomination we can do

 

[GoodGrief741]

What is the highest nomination we can do

You always get 5 nominations per day.

 

[letsgetsmashing]

Phoenix Wright

Chance: 1%- I don't really see anyway he makes it into the base roster. Sakurai recently stated that the character reveals are going to start slowing down, and as we know, to make it in as a 3rd party you have to be someone special. I don't think Phoenix is special enough personally. I mean Simon Belmont already made it in, and I doubt we'll be receiving more than one more unique third party. Banjo & Kazooie, Rayman, Sora, and Geno are all more popular, more likely, and more realizable.

Want: 5%- Nothing against him, but there's other third parties I'd rather have. Plus, I'm not a huge fan of guests in Smash unless they're extremely popular gaming icons that I have a connection to, and Phoenix does not fall under this category imo. I would WAY rather have Banjo & Kazooie or Rayman. There's dozens of first parties I would take over him too. I wouldn't be outraged if he got in, but I surely would not be excited for his inclusion.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Its Django's day.

 

[FancySmash]

Right off the bat, I'm abstaining on want. I've never heard of this series, but from a basic look up, it's apparently a GBA game with 2-3 sequels... made by Konami... oh boy, that'll reflect well in his chances.

Django
Chance: 1%
Yeah, I'm not gonna sugar coat this. With Snake and Simon already in ahead of him, and the assumption that his series has all but been forgotten at this point, I'm gonna say that chances are slim. He gets a 1% based on Snake and Simon (oh, and I guess Richter too) opening the floodgates for him, and being a video game character, but that's about it. Even if Konami did get another form of representation, I kinda doubt it'd be Django. Sorry to whoever's been nominating him, I mean no disrespect to the series, but it might be a bit too niche.

Again, abstaining on want.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Django
Chance: 0.01%
I think we're settled when it comes to Konami. Even if we aren't there still are bigger characters with higher priority that they could include. He's simply to obscure.
Also this is assuming he's owned by Konami. He was created by Kojima apparently. If Hideo still has the rights to him it's an absolute zero.

Want: Abstain

The Prince x5

 

[Sari]

Django

Chance: 0%

As much as I hate when “literally who?” is used in this thread, this is probably one of the only times where it’s actually appropriate. This character is so obscure I actually had trouble learning more info about him and his series. From what I understand, his games flopped sales-wise overseas which resulted in the 3rd entry being Japan exclusive. His series as a whole hasn’t been relevant at all in over a decade and almost no one has ever heard of him. There is no way he’d be playable in Smash over other Konami characters such as Bomberman or Bill/Lance from Contra.

Want: 0%

Third party slots are already very limited. There are a ton of other candidates who deserve those spots more.

Nominations: Kyo Kusanagi x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Crazy day for nominations! Brace yourselves, because there’s a lot to take in.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Phoenix Wright pre-Django

Concept: Hanafuda Character x302
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x300
Rowlet x290
Concept: Disconfirmed Characters as DLC x256
Amaterasu x245
Ray (Custom Robo) x237
Thwomp x233

Over 200

No More Stages x231
Linkle x227
Fjorm (Fire Emblem) x205

200 - 151

Rick/Coo/Kine x197
Louie x195
DeMille x193
Balloon Fighter x192
Concept: Metroidvania-like Adventure Mode x192
Concept: More than five unique newcomers (excl. Ridley/Daisy/Inkling) x185
Papyrus x180
Tsubasa Oribe x160
Concept: All-Star Versus x158
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x155
Fire Emblem Three Houses Protagonist x155
Dovahkiin x155
Reimu Hakurei x155
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x151

150 - 101

Item: Beast Ball x150
Concept: Punch Out Newcomer x145
Barbara the Bat x132
Project Zero/Fatal Frame Protagonist x132
Stage: Poke Floats x130
2B x126
Guzma (Pokémon) x120
Susie Haltmann x119
Klonoa x117
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x115
Concept: Pikmin Newcomer x115
Zeraora (Pokemon) x115
Edelgard x115
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x114
Gooey x110
Raiden (Metal Gear) x110
Daroach x102
Tora & Poppi x102

100 - 51

Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x96
Viewtiful Joe x95
Black Knight as a boss character x95
Concept: Only 4-6 newcomers for base roster x90
Silvally x84
Chorus Kids x77
Yu Narakumi x76
Frank West x75
Kyo Kusanagi x75
Veronica x73
9-Volt x68
Item: Breidablik x65
Toon Zelda x65
Endou Mamoru x62
Concept: Historical Character x60
Sans as a boss character x60
Slime x58
Xurkitree (Pokémon) x58
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Character x56
Leo (Fire Emblem) x55
Concept: Wars Characters x53
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x51

50 - 25

Rhythm Girl x50
[Rerate] Spyro x45
Donbe and Hikari (Shin Onigashima) x44
Concept: Unique newcomer with low support (less than 20 supporters on Smashboards) x40
Concept: Xenoblade newcomer x40
The Prince (Katamari) x40
Earthworm Jim x39
Adeleine x39
Stage: Ultra Space x35
Assist Trophy: Chun-Li x35
Concept: Cross series Echoes x35
Concept: DLC character pass x30
Stage: Melemele Island x30
Box Theory x29
Dixie Kong & Kiddy Kong x25
Blacephalon (Pokemon) x25
Master Chief x25

Under 25

Concept: Break the Targets & Board the Platforms stage builder x20
[Rerate] Concept: Zelda newcomer x20
Sub-Zero x17
[Rerate] Steve? x17
Saki Amamiya x17
Joker (Persona) x16
Concept: Modern Kirby Stage (Post Kirby Air Ride) x15
Concept: Custom Moves return x15
Concept: Custom Alternate Colors x15
Alexandra Roivas x15
Kat & Ana x15
[Rerate] Cranky Kong x15
Big Boss x15
Quote x11
Ryuhi (Flying Dragon) x10
Metal Sonic x10
Dr. Lobe (Big Brain Academy) x10
Cross (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x10
Break the Targets x10
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x10
Concept: Dragon Quest content x10
[Rerate] Sora x10
Volleyball Girl (NES Volleyball) x8
Stage Builder x8
Blog Theory x7
[Rerate] Excitebiker x6
Zeke (Xenoblade 2) x6
Stage: Gyromite Stage x5
Nia (Hyrule Warriors) x5
Concept: Valve Newcomer x5
Stage: SR388 x5
Concept: Playable Indie Character x5
Blaze the Cat x5
Alm x5
[Rerate] Octoling x5
[Rerate] Gengar x5
Yandere Chan (Yandere Simulator) x5
Concept: Team Rocket as a Pokémon Trainer Echo x5
Cooking Mama x5
Playable Master Hand x5
Pam (Stardew Valley) x5
Captain Syrup x5
Concept: Return of Palutena’s Guidance/Codec Calls x5
Concept: Free DLC characters x5
Jin (Xenoblade) x5
Concept: Assist Trophy DLC x5
[Rerate] Black Shadow x5
Doshin the Giant x5
Stage: Mute City Melee x5
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x5
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x5
Bartz Klauser x5
Stage: Tetris x5
Concept: Danganronpa music x5
Bub & Bob x5
Merric (Fire Emblem) x5
Conker x5
King Hippo x4
[Rerate] Ayumi Tachibana x4
Concept: New Yoshi item x4
Black Mage x4
Stanley the Bugman x3
[Rerate] Porky Minch x3
Concept: WarioWare newcomer x2
Concept: F-Zero newcomer x2
Diskun x1
Item: Wumpa Fruit x1
Birdo x1
Concept: Any Minecraft representation x1

Hanafuda character crosses 300 nominations. Right on their tail is Fire Emblem spear user, reaching 300 and beating Rowlet for the runner-up spot. At first it appeared that No More Stages would get into the top 7, but all of a sudden people started nominating Thwomp and he got in instead. So, Thwomp kicks Linkle off and takes seventh place.

Fjorm joins the over 200 noms club.

Dovakhiin and Reimu Hakurei both cut through 150 nominations.

We have a lot of new challengers today: a Tetris stage, Danganronpa music, Bub & Bob, Merric, and Conker all join the ranks with 5 nominations. We’ve also got a rerate of Porky with 3 nominations.

REMINDER: TODAY’S THE LAST DAY YOU CAN INFLUENCE THE TOP 7

 

[colder_than_ice]

Django
Chance: 0% - There are probably at least 15 Konami character’s more iconic that would get in ahead of him. Boktai hasn’t had a game in over a decade, and with no current handheld systems using outer cartridges that could make use of light sensors, it’s unlikely to get another.
Want: 50% - I honestly think it would be hilarious if they made a character that became stronger when you played your Nintendo Switch outside and under the sunlight, although it would be extremely unpractical for competitive play.

Yes, that was the actual gimmick of the Boktai series. A video game that forces you play outside and get a tan. It was a very weird series.

Nominations: Edelgard x5

 

[Artix]

Django (Boktai)

Chance: 0%
I don't think Django would made it in, especially since Simon, Richter and Snake all represent Konami in Ultimate. Besides, he's too obscure and I'm pretty sure that will be it for Konami, unless DLC comes around. But even then, he still has to face the likes of Bomberman or even Bill Rizer from Contra if he really wants to get in as DLC.

Want: Abstain
Don't know much about Django, to be honest. Haven't played any of his games either.

Nominations:
Kyo Kusanagi x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Django in chains

Chance: 0.5%
Sigh... what can I say about Django? History remembers him as that game where you use the sun. Well, that is if history even remembers him. Frequently considered the worst game Kojima made, and it’s not even bad. Nobody wants him in Smash. Nobody seems to want him period. No chance of a sequel. Konami will probably only get Bomberman and maybe a Metal Gear Echo in Smash, ever.

Want: Sorry Django, but I don’t have any reason to want you. 0%

Nominations: Rayx5

 

[TheSmashBros]

Goku 50% Banjo-Kazooie 50%

 

[GoodGrief741]

Goku 50% Banjo-Kazooie 50%

We’re rating Django today.

 

[NintenRob]

Double 0
Do I even need to explain why? I think everyone has said what has needed to be said. Plus I never heard of this before today which is not good for Smash characters.

Nominate no more stages x5

 

[Erureido]

Abstaining for today since I'm not that familiar with the character (I've heard of him thanks to the third sequel of Nin10doh from a long while back, but that was about it in regards to my exposure of him).

------

Nominations

Susie (Kirby): x5

 

[smileMasky]

The other golden boy

Chances: 1%
As of right now it's an impossibility. After all Konam8 sure did make it so that they never advertise it properly even in Japan. But se la vie

Want: 85%
His games hold a special place in my heart and did something new in the GBA

Nomination Bob&Bub x5

 

[ProfPeanut]

Abstaining. (I feel that someone else- like whoever voted for this charater - ought tk speak in his favor soon.)

Nominations:
Sans (boss) x5