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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

Sari

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Day over.

Rate Cynthia from Pokemon.

Predict Concept: The remaining SSB4 DLC Mii Costumes return (or get the deluxe treatment).

Today is the last day to affect the top nom spots so use your noms wisely.

Megadoomer Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the Cynthia mood:

 

Perkilator

Smash Legend
Writing Team
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Apr 8, 2018
Messages
11,407
Location
The perpetual trash fire known as Planet Earth(tm)
Not to be confused with the doll that Totally FANNY plays with
Chance: 0%

The only human we have is Pokémon Trainer. And even then, you still play as their Pokémon. So I’m not sure Sakurai would wanna copy-paste that concept, different character or not.

Want: 0%
I’m sorry, I don’t hate her in any way. But I’d prefer an actual Pokémon as our next Pokémon series fighter (Gen 8 or not).

Remaining SSB4 costumes’ Deluxe treatment: 60%

Noms:
Crazy Dave x5
 

BowserKing

Smash Lord
Joined
Feb 16, 2019
Messages
1,918
Location
winnipeg
Cynthia

Chance: 10%. She is quite popular and she has some unique Pokémon, so this gives her a slight advantage. Thing is, she can’t use Lucario since that Pokémon is already playable in Smash. It’s more likely that Garachomp and Milotic would be the playable Pokémon is she was selected, and even then, the more modern Pokémon has the higher advantage, but we have been surprised before.

Want: 70%. I do think Cynthia (and her Garachomp and Milotic) would be fun to play as, and I can see her team up with Lucario against Pokémon Trainer in battle. Overall, Cynthia would make a fun fighter in Smash and we can get more Simon Pokémon representation as well.

Prediction: Remaining Costumes Deluxe Treament (5%)

Noms: 5 for Concept: Second F-Zero Rep
 

waddledeeonredyoshi

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 29, 2014
Messages
1,536
Location
Drenthe, NL
Sinthia
Chance: 0%
We are not getting another Pokemon Trainer like character. If we're getting another Pokemon, it will be one individual Pokemon instead of multiple with their own movesets. Things lke that can be pulled off with the base game but not with DLC. The time just isn't there. Also, if we do get another Pokemon, it will certainly be one from Gen 8. I know that everyone and their grandma are expecting DP remakes to come. A group of people might even even expect those to be promoted through Smash and those expectations aren't really misplaced since that kinda happened with FR/LG, with :ultpokemontrainer:getting into Brawl, but we got Lucario from Gen 4,the most recent gen at the time, along with him. We currently have no Gen 8 rep and I expect that to take priority anyday over promoting some remakes that may or may not exist when we already have a Sinnoh mon on the roster.

Want: 1%
I'd take this over an Sword/Shield mon and I do like Sinnoh (no faith in the potential remakes tho) but Gen 4 already has its representation. To be frank, I'm not really interested in any Pokemon right now. No matter what Cynthia would bring. This also just seems like unnecessary dev time that could be spent better elsewhere.


SSB4 costumes return: 14.76%
Beat x10 (if I qualify)
 
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TCT~Phantom

Smash Master
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Dec 10, 2013
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TCT~Phantom
Cynthia
0% Chance

Look, we don't tend to get trainers. We have one in smash. And that one has one of the single most popular pokemon ever in its roster. The odds of Sakurai hard revisiting this concept for dlc is already low. I doubt that they would choose Cynthia, even with Sinnoh remakes potentially looming. I think if we did get a Sinnoh Shill rep, it would be Garchomp anyway.

30% Want

I mean, I like Garchomp. But I doubt that I would care enough for all the other mons to really enjoy this character. I would also just say I would prefer just regular Garchomp, or a non human pokemon character. I also think Pokemon is fine as it is right now, and would prefer if we did get a new character it would be gen 8. And I don't really want a gen 8 mon. So yeah, not a fan tbh.

Nominating Neku x 10
 

Sari

Editing Staff
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New Jersey
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Oh boy what a lovely day in Undella Town I sure hope I don't run into a champion in any of these houses

Chance: 0%
If we're going to get another Pokemon character then it's pretty much guaranteed to be someone from Gen VIII. It's the most recent Pokemon Gen without any representation at the moment so I don't see why Nintendo/Sakurai wouldn't go for it. We usually get Pokemon as characters instead of the actual human characters so I don't see Cynthia happening at all. Sinnoh also has a ton of representation already in the form of Lucario and Spear Pillar so I don't see them double-dipping on it. Even if a Sinnoh remakes were to happen and they had the urge to promote it for some reason, we'd probably just get another Sinnoh Pokemon instead of Cynthia herself.

Want: 5%
I'm fine with the Pokemon characters we have right now (well not really, it's just that I'm tired of getting more Pokemon). Unless it's a specific Pokemon that I really like Blaziken then just about all Pokemon ratings will get low want scores from me. Cynthia is cool and all but I really don't think Sinnoh needs another character with Lucario already being a thing. Add both a Hoenn and Unova Pokemon into Smash and then we'll talk.

I'll give this a very small score just because I like Cynthia and her Pokemon. Also because Cynthia's inclusion would probably kill a Sword/Shield reps chances which is fine with me.

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SSB4 costumes return/get Deluxe'd chance prediction: 24.05%

Nominations:
Mii Costume: 2B x10
 
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Cutie Gwen

Lovely warrior
Joined
Jul 1, 2014
Messages
63,834
Location
Somewhere out there on this big blue marble
The awakening of many a lesbian

Chance: 0% Yeah no, realistically speaking, this is outright impossible. TPC is super protective of the series and not once have we seen a trainer physically brawl it out, which makes sense, it's not what the series is about and is bound to cause controversy, hell, the trainer doesn't get involved like that either and is merely a background element. "Ok but what if Cynthia just stays in the back like the trainers, perfect right?" Wrong, that means making 3 different Pokemon, which means 3 extra models to fully animate and give their full movesets, I know Steve took more effort than most DLC characters due to needing to go and work on every stage, but I can imagine that's still less work than creating 3 entire characters, especially as Sakurai's said Steve was made during the pandemic and how this whole year's only had 3 characters released.

Want: abstain, I stopped caring about Pokemon a while ago and I'm not interested in an 11th to 13th character from the series.

Velvet Crowe x5
 

fogbadge

Smash Obsessed
Joined
Jun 29, 2012
Messages
22,658
Location
Scotland
excellent a character i know

chance: 0% yeah not happening. even if we ignore the fact that we're most like to get something from gen 8 we're still unlikely to get another trainer. red is made as blanket character to cover basically any kind of pokemon trainer. even if there are gen 4 remakes in the works liked rumoured it wouldnt help her just ask any supporter of the gen 3 pokemon. we all know that if we get any new pokemon itll be someone from gen 1. the focus is usally on gen 1 and the new ones. i just dont think she has anything going for her.

want: well i guess itd depend on who she brought with her but ill say 40%. cynthia is probably my favourite character of the champions and some of her signature pokemon like garchomp and spiritomb would be fun to play as. however while im not against them rehashing the pokemon trainer idea id rather it went to a gen that didnt already have a playable pokemon, 3, 5, 8. so while it would be an ok idea it dont think it would too exciting. mind you i try not to hope for specific pokemon as i feel i just get burned.

noms qbby x10
 
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DanganZilla5

Smash Champion
Writing Team
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Messages
2,434
Cynthia

Chance: 1%

I'm only giving this a single digit due to Gen 4 remakes being likely for next year. Otherwise, I can't see her being added as she has too many obstacles in her way. First, a Gen 8 Pokemon would most likely take priority because its the mainline games and for remakes we only got Pokemon Trainer for Leafgreen/firered as the sole case of remakes getting a shill character in Smash. Speaking of Pokemon Trainer, he is the only human character from Pokemon to get into the roster and right now I'm not seeing another situation like his. Sure, it could happen as I'm not sure if it would take more time than Steve's mechanic which had to be implemented and tested on all 100+ stages, so I don't think that hurts her chances. But what does hurt her chances is there is a strong possibility that...they will just simply make one of Cynthia's Pokemon like Garchomp playable and call it a day. If Nintendo asked Sakurai to put in another Gen 4 rep, why would he make 3 Pokemon instead of just making one Pokemon? I mean yes Cynthia's Pokemon are popular but not even close to Pokemon Trainer's Pokemon so there is no strong reason to program another Pokemon Trainer type character. And if it's just one Pokemon, then Cynthia would definitely not be there. The point is, I don't see this being the timeline where Cynthia gets a spot.

Want: 25%

Normally I would give this an extremely low score as I really don't want another Pokemon rep and I really want new franchises to get characters. But I would kind of be down with this. If she is another Pokemon Trainer type character then that would practically be 3 new characters instead of 1 which would be neat. Garchomp alone would be great as he is a cool looking Pokemon and would have a fun moveset. Plus I do have a bias for Gen 4 since Platinum was my first Pokemon game.

Prediction: Smash 4 Mii costumes - 50% (Great idea btw)

Noms: Among Us character x10
 

Ridrool64

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Messages
1,398
Location
New Jersey
Imagine being that kid who wandered into Cynthia's vacation home in BW/2 and didn't know what they were getting into.

Chance: 0%. Not from Galar so GG. I'd make an exception if she was from Kanto, but Cynthia is from Sinnoh which is represented, and isn't Kanto or the latest gen.

But for a moment let's look at what the chances of Cynthia getting in would be even if the "Pokémon reps are either Kanto or latest gen region" thing was finally broken. They still would be very low, not only because Cynthia competes with tons upon tons of other characters from Pokémon but also, because there isn't really a moveset for Cynthia herself. Now I know that the obvious solution is make her a Pokémon Trainer and the real fighters are the Pokémon she brings, but that's not what what I envision out of this rating. And even then... sure there's Garchomp, but what would they do for the other two Pokémon? You can't do Lucario as he's been long in. Pretty much the rest of her Pokémon are really minor and don't really have a reason to be included, and a bunch of them have designs that would not particularly mesh well with Smash. So at that point, if you're left with just Garchomp, you could just have only Garchomp, but then you're not really Cynthia, you're Garchomp with a Cynthia cheerleader in the background.

And until proven to exist, Diamond and Pearl remakes do not count. Even then, only once has a remake gotten in a character, and while it was Pokémon, it was also Kanto.

Want: 70%. I actually think Cynthia would be a pretty lame choice, but any Pokémon character that doesn't come from the latest generation is a good pick by default. An extremely good pick, since that opens up the doors for any Pokémon from Johto all the way to Alola. So many Pokémon hopefuls from those generations that I can't help but get excited for Pokémon speculation again. And besides, if nothing else, a Garchomp in Smash would be cool. You can't really say no to something like that. New types represented, and a lot of potential, so... yeah, I'm down.

CJ and Arle x 5. 35.64% ignoring people who think Lloyd/Geno/MH is coming, 5.75% factoring them in... Eh, screw it, I'll go with 14.26%. This upcoming day is going to be very controversial, especially among people who consider DLC Mii Costumes a definitive sign a prospective newcomer didn't make it, and/or those who really want one of the Mii's.
 

Jomosensual

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
2,014
Cynthia

Chance 1 - Gen 4 remakes are the only reason I'm giving this a slight chance. She can't be an echo of the Pokemon Trainer that's already in the game, that would make no sense and I don't think they'd just have her jack PT's gimmick for DLC. That would also kinda suck. She's also not running in there to throw punches or picks or anything like that. Plus if they do the transform gimmick then they have to basically make 3 new characters as well. Nothing about this seems likely. Maybe there's some way to make this work well that I'm not thinking of though.

Want 10 - Eh, not really interested in this. Transform characters aren't really my favorite. I think I'd rather get someone like Toxtricity or another more interesting Gen 8 Pokemon. Or maybe a different gen 4 rep perhaps.

Predictions:
Smash 4 Mii Costumes - 45%

Noms:
No Internet TRex x10
 

ahemtoday

Smash Ace
Joined
Oct 30, 2020
Messages
874
Cynthia

Chance: 0.2%


I don't think this is happening. I think the logic with this one is that she'd be chosen to advertise the new Sinnoh remakes, but there are a couple of prerequisites for that to be the case. First of all, there has to actually be Sinnoh remakes, which we have to keep in mind are not actually guaranteed. People have sure brought up pretty convincing evidence there'll be one, but that's no reason to talk like they 100% exist. Second of all, they have to want to put a character to advertise the Sinnoh remake in the Fighter's Pass. Now, at this point it doesn't look like we're going to get a SwSh Pokemon, though people were acting like it was a completely guaranteed thing for a while. The Pokemon we get tend to be relevant to whatever's going on in the series at the time, so I suppose if the remakes existed, and if we get a Pokemon character, then it'll be from Sinnoh.

Lastly, they have to pick Cynthia. And this is the part where everything goes downhill. I'm not sure what reason they would have to do this. Yes, Cynthia is a popular character, but we only got one Pokemon character that isn't an actual Pokemon. And that was Pokemon Trainer, who uses multiple Pokemon and doesn't fight on the field of battle themselves. While you can imagine a moveset for Cynthia that doesn't work that way (and frankly... it actually looks really cool in my head), the natural first thing to jump to is one that does.

And I think a Pokemon Trainer-like moveset for Cynthia has a zero percent chance of happening. In Smash 4, we saw every transformation character get decoupled. I believe Sakurai said that this was for hardware limitations, but he also said that perhaps it was a good choice even without taking that into account. Paraphrased, of course. Ultimate seems to have backed this up, as all the characters remained separate. Except Pokemon Trainer. My suspicion is that while Sakurai seems to have made up his mind regarding most transformation characters, Pokemon Trainer was a "playable character" that would be technically excluded if Squirtle, Ivysaur, and Charizard were separated - and thus the Trainer had to be included as part of "Everyone is Here". Alternatively, he may have simply thought Squirtle and Ivysaur seemed strange as standalone characters; or that switching between characters should only be one character's thing and that should be Pokemon Trainer. My point is, I get the feeling Pokemon Trainer is an exception, and that Sakurai isn't interested in having any more transformation characters on the roster. Even if he was, this would be the resources of at least two fighters to create. While Steve may have taken a lot of work, I don't think even he took twice as much as others.

Okay, but I just said I could imagine a moveset that wasn't that for Cynthia, so clearly that's not an issue, right? Well, here's the problem - there's a lot of competition. I came up with the idea of a Cynthia that runs around alongside her Garchomp because I was sitting here trying to think of a way to make her work, but Sakurai's not doing that. He has to consider Cynthia alongside every other Gen 4 Pokemon. Frankly, she's lucky if she even gets a bit of consideration before he narrows it down to a smaller list of candidates.

Suffice to say, I don't think Cynthia has a chance.

Want: 17.5%

Honestly? The way it looks in my head is pretty cool, but if we did get Cynthia it probably wouldn't be like that. I'm not really interested in another Pokemon Trainer, and I would rather see the extra resources a character like that takes to create put toward a character from a different series.

I guess I wouldn't be too mad, though. Cynthia's cool and popular enough that she honestly is probably the top contender for a second Pokemon trainer. And there's always the chance that they do something unique with her.

Still, though, I'm not too crazy about it.

Prediction for S4 Mii 'stumes: 30%
Noms: Junpei x9, Neku x1
 
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zferolie

Smash Hero
Joined
Jul 2, 2013
Messages
5,002
The 1 Pokemon character I want the most.

CHance: 10%. Her only chance is if they want to promote Gen 4 remakes. Why she isn;t a zero though is that she is BY FAR the most popular champion that wasn't a player character. Cynthia has a lot of love in the pokemon community and the games for the longest time.

Now, I have been seeing some people say, oh, she'll just be like the pokemon trainer, but I LONG ago thought of a very unique playstyle for her. She fights on the feild, but almost all her attacks involve her pokemon. As a champion, I imagine that she is so skilled that she can easily be on the field with her pokemon and command them much better then any other trainer. She would use all 6 of her main pokemon, replacing lucario of course. Garchomp, Milotic, Spiritomb, Togekiss, Roserade, and Glaceon. I even had a friend of mine draw some art of her way back for Smash 4 before Lucario was shown to return. So replace Lucario with Milotic.

Cynthia for smash.jpg


As for a moveset, I made one ages ago on the Cynthia for smash page. Not sure if I should link it here, but I here is the basic idea. All her moves except her jab, involve her calling out one of her 6 pokemon to do the attack. Some examples: her normal combo two slaps from Cynthia, then a third hit from Milotic. Cynthia slaps the foe, then back hands them, then she spins away, snapping her fingers as Milotic appears coiled around Cynthina and does a slight tail slap . Her dash attack is calling out Garchomp, who does dragon rush. Down Air is Spiritomb pulmeting down while Cynthia holds on to him. Up Smash in Roserade using Energy Ball to make a ball of energy above her to damage foes.

Cynthia can shield during any of these moves, to cancle her own animation during it, like how Incineroar can stop his poses. This doesn't stop the pokemon's attack(Garchomp will still do his dragon rush even if Cynthia jumps off early), and cynthia can use any attack that doesn't involve the pokemon still out of the pokemon(like if garchomp is still doing the dash attack, CYnthia cannot forward smash to do Garchomps Giga Impact, but she can use any other pokemons attacks for a combo. Also, I'll drop her B attacks below as well.

Standard B: Destiny Bond. Spiritomb appears in front of Cynthia and glows for a moment. If any attack hits it, The foe glows, Spiritomb returns to it’s pokeball, and the foe is bonded to Cynthia for 10 seconds. Any damage Cynthia takes during that time, the foe will also receive. If Destiny bond misses, Spiritomb sits on the ground for a few moments before returning, locking Cynthia out of a few attacks like her grabs and Down Aerial.

Side B: Surf. Milotic appears coiled around Cynthia, and cries out, making a small wave of water flow out in front of Cynthia. It goes the same distance as Ice climbers ice block, but anyone hit by it takes damage and is knocked away.

Up B: Sky Attack. Cynthia jumps onto Togekiss, who flies up about the vertical distance Sonic's Up B goes while glowing. At the peak, Cynthia leaps off and Togekiss zooms down in the direction you at pointing the analog stick, causing damage and going through anyone in it’s path till Togekiss hits a floor, wall, or goes OB. Hitting a floor or wall causing a small blast of energy. When Cynthia leaps off she is free to attack right away. If Togekiss returns before Cynthia hits the ground, she can use this move again.

Down B: Hail. Glaceon appears where Cynthia is standing, and cries out. High above Glaceon (thunder level) a icy cloud appears and makes it start to Hail around Glaceon. Glaceon vanishes 1 second after starting the attack, and Cynthia can move around and attack with any move that doesn’t use Glaceon during this attack(during that 1 second glaceon is out). 10 pieces of hall fall per second, and does little damage and stun in each hit. If a foe is caught in the attack, they will get hit the will slowly be pushed out, only someone trapped in a corner and under the effect of a supper mushroom will be hit by every attack. You cannot use this move again till the current hail finishes.

Sorry for the long post here, but really I have been brainstorming Cynthia for smash for years., and just wanted to show how she can be completely different from another pokemon trainer.

Want: 100% After reading the above, how can it not be 100%? I know her chances are very low but damn it I want her so bad.

Nom: Donbe and Hikari x5
 

DrifloonEmpire

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 2, 2019
Messages
2,230
Gonna abstain today since I don't have the energy for a write-up. Though given Pokemon's track record in Smash, human characters always take the sidelines while the Pokemon themselves take center stage (much like Monster Hunter). Thus even with Gen 4 remakes on the horizon it'd probably be a Gen 4 Pokemon that gets picked instead (hopefully Infernape or Drifblim). Main series Pokemon games always release in November, and that lines up with FP11, and we always end off on a disappointing choice. So promotional timing lines up but even with Cynthia's popularity one of her own Pokemon may take canter stage instead of she herself.

Nominations:
4x Strategy Rep x5

Predictions:
Smash 4 Mii Costumes Return - 59.33% - Expecting a lot of controversy here, but with Gil's costume helping establish a pattern I expect a lot of confidence too.
 
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Lionfranky

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 4, 2019
Messages
1,037
Cynthia

Chance: 3%

I think if Pokemon has to get rep, it has to be Pokemon themselves especially after Trainer already took that spot, and this is DLC. I don't think she can promote much of Pokemon like Gen 8. It would be weird to promote current generation with the past generation. Unless there is remake on the way, I see little to no chance. Competition within Pokemon is already fierce. And I'm not sure whether Nintendo feels compelled to promote Pokemon through Smash again when it's already juggernaut on its own. You can say they still went for Steve, but that was going for new market. There is little to no new market to get by using Pokemon at this stage.

Want: 50%

I'm neutral. I think it's possible for Sakurai to come up with moveset that would set her apart from Trainer. On the other hand, there are more unique and better choices out there. I won't be upset if she gets in. But I would be kinda disappointed nonetheless.

Nom: Characters that don't have their games on Nintendo platform x 10
 

chocolatejr9

Smash Hero
Joined
Sep 30, 2018
Messages
8,383
Gonna abstain today since I don't have the energy for a write-up. Though given Pokemon's track record in Smash, human characters always take the sidelines while the Pokemon themselves take center stage (much like Monster Hunter). Thus even with Gen 4 remakes on the horizon it'd probably be a Gen 4 Pokemon that gets picked instead (hopefully Infernape or Drifblim). Main series Pokemon games always release in November, and that lines up with FP11, and we always end off on a disappointing choice. So promotional timing lines up but even with Cynthia's popularity one of her own Pokemon may take canter stage instead of she herself.

Nominations:
Mad Rat (Mad Rat Dead) x5

Predictions:
Smash 4 Mii Costumes Return - 59.33% - Expecting a lot of controversy here, but with Gil's costume helping establish a pattern I expect a lot of confidence too.
Just so you know, Mad Rat doesn't have a support thread. You might have to nominate someone else.
 

Sari

Editing Staff
Writing Team
Joined
Aug 3, 2014
Messages
4,439
Location
New Jersey
NNID
Villager49
Switch FC
SW-2215-0173-2152
Why do nominations need support threads anyway?
It's to help deter joke ratings which we used to get a fair amount of. That way if I want to nominate the red mailbox from Wind Waker, I now have to go through the effort of making a support thread for it. Most people won't bother doing this for characters they aren't serious in supporting/rating.
 

Lyncario

Smash Ace
Joined
Dec 3, 2019
Messages
926
Location
Hell
The original user of the piano of doom

Chance: 0%

Yeah, it's not hapening. But before talking about the heavy negatives she has, let's first talk about the positives she got. First of all, she's a very popular character, which is always good. Then, there's also how it seems that the Pokemon DP remakes seem to be the next one coming, meaning that she would be relevavant, and with the ability to shill the game. Now, for the less good stuff. First of all, Pokemon needing shilling? Really? Second, the only humans from Pokemon we have in Smash are Red and Leaf, who only apear as background. Could Cynthiaa be a Pokemon trainer style character? Maybe, but it would make so that she needs around 3 times the ammount of ressources a regular character needs, even if Cynthia with Garchomp, Spiritomb, and Roserade seems pretty badass for Smash. She could just be there with Garchomp, though she wouldn't really be the fighter, even if Garchomp is the Pokemon associated with her by far the most, you could even say that Garchomp's and Cynthia's popularities are pretty much tied togethers. There's also the option of Cynthia being on the batlefield and summoning her Pokemons trough Pokeballs while being the one to take the hits, which is also badass, though considering how Pokemon is, it would never get greenlitted. So the only option would be if it's Cynthia and Garchomp but mostly Garchomp. The fact that she wouldn't be the character also goes very much against her too.

However, I will say that I pretty much expect her to becomes the new "BotW2/AoC Impa" after the DP remakes are innevitably revealed. People will talk a lot about her and say that she's likely for being a shill pick of a game that doesn't need shilling, while making very little sense about why she's likely.

Want: 88%

Yeah, I like Cynthia a lot as you could tell that I called her badass many times, and she's also one of my top pick for a new Pokemon character in Smash, behind Bisharp and Grovyle, and over N. She could just be such a badass character, and embodies one of the greatest, most chalenging, and fun fight in all of the Pokemon series. Besides, Cynthia is one of the most recurring character in the series, and it's always awesome every time, there's good reasons to it after all.

Predictions

Sm4sh miis return: 28.4%

Nominations

Boss rush x8
LoL x2
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Remember: this is your last chance to change the top 7 before it becomes next week's schedule!

Vectorman x185
Carl Johnson x175
Don-chan x170
T-Rex Runner x150
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x149
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x149
[Rerate] Monokuma x145
[Rerate] Arle Nadja x145

150 - 101

Cooking Mama x140
Mii Costume: Monika x135
John Marston x135
Crazy Dave x130
Worms x130
Qbby x130
D.Va x115
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x115
Boss: Ender Dragon x103
[Rerate] Neku x103

100 - 51

Zero (Mega Man) x95
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x93
Riptor x85
Boss: Rayquaza x85
Concept: A 4X strategy rep x85
Concept: Characters that don't have games on Nintendo platforms x85
Stage: Bowser's Castle x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x80
Fulgore x79
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Velvet Crowe x75
Giygas x71
Mii Costume: 2B x60
Echo (Olimar) x56
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55
Ghirahim x55

50 - 25

Tetra x45
Echo (Bowser) x40
Junpei (Zero Escape) x36
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x30
Concept: Among Us character x30
Ryza (Atelier) x25
Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x25

Under 25

Yarn Yoshi x15
Billy & Jimmy Lee x15
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x15
[Rerate] Master Chief x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Filia (Skullgirls) x12
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Estelle Bright x10
Mii Costume: Zagreus x10
Mii Costume: Madeline x10
Regigigas x10
Peppino (Pizza Tower) x8
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
Stage: Tetris x5
[Rerate] Agumon x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
[Rerate] Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5

Carl Johnson steals second place from Don-chan.

Neku collects over 100 noms.

Hey, I seem to remember at one point the chance and want scores would get averaged up for each character. Is that still happening? I kinda liked that.
Sorry for the late reply! But yes, I'll have those done on Wednesday.
 
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GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Pokemon Masters EX, or however the famous hashtag went

Double zeroes. Simply put, we aren't getting Pokemon characters that aren't from the latest generation. Pokemon fighters nowadays are selected with one goal in mind, and that's promotion. That's certainly not bound to change, especially now that Nintendo is picking the DLC. I guess the argument could be made about an upcoming Gen 4 remake, but personally I'm not going to start speculating about games we don't know exist. For all we know Gen 4 is 2022 and next year is Let's Go Johto. Aside from that, Smash hasn't really represented the trainers. It took until the third game for Red to get in, and until Ultimate he was the sole trainer represented. Cynthia's status in canon and popularity makes her one of the two human characters I could see making the cut in theory (N's the other one), but in practice... It's Pokemon. Though I will say that I don't think having to make three characters is too much of a development hassle anymore; I just think they probably want to leave Pokemon Trainer as being the only one with that gimmick.

As for want, Pokemon needs to time out for a bit. It has 10 characters, and one of them's Incineroar. If you have room in your character selection for Incineroar then you're overrepresented. Give other franchises a chance please. Even if I'd personally like to see Cynthia, my hope that we don't get more Pokemon characters simply outweighs my desire to see more unique choices and characters from older gens.

Noms: Cooking Mama x11
That concept prediction: 73.85%
 

Inue Houji

Purplish Wig
Joined
Oct 8, 2020
Messages
265
It's to help deter joke ratings which we used to get a fair amount of. That way if I want to nominate the red mailbox from Wind Waker, I now have to go through the effort of making a support thread for it. Most people won't bother doing this for characters they aren't serious in supporting/rating.
That's unfortunate. It's inevitable, I guess.

Cynthia
Chance: 8%
While I don't think she's likely, she does have some things going for her. She's probably the most popular champion and one of the most popular characters that isn't gen 1. The gen 4 remakes are probably not too far away, and Pokémon still hasn't had a DLC character. That's pretty much it for the positives.
There are some issues making her not very likely though, the main one being how she would play. Copying Pokémon Trainer's gimmick is probably a no-no for Sakurai, and even if copying gimmicks was okay, doing that requires twice/thrice as much work as a normal DLC character.
The fact that out of 8 Pokémon characters, only a single one has been a trainer, is also a bad sign. Not to mention, it's also a generic trainer. It doesn't really seem like they want to give the spotlight to the human characters in Pokémon.
There's also no guarantee the remakes will release next year, for that matter.

Want: 15%
I'm not really that keen on more Pokémon characters, but if we were to have one, Cynthia would be an excellent choice.
DPPt were the first Pokémon games I owned, so I might be biased, but even then, I stand by those games having the greatest OST of any Pokémon game.
For Cynthia herself, I've never felt the sense of "Final Boss" in a game as much as the fight with her.

Predict Mii costumes returning: 42%

Nominations
Beat x10
 
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fogbadge

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It's to help deter joke ratings which we used to get a fair amount of. That way if I want to nominate the red mailbox from Wind Waker, I now have to go through the effort of making a support thread for it. Most people won't bother doing this for characters they aren't serious in supporting/rating.
was that an actual nom once?
 

DrifloonEmpire

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 2, 2019
Messages
2,230
It's to help deter joke ratings which we used to get a fair amount of. That way if I want to nominate the red mailbox from Wind Waker, I now have to go through the effort of making a support thread for it. Most people won't bother doing this for characters they aren't serious in supporting/rating.
Shouldn't this rule be a little more dynamic? I get it for stuff like Dr. Goomba Tower (which was allowed until it was hit during a noms purge), but if the character clearly isn't some kind of joke, I don't think this should be required. Especially since a lot of the support threads people create specifically for Rate Their Chances tend to not go anywhere. Honestly I think this rule is due for an amendment.
 

fogbadge

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Shouldn't this rule be a little more dynamic? I get it for stuff like Dr. Goomba Tower (which was allowed until it was hit during a noms purge), but if the character clearly isn't some kind of joke, I don't think this should be required. Especially since a lot of the support threads people create specifically for Rate Their Chances tend to not go anywhere. Honestly I think this rule is due for an amendment.
hmm could lead to some interesting debates about who is and isnt a joke character. i mean i would say even in the context of his own game dr goomba tower is a bit of a joke character. of course debating who is and isnt a joke character could derail the thread a bit. i would say for the most part the rule makes sense.

and ive made plenty of threads that go nowhere regardless of whether or not im nominating them here
 

Sari

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Day over.

Rate Concept: The remaining SSB4 DLC Mii Costumes return (or get the deluxe treatment).

Tomorrow we will be doing predictions for The Game Awards show, so nothing to predict for today.

Megadoomer Megadoomer

-----

Since I nominated this concept, I’ll explain it clearly.

As of this writing there are 5 DLC Mii Costumes from SSB4 that still haven’t appeared in Ultimate yet. These costumes are:
  • Monster Hunter outfit (Monster Hunter)
  • Rathalos Armor (Monster Hunter)
  • Lloyd Irving (Tales of Symphonia)
  • Geno (Super Mario RPG)
  • Chocobo Hat (Final Fantasy)


Today’s concept is asking whether you think ALL of these costumes will return. So if you think that all of these are guaranteed to return then you’d give a high chance score. If you think at least one will absolutely not make a comeback then you’d give this a low score.

Keep in mind that this concept also counts if any of these costumes gets a deluxe improvement to their costume (or just any general upgrade to how they look). So if we get a new deluxe Geno costume similar to Sans/Cuphead and the other 4 SSB4 costumes return, then this concept is confirmed.

So to make it simple: we’re rating if you think all of the 5 characters listed above will appear as costumes.
 
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Perkilator

Smash Legend
Writing Team
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The perpetual trash fire known as Planet Earth(tm)
General return chance: 90%
Only roadblock in Geno and Chocobo's case is any other legal issues regarding SE. Even then, they did play ball with some of their other content, so I don't see it all as doom and gloom.

Deluxe Chance: 2 in 5
Hear me out for a second. When I say "2 in 5", I'm specifically referring to the Geno and Lloyd costumes.

Basically, what I'm saying is that only Geno and Lloyd has the chance to get the deluxe treatment (the latter being if Tales doesn't get a fighter or gets Yuri as their fighter).

Want: 100%
General wise? Don't really care too much, moreso I wanna have the rest here. Deluxe wise? Yes, please. I bought the Sans and Cuphead costumes because they came with music. I want a real incentive to buy Mii costumes, deluxe or not.

Noms:
Crazy Dave x5
 
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3DSNinja

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 30, 2018
Messages
1,390
I'm abstaining tbh have no ****in idea how to rate this because of chocobo and MH and ****

Nominations:
Neku x2, Peppino x2, Firebrand x1
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
THESE CHARACTERS ARE LOCKED DOWN, NOMINATIONS FOR THEM ARE OBSOLETE

Day 547: The Game Awards predictions

Day 548: Vectorman (VectorMan)
Day 549: Carl Johnson (Grand Theft Auto)
Day 550: Don-chan (Taiko no Tatsujin)
Day 551: T-Rex Runner (Dinosaur Game)
Day 552: Concept: Boss Rush
Day 553: Concept: Second F-Zero rep
Day 554: Cooking Mama (Cooking Mama)


In a shocking turn, the last spot goes not to Monokuma or to Arle, but to Cooking Mama! And also, Boss Rush broke its longtime tie with Second F-Zero rep, and ironically it was the F-Zero concept that lost the race.

The new top seven consists of Monokuma, Arle Nadja, Qbby, Mii Costume: Monika, John Marston, Crazy Dave, and Worms.


[Rerate] Monokuma x150
[Rerate] Arle Nadja x150
Qbby x140
Mii Costume: Monika x135
John Marston x135
Crazy Dave x135
Worms x130

150 - 101

[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x122
[Rerate] Neku x117
D.Va x115
Boss: Ender Dragon x103

100 - 51

Beat (Jet Set Radio) x100
Zero (Mega Man) x95
Concept: Characters that don't have games on Nintendo platforms x95
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x93
Concept: A 4X strategy rep x90
Riptor x85
Boss: Rayquaza x85
Stage: Bowser's Castle x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Velvet Crowe x80
Fulgore x79
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Giygas x71
Mii Costume: 2B x70
Echo (Olimar) x56
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55
Ghirahim x55

50 - 25

Tetra x45
Junpei (Zero Escape) x45
Echo (Bowser) x40
Concept: Among Us character x40
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x30
Ryza (Atelier) x25
Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x25

Under 25

Yarn Yoshi x15
Billy & Jimmy Lee x15
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x15
[Rerate] Master Chief x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Filia (Skullgirls) x12
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Estelle Bright x10
Mii Costume: Zagreus x10
Mii Costume: Madeline x10
Regigigas x10
Peppino (Pizza Tower) x10
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
Stage: Tetris x5
[Rerate] Agumon x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
[Rerate] Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5

Challengers approaching! It's Donbe and Hikari, with 5 noms.
 

Brodemmars

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Feb 1, 2020
Messages
197
95%
Personally I predict that all of these Mii costumes will likely return

Coinciding with a Capcom character or a popular creature like Crash
-Monster Hunter outfit
-Rathalos Armor

Coinciding with a BN character or sword wielding character like Ryu H.
-Lloyd Irving

Coinciding with a SE character or a Nintendo Character
-Geno (possibly gets the deluxe treatment)
-Chocobo Hat
 
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Verde Coeden Scalesworth

Flap and Swish~
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Chance: 90%

Most if not all costumes I'm thinking are returning. This doesn't mean a character among those can't be playable either. Licensing both, and recycling the costumes for reuse with small updates is fine too.

Want: 100%

If I can have all previous content, I'll take it as an option. Having them playable is cool too. I don't see a good reason to cut any costume in itself. The only reason should be "it's harder to license" at best.

Deluxe ones, I could possibly see Geno happen. The rest, not so much. And I don't mean a simple graphical update, but a massive change. The rest are just armor or a hat that has no reason for it.

...I can't think of anything to nominate and I've been absent from this for so long that even stuff I did in the past may have been up. Oh, I guess...

Fulgore x 5 then.
 

Lyncario

Smash Ace
Joined
Dec 3, 2019
Messages
926
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Hell
It's a Mii, costume!

Chances: 93%

Got this score by dividing their individual chanes of returning by 5 once adding up, so there. So, why so high? Well, first of all, Heihachi and Gil both returned with a character not really related to them (you can count Heihachi and Min-Min coming from similar subtypes of fighting games as them having a corelation, though it's not really big and also there's no corelation whatsoever between Gil and Steve). With those 2 having already came back, I really expect Lloyd, Geno, Chocobo, and the Hunter sets to come back sooner or later. And really the only one I would say have an actual good chance to get in as characters out of those are the Hunters, and even then they could come back and have their miis coming along. And this weither there's an anime swordman, capcom, or Sqaure Enix characters in the pass. I could be extremly wrong, but eh, whatever. While 2 occasions repeating aren't a patern, the fact that we got 2 of the missing miis from Sm4sh back in 2 miis costumes dumps out of 2 while there's still 4 mii costumes dumps that will happen in the future, yeah, I'm more or less expecting that a lot now, and I was already expecting that when the Heihachi costume came back.

Want: 35%

Neutral percentage because that would be neat, even if I don't particularly use the dlc mii costumes, not even to do cursed things like, "Sanshead", "Creeper Sans", "Pig Sans", "Whatever-cursed-Sans you can think of of", or any other cursed mii combination, I'm mostly fine with either using a DIO/myself for the brawler, the Sakuya mii I made for swordfighter, and the Marisa mii I made for the gunner. Also I'm not too into the "disconfirmation" train, so I would be a bit sad for their fans, though the fact that I expect them to come back would also make me goo "yeah, though so" if they do end up coming back. Really when the mii costumes are revealed I'm more or less just hoping that Reimu isn't one of them, and that if she is that she at least comes with a good remix, and I could also say the same of most of my other most wanted really.

Nominatios

LoL rep x10
 

waddledeeonredyoshi

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 29, 2014
Messages
1,536
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Drenthe, NL
Geno, Lloyd and Hunter deconfirms
Chance: 20%
I'm confident all costumes will return unless one of them gets upgraded to be a character. Personally, I think the Hunter is pretty likely, Ratholos armor or not.
Lloyd also stands a fair shot. I've expressed my doubts towards Geno and Chocobo just ain't happening. Regardless, not even one of the former three being a character in the pass is something I'm skeptical about.

Want: 75%
We can't have any of these costumes gone for a mysterious reason. I also don't particularly care for any of these characters do I guess I'd be fine with them as costumes for the sake of removing competition for my most wanted. Tho, if the Hunter or Lloyd did make it in I guess I would be fine with it. I might pick up ToS eventually.

Stage: Bowser's castle x5
 

fogbadge

Smash Obsessed
Joined
Jun 29, 2012
Messages
22,658
Location
Scotland
hmmm

chances: 85% i can believe they'll be back. at this point out of the characters theyre based on the only i could see becoming a playable character is the MH which shouldnt be a problem for a mii costume. especially if said mii costume is based on a different set of armour from the character. also i dont see any of them being upgraded to deluxe costumes, why would they when they can just reuse the old ones with a bit of an update. so in short i see no reason why they cant come back but you never know.

want: 10% i mean i might take the chocobo hat but i wouldnt bother with the rest. and even then i didnt redownload the tails costume so i doubt id bother this time. i havent gotten a whole lot of dlc mii costumes this time where as with four i got a fair amount. i guess the vast majority of them dont interest me and im not keen on rebuying ones i bought last time. i do hope we get so better ones mind you.

noms qbby x10 soon
 

Cutie Gwen

Lovely warrior
Joined
Jul 1, 2014
Messages
63,834
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Somewhere out there on this big blue marble
Chance: 100% Yeah I really don't see these end up missing, there's 4 characters left and 4 out of 5 of them are really easy to pair up, the Hunters and the SE costumes, but nothing would really stop Lloyd's costume from happening. The costumes are already finished meaning it's super simple to bring them back, especially as there shouldn't be any difficulty getting the licences again

Want: Abstain, I don't really care about Mii costumes too much to begin with and the characters who we're discussing are mostly meh so I have no stakes here

Velvent Crowe x5
 
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