Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Day 507: Shuichi Saihara (Danganronpa)

GoodGrief741

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My stance on the bonus noms idea is that, at least after a surface analysis, I'm not against it. While I don't necessarily think that people abstaining is a problem, it's good to incentivize more in-depth participation - I mean, that's what this is all about, right? And positive reinforcement rewards those who put in the extra work, while not punishing those who don't want to or can't. I hope. If this results in more people speaking out their asses just to get them extra noms, then we shouldn't be afraid to move back.

I think the bonus noms are a good decision! It provides a good incentive to give a character a chance and encourages more participation.
Out of curiosity, though, whenever I abstain I usually do a mini write-up alongside it that doesn't have ratings but still has my thoughts on a character and their chances in a more compressed format. It usually is at least a paragraph long, so would that count for the bonus noms or for the standard 5? Even if I abstain I still like to give each concept the attention it deserves, even if I don't always have much to say/much energy for a full multi-paragraph write-up like I usually do.
A good solution to this would probably be that people get the bonus noms for meeting the sentence quota, regardless of whether they rate. That would also cover partial abstentions.
 

Pinguino21v

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Rex
Chance: 30%
I believe XC2 time has passed and, according to the DLC standard, I don't think the gameplay Rex could offer would be original enough to get him a slot. Honestly, I would more likely see a binome Pyra/Mythra alone instead, if they are really going XC2 route. But the thing that makes me thinking he won't get in the most is the lack of XCX content. XCX is in a similar spot as was ARMS, in lacking music despite having a good opportunity for a fighter. I perfectly agree to say I'm biased toward Elma, but a dual-blade/dual-gun wielder seems more interesting than Rex, and Nintendo could use this opportunity for a cross-promotion with a potential XCX release on Switch.

Want: 30%
I'm ok with more Xenoblade representation, but Rex isn't the one I want. Rex getting in would mean no Elma, and that would piss me.

Waluigi
Chance: 50%
It's hard to tell where Waluigi stands.
He has pros in being the last of the quartet brothers, being strongly requested, being recognizable. I also strongly believe in Sakurai capability to create a formidable and wacky moveset for this eccentric cheater, stuffs like swimming in the air.
But he also has cons in not bringing with him a new world: hard to get a full DLC package with him, even if I think it's feasible (Waluigi Pinball, new Mario musics, spin-off spirits). He must also fight against Geno as a Mario rep, even if I'm personally thinking Geno won't get in for being owned by SquareEnix.
Do note that I didn't mention his AT status. That's because it's a non-issue.

Want: 80%
I want him both because he is a funny character I like, and because I'm very curious how Sakurai could make him a fighter.

Giving my nominations to Thrall.
 
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SharkLord

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I do not understand why so many people find this unlikely.
For me, it's mostly that he doesn't really have a series to be tied down to, or at least a specific game. So far, all the DLC has been themed around a specific series or game, and the main character easily fits in with the theme by virtue of being the protagonist. With supporting characters like, say, Bandana Dee, Impa, or Waluigi himself, this link is stretched since they're not the main character, and so they aren't as closely tied to their series/game and everything in it. Waluigi would have Waluigi Pinball, that much I know, but he wouldn't have much in terms of Spirits and songs. Heck, the Waluigi Pinball theme is already in the game. Generally the DLC has been representing new games or series that, at the very least, had very little representation, while Waluigi would only really represent himself.
 

TCT~Phantom

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Day Over

Today is the purge, but to lighten the mood we wanted to do something a bit different for people. We considered a few different ideas for the milestone, but we settled on a bit of a change of pace. What do you guys think are the most underrated and overrated characters? Explain your top five for each. We did these threadwide in the past, but this one is just for fun. We will take a tally and see who is the most overrated and underrated overall, but it is just for fun and not for any future rerates. Also we did top 5 instead of 3 for day 500

Also on the docket is the change to the abstain process.

Here is the current rule: Posts lacking at least 2 sentences in reasoning of chance and want will be invalid and your scores and nominations will be ignored. Abstaining from a rating will not require reasoning, though it would be appreciated.

Here would be the revised rule: Posts lacking at least 2 sentences in reasoning of chance and want will be invalid and your scores and nominations will be ignored. Abstaining from a rating will not require reasoning, though it would be appreciated. If your post is at paragraph for each score, then you will get five extra noms.

If you want the rules change, vote yes. If not, vote no.

Also since it is a fresh start, x10 noms today.
 
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SharkLord

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...Are we sure this is gonna end well? I feel like this is an argument in the making.

I'll give my thoughts anyways, but I need time to prepare. I'll need to grab a fire extinguisher, a shield, a suit of armor, and a portable wall. And just for safe keeping, I won't even do it in person. I'll just communicate by drone.
 

TCT~Phantom

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Overrated

5. Bandana Dee

This is no animosity towards Dee, if anything I think he still has a decent chance of getting in, at least for a first party. But I am using Dee as my focal point of how I am bullish on first parties most of the time. Dee at least has a switch game he stars in sort of in Star Allies and is popular in Japan. But many people act like since Spirits no longer are the death knell, Dee is quite likely. I would put him around a 30% on a good day.

4. Doomguy

Honestly, the interviews hurt him more and more as time goes on. We know Bethesda is buddy buddy with Nintendo, but nowadays with interviews that seem bad happening for his chances twice, I no longer think he is quite likely. Obviously I would love to be wrong, Doom is great. But I do not think I would bet on Doomguy even as an outside chance. I like Doom even. Doomguy is a character I would enjoy in smash, at least for the soundtrack. But this is how overrated they can be in terms of how often you see them pop up on expectations. So, yeah...

3. Master Chief

This one honestly feels to me like a pipe dream. The idea of getting Master Chief into smash would honestly be super cool, but I do not think it will happen. Chief at least has Microsoft playing nice, but even then I do not think it is enough. If the Master Chief collection got a switch port, I would be more lenient towards Chief. Right now though, if we get more Microsoft content I would say it is Minecraft or bust. I would honestly love Chief in Smash. Halo has a great soundtrack and would be an awesome way to show of an FPS in smash. But Chief is far from someone I would call likely.

2. Shantae

While Spirits are no longer a death knell, people seem to think that makes Shantae not dead in the water. To me, the fact that as a third party she got a spirit in the base game seems to me like a big red flag. It feels like an acknowledgement to her fans and supporters that yes, she is not making it, but look she is in the game kind of. She even got shown off in the WoL trailer as a spirit if my memory serves me right. But Shantae for me is one of those characters I feel safe actively betting won't get into Smash.

1. Waluigi

I wrote an entire write up on Waluigi yesterday, but I will paraphrase it for today. I think assist trophies are dead in the water unless major shilling could occur. I think that his fan demand came too late and is a very vocal minority. I do not see Nintendo really seeing value in adding him to promote any Mario spin offs. I think if this was for Smash 6 or Smash Ultimate Director's cut on the Switch2, I would say he is very likely. But for DLC? No way. Yes I am biased because I have disliked the character for years and do not want a joke pick in Smash (Yes the twitter "Outcry" made him into a joke), but I would genuinely be surprised if he got in.

Honorable Mentions for overrated: Geno, Rayman, Lloyd Irving, Dixie Kong

Underrated.

5. Heavy

The fact TF2 was popular during the ballot and Heavy still shows up in Smash polls makes me think that he could be a genuine outside shot. Obviously far from a lock, but something that I think people do not give enough credit for. TF2, in spite of all the **** it has had to go through from bots to content droughts to economic woes, is still not dead. Heck, TF2 is still in the top ten most played games on steam today. And it is 13 years old and has not gotten a major update since 2017. The fact the community still is alive and well says wonders, and I bet that community could have made an impact on the ballot.

4. Dragapult

I said my piece on the Pokemon day, but to repeat, this thing is getting slept on. Placing that high on an official poll when they likely would have just set a placeholder for Gen 8 is no joke. Yes it has competition with Toxtricity and Cinderace. Yes the spirit event is not the greatest thing in the world. But people think this thing is behind Intelleon, and that is not right man.

3. Sol Badguy

The Arc Sys spirits is something that has caught me off guard. If the Doomguy stuff did not have as many bad interviews I would probs put him around Sol's chances. The fact that Arc Sys is a regular supporter for Nintendo helps him a ton. I know Ragna or something else could happen, but if we get Arc Sys we are getting Guilty Gear.

2. Layton

Most ballot characters tend to get the nod for speculation often, but Layton seems to be the odd man out. He had such a strong ballot push. His fanbase still exists, albeit not as vocal as during the ballot. Level 5 play nice with Nintendo. So... why do most people kind of count him out? The best explanation I have is the Layton series is in a lull, but I doubt it will be that way soon. I honestly expect ports of the IOS versions of the first three games coming to the switch next year. Overall, this is one I genuinely am surprised does not get brought up more.

1. Neku

I am biased but the fact Nintendo made TWEWY a headline game in a direct is super weird to me. The fact that Nintendo and Square both seem to want to push TWEWY now is something I can not overlook. I put him around 35%, but honestly people really sleep on Neku. I rarely see his name brought up, and if it is people bring up Sora (even though Sora is owned by Disney). Overall, an actual sleeper choice that I can see getting in.

Honorable Mentions for Underrated: Amaterasu, Chosen Undead, Sephiroth, Akira Howard

...Are we sure this is gonna end well? I feel like this is an argument in the making.

I'll give my thoughts anyways, but I need time to prepare. I'll need to grab a fire extinguisher, a shield, a suit of armor, and a portable wall. And just for safe keeping, I won't even do it in person. I'll just communicate by drone.
Well it is all opinion, make sure you are basing this stuff on them getting in the game and less on your own opinions, although individual biases do show it is inevitable.

Just making sure... we are rating characters that are not in Smash yet people speculate, right?
Yes.
 
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Lyncario

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I'll write something tomorow, when I'll have acess to my computer rather than just my phone since typing stuff on Smashboards is a pain on mobile, and I kinda want to write a lot for that topic.
 

Swamp Sensei

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This actually seems interesting. I'll try to write something today.
 

DanganZilla5

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I vote yes. A paragraph means at least 5 sentences, correct?

And to be clear, the character I'm nominating today won't get purged right? I'm asking as it's a new character not on the noms list and I don't want it to get purged after this day is over.


Underrated
  • Bill Rizer: People always bring up Ryu Hayabusa as the last NES icon, but barely anyone brings up Contra, despite it being a notable game for the console. Contra is a popular series with plenty of Nintendo history and it influenced future side scrolling shooters like Metal Slug. It's also owned by Konami who seems to be rather generous if the gigantic amount of Castlevania content is anything to go by and I think Bill is their frontrunner. Overall, he just seems like the type of character that Sakurai might push (I know Nintendo is choosing the characters but Sakurai's input still matters). Sure, Rogue Corps didn't do well, but that doesn't take away the series' legacy.
  • Dovahkiin/Dragonborn: I did an entire write write up for his day a while ago but I will summarize my points. Skyrim was the first Western game to get a perfect score on Famitsu, it was one of the first games shown off for the Switch, The Elder Scrolls is a popular franchise that helped popularize open world games, Skyrim has built up a legacy and is still being talked about to this day, and Bethesda is buddy buddy with Nintendo. Dragonborn also has some really cool and unique spells like summoning the dead to fight for him and he can switch between dual wield melee weapons, using one heavy weapon, using both hands for magic spells, or use a melee weapon and magic at the same time. So with Doomguy seemingly out of the running due to the interview, I'd argue that Dragonborn is our top Bethesda rep and is within the top 5 most likely western characters. Yet despite all these positives, people seem to brush him off for some reason.
  • Lara Croft: Maybe she is not underrated in this thread as we saw with her scores, but definitely in other parts of SmashBoards and across the internet, people seem to disregard her. Even though Tomb Raider is Square Enix's best selling series behind Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest and Lara Croft is the most iconic female video game character (aside from maybe Chun Li). I'm guessing people see her as generic and not able to bring anything new to the table, despite the fact that she does have unique moveset potential with all the mythical objects and survival equipment she has used throughout the series. But really, if Smash wants to truly be the greatest video game crossover of all time, someone like Lara Croft would reinforce that statement.
  • Axel Stone: People seem to be starting to take Kiryu seriously, plus I don't know much about Yakuza so I will be talking about another Sega series that people are sleeping on too: Streets of Rage. An influential series that is the staple of the beat em up genre and was one of the flagship titles for the Sega Genesis. Even since then, there have been many Sega compilations on Nintendo systems that contain the Streets of Rage games. Not only that, but Streets of Rage 4 was recently released on Switch. So Nintendo has a financial reason to include Axel Stone and Sakurai would be attracted by Street's of Rage's legacy. This series just doesn't get the recognition it deserves, at least from what I've seen in the Smash community.
  • Nightmare: Maybe not as underrated as the other characters I've talked about, but one thing that a lot of people seem to believe in is a certain mentality with Bamco: "Lloyd or bust." I don't agree with this mentality. Sure, Tales Of is easily Bamco's most likely franchise to get a playable character next, but remember that bigger series don't always get in first. Soul Calibur is a long-running series and the first game was actually very popular for its time as the graphics and animations were detailed and smooth for the time. While the fifth game nearly killed the series, the most recent game, Soul Calibur 6, has been doing very well for itself and is still getting DLC to this day. There are other things of note, such as Soul Calibur 2 being on the GameCube and having Link in it and the fact that heihachi is dead so that is a competitor out of the way. Overall, I just think that people might be sleeping on this series just a tad.
Honorable mentions: Chosen Undead, Sephiroth, Gordon Freeman, Frank West, Maxwell, Ezio

Overrated

Is it ok if I don't have 5 for this one? I can think of plenty of characters that are underrated, but when it comes to being overrated? There is only character that stands out to me.
  • 2B: I can see the argument for her. Her situation is similar to Joker: She comes from a game in a niche series that broke out into the mainstream and is a game that Sakurai enjoyed. But I just can't see her happening. At least with Joker, Shin Megami Tensei is a Nintendo mainstay and Persona had the Q games. None of the games in 2B's franchise are on Nintendo. Could she be announced alongside a port of Automata coming to Switch? Sure. But right now I think people have been giving her a little too much credit, especially when there are other Square games like TWEWY that would appeal to Nintendo more.
Honorable mention goes to KOS-MOS. There is a small group of people that overrate her, albeit it is only a minority. I feel like the majority of people realize that she has a very low chance.

Edit: Another honorable (or dishonorable?) mention for overrated is Tails. Just because I think his Mii costume deconfirms him, yet a lot of people gave him scores in the 20s all the way up to the 40s or even 50s if I remember correctly.


Noms: Klonoa x10

Predictions: Non video game character mii costume - 0.50% (This is going to be real interesting. I do think there is one timeline where this could happen and I'll explain it when the time comes.)
 
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Perkilator

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EDIT: We're supposed to vote? In that case, sure.

Alright, I'm gonna list some options that might be controversial. Viewer Discretion (or at least some civil feedback) is advised.

Top 5 Overrated
  • #5: Rillaboom (Pokemon Gen VIII)
    • I'm pretty neutral on Rillaboom myself. It's moreso that people only want it to fill a Grass-type starter quota that was technically already filled by :ultivysaur:.
  • #4: Spring Man (ARMS)
    • Nothing against the guy, I love him as a character. He's moreso "overrated" in the sense that people can't accept that Assist Trophies don't get promoted in the same game as being an Assist Trophy (hence the reason I pined for :ultminmin).
  • #3: Geno (Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars)
    • I've never played SMRPG, so I've no personal attachment to him. I just simply wanna see more support for characters other than him.
  • #2: Master Chief (Halo)
    • I understand that he's an important gaming figure, but he's never made a true appearance on a Nintendo console. Halo was going to get a DS game, but that got canned, so I'm pretty sure it doesn't count.
  • #1: Waluigi
    • Again, nothing against him or his fans. I just find him "overrated" for the same reason as Spring Man.
  • Honorable mention: Urshifu (Isle of Armor)
    • SharkLord SharkLord Did all the ripping for me (at least, towards the people who only talk about Urshifu because promotions). So I'm not gonna rip and tear any further.
Top 5 Reasonably Rated
  • #5: Crash Bandicoot
    • He's an iconic character who was on multiplatform long before his hiatus from 2008-2017 (for better or worse). At this point, I don't see Vol. 2 ending without him (not denying that, hypothetically, it could).
  • #4: Sora (Kingdom Hearts)
    • Disney could be a roadblock. but they still did say they were okay with it. Plus, KH3 made the series mainstream enough that even casual gamers who played it might recognize him if and when he gets announced.
  • #3: Bandana Dee (Kirby)
    • His fans can get annoying, yes, but the demand is pretty justified. The fact that Ultimate barely has any modern Kirby content is a little sad, so hopefully Dee can fix all that. Plus, he'd "complete" the quartet the Return to Dream Land established.
  • #2: Rex (Xenoblade Chronicles 2) don't tell Cutie Gwen Cutie Gwen
    • May have been too late for base game consideration, but being Spirited and Mii'd shouldn't be much of a roadblock, if any. Personally, Rex seems like a natural fit for Vol. 2 since ARMS also got that luxury.
  • #1: Dixie Kong (Donkey Kong Country)
    • Like Bandana Dee, she'd be all that's needed to properly "complete" the Donkey Kong series' roster. Anything else is just a cool bonus.
  • Honorable mention: Rayman
    • I don't think it's unreasonable to want Rayman back just to give him some genuine time in the spotlight again. Ain't that right, Ubisoft?
Top 5 Underrated (more of a wishlist from me)
  • #5: Sakura Shinguji (Sakura Wars)
    • It's a pretty big series in Japan, especially for one that's only sold 4.5 million units in total. You can have your Arles and your Kiryus, but Sakura's just as logical a choice as any, IMO. Plus, Smash lacks a proper samurai-like character on the playable roster (sorry, Lyn).
  • #4: Chosen Undead (Dark Souls)
    • Bandai-Namco's current best-selling franchise (thanks mainly to Dark Souls 3), and yet the Smash community doesn't even give it the time of day. I understand concerns about translating Dark Souls gameplay to Smash, but Source Gaming might convince you otherwise. It certainly convinced me.
  • #3: Dig Dug (or, as he's better known, Taizo Hori)
    • Another iconic Namco IP that people sweep under the rug because it's not Lloyd or Heihachi or KOS-MOS. There's plenty of potential that a fellow arcade star could bring (and don't laugh, because we know Sakurai isn't gonna go for you-know-what).
  • #2: Scorbunny (Pokemon Gen VIII)
    • Remember when I placed Rillaboom in overrated? That doesn't mean I don't want a Pokemon at all. I mainly want Scorbunny because it'd be interesting as a tiny soccer player-type character. Plus, it's bunny. And bunnies are cute. Therefore, it's too cute to not be in Smash.
  • #1: Ring Fit Trainee (Ring Fit Adventure)
    • Yeah, it got Spirited, who cares? It's still a game I massively enjoyed since I got it for Christmas 2019 and poured literally hours into. Contrary to popular belief, Trainee themselves would be greatly different from :ultwiifittrainer: from the Ring alone.
  • Honorable mention: Euden (Dragalia Lost)
    • I feel like he's tossed aside by speculation because he's from a mobile game. If Dragalia Lost got a Switch port, I'd like to hope that more people take the idea seriously. Because Dragalia Lost is a genuinely good game.
Noms:
Xion as Sora's Echo x5
Sakura Shinguji x5
 
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SharkLord

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Welp, here we go. Please don't make me regret not abstaining...

Most Underrated Characters

5-Isaac.
He's a consistently popular request, and he's got a series behind him to supply him with content. It helps that new, non-renewal trademarks have been filed recently, with the first new trademark being turned down twice before finally passing in March. Obviously, not every new release necessarily equated to Smash, but this at least shows that Nintendo's considering something with Golden Sun. I think the biggest help is the outcry at him being relegated to an AT, so Nintendo knows for sure how big he is. Sure, Waluigi has that too, but he's just Waluigi, without any game or series to back him up. Besides, Waluigi is still talked about a fair bit, so he's not really underrated. Still, Isaac is held back by the big question mark that is Assist Trophies, which could go either way after the whole Min Min/Spring Man thing.

4-Sakura Shinguji. Let's see here... Massive popularity from Japanese critics and fans alike, tops polls of revival interest and brand investment, and has been adapted into just about every form of media, including a themed cafe and 25 stage shows. Yeah, Japan loves Sakura Wars. To elaborate on the above point, the poll was held in 2016. Sakura Wars topped both revival interest and overall brand investment, with the former including Jet Set Radio among others as competition, and the latter beating out more discussed titles like Sonic the Hedgehog, Puyo Puyo, and Yakuza. Sure, Sonic isn't as big in Japan, but it doesn't change the fact that Sakura Wars had the most brand investment of the company, even in it's dormancy. The main reason I don't rate her higher is the fact that A: Even though the latest game got localized, Sakura Wars is still mainly Japan-centric, and B: Just because she's important to Sega doesn't mean Nintendo thinks the same way. I think it's a 50/50 split depending on if Nintendo wants an intense but limited appeal or a thinner but more widely-spread appeal.

3-Reimu Hakurei. Hoo boy, remember when I rated her at 80%? In hindsight, probably a bit too high. Still, I'm sticking with her until the end. Reimu is in a similar spot as Sakura, being big in Japan but comparatively more niche in the West. That being said, I think she has more going for her than Sakura. The main thing, I think is her indie status. Nintendo has been really supportive of indies as of late, and Smash has been slowly but surely adding more indie content. I can understand why some people might be hesitant on indies when even SANS U N D E R T A L E himself got Mii'd, but something I think is noteworthy is that all the indie content so far has been Western creations that became popular in the 2010's. The Touhou Project, on the other hand, is a Japanese game series that has been around since the 90's and became popular in the 2000's. I'm thinking (Or hoping) that Reimu's different situation and merits would be enough to get her a spot on the roster.
The other major point going for her is the sheer amount of fan content Touhou has. It has fangames, honestly really good fanmade anime, a ludicrous amount of fan remixes (60 to 200 covers on average) to the point that some songs surpass the original in popularity, and it dominated conventions so much that it had to get it's own annually-held convention in the form of Reisaitai just to give other series a chance. There isn't any other series that really has that.
I also think it's worth mentioning that Touhou isn't Japan-exclusive. There are twelve games on Steam as of the time of writing, and while only one is actually translated, that's because ZUN is aware that the fans will do it for him, which arguably gives more credence to Touhou popularity. Besides, we've had some character that are more popular in one region than the other throughout Smash's history, such as Marth, Little Mac, Dark Pit, Ridley, Simon, Hero, and Terry, just to name a few.
The main things that hold her back is that generally, indies and more niche series are going to be the underdogs, and the next two coming up are more mainstream, which makes their sleeper status that much more astonishing. That, and I want to avoid getting slammed for bias.

2-The Chosen Undead (Or some other Dark Souls rep). We went over this when we rated him, but I think that got overshadowed by the KOS-MOS discussions. Dark Souls spawned an entire genre out of sheer difficulty alone, and became a unit of measurement for difficulty. I've seen some people dismiss it because it "wouldn't translate well into Smash," but we managed to get people like Marth, Snake, Isabelle, and a %$#@ing Piranha Plant in a pot. Hypothetical movesets should not be used to determine likelihood. That being said, Lloyd is still a likely candidate, which gives a Dark Souls rep some competition. The next one, on the other hand...

1-Lara Croft. We got the two JRPG juggernauts, and Lara's both an iconic character and the next-best selling franchise left, being only four million short of Dragon Quest. It's surprising that she doesn't get more attention. Personally, I don't think any of the arguments given against her are really big obstacles.
"Western reps are less likely!" We got Banjo and Kazooie. While we probably won't get more than two more Western characters at best, it wouldn't surprise me if Lara was the one Western character who gets added, especially considering how she's owned by a Japanese company as well.
"There's more popular requests from the Smash fandom!" Yeah, but did that stop Joker from coming over Arle? Or Hero over Sora or Geno? "But Dragon Quest is iconic! It had to go first" And so is Lara. She's considered the leading lady of video games, and as mentioned above, she's only four million short of Dragon Quest's sales. In an interview, it was stated that Tomb Raider is and will remain an important pillar for Square Enix.
Given how big Tomb Raider is, I find it legitimately shocking how little Tomb Raider is discussed.

Honorable mentions include the Prince of Persia, Bill Razer, Neku Sakuraba, the Dragonborn, and a Bravely rep.

As for the overrates? Hoo boy... Y'know what? I posted these earlier, but I'm just gonna delete them. "Overrated" lists exist for the sole sake of ****ing on certain characters and I regret partaking in it.

Anyways, my nomination:

Klonoa x10

EDIT: Ah, we're supposed to vote on the paragraph thing? If so, I vote yes.
 
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BowserKing

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I do not want to do the overrated ones, because last time that happened, it went downhill from there, and that is why I avoid saying who is overrated.

Underrated characters on the other hand, I’m choosing that.

5. Ray (Custom Robo). Ray was only an Assist in Brawl, and mostly disappeared until Ultimate, as a Mii Costume and Spirit, which I saw surprising. While his chance is rather low, and he is quite obscure, he would make a great fighter for this game, with decent potential as well.

4. Elma (Xenoblade X). It’s clear that Rex and Pyra are Moreno likely to be playable then Elma is, which is not even a fair chance. I honestly think Elma would be a better choice for a Second Xenoblade Rep and it also would be nice to have Xenoblade X music as well.

3. Dragapult (Pokémon Sword and Shield). Dragapult is very popular in the Pokémon games, but is needing more of a chance in Smash Bros. Dragapult has some deadly moves, a great design and it’s both a ghost type and dragon type Pokémon, both of which would be great for Smash.

2. Sephiroth (Final Fantasy 7). Let’s face it, Final Fantasy in underrepresented in Smash Bros, and it’s rather upsetting that the 2 Cloud spirits are the only Final Fantasy spirits in the game. If Sephiroth joined Smash, even if he is not playable, would be a great choice to represent Final Fantasy more. Also a third party villain would be a great choice as well, since we need more villains in Smash Bros.

1. Porky (Mother). In a rather surprising case, Porky is not even in this game, not even as a spirit, which is rather unfortunate since he was a boss in Subspace emissary. I would like it if Porky joined Smash so we can have another villain in the roaster, as well as another Mothser character, and even if he does not become playable, ther is always the chance he could return as a boss.

These are my underrated choices. I would like to include Pokéball Pokémon promotion, but I’ll use it in case of complaints.

Noms: 5 for Echo: Dark Bowser (14E)
 
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fogbadge

Smash Legend
Joined
Jun 29, 2012
Messages
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is there a definition for what the shortest length for counting as a paragraph?

anyway
overrated
Waluigi: his popularity for smash does not seem to extend as much as it does to other things. requests to see him in main series games and such dont seem to nearly as the big or persistent.
Geno: much the same as waluigi his popularity seems to be only for smash. barely anyones asking for him to be in the spin offs, not even the ones made by the people who own him.
dante: to me this guy is the embodiment of overrated. there is nothing special about him as a character or his games.
Steve: i do not get what anyone sees in minecraft. its clearly made for people more patent than me.
Masterchief: how is this guy still popular? how much of a pedestal does everyone have those games on?

underrated
Chibi-Robo: truly a hidden gem among nintendos series. i think his games were written off to easily and as such hes written off to easily for how great hed be in smash.
Toad: feels like most people are to focused on waluigi and geno to give him a fair shot. to many people write him off for reasons that would apply to characters on the roster.
Yo-Kai watch: barely anyone over here gave the games a chance. people were to busy thinking it was a pokemon clone to really see what it actually was.
Qbby: i dont think people give him a fair chance, perhaps because he has no arms, even though sakurai said he was fine puting in a character without arms or legs. like the others this is a character with lots of potential that people ignore.
any SE character: you all need to get over the fact that cloud came with barely anything. none of us know the real reason.
 

waddledeeonredyoshi

Smash Lord
Joined
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Messages
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Duwang
My bias will likely be greatly showing, especiaally since the characters in my overrated top 5 are from games I haven't played.

Overrated

5. Phoenix Wright: To this day, Phoenix as a fighter in Smash is just something I literally cannot imagine and MvC3 changes nothing about. Nothing personel but it's just an unpopular opinion of mine. His moveset just doesn't seem as obvious as fellow Capcom rep Dante who has a crap ton of things to work with. I just think the Crazy Pizza guy is likelier for that reason along with DmC probably being more mainstream as well as Sakurai and Kamiya being budds.

4. Master Chief: When it comes to more MS I think Steve is next in line, not Chief. Minecraft has worldwide appeal and Nintendo presence, things Halo lacks. And it's also bigger than Halo at that. I'm not so sure on more MS representation anyhow but I'd really doubt it would be Chief.

3. Shantae: While basegame Spirits no longer disconfirm Shantae just doesn't feel ripe for an upgrade. The two Spirits her series has feel satisfactory enough for a dev like Way Forward. I think her fan suppord from Smash 4 is the reason why they're even there to begin with so I don't see it mattering today. There are still other viable Indie characters to go with.

2. SwSh Pokemon: Pokemon is huge but is it huge enough to bend the rules of Spirit events supposedly disconfirming? Timing is important and it would contradict the situation that happened with Three Houses so I don't see why. Even pretending that event didn't happen, I still wouldn't call it guaranteed. I get that TPC can be a ***** but I dunno, maybe there's some behind the scenes stuff that would prevent a Pokemon DLC fighter. Unlike Fire Emblem, Pokemon wasn't shilled back during Smash 4 DLC to base our synicism of. By the way, is it even okay for not choosing a specific mon here? If it isn't than you can just go with Urshifu. Seems very flavour of the month and they likely wouldn't go for a DLC exclusive Pokemon.

1. Geno: Self explanitory. Some certain people see him as a "when" rather than "if" when it really should be an "if". His chances ride on a set of fake leaks and coincidences called "evidence" rather than his own merrits. I just think Geno fails in the area where it matters most. Being cared about both the company that owns him as well as the company that would have to choose him.

Underrated top 5 coming later. Maybe. No promises.

Deltarune content x10
 
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SharkLord

Smash Champion
Joined
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Messages
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Location
Pangaea, 250 MYA
dante: to me this guy is the embodiment of overrated. there is nothing special about him as a character or his games.
Steve: i do not get what anyone sees in minecraft. its clearly made for people more patent than me.
Masterchief: how is this guy still popular? how much of a pedestal does everyone have those games on?
You're really gonna go there, huh? Welp, here we go.
Devil May Cry is the embodiment of cool. It invented the modern beat-'em-up genre, it gives you the most stupidly awesome weapons possible, it takes the horrors of Resident Evil and lets you shred them all to pieces in the coolest way possible while epic rock music blares in the background. You can have opinions, but when you say with utmost certainty that there's nothing cool about Devil May Cry... Yeah.
Minecraft is indeed a game about patience. You can create towering buildings and massive cities, set up custom maps, and put together unique and creative mods. Obviously you're going to need patience; Anything big you commit to takes time. It helps that a lot of us, me included, hold a lot of nostalgia for the olden days when Minecraft was everywhere.
Halo is the Xbox game, the first-person shooter of the 2000's. This was a huge part of people's childhoods (Not including mine, though), and it's been ingrained into the minds of many a gamer. This is a massive part of some gamer's lives; Of course they're gonna put it on a pedestal.
 
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cashregister9

Smash Ace
Joined
Apr 4, 2020
Messages
703
Underrated:

5: Estelle Bright/Rean Schwarzer - The Trails games are really good In japan they are more popular than Ys and they have been gaining popularity in Japan. Not to mention that the characters would play very interestingly

4: Saber - Fate is a popular series with one of the most iconic characters to internet culture and not to mention is the swordfighter

3 Sakura Amamiya/Shinguji - Sakura Wars is quite large all things considered Shinguji is super iconic in Japan and Amamiya is the new hotness within the Sakura Wars series and I can't shake the feeling that they have a good chance.

2: Kiryu Kazuma - The Yakuza series is more popular worldwide than SEGA probably expected after the release of Yakuza 0 so it would make sense that SEGA would choose my man Kiryu

1: Reimu Hakurei - I cannot shake the feeling that one of the most popular Japanese indie game characters might get into smash


Overrated: (Seriously no hard feelings this is just my opinion)

5: Rillaboom and Urshifu - Rillaboom seems to only be wanted because a lot of people want a playable Grass starter with a good chunk of people who genuinely want Rillaboom being lost in the shuffle. The actual overrated character to me is Urshifu a character that only seems to be talked about because "Pokemon bad" a character from an expansion that will be outdated in like a month or 2.

4: Bandanna Waddle Dee - I like this round boy but I see no universe where they are added as a paid character I don't see what unique thing they could bring to the table besides being a Modern Kirby character and having a spear.

3: Waluigi - Waluigi is a character who has one of the most rabbid fanbases out there, Ignoring the more hostile people it seems a lot of people only want him because he is the funny purple man. also Waluigi has nothing he can call his own honestly kind of making him a tragic figure in the Mario universe but when it comes to smash he has barely anything brand new to bring.

2: Geno - I still don't get Geno people use that Sakurai quote that i'm not even sure still holds water

1: Isaac - I have beef with this character to make a long rant short when it comes to Golden Sun characters Felix is the more interesting protagonist and even though Banjo was also "Irrelevant" at the time Banjo also had a nostalgic resurgence and was also probably the most asked for character of all time. I do feel for Golden Sun fans because weird timing always seems to screw them over in the end.

this goes for all my overrated characters I don't want to insult anyone and if one of those characters gets in I hope they are happy with them
 

Mr. MR

Smash Cadet
Joined
Sep 5, 2011
Messages
46
Now’s my chance! Remember, these are just my opinions and this is my milk crate. Now for the hot takes.

Underrated:

1. Lu Bu/Dynasty Warriors Rep


I think this series has a really good chance for a roster spot. First off, I think the idea that characters inspired by real life people 1800 years ago keeps people from rating this series as likely for Smash. At this point the characters from Dynasty Warriors are very much videogame characters who could only exist in videogames. The reason why I think this series has a chance comes from the fact that we have now three Nintendo Musou spinoff games with the recent announcement of Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity. It seems like a good time to add one too considering its Dynasty Warriors’ 20th anniversary. We currently lack a Koei Tecmo character and most people think it will be Ryu Hayabusa but I feel like Dynasty Warriors has an equal if not more of a chance. I am going to squeeze in my crackpot theory that we will be getting a reveal this month. Tokyo Game Show is coming up and more info on the new Hyrule Warriors game will be revealed at the same time on the 26th. The Dynasty Warriors 20th anniversary livestream is also during TGS and it’s on the 27th. TGS seems like the perfect time for a character reveal and I think Dynasty Warriors has the best chance for the next reveal. But I also understand that I am overreaching on this prediction and there’s a lot of complicated factors in game development and marketing. If we get to the Lu Bu day I’ll explain why I think Lu Bu will be the Dynasty Warriors rep and why I want him.

2. Monster Hunter

The reason why I think it’s underrated is because it already has content in Smash (two music tracks and the boss Rathalos) and we already have two Capcom playable characters in Smash not counting Ken as an echo. Firstly, I think the fact that we already have Monster Hunter content in the game gives the Hunter a better chance to be included if another Capcom character is announced. Monster Hunter is big in Japan and fairly popular everywhere else. As a result, Monster Hunter has placed high in Japan’s most requested character list and Monster Hunter World (which is still getting new content with Fatalis coming in October) is currently the most sold Capcom game. IMO Monster Hunter is on the top for the next Capcom character (all though Resident Evil is close behind tho I don’t think it’s a good fit for Smash). Also, Monster Hunter is known for its many weapon classes which all play differently and all of them could be its own moveset in Smash. There’s a lot of ideas to pull from when it comes to Monster Hunter.

3. Ezio

Ubisoft needs a character and its between him and Rayman. The reason why I think Ubisoft needs a character is because they already have a lot of content in the game already. Ubisoft is slowly infiltrating Smash like a trained assassin with spirits, mii costumes, and Nintendo crossovers. I would be surprised if we don’t get a Ubisoft character at this point. So why Assassin’s Creed and not Ubisoft’s own mascot Rayman? Assassin’s Creed is Ubisoft’s black flagship franchise and its most popular franchise. The Ubisoft of today (for better or worse) exists because of Assassin’s Creed. I don’t even know if Ubisoft even likes Rayman the same way it loves Assassin’s Creed. They claim Rayman is their mascot but the Rayman franchise is nowhere near as iconic or lucrative as Assassin’s Creed. It seems every other game references Assassin’s Creed or has content from it so here’s a quick list: Witcher 2, Goat Simulator, Infamous 2, Hitman: Absolution, Saints Row 3, Dead Island, Team Fortress 2, LEGO Lord of the Rings, Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker, Final Fantasy XIII-2, Soulcalibur V and there’s probably others I’m missing. Rayman is more Nintendo friendly than an assassin but I think Ezio is far more relevant and iconic. What was also strange was we got an Assassin's Creed Mii costume but they labeled it as a crossover of Smash and Altair. My theory is that they are saving the Smash x Assassin's Creed logo for Ezio. I would explain why I think Ezio will get in over the other assassins but I’ll do that on Ezio rerate day.

4. Urshifu

TBH I don’t want Urshifu but I think he has a better chance than what most people would give him. My farfetch’d theory is the Pokémon Company design him for the purpose of Smash because he seems like a great fit. He’s a Pokémon designed like a fighting game character with two different forms that would be a great mechanic for a new Fighter Pass character. He has a whole DLC focused around him which makes him a perfect Gen 8 inclusion. What tips it over the edge for me is Byleth getting in because of Three Houses. Everyone complains about all the Fire Emblem characters in Smash (currently at 6 non-echoes and 8 including echoes). Pokémon currently has 8 characters and 10 if you include each Pokémon in Pokémon Trainer as separate. With Pokémon being the most lucrative franchise of all time so far I wouldn’t be surprised to get a Pokémon in this Fighter Pass.

5. Hornet (Hollow Knight)

This is a character I don’t think will be in Smash as playable but I think would be the best choice for an indie inclusion. When it comes to Hornet the obvious question is why her over the titular Knight? Firstly, I think she would play and flow better than the Knight. Secondly, it’s up to Team Cherry/Sakurai/Nintendo to decide if they would rather have Hornet over the Knight. Lastly, she has an upcoming game that is semi-exclusive on the Switch (PC being the other one). Not to mention her game was demoed by Nintendo Treehouse, so Nintendo has taken interest in the franchise. We currently don’t have a release date on Silksong and my hope is that they are waiting on Nintendo for the big reveal. As I said, I don’t think she will get included as playable because so many indie characters have fallen like Sans and Shovel Knight (and maybe Shantae), but I think we will get something like a spirit, mii costume or perhaps an Assist Trophy.

Honorable Mentions: A Tekken Character, LEGO representation



I’ll keep this short because I don’t want to die.

Overrated Characters:

5. Geno

This one I’m conflicted on. I think he does have a good chance based on fan demand, but if that’s the only thing keeping him relevant I think he’s a bit overrated.

4. Gen 8 Pokémon other than Urshifu

This is your Cinderace, Rillaboom, Toxtricty, ect. Despite the fact I don’t want another Pokémon in Smash, I think Urshifu has the best chance compared to anything else from Gen 8. I explain my reasoning up in the underrated characters. I do think that a non-Urshifu Pokémon character could get into Smash but right now I think Urshifu leads the pack.

3. Ryu Hayabusa

I’m probably going to get flak for this. I think he faces more competition for his Koei Tecmo spot than people realize from Dynasty Warriors. Ryu Hayabusa does have an NES legacy but Ninja Gaiden isn’t as close to Nintendo as the Musou series is and Dynasty Warriors beats Ninja Gaiden in both popularity and profitability. I don’t think his chances are zero but I do believe he has a good chance. I just think Dynasty Warriors will give him a run for his money.

2. Dixie Kong

Donkey Kong managed to get a new character in Ultimate and it was not her. If she is to be included in Ultimate it will be on the fighter pass and she will compete for one of the five remaining spots. Assuming one or two of those spots will be a Nintendo character, her competition is way to fierce even on the Nintendo side. I think there are a lot more characters farther in the running than her.

1. Waluigi

I don’t think Waluigi’s chances are low because I dislike him (I’m somewhere between indifferent and minorly dislikes). I think his chances are low because he doesn’t have a franchise to back him up. When it comes to Mario characters he faces stiff competition, mainly Paper Mario and Captain Toad. Until Waluigi gets his own game or starts to feature more prominently, I think his chances will be forever low.

Noms: Lu Bu x10
Vote: Yes on the paragraph gets extra noms

Prediction Non-videogame Mii Costume: 3.15%

I think the best chances are a LEGO Mii Costume.
 
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Cutie Gwen

Lovely warrior
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Messages
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Somewhere out there on this big blue marble
Hahaha holy **** this is basically a top 5 for who you don't want pretending to be smarter. I'd have gone for a top 5 most wanted because a least wanted/overrated just causes hostility in of itself, whether it's someone being petty about not liking a character refusing to get a reality check and spewing false claims they won't correct or "How dare you be this negative about a character I like". Name a SINGLE time people have been civil on the internet when people call something overrated, it's just asking for trouble for the sake of it. Worst part is that underrated picks genuinely sounds interesting because it can bring up characters who rarely get discussed despite surprising merits and can lead to interesting conversations unlike "I wish people would shut up about *insert your most wanted here". I'll probably do a top 5 of underrated options tomorrow so I can write up beeeeeg posts about them though I'll probably include my Never Ever Miriam. Let's hope arguments are held at a minimum
 

TCT~Phantom

Smash Champion
Joined
Dec 10, 2013
Messages
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NNID
TCT~Phantom
Are we basing this off of scores given out or is it just our takes on the speculation scene at the moment? Either way I love days like these so I'll be dropping mine soon.
Speculation in general.
Hahaha holy **** this is basically a top 5 for who you don't want pretending to be smarter. I'd have gone for a top 5 most wanted because a least wanted/overrated just causes hostility in of itself, whether it's someone being petty about not liking a character refusing to get a reality check and spewing false claims they won't correct or "How dare you be this negative about a character I like". Name a SINGLE time people have been civil on the internet when people call something overrated, it's just asking for trouble for the sake of it. Worst part is that underrated picks genuinely sounds interesting because it can bring up characters who rarely get discussed despite surprising merits and can lead to interesting conversations unlike "I wish people would shut up about *insert your most wanted here". I'll probably do a top 5 of underrated options tomorrow so I can write up beeeeeg posts about them though I'll probably include my Never Ever Miriam. Let's hope arguments are held at a minimum
The funny thing is this thread was pretty civil aside from your post. At worst you had minor objections, far from the level of toxicity you would expect from your post. If I am being honest, you are the one with a toxic attitude around here with a post that essentially is flaming.
 

Cutie Gwen

Lovely warrior
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Messages
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Somewhere out there on this big blue marble
Speculation in general.


The funny thing is this thread was pretty civil aside from your post. At worst you had minor objections, far from the level of toxicity you would expect from your post. If I am being honest, you are the one with a toxic attitude around here with a post that essentially is flaming.
All I'm saying is that an overrated characters topic is a horrible idea that serves no purpose other than to pit fanbases against each other for no real reason. I even said that an underrated character idea's pretty ****ing good, but yeah call it flaming when someone says "This was a bad idea" and what do you know I scrolled up to see what actually got discussed as I made the post as soon as I saw the title and boom, one of the bad things I said would happen actually happened, someone saying "I don't like this character they suck therefore overrated because I do not believe they have even 1 thing of merit". Next time, just do a Underrated Pick day and nothing else because I can assure you, people will be significantly more passionate about talking about who they think are often overlooked as they very well may not have had many chances to talk about them instead of the same old stuff, including things we saw just yesterday. Talking about Rex or Waluigi 2 days in a row isn't exactly interesting discussion either as I've seen people get frustrated with the fixed schedule forcing rerates of characters discussed to death only for this special day that was a secret hyped up to basically be another typical rerate day only without adding in percentages. You kept saying that people weren't allowed to take issue with the fixes schedule because you didn't hear any issues about it during the day you decided it so as I'm actually aware of this idea and actively participating in the thread, I feel like this is justified. Though if you mentioned you'd prefer a DM like you did on the fixed schedule I'd probably have DMed you on this
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Hero
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
8,258
Today is the purge
Wasn't the purge tomorrow?
Here would be the revised rule: Posts lacking at least 2 sentences in reasoning of chance and want will be invalid and your scores and nominations will be ignored. Abstaining from a rating will not require reasoning, though it would be appreciated. If your post is at paragraph for each score, then you will get five extra noms.
What exactly constitutes a paragraph? I think we should be clear about that.
Name a SINGLE time people have been civil on the internet when people call something overrated
We've done these several times and people have been civil. I'd like to continue that tradition so please refrain from that kind of behavior.
 
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Cutie Gwen

Lovely warrior
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Messages
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Somewhere out there on this big blue marble
We've done these several times and people have been civil. I'd like to continue that tradition so please refrain from that kind of behavior.
If this idea has been done before and it went well then first of all, I'm genuinely surprised and kudos because it has the potential to get ugly pretty damn quickly as seen on plenty of days I've seen here

Second, if this was done before, I fail to see what the point was in secrecy when it's nothing new but rather something uncommon
 

fogbadge

Smash Legend
Joined
Jun 29, 2012
Messages
10,668
Location
Scotland
You're really gonna go there, huh? Welp, here we go.
Devil May Cry is the embodiment of cool. It invented the modern beat-'em-up genre, it gives you the most stupidly awesome weapons possible, it takes the horrors of Resident Evil and lets you shred them all to pieces in the coolest way possible while epic rock music blares in the background. You can have opinions, but when you say with utmost certainty that there's nothing cool about Devil May Cry... Yeah.
Minecraft is indeed a game about patience. You can create towering buildings and massive cities, set up custom maps, and put together unique and creative mods. Obviously you're going to need patience; Anything big you commit to takes time. It helps that a lot of us, me included, hold a lot of nostalgia for the olden days when Minecraft was everywhere.
Halo is the Xbox game, the first-person shooter of the 2000's. This was a huge part of people's childhoods (Not including mine, though), and it's been ingrained into the minds of many a gamer. This is a massive part of some gamer's lives; Of course they're gonna put it on a pedestal.
well i was under the impression this was a purely opinion based affair

but i stand by my assessment, that gun/sword wielding jerk is LAME!
 

Velveeta Dream

Smash Ace
Joined
Mar 7, 2019
Messages
880
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Le Carré
So I've been very inactive since the new rerate schedule started, but are these top 5s based on characters we've rated before today or are we allowed to throw any characters in it?
 

SharkLord

Smash Champion
Joined
Jun 20, 2020
Messages
2,085
Location
Pangaea, 250 MYA
So I've been very inactive since the new rerate schedule started, but are these top 5s based on characters we've rated before today or are we allowed to throw any characters in it?
Just any character you think is underrated/overrated. You also get 10 noms this time around, so best use them while you still can.
 

DrifloonEmpire

Smash Lord
Joined
Aug 2, 2019
Messages
1,012
Overrated/Underrated Character in Speculation

Characters won't be listed in a particular order


Overrated Characters:

Doom Slayer:
A character who became popular via fake leaks, anniversary events (mostly the retro ports, which weren't Nintendo-specific mind you), and those quickly-annoying Doom/Isabelle memes, Doom Slayer rose to prominence in a typical ripples to waves effect. One can't deny Doom's legacy and how it grandfathered a genre, along with Nintendo/Bethesda's buddy-buddy nature, making people see him as a good choice. problem is, he was championed as the ONLY possible Bethesda rep despite Doom's lack of popularity in Japan (compared to The Elder Scrolls which is MUCH more popular in Japan along with Fallout, which has a decently sized fanbase of its' own in Japan despite the nuclear apocalypse themes). Even when the Metro interview slammed Doom Slayer's chances completely, his fanbase insisted that pretty much everything Marty Stratton has ever said was NDA lies. While his popularity has certainly died down a bit compared to last year, ignoring the interview is extremely stupid.

Shantae: I get that Min Min put spirits back on the table, but kinda like Rayman it seems like Shantae's been repeatedly passed over as a character, and so far we have yet to see an indie take a playable position. While I get that the corporate synergy is there, and that Shantae's been doing well, it's more niche than people think it is, and it has some extremely touch indies as competition.

Gordon Freeman/Heavy:
Gonna rate these two as a set since I think they're overrated for the same reason. I get that Gordon is iconic and Heavy has plenty of fan demand, but people are forgetting something. Two little words: Corporate Synergy. Many of our character choices are determined by Nintendo's relationship with a company. It's how we have two Square Enix characters, Banjo, Bayonetta, Vault Boy Mii, etc. Company relations opened the door to these characters. Valve, on the other hand, has absolutely no relationship with Nintendo whatsoever (beyond a project that Valve flat out didn't make for some reason, which wouldn't exactly make relations positive), Nintendo has no reason at all to include a Valve character, especially since they seem to have little interest in the PC crowd. I get that there's a surprising overlap between Western Nintendo and Valve fans, but giving the two 30-40% rating scores on their previous day was just ludicrous.

2B: I get that she has a lot of similarities to Joker, including Sakurai's interest in the character, but I don't see lightning striking twice. Nintendo more than likely wanted to give Atlas a character for their support via Shin Megami Tensei and Sakurai campaigned for Joker (at least he has the Q games on 3DS and Scramble upcoming). None of the Nier or Drakengard games are on Nintendo systems, and the Switch isn't even getting the upcoming Nier Replicant rerelease. I just don't see 2B happening at all. Just because your game was good doesn't guarentee you a Smash spot.

Sakura/Reimu/Ryza: Gonna restate some stuff I posted in the Newcomer Speculation thread a couple of days ago. While I get the big popularity in Japan, thinking they're likely and underrated choices is ridiculous, especially them being compared to Joker and Hero. All three of them have a common issue keeping them back and that is both lack of presence and marketability in the west (at least for the first two) and a lack of attention from Nintendo. Almost none of Sakura Wars has been localized and the lack of knowledge of said franchise in one of Nintendo's biggest markets doesn't exactly fare well for a DLC character that has to be individuality purchased. The days of character circumstances like Marth/Roy/Lucas are long over and Sakurai expressed that he doesn't want to see this happen again. It's what kept Takamaru out and will no doubt keep Sakura out as well. Same goes for Reimu, and while Touhou is less of a literal who, non-internet savvy people aren't going to know who she is, and if also one man only worldwide sensation franchise Sans got just a Mii Costume, what does that say about Reimu? Furthermore, both characters have never been promoted by Nintendo in any of their directs despite the presence of Touhou fangames on the Switch. Meanwhile Ryza HAS been promoted in Directs.... in Japan only (in the September direct last year we got a Doom 64 segment in her place). If Nintendo doesn't even have the confidence to advertise these characters' normal games, either outside of Japan or AT ALL, then what makes people think they'll be high-profile Smash DLC choices? It's ludicrous to compare them to Persona or Dragon Quest, which, while not juggernauts like Japan, still have a decent Western presence and have for years. and if you want to rally behind a primarily Japan character that actually is rising in th west and actually is being promoted by Nintendo, then Arle is a much better choice (and this is coming from someone who'd much rather have a second Sonic rep).


Geno: The more I lurk the Geno thread, the more skeptical I become of the "evidence" and the insistence that this cult character is an 100% lock. While we have been getting fan favorites this game, including Banjo-Kazooie (and despite the parllells of seemingly little pieces of evidence adding up), they were N64 mascots (as opposed to an RPG one-off) elevated to the likes of Mario, DK, and Pikachu, and it was more than just fan demand that got them in. It took corporate synergy (Minecraft) to pave the way for Rare to have talks with Nintendo. I just don't see this same thing happening for Geno, especially when Square hasn't used the character for over 20 years beyond Geno's spirit and a couple of cameos. Plus with the greatly waning possibility of Cacomallow's legitimacy, I just don't think Geno is coming.


KOS-MOS: The ultimate definition of a bandwagon character and a character on life support, she's only been kept alive via crossover appearances and MonolithSoft shoehorning her into cosmic everything. Xenosaga was never on Nintendo systems, market surveys told that a Xenosaga remaster had little to no interest and profitability, and most of all, Nintendo would rather promote their OWN Xeno franchise. And when your competition is one of the most likely characters for Fighter's Pass 2 (Rex), things aren't looking good for you.

Porky: His missing spirit is no longer a factor and Earthbound isn't even being released on NSO if that one Twitter post is to be believed. There has been a resurgence in interest thanks to Undertale and the recent anniversary stuff, but any of his missing content being evidence is long outdated by now. I get it, people love Earthbound, but Porky really has no evidence to stand on right now.





Underrated Characters:


Prince of All Cosmos:
A victim of the "Lloyd or nothing" mentality, non Tales/KOS-MOS Namco characters really aren't given the chance they deserve. Katamari Damacy is famous enough to be featured in the Museum of Modern Art, A majority of gamers know the franchise (even if they don't remember the prince, the King, the Katamari itself, and the iconic theme song have caught a lot of eyes), it's a quirky Japanese game that actually managed to spawn a franchise where most would fail and even had EVERY game localized (the latter being something even Tales of couldn't do). The 15th anniversary was last year, there's been hints at a We Love Katamari remaster via cousin artwork, the series has more merchandise than it did during its' heyday, and Reroll introduced the series to loads of new people, even raking 4th internationally on the eShop at the time of release despite releasing the same day as Smash Ultimate (beating out Let's Go Pikachu/Eevee as well). Let's not forget that it was chosen to spearhead a series of remasters (that followed with Mr. Driller DRILLAND along with other rumored new remasters such as Klonoa), showing Namco's confidence in the brand. There's also the fact that, despite being a taunt (that didn't stop Heihachi speculation!), spirits no longer deconfirm, and it shows that he was in the minds of the developers. Considering Reroll's success The Prince could very well have caught Namco's attention. Let's not forget that unlike Lloyd, The Prince doesn't have to worry about a potentially returning Mii Costume, and with Heihachi's costume coming back so late in the game, it's only a matter of time before Lloyd's is next in line.


Dragonborn: Extremely underrated choice that did have some time in the sun thanks to Fatmanonice but is otherwise ignored. Skyrim isn't just lol wacky Todd memes that released on everything. It is the most influential and best selling game in a very influential, successful, and long running franchise (for context, TES1: Arena released March 24th 1994, just 4 months after the first Doom). And Each game essentially triples sales. Morrowind sold 4 million, Oblivion sold 9.8 Million, and Skyrim sold 33 Million and recently beat out the anticipated Doom 64 rerelease in the recent Bethesda sale. Plus Morrowind was nominated for Game of the Year while Oblivion and Skyrim both won it (mere nomination is something a lot of people use to justify Joker). The game is the first western game to get a perfect 40/40 on Famitsu, Japan really likes the game, Todd Howard clearly likes Nintendo with the Zelda collaboration items and motion controls in Skyrim for Switch, and Skyrim itself (along with OIblivion and Morrowind before it) was the trendsetter for open world games (especially in the 2010s), with none other than recent Nintendo super success Breath of the Wild taking heavy design cues from it. Dragonborn is by far one of the most likely Western characters, and if the Vault Boy mii costume tells us anything, it's that negotiations were on the Bethesda Game Studios side of Bethesda (further supported by Marty Stratton mentioning that Nintendo has no talks with iD Software).


Chosen Undead/Nightmare: Two more Namco contenders harmed by the "Lloyd or Nothing" mentality, both characters are influential in their own right. Dark Souls essentially coined a term for difficult games, is a very acclaimed trilogy of games, and had a recent release on Nintendo systems, paired with the it's own Solaire of Astora amiibo! Soul Calibur meanwhile was an influential series of 2.5D fighters prominently known for crossovers (Soul Calibur 2 even had Link!) and until recently was a well-performing and successful Namco franchise. Not much to say other than (despite Soul Calibur's general under performance in recent years) that these two really don't get enough credit despite their merits. Though I am happy to see that both of them made the fixed schedule!

Professor Layton: A juggernaut in Smash 4 speculation days who really took an undeserved tumble. No doubt he had good performance in the ballot, so what changed for him? More than likely the rise (and fall) of Yo-Kai Watch along with the current internal troubles within Level-5 and the break fron Nintendo exclusivity. This more than likely hurt people's confidence in Layton and caused levels of support to drop despite his fantastic credentials. Layton deserves more support, like his buddy Phoenix Wright his series is almost purely on Nintendo systems!

Quote: The father of indie games and big in the late 2000's (to the point where "Play Cave Story" was the original "Play Undertale"), Cave Story caused the indie boom and a lot of modern indies (like the aforementioned Undertale) owe so much to it. Furthermore, Cave Story has been on Nintendo systems since 2007 thanks to Nicalis, them putting their games exclusively on Switch on the console side of things. While he's ultimately been overshadowed by Shovel Knight and other modern indies, his role in history is not to be forgotten, and with Cave Story+ being readily available on Switch he isn't exactly irrelevant either.


Lara Croft: Not a character I'm interested in personally but it surprises me she doesn't get much discussion nonetheless. Her series has historical significance and is the third highest selling Square Enix franchise behind Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest. A lot of the Square Enix attention is on Geno, Sora, or the Bravely series, so Lara kinda gets set aside (despite the good scores she got on her last rerate). Plus she has tons of moveset potential with her artifacts, but I guess a lot of people are turned off from supporting her due to more exposure from her more modern incarnation who's much more generic by comparison. She also isn't that big in Japan (but still has a fanbase nonetheless) and has seen less releases on Nintendo systems in recent years (along with a need to negotiate with the Europe-based Eidos whish introduces a language barrier), so that's probably why she isn't talked about often. Still I think she deserves a fair chance!

General 2K Games Rep (Bioshock/Civilization): With the appearance of NBA 2k in the Switch reveal trailer, along with the many other ports from 2k the Switch has received (from Civ 6 and the Bioshock Trilogy to the quite disastrous WWE2k18) it's surprising 2k doesn't get discussed for another potential western company for a rep. The 2k <3 Nintendo campaign that still frequents the Switch news page is evident of a good relationship between the two companies, and there's even a little history as well (Civ 1 on SNES, Civ Rev DS). A character like Booker Dewitt/Elizabeth (more likely the former since you more frequently play as him) or a Civilization rep like Gandhi (his Civ incarnation is basically his own character at this point and he's pretty much the mascot for the franchise) should've gotten on the fixed schedule as a 2k-themed day. Both franchises have very successful and notable histories, and 2k as a whole deserves a bigger place in discussions.


Nominations:
Prince of All Cosmos x10

Predictions:
Non-Video game character recieves a Mii Costume - 1.42% - Outside of a potential Mickey Costume with Sora, I'm not expecting much confidence in the concept.
 

fogbadge

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oh wait we still get noms, chibi-robo x10

Overrated/Underrated Character in Speculation

Characters won't be listed in a particular order


Overrated Characters:

Doom Slayer:
A character who became popular via fake leaks, anniversary events (mostly the retro ports, which weren't Nintendo-specific mind you), and those quickly-annoying Doom/Isabelle memes, Doom Slayer rose to prominence in a typical ripples to waves effect. One can't deny Doom's legacy and how it grandfathered a genre, along with Nintendo/Bethesda's buddy-buddy nature, making people see him as a good choice. problem is, he was championed as the ONLY possible Bethesda rep despite Doom's lack of popularity in Japan (compared to The Elder Scrolls which is MUCH more popular in Japan along with Fallout, which has a decently sized fanbase of its' own in Japan despite the nuclear apocalypse themes). Even when the Metro interview slammed Doom Slayer's chances completely, his fanbase insisted that pretty much everything Marty Stratton has ever said was NDA lies. While his popularity has certainly died down a bit compared to last year, ignoring the interview is extremely stupid.

Shantae: I get that Min Min put spirits back on the table, but kinda like Rayman it seems like Shantae's been repeatedly passed over as a character, and so far we have yet to see an indie take a playable position. While I get that the corporate synergy is there, and that Shantae's been doing well, it's more niche than people think it is, and it has some extremely touch indies as competition.

Gordon Freeman/Heavy:
Gonna rate these two as a set since I think they're overrated for the same reason. I get that Gordon is iconic and Heavy has plenty of fan demand, but people are forgetting something. Two little words: Corporate Synergy. Many of our character choices are determined by Nintendo's relationship with a company. It's how we have two Square Enix characters, Banjo, Bayonetta, Vault Boy Mii, etc. Company relations opened the door to these characters. Valve, on the other hand, has absolutely no relationship with Nintendo whatsoever (beyond a project that Valve flat out didn't make for some reason, which wouldn't exactly make relations positive), Nintendo has no reason at all to include a Valve character, especially since they seem to have little interest in the PC crowd. I get that there's a surprising overlap between Western Nintendo and Valve fans, but giving the two 30-40% rating scores on their previous day was just ludicrous.

2B: I get that she has a lot of similarities to Joker, including Sakurai's interest in the character, but I don't see lightning striking twice. Nintendo more than likely wanted to give Atlas a character for their support via Shin Megami Tensei and Sakurai campaigned for Joker (at least he has the Q games on 3DS and Scramble upcoming). None of the Nier or Drakengard games are on Nintendo systems, and the Switch isn't even getting the upcoming Nier Replicant rerelease. I just don't see 2B happening at all. Just because your game was good doesn't guarentee you a Smash spot.

Sakura/Reimu/Ryza: Gonna restate some stuff I posted in the Newcomer Speculation thread a couple of days ago. While I get the big popularity in Japan, thinking they're likely and underrated choices is ridiculous, especially them being compared to Joker and Hero. All three of them have a common issue keeping them back and that is both lack of presence and marketability in the west (at least for the first two) and a lack of attention from Nintendo. Almost none of Sakura Wars has been localized and the lack of knowledge of said franchise in one of Nintendo's biggest markets doesn't exactly fare well for a DLC character that has to be individuality purchased. The days of character circumstances like Marth/Roy/Lucas are long over and Sakurai expressed that he doesn't want to see this happen again. It's what kept Takamaru out and will no doubt keep Sakura out as well. Same goes for Reimu, and while Touhou is less of a literal who, non-internet savvy people aren't going to know who she is, and if also one man only worldwide sensation franchise Sans got just a Mii Costume, what does that say about Reimu? Furthermore, both characters have never been promoted by Nintendo in any of their directs despite the presence of Touhou fangames on the Switch. Meanwhile Ryza HAS been promoted in Directs.... in Japan only (in the September direct last year we got a Doom 64 segment in her place). If Nintendo doesn't even have the confidence to advertise these characters' normal games, either outside of Japan or AT ALL, then what makes people think they'll be high-profile Smash DLC choices? It's ludicrous to compare them to Persona or Dragon Quest, which, while not juggernauts like Japan, still have a decent Western presence and have for years. and if you want to rally behind a primarily Japan character that actually is rising in th west and actually is being promoted by Nintendo, then Arle is a much better choice (and this is coming from someone who'd much rather have a second Sonic rep).


Geno: The more I lurk the Geno thread, the more skeptical I become of the "evidence" and the insistence that this cult character is an 100% lock. While we have been getting fan favorites this game, including Banjo-Kazooie (and despite the parllells of seemingly little pieces of evidence adding up), they were N64 mascots (as opposed to an RPG one-off) elevated to the likes of Mario, DK, and Pikachu, and it was more than just fan demand that got them in. It took corporate synergy (Minecraft) to pave the way for Rare to have talks with Nintendo. I just don't see this same thing happening for Geno, especially when Square hasn't used the character for over 20 years beyond Geno's spirit and a couple of cameos. Plus with the greatly waning possibility of Cacomallow's legitimacy, I just don't think Geno is coming.


KOS-MOS: The ultimate definition of a bandwagon character and a character on life support, she's only been kept alive via crossover appearances and MonolithSoft shoehorning her into cosmic everything. Xenosaga was never on Nintendo systems, market surveys told that a Xenosaga remaster had little to no interest and profitability, and most of all, Nintendo would rather promote their OWN Xeno franchise. And when your competition is one of the most likely characters for Fighter's Pass 2 (Rex), things aren't looking good for you.

Porky: His missing spirit is no longer a factor and Earthbound isn't even being released on NSO if that one Twitter post is to be believed. There has been a resurgence in interest thanks to Undertale and the recent anniversary stuff, but any of his missing content being evidence is long outdated by now. I get it, people love Earthbound, but Porky really has no evidence to stand on right now.





Underrated Characters:


Prince of All Cosmos:
A victim of the "Lloyd or nothing" mentality, non Tales/KOS-MOS Namco characters really aren't given the chance they deserve. Katamari Damacy is famous enough to be featured in the Museum of Modern Art, A majority of gamers know the franchise (even if they don't remember the prince, the King, the Katamari itself, and the iconic theme song have caught a lot of eyes), it's a quirky Japanese game that actually managed to spawn a franchise where most would fail and even had EVERY game localized (the latter being something even Tales of couldn't do). The 15th anniversary was last year, there's been hints at a We Love Katamari remaster via cousin artwork, the series has more merchandise than it did during its' heyday, and Reroll introduced the series to loads of new people, even raking 4th internationally on the eShop at the time of release despite releasing the same day as Smash Ultimate (beating out Let's Go Pikachu/Eevee as well). Let's not forget that it was chosen to spearhead a series of remasters (that followed with Mr. Driller DRILLAND along with other rumored new remasters such as Klonoa), showing Namco's confidence in the brand. There's also the fact that, despite being a taunt (that didn't stop Heihachi speculation!), spirits no longer deconfirm, and it shows that he was in the minds of the developers. Considering Reroll's success The Prince could very well have caught Namco's attention. Let's not forget that unlike Lloyd, The Prince doesn't have to worry about a potentially returning Mii Costume, and with Heihachi's costume coming back so late in the game, it's only a matter of time before Lloyd's is next in line.


Dragonborn: Extremely underrated choice that did have some time in the sun thanks to Fatmanonice but is otherwise ignored. Skyrim isn't just lol wacky Todd memes that released on everything. It is the most influential and best selling game in a very influential, successful, and long running franchise (for context, TES1: Arena released March 24th 1994, just 4 months after the first Doom). And Each game essentially triples sales. Morrowind sold 4 million, Oblivion sold 9.8 Million, and Skyrim sold 33 Million and recently beat out the anticipated Doom 64 rerelease in the recent Bethesda sale. Plus Morrowind was nominated for Game of the Year while Oblivion and Skyrim both won it (mere nomination is something a lot of people use to justify Joker). The game is the first western game to get a perfect 40/40 on Famitsu, Japan really likes the game, Todd Howard clearly likes Nintendo with the Zelda collaboration items and motion controls in Skyrim for Switch, and Skyrim itself (along with OIblivion and Morrowind before it) was the trendsetter for open world games (especially in the 2010s), with none other than recent Nintendo super success Breath of the Wild taking heavy design cues from it. Dragonborn is by far one of the most likely Western characters, and if the Vault Boy mii costume tells us anything, it's that negotiations were on the Bethesda Game Studios side of Bethesda (further supported by Marty Stratton mentioning that Nintendo has no talks with iD Software).


Chosen Undead/Nightmare: Two more Namco contenders harmed by the "Lloyd or Nothing" mentality, both characters are influential in their own right. Dark Souls essentially coined a term for difficult games, is a very acclaimed trilogy of games, and had a recent release on Nintendo systems, paired with the it's own Solaire of Astora amiibo! Soul Calibur meanwhile was an influential series of 2.5D fighters prominently known for crossovers (Soul Calibur 2 even had Link!) and until recently was a well-performing and successful Namco franchise. Not much to say other than (despite Soul Calibur's general under performance in recent years) that these two really don't get enough credit despite their merits. Though I am happy to see that both of them made the fixed schedule!

Professor Layton: A juggernaut in Smash 4 speculation days who really took an undeserved tumble. No doubt he had good performance in the ballot, so what changed for him? More than likely the rise (and fall) of Yo-Kai Watch along with the current internal troubles within Level-5 and the break fron Nintendo exclusivity. This more than likely hurt people's confidence in Layton and caused levels of support to drop despite his fantastic credentials. Layton deserves more support, like his buddy Phoenix Wright his series is almost purely on Nintendo systems!

Quote: The father of indie games and big in the late 2000's (to the point where "Play Cave Story" was the original "Play Undertale"), Cave Story caused the indie boom and a lot of modern indies (like the aforementioned Undertale) owe so much to it. Furthermore, Cave Story has been on Nintendo systems since 2007 thanks to Nicalis, them putting their games exclusively on Switch on the console side of things. While he's ultimately been overshadowed by Shovel Knight and other modern indies, his role in history is not to be forgotten, and with Cave Story+ being readily available on Switch he isn't exactly irrelevant either.


Lara Croft: Not a character I'm interested in personally but it surprises me she doesn't get much discussion nonetheless. Her series has historical significance and is the third highest selling Square Enix franchise behind Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest. A lot of the Square Enix attention is on Geno, Sora, or the Bravely series, so Lara kinda gets set aside (despite the good scores she got on her last rerate). Plus she has tons of moveset potential with her artifacts, but I guess a lot of people are turned off from supporting her due to more exposure from her more modern incarnation who's much more generic by comparison. She also isn't that big in Japan (but still has a fanbase nonetheless) and has seen less releases on Nintendo systems in recent years (along with a need to negotiate with the Europe-based Eidos whish introduces a language barrier), so that's probably why she isn't talked about often. Still I think she deserves a fair chance!

General 2K Games Rep (Bioshock/Civilization): With the appearance of NBA 2k in the Switch reveal trailer, along with the many other ports from 2k the Switch has received (from Civ 6 and the Bioshock Trilogy to the quite disastrous WWE2k18) it's surprising 2k doesn't get discussed for another potential western company for a rep. The 2k <3 Nintendo campaign that still frequents the Switch news page is evident of a good relationship between the two companies, and there's even a little history as well (Civ 1 on SNES, Civ Rev DS). A character like Booker Dewitt/Elizabeth (more likely the former since you more frequently play as him) or a Civilization rep like Gandhi (his Civ incarnation is basically his own character at this point and he's pretty much the mascot for the franchise) should've gotten on the fixed schedule as a 2k-themed day. Both franchises have very successful and notable histories, and 2k as a whole deserves a bigger place in discussions.


Nominations:
Prince of All Cosmos x10

Predictions:
Non-Video game character recieves a Mii Costume - 1.42% - Outside of a potential Mickey Costume with Sora, I'm not expecting much confidence in the concept.
it was supposed to be five for each
 
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Guynamednelson

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Overrated:

Rillaboom/Urshifu:
Actually I think all of gen 8 is overrated, but I want to signal these two out specifically. Rillaboom is speculated on because we don't have a fully evolved grass starter in the roster, but Pokemon reps are chosen based on TPC's marketing, and a "balanced" Smash roster is not what they prioritize. Likewise, I think it would be a pain to play as even casually, and that its signature move's animation screams Poke Ball Pokemon more than fighter. Now onto Urshifu: There are people who think it'd get priority because it'd advertise something more recent than base SS. However, ORAS being newer than XY did not mean they canceled Greninja or made a Hoenn Pokemon playable as DLC.

Elma: Most of the arguments in favor of her feel like Elma fans were expecting Sakurai to have planned Fighters Pass 1 and 2 at the same time. I'm mainly going to focus on the Rex costume one. "Why would they make the costume a bonus for buying FP1 if he's gonna be a DLC fighter?" is indeed a good argument...for FP1, not a pass that doesn't come with said costume. The lack of music tracks from XCX also seems to be because of licensing issues, and not for making a challenger pack not seem redundant.

Crash Bandicoot: I think "Incineroar already spins" is a terrible argument against him, but that doesn't mean I agree with arguments for his inclusion. He seems to be dependent on Nintendo caring highly about two mentalities: "Anime swordsman bad, platformer furry good" and "First party bad, third party good." However, FP1 leaned heavily towards anime swordsmen over platformer furries (See: Jokes about how Banjo is the furry that wound up at an anime convention), and we've gotten two first parties in a row. That doesn't mean third parties are done for good, but please don't expect the same ratio as FP1.

Master Chief: The Chief would indeed break the internet, but I don't believe that is Nintendo's #1 priority. If they do want to break the internet, they only want to break it in concentrated areas like Japan with Hero or Mexico with Terry, not all of North America and a decent amount of Europe. I'm not saying "Doomguy has a bigger connection with Nintendo so he's more likely" at all, considering most people played Doom 64 outside of the titular console.

Steve: You can't deny it. He's from the best selling game of all time. But the third parties we've gotten are ones that are much smaller, and they've been followed up with first parties that have yet to exceed 3 million units. I feel like he'd stick out too much from what we've seen so far, and not just because of his blocky model and pixelated textures.

Underrated:

Isaac:
Waluigi may be bigger, but Golden Sun is more suited for a challenger pack than Waluigi is, with its two tracks not being from the first game, the spirits only being the series' main protagonists and party members you encounter in GS1, and the lack of a stage from the series. Plenty at the Nintendo World Store were disappointed to see he would still be an AT, and the series' cult following is still fairly active, getting a shout-out from Discord's Twitter on their first "Golden Sunday" and recently releasing an Overclocked Remix album.

Eevee: There may be several Gen 1 Pokemon on the roster already, but once again, The Pokemon Company does not base their marketing around what Smash fans think would "balance" the roster. And boy, do they market this thing like crazy. It's culminated with Let's Go straight up admitting they want it to be the alternative to Pikachu, but it didn't stop there, thanks to things like Pokemon Cafe Mix featuring it in its logo and having you start out with one. Furthermore, I feel like when Smash added multiple Pokemon per game, they wanted to target a different audience each, and I'd think Eevee would scream "different audience from Incineroar" more than Cinderace.

NES/SNES Online promotion: One thing I never see being discussed is a Smash character designed to make people want to subscribe to Nintendo Switch Online, download NES/SNES Online, and check out their game(s). It could be Lip, could be Balloon Fighter, could be Excitebiker, could be a game that hasn't even gotten on the service yet like Takamaru for The Mysterious Murasame Castle. Such a thing could even be a goal for getting Ryu Hayabusa or Arle Nadja (who aren't underrated mind you) into Smash.

Sol Badguy: Understandable considering that Guilty Gear isn't as well known as Mortal Kombat, but before the Switch was released, Nintendo showed Arc System Works' logo among the companies they were striking deals with to get games on the Switch. Since then, they've added plenty of titles to the Switch, including games on NES Online that they now own the license to. Which would be the Kunio-Kun series, but that has been spirited. I don't think StrIVe will be one of the games the Switch gets, but Persona 5 still isn't either, and Guilty Gear still got games on it in the form of the first one and Accent Core +R.

Professor Layton: I still need to play his series, but it seems odd how he doesn't seem to be as discussed. Layton was one of the DS's signature series even with the series now receiving mobile games, and Yo-Kai Watch, the Level 5 series that would be Layton's main competition, doesn't seem to be having the same lasting appeal that Pokemon has had. Then again, they might want to get it into Smash just to help with that.
 
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SharkLord

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I won't name anyone in particular, but I'd like to say I take issue with people telling you what to think regarding a character's chances. You came here to give your opinion and see other opinions; Differing opinions are fine and your allowed to argue your viewpoint, but I'm drawing the line if we start telling people what rating to give or how confident they're allowed to be in a character.
 

YoshiandToad

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Still up Peach's dress.
Hopefully this doesn't cause too many arguments. Can we all agree to be civilised and not flame our most overrateds with this?

Most overrated (in my personal opinion. It's just an opinion, chill out if your most wanted is here please.)

Crash Bandicoot
Alright, let me preface this with saying I do think Crash has a decent chance, probably one of the best from the west IMO, but he is absolutely not the lock I see some places making out he is.

Sakurai's discussed the difficulty with working with western companies in the past and Activision have been known to be particularly troublesome in the past when it's come to using their licenses.

That said, Super Smash Bros. is a different pedigree entirely from Playstation All Stars so I can see Activision being tempted as long as the price is right as it makes for some great marketing...it's just whether Sakurai and Nintendo can be bothered to deal with them.

Ryu Hayabusa
Just like Crash, I think he has a damn good chance, but again...not a lock. Koei Tecmo are more involved than ever with Nintendo between Three Houses and most recently Hyrule Warriors Age of Calamity.

For what it's worth I think he's very likely for the next game, but I'm also aware the budget for DLC projects tends to shrink and shrink so I'm not expecting many third parties in this second fighters pass to begin with. Heck, even the third party in my underrated I don't think is particularly likely.

Doomguy
I think he's actually been disconfirmed now, but he was another that was seen as a lock. Doom isn't completely disregarded in Japan, but it's also not super popular from what I can see which is always a strike against any newcomer in my eyes.

First Person Shooters in general aren't massive over there in general, Doomguy is just one of the more notable ones.

Shantae
I'm just having a hard time trying to imagine Nintendo suggesting her over first parties(where they don't need to make any licensing agreements) or less associated and more famous third parties that have the ability to grab a whole new audience and introduce them to Smash.

Geno
Geno is in a similar spot to Shantae in my eyes where the majority of the fanbase already has the game and unlike first parties who likely do the same thing, Geno would still require some more licensing agreement since players would now be paying for a particular fighter meaning Square should get a cut of the profits.

He just seems like a lot of hassle with all the red tape and agreements needed to be made. If Nintendo at least owned him and Mallow...

Underrated

Lara Croft

Miss Video Games is always bizarrely overlooked for other Square reps. Whether it's Geno, Sora, 2B, Chrono or Neku, Lara always is remembered as an after thought, which is weird when she used to be as prominant as Mario and Sonic and is likely one of the first characters people will think of when asked to think about a female video game character.

Croft's biggest obstacle is how different Square's reboot and classic Lara come off, but aside from that she's another massive video game icon that would surely sell well.

Officer Howard
Unique fighting style, new IP, successful title with the director accidentally blurting out there's a second game in the works? Yep. All good.
Could see it happening, but many aren't sure due to the spirit event that happened at the end of fighters pack 1.

Tom Nook
Animal Crossing is a strange one. It sells absolute gangbusters but the Smash community and Animal Crossing fanbase don't cross over much. As a result Tom Nook is greatly overlooked despite the fact Animal Crossing is BIGGER than Smash now.
Granted, his inclusion in Isabelle and Villager's final smash is a dampner against him, but basically no one discusses him like he's not a possibility even.

Impa
Uh oh, jumping on the bandwagon here but between the newly announced Hyrule Warriors canon prequel which includes a young warrior Impa, her boom in popularity due to the initial Hyrule Warriors and even her inclusion in Cadence of Hyrule as a playable character I think Impa may actually have the best chance of any Zelda character at current.
That's not a HUGE shot granted, but Zelda characters tend to be hard to agree on.
She's also not got anything holding her back technically like Tingle being a stage platform, or Midna/Ghirahim/Skull Kid with their assist trophy issues.

Toad/Captain Toad/Toadette
Yeah, who didn't see this one coming from me?

To save every slot becoming a Toad variant I've grouped the trio of most well known Toads into one collective.

Toadette has recently been on the rise being pushed heavily by Nintendo in mainline Mario. She's replaced Peach as the fourth playable character in multiplayer Mario recently(at least the 2D games) between Mario Maker 2 and New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe. Nintendo are pushing her as a Mario mainstay, even giving her the deutagonist role in Captain Toad Treasure Tracker.

Talking of, Captain Toad has had a successful title all of his own, had tie in events with Mario Odyssey, has recently been brought back via Mario Kart Tour and now is set to return in Super Mario 3D World+ Bowser's Fury coming out in Feb(hopefully also adding those missing Wii U 3D World levels back to his game).

Lastly Toad himself.
Nintendo loves to use Toad for advertising. Last year we had many charming adverts for the upcoming Mario Kart Tour which featured a whole heap of the mushroom lads building the courses around Tokyo, New York and Paris. They've used Toads to advertise Paper Mario, the Smartphone app and more. Heck, he even got priority on the 35th Anniversary logo alongside Mario, Peach, Luigi, Bowser and a Goomba.

Nintendo know Toad is one of, if not THE most familiar face left out there who isn't playable in Smash, and that's an incredibly easy sell, even if the 'hardcore crew' don't particularly care for him. Plus unlike third parties there is no licensing issues.

He's currently in Peach's moveset, but unlike Chrom, him being able to pull double shifts as both moveset and fighter makes perfect sense due to having many copycat clones.

I don't think any of the Toads are actually likely, but they always get ignored to discuss, IMO, less likely options in Geno and Waluigi who actively have issues preventing their inclusion this time round.

Nominations:
Lu Bu x 10. Been on a Dynasty Warriors kick recently, let's goooo!
 
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GoodGrief741

Smash Hero
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Sep 22, 2012
Messages
8,258
If this idea has been done before and it went well then first of all, I'm genuinely surprised and kudos because it has the potential to get ugly pretty damn quickly as seen on plenty of days I've seen here

Second, if this was done before, I fail to see what the point was in secrecy when it's nothing new but rather something uncommon
I don't know what secrecy you're referring to, every time we've done this it's been on the thread title and everything.
 

Blankiturayman

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Joined
Sep 17, 2014
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336
Alright. I'll give this a shot.

Underrated
Bomberman
While I don't think he has great chances, this is more among what is "AT promotion" discussion. It usually comes down to Waluigi or Isaac, which of course make sense, but I'd say Bomberman isn't too far behind from them. He's got quite the legacy, even if it might not be as big nowadays, since the franchise tends to get smaller games. I'd say he's probably next in line from Konami (Since they grandfathered Bomberman from Hudson Soft long ago). Now, I don't think the chances of another Konami character are too high but I think he'd be a pretty good choice should they go with him.

Rayman/Ubisoft Character
Another "man" character, hah. He's been spirited in base game. He was a trophy in 4 alongside a few other characters. I think if anything Nintendo and Ubisoft have him in mind. The reason I'm putting him here is that often I see him being dismissed due to the Ubisoft costumes in FP1. I agree though that if they were chosen post FP2 selection then he'd be most unlikely, but I'm intrigued as to why he's missing. They added a Rabbid. Altair. Two of Ubisoft's biggest franchises. I can't help but wonder where Rayman falls there. I'd say the only other character standing in this same place is The Prince (Prince of Persia) who I'd also call underrated. That franchise's got quite the legacy. Maybe Ezio too since for some reason he wasn't chosen as the costume, despite him being more known amongst the AC characters. Point mostly here is, I think it's too early for Ubisoft to call it quits. Time will tell.

Black Mage/Vivi
This is more in terms of SE/FF discussion. I'm not sure why, but I don't see this guy mentioned as often as I would Sephiroth, another FF7 character, or among FF characters in general. I'd say he's pretty well known and as far as I know was pretty wanted for Smash for a while. He'd represent the early/classic side of FFs better, since Cloud as we have him is a more modern character pertaining to the series. I don't think the chances for yet another FF character are that good in this FP, but if we ever got to that point I'd say to keep this character in mind.

Reimu Hakurei
While I personally don't feel she's extremely likely or anything of the sort, I think it's worth keeping in mind, which in a way is funny to me, because years ago I wouldn't have expected to be supporting her for Smash Bros. She's got the eastern appeal, plus a long-lasting legacy of doujinshi games. (Back to 1996!) I think she's quite up there in that regard. Now, whether they go with her I don't know, but I certainly wouldn't call it impossible by any means. I would not say being mostly know in Japan is a barrier for her in particular, because she has her own set of niche appeal elsewhere. It's just pretty big there.

Adol Christin/Estelle Bright
Overall I think a Falcom character is quite possible, and I'd put these two at the forefront. For starters, Falcom is a company that has been around for years, but has mostly remained a bit niche. Ys is more known, but Trails is gaining popularity by the day. I don't know if I'd call them SNK levels, but they're around there. Recently, Falcom has been porting many of their games to Switch. This is not to say a character from them is guaranteed by any means, but I'd say it's worth keeping in mind. The reason why I think Estelle and Adol are at the front, is because Estelle would most likely be Trails' first choice, and Adol would be Ys', plus he has the legacy factor.

To give a bit more context, Ys has been around since 1989. Trails on the other hand, started as "Dragon Slayer: The Legend of Heroes" in the same year, but the current one as we know it started in 2004 as "Trails in the Sky". They could go with either, I'd say.


And now... for the rest. Honestly I don't have much of a beef with any character, at most indifference, I'll just go over the often mentioned ones that I don't think have as many chances. Just in my opinion, of course.

Overrated
"Gen 8 Pokemon"
I'm referring more than anything to the feeling that "there needs to be a promotion character" which I really don't agree with. Given that we've seen a Spirit event come for them, most likely decided post FP2, I'd say chances for another Pokemon aren't very high. Not impossible for sure, but I disagree with the notion they'd need to promote this game through anything other than events.

Steve
He's from the biggest recent game there is, that's for sure, but I don't think he'd be a shoe-in just for that. Huge franchises like Resident Evil have been passed over despite selling a lot, and I don't know if Microsoft would get a second character. That being said, maybe Minecraft could have some content, but I don't see the player character making it in.

2B
I've rated her in here before. I mentioned the Joker similarity, but I think the lack of Nintendo familiarity really makes a dent on her chances. I wouldn't put them extremely high, even if we were to get another SE character.

Shantae
She's got lots of competition among "indies" (WayForward is odd in this aspect afaik), alongside kind of falling off recently. She's gotten new games, for sure, but they haven't made as much of a splash (I didn't even notice when the latest game released) I think it's more likely than not that they just keep referencing her via stuff like spirits.

"BotW 2 rep"
Similar to the Pokemon one, this is mostly brought up in the context that they'd add a character to promote the game. But I really don't see it, BotW is huge of course, it's become one of the biggest Zelda games, but there was already a lot of content from the game added in the base game (Default Link was changed to the BotW one even!) so I'd say there's probably no intention for a character from here. I think the armor we got with FP2 was probably the last set of BotW content to be added to the game. Although I wouldn't mind a champion.


Okay, that's that.
EDIT: Upon noticing that the purge hadn't been done yet, I change my nomination: Zero (Mega Man) x25 (15 from the extra ones I had, plus the 10 from today)
Also, I vote Yes to the new rule.
 
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