Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[SharkLord]

Lip

Chance: 3% - Mainly being talked about again due to the NSO release, though she shares this with Arle so it isn't something special for her, along with the game continuing to remain untranslated. While New Leaf did reference the franchise directly, and she's fared better than someone like Mach Rider, her series' future is still up in the air. This could more than likely end up meaning nothing, especially since Takamaru's game in Nintendo Land didn't suddenly cause a Murasame Castle resurgence. She does have a decent amount of fan demand but there's bigger first parties that Nintendo would likely prioritize.

Furthermore, when Nintendo does their "what the ****" retro picks, it's ALWAYS NES or older. Melee had Ice Climbers and Game & Watch, Brawl had Pit and ROB (though the latter appeared in Mario Kart DS a couple of years prior as an unlockable driver), and Smash 4 had Duck Hunt. They love to shill the NES, and with Lip being an SNES character, she may very well be skipped over by Nintendo's nostalgia goggles.

Want: 15% - While she has a lot of potential, there are other first parties I'd rather see first. Furthermore, I did play her game on NSO and while I thought it was alright, puzzle games aren't really my thing. So I'd be pretty much neutral to her inclusion.


Takamaru

Chance: 4% - Unlike Lip, Takamaru's an NES character, so he very much has a chance in a future game as the surprise NES retro pick. Furthermore, he does have some western exposure himself with one of his games being released on VC worldwide, along with his Ninteod Land game and various nods in other Nintendo media. However, the advantages stop there. Sakurai specifically stated that Takamaru wasn't well known enough outside of Japan to be part of the roster (and that he wants to avoid situations like that going forward), and alongside that he's been an assist trophy for two straight games along with being a Mii Costume now. Like Lip, he certainly is gaining some ground internationally but he'll more than likely be passed over for bigger characters, especially in a period of paid DLC. I'd give him a bigger score if this were prerelease speculatin but I don't expect him as paid DLC.

Want: 20% - I'd be interested in seeing a Katana user, and I did really enjoy his minigame in Nintendo Land. Though overall I'm pretty neutral on him since I've never played any of his games.


Gonna abstain on Mach Rider, though he has many of the same disadvantages as the other two without the same level of fan demand. Surprised he was chosen for the Grinch Leak.


Nominations:
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x5

Predictions:
Chorus Kids - 10.43%
Karate Joe - 15.73%
Rhythm Girl - 2.68%

Expecting all of them to get decent scores despite Rhythm Heaven's current dormancy, and expecting Karate Joe to get the highest score (due to being the de facto mascot) and the Chorus Kids to get a decent score due to their fan demand.

Is Karate Joe the mascot? The Chorus Kids were the ones I heard about the most, but maybe that's just because they were part of the Grinch Leak and my strongest Spirit for a little.
As for Mach Rider, I think he was just chosen as the obligatory "Wait what the ****" rep, so the leak didn't seem too good to be true. If it was only massive fan requests and "Well, duh" picks, it wouldn't seem as real, at least for a leak that had Banjo, Isaac, and Geno.

 

[CapitaineCrash]

Is Karate Joe the mascot? The Chorus Kids were the ones I heard about the most, but maybe that's just because they were part of the Grinch Leak and my strongest Spirit for a little.
As for Mach Rider, I think he was just chosen as the obligatory "Wait what the ****" rep, so the leak didn't seem too good to be true. If it was only massive fan requests and "Well, duh" picks, it wouldn't seem as real, at least for a leak that had Banjo, Isaac, and Geno.

Karate joe is often considered the mascot because he appear in every games and he's the first character of the first game. But Chorus kids is often mentionned in Smash discussion because of the Gematsu leak of Smash 4 that imply that Sakurai wanted them at some point. Also Chorus kids are quite popular, they appear often in promotional stuff for the franchises.

 

[SharkLord]

Karate joe is often considered the mascot because he appear in every games and he's the first character of the first game. But Chorus kids is often mentionned in Smash discussion because of the Gematsu leak of Smash 4 that imply that Sakurai wanted them at some point. Also Chorus kids are quite popular, they appear often in promotional stuff for the franchises.

Ah, I see. Karate Joe is the mascot because he shows up the most, but the Chorus Kids are talked about because of an event that reached the Smash fandom. That makes sense.

 

[Cadillac]

abstain on Lip and Mach Rider.

Third time is not the charm
Chance: 5%
Not really likely. He have been slandered twice before, and while he had some chances in base game, I don't know if Sakurai is willing to promote him. I know some people on Nintendo likes him, and the fact that he was considered twice but popularity got the best of him may change if a new game or remake comes out. If that happens, he might become a promotional/cult classic pick, like Pit in Brawl. Overall though, I don't think a new game or remake of Mysterious Murasame Castle is coming soon.

Want: 95%
Second most wanted AT. He's a samurai, he looks cool, and it's an archetype we don't have in Smash now. The sword users are mostly western style users with rapiers, long swords, or the sword and shield combo. If I remember correctly the only playable character that uses a katana is Eight, and he just swings it like everyone else does. Having a slash-then-sheath type of swordsman would be pretty fresh. Besides his windmill swords look really cool too. A double edged scythe? That's awesome! Don't forget the fact that he can reflect projectiles with his sword. Ultimate has lots of annoying zoners like Samus, Snake, and the Belmonts, and Takamaru will reflect theirs and barrage them with his own arsenal.

Chorus Kids: 6.34%
Karate Joe: 8.93%
Rhythm Girl: 3.41%

Noms: Ghirahim x5

 

[NintenRob]

Abstain, other things I want t write

Nomination
Content from unreleased game x5

Prediction 5% all around

 

[fogbadge]

Ah, I see. Karate Joe is the mascot because he shows up the most, but the Chorus Kids are talked about because of an event that reached the Smash fandom. That makes sense.

fact is theres isnt really as mascot as far as the makers are concerned, but there as as far as the fans are

 

[Lyncario]

Takamaru
Chance: 0%
Bla bla I believe assist trophy disconfirm because of reasons I have already stated previously. Also he had nothing since his game was put on the virtal console, so he would get in only due to fan demand, and while it was pretty big before Sm4sh, 8 years later, not as much.
Want: 50%
He looks cool, and his at has some really cool moves. He would probably be fun.

Lip
Chance: 0.1%
She's like Takamaru execpt she's not an AT. By default she's at a better spot, but noy by much. Because she's also absolutely irrelevant, and while she trended on twitter for a bit after her game was put on the NSO, it doesn't matter now because the dlc was already picked. It was also pretty small, so it probably did almost nothing for Nintendo.
40%
She is cute and could have a fun moveset. Ultimately, I largely prefer Arle over her tho.

Mach Rider
Chance: 0.01%
Same as Lip but without her game being on NSO, and with Sakurai also saying that he orignialy wanted her but scrapped her due to him not having any idea how to make a moveset for her that would not be just Captain Falcon again. I just don't see her hapening in any Smash at all.
Want: 35%
I'm neutral on her. Like, I barely know anything about her besides her existence and that she has a motorcycle, so nothing fancy for her from me.

Predictions
Chorus Kid: 6.5%
Karate Joe: 5.4%
Rythm Girl: 1.2%

Nominations: SMT rep x5

 

[warpenguin55]

Since you seem to count re-releases, Mach Rider and Murasame got Virtual Console releases in 2014, and Panel de Pon got on NSO just this year. All international releases.

Dammit. They did. I've been trash at researching

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Foolish samurai
Chance: 0.1%
Japan exclusivity really holds him back even now. The western Eshop release of Mysterious Murasame Castle didn't even help him for a base game pick and it especially won't now since the 3DS is no longer being supported and the game isn't even on NSO yet. He's already both an AT and Mii costume and that likely is enough in Nintendo eyes.

Want: Abstaining

Stiff Upper Lip
Chance: 0.2%
The NSO release probably doesn't help much since it might've happened a bit too late and it helps Arle just as much Lip, who's infinitely more likely as a puzzle rep seeing how Puyo Puyo is actually localized, sees frequent releases and is way more popular. Doesn't help that she already has a Mii Costume and that the Lip Stick, her signature weapon guessing by the name, already appears in the game as an item.

Want: 0%
I too would greatly prefer Puyo Puyo and have no intention of trying out Panel de Pon, atleast not the Japanese games that actually feature Lip. I don't care much for the little fairy girl motiv she has going on. There are only five spots left for Ultimate and I just see no hype in her.

Mach Rider's a grill?!?!?!
Chance: 0.15%
I simply don't think a one time NES game would make for an optimal DLC pick. And no, they aren't gonna go for her for the sake of having the "obligatory retro pick" since the base game lacked one, kinda disproving that was ever a thing. DLC needs to sell too and I'm not sure if there's enough to the Mach Rider game to make for a challenger pack, atleast not in the music department. The fact that the game also isn't on NSO hurts even more.

Want: 10%
I am sorta intrigued by how a motorbike character like her would play and I do like the sound of the Mad Max/North Star looking stage she'd bring. Still, she would've fit better as a base game pick imo and if were to pick the final five she wouldn't be one of them.

Chorus Kids: 10.66%
Karate Joe: 8.89%
Rhythm girl: 3.40%
Hades x5

 

[BlueEyedGrimmbat]

Abstaining completely today.

Noms: Amiya (Arknights) x5

Can we have a noms count?

 

[DanganZilla5]

And no, they aren't gonna go for her for the sake of having the "obligatory retro pick" since the base game lacked one, kinda disproving that was ever a thing.

Wouldn't Piranha Plant count? I know it's a different situation since they are a mainstay in a huge franchise but the character originated on NES.

 

[fogbadge]

Abstaining completely today.

Noms: Amiya (Arknights) x5

Can we have a noms count?

or resident nom counter updates us regularly, just wait and be appreciative of the effort they put in

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Mach Rider

Chance: 5%

There's really not much in their favor, the most relevancy they had I'd say was the debunked Grinch leak that died years ago. I see them being high in priority for DLC, although I never expected the either, so anything's possible.

Want: 80%

I'd be OK with them either way, but I'd have taken them over in a heartbeat as the retro rep, as they would have actually represented a new universe just like the previous retro reps like , etc. That would be a plus for me.

Lip

Chance: 15%

She has renewed relevancy due to her recent international release, so that helps her a little bit, even if not much. Other wise she's in the same boat as the other two.

Want: 100%

Panel de Pon has been one of my favorites since it's release on SNES online, so I would love to see her in the game. It's always been a crime how the Lip's Stick is such an iconic item in Smash Bros and yet literally no one actually knows the character and game behind the item.

Takamaru

Chance: 10%

Sakurai did consider him for Smash 4, and he was passed over for international relevance, however he has since then gotten international releases since Smash 4's development which helps him. His appearance in Mario Maker 2 also suggests that Nintendo hasn't forgotten about him.

Want: 85%

I just finished watching Samurai Champloo and have finally caught up to the current Wano Country arc in One Piece. I have Samurais a lot on my mind recently as a result, so I'd love to see this guy in. I always thought he was a shoo in for the retro rep in Smash 5 the instant I saw his assist trophy revealed for Smash 4, as the next inevitable Little Mac (AT upgrade). Like the other two, I would have taken him as the retro rep over the in a heartbeat, as he would have given a smaller Nintendo IP more shine in the spotlight.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Blue haired swordsman #6
Chance: 1%
Once again, an assist trophy so he gets the standard 1% chance from me.

Nintendo seems be interested in reviving him through cameos at least:
2008: He is one of the residents of Mimin Island, an island of forgotten Nintendo characters(and Birdo) in the Japanese exclusive title Captain Rainbow. Notably Little Mac is a fellow resident.
2009: Samurai Warriors 3 adds Takamaru into the roster as a Nintendo exclusive character on the Wii complete with his own storymode. He also appears in WarioWare DIY in Japan only.
2012: Nintendo Land releases with a bunch of mini games centered around franchises featured in Smash Bros...and Murasame Castle which was particularly odd since Takamaru hadn't had a lot of western acknowledgement by this point.
2014: The game releases to western audiences finally after 28 years. Takamaru is revealed as an assist trophy for Sm4sh
2015: Takamaru is a Mii outfit in Sm4sh
2018: Takamaru returns as a Mii outfit and Assist as well as a spirit for Smash Bros. Ultimate
2019: Mario Maker 2 makes him appear whenever the Ninja Sound Effect is used.

Strangely despite these cameos there doesn't seem to be much interest in reviving the IP even with the west now more accutely aware of Takamaru than ever before.

Want: 15%
I've never really got the appeal of Takamaru myself.

He's a rather stock samurai archetype with some basic projectiles for flavour. Granted we don't HAVE a samurai on the roster yet, but it's not really enough to make me want him, even compared to many of his retro rivals. Now we have Duck Hunt I'm not 100% against him like I was during Sm4sh speculation as that was the only retro character I desperately wanted.

But for me, a character has to be active or at least have more than one title to their name to get me excited for them being playable in Smash.

Taking the Trash (Block) Out
Chance: 4%
Finally, someone who isn't an assist trophy. I'm still not confident in Lip, but much like Takamaru(who she was also with in Captain Rainbow...I really wish we got that title) being finally allowed to exist in the west instead of being magically transformed into the more marketable Yoshi and Pokemon cast will definitely give her a little boost.

The fact her unique weapon is no longer an item in the Super Smash Bros. series does give her a bit of an in, but I'm not holding my breath.

Want: 20%
Slightly more than Takamaru just for being a.) a puzzle title character(I'm a fan generally) and b.) has a more unique weapon. That said the lack of appearances in the west still don't help her for me.

Little Mach
Chance: 4%
Mach Rider? Well...at least the game was released worldwide! Strangely never got a sequel though.
Mach Rider is a character Sakurai mentioned way back when after Smash 64's release stating he'd like to add them because their name is cool. Very Sakurai.
However we're here four games on and Mach hasn't gotten much more than that, not even a Mii outfit unlike our two other rating subjects today.

Whilst some might see that as a good sign...I'm not one of those people.

Mach also, despite having an international release, is referenced far far less by other Nintendo games with only Smash and Mario Kart briefly referencing it via stickers, trophies and a bike.

Want: 15%
I honestly have no idea what to expect from Mach Rider as a Smasher. Best I can think of is a similar situation to Captain Falcon but with a machine gun? It's a little too hard to visualise for me outside being a brawler.

 

[Opossum]

Retrio

I will give Mach Rider a 0%, Takamaru a 1%, and Lip a 5% in chance each. However, for all of them it's pretty much the same reason: these are characters Nintendo likely won't really do anything major with in the future. Takamaru and Lip at least have requests in some regard (but I don't think it's enough to outweigh their issues), and Lip did get her game released in the west in May, but unlike say Arle we know exactly why Panel de Pon got in over Tetris Attack (it's all in the name. Tetris Attack uses the Tetris name, and isn't allowed to be released since it isn't a Tetris game). Still, they at least have something, Mach Rider had nothing going for her until she was dragged into that event. You know the one. But either way it doesn't matter, because they still are lacking in true, proper advantages on any real regard. They have nothing to promote and haven't seen the light of day in a long, long time. To be blunt, these guys aren't happening as DLC. I don't think Nintendo considers them hot enough to be worth putting in.

I couldn't care less if Mach Rider or Takamaru happened so I'll abstain on want for them. But more NES retro reps really aren't my thing at this point. There's more console generations that are old than just the Family Computer and Nintendo Entertainment System, thank you.

Lip: 45%. Partially because I doubt she can coexist with Arle and, in that case I'll take the series that hasn't been stripped of its characters worldwide in its final entry 15 years ago. Otherwise, Lip would be a SNES retro rep when the NES gets all the love in Smash, and the N64 walked away with Banjo while GameCube onward debatable counts (and Wii U onwards certainly doesn't). So can the SNES get a little love? The last SNES original franchise I could think of getting in was F-Zero back in Smash 64, everything else debuted in a series older or younger than that (or on a handheld).

Frisk x 5. All of the Rhythm Heaven team are getting the same prediction score: 16.40%.

Mach Rider

Chance: 3%

There's really not much in his favor, the most relevancy he had I'd say was the debunked Grinch leak that died years ago. I don't really see him being added as DLC, although I never expected the either, so anything's possible.

Want: 55%

I don't have that much stock in seeing him, although I'd have taken him over in a heartbeat as the retro rep, as he would have actually represented a new universe just like the previous retro reps like , etc. For the next game, this score would go up though.

Lip

Chance: 15%

She has renewed relevancy due to her recent international release, so that helps her a little bit, even if not much. Other wise she's in the same boat as the other two.

Want: 100%

Panel de Pon has been one of my favorites since it's release on SNES online, so I would love to see her in the game. It's always been a crime how the Lip's Stick is such an iconic item in Smash Bros and yet literally no one actually knows the character and game behind the item.

Takamaru

Chance: 10%

Sakurai did consider him for Smash 4, and he was passed over for international relevance, however he has since then gotten international releases since Smash 4's development which helps him. His appearance in Mario Maker 2 also suggests that Nintendo hasn't forgotten about him.

Want: 85%

I just finished watching Samurai Champloo and have finally caught up to the current Wano Country arc in One Piece. I have Samurais a lot on my mind recently as a result, so I'd love to see this guy in. I always thought he was a shoo in for the retro rep in Smash 5 the instant I saw his assist trophy revealed for Smash 4, as the next inevitable Little Mac (AT upgrade). Like the other two, I would have taken him as the retro rep over the in a heartbeat, as he would have given a smaller Nintendo IP more shine in the spotlight.

I just wanted to clarify this because a lot of people think Mach Rider was only ever in discussion due to the Grinch Hoax.

Mach Rider has been a dark horse request, at least on this site, since the post-Brawl days, so much so that I remember having semi-frequent Mach Rider discussions here since 2011. Takamaru was always the favorite for retro revivals, but Mach Rider was usually close behind, followed by more niche picks like Muddy Mole (one day, my baby...) and, humorously enough, the Duck Hunt Dog (funny how things turn out).

Hell, the entire reason Mach Rider was included in the Hoax probably stemmed from discussion that the "Mecha gun model" Sakurai bought to model a character for was thought by many people to be for Mach Rider.

Just wanted to point this out. Mach Rider has a much bigger history within Smash speculation than a lot of folks are aware of.

 

[Ridrool64]

I just wanted to clarify this because a lot of people think Mach Rider was only ever in discussion due to the Grinch Hoax.

Mach Rider has been a dark horse request, at least on this site, since the post-Brawl days, so much so that I remember having semi-frequent Mach Rider discussions here since 2011. Takamaru was always the favorite for retro revivals, but Mach Rider was usually close behind, followed by more niche picks like Muddy Mole (one day, my baby...) and, humorously enough, the Duck Hunt Dog (funny how things turn out).

Hell, the entire reason Mach Rider was included in the Hoax probably stemmed from discussion that the "Mecha gun model" Sakurai bought to model a character for was thought by many people to be for Mach Rider.

Just wanted to point this out. Mach Rider has a much bigger history within Smash speculation than a lot of folks are aware of.

Huh, the more you know.

I'll give Mach Rider a 1% now. Everything still stands, but while not being as popular as Takamaru I guess Mach Rider is now not totally hopeless. Pie-in-the-sky, but not pie-coming-from-outer-space.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Krystal/Shadow/Bomberman pre-Takamaru/Lip/Mach Rider

Concept: A non-white/Asian human character x225
Tidus x205
Moogle x175
Nate Adams x175
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x165
[Rerate] Ezio x155
Shuichi Saihara x151

150 - 101

Alex Mason x140
[Rerate] Frisk x130
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x121
The Stretchers x120
D.Va x115
Zelda (BotW sequel) x110
Red (Angry Birds) x110
Billy Hatcher x110
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x110

100 - 51

Echo: Xion (Sora) x93
Sakura Shinguji x92
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x90
Concept: Deltarune content x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Riptor x80
Klonoa x80
Fulgore x79
Proto Man x75
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x75
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x75
Boss: Ender Dragon x73
The Terrarian x65
Concept: Rocket League rep x65
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x65
Echo: Dark Bowser (Bowser) x62
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x55
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x54

50 - 25

Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x50
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x50
Giygas x47
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x45
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x45
Gooigi x45
Dr. Goomba Tower x45
Austin the Butler (Gardenscapes) x40
Echo: Lord Fredrik (King K. Rool) x39
Stage: Bowser's Castle x38
The Bard (Wandersong) x35
Concept: Returning stages x31
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is half Nintendo and half third party x30
Urbosa x30
[Rerate] Monokuma x30
Amiya (Arknights) x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Rival Pokémon Trainer x25
Concept: Dark Souls rep x25
Magolor x25
[Rerate] Maxwell x25
John Marston x25

Under 25

Boss: Rayquaza x24
Jin Sakai x23
Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA x20
Yoshimitsu x20
Black Shadow x20
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x20
Lora and Jin x20
Hades (Kid Icarus) x20
Concept: Fighter Pass 2 gets delayed x20
Echo (Olimar) x16
Zeraora x15
Wolf Link x15
Concept: FP2 character comes with an Echo Fighter x15
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x15
Cynthia x15
Taranza x11
Gran/Djeeta x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Concept: Bravely Default rep x10
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x10
Vi (Bug Fables) x10
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x10
Tetra x10
Ghirahim x10
Chell x8
Mii Costume: Jacket x7
Concept: A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief x7
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Cooking Mama x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
Concept: No AT promotions x5
[Rerate] Morrigan Aensland x5
[Rerate] Cadence x5
Octoling x5
Kazuya Mishima x5
Excitebiker x5
Zero (Mega Man) x5
Gil (Babylonian Castle Saga/The Tower of Druaga) x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2
Kass x1

Tidus crosses 200 noms. Nate Adams ties with Moogle for third place.

Dwight Fairfield flees past the 50 nom mark.

Concept: Boss Rush reaches 50 noms. It's now safe from the purge.

John Marston rides out of the under 25 zone.

or resident nom counter updates us regularly, just wait and be appreciative of the effort they put in

Aww, thanks!

 

[Mr. Stevenson]

Abstain on Lip

Takamaru:

Chances- 0%

As mentioned here already, Nintendo does show to acknowledge his game via a good amount of references/cameos. However seeing that not only are there arguably more popular retro Nintendo characters out there (Balloon Fighter, Mach Rider, Excitebiker), but also mostly because seeing that he’s once again an Assist Trophy (something which I highly doubt will ever get promoted to an actual fighter, and even if they are, I’d expect someone like Waluigi or Bomberman to get that privilege). So with all this I’d say imo he has absolutely no chance.

Want: 3%

Although I do enjoy retro Nintendo characters picks a lot, this guy might honestly be one of the least appealing I can think of. A pretty generic anime character with not that much potential. If we really are to get one character from the retro Nintendo category for Ultimate, I’d say Balloon Fighter or Mach Rider would make much more sense, ngl.

Mach Rider

Chance: 5%

Ahh poor Mach, really seemed likely at one point until everything went rock bottom. Honestly the only way I can see this guy getting in is if Sakurai is still willing to keep his “one NES black box character per entry” tradition, while of course having bias for the rider.
I remember at one point back in the Melee days, Sakurai said he actually wanted Mach Rider in the roster, tho I’m not quite sure if that was meant as a joke or not. At least as a small plus for the guy, spirits are confirmed to be able to be promoted to actual fighters, tho I think this is about as good as his chances will ever get.

Want: 87%

While not exactly my most wanted retro (NES black box) Nintendo character, Mach Rider would really kick ass!!! I think his bike, guns and maybe a few creative liberties would make the guy really fun to play with, plus it’d definitely make retro NES crew in Smash feel more complete. Maybe his inclusion could even eventually revive Mach Rider’s series, similarly to how it did to Kid Icarus with Pit’s addition in Brawl. That would be really great too.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I don't have an opinion on these characters. Mach Rider would be cool, though.

Nominations: Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x5 (psst, GoodGrief741 I'm also trying to save any noms from the purge. Got anything in particular you might want me to help save?)

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Takamaru

2% Chance

Part of why Takamaru gets higher marks is because at one point he was indeed considered by Sakurai. I would argue his game coming to America now helps cross off the biggest hurdle he has other than one small detail. He is an assist trophy. I believe only a handful of ATs have a greater than 0 chance, and Taka is one of them. The fact at least in Japan there is some interest in reviving the franchise somewhat from devs helps him too, could be a promo pick.

100% Want

Murasame Castle is fun. It is Zelda's KI to Metroid, so more of a focus on combat than exploration. I'm fine with that tbh. It also helps that there is not a Samurai or quickdraw fighter, and Takamaru would be the best choice imo.

Lip
1% Chance

An obscure as hell choice with zero chance of a revival. What kills Lip for me is the fact I think she just is too obscure worldwide. We just got Panel de Pon. In May. While Lips Stick is not really an issue for her in my eyes, I just feel she is a bit on the obscure side.

100% Want

I have said when we rated Arle that I would like a puzzle fighter. Lip fits that bill perfectly for me. I have no attachment to PDP, but the idea of a puzzle character amuses me enough.

Mach Rider
0.5% Chance

Her only shot in hell in my eyes is one of two things happening. One, Nintendo is making a Mach Rider reboot of some sort. The other is somehow the Grinch hype and goodwill made Sakurai want her in. The chance of both of those is minimal.

100% Want

TBH, outside of Banjo and Isaac she was what I was most bummed about with the Grinch leak being dead. I loved the idea of a mounted character, someone riding a vehicle or animal. The fact it also was a cool post apocalyptic wasteland warrior kicked it up further.

Also I stand by that she is female, I will fight people on this.

Hmm, I think I will help save stuff from the purge.

Nominating concept: fortnite character x 5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

While Lips Stick is gone,

Lip's Stick is still an item in-game. ****, equipping Lip's spirit gives you one by default.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Lip's Stick is still an item in-game. ****, equipping Lip's spirit gives you one by default.

Crap misworded that, my b.

 

[Garteam]

Abstaining on Lip and Mach Rider, don't really have a ton to say on them that hasn't already been said.

Takamaru on the other hand...

Chance - 2%: Takamaru might have the worst luck of any Smash candidate, period. He was considered twice in the past, once for Melee and once for Wii U/3DS, and both times he was cut before development began. Likewise, he was cut for the same sin both times: being a Japan exclusive character. Technically, that's no longer an issue, given that Mysterous Murasame Castle finally saw an internal release on the 3DS. Unfortunately, that release largely seemed to be a moot point, given that Smash Ultimate had only 6 brand newcomers coming down the pipeline and all of them were either relevant up and comers or massive fan favourites. That really left no room for the standard retro character we've come to expect, basically getting Takamaru's chances.

Now we're a year and a half into Ultimate's DLC, it's really not looking good for the blue-haired anime swordsman. Basically every character we've seen so far is either a third party or a modern Nintendo character. It really seems like the retro NES tradition is getting skipped for Smash Ultimate, which is kind of a shame. There's also the issue of his assist trophy, which can be interpreted in a variety of different ways.

That being said, Takamaru does one thing going for him: Japanese devs both internal and external to Nintendo seem to have a soft spot for him. Ignoring Sakurai's considerations, Mysterious Murasame Castle has a ton of references across the past decade or so of Nintendo titles. He had a minigame in Nintendo Land, a DLC costume in Smash for Wii U/3DS (although that was probably decided upon because of the ease of porting his assist trophy), and he was even lucky enough to have a cameo appearance in Mario Maker 2! Likewise, devs as prolific as Hideki Kayima and Suda 51 have expressed open interest in a Murasame reboot. As such, I do think a new Murasame game could happen in the nearish future and, if the game releases sometime within the next year or so, Takamaru could be the pass' Byleth/Corrin. That being said, it's still a longshot to end all longshots.

Want - 100%: Yeah, I'm serious.

I first got into Smash speculation around 2011. Back then, everyone and their dog had Takamaru on their rosters. Between the Ice Climbers and Pit, most people had caught on that a retro rep was always happening and, of Nintendo's classic characters, Takamaru seemed to be the most agreed upon addition. He just seemed to be such a natural fit for the world of Smash. A samurai with a katana, magic scrolls, and more throwing weapons than you could sell to third graders at a flea market? Hell yeah, sign me and everyone else up. Takamaru was honestly as a common as Mega Man and Little Mac were on fan rosters during the very early 2010's.

A lot of this popularity carried over into Smash for Wii U and 3DS' early speculation period, but he quickly hit a decline in support that led him to largely vanished around the April Direct. I don't know if it was the feeling of "it would've happened by now" that hit people at different times through the proceeding months, but it was kind of depressing to see Takamaru slowly vanish from the spotlight. All of this, of course, culminated in his assist trophy hitting in July of 2014, putting him in the ground for good. Poor guy saw a brief resurgence in the 3 months between the March 2018 Smash announcement and Ultimate's unveiling, but he was put out to assist pasture pretty quickly.

Because of this, it just feels weird not having Takamaru on the character select screen. We've got most of the requests and predictions from that post-Brawl era, like Mega Man, Little Mac, Bowser Jr., K. Rool, and Ridley. Likewise, the few that we don't have either been replaced by newer faces (like Zoroark and Micaiah) or have had their franchises crash (like the Masked Man and Samurai Goroh). Takamaru doesn't fit either of those categories really, which makes him bizarre. He's basically the inverse of that character who's in the game but you always forget he's in, he's that character you kinda figure is in the game but actually isn't. To that I say: give us Link's estranged cousin. It's time to bring out this old samurai and give him a second chance. A new game wouldn't hurt either, given how relevant Sekiro and Ghost of Tsushima have made the samurai genre.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Abstain. I don't have an opinion on these characters. Mach Rider would be cool, though.

Nominations: Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x5 (psst, GoodGrief741 I'm also trying to save any noms from the purge. Got anything in particular you might want me to help save?)

Well, I'm trying to save Jason and Sophia right now, I think I'll be able to get that. If I can, I'd also try to save Medusa, Cooking Mama, Octoling and Gil, so if you could help with that it'd be appreciated.

Though with how low some of those are, it might be easier to just let them get purged and start over afterwards.

 

[Jomosensual]

Lip
Chance 1 - I don't think an NSO means much for her chances. Outside of that I think the other 2 are much more likely for a retro rep. Also think Arle is a more likely pick if they go for a puzzle game rep.

Want 0 - Nah, I'm good. Don't care about Lip too much and think her stick is fine representation for her game. I do like the item though.


Mach Rider
Chance 8 - Maybe but unlikely. Don't believe the rider has been considered for Smash since Melee. If we get a 1st party retro rep then MR is a contender but I feel like any more 1st party characters would likely be from new releases or to promote something.

Want 50 - Don't mind it either way right now. Could be fun but I don't have a huge desire to see it happen. Would probably be a different character form what we already have though so that's a plus


Takamaru
Chance 15- Think there's actually a solid chance here. Sakurai seems to like him and the series and the biggest issue was that there was no exposure outside of Japan. I know I've ripped other characters for their extreme obscurity in the past outside of Japan but Takamaru does have exposure outside of Japan now, and a lot of it with it coming from being an AT in Smash since Brawl. Does that count in the minds of Sakurai and Nintendo? I have no clue, but hey, its not the weirdest theory ever. I could see myself going weirdly higher on this too if Isaac and Waluigi weren't easily the most probably promotions and I don't think we get more than 1 AT promotion if that.

Want 50 - Don't really care either way again. Not sure how unique he'd be which is an issue or if he'd bring any new mechanics into the game like it seems like this pass is going to focus on. It would be pretty fulfilling to see a character that feels like they're slotted into an AT for life role get a promotion though.


Predictions
Karate Joe - 6.45
Chorus Kids - 8.43
Rythem Girl - 1.32

Noms
Jin Sakai x 3
John Marston x2

 

[Cadillac]

Lip
Chance 1 - I don't think an NSO means much for her chances. Outside of that I think the other 2 are much more likely for a retro rep. Also think Arle is a more likely pick if they go for a puzzle game rep.

Want 0 - Nah, I'm good. Don't care about Lip too much and think her stick is fine representation for her game. I do like the item though.


Mach Rider
Chance 8 - Maybe but unlikely. Don't believe the rider has been considered for Smash since Melee. If we get a 1st party retro rep then MR is a contender but I feel like any more 1st party characters would likely be from new releases or to promote something.

Want 50 - Don't mind it either way right now. Could be fun but I don't have a huge desire to see it happen. Would probably be a different character form what we already have though so that's a plus


Takamaru
Chance 15- Think there's actually a solid chance here. Sakurai seems to like him and the series and the biggest issue was that there was no exposure outside of Japan. I know I've ripped other characters for their extreme obscurity in the past outside of Japan but Takamaru does have exposure outside of Japan now, and a lot of it with it coming from being an AT in Smash since Brawl. Does that count in the minds of Sakurai and Nintendo? I have no clue, but hey, its not the weirdest theory ever. I could see myself going weirdly higher on this too if Isaac and Waluigi weren't easily the most probably promotions and I don't think we get more than 1 AT promotion if that.

Want 50 - Don't really care either way again. Not sure how unique he'd be which is an issue or if he'd bring any new mechanics into the game like it seems like this pass is going to focus on. It would be pretty fulfilling to see a character that feels like they're slotted into an AT for life role get a promotion though.


Predictions
Karate Joe - 6.45
Chorus Kids - 8.43
Rythem Girl - 1.32

Noms
Jin Sakai x 3
John Marston x2

Takamaru was an AT since Sm4sh. In Brawl he was a sticker.

 

[Jomosensual]

Takamaru was an AT since Sm4sh. In Brawl he was a sticker.

Ah, good to know. Swore he was an AT in Brawl too but looked it up and he wasn't

 

[Sid-cada]

Takamaru

Chance - 0.65% - Takamaru is still a relative unknown for most of the world. Despite constant references to his franchise, Takamaru's games lack of a global release until the 3DS has made him something only dedicated Nintendo fans know about and appreciate; something good for a base-roster character, but typically seen as a poor choice for a DLC character who should appeal to as many people as possible. Taking the AT into account, and we have a very unlikely candidate.

Want - 60% - He's not exactly that interesting, but I at least wanted a retro character. I don't care if that wasn't really a thing, it was just right. I enjoy shedding light on more obscure Nintendo Franchises, and that works well.


Mach Rider

Chance - 0.25% - He may have been considered one, but that was a long time ago. As of now, he's done even less than Takamaru, or even his closest competition in Exitebiker. Mach Rider has enjoyed some popularity, but I think not quite to Takamaru's levels. I think he simply doesn't have enough going for him that Assist Trophies may have a better chance.

Want - 75% - Wario's barely a bike rider; I'd be interested to see how a move set fully flesh-out would look. Who wouldn't want to front-flip a guy with a bike?


Lip

Chance - 1% - Lip having her game recently in Switch Online is enough for me to say that there is at least some interest in bringing it worldwide. However, the fact that it's not in Europe (at least as far as I know) means that it's still a relative unknown. While she might have a bigger audience, it's not enough for me to say that she would be recognizable by many, or even convince people to buy her, by any means.

Want - 75% - Hey, Panel de Pon should have never died. I'll easily take her, and imagine that she would be a fun additions.


Nominations

Monster Hunter X5

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

Takamaru

Chance - 0.5% - Takamaru is still a relative unknown for most of the world. Despite constant references to his franchise, Takamaru's games lack of a global release has made him something only dedicated Nintendo fans know about and appreciate; something good for a base-roster character, but typically seen as a poor choice for a DLC character who should appeal to as many people as possible. Taking the AT into account, and we have a very unlikely candidate.

Uh, Takamaru's main game was released in the US and EU on the 3DS e-shop. He does have a global release now, even if it's nothing too crazy.

 

[Sid-cada]

Uh, Takamaru's main game was released in the US and EU on the 3DS e-shop. He does have a global release now, even if it's nothing too crazy.

Whoops, fixing...

 

[Calamitas]

Takamaru: Samurai get Assist Trophy'd Twice

Chance: 0%
Sakurai holds a distinction over the other two characters we've rated today, in that we know for a fact that he was briefly considered as a playable fighter for Smash 4, but turned out due to a general lack of popularity. I highly doubt that his appearance as an Assist Trophy has really changed that, so I'm not seeing him getting that promotion.

Want: Abstain.
This guy's just. . . sort of there for me. The most I personally can say about him is that the occasional support for him I saw in the Smash 4 days did somewhat confuse me, but that's about it.

Gotta ride mach

Chance: 0%
I don't see it. Retro reps do have a precedent of happening, but I don't really see any argument for them being on a slot as coveted as the Fighter Pass. There are many other first-party characters that I'd Nintendo use for that over the likes of Mach Rider.

Want: Abstain
The most I know about Mach Rider is their appearance on the Grinch Leak. And that they're apparently female in some appearance(s)? That's about it - not enough to really give a proper want rating.

"Ahh, so this is what having lips feels like!"

Chance: 10%
To my knowledge, Panel de Pon is a rather long-running series with a decent following in Japan, and some representation already in Smash (that being the Lip's Stick item), so that is a point in Lip's favour, and enough for me to not see her as an absolute impossibility. But on the other hand, I don't really see anything that could be considered a push for her in Smash, either, so I'm keeping the score relatively low.

Want: Abstain%
Similar to the other two. Don't really have much familiarity with the series, so no want rating.

Nominating Concept: A Non White/Asian Human character x5

Chorus Kids prediction: 7.66%
Karate Joe prediction: 5.23%
Rhythm Girl prediction: 1.48%

 

[GoodGrief741]

Want: 0%
Similar to the other two. Don't really have much familiarity with the series, so no want rating.

I'm confused

 

[Perkilator]

You know what? I'm surprised there's no Mach Rider costume for Mii Gunners yet. That'd be cool!

 

[Calamitas]

I'm confused

Whoops, made a mistake there. I meant to write abstain instead 0. Gonna fix that real quick. . .

 

[SharkLord]

Are we moving on now?

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Calcs

Skull Kid
11.39% Chance - 72.00% Want
First time we rated him he got 6.01% chance and 63.33% want. This was on a special day when we considered ATs' chances of happening if their AT wasn't an issue, or in a future Smash game (same applies for the first ratings of all the characters in this scores update). Last time we rated him he got 5.46% chance and 61.30% want. This was before FP6 was announced to be ARMS - it's possible that even if it was Min Min instead of Spring Man, people's attitudes towards ATs softened. Or it could be the announcement of his DLC for Cadence of Hyrule. Either way, both chance and want are at all-time highs.
Winner of predictions was DrifloonEmpire with a near-exact 11.43%. That's 10 extra noms for you!
Skull Kid is now in the top 5 most wanted first parties. Not bad!

Midna
5.89% Chance - 68.69% Want
First time we rated her she got 2.71% chance and 44.15% want. Last time we rated her she got 4.33% chance and 57.17% want. Both times she was rated at the same times as Skull Kid. Unlike him, however, Midna doesn't have any recent or upcoming appearances, yet she also posted all-time bests. The Min Min effect? Or something else?
Winner of predictions was GoodGrief741 with 5.43%
Midna is also in the top 5 most wanted first parties, right after Skull Kid!

Lyn
3.50% Chance - 52.32% Want
Last time we rated her she got 5.22% chance and 45.57% want. Since then, Byleth obviously got in, so in the eyes of many that's all she wrote for Fire Emblem. However, want went up - did anti-Fire Emblem sentiment lessen? Is that even possible?
Winner of predictions was DrifloonEmpire with another close prediction, this time 3.54%. Another 10 noms!

Krystal
4.61% Chance - 52.60% Want
Last time we rated her she got 3.28% chance and 38.33% want. Since she also saw spikes in both scores, I'm just going to assume that the general consensus on either ATs or first parties got much better and leave it at that. Can't think of any other reason to explain this one.
Winners of predictions were GoodGrief741 and Calamitas with 4.31%

Shadow
11.12% Chance - 50.91% Want
First time we rated him he got 13.05% chance and 50.55% want. Last time we rated him he got 6.90% chance and 59.23% want. Quite the valley he's got in his chance scores. That second rating was between E3 and Terry; did something happen back then that made people doubt Shadow so much? Because I'd expect that back then his scores would be higher, with the possibility of an Echo Pass in theory being higher than now, when we've got pretty definitive statements that Vol. 2 is it for Ultimate and a pandemic that won't make any bonus additions easy. But maybe people were just feeling especially negative about Assist Trophy promotions back then and might not be now.
Winner of predictions was KingofPhantoms with 11.05%

Bomberman
7.50% Chance - 62.14% Want
First time we rated him he got 9.94% chance and 64.25% want. Last time we rated him he got 4.16% chance and 55.00% want. The first rating is pretty similar to right now, but that second rating, in the days after Byleth but before ARMS, was particularly rough. Good thing the little guy recovered.
Winner of predictions was GoodGrief741 with 7.86%

Extra noms:

Artix 15
Awakining 5
BlueEyedGrimmbat 5
Calamitas 25
DanganZilla5 15
DaUsername 97
Delzethin 5
DrifloonEmpire 20
GoodGrief741 25
Icedragonadam 5
KingofPhantoms 5
NintenRob 25
Nemuresu 10
Ninjaed 20
Perkilator 5
Ridrool64 5
SKX31 5
Ramen Tengoku 10
Troykv 15
waddledeeonredyoshi 5
Wunderwaft 5

 

[Deleted member]

How i would rate Lip? Well....

Chance: 43.5%

The NSO update does help a little. And even though the DLC is already chosen, i still have hopes for Lip to be one of the chosen candidates, no doubt or fingers crossed until the DLC is actually over.

Want: Over 9000%

YES, I'M DEAD SERIOUS. As much as i am obsessed with Puyo Puyo and already want Arle to be in Smash, what better way than give Arle an intimidating fight in Final Destination, than having Lip playable? Because Smash wouldn't be pure without one fairy girl that we ALL deserve to fight as. At first glance, i love the character, even if her plot was forced, and if we just give more support, Nintendo will confirm her for Smash and give us a new entry as a Switch title.

WHO SAYS CUTE "ANIME" FAIRY GIRLS CAN'T FIGHT?! FORGET WALUIGI, FORGET THE DOOM SLAYER, FORGET SCORPION, AND DEFINITELY FORGET SON GOKU FOR SMASH! Sorry or Not Sorry, Lip DESERVES TO FIGHT, even if you don't want her.

 

[BlueEyedGrimmbat]

Huh, since when did I get 5 extra noms? Ah well, I'm not complaining.

If I can, those 5 extra noms are going to Amiya (Arknights)...again.

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Chorus Kids, Karate Joe, and Rhythm Girl all of which are from the Rhythm Heaven series.

Predict Geno and Sora.

Megadoomer

Some songs to get into the Rhythm Heaven mood:

Spoiler: Rhythm Heaven Music

I legit had to doublecheck to make sure the Karate Joe theme wasn't a fake remix.

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain. I'm more interested in copy-pasting what I said about Sora again.

Geno: 75%
Sora: 30%

Noms:
Xion as Sora's Echo x3
Sakura Shinguji ×2