Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[3DSNinja]

Abstain
Nominations: Shuichi Saihara x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

"I understood that reference"

Chance: 15%
I'm willing to give Quote a 15% chance because if we get an indie character, he makes a lot of sense. He's kinda like the OG indie, the one who started it all, so while there appears to be a ceiling to what Indies can be in Smash, I think Quote's the guy to raise the bar - only because, well, he isn't in yet in any capacity. But he's also really easy to picture Mii Costume'd.

Want: 90%
I mean, if you're going to represent the entire indie industry, it doesn't get much better than this guy. And on his own merits, he'd bring a unique moveset and a kick-ass tracklist, so I'm all for it.

Did we ever get a breakdown on Shantae's parents? Because a genie-human romance sounds like a recipe for disaster

Chance: 6%
I wanna give a higher score because I feel like I'm gonna get dunked on, but I can't see Shantae getting in as playable. Fan demand, sure. But her Nintendo history is not to brag about considering we're dealing with Indies and pretty much all of them have Nintendo history. And I really, I mean really struggle to see her getting in over Shovel Knight, who I consider DOA after Spring Man got bounced. Still, 6%, never say never, might wanna do it for the fans. But honestly Shantae's kind of like Rayman in that I'm sensing zero interest from Nintendo and she's just lucky to be here as a bone to the fans.

Want: 80%
I usually give lower scores for Shantae because of her annoying fans and creator, but, you know what? That ends now. Annoying or not, I respect dedication. And Shantae has some really great games, a great design, and is all around a likable character.

Noms: ****ing Tidus x5
Oh my beautiful boys, so good to be rating you once more!
Too bad it's gonna be zeroes galore.
Ray prediction: 4.82%
Saki prediction: 8.73%

 

[MeteoRain]

She's got moves!

Chance: 50%

A 15% edge from before, and not because of Min Min.

The interview concerning Shantae's creator is, interesting to say the least. Some "really fun" people are looking to it as a sign of disconfirmation, but all he did was answer a question on how Shantae's spirit came to be.

Basically, he gave them free will with the character and his blessing. He didn't know what was comming out of it at the time. He didn't know about spirits until the trailer mere days before release. Chances are that he didn't know about Smash Tags either and that's an eyebrow raiser.

Considering out of the dozens of third party Smash Tag icons, the Shantae series is the only one represented with nothing aside from a couple spirits.

At the absolute least, she's a Mii. Hopefully, she's a full fledged Challenger Pack.

Want: 100%

This is my pipe dream most wanted.

Don't Quote me on this!

Chance: Abstain

I'm just not sure. Cavestory has more worldwide appeal than most indies. Which looks like a nice edge on everything that isn't Undertale...or Mincraft, but I don't want to open that can of worms. His biggest hurdle is likely his raw requests from the Smash fandom itself, his supporters seem rather far and thin.

Hey who really knows, right?

Want: 70%

You know, supporters of most other indies can get pretty hostile towards my most wanted. Quote's boys for the most part are pretty laid back compared to say a certain entitled bandwagon that was having a field day with Sans going down as a Mii with Shovel Knight's Assist and Shantae's Spirit.

Quote would be much cooler with me, tbh

 

[fogbadge]

abstain on both and nominate nate adams x5

 

[Lyncario]

The second oldest indie that's still active
Chance: 6%
Shantae has some things giong for her. She has 5 games, an history with Nintendo, and fan demand. Why is she so low, then? Because it's very often not even nearly enough. Layton and Phoenix Wright both also have those things to thir sides, and if that was really enough, they would both already be in Smash. Furthermore, Shantae does not really seem the character that could be the first indie playable in Smash. Not anything against her, she just does not seem likely for me.
Want: 55%
She's alright. I'm neutral on her, but I know that she has nice moveset potential, and her games are something good, even if they're nothing special in my opinion.

Don't Quote me on this!

just because it's not funny does not mean that I shouldn't have done it
Chance: 8%
Quote feels more like a character that could be the first indie playable in Smash, for me. He has moveset potential, legacy, and he's more recognisable than Shantae. However, he has one bug problem. He's owned by Pixel, who is owned by Nicalis. You know, the studio that did some really controversial stuff, and who even publicly said that Nintendo sucked once.
Want: 60%
Just like Shantae, I'm mostly neutral, but I like Cave Story more than Shantae's games so he gets an extra 5%.

Predictions
Saki: 2.4%
Ray: 1.3%

 

[Calamitas]

I usually give lower scores for Shantae because of her annoying fans and creator, but, you know what? That ends now. Annoying or not, I respect dedication. And Shantae has some really great games, a great design, and is all around a likable character.

Wait, why are the creators annoying?

 

[DanganZilla5]

Shantae

Chance: 35%

With the spirit rule gone, a major hurdle for her has disappeared. She has been getting numerous games over recent years which is also giving her more Nintendo history, she is heavily requested, and she has unique moveset potential. Her status as an indie characters still hurts her chances and she faces competition from other indie characters like Quote and Reimu. Plus depending on how you look at Sans' situation, you could argue that also lowers her chances as Undertale made a big splash in both the east and west. But at this point I think us getting an indie character is very likely because it's about time and Sakurai has been making strides with this game. And Shantae is definitely up there as one of the more likely indies.

Want: 60%

Nothing has changed for me since the last rating other than finally looking at some gameplay and seeing more of her moveset potential. I did get the first game off the 3DS eshop and....I have yet to play it because right now I'm preoccupied with other games. But overall I would still like her getting in. She is cute, has some good music, and I'm excited to see what Sakurai could do with her shape shifting abilities.

____________

There is so much potential for a Quote joke but I can't think of any at the moment and the obvious one is already taken.

Chance: 38%

I think Quote is a little more likely than Shantae due to his origins being tn Japan and he is basically the father of Indie games. I'm still hesitant to give indie characters much more of a higher score than this due to the uncertain future for them in Smash and I can see Quote getting a Mii costume. But if there is a single indie character that can become playable, I believe it will be him or maybe Reimu.

Want: Abstain

I think I gave him a score last time but I will just abstain here. I've only played about 30 minutes of Cave Story so I feel like I'm missing a lot when it comes to Quote in regards to his character and moveset potential.

Predictions:
Saki - 4%
Ray - 4%

Noms: Ezio x5

 

[Shinuto]

The second oldest indie that's still active
Chance: 6%
Shantae has some things giong for her. She has 5 games, an history with Nintendo, and fan demand. Why is she so low, then? Because it's very often not even nearly enough. Layton and Phoenix Wright both also have those things to thir sides, and if that was really enough, they would both already be in Smash. Furthermore, Shantae does not really seem the character that could be the first indie playable in Smash. Not anything against her, she just does not seem likely for me.
Want: 55%
She's alright. I'm neutral on her, but I know that she has nice moveset potential, and her games are something good, even if they're nothing special in my opinion.


just because it's not funny does not mean that I shouldn't have done it
Chance: 8%
Quote feels more like a character that could be the first indie playable in Smash, for me. He has moveset potential, legacy, and he's more recognisable than Shantae. However, he has one bug problem. He's owned by Pixel, who is owned by Nicalis. You know, the studio that did some really controversial stuff, and who even publicly said that Nintendo sucked once.
Want: 60%
Just like Shantae, I'm mostly neutral, but I like Cave Story more than Shantae's games so he gets an extra 5%.

Predictions
Saki: 2.4%
Ray: 1.3%

Legacy? With one game that gets endlessly ported by the hacks at Nicalis? No one would remember it nearly as much were it not its 2000 ports and remakes. Hes defintely not more recognizable given only really having that one game, but thats me. I think people tend to forget how many games failed to continue to progress due to bombing in sales. Shantae managed to survive a super late release on the handheld she was on, not even selling 10k copies, how many series do you know sold like that on their first game and still exist and do well critically now?

Also Nicalis doesnt deserve anything, so...sorry Quote, but youre owned by complete ****tards.
I'll post chances later

 

[YoshiandToad]

Wait, why are the creators annoying?

Sending artwork to Sakurai to use "however he wants" rather than Sakurai approaching them to ask about Shantae.
If Sakurai wanted Shantae in the game, he'd approach them for discussion. That he gave them a spirit is nice, but a lot of people don't really approve of indie creators begging for their creations inclusion.

Putting in little Smash 'hints' like that window thing and "Ultimate Sleepover" that caused everyone to go crazy, etc. Just basically artifically trying to create a hype around Shantae in Smash.

Not 100% sure if this one is true but didn't the creator head the Twitter campaign for Shantae 4 Smash too during the Smash Ballot days?

There might be other things but those are the main ones I see being thrown up. Someone correct me on the last one if that's wrong though.

People don't appreciate the constant pestering from fans as is but it's downright undignified for a video game creator to do it.

 

[Shinuto]

Sending artwork to Sakurai to use "however he wants" rather than Sakurai approaching them to ask about Shantae.
If Sakurai wanted Shantae in the game, he'd approach them for discussion. That he gave them a spirit is nice, but a lot of people don't really approve of indie creators begging for their creations inclusion.

Putting in little Smash 'hints' like that window thing and "Ultimate Sleepover" that caused everyone to go crazy, etc. Just basically artifically trying to create a hype around Shantae in Smash.

Not 100% sure if this one is true but didn't the creator head the Twitter campaign for Shantae 4 Smash too during the Smash Ballot days?

There might be other things but those are the main ones I see being thrown up. Someone correct me on the last one if that's wrong though.

People don't appreciate the constant pestering from fans as is but it's downright undignified for a video game creator to do it.

I like how you blatantly assume those actions as bad when people in the business, and Sakurai probably didnt think anything of it,hell probably appreciated the art being sent. And stop creating this forced narrative over those "smash hints", thats just you assuming things to fit your idea of WayForward.

We have NO IDEA how third party spirits we conducted so stop assuming the worst from the parties involved. Wayforward didnt create hype, they joined on hype already there made by the fans. So what you just assume Ubisoft had discussions even though the info on how Matt got Shantae spirit was super recent? Up till now we could only assume both companies did the same thing. Cause Rayman just has one spirit, oh and ubisoft sent 3d models too for smash 4

 

[Lyncario]

Legacy? With one game that gets endlessly ported by the hacks at Nicalis? No one would remember it nearly as much were it not its 2000 ports and remakes. Hes defintely not more recognizable given only really having that one game, but thats me. I think people tend to forget how many games failed to continue to progress due to bombing in sales. Shantae managed to survive a super late release on the handheld she was on, not even selling 10k copies, how many series do you know sold like that on their first game and still exist and do well critically now?

Also Nicalis doesnt deserve anything, so...sorry Quote, but youre owned by complete ****tards.
I'll post chances later

Yes, Cave Story has legacy despite having only one game, as it's the first Indie game that really shined in the mainstream internationaly (the only other indie series to have broken trough mainstream at that time was Touhou, but it was only in Japan). The legacy of Cave Story is more what this game means for indies rather than what the series is. However, I do agree that Nicalis deserves nothing.

Shantae got a revival, which is pretty different from an actual sequel, her series was innactive for 8 years. And for series that did not seel much at their beginings but is still active and doing well, I have a very good one. Touhou Project. You see, according to an interview, the combined sales of Touhou 1 and 2 when they were first sold was of 80. Part of this was due to them (and Touho 3, 4, and 5) releasnig on the Pc-98, which was pretty much already dead at that point. Then 2002 arrives, EoSD release, and it's a cultural phenomenom in Japan, enough to make itself known in the west, and for one of it's track to become one of the most iconic meme songs there is. And the series also has nearly 30 games. And a biannual convention that first hapened in 2004. And it's limited to only being sellable on only 1 day out of 3 at the Comiket, the convention where doujin games are the most present in Japan. And also it has like 3 high quality fananimes.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Shantae:
Chance: 5%
Has a vocal fanbase and a creator who wants in.
Has recent games coming out and whilst they've never been big sellers or lit the world on fire like Undertale, Cuphead, Shovel Knight, Cave Story or Minecraft have they do have a strong Nintendo presence and are s

However there's only five characters left, and unless there's an indie reserved slot(which is perfectly plausible seeing how Nindies are a big thing) I just can't see it happening. There's lots of companies that are close to Nintendo(Koei Tecmo being an obvious one) as well as a plethora of first parties. Even if there is an indie 'slot', there's no guarantee it'll be the Half Genie Hero.

Want: 50%
Indifference. Wouldn't hate her, she has fans, and if the rest of FP2 turned out to include no one I really hated I'd buy it with her in, but also wouldn't bother buying her myself as seperate DLC. Utter indifference.

Despite this statement:

And stop creating this forced narrative over those "smash hints", thats just you assuming things to fit your idea of WayForward.

I actually don't have a viewpoint on WayFoward as a company, I'm just parroting what I've seen on places like GameFAQS and here that answer Calamitas' question of why some people are against the creator. That's the reasons I've seen stated. Sorry man.

Although, yeah...I do think it is undignified for any creator to send artwork in unless requested. That part was me.

If Ubisoft did it too for Rayman's spirit, that's equally undignified.
However I can believe Ubisoft has enough clout with Nintendo to be approached about an Assassins Creed Mii outfit and a Rayman spirit after they worked on Mario + Rabbids.
Nintendo is protective of their properties so to give Ubisoft the reigns to Mario, their lead IP of all things, it would be surprising if they're not close enough to have that Mii outfit discussion.

Shantae is the third party I have absolutely no strong opinion on as an actual character and series.
I think the art and animation style of the series is really nice and there's a lot of Indies I like a lot less as a concept, but I don't really think she's a big enough face overall to make it into FP2 either.

Quote
Chance: 3%
Quote's probably the truest face of Indies...like how you could consider Pac-Man as the face of arcade games or Mario as the face of video games as a whole.

However he lacks the impassioned fanbase that Shantae has and I have to wonder if that'll work against him.

If that a fighter has been saved to represent indie titles he's in with a fighting chance, but I think Minecraft is more likely due to the sheer scale and success of the title.

Could definitely see a Mii outfit though.

Want: 53%
Now Cuphead is out, Quote is the Indie I want most at this point. But as he's sitting at only 3% more than Shantae that's not saying much.

I wouldn't be against him though and do think he's an important part of video game history.

 

[Shinuto]

Shantae:
Chance: 5%
Has a vocal fanbase and a creator who wants in.
Has recent games coming out and whilst they've never been big sellers or lit the world on fire like Undertale, Cuphead, Shovel Knight, Cave Story or Minecraft have they do have a strong Nintendo presence and are s

However there's only five characters left, and unless there's an indie reserved slot(which is perfectly plausible seeing how Nindies are a big thing) I just can't see it happening. There's lots of companies that are close to Nintendo(Koei Tecmo being an obvious one) as well as a plethora of first parties. Even if there is an indie 'slot', there's no guarantee it'll be the Half Genie Hero.

Want: 50%
Indifference. Wouldn't hate her, she has fans, and if the rest of FP2 turned out to include no one I really hated I'd buy it with her in, but also wouldn't bother buying her myself as seperate DLC. Utter indifference.

Despite this statement:

I actually don't have a viewpoint on WayFoward as a company, I'm just parroting what I've seen on places like GameFAQS and here that answer Calamitas' question of why some people are against the creator. That's the reasons I've seen stated. Sorry man.

Although, yeah...I do think it is undignified for any creator to send artwork in unless requested. That part was me.

If Ubisoft did it too for Rayman's spirit, that's equally undignified.
However I can believe Ubisoft has enough clout with Nintendo to be approached about an Assassins Creed Mii outfit and a Rayman spirit after they worked on Mario + Rabbids.
Nintendo is protective of their properties so to give Ubisoft the reigns to Mario, their lead IP of all things, it would be surprising if they're not close enough to have that Mii outfit discussion.

Shantae is the third party I have absolutely no strong opinion on as an actual character and series.
I think the art and animation style of the series is really nice and there's a lot of Indies I like a lot less as a concept, but I don't really think she's a big enough face overall to make it into FP2 either.

Quote
Chance: 3%
Quote's probably the truest face of Indies...like how you could consider Pac-Man as the face of arcade games or Mario as the face of video games as a whole.

However he lacks the impassioned fanbase that Shantae has and I have to wonder if that'll work against him.

If that a fighter has been saved to represent indie titles he's in with a fighting chance, but I think Minecraft is more likely due to the sheer scale and success of the title.

Could definitely see a Mii outfit though.

Want: 53%
Now Cuphead is out, Quote is the Indie I want most at this point. But as he's sitting at only 3% more than Shantae that's not saying much.

I wouldn't be against him though and do think he's an important part of video game history.

Nintendo had absolutely no obligation to use the artwork WF sent though, there was no agreement or arragements made. So whats the problem. We dont even know what spurred them to send it. Maybe Nintedo let other companies know to send in stuff, we cant say specific requests werr made but maybe a general request was made.

 

[Jomosensual]

Shantae

Chance 10 - Staying the same as the last time I rated her. Don't think this is going to happen because while spirits are back she's still an indie and there's been a pretty big effort to not put the indie characters in the game as playable. Shantae could be the indie to break through but I think that it's just more likely that we don't get playable indies in the game

Want 0 - Character doesn't really appeal to me and she's competition for The Knight, who I really want in the game. Not a great combo there. There's a few other indies I'd rather see first as well.


Quote(Was gonna copy and paste this one as well but searching Quote gives you a complete mess)

Chance 5 - There's a few reasons I could see this. Major one being the fact that he's considered the godfather of indie reps. I don't think this will happen due to the fact that, well, he's still an indie rep. With the effort they've been going through to not put indies as playable I don't think this will happen.

Want 20 - Wouldnt mind it but still competition for The Knight. It would be hard to say he doesn't deserve it but I wouldn't be super hyped or anything because of that reason.

Predictions
Saki 0.5%
Ray 0.75%

Noms:
Riptor x5

 

[BowserKing]

Shantae

Chance: 25%. With Min-Min being promoted from Spirit to Playable, Shantae's chance to be in Smash has been increased quite a bit. Also Shantae would help promote her most recent game. Overall, things are leaning towards her favour.

Want: 100%. She is my most Wanted Indie Rep, so her inclusion would be great. She would be fun to play as, with her transformation abilities giving her a boost of power and uniqueness. Overall, Shantae would be a great choice for Smash, but also in the Second Fighter's Pass (She is the main Third Party in my Wanted Second Pass)

Quote

Chance: 20%. Quotes chance of getting in has not changed as much, and with Shantae more likely now, Quote is basically the second most likely Indie rep. And while there are chances of him as a Mii Fostume and or a spirit, chances are still decent.

Want: 55%. He would be fun to play as on the other hand, and he does have decent potential as well. Overall, Quote would be a decent choice for Smash and his inclusion would help bring Indies Reps chance a bit higher.

Prediction: Saki and Ray (20%)

Noms: 3 for Returning stages and 2 for Boss: Ender Dragon

 

[Garteam]

Christina Aguilera's hit 1999 single
Chance: 10% - Shantae's got a fair bit going for her. She's highly requested, has multiple successful Indie releases, no longer has any spirit related complications, and a company that is very, VERY eager to see her join. However, the devil is in the details and one word in the previous sentence seriously harms her case: indie. So far we've seen 5 indie games represented in Smash (Bit. Trip, Shovel Knight, Undertale, Cuphead, and (funny enough) Shantae), all of which had non-fighter content. Sakurai seems to be pretty happy using supplementary content to give indies their due, rather than full playable characters. Coming from an English dev and thusly having a language barrier doesn't help.

Want: 55% - I have no strong feelings about Shantae either way. She could be fun, but I wouldn't lose sleep if she didn't get in. I do admire the dedication Wayforward has put into drumming up support for a Smash release though.

""
Chance: 15% - Quote's probably in the best place of many indies, but that's still not a great place to be. Cave Story started the original indie boom, therefore paving the road for future indies, which definitely gives the character a lot of historical significance. Plus, Cave Story is one of the few massive indie games with a Japanese creator, removing any issues regarding the language barrier. However, what was said about Shantae should also be said here, Smash traditionally hasn't been super receptive to playable indies in the past. I could see Quote's status as the Grandfather of Indie gaming propelling him about the others for a playable spot though, so I'll give him a little boost.

Want: 65% - I've only played the first hour or so of Cave Story, but I have some buddies of mine who like it. Plus, we don't have a ton of characters who use a firearm as their primary weapon, so I'm more than interested to see that explored further.

 

[fogbadge]

Nintendo had absolutely no obligation to use the artwork WF sent though, there was no agreement or arragements made. So whats the problem. We dont even know what spurred them to send it. Maybe Nintedo let other companies know to send in stuff, we cant say specific requests werr made but maybe a general request was made.

probably cause its comes across as a bit similar to the people demanding waluigi on twitter on every pic of the day

 

[Ninjaed]

Yes, Cave Story has legacy despite having only one game, as it's the first Indie game that really shined in the mainstream internationaly (the only other indie series to have broken trough mainstream at that time was Touhou, but it was only in Japan). The legacy of Cave Story is more what this game means for indies rather than what the series is. However, I do agree that Nicalis deserves nothing.

Shantae got a revival, which is pretty different from an actual sequel, her series was innactive for 8 years. And for series that did not seel much at their beginings but is still active and doing well, I have a very good one. Touhou Project. You see, according to an interview, the combined sales of Touhou 1 and 2 when they were first sold was of 80. Part of this was due to them (and Touho 3, 4, and 5) releasnig on the Pc-98, which was pretty much already dead at that point. Then 2002 arrives, EoSD release, and it's a cultural phenomenom in Japan, enough to make itself known in the west, and for one of it's track to become one of the most iconic meme songs there is. And the series also has nearly 30 games. And a biannual convention that first hapened in 2004. And it's limited to only being sellable on only 1 day out of 3 at the Comiket, the convention where doujin games are the most present in Japan. And also it has like 3 high quality fananimes.

Yep, people definitely underestimate just how big Touhou is in Japan. Reimu is the only other indie I could realistically see get in Smash, and even then I wouldn't say she's that likely (a shame, ZUN expressed interest to lend her to smash). Needless to say, that puts a damper on my expectations for all other indies.

 

[warpenguin55]

"":
Chance: 3%
While Min Min brought back a ton of characters into consideration, Indie reps were not one of them. And while I do understand that fan rules are made to be broken (like buildings? or people?), I still really don't have faith we'll get an Indie rep this time around

Want: 10%
No experience with him. He sounds cool but I'm firmly on the side of Team Cherry getting the indie rep.

Shantae
Chance: 5%
Shantae's chances are similar to Quote's, but slightly better due to a better history with Nintendo.

Want: 0%
Shantae doesn't interest me much. I don't think we get more than 1 indie rep, and as previously mentioned, I'm firmly on the side of Team Cherry getting the it.

Noms: Alex Mason x5

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Abstain on Quote

Shantae

Chance: 60%

Spirits being back on the table increases her chances dramatically. She's also been with Nintendo with a long time and is one of the highest fan requested characters. I think she's one of the biggest 3rd Party spirits from new franchises to have potential for an upgrade along Rayman.

Want: 100%

Her series is fun and she could bring a great moveset. I think she'd make a great fit in Smash, simple as that.

 

[Shinuto]

probably cause its comes across as a bit similar to the people demanding waluigi on twitter on every pic of the day

No, no it doesnt, its not even remotely similar.

 

[zferolie]

Dancing through the danger of speculation

Chance: 70%

SHantae's chances has improved greatly in my eyes due to last week. For one, we got a Spirit promoted, and thats good for all spirits. 2, Sakurai took a lot of time to say to expect more spirit battles to be changed in the future due to updates. I see this as saying we should expect more promotions is pass, either being spirit, mii costume, or Assist trophies.

It also feels that Sakurai is leading up to some sort of Indie character becoming plable, and that leaves I feel 3 big names. Shantae of course, due to her long nintendo History, Sakurai putting her spirit in the game just because they sent him artwork(they could have just ignored it, but they gave her 2 spirits and a smash tag), A team Cherry character(due to Nintendo being super close to them), or Reimu Hakurai(Due to Touhous MASSIVE size in japan). Of those, I feel the order goes Shantae, Reimu, then a Team CHerry character(hopefully Hornet)

I don't think Shovel Knight is sadly being upgraded, as I really feel if any assist trophy is getting upgraded, its Waluigi due to the fan demand. I can see them adding a Mii costume for him though.

Shantae also has other things going for her, and its actually tied to Mii costumes. People in the above posts seem to think all Indies are just getting mii costumes, but Shantae's playstyle does not fit a mii costume at all, non of them. She doesn't fight with her fists so brawler is out, She doesn't shoot a lot so gunner is out, and she only once used a sword so mii swordfighter is a big stretch. So she will most likely NOT get a mii costume, which means she either is getting as a full playable character or she doesn't. The other 2 top indies can work as mii costumes too(Reimu Gunner and Knight Swordfighter)

Another thing going for her is Sakurai seems to be making the DLC fighters all have something unique or new. Honestly only Bylthe doesn't really. This leads me to think any fighter getting in has to have something completly unique to them, and Shantae brings animal transformations, which would change up her playstyle on the fly. Thats also why I have reimu as the second most likely, due to she could bring her grazing system to the game, and the Knight or Hornet don't have too much completly unique stuff to smash.

Want: 100%

SHe has been my top wanted fighter for years now, with Reimu and Medusa close behind. She would be a completly unique character, shes fun, shes another girl, and I would love to see wayfoward represented in smash. They are by far the biggest western indie devs, and they have done a ton to help even japanese developers(like the bloodstained stuff) So She absouletly deserves to be is Smash.

Quote this.

CHance: 10%

The first big name indie other then Reimu, but he made a spalsh worldwide. However, I think a lot of the behind the scenes stuyff with his developer create a huge issue for him. Honestly he works too well as a mii gunner that I think they will make him that.

Want: 50%

I'm indifferent. wouldn't like or hate him getting in.

Nom: Cynthia from Pokemon x5

 

[Sari]

Legacy? With one game that gets endlessly ported by the hacks at Nicalis?

Hes defintely not more recognizable given only really having that one game, but thats me.

While I don't Quote is all that likely myself, this easily takes the cake as the most biased and ignorant comment so far.

Ratings coming later.

 

[Shinuto]

While I don't Quote is all that likely myself, this easily takes the cake as the most biased and ignorant comment so far.

Ratings coming later.

So if Quote only had the one game in 2004 and never got rereleased he still be seen as just recognizable and likely?

 

[Sari]

So if Quote only had the one game in 2004 and never got rereleased he still be seen as just recognizable and likely?

Recognizable? Yeah, Quote would still be pretty recognizable since his game helped influence a ton of other indies even before the Wii ports of Cave Story. Obviously the rereleases helped boost his notability more and made him even more recognizable, which can be said about any other rerelease in general (especially one to a big system like the Wii).

More likely in Smash without the rereleases? Probably not as much since he got ported to Nintendo systems after the initial PC release. But thankfully we live in a universe where those ports/rereleases did happen so I don't see why it matters. Conversely I could ask: if Shantae only had her first GBC game would she still be recognizable/likely?

 

[zferolie]

Recognizable? Yeah, Quote would still be pretty recognizable since his game helped influence a ton of other indies even before the Wii ports of Cave Story. Obviously the rereleases helped boost his notability more and made him even more recognizable, which can be said about any other rerelease in general (especially one to a big system like the Wii).

More likely in Smash without the rereleases? Probably not as much since he got ported to Nintendo systems after the initial PC release. But thankfully we live in a universe where those ports/rereleases did happen so I don't see why it matters. Conversely I could ask: if Shantae only had her first GBC game would she still be recognizable/likely?

Yeah if Shantae only had the GBC game she wouldn't be a possible at all for smash

 

[kevinthedot]

Shantae

Chance 20%
I'd say 1 in 5 is about right given the pass has 5 spots left. Cause honestly her chances are higher than they were before, but she's still got the biggest hurdle to get through: Nintendo and Sakurai's whims. At this point, I think she's got everything in her corner to get in: proper background and history, great moveset potential (especially after Seven Sirens gave her quick transforms practically tailored for Smash), and certainly a recognizable demand given her spirit inclusion. So if she got in it wouldn't exactly be surprising in that regard, but if she gets picked by Nintendo/Sakurai is a total coin flip still. It's really a question of if Nintendo wants an Indie rep or not given their costume route they've been doing for indie representation already. If we knew they want a full fighter from an Indie, then I'd put her chances at like 90%, but as we don't that's a huge question.
Basically, the question for whether or not Shantae can get in is more whether or not Nintendo wants to give an Indie a full fighter slot. We got 5 more times to see if they decided that, so 20% in my eyes.

Want 100%
My most wanted by far. I think she'd make for a fantastic fighter and one of the few options in the DLC that'd be a "fast" type rather than something more slow or long range. She'd probably be more lightweight with a lot of fast moves (her hair whip as a like frame 3 jab just seems obvious) with some high mobility and "dancing" incorporated into the regular moves. Then give her her Transformations and/or Magic as specials and smash attacks for a strong finish (imagine dancing around people racking up damage with her regular moves, then having a slower, harder hitting smash where she turns into the elephant for a second as a way to end it).
Also, as someone super into 3D modeling/animation, I'd love to see the Smash team's take on a 3D model and animations for Shantae. I imagine they'd make her look fantastic. She's also got an excellent library of music to fight to, and a lot of fun stage possibilities (would be hilarious if Squid Baron showed up as a stage boss a la Yellow Devil).

Quote
Abstain

Saki & Ray Prediction: (10%)

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

Might need to do "research" on this one.

Chance: 12%
Spirits are now on the table thanks to Noodle Lady. I once considered only first parties for that but now i have changed my mind realizing how stupid that sounds.

While i do consider the fact that no indie has ever achieved playable status in Smash before. Undertale, which probably is literally one of the most popular video games of the last decade (ESPECIALLY in Japan) failed to make it in playable status, it makes me barely hopeful for her. Still, i still consider her the second most likely indie at this point. It was literally over a year since Smash Ult's release and the negotiations for her spirit were likely done FAR eariler. I think enough time has passed that they may have reconsidered adding her to Smash (probably in 2019)

Want: 20%

Im not super interesed in her, but i see the appeal. I haven't played any of her games outside of emulating the GBC one, but i did bought her in Blaster Master Zero so i can imagine how she would play out.

Mr. Traveler.

Chance: 10%

Unfortunately, as much as it pains to sell him short, he isn't likely. Yes he is an icon among indies, beign one of the earliest successes of a large caliber coming from a small developer. But it has never gotten a sequel or spin off. Still, it has been ported to multiple systems of recent generations, it has been featured in more minor crossovers such as Blade Strangers, i guess the possibility is always there and-


-oh wait, the company that owns him did a bad thing oh no! He can't be in Smash now! IN fact, we most remove Snake and the Belmonts, Konami did bad things too! Remember #****Konami? We can't be hypocrites? How about Crapcom? Remove them too because they are greedy and bad. Remove Sonic because SEGA is an American Traitor! (don't ask) remove Joker because Atlus is............homophobe/transphobe! yeah, because one Twitter fella said so! Remove all bad companies!

In fact, we should exclude Sora since he is owned by the Walt Disney Company, the satan of companies, and we know Nintendo is innocent, they are japanese, and based japan is always innocent! (forget all the japanese companies i mentioned above you dummy!)
......


...........

Yeah im just taking the piss out of these "arguments".

Want:50%

I enjoyed Cave Story ever since i was a child, and i would be okay with this inclusion. I would take him over Shantae, Shovel Knight, and especially over Reimu's overrated ass anyday. Im biased here, no doubt about that.


and yet, im not super compelled in his inclusion, probably because im not super supportive of a character that doesn't seem likely, unless it's someone im SUPER passionate about, like i was with Simon. Still, i probably would be more excited for him once he is revealed. I just hope his look is more based on his appereance in the in-game artwork found in the credits, rather than the Super-Deformed stuff.

Spoiler: better than super deformed quote.

Noms:
Jason and Sophia (Blaster Master Zero) X5

 

[Shinuto]

The problem is Nicalis genuinely awful and unlike those other companies doesnt have the clout to make up for it.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Wait, why are the creators annoying?

I find Matt Bozon's constant campaigning to get her in Smash very unprofessional. I get it, the man's a fan, but that's not behavior I expect from developers. Given how vocal he's been and how little he's gotten in return, at this point it comes across as desperate.

Legacy? With one game that gets endlessly ported by the hacks at Nicalis? No one would remember it nearly as much were it not its 2000 ports and remakes. Hes defintely not more recognizable given only really having that one game, but thats me. I think people tend to forget how many games failed to continue to progress due to bombing in sales. Shantae managed to survive a super late release on the handheld she was on, not even selling 10k copies, how many series do you know sold like that on their first game and still exist and do well critically now?

Also Nicalis doesnt deserve anything, so...sorry Quote, but youre owned by complete ****tards.
I'll post chances later

Yeah, I'm sure Cave Story bombed, that's why it keeps getting ported to every console in existence despite being readily available as a legal free download on PC.

The problem is Nicalis genuinely awful and unlike those other companies doesnt have the clout to make up for it.

Clout? What are you talking about? Companies are approached for their characters, or they aren't.

What, you think Sakurai's gonna have second doubts about Konami, and then realize "oh no, if we don't put a Konami character in Smash, they'll stop putting games on Switch", because frankly that's ridiculous. There's no morality in business, they'll go for whatever character they want.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Shouldntae
Chance: 1%
While Min Min's inclusion is a great sign for spirited characters now having a non-zero shot for getting promoted to playavle status, it doesn't automatically make those characters more likely. Shantae still suffers from the same problems she always had. I can't stress enough how her seniority means jack when her series was basically DOA in the beginning. First game tanked so hard the IP fell into dormancy for nearly half the franchise's lifetime. It's more succesfull now, sure, but despite being older than most popular indie-titles I wouldn't call it an advantage since some particular indie games that are far younger in comparison did better both critically and commercially. Specifically games such as Undertale, Cuphead and the two indie knights. 3/4 are already represented without being playable but that only puts Shantae on a lower pedestal. Her being a spirit compared to the SK Assist and the Sans/Cuphead costumes paints a clear hierarchy to me. I can't realistically imagine Nintendo choosing Shantae of all characters to get the upgrade. What would have changed for her? There's a new game out rn I guess but it likely didn't aline with the planning of FP2. Not that I believe they'd shill it anyhow. Despite her demand, I simply think she'd lose priority to atleast half of indie-characters popular in speculation.

Want: 0%
I don't hold some grudge against her and I've stopped letting her supportbase affect my views on her. I still don't much care for Shantae tho. I have never played the games nor do I have much desire to do so. Doesn't help that I've heard the new game is pretty average and a bit of a step back from the previous instalment tho I will admit I'll probably have to try out Pirate's Curse eventually. Besides that, I've made it no secret that I think there's some other Metroidvania indie game they would and should prioritize a challenger pack for.

0-2'd in Kfad
Chance: 5%
Funnily enough, Cave Story is another indie title younger than the Shantae series, albeit not by much. It too has seniority on its side, difference is it actually has the legacy for it to matter. I see the term "Granddaddy of indie-games" getting thrown around alot in Quote's presence so that definitely says something. If Nintendo were to choose an Indie rep based on influence then Quote would almost definitely be that pick though I think it's a matter of wether Nintendo values that over general popularity. Heard Nicalis is a bit of a shady dev but I don't think that matters when Konami is allowed major representation and Koichi Sugiyama was negotiated with.

Want: 1%
I actually dreamt about Quote's inclusion and remember being disappointed him not being the specific Indie rep I wanted. I would understand it tho and he definitely isn't undeserving. Cave Story being so historic for indie games does give me some interest and as a gunner Quote would be quite unique. I'd still prefer the Knight, that's just how I roll.

Saki: 1.58%
Ray: 2.17%
Magolor x5

Another thing going for her is Sakurai seems to be making the DLC fighters all have something unique or new. Honestly only Bylthe doesn't really. This leads me to think any fighter getting in has to have something completly unique to them, and Shantae brings animal transformations, which would change up her playstyle on the fly. Thats also why I have reimu as the second most likely, due to she could bring her grazing system to the game, and the Knight or Hornet don't have too much completly unique stuff to smash.

If Byleth is an exception then I don't think the rule exist at all frankly. Banjo is also pretty straightforward compared to the others. Also, would the Knight's Soul mechanic not be an unique enough gimmick?

 

[Shinuto]

I find Matt Bozon's constant campaigning to get her in Smash very unprofessional. I get it, the man's a fan, but that's not behavior I expect from developers. Given how vocal he's been and how little he's gotten in return, at this point it comes across as desperate.

Yeah, I'm sure Cave Story bombed, that's why it keeps getting ported to every console in existence despite being readily available as a legal free download on PC.

Clout? What are you talking about? Companies are approached for their characters, or they aren't.

What, you think Sakurai's gonna have second doubts about Konami, and then realize "oh no, if we don't put a Konami character in Smash, they'll stop putting games on Switch", because frankly that's ridiculous. There's no morality in business, they'll go for whatever character they want.

Your post reeks of idiocy. If cave story never got remade not if it bombed.

 

[jamesster445]

Shantae and Quote

Chance: 50%
Want: 50%

I have no strong feelings one way or the other for either of these characters.

Nominations: Jin Kazama x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Your post reeks of idiocy. If cave story never got remade not if it bombed.

I like how you can't manage basic syntax and I'm the idiot.

 

[RouffWestie]

Shantae
Chance: 12%
She's a popular request in the West and has a long history, though she never really broke out of obscurity until the past couple of years. Also has a noticeable growing presence in Japan. I don't think she's getting anything more in Ultimate aside from possibly a future Mii Costume. Negotiating with Western properties for a complete fighter pack seems to be a balancing act for Nintendo. Banjo & Kazooie is the only Western fighter pack so far; he was acknowledged to be a massive request, so it looks like they decided to bite the bullet for the sake of including him.
Want: 12%
Liked her a lot going into Smash 4, then she kind of fell off my radar. Being able to fall back on Crusade even if I did really really want to play as her kind of makes me feel a little indifferent. She's still someone I'm more familiar with so I'd probably still take her over a lot of other newcomers.

Quote
Chance: 6%
I don't think Cave Story was a franchise Nintendo would have considered when deciding Ultimate's DLC. The game has its fans, but I think Nintendo would be looking for something with more to gain from the cost of making the whole fighter pack. I really don't see Nintendo intending to add an "indie rep," so I think however much he is seen as the grandfather of indie gaming is kind of irrelevant to his chances.
Want: 11%
Cave Story was a fun game that didn't really leave any incredible impression on me. I at least know the character and would recognize the content he'd come with. I'm a little indifferent to him at this point.

Nominations: Pokemon Mystery Dungeon content x5

 

[Shinuto]

I like how you can't manage basic syntax and I'm the idiot.

Phone post sorry was in a rush.

 

[fogbadge]

No, no it doesnt, its not even remotely similar.

i would say asking him to put a character in smash in any context is at least remotely similar

 

[zferolie]

Shouldntae
Chance: 1%
While Min Min's inclusion is a great sign for spirited characters now having a non-zero shot for getting promoted to playavle status, it doesn't automatically make those characters more likely. Shantae still suffers from the same problems she always had. I can't stress enough how her seniority means jack when her series was basically DOA in the beginning. First game tanked so hard the IP fell into dormancy for nearly half the franchise's lifetime. It's more succesfull now, sure, but despite being older than most popular indie-titles I wouldn't call it an advantage since some particular indie games that are far younger in comparison did better both critically and commercially. Specifically games such as Undertale, Cuphead and the two indie knights. 3/4 are already represented without being playable but that only puts Shantae on a lower pedestal. Her being a spirit compared to the SK Assist and the Sans/Cuphead costumes paints a clear hierarchy to me. I can't realistically imagine Nintendo choosing Shantae of all characters to get the upgrade. What would have changed for her? There's a new game out rn I guess but it likely didn't aline with the planning of FP2. Not that I believe they'd shill it anyhow. Despite her demand, I simply think she'd lose priority to atleast half of indie-characters popular in speculation.

Want: 0%
I don't hold some grudge against her and I've stopped letting her supportbase affect my views on her. I still don't much care for Shantae tho. I have never played the games nor do I have much desire to do so. Doesn't help that I've heard the new game is pretty average and a bit of a step back from the previous instalment tho I will admit I'll probably have to try out Pirate's Curse eventually. Besides that, I've made it no secret that I think there's some other Metroidvania indie game they would and should prioritize a challenger pack for.

0-2'd in Kfad
Chance: 5%
Funnily enough, Cave Story is another indie title younger than the Shantae series, albeit not by much. It too has seniority on its side, difference is it actually has the legacy for it to matter. I see the term "Granddaddy of indie-games" getting thrown around alot in Quote's presence so that definitely says something. If Nintendo were to choose an Indie rep based on influence then Quote would almost definitely be that pick though I think it's a matter of wether Nintendo values that over general popularity. Heard Nicalis is a bit of a shady dev but I don't think that matters when Konami is allowed major representation and Koichi Sugiyama was negotiated with.

Want: 1%
I actually dreamt about Quote's inclusion and remember being disappointed him not being the specific Indie rep I wanted. I would understand it tho and he definitely isn't undeserving. Cave Story being so historic for indie games does give me some interest and as a gunner Quote would be quite unique. I'd still prefer the Knight, that's just how I roll.

Saki: 1.58%
Ray: 2.17%
Magolor x5


If Byleth is an exception then I don't think the rule exist at all frankly. Banjo is also pretty straightforward compared to the others. Also, would the Knight's Soul mechanic not be an unique enough gimmick?

Well i really dont get why so many people on this board just hate everything about shantae, and dont present all the facts.

Want to know why this first game bombed? It was on the GBC almost a year after the DS was released. Critics game the game overwhelmingly positive reviews and it is still considered one of the best GBC games ever, due to how much it pushed the system.

Also remember, wayforward wanted to keep making shantae games after that, but they didnt have the money to self publish. They with shopping around for shantae way before the forst game too, even at SNES times.

If any of these other indie games came out at the same time shantae did, they would be, as you put it, DOA as well. The landscape for indie games is MUCH different then it was back in 2002. Think undertale would even release back then? Nope, not at all. So stop using that as an excuse.

Second, undertale and cuphead got mii costumes, and shovel knight an assist trophy. What do they all have in common? 1 hit wonder games. There is no way to prove any other those games could servive in a long series, so they get a mii costume, or at least i see that thinking from Sakurai. Almost every character in smash, especially dlc, are from a big franchise, or a popular series of games. None of the other indies in the game fit that. So thats a big point in shantaes favor.

Right now the 2 biggest contenders for an indie rep are Reimu, and a Hollow Knight character. Reimu comes from a MASSIVE franchise made by just 1 guy. I cannot even begine to say how much tougou has influsnced the gaming landscape in japan, with many indie and doujin and others getting their start in touhou fan works, and not just games too. Its biggest hurdle is the lack of awareness outside of japan, but honestly i feel its either reimu or shantae being our first indie rep. The Knight or Hornet are in theird mostly due to nintendo ties and they are publishing the sequel.

So please, you and everyone else. Stop this uncalled gor hate on shantae and just ignoring facts just to push your own ahendas. Its sad, pathetic, and hurts speculation as a whole. If you arent going to actually think and rate, dont even bother posting about the character.

 

[amageish]

Well. This thread sure is fun today...

First, on indies in general: I don't get why people think they're wholly out of the running. Yes, Sans and Cuphead are both big indie games that are confined to Mii Costumes, but I didn't see anyone yesterday say "Well, Monster Hunter and Resident Evil are Capcom's biggest franchises and they're not playable, therefore we won't get another Capcom rep as it would have been one of those two." That said, I don't think any individual indie is all too likely, just that people underestimate the broad concept...

Shantae

Chance: 8%. She's a big longstanding-if-inconsistent-in-amount-of-standing indie who had a lot of fan demand during the ballot era, but she's western and has an uncertain amount of presence in Japan. Her fan support and continued relevance could push her to the top of the pack for indie games, but I think it's still a rocky road for her.

At the very least, I do kind of doubt she'd be a Mii Costume. I don't think her body type could be put onto a Mii without it looking awkward... Also, remember the backlash when Disney released a bodysuit based on Maui from Moana as a Halloween costume? Yeah. That. Moving on...

Want: 80%. I really want to like Shantae more then I do, but her general gameplay just doesn't click with me. In fact, I think I got more out of the silly side-modes with new characters/mechanics then I did Half Genie Hero's main story. The "Ultimate Sleepover" was my favourite, honestly. I liked being able to float via sleeping and summon sheep... She'd still be fun to see though and I can imagine her transformations would make for a unique and exciting moveset.

Quote

Chance: 7.5%. Quote is a longstanding-if-primarily-through-remakes indie who has had a lot of impact on the larger industry, but he's owned by a western company in spite of his Japanese origin. His iconic reputation as the grandfather of indie games could push him to the top of the pack for indie games, but I think it's still a rocky road for him.

Also, unlike Shantae, I could see him being Mii Costumed. He just fits easier.

Want: Abstain. Do I think that Nicalis' conduct would stop Quote from getting into Smash? Nope! Would Nicalis' conduct make me have mixed feelings about Quote in Smash? Uh, yes. There are plenty of companies that have done bad things in Smash (Nintendo itself included), but Nicalis being a publishing company that allegedly would just straight-up ghost people whose games they had agreed to publish (when, you know, agreeing to publish games and proceeding to publish them is kind of the point of a publishing company) while also being unable to keep a positive/safe work enviroment for their employees is just... Yikes. So many yikes. If Pixel maintained the rights to Quote, then I'd welcome him into Smash with open arms, but with Nicalis... I'd be happy and feel guilty for my happiness.

Nominations: Moogle x 5
Predictions: Saki's AT being removed for Ultimate still confuses me to this day... Anyway, Saki = 5% / RAY = 3%.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

who is owned by Nicalis. You know, the studio that did some really controversial stuff, and who even publicly said that Nintendo sucked once.

I don't think Nintendo cares that much about collaborating with a controversial company, given their partnership with Tencent and the Castlevania/Bomberman/Metal Gear content in Smash despite Konami being Konami.