Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 454: Papyrus (Undertale)

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THESE CHARACTERS ARE LOCKED DOWN, NOMINATIONS FOR THEM ARE OBSOLETE

Day 413: Mii Costume: Quote (Cave Story)
Day 414: Paper Mario (Mario/Paper Mario)
Day 415: Reporter & Wrestler (Rhythm Heaven)
Day 416: Ryo Hazuki (Shenmue)
Day 417: Big Daddy (BioShock)
Day 418: Mii Costume: Hollow Knight (Hollow Knight)
Day 419: Gex (Gex)


Not much to say about this schedule. We'll have our first two Mii Costume ratings, so it'll be interesting to see how that goes.

Your new top seven consists of Segata Sanshiro, Gnar, Chun-Li, Bubsy, Devolver Digital rep, Decidueye, and Hornet.


Segata Sanshiro x105
Gnar (League of Legends) x100
Chun-Li x95
Bubsy x90
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x90
Decidueye x80
Hornet (Hollow Knight) x80

100 - 51

Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x75
Falinks x74
Meowth x69
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Alucard (Castlevania) x65
Concept: Darksiders rep x60
Concept: New Zelda character x57
Sirfetch'd x55

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Earthworm Jim x50
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Concept: A character who isn't the star of their own game x45
Concept: Contra rep x40
Minato Arisato x40
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
Terra Branford x35
[Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x35
Boss: Ender Dragon x33
Concept: DLC music packs x30
[Rerate] Kratos x30
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x30
Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone) x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25
Concept: Level-5 rep x25

Under 25

Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x21
Ahri (League of Legends) x20
Junko & Monokuma x20
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x16
Concept: Returning stages x16
Zeraora x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
Guardian (Destiny) x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gooigi x10
[Rerate] Steve x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
Axel Stone x10
Concept: Nippon Ichi rep x10
Black Shadow x8
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Magolor x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
3 Mage Sisters x2

Sirfetch'd cuts through 50 noms.

Concept: Level-5 rep reaches 25 noms.

A new challenger approaches! Cooking Mama, with 5 noms.
 
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Travis Touchdown

Chance 50 - Think theres a good shot here. NMH3 is one of the big switch releases for the year so theres reason for Travis to get picked. He's fairly requested. Marvelous also had some DLC spirits from Deamon X Machina happen as one of the first spirit events so there's proof Nintendo was thinking about their company as one with content worthy for Smash. Overall though, that could all stop short of a playable character as we've seen with other companies like Ubisoft and Tecmo so far. I think there's a good chance of this happening but I'm not leaning towards saying yes to it just yet

Want 60 - Although I don't know much about him Travis seems pretty cool. Easy to do moveset and his personality seemingly fits well into Smash. There's significantly worse picks out there.

Predict
Quote Mii Costume - 15%

Noms
Falinks x5
 
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Travis Touchdown

Chance: 50%
I could see it going either way. Smash would be a good way to promote NMH3, and even the creator wants him in. However, we still don't know much about where third-parties stand in this Pass, since our first reveal was ARMS.
Want: 85%
I think he'd be a good fit. Aside from the beam katana, Travis has several wrestling moves, and they could even slip in some attacks from Travis Strikes Again. Plus, I'm a sucker for self-aware characters.

Nominations: [Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5
 

Sari

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Travis Touchdown

Chance: 40%
  • Popular request.
  • Series is extremely close to Nintendo.
  • New big and shiny game coming out this year means he could be a promotional pick like Bayonetta or Byleth.
  • Suda51 expressing interest for Travis in Smash and meeting with Sakurai last year.
It's hard to think of things Travis has going against him apart from general competition. He's pretty much the Ultimate equivalent of Bayonetta in the SSB4 days except with arguably more things going for him.

Also Travis is in no way too inappropriate for Smash. As far as Travis' attacks with his katana go, they'd be no worse than Snake's neck-snapping or Bayonetta/Joker's guns. The only aspect of him that couldn't make it into Smash would be his sword charging animation (for obvious reasons), but they could either just change it to a regular charging animation or just not implement the feature altogether.

Want: 70%
I always wanted to get into the NMH series but was too busy focusing on buying first party games when I was a young lad in the Wii days. Although I have yet to actually play the games as a result of this, I'd be totally down for Travis getting in. He's a hilarious and cool character who would definitely stand out from the rest of the Smash cast. Also I would love for the first two games to get Switch ports.

My profile pic as a Mii Costume chance prediction: 43.82%

Nominations:
Axel Stone x5

though I am curious why not just straight up rate Quote? 53.79%.
When I first started nomming this we had just rated Quote not too long ago. I thought people would just throw out another Quote rating by saying other indies would get in first, so after seeing some other Mii Costume concepts being nominated on I wanted to give this a shot. Once Axel gets locked into the schedule I'll probably start voting for Quote again (well either him or a BotW2 character).
 
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Hairy-palmed Marth

Chance: 50%
Right now I don't know how to rate characters. The announcement of the ARMS character really upended my expectations for this upcoming Pass, and come June I'll probably have a definitive answer. For now, I'll be rating characters as if first-parties and third-parties are equally likely as the focus of the Pass.

So, Travis. The protagonist of one of the most notorious third party series to be heavily aligned with Nintendo in the last couple of years. Sure, Phoenix Wright he ain't, but he's still recognizable. His upcoming game is one that Nintendo's heavily promoting, to levels that I haven't seen outside of DQXI for a Switch game. It seems to be positioned as one of the Switch's heavy hitters for the year. Aside from that, Travis has some pretty decent demand - he isn't Lloyd levels, but for a character of his stature he's not half bad. He'd bring a unique moveset to the table, along with a lot of personality and attitude. Sakurai is friends with Suda, and Marvelous, who owns the IP, is already represented in the game through Daemon X Machina Spirits. All in all, a solid chance to get in.

Want: 90%
It's so cool that No More Heroes gets to level up from that big Wii series to that big Nintendo series. The Switch's offerings have all been very high profile with a more hardcore audience, so this gives NMH the recognition it deserves.

Well, here's hoping. People know about it, but if they don't buy the game, we won't get more of it. We'll see.

Anyway Travis for Smash let's go

Noms: Chun-Li x5
Quote Mii prediction: could go either way, but let's say 23.97%
 

amageish

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Travis Touchdown

Chance: 50%. I see a lot of people saying he'd be a good surprise pick, but he seems like a good not-especially-surprising pick? He's an popular character with a long Nintendo history and an upcoming game on a Nintendo platform. His creator has expressed interest in him getting into Smash several times. I'd say he checks off all the boxes for a likely character. It's just a matter of if Nintendo makes him a priority.

That said, does anyone have a source for Marvelous owning Travis Touchdown and not just publishing the games? As I'm fairly certain Suda has kept the IP with Grasshopper Studios. Heck, it even has appeared in a Nindie Direct, when Marvelous is definitely not an indie company. I don't think the Marvelous spirits really affect his chances that much anyway, as he has so many other things going for him, but still.

Want: Abstain. I'm not really an action game fan, but I think NMH in Smash would be very cool. The trailer at The Game Awards for NMH3 was probably my highlight of the night, with the misdirection being super funny.

Nominations: Level-5 Rep x 5.

I've never done predictions before, but let's go: 39.4%...
 
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Travis Touchdown

Chance 45%: I might be lowballing but I'm biased here so I want to keep my chance score in check. Nintendo seems to be promoting No More Heroes 3 for the Switch not unlike how they did with bayonetta 2, dispite not having a direct hand in the games conception. Suda and Sakurai are also good friends, and Suda has asked Sakurai if Travis could be in Smash before. Suda51 is even a special thanks in the credits of Smash Bros. Brawl. If Ultimate is the all in fan service game, maybe Saks will throw in a favor for a special friend. Most Wii users are at least aware of the No More Heroes franchise, even if they haven't played it. I thought Nintendo revealing the story trailer for NMH3 at the game awards was... interesting, and I saw a lot of people saying that the trailer will make them check out the game. That trailer also got a lot of people wondering if he'll grace Smash. his inclusion could be the push he needs for his new game to sell really well...

Still, be all that as it may, realistically I think that No More Heroes as a franchise still hasn't made massive waves in gaming; a lot of people still don't know who he is or have even played his series. Travis could be a neat promotional pick but being honest, there are objectively still plenty of bigger name legacy picks that probably deserve the Smash character treatment more than Travis. Not to mention I think some people might complain about having another sword user in smash, even if his is less medieval high fantasy and more dollar store lightsaber. I personally think Travis is cool, but in aesthetic and moves, I could see him being a tough sell for standing out against the rest of the Smash roster.

Want 90%: Here's where my bias shows. I love the No More Heroes franchise and I love Travis' surface level and complicated aesthetic. No More Heroes was my first above teen rated game when I was a young'un, and I at once enjoyed in an edgy way the cartoony violence, but also Travis rash, rude and crude 'tude. Travis, as designed intentionally by Suda, is surface level a rule of cool character. His aesthetic and motif is to be cool and flashy before having a point to his abilities or the situations he finds himself in. Part of the fun of Travis in Smash would be turning you're brain off and saying "This guy has style. he's cool." in a very punk rock mixed with action samurai movie kind of vibe. Dig beneath the surface tohugh, and Travis as a character is that guy who thinks he's cool, but everyone kind of thinks he's actually a dork and a jerk trying to be something he's not. He spits out zappy one liners that in reality would come out as kind of cringey if you tried to use them in real life, he lives in a crappy motel, he likes... gentlemen's anime and manga, he's not exactly a gentleman to the real women in his games. All of these things could blend to make a character whose moves and movements are surface level cool, while his voice lines, taunts, and victory screens could give off his cocky air that you love to hate.

Moveset: Travis has an interesting blend of ideas not seen in Smash, especially if they go with his (imo) coolest feature from No More Heroes 2. Travis wields beam katanas, basically lazer swords. He slashes with heavy, aggressive moves as his sword leaves pretty glowing trails behind it. Travis can slash with his sword until in runs out of power, to which he has to recharge it. Travis can also slash his sword in high or low positions, as well as charge his strikes to make his sword thicker and unleash very large, flashy, heavy slashes with a lightning particle effect to unload heavy damage onto foes.

In No More Heroes 2, Travis can wield Rose Nasty, a set of two beam katanas. though you get these late game, Travis is seen with them on the cover art of NMH2

No More Heroes 2 cover art.jpg

Travis could use Rose Nasty primarily for his sword moves and he could stand out as Smash' first dual wielding sword user.

On top of his sword(s), Travis also uses wrestling holds and suplexes to fight people. Travis would certainly look unique if he full nelsons the whole Smash cast with his grabs and uses a different pro wrestling suplex for each of his throws.

If that weren't enough, in the 2019 NMH spinoff Travis Strikes again, Travis gains some new skills, namely the Death Glove. His Death Glove is basically a Nintendo power glove that enables him to use a wide variety of skills, including lazers, powerful punches, healing, barriers, and more. Suda has said Travis will still use his death glove in NMH3, so I'll count it as something that could offer more moveset potential.

Music: Travis fighting style isn't the only thing that gives off a punk rock, high octane action vibe. No More Heroes is known among it's fan for a variety of unique, experimental, and rocking tunes for stages and character battles. Here's a sample of a few of my favorites:


Stage: Alright this will be my last point to gush about and try to sell the character since I really could go on all day (could you imagine if I went into what his spirits in Smash could look like?), but I wanted to include a stage idea since it could help further differentiate Travis from every other smash character. No More Heroes as a series doesn't have a lot of consistent set pieces, Travis tends to move around a lot and only fight in one place for a single boss battle. Still, one area that is consistent in the series is Travis' home, the Motel No More Heroes.

motel NMH.jpg

A shabby motel would certainly be unique, and different from any other kind of stage in Smash thus far. Layout could be the parking lot/lower level of the motel, stairs leading up to the upper level, a roof to fight on, and maybe throw in two or three cars and Travis motorcycle the Schpeltiger (if it doesn't show up in his moveset) in the parking lot and a vending machine to jump on to spice the ground level up a bit.

Predict: Quote Mii Costume 30%

Nominate: Toxtricity x5
 

BowserKing

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Travis Touchdown

Chance: 25%. He has a lot going for him to appear in smash. His franchise is quite popular, plus with a new game coming out, his chance could rise for him to be a promotional pick. Of course there is some competition, but it's not as strong as many others. Still, he has a big chance to appear in this gamer or sequels.

Want: 70%. He would be fun to play as, and he has lots of potential in both moveset, stage and the opponents he could fight. While he may not get to do certain stuff due to the content rating, but that did not stop some characters from getting in, speaking of which, I can see him fighting against Snake, Bayonetta and Joker in a free for all. Overall, he would be a fun addition to the roaster, and has potential to be a great choice of a fighter.

Prediction: Quote Mii Costume (15%)

Noms: 2 for Concept: Pokeball Pokémon Promotion and 3 for New Zelda Rep
 

warpenguin55

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Travis
Chance: 40%
Travis has some nice stuff going for him. He has a game coming out on the switch, there isn't a ton of competition from the same developer. At the same time, I think the potential ratings issues might be enough to keep him out.

Want: 20%
I have no attachment to this character. He isn't a dumb idea for a DLC pick, so thats why i give him a 20 instead of a 0.


Predict: Quote Mii Costume: 45%

Noms: Gnar x5
 
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Ninjaed

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Travis Touchdown

Chance: 15%
Yup, I gave a pretty big prediction score yet I'm rating him fairly low. Reason for that is No More Heroes selling around 0.5-0.6 million units in total. It's not bad, not bad at all. But even though ARMS got a rep, 3rd parties are still in the run. That puts Travis in a bit of a tight spot. Thankfully, history with Nintendo is a big plus and NMH3 did get announced at E3, which is nothing to scoff at. All hinges on Nintendo's plans with that series and Suda51.

Want: 60%
Too sleepy to write stuff in details. Travis would be fun, his humour would be fun, and I want to see MkLeo fap his controller while playing his character. Just like you did on Wii to charge up his saber.

Predictions: Quote as costume - 64%

Nominations: Junko & Monokuma x5
 
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Sid-cada

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Travis Touchdown

Chance - 35% - If there was going to be an indie character, Travis is a very strong contender. He has a decent amount of requests and the creator wants him in, so it's not like he's too bad. However, his games were never million sellers, and he hasn't quite reached the notoriety levels of many of the smash-fandom's or gaming in general's pedigree. He has a fairly decent shot, but I won't hold my breath given how unpredictable the DLC's direction is going..

Want - 50% - He exists, I guess? I'm not overly certain how much he can bring, but I do understand his position. I think it will mostly come down to implementation for my reception.


Nominations

Nippon Ichi rep X5
 
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I was impressed by the very positive reception Carmen Sandiego, especially GoodGrief741 GoodGrief741 massive write up. Thanks everyone for the positivity :)

Now Travis
I'd say he has a relatively good chance, do we know if Nintendo is publishing the third game? If things go well he could end up like Bayonetta as an honorary Nintendo character, which helps with the want score. The connection is there and Nintendo wants to drum up attention for NMH3 so maybe?

Chance: 35%
Want: 25%

Nominate someone who isn't the star of their game x5
 

Phoenixio

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Ohh sweet Travis...

Chance 60%
As others have highlighted, his upcoming game and the level of promotion it has gotten makes him a strong contender. The previous games made good use of some of the Wii's feature, the devs are friendly, and he feels more like a DLC character than a main cast. He's also very original as a character, so I think that plays into the diversity card.

Want 100%
I don't have a lot of horses in this race, but Travis is one of them. He's a very original character, design-wise, and he has such amazing moves in his games too. I'm really looking forward to how they'd implement the battery mechanic, and potentially the stances too. The dialogue could be interesting as well. He also has the potential to have twin katanas, so that would make him stand out even more as a sword fighter, although his singular beam katana is more authentic and recognizable. I really hope he makes it in, and with Grasshoper's strong link to Nintendo, I think he could reliably be chosen as a third party character.
 

Hydreigonfan01

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I think they're referencing the fact that Travis literally slices his foes to pieces. Multiple times, in fact.
That wouldn't be a problem, you can do No More Heroes without the blood and gore. Bayonetta is honestly worse because No More Heroes is very cartoony with it to the point where the amount of blood that comes out of a characters body is more absurd than anything. The worst in his game is a taunt where he represents masturbating, but they can remove that.
 
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Travis? hmmm...

60%
Recent DLC releases show that Nintendo is pushing newer switch titles -- even ones that aren't huge, like ARMS.

I can see his 'niche' getting stolen by Dante, though -- who I think is more likely overall.
 
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Hydreigonfan01

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Travis? hmmm...

60%
Recent DLC releases show that Nintendo is pushing newer switch titles -- even ones that aren't huge, like ARMS.

I can see his 'niche' getting stolen by Dante, though -- who I think is more likely overall.
You're gonna have to write more than that for your points to count towards the average. A couple more sentences at least.
 
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Ninjaed

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Day over.

Rate Travis Touchdown from the No More Heroes series.

Predict the idea of Quote from Cave Story becoming a Mii Costume.

Megadoomer Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the hired-assassin otaku mood:

I was listening to your songs and that made me realise the cruel lack of Philistine! Come on, that was Margaret's death wish that you memorised her song. It's also a prime example of NMH's humour leaking even into its songs with Philistine being half Margaret's motivation, half dissing Travis.

"Thigh-high socks are my absolute territory.
Go on and drool, the otaku cannot resist."


Original japanese version:
Bonus: prepare for trouble, Destroyman makes it double! With their crotch lasers. I find myself listening to that song sometimes as a background music. More one to bob your head at than one to fully listen to.
PS: killing the likes of Margaret makes me feel like a douchebag, seriously. I guess she joined her sister Alice in the afterlife at least, though in my headcanon both live...
 
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Calamitas

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His name is Touchdown, and yet he owns no superb owl, but rather a cat

Chance: 25%
Okay, let's get over this. A series of currently three games, soon(-ish) to be four, all of which were either Nintendo exclusive, or at least started out on Nintendo consoles before receiving ports (not exactly sure on what the situation with Travis Strikes Again is). However, there was a huge gap between NMH2 and Travis Strikes Again, which I feel might in a way hurt his public perception and chances. And just because he has a new game coming up, doesn't mean that he's any more or less likely. For a bottom line, I'll admit that I don't really have much in the way of a concrete argument for my comparatively low rating, so it's really more of a gut feeling.

Want: 15%
I played the first game years ago (and still own it), but it never really managed to pull me in that much, not even with its boss fights. I'm very low-key interested in giving the series another shot one day, but not any time soon, and also not with NMH3. As for Travis. . . eh? He doesn't seem that interesting as a potential Smash character to me.

Predicting a Quote costume to get around 65%.

Nominating Concept: A New Zelda Character x5.
 

Sari

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Day over.

Rate the idea of Quote from Cave Story becoming a Mii Costume.

Predict Paper Mario from the Paper Mario series.

Megadoomer Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the Cave Story mood:

 
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Mii Costume Quote

Chance 45 - Starting with the Sans one these are seemingly getting released every other character. I think one from Hollow Knight is basically a lock so that leaves 2 more spots left. I could see Quote getting one for sure due to his status in the indies. One thing that does bother me with him is that so far it's only been more recent indie characters getting the costumes but we've only had 2 so I guess we might have to wait until another comes out to see if that's a pattern or not.

Want 50 - Sure, why not. Dont really know Cave Story that well but Im not sure I can really get too bothered by someone getting a Mii Costume since I can just ignore it if I want to. Dont care either way on this

Predictions
Paper Mario - 15%

Noms
Falinks x5
 
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Gee, Mii gunner how come mom let you have three deluxe costumes?
Chance: 33%
These special costumes don't have to happen every pack and there's nothing saying they're exclusively reserved for indies. More popular and relevant characters might take up those spots too. Tho if legacy is a factor it could happen.


Want: 65%
I've never played Cave Story but eh, why not? It would be good for his fans I guess. Plus, he wouldn't be competition as a potential fighter to my preferred indie, metroidvania character anymore.


Paper Mario: 18.66%
Alucard x5
 

3DSNinja

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Mr. Indie Game Himself.
chance:20%: He is the progenitor of all indie games and a huge character, Nd we have been getting a lot of deluxe costumes. However, the same logic IMO makes him more likely as a character.
Want:0%: Hell no. I was ok with it for Sans because he works as a mii gunner, and for cuphead I was fine with it because I didn't play much of that game. But I don't think it would be right for Quote to be a mini costume when he could be a super unique and interesting character.
Nominations: Minato Arisato x5
 

Sari

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<----- as a Mii Costume

Chance: 30%
I feel like most of the popular indies are going to get Mii Costumes as seen with Sans and Cuphead. Despite Nicalis being Nicalis, I can see Sakurai/Nintendo adding a Quote Mii Costume given both Nicalis' history with Nintendo as well as Cave Story's influence on the indie genre as a whole.

Want: 60%
If Quote can't make it in as a fighter then I'd be fine with him being a Mii Costume as long as he gets a Sans/Cuphead type of mask. That said though, Quote is still my most wanted character so I'd much prefer that he gets in as a unique fighter.

Paper Mario chance prediction: 12.00%

Nominations:
Axel Stone x5
 
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Quote Mii Costume

Chance: 30% - Going by the current pattern, these deluxe Mii costumes are for indies that have been supportive of the Switch, and while Cave Story's Nintendo history has been much MUCH longer (13 years and counting), it still has the same recency with Cave Story+'s Switch port. Furthermore, plenty of Castlevania and Bomberman content got into the game despite Konami being Konami, so Sakurai is definitely willing to look past a negative owner to include a deserving character. Considering Cave Story's status as essentially the father of indies, Sakurai (being the game expert he is) will more than likely throw in a homage to Quote in some form.

Want: 65% - If Quote can't make it in as a fighter, this would be the next best thing, with said costume hopefully being in the deluxe style. While it'd be sad to lose his unique weapons, this would be the next best thing.


Nominations:
Civilization series stage with music (standalone) x5


Predictions:
Paper Mario - 14.97%
 

Ninjaed

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After listening to so much Philistine, I now want a variant in Smash: "Another swordsman? Oh please!"
Poppi QT: "It is new day!"
Why thank you for the heads up. On with it then!

Quote as a Mii costume

Chance: 25%
Sari saying "Nicalis being Nicalis" made me lower my chance score a bit, but I still find it quite likely. I've seen Quote as a few avatars on the net (e.g. Youtube) and I've heard of Cave Story and read about its impact. With all that, I would not be surprised at all to see Quote getting a Mii costume. What hurts his case is that Nintendo currently appears to care more about Hollow Knight and suchlike, so those might take precedence. Also let's not forget about 3rd party Mii costumes.

Want: 30%
I wouldn't want it for me (I hardly ever use Mii costumes anyway) but for others. That simple nod would make quite a few fans rejoice. Sure quote wouldn't be playable, but something is always better than nothing. Even more so if that something is a costume of the same quality as Sans and Cuphead.

Predictions: Paper Mario - 6%

Nominations: Junko & Monokuma x5

PS: me liking those Axel Stone noms, Sari!
 
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"Mii Costume"

Chance: abstain
I mean, I dunno, I think Quote is one of, if not the most likely indie characters to get in as a fighter. Does that make him more likely or less likely to be a Mii Costume? For what it's worth, Sans and Cuphead were "no chance in hell" additions for me. Same with Hollow Knight. I can't say if a character's pros as a fighter are also pros to take a lesser role.

Want: 0%
I want Quote to be playable so this would be a bummer. I'd take it if it came with music but it would be an unwelcome addition.

Noms: Chun-Li x5
Paper Mario prediction: 18%
 
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
7,460
Segata Sanshiro x105
Gnar (League of Legends) x105
Chun-Li x100
Bubsy x90
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x90
Hornet (Hollow Knight) x85
Decidueye x80

100 - 51

Falinks x79
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x77
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Alucard (Castlevania) x70
Meowth x69
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Concept: New Zelda character x65
Concept: Darksiders rep x60
Sirfetch'd x60
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x55

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Earthworm Jim x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Concept: A character who isn't the star of their own game x45
Concept: Contra rep x45
Minato Arisato x45
[Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x40
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
Terra Branford x35
Concept: DLC music packs x35
Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone) x35
Boss: Ender Dragon x33
[Rerate] Kratos x30
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x30
Concept: Level-5 rep x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25
Junko & Monokuma x25

Under 25

Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x21
Ahri (League of Legends) x20
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x16
Concept: Returning stages x16
Zeraora x15
Axel Stone x15
Concept: Nippon Ichi rep x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
Guardian (Destiny) x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gooigi x10
[Rerate] Steve x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
Black Shadow x8
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Magolor x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
[Rerate] Toxtricity x5
3 Mage Sisters x2

Gnar crosses 100 noms and ties with Segata Sanshiro for the top spot. Hornet jumps over Decidueye and ends the day in sixth place.

Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon now has over 50 noms.

Junko & Monokuma escape the under 25 club.

Joining the list today is a rerate of Toxtricity, with 5 noms.
 

amageish

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 21, 2018
Messages
1,416
Quote as a Mii Costume.

Chance: Abstain. Quote is undeniably one of the most important indie characters in terms of legacy and impact on the industry. If they are doing 6 "Deluxe Mii Costumes" (i.e., ones with music and a fancier reveal) and they're all indie characters, then I would feel like his odds are close to 100%, as I can't imagine them picking 6 iconic indies and not including Quote in the list....

...but I'm not entirely certain if we will be getting 6 more indie deluxe Mii Costumes. Yes, that is the pattern thus far, but a pattern with only 2 reference points thus far is... not much of a pattern. It's possible that they'll expand the Deluxe Mii Costume treatment to non-indie characters. Cuphead and Sans were both indies, but they're also super contemporary and trendy characters with a lot of fan demand. If the Deluxe Mii Costumes turn into "Let's represent IPs nobody expected to get into Smash as Mii Costumes" and they aren't especially focused on indies, then suddenly Quote's odds kind of tank... Alternatively, they could go the other way and say "Hey, Sans and Cuphead sold super well, so let's make even more Deluxe Mii Costumes" and we'll get, say, 12 more Deluxe Costumes. Or, heck, maybe they're thinking "Development is being pushed back and we lack time right now, so let's put Mii Costumes to the side and we'll come back for them later" and we'll get less then 6 Deluxe Mii Costumes. There are a lot of different ways this could play out and I'm not confident enough to put a number to it at this moment...

Want: Also Abstain. I love Cave Story and Quote is great, but Nicalis' company scandals are bad, even by video game industry standards. I don't think we'll ever know how Cave Story creator Pixel feels about them, but given how Kero Blaster wasn't published by them and he's only ever done retweets acknowledging Nicalis' continued use of the Cave Story IP... I am left with questions. So, I'd love to see Quote in Smash in any form, but I'll feel guilty about it haha...

Nominations: Just for the sake of cross-promotion of my very dead thread, I'll nominate Jill Stingray as a Mii Costume x 5.

Paper Mario Prediction: 28.67%
 
Joined
Sep 30, 2018
Messages
1,400
Abstain. I don't know anything about Cave Story. Plus, we may want to wait and see how far these premium costumes go, if that makes any sense.

Nominations: [Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5
 

BowserKing

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Feb 16, 2019
Messages
484
Location
winnipeg
Mii costume for Quote

Chance: 15%. Given that we have Mii costumes for Sans and Cuphead, a Mii Costume for Quote would not be far fetched. Of course there is other potential Mii costumes, but Quote could have a chance of being a playable fighter.

Want: 50%. While Quote would be a fun fighter, having him as a Mii Costume would be surprising. Of course the moves you can give him are custom, but I think it could work out. I prefer it is Quote is a playable fighter however.

Prediction: Paper Mario (10%)

Noms: 2 for Falinks and 3 for Returning Stages
 
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Messages
623
Mii Costume for Quote

Chance: 47%

I'm really torn on this. I really do believe that Quote will get included in this game in some way due to Cave Story's importance to indie games. With Sans and Cuphead getting premium Mii costumes, Quote is likely to get one too. However, seeing as Quote is requested and Cave Story probably being one of, if not, the most important indie game, Quote could be our playable indie rep. And of course there is always the possibility of Cave Story just getting a spirit event, though this is probably the least likely scenario. It's true that Sans and Cuphead come from newer indie games, but like others said, we should wait to see if that is actually a pattern. This is a case of: It's happening or it's not happening. As for the drama surrounding Nicalis over the years, look at Dragon Quest's composer who has his music in this game.

Want: 55%

Here's the thing: I've never been a big supporter of Quote. I think he would be a cool character to have and I've been wanting an indie in the game for a long time. But Cave Story has never interested me that much. Thus, in this case, I'm fine with him having a Mii costume. I would give this a 50% but honestly if Quote was a Mii costume, that would give other characters I want a better chance.

Prediction: Paper Mario - 15.67% (I could see him getting a variety of scores. I'm not sure where he falls in the grand scheme of speculation)

Noms: Contra rep x5
 

Ridrool64

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Messages
1,120
Location
New Jersey
The Mii Costume edition of an old joke

Chance: 65%. Quote is a decently popular request from an indie title that many love. It's a somewhat influential indie among indies to boot. Even ignoring the seeming aversion to indies making the full jump, Quote fits the Mii Gunner pretty well, and would be a pretty easy way to include him while still appeasing the fans. Really, the only problem is if Nicalis manages to blow it by blowing off Nintendo, and that's basically corporate suicide. No way that happens. And their controversies probably don't matter if we have Dragon Quest music in the game.

Want: 50%. Still not into Cave Story so I really don't care. But a Mii Costume doesn't eat one of the precious 6 slots left, so I'll say it's fine if Quote ends up with one. Can't exactly pull the "Nicalis is the worst" card on him, though, cause I want (well, support) a character from a company that's probably way worse, and like Crash Quote wasn't always owned by Nicalis so it'd be even more bs.

DLC Music x 5. Ah, Paper Mario. Where will he end up? If the new Paper Mario game rumors hold water, he could be a lot likelier than we think, otherwise he's probably fighting a losing battle against Waluigi. Or Geno. Or King Boo. So, 12.59%.
 

Perkilator

Smash Champion
Joined
Apr 8, 2018
Messages
2,116
Location
San Clemente, California
“Mii Costume” in Dr. Evil air quotes
Chance: 50%

It’s a popular indie series, so I could see it getting a costume at the least. Bonus points if it gets the Sans and Cuphead treatment.

Want: 20%
I’m mixed. On one hand, a Mii Costume with the CupSans treatment would be a decent exposure for those who don’t know about Cave Story. On the other hand, if I remember correctly, didn’t Nicalis steal the Cave Story IP from its original creators? Not sure I’d wanna support that company.

Paper Mario: 30%

Noms: Sirfetch’d x5
 
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
7,460
Octopath Traveler rep
3.47% Chance - 51.00% Want
Winner of predictions was DrifloonEmpire DrifloonEmpire with an almost exact 3.48%! This nabs you ten extra noms.

Carmen Sandiego
4.43% Chance - 69.73% Want
Winner of predictions was warpenguin55 warpenguin55 with a precise 4.00%
This isn't a new record, but I still feel like I should mention that Carmen's the third most wanted third party character (after Crash and Phoenix Wright) and fifth most wanted character overall (Dee and Dixie as well) - of the entire DLC period of RTC. I did not expect that. At all.

Travis Touchdown
45.28% Chance - 62.86% Want
Last time we rated him he got 12.88% chance and 43.00%. This was in the old, innocent pre-Joker days, in which a third-party character had to be a massive, longstanding icon (or Bayonetta); when Travis was just a dude from a dead franchise that had put out a mediocre Switch-exclusive spin-off; and when people were expecting first-party promotional picks, not third party ones. In all seriousness, No More Heroes III's amazing TGA reveal and its status as one of the biggest Switch titles of the year has turned a lot of heads towards Travis. (One thing of note is that Travis' chance score was sitting comfortably in the high 50s before a couple of very low ratings at the end did a number on his numbers. So for most of you Travis is more likely than not, but for some of you he isn't likely at all.)
Winner of predictions was Ridrool64 Ridrool64 with 43.85%

Artix Artix 15
Awakining Awakining 5
DanganZilla5 DanganZilla5 15
DaUsername DaUsername 57
Delzethin Delzethin 5
DrifloonEmpire DrifloonEmpire 10
GoodGrief741 GoodGrief741 43
Icedragonadam Icedragonadam 10
Mr. Nintendo Mr. Nintendo 110
Nemuresu Nemuresu 10
Perkilator Perkilator 5
Ridrool64 Ridrool64 5
Sari Sari 5
Smashing Ramen Smashing Ramen 5
Troykv Troykv 15
warpenguin55 warpenguin55 20
Wunderwaft Wunderwaft 10

you have extra noms enjoy
 
Joined
Feb 8, 2014
Messages
4,618
Location
Australia
Carmen Sandiego
4.43% Chance - 69.73% Want
Winner of predictions was warpenguin55 warpenguin55 warpenguin55 warpenguin55 with a precise 4.00%
This isn't a new record, but I still feel like I should mention that Carmen's the third most wanted third party character (after Crash and Phoenix Wright) and fifth most wanted character overall (Dee and Dixie as well) - of the entire DLC period of RTC. I did not expect that. At all.
Good lord, top 5? That's honestly insane for someone like Carmen.

What is the current top ten?

Edit: just thought, this would also have to be the largest gap between Chance and want as well wouldn't it?
 
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Ridrool64

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Messages
1,120
Location
New Jersey
Chance Key: Green = Frontrunner (50+%), Blue = Solid Shot (35+%), White is Possible (20+%), Orange is Feasible (15+%), Orange Red is considered Unlikely (10+%), Light Red is Very Unlikely (5%) and Deep Red is below that, Pipe Dream. The lower tiers are once again getting a split.

By chance:

  1. (KOEI-TECMO, Ninja Gaiden) Ryu Hayabusa: 59.48% Chance - Likeliest character
  2. (Activision-Blizzard, self titled) Crash Bandicoot: 59.26% Chance - Likeliest Western character
  3. (BANDAI-NAMCO, Tales of) Lloyd Irving: 50.29% Chance - Likeliest character from a 3rd party company with a fighter
  4. (Capcom, Devil May Cry) Dante: 49.38% Chance
  5. (Grasshopper Manufacture, No More Heroes) Travis Touchdown: 45.28% Chance
  6. (Capcom, Ace Attorney) Phoenix Wright: 43.94% Chance
  7. (Square-Enix, Mario) Geno: 42.50% Chance
  8. (Square-Enix & Disney, Kingdom Hearts) Sora: 40.58% Chance
  9. (SEGA, Puyo Puyo) Arle Nadja: 39.29% Chance
  10. (SEGA, Yakuza) Kazuma Kiryu: 38.46% Chance
  11. Heihachi Mishima: 37.58% Chance
  12. 2B: 35.41% Chance
  13. Sol Badguy: 31.00% Chance
  14. Lara Croft: 29.50% Chance
  15. Cinderace: 26.63% Chance - Likeliest first party
  16. Reimu Hakurei: 24.98% Chance - Likeliest indie character
  17. Bandana Dee: 21.70% Chance
  18. Isaac: 20.45% Chance - Likeliest first party from a non-fighter repped series
  19. Waluigi: 19.81% Chance
  20. Dovahkiin: 19.69% Chance
  21. Nightmare: 18.74% Chance
  22. Master Chief: 18.27% Chance
  23. Amaterasu: 18.17% Chance
  24. Dixie Kong: 18.08% Chance
  25. Rex: 17.52% Chance
  26. Tracer: 17.37% Chance
  27. Rillaboom: 16.11% Chance
  28. Ragna the Bloodedge: 14.25% Chance
  29. Inteleon: 12.41% Chance
  30. Toxtricity: 12.34% Chance
  31. Rayman: 11.53% Chance
  32. Urshifu: 11.43% Chance
  33. Shantae: 10.89% Chance
  34. Monster Hunter: 10.75% Chance
  35. Spyro the Dragon: 9.58% Chance
  36. KOS-MOS: 8.87% Chance
  37. Echo Fighters as DLC: 7.53% Chance - "Most likely" non-Fighter concept
  38. Elma: 6.48% Chance
  39. Neku Sakuraba: 6.46% Chance
  40. Standalone Stage DLC: 5.74% Chance - "Least likely" non-Fighter concept
  41. Skull Kid: 5.46% Chance
  42. The Knight: 4.62% Chance
  43. Carmen Sandiego: 4.43% Chance - Most notable combination of least likely and most wanted, Pipe Dream Award
  44. Midna: 4.33% Chance
  45. Freddy Fazbear: 4.31% Chance
  46. Bomberman: 4.16% Chance
  47. Octopath Traveler rep: 3.47% Chance - Least likely third party from a company with a Fighter
  48. Thrall: 3.07% Chance
  49. Crypto: 2.67% Chance
  50. Obstagoon: 2.18% Chance
  51. Vault Boy: 1.82% Chance
  52. Melmetal: 1.71% Chance - Least likely character from a repped series, least likely first/second party, least likely Japanese character
  53. The Blob: 1.14% Chance
  54. Hat Kid: 0.85% Chance - Least likely character

Want key: Pink = Community Stars (#FF69B4) [65+%], Brown = Fan Favorites [#8B4513] (60+%), Yellow = Popular (40+%), Purple is Average (25+%), Black is Unpopular (below 25%).

By want:

  1. (Activision, self-titled) Crash Bandicoot: 75.78% Want - Most wanted character
  2. Echo Fighters as DLC: 75.40% Want - Most wanted non-Fighter concept
  3. (Nintendo, Kirby) Bandana Dee: 74.41% Want - Most wanted first party, most wanted Japanese character, most wanted from a repped series
  4. (Capcom, Ace Attorney) Phoenix Wright: 70.91% Want - Most wanted third party from a company with a fighter
  5. (Nintendo, Donkey Kong) Dixie Kong: 70.52% Want
  6. Standalone Stage DLC: 70.88% Want - "Least wanted" non-Fighter concept
  7. Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, Where in the World is --->) Carmen Sandiego: 69.73% Want
  8. (Square-Enix, Tomb Raider) Lara Croft: 69.06% Want
  9. (Nintendo, Golden Sun) Isaac: 67.22% Want - Most wanted new first party
  10. (SEGA, Yakuza) Kazuma Kiryu: 66.17% Want
  11. (KOEI-TECMO, Ninja Gaiden) Ryu Hayabusa: 64.32% Want
  12. Dante: 64.23% Want
  13. 2B: 64.09% Want
  14. Geno: 62.93% Want
  15. Travis Touchdown: 62.86% Want
  16. Skull Kid: 61.30% Want
  17. Master Chief: 60.94% Want
  18. Waluigi: 60.75% Want
  19. Arle Nadja: 60.50% Want
  20. Reimu Hakurei: 60.05% Want
  21. Amaterasu: 60.00% Want
  22. Nightmare: 57.27% Want
  23. Midna: 57.17% Want
  24. Bomberman: 55.00% Want
  25. Sora: 54.44% Want
  26. Shantae: 54.28% Want
  27. Neku Sakuraba: 53.89% Want
  28. Heihachi: 53.60% Want
  29. Rayman: 52.35% Want
  30. Spyro the Dragon: 52.04% Want
  31. Elma & Sol Badguy: 51.18% Want (tied)
  32. Octopath Traveler rep: 51.00% Want (epic, I forgot this)
  33. Rex: 50.95% Want
  34. The Knight: 50.12% Want
  35. Lloyd Irving: 47.85% Want - Worse want total than chance total, the "dread it, run from it, it still arrives" award
  36. Dovahkiin: 47.40% Want
  37. Toxtricity: 41.62% Want
  38. Monster Hunter: 37.33% Want
  39. Ragna the Bloodedge: 37.19% Want
  40. KOS-MOS: 35.24% Want
  41. The Blob: 28.88% Want
  42. Cinderace: 27.71% Want
  43. Crypto: 27.63% Want
  44. Rillaboom: 27.47% Want
  45. Inteleon: 27.00% Want
  46. Thrall: 26.50% Want
  47. Hat Kid: 23.69% Want
  48. Tracer: 22.73% Want
  49. Melmetal: 21.10% Want
  50. Vault Boy: 20.40% Want
  51. Obstagoon: 18.27% Want
  52. Freddy Fazbear: 17.48% Want
  53. Urshifu: 16.46% Want

The Deceased: Honorable mentions to Bendy and Warframe reps, who were never in consideration but got whacked during Volume 2 speculation. And now Animal Crossing: New Horizons characters join them.
  1. Doom Slayer (2.86% Chance, 44.15% Want) | Interview
  2. Ring Fit Trainer (90 Nominations) | Spirit Event
  3. Shovel Knight (5.03% Chance, 48.71% Want) | Interview
  4. Filler, because something tells me this Tuesday or the next, I'll have to put a popular pick here.
Takeaways: Top 3 third parties, top 5 Fighters, top 7 overall? Carmen Sandiego takes a new spot as the pipe dream pick. The character people never knew they wanted until the idea was brought up. Good for her! Now if only she could steal some chance from those frontrunners... And I kinda called it on Travis. I always wondered why he wasn't on the fixed schedule but hey, good to see he did very well. Octopath Traveler was a game I thought a lot of people would want in Smash more, but then again it is rather young so people aren't nostalgic for it. Then again, 2B isn't much older and she's much more popular. Is it the lack of a standout face of the band? More people do want it than not, but with the praise I'd heard for it I expected demand to be a lot higher.

The "want/chance" pass concepts, I'm bringing them back, except now there's a caveat. Since ARMS rep is at 100% chance, literally Nintendo themselves said it, the ARMS rep removes a slot from all passes. Thus, the Chance Pass is (ARMS rep, Ryu Hayabusa, Crash Bandicoot, Lloyd Irving, and two characters in the blue tier), and the want pass is (ARMS rep, Crash Bandicoot, Bandana Dee, Phoenix Wright, Dixie Kong, and Carmen Sandiego). Conversely the "wtf" pass, ignoring repeat series but not repeat companies/genres, would be ARMS rep, Hat Kid, de Blob, Melmetal, Vault Boy, and Crypto. The nightmare scenario pass, ignoring the ARMS rep, is Urshifu, Freddy Fazbear, Vault Boy, Tracer and Hat Kid. Fill in the blanks with your own takes for now, though once we start doing the ARMS ratings (if we do them) I expect I'll have an answer.
 
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