Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 451: Helix, Max Brass, Misango, multiple ARMS characters as alts (like Hero or Bowser Jr.)

Drason

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Junko & Monokuma

Chance: 25%
The entire Danganronpa series has gone through a massive surge of popularity so I can definitely see how these characters can make it in. Not to mention Junko and Monokuma are pretty much synonymous with the Danganronpa brand. The only problem is Junko's moveset without really getting into spoilers
Want: 80%
I love this series and I want to see it get proper representation. The potential for their moveset could make them either the next Rosalina or a completely different beast with all the traps.
Nom: Nightmare(SoulCalibur)
 

BernkastelWitch

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Junko/Monokuma

Chance: 30% Solo for Monokuma

15% Duo

Spike Chunsoft has been a life long business partner with Nintendo and helped collab and made a few games for Nintendo, including the ever popular Pokemon Mystery Dungeon. Monokuma is Spike's mascot and even people who never touched a Danganronpa game can know him as "That monochromatic bear from that one popular Visual novel series" which says a lot there.

I do feel like if we get a DR rep, it'd be a solo character and Monokuma would be the only one. I just can't imagine how Junko would contribute other than being a Pokemon Trainer figure in the background. Plus spoilers.

There's a lot of competition for 3rd parties and I imagine a strong business relation wouldn't be enough but Monokuma would be quirky enough to fit in Smash.

Want: 85%

He isn't in a top five most wanted for me but a top ten. I would adore seeing Danganronpa get repped in Smash. My only worry is that the Danganronpa fanbase isn't the healthiest and I worry what that'd do to Smash. But I would enjoy Monokuma in Smash. Even with Junko it'd be nice.


Also I edited this to specify the percentages on solo and duo since I realized this got a bit confusing at first.
 
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Abstaining because I don't really have time to research this one and since I thought Junko was also a bear yesterday it's probably best to not mess with it.

Predictions:
No 3rd parties - 10%

Noms
Guardian x5
 
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Neosonic97

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Ultimate Despair

Chance: oof
It would actually have a chance if it were Monokuma alone. I simply don't see Junko appearing at all, for a simple reason- there's not really much she could add, and it really wouldn't make sense for Junko and Monokuma to be on the battlefield at the same time, considering that


Junko is the one responsible for controlling Monokuma from behind the scenes anyway- at least in the first two games, so they're basically the same person,

So it would make more sense for Monokuma to go it alone. Depicting them as a tag-team simply would not be accurate to Danganronpa, and we all know how Sakurai likes to be accurate to the characters he adds to smash.

Want: Abstain. I'm not entirely sure on how I feel about Monokuma, and that's not taking into account the existence of one Phoenix Wright who muddles things even more. If Monokuma alone has me unsure on my feelings, then a tag-team between both the bear and the one controlling it is... not that much more jumbled actually. Monokuma, if he gets in, should go it alone.

Noms: Terrarian x5
 
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So, uh, how are you going to calculate this day, given the divergent interpretations?
On a case by case basis, but for the most part people seem to be discussing them as a tag team (even if their final score doesn't exactly represent that). But if I see a rating that shows a blatant disregard for what's actually being rated, then that won't be counted.

On that note, I went back and read every post so far. I think that DrifloonEmpire DrifloonEmpire BernkastelWitch BernkastelWitch and Neosonic97 Neosonic97 might have had some confusion about today's topic, so I'm tagging them just in case.
 
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Monokuma... AND SPOILERS!

Chance: 20%
Want: 75%

Monokuma is one of my most wanted third party characters, and I believe that's for a good reason. Danganronpa is a popular series with a large fanbase, an interesting story and a few crossovers, too. For these reasons, it's not out of the question to see a representative from Danganronpa joining the battle. My want score would be higher if it weren't for a preference towards Ace Attorney due to seniority, larger influence (despite a smaller fanbase) and stronger ties to Nintendo. Speaking of competition, even if we were to get a Danganronpa rep, we may not even get Monokuma, as Sakurai may favor a protagonist like Makoto Naegi or Hajime Hinata, similarly to how Slime was robbed by passed over in favor of Hero. With that said, Monokuma is a memorable character from a big franchise who would also be our first third party villain to join the ranks of gaming's greats.

And then you add Junko to the mix, which adds a whole other layer of hopelessness onto this despair. Oh boy. Junko, much like Monokuma, is a villain filled with charisma, but is as sick and twisted as Ridley. From Danganronpa 2 onward, she's a pivotal character to the plot and lore of Danganronpa, so her inclusion Smash wouldn't bring down Monokuma in the slightest.

However, there is her role in DR1 as the main antagonist and mastermind. That is a huge factor that plays against the Ultimate Despair. As all of Danganronpa 1's plot builds up to Junko's reveal as the mastermind behind the Killing Game. While that might not seem like much, since we have similar occurrences such as Lucina from Fire Emblem Awakening. The difference lies in the genres of the games. While you can still enjoy Fire Emblem Awakening while knowing Lucina's secrets, because it's an RPG about trying to make it through a war while keeping as many allies as possible alive. As a visual novel, Danganronpa is a game about nothing but storyline. Adding Junko into one of the biggest fighting game franchises of all time would ruin the most important plot twist of the entire Danganronpa series, and I'm not sure Sakurai would want to do it or if I would want to see that happen. I'm not against Junko being in Smash, but I think it would be better for would-be new fans of Danganronpa and the representation of Monokuma (since Junko always was a behind-the-scenes-type villain) for Junko to not be there. However, Junko is the most important character in the Danganronpa series, is a huge fan favorite, and was even in the Guinness World Records as the most cosplayed character as of 2017. So basically, there is a REALLY important factor that should keep Junko out of Smash, but there's some despair-craving side of me that wants her to be in anyway.
 

Beth Uriel

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Just a heads-up, you're not supposed to predict your own score, but rather what you think the overall score will be. I've seen a lot of people doing this so I thought I should clarify.
Ohhhh. Yeah, that's a bit confusing. Sorry about that.

Let me change it up a bit.
 
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Sid-cada

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Junko and Monokuma

Chance - 0.5% - I can see one appearing in a cameo or special of the other, but to get equal billing? I think that just one is enough to properly represent the series, no need to get that complex. Besides, protagonists typically go first, as their better equipped to represent the main mechanics of the series, and neither of them are likely to substitute as well as one of them.

Want - 40% - Eh, don't dislike them, but there are characters I would much rather have first. Phoenix in particular would be my first choice for visual novels, anyway.


Nominations

Lip X5
 
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On a case by case basis, but for the most part people seem to be discussing them as a tag team (even if their final score doesn't exactly represent that). But if I see a rating that shows a blatant disregard for what's actually being rated, then that won't be counted.

On that note, I went back and read every post so far. I think that DrifloonEmpire DrifloonEmpire BernkastelWitch BernkastelWitch and Neosonic97 Neosonic97 might have had some confusion about today's topic, so I'm tagging them just in case.
Edited my rating! :)
 

zferolie

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Haven't tagged here in a bit, but want to weigh in on this.

Junko and Monokuma

Chance: 25%

Danganronpa is a pretty big game for spike chunsoft. Its a fun game and series, has an anime, and a few spin offs. Spike Shunsoft are good buddies with Nintendo it seems. Danganronpa is also celebrating its 10th anniversary this year, and they are re-releasing all the games on different platforms. Things seem to be going well for the series.

However, the series hasn't been on a nintendo system. Not a huge hit, but a hit. Though Junko and Monokuma would be a good choice, representing both a horror game and a Visual Novel game, and a detective game. Their moveset could be pretty unique, involve Junko doing normal attacks with Monokuma maybe being like a Puppet character like Rosalina and luma doing death traps and stuff. Junko and Monokuma aren't the main characters, they are much more iconic and better movesets.

Now, I see a lot of people mentioning Junko cannot happen as she is such a big spoiler. However, smash has done other spoilers, END GAME spoilers, as soon as the dlc as well. Banjo and Kazooie in their final smash is a end game spoiler with the Jinjonator, and the trailer having K Rool getting crushed by a rock, the same ending to Banjo and Kazooie. So I think Sakurai may feel that Spoilers are fine given a certain amoiunt of time has passed. Since the game is 10 years old, he may feel the spoiler limitations has passed for a 10 year old game.

Want: 75%

I love the series, so fun. I think also playing as the villain would be very fun. I think she would be fun, and I really would want to see what else the game brings.

Nom: CYnthia from Pokemon x5
 
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Neosonic97

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I'm aware of the topic. I just don't think it'd make sense for Junko to tag in- her entire gimmick in the first two Danganronpa games (the ones she ACTUALLY starred in) is that she was the one controlling Monokuma from behind the scenes. It simply wouldn't make sense for her to take to the battlefield- what would she even add to Monokuma by being present instead of controlling the robotic bear from behind the scenes, as usual? But nonetheless, the rating's changed anyway- it's actually LOWER than it would be for Monokuma alone.
 
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zferolie

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I'm aware of the topic. I just don't think it'd make sense for Junko to tag in- her entire gimmick in the first two Danganronpa games (the ones she ACTUALLY starred in) is that she was the one controlling Monokuma from behind the scenes. It simply wouldn't make sense for her to take to the battlefield- what would she even add to Monokuma by being present instead of controlling the robotic bear from behind the scenes, as usual?
Well in the games we don't see Junko doing much herself, but if we take the anime adaption his is canon, we see Jumko doing a lot more herself. I think if anything in the game its possible Junko is a Puppet like character, but more so then her. I think it could be much more like puppet characters in an Ark System game. Monokuma can do most of the attacks, with Junko herself maybe having more get off moves, like weapons. Also, the Final smash would be one of the execution attacks with her.
 

Neosonic97

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Well in the games we don't see Junko doing much herself, but if we take the anime adaption his is canon, we see Jumko doing a lot more herself. I think if anything in the game its possible Junko is a Puppet like character, but more so then her. I think it could be much more like puppet characters in an Ark System game. Monokuma can do most of the attacks, with Junko herself maybe having more get off moves, like weapons. Also, the Final smash would be one of the execution attacks with her.
Best case scenario for her is that she acts in the background like Pokemon Trainer and that's it. Also what do you mean she does more herself in the anime? Last I checked, in both the anime and the original VN, she doesn't even appear in person until the final Class Trial. Even if it were the case, she would not be seen acting at the same time as Monokuma (which, again, wouldn't make sense, at least in DR1, where she controlled Monokuma through the computer room in Hope's Peak. In DR2 there is kind of an excuse in that she's an AI.).
 
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zferolie

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Best case scenario for her is that she acts in the background like Pokemon Trainer and that's it. Also what do you mean she does more herself in the anime? Last I checked, in both the anime and the original VN, she doesn't even appear in person until the final Class Trial. Even if it were the case, she would not be seen acting at the same time as Monokuma (which, again, wouldn't make sense, at least in DR1, where she controlled Monokuma through the computer room in Hope's Peak. In DR2 there is kind of an excuse in that she's an AI.).
Ah not in the anime remake of DR1, but DR3, which shows also what happens before Dispair took over the world. We see her break people, fight a little, and use some weapons.
 
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Haven't tagged here in a bit, but want to weigh in on this.

Junko and Monokuma

Chance: 25%

Danganronpa is a pretty big game for spike chunsoft. Its a fun game and series, has an anime, and a few spin offs. Spike Shunsoft are good buddies with Nintendo it seems. Danganronpa is also celebrating its 10th anniversary this year, and they are re-releasing all the games on different platforms. Things seem to be going well for the series.

However, the series hasn't been on a nintendo system. Not a huge hit, but a hit. Though Junko and Monokuma would be a good choice, representing both a horror game and a Visual Novel game, and a detective game. Their moveset could be pretty unique, involve Junko doing normal attacks with Monokuma maybe being like a Puppet character like Rosalina and luma doing death traps and stuff. Junko and Monokuma aren't the main characters, they are much more iconic and better movesets.

Now, I see a lot of people mentioning Junko cannot happen as she is such a big spoiler. However, smash has done other spoilers, END GAME spoilers, as soon as the dlc as well. Banjo and Kazooie in their final smash is a end game spoiler with the Jinjonator, and the trailer having K Rool getting crushed by a rock, the same ending to Banjo and Kazooie. So I think Sakurai may feel that Spoilers are fine given a certain amoiunt of time has passed. Since the game is 10 years old, he may feel the spoiler limitations has passed for a 10 year old game.

Want: 75%

I love the series, so fun. I think also playing as the villain would be very fun. I think she would be fun, and I really would want to see what else the game brings.

Nom: CYnthia from Pokemon x5
Forgive me if I come off as rude, but Banjo-Kazooie is a very old game. I'm pretty sure a lot of people know how it ends.
 

Beth Uriel

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Forgive me if I come off as rude, but Banjo-Kazooie is a very old game. I'm pretty sure a lot of people know how it ends.
And Sheik's role alone is a spoiler. So is Sans' costume.

It's pretty clear that spoilers don't always matter. They can, but it's overstated on how much Sakurai tries to avoid them. ...In fact, does he actually bother with hiding stuff at all among the content? ._.
 

Beth Uriel

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Actually, I'd think Sheik being completely separated from Zelda would be less of a spoiler.
But they aren't separated at the time of being added. It was a hard endgame spoiler because Sheik and Zelda transformed into each other. That's how it originated, as a transformation.

By 4, it might be less of a spoiler, if it wasn't obvious who Sheik was by that point.

Overall, yeah, Sakurai ignored that it was a spoiler because it was a cool gameplay idea. He does that. A lot.
 
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Ninjaed

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Ah not in the anime remake of DR1, but DR3, which shows also what happens before Dispair took over the world. We see her break people, fight a little, and use some weapons.
That's actually part of what inspired my suggestion. In the games, she's just puppeteering the entire thing, but she can actually hold her own. Of course she's not an Ultimate in this (and likely got bored midway through) but enough that she could fight. Junko having get off me moves works in most duo concepts of her I'd say. For example, Monokuma could be AI-controlled. The player as Junko could then be able to tell Monokuma to harass someone or come back, or like Rosalina with Luma's stars, force Monokuma to attack. If Monokuma is defeated, Junko will need to summon a new one, which requires her to use those get off me moves.

Besides, Junko is all about despair. Fighting goddesses, lords of evil and the like by herself definitely fits the bill. She'd definitely be crazy enough to attempt it if it meant results defying her expectations - which is the whole reason why she's so gung-ho about despair in the first place (we're talking someone who decided the entire world was a fitting target for her). And last but not least, Junko would never ever take part in something the other party has no chance of overcoming. If she can fight through Monokuma and never be at risk, she wouldn't even bother. I hope that makes enough sense.
 
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zferolie

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Forgive me if I come off as rude, but Banjo-Kazooie is a very old game. I'm pretty sure a lot of people know how it ends.
And Danganrompa is a 10 year old game as well now. Not as old as banjo but still i feel thats past spoiler rules. Plus like Beth Uriel Beth Uriel said, at the time of melees release, zelda OoT was less then 10 years old and sakurai still put in that major spoiler.

Really, it comes down to if spike chunsoft is ok with that sort of spoiler, and i think they would.

That's actually part of what inspired my suggestion. In the games, she's just puppeteering the entire thing, but she can actually hold her own. Of course she's not an Ultimate in this (and likely got bored midway through) but enough that she could fight. Junko having get off me moves works in most duo concepts of her I'd say. For example, Monokuma could be AI-controlled. The player as Junko could then be able to tell Monokuma to harass someone or come back, or like Rosalina with Luma's stars, force Monokuma to attack. If Monokuma is defeated, Junko will need to summon a new one, which requires her to use those get off me moves.

Besides, Junko is all about despair. Fighting goddesses, lords of evil and the like by herself definitely fits the bill. She'd definitely be crazy enough to attempt it if it meant results defying her expectations - which is the whole reason why she's so gung-ho about despair in the first place (we're talking someone who decided the entire world was a fitting target for her). And last but not least, Junko would never ever take part in something the other party has no chance of overcoming. If she can fight through Monokuma and never be at risk, she wouldn't even bother. I hope that makes enough sense.
That makes complete sense and fits in with her character. Remember, she was happy to die ad it fit her goal of ultimate despair, so her fighting gods, plummbers, and dragons, even as a "normal" human would give her a thrill for sure. And she would happily fight with basball bats, exploding monokumas, guns, knifes, and her main Monokuma as well.
 
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[Accidentally posted the first part of my intended post in the Monokuma support thread, where a similar conversation is being held]

I know I said it in my rating, but the direction the discussion is going prompts me to reiterate. I don't think it's fit to compare the spoilers of Danganronpa with those of The Legend of Zelda or Fire Emblem. While LoZ's or Fire Emblem's spoilers would take a bit away from the game's surprises, they can still be enjoyed as Action-Adventure/RPG games, respectively. As a visual novel, Danganronpa is about the story, making Danganronpa spoilers mean more than a spoiler from one of the aforementioned series. Since Super Smash Bros. Ultimate is a huge game, it, combined with the large audience that would spread it through word of mouth and maybe even the in-game tips section, would be essentially outright screaming it to the largest audience the Ultimate Duo of Despair has ever seen. With that in consideration, I wouldn't be so sure Sakruai would want to spoil such a glaring connection.
Again, it's the biggest plot twist in the Danganronpa series: a series that lives on the suspense and unknowing of the player. If I was Kodaka/Sakruai, I'm not sure I'd want it spoiled by the character select of the biggest fighting game of all time.
 
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amageish

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Yeah, I don't feel like Zelda/FE/Banjo comparisons work. DR is a murder mystery where anticipating plot twists and trying to unravel the story is part of the fun and also a major game mechanic. I don't think anyone would reasonably argue that seeing Zelda's transformation or Banjo's final smash makes their entire base games no longer worth playing, but I think you could argue knowing one of the biggest twists in DR makes it not worth playing.

It's more like if, somehow, Banjo being in Smash magically taught Smash players the locations of every jiggy - or at least the endgame jiggies, I guess.

For some people, they already knew the location of the jiggies, so they'd be fine with it. For some people, they find joy in the collection of the jiggies and not the exploration of them, so they don't care if it's been spoiled for them. However, for some people, they want to be able to explore and find the jiggies on their own, therefore knowing their locations makes Banjo inherently not worth playing. For those people, Smash would have effectively spoiled/ruined Banjo - and, for this allegory to work, Banjo would have had to never be on a Nintendo console before, which would make the assumption the player wouldn't care about the locations all the sillier.

Now, I honestly don't know if Spike Chunsoft would care that much, as this is a spoiler spoiled by a decent percentage of artist allies at anime conventions already, but I don't think one can reasonably say it's at the level of previous Smash spoilers just due to the genre of DR and how spoilers affect the game experience differently.
 
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Basically what amageish amageish said. The story is the main draw of Danganronpa, as much, if not more, than the gameplay. It's the main driving force of the game. With a game like Banjo, it's mostly about the gameplay. I don't want to speak for everyone, but personally as someone who didn't beat the first Banjo game yet, having the ending spoiled for me didn't affect my experience at all. I play the game for the gameplay. The story, while a bonus incentive to beat the game, is just a means to progress the gameplay, at least in my opinion. Now if I got the big Danganronpa twist spoiled for me, I would be frustrated and won't be able to think about the game as positively or the same way again since a major aspect of the experience was just taken away from me.
 
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No third parties in this pass
Chance: 0%
There's waaay too many possible popular requests, important franchises, and promotional characters that aren't owned by Nintendo. I really can't think of a situation where there would only be 1st party characters. It doesn't fit with how Smash picks characters at this point.
Want: 0%
Am I the only person who genuinely doesn't care whether a character is owned by a certain company or not in regards to them being in Smash? I'm more interested in just getting characters that look fun to play as. I like plenty of characters both in and out of Nintendo's IPs.

Nominations: Rex [Rerate] x5
 

Perkilator

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This may or may not age well
Chance: 1%

This is entirely possible, believe it or not. But probably not as possible as one may assume just because Vol. 2 has less of a budget.

Want: 1%
I may want Nintendo characters more, but I’m still open to 3rd parties*. Sakurai himself declared this a celebration of gaming (and yes, I know it‘s subjective, but it’s a thought I agree with.

*Well, open to some (Sora, Axel Stone, Crash Bandicoot, etc.) more than others (Master Chief, Doomguy, Tracer, etc.)

Kasumi: 20%

Noms: Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies x5
 
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Hinata

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dae hate non-nintendo characters???

Chance: 1%


I mean, never say never and all that, y'know, but I truly, genuinely cannot see them making a pass with 6 characters work without dipping into the properties of others. There really aren't that many hard-hitting Nintendo characters left for options, unless we get hit with something that proves Spirits/Assist Trophies don't deconfirm characters for this pass. Plus, Nintendo's really been trying their hardest to foster good relationships with other companies, so I'm sure they're always looking for more opportunities to include characters from their partners in this game.

Want: 0%


A lot of the characters on my most-wanted list currently are third-parties, so no thank you.
 

Wunderwaft

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No third parties

Chance: 1%
I don't see this happening. A pass with six characters and you're telling me not a single one is a third party character? Unless Nintendo went full cheap mode, I don't see why we won't get a single third party character. Just because ARMS was the first to be revealed doesn't mean the rest of the pass will be first party characters. I'm giving this a 1% on the off chance that Nintendo went insane, which as much as I hate, is entirely possible.

Want: 0%
I have a lot of third parties I'd love to see included. This first party vs third party argument always left me in a sour mood because I like characters from both sides, I don't want to see one side excluded forever just because of the other side.


Prediction: Kasumi 17.7%
Nomination: Kratos x5
 
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No Third Parties

Chance: N/A - Way too difficult to call, and with the last pass we have no pattern to go off of. Yes, we've had two first party characters in a row, including a first party pass opener, but at the same time there are still rumors of third party characters like Crash and Rayman who mimic the conditions Banjo saw last year. It's really up in the air at this point and even with a more rigid DLC structure, Nintendo has proven to be very unpredictable, and we can only wait and see how this plays out. That said, we do need a heavy hitter to really sell the pass, and some of the more expected first party picks would definitely come off as underwhelming.

Want: 40% - A lot of my most wanted characters are third party and it would be disappointing to see absolutely none of them become part of the pass. It would be a shame if we didn't get at least one more third party character, especially since this may really be the last Smash game.

This could go one of two ways, which is why I gave it a 40% rating. The first would be if the rest were more geared towards fan picks, depending on who they are I'd be overall pleased. I'd be happy with a first party pass if we got characters like Waluigi, Dixie, Bandana Dee, etc, along with someone like Louie with a Pikmin 2-themed pass (Pikmin 2 is by far the least represented of the trilogy, and having Louie would round out Pikmin's much needed representation). While it may be underwhelming in some aspects, it would be a very respectable and positive pass that would make a lot of people happy.

The other is the worst case scenario, which would be a pass focused on marketing and shill picks. While ARMS at least is a new IP, the rest of the pass would generate a lot of negative buzz. Outside of ARMS, every Nintendo-owned DLC newcomer has been a Fire Emblem shill pick, and while ARMS was better received it was still likely requested by Nintendo to act as a marketing boost. A pass that went along the lines of something like:

CP6: ARMS
CP7: Octolings (Semi clone)
CP8: Cinderace/Urshifu
CP9: New Fire Emblem Protagonist
CP10: Breath of the Wild 2 Zelda or Link (Zelda needs a new rep but Zelda fans DO NOT want to see another member of the triforce trio when there are so many unique characters to choose from.)
CP11: Xenoblade 3 Protagonist/Elma with X Remake

Most of the characters on this list (with the exception of Elma and ARMS. Xenoblade does deserve another rep at some point) are characters with little fan demand and would exist exclusively to market another game. This would be the most underwhelming way to finish off the biggest Smash game in history, and would squander a lot of the game's potential heights.


Nominations:
Louie x5

Predictions:
Kasumi - 5.26%
 
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Bipartisan support

Chance: 50%
I'm gonna be the outlier here, huh? It's too early to call, and I don't know if it's going to happen, but it's not that unlikely. I think starting the Pass off with ARMS is telling; last Pass started with Joker, and it consisted mostly of third party characters like Joker. Of course, in the end, the first Pass did end up having one first party character, and likewise I think this Pass could be mostly comprised of first parties, but not completely.

At this point, I expect between 0 and 2 third party characters, tops. Come E3, if we get Fighter 7 and they're first party, those expectations will go down.

Want: 51%
I don't care either way. An all third party Pass could be amazing, or it could be crap; same for a first party one, and a mixed Pass. It all depends on the independent characters in the end, and the ownership does not make a character. That extra 1% is because coming from 4 third party characters and a year of speculation dominated by that, I could use the change of pace, but there doesn't need to be a full first party Pass to have that (I hope).

Noms: Gordon Freeman x5
Kasumi prediction: 12.83%
 

Beth Uriel

Ghastly Grinner
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No Third Party Reps

Chances: 0%. I don't feel they're going to ignore massive characters just for 1st parties. There's a ton of good 1st and 3rd parties right now. Both are good business decisions as is. As I've thought on before, I didn't buy the idea we were guaranteed an all 3rd party pass last time, and a similar thought is here too. 1st party all the way doesn't remotely likely to me. There's not some precedence. Character chances vary, and with multiple icons left? Seems simple to me.

Want: 0%. I don't think ignoring 3rd parties is any better than ignoring 1st parties. They're all great character options, as is. Plus, how can I when my most wanted is a 3rd party. Sure, I don't think he has a chance, but then you have others like Crash who does have a chance. It's looking good for a varied pass, as was the first one.

Predictions: Kasumi 10%

Nominations: Spirit Upgrade x 5(again, I don't know if this needs a rerate or not). If that's not applicable, then Fulgore x 5.
 
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No More Third Parties

Chance: 0%

It's a bad idea for Nintendo to decide to fill up Vol 2 with more 1st Parties than 3rd Parties, let alone filling Vol 2 with only 1st Parties. There's no way in Hell that Nintendo cheaped out on the lineup by adding only 1st Parties and then put in a bunch of 3rd Parties in Smash through other means instead of a fighter after (spirits, mii costumes, etc.). Regardless of any "but it's Nintendo" comments that'll be made, I do not see this happening at all.

Want: 0%

This is easily a 0 from me. All of the characters I want in Smash are 3rd Party, so if Vol 2 happens to be only consisting of 1st parties, I'll be very disappointed with the lineup even if they have characters that are decent. Even if Vol 2 happens to have 3rd Party characters I'm not clamoring for, I'd still take those characters over almost every Nintendo character ever (only almost cause at least Paper Mario is an alright choice compared to someone like Ellie from TLoU).
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Predictions:
Kasumi - 17%

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Noms:
Lu Bu x5
 
Last edited:
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Want: 42%

I'm not against third-parties, and my most wanted character is even a third-party. But I wouldn't get mad if we only got Nintendo characters. I didn't like the first pass only having one of them. If spirits can be upgraded, there are multiple good options left. I would like either a 3-3 or a 4-2 with first- to third-parties, making sure some of the popular choices that got shafted get in.
 

Sari

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"Screw these stupid third party shills like Joker and Terry! Now allow me to write a giant rant on why some random Nintendo character from this one obscure game deserves a spot in Smash more than them!"

Chance: 5%
I don't see this happening. Some of Smash's most hype characters have been third party so I doubt they'll be strictly first party this time around. Granted I think we will get a few more first parties though I don't see them taking up the entire pass.

Want: 0%
Some of my most wanted characters like Quote, Crash, and Kyo are third party so no way I'd want for this to happen. Come to think of it, there aren't that many first party characters that'd get me as hyped as most of my most wanted third parties: only ones off the top of my head are Rex, Andy, and an AT character like Waluigi or Ashley. When I think of characters I really want in Smash, they are usually third party which is why I would still like to see more of them.

Also I don't usually trash on support bases, but I absolutely hate the "anti-third party" crowd that will shun amazing characters just because their games don't have the Nintendo logo on the front cover. Any opportunity to make those people even more upset and get cool characters like Crash is fine with me.

Kasumi chance prediction: 8.62% (competition with Hayabusa + her most iconic outfit is almost the same as Mai's)

Nominations:
Rex [Rerate] x5

Gonna wait until we get some more BotW2 news before I start nomming Zelda again.
 

amageish

Smash Lord
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Concept: No Third Parties in this Pass

Chance: Abstain. It's too early to call, but I would be kind of surprised if there wasn't one. It's worth noting that Sakurai's early column on delays due to covid-19 mentions problems of coordinating with other companies...


...but also this is based on a translation, so it may be vaguer and/or be discussing second parties.

Want: Abstain. There are good first and third party choices. As long as we get fun characters I'm having fun.

Predictions: Kasumi = 12%.

Noms: Jill costume x5
 
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Messages
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No 3rd parties

Chance: 5%

While it's too early to form a pattern, I can't see this route happening. There are a lot of popular, highly requested, and important third party characters not included yet. Crash Bandicoot, Ryu Hayabusa, Phoenix Wright, Dante, Sora, Rayman, heck even characters like Bill Rizer or Axel Stone. While having ARMS be the first fighter is a telling sign, I can't see there not being at least a couple third parties. Nintendo has been working closely with a lot of third party companies. It just makes sense for them to negotiate with companies to strengthen corporal relations and make Smash Ultimate even bigger of a crossover.

Want: 1%

My top 9 most wanted characters are third party characters so heck no. Third parties have been some of the most hype characters. And unless if the pass has a lot of heavy hitters like Rex, Waluigi, Isaac, Bandan Dee and Paper Mario, I can't see myself being too hyped for a first party pass if they decide to go with other first party characters like Dixie Kong or a Metroid character. No offense to those series, I just don't have much attachment to them.

Prediction: Kasumi - 13%

Noms: Frank West x5
 

Ridrool64

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Mario Party 7 is better than 3 anyway.

Chance: Actually, this is a conditional chance rating! I have two answers: one assuming we get a third pass (and that the third parties have been moved to there) and and one assuming that this is the final pass for sure (and Nintendo either never picked them to begin with, or the team decided to cancel something as monumental as a Smash rep for all third party characters). Use the latter one for my ratings, if they count. This also depends on the ARMS rep. If it's Spring Man, then this just got a whole lot likelier. If it's, say, Min-Min, it's likelier but not as much as if Spring Man was in, because deliberately avoiding Assists basically caps the big guy and other popular Assists like Isaac. If it's, say, Max Brass, and thus Spirits and Assists are off the table there's nowhere near enough candidates to totally snub out third parties (without relying on hypotheticals like a potential new Xenoblade/Metroid/Zelda game rep with the little information anybody has).

Assuming that the third parties have been delayed to a third pass: 70%. The development situation right now could be rather tough, especially due to the fact that in-person face-to-face meetings are not going to be happening for quite a while at best, if not a long time. It's entirely possible that they may have decided to cut their losses and retreat to first parties while COVID makes meetings more challenging to plan out. Assuming the next character is Spring Man, or at least one of the Spirit crew, then there's plenty of options to work with, like megaton star Waluigi, cult favorite Isaac, rising icon Bandana Waddle Dee, legacy lady Dixie Kong, even a revisit to a Xenoblade character who missed the boat last time like Rex, Cross or Elma. There are the Pokémon/Fire Emblem boogeymen, too, even, albeit likely one that recaps the series history (in the case of FE... not so much with Pokémon as long as Nintendo's at the helm). Overall, if there's been changes to the original lineup, this is actually pretty likely.

Assuming that this is it and/or the ARMS rep is a non-Spirit: Assuming they weren't picked to begin with, 10%. However, I would outright go 0% if they decided to cancel any third parties at all. I can't say that this is a good bit likely because it contradicts what we know about DLC newcomers up to this point, and the general ratio of DLC doesn't align with that. As there's a good possibility we won't get any Spirit characters (especially in a non-Spirit ARMS rep timeline), none of the first parties left are major attention grabbers for the general public, and while Nintendo likely doesn't care about preconceived notions of hype, I doubt that they'd decide to go totally without any third parties in this pass regardless because that's passing up easy cross-promotion deals and loads of goodwill between the companies. Also, the idea of Nintendo cancelling any third party fighters is absolute balderdash, unless you really think they're going to just end what will likely be a major event (Smash has... w.

Want... okay, you guys probably all know what I'm gonna give this. An infinity minus infinity (or 0%) because get the **** out of here. There's at least a lot of third parties who can bring stuff to Smash literally no first party could, and severalfold more that could handle new mechanics much more cleanly than their Nintendo counterparts. And if that's not enough, then this would be a colossal disappointment to so many people that whoever the six first parties would be would literally need to be six Waluigies in terms of popularity to not have their fandoms totally brutalized and that's not happening. It would probably be a slow brewing disaster. Not only do I not want this for the sake of the third parties, but also for the sake of the first parties.

That being said, if it were just a delay of the third parties rather than a nonpresence or cancellation of them, that'd be a lot better and a lot easier to swallow. Still 0% because the sooner I can get the characters I like, the better.

Frisk x 5. Kasumi is competing with an extremely likely character, her series has fallen from grace, and worst of all she runs the risk of getting Mai Shiranui'd. 5.30%.
 
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