Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Ridrool64]

Round three of major reaches

Chance (Twintelle): 45%. Min-Min might be more popular fandom wise, but if there’s one who took off with the public, it’s her. She could reasonably be based off of Bayonetta as well, which makes her easy to program relative to most candidates. Twintelle is the last of the Spirit Crew, and all of them are viable contenders. Would be very surprised to see her in a Bowser Jr. situation, though.

Want (Twintelle): 40%. As usual, an ARMS rep is something I don’t care about. But Twintelle... I guess she’s liked enough I’d be happy with it. Personally I don’t think she’s that attractive, but she is eye candy so that's nice.

Chance (Byte & Barq/Kid Cobra): 5%. Remember what I said about Mechanica and Master Mummy a while ago? That they have absolutely nothing going for them and are only here for the sake of completion? Well that applies to this duo, too. What reason do either of them have to be the rep?

Want (Both): 20%. For Byte & Barq, I don’t care for how they look, but their gimmick could be nice. I don’t even remember Kid Cobra’s because I forget he even exists. So normally this would have been an abstention since I dunno or care about them enough to rate. But they are characters without base game content, being walking confirmations that it still disconfirms those who have it (more or less deleting most first parties). I’d technically benefit from this, but the fallout isn’t worth it.

Abstaining on Nippon Ichi rep prediction. Red x 5.

 

[warpenguin55]

Mandatory "Twintelle is deconfirmed, her arms don't extend" joke

Abstain from chance because I don't really have thing to say about these characters. Abstain from want because IDC who the arms rep is

Noms: Ahri x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Feeling sick today so I'm gonna abstain on ARMS.

Nominations:
Louie x5

Predictions:
Nippon Ichi rep - 3.75%

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Concept: DLC music packs pre-Twintelle/Byte & Barq/Kid Cobra

Guardian (Destiny) x105
Concept: Fighter from repped third party franchise x105
Gordon Freeman x105
Papyrus x101
Ahri (League of Legends) x100
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x98
Meowth x93

100 - 51

Concept: Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies x90
Frank West x85
Decidueye x82
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Proto Man x75
Sackboy x75
[Rerate] Steve x65
Dr. Eggman x60
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party x55

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Louie x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
[Rerate] Kratos x45
Boss: Ender Dragon x45
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x42
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x40
Zelda (BotW sequel) x40
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x35
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x34
[Rerate] Saki Amamiya x30
Urbosa x30
Giygas x28
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x28
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Red (Angry Birds) x25
The Stretchers x25
Fulgore x25

Under 25

Concept: Second F-Zero rep x23
Rival Pokémon Trainer x22
Stage: Bowser's Castle x22
Concept: Returning stages x21
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x20
Zeraora x15
Black Shadow x15
[Rerate] Rex x15
[Rerate] Captain Toad x14
Gooigi x13
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Concept: No Spirit promotions x10
[Rerate] Nightmare x10
[Rerate] Frisk x10
D.Va x10
The Terrarian x10
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Magolor x7
Taranza x6
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
[Rerate] Toxtricity x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
[Rerate] Takamaru x5
Diablo (Diablo) x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Jin Sakai x5
Deku Scrub x5
[Rerate] Paper Mario x5
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x5
Wolf Link x5
[Rerate] Lip x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2

Guardian, Fighter from repped third party franchise, and Gordon Freeman tie for first place. Papyrus shuffles past 100 noms. Ahri passes Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable to take fifth place.

Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party crosses 50 noms.

The Stretchers and Fulgore reach 25 noms.

Joining the nominations list, we have Wolf Link, a rerate of Lip, and Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020), all with 5 noms.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Twintelle

Chance: 0%
I have a hard time believing she'll be our first ARMS pick. Even if Spring Man is out, she still has to contend with the more popular characters like Min Min. I know she's pretty popular too, but is she THAT popular?
Want: 100%
Honestly, she's my favorite character in the game. She always stood out as the most unique character in the game, which is saying a lot. Plus, who doesn't like French ladies who happen to be worldclass movie stars?

Abstain on Byte & Barq and Kid Cobra. I don't really care much for them.

Nominations: Meowth x2, Decidueye x3

 

[Jomosensual]

Twintelle
Chance 50 - Probably the most likely from todays group. She's somewhat popular. Probably not in the top class of popularity or likeliness but for sure in the 2nd wave of reps that could happen. A dark horse I guess.

Want 50 - Don't really care either way on here. She's one of the many I'd be very ok with but nothing more in either direction.


Byte and Barq
Chance 6 - Not going to happen I don't think. The Arms rep is already going to have good reach, that much we know. I don't think they will also have a minion with them like Rosalina or the Ice Climbers. That feels like too much to me. Going with 6 percent because even though I don't think he's getting in, he was still listed as a potential new comer for Smash on the graphic and therefore has a chance to be in, and 1/16 is roughly 6 percent.

Want 80 - B&B is just so funny to me. I love his little dog. I love him. Just, yeah, I enjoy the character a lot. Holding me back is the fact that super good reach and a minion would be a bit OP to me but hey, otherwise I'm in.


Kid Cobra

Chance 10 - He feels like a lost soul in this discussion, a lot like a few we did last week. Not feeling good on him. He feels too close to Ninjara in my opinion, who is far more likely. Not impossible I suppose but he's likely towards the back end of likeliness

Want 50 - Don't really care either way here again. I like his design but I don't really play as him too much. Not one that would bother me if he was included however.

Predictions:
Nippon Ichi - .6%

Noms:
Guardian x5

 

[amageish]

Again, like Ninjaed, I'm making everything add up to 100%...

Twintelle

Chance: 15%. I'm giving Twintelle my third most likely spot. This is mostly because she's just really popular, especially in the west. She tied for fourth in the Party Crash Bash and Yabuki has listed her as his personal favourite character (though in other interviews he has said Min Min and Spring Man, so he's very indecisive). There also was a lot of buzz around her reveal and plenty of interviews have discussed how they worked hard on her design especially (talking to Nintendo of America and Europe for feedback) and how her positive reception was really energizing to the team. I don't have numerical evidence for this, but her popularity does seem more far-reaching then Min Min - which is my fancy way of saying she's popular with people who didn't bother to play to the end of the Party Crash Bash.

She'd also have a workable unique mechanic and while she may retread some Bayonetta ground, I imagine it'd be easy enough to make her feel different. She also has an easier time getting new close-up attacks then some ARMS characters, as her non-ARMS-powered arms also look pretty strong and would probably hurt to be hit by. I also doubt they'd care that she uses her hair-ARMS to attack. If there was a mechanical gimmick that made her non-representative of ARMS, then that'd be riskier, but I just don't think it matters that the ARMS are in her hair.

Want: 99%. She'd be a lot of fun and is a great character. She gets one point off though, just because she's kind of the one sexualized character in ARMS. I think that works within ARMS, where she's basically the only explicitly sexy one, but it would be kind of funny to pick the one sexy one to rep the franchise in Smash. She's still a badass though.

Byte and Barq

Chance: 1%. Hey, remember when I said "If there was a mechanical gimmick that made her non-representative of ARMS, then that'd be riskier"? This is that. I don't see them picking the tag-team character for Smash.

Want: 70%. They are very cool and funny though. I also just like the notion of this robot deciding to join an international sports competition. It's a funny character premise to me.

Kid Cobra

Chance: 4%. He's possible. He definitely has has fans and has a cool aesthetic. I'm not giving him great odds, but I could see him happening.

Want: 70%. Did you know snakeboarding is a real sport? The more you know!

Predictions: Nippon Ichi? 10%.

Nominations: Oh, right, I didn't actually decide who I'm nominating next. Whoops. I guess I'll nominate Jill's Mii Costume x 5 again...

 

[GoodGrief741]

If ARMS was an American game Twintelle would be the singer and Ribbon Girl the actress

Chance: 15%
Twintelle's popularity is not a trivial matter. She's definitely one of the breakout stars in ARMS. She's a very unique character too. So I can see her being chosen solo for those reasons.

However there's always an asterisk with Twintelle. While she's popular, as far as official sources go Ninjara and Min Min have her beat. Her design is somewhat unorthodox as she fights with her hair, which might make her a poor candidate to represent the game (and depending on how you interpret the quote about arms extending might disconfirm her altogether). And because of that, she can't have or be an alt. So unlike other characters, her shot is alone and just alone, which makes her a less attractive proposition than, say, Min Min, who's popular but can also be included in a manner that allows for more characters and therefore more fanservice.

Want: 95%
She has a great design, and I don't just mean you know what. I like that she's a different character than what we usually see from Nintendo and Japan in general, she's stylish and refined and super casual. She's not my favorite or anything but she is one of my mains in ARMS (basegame she was my main, period).

Bad Boys for Life

Chance: 2%
I really don't see Byte & Barq getting in. They're apparently super unpopular with the fans, plus like Mechanica their design and gimmick gives a very poor impression of what ARMS is about. And I'll echo others when I say that their stiffness would probably feel weird. Obviously they can't be an alt either so I feel like these two are bottom of the barrel chance-wise.

Want: 85%
I don't get the hate, honestly I really dig their design and theme. While I never got the hang of their playstyle I appreciate the intent.

Anaconda (also a joke considered for Twintelle)

Chance: 10%
He could theoretically be solo, I mean nothing's stopping him. He's the guy that was born with ARMS so it makes him a good representation of the game and somewhat notorious lore-wise. And the part about him possibly being a bunch of snakes isn't an obvious thing like Byte's roboticness or Mechanica's mech, so to the layman he's just a regular ARMS dude with a hockey theme to him. However I don't think he's that notable to be included solo. I'm giving him points because he could be an alt, honestly he has one of the most basic gimmicks like Ribbon Girl so that could be done without. If they want to do alts and they want to go the extra mile, this guy could get his shot.

Want: 90%
I'm fine with him. I really like his stage.

Noms: Gordon Freeman x5
Nippon Ichi rep: 2.71%

 

[Calamitas]

If she makes it in, her greatest rival will be Bayonetta

Chance: 30%
On account of her general popularity, I could see it happen, though it really needs to be noted that (at least in my eyes) a lot of her personality comes from people outside of fans of the series, who. . . quite enjoy her design, let's say. Anyway, as others have also already pointed out, Twintelle does not necessarily represent what ARMS really is about all that well, considering that she's one of the outliers among the playable characters who doesn't actually have her arms as, well, ARMS.

Want: 40%
Eh, I could live with her, I suppose. Not really one of my personal frontrunners, though.

Mega Man and R.O.B. welcome them with open ARMS

Chance: 0%
I just don't see Barq and Byte making it in. Based on all I know, they are quite lacking in terms of popularity, and also don't really represent the core concepts of the game all that well.

Want: Abstain.
I don't really have anything to say on them in terms of personal want. I'll pass on rating it.

Kid Cobra? Is he related to Solid Snake?

Chance: 10%
Well, now we're getting to the ARMS characters that I just really can't say much about. From what I can gather, Kid Cobra is just one character out of the cast who's kind of there, and who doesn't necessarily stand out in comparison to the other fighters that much. I'll freely admit that my knowledge on him is highly limited, but I nonetheless don't really see why he would be picked over Spring Man, Ribbon Girl, or Min-Min.

Want: Abstain
Same deal as the Barq and Byte. I just have nothing to say here.

Nominating Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is primarily First-Party x5

Predicting a Nippon Ichi rep to get around 3.33%.

 

[BowserKing]

Twintelle

Chance: 20%. While she has a spirit in the game, her popularity could help her win. Thing is, there is some competition between her and other characters from the game, but she has a good chance of appearing this game, even if Spring-Man and Min-Min are more likely to get in.

Want: 60%. She would be fun to play as , and she has uniqueness in her moveset, and while she is not my most wanted character with hair attacks (Shantae and Dixie Kong are my main choices), but she would be a great choice too. Overall, she would be a fun rep for a game with a good chance of gaining more popularity.

Byte and Barq and Kid Cobra

Chance: 10%. Chances are, they are more likely to be spirits in this game. That does not mean that it is impossible for them to show up. However, competition would defeat them both. That is all I'm going to say about that.

Want: 50%. I don't know too much about them, given the lack of popularity, but they would be fun to play as, and that is what matters in Smash, at least in my opinion. I think they have some decent moveset potential, and overall, would be decent reps.

Prediction: Nippon Rep (10%)

Noms: 2 for Concept: Pokeball Pokémon Promotion and 3 for Stage: Bowser's Castle

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Twintelle

Chances: 1%. I don't think being reasonably popular is remotely enough to represent a franchise You need more than that. Your moveset should reflect what's important about the game. And well, she isn't about using ARMS.

Want: Abstain. Don't play the series enough and she doesn't feel like an interesting choice for me with that in mind.

Byte & Barq

Chances: 0%. Doesn't even have popularity going for them, or have something neat like "you could throw people into the mech but still represent stretching arms with Mechanica". While they represent the ideas of ARMS easily better than Twintelle, so do many other characters.

Want: Again, Abstain.

Kid Cobra

Chances: 0%. Certainly better than some, since they're able to move about with a lot more flexibility, but practically every ARM has some too. Could be an interesting option, not that I think that's enough.

Want: This one looks a bit interesting to me, since I like flexible movesets, and some unique choices. It's a similar reason why Voldo is one of my favorite characters in Soul Calibur. Coincidentally both are snake-related.

Just to clarify, I do think every unused character for playable will get a Spirit and/or Background Cameo, but I'm rating them based upon playable specifically.

Noms: Fulgore x 4, Pikmin & Captain Echo x 1

 

[amageish]

While they represent the ideas of ARMS easily better than Twintelle, so do many other characters.

So... a duo character meant to be unique mechanically within ARMS represents the "ideas of ARMS" better then a character that is pretty standard mechanically but has a unique design decision?

I feel like that's a slightly shallow standard of representation.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

So... a duo character meant to be unique mechanically within ARMS represents the "ideas of ARMS" better then a character that is pretty standard mechanically but has a unique design decision?

I feel like that's a slightly shallow standard of representation.

As long as Twintelle doesn't use her arms, the whole concept of the freaking game, I treat it as a vastly poor representation. She'd the oddball character. All she has is popularity. It's not shallow. It's what the game is about.

And my bad, Barq doesn't use his arms. ...Byte does however. Barq is probably more comparable to things like Luma/Pikmin in how unique they are. Or you could say they're like the Captain. They as a whole still represent the core concept just fine, just don't have the popularity to justify being chosen.

 

[PeridotGX]

Twintelle

Chance - 5%. She'd be a poor first rep for ARMS, because she doesn't use her arms. She gets more than a 1% because at least she's popular

Want: Abstain. I don't care about her. I just don't.

dogcopter

Chance - 1%. They aren't popular or marketable. No reason to be added.

Want: Abstain. I don't care about her. I just don't.

Scoliosis

Chance - .5%. He's not popluar, marketable, or unique. Among the least likely ARMS reps.

Want: Abstain. I don't care about her. I just don't.

Noms: Decidueye x5

 

[amageish]

As long as Twintelle doesn't use her arms, the whole concept of the freaking game, I treat it as a vastly poor representation. She'd the oddball character. All she has is popularity. It's not shallow. It's what the game is about.

And my bad, Barq doesn't use his arms. ...Byte does however. Barq is probably more comparable to things like Luma/Pikmin in how unique they are. Or you could say they're like the Captain. They as a whole still represent the core concept just fine, just don't have the popularity to justify being chosen.

She doesn't use her arms, but she does use her ARMS. Obviously that's splitting hairs, but I don't think it's likely people would confuse Twintelle's giant punches as being from another game, especially as she is one of more publicized characters from ARMS, even if she isn't the posterchild. ARMS has a super diverse roster where everyone is an oddball character to some existent. That's kind of what's cool about it...

Byte does use ARMS and I wasn't saying that's the problem. They definitely would be a Luma-y character and could be super cool, but it's still a major mechanical deviation from how ARMS gameplay works for all other characters. I'd say that is more of an issue then character design.

 

[Ninjaed]

She doesn't use her arms, but she does use her ARMS. Obviously that's splitting hairs, but I don't think it's likely people would confuse Twintelle's giant punches as being from another game, especially as she is one of more publicized characters from ARMS, even if she isn't the posterchild. ARMS has a super diverse roster where everyone is an oddball character to some existent. That's kind of what's cool about it...

Byte does use ARMS and I wasn't saying that's the problem. They definitely would be a Luma-y character and could be super cool, but it's still a major mechanical deviation from how ARMS gameplay works for all other characters. I'd say that is more of an issue then character design.

Hah! Good one.

That aside, while it is true Twintelle is the oddball in that she's the only known individual to have displayed ARMS potential in her hair (refused to be a lab rat too) instead of her regular arms, one could argue Smash already has Spring Man to represent that. He's the quintessential ARMS fighter, and he's already in. So if anything, now's the time to go slightly off-road, which benefits many of the cast - including Min Min (who kicks) and on-topic, Twintelle.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

She doesn't use her arms, but she does use her ARMS. Obviously that's splitting hairs, but I don't think it's likely people would confuse Twintelle's giant punches as being from another game, especially as she is one of more publicized characters from ARMS, even if she isn't the posterchild. ARMS has a super diverse roster where everyone is an oddball character to some existent. That's kind of what's cool about it...

And still the only one who doesn't focus on using her literal arms or something almost identical. That's great for that game. But I don't think it's good enough for Smash. She's an oddball in that game only.

Byte does use ARMS and I wasn't saying that's the problem. They definitely would be a Luma-y character and could be super cool, but it's still a major mechanical deviation from how ARMS gameplay works for all other characters. I'd say that is more of an issue then character design.

I don't honestly feel it is here. Because the deviation is just an extra character. What I see is that Byte uses his literal arms as a core thing still, the concept of the game. So I'd still hard call him a better representation than Twintelle to begin with.

I don't see this as a good comparison. Byte & Barq are absolutely unique, but there's still the general use of one person's arms first and foremost. Most characters do. In fact, isn't Twintelle the only real stand out among that? Mechanica is the only one similar to Twintelle, and it's still basically her arms being used, just through a suit. It's not her "hair" being used, which is a completely different thing. Not that I'd called Mechanica much better. I don't her standing a chance besides a Mech situation like Bowser Jr. at best, and that doesn't really seem fruitful to me. But it'd still represent the game pretty damn well, so I'd consider it easily more likely than Twintelle, if only slightly.

 

[Perkilator]

Guys, can we take this to a different thread if we’re going to argue? Or better yet, not argue at all?

 

[DanganZilla5]

Guys, can we take this to a different thread if we’re going to argue? Or better yet, not argue at all?

I can't and won't speak for the moderators or the thread overlords, but I don't see a reason for this debate to shift into a different thread. It's on-topic and civil so far. If things start to really heat up, then they should take it to PMs. But for now they are fine. Plus, aren't debates welcomed in a thread like this?

 

[NintenRob]

Twintelle
Her unusual design could be argued as a positive and a detriment. On one hand, someone who doesn't have springy arms, and instead uses her hair, could be argued as poor choice for the first character. On the other hand, she has regular arms. That could make her easier to translate and work in the context of Smash, picking up items, interacting with everything and general close range attacks. I don't think either really mean much overall though, Min Min beats her in Popularity according to Party Crash and her legs help make a bit more standardised for more basic attacks. She's one of my favourites in the game though, but I'd still rather Spring Man
Chance 10%
Want 60%

Byte and Barq
Another character I really like in the context of ARMS, I'm not very good at the game so the Barq assist came in handy. However with Smash this dudes a no hoper, not even a consideration to the point I can't even say I want him that much because I just don't see it, plus there's just better choices.
Chance 0%
Want 10%

Kid Cobra
To me this guy is probably the least memorable of the original cast of characters. I have no desire to see him playable or really any desire for him anything. He could be cut from the next ARMS game and I probably wouldn't even notice. I don't see how he could get in except by some miracle Spring Man goes full Bowser Jr with 8 alts, but even that I don't see happening.
Double 0

Nominate content from a currently unreleased game x5

 

[amageish]

I don't see this as a good comparison. Byte & Barq are absolutely unique, but there's still the general use of one person's arms first and foremost. Most characters do. In fact, isn't Twintelle the only real stand out among that? Mechanica is the only one similar to Twintelle, and it's still basically her arms being used, just through a suit. It's not her "hair" being used, which is a completely different thing. Not that I'd called Mechanica much better. I don't her standing a chance besides a Mech situation like Bowser Jr. at best, and that doesn't really seem fruitful to me. But it'd still represent the game pretty damn well, so I'd consider it easily more likely than Twintelle, if only slightly.

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, okay. I see your point better now. Yes, Twintelle is the only character who doesn't practically use her arms (or arm-like things that hang off the side of their body) as ARMS. Personally, I'd consider the platonic ideal of an ARMS character to be a character who primarily attacks via long-distance punches, possibly with the option of various ARMS to top off the attack. They also have their personal gimmick being used to supplement this base moveset. I don't really care about the lore of this character (I think Twintelle, Mechanica, and Dr Coyle are all fine, in spite of the hair/mech-suit/artificially-induced ARMS), but wouldn't want their unique ability to overextend and distract from the punching (which I think Barq would risk). That said, I do get that standard as a basic ARMS moveset and how Byte/Barq work better for that standard.

 

[GoodGrief741]

And still the only one who doesn't focus on using her literal arms or something almost identical.

Oh please, you're being obtuse. Her ARMS are identical to everyone else's ARMS save for the point of origin. I agree that it's disruptive, but she still gets the point of the game across much better than a duo character, or a mech pilot.

Guys, can we take this to a different thread if we’re going to argue? Or better yet, not argue at all?

I can't and won't speak for the moderators or the thread overlords, but I don't see a reason for this debate to shift into a different thread. It's on-topic and civil so far. If things start to really heat up, then they should take it to PMs. But for now they are fine. Plus, aren't debates welcomed in a thread like this?

Debate, as long as it's civil (and it's far from veering into incivility), is not only allowed but encouraged. If you can't back up your claims, then they aren't very well thought out now, are they?

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Oh please, you're being obtuse. Her ARMS are identical to everyone else's ARMS save for the point of origin. I agree that it's disruptive, but she still gets the point of the game across much better than a duo character, or a mech pilot.

I'd say that point of origin is the entire difference here. I treat mechanical arms as identical to regular arms in this case for a reason. Where are they on the body? In the same place as your normal arm. Fighting with an arm and punches(but especially with an arm) is what I see as the core thing about this game. Twintelle has punches, but does not fight with her arms. As tons of arms just replace a person's normal human arm(like, say, Mario), they're pretty much identical in that regard. Byte and Mechanica slightly mix it up, but aren't that odd. Their mechanics are the fact their physical arm cannot stretch, but all they did was put a mechanical version to replace the same body position.

That should explain my point better. But yeah, I only see her popularity giving her a ghost of a chance anyway.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

GoodGrief741 took the words out of my mouth, but I’ll elaborate. Debate is fine and encouraged. While it is natural to have opinions, you have to back them up in some way. I could post how Lolla Pop, being an abomination and the worst arms character, is Unlikely. But I need to back that up with her relative unpopularity, her competition with other arms characters, and her lack of presence in Arms itself.


There really are only a few situations when a debate will get called out imo.
1. Excessive after the day is over. There is a grace period but still. I have had to call people out on this in the past (someone even pmed me about how I ended the day to stifle the debate once). If it’s after the 1 hour grace period, it’s off topic.
2. Off topic stuff. Self explanatory
3. Being stupid. If you are making a point, think it through. Opinions are most of this thread, but try to back up what you say. This is part of why the sentence rule was put in place. It’s easier to have discussion and debate when people think about their score and reasons. If ya wanna do something like give a popular character a low score, be ready to defend it. Or if ya wanna make a strong prediction, make your case. I can give both great and awful examples for both cases.
4. being a ****. Look, it’s a debate. If someone is bringing up holes in your argument, don’t overreact. Don’t name call, don’t be a jerk. Don’t misrepresent their arguments. And if someone is giving you constructive criticism, don’t be a ******* and ignore it completely or act disrespectful.

Tdlr debate away. So long as it’s civil and on topic and logical to an extent it’s kosher.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Fighting with an arm and punches(but especially with an arm) is what I see as the core thing about this game.

I get what you're saying, but other characters stray much more from this concept. Twintelle does stand out, but from a design perspective, not from a gameplay perspective. You can still look at her in action, without context, and deduce more or less what ARMS is about. You look at Byte and Barq out of context and you're going to think ARMS is a much different game than it is - hell, they wouldn't seem that out of place in Astral Chain. Their playstyle in is gimmicky beyond the common gimmick of the punched, so even though he does have ARMS and Twintelle has... HAIR, I think she gets the point across better. But neither is ideal, I think we can agree on that.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I get what you're saying, but other characters stray much more from this concept. Twintelle does stand out, but from a design perspective, not from a gameplay perspective. You can still look at her in action, without context, and deduce more or less what ARMS is about. You look at Byte and Barq out of context and you're going to think ARMS is a much different game than it is - hell, they wouldn't seem that out of place in Astral Chain. Their playstyle in is gimmicky beyond the common gimmick of the punched, so even though he does have ARMS and Twintelle has... HAIR, I think she gets the point across better. But neither is ideal, I think we can agree on that.

Eh, I'd say punching with hair and punching with a clear arm are a huge difference. I only feel Twintelle actually strays from that while the rest don't overall. They slightly change it up, but she's the only one that stands out to me as someone who doesn't use her actual arms to fight. Somebody who uses their arms to fight and has another cool mechanic? I still think they better represent the game regardless.

That's why I treat Byte & Barq and Mechanica representing it better than Twintelle. But I agree it's not much better. Just slightly at this point.

I'd rather see someone way more important in the game get the slot too. Not based upon popularity, but story/mascot which help representing a lot of what the game is about. I listed my core chances of those who I think have an actual good chance.

 

[Simnm]

Twintelle:
Chance:20%
Though a fan faovourite i dont think nintendo or sakurai as they will most likely pick someone from arms as a rep as she uses her hair instead of her arms to punch.i dont really think the reason for her being a fan favourite is enough to warrant her to be the arms rep(though i could be wrong)
Want:50%
Shed be cool.though i do thing that there are other arms fighters that would represent the series better.

Kid cobra:
Chance:10%
I dont think nintendo or sakurai will pick kid cobra because of the fact he is not that much of a fan faovourite.also the fact that he wont rep the arms series as other choices

Want:45%
I think that there other arms fighters that represent the series better.thats all i really need to say.

Byte and barq:
Chance:3%
I personally think that he is one of the least likeliest fightersas his main mechanic of him having companion simlairly to rosalina and luma to decantralised for him to represent the main concept of arms.i also dont think he would represent the arms ip that well.
Want:40%
Theyre pretty cool.though they're mechanic would be too decentralised for them to rep arms properly

(I aciddentally posted this when i just started typing this)

Nominations:steve[rerate]×5

 

[Ninjaed]

You look at Byte and Barq out of context and you're going to think ARMS is a much different game than it is - hell, they wouldn't seem that out of place in Astral Chain.

Huh, I never made the link. In hindsight, it's easy to make the parallel - both involve a cops duo.

But yeah, as fun as a concept Byte & Barq could give us in smash, it strays too far from the main concept for a first rep (AT Spring Man notwithstanding). Just like how we got several Mario characters before we got Rosalina & Luma, ARMS should wait for at least the 2nd character slot to go crazy with Byte & Barq, Helix and so on. Because ARMS already has an AT, there's a bit more leeway but still.

 

[Sari]

Twintelle

I was tempted to post a certain popular 90's hip-hop song for Twintelle's music post (you know the one).

Chance: 20%
She's pretty popular so I can see her having priority over most of the other characters. Main issue is that she fights with her hair so it might be hard for them to make her an alt unlike most of the other characters.

Want: 95%
Great design and looks fun to play as so I'd be down for Twintelle. Having a POC be playable when Smash doesn't have that many would also be a nice bonus.

-----

Abstaining completely on the other two since I don't know much about them and I'm really not in the mood right now.

Nippon Ichi rep chance prediction: 8.00%

Nominations
Zelda (BotW sequel) x5

 

[fogbadge]

I was tempted to post a certain popular 90's hip-hop song for Twintelle's music post (you know the one).

i do not

 

[Swamp Sensei]

i do not

You probably do, but just don't realize you do.

 

[fogbadge]

You probably do, but just don't realize you do.

my knowledge of pop music is virtually non existent so not likely

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Concept: Nippon Ichi rep.

Predict... Baldi from Baldi's Basics (oh boy it's gonna one of those days isn't it?)

Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the Nippon Ichi mood:

Spoiler: Nippon Ichi Music

 

[Perkilator]

This game’s winner is…MAI!
Anyways, I’m abstaining. Don’t care enough about Nippon Ichi to give a fair judgement.

Baldi: 0%
Noms: Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

I was tempted to post a certain popular 90's hip-hop song for Twintelle's music post (you know the one).

Heh heh, I thought the same thing.

 

[DanganZilla5]

Sari Are we including NIS America since its a branch of Nippon Ichi?

 

[Sari]

That one quote Mai says whenever she wins a round in KoF.

Abstaining since I'm not in the mood and don't know much about them apart from playing like 10 minutes of the first Disgaea.

Baldi chance prediction: 0.30%

Nominations:
Zelda (BotW sequel) x25

 

[Sid-cada]

Twintelle

Chance - 0% - I just can't see ARMS going with a character who doesn't have ARMS for their arms. (That's a sentence...) While she technically has ARMS, their on her hair, which I think differentiates her enough that having her for the introductory character is a misrepresentation that I can't see her getting in first. She's not even the most popular anyway, that probably goes to Min Min.

Want - 50% - I'd mostly be happy with any reasonable ARMS pick. That said, having someone who doesn't have arms is such a foreign concept that I'm kinda weirded out by it.

Byte and Barq

Chance - 0% - I think having such stretchy arms is enough of a gimmick that adding too much past that would get overly-gimmicky. Being a puppeteer-esque fighter might work great in ARMS, but in Smash I think it's simply too much.

Want - 40% - Seems too gimmicky to me. I have a distaste for overly-complex characters, and having Barq seems like it would be too much on top of the range for ARMS.

Kid Cobra

Chance - 2.5% - He has some popularity (he was considered overpowered in the early days), so he's not completely out of the blue. Still, there are more popular and iconic characters they could choose. He probably doesn't have what it takes.

Want - 60% - He'd be okay, but I would rather have Spring Man. Still, he's at least somewhat cool; we don't have an extreme sports guy yet, and he could fill that niche.


Nomination

Lip X5

 

[Jomosensual]

Abstaining because I've heard of 0 games from Nippon

Predictions
Baldi - 0%

Noms
Guardian x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Sari Are we including NIS America since its a branch of Nippon Ichi?

As NIS America is just a publishing arm, they likely don't own the IP of what they publish.