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Gex
Chance: 1%
Sorry bud, I just don't see it happening. First off, his series status. Gex hasn't seen a new release since 1999 with Gex 3: Deep Cover Gecko. To put it into perspective, That's the year I was born. I've gone pretty much the entirety of my life without a new Gex game in sight. While Banjo had a fairly similar issue with relevancy, he also had massive fan demand as well as a cult status surrounding his game. Gex does not, at least for the time being. There's also the factor of the company that currently owns him, Square Enix. Needless to say they're quite the hot ticket item when it comes to potential Smash candidates. Geno, Chrono, Neku, and fellow Eidos carryover Lara Croft are all other SquareEnix characters with a whole lot more notoriety and/or fan demand in comparison. To see a one liner flinging reptile who hasn't been relevant in decades to get prioritized before any of them would be... odd to say the least
Want 60%
Gex is a slight ironic want for me. He's an absolutely legendary video game character for all the wrong reasons. Get him in smash with all his outdated pop culture references (and maybe add in some new ones too while you're at it) and I'll eat it all up. We could use a comic relief character every once in a while. While we're at it, give him a revival too. If Bubsy of all series could get one, so should Gex
Chance: 0%
Western-exclusive(?) third-party franchise that hasn't seen a new entry of any kind for over two decades. Pretty much no support from the Smash fanbase. This one definitely ain't happening.
Want: Abstain
I know next to nothing about this game series or the character. All I know that the games have tank controls (I think) and that Gex has a mouth and isn't afraid to use it to let us know it's tail time.
THESE CHARACTERS ARE LOCKED DOWN, NOMINATIONS FOR THEM ARE OBSOLETE
Day 420: Chun-Li (Street Fighter)
Day 421: Hornet (Hollow Knight)
Day 422: Gnar (League of Legends)
Day 423: Segata Sanshiro
Day 424: Falinks (Pokémon)
Day 425: Concept: Devolver Digital rep
Day 426: Bubsy (Bubsy)
Hornet got a last minute boost due to extra nominations and managed to pass Gnar and take second place. The rest of the top seven saw a lot of nominations thrown around, but they canceled each other out. Alucard and Sirfetch'd got locked out of the schedule, but they're now big fish in a smaller pond.
Your new top seven consists of Alucard, Sirfetch'd, New Zelda character, Decidueye, Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable, Proto Man, Papyrus, Sackboy, A character who isn't the star of their own game, Contra rep, and Minato Arisato. Yeah, that's quite a doozy, if only because the last 6 are all tied - I expect the latter three to stay because they're getting noms daily, but who knows?
Alucard (Castlevania) x95
Sirfetch'd x95
Concept: New Zelda character x88
Decidueye x80
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Concept: A character who isn't the star of their own game x75
Concept: Contra rep x75
Minato Arisato x75
100 - 51
Meowth x74
Concept: Darksiders rep x70
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x70
[Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x70
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone) x65
Junko & Monokuma x60
Earthworm Jim x55
Concept: DLC music packs x55
50 - 25
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Axel Stone x50
Concept: Level-5 rep x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Boss: Ender Dragon x37
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
Terra Branford x35
Concept: Nippon Ichi rep x35
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x32
[Rerate] Kratos x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25
Under 25
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x21
Concept: Returning stages x21
Ahri (League of Legends) x20
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x16
Zeraora x15
Guardian (Destiny) x15
Baldi (Baldi's Basics) x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gooigi x10
[Rerate] Steve x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Concept: No third parties in this Pass x10
Black Shadow x8
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Magolor x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
[Rerate] Toxtricity x5
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x5
Stage: Bowser's Castle x3
3 Mage Sisters x2
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x2
Concept: DLC music packs dances past 50 noms.
Ramen Tengoku
you'll probably want to change your noms, as Segata's good to go
I'll be honest, I didn't think Gex was anything more than a half-in-jest pick, like the Unsafe Wiimote Guy or Bubsy. My exposure to Gex was just knowing about the constant celebrity jokes and a half-remembered gameplay video of the first game by Cinemassacre. So imagine my surprise when I did research, and found out that not only did the Gex games get good-to-great reviews, but they sold 15 million copies?? How in the actual **** did that happen?
So, yeah, I'm gonna play those games. I'll abstain on want.
Sadly, that barely makes a difference for his chance score because Gex is owned by Square Enix, where he's outclassed by everyone. But this took Gex from like a 0 to a 2% and that's something.
Noms: Earthworm Jim x5
Chun-Li prediction: I can't believe we rated Freddy Fazbear before we rated her, y'all better give a high score to compensate. 35.82%
Abstain. All I know about Gex is from those Nitro Rad videos, and I haven't seen them in a while. Though didn't someone talk about reviving the series? Whatever happened to that?
Nominations: [Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5
Lara Croft. There, that alone invalidates Gex. Then since SE got the rights now, you have plenty of SE reps to consider too. I'm not sure Gex qualifies as an icon, but what I do know is that it's not influential in the gaming world. It basically left no legacy aside from its own, where games like Metroid, Castlevania, Doom or Rogue spawned entire genres and subgenres. Or Persona which inspired bonding systems. Doesn't mean you can't enjoy the games or that they're bad. Just that they didn't pioneer anything. At least Shenmue can claim to that legacy, despite flopping 3 times in a row. Out of 3 times. Yikes.
Little late as I was busy bracing for a storm that never came, or at least wasn't nearly as bad as I was anticipating.
Chance Key: Green = Frontrunner (50+%), Blue = Solid Shot (35+%), White is Possible (20+%), Orange is Feasible (15+%), Orange Red is considered Unlikely (10+%), Light Red is Very Unlikely (5%) and Deep Red is below that, Pipe Dream. The lower tiers are once again getting a split.
By chance:
(KOEI-TECMO, Ninja Gaiden) Ryu Hayabusa: 59.48% Chance - Likeliest character
(Activision-Blizzard, self titled) Crash Bandicoot: 59.26% Chance - Likeliest Western character
(BANDAI-NAMCO, Tales of) Lloyd Irving: 50.29% Chance - Likeliest character from a 3rd party company with a fighter
(Capcom, Devil May Cry) Dante: 49.38% Chance
(Grasshopper Manufacture, No More Heroes) Travis Touchdown: 45.28% Chance
Carmen Sandiego: 4.43% Chance - Most notable combination of least likely and most wanted, Pipe Dream Award
Midna: 4.33% Chance
Freddy Fazbear: 4.31% Chance
Bomberman: 4.16% Chance
Ryo Hazuki: 3.59% Chance
Octopath Traveler rep: 3.47% Chance - Least likely third party from a company with a Fighter
Reporter & Wrestler: 3.40% Chance
Thrall: 3.07% Chance
Crypto: 2.67% Chance
Obstagoon: 2.18% Chance
Vault Boy: 1.82% Chance
Melmetal: 1.71% Chance - Least likely character from a repped series, least likely first/second party, least likely Japanese character
The Blob: 1.14% Chance
Hat Kid: 0.85% Chance - Least likely character
Want key: Pink = Community Stars (#FF69B4) [65+%], Brown = Fan Favorites [#8B4513] (60+%), Yellow = Popular (40+%), Purple is Average (25+%), Black is Unpopular (below 25%).
By want:
(Activision, self-titled) Crash Bandicoot: 75.78% Want - Most wanted character
Echo Fighters as DLC: 75.40% Want - Most wanted non-Fighter concept
(Nintendo, Kirby) Bandana Dee: 74.41% Want - Most wanted first party, most wanted Japanese character, most wanted from a repped series
(Capcom, Ace Attorney) Phoenix Wright: 70.91% Want - Most wanted third party from a company with a fighter
Octopath Traveler rep: 51.00% Want (epic, I forgot this)
Rex: 50.95% Want
The Knight: 50.12% Want
Lloyd Irving: 47.85% Want - Worse want total than chance total, the "dread it, run from it, it still arrives" award
Quote (Mii Costume): 47.54% Want
Dovahkiin: 47.40% Want
Toxtricity: 41.62% Want
Monster Hunter: 37.33% Want
Ragna the Bloodedge: 37.19% Want
Big Daddy: 36.92% Want
Reporter & Wrestler: 36.69% Want
KOS-MOS: 35.24% Want
The Blob: 28.88% Want
Ryo Hazuki: 28.27% Want
Cinderace: 27.71% Want
Crypto: 27.63% Want
Rillaboom: 27.47% Want
Inteleon: 27.00% Want
Thrall: 26.50% Want
Hat Kid: 23.69% Want
Tracer: 22.73% Want
Melmetal: 21.10% Want
Vault Boy: 20.40% Want
Obstagoon: 18.27% Want
Freddy Fazbear: 17.48% Want
Urshifu: 16.46% Want
The Deceased: Honorable mentions to Bendy and Warframe reps, who were never in consideration but got whacked during Volume 2 speculation. And now Animal Crossing: New Horizons characters join them.
Takeaways: Ryo got whupped. I mean I didn't think this many people would give him low want scores, though it was a fair bit of abstentions. Big Daddy was mostly abstentions. Paper Mario had a very interesting day as one individual gave perhaps the most unusual reason to not want a character, and to avoid conflicts here I won't discuss it or give my take. But if we predicted wants, I would have probably settled for 50%-something, not contending with Geno. Quote did interestingly for a Mii Costume; I somewhat expected Lloyd to no longer be alone in chance beating want. Not much to say on Reporter & Wrestler.
---
First Wizards (well, wizard swordsman, who is mostly a swordsman, and insectoid, and not really a wizard) and now Lizards.
Chance: 0%. Basically next to no hope of getting in Smash in this game, or the next, or the next. Firstly, the series has been dead for, what, two decades? He's kinda got nothing to promote. Next, while I don't think being western is a problem per-se, I don't think he's anywhere near first in line. And then, he's fighting a bunch of other 90's mascot platformers and other characters from Square-Enix. And after THAT, he's got basically no fan demand. But what I think the final nail in the coffin is, is that he doesn't really DO that much for an interesting moveset. Tail swipe, pogo... after that, it's mostly movie references and that's its own territory. Would have my jaw on the floor if he was in the pass.
Want: 40%. It'll provide funny memes. But beyond that, Gex really doesn't have anything to offer. I'll pass on him.
SNES FF rep x 5 & DLC Music x 5. Chun-Li would be a unique second character from a third party franchise in Smash, and this is going to basically decide the fate of many of these. My take is 13.20%.
(not meant to be a jab at Lara fans, don't worry. I just thought it'd be funny to head the rating with that expression in the image xP)
Gex the Gecko
Chance: 5% - As funny as he is, unfortunately Gex has a lot working against him. His series has been dormant since 1999, his games were never released in Japan, and, most importantly, he's a Square Enix character. A company that has one of the most hotly contested catagories with numerous characters that have more fan demand and relevance. Unless a new entry or remake is secretly in the works, I doubt we'll be seeing this anytime soon (though it could happen, we haven't seen much from Eidos since 2018). His quips would make him difficult to localize, but if kept focused on the other characters it could be done well. Plain and simple, Gex has a lot of obstacles.
However, Gex has a few benefits on his side as well. Back in 2015 when Square Enix bought Eidos, they announced that they'd allow new projects for Crystal Dynamics IP, and even mentioned Gex by name. While this was five years ago, it does show that they still remember the character, and for all we know there really could be something on the backburner (and were we really expecting Bubsy to come back? Gex could do the same). Furthermore, the one good thing about being owned by Square Enix is that he's now in the hands of a Japanese company, thus negotiations would be much easier, and while I can see Sakurai choosing Lara instead for her history, he'd no doubt see potential in Gex. I can imagine that Gex wouldn't be expensive to license. Let's not forget that Sakurai has wanted to add a James Bond-esque character for a long time, and Gex's secret agent role in 2 and 3 would fit the bill perfectly.
Gex also has a lot of Nintendo history. All but one of his games (the first) were on Nintendo consoles (N64 mainly), and he even got a Gameboy exclusive version of Gex 3. That screams Virtual Console potential and is much more than a lot of his competition (such as Lara, 2B, Sora, etc). There's a spark of Nintendo appeal there. Though I'm being optimistic, any little bit helps.
Finally, there's the surprise impact of his series. His games were praised by critics, and those who know more than just the pop culture references have seen that the games are actually very fun, and have a very creative premise. Alongside this his franchise has sold 15 million units, with 6 million from Gex 3 alone, which is an incredible feat for both the time and for doing so within a single console generation. Keep in mind that this is a higher figure than a lot of popular series both in and desired to get into Smash by fans, such as Fire Emblem (13 million), Splatoon (14 million), DOOM (9 million), Persona (10 million), and Banjo-Kazooie (7 million). I know sales aren't everything, but this is evidence that, like Crash, he wasn't just another cartoony animal mascot. In his time he was very successful, and would've been even more so if there weren't exceptional animal stars like Sonic and Crash.
Want: 90% - Gex would be an absolutely hilarious addition to the roster and would bring a surprising amount to the table. The TV theme could make for a stage with several unique settings that change instantly with the channel (in the vain of transforming stages like Castle Siege), and the wild themes they could play with could make for a unique flavor. Gex himself uses various move types based on the channel he's in (such as Kung Fu, a mech bodysuit, wrestling moves, etc) that could easily fill out a moveset with wacky ideas. Alongside that his tail bounce and ability to climb walls would give him an interesting niche as a character. Characters like Greninja and Shiek(?) can latch onto walls but we have yet to see a character why can climb them, and this would make Gex very interesting to play. And let's not forget the quips! If done right, they could actually be super funny! Giving him commentary on the characters (either auto with one or two per character per match, or manually activated by a taunt) could make for a very funny character with a lot of personality!
Once you look past the references, there's a surprising amount that Gex brings to the table!
Nominations:
Concept: Civilization series stage with music (standalone) x10
Gex has Nintendo presence, a trilogy of games, and shockingly, they got a combined total of 15 million units? What? But other than that, that is all the positives for Gex. He is a product of his time and he hasn't gotten a game in almost 2 decades with no new games in site. He has very little (unironic) fan requests and what's worst is that he's owned by Square, who has Geno, Sora, Lara Croft, and 2B. Yeah no way this guy has a chance. He is the definition of a pipe dream.
Want: 30%
Gex would certainly be a hilarious pick. He is wise-cracking and has a lot of personality. The TV gimmick could make for a fun stage that switches between different themes. I just don't have much personal experience with his games and there are many characters I want to see before him.
(not meant to be a jab at Lara fans, don't worry. I just thought it'd be funny to head the rating with that expression in the image xP)
Gex the Gecko
Chance: 5% - As funny as he is, unfortunately Gex has a lot working against him. His series has been dormant since 1999, his games were never released in Japan, and, most importantly, he's a Square Enix character. A company that has one of the most hotly contested catagories with numerous characters that have more fan demand and relevance. Unless a new entry or remake is secretly in the works, I doubt we'll be seeing this anytime soon (though it could happen, we haven't seen much from Eidos since 2018). His quips would make him difficult to localize, but if kept focused on the other characters it could be done well. Plain and simple, Gex has a lot of obstacles.
However, Gex has a few benefits on his side as well. Back in 2015 when Square Enix bought Eidos, they announced that they'd allow new projects for Crystal Dynamics IP, and even mentioned Gex by name. While this was five years ago, it does show that they still remember the character, and for all we know there really could be something on the backburner (and were we really expecting Bubsy to come back? Gex could do the same). Furthermore, the one good thing about being owned by Square Enix is that he's now in the hands of a Japanese company, thus negotiations would be much easier, and while I can see Sakurai choosing Lara instead for her history, he'd no doubt see potential in Gex. I can imagine that Gex wouldn't be expensive to license. Let's not forget that Sakurai has wanted to add a James Bond-esque character for a long time, and Gex's secret agent role in 2 and 3 would fit the bill perfectly.
Gex also has a lot of Nintendo history. All but one of his games (the first) were on Nintendo consoles (N64 mainly), and he even got a Gameboy exclusive version of Gex 3. That screams Virtual Console potential and is much more than a lot of his competition (such as Lara, 2B, Sora, etc). There's a spark of Nintendo appeal there. Though I'm being optimistic, any little bit helps.
Finally, there's the surprise impact of his series. His games were praised by critics, and those who know more than just the pop culture references have seen that the games are actually very fun, and have a very creative premise. Alongside this his franchise has sold 15 million units, with 6 million from Gex 3 alone, which is an incredible feat for both the time and for doing so within a single console generation. Keep in mind that this is a higher figure than a lot of popular series both in and desired to get into Smash by fans, such as Fire Emblem (13 million), Splatoon (14 million), DOOM (9 million), Persona (10 million), and Banjo-Kazooie (7 million). I know sales aren't everything, but this is evidence that, like Crash, he wasn't just another cartoony animal mascot. In his time he was very successful, and would've been even more so if there weren't exceptional animal stars like Sonic and Crash.
Want: 90% - Gex would be an absolutely hilarious addition to the roster and would bring a surprising amount to the table. The TV theme could make for a stage with several unique settings that change instantly with the channel (in the vain of transforming stages like Castle Siege), and the wild themes they could play with could make for a unique flavor. Gex himself uses various move types based on the channel he's in (such as Kung Fu, a mech bodysuit, wrestling moves, etc) that could easily fill out a moveset with wacky ideas. Alongside that his tail bounce and ability to climb walls would give him an interesting niche as a character. Characters like Greninja and Shiek(?) can latch onto walls but we have yet to see a character why can climb them, and this would make Gex very interesting to play. And let's not forget the quips! If done right, they could actually be super funny! Giving him commentary on the characters (either auto with one or two per character per match, or manually activated by a taunt) could make for a very funny character with a lot of personality!
Once you look past the references, there's a surprising amount that Gex brings to the table!
Nominations:
Concept: Civilization series stage with music (standalone) x10
Chance: 1%
I don't know anything about this character, but apparently he's from Square Enix. That alone makes it really unlikely. We already got a newcomer that is Hero, and I don't know if they're willing to add another. Even if they do, there are too much competition for Gex. Geno, Lara, Bravely Default rep, and not to mention, Sora himself. I doubt Square Enix will choose a character from a dead series over them.
Want: Abstain
Like I said above, I hardly know anything about this character.
Chance: 10%. While Gex came from a lesser known franchise, it does not mean that is is impossible. Of course the biggest issue is how many characters that Gex is competing against, and chances are, Gex may not be in the game, but like I said, it's not impossible.
Want: 60%. Gex would be a fun character to play as, with some unique moves. I can see Gex ally with Snake in any random Battle, but also Gex facing off against King K.Rool and Bowser. I think Gex would be a unique choice for an underrated game rep, and who knows what will happen.
Prediction: Chun Li: 15%
Noms: 2 for Concept: Second F-Zero Rep and 3 for Echo: Lord Fredrick (67E)
Well like what most people have said about Gex, the IP hasn't seen a new entry for over 2 decade. There's also the fact that Gex hasn't appeared in a game since Xbox's Mad Dash Racing. That's pretty much the killing blow for him since SE doesn't seem interested in a remake or a re-release of 1 of the Gex games. Even if they remark that the Gex IP could be used, it doesn't mean it will.
Want: 25%
Well, I'd probably want Gex in Smash because of the shock value of him being an SE character despite him not having any appearances in any SE games that I know of. However, I do prefer Lara, Adam Jensen, and Agent 47 (even though SE no longer owns the Hitman IP) over fellow lizard boy as the "unofficial" Eidos rep since I've at least played 1 of their games and enjoyed them enough for me to get behind their possible inclusions someday. --------------- Predictions:
Chuns - 21% --------------- Noms:
Lu Bu x5
Chance: 0%
There hasn't been a new Gex game in over 20 years and the company that owns Gex is now a part of Square Enix. If Nintendo wants another Square Enix character then there's no way they'll choose Gex over characters like Sora and Lara Croft.
Want: Abstain
Haven't played his games so I won't comment.
Chun-Li chance prediction: 15.00% (I still can't believe we have never rated her)
Oof, the poor lizard has a slew of things stacked against him. Not only a western character whose games aren't localized in Japan last I check but has super stiff competition from the company that owns him: Square Enix with characters more demanded like Geno, Sora, 2B, etc.
It doesn't help Crash and Rayman muscle in as platformers and beat him down all around, even Spyro has more of a shot to be in and he's not getting in before Crash.
Want: 85%
I would love this gecko's character and commentary. He's not high on my nostalgia meter like Crash tho.
Chance: 5%
Man has a lot going against him in terms of series representation considering this is the same company that has Geno and 2B. He's also basically a meme character but at the same time I can see that also working in his favor. All it would take is one video on it.
Want: Abstain
Only know him from memes and gameplay footage
Gex has sold more than Fire Emblem, so that means we're getting 9 characters from this series, right?
Chance: 5%
He may have been big back in the '90s, but nowadays, not so much. He hasn't had a new game in 20 years, he doesn't have the insane fan demand that Banjo did, and his games were never released in Japan in the first place. He's also currently owned by Square Enix, who already have several more well-known/requested characters to their name. Like Cronro, Lara Croft, Geno, Sora, and so on.
Want: 60%
I just want Gex back in general, Smash or not. He's been gone for way too long.
The Strongest Woman in the World
Chance: 10%
She’s certainly popular, and no one can deny that. However, we already have 3 Capcom reps, with one being an Echo. Not to mention that any 3rd party series with more than one rep (by that I mean the TWO series, Street Fighter and Castlevania) have their second rep as an Echo.
Want: 50%
I like Chun-Li a lot, both in moveset and as a character. She may not be my most wanted 4th Capcom rep (that’d be Jill Valentine), but I‘d still be happy to see her.
Everybody and their mothers would recreate that EVO moment if she moments Chance: 1%
I get that she's the most iconic woman in fighting games and one of the most iconic in gaming in general but a huge problem for her is Street Fighter already being represented in the base game, arguably well enough, with the two SF characters more famous than her. Creating a challenger pack for another SF character would simply be more redundant as opposed to another unrepresented Capcom franchise. It already has a stage, music, a spirit list and everything.
Chance 10 - Think usually someone with her resume would have a better chance. Street Fighter is an iconic series from a company that partners with Nintendo and has tons of content in the game already. Chun Li is also a pretty well known and popular character from the series. The main issue is that we already have 2 Street Fighter reps in the game and it doesn't feel likely that we get a 3rd and especially not as DLC. There's also just crap ton of good picks from Capcom like Phoenix, Dante, and Jill and Leon from RE(who I think might actually not be dead anymore due to their games being remade. I don't think either is likely at all but they're above 0 percent for me now).
Want 60 - I'd take Chun Li. She probably should have gotten in before Ken. While I wouldn't be super stoked about another Street Fighter rep it would be hard to dislike Chun Li getting into Smash because she just feels like a character who deserves it.
Chance: 10% - She's definitely a frontrunner for a third Street Fighter rep, and one of the genre's most iconic characters. But Street Fighter already has base game content and got another fighter in the form of Ken. Thus it'd be difficult to make an entirely new Challenger Pack around her. She'd definitely have a stage, but spirits and music would be a whole different story. Capcom loves Street Fighter but I can see Sakurai or Nintendo pushing for a different IP if Capcom were to dip their toes into the DLC.
Want: 5% - She's certainly earned it, but if we're getting another Capcom rep, I'd much rather see Phoenix Wright or another new IP rather than a third Street Fighter character. The frachise is already well represented as-is. I wouldn't have any issues if she or another Street Fighter character were chosen but I can't say I'd be excited.
Nominations:
Civilization series stage with music (standalone) x5
Chance: 1%
The main reason behind this low score is that Capcom has other huge candidates to pick, whereas Chun-Li is another SF rep. A series with 2 reps in Smash already. If they were given the choice, I highly doubt they'd go for more Street Fighter when they could go Monster Hunter (admittedly unlikely), Devil May Cry, Resident Evil, Ace Attorney, Okami and more. Besides, if Smash gets another fighting game character, I'm fairly certain it'd be from another franchise, be it Tekken, Soul Calibur or else. And that's if Capcom does get another rep in that Pass.
Want: 0%
No real attachment to the series nor to the character. I hate how command inputs work. If we do get a traditional fighting game character, I'd rather it be a rep from another franchise like Heihachi. Bringing variety. Don't really need another auto-turning D-tilt spammer.
Chance: 10%
If we are getting another Street Fighter character, Chun-Li is without a doubt the next in line. She is super iconic and quite possibly the most glaring female character omission in Smash (how many other characters have a Nicki Minaj song named after them?). That said though, with two Street Fighter characters already in the game I feel like Sakurai would rather bargain for Capcom characters from other series instead.
Want: 85%
While my next preferred Street Fighter character would be Alex (purely a guilty pleasure pick), Chun-Li definitely deserves the spot more. She is the definitive female fighter plus we need more kick-based fighters.
Hornet chance prediction: 1.74% (don't we need The Knight first?)
Chance:0%: We already have two street fighter reps, and Capcom has a ton of other properties they can pick from. Devil May Cry, Monster Hunter, Resident Evil, Mega Man, Ace Attorney, Okami, Strider, etc... There is no way Capcom is giving us ANOTHER Street Fighter rep.
Want:70%: I love Street Fighter, but not gonna lie; Chun isn't my next pick. I'd choose someone like Cody or Dan or Vega. Or hell, M. Bison.
Nominations: Minato Arisato x5
Chance:0%: We already have two street fighter reps, and Capcom has a ton of other properties they can pick from. Devil May Cry, Monster Hunter, Resident Evil, Mega Man, Ace Attorney, Okami, Strider, etc... There is no way Capcom is giving us ANOTHER Street Fighter rep.
Want:70%: I love Street Fighter, but not gonna lie; Chun isn't my next pick. I'd choose someone like Cody or Dan or Vega. Or hell, M. Bison.
Nominations: Minato Arisato x5
I wouldn't go so far as to give it a 0%, even if I agree with your reasoning. That said, great to see someone giving Hiryu some credit. I doubt he'll ever make it as anything other than an AT but he'd be damn hype!
You have heard of One Punch Man. Now, get ready for: Countless Kicks Lady
Chance: 0%
Street Fighter already has plenty of content in the base game, and received easily the most unique Echo Fighter in all of Ultimate. There is no way we're getting a third Street Fighter character as DLC, especially not with Capcom having a multitude of other popular franchises that could make it in instead, such as Okami, Ace Attorney, featuring Dante from the Devil May Cry series, or Resident Evil.
Want: 5%
I'm no Street Fighter fan. And while I do think that Chun-Li would be kinda nice to have, I'd much rather have characters from the aforementioned other series, especially the first two.
Chance: 15%. While we have 2 street fighter reps and 3 Capcom characters already (and how well Capcom is represented), she would be a great choice given how iconic she is. Of course, there is competition, but her chance is higher the most capcom reps due to her popularity. While she has 2 spirits, it does not hinder her chance to appear. If there is a sequel to this game, her chance will skyrocket.
Want: 95%. She will totally be a fun character to play as, and she can have 2 different final smashes. I can see her fight Samus, Ryo and Ken in a free for all, as well as her fight Terry, amount others. This also means more soundtracks for the franchise. Overall, Chun Li would be a great addition and her legacy continues.
Prediction: Hornet: 5%
Noms: 1 for Concept: Pokeball Pokémon Promotion and 4 for Stage: Bowser's Castle
Chance: 9%
She's a popular character from a popular game. That and she's a female character, which Smash doesn't have a lot. As of now the fighting game reps use both punch and kicks, but Chun Li is heavily focus on kicking her opponents, so there's the uniqueness. The only thing that lowers her chance is that she's a spirit, which may affect her but not really.
Want: 43%
I'm down with more fighting game reps, and a kick based fighter would be cool. I'm ok with seeing Chun Li as a fighter. The problem for me is that I prefer different characters. There are other Capcom characters I want such as Monster Hunter and Leon(If he has a chance). And for fighting game reps I prefer Kyo or Iori(Bring me the jab jab Aoihana. Again, like Leon, if these two have a chance).
Chance: 5%
With the inclusion of Ken, in the base roster, i doubt we'll see her in ultimate. It would be weird to see a 3rd party series get 2 different reps. She's one of the most popular Street fighter chracters, so I think she'll show up eventually, but not in this game.
Want: 30%
She'd be cool and recognizable. Only problem i have is that I think we're good on fighting game reps in DLC now that ARMS is coming.
Chance: 45%
Yadayada unique secondary fighters from pre-existing 3rd Party series. But regardless the fact remains that Smash is the only crossover to have Ryu but not her, let alone Ken. I find it extremely strange that they couldn't even make her an Assist Trophy, or even a Mii Costume. She definitely deserves more than just a Spirit, even if it is enhanced. Not to mention she literally has her own standalone movie, something that no other SF character has (Even if it got poor reviews, which to be honest isn't uncommon among video game movies anyway), and a several mainstream songs like Nicki Minaj named after her, she is a legit pop culture icon, possibly even moreso than Ryu.
Want: 100%
I already included how Smash is literally the only crossover game where Ryu is playable but not her. She's one of the biggest 3rd Party female characters in gaming PERIOD that's not in yet, despite having her series represented, alongside Ms. Pac-Man, so I feel she's more than deserving. Those two and Lara Croft would go a long way in making the 3rd Party characters less of a sausage fest.
Fudge, forgot to vote on Gex day, curse you unreliable notifications.
I'll abstain on Chun Li, but I do want to say some stuff. Because she's an interesting choice, she's after all one of the most iconic women in gaming and the first lady of Fighting games. But she also comes from a third party franchise who already has two characters, and we've never had a third party franchise get a unique second character, not even Sonic who has been in Brawl. Personally I'd rather keep it that way because to me third party franchises are guest I love smash bros because it's primarily a Nintendo crossover. It's not a clear cut case. I do think I'd prefer Chun Li for the most part over other secondary third party characters due to her status in the industry though.
Nominate someone who isn't the star of their own game x5.
Chance: 0.1%. Chun-Li, in any other situation with any other director and any other franchise, would be getting way higher scores than this. But, she is a third party character from a represented series, and I don't think those are happening anytime soon in Smash. The biggest reason why is that once you have the cover guy, that's it. Echoes notwithstanding due to their easier development time, you don't need any more playable characters from that series. From Nintendo's perspective, Chun-Li cannot add anything to the game beyond what Ryu already has in terms of marketing potential; a major factor that could reduce her odds with them. From Sakurai's perspective, Chun-Li has the same problem except on a spiritual level: while she does have a major standing, that's nothing a theoretical future Assist Trophy and/or Mii Costume can't handle. Overall there's just seemingly a bias against second reps from third party franchises and I don't expect that to change with Ultimate. Next time? Might be different, especially as we'll be back in base game.
Want: 20%. While I can't say she would not be interesting or simply shouldn't be here, I would not be terribly pleased. Firstly other Capcom series should get a chance: I'd say about 3 more at least, but probably 5 more off the top of my head (Ace Attorney, Devil May Cry, Okami, Resident Evil and Ghosts 'n Goblins), with several other more waiting? Why bother? She also makes Tails and Eggman more likely and that would be a disaster on my end.
SNES era FF Rep x 5. Hornet has basically nothing going for... them? I don't see why, if the Knight couldn't get high scores, Hornet would do any better. 0.52%.
Gotta go with the grain here. While Chun-Li is one of the most iconic female characters in gaming and would definitely be the next Street Fighter character, we already have two Street Fighter characters and so far we have no precedence for a third party franchise with three characters. Not saying it couldn't happen, but seeing as how Capcom has Phoenix, Dante, Monster Hunter and Amaterasu and Street Fighter already has a whole slew of content already in the game, I just can't imagine Sakurai passing on these characters to add a character from a franchise with plentiful content. But then again, this is Sakurai we are talking about, who is extremely unpredictable, so maybe I'm wrong.
Want: 25%
Chun-Li definitely deserves to be in this game. She is an important female character who also has a unique moveset based on kicks. The big thing is I'm not a Street Fighter fan and aside from her not being within my top 15 most wanted, she isn't even one of my most wanted fighting game characters. In that category, I'm more interested in other characters like Heihachi and Nightmare.
Prediction: Hornet - 9% (Supposedly Hornet is supposed to be the main character of Hollow Knight Silksong. While I think Hollow Knight would get in first, I also think people will underestimate Hornet)
Chance 9%
Chunners is an interesting case as she may be one of the most iconic female characters in gaming as well as fighting game characters period. Heck, I'd even say she's as iconic or even moreso than Ryu. So I really don't see her as too out of the question when it comes to another Street Fighter character. I'd even argue she's first in line or at the very least close to the top when it comes to giving third party franchises a second unique rep. That being said, I think they're gonna want to prioritize a Capcom character who series isn't currently represented in Smash in comparison. Names like Dante, Phoenix Wright and Monster Hunter come to mind. That and each DLC character comes with a music, a stage and a spirit board. Street Fighter's already got a lot of content in Smash so it may be a little harder to work with in comparison. She may have notoriety and legacy going for her, but priority is ultimately gonna be her downfall.
Want: 80%
Heck yeah, I always found Chun-Li more fun and interesting than Ryu. She'd be such a nice inclusion. And hey, if I can't get Min Min into the game, she'd make for a nice replacement.
