Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[DaUsername]

Large Father
Chance: 0.1%
While this would almost definitely be the BioShock character we get, the problem is that we're almost definitely not going to get one. BioShock just has a lot of things going against it. Western, no fan demand, no presence on Nintendo systems until recently, hasn't had a new game in years, etc. Characters have gotten in despite one or two of these things, but not all of them.
Want: 30%
I've played the games and enjoyed them, so I don't really have anything against this guy. BioShock just isn't really high on my want list.

Costume prediction: 60%
Noms: Gen 8 Pokemon x5

 

[Ridrool64]

Big Daddy, ooh na na.

Chance: 10%. Besides competing with other western reps, Big Daddy isn’t even the clear cut choice from Bioshock given the popularity of the protagonists of Infinite. That being said, I have a feeling that we will still likely see another western character, but the series not being all that relevant recently does put him in a bit of a question mark.

Want: 20%. I mean while I didn’t play Bioshock ever, I did play PSAS... and don’t remember how BD played there. Going off the design of the character alone... looks pretty cool, would probably be different from most of what Smash has. But, I’m more privy to other western reps. I am familiar with Bioshock, though from what I can gather it isn’t my cup of tea. I do appreciate it, though.

DLC Music x 5. The Knight has a lot of things going for them but most expect a Costume to be all it gets. 63.36%.

 

[Sari]

I extended the day for about 12 hours and there were no other responses during that time. I hope you guys now know why I prefer 24 hour days for regular ratings like these.

Day over.

Rate Mii Costume: Hollow Knight.

Predict Gex from Gex.

Today is the last day you can use your noms to affect the top 7 before they are locked into the schedule.

Day will probably end around Monday morning.

Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the Hollow Knight mood:

Spoiler: Hollow Knight Music

 

[Perkilator]

The Hollowest Knight of them all I couldn’t come up with anything better

Chance: 60%
As we’ve seen through Sans and Cuphead, indie premium costumes are definitely on the table. However, that doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed, since the mentioned two are pretty much Hollywood megastars compared to Hollow Knight.

Want: Abstain
Yet another game I no absolutely pepper jack cheese about. As usual, I can‘t give a fair judgement.

Gex: 0%

Noms: Sirfetch’d x5

 

[3DSNinja]

God please no.
chance:30%: I see it as likely as him being a fighter. He has popularity,recency, and a sequel. However,considering how close Team Cherry is to Nintendo, I can see him being a full fledged fighter.
want:0%: Please no. He could be such a unique character with so many different moveset you could make, plus one of the best let's ever and potential for unique spirits and a unique stage, making him a mini costume is an insult to the character IMO. (Also we deserve a fully playable indie)
Nominations: Minato Arisato x5

 

[NintenRob]

Abstain

Nominate someone who is not the star of their own game x5

 

[Ninjaed]

Hollow Knight mii costume

Chance: 80%
I was honestly not expecting Cuphead to get such a quality mii costume. Meanwhile, Hollow Knight or rather Team Cherry seem to be chummy with Nintendo, the game has met critical acclaim on the Switch (minus critics judging the game to be too difficult bordering unfair), popular with players, has demand... Main reason why I wouldn't see a fighter is because "indie rep". To me, Sans as a mii costume showed just how requested and well-known he was. He sets the bar for indie reps. So if he didn't make it in, I don't see Hollow Knight getting a fighter, ergo a mii costume is that much more likely.

Want: 30%
My personal want is actually 0% but same goes for almost every mii costume. I just don't play my miis with those mii costumes. I've never liked recreating a character by making a pale copy of it. Still, the feeling does matter quite a lot. Even I was excited to see Sans getting recognition from one of Nintendo's biggest titles. So to see Hollow Knight getting that nod would make me quite happy for all those who request it, as well as its devs who'd undoubtedly be so proud that not boasting would be much harder than their challenging game.

Predictions: Gex - 4%

Nominations: Junkuma & Monoshima x5

 

[Cadillac]

Knight Costume

Chance: 56%
Pretty likely. Hollow Knight is one of the successful indies, and quite popular too. Given how Nintendo gave Team Cherry some spotlight during E3 2018 and Silksong is now on the 2020 roadmap, they would like to make money by putting him as a costume. He might be a fighter, but I'm not really sure. For a fighter they might put Hornet instead of Knight since she's the protagonist of Silksong.

Want: 39%
I'll take it... only if Hornet joins as a fighter. I don't like using Mii fighters. Sure, with the costume the Mii would look like the Knight himself, but what else? No matter how similar they look, it's a boring Mii fighter. That's the fact, and nothing can change that. The 'Deluxe Mii Costume' just seems like an excuse to me. Just some ways to make more money.

Gex: 3.4%

Noms: Hornet(Hollow Knight) x10

 

[Jomosensual]

Hollow Knight Mii Costume

Chance 95 - The highest rating I've ever given out, but I think there's a really good reason for this. Nintendo seemingly loves Team Cherry and for good reason. Hollow Knight was one of the best selling games on the Eshop for a long time and the Silksong sequel is among one of their top advertised releases for the year. It completely makes sense for the series to get some sort of representation in Smash. The original HK game was also amazing and since drawn a bit of fan support to get that to happen. Not at the level of Sans, but probably equal to what Cuphead at. Speaking of Sans and Cuphead, those two also follow a bit of a theme so far, which is popular indie characters from games released after the base roster was already decided. While I don't know if HK ever hit the peaks those two did, what it could lack there it easily makes up for with it's popularity with Nintendo. Sadly, since HK is still an indie game I don't see a character happening here, which makes me sad because I would like that a lot, but if no indie reps are getting in I'll take this too plus a song. My personal pick is City of Tears, Crystal Peak, or the final boss fight(IDK what that was called).

Want 75 - Holding back my want score is my desire to see a playable Knight or Hornet. I loved Hollow Knight to death to the point where I'm getting nostalgic for it and I only stopped playing a few months ago(Can't say I officially beat it since the damn Radiance fight it so hard). The artwork, the music, the gameplay, the lore, it just all clicked for me so well. I really want this series to be in Smash. Like I said, I would rather get a playable character but they're not exactly hiding the fact that they aren't making indie characters playable so if this is what it has to be then so be it. I'll take it over nothing. Also, Hornet and/or Hollow Knight would just be really fun characters to play as and while a Mii Costume isn't the worst thing possible it would be a slight bummer to miss out on that.

Predictions:
Gex - 3%

Noms:
Guardian(Destiny) x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Hollow Knight Mii Costume

Chance: 80% - A few months ago I would've given this a much lower rating, but the Cuphead costume ended up being the real game changer. With the trend that indies close to Nintendo are getting deluxe costume recognition, Hollow Knight just seems like the next in line. With Silksong on the 2020 lineup and the shoutout at E3 2018, Team Cherry has definitely left its' mark. Combine that with the incredible eShop sales and you've got a fantastic character that would definitely be seen as a big money maker by Nintendo.

Want: 50% - I have little experience with Hollow Knight but I think it definitely has earned its' place in the game. Furthermore, it'd reduce competition for Quote, who is my Indie rep of choice.


Nominations:
Bubsy x5

Predictions:
Gex - 3.56%

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Honestly, I wouldn't be bothered by these 24 hour days that much if it weren't for many people abstaning on both ratings everytime the character was from a game they didn't play.
Abstaining on want I can understand, but would it really be that hard in most cases to put your feeling of likelihood in a percentage?

Literally a hollow knight
Chance: 60%
Hollow Knight certainly has become one of the most notable indie titles in recent years. Reaching 2.8 milion copies sold last year with high critical acclaim, has a deticated following and the next instalment being highly anticipated makes it clear this wasn't some flavor of the month experience. And with Nintendo themselves seemingly being fanboys of both the game and Team Cherry it would make me suprised if Nintendo wouldn't ask for it to make some kind of appearance in Smash. To be fair it may not have left an as big of a mark as Undertale or Cuphead but I could still easily see the Knight being next in line when it comes to these costumes.

Want: 20%
I originally began nomming this after the Sans costume made me lose hope in the Knight getting in as a fighter and would've appreciated any kind of representation, but as time went on, my hopes for the Knight as playable started to rise again, admittedly caused by the "deconfirmation" of many candidates for Fighter 5. Byleth and the Cuphead costume should've brought these hopes down again, yet this time I'm remaining more optimistic. I'll ackowledge the Mii Costume still being the way likelier outcome, but my desires for playable Knight have really overwritten my excitement for the costume. I'd still be happy but I'd still be wishing to be in the better timeline.

Regardless, I'm just hoping Grimm's battle theme makes it in anyhow.

Gex: 4.74%
Alucard x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

Mii Costume for "Dark Souls" Knight

Chance: 60%

Seeing as how popular Sans and Cuphead were and they only got a premium Mii costume, I see Hollow Knight getting the same treatment. Hollow Knight is one of the most popular indie games on the Switch, with critical acclaim and its high sales being very consistent for a long time. With Silksong coming soon, Hollow Knight being requested, and Team Cherry having a good relationship with Nintendo, this just makes sense. On the flip side, I do see Hollow Knight being one of the couple possible indie characters to become a playable character and in that regard, he has competition with Shantae, Quote and Reimu. Yeah in my opinion I think a premium Mii costume is more likely for him.

Want: Abstain

I don't know enough about the character himself to give a fair rating. Plus its usually tough for me to rate these Mii costumes and determine if I'm truly ok with them being a Mii costume or if I want them more to be a playable character.

Prediction: Gex - 3.14%

Noms: Contra rep x5

 

[Deleted member]

Hollow Knight Mii Costume

Chance: 60%

Like Undertale and Cuphead, Hollow Knight is a critically acclaimed Indie title that came out around the same timeframe of those 2 games (in fact it was released on the same year as Cuphead). It's got the recency since it's only been about 3 years since the game released and Silksong is still in development, so you could easily see how the Knight could be next in line for a special Mii Costume by the time the ARMS fighter releases. I guess the only thing that would prevent this from happening is competition among a bunch of other Indie titles vying for a special Mii Costume.

Want: 65%

I gotta get around to playing more of Hollow Knight now that I own it, but the Knight as a Mii Costume would be another good addition to Ultimate. He's got the head and body to work out a Mii Costume, and if Nintendo didn't choose him to be in Vol 2, I can't see why you wouldn't want to include the Knight as a Mii Costume if you got the chance to.
----------------------------
Predictions:

Gex - 4.01%
----------------------------
Noms:

Devolver Digital Rep x4
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x1

 

[BowserKing]

Hollow Knight Mii Costume

Chance: 15%. A costume for Hollow Knight would be possible, given the Mii Costumes we have gotten so far. However, there re possibilities of Hollow Knight being playable, but anyways, Mii costumes have less competition then the Fighters, since they'd are customizable and are cheaper to get.

Want: 50%. While I'd prefer it if Hollow Knight where a playable fighter, the Mii Costume would be a fun one as well. Of course the move set would be customized for your liking, but the Mii costume would be a fun one. That is all I'm going to say about this.

Prediction: Gex (10%)

Noms: 3 for Falinks and 2: for Boss: Ender Dragon

 

[warpenguin55]

Hollow Knight Mii Costume
Chance: 85%
This one makes a ton of sense to me. Hollow Knight sold extremely well on the Switch E-Shop and he has some decent demand. Super Mii Costumes seem to be the limit for Indie characters. I'd be surprised if Hollow Knight didn't get anything.


Want: 25%
I think Hollow Knight being a Super Mii Costume would be cool. I would much rather have him be a playable fighter but I'll take what I can get.


Predict: Gex 12%

Noms: Baldi x5

 

[Ridrool64]

Good Night for the Knight

Chance: 75%. As I really don't see the Knight making it in simply due to how recent Hollow Knight is, I think this is our best bet for the little bug-like thing. It's not like it didn't have positives before; Team Cherry is pretty close to Nintendo, they were highlighted for E3 2018, and Silksong is coming up for promotional stuff. But I definitely feel like a Mii Swordfighter costume is what we're gonna get.

Want: 50%. Mii Gunner is hogging all the premium costumes. Spread some love for the other two. Sure, it'd be a massive waste of abilities, but tell that to basically any character who got Mii'd. Yu Narukami, Slime, Goemon, Nakoruru, Cuphead... so, I don't think there's anything necessarily wrong with wasting potential on a Mii Costume. And this is just greedy of me, so karma is gonna punch me in the face come Tuesday, but that means more room for characters I'd prefer as fighters.

DLC Music x 5. Gex... 3.64%. I think Gex speaks for himself.

 

[Calamitas]

Gonna double abstain. I don't really have much of an opinion or view on Hollow Knight.

Predicting Gex to get 1.11%.

Nominating Concept: A new Zelda character x5.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I don't know anything about Hollow Knight.

Nominations: [Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

HKMC

Chance: 100%
I wasn't going to go out on a limb and give this rating, but then I asked myself "Do I think we'll get at least one more premium Mii Costume?". The answer was yes. Then I asked myself if there was just one more of those Mii Costumes, who would it be? And the answer was Hollow Knight. I don't think Hollow Knight has any shot of getting in as a fighter, so I guess that settles it.

Want: abstain
I don't want Hollow Knight in Smash, but I'm not about to give a high want score just for the disconfirmation. If fans would be okay with just a Mii Costume, then I hope they get it. If they'd be pissed off by it and would rather he didn't get it, then I'm behind that.

Noms: Chun-Li x5
Gex prediction: 11.01%

 

[GoodGrief741]

As Sari said, today's the last day your nominations can affect the top seven. It's a close race, so there's a lot that could change come tomorrow. Choose wisely.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Big Daddy pre-Mii Costume: Hollow Knight

Chun-Li x120
Gnar (League of Legends) x115
Hornet (Hollow Knight) x110
Segata Sanshiro x105
Falinks x101
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x99
Bubsy x95

100 - 51

Alucard (Castlevania) x90
Sirfetch'd x90
Concept: New Zelda character x83
Decidueye x80
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Meowth x74
Concept: Darksiders rep x70
Concept: A character who isn't the star of their own game x70
Concept: Contra rep x70
Minato Arisato x70
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone) x65
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x65
[Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x65
Earthworm Jim x55
Junko & Monokuma x55

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Concept: DLC music packs x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Axel Stone x45
Concept: Level-5 rep x40
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
Terra Branford x35
Boss: Ender Dragon x35
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x32
[Rerate] Kratos x30
Concept: Nippon Ichi rep x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25

Under 25

Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x21
Concept: Returning stages x21
Ahri (League of Legends) x20
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x16
Zeraora x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
Guardian (Destiny) x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gooigi x10
[Rerate] Steve x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Concept: No third parties in this Pass x10
Baldi (Baldi's Basics) x10
Black Shadow x8
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Magolor x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
[Rerate] Toxtricity x5
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x5
Stage: Bowser's Castle x3
3 Mage Sisters x2
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x1

Hornet passes Segata Sanshiro and is now in third place. Falinks crosses 100 noms. Alucard turns out to be no match for Bubsy, and so he falls out of the top seven while the bobcat stays.

Earthworm Jim and Junko & Monokuma all have over 50 noms.

Lu Bu is your sole newcomer for today, with a single nomination to his name.

 

[amageish]

Hollow Knight Mii Costume

Chance: Abstain. Like with Quote, I feel like I need more info about how Deluxe Mii Costumes will be handled going forward to make a confident guess like this. If we get 6 (or more) and they're all from trendy indie games like Sans and Cuphead were, then I'd say Hollow Knight is basically a 100% (assuming he isn't made playable, of course). If we get less then 6 or if they become more about giving oft-requested-but-not-currently-playable characters representation (a la the K Rool costume and such in Sm4sh), then I feel Hollow Knight's odds drop significantly. It'll be interesting to see what happens.

Want: Abstain. I'm not huge into Metroidvanias, but he looks cool.

Noms: Level-5 Rep x 10! Woo!

Predictions: Gex? 5%.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Calcs

Mii Costume: Quote
36.79% Chance - 47.54% Want
Winner of predictions was amageish with 39.40%. I think this was their first time doing predictions, too, so congrats!
Quote is the first Mii Costume we've rated, so obviously he's simultaneously got the highest and lowest scores in that category, but that's bound to change given today's rating - I wonder who'll get the higher scores? As far as concepts go, however, it's a very middle-of-the-road score, people are torn depending on how likely they think Quote's shot is at playability.

Paper Mario
21.64% Chance - 61.14% Want
Last time we rated him he got 8.31% chance and 50.16% want. This was a few days after Joker's reveal and Reggie's comments about characters "new to Smash" and "that you wouldn't expect to be in Smash", so many saw it as a killing blow for a Spirit from a represented franchise. However I find the rise in want impressive, especially considering how many people stated that his popularity had waned in favor of Waluigi and Geno (his current want score is about 1% higher than Waluigi's and 1% lower than Geno's).
Winner of predictions was Cadillac with 20.30%

Reporter & Wrestler
3.40% Chance - 36.69% Want
Winner of predictions was Wunderwaft with 3.60%

Ryo Hazuki
3.59% Chance - 28.27% Want
Winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi with 3.38%
I should probably mention that Ryo got an 85% and a 100% in want (I was the 85), so his want score would be much lower if it weren't for those two outlying scores.

Big Daddy
7.16% Chance - 36.92%
Winner of predictions was DrifloonEmpire with 5.72%

Ye with extra noms

amageish 5
Artix 15
Awakining 5
Cadillac 5
DanganZilla5 15
DaUsername 57
Delzethin 5
DrifloonEmpire 5
GoodGrief741 43
Icedragonadam 5
NintenRob 110
Nemuresu 10
Perkilator 5
Ridrool64 5
Ramen Tengoku 5
Troykv 15
waddledeeonredyoshi 5
warpenguin55 15
Wunderwaft 15

 

[3DSNinja]

hey NintenRob , can you help me get Minato up there with ye extra noms?

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Hollow Knight Mii Costume:

Chance: 60% - It's a bit difficult to say what will happen in the future with these deluxe Mii Costumes as there aren't enough of them to really draw any sort of pattern, but I'd guess there's at least one or two left down the pipeline, and given Team Cherry's close relationship with Nintendo and that Silksong is scheduled for sometime later this year, it does make a lot of sense.

Want: 80% - Of course I'd much rather see The Knight or Hornet as fully fledged characters, but I also know that's quite a long shot. I just want any sort of Hollow Knight content in the game, so even if it just turns out to be a Mii Costume, I'll be happy, especially if it gets the Cuphead treatment and we get both a song and a few Spirits along with it.

 

[Cadillac]

Spoiler: Calcs

Mii Costume: Quote
36.79% Chance - 47.54% Want
Winner of predictions was amageish with 39.40%. I think this was their first time doing predictions, too, so congrats!
Quote is the first Mii Costume we've rated, so obviously he's simultaneously got the highest and lowest scores in that category, but that's bound to change given today's rating - I wonder who'll get the higher scores? As far as concepts go, however, it's a very middle-of-the-road score, people are torn depending on how likely they think Quote's shot is at playability.

Paper Mario
21.64% Chance - 61.14% Want
Last time we rated him he got 8.31% chance and 50.16% want. This was a few days after Joker's reveal and Reggie's comments about characters "new to Smash" and "that you wouldn't expect to be in Smash", so many saw it as a killing blow for a Spirit from a represented franchise. However I find the rise in want impressive, especially considering how many people stated that his popularity had waned in favor of Waluigi and Geno (his current want score is about 1% higher than Waluigi's and 1% lower than Geno's).
Winner of predictions was Cadillac with 20.30%

Reporter & Wrestler
3.40% Chance - 36.69% Want
Winner of predictions was Wunderwaft with 3.60%

Ryo Hazuki
3.59% Chance - 28.27% Want
Winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi with 3.38%
I should probably mention that Ryo got an 85% and a 100% in want (I was the 85), so his want score would be much lower if it weren't for those two outlying scores.

Big Daddy
7.16% Chance - 36.92%
Winner of predictions was DrifloonEmpire with 5.72%

Ye with extra noms

amageish 5
Artix 15
Awakining 5
Cadillac 5
DanganZilla5 15
DaUsername 57
Delzethin 5
DrifloonEmpire 5
GoodGrief741 43
Icedragonadam 5
NintenRob 110
Nemuresu 10
Perkilator 5
Ridrool64 5
Ramen Tengoku 5
Troykv 15
waddledeeonredyoshi 5
warpenguin55 15
Wunderwaft 15

Can I use it now?

 

[GoodGrief741]

Can I use it now?

Sure! But if it's not a bother, please edit them into your original post.

 

[Sari]

Hollow Knight Mii Costume

Chance: 50%
He's a really popular indie that Nintendo seems to have been pushing. With Sans and Cuphead now Mii Costumes, HK is looking to be the next in line.

Want: Abstain
No connection to Hollow Knight so I won't comment.

Gex chance prediction: 2.95%

Nominations:
Axel Stone x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Hollow Knight Mii Costume

Chance - 25% - Mii costumes are hard to predict, as the only ones we have have been from relatively big names that don't have content in the game yet. Hollow Knight meets those requirements, but anything else is up in the air. The requirements are a bit harder to place so I don't feel like I can give them too high of a score, but I do feel like they are a frontrunner.

Want - 65% - I basically view a Mii Costume as a consolation prize for something that would otherwise get nothing. While I would prefer the Knight playable, I would much rather have some content rather than nothing.

Nominations

Nippon Ichi representative X5

 

[DaUsername]

Honestly, I wouldn't be bothered by these 24 hour days that much if it weren't for many people abstaning on both ratings everytime the character was from a game they didn't play.
Abstaining on want I can understand, but would it really be that hard in most cases to put your feeling of likelihood in a percentage?

Maybe some people just don't care enough about a character to write 2+ sentences.

Like me, for example. I'm doing that.
Gex prediction: 3%
Noms: Gen 8 Pokémon x5

 

[Garteam]

Bug Boi (Halloween Edition)

Chance: 85% - The Indie ceiling seems to be a real thing for Smash characters, with 5 indie characters with varying degrees of popularity being all being added in nonplayable roles. So, I don't see the Knight getting in that way. However, Sans and Cuphead's costumes were extremely well-received, so I can't imagine them not doing more in Wave 2. Nintendo has been pretty buddy-buddy with Team Cherry recently and Hollow Knight has done very well on the Switch, so it seems like him getting the Mii Costume treatment some time down the line is inevitable.

Want: 60% - Definitely could live without it, but It'd still be cool to get. Hollow Knight never really stuck with me, it was fun in the moment but not something I'd immediately want to come back to. However, I have a good friend who's most wanted the Knight, so it would be nice to see the Knight get in for that reason alone.

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Gex from the Gex series.

Predict Chun-Li from the Street Fighter series.

Day will probably end sometime after Tuesday afternoon.

Also last call to answer the poll on how this thread should handle ARMS content. See this post for more info.

Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the Gex mood:

Spoiler: Gex Music

 

[Perkilator]

Gex: Enter the Annoyance

Chance: 0%
Eidos is owned by Square now. We’d be lucky to even get Lara Croft over him, as far as Eidos reps go.

Want: -80%
Because the character who just wouldn’t shut up just has to bring his verbosity into Smash before Bubsy gets in, but I’d want to drill their faces either way

Oh, and as far as Square Enix-related characters go, I mainly want Sora more.


Chun-Li: 10%

Noms: Sirfetch’d x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Gex

Chance 0 - An SE rep. That's the biggest issue here. There's just tons and tons and tons of other reps ahead of him right now in both fan demand, popularity, and likely in Nintendo interest. We're not getting crap ton of SE reps in the DLC either, so the only way he's getting in is if Nintendo passes up on the likes of Geno, Lara,Sora, etc for him. Yeah, this isnt likely.

Abstain on want since I dont know Gex very well

Predictions
Chun Li - 10%(Can't believe this is the first I'm going to rate her)

Noms
Guardian x5

 

[Garteam]

Here's a little Gex quote to set the mood:

"Keanu Reeves ruined my movie".

Chance: 0.01% - Not having any major requests to join the roster, a strong Japanese presence, or a game in the past 20 years would hurt any Smash character. Factor in that he's fighting with Sora, Geno, Lara Croft, and 2B to be the third Square Enix character, Gex is hopeless beyond a borderline miracle.

Want: 15% - I don't actually get the massive hate Gex gets. Yes, he won't shut up with his outdated pop culture references, but that's sort of the fun of the character. Plus, his games were serviceable enough as far as platformers go, and the "trapped in the tv" theme led to some really cool level ideas (such as WWE world, Gangster World, and Anime world). I could actually see Gex working in 2020, provided they played him right. A platformer starring a washed-up star that commentates on media's conflicting desire to innovate yet remain in the past? Could be neat.

That being said, I'd much rather see that happen then Gex joining Smash.

Predictions
Chun Li - 9.2% (Some people will give her a relatively high number for being the First Lady of Fighting Games, but her overall score is going to get dragged down by her competition with Capcom's other offerings)

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

When in doubt, lie with Gex
Double zeroes. Gex is just one of many forgotten cartoony platform mascots and hasn't seen a new game, or even a port, in two decades. He's occasionally brought up by memers and people who ironically or unironically fans of the games. Voices that likely won't reach Square Enix or Nintendo since the games don't seem to be localised. Not to forget all the competition from other, way more succesful Square owned IPs he'd have to go up against.

Personally, I've never played his games nor know much about them so I can't really judge them. But I know where my priorities lie and I'd prefer Nintendo not to give one of the last five remaining roster spots to Gex of all people.

Chun Li: 7.34%
Alucard x10

 

[3DSNinja]

Our Lord and Savior
Chance:0%: Yeah he isn't happening. Between Geno, Sepiroth, Crono, Neku, Lara, 2B, and Sora, he has way too much competition to even stand a chance.
Want:100%: Gex is hilarious. Oh and also a spy moveset could be a lot of fun so yeah I'd e down for that.
nominations: Minato Arisato x5

 

[Proceleon]

Gex
Chance: 47%
While there are more recognisable characters in Square's catalog, Gex does have aesthetic on his side. He'd certainly fit in with the other platforming mascots and has cult status so at least a few people are going to know him. His stage ideas are relatively lacking as is his moveset, but I wouldn't say a moveset for him is impossible, it would just be very vanilla, much like Banjo. Really his biggest obstacle is Crystal Dynamic's other child, Lara Croft, since Geno's a Spirit and most of Square's other characters have various issues that hold them back.

Want: 30%
Having played Gex, I can say in confidence that he's an entertaining character. I'd certainly say I'd want him over the other common Square choices.

 

[amageish]

Gex

Chance: 1%. As far as I can tell, none of his games came out in Japan. That's not a good sign. He'd be representing a genre, 3D platformers, that has a lot of competition. That's not a good sign. He'd be representing a company, Square Enix/Crystal Dynamic, that has a lot of competition. Also not a good sign... I just generally don't see why he'd be picked, unless there is secretly a Gex remake in the mix and Sakurai has been quietly longing for a James-Bond-esque character since Melee. That's, uh, a lot of obstacles in his way.

Want: Abstain. My knowledge of Gex is limited at best, but I imagine his release would result in a lot of memes. That said, a lot of characters would result in memes. I think I'd rather other meme-worthy characters...

Noms: Level-5 Rep x5
Chun-Li: 17%

 

[chocolatejr9]

Quick question, 3DSNinja , isn't the guy you're nominating the Persona 3 Protagonist? Because I thought he already got a DLC Mii costume.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Gex
Chance: 47%
While there are more recognisable characters in Square's catalog, Gex does have aesthetic on his side. He'd certainly fit in with the other platforming mascots

Lol what? First of, you do know that platform mascots make up only a fraction of the roster, right? The aesthetic of the Smash cast has always been quite varied. This is a game where Pacman, Ridley, Snake and Marth can all be on screen at once, despite their desings clashing. "Fitting in with the aesthetic of other characters" has never been a requirement so it isn't a pluspoint either and also not a problem less cartoony Square characters would have to face.
Also you say Gex would fit in next to the likes of Mario, Sonic, Megaman, etc for their aesthetic, to me however, he'd clash severely with them cause of how laughably less legendary, popular, relevant and iconic Gex is compared to them.

and has cult status so at least a few people are going to know him.

And Cult status is definitely not enough. They aren't going to actively choose someone who only a few people know about.
God Hand has a cult following too. Is the protag from that game getting in over Dante/Wright? Not in my wildest dreams!

Really his biggest obstacle is Crystal Dynamic's other child, Lara Croft, since Geno's a Spirit and most of Square's other characters have various issues that hold them back.

As if Gex doesn't?! I'm not even big on Square but in what world can Gex be considered likelier than Crono, Neku, 2B, goddang Bub&Bob? Even Geno has way more going for him than Gex ever has, despite how little I care for him.

Edit: Posted this before learning the Gex series was a million seller but I still think my points stand anyway