Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Royalty1702]

Dante's been disconfirmed.

By who?

 

[Ornl]

Banada Dee - Chance : 0% - Want : abstain
No reason to appear in DLC. It would serve the DLCs, because each player would ask too: "And Waluigi?", "And Impa?", "And Dixie?", etc.

Ace Attorney - Chance : 5% - Want : abstain
I think Phoenix Wright would be legitimate in Smash, but not as a DLC. In my opinion, he belongs to the category of the big forgotten characters close to Nintendo, like Jibanyan, Professor Layton, Mametchi, Farmer from Harvest Moon and especially Momotaro from Momotaro Dentetsu. Momotaro Dentetsu belongs to Nintendo as a 1st party since 2015, but Momotetsu is totally absent, even in Spirit. This is what makes me think there are licenses are completely sidelined, and I don't think that Ace Attorney will be the one that would be different.

Doomguy - Chance : 5% - Want : abstain
I know the good points. But Doomguy has several handicaps: FPS are better on PC, possible gameplay controversy, Western nationality, not at the top of expectations in Japan, maximum age limit. Each point can be canceled, but it's the set of handicaps that is important ; it's the accumulation that makes sense.

Nomination : Jin Kazama x5

 

[Icedragonadam]

Bandana Dee

Chance: 0.01%

-Is a spirit
-1st party characters are unlikely to be in the pass.

Want: 20%

-He's the kind of character that would fit better on the base roster. Sorry about that Dee

Phoenix Wright

Chance: 25%

-He's definitely a popular darkhorse pick.
-Unfortunately Ace Attourney sells a lot less than other potential Capcom candidates especially compared to Resident Evil who I think is one of the final two reps left.

Want: 50%

He'd be interesting with is objections.
-But I'd rather have a Resident Evil character instead.

DOOM Slayer

Chance: 15%

-Yes he has been rumored and such but they're just rumors(personally I think that DOOM announcement is probably just that long awaited DOOM 64 port).
-Problem is though is that he's highly unpopular in Japan. He's Mortal Kombat levels of unpopular there since I think any western character that gets in needs to be notable in Japan as well(like Banjo).

Want: 20%

-Ehh I don't really want him Smash.
-Mainly because he's attached Bethesda, who's been doing some scummy things lately.

Prediction:

Steve: 0.31%
Leon: 41.55%
Jill: 25.55%

Nominate Velvet Crowe x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

By who?

Ya know, you could have googled it but here...

 

[FancySmash]

Bandana Dawdle Dee

Chance: 5%
Even then, I feel I'm being generous. Sadly, his chances are nowhere near what they used to be. I think that if there's a second fighter pass that upgrades characters that are currently spirits, Bandana Dee is a front runner, but that's a huge if at the moment. The pass is essentially third party only. So highly wanted first parties like Bandana Dee, Dixie, and others are looking to take a pass again.

Want: 100%
Hot dang do I want this character though. He's at the top of my wants in terms of characters, and if I ever get him, I'll essentially be complete for Smash. I'll support other characters of course, but this is the one where I'll be satisfied no matter what if he gets in. I love the Kirby series, and I've been hating the constant pandering to classic Kirby.

Lawyer Ho-Oh

Chance: 35%
I could honestly see Pheonix Wright being a possibility. Not sure how he'd fight, considering even Marvel vs. Capcom treated him as a joke, but that just doesn't seem fitting for a third party character. Despite moveset issues, Wright has been long standing with Nintendo, and depending on whether or not you believe Costume Theory, Wright has the Capcom advantage.

Want: 70%
I have no incredibly strong attachment to Pheonix Wright, but I certainly wouldn't be opposed. I am concerned about how they'd incorporate him into the game, considering Ace Attorney doesn't have a lot to pull from for a moveset, but I suppose the Smash crew can figure out something. He's also got a strong Nintendo vibe, so that's good enough for me.

Doom and Gloom

Chance: 20%
I honestly don't see this quite as likely as Ace Attorney representation. Still a contender, but there are some things holding 'em back. While it would be representing the shooter franchise, I think Splatoon does that just fine with the Inklings. Doom is also quite heavy in subject matter. I've seen many say before that unlike Bayonetta, Snake, and Joker, toning down Doom Guy takes away from the identity of the character. However, I can't really say myself because...

Want: 40%
I have no real connection to the character. The heavy subject matter of Doom as a series also is something I find a bit concerning. Otherwise, I'm neutral on the subject. I have no real desire to see it in Smash, but at the same time, if it happens, I won't see it as the end of the world.

Predictions:
Steve: 5.07%
Leon: 19.9%
Jill: 17.78%

Nominations:
Kamek x3
Captain Rainbow x2

 

[Mogisthelioma]

Dee of Justice:
Chance: Abysmally low. I stand by Spirits Deconfirming. And it seems like the Kirby series holds a low priority when it comes to new content anyway.
Want: 100%. My most wanted newcomer since Brawl.

Phoenix Wright:
Chance: 50%. It's not unreasonable for Capcom to get a fourth rep. Plus he would be a super out-of-left-field newcomer.
Want: 35%. While I have no attachment to the series I'll admit he would seem fun to play as.

Doomslayer:
Chance: 60%. Keeping recent....developments in mind, it seems like Doomslayer has a decent shot of making it in.
Want: 75%. I will be genuinely excited if Doomslayer makes it in. While I've never played the game he would still be awesome. Plus he would eliminate any possible argument against Master Chief's inclusion.

 

[culumon]

Bandana Dee

Chance: 10%
Yeah, 3/5 of the fighters' pass has been third parties. Is there a chance that they've just frontloaded the pass and the last two picks will be first/second party? Sure! A very, very, very, very slim chance. Also, Sakurai's reluctance to use Kirby content outside of his four games is... very apparent at this point. I don't see it happening this game.

Want: 95%
GIVE ME MY BOY

Phoenix Wright:
Chance: 40%
Capcom have demonstrated themselves as maybe the most cooperative third party with regards to character representation, with their only major competition being Konami. As such, I would very much wager they're getting a character in the fighters' pass, especially if Mii Costume theory holds true and they're looking to sell those again. I... very much doubt Dante was under much consideration when the pass came to fruition, his popularity only really skyrocketed when that convincing-but-fake 4Chan "leak" that named him happened. And that's absolutely not to disparage those who do legitimately want him as wanting him on insincere grounds - I can attest first hand that evidence in favour of a characters' likelihood is going to make you genuinely want what you used to perceive as a wildcard pick more. I'd always been a casual Skull Kid wanter, but it wasn't until the Moon assist trophy combined with the Ramblin' Evil Mushroom made me think "oh wow maybe he's in?" and move to actively supporting him (for the record I never ascribed to chair theory please understand). As for Monster Hunter... why wouldn't they be in the base game alongside Rathalos? Part of the joy of a new third party character is seeing all the other content they'd bring with them. It's not just "____'s in Smash!" it's "Super Smash Bros. x ______", as the newcomer trailers have been (rightfully) pushing as of late. And "Super Smash Bros. x Monster Hunter" is already a thing. Rathalos may be a titan of gaming, but the character of "Monster Hunter" absolutely isn't, so it would seem like wasted efforts to negotiate for them over Capcom's many other characters, IMO.

So, at this stage, I think Phoenix's only major competition when it comes to a Capcom pick will be Resident Evil. On the one hand, if you're looking at third party inclusions for promotional purposes, Resident Evil absolutely does not need that. It's Capcom's biggest series by a wide margin. On the other hand, if you're looking at Smash through the "it's gaming's titans brought together under one roof!", which Sakurai has stated is one of his biggest creative motivators, then yeah, of course including the perennial horror game series is gonna appeal. Phoenix on the other hand would make more sense for promotional reasons what with his series' diminished success in the rest, he boasts a larger presence on Nintendo systems (I'd very much make the case that he's an honourary Nintendo character, alongside the likes of Mega Man, Simon, Bayonetta and Banjo-Kazooie), and is the face of what is arguably the perennial visual novel series. So again, he appeals from the "gaming's titans under one roof" angle, but less so than Resident Evil. With the other points in his favour? I'd say it's 40% to him, 40% to a Resi character, and 10% to another Capcom rep (or no Capcom rep at all!).

Want: 100%
Ace Attorney is in strong contention for my favourite video game series of all time. Phoenix Wright is my most wanted. Easy.

Doomguy

Chance: 40%
Bethesda have been in talks with Nintendo about Smash, and Doomguy's by far the most likely character under their roof to make it in. The series is an undisputed titan of gaming, Sakurai's spoken of his fondness of it multiple times, and Doom's SNES port being a huge success gives it the "it's a part of Nintendo's history!" factor. The main issue is... well, if those aforementioned talks ever amounted to anything. We have no way of knowing at this point.

Want: 40%
The only game in the series I've played is Doom 2016. Which I like a lot! And Doom itself is unquestionably one of the titans of the genre, so it's definitely earned a spot in Smash. I certainly wouldn't dislike his inclusion by any means. But... the hurdle a lot of first person characters have to jump for me is my lack of attachment to them. When I think of "the main character of Doom" I think of two detached arms floating in front of the camera the whole way through. And those arms have a lot of personality thanks to the game's stellar animation work, but to me... Doomguy's just the guy on the box. My attachment to Doom 2016 and my attachment to him as a character feel completely disparate in my mind. So, yeah. I know I'd probably get a lot more excited about the prospect actually watching his reveal trailer and seeing him brought to life, but as it stands, I can't muster much excitement for the guy.

 

[Troykv]

Bandana Waddle Dee:

Chance 20%

Bandana Boi is very dependent in the possibility of additional DLCs outside the Fighter Pass, because at least the fighter pass seems to be completely Third Party focused. But if that ends up happening, Bandana Waddle Dee will become a front runner (again) in the speculation, specially because their fanbase (and potentially overall demand) it's one of the biggest for First Party characters, I think only surpassed for Waluigi, which I'm even sure if it's actually unironical

Want: 80%

Bandana Boi is one of the characters of my third? (I think) favorite series from Nintendo and from Media in general; so I appreciate when characters I had growth to really like appears in Smash :3

___

Phoenix Wright:

Chance: 40%

Capcom character it's a very likely idea for several reasons, some theories (Custom Theory) and for simply the fact Capcom has several series that are liked and supported in Smash Speculation; Phoenix Wright it's one of them, and it's probably one of the most wanted despite coming from a niche franchise; which is quite amazing.

Want: 60%

Not a lot of familiarity with the series, but I really like the charisma it has.

Doom Guy:

Chance and Want: Abstain

I prefer to don't talk about Doom Guy because I'm not completely sure how describe his chances with so many weird things around him xDU.

___

Predictions:

Steve: 14.5%
Jill: 33.5%
Leon: 41.4%

Nominations:

Micaiah (Fire Emblem) x5

 

[3BitSaurus]

Bandana Waddle Dee

Chance: 0%
As much as I'd like to think otherwise, I don't believe there will be first party characters in the Fighters Pass. Even if there were, BWD is a Spirit - one that evolves from another, no less. So I don't think Nintendo would even consider him right now.

Want: 60%
He'd probably be one of my most wanted first parties for a next Smash game. The Kirby series doesn't get anyone since Brawl, plus he's a spear user, which is something we don't have yet. I just can't see him happening right now.

Phoenix Wright

Chance: 70%
The only reason his chances aren't higher is because we aren't really guaranteed to get another Capcom character. If we do, however, Phoenix is among the top candidates. With Monster Hunter having base game content and Dante deconfirmed, the only thing in his way would be a Resident Evil character. Which is strong competition, sure, but one can't deny that lawyer boy's chances are higher than ever now.

Want: 100%
Arguably my most wanted third party right now, with the others being either confirmed or deconfirmed. Phoenix would make me really happy - both for what I think of his games and as a Marvel 3 player. Being a non-fighter, I think there is potential for a really wacky and different playstyle.

Doomguy

Chance: 40%
His recent games and popularity are pretty much what's boosting his chances. Otherwise, I'd put him at 20% or so. While he is by far the most likely Bethesda rep imo, there is no guarantee we will get a character from Bethesda, nor anything that has convinced me so far about why Nintendo themselves would pick them. Sure, it's the granddaddy of all first person shooters, but... I dunno, considering the marketing appeal that all characters - even Banjo - have worldwide, I just don't see Doom happening as much as other people do. Even in japan's most liked FPS chart, there are several other games that would take precedence.

Still, for a next Smash game? His chances will rise so much by then everyone will probably treat him as a lock.

Want: 25%
FPS games were never really my thing, so most of what I have to say about Doom is more about me respecting the series' roots than actually being hyped for it. Still, it probably would make a lot of people happy.

 

[Northadox]

Banana D
Chance - 1%
I'm sorry to say but I do believe the Fighter's Pass will consist primarily of third parties, and if they are first parties, I don't think Bandana Waddle Dee will be a part of that bunch. I'll give him a percent just because anything can happen, but still, it's not looking likely for Dee.
Want - 10%
I like Kirby a lot and have played through many mainline entries (and all of the ones RtDL and onward, where Dee is most prominent) but I don't understand the hype behind BWD. BWD himself is quarternary and just feels like an upgraded form of the the generic mook of Kirby; you might have heard the term "hat Goomba". Yes, he wields a spear, but I don't think the Spear moveset in Kirby is that unique and interesting for it to be a Smash inclusion. If it's a Kirby character we're talking about, I'd prefer Adeleine or Dark Matter.
Feenie Trite
Chance - 60%
A Capcom character seems to be in the running for the DLC pass, considering the return of old third party Mii Costumes, like what happened with Joker (and probably will happen for The Hero). But, who's in the running for this? Leon/Jill, Dante, Monster Hunter, Amaterasu...there's a lot of choices. But Phoenix sticks out to me, not just because I'm a fan of the Ace Attorney games, but out of the Capcom bunch, he's had perhaps one of the longest and strongest histories with Nintendo (with all games appearing on a Nintendo platform upon release and often being exclusive to Nintendo until mobile ports/AA Trilogy being multi-plat and existing originally on the GBA since 2001) and his franchise strikes me as one of the more character-driven. His genre of visual novels has yet to be represented in Smash, if that means anything. There are some problems, however. A moveset for him might be tricky to generate and differentiate from his appearance in MvC3 and due to his non-combativeness, but I think Sakurai and the Smash team could definitely come up with a distinct enough moveset. In addition, his franchise's nicheness and lack of sales might be a problem, and he's in competition with a lot of other Capcom characters. Going by fan support, Phoenix is actually more requested in the West then he may be in Japan, at least from what I've seen from polls from both regions.
Want - 100%
As evidenced by my avatar and aforementioned interest in the Ace Attorney series, I want Phoenix very, very, very much. Phoenix is an incredibly well-written (at least in the original trilogy) and iconic character to the DS line, and his moveset would be completely unique from any other fighter in the series. Plus, the MUSIC. I'd probably be more excited for the music than Phoenix himself. Smash is in desperate need of bangers like Pursuit ~ Cornered or dozens of other amazing tracks from the Ace Attorney series.
The Doom Person
Chance - 30%
Doom is big and has lots of legacy, especially in the gaming industry as a whole, and has had some affairs with Nintendo from time to time. Doomguy, while not as hugely requested as someone like Banjo-Kazooie, has placed fairly high in lots of fan polls. However...I'm just not feeling it. Perhaps it's his Western origins, lack of popularity in Japan, or the gratuitous violence in his series, but Doomguy in Smash, to me, feels just like an FPS' fans fever dream. Then again, anything as possible, especially with Banjo getting in.
Want - 30%
I'm not too passionate about Doom but I can see the importance. His archetype of a heavy weapon-touting hard-as-nails space marine is somewhat appealing, but I can't imagine his moveset would be that crazy unique.

 

[11th]

Did someone say "Bandana Dee re-rate"?


Bandana Waddle Dee (Re-re-rate) (Original Post / Re-Rate #1)

Spoiler

Chance: 2% (1/50) (↓48%) - The last time we rated him, his spirit was still unseen and we had no clue which direction the fighters pass was going to go in. While I was previously leaning towards spirits disconfirming, over the past few months I've started to lean towards them not mattering due to how late DLC was decided. In addition to that, it would be silly for them to deny a fighter entry over a single .png. As for the pass, however... now that we have Joker, the Dragon Quest Heroes, and Banjo & Kazooie, it's seeming increasingly unlikely that we'll see any first-party content from existing series on the pass, let alone any first-party DLC period. (Plant aside.) That said: Unfortunately, the only way that I could see Dee making it at this point is if we were to get a standalone DLC fighter outside of the pass. If that happens, I think that his chances would be fairly decent due to the Kirby series not getting much new content in the base game, and his consistent popularity... though they could just as easily pull another Corrin. I am a pretty firm believer that we are only getting the pass, though, so I wouldn't bank on that, but the thought is enough to stop me from dropping him to a full zero.
Want: 100% (→0%) - I would still absolutely love to see him... The fact that he only appears as a spirit does leave me a bit disappointed because of how easy it could have been to sneak him in somewhere else, and because of how many other high polling characters got Assist Trophies, Mii outfits (or parts), or other nods. He could have taken Isabelle's old Assist Trophy, or appeared in Dedede's Final Smash, entrance animation, or victory pose. They already had a Waddle Dee model to work with... I just don't understand why he got so little if he (probably) wasn't even considered for the roster.

Abstaining on Phoenix Wright and Doomguy for now... not sure if I'll be back to comment on them before the day change. (Edit: Quick rating time.)

Phoenix Wright
Chance: 8.33% (1/12) - While I wouldn't be too surprised to see another Capcom fighter join through the pass, part of the problem that he faces is just the fact that there are so many series that they could take a fighter from -- Resident Evil, Ōkami, Devil May Cry, Monster Hunter... I'm just not sure if Ace Attorney is popular enough or if Phoenix has been requested enough to stand out to the Smash team and Nintendo.
Want: Abstaining - Not enough knowledge on or connection to the series... though I'm also just particularly finicky with my third-party wants.

Doomguy
Chance: 4% (1/25) - Mr. Sakurai still seems to be unsure about working with non-Japanese properties due to the language barrier -- Banjo & Kazooie may have been an exception due to pre-existing communications between Microsoft and Nintendo regarding old Rareware releases. Because of that, I have a feeling that we aren't going to get another Western created character on the pass. If we do, though, it would probably be someone with more appeal in Japan, which Banjo & Kazooie also had, but Doomguy seems to lack.
Want: Abstaining - Same as above.


No nominations.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Sans/Celica pre-Bandana Dee/Phoenix Wright/Doomguy

Morrigan Aensland x155
Spyro x150
Crono x130
Kyle Hyde x125
Heavy (Team Fortress) x121
Kamek x121
Ellie (The Last of Us) x115

150 - 101

Saber (Fate) x112
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105

100 - 51

Aloy x100
Rundas x100
Concept: Valve rep x95
Boss: Kracko x92
Ninten x90
Frogger x85
Cadence (Crypt of the Necrodancer) x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
Glover x80
9-Volt x80
Adeleine (Kirby) x68
Specter Knight x67
Jin Kazama x65
Velvet Crowe x65
Terry Bogard x65
X (Mega Man) x63
Gene (God Hand) x60
Papyrus x51

50 - 25

Blaze the Cat x48
Decidueye x47
Captain Rainbow x45
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x40
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x40
[Rerate] Micaiah x40
Concept: DLC challenges x35
Concept: More Bosses x35
Gooey (Kirby) x34
Brian (Quest 64) x32
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Qbby x30
Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x28
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25
Boss: Perfect Chaos x25
Earthworm Jim x25

Under 25

Reporter & Wrestler x20
Tora and Poppi x20
Johnny Silverhand x20
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x18
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes fighter x18
King Boo x16
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Amaterasu x15
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x15
Black Shadow x13
Concept: Another joke character x13
Gex x12
Mike Jones x11
Marx (Kirby) x11
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo Fighter of K. Rool x10
Concept: Another western character x10
Toon Zelda x8
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x8
Magolor x6
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
Concept: Master Chief Mii Costume x5
Worm (Worms) x5
Balloon Fighter x5
Tiz Arrior x5
[Rerate] Sora (Kingdom Hearts) x5
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x5
Rash x5
Nightmare (Soul Calibur) x5
Concept: League of Legends rep x5
Lizalfos x4
Urbosa x3
[Rerate] Captain Toad x3
Boss: Sans x2
Sub-Zero x2
[Rerate] Geno x2
Concept: Street Fighter Mii costumes x2
Stahl x1
Duster x1
Pappy Van Poodle x1
Dr. Eggman x1
Toon Zelda & Tetra x1
[Rerate] Chibi-Robo x1

Kyle Hyde shoots past Heavy and reclaims fourth place. Ellie sneaks into the top 7, taking out Saber.

Gene punches through the 50 nom barrier.

Today's new concept is Another western character, with 10 noms.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Final D-day
Chance: 25%
So here we are, huh. Doesn't feel that long ago he was still considered a near lock for DLC by most due to the supposed absence of a spirit. And most supporters, including me, were very optimistic... untill it was revealed he was a spirit after all... and then Joker got confirmed at the Game awards... and then Reggie was interviewed and spouted some words which were taken by many as a death sentence to all first-parties, including BanDee.
Now, most people have put the thoughts of him as a potential fighter out of their heads. He gets rarely brought up, those who still do often being called out for clinging to false hope. Needless to say, things are looking grimm for this little guy, so why do I still give him 25?

Call me in denial but the state he's in at the moment just doesn't make sense to me. Seriously, Kirby main-stay number 4, one of, if not the most requested character in Japan with some western popularity as well and all he gets to be is a spirit, the lowest kind of role in the game? Not even an Assist Trophy, Mii costume/hat or a cameo in DDD's FS? If Bandana Dee was either of those things then I wouldn't still have hope but this is just stange. Why didn't they atleast show him in the direct to not have his fans still get their hopes up? Did Sakurai just not notice his popularity, does he just think that low of him or is his spirit just a cover up for the bigger plans he has with him?

I know that last one sounds extremely tinfoil hat-ish but hear me out. Despite all the theories and implications, it is still not confirmed spirits are automatic deconfirms, nor that the whole fighter pass is third-party. I don't blame you if you believe those possibilities, that's fine, but I refuse to accept these as fact as long as things still aren't 100% clear. My biggest question is why doesn't Sakurai just be simply honest with us? What's preventing him from straight up admitting in interviews that characters who are spirits will not be DLC fighters, or that the fighter pass won't contain fighters from Nintendo owned IP's? He has to be aware that spirits can cause confusion amongst the community regarding DLC, no? And it's also not much of a spoiler to tell who isn't gonna be on the roster, so why not just make things clear. Then there are other questions regarding Nintendo themselves, were they fine with the fact they possibly couldn't choose any characters who were already spiritted? Did they pick all five characters by hand or did they just give suggestions to Sakurai?

We just know too little. Who knows, we could just get blind-sighted at the last moment, like what happened with Corrin, hey Sm4sh's DLC newcomers also consisted mostly of third-parties, yet they still wanted a Nintendo character in there. Who's to say they can't do that again? Character 4 will probably be the most down to earth as they will likely be revealed in a normal direct and another third-party bombshell will likely be saved for last. As far as first-parties go, Bandana Dee's still up there imo. There's always the non-zero chance of some FE or Pokemon shill pick, but considering we just got Banjo-Kazooie I'm assuming Nintendo's a bit more cultured now.

Want: 100%
I consider Bandana Dee a character who's a victim of circumstance. He probably wasn't in Sm4sh's base roster, cause Meta Knight and Dedede were already added last game and Sakurai didn't want to look biased regarding Kirby again. He wasn't DLC either, cause the ballot didn't matter for that game and Fates got chosen to be advertised over all other potenial Nintendo games. He again wasn't in Ultimate's base as 'Everyone is here' left little space for newcomers and he didn't get prioritized over Ridley, K.Rool, Incinaroar and the likes. And he might not be DLC again either if Nintendo and Sakuarai don't want to bother with first-parties anymore. It's not easy supporting Dee, safe to say. Bandana Dee in Smash right now isn't just something I want cause I like him or to have modern Kirby be better represented. I want him so I can move on from supporting him. It's a chapter in my life that should come to a close.

More like Phoenix Wrong
Chance: 5%
Let's be honest. MVC3 is likely the one reason we're still discussing him to this day. Everybody points to that game as absolute Proof Wright can work in Smash...but I just don't see it. Sure he's already in a fighting game but I don't have to play MvC to know it fundamentally differs from Smash to a such a great extend that I'm not so sure that his moveset from that game translates to Smash with no issue. Besides, I currently think RE has it beat when it comes to a third original Capcom character. Phoenix to me seems like better costume material.

Want: abstaining

"Dude could you imagine him fighting Kirby and Pikachu lmao"
Chance: 5%
I think people like to point at Joker opening the gate for violent and realistic weaponry in Smash and Banjo for western third-parties and assume Doomguy is suddenly one of the likeliest characters right now. I guess the 5chan leak and Google theory also helped him getting more acknowleged, tho both are confirmed false now. The big problem is, they often overlook the Dragonborn who is major competition to Doomguy, especially taking into the fact that the Elder Scrolls is a franchise way more fitting to be in Smash, considering that series and the Dragonborn isn't just all about realistic blood and gore and intense violence. Remember, ''rip and tear'' doesn't really appeal much to a Japanese audience if the way Mortal Kombat is treated over there is any indication.

Want: abstaining

Also I just gave Bandana Dee a higher chance rating than two third-parties considered to be underrated, ain't that a hottake.

Jill: 41.82%
Leon: 52.98
Steve: 13.15%
Gene x5

 

[BowserKing]

Bandanna Dee

Chance: 15 to 29% or more. Is an evolved spirit, which makes it more difficult. However, since there is a Waddle Dee model in Smash (in one of King Dedede's victory animations), Bandanna Dee would be easy to implement and give a moveset to.

Want: 100%. While Adeleine is more likely, Bandanna Dee would be a fun addition to the roaster. Besides, we do need a spear user in the game.

Phoenix Wright

Chance: 20 to 30%. Capcom is well represented in Smash, so they could have him join the fight. But he will face competition from a lot of other Capcom characters.

Want: 60%. Would be a fun character to play with a unique moveset that sets him apart from the rest of the cast. Capcom being represented well in Smash helps too.

Doom Slayer

Chance: 10 to 15%. We do have 3 M rated characters (Snake, Bayonetta and Joker), so another one would not hurt. While he can destroy opponents, there will be thousands to compete against, but who knows.

Want: 50%. Would be a fierce opponents near many others and fun to use. I can already picture Samus and Snake teaming up with him to trash opponents down.

Noms: 2 for Earthworm Jim and 3 for Magolor

 

[Kirby Dragons]

Dee Chance: 30%

There's still some faith in me that Dee will become playable, but nothing is pointing to it. He's not necessarily deconfirmed though.

Dee Want: 100%

Dee should've been in the base game. He's the most popular character they could put in, and Kirby is still a fairly big series that only has three characters. We have characters with swords, guns, and hammers, but nobody with a spear.

 

[Sari]

Bandana Dee

Chance: 6%
E3 has only reaffirmed my thoughts that this wave will mainly be third party. Although he has his fans I just can't see Bandana Dee making the cut.

Want: 20%
Eh, I'm not the biggest Kirby fan though I wouldn't exactly hate BD. I like that he uses a spear though there are still a ton of other characters I wanna see first.

-----

Phoenix Wright

Chance: 30%
Very popular candidate whose series is incredibly close with Nintendo. If we are to get another Capcom rep then he seems likely, but I still think a Resident Evil rep would happen first considering how bigger that series is.

Want: Abstain
Never got to play PW so I won't comment. I had a blast using him in UMvC3 though.

-----

Doomguy

Chance: 30%

Pros:

• Doom is one of the most iconic games of all time as it helped popularize the FPS genre.
• The series has a strong history with Nintendo and is still going strong with new games that are also available on the Switch.
• Bethesda talked to Nintendo about Smash a few months before the DLC lineup was finalized.
• Sakurai holds John Carmack (co-founder of Id who worked on Doom) in high regard for being the father of FPS's. Not the biggest point but it's still something especially since Sakurai was a fan of Persona 5 and Dragon Quest.

Cons:

• FPS's aren't that popular in Japan and Doom itself really isn't that big there AFAIK.
• Doom is famous for its excessive gore and satanic imagery (Hell is even one of the big locations in the series). Obviously they could just tone it down, but Doom's violence is such a big part of the series that not having it present would feel very off.

In short he has a fair amount of things going for him though those con points (especially the first one) really hurt him.

Want: Abstain
Never really got into Doom so I won't comment. Only thing I will say is that I'd probably prefer Master Chief if there was to be an FPS character in Smash.

-----

Steve chance prediction: 23.22%
Jill chance prediction: 42.64%
Leon chance prediction: 48.94%

-----

Nominations:
Terry Bogard x5

 

[Ridrool64]

For once, the Lawyer wouldn't be the most evil person everybody's ever met. Neither would Motobug with a scarf be, but the gun guy seems kinda scary.

Bandee Chance: Honestly, I don't think this guy would be that likely even if he weren't a spirit, because Sakurai rebuffed him in Smash 4 and base game for what seems to be no reason given at all. But he is a Spirit, and more importantly than that, one that takes significant effort to obtain and evolves from another. There's the whole focus on third parties, and overall, Bandee's chances are slim. I think... 5%.

Bandee Want: I would rather have Gooey. However, I recognize that this character should come first because he's the one people have been asking for. I think a 35% will suffice.

Phoenix Chance: So is Ken chopped liver or something? Or does he not count as the new Capcom character because he's an Echo? Either way, Phoenix has competition from two series that completely dwarf him in popularity: Resident Evil and Monster Hunter. These series are much bigger, still associated with Nintendo as well. But it was clearly fan demand that got Banjo in, and Phoenix is the winner of that trade. 55% if Ken doesn't count, 5% if Ken counts as the new Capcom character, 0% if visual novels don't count as video games (they should, though).

Phoenix Want: Ace Attorney is an almost obliterated popular series in my circles of friends. While I'm not big on Nick making the case, having not touched his games, I'm very familiar with the memes, and how the timeline means that Nick is probably fired by right now, I think. So I would be happy to see Nick get in. 40%.

Doomguy Chance: This guy is really not in a pickle anymore. Being somebody who is a total icon of his genre is one thing, but the fact that Bethesda is buddy-buddy with Nintendo is another. I would not be surprised to see Doomguy in... but then again, there is Dovahkiin, so I don't think I'll break 50% for this guy.

Doomguy Want: E1M1 is so freaking good. It's probably in my top 10 songs that I want to hear in Smash, even if there's no character associated with it. Besides that, Doomguy I think has the pedigree to get in and more importantly, is somebody who would please a lot of people. 40%, never touched any DOOM game.

More Bosses x 5.

 

[Chandeelure]

Bandana Dee.

Chances: 10%

Looks like we will have just third parties and maybe a first party ad.
The 10% chances are because miracles exist and because a Fighter Pass 2 could happen.

Want: 100%

Bandana Dee is and will forever be my most wanted until he gets in.

 

[culumon]

So is Ken chopped liver or something? Or does he not count as the new Capcom character because he's an Echo?

Mega Man was base game in Sm4sh, Ryu DLC. I think everyone's operating under the assumption the same would apply here.

Plus we got two new Konami characters this game on top of a vet who sat the last game out, meaning three characters from the same third party in one fell swoop. There doesn't seem to be a limit for this thing.

 

[3DSNinja]

I have nothing on Doomguy so I am abstaining there.
On the other hand:
Bandana Dee:
Chance:50%: Let me break this down. First, people are saying that since it is saying Smash Ultimate x *this franchise* we can’t get a first party. Guys, they have done this before, in BASE GAME. Just because a pattern exists doesn’t mean it is true. Also, everyone is saying that BDee is too obvious. No, he isn’t. Everyone is expecting Doomguy or Crash or really out of left field characters that no one sees coming. Honestly, Bandana Dee is likely because Sakurai, despite not putting him in Base or Sm4sh, knows that he is a fan favorite. Plus, no one sees it coming. Rant 1 over.
Want:100%: I WANT THIS SO BAD! The only charcter besides him I want more is legit my favorite video game character, so you KNOW I want him bad. He has so much potential to be an unique and interesting fighter using a never before seen weapon. Please Sakurai, plus more Kirby spirits that are oddly absent and more Kirby music and (hopefully) Another Dimension as a stage. Just. YES!
OBJECTION!
Chance:95%: Phoenix is very high in chance ratings because honestly he makes a lot of sense. Sure, Resident Evil is more popular. But how could a moveset work? Plus a charcter couldn’t really represent the nature of RE well. It would be better suited as just a stage. On the other hand, Phoenix Wright has a moveset, and even if UMvC 3 doesn’t count, Super Smash Bros. Crusade has a moveset that works really well in a Smash setting. Plus the fact that the series got a port of the original trilogy to Switch, just makes him more likely. The second most likely character for DLC, only beaten by Crash IMO.
Want:100%: As someone who just started playing Ace Attorney, this would be great. The Crusade moveset is great, but doesn’t represent all of the mechanics. I would love if you could build up evidence and use Psyche-locks, Objections, Take That, Hold It, etc. as powerful moves. Using all of the evidence would be great. Heck, he could use The Thinker and other key items from the original trilogy in attacks. This would be a great character to show how Sakurai can be really creative and make a really refreshing and original character. I would main instantly.
Nominations:
Blaze x3, Specter Knight x2

 

[GoodGrief741]

I have nothing on Doomguy so I am abstaining there.
On the other hand:
Bandana Dee:
Chance:50%: Let me break this down. First, people are saying that since it is saying Smash Ultimate x *this franchise* we can’t get a first party. Guys, they have done this before, in BASE GAME. Just because a pattern exists doesn’t mean it is true. Also, everyone is saying that BDee is too obvious. No, he isn’t. Everyone is expecting Doomguy or Crash or really out of left field characters that no one sees coming. Honestly, Bandana Dee is likely because Sakurai, despite not putting him in Base or Sm4sh, knows that he is a fan favorite. Plus, no one sees it coming. Rant 1 over.
Want:100%: I WANT THIS SO BAD! The only charcter besides him I want more is legit my favorite video game character, so you KNOW I want him bad. He has so much potential to be an unique and interesting fighter using a never before seen weapon. Please Sakurai, plus more Kirby spirits that are oddly absent and more Kirby music and (hopefully) Another Dimension as a stage. Just. YES!
OBJECTION!
Chance:95%: Phoenix is very high in chance ratings because honestly he makes a lot of sense. Sure, Resident Evil is more popular. But how could a moveset work? Plus a charcter couldn’t really represent the nature of RE well. It would be better suited as just a stage. On the other hand, Phoenix Wright has a moveset, and even if UMvC 3 doesn’t count, Super Smash Bros. Crusade has a moveset that works really well in a Smash setting. Plus the fact that the series got a port of the original trilogy to Switch, just makes him more likely. The second most likely character for DLC, only beaten by Crash IMO.
Want:100%: As someone who just started playing Ace Attorney, this would be great. The Crusade moveset is great, but doesn’t represent all of the mechanics. I would love if you could build up evidence and use Psyche-locks, Objections, Take That, Hold It, etc. as powerful moves. Using all of the evidence would be great. Heck, he could use The Thinker and other key items from the original trilogy in attacks. This would be a great character to show how Sakurai can be really creative and make a really refreshing and original character. I would main instantly.
Nominations:
Blaze x3, Specter Knight x2

Man, I wish I could have such high hopes for those two characters.

Also remember that MvC has given us 5 RE movesets (STARS Jill, Chris, Black Widow Jill, Wesker and Nemesis).

 

[Ridrool64]

Mega Man was base game in Sm4sh, Ryu DLC. I think everyone's operating under the assumption the same would apply here.

Ah, that makes more sense.

 

[Nemuresu]

Bandana Waddle Dee:
Chance: 0%-I'll reiterate: this Pass is likely going to be just third-party characters. Nothing so far has given me any reason to think Nintendo characters will be included. Spirits are still spirits and the line-up hasn't shown a single first-party character as well. And until I see otherwise, I'm not considering him or his likes as possible.
Want: 10%-I'm not interested. Guy has as a spear that he uses in different ways and I'm not convinced he'll be a fun character. All he'd do to me is bring more Kirby content into the game.

Naruhodo-kun:
Chance: 70%-Guy's popular among Smash fans. Banjo has shown fan-favourites can still happen. Capcom has shows to be very flexible with Smash, and on top of it, they're really the only company with such a broad library of characters that people love, but that also goes against him, since he needs to compete with RE characters, Amaterasu and other characters on the front line.
Want: 0%-Okay, short experience from my end. I remember when this guy was revealed for UMvC3, and everyone threw a hissy fit about him. Didn't really know why was he such a bad addition aside of not being X, and as time went on, I realized it didn't even have a reason, since they characters himself was very requested, it was just the MvC fandom being whiny about petty things. I'd rather not see that again. And even if we take that out, the guy was a real lame addition to that game; and Smash wouldn't do him any better, since he comes from a game about solving crimes and preventing innocents from entering jail; I struggle thinking of a moveset that isn't too similar to UMvC3 at all.

Doomguy:
Chance: 50%-It's a gamble to me. On one hand, we know that Nintendo and Bethesda have talked about Smash, and their relationship has been very positive; but on the other hand, that really doesn't mean much on the grand scheme of things. Sakurai has also praised Carmack, but that doesn't have much importance either, considering he praised Xenoblade Chronicles 2 as the best game of 2017, and Rex is only a costume. He's just one of those characters I see with both positive and negative chances not being bigger than each other.
Want: 50%-Very neutral. Not the character I'm interested the most, but I can see an appeal into bringing him into Smash. It honestly just depends on how the moveset is executed.

Nominations: Morrigan x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Want: 0%-Okay, short experience from my end. I remember when this guy was revealed for UMvC3, and everyone threw a hissy fit about him. Didn't really know why was he such a bad addition aside of not being X, and as time went on, I realized it didn't even have a reason, since they characters himself was very requested, it was just the MvC fandom being whiny about petty things. I'd rather not see that again. And even if we take that out, the guy was a real lame addition to that game; and Smash wouldn't do him any better, since he comes from a game about solving crimes and preventing innocents from entering jail; I struggle thinking of a moveset that isn't too similar to UMvC3 at all.

I recall PW being received great by the MvC audience upon his reveal.

 

[Nemuresu]

I recall PW being received great by the MvC audience upon his reveal.

And sadly, that wasn't what I saw in my own experience. Can't say much other than me not being lucky to see the brighter side of things.

 

[SilentSentinel]

BWD - 1% Chance

I think this character has a lot of fans, and I respect their desire for this character. If a second pass is announced I will definitely be adjusting this rating, but I think the current run of DLC will be it for the game. I'm firmly in the "all third parties" camp and have been from quite some time, and while I'll never give a 0% chance to anything after Plant got in, I really don't see it happening.

BWD - 15% want

I'm not a big Kirby person myself and have only played Air Ride which doesn't feature this character. That being said I'd be happy for his fans at least.

Phoenix Wright - 15% Chance

Capcom getting another character seems very likely to me, and Phoenix seems like a character with a bit more fan support than some others. The Ace Attorney series has also been a mainstay on Nintendo platforms. However, I'm far more bullish on Resident Evil's chances (it is the single franchise that I think is more likely than not to get one of the final two open spots). If RE is passed over than Phoenix Wright has a good shot, but I don't think it will.

Phoenix Wright - 40% want

I'm not that familiar with Ace Attorney either but the franchise seems cool and I might pick up the collection on Switch. I think the character could bring something interesting to the game.

Doomguy - 12% Chance

Rumblings from Pete Hines and various debunked leaks aside, I guess Doomguy has a shot, if an outside one. Doom's impact on gaming is undeniable and the series has been surprisingly strong on Nintendo systems, but I'm not sure if Japan's fondness for the series is enough to get him in. We only just got the ever Western IP confirmed for the game, it seems a bit of a stretch to suggest another one might follow so soon after. I don't believe the violence stuff is an issue whatsoever though.

Doomguy - 90% want

I'd be really excited if he got in. I was too young to play the originals when they came out but got into the classics of the series in my teenage years and loved Doom 2016. Can't wait for Eternal either.

 

[Jomosensual]

Bandana Dee

Chance 0 - Sorry guys, he's done. He's a spirit and 1st party character and I feel like both will deconfirm for this pass. I think he might be a big contender for pass number 2 should that come but right now it's not going to happen.

Want 10 - Never was that in to Bandana Dee. Feel like there's so many more interesting characters out there than him to make the game from both first and 3rd party companies

Doom Guy
Chance 35 - One big issue I had with Ryu Hayabusa also applies here, which is all the theories and leaks that had his name on it have been proven fake, which makes me wonder if he's more leak bait than anything. However, I do think Doom Guy has a much better chance to make the game since he is significantly more iconic than Ryu is. I'm still in the tank for Mii Costume Theory as well( even though I'm really starting to wonder about it due to Namco not really having much to pick from. Will talk about that more in the appropriate day.) so I'm not confident of in him getting in for that reason as well

Want 30 - Wouldn't really be pumped for Doom Guy since I've never played Doom, but I do think he deserves to be here. Probably would have the same reaction I had for Hero where I'd say "Oh, well that's cool I guess" and then move on .

Phoenix Wright
Chance 70 - I really think he's a front runner to get in right now. I think Capcom is getting another character in the game for sure, and it's either him or one of the RE duo for me. His series is pretty long running, the fan demand has been there(not on a Banjo level or anything, but it's there), nearly his entire series has been on Nintendo, and I think he would sell pretty well too. Feels like a really under talked about option that hopefully gets more steam now that Erdrick/Sora and Steve/Banjo debates have finally died off

Want 100 - Started playing Ace Attorney recently and absolutely love it. Getting both him and Joker, who was my other most wanted realistic pick for DLC(RIP Nathan Drake) would make this fighter pass perfect in my opinion no matter who the final character is. The only aspect I don't have a good feel for is the music. Only on game 3 right now but it feels like they'd need to do a lot of remakes or rearrangements for the music. Doubt that's a real killer or anything but it's just a thought that's come to mind

Noms
Ellie x all(not sure how many we have for the day)

 

[CometX-ing]

D. Waddle Dee
Chances: 5%
Want: Abstain

Seeing as the DLC has been sticking with third parties, I really doubt that we will be seeing another first party character. Maybe if by some grace of Sakurai there is another DLC Pack then he is certainly a front runner given his Japan popularity, but as is, his chances really aren't good for the current DLC pack.

Phoenix Wright
Chance: 10%
Want: 0%

His chances are pretty poor even among Capcom characters, but I also doubt we will be getting another Capcom character for DLC. I think it's pretty clear that the DLC characters stop coming at 3 reps. I would argue that outside of Sega (though really Joker counts more as an Atlus rep given it being present in the Copyrights) no other third party is really likely to get a unique third rep. But even if I'm wrong it will likely not be Phoenix and rather someone from Capcom's bigger franchises.

Nothing against Phoenix but I don't really want another Capcom rep. Capcom is well represented beyond any of the other companies save for Konami and I'm pretty sour over Namco being represented by one character. I'd rather companies like Microsoft and Namco get a second rep before Capcom, Konami or Sega get another one.

Doomguy
Chance: 10%
Want: Abstain

People are going a bit high on his chances. I mean sure, he has a chance, just like any other character on Switch, and sure Doom is popular in the west, but that's about where it stops. Doomguy is western, violent and from a genre not all too popular in the west. While being western isn't a death sentence, it is a hindrance as we ONLY have Banjo as a purely western rep. And while we have violent characters in the form of Bayonetta and Snake, you have to remember the special circumstances that both characters were in when they got added. One was a favor to a friend and Nintendo published Bayonetta 2. People also like to lean on the idea of Sakurai saying John Carmack was the father of FPS, but that is literally just him stating a fact, and doesn't actually mean much for him getting in. I mean hell, look at Dragon Quest, the most influential JRPG, it was passed up for Final Fantasy in Smash for due to it being more popular. And there is at least one FPS that is more popular than Doom with a character more iconic that also already has his company present in Smash. And while people may think Microsoft won't get two reps in one DLC, there really isn't much reason to think that.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I think it's pretty clear that the DLC characters stop coming at 3 reps. I would argue that outside of Sega (though really Joker counts more as an Atlus rep given it being present in the Copyrights) no other third party is really likely to get a unique third rep.

Uhhh, why?

 

[JCKirbs]

Bandana Waddle Dee

Chances: 10% - It's honestly for the better at this point, since after seeing Joker, Banjo, and Hero, he wouldn't exactly fit right in. Plus, so far all of the DLC characters have been from franchises not yet represented in Smash, not to mention that they're all 3rd Parties as well. The only thing keeps the percentage from dropping all the way to 0 is if there's a second Pass in the future which pulls certain characters out of their misery and puts them into Smash by any means, even without a stage or music.

Want: 100% - Every day I can't help but sigh when apparently even the most unexpected, left-field characters can enter into Smash, yet a popular, bandana-wearing buddy who would require less effort, energy, sweat, and tears to include apparently isn't worth even the least bit of trouble. As for the character himself, I could go on and on about how much I've wanted him since forever, but at this point it doesn't really seem to matter.

Phoenix Wright

Chances: 20% - After witnessing Banjo, Joker, and Hero taking the stage, I couldn't see someone like Phoenix topping their reveals. He'd certainly be left-field, and people do care about him and want him in Smash, but I don't see him drumming up even a fraction of the hype that someone like Banjo had. Even then, hype isn't everything, but if you actually want a character to sell well it kind of depends on it in a way, at least in my view.

Want: 0% - I have no attachment to the character or the series he comes from, but more power to the people that do.

Doom Guy/Slayer

Chances: 80% - Yep, he's almost a lock. Bethesda hasn't gotten a rep into Smash yet, and their relationship with Nintendo is pretty strong, as they've worked towards bringing both DOOM and DOOM: Eternal onto the Switch, and Doom Guy would be a perfect way to advertise the newest entry, similar to how Hero is linked towards the newest Dragon Quest game headed onto the Switch. Doom Guy's increasing arsenal of weapons, gadgets and tools would fit into Smash like a glove, and heck, who wouldn't love to rip and tear in Smash? (Well, only as a metaphorical term of course).

Want: 50% - While I haven't played any of the games, I think I know enough about DOOM to know that Doom Guy would be a fun and interesting character that would bring quite a bit to the Smash table.

 

[CometX-ing]

Uhhh, why?

Because both Konami and Capcom have their third characters as echo fighters. And this being odd for Capcom who could have added a Monster Hunter rep to tie it to the boss fight in the game. But as it stands they are the only ones with a boss that doesn't tie into anyone, Dracula for Simon, Marx for Kirby, Ganon for Link and Rathalos for.... no one. If they intended to add a third unique rep they would have, especially to tie into Monster Hunter World, but instead we got a random boss fight and Ken as an echo fighter.

Then there is that fact that Atlus is listed separately from Sega, seemingly as a way to allow Joker to be in, but technically not give Sega more than two unique character. Platinum wasn't listed separately for Bayonetta, nor was Rare for Banjo. Going by that, it seems more than likely we won't be getting another unique, Capcom, Konami or Sega character.

 

[Handy Man]

I'm abstaining on Bandana Waddle Dee and Doom Guy, I'm only posting in here to show my support for Phoenix Wright. Here goes!

Chance - 65%
Capcom has a ton of great IPs, such as Resident Evil, Monster Hunter, Okami, and of course, Ace Attorney. With Capcom loving to create DLC for its games, plus the fact that the Mega Man and Street Fighter series are already represented in Smash, this gives Phoenix Wright a lot of competition. In my opinion, the Ace Attorney series biggest threat right now in terms of other Capcom IPs is Resident Evil. With a long standing history going back to the PlayStation 1, plenty of movies being made, horror games going unrepresented in Smash, and over 90 million sales across the series, Resident Evil can be seen as a major threat to a relatively niche series like Ace Attorney. Monster Hunter can be seen as a threat as well, but with spirits and music from the series already in Smash, I don't think it would entirely fit with the specifications of the fighter pass. With that out of the way, Ace Attorney has some things that make it stick out as a great choice for a Capcom DLC character, so I'll take a dive into what Ace Attorney could bring to the game, and how it could beat out other options for a Capcom DLC rep.

Ace Attorney, like Resident Evil, has many games in its series. Ace Attorney also has an anime, a few mangas, a live action movie, theme park attractions, live orchestra concerts, and so much more, especially in Japan. To compare, Persona has also received its own orchestra concert, and Dragon Quest has received a theme park attraction as well. With all the media surrounding the Ace Attorney series in Japan, it shows that Capcom really loves the series over there and does a lot to push the franchise forward. With that said, Capcom is not totally confident in the series outside of Japan. Capcom have made certain games in the series download only, like Dual Destinies and Spirit of Justice, or even not released outside of Japan at all, like The Great Ace Attorney and Investigations 2. Meanwhile, Resident Evil has seen mainstream success worldwide, and almost all of its games have been released outside of Japan.

Ace Attorney life time sales are also somewhere around 10 million units, and while that may seem bad compared to Resident Evil, it has sold around the same range as Shin Megami Tensei's 12 million total units, which is the parent franchise to Persona. The Banjo-Kazooie series has also sold around the same range, with Kazooie selling 3.6 million, Tooie selling 1.5 million, and Nuts & Bolts selling roughly $500,000. The only fighter pass franchise added with high sales numbers so far is Dragon Quest, being at a staggering $70 million. This shows that a franchise's sales may not hold much weight, but with Ace Attorney's relative obscurity in the west combined with Resident Evil's worldwide success may push Capcom towards pushing for Resident Evil over Ace Attorney, let alone other series like Devil May Cry or Viewtiful Joe.

Ace Attorney also has some other factors that may make it appealing for Capcom to choose, but nothing truly definitive. One of the bigger examples is the fact that Ace Attorney represents a genre not seen in Smash; visual novels, or point-and-click adventure games. Visual novels are rising in popularity over the years, and Phoenix Wright is one of the biggest reasons the genre is getting exposure outside of Japan. Plus, all of the Ace Attorney games are critically acclaimed. With the high bar Ace Attorney sets for the genre, adding Phoenix to Smash would not only bring attention to his franchise, but a genre that greatly needs more exposure.

The fact that Phoenix Wright would have a unique moveset may also push Capcom towards using him over Chris Redfield or Leon Kennedy, as Phoenix's unorthodox methods of fighting may make him a more interesting pick to Sakurai. Resident Evil characters may use weapons already used by characters like Snake or Joker, while Phoenix Wright's desk slamming and step ladder shenanigans may make him a more appealing choice. With that said, Sakurai may see more value in a moveset for a Resident Evil rep than Phoenix, and may find a way to make the Reisdent Evil rep play differently. Another interesting point is the music and stage either franchise would bring with them. Phoenix Wright has a strong stage contender in the courtroom, while the Resident Evil stage would largely depend on which protagonist is added to Smash. Either way, both Ace Attorney and Resident Evil bring unrepresented genres with them to Smash, so that becomes another tough decision for the potential Capcom rep.

In conclusion, Phoenix Wright definitely has some things going for him as a possible Capcom rep, plus Capcom really loves his series in Japan. With that said, the mainstream success of Resident Evil may have too much power over Capcom's relatively smaller franchises. We also may not get a Capcom rep at all, but considering how much Capcom loves DLC, plus the fact that Ryu was DLC in Smash 4, that would greatly surprise me. I think Phoenix Wright has a good shot for DLC, especially if Ace Attorney 7 is announced at Tokyo Games Show in September, but it's ultimately up to the higher ups at Capcom and Sakurai to decide what franchise would be best for Smash. All we can do is believe in our clients innocence, or the miracle never happen.

Want - 100%
Ever since King K. Rool was revealed back in August of last year, Phoenix Wright has remained my most wanted newcomer for Super Smash Bros. Ultimate. The Ace Attorney games mean so much to me, as they have became some of my favorite games of all time. I can heavily relate to Phoenix Wright's never give up until it's over attitude, plus the fact that he always goes against odds but still perseveres through everything reminds me a lot of my mindset and experiences at Smash tournaments over the years. The Ace Attorney games have also always been on Nintendo platforms, with some games being ported to mobile and now even the PS4 and Xbox One. I feel like the Ace Attorney games are at home on Nintendo, much like the Mega Man series, and I feel like they deserve some sort of reward for the consistant support they give for Nintendo.

Plus, Ace Attorney in Smash would bring a lot of great content. Of course, you can't go wrong with the courtroom being a stage, which would be a hilarious stage to participate in. The music in the series is fantastic too; if I had to choose exactly 11 songs to put in the stage, like Joker's Mementos, here are my picks:

1. Pursuit ~ Cornered
2. Steel Samurai (Remix)
3. The Great Revival (Remix)
4. Pursuit ~ Caught (Remix)
5. Fragrance of Dark Coffee
6. Apollo Justice ~ Objection!
7. Athena Cykes ~ Courtroom Revolutionnaire
8. Pursuit ~ Cornering Together
9. Confrontation ~ Presto 2009
10. Pursuit ~ Wanting to Find the Truth
11. Naruhodou Ryuunosuke ~ Objection

The moveset would be interesting too. With a step ladder up special, desk slam down smash, The Thinker statue as a projectile, Objection bubbles, and so much more, there really wouldn't be a character in the game like Phoenix Wright. I imagine a lot of his attacks being goofy and resulting from accidents, like how Isabelle accidently fires off party poppers or whistles to stop signs. It would be cool if there were also some kind of evidence gimmick, which could power up Phoenix's Objection, based on how much evidence he has collected. Plus, he could have alternate costume variants, like my darling feenie, older Phoenix Wright from Dual Destinies and Spirit of Justice, or even the hobo costume, which I would personally rock due to the irony of it. Maya Fey, Phoenix Wright's assistant and sidekick, could also show up for his taunts and victory theme, much like Morgana does with Joker. For the older Phoenix Wright, his adopted daughter Trucy Wright may show up for him instead of Maya Fey. Other characters like Apollo Justice and Miles Edgeworth could also make cameo appearances on the courtroom stage.

Overall, Phoenix Wright could bring a lot of great content to Smash. He even has an easy choice for a series icon, as it is seen in many of the game's logos. Plus, many people in Japan would absolutely love Phoenix Wright as his games are beloved over there, plus it would give the Ace Attorney series a much needed boost in the West. We are seeing a similar effect with Dragon Quest as well, as many people in Japan love those games, while they are relatively niche in the West. No character that could be added would make me happier than Phoenix Wright; his character development throughout his games is very satisfying and relatable to me, and I've played every game except for The Great Ace Attorney 2 and love all of them very much. Getting Resident Evil in Smash over Ace Attorney would be a respectable loss, but Capcom deciding to push Ace Attorney instead would be a miracle. I really hope said miracle does happen, as the only time a lawyer can cry is when it's all over. We just have to keep fighting until the bitter end, and I will personally never give up in my client; Phoenix Wright will absolutely be my main if he ever gets announced. If you have read everything up to this point, I appreciate your interest very much. No hard feelings if Ace Attorney goes unrepresented, and good luck to everyone else who is waiting on their dream character to be added to Smash.

 

[TemporalShrew]

Because both Konami and Capcom have their third characters as echo fighters. And this being odd for Capcom who could have added a Monster Hunter rep to tie it to the boss fight in the game. But as it stands they are the only ones with a boss that doesn't tie into anyone, Dracula for Simon, Marx for Kirby, Ganon for Link and Rathalos for.... no one. If they intended to add a third unique rep they would have, especially to tie into Monster Hunter World, but instead we got a random boss fight and Ken as an echo fighter.

Then there is that fact that Atlus is listed separately from Sega, seemingly as a way to allow Joker to be in, but technically not give Sega more than two unique character. Platinum wasn't listed separately for Bayonetta, nor was Rare for Banjo. Going by that, it seems more than likely we won't be getting another unique, Capcom, Konami or Sega character.

That's extremely circumstantial evidence, though. There's absolutely no concrete evidence that anyone on the Smash team cares whatsoever about the particular "representation" of specific companies. This theory depends on essentially psychoanalyzing the reasons that certain elements of a company's intellectual properties were or were not included - there could just as easily be independent reasons for each of these decisions.

E: Further, Joker is listed under Atlus because Atlus is the publisher of his games, not because they needed an excuse to add another Sega-owned property. Bayonetta isn't listed under Platinum because, while Platinum did develop the Bayonetta games, they didn't publish them.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Because both Konami and Capcom have their third characters as echo fighters. And this being odd for Capcom who could have added a Monster Hunter rep to tie it to the boss fight in the game. But as it stands they are the only ones with a boss that doesn't tie into anyone, Dracula for Simon, Marx for Kirby, Ganon for Link and Rathalos for.... no one. If they intended to add a third unique rep they would have, especially to tie into Monster Hunter World, but instead we got a random boss fight and Ken as an echo fighter.

Then there is that fact that Atlus is listed separately from Sega, seemingly as a way to allow Joker to be in, but technically not give Sega more than two unique character. Platinum wasn't listed separately for Bayonetta, nor was Rare for Banjo. Going by that, it seems more than likely we won't be getting another unique, Capcom, Konami or Sega character.

So, your reasoning is 'no third party has more than three characters, therefore no third party can have more than three characters'.

You know that was the argument made for only one rep per company before Ryu, and the same argument for only two unique reps per company before Joker got in, right? It holds no ground.

And as has been mentioned, Atlus is a publisher, which is why they get credit. Platinum is a freelance dev and Rare is fully absorbed into Microsoft; they don't own any share of the rights. Atlus didn't get credited to distance Joker from being a Sega rep, they got credited because they legally have to be.

Do you consider Monolith Soft, Game Freak, Creatures Inc, HAL, Shigesato Itoi, etc to be separate, independent companies? 'Cause if so, we're way beyond three characters per company.

 

[Zerp]

Gonna abstain from Phoenix because I have no idea about him lol

Bandana Dee:

Chances: 29%*
(If opinions on additional fighter passes happening don't count for this then pretend my score is 14%)

I don't think he's likely at all for the current pass but I'm pretty convinced a second pass will happen because it will make an absurd amount of money and I'm sure Nintendo will want to double dip, I doubt Smash Wii-U's DLC would have ended so quickly if the Wii-U sold well and there wasn't a next Smash being planned for already. I also don't think him being a spirit is that big of a deal, if the devs really want to make a character I imagine they aren't going to let a PNG file and minor role in the game stop them. Anyway, his biggest weakness imo is probably HAL not pushing for the character. Intelligent Systems and The Pokemon Company/GameFreak/Creatures seem like they push for promotional content in Smash and HAL probably doesn't given the relatively low amount of Kirby content featuring the modern games, so yeah, I see that as an obstacle he'd have to overcome to get in the game.

Want: 100%

I'd be beyond happy, Bandana Dee is one of my most wanted characters, I love the character and more importantly, I love the community that's formed around the character, both on discord and SmashBoards. I've been a part of his support base for like 5 or 6 years now, and I'd be lying if I told you that I didn't make a ton of friends because of it, this little hat goomba brings a ton of people together lol. Literally the only negative thing about him is that I'd prefer Dark Matter who also comes from the same series, but I feel like Kirby could go for two or more characters instead of just one anyway and it wouldn't stop me from being extremely happy for all my friends finally getting their wish come true.

Doomguy:

Chances: 20%
I know Bethesda talked to Nintendo recently, but I'm very skeptical of anything involving Bethesda, I don't have any evidence for this but I have a feeling that they wouldn't be the best at making business deals. Still, Doomguy/Doomslayer is a gaming icon, and he wouldn't be surprising to see at all.

Want: 50%
I have no personal connection to Doom and he isn't a character I've been clamoring for, but the game he hails from is very important to gaming history, the character design is cool and he appeals to my personal tastes, I doubt he wouldn't be fun for me lol. He'd also give me an excuse to finally get around to playing the Doom games, so that's pretty cool.

 

[Nquoid]

Bandana Dee
Chance 5%
Want 5%

Beyond the fact that I dont think the DLC will have any first party characters. Bandana Dee doesn't feel like it would be who Nintendo would pick. There are bigger more clamoured for characters just looking at the assist trophy pool.

As for want. I love Kirby, but the love fest for Dee is bizarre to me. He's so clearly just a space filler to bring the roster up to 4. Except not quite as lazy as when Nintendo just had two Toads in NSMBU. Kirby has its three big lead, it doesn't need a fourth, especially when other OG smash franchises like F-Zero and Yoshi only have one.

Phoenix Wright:
Chance: 50%
Want: 40%

The big thing against Phoenix is Resident Evil and Monster Hunter. If Capcom want the franchise most associated with Nintendo then Phoenix is your guy. But Resident Evil and Monster Hunter are bigger. And Leon is the star of Resident Evil 4 which will forever be a Gamecube game to many

As for want. I've never played the games, but they were always the titles I was gonna next get on the DS but never got around to. Maybe I should pick up the trilogy set and get hooked on the franchise and be disappointed when they dont pick him...

Doomslayer
Chance: 10%
Want: 25%

I know we've had the debate about violence, but man Doomguy is too violent. He heals by smashing in heads. A chainsaw is a weapon historically associated with him. They could tone him down, but that isn't Doomguy. I also think we are done with Western reps for this dlc set

In terms of want, Doom is a fantastic game. But when it comes to relationship with Nintendo there's Doom 64 and nothing till the Switch. Bethesda didn't do anything on Nintendo systems for years. At least every third party company so far has supported Nintendo through darker times, and I'd rather see that rewarded than companies who didn't want to invest in Nintendo consoles.

 

[Neosonic97]

That one Waddle Dee that keeps appearing.

Chance: oof
Bandanna Dee's pretty much screwed, sadly. I'm of the camp that Spirits do deconfirm for DLC, and on top of that, the third-party focus of the Fighter's pass already meant Bandanna Dee was in trouble. Him being a Spirit is just the final nail in the coffin. Maybe next time.

Want: 40%
Bandanna Dee IS the de facto 4th main character of the Kirby Series, but I do think there are other Kirby Reps who I'd want more, although my choices are from other games, like Adeline & Ribbon, Magolor, Susie or the Mage-Sisters.

OBJECTION! That was... objectionable! (Yes, I know that's a quote from Edgeworth, not Phoenix)

Chance: 30%.
I'm of the mind that there are plenty of other Capcom reps who are a higher priority than everybody's favourite finger-pointing lawyer. Don't get me wrong, I do think there are a couple of good reasons for him getting in (For one, Ace Attorney is THE most popular visual novel in the world, easily beating out Danganronpa and Fate, the other two visual novel juggernauts), and there certainly is potential for a moveset, given Ultimate Marvel vs. Capcom 3, but I just think that until we get the more notable Capcom reps, like Leon, the Monster Hunter, and possibly Amaterasu (not featuring Dante from the Devil May Cry series though, he's already been deconfirmed), Phoenix probably isn't in.

Want: 50%
I'd be totally okay with Phoenix in Smash, but I think that he'd have to be significantly different from his UMvC3 appearance to even think about fighting in Smash. I do love Ace Attorney though (even if that case with the metal detector was complete and utter bull), so that's a definite yes in my book.

RIP AND TEAR

Chance: 5%
Yeah... Doom as a series I think is too violent for Smash. It's a game where enemies (and sometimes the player) regularly get blown into ludicrous amounts of bloody gibs (Which, yes, is a big part of Doom's identity), and is extremely bloody. Realistically, the guy fits more into Mortal Kombat than Super Smash Bros. I mean, Doom is a game where you can theoretically reduce demons to bloody gibs just by punching them enough. Really, what more needs saying?

Want: 10%
Ehhh... I'm not big on the idea of hugely violent video games like Doom or Mortal Kombat getting into Smash. Other such characters like Bayonetta had to be toned down for Smash, and the violent nature of Doom is actually a pretty big part of its identity. The Chainsaw is pretty much one of Doomguy's signature weapons, alongside the Rocket Launcher, Super Shotgun, Minigun and of course the BFG 9000.

 

[Ultomato]

Spear boi

Chance: 6,25%
I'm in camp "Spirits deconfirm" but I like to give an "what if" rating. Bandana Dees chances are bleak, however. Kirby already has decent representation, especially with Marx as an amazing Boss fight. If a new Kirby rep ever does get in, spear boi is the strongest contender, albeit not the only one.

Want: 50%
I'm very indifferent towards this character, but I like how he uses his spear in the games where you play as him so I expect to like his playstyle a lot.

OBJECTION

Chance: 66,67%
For reasons many before me have explained, a capcom rep is nearly a certainty. Phoenix still has Resident Evil and Dark Souls to compete with, but his history with Nintendo and more importantly him having been requested a lot in the past makes him the prime contender.

Want: 75%
I'm not a huge fan of Ace Attorney but they're really good games. I can't deny that he deserves this spot. Also I really really really wanna see what Sakurai does with the character.

Name changing *****

Chance: 12,5%
Doomboi is an interesting case, in that Bethesda is an interesting case. The bond between Nintendo and Bethesda started out strong with the release of the switch but not much has happened since. This makes it very difficult to make predictions and pushes me againts thinking a Bethesda rep that likely, although it's still more likely than a lot of other companies. Then there's the competition: Dragonborn.

Want: 60%
I'm really not a fan of Dooms aestetic. But the character has a great legacy and definitely deserves his spot in the video Game hall of fame. I'd be glad to see him arrive.

Steve prediction: 9,38%
Interchangable Resident Evil rep prediction: 35,36%

Noms: Rundas x5

 

[cmbsfm]

You can tell how many people here don’t know anything about Doom if they think the rip and tear stuff is a staple to the series. More people need to play the original Doom.

 

[Neosonic97]

You can tell how many people here don’t know anything about Doom if they think the rip and tear stuff is a staple to the series. More people need to play the original Doom.

Even the original Doom (By that I mean the game released in 1993) had no shortage on the blood. Mortal Kombat aside, it was probably the game filled with the most blood back in those days. Again, the Demons and Zombies you faced (Not to mention Doomguy himself if you weren't careful [or probably tried to take on the Cyberdemon without the BFG on hand]) regularly exploded into a bloody mess if dealt enough damage. It's tame by today's standards, but there is no doubt that the blood and gore was ALWAYS there. (Note: I am NOT counting Wolfenstein. That game was a reskinned Doom, without the blood and gore.). Doom has always been a bloody, violent game, with foul language being pretty common too.