Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 349: First Party characters after the Fighters Pass

zferolie

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Shantae

Chance - 0%

She's already represented as a spirit. Even while I'm no longer as adamantly on team "spirits deconfirm," I certainly don't think they mean anything good either.

However, the real kicker here is how WayForward immediately rallied fans to get her for DLC, and immediately afterwards had Nintendo announce that all DLC picks would be picked by Nintendo themselves and will not be affected by "fan polls," essentially exposing that WayForward hadn't been contacted for having Shantae as a fighter, and instead was desperately trying to capture popularity once more, as it were lightning in a bottle, to try to grab Nintendo's attention once more.

Even in the case that both of these somehow didn't deconfirm her, I'm also not exactly sure Nintendo would ever want to choose her over nearly any other possible first party or third party character. She's hardly an icon, no matter how hard her fanbase may try to paint her as one.

Want - 0%

I've always thought that indie characters have absolutely no place as playable fighters Super Smash Brothers. That thought of mine hasn't changed, and especially won't change with Shantae.
To be fair, is Bayonetta an Icon? Thats the one argument I feel is super lame for deconfirming fighters.
 
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To be fair, is Bayonetta an Icon? Thats the one argument I feel is super lame for deconfirming fighters.
Bayonetta is absolutely not an icon. I'm not going to act like she is. However, she supposedly has the ballot behind her, in which she was said to have come in 1st in Europe, Top 5 in the US, and 1st worldwide in terms of "realizable" fighters. Considering there's no ballot this time around, popularity likely isn't exactly going to help Shantae whatsoever.

Even if you want to go with the idea that Bayonetta was chosen prior to the ballot, as data in earlier patches of the game suggest, there's still legitimate reason for Nintendo to choose Bayonetta, considering:
Nintendo had lots of reasons to choose Bayonetta aside from solely the ballot, simply because Nintendo had essentially adopted the franchise of one of their own. Shantae hasn't seen anything close to the amount of support from Nintendo that Bayonetta has seen, including the time prior to Bayonetta's Smash inclusion.
 
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Shinuto

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Shantae
Chance: 40% I don't think being spirit de confirms. And her status in the game is similar to Mewtwo and Lucas back during Smash 4

Want: 100% She's a dream pick for me. I think she make a super interesting fighter.
 
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Shantae

Chance: 5%
I know it's a bit iffy on whether spirits deconfirm or not, but I don't think her chances are all that great. With Nintendo making the picks, I really doubt we'll be seeing many, if any, lesser known characters making it as DLC.

Want: 30%
Eh, I can take her or leave her. There are others I prefer, but if she gets in, then that's nice.
 

RileyXY1

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Shantae
Chance: 2%
With Shovel Knight being an AT, the odds of getting an indie character in Smash are bleak.

Want: 10%
I'm not that interested in her.

Nom: Kat & Ana x5
 
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Shantae
Chance: 10%
I don't see it happening. I really don't think indie status matters at all to Sakurai, I just think he/Nintendo won't see her as a big enough character to feel she's worth including.

Want: 96%
My #4 most-wanted. She could make an incredibly fun and unique fighter and would bring some great music with her, too.
 

PeridotGX

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Shantae

Chance: 10%. If we were to get an Indie, it would've been Shovel Knight. And Shovel Knight is an AT, so an Indie character doesn't look that likely.

Want: Abstain,

Noms: Grovyle x5
 

UtopianPoyzin

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I don't feel like Shantae is deserving of being the sole indie representive (because if there is, there will only be one). I personally think that a... certain... character is FAR more deserving of that title. Abstaining.

Nominations: Impa x5
 
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Shantae
Chance: 5%
Even though I think Spirits don't deconfirm fighters,
I don't like her chances as I find indie characters unlikely to DLC compared to third party characters and especially first party characters.

Want: 75%
She is my most wanted indie character.
I think she would have a interesting moveset with her transformations and magic,

Nominations: Boss: Perfect Chaos x5
 

UtopianPoyzin

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Shantae
Chance: 5%
Even though I think Spirits don't deconfirm fighters,
I don't like her chances as I find indie characters unlikely to DLC compared to third party characters and especially first party characters.

Want: 75%
She is my most wanted indie character.
I think she would have a interesting moveset with her transformations and magic,

Nominations: Boss: Perfect Chaos x5
Sooooo close to making the required sentence cut, but you are at only a sentence for chance.
 

StarDustStorm

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Shantae
Chance: 10% - Its okay that she appears in the game as a playable character, but I think Shovel Knight being an Assist Trophy is the Smash Devs adjusting to having Indie characters in Smash. Shovel Knight seems to be the best choice to vote for Indie characters. I think Spirits do nothing against a character's chance and were designed to be for fun, and we don't know how Piranha Plant will be handled in World of Light and if it isn't playable then I'm sure characters that are Spirits in the game will be slightly loosened by more people.
I'm unsure if you can use Spirits outside of the World of Light, but I know they can be used for Amiibos.
Want: 70% - She was my Smash Ballot vote. Its not 100% due to Shovel Knight not being playable which would help her fit in Smash more if she was playable.
Nominations: Porky (Mother) x 5
 
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UtopianPoyzin

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Shantae
Chance: 10% - Its okay that she appears in the game as a playable character, but I think Shovel Knight being an Assist Trophy is the Smash Devs adjusting to having Indie characters in Smash. Shovel Knight seems to be the best choice to vote for Indie characters. I think Spirits do nothing against a character's chance and were designed to be for fun, and we don't know how Piranha Plant will be handled in World of Light and if it isn't playable then I'm sure characters that are Spirits in the game will be slightly loosened by more people.
I'm unsure if you can use Spirits outside of the World of Light, but I know they can be used for Amiibos.
Want: 70% - She was my Smash Ballot vote.
Don't know if you want to nominate or anything, but you also only have a sentence for want.
 
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Crash

Chance: 40%
Things don't look definitive for him either way. He's never had too strong of a relationship with Nintendo, outside of his brief stint as the PS1 mascot, so I don't really seem them picking him. Still, he doesn't have any real strong arguments against him either.

Want: 30%
Another character I have no attachment to. If he gets in,good for his fans, but it wouldn't cost me any sleep should he not make the cut.
 

Sari

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Abstaining completely on Crash.

Nominations: Kat & Ana x5 (I hope it's not too late to edit my nominations back to them)
 
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Crash

Chance: 25%. Iconic character. And unlike most western game characters, has popularity in Japan. He's got a good shot for sure.

Want: 75%. He'd be cool. Although I mainly just played the spin offs like Crash Team Racing and Crash Bash.

Doom Guy Prediction: 17.77%

Nominate All DLC will Be 3rd Party x5
 

StarDustStorm

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Crash

Chance 35%
Activision seemed to have no interest for putting their games on Nintendo Switch consoles, N. Sane wasn't originally going to be on the Switch because someone at Vicarious Visions just ported the first level and they ended up liking it when they saw it. He's not at the level of Spyro obscurity, and he's actually known in Japan. I still feel like Indie characters would of been chosen over him which only has non-playable representation in Smash so far, which seems to be the case when trying to put in a 3rd part character who aren't Jpn devs. He isn't request as much as Banjo though.

Want 50%
I like Crash, and if they are going to put him in Smash, they'll probably make a Jpn Crash alt with a similar case to ROB. Maybe non-Japanese developed franchises will get playable treatment next game.

Nominate: Ninten x5
 
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"Hey plumber boy, mustache man, your worst nightmare has returned!"
Chance: 35%
Want: 100%

Another one of my most wanted characters, placing 4th right behind Banjo, and in front of Bandana Dee. His inclusion would be absolutely legendary, just like Sonic in Brawl. He was one of Mario's biggest rivals in the console market back in the 90's along with Sonic. Just imagine being able to let Mario duke it out with 2 of his biggest rivals at once in the arena. Crash's chances mostly depend on Nintendo's choices. The N. Sane Trilogy was brought to the Switch before Smash Ultimate was announced, so that brings up his chances. "But Crash Bandicoot is owned by Sony, and they've been treating Fortnite players like crap!" Thankfully Sony no longer owns Crash, and he is now owned by Activision, a company that is on good terms with Nintendo. (Also Sony dropped the stubbornness with Fortnite a while ago.) He also has Spyro the Dragon as direct competition, but I feel like Crash is more popular, and would generate more hype and money than Spyro would. He also has an interesting moveset to work with, including his iconic spin attack. I played Crash Team Racing and absolutely loved it as a kid, and it later made me try out the original Crash game. In my top 5 most wanted characters for chances, he places 2nd. Banjo is the most likely, followed by Crash, but Bandana Dee's confirmation as a spirit hurt his chances quite a bit. And of course, Xurkitree and Reaper are dream picks that probably won't happen, so they take 4th and 5th place.

Predictions: Doom Slayer 2.3%

Nominations: Reaper x5
 
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I'm going to be that guy and make the dead "Whoa!" joke.

Chance: 50%. This guy is a total coin flip. One hand pins him as a decently likely character, while the other is that he's pretty unlikely. Everything that's in his favor has a counterpart that isn't good news. I, for one, am totally unsure if he's likely or not, but feel like he gravitates toward the middle of likelihood. I think he could happen, and I'd sooner bet on him than Paper Mario, but I'd bet on Arle or Banjo first. At least he has no competition, since Spyro gets in after and I can't think of any other Activision characters who are big enough names.

Want: 75%. After giving it some thought, Crash Bandicoot is my real third most wanted. While he isn't even at the level of Paper Mario or Banjo (and Arle I'd happily sacrifice Crash for) this orange bandicoot helped shape my, and even my brother's childhood. Not with the PS1 trilogy, but with Wrath of Cortex and Tag Team Racing (guess who had a GameCube and not a PS2 growing up), which hold a place in my heart that cannot be broken today. Plus, getting the Wrath OST and the Twinsanity OST in this game would blow my mind to bits. Crash's return to gaming is probably my highlight of 2016/17. Sorry, Geno, you've become my number 4.

Nominations: the usual. Arle Nadja x 5.

Per my predictions, Doomguy will be lucky to break 5% chance. 5.29% to be precise.
 
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PK-remling Fire

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Crash Bandicoot:

Chance: 50%
Honestly it could go either way for Crash. He's a popular enough 3rd part rep that both hasn't been spirited and has a game port on the switch, so he does have a better shot than most. It mainly just depends on whether or not Nintendo wants him in.

Want: 70%
I haven't really played the Crash games as a kid, but I got N. Sane trilogy a little while back and I'm having a great time with it. Crash seems like an interesting and fun character and I'd like to see him duke it out with Mario and co.

Noms: Assist Trophies becoming fighters x5
 

NukeA6

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Playstation's Rejected Mascot

Chance: 0%
-Yeah he has few games on Nintendo consoles but overall, he barely means anything to Nintendo. He wasn't even special enough to appear in Playstation All-Stars despite being Sony's trademark platformer during the PS1 days. I guess those games after 1999 were that bad.

Want: 5%
-I honestly could care less of the character and I think I'd rather see Dixie, Bandana Dee, and other Nintendo characters I don't want over him. Except Waluigi, Crash has to be at least better than that guy.
 

Sid-cada

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Crash

Chance - 35% - Unlilke Sonic, his rivalry never reach that level of infamy. While he seems somewhat chummy now, I think the N. Sane trilogy port was too late to really affect his chances. He's popular, sure, but I don't think he exactly has that much going for him.

Want - 35% - Not really interested. No attachment, and I would rather have many other third parties instead.


Nominations

Arle Nadja X5
 
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That CTTR loading screen, you know which one I’m talking about.

Crash seems like the character Nintendo would go for if they wanted to break the internet. Nintendo vs. Sega? This is ****ing Nintendo vs. PlayStation, the war that defined the beginning of the 3D era in gaming, and it’s kind of still going on (especially in Japan). Crash has worldwide appeal, which is something not many western characters can claim to possess. He would probably be well received too, yet he’s still the kind of shilling, corporate pick I’m expecting (‘If you like Crash, buy the N. Same Trilogy, now on Switch!’ or the alternative ‘See Activision? We can play nice, now if you could please port Call of Duty to the Switch...’)

Now, do the heads at Nintendo that decided DLC want to break the internet? As corporate as it felt, Smash 4’s DLC was decided by Sakurai (at least, as far as we know). So maybe Nintendo execs actually go ‘You know what? Let’s give the fans what they want!’



As if

Want: 90%
He’s a video game icon, and his games are classics. I actually feel like the score should be lower as I feel his design would slightly clash with the others, but hey, he’s earned it.

Noms: Mach RiderX5
 
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Collision Peramelemorph

Chance: 10%
Crash's closest allies when it comes to being a DLC pick is the N-Sane releases on the Switch, and general popularity. However, those really don't go a long way. Crash might be popular, but he's not the most popular third party choice. The N-Sane remakes... well, despite how good they may be, I'm not sure if they're enough to put him on Nintendo's radar, especially when Crash isn't exactly a faithful series to Nintendo.

Want: 30%
There's really not much I can say about my want for Crash. I've played a few Crash games, and... they're OK, but they're nothing that ever really wowed me. I think I actually have more remembrance of Spyro games than I do Crash. That said, if we got Crash, I wouldn't complain, but I'd still see it an odd choice.

Predictions: Doom Slayer
What can I say but this seems doomed from the start? 8.9%

Nominations: Professor Hector x5
 
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Rayleigh

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Crash Bandicoot

Chance: 10%

When people talk about Crash in Smash, there's a few things to consider:

1. Crash N' Sane Trilogy was announced in 2016. It first came out to the Playstation on June 30, 2017. It then came out on Switch June 29, 2018, and then in Japan in October 2018.
2. Smash Bros Ultimate started closely following the release of Smash 4. The development plan was finished in around December 2015, with the game's creation beginning shortly thereafter. This likely included the DLC 'picks'.

When speaking on the concept of timing, Crash Bandicoot, by virtue of their new game alone, would have missed the cut. With this out of the way, 'relevancy' is a horrible argument for or against a character anyways. The big hurdle that Crash has to deal with is their ownership under Activision, whose relationship with Nintendo is not as strong as other western third parties (I.E. Microsoft and Bethesda) or third parties in general. Between this and the natural licensing fees...and the fact that Nintendo might be focusing largely on their own franchises, what with the character list they gave Sakurai, and Crash isn't 'looking so hot. That said, I do believe that Crash does have a notable fan population in Japan...but as I am not from Japan I cannot confirm this.

Want: 0%

I have no vested interest in the character. If he got in, I might give him a shot; the games were fun enough but not among my favorite. I'd be happy for his fans, though!

----------------------------

Predictions (One Doomy Boi): More than Crash, less than most 'big' third-parties...and especially less than one option from his parent company.
 
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Crash Banooka
Chance: 30%
After Sonic, Crash used to be Mario second biggest rival. And with the recent N'sane trilogy ariving on the Switch it's certainly posssible Nintendo would have the bandicoot as one of the third-party choices. However, Activision might be a tricky company to work with, considering they haven't released any games on the Switch besides the N'sane trilogy and one Skylanders game, we still have yet to see that Spyro port for the Switch. Also Crash apparently might have a problem with his design in Japan, so I don't think he's all that popular over there.


Want: 65%
Have only touched the N'sane trilogy for about five minutes but I do know he's kind of an icon so I wouldn't mind. Still, there's a other cartoony western Third-party I'd prefer to see.


Doomdude: 9.86%

CGI DLC trailers x3
Hollow Knight x2
 
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Crash Bandicoot:

Chance - 15%

Yea he was a gaming icon back in the day, not so much now but Activision doesn't seem to be very invested into the Switch in general. There are other third party characters that are more likely and with Nintendo selecting the fighters I don't expect it to be fully third parties. Also I hear his design is different in Japan? That may complicate things...

Want - Abstain

I have very little connection with the character but I understand he is seen as the icon of the PS1 for many but the truth is I can't give a true want rating without me playing the games.

Nominations: Rhythm Girl x5
 

CaptainAmerica

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Sony’s Would-Be Mascot

Chance: 20%
Want: 0%

It’s a battle of the 90s mascots! Mario! Sonic! That little rat thing on cousin Jamie’s game!

...yeah, when people think of ‘90s era mascots,’ it’s the plumber and the blue blur. The other cartoony characters from other companies were there to try to capitalize off of that rivalry. You know what they say about people who follow the leader...

Not to say Crash doesn't have a fanbase, just that it isn’t at the level of Mario or Sonic. Yes, Sony tried to use him as a mascot, but Sony is more well known for JRPGs like Final Fantasy than unwholesome cartoons. I’d say Crash is more on the level of Banjo - an exclusive, cartoony character from a game with a very 90s cartoon aesthetic and feel. And between Banjo and Crash, Banjo does feel like the better candidate for Smash due to being a Ninty exclusive in his early days.

However, Crash does have a decent Japanese fanbase to prop him up, which along with his popularity in general, may be enough to get him a consideration.

Personally, Crash is another one of those characters who does nothing for me. I’ve never played a bandicoot game, and I’d prefer Banjo for a character of that aesthetic. But realistically, my next choice for a mascot-esque character is Tails.

Nom: more DLC x5
 

UtopianPoyzin

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Abstaining on Crash cause idk anything about him.
Nominatioons: Frog x5
(Frog like the character from Chrono Trigger)
Hmm, that's a name that I haven't heard in a while. I would personally rather have us rate Crono himself than one of the last party members from the game, but what can I say?

CRASHING THE BAND PERFORMANCE

Okay, so the rating never happened... I was too focused on finishing up something I had been working on that I won't have time to finish this rating as well. The time is 12:29 AM EST.

Nominations: Impa x3, [Rerate]: Steve? x1, Urbosa x1 (because)

Doomguy Prediction: 6.2% (I did predictions a while back, but then I never thought they counted anymore so I stopped. But, with the recent prediction winners, I figured I'd start back up again.
 
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Crash

Chance: 15%
Crash has no history with Nintendo. One recent port release after every other console got it hardly screams Nintendo history. I know some people want him in because they see him as a "rival" but I would prefer that every character has some real ties to Nintendo in some way.

Want: 15%
Its been a while since I played a Crash game but I really think that as far as 3rd party characters go he would have one of the least interesting movesets. I could be wrong though and would probably still want him over some of the other meme picks.

Predictions: Doom Slayer
2%

Nominations: Ravio x5
 
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Hmm, that's a name that I haven't heard in a while. I would personally rather have us rate Crono himself than one of the last party members from the game, but what can I say?

CRASHING THE BAND PERFORMANCE

argh, rating to come...
Frog is actually a temporary party member at the beginning of the game.
 

UtopianPoyzin

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Frog is actually a temporary party member at the beginning of the game.
Ehhhhhhh but still...

I can't change your noms. Just saying that Crono will probably garner higher percentages...



Edit: NOBODY POST unless you have something very clever and original to say for the 15000th post. I cant double post now, but i can warn you all. This was primarily a set up. Now, who is going to do the honors?
 
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TCT~Phantom

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Lets ****ing go.


Crash Bandicoot

55% Chance

To me, timing is huge for this one. You see, DLC was likely chosen after the base game and whatnot. I highly doubt that DLC plans were finalized in 2016 for this game. I feel that the DLC timeline would be most likely to be done in 2017. This obviously favors Crash heavily, but even then I feel Crash is a character that we are sleeping on a good bit.

For starters, let me put to rest some of the arguments I have seen against Crash right now.

1. Relationship of Activision with Nintendo.

This in my opinion is kind of a weird point for people to make. Most companies have... mixed relationships with Nintendo already. You could cherry pick evidence for any third party in smash right now and argue that their relationship is difficult or has been in the past. Activision, despite not having the most detailed history with Nintendo, still has a good history. Every Nintendo System except for the Virtual Boy has seen Activision support. Activision is one of the biggest names in video games. They are a giant. Nintendo has even let them use Donkey Kong and Bowser for Skylanders. Trusting a third party with your first party picks is a good showing of support.

2. Timing

To me, timing has always been a weird spot for this. I would say timing affects Crash differently from Rex for one key reason: Crash's games were remakes. Crash was a gaming icon, and the announcement sent waves into the industry. I feel that Rex's timing also was more notable for the base game. I interpret what Sakurai said as a discussion about the base game, rather than a discussion about DLC. I feel that the Mii Costume was a consolation of Rex not being in that wave and not being in the DLC wave 1.

3. Popularity

Crash is a relatively high tier pick for popularity right now. If you go on the train that Spirits deconfirm fighters, then Crash is in a pretty solid spot. However, here is a spot where I feel smash fans miss some things, and we have missed things in the past. Cloud shows that popularity in the general sphere of gaming can superceed smash popularity itself. We often within the Smash community tend to inflate certain characters due to their popularity within our spheres. Smash fans tend to be primarily on Nintendo games. Notice the nostalgia for the N64 on this board. As much as I love Banjo, the Banjo Kazooie N64 games sold around 5 million, and finding figures on the lifelong sales of banjo is hard. Meanwhile Crash has PS1 sales over 15 million, with lifelong sales around 55 million.

Don't take this as as me hating on Banjo. I think Banjo is super likely for this game. But here is the rub: Banjo is seen as likely because he has such a dedicated fanbase within our community that has made him likely. If we had no push for Banjo, he would not be super likely. Meanwhile, Crash is similar to Cloud in the respect that we can all see the logic of his inclusion, but his smash fanbase is not as active or large. I feel that so long as you have popularity and history within gaming itself, you can get away with a smaller smash fanbase.

That being said, people like Crsah. He consistently rounds out top 10s in smash speculation and wishlists. He has a sizable fanbase that has become more vocal after the N Sane Trilogy was announced. I feel that his decently large popularity helps him out. He even is highly popular in Japan. Never underestimate Japanese popularity.


4. "History with Nintendo"

:ultsnake::ultcloud:

Ok but let me not be obtuse on this. This History with Nintendo thing is one of the dumbest things that we as a community have ever latched onto. Out of our third parties, the only ones that I feel you could argue have a strong history on Nintendo consoles are Mega Man and Simon. Maybe Ryu if you push it but I associate him more with arcades. Everyone else is not remembered for their history on Nintendo. They are remembered for their history with gaming in and of itself.

A fun little case study on this is Shovel Knight vs Shantae. One of them is an Assist Trophy, the other is a spirit. One has history as this Indie that appears everywhere, one is an indie that has "history with Nintendo". This is not proof, but it is a fun little thought experiment. Why did Shovel Knight get the AT and Shantae didn't? Because Shovel Knight is a bigger deal than Shantae. Nintendo history be damned.

This arguement should have died ages ago. The fact I see it now is disheartening.


Overall, Crash has a strong resume within gaming history, sizable popularity, a company with a decent relationship with nintendo. and even overseas appeal.

100% Want

I love Crash. I love his games. Honestly Crash is to me what the Playstation is; a cumulation of all the greatest things of the 32 bit era, warts and all.

Crash I first played when I had a PS1 demo disk. I enjoyed the designs of the crash games so much when I was younger.

I did not get into Crash himself until around 2010. I got Birth By Sleep on the PSP, and bought some PS1 Classics on the PSP. Crash was one of them. I fell in love with Crash 2. Honestly it captured that spirit I felt when I played Donkey Kong Country 2. The vibrant worlds, the perfect soundtrack, the charm, the precise platforming, the secrets. It was perfection.

Crash 3 was good as well, I loved playing through that. The varied historical locals were awesome. It made me wonder what else they could do with the time travel idea. Honestly it was great. I love it almost as much as Crash 2.

Crash 1 was difficult for me to love due to how brutal it is, but I did end up growing to love it. The level design of it was superb. I loved how everything looked. For some reason, the bridge levels looked so magnificent to me, even if they were hell.

Even the GBA games were good. I would recommend THA and NTranced. They are pretty dang solid 2D platformers that look good on the GBA.

N Sane was a dream come true. It made Crash 1 less hard to love. It kept everything I loved about Crash 2 and 3. I loved every second of it. I 100%ed it on PS4 and Switch, though I still have some of the relics in Crash 1 left.

I want Crash Damnit. Perhaps more than anything because he opens the door for Spyro. The two are like brothers (only closer). If he helps my most wnated get in someday I will die happy.

Nominating Sephiroth x 5
 
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