Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[RouffWestie]

Cresh
Chance: 1%
Doesn't look very likely. He's popular, but I doubt he's popular enough. I don't see Nintendo picking him over other 3rd parties.
Want: 40%
He's inoffensive at best. Nothing about him is too unique, but he's a bit more imteresting than some of the characters already on the roster.

Nomination: Third-party character from unrepped Company x5
EDITED

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Shantae pre-Crash Bandicoot

200 - 151

Arle Nadja x200

150 - 101

Rhythm Girl x140
Concept: All DLC will be third-party x125

100 - 51

Kat & Ana x100
Nero Claudius (Fate) x100
Grovyle x95
Concept: Stages outside Fighter Pass x90
Concept: More DLC x90
Concept: CGI trailers for newcomers (barring Piranha Plant) x87
Boss: Kracko x85
Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon x85
Mach Rider x85
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x80
Reaper (Overwatch) x80
Professor Hector x74
Lora (Xenoblade) x65
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x65
Impa x62

50 - 25

Reimu Hakurei x50
Hollow Knight x40
Papyrus x35
9-Volt x34
Creeper x29
Concept: All DLC will be first-party x25
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x25
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Concept: Boss Rush x25
Andy (Advance Wars) x25

Under 25

Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Boss: Perfect Chaos x15
Ninten x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Sephiroth x15
Frisk x10
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x10
Decidueye x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Porky Minch x10
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Amaterasu x5
Monokuma x5
Concept: Another joke character x5
Neptune x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3

Boss Rush and Andy command 25 noms.

Our new nominees for the day are the concept of Another joke character and Neptune, with 5 noms each.

Dyllybirdy Just to be clear, you’re nominating the character from Hyperdimension Neptunia, right?

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Shantae pre-Crash Bandicoot

200 - 151

Arle Nadja x200

150 - 101

Rhythm Girl x140
Concept: All DLC will be third-party x125

100 - 51

Kat & Ana x100
Nero Claudius (Fate) x100
Grovyle x95
Concept: Stages outside Fighter Pass x90
Concept: More DLC x90
Concept: CGI trailers for newcomers (barring Piranha Plant) x87
Boss: Kracko x85
Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon x85
Mach Rider x85
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x80
Reaper (Overwatch) x80
Professor Hector x74
Lora (Xenoblade) x65
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x65
Impa x62

50 - 25

Reimu Hakurei x50
Hollow Knight x40
Papyrus x35
9-Volt x34
Creeper x29
Concept: All DLC will be first-party x25
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x25
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Concept: Boss Rush x25
Andy (Advance Wars) x25

Under 25

Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Boss: Perfect Chaos x15
Ninten x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Sephiroth x15
Frisk x10
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x10
Decidueye x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Porky Minch x10
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Amaterasu x5
Monokuma x5
Concept: Another joke character x5
Neptune x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3

Boss Rush and Andy command 25 noms.

Our new nominees for the day are the concept of Another joke character and Neptune, with 5 noms each.

Dyllybirdy Just to be clear, you’re nominating the character from Hyperdimension Neptunia, right?

I didn't actually spend all of my noms on CGI trailers today, gave two to Hollow knight as well.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I didn't actually spend all of my noms on CGI trailers today, gave two to Hollow knight as well.

These aren't noms for today, they're for Shantae's day.

 

[Kotor]

Abstaining on Crash

Boss Rush x5

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Well we made to 15000 messages! (And my 15001 post was late), so to celebrate this momentuous occasion, I have one thing to say.

Dort.

 

[Jomosensual]

Abstaining on Crash

Noms:
Gen 8 pokemon x5

 

[Door Key Pig]

Crash

Chance - 35% - Unlilke Sonic, his rivalry never reach that level of infamy. While he seems somewhat chummy now, I think the N. Sane trilogy port was too late to really affect his chances. He's popular, sure, but I don't think he exactly has that much going for him.

C'mon, even as DLC??

Chance: 15%
Crash has no history with Nintendo. One recent port release after every other console got it hardly screams Nintendo history. I know some people want him in because they see him as a "rival" but I would prefer that every character has some real ties to Nintendo in some way.

Yeah because Pacman, Ryu and Snake were totes highly Nintendo-applicable...

There are other third party characters that are more likely and with Nintendo selecting the fighters I don't expect it to be fully third parties.

Ooh, what are some examples?

 

[shocktarts17]

Yeah because Pacman, Ryu and Snake were totes highly Nintendo-applicable...

I would agree that Snake doesn't have much history either but Pac-Man and Ryu have both been on Nintendo consoles pretty much since they made the jump to console games.

And even then Snake has more history with Nintendo than Crash does so that hardly helps Crash's chance.

 

[3DSNinja]

You realize that Crash had a ton of games on GBA and DS, rjght?

 

[Door Key Pig]

I would agree that Snake doesn't have much history either but Pac-Man and Ryu have both been on Nintendo consoles pretty much since they made the jump to console games.

And even then Snake has more history with Nintendo than Crash does so that hardly helps Crash's chance.

Id kinda argue Crash being on similar relevancy then; they've all had a bunch of titles on Nintendo consoles, but pretty much every other system too. Beyond that, Pacman had uh, the Mario Kart crossover appearances I guess? Street Fighter 2 was huge and SNES happened to be one of the systems it was on? Metal Gear had some Nintendo versions of his games but so did Crash...

 

[NukeA6]

You realize that Crash had a ton of games on GBA and DS, rjght?

And how many cared about them? The last Crash game that anybody remembered before NSane Trilogy was Crash Team Racing back in 1999 because it was a great Mario Kart clone. No one ever talks about those handheld Crash games and they're more obscure than even the Klonoa games on the GBA.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Crash Bandicoot
Chance: 20%
Crash IS iconic...heck he was as big as Mario back in his hayday in my country, and he has popularity in Japan unlike Spyro(RIP poor baby dragon, what did they do to you?)
Unfortunately I don't see Sakurai approaching a western company for some reason and I'm not sure why. Maybe the fact Rayman, who has gotten in as a trophy before still didn't make the cut makes me sceptical about Crash's chances for some reason.

Want: 85%
Honestly I'm a bigger fan of Spyro, but Crash was a BIG, BIG deal back in the day when a young YoshiandToad was growing up. I'm not massively keen on third parties, but I'd make an exception for ones as big a name as Crash Bandicoot.

Heck, him, Spyro, Bomberman, Rayman and Lara Croft are characters I think of when I think big gaming icons from yesteryear who are on Smash's current third parties levels.

Plus...let's not forget this was one of the first leaks ever;

A pretty damn perfect set of characters for me. My two Playstation faves and my most wanted boy. Was definitely on the Crash hype train at that point,

Much like Rayman, Crash Bandicoot would be a day one purchase if he made it to DLC for me.

 

[Cetus]

Crash Bandicoot

Chance-60%
I see him as being fairly likely. With plenty of would be insanely likely DLC out of the way, and with five slots to fill, plus no veterans AND Crash getting the N-Sane trilogy on the Switch with the Spyro games likely on the way, I'd say Crash's chances are pretty damn good. He also has some popularity on his side too, which always helps.

Want-50%
Never played the Crash games, but I do think he'd be a very interesting fighter and a welcome addition to the Smash bros lineup. The goofy, colorful, and creative universe would lend itself to fun moveset potential. My unfamiliarity does dock a few points though. Lemme try the N-Sane trilogy and then I'll probably raise it.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ken satisfaction
72.48%

Incineroar satisfaction
51.12%

Piranha Plant satisfaction
56.60%

Spirits satisfaction
46.67%

World of Light satisfaction
74.93%

Of all satisfaction ratings, World of Light was the highest and Spirits the lowest. Out of the fighters, Ken was highest and Incineroar lowest.

Melmetal
11.48% Chance, 23.15% Want
Melmetal didn't get predictions.

Edelgard
25.85% Chance, 25.66% Want
Winner of predictions was Ze Diglett with 25.00%

Dixie Kong
22.57% Chance, 67.42% Want
Winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi with 21.52%

Bandanna Dee
55.58% Chance, 82.48% Want
Winner of predictions was @DaUsernamewith 58.00%

Rex
5.95% Chance, 38.08% Want
There were no predictions for Rex due to scheduling mishaps. Also, a lot of people's scores were affected by the fact that he was rated as Rex and not Rex & Pyra. He's seen as being basically disconfirmed.

Geno
18.10% Chance, 43.03% Want
Winner of predictions was ProfPeanut with 18.00%

Banjo
21.97% Chance, 62.00% Want
Winner of predictions was @FancySmashwith 21.00%. Unlike Rex, people did infer that Banjo would come with Kazooie.

Rayman
36.86% Chance, 59.88% Want
Winner of predictions was Sid-cada with 35.46%

Steve
55.69% Chance, 23.89% Want
Winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi with 56.26%. Worth noting that Steve was the character with most 0% rating in Want, by a lot.

Erdrick
24.52% Chance, 34.06% Want
Winner of predictions was Sari with 23.02%

Slime
36.25% Chance, 53.10% Want
Winner of predictions was Troykv with 35.60%. It's worth noting that Erdrick had a high number of abstentions for Want compared to Slime, as people just don't seem to know him.

Sora
15.87% Chance, 38.64% Want
Winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi by virtue of being the lowest prediction, with 20.75%

Sans
3.85% Chance, 29.09% Want
Winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi with 4.12%. Seen as an impossibility by most, with some even asking if it was a joke day.

Master Hand
33.75% Chance, 61.88% Want
As expected, no predictions. Nobody guessed this one before its day.

Shantae
7.17% Chance, 48.96% Want
Winner of predictions was @DaUsernamewith 5.00%. Like Rex, she's seen as basically disconfirmed and like Sans, many cited her being an indie as being a complete chance-killer.

Steve is seen as the likeliest character overall, with Bandanna Dee as the likeliest first-party. Rex is seen as the least likely, and Sans as the least likely third-party.

Bandanna Dee is also the most wanted character, Banjo is the most wanted third-party, Melmetal is the least wanted and Steve is the least wanted third-party.

Front page will be done tomorrow. GoodGrief741 came in clutch and helped out on this one.

 

[PeridotGX]

Exploding Bandicoot

Chance: 20%. His inclusion makes sence, he was a Playstation Mascot (likely leading to high Ballot results). I just don't see it happening for some reason.

Want: Abstain

Noms: Grovyle x5.

(Glad we finally got results. Glad that Dee's so high.)

 

[shocktarts17]

You realize that Crash had a ton of games on GBA and DS, rjght?

Id kinda argue Crash being on similar relevancy then; they've all had a bunch of titles on Nintendo consoles, but pretty much every other system too. Beyond that, Pacman had uh, the Mario Kart crossover appearances I guess? Street Fighter 2 was huge and SNES happened to be one of the systems it was on? Metal Gear had some Nintendo versions of his games but so did Crash...

Yeah I messed that up, I took a quick look at the series list on Wikipedia because I didn't remember there being any and got through the first 3 sections and didn't notice the last one that had all the gameboy games.

I stand by saying that him being slightly more relevant than the least relevant character is hardly winning him any points, especially if you believe that Snake is only in as a favor to Sakurai's friend which Crash wouldn't have going for him.

 

[Hollywoodrok12]

Crash:

Chance: 10%. Since he’s 3rd party, he isn’t deconfirmed like the spirits are. Sure, he’s Sony but we’ve seen Crash get on the Switch and Cloud get into Smash, so I don’t see it as an impassable obstacle. I’m not expecting any fan-favorites, but him and Banjo have the best chances.

Want: 50%: Same as Banjo, Geno and the like. Any fan-fave getting in would be a win in my book, and Crash (or Banjo) would fit in with the whole Mario Vs Sonic Vs Mega Man Vs Pac-Man thing.

Nominations: No Fan-Favorites x5

 

[Opossum]

Crash time. Woah!

Chance: 30%
I think he's got great odds. The Switch port of N. Sane Trilogy has done really well, from what I remember. Plus Crash has a small bit of history on Nintendo consoles. Activision has also been kinda buddy-buddy with Nintendo recently, with Diablo and Skylanders coming to mind. Plus despite being western, Crash has notability in Japan. Crash Bandicoot 2 was the first western game to sell a million copies in Japan alone.

Want: 100%
Crash Bandicoot was the first game I ever played, way back when on the original PlayStation. To say he has a special place in my heart is an understatement.

 

[PapillonXtreme]

Crash Bandicoot

Chance: 25%
I believe Crash has what it takes to be playable in Smash. He has the N-Sane Trilogy released in the Switch, he's also iconic and had a couple of Nintendo releases. The only problem about Crash is whether Activision would allow them to have Crash in the game or not. Not to mention, being a Sony mascot also hurts it's chances, but not a whole lot. Still, Crash has enough things to go for as DLC in Smash, it's just up to Activision whether they'll accept him into Smash or not.

Want: 90%
Crash Bandicoot was one of my first games played on the original Playstation since childhood and I really loved the character. I wouldn't mind him being the game as DLC, so that we can see an epic battle between Mario, Sonic, Pac-Man and Crash.

Nominations:
3rd Party Character from an unrepped company x5

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Shantae pre-Crash Bandicoot

200 - 151

Arle Nadja x200

150 - 101

Rhythm Girl x140
Concept: All DLC will be third-party x125

100 - 51

Kat & Ana x100
Nero Claudius (Fate) x100
Grovyle x95
Concept: Stages outside Fighter Pass x90
Concept: More DLC x90
Concept: CGI trailers for newcomers (barring Piranha Plant) x87
Boss: Kracko x85
Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon x85
Mach Rider x85
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x80
Reaper (Overwatch) x80
Professor Hector x74
Lora (Xenoblade) x65
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x65
Impa x62

50 - 25

Reimu Hakurei x50
Hollow Knight x40
Papyrus x35
9-Volt x34
Creeper x29
Concept: All DLC will be first-party x25
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x25
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Concept: Boss Rush x25
Andy (Advance Wars) x25

Under 25

Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Boss: Perfect Chaos x15
Ninten x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Sephiroth x15
Frisk x10
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x10
Decidueye x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Porky Minch x10
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Amaterasu x5
Monokuma x5
Concept: Another joke character x5
Neptune x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3

Boss Rush and Andy command 25 noms.

Our new nominees for the day are the concept of Another joke character and Neptune, with 5 noms each.

Dyllybirdy Just to be clear, you’re nominating the character from Hyperdimension Neptunia, right?

This might be a bit controversial, but what is a joke character? I know what a joke character is to me, and every other person has an idea of what a joke character is to them, but what makes a character a joke? Is it Piranha Plant? Sure its surprising to see him playable, but would one only consider him to be in the game "as a joke?" I don't think he is a joke, and neither does Sakurai (who doesn't simply "do" joke characters. Every character has a reason). I believe that the term "joke character" (and the fact that "another" is part of it) is simply too broad and subjective that it can't suitably be rated. However, that's just my take on it.

UtopianPoyzin the update will have some stuff for base game but will primarily be for the past few days. Updating the base game is less of a priority right now given that well, it happened. The archive will be having an update soon, but it is less of a priority then current scores. I have been sitting on a decently big update, but I was just getting more scores done for it. Most likely there will be one update for the archive tomorrow and one later in December.

The other big update for the front page will be the day archive. That one will be fixed up soon as well.

Rules part will be updated to include that ATs are not up for ratings. This is after the community here voted on what would and wouldn’t be fair game. If any assist trophy gets confirmed playable, this rule is voided immediately and we will be doing emergency ratings for a few ATs after the slated week is done.

I wish I would do more informative posts about the characters rated, but to be honest our schedule has allowed me to coast a bit. Dragon quest was the only one where people in this community would go literally who. Everyone else I assume most people would know. Expect more detailed descriptions of rated characters on future days.

One thing I was interested in doing is having people post music from a series on a characters day. I will post some KH music later, and will post for most franchises during this dlc schedule, but some franchises I will be out of my element on. If anyone feels strongly about a character, please post music on their day!

Finally, the noms list will be added to the noms post soon. Probably around day 202. I am waiting to flesh it out a bit more and to shave off some more days.

Also, it is now Day 202. I don't think we add in the new noms on THIS day, and maybe wait 2 or 3. However, separating the top 7 from the rest of the pack might be a good thing to do at some point.

Ken satisfaction
72.48%

Incineroar satisfaction
51.12%

Piranha Plant satisfaction
56.60%

Spirits satisfaction
46.67%

World of Light satisfaction
74.93%

Of all satisfaction ratings, World of Light was the highest and Spirits the lowest. Out of the fighters, Ken was highest and Incineroar lowest.

Melmetal
11.48% Chance, 23.15% Want
Melmetal didn't get predictions.

Edelgard
25.85% Chance, 25.66% Want
Winner of predictions was Ze Diglett with 25.00%

Dixie Kong
22.57% Chance, 67.42% Want
Winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi with 21.52%

Bandanna Dee
55.58% Chance, 82.48% Want
Winner of predictions was @DaUsernamewith 58.00%

Rex
5.95% Chance, 38.08% Want
There were no predictions for Rex due to scheduling mishaps. Also, a lot of people's scores were affected by the fact that he was rated as Rex and not Rex & Pyra. He's seen as being basically disconfirmed.

Geno
18.10% Chance, 43.03% Want
Winner of predictions was ProfPeanut with 18.00%

Banjo
21.97% Chance, 62.00% Want
Winner of predictions was @FancySmashwith 21.00%. Unlike Rex, people did infer that Banjo would come with Kazooie.

Rayman
36.86% Chance, 59.88% Want
Winner of predictions was Sid-cada with 35.46%

Steve
55.69% Chance, 23.89% Want
Winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi with 56.26%. Worth noting that Steve was the character with most 0% rating in Want, by a lot.

Erdrick
24.52% Chance, 34.06% Want
Winner of predictions was Sari with 23.02%

Slime
36.25% Chance, 53.10% Want
Winner of predictions was Troykv with 35.60%. It's worth noting that Erdrick had a high number of abstentions for Want compared to Slime, as people just don't seem to know him.

Sora
15.87% Chance, 38.64% Want
Winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi by virtue of being the lowest prediction, with 20.75%

Sans
3.85% Chance, 29.09% Want
Winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi with 4.12%. Seen as an impossibility by most, with some even asking if it was a joke day.

Master Hand
33.75% Chance, 61.88% Want
As expected, no predictions. Nobody guessed this one before its day.

Shantae
7.17% Chance, 48.96% Want
Winner of predictions was @DaUsernamewith 5.00%. Like Rex, she's seen as basically disconfirmed and like Sans, many cited her being an indie as being a complete chance-killer.

Steve is seen as the likeliest character overall, with Bandanna Dee as the likeliest first-party. Rex is seen as the least likely, and Sans as the least likely third-party.

Bandanna Dee is also the most wanted character, Banjo is the most wanted third-party, Melmetal is the least wanted and Steve is the least wanted third-party.

Front page will be done tomorrow. GoodGrief741 came in clutch and helped out on this one.

Aww man, I REALLY thought that the BWD gang would hold off the top spot for long enough, which is why I was too late to write up an essay in his favor. He would have gotten super high scores from me, but he was beaten out in chance... by.... Steve... from Minecraft, who is also the least wanted. Bandana Dee would have gotten 90% and 100% for chance and want if I wasn't lazy at the time, which makes me really disappointed that I thought that the positivity for his case would be enough to sustain him... guess I gotta nominate a rerate then...

 

[RileyXY1]

Crash

Chance: 50%
I'm mostly 50/50 on this one. He is a popular character with a remastered collection on the Switch, but I don't know whether or not Activision would be on board to put a character in Smash.

Want: 10%
I'm not that interested in him.

Nominate: Kat & Ana x5

 

[DaUsername]

Crash Bandicoot
Chance: 25%
Crash is a platforming icon who definitely deserves a spot in Smash. But his series was also on an extended hiatus until recently, and if Rex is anything to go by it might be too recent. He's also owned by a western company, so that might be a problem.
Want: 100%
I've been a fan of the Crash series for years. Having him in Smash would be a dream come true.

Doomguy prediction: 17.77%
Does getting predictions right still give you extra noms? Because if so, then
Noms: Porky Minch x15

 

[MegaTailsFreak]

Crash Bandicoot

Chance: 30%
Crash has popularity.
Crash has had games on Nintendo consoles such as Wrath Of Cortex on the GameCube, a few games on the GBA and N. Sane Trilogy on the Switch.
I just don't think he's likely going to happen.
I'm not completely sure if Activision would want Crash in Smash.

Want: 90%
Crash is my favorite PlayStation hero growing up.
I played him and Spyro a lot as a kid.
I think Crash would make a better Smash character than Spyro because he's got more to work with.

Nominations: Boss: Perfect Chaos x5

 

[Troykv]

Crash Bandicoot

Chance: 20%

Being a gaming icon is always a plus; the franchise suffers from some hiatus problems thought so he isn't exactly the first thing people think as a gaming icon nowadays; still he's a popular character that should be took in consideration anyway.

Want: 75%

I like his series; his games are quite fun; and were part of my childhood.
___________

Predictions:

Doomguy the Doom's Guy: 14.4%

Nominations:

Reimu Hakurei x10

 

[GoodGrief741]

This might be a bit controversial, but what is a joke character? I know what a joke character is to me, and every other person has an idea of what a joke character is to them, but what makes a character a joke? Is it Piranha Plant? Sure its surprising to see him playable, but would one only consider him to be in the game "as a joke?" I don't think he is a joke, and neither does Sakurai (who doesn't simply "do" joke characters. Every character has a reason). I believe that the term "joke character" (and the fact that "another" is part of it) is simply too broad and subjective that it can't suitably be rated. However, that's just my take on it.






Also, it is now Day 202. I don't think we add in the new noms on THIS day, and maybe wait 2 or 3. However, separating the top 7 from the rest of the pack might be a good thing to do at some point.



Aww man, I REALLY thought that the BWD gang would hold off the top spot for long enough, which is why I was too late to write up an essay in his favor. He would have gotten super high scores from me, but he was beaten out in chance... by.... Steve... from Minecraft, who is also the least wanted. Bandana Dee would have gotten 90% and 100% for chance and want if I wasn't lazy at the time, which makes me really disappointed that I thought that the positivity for his case would be enough to sustain him... guess I gotta nominate a rerate then...

To me, a joke character is one that nobody in their right mind would consider to be a reasonable candidate to make into a character, so somebody who doesn’t have fans behind them, or isn’t relevant and/or important within a relevant franchise, or has ever been considered important. Like, with Piranha Plant, you got nothing there except lolz factor and shock factor, that’s a joke character to me.

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

To me, a joke character is one that nobody in their right mind would consider to be a reasonable candidate to make into a character, so somebody who doesn’t have fans behind them, or isn’t relevant and/or important within a relevant franchise, or has ever been considered important. Like, with Piranha Plant, you got nothing there except lolz factor and shock factor, that’s a joke character to me.

I can agree that Piranha Plant gave the community a huge shock, and it was quite funny at that. But what is the criteria? What made Piranha Plant so funny, that "lolz factor"? Sure, he's a plant, but Ivysaur almost is a plant as well, so that part can't be the case. Is it because he's a standard enemy? Yoshi is a standard creature as well, and the one in Smash doesn't seem to have anything to make him stand out in particular from the rest of the Yoshis. So what is it, and does it hold true across all examples (that I'm about to ask you to give). Finally, what are some examples of joke characters, and why?

My point is that "joke character" is subjective.

Finally, the noms list will be added to the noms post soon. Probably around day 202. I am waiting to flesh it out a bit more and to shave off some more days.

Also, it is now Day 202. I don't think we add in the new noms on THIS day, and maybe wait 2 or 3. However, separating the top 7 from the rest of the pack might be a good thing to do at some point.

I kind of sandwiched that, don't know if you saw it or not... sorry.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I can agree that Piranha Plant gave the community a huge shock, and it was quite funny at that. But what is the criteria? What made Piranha Plant so funny, that "lolz factor"? Sure, he's a plant, but Ivysaur almost is a plant as well, so that part can't be the case. Is it because he's a standard enemy? Yoshi is a standard creature as well, and the one in Smash doesn't seem to have anything to make him stand out in particular from the rest of the Yoshis. So what is it, and does it hold true across all examples (that I'm about to ask you to give). Finally, what are some examples of joke characters, and why?

My point is that "joke character" is subjective.



I kind of sandwiched that, don't know if you saw it or not... sorry.

The thing that makes Piranha Plant a joke character is that it’s not a character. Yoshi isn’t a generic creature (there’s a Yoshi individual and there’s a Yoshi species), but even then Yoshi has headlined his own game series and has a personality. Piranha Plant doesn’t have a personality, because it’s not a character. If a fairy from Zelda joined as a character, that’d be a joke.

 

[Hollywoodrok12]

The thing that makes Piranha Plant a joke character is that it’s not a character. Yoshi isn’t a generic creature (there’s a Yoshi individual and there’s a Yoshi species), but even then Yoshi has headlined his own game series and has a personality. Piranha Plant doesn’t have a personality, because it’s not a character. If a fairy from Zelda joined as a character, that’d be a joke.

I feel like it's a different thing that varies from game to game. However, I kinda see them often being confused with retro reps, since they're both obscure picks that nobody asked for nor expected, typically from the older eras, although some could be seen as retro reps to some extent. Here's my take on the joke fighters:

64:
Melee: / (I'm unsure about Melee, since Sakurai has stated that are retro reps, while Pichu may have been added because he was easy to implement as a clone of )
Brawl:
Smash 4:
Ultimate:

 

[GoodGrief741]

I feel like it's a different thing that varies from game to game. However, I kinda see them often being confused with retro reps, since they're both obscure picks that nobody asked for nor expected, typically from the older eras, although some could be seen as retro reps to some extent. Here's my take on the joke fighters:

64:
Melee: / (I'm unsure about Melee, since Sakurai has stated that are retro reps, while Pichu may have been added because he was easy to implement as a clone of )
Brawl:
Smash 4:
Ultimate:

I don’t agree that those are joke fighters, because if you take away the surprise aspect, they still hold up.

Jigglypuff was very popular due to the anime, Game & Watch and ROB are important aspects of Nintendo and videogame history, Pichu reps Gen 2 and Baby Evolutions, and Wii Fit is huge. Piranha Plant has nothing like that.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Dixie Kong
22.57% Chance, 67.42% Want
Winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi with 21.52%

Steve
55.69% Chance, 23.89% Want
Winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi with 56.26%. Worth noting that Steve was the character with most 0% rating in Want, by a lot.

Sora
15.87% Chance, 38.64% Want
Winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi by virtue of being the lowest prediction, with 20.75%

Sans
3.85% Chance, 29.09% Want
Winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi with 4.12%. Seen as an impossibility by most, with some even asking if it was a joke day.

Man, I was on a roll! Four predictions the closest!
Just to make sure, after how long it's been, we are still keeping the five extra noms per correct prediction, yes? I've scored big if that's the case.

 

[ProfPeanut]

Crash Bandicoot

Chance: 45% -> 10%
The February Direct where Crash Bandicoot...crashed public Nintendo-base consciousness on the same day that Smash was revealed is long behind us, and so Crash's chances once again look about as unlikely as ever. He's going to have to fight for this spot against Rayman and Banjo and every other platformer who has a decent history to boast.

It doesn't help that with the N. Sane Trilogy firmly behind us, all eyes on Crash now wonder about his future. Indeed, Crash's next test is proving that he's not just going to fall back into hibernation, because otherwise Nintendo would just be highlighting an "enemy" character that wouldn't even be giving them any new platformer games to sell. If the goal is to find someone connected to the N64 era, then Banjo's just the better choice. If the goal is to highlight the PS1's strongest exclusives at the time, then Metal Gear Solid and Final Fantasy 7 already accomplish those--it's no pressing need, especially when those two franchises fared much better than Crash Bandicoot did.

While Crash migrated to Nintendo platforms shortly after leaving Naughty Dog, I don't think anyone will say that the games that followed match the glory days of Crash's original trilogy. Sakurai might pick Crash for his place in history, but we don't know if Nintendo sees the bandicoot in the same way, let alone whether they think he'd be a mutually-profitable choice.

Want: 84% -> 30%
While this is a far cry from the optimism that I initially gave to Crash, the fact is that there's a bear and bird out there who need the spot more than anyone. I just don't see more than one platforming animal character fitting into the five that we're getting, and if I absolutely had to pick one, I'd go with Banjo.


Prediction:
Doomguy: 11%

Nominations:
Andy x10

 

[GoodGrief741]

To the winners of predictions, you get five extra nominations per win. You can use those all now, or split them up between a couple of days, or save them for a rainy day. I’ll be keeping a list of who and how many.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Lets ****ing go.


Crash Bandicoot

55% Chance

To me, timing is huge for this one. You see, DLC was likely chosen after the base game and whatnot. I highly doubt that DLC plans were finalized in 2016 for this game. I feel that the DLC timeline would be most likely to be done in 2017. This obviously favors Crash heavily, but even then I feel Crash is a character that we are sleeping on a good bit.

For starters, let me put to rest some of the arguments I have seen against Crash right now.

1. Relationship of Activision with Nintendo.

This in my opinion is kind of a weird point for people to make. Most companies have... mixed relationships with Nintendo already. You could cherry pick evidence for any third party in smash right now and argue that their relationship is difficult or has been in the past. Activision, despite not having the most detailed history with Nintendo, still has a good history. Every Nintendo System except for the Virtual Boy has seen Activision support. Activision is one of the biggest names in video games. They are a giant. Nintendo has even let them use Donkey Kong and Bowser for Skylanders. Trusting a third party with your first party picks is a good showing of support.

2. Timing

To me, timing has always been a weird spot for this. I would say timing affects Crash differently from Rex for one key reason: Crash's games were remakes. Crash was a gaming icon, and the announcement sent waves into the industry. I feel that Rex's timing also was more notable for the base game. I interpret what Sakurai said as a discussion about the base game, rather than a discussion about DLC. I feel that the Mii Costume was a consolation of Rex not being in that wave and not being in the DLC wave 1.

3. Popularity

Crash is a relatively high tier pick for popularity right now. If you go on the train that Spirits deconfirm fighters, then Crash is in a pretty solid spot. However, here is a spot where I feel smash fans miss some things, and we have missed things in the past. Cloud shows that popularity in the general sphere of gaming can superceed smash popularity itself. We often within the Smash community tend to inflate certain characters due to their popularity within our spheres. Smash fans tend to be primarily on Nintendo games. Notice the nostalgia for the N64 on this board. As much as I love Banjo, the Banjo Kazooie N64 games sold around 5 million, and finding figures on the lifelong sales of banjo is hard. Meanwhile Crash has PS1 sales over 15 million, with lifelong sales around 55 million.

Don't take this as as me hating on Banjo. I think Banjo is super likely for this game. But here is the rub: Banjo is seen as likely because he has such a dedicated fanbase within our community that has made him likely. If we had no push for Banjo, he would not be super likely. Meanwhile, Crash is similar to Cloud in the respect that we can all see the logic of his inclusion, but his smash fanbase is not as active or large. I feel that so long as you have popularity and history within gaming itself, you can get away with a smaller smash fanbase.

That being said, people like Crsah. He consistently rounds out top 10s in smash speculation and wishlists. He has a sizable fanbase that has become more vocal after the N Sane Trilogy was announced. I feel that his decently large popularity helps him out. He even is highly popular in Japan. Never underestimate Japanese popularity.


4. "History with Nintendo"



Ok but let me not be obtuse on this. This History with Nintendo thing is one of the dumbest things that we as a community have ever latched onto. Out of our third parties, the only ones that I feel you could argue have a strong history on Nintendo consoles are Mega Man and Simon. Maybe Ryu if you push it but I associate him more with arcades. Everyone else is not remembered for their history on Nintendo. They are remembered for their history with gaming in and of itself.

A fun little case study on this is Shovel Knight vs Shantae. One of them is an Assist Trophy, the other is a spirit. One has history as this Indie that appears everywhere, one is an indie that has "history with Nintendo". This is not proof, but it is a fun little thought experiment. Why did Shovel Knight get the AT and Shantae didn't? Because Shovel Knight is a bigger deal than Shantae. Nintendo history be damned.

This arguement should have died ages ago. The fact I see it now is disheartening.


Overall, Crash has a strong resume within gaming history, sizable popularity, a company with a decent relationship with nintendo. and even overseas appeal.

100% Want

I love Crash. I love his games. Honestly Crash is to me what the Playstation is; a cumulation of all the greatest things of the 32 bit era, warts and all.

Crash I first played when I had a PS1 demo disk. I enjoyed the designs of the crash games so much when I was younger.

I did not get into Crash himself until around 2010. I got Birth By Sleep on the PSP, and bought some PS1 Classics on the PSP. Crash was one of them. I fell in love with Crash 2. Honestly it captured that spirit I felt when I played Donkey Kong Country 2. The vibrant worlds, the perfect soundtrack, the charm, the precise platforming, the secrets. It was perfection.

Crash 3 was good as well, I loved playing through that. The varied historical locals were awesome. It made me wonder what else they could do with the time travel idea. Honestly it was great. I love it almost as much as Crash 2.

Crash 1 was difficult for me to love due to how brutal it is, but I did end up growing to love it. The level design of it was superb. I loved how everything looked. For some reason, the bridge levels looked so magnificent to me, even if they were hell.

Even the GBA games were good. I would recommend THA and NTranced. They are pretty dang solid 2D platformers that look good on the GBA.

N Sane was a dream come true. It made Crash 1 less hard to love. It kept everything I loved about Crash 2 and 3. I loved every second of it. I 100%ed it on PS4 and Switch, though I still have some of the relics in Crash 1 left.

I want Crash Damnit. Perhaps more than anything because he opens the door for Spyro. The two are like brothers (only closer). If he helps my most wnated get in someday I will die happy.

Nominating Sephiroth x 5

My write up. Day will end tongiht around 10 pm est.

 

[Lukingordex]

Crash Bandicoot

Chances: 40%
I think he has a good shot. He was even recently featured in a nintendo video in japan where they show some aspects of certain games, and nintendo has already stated in the march direct that they do recognize him as a gaming icon. It's there, you can check it.

Want: 100%
My most wanted addition.

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

TCT~Phantom ... day end ... I would but if you are online, then I want to make it official ...

 

[TCT~Phantom]

UtopianPoyzin i was on the phone.

Day over, rate doomguy predict Travis touchdown.

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

UtopianPoyzin i was on the phone.

Day over, rate doomguy predict Travis touchdown.

my bad then, I apologize...

 

[EarlTamm]

Doomguy
Chance: 50%
I am half and half right now, as I want to see who is the first DLC character before I lean one way or another. He is certainly iconic and has a great history and relationship with Nintendo. There was even an article where Bethesda confirmed that they and Nintendo did at one point talk about Smash, but it is not known for what.
Want: 80%
I think he would make for a great character gameplay wise, and would probably be one of the best characters to represent the FPS genre, something that does not have much representation in Smash.

 

[Ridrool64]

At Doom's Gate is awesome.

Chance: 10%. Doomguy is more or less the granddaddy of FPS characters, or at least he's around that ballpark, and is still relevant to this day. That's where the positives end: first, he has stiff competition in the Dragonborn. Second, his series is hilariously gory, and unlike Bayonetta it's pretty much the big draw of the game, so either he's too mature for the game or has to lose part of what makes him him. Kinda like Sora, except to a much more notable degree. Don't think he'd be one of Nintendo's choices.

Abstaining on want.

Arle Nadja x 5, Travis Touchdown: 10.25% prediction.