Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 340 - Lara Croft (Tomb Raider)

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Rhythm Heaven Girl

Chance: 1%

-First party character that's not really enticing for DLC.
-It's likely all DLC will be 3rd party.

Yada, pretty much for every 1st party character ratings for me.

Want: 5%

-Would have prefered RH in Base game.
-Would rather have Chorus Kids or Marshal.

All DLC will be 3rd party Prediction: 75.77%

Nominate DLC Story Expansion x5
 
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Oct 1, 2008
Messages
581
Rhythm Girl

Chance: 19%
I don't see her having much better of a chance than the likes of Chorus Kids, even if she isn't locked to a single microgame like most other Rhythm Heaven candidates. The real problem is trying to get Rhythm Heaven a character in the first place, which seems to have eluded it in Ultimate despite being more-or-less poised to get one. At least she's not just one game out of many.

Want: 40%
Rhythm Heaven's quirkiness is apparent, and its niche is comfortable. While there's little I can say against it, I'm not convinced that it really warrants a character, let alone that it deserves to represent rhythm games in general.


Prediction:
Concept: All DLC will be third-party: 28%

Nominations
Hat Kid x5
 
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Rhythm Girl
Chance: 5%

I think it's pretty clear Rhythm Heaven missed the boat again but they do have several spirits so its not like they've been forgotten. Rhythm Girl is a spirit so probably isn't getting in on this round, but she might have an edge over current favorites the Chorus Kids purely because she would be easier to design without being three people.

Want: 40%
I like rhythm games well enough and she would be a fine representative of them but I'm not a huge fan of including characters just to check off a box. That said she's still a first party character with a decent fan base and I wouldn't be upset to see her get in, I just have others I'd like to see more.

Prediction: All 3rd party DLC 45%
Lotta pessimism round these parts.

Nominations: Ravio x5
 

Flyboy

Smash Master
Joined
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Rhythm Girl
Chance:
5%
I can't believe Rhythm Heaven doesn't have a rep. I thought this would be the game we finally got something, even an assist trophy. It's one of the last major first-parties without a rep. However, with the main contenders as spirits and DLC looking to be all third-party or "hype" I'm not sure RH fits. Now, it's worth noting that Rhythm Girl isn't a Spirit so score one for the Spirits Deconfirm crowd, but neither is Tibby who was the main face of Megamix, the latest RH game that came out during the time of the Ultimate project plan. Talk about blank slates all you want, but Tibby would function very similarly to Rhythm Girl, and is a more important character to boot. The competition is tough.

Want: 80%
Rhythm Heaven is wonderful. Fantastic series. I want a rep period. Rhythm Girl is one of the ones I want the least but I do think she has a cute design. The thing is, generally speaking, all RH reps would ideally operate the same with moves taken from every minigame. The only differences would be the personal touches taken from their own games, such as Karate Joe's karate or the Chorus Kids potentially having a three-beat timing or Rhythm Girl having tap moves. My personal RH want is the Reporter & Wrestler, but I feel like Tibby may be the best choice. Karate Joe and Chorus Kids may be known because of the Smash bubble (and Chorus Kids did interestingly get an online icon, potentially hinting that they were planned as assist trophies), but in the end any rep is a good rep. Rhythm Heaven for Smash!

Nominations: Style Savvy Rep x5
 

Sari

Smash Champion
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Concept: All DLC will be third party

Chance: 55%
Joker is third party and a recent leak makes me think the second character will be third party as well. With only three characters left in the season pass I think there's a decent chance for the rest of them to be third party as a way to bring in a ton of new and unrepresented franchises into Smash. However there's still a chance we could get a first party character like someone from Three Houses or any other Nintendo game.

Want: 0%
Celica is my most wanted DLC character. Having all of the DLC be third party would automatically kill her chances along with other characters I want like Andy, Tetra, Hilda, Dixie, and Kat & Ana to name a few (not to mention characters currently in AT hell like Ashley, Waluigi, and Lyn). While there are a ton of third party characters I wouldn't mind to see in Smash, the only ones that I'm actively rooting for (that I can think of off of the top of my head) are Quote, a DQ character, and an SNK character.

Hollow Knight chance prediction: 1.35%

Nominations:
Concept: SNK rep x5
 
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Been waiting for this.
Why all 5 characters should be third-party:

Chance: 95%-Okay, I've got quite my good chunk of reasons to expect this. Not as big as the average "champion nominator" (as in, the people who nominate something and make a big post once the time comes to rate that thing) comment, but still quite long:
*It's my weakest argument, but I honestly think it may have an impact. Let's go back and look at Smash 4's DLC. Ryu, Cloud and Bayonetta all had the same content and price as the ones that will be available here: a character, a stage and a bunch of songs; all for 6$, of course that’s just the individual Price and not the Wii U+3DS bundles, but it’s not like that will ever happen here. The fact that they are all third-party should probably be small a sign of that.
*Now, let's check what Nintendo themselves got to offer next year on the game department, to see if there's anything to look after: Animal Crossing, Fire Emblem: Three Houses, Pokémon Gen 8, Daemon X Machina and Yoshi's Crafted World. With all due honesty, I beg to see what characters do these games can really offer, but I'm going to cover that better in the next argument.
*Remember when I said I had something to say about Tails that I held back specifically for this? Well, here it is: every character has to offer a stage and songs. Sonic already has not one, but two stages, and decent selection of songs to represent his franchise, hence part of why I don’t see the two-tailed fox happening (though I’d lie if I said there aren't some good Sonic songs absent from the game like With Me or the Crush 40 version of Seven Rings in Hand). If we're going with Nintendo characters or even other character-represented franchises in general, I'm honestly having a hard time thinking about their availability. What can you give Bandana Dee to justify the bundle? Or Porky (which is why I don't see him happening)? Or Sylux, since there’s no existing Metroid Prime 4 gameplay footage as of this date? Hell, let's return to Smash 4 again, who was the only Nintendo newcomer? Oh right, that was Corrin, and he only came with a pair of songs for an existing stage, which is in my honest opinion, what should be done with that kind of newcomers. I can only think of three characters from existing franchises that could offer that kind of deal are Sephiroth (or any other Final Fantasy character, really), Chun-Li and Elma, and that's only because both of their games have more than enough music to let creativity flow through my mind. Also, I didn't think of it back then, but that's another reason why I don't see Rex happening, if they wanted him as a full-fledged character, then they shouldn't have included XC2 songs in the game. Most possible third-party newcomers wouldn't suffer this problem, because there's a lot of material available on those regards. And now that I mentioned Rex...
*If leakers and theories are to be believed (which I do), Mii costumes are compensating for the character's otherwise complete absence from the game. So no Lip, no Rex, no Saki, and so on. Rex's more so, because the whole point of it is to make people feel like they're using the actual character; bringing him later on in the pass would just ruin its purpose.
*This is technically cheating, but I want to bring another fighting game to this: Injustice 2. Way back in 2016, when we barely knew anything about the game aside from some characters, Ed Boon was asked about bringing guest characters into the game, and this is what he said:
I always think there’s a novelty to it and there’s a certain amount of people who think that when they see a guest character that it took the slot of a DC character that they wanted to have, but you know, Scorpion in Injustice was the most downloaded of all the characters. There was a coolness and a novelty factor to seeing the mixing of the things. Alien and Predator in Mortal Kombat X were the most downloaded of those, so I would be surprised if we didn’t do any of that.
Basically, he says that guest characters are attractive and that they're best-sellers, which is something I agree with. Don't believe me? Go look at what happened with Cloud or the Ninja Turtles, it's clear these characters were attractive to the general public. Of course, we don't have proof to know if guests are as best-selling in Smash as they are in NRS' games, but reactions quite tell who impressed people more. Man, it's weird how no one never asks which DLC character has sold the most, even though it could be a very important factor for speculation and possible additions.
*And then, there's just the overall idea that Nintendo wants these characters to be "must-buys" and bring a whole new level of fun. Where's the fun on another Pokémon or Fire Emblem character who solely exists to persuade people into buying their new game entries? Clearly not something people will be interested in after the whole Corrin fiasco.
The only reason why I'm not giving it a 100% chance is because irony is the biggest ***** in life and twists can happen.

Want: 100%-Hmm, let me take a look at what Nintendo can offer for once, including characters rated here (keep in mind they’re just opinions and not arguments):
Another Pokémon: Man, I love Pokémon to death, but in Smash, they’re all so meh to me. I can grab them up every here and then and have fun with ‘em (Pichu and Incineroar mostly), but nothing that I ever turn into a main. Don’t get me wrong, I would’ve loved to have Gardevoir or Darkrai as playable, both being my favorite pokémon, but it’s because of that same feeling that I wasn’t bothered by their deconfirmation at all.
Another Fire Emblem: Please no. I’ve had enough of them, in fact, many had it. Sakurai thought that as well. They’re all ****ing boring, aesthetics and gameplay-wise. Just because the next protagonist will have an axe doesn’t make it any better or more interesting than the guy with the K9999 arm, who is considered to be one of the worst characters ever included in the series.
Sylux: So he has a health-draining laser and his own morph ball, right. Why do we even think this guy is going to be on Metroid Prime 4 again? Oh yes, it was because of a small cameo at the end of that dumpster fire of a game that is Federation Force.
Porky: Giygas didn’t have a spirit either, so that’s not an excuse. What about the stage and songs issue I mentioned? New Pork City already exists, not to mention, there were only 2 new remixes: Magicant and Fourside, so no good reason to expect them to do more for DLC.
Adeleine: Never played Star Allies, but I sure as hell played Kirby 64, and I assure you she isn’t any more memorable than Zero-Two, or the fact that you land into some kind of post-apocalypthic Earth. After you beat her drawings (because you don’t actually fight her), all she does is draw Maximum Tomatoes for you.
And now, let’s look at some third-party characters on the other hand, and for the sake of originality, I’ll refrain from bringing Banjo, Geno, or any of the characters in the 5chan rumour (even though they illustrate things just as well as the ones I’ll mention):
Crash Bandicoot: Platforming icon. Available on Nintendo. Used to be a big rival to Mario. May not be very fun to play as, but people (including myself) will sure as hell welcome him with open arms just for the fact that he’s now going to be able to fight him for the first time.
KOS-MOS: Yeah, those religious references are always going to be her greatest wall (words of a catholic man here), but if there’s anything I can say about her on the gameplay standpoint (using Project X Zone and Card Sagas Wars as reference), is that she’s incredibly fun to play, and also more visually appealing than Rex and his blades.
Neku Sakuraba: May still need to play TWEWY, but I can sure as hell say I’d love me a Jack-of-all-trades carácter, pulling all sorts of moves in the same vein as Mega Man, but probably more fun in the long-run (because the more human/anime-esque guests are overall better than the cartoony mascots).
Morrigan Aensland (yeah, had to overlook one): She may not be the most fun Darkstalkers character, but she’s still its “mascot”, and a prominent Capcom character. If it means content from that franchise, I’ll take it.
Nightmare: We don’t have a medieval knight in the game yet, and with such a cool design, brutal moves and a really cool-looking sword, he’d stand out very well next to the other playable swordsmen.
All these guys still look more interesting than those five Nintendo characters combined. it's what I honestly see in terms of quality. Would I still buy a Nintendo character? Yes, but I wouldn't care. "But they gotta be promotional", that's what the 5chan rumour showcased, and it still pulled an amazing Nintendo-less line-up.

Nominations: Dante x5
 
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Artix

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jul 9, 2018
Messages
253
All 3rd-Party DLC

Chance: 50%
With Joker's inclusion, I think the DLC Fighters will mostly be 3rd-party characters for the most part. Though, I still haven't ruled out the possibility of a first-party character made it as DLC, since there's Gen 8 Pokemon and Three Houses to consider. If the second DLC character happens to be another 3rd-party character, then the chances boosts further, if not, it would still be higher since Nintendo most likely aim for promotion and hype.

Want: 50%
I actually don't mind an all 3rd-Party DLC, to be honest. Some of my most wanted characters are 3rd-parties anyway and I'm hoping one or two made it in as DLC. However, I feel like they should at least include one 1st-party character since it's Nintendo we're talking about. You'd think they put at least 1 Nintendo character in there instead of having it all 3rd-Party.

Hollow Knight Predictions: 2.38%

Nominations:
Arthas Menethil (Warcraft) x5
 

CureParfait

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Dec 26, 2018
Messages
148
Concept: All DLC Characters are third party

Chance- 0%
I think Nintendo would put some first party characters in the Fighter's Pass. I also think that there'll be more first party characters than third party ones. I won't be too surprised if it turns out Joker is the only third party character DLC.

Want- 0%

Since Darkrai is my most wanted for DLC, I would rather see something like Assist Trophy/Pokeballs becoming DLC than all third party DLC despite there are some third party characters I want to see.
 
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Sep 22, 2012
Messages
5,790
5 Third parties and ****ing Piranha Plant

Chance: 100%
It’s going to happen, and we all know it’s going to happen. Reggie’s comment about characters being ‘new to Smash’ and ‘characters you wouldn’t expect to be in Smash’, Joker being emblematic, and the fact that most established series have stages, and the only non-established series that could have been DLC has its main characters as an Assist and a Mii (I’m talking ARMS, of course). Nothing is pointing towards first party characters. The only ones that would make sense are advertising picks as those would definitely come with new maps and stuff. However, Nintendo wants to make this a must-buy, and thus will likely avoid another Corrin.

Want: 40%
It all depends on the execution. We could end up getting Steve, Saber, and two other characters I don’t care about. Or we could end up getting Ryu Hayabusa, Phoenix Wright, Banjo-Kazooie and Sora. Likewise, DLC could theoretically contain characters like Bandanna Dee, Dixie Kong, or even an upgraded AT, but it could also have a Gen 8 Pokémon, a Three Houses rep. However, I docked some points because I still kind of see Smash as Nintendo first, because the glaring omissions on Nintendo’s side can’t be ignored and because I just like variety.

I also want to mention that if this pans out and Nintendo does another all third party newcomers for DLC, then I’m going to start disliking third parties that get in base roster. If Nintendo’s characters aren’t worthy of DLC then they might as well fill the base roster, as that’s their only shot.

Nominations: Prof HectorX5
 
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Sep 22, 2012
Messages
5,790
Grovyle (Pokémon Mystery Dungeon) x272
Reaper (Overwatch) x261
Concept: Stages outside Fighter Pass x260
Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon x256
Concept: More DLC x255
Concept: SNK rep x205
Sephiroth x185

200 - 151

Dark Matter x160
Ravio x155
Professor Hector x155


150 - 101

Ezio Auditore da Firenze x150
Dante x145
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x135
Kat & Ana x135
Andy (Advance Wars) x135
Shy Guy x135
Concept: World of Light expansion x135
Bonkers (Kirby) x130
Arthas Menethil (Warcraft) x125
Concept: 100 characters (counting Echo Fighters and Miis/Pokémon Trainer as 3) x125
Ryota Hayami x120
Maxwell (Scribblenauts) x117
Amy Rose x115
Concept: Boss Rush x115
Sly Cooper x115
Poochy x115
Vaati x115
Concept: Style Savvy rep x115
Q*Bert x114
Brash the Bear x110
Magikarp x109
Impa x101
Porky Minch x101


100 - 51

Tracer x100
Monster Hunter x100
Cranky Kong x100
Nathan Drake x100
Concept: Microsoft Rep x100
Aloy x100
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x100
Concept: Undertale rep x100
Hat Kid x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x95
Lora (Xenoblade) x90
Boss: Kracko x85
9-Volt x69
Spyro x57
Freddi Fish and Luther (Freddi Fish) x55

50 - 25

Creeper x47
Papyrus x41
Frisk x40
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Ninten x30
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25

Under 25

Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Kamek x20
Earthworm Jim x20
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Ryu Hayabusa x15
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Decidueye x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Amaterasu x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Tora and Poppi x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x10
Brian (Quest 64) x10
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Monokuma x5
Concept: Another joke character x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Concept: Free updates (Splatoon-style) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Black Shadow x5
Marx (Kirby) x5
Saber (Fate) x5
Tetromino x5
Reporter & Wrestler x5
Noctis Lucis Caelum x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Eight (Dragon Quest) x3
Boss: Sans x2
Adeleine (Kirby) x2
Urbosa x1
Stahl x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1

Reaper warps past Stages outside Fighter Pass and takes second place. Stages will have to do with third.

Ravio and Professor Hector sneak past 150 noms.

Freddi Fish and Luther swim to 50 noms.

Today’s newcomers are the mouthfuls Reporter & Wrestler and Noctis Lucis Caelum, with 5 noms each.
 
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Oops! All guest characters!
Chance: 50%
It could go either way. With Nintendo approving Joker it
seems this is the way the DLC will be heading. Using the Fighter Pass to strengthen the bond they have with the third-parties. Still, we did get one first-party newcomer last time. It was one of the ****tiest choices they could've made but it counts, so I can still see them trying to use characters like Poochy or Sylux to promote their games. Or ad in fan favourites who still have a future like Bandana Dee or Elma. (assuming their spirits don't deconfirm, they don't IMO)

Many people like to bring up Reggie's statement at TGA and see all third-parties as a lock. I'll try to soften that by saying:
  1. While he did say the characters would be new to Smash he didn't say the same for the franchises they come from.
  2. Most people watching TGA probably have a very different mindset than us when it comes to characters they expect in the game. He likely was speaking to the more casual side of the people who purchase Smash Bros. While we might see characters like Elma or the Chorus kids or Bandana Dee as possible candidates, they might never have expected them.
  3. Reggie is just a spokesman. His words might not exactly have to line up with what the higher ups at Nintendo are planning.
Want: 0%
I'm not opposed to having guest characters in Smash Bros and there are still a few third-parties I'd like to see, but they would really overdo it they did this. At the end of the day, this is still a Nintendo game. It would be pretty dumb to make already have the pass up for sale without giving the people a heads up for a major detail like that. Especially if the DLC will completely end after the fighter pass. Seriously, there exist more first-party crowdpleasers than just Ridley, K.Rool and Chrom.

Hollow Knight: 2.02%
100 characters x5
 

perfectchaos83

Smash Champion
Joined
May 31, 2018
Messages
2,008
Chance: 100%

So long as we are only talking about the currently known Fighter Pass. Past that, I'd say that the chances for first parties go up. But the 5 that we know about are definitely going to be all 3rd party.

Want: 25%

There's 3rd parties I want, Like Erdrick, Who I'm finally excited to see may have a chance in Smash. Other than that, I don't particularly need more 3rd party. I'd rather round out the last bit of Nintendo favorites.
 

Among Waddle Dees

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Mar 23, 2017
Messages
107
Only Third-Party DLC

Chance: 70%. While I sincerely doubt Reggie's quote meant this, the possibility that Nintendo (Sakurai) chose the paid DLC and disregarded any of their properties is a bit high. Joker could very well be the pavement for this idea, although I think it's too early to say for sure. As for whether I think this is a good thing...

Want: 0%. ABSOLUTELY NOT. Almost all of Smash 4's biggest problems are in some way tied to the DLC scandal, and having Corrin as the only first-party newcomer severely hindered an already flawed lineup. So imagine the pure frustration that would occur if EVERY DLC character was from an outside company, leaving the remaining inner series untouched. Not only does that mean that Nintendo (Sakurai) learned nothing from 4, but that they actively don't care about their original audience. I mean, it's not like I don't have a few dream third-parties, but they all pale in comparison to my desire to seek out potential Nintendo characters. This should not be disproportionately bigger than a Nintendo crossover.

Nominations:
Adeleine (Kirby) x5 (Tempted not to do this again, but I guess the new year reset the votes, so...)
 

NotAPro Bro

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Dec 10, 2018
Messages
264
Chance: 100%, Sakurai loves hype, and I'm pretty sure he would do something like this. Plus, it'll make up the fact there was only 1 3rd party newcomer (Two if you count the inferior of Richter, which is Simon)
Want: 100% Rayman, Beat, Freddi Fish, Master Chief, somewhat kinda will accept Banjo and Kazooie. So yea basically most of my most wanted are 3rd party.




Nominations:
Freddi Fish and Luther x5
 
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Messages
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All DLC characters are 3rd party
Chance: 50%

Trying to avoid letting total pessimism and bias get in the way of my chance score I think I could see it going either way and I don't have a strong leaning one way or another yet. I think this fighters pass will most likely be majority 3rd party but I could see where they wanted to slip one of their promotional characters in alongside the other big names and assume most everyone will still get them because they want the other 4 but I could also see them wanting to use each slot to bring something new to the table. I'm sure they're planning to bring at least one big name fan-favorite in but with options like Geno and Banjo they could still do that while being all 3rd party.
Of course if we get a second wave of DLC this drops down to like 2% because I'm sure they would want to get in on some of that DLC action themselves and they could justify their characters since they already did 5 3rd party fighters.

Want: 15%
There are a very small permutations of 3rd party fighters that I would be genuinely excited for all 5 of them but they do exist so I can't give this a zero. Like GoodGrief741 GoodGrief741 said if DLC becomes the 3rd party spot I would then expect them to stop adding them to the base game to make room for Nintendo characters.

Prediction: Hollow Knight 2.1%
Nominations: Ravio x5


Want: 100%-Hmm, let me take a look at what Nintendo can offer for once, including characters rated here (keep in mind they’re just opinions and not arguments):
Another Pokémon: Man, I love Pokémon to death, but in Smash, they’re all so meh to me. I can grab them up every here and then and have fun with ‘em (Pichu and Incineroar mostly), but nothing that I ever turn into a main. Don’t get me wrong, I would’ve loved to have Gardevoir or Darkrai as playable, both being my favorite pokémon, but it’s because of that same feeling that I wasn’t bothered by their deconfirmation at all.
Another Fire Emblem: Please no. I’ve had enough of them, in fact, many had it. Sakurai thought that as well. They’re all ****ing boring, aesthetics and gameplay-wise. Just because the next protagonist will have an axe doesn’t make it any better or more interesting than the guy with the K9999 arm, who is considered to be one of the worst characters ever included in the series.
Sylux: So he has a health-draining laser and his own morph ball, right. Why do we even think this guy is going to be on Metroid Prime 4 again? Oh yes, it was because of a small cameo at the end of that dumpster fire of a game that is Federation Force.
Porky: Giygas didn’t have a spirit either, so that’s not an excuse. What about the stage and songs issue I mentioned? New Pork City already exists, not to mention, there were only 2 new remixes: Magicant and Fourside, so no good reason to expect them to do more for DLC.
Adeleine: Never played Star Allies, but I sure as hell played Kirby 64, and I assure you she isn’t any more memorable than Zero-Two, or the fact that you land into some kind of post-apocalypthic Earth. After you beat her drawings (because you don’t actually fight her), all she does is draw Maximum Tomatoes for you.
Oh man here I am getting all ready to fight about your post and then I see this,

Want: 100%-Hmm, let me take a look at what Nintendo can offer for once, including characters rated here (keep in mind they’re just opinions and not arguments):
Fine I guess I can let you have wrong opinions as long as they aren't arguments lol.
 
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Mario Party 3 in Smash Bros as every character

Chance: 50%. It's a coinflip. Leaks say yes, other leaks say no. We only have 3 remaining, we still have 3 remaining, and while we don't know who number 2 is, more likely than not it's a third party. Personally, I only believe we're getting three new series, but that doesn't eclipse the possibility of two stacked third party series.

Want: 90%. More chances for Arle = More chances to reach Smash Nirvana. Not 100% because of Paper Mario.

Sly Cooper x 5, and I dunno, Hollow Knight can have a 8.25% chance?
 
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Chance: 10%
Four characters left, if we take the chance for it being a third party as 50%, then 0.5*4 is around 6%. I think it has a bigger chance than that, but it'd still be unlikely for all of them to be third party.

Want: 10%
I doubt I'd really like all of them and I think the shock factor isn't gonna be enough to carry most of the third parties thrown around.
Things like Master Chief and DOOM Slayer are cool for the potential, but get mostly brought up to topple Snake/Cloud and be a shock inclusion in the same vein. Plus, no first party would kill the chances of quite a few of my favs such as Bandee and Porky

Ravio x5

What's a Hollow Knight? 6.543% I suppose
 
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Joined
Nov 21, 2018
Messages
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Location
Indiana
Chance: 10%
Four characters left, if we take the chance for it being a third party as 50%, then 0.5*4 is around 6%. I think it has a bigger chance than that, but it'd still be unlikely for all of them to be third party.

Want: 10%
I doubt I'd really like all of them and I think the shock factor isn't gonna be enough to carry most of the third parties thrown around.

Ravio x5

What's a Hollow Knight? 6.543% I suppose
I think I'm in love. That said can you add a second sentence to your Want reasoning so your Ravio nominations count?
 
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RIP Xurkitree... But hello Reaper, Banjo, and Crash!
Chance: 65%
Want: 75%

Knowing the direction Nintendo is taking with Joker and their DLC, I wouldn't be surprised if the DLC is all third party. There is the chance of having a few first parties becoming playable that are missing spirits, such as Sylux, Porky, Giygas, Rhythm Girl, and Adeleine, but I'm not sure they would cause much hype outside of Porky and Giygas. I would be really excited if this was the case however, and despite Xurkitree being first party, it probably wouldn't happen anyway. A big chunk of my most wanted are third party such as Banjo, Crash, and Reaper. (Though I think Tracer will take the Overwatch slot.) Either that, or we could get stupid characters such as Steve, Sans, Jonesy, and dare I say it: FREEDI THE FISH... (She's going in my least wanted after that stock icon comes out...) But I'm not too worried about this, because Sakurai and his team are trying to cause as much hype as possible, and I'm excited to see what comes with this fighters pass.

Hollow Knight: 3.72%

Reaper x5
 
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All DLC is 3rd party

Chance: 50%

Nintendo's choosing the DLC this time, and there's a good chance that they could use this opportunity to build up relations with third parties. Think about it for a second... Joker could have been chosen to build up relations with Atlus, as they've been partners with Nintendo for a while. Wouldn't be surpised if we got a character from companies Koei Tecmo, or maybe another Bandai Namco rep or something like that... Third party games are an important factor that Nintendo used to lack for a while, maybe getting a company's character in, and building up relations, could drive the company to make more games on Nintendo consoles

Want: 90%

This would be a nice outcome for me, assuming a couple of my most wanted are third parties (Steve, Phoenix Wright etc.). That, and it's always cool to see guest characters in fighting games...

Hollow Knight Prediction: 5.67%

Nominations: Reporter and Wrestler x5
 

Flyboy

Smash Master
Joined
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Messages
3,551
Location
Dayton, OH
All Third-Parties
Chance:
90%
With Smash 4's DLC, we really only got one-and-a-half first-parties as original DLC. Corrin was both promotion for Fates and a way to add a Manakete to the series. Bayonetta was a big "get" for Nintendo and a major Wii U name and at least among my friends she was very highly-requested. Outside of that we got Ryu and Cloud, so it's definitely looking like the third-party prediction is a likely one. Of course, you never truly know. Certain first-parties, like Elma for example, can bring a new stage, new music, and surprising new mechanics to Smash, so I don't want to give this a 100%. However, if we consider what the general public finds "hype", it isn't going to be in lesser-known Nintendo characters but rather in big name franchises joining the battle.

Also, I'm just saying, I HIGHLY doubt we will see another Corrin situation so Edelgard doomsayers need to, like, stop, and Sylux hasn't done anything yet and as mentioned earlier those two couldn't exactly bring the whole package with them unlike a totally unrepped franchise. At least Poochy could bring a Crafted World stage.

Want: 75%
I mean, two of my biggest wants are Style Savvy and Elma, so I'd be foolish to give this anything above 75%. However, so many of my craziest wants are third-party, like 2B and Phoenix Wright, and my most-wanted, Joker, was also an impossible hype third-party so why not? I feel like as long as it's not the one character I'm wholly against I'll love any DLC character or learn to love them. I just think a lot of my most-wanted outside of the wildest first-parties are third and that's pretty cool. I mean, you could convince me to buy a whole Capcom or Street Fighter pack with how much I love those characters. Anything to make gaming's greatest crossover even greater. Besides, characters like Phoenix or Travis Touchdown or Neku may be third-party, but they're so heavily Nintendo that to me they'd add to the "Nintendo crossover" feel of the game.

Nominations: Style Savvy Rep x5
I believe this ties her up with Ryota which means I'm gonna have fun alternating my votes now.
 
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Also, I'm just saying, I HIGHLY doubt we will see another Corrin situation so Edelgard doomsayers need to, like, stop, and Sylux hasn't done anything yet and as mentioned earlier those two couldn't exactly bring the whole package with them unlike a totally unrepped franchise. At least Poochy could bring a Crafted World stage.
While I don't think Edelgard is fairly likely I think you're underestimating Sylux quite a bit. Sylux has already been a playable character so he's not brand new, and Prime 4 is arguably going to be their biggest drop in 2019 if we get it this year so it's not like anything related to that won't have hype, especially considering how much hype just seeing the title by itself caused. I think at the moment he is probably 100% the forerunner in the promotional Nintendo pick. Coming up with a stage and music surely wouldn't be terribly difficult with Prime 4 surely having new locations and music.
 

Flyboy

Smash Master
Joined
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Messages
3,551
Location
Dayton, OH
While I don't think Edelgard is fairly likely I think you're underestimating Sylux quite a bit. Sylux has already been a playable character so he's not brand new, and Prime 4 is arguably going to be their biggest drop in 2019 if we get it this year so it's not like anything related to that won't have hype, especially considering how much hype just seeing the title by itself caused. I think at the moment he is probably 100% the forerunner in the promotional Nintendo pick. Coming up with a stage and music surely wouldn't be terribly difficult with Prime 4 surely having new locations and music.
Yeah but he's lame

All the hunters are so lame. Trace is the only non-lame one and even he's kinda wack. Metroid Prime Hunters sure is a game that...happened.
 
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Yeah but he's lame

All the hunters are so lame. Trace is the only non-lame one and even he's kinda wack. Metroid Prime Hunters sure is a game that...happened.
lol okay I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree there, I thought all of the hunters looked so BA and I welcome seeing more of them in any and all places.
 

SPEN18

Smash Ace
Joined
Nov 1, 2018
Messages
602
Location
MI, USA
All Third-Party DLC

Chance: 75%
It's pretty likely due to what we've seen with the DLC in 4 and Ultimate so far. They clearly view third party crossovers as the best way to sell the DLC. I won't go higher because a single first party character would prevent this from happening, and you can't count out the home team completely.

Want: 0%
It's not a guarantee that a completely third party DLC would cause me to not buy any DLC, but it's a possibility. There are a number of third parties I would buy, like Banjo, Lloyd, Rayman, and a handful of others. I give zero percent because no third party is really at the top of my list of requests for Smash, and a DLC that goes full third party is unlikely to give me more than one or two characters that really fit my fancy. I still view third parties as guests, and there are a number of Nintendo franchises that I'd like to see get in the game.

Noms: Andy x5
 

CaptainAmerica

Smash Champion
Joined
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Messages
2,830
Location
New York
All-Guest Guest Pass

Chance: 90%
Want: abstain

Here’s one of those major examples of where Smashboards lives in an echo chamber apart from the rest of the world.

Yes, there are loads of purists out there who think Smash should be Nintendo only. I know, I used to be one of them. There are also people who see the potential in the side characters from various Nintendo franchises.

But here’s the quick reality check: as much as you may not like 3rd party guests, they’re the ones who bring the hype.

Case in point

That’s the reaction video for the E3 direct. Check out the reactions for each vet as they’re revealed - some Nintendo characters got a lot of noise (mostly those with new designs like Link or ones who’d missed an installment)...but all of the third parties had them going nuts. And these are Smash fans - they cheered the ICs and chanted “nerf” for Bayo.

There are loads of third parties who could get in, and DLC ensures they’re optional to anyone who doesn’t want them. But the hype they deliver is incredible, so I’d expect them to continue on this route. There are exceedingly few first party characters who would be able to drive that level of hype - certainly not the waifu of the week in some unreleased game or the mysterious missing Spirits in highly region-specific games.

Now for want: that’s tough. Like I said, I used to be pretty anti third parties (except Sonic - his history is so entwined with Nintendo, it makes more sense for him to be in than not). Snake was a literal who for me. With Sm4sh, Mega and Pac were acceptable (even though Pac bores me and his stage is up with Hanenbow and 75m for the worst stage ever award). Sm4sh DLC was awkward for me. Yes, I knew Ryu, Cloud, and Bayo, but I’d never played any of their games and really wasn’t a fan of them in the first place.

After all of that, though, it did make me start considering third parties I’d like to see. I play games a lot, but I stick to only a few series, so I don’t know too many characters. Also, there seems to be a heavy PlayStation bias for Smash third parties (for obvious reasons), and I’ve got an XBox. As such, most third parties suggested don’t excite me (of the 1.8 we know about, they’re both literal whos for me from generes I’m not really into, so I’ll have to see their gameplay before I decide if I need them). So am I hyped about third parties? Not unless I know them, and there’s a good chance I don’t. But do I want Nintendo fourth-string characters instead? ...not really.

But I’ve only got two characters I want to see at this point. If either gets in, I’ll be completely happy with anything. But if this DLC round goes and gives me five characters I’ve never heard of (or worse, ones that I actively don’t want because they serve as blocks to the ones I so), yeah, I’m not gonna be hyped and I may just save my money.

Nom: More DLC x5
 
Joined
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Messages
986
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All-Guest Guest Pass

Chance: 90%
Want: abstain

Here’s one of those major examples of where Smashboards lives in an echo chamber apart from the rest of the world.

Yes, there are loads of purists out there who think Smash should be Nintendo only. I know, I used to be one of them. There are also people who see the potential in the side characters from various Nintendo franchises.

But here’s the quick reality check: as much as you may not like 3rd party guests, they’re the ones who bring the hype.

Case in point

That’s the reaction video for the E3 direct. Check out the reactions for each vet as they’re revealed - some Nintendo characters got a lot of noise (mostly those with new designs like Link or ones who’d missed an installment)...but all of the third parties had them going nuts. And these are Smash fans - they cheered the ICs and chanted “nerf” for Bayo.

There are loads of third parties who could get in, and DLC ensures they’re optional to anyone who doesn’t want them. But the hype they deliver is incredible, so I’d expect them to continue on this route. There are exceedingly few first party characters who would be able to drive that level of hype - certainly not the waifu of the week in some unreleased game or the mysterious missing Spirits in highly region-specific games.

Now for want: that’s tough. Like I said, I used to be pretty anti third parties (except Sonic - his history is so entwined with Nintendo, it makes more sense for him to be in than not). Snake was a literal who for me. With Sm4sh, Mega and Pac were acceptable (even though Pac bores me and his stage is up with Hanenbow and 75m for the worst stage ever award). Sm4sh DLC was awkward for me. Yes, I knew Ryu, Cloud, and Bayo, but I’d never played any of their games and really wasn’t a fan of them in the first place.

After all of that, though, it did make me start considering third parties I’d like to see. I play games a lot, but I stick to only a few series, so I don’t know too many characters. Also, there seems to be a heavy PlayStation bias for Smash third parties (for obvious reasons), and I’ve got an XBox. As such, most third parties suggested don’t excite me (of the 1.8 we know about, they’re both literal whos for me from generes I’m not really into, so I’ll have to see their gameplay before I decide if I need them). So am I hyped about third parties? Not unless I know them, and there’s a good chance I don’t. But do I want Nintendo fourth-string characters instead? ...not really.

But I’ve only got two characters I want to see at this point. If either gets in, I’ll be completely happy with anything. But if this DLC round goes and gives me five characters I’ve never heard of (or worse, ones that I actively don’t want because they serve as blocks to the ones I so), yeah, I’m not gonna be hyped and I may just save my money.

Nom: More DLC x5
I think your point about owning an Xbox so not caring about the Playstation 3rd parties perfectly illustrates why a lot of people aren't very excited about the DLC being all 3rd party, if all you own is Nintendo then why would you care about them adding characters from games you would never be able to play? I think the series being represented on Nintendo should be a minimum requirement for 3rd parties because otherwise it feels like they're telling their most loyal customers (the ones who can only get one console and chose Nintendo) that they care more about appealing to the fans of other consoles than their own fans.

That said I think you and Nemuresu Nemuresu bring up good points about guest characters bringing more hype and I don't think that is something you can ignore. I especially like Nemu's quote from the Injustice developer because I remember the hype when the turtles showed up in Injustice 2, it really speaks for itself. I just think it's hard to acknowledge that whats best for the series might be stuff you don't care about, especially if you're still hoping for the "fourth-string characters" as you put because they come from games you do care about and enjoy and 3rd party DLC would eliminate them all from the running.
 
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D

Deleted member

Guest
15TH PARTY

Chance :
Given that Joker was the first character announced, and leaks are suggesting the second DLC character is also third-party, and Reggie’s wording, I think this is pretty likely. You have to remember, Nintendo still has a hand in DLC, and third-parties are ultimately the money-makers. There aren’t many first party characters left that I think would really make headlines like a third-party would. Even last game, 3 out of 4 new DLC characters where third-party and likely sold the best, with Corrin being used as a promotional pick. There are some first-party characters I’d say still have a chance such as maybe a Fire Emblem character or Sylux, but I’d say this is pretty likely. Maybe the first-parties will be saved for a second DLC pass.
65%

Want:
I mean, this is a bit hard to judge. There are certainly some third-parties I think would be cool picks like Erdrick, Doomguy or Banjo, but there are also some I probably wouldn’t be super huge fans of like Steve. There are still some first-party characters I think really should be added though such as Dixie, so I can’t rate this too highly.
40%

Noms: Ezio X5

gaming's greatest crossover
Puzzle and Dragons would like a word with you.
 
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Third Party only, No Nintendo, Final Destination.

Chance: 95%
With Reggie's words and any Nintendo character worth a damn(bar Porky and possibly Sylux) currently stuck in the potential Smash limbo that is Spirits I'm not feeling confident we'll get anything Nintendo. Plus most people in Smash communities seem enamourerd exclusively with third parties of recent.

Want: 0%
Yeah, I'm not gonna lie here. I like Spyro and Crash Bandicoot and absolutely love Tails(he'd be the only one I'd bother buying a whole third party fighters pass too), but if I'm perfectly honest third parties aren't why I play Smash. All the third parties we have are great, and I think Simon was a great add this time round, but Joker just doesn't excite me personally.

As for the rest of the rumoured gang:
Erdrick is passable, although I can't see me getting the Fighters Pass for him.
Doomguy I'm fine with but don't think he needs or should be in Smash Bros.
Ryu Hayabusa is a character I've never much cared for
and that leaves Steve as the one I'm most interested in. Steve. I haven't even played Minecraft but he's ended up as the only one I'm even intrigued on. What a time to be alive.
Honestly after the likes of Sonic, Pac-Man, Megaman, Ryu(and Ken), Simon, Snake and Cloud nothing really comes up to that level.

Even if I could get five third party characters I really love like say Crash, Spyro, Tails, Lara Croft and Team Fortress 2's Heavy, I just don't think I'd be as satisfied as I would with even a few modest first parties that aren't on my most wanted list.
 

Kotor

Luminary Uppercut!
Joined
Mar 8, 2014
Messages
2,709
All DLC is Third Party


Chance: 50%
Want: 50%

It rests entirely on a assumption based on what little info we have. One is confirmed Third Party (Joker), and one is heavily speculated to be Third Party (someone from Square with Erdrick getting the most attention). The remaining three are still unknown. If you think Ryu Hayabusa, Steve, and Doomguy are the rest because of that 4chan (or were those three from 5ch?) text leak, you do you. I'm content if Third Party characters made up the majority of the Fighter Pass, but I'm not going all in on all five being Third Party.

I'm in no rush to buy the Fighter Pass. As it currently is, it's a $25 blind bag. While I've never touched Persona 5, I do like the music (even if all I've listened to is Last Surprise) so Joker is okay in my book.

Boss Rush x5
 
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Dec 5, 2018
Messages
990
Chance 90%

Every first party character who could have been DLC was dumped into the Assist trophy and Spirit graveyard, so all that's left are third parties, it just makes logical sense.

Want 50%

There's still some first parties I want but at this point I just gotta accept that the things I like don't like up with the popular consensus
 

Jomosensual

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
452
All 3rd Party DLC

Chance: 75 - I think there's a very real possibility that this happens. 3rd party characters most of the time draw more buzz than 1st party ones do. Reggie's comment about characters you wouldn't expect to be in smash really points to this being the case too, because 1st party characters really don't fit the bill for that. I would go higher for this, but I expect at least one dlc character to be from a first party series. A gen 8 pokemon, a new FE character from 3 houses, or someone promoting the new Metroid game are my top guesses.

Want: 60 - I honestly dont care about how many 1st party reps there are compared to 3rd party reps. There aren't many, if any 1st party characters that I really badly want to see in the game so aren't already there or deconfirmed. An Arms rep, Issac, or Waluigi would probably be my last big want but all of them are out of the running. 3rd party characters usually do feel a lot more exciting than 1st party for me though, which is why I'm up over 50 percent for this. By far the biggest reaction I've had over any of the character reveals was for Joker, and I don't think a 1st party can give me that. That being said, I would like at least one of the final characters to be a 1st party.

Noms:
Gen 8 pokemon x5
 

Kotor

Luminary Uppercut!
Joined
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Messages
2,709
While I don't think Edelgard is fairly likely I think you're underestimating Sylux quite a bit. Sylux has already been a playable character so he's not brand new, and Prime 4 is arguably going to be their biggest drop in 2019 if we get it this year so it's not like anything related to that won't have hype, especially considering how much hype just seeing the title by itself caused. I think at the moment he is probably 100% the forerunner in the promotional Nintendo pick. Coming up with a stage and music surely wouldn't be terribly difficult with Prime 4 surely having new locations and music.
Sylux shows up in a DS Metroid game as just one of the many bounty hunters Samus fights. His ship appears at the ending of Prime 3, and only if you 100% the game. He shows up at the ending of Federation Force provided you did that Metroid egg bonus objective. All optional objectives that I doubt a lot of people got on their first playthrough. His overall importance to the Metroid Prime series is greatly exaggerated. He did nothing to influence Prime 3's and Federation Force's main campaign in any meaningful way. Him being the main villain of Prime 4 is nothing more than an assumption taken as fact.

I seriously doubt Nintendo of Japan would pick Sylux as the promotional DLC pick when Japan isn't even the biggest fans of the series. Metroid is perfectly fine with what it has. I'd rather declone Dark Samus then add a bottom of the barrel pick like Sylux.
 
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Sylux shows up in a DS Metroid game as just one of the many bounty hunters Samus fights. His ship appears at the ending of Prime 3, and only if you 100% the game. He shows up at the ending of Federation Force provided you did that Metroid egg bonus objective. All optional objectives that I doubt a lot of people got on their first playthrough. His overall importance to the Metroid Prime series is greatly exaggerated. He did nothing to influence Prime 3's and Federation Force's main campaign in any meaningful way. Him being the main villain of Prime 4 is nothing more than an assumption taken as fact.

I seriously doubt Nintendo of Japan would pick Sylux as the promotional DLC pick when Japan isn't even the biggest fans of the series. Metroid is perfectly fine with what it has. I'd rather declone Dark Samus then add a bottom of the barrel pick like Sylux.
Well its not just an assumption, one of the developers talked about wanting to use Sylux for Prime 4 and that's why he keeps showing up. So we know he is coming, its not an if its when.

And they know Prime 4 is a big deal because they teased it way back with just a title which is fairly unusual for Nintendo, so its not like they don't think of it as something that will build hype.

And its not just that Sylux is coming soon its that despite the fact that they have acknowledged that he is coming soon they didn't include him as a Spirit when they did include other Hunters.

So the only question will be if they decided to do all 3rd party or not, but if not and they are looking for a promotional pick Sylux is without a doubt on the top of that list, regardless of your feelings for the character.
 
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Fine I guess I can let you have wrong opinions as long as they aren't arguments lol.
You know, even though I never come to debate other posts, I wouldn't have been offended if anyone came here to debate my tastes, more so after reading that small comment with Edelgard and Sylux, seemed polite to tell me you weren't going to write something mean-spirited or anything like that.
 
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