Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Smasher 101]

DeMille

Chance: 0.5%

Simple one here: Tomato Adventure is an obscure, Japan only game that's very old yet not quite retro, and DeMille doesn't have nearly enough popularity to overcome that. It's entirely possible for him to manage to show up in a more minor role, but playable fighter is a huge long shot.

Want: 50%

Wouldn't mind it, actually. Obviously I've never played Tomato Adventure and likely won't any time in the near future, but I dunno, something about this idea always appealed to me. He'd be interesting enough, I'm sure. Still, there's plenty of more notable choices out I have more connection with, so I can't say I'm anything more than indifferent.

Reimu Hakurei

Chance: 0.5%

Not much going for this one, either. Touhou is a notable enough series, but it is definitely more popular in Japan. The big downsides are that it is third party, there's not much demand here that I know of, and not much Nintendo history. I don't think she has enough to overcome that.

Want: 50%

Admittedly this score is mainly for a friend. A franchise I have no connection with and that has little to no connection with Nintendo is generally a pass from me when it comes to Smash content, but a good friend of mine is actually a big fan of Touhou. I'd be pretty happy for them if this happened.

Nominations: Saki x5

 

[skylanders fan]

abstaing on both

nominating earthworm jim x5

 

[NintenRob]

What is this? 0s all around. We have such limited space that there's no chance in hell they'd waste space on these characters. I've never heard of either before today which is no good.

Nominate Daroach x5

 

[PapillonXtreme]

Abstain on DeMille.

Reimu Hakurei

Chance: 0.5%
Touhou is super popular in Japan, that's for sure, but it isn't as well known in other parts of the world, especially in the West. Besides, she still has to compete with Shantae for the spot as an Indie rep in Smash. Not to mention, none of her games have been released in Nintendo consoles, which really hurts her in the long run.

Want: 50%
I gotta admit, I've been playing Touhou games in my spare time and they were incredible. But when it comes to having Reimu in Smash, I'm not really that confident. Having literally no connection to Nintendo really hurts her chances. Besides, I would rather have Shantae to represent Indie games in Smash than Reimu, to be honest.

Nominations:
Melemele Island Stage x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Reimu

20% Chance

GoodGrief741 might not have any stock in the LaPapadour leak or however you state it, but it seems decently credible. As much as I have looked, I have not found the discord raid he talked about. A leak that got Richter right is something to consider.

So let me look at what Reimu has for her.

1: Touhou is pretty damn big. It is an indie franchise that has gone on for decades. Touhou is 22 years old. That is a pretty damn strong legacy for an indie franchise. While in the west we might not think of Reimu as the indie icon, in Japan she is pretty much the biggest indie character. I feel you all are underestimating how big Touhou is for an indie franchise.

2: Despite this Smash game appealing greatly to overseas so far with and to a lesser extent , we should not forget that sometimes, Smash does throw fanservice out to the Japanese. Reimu would be the kind of curveball to hype people up i can see.

3. Shantae is the most overrated character in Smash Ultimate speculation in terms of chance. Even putting aside I have heard she is an assist, people really overestimate her right now just due to her having a dedicated fanbase. Next smash she might have more of a chance, but right now she is far from the titan of an indie people would like to imagine her as.

4: Negotiations for Reimu would be relatively easy since ZUN is just... ZUN. It is one guy. They only have one person to contact for it.

5. Bullet hells are something that are iconic, and when I think Bullet Hell, I think Touhou.

Overall, yall are sleeping on this one. Though I would expect the moment this comes you all will be salty af over it.

100% Want

I like Touhou for the music. Seriously the music in Touhou is amazing. I would love to jam to remixes of it in Smash. Literally just like with Simon, I want Reimu for the music alone. Even puttin that aside, the moveset potential is there. I want a highly evasive frail character built around tricky dodges. It would be fun.

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Nomnomnomnom: Concept: Continually-released Alternate Cosmetic Costume Options for Characters via DLC

So.... literally just "Alt Costume DLC"?

What is this? 0s all around. We have such limited space that there's no chance in hell they'd waste space on these characters. I've never heard of either before today which is no good.

This is a really long and complicated way to just say "Who?"

Punch out newcomer x2

Punch out newcomer is now on the schedule. I'd switch your nominations at some point... hopefully to save something from the upcoming purge?

I mean, on the bright side, I have done thorough research on Tomato Adventure, and actually would like to see it represented now! I should have done the research back when it was on top of the nomination board, which is when I first went to check him out, but he actually wouldn't be that bad. Still think that his chances are practically impossible, but he isn't at a 0 anymore. The game looks fun now that I have a different lens on him.

 

[zferolie]

DeMille

Chance: 5%

I honestly never heard of him till today. Cool bunny from an interesting japanese only game. That is holding him back the most. The other thing putting him at 5% is that it seems like Sakurai was thinking adding him for brawl, according to wikis.

Want: 50%

I'm Neutral on him.

Reimu

Chance: 25%

Touhou is absolutely massive in japan. If you follow anything gaming in japan, or work in the industry in japan, most likely you experianced touhou. Many up and coming programers made touhou fan games. In Japan, touhou is the king of the doujin(indie) gaming scene, like how Shantae is the face of Indies here(stop denying it haters its true)

Saying touhou has never been on a nintendo system thus has no chance is silly, since Cloud got in. Before smash cloud was only a summon/side character in Kingdom hearts games on the nintendo consoles. If Originating or having a playable game on a nintendo system was required, cloud would have no chance. So why would Reimu have no chance? Plus, ZUN is very open with the use of the touhou license, so while the Nintendo Touhou games are all doujin games, they are still offically licensed touhou games. Its like Mario and rabbids situation or Sonic and the Dark brotherhood, except ZUN does this a lot more then Nintendo does.

Touhou also is the face of the bullet hell genre, which is not represented in smash but is a MASSIVE influence to game history.

That being said, Touhou is only massive in japan, which has hurt Sakurai bringing some characters into smash(Takumaru and Ayumi as prime examples), But Marth and Roy were pretty much Japan only till Melee, and that exploded them into popularity. Plus, ZUN has been noticing the American fandom for a bunch of years now and is pushing his games to be released outside of japan. ZUN could see a Touhou rep in smash as a way to grow the franchise more. That is if Nintendo wants to. And given just how impactful Touhou is in japanese gaming community, it would be remiss not to entertain the chance.

Want: 75%

Touhou is a fantastic series, with a great story and characters. The characters my god are all so entertaining and fun. Reimu in smash helping spread that knowledge to the world would be fantastic.

Reimu Herself would also be a very fun unique character, being a very projecticle focused character as she is from a bullet hell game. She could also have some unique mechanics like Grazing to dodge projectiles while dashing, and could have an Air dash just for her as a unique recovery mechanic.

Nom: Meloetta X 5.

 

[DaUsername]

DeMille
Chance: 0.1%
He's a one-off Japan only character from a game that released for more than 15 years ago. He doesn't really have anything going for him.
Want: 65%
I don't know much about this character or his game. But from what I've seen it seems like he'd be pretty fun to play in Smash.
Abstaining from Reimeme

Kyo prediction: 0%
Baloon prediction: 5%
Noms: Any Minecraft representation x5

 

[zferolie]

DeMille
Chance: 0.1%
He's a one-off Japan only character from a game that released for more than 15 years ago. He doesn't really have anything going for him.
Want: 65%
I don't know much about this character or his game. But from what I've seen it seems like he'd be pretty fun to play in Smash.
Abstaining from Reimeme

Kyo prediction: 0%
Baloon prediction: 5%
Noms: Any Minecraft representation x5

To be fair, wasn't Ice climbers from a 1 off game released 15 years before Melee? And ROB had just 3 games over 20 years before Brawl.

 

[DaUsername]

To be fair, wasn't Ice climbers from a 1 off game released 15 years before Melee? And ROB had just 3 games over 20 years before Brawl.

Yeah, but those weren't Japan only characters.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Saying touhou has never been on a nintendo system thus has no chance is silly, since Cloud got in. Before smash cloud was only a summon/side character in Kingdom hearts games on the nintendo consoles. If Originating or having a playable game on a nintendo system was required, cloud would have no chance.

Reminder that Cloud wasn't supposed to represent FFVII but rather Final Fantasy as a whole. Before FF became a mainly Playstation/Xbox associated IP I-VI were all released exclusively on Nintendo consoles. (Not to mention that Cloud also around the time of his reveal was appearing in 3ds spin-off games so it's not like Cloud was a stranger to Nintendo systems.) Cloud got in because Sakurai was looking for an FF rep and Cloud happened to be the most requested one.
Touhou doesn't have that same legacy with Nintendo. I don't think those Switch spin-off games made that much noise. Even then they don't fit the project plan.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day over new day.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Nominations will come later, getting into class now.

 

[TheCJBrine]

Abstain on Kyo; I know nothing about this character.

Bloon Fighter:

Chance: 5% - He could be in as a retro character, but I find it highly unlikely. I can see Sakurai coming up with moves for him like he did with the Ice Climbers and Duck Hunt, and perhaps make him a floaty fighter, but I'm not sure we'll even get a retro character this time around, unless Geno counts.

Want: 80% - Balloon Fight is one of my favorite one-off NES games, just under Ice Climber. I'd like to see what Sakurai does with the character, though to be honest I'm indifferent with his inclusion; who knows, though, if he became a fighter I might like him almost as much as I like the Ice Climbers themselves.

Nominations:

Steve? x3
Gengar x2

 

[Ridrool64]

Also abstaining on Mr. Kusanagi.

Oh Balloon Fighter, how I think this guy is not going to happen.

0% Chance. You can't not tell me Villager disconfirms him.

5% Want. I like this game but it's just Assist Trophy material in my eyes. Plus, there's other retroes I'd like more.

Noms go to Unique Puzzle Game Rep x5.

 

[Deleted member]

Abstaining on both.


Noms:
Break the Targets & Board the Platforms stage builder x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Abstain on Kyo

Balloon Fighter:

Chance: 10: Has a shot if they're going for a retro rep again this year. Not convinced we'll be getting any more retro reps in the base roster though

Want: 10: I like getting retro reps in the game because it helps get the spotlight back on some older characters. I don't really have any connection to Ballon Fighter though, so my want score will stay low

Noms:
Joker x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Abstain on Kyo

Balloon fighter
Chance: 0.01
As long as Villager still has that Up special he isn't getting in. Also it's looking like this game is about to break the 'nes first party suprise rep' with the limited amount of newcomers left, which even if it won't there are still some competitors he has to deal with.

Want: 5%
Balloon Fighter is a game I recently played with a friend on the online NES service for the first time for about five minutes. It's neat and all but at this point I don't think Balloon fighter should get into the game over many other characters. Again, we're running short on newcomer spaces and I'd prefer to see someone I and many other people support.

The prince x5

 

[RealPokeFan11]

KILLAGER'S COUSIN
Chance: 15%
Want: 50%
Balloon Fighter would be one of the choices for our running tradition of retro reps, or "WTF characters" for each Smash game. Sadly though, the roster is very tight right now, and we probably have about 2-3 spots left for unique fighters, considering a certain someone keeps predicting everything correctly. There are also some other retro characters that could take that slot too, such as Excitebiker, Stanley the Bugman, and Mach Rider. The Villager also has his signature move as his recovery, so his chances seem very slim. If he did somehow get in by surprise, I would be fine with it.

KYO WHATSHISNAME THE FIRE DUDE
Chance: 0%
Want: 10%
I'm gonna keep this section short since I just did research on his character. Sakurai has stated that he finds fighting game reps difficult to implement due to their complicated movesets. He considered Heihachi but scrapped him due to that same problem. Ryu is the game's rep from the fighting genre and Ken will also probably join him as an echo fighter. Kyo coming from a fighting game, automatically cuts down his chances quite a lot. Also, not many people are familiar with this character unless they played SNK. Considering the above, plus no ballot support, he gets an automatic 0%. At least he has fireballs! Just ask Yoshi, and his want score would be an auto 100%

Maybe that wasn't so short after all...

Nominations: Xurkitree x5

 

[Sari]

Kyo Kusanagi​

Since just about everyone so far has been abstaining on him it's clear he's not that well-known here which is completely understandable. I'll use this post to introduce KoF/Kyo briefly while also talking about my chance/want ratings:

​

So first off, The King of Fighters is one of SNK's most notable fighting game series. It utilizes 3v3 fighting where you switch to the next character if your character is KO'd (basically just squad strike in Smash Ultimate). With the exception of a few games (namely 2001 and XII), the KoF titles are incredibly fun to play through.

If you have a Switch you should check out KoF 98 (regarded as one of the most balanced FGs of all time) and if you have Steam check out 98 UM, 2002 UM, and XIII (they can run on basically any computer). All of those games are amazing and KoF XIII has some of the best sprite animation I have ever seen in a videogame period. XIV is also good though it isn't as populated online.

Kyo is the main protagonist of SNK's long-running series. As a descendant of the Kusanagi clan, he can incorporate flame-based moves into his already impressive melee attacks. He enters every KoF tournament in the hopes of claiming the self-proclaimed title every. Of course each tournament has some shady stuff going on behind the scenes, and starting with KoF 95 Kyo has frequently clashed with his cooler looking rival Iori.

​

Oh yeah and there are also a crap ton of Kyo clones in the series, both figuratively (Shingo) and literally due to when he got abducted by NESTS who cloned him in KoF 99. Maybe we can expect them as echos when Kyo becomes playable in the far off future.

​

Dating back to his debut in the King of Fighters 94, Kyo is easily one of the most popular SNK characters among Terry, Mai, and Geese. He has made many appearances in other games and was brought back into the spotlight with the release of KoF XIV. But how will that popularity help his chances in Smash?

Chance: 1%
Unfortunately, the chances of seeing everyone’s favorite high-school delinquent who can wield fire powers and also enters a 3v3 tournament every year are incredibly low. Some things he does have going for him for whatever they’re worth:

• The King of Fighters games are insanely popular in China and Latin American countries. If you want to get an idea of how big it is in China, the 2014 Dayou Cup Grand Finals of KoF 97 racked over 500,000 views which was a record for fighting game views (source). To compare, Evo's biggest viewership was with FighterZ this August which had roughly 250,000 views. Also KoF 97 recently got a re-release for modern systems since it was so big in China.
• SNK has a fairly strong relationship with Nintendo as many of their games (including many of the KoF games) are available on the Wii/U VC and the Switch. They also released SNK Heroines on the Switch last month and are releasing the Switch exclusive 40th anniversary collection later this year.
• SNK’s recent revival to their glory days with the release of KoF XIV and the new Samurai Shodown game releasing next year has given the company a renewed interest in the west (though it is admittedly slow at the moment).
• SNK has done a ton of crossovers featuring their popular characters in the past, most notably with the Capcom vs SNK games. They’ve also done crossovers featuring individual characters such as Geese in Tekken 7, Mai in Dead or Alive 5, Terry in EX Fighting Layer, and Iori in Arcana Blood. Kyo is one of SNK’s most popular characters so it is odd that he hasn’t made a specific guest appearance yet (maybe they're holding him off for something but that's just a hunch).
• They’ve let Kyo and other SNK characters appear in a ton of popular mobile games (including Brave Frontier) so I think they would be more than happy to allow Kyo into Smash for easy promotion.
• Sakurai has played King of Fighters in the past and apparently was so good at KoF 95 that he would win about 50 matches in a row. He even recalled an incident where he destroyed a non-gamer couple in KoF 95 and felt guilty about it afterwards (source).
• The King of Fighters was the first fighting game to utilize 3v3 fights, albeit switching characters once you are KO’d. Ultimate is introducing squad strike mode which is exactly how KoF plays (yeah I'm really grasping at straws at this point).

Sadly he is not too requested, is third-party, and would have to compete with Terry Bogard in regards to an SNK slot.

Oh, and he'd also have to compete with a little game series known as Tekken who is more likely to have another FG rep due to Bamco's involvement in Smash and Heihachi being considered for SSB4.

Want: 100%

What else would you expect from the guy who owns the Kyo support thread? Kyo is one of my all time favorite fighting game characters due to his rekka moveset and cocky personality. He'd translate into Smash very easily and would be a blast to use. Smash is lacking fighters with rekka-based movesets (the closest thing we have are the variants of Marth's side-B) and I think Kyo could easily bring a new and fun moveset to the table. Below is the concept I made for his rekka side-B to get an idea of how'd it go:

​

Another reason I would love Kyo in Smash is that means there is an excuse for SNK to add their amazing music into Smash. Seriously just listen to this stuff. Also if they included CvS2 music then we can get two of the most jammin' fighting game tracks of all time.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I will talk about Balloon Fighter in a separate post since my thoughts on Kyo took up most of it. For now I will say that Villager's up-B doesn't automatically deconfirm him.

Nominations: Kat & Ana x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Have to say, I’m very happy about how much discussion there was. I thought there would be double zeroes all around. Especially glad that so many people seem to agree how fun DeMille would be to play.

Spoiler: Nominations post-DeMille/Reimu Hakurei pre-Kyo Kusanagi/Balloon Fighter

Merric (Fire Emblem) x150
Susie Haltmann x139
Barbara the Bat x137
Concept: Character alternate costume DLC x135
Project Zero/Fatal Frame Protagonist x132
Sans as a boss character x132
Slime x131

150 - 101

Stage: Poke Floats x130
2B x126
Daroach x125
Guzma (Pokémon) x120
Saki Amamiya x120
Zeraora (Pokemon) x118
Xurkitree (Pokémon) x118
The Prince (Katamari) x118
Klonoa x117
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x115
Concept: Pikmin Newcomer x115
Rhythm Girl x115
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x114
Gooey x113
Raiden (Metal Gear) x110
Concept: Cross series Echoes x110
Tora & Poppi x102

100 - 51

Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x96
Viewtiful Joe x95
Concept: Only 4-6 newcomers for base roster x90
Chorus Kids x87
Silvally x86
Concept: Historical Character x80
Earthworm Jim x79
Yu Narakumi x76
Frank West x75
[Rerate] Steve? x74
Concept: Any Minecraft representation x74
Veronica x73
9-Volt x73
Toon Zelda x70
Joker (Persona) x69
Item: Breidablik x65
[Rerate] Sora x65
Stage: Melemele Island x65
Endou Mamoru x62
Concept: Break the Targets & Board the Platforms stage builder x60
Quote x58
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Character x56
Leo (Fire Emblem) x55
Concept: DLC character pass x55
Concept: Wars Characters x53
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x51

50 - 25

[Rerate] Spyro x45
Donbe and Hikari (Shin Onigashima) x44
Adeleine x44
Concept: Unique newcomer with low support (less than 20 supporters on Smashboards) x40
Concept: Xenoblade newcomer x40
Kat & Ana x38
Stage: Ultra Space x35
Assist Trophy: Chun-Li x35
Box Theory x34
Concept: Unique puzzle game rep x27
Dixie Kong & Kiddy Kong x25
Blacephalon (Pokemon) x25
Master Chief x25

Under 25

Blog Theory x24
[Rerate] Gengar x24
[Rerate] Concept: Zelda newcomer x20
Stage: Yoshi’s Crafted World x20
Sub-Zero x17
Concept: Modern Kirby Stage (Post Kirby Air Ride) x15
Concept: Custom Moves return x15
Concept: Custom Alternate Colors x15
Alexandra Roivas x15
[Rerate] Cranky Kong x15
Big Boss x15
[Rerate] Excitebiker x11
[Rerate] Porky Minch x11
Ryuhi (Flying Dragon) x10
Metal Sonic x10
Dr. Lobe (Big Brain Academy) x10
Cross (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x10
Break the Targets x10
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x10
Concept: Dragon Quest content x10
Bub & Bob x10
Conker x10
Concept: Danganronpa music x10
Volleyball Girl (NES Volleyball) x8
Stage Builder x8
Zeke (Xenoblade 2) x6
Stage: Gyromite Stage x5
Nia (Hyrule Warriors) x5
Concept: Valve Newcomer x5
Stage: SR388 x5
Concept: Playable Indie Character x5
Blaze the Cat x5
Alm x5
[Rerate] Octoling x5
Yandere Chan (Yandere Simulator) x5
Concept: Team Rocket as a Pokémon Trainer Echo x5
Cooking Mama x5
Playable Master Hand x5
Pam (Stardew Valley) x5
Captain Syrup x5
Concept: Return of Palutena’s Guidance/Codec Calls x5
Concept: Free DLC characters x5
Jin (Xenoblade) x5
Concept: Assist Trophy DLC x5
[Rerate] Black Shadow x5
Doshin the Giant x5
Stage: Mute City Melee x5
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x5
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x5
Bartz Klauser x5
Stage: Tetris x5
Elite Beat Agents x5
Erdrick x5
Meloetta x5
King Hippo x4
[Rerate] Ayumi Tachibana x4
Concept: New Yoshi item x4
Black Mage x4
Stanley the Bugman x3
[Rerate] Ninten x3
Creeper x3
Concept: WarioWare newcomer x2
Concept: F-Zero newcomer x2
Assist Trophy: Creeper x2
Diskun x1
Item: Wumpa Fruit x1
Birdo x1
Goomba x1

Slime breaks the tie with 2B, kicking her out of the top seven and passing Poke Floats, but Alternate costume DLC bursts full force into the top seven, passing the aforementioned three, Sans as a boss character, and Project Zero/Fatal Frame protagonist, landing in fourth place. Slime is now seventh, while Poke Floats also gets kicked off.

Surprisingly, we have a new contestant: Meloetta, with 5 nominations.

waddledeeonredyoshi since you posted your nominations before you knew Punch-Out newcomer would be on the schedule, I took the liberty of allocating them to the Prince.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Have to say, I’m very happy about how much discussion there was. I thought there would be double zeroes all around. Especially glad that so many people seem to agree how fun DeMille would be to play.

Spoiler: Nominations post-DeMille/Reimu Hakurei pre-Kyo Kusanagi/Balloon Fighter

Merric (Fire Emblem) x150
Susie Haltmann x139
Barbara the Bat x137
Concept: Character alternate costume DLC x135
Project Zero/Fatal Frame Protagonist x132
Sans as a boss character x132
Slime x131

150 - 101

Stage: Poke Floats x130
2B x126
Daroach x125
Guzma (Pokémon) x120
Saki Amamiya x120
Zeraora (Pokemon) x118
Xurkitree (Pokémon) x118
The Prince (Katamari) x118
Klonoa x117
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x115
Concept: Pikmin Newcomer x115
Rhythm Girl x115
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x114
Gooey x113
Raiden (Metal Gear) x110
Concept: Cross series Echoes x110
Tora & Poppi x102

100 - 51

Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x96
Viewtiful Joe x95
Concept: Only 4-6 newcomers for base roster x90
Chorus Kids x87
Silvally x86
Concept: Historical Character x80
Earthworm Jim x79
Yu Narakumi x76
Frank West x75
[Rerate] Steve? x74
Concept: Any Minecraft representation x74
Veronica x73
9-Volt x73
Toon Zelda x70
Joker (Persona) x69
Item: Breidablik x65
[Rerate] Sora x65
Stage: Melemele Island x65
Endou Mamoru x62
Concept: Break the Targets & Board the Platforms stage builder x60
Quote x58
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Character x56
Leo (Fire Emblem) x55
Concept: DLC character pass x55
Concept: Wars Characters x53
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x51

50 - 25

[Rerate] Spyro x45
Donbe and Hikari (Shin Onigashima) x44
Adeleine x44
Concept: Unique newcomer with low support (less than 20 supporters on Smashboards) x40
Concept: Xenoblade newcomer x40
Kat & Ana x38
Stage: Ultra Space x35
Assist Trophy: Chun-Li x35
Box Theory x34
Concept: Unique puzzle game rep x27
Dixie Kong & Kiddy Kong x25
Blacephalon (Pokemon) x25
Master Chief x25

Under 25

Blog Theory x24
[Rerate] Gengar x24
[Rerate] Concept: Zelda newcomer x20
Stage: Yoshi’s Crafted World x20
Sub-Zero x17
Concept: Modern Kirby Stage (Post Kirby Air Ride) x15
Concept: Custom Moves return x15
Concept: Custom Alternate Colors x15
Alexandra Roivas x15
[Rerate] Cranky Kong x15
Big Boss x15
[Rerate] Excitebiker x11
[Rerate] Porky Minch x11
Ryuhi (Flying Dragon) x10
Metal Sonic x10
Dr. Lobe (Big Brain Academy) x10
Cross (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x10
Break the Targets x10
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x10
Concept: Dragon Quest content x10
Bub & Bob x10
Conker x10
Concept: Danganronpa music x10
Volleyball Girl (NES Volleyball) x8
Stage Builder x8
Zeke (Xenoblade 2) x6
Stage: Gyromite Stage x5
Nia (Hyrule Warriors) x5
Concept: Valve Newcomer x5
Stage: SR388 x5
Concept: Playable Indie Character x5
Blaze the Cat x5
Alm x5
[Rerate] Octoling x5
Yandere Chan (Yandere Simulator) x5
Concept: Team Rocket as a Pokémon Trainer Echo x5
Cooking Mama x5
Playable Master Hand x5
Pam (Stardew Valley) x5
Captain Syrup x5
Concept: Return of Palutena’s Guidance/Codec Calls x5
Concept: Free DLC characters x5
Jin (Xenoblade) x5
Concept: Assist Trophy DLC x5
[Rerate] Black Shadow x5
Doshin the Giant x5
Stage: Mute City Melee x5
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x5
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x5
Bartz Klauser x5
Stage: Tetris x5
Elite Beat Agents x5
Erdrick x5
Meloetta x5
King Hippo x4
[Rerate] Ayumi Tachibana x4
Concept: New Yoshi item x4
Black Mage x4
Stanley the Bugman x3
[Rerate] Ninten x3
Creeper x3
Concept: WarioWare newcomer x2
Concept: F-Zero newcomer x2
Assist Trophy: Creeper x2
Diskun x1
Item: Wumpa Fruit x1
Birdo x1
Goomba x1

Slime breaks the tie with 2B, kicking her out of the top seven and passing Poke Floats, but Alternate costume DLC bursts full force into the top seven, passing the aforementioned three, Sans as a boss character, and Project Zero/Fatal Frame protagonist, landing in fourth place. Slime is now seventh, while Poke Floats also gets kicked off.

Surprisingly, we have a new contestant: Meloetta, with 5 nominations.

waddledeeonredyoshi since you posted your nominations before you knew Punch-Out newcomer would be on the schedule, I took the liberty of allocating them to the Prince.

My angry Merric essay is already done.

 

[PeridotGX]

Double abstain on Kyo. I dont know anything about KoF.

Baloon Fighter

Chance: 2%. The Token retro looks a little less likely this time around. Plus, Villager still has his Up-B, which is the defining Baloon Fight Gimmick.

Want: 30%. I've been playing Baloon Fight on Switch Online. It's quite fun.

Nominations: CSE x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Balloon Fighter

Chance: 15%
If we do get a retro rep, he’s one of if not the likeliest. Iconic, has moveset potential, he even has a stage, so 103-ers don’t even have to worry about that. Would also be a nice tribute to Iwata. Villager’s Up-B doesn’t disconfirm him any more than Marth wielding Falchion does Lucina and Chrom or Peach’s Toad disconfirms Captain Tod.

Want: 100%
Absolute legend. Would be great to play. Love the game.

Kyo Kusanagi

Chance: 1%
Sadly, it appears that Kyo isn’t really iconic. I know him, but I can agree that he doesn’t have a distinctive enough design to stand out (something Terry has over him). Every point against Terry also applies to him.

Want: 10%
Not iconic, and I like third parties to be iconic. Gave some points because I like KoF.

Nominations: Chorus KidsX5

 

[WaddleMatt]

Kyo:

Double Abstain

Balloon Fighter:

Chance - 10%

I have my doubts if we are getting a retro rep this time or not and if so I think there would be other choices, there was a reason he was rejected in Melee (though to be fair Villager, Miis, Pac-Man, Ridley happened sooo) and with Villager's Up+B existing I feel he doesnt have that much of a shot. Though his NES game is probably one of the more iconic ones out there.

Want - 5%

I wouldn't mind but I don't think it would make me hyped at all and there is many other choices I would rather have especially this late into the speculation phase. The 5% is more just because I enjoy playing Balloon Fight and I'm sure I would love him in some form.

Nominations: Rhythm Girl x5

 

[NintenRob]

Balloon Fighter
Chance 1%
Villager pretty much has this role sorted, he's stolen the main gimmick from Balloon Fighter, not leaving much else for him

Want 50%
It would make a nice tribute to Iwata, but asides from that I don't see the appeal. But that alone is a good reason.

The other one
Double 0
Why would this guy be chosen over any other third party? As far as I'm concerned there isn't. Third parties should be iconic legends, or at the very least a ballot winner Nintendo partially owns anyway.

Daroach x5

 

[Troykv]

Oh dammit; I forgot to vote in the Reimu Day.

But oh well; I returned because of mah boy (well; the other one xD) Kyo

But first...

Ballon Fighter

Chance: 10%

The focus of the game is hurting HARD the probabilities of old NES Characters... Also, Ballon Fighter isn't exactly the character with the most exciting moveset.

Want: 50%

I mostly respect the game and everything it minds, but I don't have any particular attachment to the idea.



Kyo Kusanagi:

Chance: 5%

KOF and the SNK Series in general are overshadowed franchises nowadays despite having many iconics characters and ideas that became standart in other games (and evolve even further); I quite like the play-style of KOF despite don't be exactly a good player (I'm not exactly great doing combos; I don't have practice XD); Kyo's appeal as a potential character is mostly for the fact we know Sakurai knows about KOF's existence.

Want: 80%

This is usually a character I forget I quite like because of the fact I'm currently uncapable of playing the newer games; but damn; I love KOF aesthetic, style, and even its lore; and Kyo Kusanagi was one of the first character that catched my attention and decided to use; using him is simple but feels so great.

I really like Kyo's style and cocky personality; seeing Orochinagi and Final Showdown (specially Final Showdown) in action is quite charming and I will never stop liking this animations. I guess KOF developed my like for Super Moves being very flashy and explosive.

Also KOF XIII is filled with great visual flair that I really love.

________

Neptune (Chouningen Game Neptune/Hyperdimension Neptunia) x5

 

[Opossum]

Abstaining on Kyo.

Merric x5

My angry Merric essay is already done.

No but really, who pissed in your cereal?

 

[aarchak]

Kyo Kusanagi

Chance: 0%
If only we had more open spots for newcomers. Sadly, we have 5 new spots left AT MOST, and really doesn't leave room for someone who isn't at the top of the requested list/ new and hot. Kyo would probably have better chances if we had already got the top choices and still had room.
Want: 25%
I think he could be interesting and fun to play, but I'm not super into him. I'll take him if he's in, but I wouldn't miss his inclusion.

Balloon Fighter

Chance: 0%
I think Villager's up-B basically disconfirms him. Flying around was basically the soul of Balloon Fighter, and that move captures that aspect so completely it's hard to think they'd put him in anyways.
Want: 0%
I don't want someone so uninteresting in over basically any other character. Just no, keep him as a trophy or something.

Nominations
Character alternate costume DLC x5

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

TERRY BOGARD

Another character of a large series that I don't play that needs to be rated. For one thing, I don't think that he has had enough requests or support in general to make it in. As the main character of the Fatal Fury series, I guess he may have a chance if Fatal Fury is even represented. I just don't think that it WILL be represented. SNK Heroines kind of helps him, even if he isn't really "present" in that game. Just the fact that SNK is willing to work with Nintendo to get a game on the Switch should help. I guess Terry kind of has a shot...

Chance: 10%

Let's just say that I'm not an avid supporter for his cause, but I guess it'll be cool if he got in. There isn't all that much that compels me to really WANT him, besides the fact that he's a big name within a big series. I don't think that Fatal Fury is prominent enough for him to earn one of the coveted few spots that are left. This isn't to say he isn't popular, but he isn't really a popular pick for a character on the roster. I personally wouldn't mind, but he isn't my biggest priority...

Want: 7.5%

KYO KUSANAGI

All of the points that I mentioned for Terry also apply to Kyo, except for that Kyo is much less iconic and is less present in SNK games. Kyo is the chief KoF character, while Terry is the chief Fatal Fury character. Different games, same developer. Fatal Fury is more iconic, and Kyo personally looks really stale to me. So yeah....

Chance: 5%

Want: 2.5%

Terry should easily be the sole representative from SNK franchises is all I'm saying. Kyo may be second, but he's farrrrr off. Nobody even think about nominating more SNK characters, they'll just keep getting lower and lower.

BALLOON FIGHTER

Cons: Villager. Up. Special.
Pros: Balloon Fight already has a stage, so adding Balloon Fighter wouldn't require that a stage be created with him. Villager's up-special doesn't mean squat when it comes to disconfirming a character, and a character with weak attacks that has great mobility would make a very unique fighter, that's for sure. I personally imagine that Balloon Fighter would have infinite jumps with slow falling, giving him a new movement type that Smash has never seen; however, his attacks are slow to hit as well as deal low damage. So pretty much an anti-Little Mac. It'd be a fine retro rep to add, being re-brought to light through the Nintendo Switch Online NES roster, and Balloon Fight was also one of the founding 12 Nintendo franchises according to the representation within Nintendo Land. Sakurai almost put him into Melee as a fighter, so we know he isn't a long shot. The series has recently become popular again (almost solely due to being one of the best received games on the NES Online...

Chance: 25%

Want: 60%

Nominations: Quote x5

 

[Sari]

And now for Balloon Fighter:

Chance: 20%
Of all the possible retro reps I think Balloon Fighter has the most going for him. He was considered for Melee, is fairly well-known, already has his own stage, and would be fitting as a tribute to Iwata whose death was still somewhat recent by the time of roster planning. Despite all of this, I’m not even sure if we’ll be getting a retro rep at all.

Also I think it’s silly to say he's automatically deconfirmed just because of Villager’s up-B. That’s like saying Ryu can’t be in Smash because of Mega Man’s up-tilt, or Richter can’t be in because of Simon’s up-B. If the Duck Hunt Dog and R.O.B. can get full working movesets than so can Balloon Fighter.

Want: 70%
I’m usually not a fan of retro characters but I’d be down for this. I played a bit of Balloon Fighter and I thought it was really fun. I feel that he could work as a character.

 

[ProfPeanut]

Oh wow, the day actually moved fast. Caught me off guard there.

Kyo Kusanagi

Chance: 2%
What looks like a repeat of Terry Bogard's situation gets a 1% bump over the usual no-hoper third-parties simply because Sakurai's intimately familiar with the King of Fighters series, a little like how he knows Street Fighter. But it goes without saying that almost every fighting game franchise that's survived so far seems to be able to argue for a spot in the one crossover fighter to end them all, which of course means that almost that none of them will make it without a serious leg above the rest.

Want: 25%
While he's not exactly high on my list of "must-rep" characters, he'd still be a way to represent otherwise-absent SNK, which counts for something when they have few other means of showing up in Smash. Still, there's a long line of characters trying to get into people's Smash-supporting hearts that this guy's basically just lined up for.


Balloon Fighter

Chance: 25%
It doesn't seem like Sakurai's too interested in making Balloon Fighter, handing his gimmick off to be faithfully represented by Villager instead. That's one of Balloon Fighter's apparent flaws, of course - he's low on the side of moveset potential, only able to fight by hitting his foe's balloons first and nothing else. It's not unworkable, but it's not very inspiring either; what can Balloon Fighter add when he fights by the same bait-and-switch metagame that fighting games already subscribe to? Sakurai himself passed over Balloon Fighter to choose Ice Climber instead back in Melee, the sort of judgement that would take a Ridley-scale kind of demand to overturn. But Balloon Fighter has no such support base, leaving him to rely only on a future lucky break to have a fighting chance.

It doesn't help that historically, Joust was the earlier pioneer of such game mechanics, which is an unlucky bit of trivia for any sort of Nintendo retro to deal with when all its other peers can claim pioneer status.

Want: 75%
Balloon Fighter was my go-to retro pick for Smash 4 season, and an aspect of Nintendo's 8-bit library that I still feel deserves character representation, albeit not as strongly as I did before. It was a game I enjoyed playing back then, and I hope it gets better than an unremastered stage in the future.


Nominations
Quote x5

Spoiler: Some thoughts about yesterday's characters, if anyone would care for them

DeMille

You know what really gets to me? The difference between Isaac and Demille. Both are unique RPGs that debuted in the GBA era only to be left behind as franchises when their owners found more profit making spinoff Mario games. But while Alphadream basically turned their Tomato Adventure sequels into Mario & Luigi games, Camelot Softeware resigned itself to making Mario Golf and Mario Tennis games. I daresay it's really the former of the two who has the better chance here.

And yet out of the two, Isaac is the one with the support base to rival Geno's and Skull Kid's bases. Golden Sun is a good game, as I'm told, but I do wonder what sort of speculation environment we'd have if Tomato Adventure got localized as well.


Reimu Hakurei

I have to side with the fact that Touhou's license is given very freely, making the issues of Nintendo borrowing them likely as painless as borrowing Shovel Knight from Yacht Club Games, essentially giving Smash free coverage if Sakurai so wills it. And yeah, just like Saber, you'd have to be pretty blind to Japanese media/culture to never see a peep of Touhou, so her inclusion would be a great hit in home-country Japan. However, I do feel like an Assist Trophy cameo would be a more likely appearance for her, allowing her to retain her bullet-hell mechanics while still causing as much of a splash as her inclusion might make at this point..

 

[Pizza Robo]

Kyo Kusanagi
Chance 15%
Kyo is the main character in King Of Fighters Series and Sakurai has played King Of Fighters 95 but Terry Bogard is the more popular SNK Character
Want 100%
I want Kyo to be in so he can be a Character rep for SNK plus he plays different from Ryu
Abstaining on Balloon Fighter

Nominations
Cody Travers(Final Fight/Street Fighter) x3 I made a Cody Support Thread
The Yokai Watch as Assist Trophy/Pokeball Summoning Item x2

 

[FancySmash]

Kyo... uh, who?
'He's from King of Fighters'
Ah, the fighting game that's not Street Fighter or Tekken.

Chance: 5%
Sorry, I do think that King of Fighters has some merits as a fighting game... but not as much as Street Fighter or Tekken. If we get another fighting character, I kinda believe it'll be from Tekken. Combined with limited space, I don't think Kyo has that great a chance.

Want: Abstain
I know so little of fighting games. Not personally a fan if it isn't Smash, but not my place to fairly say I believe.

Balloon Fighter

Chance: 5%
Oof, yeah, I'm a part of the believers of Villager's recovery meaning bad things for Balloon Fighter. Not to mention, we... kinda... already have a literal balloon fighter (). He doesn't have the worst chances in the world, but I believe other retro reps (if we even get one) have better odds than him.

Want: 5%
Eh, not really in the camp for a retro rep this time around, sorry. I actually kinda see Simon as our retro rep this time around, no matter how correct or incorrect I am for saying so.

 

[aarchak]

Also I think it’s silly to say he's automatically deconfirmed just because of Villager’s up-B. That’s like saying Ryu can’t be in Smash because of Mega Man’s up-tilt, or Richter can’t be in because of Simon’s up-B. If the Duck Hunt Dog and R.O.B. can get full working movesets than so can Balloon Fighter.

I don't think there's a full equivalency there. Those moves for Simon and Mega Man don't fully represent the character they're referencing (and the Mega Man one is from MvC, not Street FIghter), but flying around is kind of all of Balloon Fighter's thing. Of course, it doesn't outright disconfirm him, but I think that reference is all the devs want to do with Balloon Fighter.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Balloon Fighter: abstain

Kyo Kusanagi want: 0%

Rekka combos don't seem like anything that special in Smash. What's so great about hitting the same button and doing different moves? The fact that it's a larger moveset? All combos in Smash [Edit: that use only one button] are rekka combos, unless you limit the definition of 'rekka' to not even changing the directional input. Is it the timing that you want added? That's just telegraphing in a game like Smash, unless you have branching trees of timed rekka combos, which seems like a waste of time to add to a game like Smash.

As for the fire moves, you have to REALLY want fire if the characters already in the game don't hit the spot. You've got Captain Falcon, Charizard, Roy, Bowser, Mario, and probably more. I don't particularly want a character with a ton of fire moves.

There are other KOF (and especially other SNK) characters that I would rather have and that would add more novelty to the roster.

Nominations:

Merric x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Kyo Kusanagi

Chance - 0.5% - Another fighting game character. Sakurai seems to be familiar with his franchise, but Sakurai seems hesitant to add fighting game characters in Smash, due to them mostly already having similar characters in the game. Ryu got in by basically breaking Smash traditions in favor of porting over what he did in his home games. I don't think that's going to happen again.

Want - 20% - I dislike Ryu in Smash, due to him breaking those traditions. Kyo will likely follow in his footsteps if he gets in, and I don't want that either.


Balloon Fighter

Chance - 5% - Villager has the single move he did in his original game. Combine with the fact that retros are themselves questionable right now, and despite his influence he doesn't seem likely at all.

Want - 35% - He's an important part of Nintendo history, sure. But he doesn't need to be playable in my view, he's a good assist trophy though.


Nominations

Slime X5

 

[DjinnandTonic]

Balloon Fight:
Chance: 1%
Villager's Up+B deconfirms him in my views. He already didn't have enough of a moveset to work with, Villager stealing it pretty much kills his chances. It's only this high because Iwata loved this game.

Want: 1%
Again, only this high because of Iwata.

Kusanagi Kyo:
Chance: 10%
Marginally higher! Sakurai likes KoF. KoF is a relatively important fighting game series. Honestly, I think KoF is a great fighting game, with great mechanics and amazing art! But... Like, none of its characters are actually very interesting. And most of its tropes were done first or better by Street Fighter, Tekken, or ArcSys. They are just kinda bland and mediocre, which is not a good place to be to garner attention for a Smash appearance.

Want: 10%
I LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOVE KoF's art. That is the epitome of sprite art right there. Wonderful usage of keyframes that just makes everything pop. I love KoF's fighting mechanics. Once you get into the groove, it's like a runner's high or perfect flow.
But goddamn if Kyo isn't the most boring protagonist since Dragon Quest... Like, KoF's roster isn't particularly exciting, but Kyo himself is such a snoozefest... I wish KoF had a better protagonist because then the series would actually have a chance.

So.... literally just "Alt Costume DLC"?

Congratulations! You found the joke! (I know, it wasn't a very good one, I was just feeling cheeky.) Also, this is my Nomination again.

 

[Artix]

Kyo Kusanagi

Chance: 5%
Yeah, Kyo isn't as iconic as Ryu or Terry and that really hurts his chances. However, Sakurai has played KoF before, so it's possible that he might know Kyo, but Terry still has the slight edge over Kyo due to being more iconic. It also doesn't help that he (or at least a female version of him) did not appear in SNK Heroines and he's usually the main character in these type of games. Aside from Terry, he also has to compete with Heihachi for the spot as well, so overall, he's got nothing that will have him consider in Smash.

Want: 90%
I'll admit, ever since Ryu was included in Smash, I've been wanting other fighting game characters to appear in Smash and Kyo is one of them. He's one of my most wanted characters in Smash. I wouldn't mind seeing either Kyo or Terry in Smash since I like either of them.

Balloon Fighter (Balloon Fight)

Chance: 1%
Villager's Up-B pretty much deconfirmed him. Even if it isn't, he's not that highly demand in the Ballot and I don't see any supports as well. Besides, even if he were to represent Retro in Ultimate, there are a lot of retro characters that he has to compete, such as Excitebiker, Mach Rider, Ayumi Tachibana or even Lip from Panel de Pon. The reason I gave him a 1% percent is because at least they acknowledge Balloon Fight through Villager's Up B even if that move itself hurts his chances.

Want: 0%
When it comes to getting a Retro rep in Ultimate, Balloon Fighter is not the one that comes to mind, unfortunately. There are other retro characters that are more deserving as playable characters than Balloon Fighter.

Nominations:
Melemele Island Stage x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Spoiler

So... this happened. My stance is leaning real, even if no black Knight. Everything lines up pretty well for it tbh. I know some people are hard Vergeben, but I will be considering this from now on tbh.