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[YoshiandToad]

Dat Leak
Chance: 60%
Let's be honest here...most the characters on the list aren't exactly out the realm of possibility.
Chrom was always going to be considered, as was Palutena, Little Mac, Mii and probably Shulk.
Pac-Man isn't hard to guess at all, especially when Namco were revealed to be helping...even before that he's one of the few truly legendary video game characters that could have been considered for a guest role in Smash.
Megaman was so obvious even I guessed him being a shoo-in. I've never even played Megaman, that's how obvious this was.
Animal Crossing is hugely popular and deserved a character in Brawl honestly.
A new Pokemon from the current gen isn't exactly mind blowing either...it's only happened every single Smash game; Pichu and Lucario anyone?

So really the leak's credibility is really only reliant on Chorus Men and Wii Fit Trainer, both characters hugely unlikely.

It's certainly not impossible to hazard a guess at Wii Fit Trainer, just hugely improbable. She's not exactly a 'character' for one thing, and she was not exactly wanted by anyone. Should Chorus Men get in, the leak is proved totally true, but currently one (incredibly) lucky guess isn't enough to confirm everything for me.

Want: 20%

The pros:
+ Pac-Man

The negatives:
-Everyone else.

I literally couldn't give less of a damn about any of the characters in the leak with Pac-Man being the only exception. No I don't care about Palutena but feel she's kind of overrated, I feel Chrom's inevitably a dull retread of Marth/Roy and Ike fused together, and whilst I'm sure Shulk's great I haven't played his game and thus have no reason to get excited about him. I'll give him a go, sure, but he doesn't really get me hyped.

Ironically I don't dislike the idea of Chorus Men, albeit I struggle to understand how exactly they'll function. I think Rhythm Heaven does deserve some sort of representation, but I'd be just as happy with a stage.

Mii, I'm still not really happy with. I understand their importance to Nintendo, which softens the hate a bit more...and honestly they're a lot more deserving than...I dunno...how about someone like;

Savvy Stylist
Chance: 5%
Only this high because it's Sakurai and he's chosen some pretty weird options this time round. Nothing is impossible, even if it should be.

Want: 0%
**** off. Just **** off. If we lose out on anymore genuine Nintendo All Stars for this nonsense I want Sakurai to be replaced frankly. Man has clearly lost his mind. Glaciacott sums up why this would be such a slap in the face for female gamers, and I can see my sister really losing it if this is Nintendo's ideal way of appealing to the ladies to get them to play Smash.

Nominations:
NFC smash trophies X5

 

[Leafeon523]

It really irritates me to see people giving the Gematsu leak 100% chances. Seriously, you aren't even willing to acknowledge the possibility that they are wrong? A 99 or a 98% is fine, but a character like chorus men is far from confirmed. Likewise, giving the leak a 0% isn't acceptable either, especially after they got WFT right.

 

[BluePikmin11]

These ratings for Savvy makes nominating her not worth it, at least put some thought into it before putting "Do I even need to explain..," this happens on too many Nintendo characters that aren't popular at all.

Style Savvy Chance: 7.5% I could see it happening, but it's not a notable Nintendo franchise for Sakurai to even look at, the series did get some reception for it's addicting dress up gameplay. The best it could get is a trophy IMO, I would have to wait for a few more years to see what happens for the franchise.

Style Savvy Want: 100% Mainly want for the appeal of a fighter that uses dresses and hangars as a form of combat that is unlike any other character.

Gematsu Leak Chance: 95% Both of the leaks are true, we already had the Wii Fit Trainer that completely benefits the first leak, and Pokemon from X and Y was part of the leak as well, this is one of the few leaks that I think are very much true.

Gematsu Leak Want: 75% I gotta be honest, after the deconfirmation of Zoroark and Tom Nook, I felt a little bitter that Greninja and Chorus Men filled out the spots for them as the casual franchise character and the new Pokemon character, but it did not really affect my prediction roster much though, so that's fine by me.

Nominations:
x5 Nintendo Joker

 

[Autumn ♫]

Salamander leak
Chance 50%
Right now, the leak could go either way, if you want to hear about any of my arguments against it, just look at my reply to Scoliosis post. (I'm too lazy to get it right now.

Want:25%
I'd rather it not be real, as it has Mii and Chrom playable.

Style Savvy
Chance:2%
It has almost no chance of having a playable character. 'Nuff said

Want:0%
Having someone use clothes and such as attacks isn't very appealing to me.

 

[Rockaphin]

Leak:
Chance: 40%
Want: 10%
I'd be more than disappointed, maybe if they there were some others not listed but I still prefer other characters before most of the ones listed in the leak.

Style Savvy:
Chance: 3%
Want: 5%
Eh, she could be different and possibly unique. But I'd have to know more about her in order to grab my attention.

Nominations:
Metal Overlord Boss x5

 

[Freduardo]

Gematsu Leak:
Chance: 65%
Better than 50% odds, cause hey, it's got a lot right.

Want: 45%
...I want other characters too, but have no real qualms with the ones on that leak.

Style Savvy
Chance: 1%
I don't see it happpening.
Want: 5%
I generally always want new characters, but if I want an offensive female stereotype, I'd rather Cooking Mama. She seems more productive and better designed.

Nominate: Fawful X5

 

[Deleted member]

Ah... the Gematsu Leak. I will handle this one differently. I will be looking at every single newcomer on the list (even confirmed ones) and I will state my chances for each one. Also, I will be looking at shock value. The Gematsu leak definitely has "out there" characters like Wii Fit Trainer and Chorus Men, so we shall evaluate how shocking these characters are. It will range from 0% (Expected), 50% (Intermediate), and 100% (Shocking). With this out of the way...

The Gematsu Leak
Before I give my chance, let's look at all of these characters.
Palutena
Chance: 99% - She's a shoo-in.
Shock Value: 0% - She's a shoo-in.

Little Mac
Chance: 95% - He has American popularity, a recent revival, and a stage to boot. I doubt that he and his series would be given Smashville treatment.
Shock Value: 50% - I am taking Japan into consideration. We expected Little Mac, but they didn't. While Little Mac was a safe choice in our eyes, he would have been ridiculous in Japan. Heck, some know him through Captain Rainbow. We expected him, but Japan was utterly shocked by his appearance.

Pac-Man
Chance: 93% - With Namco working on the game and the Special Flag, I doubt that he would be glossed over by Sakurai.
Shock Value: 0% - It's Namco's main mascot and he's a video game legend! How can you not envision this guy in Smash?

Shulk
Chance: 80% - I've went over why I think that he has an amazing chance twice now. Here's the latest one. There is still some doubt as I can see him get Assist Trophy treatment; I would give that 18% while just a regular trophy or sticker at 2%.
Shock Value: 50% - When you think of new series that could be represented in Smash, you might think of Shulk immediately. Though, there are some doubters who think that he might not get in. As a result, he ranges from an expected choice from supporters to an absolute shock in some people's eyes.

Chrom
Chance: 75% - Being the new star of the latest and most successful Fire Emblem game, I say that Chrom might get in on these merits. It's pretty critical since Fire Emblem was going to be discontinued if it wasn't successful; Awakening saved the franchise.
Shock Value: 0% - Because of these merits, he seems to be a pretty expected character. He has a good chance of getting in.

Villager
Chance: 60% - Minus the quote, Villager had the best chance of getting in Smash as the AC rep. He is the most recognizable AC character as he is your avatar, after all. If there was going to be an AC rep, it was going to be Villager. I should mention that he was listed as "Animal Crossing Guy"; I don't take this as a strike against the leak as the Villager doesn't have an identity while characters like Tom Nook do.
Shock Value: 50% - Villager should have been expected. I mean, it's Animal Crossing! One of Nintendo's most successful franchises! It seems as though people thought that the Villager was done with Sakurai's quote and was shocked when he got in.

Mega Man
Chance: 50% - Sakurai mentioned putting in a Capcom character. Mega Man had the best chance due to his popularity and iconic status, but I would put him down as 50/50. I had a thought that Capcom might interfere and ask for a different character like Ryu.
Shock Value: 0% - People were definitely stoked that he got in, but he wasn't all that shocking in most people's eyes.

Mii
Chance: 50% - Things are looking up for the Mii. They have an iconic status and they may have been hinted at several times. Though, I can see Sakurai be opposed towards putting them in.
Shock Value: 50% - Miis are iconic, but they aren't really expected in some people's eyes. In fact, some people think that they're done.

Chorus Men
Chance: 30% - Without this leak, they are basically nothing. Sakurai may choose them as he would feel interested in working with them in Smash.
Shock Value: 100% - This is the final shock newcomer listed here. People are expecting them because of the leak while others doubt them and thus think that the leak is losing its legitimacy. However, if they were shown off at E3, I bet that this will cause a stir.

Wii Fit Trainer
Chance: 5% - I would have given her the benefit of the doubt due to the popularity of Wii Fit, but I never would have thought that she would have gotten in Smash.
Shock Value: 100% - No one predicted this.

Pokemon from X & Y (Greninja)
Chance: 1% - X and Y were too recent in my eyes to warrant a spot. Let me also remind you that the most expected outcome was Brawl Pokemon + Mewtwo. I haven't seen a single roster with Greninja prior to that Direct.
Shock Value: 100% - Another character no one predicted.

When we break it down, we have 3 shocking newcomers, 4 newcomers that are kinda shocking and kinda expected, and 4 expected newcomers. Most of the remaining characters are in a good position, one of them can go either way, and one almost hinges the legitimacy of the leak.
The overall chance of these newcomers happening is 58% while the overall shock value is 45.45%. I averaged these two and ended up 51.73%. This... is my overall chance score.

Chance: 51.73%
The leak has some safe bets and some shocking newcomers. If we look at the leak as a whole, then I say that we nearly have a 50% chance of this leak being real. However, due to the nature of the Wii Fit Trainer, Chorus Men, and Greninja, characters that we didn't expect, it seems as though that the legitimacy of the leak is on Sal Romano's side. I can see this go either way, but I'm leaning more towards it being real. We should keep a close eye at what happens at E3.
Want: 100%
I don't care about most of the remaining newcomers. I could care less if Palutena and Chrom make it in, I'm fine either way with Pac-Man, I'm iffy on the Chorus Men, and I absolutely detest the Miis. While I say all of this, I am willing to take all of these characters just for one.

Spoiler

Not having Shulk in Smash is an absolute crime. The roster would feel incomplete to me if he doesn't make it in. He is my most wanted newcomer and one of my favorite video game characters of all-time. I am willing to accept Miis even just so that I can have Shulk in Smash. Even then, I'm already ecstatic that two characters within my top ten are in Smash (Little Mac and Villager).
While I am disappointed that Bandana Dee and King K. Rool aren't listed, I know that the characters in the Gematsu Leak aren't the only newcomers left as evidenced by Rosalina, so there is hope.
Overall... Sakurai, lend me the Monado's power in Smash! PLEASE! This would be the best birthday present ever!

Savvy Stylist
Chance: 0%
I was going to be cheap and say "Oh yeah, Savvy Stylist? Double zeroes", but I need to say that this is a horrible character for Sakurai to choose. We've got our share of shocking newcomers, but none of them have been like this. I bet that he wouldn't put in this character over more requested ones like Shulk, King K. Rool, Ridley, Bandana Dee, among others. Even if there is a shallow reason for "MORE FEMALES," let me list you some that should get in Smash before Savvy Stylist does.

Spoiler

Palutena
Medusa
Viridi (and she's a stage hazard!)
Dixie Kong
Adeline from Kirby 64
Daisy
Hikari
Lip
Mona
Ashley
Anna
Micaiah
Lucina
Kumatora
Paula
Fiora from Xenoblade
Krystal
Mother Brain
Dark Samus
Tetra
Toon Zelda
Impa
Jody Summers
Isabelle
Sami

There are far, far better options for females. This is grasping for straws.
Want: -100% (0%)
I hate this idea as much as I hate the idea of Miis, Cloud Strife, Sora, and Reggie getting into Smash. Yes, it's that bad. If Savvy Stylist got in, I would highly be questioning Sakurai's choices. Why Savvy Stylist over the other females that I've mentioned? Why her over characters that have actual fan demand? This is a cruel and stupid joke.

Veteran Downgraded Prediction: 82.15%
This happened before, it's bound to happen again.
Micaiah Prediction: 5.40%
I sense that she will get decimated.

Nominations: Dr. Eggman 5x

 

[Toxicroaker]

Ah... the Gematsu Leak. I will handle this one differently. I will be looking at every single newcomer on the list (even confirmed ones) and I will state my chances for each one. Also, I will be looking at shock value. The Gematsu leak definitely has "out there" characters like Wii Fit Trainer and Chorus Men, so we shall evaluate how shocking these characters are. It will range from 0% (Expected), 50% (Intermediate), and 100% (Shocking). With this out of the way...

The Gematsu Leak is Real
Before I give my chance, let's look at all of these characters.
Palutena
Chance: 99% - She's a shoo-in.
Shock Value: 0% - She's a shoo-in.

Little Mac
Chance: 95% - He has American popularity, a recent revival, and a stage to boot. I doubt that he and his series would be given Smashville treatment.
Shock Value: 50% - I am taking Japan into consideration. We expected Little Mac, but they didn't. While Little Mac was a safe choice in our eyes, he would have been ridiculous in Japan. Heck, some know him through Captain Rainbow. We expected him, but Japan was utterly shocked by his appearance.

Pac-Man
Chance: 93% - With Namco working on the game and the Special Flag, I doubt that he would be glossed over by Sakurai.
Shock Value: 0% - It's Namco's main mascot and he's a video game legend! How can you not envision this guy in Smash?

Shulk
Chance: 80% - I've went over why I think that he has an amazing chance twice now. Here's the latest one. There is still some doubt as I can see him get Assist Trophy treatment; I would give that 18% while just a regular trophy or sticker at 2%.
Shock Value: 50% - When you think of new series that could be represented in Smash, you might think of Shulk immediately. Though, there are some doubters who think that he might not get in. As a result, he ranges from an expected choice from supporters to an absolute shock in some people's eyes.

Chrom
Chance: 75% - Being the new star of the latest and most successful Fire Emblem game, I say that Chrom might get in on these merits. It's pretty critical since Fire Emblem was going to be discontinued if it wasn't successful; Awakening saved the franchise.
Shock Value: 0% - Because of these merits, he seems to be a pretty expected character. He has a good chance of getting in.

Villager
Chance: 60% - Minus the quote, Villager had the best chance of getting in Smash as the AC rep. He is the most recognizable AC character as he is your avatar, after all. If there was going to be an AC rep, it was going to be Villager.
Shock Value: 50% - Villager should have been expected. I mean, it's Animal Crossing! One of Nintendo's most successful franchises! It seems as though people thought that the Villager was done with Sakurai's quote and was shocked when he got in.

Mega Man
Chance: 50% - Sakurai mentioned putting in a Capcom character. Mega Man had the best chance due to his popularity and iconic status, but I would put him down as 50/50. I had a thought that Capcom might interfere and ask for a different character like Ryu.
Shock Value: 0% - People were definitely stoked that he got in, but he wasn't all that shocking in most people's eyes.

Mii
Chance: 50% - Things are looking up for the Mii. They have an iconic status and they may have been hinted at several times. Though, I can see Sakurai be opposed towards putting them in.
Shock Value: 50% - Miis are iconic, but they aren't really expected in some people's eyes. In fact, some people think that they're done.

Chorus Men
Chance: 30% - Without this leak, they are basically nothing. Sakurai may choose them as he would feel interested in working with them in Smash.
Shock Value: 100% - This is the final shock newcomer listed here. People are expecting them because of the leak while others doubt them and thus think that the leak is losing its legitimacy. However, if they were shown off at E3, I bet that this will cause a stir.

Wii Fit Trainer
Chance: 5% - I would have given her the benefit of the doubt due to the popularity of Wii Fit, but I never would have thought that she would have gotten in Smash.
Shock Value: 100% - No one predicted this.

Pokemon from X & Y (Greninja)
Chance: 1% - X and Y were too recent in my eyes to warrant a spot. Let me also remind you that the most expected outcome was Brawl Pokemon + Mewtwo. I haven't seen a single roster with Greninja prior to that Direct.
Shock Value: 100% - Another character no one predicted.

When we break it down, we have 3 shocking newcomers, 4 newcomers that are kinda shocking and kinda expected, and 4 expected newcomers. Most of the remaining characters are in a good position, one of them can go either way, and one almost hinges the legitimacy of the leak.
The overall chance of these newcomers happening is 58% while the overall shock value is 45.45%. I averaged these two and ended up 51.73%. This... is my overall chance score.

Chance: 51.73%
The leak has some safe bets and some shocking newcomers. If we look at the leak as a whole, then I say that we nearly have a 50% chance of this leak being real. However, due to the nature of the Wii Fit Trainer, Chorus Men, and Greninja, characters that we didn't expect, it seems as though that the legitimacy of the leak is on Sal Romano's side. I can see this go either way, but I'm leaning more towards it being real. We should keep a close eye at what happens at E3.
Want: 100%
I don't care about most of the remaining newcomers. I could care less if Palutena and Chrom make it in, I'm fine either way with Pac-Man, I'm iffy on the Chorus Men, and I absolutely detest the Miis. While I say all of this, I am willing to take all of these characters just for one.

Spoiler

Not having Shulk in Smash is an absolute crime. The roster would feel incomplete to me if he doesn't make it in. He is my most wanted newcomer and one of my favorite video game characters of all-time. I am willing to accept Miis even just so that I can have Shulk in Smash. Even then, I'm already ecstatic that two characters within my top ten are in Smash (Little Mac and Villager).
While I am disappointed that Bandana Dee and King K. Rool aren't listed, I know that the characters in the Gematsu Leak aren't the only newcomers left as evidenced by Rosalina, so there is hope.
Overall... Sakurai, lend me the Monado's power in Smash! PLEASE! This would be the best birthday present ever!

Savvy Stylist
Chance: 0%
I was going to be cheap and say "Oh yeah, Savvy Stylist? Double zeroes", but I need to say that this is a horrible character for Sakurai to choose. We've got our share of shocking newcomers, but none of them have been like this. I bet that he wouldn't put in this character over more requested ones like Shulk, King K. Rool, Ridley, Bandana Dee, among others. Even if there is a shallow reason for "MORE FEMALES," let me list you some that should get in Smash before Savvy Stylist does.

Spoiler

Palutena
Medusa
Viridi (and she's a stage hazard!)
Dixie Kong
Adeline from Kirby 64
Daisy
Hikari
Lip
Mona
Ashley
Anna
Micaiah
Lucina
Kumatora
Paula
Fiora from Xenoblade
Krystal
Mother Brain
Dark Samus
Tetra
Toon Zelda
Impa
Jody Summers
Isabelle
Sami

There are far, far better options for females. This is grasping for straws.
Want: -100% (0%)
I hate this idea as much as I hate the idea of Miis, Cloud Strife, Sora, and Reggie getting into Smash. Yes, it's that bad. If Savvy Stylist got in, I would highly be questioning Sakurai's choices. Why Savvy Stylist over the other females that I've mentioned? Why her over characters that have actual fan demand? This is a cruel and stupid joke.

Veteran Downgraded Prediction: 82.15%
This happened before, it's bound to happen again.
Micaiah Prediction: 1.40%
I sense that she will get decimated.

Nominations: No Brawl Cuts 5x

Our want for the leak hinge upon Shulk. You want him in no matter what and I want him out no matter what. Let's see who wins in the end. (hint: it will most likely be you.)

 

[Robertman2]

Leak: 80%
Style Savvy: 1%

 

[Deleted member]

It really irritates me to see people giving the Gematsu leak 100% chances. Seriously, you aren't even willing to acknowledge the possibility that they are wrong? A 99 or a 98% is fine, but a character like chorus men is far from confirmed. Likewise, giving the leak a 0% isn't acceptable either, especially after they got WFT right.

Then what exactly does the leak have going against it?

 

[The Light Music Club]

Then what exactly does the leak have going against it?

Let's not start this here. For the love of all things good. There is no one, except for those who actually work on the game, and the leaker that know this is either 100% true or 100% false. Only they know for sure. This is just a game of guessing.

 

[False Sense]

Then what exactly does the leak have going against it?

The nature of the leak being only characters means that there can't be anything against it; if there was, it would be proven false then and there. But just because we can't disprove it doesn't necessarily make it true.

 

[Xenigma]

Kinda like how BluePikmin11 doesn't like seeing 0%s with no explanation on Savvy Stylist (an unfortunate side effect of being rated on this day), it's awfully disappointing to see 100%s on the Gematsu leaks with no real arguments behind them. You feel that strongly, good for you, but at least try to explain your side like several of the doubters (and even some 50%+ raters) have so we can understand your position better.

 

[Deleted member]

As I've warned everyone before, keep things civil.
Whether the Gematsu leak is real is all up to how you interpret it. No matter how you do, the evidence is still the same for everyone.

 

[The Light Music Club]

Geez, the arguments over these chances. God, when Micaiah gets ranked tomorrow and people see the chance I'm giving her, I'm gonna get beaten with a stick and spat on.

 

[UnicornDemon]

Gematsu Leak
Chance: 50%
Could go either way. The main detractor is the fact that Pokemon from X/Y is a bit too vague, in that Mewtwo could have been announced instead of Greninja and the leak still would have been legitimate. Apart from Generation I iterations, X and Y are the only Pokemon games in which one can catch Mewtwo, so it technically is an X and Y Pokemon. The only impressive evidence the leak has so far is Wii Fit Trainer. Little Mac, Mega-man, and an Animal Crossing Rep were all front-runners for Smash 4.

Apart from that, it seems possible. Predicting Wii Fit Trainer to appear at E3 is an accomplishment, despite Sal's E3 prediction not being exactly right. All of the unannounced newcomers have a decent chance. After doing some research, I was surprised to find that Rhythm Heaven on the 3DS was actually really successful, particularly in Japan. It sold over 3 million worldwide, which is more than what Kid Icarus: Uprising sold (1.13 m). Also, the fact that none of the unannounced newcomers have been disconfirmed makes the leak more likely.

The reason I'm not rating it higher is simply because, with all of the thousands of fake leaks out there, there's also the possibility that this person just had a lucky guess in an ocean of bad guesses.

Want: 15%
I'm not a big fan of Miis or Chrom. The others are alright I suppose. Chorus Men have potential to be unique, and I've warmed up to Pac-man.

Style Savvy
Chance: 0.1%
Want: 0%
Wouldn't even make for a funny WTF character.

Nomz: Lanky Kong x5

Predicts:
Micaiah- 1.25%
Veteran Downgrade- 84.3%

 

[NickerBocker]

Gematsu Leak
Chance: 42.5%
Want: 50%

While I think this leak may have some things correct, there are other things that, to me, raises some eyebrows. I do have to say that whether or not this leak is true, it has really consumed the whole speculation community.

One thing I would like to mention is that in order for this leak to be true, for me, will be if Chorus Men are confirmed. Of course all the other characters are very complimentary, the real test at this point will be if Chorus men are in. Characters like Palutena, Chrom, Shulk, etc. anyone could have guessed, so its really the shock characters that will be the test, as WFT was for the earlier leak. The leak before E3 was interesting because Villager and WFT, 2 characters that people either didn't consider or thought had no chance, became playable. Now we have Greninja, a character who we thought had no chance, and Chorus Men, who no one even considered. What ends up happening is really hard to predict for several reasons.

First, it being a leak, it should always be treated as such. Even when getting some things correct, and some things are still up in the air, we cannot say whether or not it is true. Also, in my eyes for it to be legitimate, ALL information must be true, otherwise we would have so many correct "leaks" with bits and pieces of information correct.

Second, it being a Smash Bros leak, there are thousands of others as well that all claim to be true for a multitude of reasons. We can't automatically think that because it guessed one character that no one else thought of that it is correct for sure, although it does help its purposes. But we also have to consider that it may be correct due to redundancy, which does not help its cause. There are thousands of Smash "leaks", there has to have been one person who guessed someone like WFT.

Third, there is some information that has either been diluted or not necessarily correct in the leak. Thinking about "X/Y Pokemon" which could fit a large number of character additions so its pretty vague, as well as claiming that there would be 6 reveals at E3, which there was only 3, and one later on (Still waiting on Pacman and Mii)

Finally, apparently the source is impressively credible and has other leaks being true under his belt.

So I think if we can consider these things, its clearly not 100%, nor zero, as most leaks will end up correlating with the final roster, but never be completely true. I personally don't think it is completely true, so I will give it below a 50%. There's just too many questions I have with the vague/incorrect information, and it being a leak I will take it with many grains of salt.

Provided that there are other character additions other than what's in the leak than I am okay with it.

Savvy Stylist
Chance: 3%
Want: 0%

I could maybe, MAYBE, see this happen, but it is an incredibly niche series and not very well known. Also, please no, I don't think it qualifies as a Nintendo allstar in the way that many of the characters we have do.

Veteran Downgrade: 23.3%
Micaiah: 3.4%

Crono x5


I would also like to add that people can reasonably say 0% or 100% for whatever reasons they wish. However, it sort of irks me when someone drops a certain percent without reasoning. It could be as simple as giving a 0% and saying "I dont believe any leaks" or a 100% and saying "the evidence is very good." Just adding some reasoning, as little as it may be, can be very beneficial when reading these ratings.

 

[SpiderJerusalem]

Gematsu Leak
Chance: 70%
It's really looking that way for the Gematsu Leak, because so far they have been on point. Chorus Men are the only thing in that leak that could invalidate the leak.
Want: 70%
I don't care for Chrom or Palutena (there are other characters from their respective games I'd rather have), nor do I dislike them, but everybody else is fine by me.

Savvy Stylist
Chance: 1%
lol
Want: 0%
lol

 

[LoneKonWolf]

gematsu leak (chance and want) - abstain
I never take leaks as chances when rating, they are gains compared, so don't even know how to place one by itself, i'm just going to have to past on this one
savvy stylist - 0.1%
. . .
savvy stylist - 0%
I feel like its a joke that has gone on to long
veteran downgraded - 34.85%
I don't know how this'll play out.
micaiah - 0.74%
doomed
nominations:
Mr. ResettiX5

 

[Smasher 101]

Gematsu leak: 30% - I'm not really a believer in the leak, but it's possible that it's true.
Want: 50% - Two I want (Chrom and Palutena), two I don't want (Chrous Kids and Mii), two I don't care about (Shulk and Pac-Man). Ends up as this.

Savvy Stylist's chances: 0.5% - I think there are plenty of series that would be given playable characters before this.
Want: 0% - No.

Veteran Downgraded: 48.19% - Squirtle and Ivysaur will help this get a decently high score.
Micaiah prediction: 7.29% - Most will give her low scores, but there will be a higher one or two that will raise it up.

Jill x5

 

[TeenGirlSquad]

Savvy Stylist

Chance: 1%
Want: 100%

 

[Deleted member]

Kinda like how BluePikmin11 doesn't like seeing 0%s with no explanation on Savvy Stylist (an unfortunate side effect of being rated on this day), it's awfully disappointing to see 100%s on the Gematsu leaks with no real arguments behind them. You feel that strongly, good for you, but at least try to explain your side like several of the doubters (and even some 50%+ raters) have so we can understand your position better.

There's really not anything going against the Gematsu leak if we're going to be transparent here. People come up with the worst possible arguments to justify their position, yet these can be easily blown away without much efforts. Those who argue against the leak because they don't like that X characters is in/x character is not in yet are clearly arguing out of untransparent bias and really, that's why most people are giving it such low chances. There is not a single strong counterargument against the leak; the only two legitimates one are:

1. Pac-Man, Mii, and Little Mac weren't shown at E3.
2. Vague description of Pokémon X & Y.

The first can be explained by outdated information. Sal Romano mentioned Villager as "Animal Crossing Guy", so it's likely that plans changed to where Pac-Man, Mii, and Little Mac weren't going to be at E3. As for the second argument, again, the information was outdated. There has also been precedence where there was initially a slot for a character in a franchise (Fire Emblem character in Brawl) and eventually became a character (Fire Emblem character became Ike). It's very likely Pokémon X & Y was a placeholder and that Greninja was selected after the game released.

Plus with Wii Fit Trainer, a character no one guessed, being confirmed and being right every time so far, I will be beyond shocked if the Gematsu leak turns out to be a fluke. The only thing I'm waiting on is if we get a third leak and if so, what's on that.

 

[The Light Music Club]

There's really not anything going against the Gematsu leak if we're going to be transparent here. People come up with the worst possible arguments to justify their position, yet these can be easily blown away without much efforts. Those who argue against the leak because they don't like that X characters is in/x character is not in yet are clearly arguing out of untransparent bias and really, that's why most people are giving it such low chances. There is not a single strong counterargument against the leak; the only two legitimates one are:

1. Pac-Man, Mii, and Little Mac weren't shown at E3.
2. Vague description of Pokémon X & Y.

The first can be explained by outdated information. Sal Romano mentioned Villager as "Animal Crossing Guy", so it's likely that plans changed to where Pac-Man, Mii, and Little Mac weren't going to be at E3. As for the second argument, again, the information was outdated. There has also been precedence where there was initially a slot for a character in a franchise (Fire Emblem character in Brawl) and eventually became a character (Fire Emblem character became Ike). It's very likely Pokémon X & Y was a placeholder and that Greninja was selected after the game released.

Plus with Wii Fit Trainer, a character no one guessed, being confirmed and being right every time so far, I will be beyond shocked if the Gematsu leak turns out to be a fluke. The only thing I'm waiting on is if we get a third leak and if so, what's on that.

Did you miss the part where I said "Let's not start this here"? If you want to start a back and forth argument/discussion that's fine. But this really isn't the place for that.

 

[Louie G.]

Sal Romano: 80%
Alright, let's face it. Nobody could guess Wii Fit Trainer for E3, let alone the other two alongside her.
Everyone's basically said what I feel, so I find it very likely, yes.

Want: 80%
I really love some of the characters in this leak. Palutena, Shulk, and Chorus Men are awesome additions.

Savvy Stylist: 0%
No.

Want: -10%
If this happens I will eat my shorts, sell my Nintendo consoles and swim to Japan to punch Sakurai in the face.
But it won't happen so I'm good.

Not really sure what downgraded veterans means, so I'll pass for now. Micaiah gets a 1.5% from me.

Noms: Ridleh x5

 

[KatKit]

Savvy Stylist

Chance: 1%
Want: 100%

This. It has a snowball's chance in hell of happening, and that is understandable, for countless reasons. However, it's still possible.

While it seems absolutely futile to explain my support, I will try.

1.) Greatest WTF character OF ALL TIME.
2.) I consider Smash a celebration of all things Nintendo. People are okay with third party characters, so long as they are iconic, but they have a problem with characters that are published and (partly) developed by Nintendo because it doesn't suit their cup of tea? I know that there are wayyyy better choices, but there's no need to exclude this franchise. There's a lot of potential for something unique and fun.
3.) Only Smash can pull off having bounty hunters, ninjas, psychic children, an 8 inch blob that eats everything and copies abilities, princesses, pilots, monkeys, fitness instructors, dinosaurs, robots, an 8-bit everyman, etc. duking it out. Throwing in a mundane stylist is oddly fitting since the roster as diverse as it gets. If you never played the games, Smash gives you the chance to see a character represented in a new light, while simultaneously showcasing things from said games.
4.) Snapshots and costumes... just two of many things that Smash has in common w/ Style Savvy.
5.) Smash is like a group of kids making their GI Joe, Transformers, Power Rangers, and Marvel/DC toys fight each other. I was the girl who brought dolls to those kinds of fights and I didn't give a care in the world because I was having fun with my friends. Smash is like that, with its crossover appeal and I can relate to Savvy Stylist.
6.) Lots of material they can work with for a viable moveset, believe it or not. No pun intended.
7.) Alot of classic franchise representation. That is wonderful, and we could use a lot more of it, but newer ones need love, too.

 

[cephalopod17]

Gematsu Leak

Chance: 45%
Everyone in this leak except for Chorus Men and Wii Fit Trainer are safe bets. Still the fact he said "Animal Crossing Guy" and "Pokémon from Animal Crossing" are suspicious. Maybe he was not familiar with Animal Crossing or Pokémon. Choir Boys are an odd choice, sure Wii Fit Trainer was odd, but we usually only have one random character per game. This leak is relying on Chorus Men. Another fact is that he did not predict Rosalina. We will see at E3.

Want: 50%
On the pro side, I really want Palutena and Shulk and it would be cool seeing Pac-Man and Chrom. On the con side, Chorus Men and Miis seem like bad choices. Not to mention lack of Ridley and K. Rool. Especially K. Rool. It is very possible that he only new some of the newcomers, as evidenced by Rosalina, so that's why I am neutral on it.

Savvy Stylist

Chance: .01%
Every Nintendo character has a chance.

Want: 0%
No thanks

Veteran Downgraded: 60%
Micaiah prediction: 5%

Nominations: Fawful x2, Mr. Resetti x3

 

[DustyPumpkin]

Wow a lot of dislike for Savvy Stylist, I'd say none of you shouldn't get any discounts, but the new REVOCS Brand clothing lines would look great on you. (◡‿◡✿)

They're fitting, slimming, with plenty of pockets to keep all of your things, yes even for the ladies, they're comfy and easy to wear, woo you desired partner much easier with this new attractive line, come buy some new REVOCS Style clothing today, you certainly won't regret it~

 

[Leafeon523]

Gematsu Leak

Chance: 45%
Everyone in this leak except for Chorus Men and Wii Fit Trainer are safe bets. Still the fact he said "Animal Crossing Guy" and "Pokémon from Animal Crossing" are suspicious.

Having a Pokémon from animal crossing would be VERY suspicious indeed

 

[Burigu]

Gematsu leak:
Chance 65%
Nothing new to really say here, the leak got 3 characters right, at this point I would give the leak a 100% if Chorus Men are officially revealed since is one of the "wtf" characters on the list, but any other like Palutena or Chrom revealed would increase the chances in my eyes.

Want 79%
The leak has some characters that I don't care at all like Chorus Men other that I don't really want: Mii, the others I am ok with them, as long as the leak is real and I get Palutena, the rest can be anything, in the past games I didn't care about posible characters I wanted, I was ok with anything I got (except Snake I don't like him in smash), but this time around I am routing for Palutena and really want her if I got her this time around, as long as she is not cut next game, I am not really sure I will care about anyother character in the game ever. Yes my bias is strong it can't be helped.

Savvy Stylist
Chance 2%
Sakurai had gone with an "odd ball" in the past, but this one is extremely odd, we already got the shoking unexpected reveal with WFT so maybe next time?

Want 25%
I find this character extremely unlikely and a bit to niche, but I would be a hipocrite if I say this character has no potencial or no fitting of a fighting game like Smash, where you get almost everything, so if she is considered or make to the game as odd as it would be to me, I would be alright with her in the game, in this game any character has potencial, otherwise my score would be lower for her. Basically uniqueness factor here

Nominations.
Kid Icarus Uprising Girl x5

Predictions
Veteran downgrade: 45%
Micaiah: 12%

 

[Deleted member]

And really, A Bunch of people actually believe that leak is like in the 90's percent of being true, and you thought wanting a fun character like Savvy Stylist was silly, ha.

Don't come in this thread to say this. This is basically trying to start a flame war.
KEEP THINGS CIVIL.

 

[DustyPumpkin]

Don't come in this thread to say this. This is basically trying to start a flame war.
KEEP THINGS CIVIL.

Yeah, I guess That was pretty rude of me, sorry.

 

[Deleted member]

Yeah, I guess That was pretty rude of me, sorry.

It's OK. I've just been monitoring this whole day. With a controversial topic like the Gematsu leak, we really don't want to cause flame wars and debates in here about it. That would make this whole thread un-fun for everyone!

 

[AustarusIV]

*Sigh* I'll give it a go.

Gematsu leak

Chance: 50%
It all hinges on whether Chorus Kids is confirmed to be playable. Palutena and Chrom are already guaranteed spots, and Shulk is a likely enough candidate to be considered plausible. But the Chorus Kids will be the next Wii Fit Trainer, and I don't think that many people will be receptive of him like last time.

Want: 0%

Abstain on Savy Stylist.

 

[Sid-cada]

Gematsu Leak

Chance - 15% - Possible, but I have a bit of a major nitpick. I find it suspicious that we have several Mii-related stages, yet a proper symbol for the Miis have not been shown yet. The Tomodachi Life stage is the last chance I'm giving them. If that does not have a genneric Mii symbol at that point, I'm calling them (and the entire leak) discomfirmed.

Want - 0.85% - Palutena's the only charater I wish from the leak, and she's got a stronger one beside this one. I already got Little Mac, don't care for Shulk, dislike Chrom and Pac-Man, and despise the Miis. Oh, and who the heck thought of the Chorus Kids?


Savvy Stylist

Chance - 0% - ... Can't something else do just a good job of representing the sereis? A stage, some music, an ittem... anything at all, really.

Want - 0% - What a waste.


Predictions

Veterain Downgraded - 17.45% - Poor Squirtle...

Micaiah - 2.35% - Going, Going,, Gone.


Nomination
Anna X5

 

[Typs]

Gematsu leak:
Chance 55%
I'm really on the fence about this leak, it predicted the unexpected WFT, which makes it ,without a doubt, the most credible leak around, however it could have been a lucky guess, and the other characters it got right were either predictable or given a vague description. I'll give this leak above average chance for the WFT part, for info i would give something like 10% chance for any other "leak"

Want 80%
No character that i hate, and some character that i want, it this leak is true i'll be happy with it.

Savvy Stylist
Chance 0.0001%
...
At least she is more likely than goku.

Want 0.1%
For me a 0% want means that i won't buy the game if this character gets in, if she does i will think a lot before buying the game... But i would still buy it.

 

[Deleted member]

Did you miss the part where I said "Let's not start this here"? If you want to start a back and forth argument/discussion that's fine. But this really isn't the place for that.

Xenigma asked for my explanations and I gave it to him. If he wants to discuss this, I will glady take it to the Sal Romano/Gematsu leak thread.

 

[Headcrab Jackalope]

The God Forsaken Evil Hotly Debated Terrifying Boring Musical Weird Hair Color Lucky Impossible Guess Shenanigan-filled Customizable Pellet Chomping Time Warping Leak

Chance: 49%- WFT is the only thing that gets it this high for me. I feel like the leaker had information about E3, but came up with the second leak on his own.

Want: 30%- It's got Palutena and Shulk, but the rest are kind of meh for me. Chorus Men might be cool.

Savvy Stylist

Chance: 7.4%- Seems like a character that could be a classic "Sakurai-branded shock character" but she's still pretty unlikely.

Want: 80%- The movesets I've seen for her involve giant shoes and selfies. I think this alone makes her amazing.

Predictions

Veteran Downgrade: 30%
Micaiah: 7.9%

Nominations

Petey Piranha x5

 

[Opossum]

Did you miss the part where I said "Let's not start this here"? If you want to start a back and forth argument/discussion that's fine. But this really isn't the place for that.

I don't see anything wrong with what he did. He explained his thought process and was civil about it without going overboard.

Now onto my post!

The leakiest leak of all leaks that ever leaked - 100% A la Swampasaur.

It's real, people. I've said it before, and I'll surely say it again. You don't just guess the Wii Fit Trainer. He was tipped off.

And just saying...to those assuming that "Animal Crossing Guy" was just for an AC character in general, "guy" is really only used to refer to a male human. Villager didn't have an official name prior to SSB4 (heck, even his trophy is "Animal Crossing Boy" in Brawl).

Want: 100%
Chrom, Palutena, and Pac-Man are 3/4 of my current most wanted. Shulk and Chorus Kids, while I'm not going to lose sleep if they don't get in, are great additions, in my book. Miis are still eh, but Tomodatchi made me like them more.


Savvy Stylist gets a 0/0 for reasons previously stated.

 

[Bravetriforcer]

Savvy Stylist

Want: 0%
Chances: 1%

You'd think they'd have a 0% chance overall, but it is Sakurai.

Gematsu Leak (Assuming those 11 + Rosalina are all newcomers)

Want: 10%

No Ridley, No K. Rool, no Paper Mario, and no true Retro rep. What gives? Palutena, Chrom, and maybe Chorus Men seem cool though.

Chance: 50%

Has as much going for it as going against it because, believe it or not, it's not impossible Sal's source is bunk or Sal himself got really lucky and ran with it. I call it a coin flip until Chorus Men are confirmed, then it's absolutely true.

 

[Spinosaurus]

Seeing the Chorus Kids hate makes me sad.

Sad that there are so many people who lack joy in their life from not playing Rhythm Heaven.