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[Xenigma]

Reading Groose's want ratings today leaves me with a thought: once the game actually releases or the full roster is otherwise confirmed, will this thread transition to some sort of satisfaction/roster review to conclude? Would be fun to look back and see if we agree with their choices once we have the full picture.

Micaiah - 1%
Micaiah feels like a great third Fire Emblem character, with the presumptive second slot being Ike or an Awakening character. Problem is, it appears to be fairly late in the reveal process with the 3DS release supposedly coming in the next few months and we've still only got Marth for Fire Emblem. That seems to indicate Fire Emblem may not actually get three characters, and with Micaiah already having to compete with the likes of Chrom, Lucina, Robin, Ike, Roy, and possibly even more, it's difficult to envision how Micaiah would manage to make it through to the playable roster at this point.
Want - 100% - Would be an extremely pleasant surprise if this were to come to pass, even if she isn't my top pick for the franchise. Would be a very refreshing change of pace for Fire Emblem characters in Smash, especially compared to Brawl's pair of blue-haired lords.

I think I'll abstain from touching the "downgraded veteran" concept as I'm not exactly sure what it's supposed to mean, though if the idea is "old playable character is now AT/Pokeball/trophy/costume/???", especially if it's not just Brawl veterans, it seems absurdly likely.

 

[Deleted member]

Nearly 50% in both chance and want? That's interesting... it honestly reflects the divisive nature of the leak. No chance and want score could have a more interesting outcome than this.
Demoted Veteran and Micaiah have been added to the Directory.
If you have rated Micaiah before, check to see what you said on her day!

Demoted Veteran
Chance: 95%
I'm going by what Brawl did. Let's look at the roles of the cut veterans in Brawl:
Mewtwo: Became nothing more than a trophy.
Pichu: Same fate as Mewtwo
Roy: He just had a sticker and his song appears in the game on the Castle Siege stage.
Dr. Mario: His Melee theme returns as well as a new track appearing in this game.
Young Link: Outright cut and replaced by Toon Link.
I expect the same fate to happen to certain characters. Particularly, this is going to probably happen to veterans who are at risk. Wolf and Lucas have to worry less so in my eyes, but the real attention is to Ike and the Pokemon characters. Ike could make it in the game as a trophy and his theme would be preserved while Chrom takes his place. Most of the Pokemon characters are at risk. Pokemon Trainer Red is the only cut veteran thus far; he can only make it in as a trophy or sticker now. Squirtle and Ivysaur are in very tricky situations; there s a small chance that they will be playable, but their best chance of getting in Smash are being Poke Ball Pokemon, trophies, or stickers.
Now, I can't see any veteran be an Assist Trophy; Melee veteran Roy could return as this if Sakurai wants him to make an appearance and can't have him be playable in Smash. As for the other characters like Wario or Ness... I can't see that.
I expect some veterans to get this treatment.
Want: Abstain
I can't rate my want on this. I want several unconfirmed characters to never get cut (Captain Falcon, Ness, Mr. Game & Watch, Ganondorf, Wario, and Meta Knight), but I also want to have some cuts to free up roster space (Squirtle and Ivysaur). Yet, at the same time, a demoted veteran is a terrible fate that I hate to see...
So, I want some cuts, but I would hate to see a demoted veteran. I just can't place my want on something like this.

Micaiah
Chance: 1%
Honestly, the only things going for her are uniqueness and popularity from Radiant Dawn. However, this doesn't translate well with requests... and it doesn't help that there is a lot of competition in the Fire Emblem series (heck, one of them was potentially leaked). I can't see her get in, but she's holding on by a thread.
Want: 65%
I don't care for Fire Emblem reps...
But please! I will take any Fire Emblem newcomer that can bring something different in terms of gameplay!

Slime Prediction: 6.06%
Did anything really change?
Anna Prediction: 7.77%
There isn't much for her to hold onto right now. However, I sense that her supporters will come in and try to save her scores.

Nominations: Dr. Eggman 5x
Since we are close to rating Spyro, I feel obligated in nominating Crash Bandicoot... but I wanna rate Eggman purely because of the music.
I am going to stop nominating No Brawl Cuts. I already nominated a controversial concept, I rather not nominate another.

 

[The Light Music Club]

Oh boy oh boy! Been waiting for this all week!

Demoted Veteran: 99% - I think Dr. Mario will be an alt in this game for sure
Want: 0% - I rather they cut Mario and kept Dr. Mario. It's not fun seeing Roy and Dr. Mario (two of my mains) get cut, and I would hate to see them and the two pokes demoted.

Now on to the important stuff.

Micaiah
Chance: 65% (I have her on my prediction roster)

Ok I know, this might seem a bit high but there are several reasons I think this.
1. IT may not have pushed Chrom because they started development before the Awakening game came out. Since Awakening might not have sold well, and ended Fire Emblem, they may have pushed for a character they know would be seen world wide, the most recent main character of a world wide Fire Emblem
2. Sakurai seems to be pushing for females. Lyn is deconfirmed and made the most sense to represent the females in Fire Emblem. The only other female to be the poster child for a World Wide Fire Emblem game was Micaiah
3. Sakurai seems to be pushing for characters with fun movesets. Chrom seems like he would most likely be a Ike and Marth fusion. That wouldn't be too fun to make! Also, I'm convinced Ike is in so the argument of "can't have Micaiah before Ike" doesn't make sense. Both would be in..
4. There is a fan base. If you look up so of the SSBB announcers extra clips he made some for popular characters. Along side guys like Ridley, Bowser Jr. , King K Rool, and Isacc, there is also Micaiah!
5. Look at Olimar. He missed the cut off from Melee just barely. He was in Brawl. Micaiah barely missed Brawl (That might be a bit weak)
6. Look at Awakening's DLC. The first "Value Pack" consists of the all important Marth, the ever popular Roy, and oh look Micaiah. I think IT must like her to go and put her with those two very popular characters.
7. Roy was cut from the last stages of Brawl (He's on the disc!). That means Fire Emblem had a possibility for three characters. This time it would make sense for them to add one more to the franchise with such a large cast. I highly doubt Sakurai would have four Sword wielding males represent such a large and diverse cast of characters.
8. Aside from Greninja (Extra Recent) and Mega Man (3rd Party), look who has gotten picked as Newcomers. Rosalina, Wii Fit Trainer, Villager, and Little Mac. When the game was announced, all of their most recent games had been released for Wii. Micaiah is from maybe not one of the most best selling Wii games, but one that is rated highly in terms of reviews.

I think that's all I really have for now.

Want: 1000000000% (100%)

Even if Pac-Man, Mii, and Chrom were in this game, Micaiah and Palutena would still make it a must buy.

Predictions:
Slime: 10% - I don't see how he can beat Neku or Crono for Square
Anna: 15% - Micaiah is backed up by Anna as best FE Female choice

Nominations:
Ayumi x 5

The wants for Micaiah so far are over 50% which I'm very happy about. Let's get her on that top 10!

 

[andimidna]

Nice! Micaiah!
Well, due to the majority of major Fire Emblem characters being Awakening DLC, and her fanbase not even being all that in love with her appearance there-- she's not exactly.... "in the news" or "marketable"
I expect Awakening to get it's special treatment...
And well, I'm not really confident about Micaiah at all.
She's unique. Pretty popular.
But she was a bit too late for Brawl, which lead to her only getting a sticker. And while Radiant Dawn needs something, my bet's on an updated Ike design, like how we have Shadow Dragon Marth.
[collapse=Fire Emblem characters]
I'm currently ranking FE characters:
Marth- 100%
Chrom- 84%
Ike- 73.5%
Robin- 51.5%
Anna- 29.5%
Lucina- 16.5%
Roy- 9%
Micaiah- 6.5%
Tharja- 2%
Leif- 0.1%
Tiki and Lyn- 0% ;_; [/collapse]

So, Chance: 6.5%

Sadly, I'm not seeing it happening.

[collapse=Fire Emblem characters want]
My current want: (confirmed not included)
Tiki- 100% ;_;
Anna- 100%
Lucina- 99%
Micaiah- 94%
Lyn- 74.5% ;_;
Robin- 72.5%
Chrom- 51.5%
Ike- 50.5%
Tharja- 37.5%
Leif- 35.5%
Roy- 0.1% [/collapse]

So, Want: 94%
I like her and her moveset and her series and.... I think she'd be great in Smash.

Demoted Veteran:
Chance: 80%
Squirtle is going to be a trophy. He has to be. He's pretty popular.
Ivysaur might be too. They should be equal.
Want: well, I think Squirtle and Ivy are done, and I guess I still want them in the game somehow, so... 70%

Slime: 5.00%
I don't think very many will rate him above 10... and then there will be those few giving him 0s for something like "just being a blob, he can't fight"
Anna: $11.00
Vaati went up. So who knows? She may see an increase because Tiki is out of her way, or a decrease because Chrom has become bigger competition.

x2 Bayonetta
x1 Medusa
x2 Ayumi

 

[Smasher 101]

The extra nominations post has been updated. And this time I'm going to post my ratings now!

Demoted Veteran: 60% - Squirtle and Ivysaur are out imo. I wouldn't be too surprised if one/both was demoted to Poke Ball 'mon.
Want: 20% - I would prefer if Lucas returned, but if he were to be demoted, I wouldn't mind that much. The same applied to the Trainer, and now that he's gone I'd rather Ivysaur and Squirtle not come back. Them being Poke Ball mons wouldn't bother me at all. I'd hate for anyone else to be demoted though, which causes my want to be low.

Micaiah's chances: 0.5% - Faces really tough competition from Ike, Chrom, Roy, Robin, Lucina, and maybe Anna, when three spots isn't even a guarantee. Doesn't help that she shares her game with Ike. I can't see her being playable.
Want: 20% - Eh.

Slime prediction: 4.13% - Not much of a difference. I don't really see why we needed to rate him again to be honest.
Anna prediction: 7.15% - Should drop.

Jill x5. I'll get her up there eventually.

 

[Freduardo]

Demoted Veteran:

Chance: 100%
Very likely either by Dr. Mario being an alt costume, Squirtle or Ivysaur being inside a poke ball, a group of pichu's being a stage hazard....

Or the reason I say 100% the chance of young link being a trophy. Or Dr. Mario being a trophy. Or Roy being a trophy. Or Pichu or Mewtwo being trophies. Or any vets who do get cut being a trophy. Though honestly ATs at the very least preferred for this demotion, it's guaranteed at least one of them will be a trophy. I'm pretty sure melee cuts were trophies in brawl. Or stickers. (Just looked a little into this, Mewtwo was a trophy and a pain to earn, you had to clear all star mode on intense.)

Want: 85%

I want the doc mario alt bad enough to go this high, but I'd rather just have infinite characters cause I don't know what excess is.

Micaiah:

Chance: 10%

A very cool character but only dlc in the most recent fire emblem. But she's not Ike, who was the real lead in her games and is a smash brothers veteran. And Fire Emblem hasn't ever had more than two characters, it's extra character being considered expendable enough for the cutting room floor on brawl. Though it would be cool to have a spell caster Fire Emblem character. Though by now she doesn't make any more sense than Levin or Leaf. Or a mamkute or laguz.

Want 50%

It'd be cool to have a fire emblem spell caster, but honestly she's just not the spell caster I'd want to play as. Honestly I'd really like to play as the villain Alvis from Fire Emblem 4 as the spell caster representative.

Nomination:
Fawful x5

 

[colder_than_ice]

Demoted Veteran
Chance: 60% - Because cut veterans still need to be put to work.
Want: 50% - I don't care either way.

Micaiah
Chance: 1% - I can't see Radiant Dawn getting another rep. It's seven years old, sold poorly compared to other Fire Emblem games, and Awakening is huge right now.
Want: 40% - I have a love/hate view of this character.

Slime prediction: 3.4%
Anna Prediction: $7.77

Nominations: Captain Toad x5

 

[andimidna]

Anna Prediction: $7.77

I'm stealing this.

 

[Chandeelure]

-Demoted Veteran: Abstain

-Micaiah:
Chances: 2%
Want: 50%

-Nominations: Isaac X5

 

[Kalimdori]

Demoted Veteran
Chance: 100%
I hate that I'm so sure of this, but look at Brawl. Every veteran, save Young Link (Who was flat out replaced), still appeared in some form or another. The only 3 characters I am sure are cut at this point are the Pokemon Trainer and his Pokemon. I'm positive Red will appear as a trophy/sticker, and I expect Squirtle and Ivysaur to do the same.

Want: 50%
On one hand it's nice to see characters like Pichu still represented, you still get his adorable face without the cringing that comes from playing as him. On the other hand, seeing Mewtwo as a trophy with the knowledge that he was the most complete character not put in the game SUCKED. So, 50/50, could like it, could hate it, honestly depends on the character.

Micaiah
Chance: 2.5%
And sadly, that might be overrating her. She was only featured in a grand total of one game, and was featured alongside Ike, who obviously beats her in terms of getting into Smash Bros. There is another more viable magic user in the form of Robin. And those 2 combined with Chrom and the highly demanded but unlikely Roy, there is little to no chance that she could get a slot. Not impossible, but there is so much working against her that it is highly improbable.

Want: 87%
I liked Micaiah. She was a cool character in Radiant Dawn (Liked her more then Ike) and has enormous potential to be unique (Mostly due to the fact that she's not another blue haired sword wielding fire emblem lord). Why isn't she 100%?

He has a shot.... right?..... He's.... recurring.... and a magic user..... and..... um......

I can dream, don't judge me!

Slime: 15% Possible, cool choice, but there are a few characters it would have to get around first.

Anna: 20% I don't see why people rate her so high. She's in every Fire Emblem game sure, but she won't get in over Chrom, Robin, Lucina, etc. Simply because they are recognizable and she is not. They have memorable roles in the games she's in, Anna goes from a side character/merchant (at best) to a tutorial/single cameo.

 

[Toxicroaker]

Demoted Veterans: 25% Ivysaur and Squirtle maybe.
Want: 50% Meh.

1. IT may not have pushed Chrom because they started development before the Awakening game came out. Since Awakening might not have sold well, and ended Fire Emblem, they may have pushed for a character they know would be seen world wide, the most recent main character of a world wide Fire Emblem
2. Sakurai seems to be pushing for females. Lyn is deconfirmed and made the most sense to represent the females in Fire Emblem. The only other female to be the poster child for a World Wide Fire Emblem game was Micaiah
3. Sakurai seems to be pushing for characters with fun movesets. Chrom seems like he would most likely be a Ike and Marth fusion. That wouldn't be too fun to make! Also, I'm convinced Ike is in so the argument of "can't have Micaiah before Ike" doesn't make sense. Both would be in..
4. There is a fan base. If you look up so of the SSBB announcers extra clips he made some for popular characters. Along side guys like Ridley, Bowser Jr. , King K Rool, and Isacc, there is also Micaiah!
5. Look at Olimar. He missed the cut off from Melee just barely. He was in Brawl. Micaiah barely missed Brawl (That might be a bit weak)
6. Look at Awakening's DLC. The first "Value Pack" consists of the all important Marth, the ever popular Roy, and oh look Micaiah. I think IT must like her to go and put her with those two very popular characters.
7. Roy was cut from the last stages of Brawl (He's on the disc!). That means Fire Emblem had a possibility for three characters. This time it would make sense for them to add one more to the franchise with such a large cast. I highly doubt Sakurai would have four Sword wielding males represent such a large and diverse cast of characters.
8. Aside from Greninja (Extra Recent) and Mega Man (3rd Party), look who has gotten picked as Newcomers. Rosalina, Wii Fit Trainer, Villager, and Little Mac. When the game was announced, all of their most recent games had been released for Wii. Micaiah is from maybe not one of the most best selling Wii games, but one that is rated highly in terms of reviews.

1. They got Greninja in so I don't think that matters.
2. Ok.
3. Ok.
4. That was before Awakening the most popular game of the series!
5. Yes, that is a bit weak. Plus, how do you know that she barely missed the cut?
6. Ok.
7. That is true. Fire emblem will most likely get three characters. But there are four and possibly five characters that would out-prioritise her. Chrom, Roy, Robin, Lucina, and possibly Anna.
8. Ok.

Ok. I will admit, you made four semi-decent points. But the other four aren't worth anything. You also missed two major things that hurt her.

1. Fire Emblem Awakening is not only the most recent game in the series, but also the most popular one and it saved the series.
2. The competition. First and foremost, Chrom. He is the main character of Awakening and is widely popular within the casual crowd. Then there is Lucina. She is arguably the second main character of Awakening and is generally more popular. She would also fit the part of a female. We also have Robin. He is the Avatar and is tied for second main character in awakening. Last, but not least, there is Roy. Roy is not only a veteran, but also nearly as popular as Chrom and probably over twice as popular as Micaiah. (To a certain extent there is Anna, but the only thing she has going for her is being a unique female that has been in nearly every game... Nope. She sounds more important and likely.)

I'm going to give Micaiah a 2.5%
Want: 0%

Slime: 4.92%
Anna: 8.12%

x5 Zip

 

[Plain Yogurt]

Abstaining from demoted vets. I have no interest in rating non-characters.

Micaiah:
Chance: 6% It's difficult to imagine her getting in over a character from the game that SAVED THE FRANCHISE. And if Palutena functions as a light magic type of character then Micaiah doesn't really bring much to the table. I give her a few extra points for her main character status though.

Want: 40% I'm not a fan of Micaiah as a character. I'm not a fan of her as a unit. And again if Palutena uses light magic she's pretty redundant. That said, if Palutena showcases KI weapons instead (looking a bit less likely as time goes on...) I'd be cool with her being playable, if only because she actually shows off a Fire Emblem weapon that isn't a sword. Plus she has a cool design.

 

[AustarusIV]

Demoted Veteran

Chance: 100%

It will happen, unfortunately. Ivysaur and Squirtle will most likely just be collectible trophies. Their best bet would be as Pokeball Pokemon. Dunno what's going to happen to the cut veterans, other then getting represented in some vague form.

Want: 50%

It ain't good seeing a beloved character get axed, but at least we can see them in some form.

Micaiah

Chance: 0.5%

She just doesn't have a chance for this game. To put it simply: Chrom will happen. To elaborate, her game sold very poorly in general and she is disliked by a lot of fans for her characterization. The focus of the game will mostly be about Fire Emblem Awakening, which will feature content from that game (other than Marth). Besides, Ike is already Tellius's representative.

Want: 10%

I just plain did not like her at all in Radiant Dawn. I'll give her some points in want simply because she's a Mage, and I would like to see a Fire Emblem character that's not a blue-haired swordsman.

 

[Minato Arisato]

Demoted Veteran

Chance: 50%

I can see it going either way. Because Sakurai.

Want: 0%

Oh heavens, no. That's an insult to the people that loved the character.

Micaiah

Chance: 10%

While it would be interesting to have her be playable, I don't see it happening.

Want: 0%

I was always skeptical of her, and someone turned me off the idea of her being playable. Really, that kind of enthusiasm was kind of scary...

 

[Kenith]

Demoted Veteran:
Chance: 90%. Squirtle and Ivysaur are all but confirmed to not return this time. And the other demoted Pokemon characters from Melee (Mewtwo and Pichu) did get trophies, so I think it's pretty likely for references to those lost characters.

Want: 75%. Quite honestly, I never enjoyed Squirtle and Ivysaur in Brawl as they seemed "tacked on". Trophies or Assist Trophies is a better place for them as there's not quite enough room for newcomers.

Micaiah:

Chance: 20%. Well, she would be outstandingly unique, I give her that, and is somewhat popular. However, her game is already represented by Ike, who basically stole her Thunder towards the end of the game (the opposite of Chrom/Robin's relationship).
And if there's any Fire Emblem game that gets two characters, it's probably going to be the new, popular one, Awakening.

Want: 65%. Sort of indifferent, though she has quite a lot of new abilities to offer, and is also quite cute, so I wouldn't mind having her over any Awakening character (Anna is not an Awakening character specifically)

--------------------------------- Predictions:

Slime: 3.50%. Is he owned by Square? Oh dear. we all know how successful; that will be.
Anna: 25%. She faces the mighty Chrom as her main competition, but there's also a lot in her favor.

--------------------------------- Nominations:

Anna x....wait. Nevermind! She's already being rated.
Aran Ryan x5.

 

[Glaciacott]

Demoted vets
Chance - 100%
Pokemon Trainer. Even if Squirtle and Ivy get lucky or wind up being saved for DLC or something like that, the fact we no longer have transformation characters means that the actual Pokemon Trainer will probably be relegated to Trophy status. This is what makes me certain about this concept.

Want - 50%
No idea how to rate want for this.

Micaiah
Chance - 0.1%
Too much Fire Emblem for her to even begin to measure up to the competition.

Want - 10%
Awakening is the popular Fire Emblem, which is why Chrom is almost most definitely happening. If we're lucky, we get Robin instead. Lucina, perhaps.
Anything outside of Awakening that is not Roy or Ike is, I'm sorry to say, a pipe dream. It ain't going to happen. When it comes to lords, almost every other lord probably has priority to Micaiah. For one, the most popular non-Ike lord in Brawl times was Lyn, and Leif is another lord that was even considered before dropped for Roy. Micaiah is completely overshadowed in her story line by Ike, and even if we wanted someone from Tellius we'd probably have the likes of Black Knight, Soren, and Sothe be considered as well. Just within that continent's storyline.
To further add insult to injury, the one thing that she had to set her apart, light magic, is most certainly going to be done better by a much more likely candidate, Palutena.

So in the end Micaiah has nothing. Her potential moveset could easily be recreated by Palutena. She has no particular sense of specialty in her franchise, barely even in her game. There was a mention of her appearing in DLC but hey ... SO DID ALMOST EVERY OTHER LORD AND NOTABLE CHARACTER FROM THE SERIES. The packs were still themed after Marth and Roy, so yea, this argument is useless. Even in her series there's a bunch of other characters who I see as being more notable, desires and that would contribute to Smash.

I do give her 10% for liking her design and actual character. I actually really do like Micaiah, I just think her having a shot at a roster spot is sheer optimism, and if we're being optimistic then let's begin demanding Nephenee for Smash. Or Joshua from Sacred Stones. Or freaking Henry just laughing and punning as part of his moveset.
But on the other hand, let's not because clearly, judging from freaking Ilyana being nominated, people already have that mentality. SIGH, Ilyana???

Predictions
Slime - 11%
Anna - 7.45%
I genuinely do not understand why we are rerating these characters. Slime I could see an argument for given tweets and comments about localization of DQ, but I still don't see any certainty it will happen within the next year and a half. Anna I'm even more perplexed about.

Nominations
x5 NFC Smash Trophies
(btw, thanks for the help everyone!)

 

[loganhogan]

Demoted veteran
chance 95% want 100%

A lot of cut veterans were referenced in Brawl, the only way to really hurt their fanbase is by demoting the character to an assist but being referenced as a trophy should be alright.

Micaiah
chance 12.5% want 90%

Micaiah's chance depends if Ike is cut or not and if Sakurai wants to give us someone that is entirely different. With Chrom creeping in I doubt she stands much of a chance for a third character and as the mystery character she still competes against others like Robin, and Anna. Micaiah would balance the roster nicely but I still prefer Anna the most.

Slime 2.12%
Anna $11.11%

x5 Barbara the Bat

 

[PK_Wonder]

Demoted Vet - 97% Any Brawl character who is no longer playable (save Snake) will be referenced by trophies, surely.
Want 100% - Down with Squirtle, Ivysaur, and Lucas! but keep them as collectible trophies.

Micaiah - 2.2%
A very longshot with a few competitors if there were to be four Fire Emblem characters (Chrom, Lucina, Ike, Roy, and My Unit/Robin are the only contenders for 2nd and 3rd, and one of them would most likely get 4th also... I find tomorrow's Anna to be more likely for a fourth though).
Want - 25%

predictions -
Slime 5%
Anna 6.5%

nom "X" protagonist x5
Will somebody who isn't using their nominations please help me?

 

[Deleted member]

Demoted Vet

Chance: 95% - I pretty much see Pokemon Trainer being referenced as a trophy & maybe a few others such as Ivysaur & Squirtle.

Want: 70%

Micaiah

Chance: Abstain

Want: 15% - Don't care.

Nomination

Peppy Hare x 5

 

[Morbi]

Demoted Veteran: 5%
I could see a cut veteran becoming an assist trophy, but there aren't going to be that many cuts, so I do not find that notion entirely likely.
Demoted Veteran Want: 100%
I would love to see R.O.B. as an assist trophy.

 

[Pacack]

I'm awfully surprised to see Micaiah rated so high by...certain people.

Here's a little hint. If everyone else is giving a character you want 1% and you're giving them 65%, you might be affected by bias. Trust me, I know. I overrated Daitoryo when he was rated. This is especially true when dealing with one of your most wanted characters.

Another piece of advice. Never give a darkhorse candidate more than a 50% chance. When there's an obvious front runner (or four), that character should be considered more likely to make it in even if you prefer them less.

With that said,

Micaiah:

Chance: 1.33%

- Competition in the form of Chrom, the Tactician (Robin), Anna, Lucina, and a couple others. (RIP Tiki)

- One of her competitors, the Tactician, has everything she does and more.

+ Magic and a sword.
+ A Female form which could be the default.
+ More in the form of representation than Micaiah, being a Tactician and Avatar as well as a female (kinda) and mage.
+ A high chance of appearing in later titles.
+ Recency, which has affected Super Smash Bros.'s Fire Emblem character selection twice before.​

- Awakening characters would be prioritized due to the game's major success, making Chrom, Robin, and Lucina (the protagonists of that game) more likely.

- Not the only main character in her game, and she's the Eliwood to Ike's Lyn.

- Ike is already in and we don't have precedence for two playable characters from one Fire Emblem game in Smash.

- It could be argued that her best chance was getting in Brawl over Ike.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

+ Mage user, something the Fire Emblem series is sorely lacking.

+ Female, something that the entire Super Smash Bros. roster is lacking.

+ Co-Protagonist.

+ Decently popular.

+ Not blue haired?

Overall, she has some merits, but those merits don't outweigh her negatives. The biggest blow to her chances is definitely Robin's having literally every merit she does and more.


Want: 55%

I'd be happy to have a Fire Emblem mage, but I'd feel robbed of the far superior choice that is Robin.



Demoted veteran: 35%

I could see Ivysaur or Squirtle as Pokeball Pokemon, Roy as an Assist Trophy, and Dr. Mario as an alternate costume.

Want: 75%

Better demoted than not included at all.


Nominations: Non-Ghostly Adventures Pac-Man x5 (Pac-Man getting in with his World/Party/AnythingnotnamedGhostlyAdventures design as default.)

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Michaih

20% Chance
100% Want

x5 DLC (in general, not just characters)

 

[YoshiandToad]

Demoted Veteran
Chance: 100%
Squirtle, Ivysaur or Pokemon Trainer...at least one is just going to be a trophy or a sticker(if those are returning). Frankly I'll be surprised if Roy, Doctor Mario or Pichu don't at the very least get a trophy. They deserve at least that, surely.

Want: 5%
Honestly I'd rather we had Roy, Doc, Pichu, Squirtle and Ivysaur as DLC characters(or costumes in Doc's case) than just a trophy or worse. Same for Mewtwo, should he not make the cut again, and Ike/Wolf/Lucas should any of them be cut out the initial roster.

Micaiah
Chance: 1%
Is a Nintendo character. Literally all she has going for her. Greninja and Rosalina are both new characters that appeared in the latest instalment of their series. Micaiah may have a different fighting style to the sword lords, but Robin's a far more likely white haired female mage at this point than she is.

Hell, she wasn't even that popular a character in her own game...a game that didn't sell very well in Japan to begin with. Unlike Roy who has veteran status going for him(as well as his game selling far better in Japan), Micaiah doesn't have any logical reason to be included at this stage into the game.

Want: 0%
For a past lord character, I'll pick Roy every time over her.
For a female mage character, I'll pick Awakening's Robin every time over her.
For likelihood she's been overtaken as most popular female lead by Lucina and Chrom's the most likely of all of these anyways.

Predicitions:
Anna: 6%
Slime: 4%

Nominations:
x5 NFC Smash Trophies

 

[Leafeon523]

Geez, the arguments over these chances. God, when Micaiah gets ranked tomorrow and people see the chance I'm giving her, I'm gonna get beaten with a stick and spat on.

Whelp, if you insist... The Light music Club ----> <----me
But in all seriousness, I feel like you did a good job establishing why you gave her such a high rating.
Demoted Veteran:
Abstain. I don't know how I feel about this.
Micaiah:
Chance: 5%. About how high I'll give for any Radiant Dawn character besides Ike.
Want: 70%
I'm cool with seeing her.
Predictions:
Slime: 9.67%
Anna(already?): $7.8
Noms:
NFC trophiesx3
Lanky Kongx1 Zip x1 (How many days have these guys been nominated alone for? It's about time they get some help)

 

[The Light Music Club]

I forgot to point this out earlier, but besides light magic, Micaiah can use Dark and Anima magic. She can also use staves, so it would be possible to have her use different weapons than Palutena. Could we say Chrom could use a different weapon?

Oh and @ YoshiandToad she's actually Silver-haired. The Silver-haired maiden to be exact.

 

[Groose]

Reading Groose's want ratings today leaves me with a thought: once the game actually releases or the full roster is otherwise confirmed, will this thread transition to some sort of satisfaction/roster review to conclude? Would be fun to look back and see if we agree with their choices once we have the full picture.

There are still too many unknowns for me to say for certain, but I definitely want to do this. I still plan on taking a hiatus a week before the games launch and unlocking the unannounced characters blind; since we don't know when the game will be launching, I can't formulate such a schedule.

Still praying for a launch by early to mid August. I need to do a midnight release before college starts up.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Micaiah Chance: 3.5% Not too likely with Chrom taking the obvious newcomer spot, especially when she will most likely not be considered, but if she does she'll probably be a sticker.

Micaiah Want: 15% Never played Radiant Dawn, so I have no real connection to Micaiah.

Demoted Veteran Chance: 95% Ivysaur and Squirtle right now are currently in the lead to being a Pokeball, trophy, or sticker, I see it as relatively likely.

Demoted Veteran Want: 100% There needs to be more demotion, I'm not going to pull names though, let's just say I no longer have sympathy for him.

Nominations:
x5 Nintendo Joker

 

[YoshiandToad]

Demoted Veteran Want: 100% There needs to be more demotion, I'm not going to pull names though, let's just say I no longer have sympathy for him.

Lucas, right?

Oh and @ YoshiandToad she's actually Silver-haired. The Silver-haired maiden to be exact.

Whoops my bad, then.

I'd still prefer Robin, but I'll acknowledge that was a mistake on my part.

 

[chronomantic]

-Demoted Veteran
Chance 100% - There will be cuts. The question is how many.
Want 100% - I personally want Lucas, R.O.B., Squirtle, Ivysaur, Wolf and Ike out. Not that this many characters will be demoted but let's see. I see them as future trophies not assists.

-Micaiah
Chance 50% (?) - don't know much about FE to make an informed opinion.
Want 100% - sure why not.

 

[Deleted member]

I think that we should label "Extensive Alternate Costumes" as confirmed now.

Villager was not a huge part of the discussion, however, but I feel he was semi-predictable; to be honest, I somewhat expected an Animal Crossing character despite Sakurai's comments; I know that I'm not the only one.

I also expected the Villager since Brawl. In fact, I was surprised by his exclusion from Brawl. He was an obvious character to put in and I'm surprised that it took this long to do so.

 

[Ryan.]

Demoted Veteran
Chance: 95%
I definitely see this happening in some form, like Squirtle and Ivysaur, if cut, getting trophies.
Want: 100%
Not saying I want veterans to get cut, but if they are, I would like them to still be included as trophies or whatever, not 100% out of the game completely.

Micaiah
Chance: 20%
Hmm, I don't know, I think her chances are low. I think Chrom and Ike have better chances TBH, and I can't see them adding 4 FE characters to the roster.
Want: 20%
Never played FE but it'd be nice to have a somewhat different FE character than what we've seen so far.

 

[Rockaphin]

Demoted Veteran:
Chance: 90%
Want: 50%
I don't want too many veterans cut but I'd like to see them at least recognized somehow. But at the same time they could potentially come back as DLC.

Micaiah:
Chance: 5%
Want: 10%
She'd be different but I have no interest.

Predictions:
Anna: 8.2%
Slime: 1.1%

Nominations:
Six Mario Reps x5

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Demoted Veteran: 95%
Pokémon Trainer trophy...

Want: 100%
Pokémon trainer is out, but I'd want him represented... that said I don't want cuts where it can be avoided, just that I want veterans to have trophies for us all to look at.


Micaiah: 0.5%
She's not even particularly popular, and I don't think Ike is going anywhere...

Want: 0%
I like Ike, and Radiant does not deserve two characters!



Anna: 3.8%
She's Nintendo

Slime: 6.2%
It's a weekend, so we'll get a lot of baseless 0s (not that I think it's necessarily bad to do that for third parties, just that I think DQ is WAY too big to justify it). Also, while there is a lot going on at Squeenix with various ESRBs, trademarks, statements and leaks about Dragon Quest I&II, VII, VIII, X and XI not all of these correlate to Nintendo, and these don't necessarily correlate to Smash Bros...

I think it's worth rating him again, but I do not expect a high increase... and in fact have dropped my own rating a little just recently. Those asking what's changed the big ones:

Dragon Quest VIII's trademark updated for mobile phone version in the US
Sony pull out of Square Enix
Next Dragon Quest (XI?) in development (additionally, it will be on a console, likely 3DS)
Dragon Quest X overseas expansion 'under consideration' (though consideration could mean deciding where to release not if)

Nothing concrete, but I don't think it's much of a stretch to see some big Dragon Quest news at E3... if it's a playable Slime is what I ask this thread.



Crono*5
I just want to see the disparity.

 

[NickerBocker]

Demoted Veteran
Chance: 95%
Want: abstain

Its pretty clear that if there are any cuts, a trophy will be put in mentioning that they were n a previous installment.

Micaiah
Chance: 2%
Want: 56%

Missed the chance in Brawl and Ike was chosen over her. Not really jnterested other than spellcasting.

Anna: 7.3%
Slime: 3.1%

Crono x5

 

[Mr_Anderson]

Demoted Veteran Chance: 99%
Demoted Veteran Want: 80%

I don't like the idea of having cuts, but it's pretty much guaranteed to happen, to at least Squirtle and Ivysaur. Although I don't like cuts, I like the idea of keeping cut characters in the game, which is why my want is so high. For example, I could see Squirtle and Ivysaur come out of Pokeballs, Mewtwo coming out of a Master Ball (if he isn't playable), Roy be an Assist Trophy, etc.

Micaiah Chance: 3%
Micaiah Want: 60%

Spellcasting would be a cool system for a Fire Emblem character so that we don't just have swordfighting reps, so Micaiah's probably my most wanted FE rep right behind Robin. However, I don't feel like she's too particularly likely, because she's not a posterchild of a game like Chrom, Ike, and Marth.

Predictions:
Anna 5.7%
Slime 4.2%

Nominations: Crono x5

 

[UnicornDemon]

Demotion
Chance- 95%
Want- 60%, kind of weird to rate because it depends who's demoted

Micaiah- abstain

Lanky Kong x5

 

[Burigu]

Micaiah she is an interesting characters for some reason.

I LOVE HER, but I have seen many people label her "Failcaiah" or being a Mary Sue, until joining this site I was of the impresion she wasn't liked. That show me that the perception of a character might be totally different from site ot site or that the context of a character might be different.

Glad to see she is liked (if not by a lot of people) enough to make the support visible let's start with the Priestess of Dawn!

Chance: 3%
I like Micaiah but it's a bit hard for her to make to the game before an awakening character

Want: 55%
Would be cool to have her, she can do some interesting things in Smash, but I wouldn't be in the floor crying if she isn't represented. But if she happens please give her the Dark Mage costume from Awakening, along with the others of RD of course

Demoted Veteran
Chance:50%
It has happened in the past no reason to not expecting it this time around (pretty sure Dr Mario will be an alt costume for Mario), the other ones might be or might not be represented

Want: 50%
If this is a case of represent cut characters in someway or another, it's fine by me, they would be cut regardless of represented or not

Anna: $20.2
Slime: 3.5%

 

[Erimir]

Demoted Veteran...

As long as trophies and stickers count, this is basically the chance that there are cuts. And at this point it's obvious that there will be at least one or two (if you count Pokemon Trainer as a pseudo-cut if Squirtle and Ivysaur somehow return).

Only Young Link didn't get anything in Brawl, and that's probably because Toon Link is basically the same character.

With trophies and stickers
Demoted Veteran chances: 99%

Demoted veteran want: 100%
I don't want cuts that much, but if they're going to happen I don't want them to be scrubbed from the game. Give all Smash veterans a trophy or two. They deserve higher quality ones too.

Only counting ATs, Pokeballs, stage hazards, and other things that can affect matches
Demoted veteran to AT/Pokeball/etc. chances: 5%
Demoted veteran to AT/Pokeball/etc. want: 5%
This seems like an insult and so I think it's unlikely. Taking Ike, Wolf, Squirtle, or Lucas and turning them into ATs or Pokeballs would be like an insult. Cameos and trophies are appropriate.

Micaiah

She seems less relevant now. But I spent too much time on this post already and don't feel like researching her again, so I'm just gonna throw numbers out there. She's not one of the elite FE characters any more, so her chances have to be in the single digits.

Micaiah chances: 3%
Micaiah want: 46%
Fire Emblem makes me not care much. But she's female and a mage, so she's more appealing to me than Chrom or whatever.

Predictions
Anna - 10%
Slime - 5%

Nominations
Bowser Land x5

Stick this in your post on the first page! It's quite an interesting model, that's for sure.

I'm going to get around to it... Soonish. Maybe this weekend?

I've been very busy with finishing up this MS degree... The semester just ended though so I have time to spend fiddling with numbers that don't matter at all. That and getting a job for the fall (I am technically still a student til August)

Gonna spoiler this discussion of the issue of female representation:

Spoiler

1) Being female isn't a reason to get added. I really don't care if a video game character is male or female unless if it's a part of their character. What I'm trying to get at is this--I don't really understand why someone looks at a character and goes, "they're female. I want them in because of that." I don't look at characters and go, "they're male. I relate to them now, and I want them in Smash." I am a male, but I that doesn't stop me from playing as the likes of Zelda or Samus in Smash. I really don't understand this whole mindset.

In reference to the underlined portion, I think it's hard to understand that when you're part of the ubiquitous majority.

I could see how I might feel that way about male vs. female, or white vs. black characters, etc. if I wasn't part of a minority myself. I don't see white or male characters and say "I relate to them now". White males don't think that way because white males are everywhere in almost every game/movie/TV show/etc. You don't need to identify with all of them, you have a buffet of options to pick from, so why identify with any but the ones that are similar to you in personality/family background/etc.?

I imagine most white people would say the same thing about not identifying with characters because they're white. But there's also the notion you hear a lot when talking about movies... "White audiences won't identify with a black protagonist" which is why Will Smith, Denzel Washington, Halle Berry and a couple other "proven" black actors are basically the only black actors you ever see headlining a blockbuster picture that's not a "black movie" (i.e. marketed primarily to black audiences).

And you'd definitely see the same justifications being given for why there aren't many movies or video games with gay leads. Straight people don't want to watch gay people fall in love, or be action heroes, rescue their same-sex boyfriend/girlfriend from the bad guy, etc. etc. And I definitely see straight people saying the same thing about how they don't identify with characters for being straight. I even saw that with people talking about the Tomodachi Life controversy, and in that game your character is supposed to represent yourself! But if that's actually true, I find it awfully confusing why more of them don't watch movies with gay lead characters. It seems to me that they think that not identifying with non-straight characters because they're not straight is somehow different from identifying with straight characters because they're straight.

I would love it if Nintendo made a (non-caricatured) gay character and that character eventually got into Smash. I don't think it means I'm making my life all about that. I think if I were straight though, I would have a hard time understanding that because I know how easy it is to take white and male representation for granted.

When a TV show, or a movie studio, or a gaming company, makes a minority the lead or an important character, who is not just a token and not a stereotype, it says that people are interested in telling and hearing your story. It says that you can be the romantic lead, or the role model, etc. etc. And it's not that seeing a white/male/straight character says the opposite. It's when you only ever see the white/male/straight characters (or very disproportionately see them) that you get a different message. It's fine for you to listen to their stories, but they don't wanna hear yours. Their stories matter, yours don't. They don't generally think you can be the same things that the majority group can be.

And that's why I give more support to any female or racial minority character, assuming that character meets the standard of worthiness. Because I think that female gamers and black gamers and whoever else deserve the chance to see themselves (that aspect of themselves) included in the game.

Unfortunately, Nintendo barely has any non-white, non-Asian characters, and I don't think any of them are important enough to deserve being in Smash so that hasn't come up. I think that's an issue they need to work on.

Sorry to get all serious and talk about social issues.

(And, on a personal level, it would just be insulting because it would feel like that brand of idea that you KNOW would come from someone with the justification of "hey, let's include girls by including make up and dressing and fashion, because that's what girls are all about!" Much in the same way we're stuck with not just Metal Peach, but PINK GOLD PEACH, because pink you guys. And to clarify, I'm not saying there's something wrong with pink or girly fashion make up girls and all of that. It's perfectly fine, but as a female gamer I detest that games for girls keep on being reduced to this. Because for girls it's not about saving the world or adventuring, it's about ****ing fashion)

Huh. I didn't know you were female.

Glad to see I'm not alone on this. Nintendo needs more female reps but they're not so desperate for them that they have to resort to vapid stereotypes instead of more famous and interesting characters. And I totally agree about that Pink Gold thing... What would have been wrong with Golden Peach or plain Metal?

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Demoted Veteran - 85%

Crud, wasn't keeping up with noms and must have missed a post at some point. I thought we'd be rating the chance of a veteran's stats getting nerfed considerably or something like that. So much for my prediction..

Anyway, I won't be very surprised if we see a cut character or two as a Trophy, but I highly doubt we'll see any former veteran become an Assist Trophy.

Want - 2%

No cuts. Plain and simple. Only reason it's not a zero is because I still want any cut characters to be acknowledged, and not as an Assist Trophy or Pokeball. I'd rather have them playable, or just show up as a trophy than have them as one of the invulnerable enemies whose purpose is to help one player defeat his/her opponents.

Micaiah - Abstain

I know enough about her to say she is extremely unlikely.

Anna Prediction - 11.24%

Slime Prediction - 5.46%

Plusle/Minun x5

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Demoted/cut veterans

Chance 99%

Oh no doubt pokemon trainer is the first one, hes probably going to be just a trophy obviously. And squirtle as well because of , and ivysaur due to not even close to compairing to bulbasaur/venusaur, plus i really doubt ivy can top mewtwo, & jigglypuff.

Want. Abstain

Well in my opinion Are probably going to be the ones in the catergory, but im not overjuding, especially They both can get in, despite the skepticals on them.



Abstain for micaiah on both catergorys.