I've been laughing at this picture for like 10 minutes.
There's so much hidden everywhere. And dem Rosalips.
But it would have been better if Little Mac or Wii Fit Trainer were there pointing to themselves.
I always try to find some good pictures for the OP; I've been taking more pride in that recently. Glad you liked my find on this one!
Oh, I see what they mean by vet downgrade.
I'm thinking 45%.
Dr. Mario alt anyone?
Brawl Veterans, I believe.
I made a model that predicts the number of slots a franchise gets based on its lifetime sales (on a logarithmic scale) and the number of slots the franchise had in the previous iteration. The correlation is about 77%.
The amount of variation you see is, however, shows that those aren't the only factors. It also tends to underestimate the larger series... Probably because of that time when Mario dropped from 5 reps to 4 (that's the one at the top where it predicted 6 slots). . It's clear that decisions are not based purely on the characters, but some consideration is given to sales, which implies slots for franchises. So I think it's useful to think in terms of slots... given that you keep in mind that there's quite a bit of wiggle room,
especially for the larger series (and the fact that slots tend to increase). So more accurately, it's probably better to think of a range which is determined mostly by series popularity and previous representation. But can be broken for various reasons (Earthbound is an example of a series getting a disproportionate number of reps).
But thinking that Mewtwo has 0% chance because Pokemon's slots are all taken already is silly.
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Stick this in your post on the first page! It's quite an interesting model, that's for sure.
I'll rate tomorrow. Tired today. If I rate now, I'll forget important stuff...
A wise decision. Be warned, though--I updated on pretty consistent 24-hour frames, so don't wait to long (I see you've made your post, but just for future reference).
NOOO.... I missed yesterday's rate. My perfect attendance is gone.
I lost my perfect attendance back on Day 4. Don't feel too bad.
Yeah, I guess That was pretty rude of me, sorry.
Thanks for the apology. Sorry for the entire crackdown today; we're not usually so strict, but the leak is a very volatile topic, and we're just trying not to lose control of the thread.
As Pacack mentioned, I am looking over this day for Groose when he isn't able to. Groose will eventually come in and end the day, but I don't want things to get too chaotic. If you looked at Mewtwo's day yesterday, things got pretty bad. So, I am looking over for Groose and I am making sure that everything is going as planned as smoothly with as little debates as possible.
Admittedly, I am the one to blame for nominating a controversial topic...
Speaking of which, I am going to change my nominations.
You're doing an amazing job! I don't really have time other than on evenings (and very briefly when I first wake up) to visit; I'm more or less just here to move the day from one point to another. Brawler610 has my complete trust, as do the others that have posts on the first page of this thread.
Does the Veteran Downgrade mean a chance of a nerfed Veteran or the chancee a Veteran will be demoted from playable to something else.
Demoted. I'll actually be referring to it as "Demoted Veteran" from here on out to avoid the (justifiable) conclusion.
Gematsu Leak: 60%
Note: This does not factor in minor errors. If we get Marshal instead of Chorus Men and all of the other things in the leak turn out to be true, I would consider the leak valid. I do think there is a good chance that if the leak is real, we will get Marshal instead of Chorus Men [or at the very least, they'll be renamed Choir Boys or whatever they are actually called in the English version].
When evaluating the Gematsu Leak, I find it important to not get too concerned with the individual contents and focus more on the circumstances surrounding the leak and the contents of the leak as a whole. For example, the fact that I estimated Marshal at just 5% before the leak incorporated him is pretty irrelevant to whether the leak is real or not. Characters I have viewed as unlikely or haven't even considered have made the cut in the past, and it is entirely possible one or two are still left in the wings.
First, I'd like to discuss the contents of the leak as a whole. It offers up a half-dozen newcomers in addition to the half-dozen we already have; this is definitely plausible. I expect roughly a dozen newcomers (give or take a few) this time based on Sakurai's comments and the way characters have been rolled out thus far; the fact that the leak slots pretty nicely into my expectations definitely doesn't mean it is real, but it does allow it to be in the window of possibility. There was another leak not too long ago that I dismissed as soon as I read it; it announced that there would be nineteen newcomers; I think that amount is ludicrous. The Gematsu leak is plausible from a numerical standpoint.
Additionally, I look at the characters it adds as a whole and it seems plausible. There is one character I didn't really expect, but the majority are characters that I think would have excellent chances. If these six characters were to get in, the roster would look pretty balanced--I'd have given it a pretty solid score on a prediction roster if I had to rate it back in March.
Now, onto the leak's faults. I'm going to come out and say it: it doesn't really have any. You could pull the whole "not every character was revealed at E3," but I'm against this reasoning for two main reasons. First of all, I don't know for certain who made that prediction; was it Sal or his tipster who said they'd all be out at E3? That's never been clarified to me... but I guess it doesn't really matter. It's entirely possible that the leaker saw something other than the E3 presentation and that they saw more characters than were revealed; it's not like they claimed to have seen that reveal ahead of time. I take a very similar stance to the whole "they didn't predict Rosalina" debate.
The thing I find most sketchy with the leak is the whole "Pokemon from X and Y" bit. It sounds like something out of a fake leak, but then again it could just mean that their source isn't the most detailed or descriptive. That makes it clear that
the leaker's information isn't total and infallible even if their information is legitimate; this is important, and I will elaborate on this point later.
Now I must take into account what the leak got right. It got Little Mac, but that's very insignificant; EVERYONE on this thread said Little Mac had at least a 50% chance; he's the only character besides post-Direct Palutena to accomplice that. He was highly predictable; leaking him doesn't validate the tipster in the slightest. I don't think Mega Man does at all, either; you can throw me the whole "Mega Man wasn't expected, just wanted" thing, but the fact of the matter is he was a really, really big part of the discussion before the Direct. Villager was not a huge part of the discussion, however, but I feel he was semi-predictable; to be honest, I somewhat expected an Animal Crossing character despite Sakurai's comments; I know that I'm not the only one. I also suspected that there would be some sort of Pokemon shakeup [I have several old quotes proving this belief of mine], but I couldn't put my finger on it; the fact that the leaker was vague here means it can't really go too far in validating him.
That leads us to what really helps them out: the Wii Fit Trainer. There were probably only a half-dozen people who ever thought of this, and the documentation of it suggests less than that. I think she turned up on one or two old GameFAQs threads a while before the Direct and Pizzadudemanguy has a video in which he and his friends joke about her; that's it. It is possible that someone made her up for the sake of the leak and got a lucky guess (just look at some of the leaks people have tried--Tin Star, anyone?), but when factoring in that the leaker did nail a handful of other characters and hasn't reported anything wrong yet, I'd say the leak has a 66% chance.
...but I'm not done yet. Remember what I said earlier? When I was talking about them saying "a Pokemon form X and Y?" I believe this quote is proof that they don't know everything. Who is to say that the rest of their information is entirely accurate? They clearly haven't seen the game, and there is always a chance they have something confused because of this. I think this possibility knocks a few percentage off.
Overall, I slightly expect the leak to be real, but I would't be overly surprised if it were not. Now, onto want...
Gematsu Leak Want: 50%
What I have to look at here is NOT whether or not I would be satisfied with the overall character roster--it is only whether I would want the six characters in the leak in as playable. Those two are very different things. I'm thrilled with Mega Man, Villager, and Little Mac (and look forward to trying Greninja and Rosalina), so unless the rest of the characters are all those that I absolutely hate, I will be satisfied with the roster. However, that doesn't matter--all that I have to focus on is the group of Chrom, Shulk, Pac-Man, Mii, Palutena and "Chorus Men." Please note: I feel that if all of the members of this group get in, there is very little to no room for other newcomers; I'm treating them as if they eliminate or at the very least severely impair the chances of K. Rool, Ridley, and that gang.
Of these six, I would be heavily hyped by three--Palutena, Pac-Man and Shulk. Although I give Palutena a lot of flack and have Hades in my signature, she is still one of the newcomers that I am most hyped for. I'd be undeniably happy if her trailer starts to roll, and I really can't wait to see the community reaction for that one (remember how great it was for Mega Man and Little Mac?). I'm also a really big Pac-Man supporter; he's currently near the bottom of my top-ten, but I would definitely love him if he got in. Finally, Shulk is the character I want the most out of these three; my personal "Elite Four" is Shulk, Layton, Ridley, and Rool--if Shulk makes it in, it would definitely appease me for the lack of Rool.
The other half of the leak--Miis, Chrom, and "Chorus Men"--is something I have at best mixed thoughts about. Chrom is a character I've always bashed on, but I must admit that he and his fan base deserve it; I would kind of sigh over his inclusion and try to like him. "Chorus Men" are something I'm cautiously optimistic about; I think they'll be very interesting, and I'd probably try to use them. The real reason why I'm not ready to embrace them is that I have no idea how they'll actually play. If they have something overly gimmicky, I may be pushed away from them. Finally, we have Miis--I love Miis in general, but I'd prefer they stay out of Smash. I've been over this before--I'd prefer not to play as myself; I'd prefer to play as some cool video game character.
I am in favor of three, and I am undecided or against the other three. My thoughts on the leak, then, are mixed--it has a few of my favorite characters, but it has a few characters that I'm not really into. I look at it this way--someone walks up to me and says, "Hey, Groose. The six characters in the leak are actually getting in the game, but if you give the word, I'll wipe them out and start on six fresh ones--but you won't know who. What do you say?" In this case, I would be highly indecisive--I do like the cast that this introduces, but I can think of another realistic half-dozen group of characters that I like more--and also one I like less.
The leak to me is a compromise--it's not an ideal way to round out the roster, but it's certainly not a bad one.
Savvy Stylist: 0.01%
Blue is right in this instance, methinks--Savvy Stylist is not impossible. That said, I think she is very, very unlikely. It really comes down to demographics. The target audience of Style Savvy has barely any overlap at all with the Smash Bros. audience. You can pull the Wii Fit Trainer out here, but it won't work; Wii Fit was catered towards entire families and sold tens of millions of copies while Style Savvy was catered to younger girls and sold just a few million copies. All of my friends who play Smash have tried Wii Fit (and all but one of them own it and the Balance Board), but not a single one has tried or even heard of Style Savvy. Additionally, the Wii Fit Trainer was selected partly as a bit of a joke on the fanbase; the Savvy Stylist would be more akin to an act of aggression than a joke.
This just doesn't seem like any pick Sakurai has ever made to me before. If he does make it, one of his main motives is to surprise; in that case, there should be no way we should anticipate this character.
Savvy Stylist Want: 0%
This character sets off pretty much all of my pet peeves. In no particular order:
1) Being female isn't a reason to get added. I really don't care if a video game character is male or female unless if it's a part of their character. What I'm trying to get at is this--I don't really understand why someone looks at a character and goes, "they're female. I want them in because of that." I don't look at characters and go, "they're male. I relate to them now, and I want them in Smash." I am a male, but I that doesn't stop me from playing as the likes of Zelda or Samus in Smash. I really don't understand this whole mindset.
2) A character shouldn't have to be gimmicky to get in. There's an easy way for me to explain this one--I love how Little Mac looks, but it isn't because of his gimmicky K.O. Punch. I like the looks of him because I like how he's a fast, small character with a distinctive playstyle. If you present me with the Ice Climbers on one hand and Mr. Game and Watch on the other, I will take Game and Watch every time; he may not have the gimmick of having two characters fighting at once, but he stands out as a distinctive character and references his game in a lot of cool games. I just prefer something straightforward and interesting than something gimmicky and very interesting, as the Savvy Stylist is projected to be.
There are more, but I'm running out of time. I'll just briefly mention them: vanity of modern culture, ignoring popular characters for those no one really wanted, and my personal dislike for the games (yes, I have come into contact with the DS one before). Nothing that I have seen suggested anywhere so far would appeal to me less than Style Savvy.
Mr. Resetti x5
DAY OVER
...may take a while longer to start the next because I haven't tallied noms yet...
