Rate Their Chances: GAME OVER! Join the RTC Social Group Today!

[Rockaphin]

Marshall:
Chance: 4%
Want: 10%
If Rhythm Heaven gets a character, I'd want it to be Marshall. But I don't care enough to actually want anyone.

Chibi Robo:
Chance: 20%
Want: 65%
Sort of interested, but not enough to really want him.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Hoenn remakes have been confirmed the day after we rated Sceptile.

Literally after I said I was doubting the Hoenn remakes ever coming this happens.

The secret to great comedy, as they say, is timing.

Marshall
Chance: 10%
Seems to be the host of the latest game...maybe this is something they'll want to continue? Hard to say at the moment, but he's definitely mascot material.

Want: 70%
Was on my Pre-E4 Bingo Card so I'm a passive supporter. Out of all the Rhythm Heaven options he's probably my favourite followed by the Chorus Kids. I like Wrestler, but...he is just a fairly generic looking wrestler.

Chibi Robo
Chance: 8%
Saki, Dillon, Wonder Red...is Chibi Robo going to do much better than either of these two whilst more popular niche game stars like Isaac and Shulk have unknown fates? Prepare for AT however.

Want: 75%
Which is a shame, because I like Chibi Robo. He has a great design and it's popular enough to warrant SOMETHING in Smash...I just don't think it'll be a playable slot.

Predictions:
Warioland Wario: 10%
A lot of characters are getting changed! Actually no; the Marioverse crew are getting tweaked rather than drastic changes. Standing upright is not a drastic change to a playstyle.
Yoshi has the same moveset, Diddy seems to have the same moveset, DK seems to have the same moveset...is it very likely the fourth Mario Spinoff Series character will get heavily changed enough to make him work completely different to his Brawl counterpart?

KIU Taunt codec things: 35%
Seems inevitable. Sakurai bias seems stronger this time round.

Nominations:
Copying Koopaul;
Barbara the Bat x5

 

[Burigu]

Marshal
Chance: 2%
Want 0% I don't want anything about the franchise he wasn't even "leaked" so nothing here

Chibi Robo
Chance: 25%
Want 10% totally indiferent toward the little robot yet Sakurai might consider him, I am not to sure

KIU SMASH taunt
30%

Nominations Medusa x 5

 

[Scarylemon]

Marshal
Chance:6%
Want:20% (Marshal looks kinda cool)

Chibi Robo
Chance: 15%
Want: 10%

 

[Xenigma]

The timing on that Ruby/Sapphire announcement is hilarious. IMO I do think its worthy of a Sceptile rerate, but only if it's in the context of a special day where we rerate all three of the Gen III starters we've considered (Blaziken, Grovyle, Sceptile) so they can all be rated properly. Maybe something to consider later in the week?

Marshal - 1%
Much like I gave Chorus Men a 1%, I'm giving Marshal the same as he also seems an extreme outlier in chance, if not quite impossible. Maybe if he were named in the leak I'd be more forgiving (he does seem somewhat more plausible than a trio), but as it stands he's a notable RH character with no significant Smash potential, barring some sort of summoning moveset where he just pulls in other RH elements to fight for him, and I'm not about to give significant chance based on dream movesets. I would be shocked if he actually appeared.
Want - 0% - No thank you.

Chibi-Robo - 5%
He's plausible, but seeing how ATs and newcomers have gone thus far, I don't think he's popular or notable enough to sneak into the roster at this time knowing how the likes of Saki, Dillon, and Wonder Red have been left on the sidelines.
Want - 0% - No thank you.

 

[Groose]

I've been skeptical about Hoenn remakes for five years, and I'm even more skeptical they'll impact Smash.

We'll discuss this later in the evening, OK? As of right now, focus on Marshal and Chibi Robo.

 

[Nimbostratus]

Marshal
Chance- 5%
Another shot in the dark. I really don't know.
Want- 12%
Well, at least he has a name, unless Chorus Men.

Chibi Robo
Chance- 15%
Not impossible, and has the benefit of not being disconfirmed. The series, while small, isn't dead.
Want- 50%
Incredibly indifferent. Interesting design and moveset, but I'm not necessarily excited to see him. I wouldn't be as upset by his inclusion as some others.

 

[Pacack]

Marshal:

Chance: Abstain
I have no idea. The Chorus Kids honestly seem more likely at this point. I mean, looking up just "rhythm heaven" brings up stuff like this:

So they're not the most out there choice in the world and, in hindsight, should have been predicted (any other character that appears on the front of the box is normally considered by someone).

Want: 65%
I like him, and would prefer him over the Chorus Kids, but I'd much rather see the Rhythm Girl.

Chibi Robo:

Chance: 20%
1/5 chance of seeing him. He's very possible...he just has a ton of competition that arguably has more merits than he does.

Want: 80%
I love him so much. I've only played the demo of his game from the EShop, but I'd love to see him playable.


Predictions:

Wario Land Wario: 9.87%
Kid Icarus Codecs (Does it have to be initiated by taunts to count?): 43.21%

Nominations: Sheriff x5

 

[Maxilian]

Marshal
Chance: 65%
Why? cause i believe the leak, so i'm going to believe that he's also going to be in (yeah the leak says Chorus Men, but IMO is most likely talking about him.

Want: 25%
I don't really care but i like the idea of a music based character :D

Chibi Robo
Chance: 40%
Well... he have a new game come out for 3DS and he's already a popular character so... that give him a bigger chance, but i still think the leak is real so i'm going to give Marshal the upper hand.

Want: 10%
Well now that i investigated a little thanks to Pacack, i like him a little more and he's not a bad idea but still there are other character that i prefer over him >.>

 

[Pacack]

Marshal
Chance: 65%
Why? cause i believe the leak, so i'm going to believe that he's also going to be in (yeah the leak says Chorus Men, but IMO is most likely talking about him.

Want: 25%
I don't really care but i like the idea of a music based character :D

Chibi Robo
Chance: 5%
I don't think so, his last game was in 2007 and it wasn't that popular (The DS game) and he's not old enough to be a classic game either so no...

Want: 0%
I don't want him at all, i won't be angry if he ends up in the game but there are way too many options that could be better than him >.>

 

[Maxilian]

oohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

 

[FinalSynthesis]

Marshall
Chance: 9%
Nothing to say that you guys haven't already. Rhythm Heaven character certainly seems to be a possibility, and Marshall and Chorus Men seem to be the main options. Chorus men seem more likely though.

Want: 40%
I haven't done too much research on him, but I do want a rhythm based character, and Marshall seems as good as any.

Chibi-Robo
Chance: 12%
Clearly an original character, although the casual brawler may assume he is similar to ROB, as they are both robots. His series is significant enough to warrant the possibility of a character, and clearly is the only character that would be considered. Being the face of his respective franchise helps as well. That said, there is no reason to believe he has more than a minute chance of getting in.

Want: 35%
I haven't played any of his games, but he does seem like quite an interesting character. There are still several characters I would much rather see get in over him, both in terms of deservedness and personal preference, which is why I can't rate him very high.

 

[FinalSynthesis]

I think we need to re-rate Sceptile again and prepare ourselves for the biggest chance increase that we've had yet.

I completely agree with this; is there any chance we could take a day out and rerate not just Sceptile but Blaziken and Swampert as well?

 

[Pacack]

oohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Might want to reconsider your rating just a bit. Not being from a dormant series changes things.

 

[Maxilian]

Might want to reconsider your rating just a bit. Not being from a dormant series changes things.

Yeah, thanks... i edited it

 

[Sid-cada]

Marshall

Chance - 6% - This is about how much I put into the "leak." Just a single percent higher. I just have a feeling we would be seeing a character more recurring than him.

Want - 50.75% - Okay-ish I guess. Not bad by any means, but I prefer other charters in Rhythm Heaven to him.


Chibi-Robo

Chance - 10% - While I don't think anything in particular has happened to make me think he is less likely, I have grown a bit more pessimistic about his chances. The number of equally notable franchises that have gotten skipped over in the playable department has made me pessimistic.

Want - 60% - He's cute, could offer some interesting things, and overall just feels like a good fit. Not something I'm rooting for, however.


Predictions

Wario-Land Wario - 35.63% - Maybe? I have no clue how much people think about this.

KI Smash Taunts - 27.45% - People haven't thought about the chances of this happening, it seems.


Nominations
Halcandra Stage X5

 

[mini paincakes]

Marshall

Chance: 10%- I don't trust the leak, but he still seems like a character that Sakurai would consider.

Want: 15%- He seems like a fine character, but I really don't care that much.

Chibi Robo

Chance 40%- He's a recognizable character with good moveset potential, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the game. I'm not too positive that he'll be in since he's not very highly requested and he might not he on the top of Sakurai's priorities with all the other Nintendo franchises that don't have representation yet.

Want: 80%- I've never played his games, but I love his design and the concept behind him. He'd be a great fit for smash bros.

 

[The Light Music Club]

According to the OP I won on Palutena's day? What does that mean exactly. I read the FAQ but for the life of me couldn't figure it out.

Rates:

Marshall:
Chance: 15 % - I'm convinced that Agent J will be the only music character considered.
Want: 25% - Meh

Chibi Robo:
Chance : 45% - He's a character that makes total sense for smash
Want : 30% - Haven't played his games, and don't care.

Predictions
Wario - 35%
KIU Taunts - 70%

Nominations: Micaiah x10 (via extra nominations)

 

[Deleted member]

According to the OP I won on Palutena's day? What does that mean exactly. I read the FAQ but for the life of me couldn't figure it out.

You won extra nominations!
In this case, you won 5! So, you can give 10 nominations to Micaiah!

 

[The Light Music Club]

You won extra nominations!
In this case, you won 5! So, you can give 10 nominations to Micaiah!

Ok cool! And how exactly did I win them?

 

[Deleted member]

Ok cool! And how exactly did I win them?

You got them by giving the closest prediction to how Palutena would score on the next day.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Marshal - 6.25%
first I don't take leaks as chances,
second he does seem to be a much more prominent character in the rhythm haven, if its going to get a character he's definitely one to consider, though the big thing there is if and we don't know which new franchises are going to get newcomers
want - 60%
I would like an character from rhythm haven, though I have others from the series I would prefer more
chibi robo - 8%
in the running, though even with a new game he seems great assist trophy material, I think its going to fall onto that instead
want - 50%
i'm indifferent
wario land wario (in other words an wario rehaul of some sort) - 42.65%
I've got no idea, many think that a character that takes a while to get shown gets changed, though it could also be argued that there was just no prime time to show him, I have no idea where this one will land at.
Kid icaurs smash taunts - 72.40%
I've got a feeling that a lot of people will be rating high on this one.
nominations:
Pirate ship (legend of Zelda)X5

 

[Mr_Anderson]

Marshal Chance: 25%
Marshal Want: 10%

I think that the leak has a chance of being credible, but I'm not entirely sure on it. There's a chance, but I prefer to remain on the skeptical side and say it's not real. However, I don't really like the idea of Marshal in Smash Bros. I'm just not really super interested in him, I think his design is kinda bland personally. He would bring and interesting rhythm-based moveset, and he would fit in rather nicely, but I just don't particularly like him.

Chibi-Robo Chance: 30%
Chibi-Robo Want: 65%

Chibi-Robo would be a pretty cool addition to Smash, I think. He visually fits well into the theming, and his moveset would be rather diverse and interesting. Chibi-Robo was a pretty nifty game, and there was just a new game released onto the 3DS, so that gains him some well-needed exposure. I think that Chibi-Robo has a decent chance, but I feel as though he's not going to make the cut to be playable.

Predictions:
Wario Land Wario: 24.6%
I have no clue
Kid Icarus Taunts: 63.4%
People like this idea all of a sudden

Nominations: Crono x5

 

[MargnetMan23]

Right now I'm pissed off with myself for forgetting to check this thread out on Sceptile's day... Oh well, remake, muh relevancy, inevitable rerate. But I guess I'll have to opt out of today... so whatever.

 

[FinalSynthesis]

Oops
Predictions:
Wario Land Wario: 36%
Kid Icarus Taunts: 52%
I had to look up what you guys were yammering on about with your "KI Codecs", but now that I figured it out, it sounds like fun and has a pretty good chance I presume.

Also, how does this nomination system work? I understand that people gain nominations by predicting the closest, but what are these nominations for? And does everyone start with nominations or do the first ones need to be earned as well?

 

[Toxicroaker]

Oops
Predictions:
Wario Land Wario: 36%
Kid Icarus Taunts: 52%
I had to look up what you guys were yammering on about with your "KI Codecs", but now that I figured it out, it sounds like fun and has a pretty good chance I presume.

Also, how does this nomination system work? I understand that people gain nominations by predicting the closest, but what are these nominations for? And does everyone start with nominations or do the first ones need to be earned as well?

You may be wondering--how does what we're rating get decided? Well, you also have the chance to nominate characters to rate. You get five nominations per day; use them to nominate characters as you see fit. We rate whatever has the most nominations in each category at the end of the day the following day. The nominations count can be found in the second post of this thread.

Finally, at the beginning of every day I announce what characters we will rate the following day. You have the option to predict what theaverage chance score will be for these characters. After we rate these characters the following day, @@Smasher 101 will announce what people guessed the closest to the actual score. These people will win five extra nominations.

This is how nominations and predictions work.

 

[TeenGirlSquad]

Chibi-Robo

Chance: 10%
Want: 100%

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Well because omega ruby and alpha sapphire is confirmed for the 3ds

Man i wish i can change my vote for sceptile

 

[Glaciacott]

Not that I don't like Chibi Robo, but 40-65%? Dang guys, I feel like a lot of you are either overrating the heck out of the tiny thing or you're not really thinking about just how likely 40% is.

 

[FinalSynthesis]

This is how nominations and predictions work.

Okay. That makes sense. Thanks

 

[FinalSynthesis]

Man i wish i can change my vote for sceptile

-Every person in this thread

 

[Groose]

Since I have not played KIU yet, is it possible that we could have all discussion about tomorrow's KIU taunts in spoiler tabs tomorrow? I really don't want any more of the game spoiled to me before I get to play it...

Hmmm.... well, this is a bit of a dilemma. See, I definitely don't want you to be spoiled or be unable to rate anything that day, but in this thread we have a tendency to... give Kid Icarus the "full treatment." I don't think we'll be able to keep everything in spoiler tags because of that. I would advise that you PM your scores to me for that day, and I'll work them in; you don't have to come in and spoil yourself, but you'll still be able to participate. Sound like a deal?

Right now I'm pissed off with myself for forgetting to check this thread out on Sceptile's day... Oh well, remake, muh relevancy, inevitable rerate. But I guess I'll have to opt out of today... so whatever.

Inevitable rerate... sooner than you might think.

-Every person in this thread

...hmmm....
Marshal: 25% chance
I'd give the Gematsu leak a 50%; I could see it go either way. However, I am not nearly so confident that we'll se the Chrous Kids; I think that there's a really, really solid chance that the leaker had them confused with Marshal. I'll be giving Marshal a 25% as a result.

Marshal Want: 50%
Completely neutral. There are definitely other series I'd like to see get their characters in before Rhythm Heaven, but I certainly wouldn't be opposed. I'll be OK if he's in, but I won't cry if he's out.

Chibi Robo: 33% chance
He has a moderately popular franchise (that does stand above the likes of Sin and Punishment/Custom Robo). He's also a pretty unique character in looks and in concept; I could definitely see him getting chosen as an Olimar-esque quirky challenger. With a bunch of characters I foresaw competing with him in the mid-ranges disappearing (Saki, Dillon, Wonder Red, Samurai Goroh), his chances certainly can't be harmed.

Chibi Robo Want: 75%
Not a huge fan of the franchise or anything, but he is a pretty cool looking character, and a plug-based moveset certainly intrigues me. I'd definitely take him as a playable character, though I would have some misgivings.

Professor Layton x5
Something tells me that I won't need to nominate Sceptile...

DAY OVER

HOME SWEET HOENN!​

 

[Groose]

Marshal
16.78% chance
33.07% want
Ah, the Gematsu leak. I can't wait for E3 primarily to see how the whole charade will play out. Overall, the people who play this game aren't entirely sold on it and don't really want it, but there are definitely people on both sides. I guess the winning side will get to STRIKE A POSE! Sorry, only Rhythm Heaven joke I could think of. I'm out of them already.

Chibi Robo
25.29% chance (was 19.71%)
57.29% want (was 44.47%)
His chances aren't as tiny as his body, and his want certainly is not anywhere near that small; he'll take the tenth slot in our most wanted newcomers list. Not too shabby for such a little robot, huh?

Today we'll be rating Kid Icarus Sma---. Oh? Yes? I see. Got it. Yes, that will work. Yeah, don't worry, I can stall. No, they won't expect a thing. People were actually asking for it! Mhmmm. Right. Cya.

So, where was I? We will actually not be rating the things we were supposed to today. Why? HOENN CONFIRMED! Just yesterday we rated Sceptile, and we all gave him pretty low ratings. Some of us (like that idiotic dude with the pompadour) actually argued that Hoenn games probably wouldn't happen anytime soon; with this new information, I feel an immediate rerate is absolutely essential. Today we'll be rating Sceptile and Blaziken in chance and want. No Swampert because it's freaking Swampert, and I feel sorry for him. I can't watch all of the zeroes. You can still predict "Kid Icarus Smash Taunts" and "Wario Land Wario" (which, I repeat, means an overhauled version of Wario, not a costume change); they'll be rated tomorrow as planned. With that said, cya: I'll be in Fortree City if anyone needs me.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

I will begin

Sceptile

Chance 20%

At first it looked hopeless because of no hoenn remakes in sight but as of today that has ben confirmed and hes 40% because now that sceptile can present because this pokemon can replace ivysaur its not above 50% because of mewtwo and jigglypuff but hes 70% if theres going to be 7 pokemon playable

Want 95%

No difference from thr first time it would be awsome for a lizard rep (king k rool is a alligator rep that we want)

Blaziken

Chance 3%

This character wants a word with this guy
http://www.smashbros.com/us/characters/lizardon.html
In other words charizard is a fire starter rep so is blaziken so 2 fire starters is overkill

Want 40%

It would be cool


EDIT downgraded to 20% because i just realized i was optimistic


(Oh by the way for both canidates yes sakurai could have known about omega ruby and alpha sapphire before he finished the playable character roster)

 

[PK_Wonder]

BOTH - 5% each. This boosts the chances of a third gen rep - barely. We don't certainly need or have a grass starter status quo. and they aren't just competing against Mewtwo and Jiggs - they are competing against everyone else too. Unlike Greninja, they also lack common Smash requests.

nominate:
Crono x5 (I wanna see what the want score will be and would love to read some Chrono Trigger nostalgia.)
@ Groose (my 5 noms for Flynn seem not to have been counted, my friend. He should be at 34.)

 

[Toxicroaker]

Sceptile: 5%
Want: 50%

Blaziken: 2%
Want: 0%

I predicted yesterday.

x5 Zip

 

[Morbi]

Sceptile Chance: 0.5%
Sceptile Want: 10%

That arbitrary fan pattern is irrelevant.

 

[Plain Yogurt]

Sceptile:
Chance: 15% While I do think this boosts a 3rd gen rep's chances, as it's unknown how long this has been in development, I'm not gonna go overboard with the hype. This is still quite unlikely to happen in my opinion.

Want: 65% I'm all for diverse Pokemon gen representation and it feels wrong to only have 2/3 of the starter triangle. That said, I'm not gonna bellyache if this hype ends up as fluff.

Blaziken:
Chance: 10% I find putting in two fire start Pokemon even more unlikely

Want 5% The Torchic line has never really appealed to me.

 

[Smasher 101]

The extra nominations post has been updated.

Sceptile's chances: 8% - Hoenn remakes or not, I simply cannot see two Pokemon newcomers getting in over the very popular Mewtwo and/or the three-timer Jigglypuff, nor do I think the series will get seven characters. Hoenn remakes do slightly help him, but I'd still be surprised if he got a slot.
Blaziken's chances: 1% - Same thing as above with the additional problem of there already being a fire-type starter. I think if they really wanted to represent Gen III they'd probably finish off the trio of starter types.
Want: 0% (both) - No thank you. Not only do I not want a second Pokemon newcomer over Jiggs and/or Mewtwo, but I don't care for most of the Gen III Pokemon.

Already predicted.

Actually I think Vaati's up soon, so Jill x5.

 

[UnicornDemon]

Sceptile
Chance: 18%
Want: 100%

Blaziken
Chance: 2%
Want: 0%, please no

Nomz
Lanky Kong x5

Predictions (copied from last post)
Kid Icarus Smash Taunts: 53%
Wario Land Wario: 4.3%