Rate Their Chances: GAME OVER! Join the RTC Social Group Today!

[Zhadgon]

Sceptile
Chance: 7.77%
Want: 90%
Is my favourite Grass starter and that says something, I will first try Water types in every game but in the case of generation III Sceptile stole my heart (by the way Sceptile >>> Blaziken), I would love to see Mewtwo or Jigglypuff knocked out by this grass Pokemon and get a spot in the roster.

Mach Rider
Chance: 15%
Want: 90%
He / She should receive a second chance with a new game and being added to Smash as playable character could increase his / her opportunities.

Prediction:
Chibi-Robo: 25%
Marshal: 70%

.n_n.

 

[Wyoming]

Sceptile

Chance - 5% - Do we really need a grass-starter? Sure it's convenient that we have a fire and water-type on the roster but that isn't the reason why Charizard and Greninja are there. They were highly popular Pokémon from their generation (and while true for Greninja, he's also there for promotion reasons). While Sceptile has a sizeable fan base, he's overshadowed by fellow Hoenn starter Blaziken. Also there isn't any reason to promote Hoenn, so GameFreak are most likely not putting any priority over him. That leaves Sakurai as the sole decider of his fate. While the move set potential is there, I just can't see it. He won't add a random third gen rep that isn't even the face of his generation.

Want - 20% - Indifferent but we could do with less humanoid and/or serious Pokémon. I'd prefer a new small and innocent one.

Mach Rider

Chance - 5% - Unique play style is there, but I just don't see it happening.

Want - 50% - Indifferent.

 

[Deleted member]

Sceptile

Chance: 20%

It seems like a random choice for a grass-type Pokemon.

Want: 50%

I'm indifferent.


Mach Rider

Chance: 20%

He seems like a random choice for a retro character who, to my knowledge, hasn't made appearances recently.

Want: 80%

He doesn't fight in his game(s?), but neither did Captain Falcon. Plus, that theme song.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5zHZ59Ym8I

 

[Erimir]

Sceptile

Well, having a fire, water and grass starter would be a nice bit of symmetry. It's possible we could get him instead of either Mewtwo or Jigglypuff.

But I find Mewtwo and Jigglypuff both far more likely than any other Pokemon (collectively, not just individually). However, Sceptile seems like one of the most likely remaining options that's not a veteran... Hell, more likely than Squirtle or Ivysaur at this point. Ivysaur would be out of place, and weird to have without Squirtle. But Squirtle would be another water Pokemon, and at that point we're committed to no Pokemon cuts, so we'd have 7 Pokemon with the Brawl 6 + Greninja... it just doesn't work very well IMO.

Sceptile chances: 7%
Sceptile want: 50%
Eh. His design isn't that appealing to me, so I don't really care whether we get him vs. Mewtwo or whoever.

Mach Rider

He seems problematic to make and has a lot of overlap with Captain Falcon/Fox. He's a space bounty hunter, the difference for him vs. Captain Falcon is that he has a gun. I suppose he could be a combination Captain Falcon + Wario, with a bike-based special or two, a gun, and otherwise similar to Captain Falcon. That would be ok, but it's not like amazingly appealing IMO. Another problem for him is that nothing has changed to make him more likely aside from the elimination of some other retros (namely Pit and ROB). Sakurai could reevaluate, but he wasn't left out before because Sakurai didn't think about him.

Mach Rider chances: 5%
Mach Rider want: 40%
Meh.

Predictions:
Chibi Robo - 18%
I dunno. Doesn't seem like much should change his chances. Really, I think he's AT fodder. See what happened to Dillon?
Marshal - 20%
People don't know how to evaluate the supposed Chorus Men leak... it could be referring to Marshall.

Nominations:
Mario Kart 8 stage x5

Venusaur x5 ... Well, if Sakurai ISN'T going to cut Ivysaur, how much sense does it make for him to be an out of place MID EVOLUTION? Think about it, it actually kind of makes sense. Not saying that it has a huge chance of happening, but it's there.

Hmmmm... I actually thought about Bulbasaur vs. Ivysaur vs. Venusaur, and I think that Ivysaur is by far the most likely.

Bulbasaur is too small and weak... the bulb has less potential to be used in movesets.
Venusaur is too big and fat. He'd be a bit lumbering.
Ivysaur has the advantage of being both a veteran and not too big or small, with his flower-majigger being developed enough to be useful. I think that PT's set of Pokemon was perfectly chosen, with Squirtle, Ivysaur and Charizard being the best choices in each line, actually.

However, I find all three of them quite unlikely for the reasons that others have said.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Sceptile
Chance: 8%
Sceptile is a popular grass starter. He is arguably amongst the most popular grass starters, and many consider a Hoenn remake a sure fire thing(although they've been saying that since HeartGold and SoulSilver came out). However Sceptile's popularity wanes in comparison to Blaziken, his fellow Hoenn starter who in turn is not quite on Charizard's popularity level yet. Heck, Sceptile is arguably even less popular than his middle form Grovyle who received a starring role in Mystery Dungeon.

As a third gen Pokemon without a Mega form, he is probably not considered as a 'Hot' Pokemon right now, especially with no Hoenn remake confirmation in sight. His only way of realistically getting in is for his typing honestly as a counterpart to Charizard's fire and Greninja's water.

Pros:
+ Represents a currently unrepresented generation
+ In doing so doesn't exclude only one of it's generation's trio
+ Bipedal
+ Fairly popular for a grass starter

Cons:
- Arguably would be another swordsman type.
- Not exactly got a lot to make it a 'hot topic' Pokemon. No Mega form, not recent, etc.

Want: 85%
Sceptile is one of my favourite starters, joint for favourite grass type alongside Chesnaught, Greninja's fellow Kalos starter.
If Greninja offers a ninja moveset, then Sceptile with his leaf blade can easily offer a sort of samurai style moveset as a counterpart. Although admittedly Samurott would be a more ideal starter for this.

Sceptile also represents a currently unrepped(and skipped over) generation of Pokemon. If that matters.

Other options for grass starters specifically for fulfilling this weird starter triangle idea are:

Spoiler

Venusaur:

Spoiler

+ Popular Grass Starter. Possibly the most popular.
+ Has a Mega form
+ Due to being a second starter option in X/Y, is recent.
+ Can take Ivysaur's playstyle easily...due to being him/her all grown up.

- Can't have Venusaur and Charizard without Blastoise.
- Blastoise is unlikely to exist with Greninja there.
- Quadrapeds seem less likely to get in than bipedals.

Meganium:

+ Reps a currently not represented gen...if that matters

- Is the least popular grass starter to my knowledge. Which is saying something as they tend to be less popular than the fire and water starters typically.
- Quadraped. Again less likely than bipedal.

Torterra:

- Is a quadraped, and thus less likely than a bipedal.
- Lucario has the fourth gen covered.

Serperior:

+ Reps a currently not represented gen, if that matters.
+ Fairly popular
+ Fairly recent

- Not the most recent however, is somewhat old news now.
- Being a snake it may be difficult to program it to work well?
- Snivy is already a Pokeball Pokemon.

Chesnaught:

+ Most recent grass starter
+ Bipedal

- Including him means Delphox is the only 6th gen starter not included.
- Not hugely popular in comparison to Greninja
- Chespin is already a Pokeball Pokemon.

Mach Rider:
Chance: 20%
Sakurai's expressed interest in him before, he's a retro that offers something fairly new...but Sakurai struggled with Excitebiker and if you take Mach off the bike he is essentially a prototype Captain Falcon. Maybe one who uses their gun.

Want: 60%
Not my favourite retro option, but one I'd be satisfied with. In SSB: Crusade I have quite a lot of fun playing as them and yelling their name when ever they successfully KO someone. Followed by a guitar riff noise. Try it.


--------------------------

Predictions:
Marshall: 20%
Possible the Chorus Men are him and his two co hosts and Sal's slightly wrong I guess. It's a semi popular theory anyway.

Chibi Robo: 18.5%
Stab in the dark.

Nominations:
Six Super Mario Characters X 5

 

[NickerBocker]

Sceptile
Chance: 10%
Want: 50%

Something has changed in Pokemon since the direct. With PT unexpectedly gone and a new addition being an unexpected starter, along with Charizard returning, there is now a missing piece of the starter triangle. That missing piece ia the grass type starter. Whether this is actually an established pattern or some indication towards a grass type is yet to be determined. This certainly helps a character like Treecko, who seems to be the frontrunner in the grasstype and Pokemon race behind Mewtwo. He is one of if not the most popular grass type so his addition wouldnt be that surprising.

Theres not much else to say about him other than that, and it is my firm belief that Mewtwo holds the lead by a large amount still. I also do want Mewtwo more, but i wouldnt be upset if Treecko was in first. Ive accepted that Pokemon will swap characters out because of their massive number of potential candidates.

Mach Rider
Chance: 20%
Want: 65%

Could be interesting. A retro character is Something that we will most likely get, due to its continuing theme. G&W/IC in Melee, ROB and Pit in Brawl, who's to say that we wont get another one this game?

It doesnt necessarily have to be Mach Rider, but other than Takamaru, Mach Rider certainly holds up as a strong contender. He is possible, but not the most likely choice as our retro candidate.

Predictions
Marshall: 8.3%
Chibi Robo: 13.3%

 

[PK_Wonder]

Sceptile 0.5%
I'm saying this as a huge Treecko-line fan: I'm not buying the necessity of having a grass starter as a standalone character. Sceptile is the most feasible and suitable, although non-third form evolutions aren't necessarily deconfirmed just because 2 out 3 (Charizard and Greninja) are fully evolved. Also, Mewtwo and Jigglypuff are more relevant/important/and insanely more popular; meanwhile, Sceptile and his generation have no chance of having a remake before Smash, and Sceptile didn't receive a Mega.
Want: 40%

Mach Rider: 15.50% A seasonable retro choice who is more suited as an Assist Trophy. If given an edgy and intricate series revision a la Uprising, I would be more satisfied. If Sakurai goes with an "obscure" AND "retro" pick, which he may not, it will likely be someone he wants to rebirth. Little Mac and Mega Man, while not true retros, both resonate as a retros, and could have taken the slot of Mach Rider and his peers.
Want: 30%

predict:
Chibi-Robo: 18%
Marshal: 14%

nominate: "X" protagonist x3, Flynn x2

 

[Leafeon523]

Sceptile:
Chance: 6%
1 extra % for lack of a grass type.
Want: 40%
Indifferent.
Mach Rider
Chance: 5%
I think it's impossible to predict any specific retro, especially with the possibility of there being none at all!
Want: 10%
Not a fan.
Noms:
Vaati rerate x5
Predictions:
Chibi-robo: 24%
Marshall: 20%

 

[The Light Music Club]

I think I'm definitely in the minority here, but I doubt having the Smash Icon as a logo in the Direct means anything at all. Think of it this way: would Sakurai really have shown a Sin and Punishment logo there if Isa were indeed in the game? He didn't reveal the Punch-Out logo on the Boxing Ring, after all.

Want scores are all about bias! Pile it on! The main reason they're there is so people can express their biases there while keeping their other score as bias-free as possible.


...just joking! I just wanted to see who actually would read that. I've fixed it this time.

I agree with this reasoning. I'm not going to spend my nominations on Venasaur just yet, but I will eventually do so.

I agree entirely. High expectations breed disappointment; low expectations breed joy.

Yup, Environmental. I think it went over pretty well. How'd you handle things?

Welcome to Smashboards and to this game! If you need anything, give me a holler!


You stole my line! Bad moderator!
Chrom AT: 25%
I give Chrom a 50% shot at playability; he makes a really strong case, and I could see it going either way. Likewise, I could see him getting an AT go either way if he is deconfirmed.
Chrom AT Want: 100%
Chrom's going to be in this game as a playable character, I'll like his trailer, and then I'll be hailed as a band-wagoner and a hypocrite. However, as of right now, I can honestly say I have no desire to see Chrom become playable, and this is a good scenario in my eyes.
50 Character Roster: 20%
Sorry, no time to explain the following:
<40 Characters: 0% chance
41-43 Characters: 10% chance
44-46 Characters: 40% chance
47-49 Characters: 30% chance
50+ Characters: 20% chance
50 Character Roster: 100%
I run Rate Their Chances. I may obsess over potential Smash Newcomers more than any other person in the world. How would I not be pleased by a large roster?

Professor Layton x5
I need to drop his chance and boost his want.

Day Over

Return of Groose
​

Eh, two of the essays were hard, but the multiple choice wasn't too bad. My teacher just had us take notes the whole year, so I wasn't as prepared as I hoped.

I'll post my ratings later.

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Sceptile: 0%. Unless Gen 3 remakes happen... even then, Blaziken is more likely.
Want: 35%. I'm slightly attached to his family.
Mach Rider: 60%. All honesty, he seems like the most likely retro now.
Want: 55%. Slightly interested.
Mewtwo X5

 

[FinalSynthesis]

welcome to the boards mate,
its pretty great to see some people make their first appearance on this thread here

Thanks man. I've been looking around for the last couple of weeks, and this whole forum seems pretty worthwhile. This thread feels like one I can contribute to as well.

Sceptile
Chance: 2%
Sceptile is pretty much irrelevant other than the fact that some people feel we need to complete the triumvirate. At this point it would seem like grasping at straws; his only saving grace is that he and Blaziken seem to be the only two other Pokemon starters that fans would possibly want to see.

Want: 5%
He doesn't seem too bad as a character, and I wouldn't mind Pokemon getting one or two more slots to be honest, but Sceptile just doesn't seem appropriate for the game.

Mach Rider: Abstain

 

[Deleted member]

Sceptile and Mach Rider have been added to the Directory.
If you have rated Mach Rider before, check to see what you've said on his day!

Sceptile
Chance: 1%
I'm not that confident in Sceptile. Being a grass starter doesn't mean that you will be granted a spot on the roster. If we get a playable Pokemon from Gen III, I am thinking that we would get Blaziken. I don't think that Gen III will get a representative as that time has come and gone; unless Game Freak has Gen III remakes in the works, I bet that they want to stick with Greninja as our newcomer.
For the record, Grovyle would get a 1% or a 2% from me. PMD popularity has got to mean something.
Want: 30%
It would be interesting, but I didn't use Sceptile in my Emerald run; I used Blaziken. Also, if I wanted a grass type, I would choose Breloom.

Mach Rider
Chance: 5%
My ratings for retros has to drop down accordingly.
Why? Because of Wire Frame Mac. Seeing as how that is a reference to very early iterations of Punch Out!!, it might be possible that Little Mac might count as a retro character even though he was revived in the Wii era. There is also the matter of Takamaru, the most requested retro and one that I think that Sakurai has his eye on.
I can see Sakurai choose Mach Rider to create an inventive moveset for him and because he recognizes the series. Other than that, I think that he is going to make it in as a sticker or trophy with his song from Melee returning. I expect him to be outcompeted or skipped over.
Want: 60%
Only because I want to see what Sakurai can do with him.

Chibi-Robo Prediction: 25.09%
Honestly, I can see Chibi-Robo get some higher scores. As I've mentioned before, this guy is kinda underrated. If Captain Rainbow isn't going to be our Skip rep, it will be this guy.
Marshal Prediction: 28.67%
The Chorus Men's overall rating. I've stated that we should have rated Marshal alongside the Chorus Men. I say that there is a possibility that the Chorus Men were mixed up with Marshal. This day shall be interesting... I sense some leak doubters and leak supporters.

Nominations: Wario Land Wario 5x

Thanks man. I've been looking around for the last couple of weeks, and this whole forum seems pretty worthwhile. This thread feels like one I can contribute to as well.

I didn't say this before myself, but welcome to the thread!

 

[BluePikmin11]

Sceptile Chance: 3% Don't really think that he has that big of a chance, and the grass-water-fire starter theory doesn't really hold water.
Sceptile Want: 30% I prefer Chesnaught more.
Mach Rider Chance: 17% Just increased 2% only because of the amount of content Smash is bringing including Color Game TV-15.
Nominations:
x5 Ayumi Tachibana

 

[Sonic Poke]

Sceptile:
Chance: 50%- The triangle Water/ Fire/ Grass is traditional. It was featured in Brawl and I think that they will not cut it. And well, 3rd gen remakes for E3/later? It's a possibility.
Want: 100%- I've always picked grass starters! And it's my favorite type. And Sceptile was my first (and only so far) female starter!

Mach Rider:
Chance: 25%- I don't know him, but he's possible as a retro addition.
Want: 25%- I don't care. He seems to be cool anyway.

 

[Rockaphin]

Sceptile:
Chance: 7%
Want: 6%
I prefer almost any other grass starter. Heck I like Grovyle and Treecko more. Sceptile is alright though.

Mach Rider:
Chance: 60%
Want: 90%
One of the only retro candidates that I care for. I feel that he is underrated in terms of likelihood. Sakurai seems to have an interest in his character or at least recognizes him.

Nominations:
Six Mario Characters x5

 

[Pacack]

Mach Rider:

Chance: 2%
I honestly don't see why he's getting so many 20% ratings. I'm only willing to give him a tenth of that. Not only is he facing ridiculous competition from Takamaru, but he's also incredibly similar to Captain Falcon in appearance and origins. I just don't think we'll be getting two obscure, automobile riding characters. There are several retros that would be a better choice.

Want: 0%
Give me Takamaru or give me death.

Sceptile:

Chance: 5%
Possible, but I think we'd get Ivysaur/Venusaur before him. Not only is the first gen starter more iconic, but they've already got a base to work with rather than starting from scratch. That, and I don't see Pokemon getting two complete newcomers and Mewtwo, and I'd still give Mewtwo about an 80% chance.

Want: 60%
I like him. He was the starter I chose the first time I played gen 3, even if I never finished the game with him. I ended up getting a new save and choosing Blaziken instead, so I care more about him, but I'd be happy to see either...after Mewtwo and Jigglypuff.

Predictions:
Chibi Robo: 19.77%
I'm interested on how this one turns out.

Marshal: 13.34%
I'm mainly curious about the want on this one, honestly. I know a lot of people would rather see Marshal than Chorus Men.

Nominations: Sheriff x5

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Sceptile:
Chance - 1%
Want: 0%

Mach Rider:
Chance: 4% -Considered for Melee. Possible, not likely.
Want: 100% IF TAKAMARU IS ALSO IN
Predictions: Chibi - 18.55%
Marshal - 25%

Noms:
Tails x 5

 

[Bradli Wartooth]

Sceptile-
Chance: 15% Just because he'd complete the triangle AND he'd be cool, he's just not likely at all.
Want: 75% As far as Pokemon characters go, he'd be a badass.

Mach Rider-
Chance: 10% Mach Rider is highly requested, but has not had a game in a VERY long time. Mach Rider is the definition of irrelevant right now.
Want: 1% Just no. There are far more options that are far better.

 

[FalKoopa]

Sceptile: 2%
As others have said, the only merit he has is that he's grass type. I still believe that Ivysaur has a good chance of returning, and if not, his moveset can be transferred to Venusaur rather easily. And add the fact that Blaziken is more popular among the 3rd Gen starters.

Want: 55%
My 3rd Gen starter of choice, but I'm not too big on him.

Mach Rider: 15%
Probably as good or bad a chance as other retros. Not much to say, really.

Mach Rider: 45%
Can't say I really care.

 

[False Sense]

Sceptile Chance: 1%

Honestly, I'm rather shocked to see that people think this is really a legitimate possibility. This is a moderately popular character that has little to no relevance at this point in time and is vastly overshadowed by another, much more popular character that is relevant at this point in time. So why is he suddenly regarded as a plausible character choice?

Because he completes a three part pattern. ...Yeah, if completing patterns meant so much, we would have seen characters like Waluigi and Toon Zelda playable.

Sceptile Want: 50%

Well, I do have to admit, I do rather like Sceptile, and I think he could be a cool character. But with the Pokemon slots already being so heavily competed, I would hate to see Sceptile, a character who we really have no need for whatsoever, get in over a veteran like Jigglypuff or an insanely popular and very deserving character like Mewtwo.

 

[a smart guy]

Sceptile:
Chance: 12% Well he's a popular grass type. That's about it.
Want: 50% He was my starter for Hoenn, but I don't think he's that cool.

Mach Rider:
Chance: 15% He was originally at 10% but he gets an extra 5% for having an extremely catchy theme song.
Want: 55% I'm indifferent, but that theme song makes me want him. He would make an interesting assist trophy though.

Predictions:
Chibi-Robo (Yay we did it!): 39.2%
Marshal: 21.8%

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Sceptile - 2%
like what others said his only purpose is just being a grass type, he really has no merits unlike Charizard and Greninja, I just don't see it happening
want - 30%
I would mainly want him for my brother, he's big on the gen 3 starters but other than that I would pass
mach rider - 6.50%
he's a lot like captain falcon at the moment, and he pretty obscured, the only merit I believe he has is because sakurai likes his game, that puts him in competition but he's outclassed by other retros
want - 50%
i'm indifferent
Chibi-Robo - 20.61%
I don't know, I guess a minor boost
Marshal -30.71%
if chorus men got a good score I expect him to go a bit higher
Nominations:
Kid Icarus smash tauntsX20

 

[PokéMurio]

Sceptile:
Chance: 20% Grass equivalent of Charz/Greninja, Ivysaur is not happening, nor Blaziken very fast which raises chances, and moveset would be pretty easy to make yet diverse, if 3rd gen remake is revealed in E3 i raise chances to 50%
Want: 100% One of my favourite Pokémon. I've had poster of it on my wall for 5 years.

Mach Rider:
Chance 10% Well... he has had some spotlight time in SSB and he is nice but... for fighter?
Want: 1-2% i don't care for him.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Sceptile: 12%
I don't entirely believe that a Gass-type must be in to balance things out, especially given how Sakurai completely ignored all the status ailments that make Grass (and theBulbsaur line) an interesting type for Ivy in the last game... But I'm not so sure Game Freak feel that way. They've always loved the fire/water/grass combo... but also have Mega-Blaziken and no others.... it's really an odd situation, that doesn't warrant a very high chance, but not a terrible one....

The big thing though is Hoenn Remakes, they're highly requested, and this would be a great way to advertise them... I do think they're likely, and have a good shot of being revealed at E3... but they'd need to be for Sceptile's chances to cross over 10%...


Want: 80%
I'd be pretty happy about this, but I'm not sure I want to loose another Pokémon, or have so many on the roster... it deserves it as it's the second best selling video-game franchise of all time, and when you include Merchandise the first most, and doesn't have any spin-off slots... but still not sure...



Mach Rider: 1%
Retros should be obscure, but I think it important that a Retro is highly important (R.O.B and G&W important) or potential to a reboot (Ice Climbers and Pit, the latter even got the reboot)... Mach Rider does not fit either in my opinion... but Sakurai is Sakurai...


Want: 0%
It'd be a waste when Takamaru or many others could make something more out of their Retro Smash appearance..



I'm a little robot, short and stout: 18.8%
He screams AT!

Let's spread our wings now: 35.9%
I thought he was the most likely Rhythm Paradise character before the leak...


Ryu Hayabusa*5

 

[Sid-cada]

Sceptile

Chance - 7.5% - A small yet respectable amount. While he would complete a well defined trio at this point, it's entirely reasonable for him to be skipped over in favor of Mewtwo and Jigglypuff. Of the Grass starters, though, I think he would have the best shot.

Want - 55% - Just because I don't want an incomplete starter trio. I'll take any grass starter, as otherwise I feel there's too much favoritism going on.


Mach rider

Chance - 20% - About average for a retro. He's just what I would consider the baseline for a retro character.

Want - 60% - Only if they can pull off an entire move set on a bike. Otherwise I don't care.


Predictions

Chibi Robo - 19.45% - Just natural fluctuation in rating.

Marshal - 10.45% - Essentially a speculation on a supposed leak.


Nominations
Kid Icarus Smash Taunts X5

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Because he completes a three part pattern. ...Yeah, if completing patterns meant so much, we would have seen characters like Waluigi and Toon Zelda playable.

That's not a good example. Toon Zelda has a perfectly plausible chance of making it in.

 

[False Sense]

That's not a good example. Toon Zelda has a perfectly plausible chance of making it in.

With transformations gone, I find Toon Zelda to be highly unlikely. Tetra could get in alone, I think, but not Toon Zelda.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

With transformations gone, I find Toon Zelda to be highly unlikely. Tetra could get in alone, I think, but not Toon Zelda.

She was planned to be in Brawl, so I'd wouldn't be surprised if she made it into Smash 4.

 

[Mr_Anderson]

Sceptile Chance: 18%
Sceptile Want: 15%

I don't think Sceptile is really iconic enough of a Pokemon to get in Smash Bros. If there were to be a grass type, it would probably be Venusaur, since he is the most popular grass type, I believe. And if there were to be a Gen 3 Pokemon, it would most likely be Blaziken, who is pretty much the most popular Pokemon from that gen. Sceptile would be kinda cool, but I just don't see it really happening. He does have a slightly higher chance than most, though.

Mach Rider Chance: 15%
Mach Rider Want: 55%

Mach Rider is pretty much a blank slate of a character like Captain Falcon, which I kind of like about him/her. (S)he would be a retro rep, and overall I think would be an interesting character. However, I believe that there are a lot more deserving retro reps out there, like Takamaru. Mach Rider is cool, but I can't really see it happening.

Predictions:
Chibi-Robo: 23.4%
Marshal: 39.6%

Nominations:
Crono x5

 

[False Sense]

She was planned to be in Brawl, so I'd wouldn't be surprised if she made it into Smash 4.

This isn't Brawl, though. She was planned to be in as a transforming character. That, and Toon Zelda's nature would more than likely lead to her being a clone of Zelda. Considering the emphasis placed on introducing unique characters onto the roster, adding something like Toon Zelda seems like a step backwards. Again, Tetra solo is far more likely than Toon Zelda is at this point. There really isn't much of a point to Toon Zelda as long as Tetra is there and transformations are no longer a thing.

 

[Arcanir]

Abstaining from Mach Rider

Sceptile
Chances: 5%
I don't think the circumstances are really in his favor. On the forefront of type balance, Sakurai has not shown that he really cares to keep that balance and more then likely the choices of Greninja and Charizard were made without that in mind. Similarly, while Sceptile is popular in his own right, he is completely lacking compared to those two and Jigglypuff and Mewtwo. To take it even further, even if Gen 3 was decided to get a rep, he's probably wouldn't be first on the list as he's less popular then his compatriot Blaziken, who is one of the posterboys (if not the posterboy) for his generation and even got a Mega Evolution over him and Swampert.

So, while he is one of the more ideal choices for a Grass type starter, there's a lot that he lacks, and considering that most of the candidates have more going for them, I can't say that him being a Grass type starter is enough to get him into the game.

Want: 90%
I love this line and I'd love to play as him (or Grovyle or Treecko, I'd take any of them).

 

[ultimatekoopa]

Sceptile- 1% This is not a pkmn game, we don't a grass starter as none of them are as popular as charizard and chesnaught isn't anywhere as popular as greninja, sceptile isn't even the favorite starter of his generation as blaziken was the favorite of his generation, and being the only hoenn starter to get a mega form, add that there is jigglypuff, who is unlikely to get cut and mewtwo, one of the most popular pkmn in these moments as competition, then sceptile stands little to no chance, even if we got a hoenn remake, I would bet that Blaziken would be far more likely than him
Want 5% I played emerald but I chose swampert and in heart gold I chose blaziken
Mach Rider 7% He/She doesn't have anything interesting, Takamaru is the most likely retro newcomer being used in captain rainbow, samurai warriors and nintendoland
Want 0% I don't care about him/her

 

[pandajedi]

Sceptile
Chance: 12%
I don't think type symmetry has any impact on Sakurai's choice, and unlike Charizard and Greninja, Sceptile doesn't have a lot of a reason to appear besides completing that symmetry. Although, if there indeed are Gen 3 remakes coming, or if Sakurai just wants a grass type to replace Ivysaur, I could see it happening.
Want: 50%
My want would be higher, but I would prefer Grovyle. I think Grovyle is the coolest of its evolutionary line, and it has added significance in the Pokemon Mystery Dungeon series that makes it stand out more. But even more than either of them I just want Mewtwo.

Mach Rider
Chance: 10%
His chance comes only from the fact that he hasn't been deconfirmed and that he's obscure enough to be an oddball retro choice, but I think there's more likely options to fill that role (I'd take Duckhunt Dog or Muddy Mole any day)
Want: 0%
I have no real attachment whatsoever.

Nominations:
Veteran downgraded to AT x 5

 

[Toxicroaker]

Sceptile: 2%
Want: 0%

Mach Rider: 15% The frontrunner(driver?) of retros after Takamaru.
Want: 50% I would prefer the Excitebikers.

Chibi Robo: 19.31%
Marshal: 14.86%

I'm back with my fifteen extra nominations, and after seeing that copy of Flingsmash (yes, it is first party) that has been there for about two years now at my local Walmart, I decided I would finally do it...
x5 x20 Zip (FlingSmash)
I almost forgot about my extra noms... Heh... Heh...

 

[loganhogan]

Sceptile:
chance 10% want 10%
Being a grass is about the only defense I can find for it but it's not exclusive to him either.

Mach Rider:
chance: 13% want 33%
Mach Rider would complement Captain Falcon and that's nice at least but he kind of lacks wackiness and oddness other retro characters could bring.

Aw Sh*T I didn't get to vote yesterday!

Barbara x5

 

[Groose]

Sceptile Chance: 5%
I'm not a big fan of the whole "there must be a grass type starter" reasoning, as I professed on Ivysaur's day. I've been skeptical about Hoenn remakes for five years, and I'm even more skeptical they'll impact Smash. I'll give Sceptile a notable amount, but I just don't think he's in contention; keep in mind, he's not even the most popular Gen III Starter.

Sceptile Want: 100%
1) RSE are my most-played Pokemon games.
2) Hoenn is my favorite region.
3) Sceptile is my only non-Water starter of choice; he's also my favorite.
4) The image in the spoiler tags served as my epic farewell to religiously watching the anime.
[collapse=I HATE DARKRAI WITH A PASSION!]

[/collapse]

Mach Rider: 5%
Like Takamaru, Lip, the Balloon Fighter, and a few others we know Sakurai knows of and likes him. That's a major point in his favor. The thing that makes me rate him so low, however, is that he faces problems similar to the Excitebiker in terms of workability and the sheer number of other Retro candidates who have more distinctive advantages.

Mach Rider Want: 50%
I feel like he'd be a really, really interesting character if they went all out on him. I'm just not sure if I would like that they put a great deal of work into a character like him instead of someone more popular, important, or otherwise appealing. All in all, I can't really see myself getting hyped over him, but I can't really see myself being disappointed with him.

Professor Layton x5

DAY OVER
THANKS TO BRAWLER610
​

 

[Groose]

SceptileChance: 8.84%
Want: 45.79%

Mach RiderChance: 13.92%
Want: 36.64%

Mach Rider won the battle of likelihoods, but Sceptile walked away with the title of more wanted. The scores and noms were tallied by @Brawler610 today; give him a hand. Without further ado, I'm moving on; short on time due to AP Testing.

Today we're rating Marshal and Chibi Robo. Marshal hails from Rhyhtm Heaven and bares a striking similarity to the Chorus Kids; could he have been confused for one by the Gematsu leaker? Chibi Robo is harder to confuse; the little cleaning robot is pretty visually distinct... but is it in a good way? Tomorrow we'll be discussing the possibility of "Kid Icarus Smash Taunts" (aka codecs for Pit and/or Palutena) and "Wario Land Wario" (Wario getting overhauled to more closely represent his appearance in the Wario Land franchise). Predict!

 

[andimidna]

I'm trying to understand why people are saying Mach Rider is going to drop significantly...
A lot of his competition has been hurt.

- Villager's Balloon Recovery from Balloon Fight
- Greninja's shuriken, swords, teleportation, and overall weight and style's similarity to Takamaru's potential playstyle
- Lip's Stick returning as an item

Here's what I thought/think of the 4:
(Just for fun, I wanted to add in other retros too)
[collapse=Pre E3 2013]
Takamaru: 55% / Want: 55%
Balloon Fighter: 45% / Want: 55%
Lip: 30% / Want: 30%
Mach Rider: 25% / Want: 10%
Sheriff: 7% / Want: 5%
Captain Rainbow: 5% / Want: 5%
Hikari & Donbe: 4% / Want: 10%
Wild Gunman: 3% / Want: 5%
Muddy Mole: 2% / Want: 0%
Duck Hunt Dog: 1% / Want: 0%
Daitoryo: 0% / Want: 0%
[/collapse]

[collapse=Post E3 2013]
Takamaru: 65% / Want: 60%
Lip: 35% / Want: 30%
Mach Rider: 30% / Want: 10%
Sheriff: 8% / Want: 10%
Captain Rainbow: 6% / Want: 5%
Hikari & Donbe: 5% / Want: 10%
Muddy Mole: 4% / Want: 5%
Wild Gunman: 3% / Want: 5%
Duck Hunt Dog: 1% / Want: 0%
Daitoryo: 0% / Want: 0%
Balloon Fighter: 0% / Want: 0%
[/collapse]

[collapse=Pre Smash Direct]
Takamaru: 70% / Want: 90%
Lip: 40% / Want: 100%
Mach Rider: 30% / Want: 15%
Captain Rainbow: 30% / Want: 60%
Sheriff: 25% / Want: 60%
Daitoryo: 15% / Want: 70%
Muddy Mole: 11% / Want: 30%
Hikari & Donbe: 10% / Want: 90%
Duck Hunt Dog: 9% / Want: 30%
Balloon Fighter: 5% / Want: 0%
Wild Gunman: 4% / Want: 10%
[/collapse]

[collapse= Now]
Mach Rider: 60% / Want: 80%
Takamaru: 45% / Want: 60%
Captain Rainbow: 30% / Want: 70%
Daitoryo: 25% / Want: 70%
Muddy Mole: 22% / Want: 20%
Lip: 20% / Want: 100%
Sheriff: 15% / Want: 60%
Wild Gunman: 12% / Want: 20%
Balloon Fighter: 10% / Want: 10%
Duck Hunt Dog: 9% / Want: 30%
Hikari & Donbe: 5% / Want: 95%
[/collapse]

Started out neutral to retros, scores went down on both sides when becoming a semi-clone arose as a possibility.
Yea, I'm starting to think Mach Rider is the frontrunner of the retros.
He's the character that if Sakurai were to translate into a fighter, would show off his creativity and uniqueness more than any other choice I can think of.

Edit: I just realized I put Captain Rainbow in a retro list... huh, not sure why. Well... I'm not taking him off

Here's what I said a few days ago about Mach Rider. And I still feel a retro addition is obvious. Little Mac is not a retro character anymore. Referencing old games means a retro? Well I guess half the roster is retro characters. I don't see how people can say Little Mac is a retro, but don't mention Pit as one still. Both came back. We currently have 0 retro veterans and 0 retro newcomers.
And Sakurai is very good at representing Nintendo's history... did you see that TV Game assist trophy?

I also I'm somewhat confident that Greninja was the final newcomer decided in the game, I doubt they could add a newer character.
And if they added Greninja last...
Why would they add Takamaru and not use any of the moves he actually has?
Why would they choose a newcomer from a series full of many different types of characters just for a Takamaru semi-clone?

Because Greninja has these moves now, I'm unsure on if they really added Takamaru with similar moves, or with moves unlike his actual in-game playstyle.

I'm not saying he's deconfirmed. Not at all. But I put him in 2nd place for retros now. Retros should really be unique. And even though he came first, he'd be confirmed 2nd. So he'd be the one getting called a Greninja clone. But, it's definitely possible that he has similar moves used differently, or something along those lines. I'm just not as sure as I used to be.

And Lip, the retro I used to put in 2nd place, has fallen because of Lip's stick.
Still not a 0, but not a good score.


Mach Rider:
Chance: 60%
I feel it's more likely than not we'll get a retro, and with Takamaru and Lip hurt, he seems to be the leader of the lesser picks, and I think things are suddenly looking good for him.

I don't think the Melee-Excitebike problem holds any significance anymore.
Sakurai has changed his view in the past.
Like Animal Crossing characters being too cute, even though he had added more innocent looking characters.

And excitebike racer being attached to his bike in his games, but we have For and Captain Falcon on the roster.

Want: 80%

I like him a a lot more now that I think he's actually going to be added.
I'd like to see wha-

And as I type this, Groose has just updated.

Poo.

Well, I guess I can still predict if nobody rates yet.

Chibi Robo- 20%
Marshall- 15%

Not really sure.

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Marshal: 5%. I doubt we'll see a RH character.
Want: 15%. Wrestler FTW.
Chibi Robo: 35%. Seems like AT material.
Want: 50%. Indifferent.
Mewtwo X5 (Could use some help.)

 

[Deleted member]

Marshal and Chibi-Robo have been added to the Directory.
If you have rated Chibi-Robo, check to see what you've said on his day!
Also, I recommend that you look back on the Chorus Men's day for Marshal!

Marshal
Chance: 30%
As I've mentioned before on the Chorus Men's day, there really isn't a distinct character from Rhythm Heaven they can go with. Out of all of those characters, Marshal is probably the most recognizable of them all. Other than that, I say that Sakurai would be more interested in working with him or the Chorus Men because he could create an inventive and creative moveset for them; you can create a moveset for Karate Joe or Wrestler, but Sakurai might not be interested as them.
I gave the Chorus Men a 30% and I am giving Marshal the same. The Chorus Men are aesthetically similar to Marshal, meaning that confusion may have been caused between Marshal and the Chorus Men. As such, I believe that he too benefits from the Gematsu leak; if it's true, we will get Marshal or the Chorus Men. Though, to Marshal's benefit, he would be less of a technical mess than the Chorus Men (with 3 characters being controlled at once similar to the duo Ice Climbers), but the Chorus Men could be seen as more unique to Sakurai.
Personally, I think that the leak hinges on Marshal and the Chorus Men. If one of them gets confirmed, then I will believe the leak.
Want: 65%
I have never played Rhythm Heaven, so I have no connection to this guy.
However, I do like his design and I wonder what he could do in Smash. Also, if he gets confirmed, then that means the Chorus Men (a technical nightmare) aren't playable and he would pseudo-confirm Shulk as I would believe the leak...
So it's a win-win for me! Now Marshal, get in the fight and make some Mechanical Rhythm for me and Shulk!

Chibi-Robo
Chance: 23%
Looking back on my older posts... I mostly gave poor and short explanations for my scores.
Chibi-Robo is still a pretty popular character in the hearts of Nintendo fans. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Iwata say that he likes seeing fan favorites get revived in that one Nintendo Direct? It kinda shows that Nintendo has their eyes set on Chibi-Robo for now. It pretty much helps that he was recently revived in a 3DS game.
While he is popular, his requests frankly aren't the best. I don't think that he will be another character to represent an unrepresented franchise. I expect characters like Shulk from Xenoblade, Isaac from Golden Sun, and a character from Rhythm Heaven do that before Chibi-Robo does.
The confirmation of the fat Little Mac trophy gives us insight that Skip Ltd., the creators of Chibi-Robo, have some involvement in Smash. This is seen as three things:
1. Skip might want to be represented with a character and would choose Chibi-Robo as he is their most well-known character.
2. Sakurai would represent Skip with Captain Rainbow as he could be somewhat biased (he's a fan of the game after all).
3. The only involvement Skip is going to get is with Assist Trophies, trophies, stickers, and music.
I see Chibi-Robo be a serious contender for this game. There aren't a lot of things going for him, however.
Want: 60%
Like Marshal, I have no connection to Chibi-Robo, so I am mostly indifferent. However, I will give Chibi-Robo an extra 10% as I like his design and I wonder what he could do in Smash.

Kid Icarus Smash Taunts Prediction: 30.14%
This is entirely possible, but I bet there will be some doubts here.
Wario Land Wario Prediction: 15.39%
Such a concept isn't that likely as or as demanded as a Decloned Ganondorf is. Regardless, I am interested in the want score.

What will I nominate next? I am about to nominate something... controversial...
Nominations: Gematsu Leak is Real 10x
Yes! We've rated the characters! Now, let's see how much the leak itself holds up.
EDIT: Using extra noms that I received from Smasher 101.