Rate Their Chances: GAME OVER! Join the RTC Social Group Today!

[Groose]

Since it's a Sunday, I probably wouldn't have updated anyway, but the fact that my first AP Test of the season is bright and early tomorrow morning solidifies the no-update for tonight. Smell ya tomorrow!

 

[Arcanir]

Chrom AT
Chances: 5%
I see a small chance that he won't be playable, from there, I see an even smaller chance that he'd be an AT between the different options.

Want: 0%
The idea of him being an AT doesn't interest me at all.

50+ Character roster
Chances: 35%
It's definitely possible, but it depends on the goal (of which Sakurai didn't seem that keen on in some interviews), time and resources.

Want: 90%
I would like to see a lot of characters in this game and this situation would allow for just that, but I will knock off some points since there are potential balance issues that can be troublesome.

 

[The Light Music Club]

Since it's a Sunday, I probably wouldn't have updated anyway, but the fact that my first AP Test of the season is bright and early tomorrow morning solidifies the no-update for tonight. Smell ya tomorrow!

What AP Test Groose? Chem or Environmental? I'm taking Environmental.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Chrom AT

Chance 5%
Yea hes more likely for playable thats like 85% chance of being playable

Want 0%
I want him playable not AT

50 roster

Chance 47%
This is pretty good size that could happen its 45-50 characters for this smash bros

Want 100%
Everyone in The universe wants rosters in games bigger in game sequels this is no different

Oh for predictions

Mach rider 60%

Because of villagers helmet (up special) and the stage hes focus on balloon fighter more i think mach rider will be no different in my opinion (aka the resurrection of the consideration of balloon fighter and mach rider)

 

[Chandeelure]

-Chrom AT:
Chances: 15%
Want: 10%

-50 Roster:
Chances: 45%
Want: 100%

-Nominations: Prince Fluff X5

 

[Autumn ♫]

Chrom Assist Trophy
Chance:15%
Not really likely, it's more likely for him to be playable or just a trophy.

Want:100%
Anything to keep Chrom away from the roster.

50+ Roster
Chance:65%
With the loss of transformation characters, and having alot of good characters to choose from, like andimidna showed, it's quite likely now.

Want:100%
Who wouldn't love to see this?

 

[Karafuru]

Chrom AT:
-Chance: 5%
Chrom is going to be playable or not. Other Fire Emblem characters would be more appropriate as assists.
-Want: 50%
Smeh.

50+ Roster:
-Chance: 55%
There are quite a bit of likely returning veterans, especially with Toon Link revealed so early.
-Want: 50%
It depends. Will the roster be balanced with that amount of characters? If so, yes please. But if not, just give me a balanced and fun game.

Predictions:
Sceptile: 11%
Mach Rider: 6.5%

Noms:
5x Pokemon Newcomer that is not Mewtwo

 

[IvanQuote]

Chrom AT:

Chance: 2%

If he were to appear he would as an alternate costume or his own character, more likely the former being the poster boy for awakening and all.

Want: 0%

If another FE AT were put in, it should be of a class type other than lord(?), such as a lancer, axe person, Pegasus rider, etc.

50+ Roster:

Chance: 35%

Sakurai said he'd rather have a smaller balanced cast rather than a larger one. I feel it would be most likely a 50 character roster + 3 characters.

Want: Abstain

I trust Sakurai's judgement. But I'll cry if Jiggs or Isaac don't get in.

Predictions:

Sceptile: 40%

Mach Rider: 10%

Nominations: Since I predicted yesterday, I think I have x10 now? Regardless, all in for Prince Fluff (x5)

Edit: Fixed nominations

 

[Kenith]

Chrom Assist Trophy:

Chance: 10%. There's a lot of people who want this guy to be playable. He's a very prominent character - having him as a mere Assist Trophy would be unfitting for him.

Want: 0%. He would make a very bland character. Hell, he already is bland. I really don't want him playable. However, him being an AT would be really lame too; he would just run around and slash a little bit, who needs more of that?

50+ Roster

Chance: 90%. Considering that transformation characters are now indisputably considered separate characters, the high production values this game seems to have, and the fact we only need 11 new characters (meaning, only five more unrevealed characters, assuming no cuts take place) for this to happen, I consider this almost guaranteed. I don't think we'll be seeing anything over 52, but 50 is very reasonable, and a good number.

Want: 100%. Absolutely not. I want as few characters as possible to get the game sooner.

Pffffft! Who doesn't want over 50 characters?!
-------------
Sceptile Prediction: 20%.
Mach Rider: 15%.
-------------
Nominations: Third Party Assist Trophy (As in, not related to playable character, ex. Phoenix Wright for Capcom) x5

 

[andimidna]

Two isn't much of a pattern though.

Also, who is the popular one out of Mr. Game & Watch and Ice Climbers? I don't think either one was a popular choice at the time.
I think this has more to do with people assuming that a couple retro characters are a given and looking for who they would want to fill those slots. If people weren't already assuming that we would be getting retro characters, I think there'd be a lot less people talking or caring about them. A lot of them became forgotten characters for a reason. Some of them might be considered cool ideas without this factor. Takamaru has samurai appeal... IMO Duck Hunt Dog would have almost no fans at all if people didn't think that Sakurai "has to" add a retro, preferably a wacky one. It also seems like American fans of Japanese exclusives are pretty much caused by this phenomenon of trawling for retros IMO.

But I don't think he has to have one. I think he'll add a couple retros if they're appealing enough... but it's possible he won't find any of them, or at least not two of them, appealing enough. That is, he may be on the lookout for a retro candidate, but I don't think he'll put in a retro for the sake of having a retro.
Little Mac has had a decent amount of retro flavor with his artwork and the wire-frame costume, etc...
That's what I meant by this not being an explanation. I think that a huge roster is unlikely, therefore their chances would add up to less than that for me. That's not evidence, it just is consistent with my differing opinion.

My evidence is that Sakurai himself said he would not be emphasizing increasing the roster size... and that suggests that we should expecting AT THE HIGH END the kind of increase we saw in the previous two installments. And that kind of increase gets us to 50 characters... meaning 50+ characters should be towards the high end, thus unlikely.

My evidence isn't based on looking at the characters, because:
1. the two things are related. You give higher scores to characters because you think a large roster is likely, and you say a large roster is likely because you give higher scores to characters. But if you thought a smaller roster size was more likely, you would think there's more competition between those characters and thus lower their scores (hence why my scores are consistently lower).

2. we saw that during Brawl speculation people think every character is plausible, every character could be cool, and so they massively overrated them. I mean, why wouldn't he put in Tom Nook, or Krystal, or Ridley, or Vaati, or Black Shadow, Toad, Isaac, King K Rool, Geno, Wolf Link? They're all cool, right? Those were all characters that the Brawl predictions rated about 50%! But they essentially predicted an 80+ character roster because they didn't adjust their scores realistically to reflect the number of slots that were realistically available. They weren't even close! Even if they had thought that a significantly larger increase than Melee was likely, like a 20 character increase, they still overestimated by 25-30 characters. This shows me that people are bad at considering these things at an individual basis. However, their predictions weren't that bad... if you adjusted them to match a realistic roster size.

3. Less importantly, since I know people will dismiss this as black magic, and this actually is higher than what I think it will be, but my sales-based model predicts something like 44-50 slots, excluding 3rd parties. It basically predicts no series size cuts (it thinks Star Fox, Pokemon and Earthbound are the only ones with much likelihood to get fewer characters). Adding in 3rd parties would make that like 46-54 slots, so based on that, 50+ slots should still only be about 50%...

But it also doesn't know anything about the candidates and gives negative scores to some series. So it gives G&W, Ice Climbers and ROB chances of getting newcomers, despite that being basically impossible. IMO, it also greatly overestimates Wario (not knowing that Wario is really the only big character), Yoshi (not knowing that it overlaps significantly with Mario), Pikmin (not knowing that other candidates are extremely similar to Olimar), and F-Zero (not knowing the series is dead). After correcting for these things and adding in 3rd parties, we get an estimate of 45-52 slots, which seems about right to me.

I think the evidence should be based on the roster sizes of the previous Smash games and Sakurai's comments specifically relevant to the overall roster size, not on your thoughts about individual characters which are colored by your thoughts about roster size in the first place.
But people thought that with Brawl as well. And then the roster came in at half the size they predicted.

And Sakurai skipped over a lot of deserving characters for Melee and Brawl. Diddy, Dedede, Meta Knight and Wario were skipped for Melee. Mewtwo, Toad, Isaac, Little Mac, Animal Crossing, Ridley, Dixie/K Rool, Krystal, etc. were skipped for Brawl.

He will probably skip over a lot of characters people "couldn't see him skipping out on" again. He's not going to please everyone. Better to be prepared for that than to make your expectations sky-high.

I'd get a much better perspective on your views towards this if i saw your roster, but this isn't the kind of thread for that, so look at this:

1. Mario: 100%
2. Luigi: 100%
3. Peach: 100%
4. Bowser: 100%
5. Rosalina: 100%
6. DK: 100%
7. Diddy: 100%
8. A DK Newcomer: 99%
9. Yoshi: 100%
10. Wario: 100%
11. Link: 100%
12. Zelda: 100%
13. Sheik: 100%
14. Ganondorf: 100%
15. Toon Link: 100%
16. Pit: 100%
17. Palutena: 99%
18. Samus: 100%
19. Zero Suit Samus: 100%
20. Kirby: 100%
21. Dedede: 100%
22. Meta Knight: 100%
23. Fox: 100%
24. Falco: 95%
25. Wolf: 80%
26. Pikachu: 100%
27. Charizard: 100%
28. Lucario: 100%
29. Greninja: 100%
30. Jigglypuff: 90%
31. Mewtwo: 80%
32. Marth: 100%
33. Ike: 75%
34. FE newcomer + return from Melee: 99%
35. Olimar: 100%
36. Ness: 99%
37. Lucas: 75%
38. Little Mac: 100%
39. Retro newcomer: 100%
40. Shulk: 85%
41. Villager: 100%
42. Wii Fit Trainer: 100%
43. Ice Climbers: 99%
44. Mr. Game & Watch: 100%
45. R.O.B.: 90%
46. Captain Falcon: 100%
47. Sonic: 100%
48. Mega Man: 100%
49. Pac-Man (or other Namco character) : 95%
50. Now, a bunch of characters could fill this last spot:
Ghirahim (or other Zelda newcomer) : 65%
Bowser Jr (or other Mario newcomer) : 70%
Ridley: 50%
Isaac: 60%
Snake: 50%
Chorus Kids: 40%
A 2nd Retro Newcomer: 60%
A 2nd DK Newcomer: 55%

For 1-49... do you doubt any of those characters?
I don't see why you'd doubt a DK newcomer, it's unarguably underrepresented, and has had 2 recent games that from what I've heard, sold pretty well. So if you base newcomers off of sales, or even popularity, as both K Rool and Dixie are in the top 15 most requested characters (at least top 15). And being among the few very iconic Nintendo characters left, there's even the possibility of both.
I don't see how you could doubt Palutena. And I don't think I have to explain that.
Do you doubt some of those veterans? If so, which and why? I didn't even include Squirtle, Ivysaur, and Snake in the 1-49, as they are the less likely of the 40 veterans of Brawl + Mewtwo.
Do you doubt a FE newcomer? Even though the series was supposed to get 3 in Brawl and has a full new set of likeable, recent characters in Awakening, which sold better than any other FE game? If the series could potentially deserve 3 in Brawl, and has now become a bigger deal, and now has many viable options, some more popular, some more unique, I have trouble seeing us only getting Marth and Ike. Or just Marth and Chrom. It sounds very unlikely to me. You can compare the total series' sales to Kirby, Starfox, and whichever all you want... but it has 3 characters that are all most likely going to be in. If I didn't know anything about the series except it's sales, I might be assuming it will get only 2 characters. But Marth is very popular, Ike is very popular, Roy is very popular, Chrom is very popular, Lucina is very popular, and Robin is very popular. I'm still not fully convinced we aren't getting 4 from Fire Emblem. I don't think the Fire Emblem series deserves 4 character representation, but I do think that the Fire Emblem series has more than 4 characters that deserve character representation. I don't see newcomers as much as series representatives, as I see them as characters. And that was basically my argument before, summed up into 2 sentences, but of course, most find that unlikely, and [now] I wouldn't give it over a 55% chance if we ever rated that, so I didn't put it in the 1-49, just 1, which I'm 99% sure is happening. And I still believe that if Sakurai finds none of the Awakening characters appealing, he'll just turn back to the fan-favorite Roy and Luigi-fy him for another FE character. I don't think it's very likely, but I find it more likely than just sticking with Mario and Ike.
So, at this point, if you consider Squirtle, Ivysaur, and Snake unlikely, but you agree the rest of the veterans are coming back + Mewtwo, plus the confirmed 6 and the 3 newcomers mentioned so far being 1 from DK, Palutena, and 1 from Fire Emblem... that adds up to 46.
It's at this point that I'd like to remind you that it is unlikely that there is a pre-determined amount of roster-slots. When they decide the roster, they decide the characters. It's also when I'd like to include that if we get less than 50, it will be the lowest increase in Smash history, on the game with the largest development team and development time, I believe. Which doesn't make much sense to me when there is no Subspace Emissary to conflict with how they use their time and resources.
Ok, 46.
Do you doubt Pac-Man at all? If you do, say why. I can't see him not getting in at this point. Too many things pointing to his inclusion, just like Palutena. And if you're going to tell me that a Sakurai quote means less characters, well, he also said Namco characters won't be getting special treatment, and a Namco assist summoner being the S-Flag sure sounds like special treatment to me. He also said Zero Samus was cut, look what happened. And that Animal Crossing characters were too cute for Smash, look what happened. Ok, I'm straying from the point. And while I don't heavily consider much of what I hear Sakurai has said, it was also said I think at E3. And it wouldn't really be possible to know if time constraints were going to be an issue at that point. So, I just disregard it, honestly.
That's 47.
Now I see you said you doubted a Retro newcomer partly because of Little Mac and his alt costume.
But I just can't call him a retro even if I try, because I can't get past the fact that his design is the Punch Out Wii version, with many references to that game, most notably his Final Smash. I mean, I wouldn't call Mario a retro veteran if he gets references to past games in his moveset, or an alt costume of a retro version of him.
And like you said, they may not add a retro character just to add a retro character, and it's usually my view that it's the character that matters, but it seems different with retros, however, I can't fully explain why, so I'll go with something else. I think that, out of the large cast of many, many retro Nintendo characters, Sakurai will find at least just 1 that appeals to him. The fact that the amount of choices is so high makes me doubt he'll completely reject them all. There's a good amount of popular choices, many unique choices, and some that could represent their history very well... I think it's a definite, but since you already said you thought it wasn't, I won't count it.
And I'm going to be including Shulk in the next part of this post:
So to reach 50, there would need to be 3 more characters. Now, if you think that we won't get at least 50, 49 is the highest possibility so do you think that only 2 of these will make it?: Shulk, Isaac, Snake, Ridley, Takamaru, Mii, Mach Rider, Chorus Kids, Lip, Wonder Red, Captain Rainbow, Excitebiker, Ray, Chibi Robo, a 6th Mario character, a 4th DK character, a 6th Zelda character, a 3rd retro newcomer, another WTF character, any other retro, any other character from a new series, any of the remaining assist from Brawl not yet mentioned
This is where things get a bit uncertain. But I feel pretty confident in Shulk, Isaac, Ridley, a Retro newcomer, a 6th Mario character, and a 6th Zelda character.
If you fully believe the Gematsu leak is real, and that the only cuts from Brawl will be Squirtle and Ivysaur, that's 48 characters already. So even if you don't think Snake is returning, is Sakurai really going to skip out on the 3 most requested characters? Mewtwo, K Rool, and Ridley (and Snake not returning) would add up to 50.
Once again, I really think it would be easier to understand your perspective on this if you at least made a list on what you think has the best chance of being the final roster. I know characters have been considered likely in the past and haven't made it, and people have over-estimated the roster size in the past by a lot, but I think there are a # of certain characters and types of characters that need to be added, and altogether would make a number 50 or greater. So since this post was mostly just a repeat of my past posts, could you reply with that?

 

[YoshiandToad]

I'd get a much better perspective on your views towards this if i saw your roster, but this isn't the kind of thread for that, so look at this:


For 1-49... do you doubt any of those characters?
I don't see why you'd doubt a DK newcomer, it's unarguably underrepresented, and has had 2 recent games that from what I've heard, sold pretty well. So if you base newcomers off of sales, or even popularity, as both K Rool and Dixie are in the top 15 most requested characters (at least top 15). And being among the few very iconic Nintendo characters left, there's even the possibility of both.
I don't see how you could doubt Palutena. And I don't think I have to explain that.
Do you doubt some of those veterans? If so, which and why? I didn't even include Squirtle, Ivysaur, and Snake in the 1-49, as they are the less likely of the 40 veterans of Brawl + Mewtwo.
Do you doubt a FE newcomer? Even though the series was supposed to get 3 in Brawl and has a full new set of likeable, recent characters in Awakening, which sold better than any other FE game? If the series could potentially deserve 3 in Brawl, and has now become a bigger deal, and now has many viable options, some more popular, some more unique, I have trouble seeing us only getting Marth and Ike. Or just Marth and Chrom. It sounds very unlikely to me. You can compare the total series' sales to Kirby, Starfox, and whichever all you want... but it has 3 characters that are all most likely going to be in. If I didn't know anything about the series except it's sales, I might be assuming it will get only 2 characters. But Marth is very popular, Ike is very popular, Roy is very popular, Chrom is very popular, Lucina is very popular, and Robin is very popular. I'm still not fully convinced we aren't getting 4 from Fire Emblem. I don't think the Fire Emblem series deserves 4 character representation, but I do think that the Fire Emblem series has more than 4 characters that deserve character representation. I don't see newcomers as much as series representatives, as I see them as characters. And that was basically my argument before, summed up into 2 sentences, but of course, most find that unlikely, and [now] I wouldn't give it over a 55% chance if we ever rated that, so I didn't put it in the 1-49, just 1, which I'm 99% sure is happening. And I still believe that if Sakurai finds none of the Awakening characters appealing, he'll just turn back to the fan-favorite Roy and Luigi-fy him for another FE character. I don't think it's very likely, but I find it more likely than just sticking with Mario and Ike.
So, at this point, if you consider Squirtle, Ivysaur, and Snake unlikely, but you agree the rest of the veterans are coming back + Mewtwo, plus the confirmed 6 and the 3 newcomers mentioned so far being 1 from DK, Palutena, and 1 from Fire Emblem... that adds up to 46.
It's at this point that I'd like to remind you that it is unlikely that there is a pre-determined amount of roster-slots. When they decide the roster, they decide the characters. It's also when I'd like to include that if we get less than 50, it will be the lowest increase in Smash history, on the game with the largest development team and development time, I believe. Which doesn't make much sense to me when there is no Subspace Emissary to conflict with how they use their time and resources.
Ok, 46.
Do you doubt Pac-Man at all? If you do, say why. I can't see him not getting in at this point. Too many things pointing to his inclusion, just like Palutena. And if you're going to tell me that a Sakurai quote means less characters, well, he also said Namco characters won't be getting special treatment, and a Namco assist summoner being the S-Flag sure sounds like special treatment to me. He also said Zero Samus was cut, look what happened. And that Animal Crossing characters were too cute for Smash, look what happened. Ok, I'm straying from the point. And while I don't heavily consider much of what I hear Sakurai has said, it was also said I think at E3. And it wouldn't really be possible to know if time constraints were going to be an issue at that point. So, I just disregard it, honestly.
That's 47.
Now I see you said you doubted a Retro newcomer partly because of Little Mac and his alt costume.
But I just can't call him a retro even if I try, because I can't get past the fact that his design is the Punch Out Wii version, with many references to that game, most notably his Final Smash. I mean, I wouldn't call Mario a retro veteran if he gets references to past games in his moveset, or an alt costume of a retro version of him.
And like you said, they may not add a retro character just to add a retro character, and it's usually my view that it's the character that matters, but it seems different with retros, however, I can't fully explain why, so I'll go with something else. I think that, out of the large cast of many, many retro Nintendo characters, Sakurai will find at least just 1 that appeals to him. The fact that the amount of choices is so high makes me doubt he'll completely reject them all. There's a good amount of popular choices, many unique choices, and some that could represent their history very well... I think it's a definite, but since you already said you thought it wasn't, I won't count it.
And I'm going to be including Shulk in the next part of this post:
So to reach 50, there would need to be 3 more characters. Now, if you think that we won't get at least 50, 49 is the highest possibility so do you think that only 2 of these will make it?: Shulk, Isaac, Snake, Ridley, Takamaru, Mii, Mach Rider, Chorus Kids, Lip, Wonder Red, Captain Rainbow, Excitebiker, Ray, Chibi Robo, a 6th Mario character, a 4th DK character, a 6th Zelda character, a 3rd retro newcomer, another WTF character, any other retro, any other character from a new series, any of the remaining assist from Brawl not yet mentioned
This is where things get a bit uncertain. But I feel pretty confident in Shulk, Isaac, Ridley, a Retro newcomer, a 6th Mario character, and a 6th Zelda character.
If you fully believe the Gematsu leak is real, and that the only cuts from Brawl will be Squirtle and Ivysaur, that's 48 characters already. So even if you don't think Snake is returning, is Sakurai really going to skip out on the 3 most requested characters? Mewtwo, K Rool, and Ridley (and Snake not returning) would add up to 50.
Once again, I really think it would be easier to understand your perspective on this if you at least made a list on what you think has the best chance of being the final roster. I know characters have been considered likely in the past and haven't made it, and people have over-estimated the roster size in the past by a lot, but I think there are a # of certain characters and types of characters that need to be added, and altogether would make a number 50 or greater. So since this post was mostly just a repeat of my past posts, could you reply with that?

Would you mind editing this into easier to read paragraphs? I'm interested in what you're saying but it's really quite difficult without the breaks and gaps.

 

[Smasher 101]

Nominations: Since I predicted yesterday, I think I have x10 now?

No, you only get 10 if your prediction is the closest to the actual score. Your name will appear in the second post on the first page when you win extra nominations.

 

[Kalimdori]

Chrom AT:Chance: 0%
Won't happen, he'll be an alt skin before this happens, and that's almost impossible to
Want: 20%
Don't really want him playable, but he'd be a bland assist to

50+ Roster: Chance: 100%
Will happen, no question in my mind
Want: 100%
Who wouldn't want this?

Predictions: Sceptile: 17.5%
Mach Rider: 6%

 

[FalKoopa]

Chrom AT:Chance: 0%
Won't happen, he'll be an alt skin before this happens, and that's almost impossible to
Want: 20%
Don't really want him playable, but he'd be a bland assist to

50+ Roster: Chance: 100%
Will happen, no question in my mind
Want: 100%
Who wouldn't want this?

Predictions: Sceptile: 17.5%
Mach Rider: 6%

Welcome to the boards! It's an honour when someone chooses this thread to make their first post.

 

[Kalimdori]

Welcome to the boards! It's an honour when someone chooses this thread to make their first post.

I've lurked for ages, finally decided to post on a whim XD

 

[Erimir]

For 1-49... do you doubt any of those characters?

First of all, you didn't give all of them 100%. So you yourself doubt them.

In fact, if I multiply those percentages together (the chance that we get both Mewtwo and Jigglypuff should be 80%*90%, right? Something like that) there should be only about a 21% chance that we get all 49 of those characters according to your own numbers! I don't have to think any of those characters individually is very unlikely, I just have to doubt that we'll get all of them. The chances that at least one or two of them don't make it are a lot higher than 10%.

Yet you put a bunch of numbers down and were like "That seems like about a 90% chance of happening." But it is not, not according to your numbers. I don't even have to substantially disagree with your individual numbers on those 49 in order to say that I still don't think 50+ characters is unlikely.

I happen to be less sure of a DK newcomer, an FE newcomer (he might have intended Roy before, but he isn't remaking Brawl, and other series/characters could be higher priority this time), Shulk, Pac-Man and most of your 50th slot characters. That's less, not necessarily low, before you think I'm saying an FE newcomer is unlikely... I do think it's less than 99% certain. My sales based model thinks there's only a 42% chance of an FE newcomer... I agree it's a lot higher than that, but the fact that its sales are not that high should count for something too and not be thrown out as completely irrelevant.

It's at this point that I'd like to remind you that it is unlikely that there is a pre-determined amount of roster-slots. When they decide the roster, they decide the characters. It's also when I'd like to include that if we get less than 50, it will be the lowest increase in Smash history, on the game with the largest development team and development time, I believe.

I never thought there was a pre-determined roster size. But if Sakurai says that he doesn't just want to do the same thing and just add characters, yada yada, it suggests to me that we should be getting the smallest increase. Or at best, the same amount of increase as before. The same increase as before would put us at 52 or 53 slots... Him saying that and then giving us the biggest increase ever seems unlikely to me, so I think of that as being a fairly hard limit. Maybe he will surprise me, it's possible! I would probably welcome the surprise. But I doubt it will happen (hence why it would be a surprise).

They do have some roster size limitations. I really don't think he excluded Diddy Kong, Dedede, Wario and such from Melee because he didn't think they were worthy. He's not going to look over your list and decide they're all worthy and make a 60 character roster. He might not have a fixed size that he decided at the beginning, but I'm sure that he has some limits, like maybe he would try to keep it under 50 unless he really can't decide who to pass over to make that happen, or they get ahead of schedule.

Do you doubt Pac-Man at all? If you do, say why. I can't see him not getting in at this point. Too many things pointing to his inclusion,

I give Pac-Man a high probability, just not as high as you.

Now I see you said you doubted a Retro newcomer partly because of Little Mac and his alt costume.

That wasn't my main point though. My point was that people are assuming we have to have retros, probably two of them, on the basis of only two games. From his statements, we know Sakurai likes to include them, and he might include one or even two. But I don't think he will include a retro for the sake of including a retro.

Let's say, that in his view Lip was the best retro option at this point. But he just doesn't like Lip that much. In that case, I think we would get no retro newcomers. He would not include her out of some obligation to have a retro newcomer. Retros get a boost from being retro (they have more chance than more recent one-off characters... like Isa Jo, for example) but they still have to get in on their own merits.

The retros he's included before are either very important to Nintendo history (Mr. G&W, ROB), had high fan demand (Pit), had moveset uniqueness (Ice Climbers, Mr. G&W) or he wanted to revive their series (Pit). I think the remaining retros have fewer points in their favor than the retros he's already included.

so do you think that only 2 of these will make it?: Shulk, Isaac, Snake, Ridley, Takamaru, Mii, Mach Rider, Chorus Kids, Lip, Wonder Red, Captain Rainbow, Excitebiker, Ray, Chibi Robo, a 6th Mario character, a 4th DK character, a 6th Zelda character, a 3rd retro newcomer, another WTF character, any other retro, any other character from a new series, any of the remaining assist from Brawl not yet mentioned

Well, we could get more than two of those without getting 50 characters, for one. For another, I rate a lot of these much much lower than you do. Like Wonder Red I think is like 0.01%. I don't think he is going to happen, at all.

I find Mach Rider, Lip, Wonder Red, Captain Rainbow, Excitebiker and a 3rd retro all extremely unlikely. Ray and Chibi-Robo I think are very unlikely. A 6th Mario character, a 4th DK character and a 6th Zelda character I find quite unlikely. The remaining (Isaac, Snake, Ridley, Takamaru, Mii) have decent to good chances, but I also think it's very possible that we will get more cuts than you think, and that we won't get all the other newcomers you mentioned.

If you fully believe the Gematsu leak is real, and that the only cuts from Brawl will be Squirtle and Ivysaur, that's 48 characters already.

I don't fully believe the leak, and I don't think we'll necessarily only lose Squirtle, Ivysaur and maybe Snake. You yourself don't believe that, otherwise you wouldn't have given Lucas a 75% chance rather than a 100% chance. I also think that the Gematsu leak hurts the chances of characters outside of it.

So even if you don't think Snake is returning, is Sakurai really going to skip out on the 3 most requested characters? Mewtwo, K Rool, and Ridley (and Snake not returning) would add up to 50.

He skipped out on them before. He skipped out on them and Mega Man and earlier he skipped out on Diddy Kong, Wario, Dedede and Meta Knight. Even if we include the Forbidden 7 in consideration, he would've skipped out on K Rool and Ridley even if Brawl had had a 46 character roster.

He is not slavishly following the fans' wishes.

Once again, I really think it would be easier to understand your perspective on this if you at least made a list on what you think has the best chance of being the final roster.

Make most of the adjustments I've said and the chances will work out roughly like I said.

Even if I'm being too pessimistic, there's a lot of room between my rating of 22% and your rating of 90%. I think we're most likely to get something like 47 or 48 characters. That could be 11-15 newcomers with 3-5 cuts. That seems realistic to me. 49 is also plausible, and hey, 22% is not nothing, so 50+ is also plausible to me. Maybe it should be a little higher... Maybe like 30%?

 

[andimidna]

^I don't have a chance to go through everything you said at the moment (I might later) but there's one thing that stood out to me.
Wouldn't that percentage you calculated on my ratings be the chance I think there will be 50 character roster, but it could only possibly include those (around 55 or 60) characters? I think that score would imply that I think every other videogames character has a 0% chance, and that's not true. There are still many other characters I'd rank from 30 to 10%. And dozens of characters I'd rank at just 1 or 5 %
Which would make a big difference in that score, well, I'm pretty sure it was. I don't think math is the best way to go for this concept, to be accurate, wouldn't every possible characters chance need to be added? Yea, that's a lot. I don't give many 0s.

 

[FinalSynthesis]

Hm
Chrom AT: 3%
Either he's in or he's out. No reason to make him an assist trophy. Plus he is one of the most bland possible options for an assist trophy, with no real outstanding traits or features to make it entertaining. Copy/Paste everything you guys have already said.
Want: 0%. It's pointless.

50+ Roster: 70%
Really nothing left for me to add at this point. Feel there may be even more expansion than expected due to 3rd parties possibly adding up on top of 1st parties.

Want: 100%
I want to get my hands on as many people as possible, as long as its balanced (which I'm sure it will, no matter the size of the roster.) If Sakurai wanted to make a 2,000 character roster that was still balanced, I would be all for it.

You guys pretty much summed this up pretty well.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Hm
Chrom AT: 3%
Either he's in or he's out. No reason to make him an assist trophy. Plus he is one of the most bland possible options for an assist trophy, with no real outstanding traits or features to make it entertaining. Copy/Paste everything you guys have already said.
Want: 0%. It's pointless.

50+ Roster: 70%
Really nothing left for me to add at this point. Feel there may be even more expansion than expected due to 3rd parties possibly adding up on top of 1st parties.

Want: 100%
I want to get my hands on as many people as possible, as long as its balanced (which I'm sure it will, no matter the size of the roster.) If Sakurai wanted to make a 2,000 character roster that was still balanced, I would be all for it.

You guys pretty much summed this up pretty well.

welcome to the boards mate,
its pretty great to see some people make their first appearance on this thread here

 

[chronomantic]

Want: 100%. Absolutely not. I want as few characters as possible to get the game sooner.

Pffffft! Who doesn't want over 50 characters?!

Maybe you already know this but the roster is decided and locked way ahead of the release (I think it was 2006 for Brawl). An exception for that game was Sonic. Who knows if they did last minute additions to this one, probably not though.

 

[Erimir]

^I don't have a chance to go through everything you said at the moment (I might later) but there's one thing that stood out to me.
Wouldn't that percentage you calculated on my ratings be the chance I think there will be 50 character roster, but it could only possibly include those (around 55 or 60) characters? I think that score would imply that I think every other videogames character has a 0% chance, and that's not true. There are still many other characters I'd rank from 30 to 10%. And dozens of characters I'd rank at just 1 or 5 %
Which would make a big difference in that score, well, I'm pretty sure it was. I don't think math is the best way to go for this concept, to be accurate, wouldn't every possible characters chance need to be added? Yea, that's a lot. I don't give many 0s.

First of all, I suspect that you didn't realize how low the chances were for what I calculated though.

Secondly, yes, of course all the other characters should be factored in. Of course I think you should give a lot more scores in the <2% range. In fact, all or almost all of the characters not on your list I would already give <10% scores, many of them I would give in the 1% range, and quite a few I would give basically 0% to.

Last time every character that got in had over a 24% chance, with the exception of Pokemon Trainer, which the GameFAQs RTC did not rate. Probably if they had rated that exact idea, it would've done decently. But even if we count them as giving a 1% rating to them or whatever (Charmander got a 4.4% rating, for comparison, so I suspect they would've rated PT similarly), they had almost 300 characters they rated as 1%-20% chance, and just one (or three-in-one) of them made it in. Of the about 350 characters they rated between 50% and 1%, just two (ROB and Lucas) made it in. I fully expect that the vast majority of the characters rated similarly this time around will not make it in.

People are really bad at rating things that don't have much chance of happening. That's why so many people buy lotto tickets. Yes, a character with a low rating will probably make it in. But the thing is this: probably only one or two of the low rated characters will make it in! Someone has to win the lotto. The wrong lesson to take from that is "Greninja/PT/ROB made it in, so any random character has a >5% chance of making it in!" The fact that someone always wins the lotto doesn't make it more likely than any particular person will.

I have to wonder what you think the chances are of a 60+ character roster. Because I see that as basically 0%. You're setting yourself up to find the final roster very disappointing if you ask me. I can only imagine what the GameFAQs RTC crew thought of the 39 character Brawl roster when they had rated over 200 characters as having over 10% chance, suggesting a roster at least 70+ (if I'm nice and pretend that ratings of less than 10% don't really count).

Sakurai has his own weird methodology for picking characters. I can say that it correlates with series popularity/sales. We can take his statements about it (like that GameFreak and IS have influence on Pokemon and FE reps). But he has shown in the last two games (and even with some of the choices this time) that he's going to make decisions that a lot of the fans don't understand. He's going to leave out plenty of characters that fans think are great choices, deserving choices. He has every time.

 

[Mega Bidoof]

Maybe you already know this but the roster is decided and locked way ahead of the release (I think it was 2006 for Brawl). An exception for that game was Sonic. Who knows if they did last minute additions to this one, probably not though.

Greninja.
That's all you need to see to know the roster was not locked a long time ago.

 

[Erimir]

Greninja.
That's all you need to see to know the roster was not locked a long time ago.

Sakurai listens to GameFreak a lot about which Pokemon to include. Greninja has existed since quite a while before the Pokemon X&Y release (since development for that went on a while), I assume, and they wanted to promote him. I find it quite plausible that the roster was finalized in spring 2013 and that Greninja was included.

 

[andimidna]

It's also possible that they set away a spot just for whoever ended up being the most popular Pokemon in X/Y
(which may be why we got one even though they were less prominent than past popular Pokemon like Lucario and Zoroark)
(and also why Sal only knew about the X/Y Pokemon, it was leaked to him when it wasn't chosen yet )
But I wouldn't really call that "finalized"

 

[Groose]

I can't believe I didn't think of him! Saki's assist could boost his chances immensily, but the Smash Bros icon for the assist may deconfirm him! He's definitely worth the rate.

I think I'm definitely in the minority here, but I doubt having the Smash Icon as a logo in the Direct means anything at all. Think of it this way: would Sakurai really have shown a Sin and Punishment logo there if Isa were indeed in the game? He didn't reveal the Punch-Out logo on the Boxing Ring, after all.

I'm allowed to be biased in my want scores, after all.

Want scores are all about bias! Pile it on! The main reason they're there is so people can express their biases there while keeping their other score as bias-free as possible.

Also I considered going for Savvy Stylist (hate that name)... It may not be for you Groose, but Girl's Mode is a hugely popular (and well made/surprisingly fun) franchise.

Not that I'm going to help nominate or support him or her, but how can Style Savvy be shovelware, Groose? It is actually a first party franchise, and getting as much as an Assist Trophy isn't totally absurd.

...just joking! I just wanted to see who actually would read that. I've fixed it this time.

]
Venusaur x5 ... Well, if Sakurai ISN'T going to cut Ivysaur, how much sense does it make for him to be an out of place MID EVOLUTION? Think about it, it actually kind of makes sense. Not saying that it has a huge chance of happening, but it's there.

I agree with this reasoning. I'm not going to spend my nominations on Venasaur just yet, but I will eventually do so.

You know people, one upside of being pessimistic about the number of characters is if we do get >50 characters, you'll just be very pleasantly surprised!

I agree entirely. High expectations breed disappointment; low expectations breed joy.

What AP Test Groose? Chem or Environmental? I'm taking Environmental.

Yup, Environmental. I think it went over pretty well. How'd you handle things?

Hm
Chrom AT: 3%
Either he's in or he's out. No reason to make him an assist trophy. Plus he is one of the most bland possible options for an assist trophy, with no real outstanding traits or features to make it entertaining. Copy/Paste everything you guys have already said.
Want: 0%. It's pointless.

50+ Roster: 70%
Really nothing left for me to add at this point. Feel there may be even more expansion than expected due to 3rd parties possibly adding up on top of 1st parties.

Want: 100%

I want to get my hands on as many people as possible, as long as its balanced (which I'm sure it will, no matter the size of the roster.) If Sakurai wanted to make a 2,000 character roster that was still balanced, I would be all for it.

You guys pretty much summed this up pretty well.

Welcome to Smashboards and to this game! If you need anything, give me a holler!

Welcome to the boards! It's an honour when someone chooses this thread to make their first post.

You stole my line! Bad moderator!

Chrom AT: 25%
I give Chrom a 50% shot at playability; he makes a really strong case, and I could see it going either way. Likewise, I could see him getting an AT go either way if he is deconfirmed.

Chrom AT Want: 100%
Chrom's going to be in this game as a playable character, I'll like his trailer, and then I'll be hailed as a band-wagoner and a hypocrite. However, as of right now, I can honestly say I have no desire to see Chrom become playable, and this is a good scenario in my eyes.

50 Character Roster: 20%
Sorry, no time to explain the following:
<40 Characters: 0% chance
41-43 Characters: 10% chance
44-46 Characters: 40% chance
47-49 Characters: 30% chance
50+ Characters: 20% chance

50 Character Roster: 100%
I run Rate Their Chances. I may obsess over potential Smash Newcomers more than any other person in the world. How would I not be pleased by a large roster?

Professor Layton x5
I need to drop his chance and boost his want.

Day Over

Return of Groose

​

 

[Groose]

Chrom Assist Trophy
9.16% chance
22.07% want
People here (for the most part) don't want Chrom playable, but they also don't want to see him as an Assist Trophy. That's rather odd, huh? What isn't odd is the low chance score here; playable Chrom is considered very likely so Assist Trophy Chrom cannot be.

Fifty or More Character Roster
53.02% chance
92.19% want
The interesting thing to me here certainly isn't the want; the fact that at least four people came right out and said "the more the merrier" does' surprise me. Ladies and gentlemen, we have just stated that we think this game will have at last fifty characters. At the very least, that suggests we'll have five or more newcomers yet to be revealed; does that get you hyped up?

Scep! Sceptile! Sceptile! Men and women of the ratings, it is time that we rate one of my personal favorite Pokemon: Sceptile. Although no one considered him for Smash until a few short weeks ago, many now believe he has a very solid chance. Will this warrior get to line up between Charizard and Greninja, or will we never see those Hoenn remakes? In addition, we gotta go fast! The Mach Rider is back, and this time Lip is somewhat out of the way; will (s)he seize the opportunity? Please rate Sceptile and Mach Rider in today's contest. Tomorrow we'll be revisiting the Chibi Robo and Rhythm Heaven franchises. Please predict how Chibi Robo and Marshal will do in the next round.

 

[False Sense]

Want scores are all about bias! Pile it on! The main reason they're there is so people can express their biases there while keeping their other score as bias-free as possible.

Hmm... Perhaps I should change my want score to 100% if I still have time... After all, with Chrom out of the way, my second most wanted character's chances increase significantly, and it disproves that annoying leak that everyone takes for granted. Two birds with one stone.

 

[Glaciacott]

Sceptile
Chance - 10%
I may be overestimating the chances of Sceptile, but I do think that there is a strong chance of another pokemon rearing its surprising head, and with the fall of Pokemon Trainer my guess would be a grass starter.
Out of all of them, Sceptile makes the most sense given:
- popularity and demand of Generation III remakes
- popularity of Gen III starters vs. that of other non-Gen 1/6 starters
- Snivy and Chespin are pokeball pokemon based on the Greninja trailer
- Venusaur would be a bit surprising given its shape. Same goes for Torterra. Sceptile has the easiest figure to work with
- Ivy would be a weird midvolution and feel out of place without Squirtle

Want - 95%
I've always had a pokemon newcomer in my top ten. It was Blaziken, but getting Greninja was a million times better and I was extremely happy. However, when removing him from my top ten I realized there is another pokemon that now has a bigger chance than before that I would love perhaps more than these two, and that's Sceptile. In gen III I used all starters, much like gen 6, but sceptile was easily the one I kept on using in future teams over and over and over again. For it to be playable would be a dream come true, more so in just how unlikely I originally thought it was.
The only thing that keeps this from being 100% is the fact I might be a bit bothered by the fact that other characters might lose a roster spot to two new pokemon plus a potential Mewtwo return.

Mach Rider
Chance - 6%
All the stuff that would fit his character best has been done by Captain Falcon. Also, overall his game is not that interesting or enjoyable, and Sakurai expressed issues in the past working with a motorcycle character when the excite biker was considered as a retro rep for Melee.

Want - 5%
Retro is cool, but this game is pretty lackluster.

Predictions
Chibi Robo - 12%
Unsure
Marshal - 16%
Possible actual character if the leak is true and he was confused with the Chorus Kids.

Nominations
x10 Masked Dedede Alt. Costume

 

[andimidna]

Huh. Low want for both Chrom playable and an assist?
Looks like you guys just want him as far away from the game as possible...

I kind of want to nominate "Chrom only as a trophy or less" just to see what the want score turns out to be

It's not letting me edit my noms on my ratings post, so I'll put them here.

x2 Savvy Stylist
x1 Birdo Assist Trophy
x1 6 Mario characters
x1 Vaati

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Sceptile Likelihood: 7.5%
Want: 45%

Mach Rider Likelihood: 8%
Want: 50%

Chibi Robo: 16.45%
Marshal: 12.68%

Mario Kart 8 Stage x5

 

[Smasher 101]

The extra nominations post has been updated.

Sceptile's chances: 5% - I definitely think that he's the most likely choice for a grass type; I just don't see them really caring about that. Also, Mewtwo and Jigglypuff exist.
Want: 0% - I don't really want another Pokemon newcomer at this point.

Mach Rider's chances: 12% - Still find him to be the second most likely retro, just a little more unsure about us getting one.
Want: 85% - My favorite choice for a retro.

Chibi-Robo prediction: 16.92%
Marshall prediction: 26.27%

Vaati x5. Wow we're going through the characters I wanted to rate fast.

 

[andimidna]

Sceptile: 6%
Higher than Ivysaur. But still, not high.
I say this because:
-If Ivysaur is added, it will look awkward to not have Squirtle too, because it would be 2 of the 3 starters... that just doesn't sit right with me, especially with Charizard being emphasized as a stand-alone character. I can't see them all returning too. Why confirm ZSS, Sheik, and Charizard and save the lesser of the bunch for later? And also... 2 water types? Meh. I just can't see it. I think that if he were to pass on the grass playstyle, he'd want to treat the character that gets the style as a newcomer.
-The water-grass-fire triangle came with Pokemon Trainer, and that's cut, so I don't see that being a priority again. I mean, it wasn't on purpose, but Charizard, Greninja, and Lucario create a triangle of their own. So... that's that I guess.
I just don't think we're getting another Pokemon newcomer. 7 seems like a lot, but it's definitely not impossible, and Sceptile is probably the current frontrunner of the Pokemon newcomer options. I could see them wanting a grass type from Gen 5 instead, though...
Ehh... give us the 6.
Want: 80%
But why would I be against 7 Pokemon characters? I really wouldn't be. And it would technically be only 1 more than Brawl. With both the water and grass types replaced and Mewtwo added back. Even if Sceptile was confirmed, I wouldn't be too scared about Mewtwo and Jigglypuff. They seem too necessary at this point. An original 12 and the most requested character, yeah, I don't care what Sakurai throws our way, they're in! And an increase in Pokemon characters does make some sense. I'm not expecting him, and I prefer some others, but this guy is great.

The rest will come later

 

[UnicornDemon]

Sceptile
Chance: 18%
Grass/Fire/Water trio is integral to the Pokemon series as it represents the first Pokemon people select from in every game. Sceptile would make for the best fighter of all the grass types. There's also the possibility of Gen III remakes around the corner. Of course, the ranking is still low due to the Pokemon never really getting any promotion or becoming incredibly popular. Still, Greninja got in without being promoted much so there's a chance.

Want: 100%
Sceptile has consistently been one of my top five favorite Pokemon of all time and I would absolutely LOVE for him to become playable. I skipped Gen II. of Pokemon and so Gen. III represented my return to the series, and my starter of choice was none other than the Forest Pokemon himself. He would make an incredibly unique addition with a variety of grass-type moves such as leech seed, stun spore, sleep powder, giga drain, energy ball, leaf blade, etc. Not to mention that large characteristic tail which could be used to slam opponents- he'd be like a mix between agile and heavy-weight with his great speed being bogged down by that powerful tail. Oh man, I want him so bad it hurts.

Also, grass has always been my favorite Pokemon type, so I'd pretty upset if we got a fire and water starter but no grass starter. Ivysaur would be cool too, though.

Mach Rider
Chance: 5%, I don't see it happening
Want: 0%, I'll pass

Nomz
Lanky Kong x10

Predictions
Marshal: 9.3%
Chibi-Robo: 14.3%

 

[Bravetriforcer]

Sceptile:

Chance: 5%
Want: 20%

As much I was liked the idea of Pokemon Trainer in Brawl, and how Ivysaur is the only quadraped in Smash, I feel like Sceptile would be a more apprpriate grass starter fighter (especially since it's something from Gen 3 HOLY ****). Though I find him highly unlikely, as I'm not ocunting Ivysaur and Squirtle out just yet.

Mach Rider:

Chance: 25%
Want: 5%

It's a retro rep? Has a chance cause of that, but I have no idea who this is.

 

[VictoriaYr]

Oh boy this looks like fun! Let's see...

Sceptile
Chance: 1%
(I feel that if we should get a maximum number of Pokemon, it ought to be six. And if that is the case, I see Mewtwo and Puff being far more likely. On top of that Sceptile is not exactly an outstanding representative... the only thing going for him is that he is a grass type, and is bipedal. Also I feel being a lizard gecko type creature, Sceptile is not exactly that much different from Greninja.)
Want: 0%
(I would rather see so many other Pokemon than Sceptile. I do not dislike him, but in terms of roster space, realistically speaking I think it is best to give it to Puff and Mewtwo if any other Pokes be considered).

Mach Rider
Chance: 1%
(Anything is possible...)
Want: 0%
(I would rather have a character I am familiar with)

 

[Kalimdori]

Sceptile Chance: 10%
The Fire/Grass/Water trio is the first choice a Pokemon player ever has to make, and as such, is one of the most iconic parts of the series. Every new generation brings up a brand new debate of who the best starter is, and it is definitely an important enough aspect of Pokemon to be fully represented in Smash Bros. And of all the Grass Pokemon, Sceptile has the best chances by far. A Gen 3 remake is very likely to be on the horizon, and he would advertise that quite nicely. Blaziken could also arguably do this, but he's basically the Pokemon form of Captain Falcon. Sceptile has the potential for a unique moveset and an overall cool character.

All that said, his chances are slim at best. We already have Jigglypuff and Mewtwo, the latter of which I am sure will be back, while the other, while I wish she wouldn't, is very likely to return as well. I don't have anything against 7 Pokemon representatives (We had 6 in Brawl after all) but it isn't very likely to happen. So 10% chance, his chances rely on either Jigglypuff being cut or 7 Pokemon representatives being added. (Or if Squirtle and Ivysaur return. But I seriously doubt they will)

Want: 100%
My first Pokemon game was Pokemon Emerald. My first starter was Treecko. Sceptile was my first ever starter Pokemon, and competes with Lucario as my favorite Pokemon of all time, he beat a Darkrai in the anime! That's really f***ing cool! I would be ecstatic if he got in, I would have all my favorite Pokemon playable in Smash Bros! But it probably won't happen...

Mach Rider Chance: 15%
Ice Climbers, Pit, Game and Watch, ROB, relevancy isn't really an issue with retro characters. Mach Rider has been in Smash Bros in the form of music and stickers, I think it's perfectly possible for him to be in the game. The reason he's only 15% is simply because I think there are many more likely retro characters then him.

Want: 5%
Never played Mach Rider, he looks kinda cool, but... meh. No real desire to have him in the game

Chibi Robo: 25% I could see it happening, and I think he would be a fun character, although if he is in the game I think he's more likely to be an assist trophy.
Rhythm Heaven Series: 70%, Simply because I feel like alot of people believe the leak, at least to some degree.

 

[chronomantic]

Sceptile
Chance: 30% - I don't think the arbitrary idea of the need of having a starter Pokemon or a grass type to fill the spot stands (or at least we don't have a quote or source to outright support it). But then again it may apply. I wouldn't like the idea of having him just to fill a grass type spot though.
Want: 0% - indifferent towards this guy.

Mach Rider
Chance: 10% - Sakurai once had problems implementing the idea of Excitebike. I know Mach Rider has a gun but his bike is the most iconic thing he has. I don't know how would he work without it.
Want: 0% - there are surely more interesting retros to include than this guy.

 

[andimidna]

Nominations List

x21 Vaati Rerate

x5 Vaati (Legend of Zelda)

Psssttt.... Grooose....
You may want to fix this

 

[Miffa]

Sceptitle:
Want: 50% Indifferent
Chance: 20% If more Pokemon get in its Jiggs then Mewtwo
Mach Rider
Want: 50% Indifferent
Chance: 10% Can not see it.

 

[colder_than_ice]

The popularity chart has been updated and "50+ newcomers" has gotten the highest want rating in this games history.

Sceptile
Chance: 1% - The only reason why people are even considering this is because of the belief that we need a grass type to complete the triangle, I think this would be a very poor reason to add a new character to this game. Charizard was chosen because he's arguably the most popular and iconic starter and Greninja I think was chosen because he represented the most recent generation and had a lot of potential to be popular and have a unique moveset, I don't think either of them were picked with a type triangle in mind. Sceptile has some popularity going for it but is still nowhere near as popular as Jigglypuff and Mewtwo, even in it's own generation it is completely overshadowed by it's much more popular fellow starter Blaziken who actually got a Mega Evolution.
Want: 27% - I might warm up to it eventually.

Mach Rider
Chance: 16% - The number of possible retro characters is getting smaller, there's a small window of opportunity for this guy.
Want: 0% - To generic.

Chibi-Robo prediction: 19%
Marshal prediction: 19%

Nominations: Captain Toad x5