KurashiDragon
Smash Journeyman
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Note to self; pay more attention to the OP. -_- I'll edit that then.
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Rate Their Chances: GAME OVER! Join the RTC Social Group Today!
- Thread starter Groose
- Start date
- Status
Cheezey Bites
Slime Knight
Chrom in a box: 15%
I put Chrom's playability at 82% (if you include the Ike Climbers style father x daughter team), so the vast majority of the rest goes to AT territory.
Want: 0%
As much as I don't care for his playability, it would be a bit insulting to make him an AT after all this... FE should have more ATs though, given how many great supporting characters are in that series...
Over 50s life insurance: 85%
P:M has 41, but two of those Pokémon, Roy and Snake are probably not going to make it... Roy will be out for another FE newcomer, Greninja ninja'd Squirtle's spot, and Snake has already been usurped for Megaman. So we're at 40.
WFT, Rosaluma, Little Mac and Villager makes 44.
Palutena and Pac-Man are nearly assured... so 46 at about 50% chance because of vet cutting... but Vets would only be cut for time reasons, and because they're adding more new characters.
When you think that way we just need 4 less expected newcomer, and we have E3, Developer Direct and the hidden characters for the game's release... I think it's highly highly likely we'll tip over 50, reasonably unlikely we'll cross 55, and nigh on impossible we'll go over 60... I hedge my bets at 54 personally.
Want: 50%
This isn't something to want or not, it depends on the characters and how well the game is made and balanced; if making more characters damages the balance and uniqueness of each character, then it shouldn't happen, if it doesn't then great!
Sceptile: 13.3%
Popular Grass type, but he doesn't even have a Mega, yet!
Mach Rider: 9.7%
Just plain competition, especially after this 50+ day people will be more aware of it.
Ryu Hayabusa*4
(Tecmo Koei and Nintendo are pretty cosy at the moment after-all)
Spyro*1
(At this point he's 1 away from being rated tomorrow... it will probably change throughout the day, but still.)
Also I considered going for Savvy Stylist (hate that name)... It may not be for you Groose, but Girl's Mode is a hugely popular (and well made/surprisingly fun) franchise.
I put Chrom's playability at 82% (if you include the Ike Climbers style father x daughter team), so the vast majority of the rest goes to AT territory.
Want: 0%
As much as I don't care for his playability, it would be a bit insulting to make him an AT after all this... FE should have more ATs though, given how many great supporting characters are in that series...
Over 50s life insurance: 85%
P:M has 41, but two of those Pokémon, Roy and Snake are probably not going to make it... Roy will be out for another FE newcomer, Greninja ninja'd Squirtle's spot, and Snake has already been usurped for Megaman. So we're at 40.
WFT, Rosaluma, Little Mac and Villager makes 44.
Palutena and Pac-Man are nearly assured... so 46 at about 50% chance because of vet cutting... but Vets would only be cut for time reasons, and because they're adding more new characters.
When you think that way we just need 4 less expected newcomer, and we have E3, Developer Direct and the hidden characters for the game's release... I think it's highly highly likely we'll tip over 50, reasonably unlikely we'll cross 55, and nigh on impossible we'll go over 60... I hedge my bets at 54 personally.
Want: 50%
This isn't something to want or not, it depends on the characters and how well the game is made and balanced; if making more characters damages the balance and uniqueness of each character, then it shouldn't happen, if it doesn't then great!
Sceptile: 13.3%
Popular Grass type, but he doesn't even have a Mega, yet!
Mach Rider: 9.7%
Just plain competition, especially after this 50+ day people will be more aware of it.
Ryu Hayabusa*4
(Tecmo Koei and Nintendo are pretty cosy at the moment after-all)
Spyro*1
(At this point he's 1 away from being rated tomorrow... it will probably change throughout the day, but still.)
Also I considered going for Savvy Stylist (hate that name)... It may not be for you Groose, but Girl's Mode is a hugely popular (and well made/surprisingly fun) franchise.
Last edited:
andimidna
Smash Master
I'm trying to understand why people are saying Mach Rider is going to drop significantly...
A lot of his competition has been hurt.
- Villager's Balloon Recovery from Balloon Fight
- Greninja's shuriken, swords, teleportation, and overall weight and style's similarity to Takamaru's potential playstyle
- Lip's Stick returning as an item
Here's what I thought/think of the 4:
(Just for fun, I wanted to add in other retros too)
[collapse=Pre E3 2013]
Takamaru: 55% / Want: 55%
Balloon Fighter: 45% / Want: 55%
Lip: 30% / Want: 30%
Mach Rider: 25% / Want: 10%
Sheriff: 7% / Want: 5%
Captain Rainbow: 5% / Want: 5%
Hikari & Donbe: 4% / Want: 10%
Wild Gunman: 3% / Want: 5%
Muddy Mole: 2% / Want: 0%
Duck Hunt Dog: 1% / Want: 0%
Daitoryo: 0% / Want: 0%
[/collapse]
[collapse=Post E3 2013]
Takamaru: 65% / Want: 60%
Lip: 35% / Want: 30%
Mach Rider: 30% / Want: 10%
Sheriff: 8% / Want: 10%
Captain Rainbow: 6% / Want: 5%
Hikari & Donbe: 5% / Want: 10%
Muddy Mole: 4% / Want: 5%
Wild Gunman: 3% / Want: 5%
Duck Hunt Dog: 1% / Want: 0%
Daitoryo: 0% / Want: 0%
Balloon Fighter: 0% / Want: 0%
[/collapse]
[collapse=Pre Smash Direct]
Takamaru: 70% / Want: 90%
Lip: 40% / Want: 100%
Mach Rider: 30% / Want: 15%
Captain Rainbow: 30% / Want: 60%
Sheriff: 25% / Want: 60%
Daitoryo: 15% / Want: 70%
Muddy Mole: 11% / Want: 30%
Hikari & Donbe: 10% / Want: 90%
Duck Hunt Dog: 9% / Want: 30%
Balloon Fighter: 5% / Want: 0%
Wild Gunman: 4% / Want: 10%
[/collapse]
[collapse= Now]
Mach Rider: 60% / Want: 80%
Takamaru: 45% / Want: 60%
Captain Rainbow: 30% / Want: 70%
Daitoryo: 25% / Want: 70%
Muddy Mole: 22% / Want: 20%
Lip: 20% / Want: 100%
Sheriff: 15% / Want: 60%
Wild Gunman: 12% / Want: 20%
Balloon Fighter: 10% / Want: 10%
Duck Hunt Dog: 9% / Want: 30%
Hikari & Donbe: 5% / Want: 95%
[/collapse]
Started out neutral to retros, scores went down on both sides when becoming a semi-clone arose as a possibility.
Yea, I'm starting to think Mach Rider is the frontrunner of the retros.
He's the character that if Sakurai were to translate into a fighter, would show off his creativity and uniqueness more than any other choice I can think of.
Edit: I just realized I put Captain Rainbow in a retro list... huh, not sure why. Well... I'm not taking him off
A lot of his competition has been hurt.
- Villager's Balloon Recovery from Balloon Fight
- Greninja's shuriken, swords, teleportation, and overall weight and style's similarity to Takamaru's potential playstyle
- Lip's Stick returning as an item
Here's what I thought/think of the 4:
(Just for fun, I wanted to add in other retros too)
[collapse=Pre E3 2013]
Takamaru: 55% / Want: 55%
Balloon Fighter: 45% / Want: 55%
Lip: 30% / Want: 30%
Mach Rider: 25% / Want: 10%
Sheriff: 7% / Want: 5%
Captain Rainbow: 5% / Want: 5%
Hikari & Donbe: 4% / Want: 10%
Wild Gunman: 3% / Want: 5%
Muddy Mole: 2% / Want: 0%
Duck Hunt Dog: 1% / Want: 0%
Daitoryo: 0% / Want: 0%
[/collapse]
[collapse=Post E3 2013]
Takamaru: 65% / Want: 60%
Lip: 35% / Want: 30%
Mach Rider: 30% / Want: 10%
Sheriff: 8% / Want: 10%
Captain Rainbow: 6% / Want: 5%
Hikari & Donbe: 5% / Want: 10%
Muddy Mole: 4% / Want: 5%
Wild Gunman: 3% / Want: 5%
Duck Hunt Dog: 1% / Want: 0%
Daitoryo: 0% / Want: 0%
Balloon Fighter: 0% / Want: 0%
[/collapse]
[collapse=Pre Smash Direct]
Takamaru: 70% / Want: 90%
Lip: 40% / Want: 100%
Mach Rider: 30% / Want: 15%
Captain Rainbow: 30% / Want: 60%
Sheriff: 25% / Want: 60%
Daitoryo: 15% / Want: 70%
Muddy Mole: 11% / Want: 30%
Hikari & Donbe: 10% / Want: 90%
Duck Hunt Dog: 9% / Want: 30%
Balloon Fighter: 5% / Want: 0%
Wild Gunman: 4% / Want: 10%
[/collapse]
[collapse= Now]
Mach Rider: 60% / Want: 80%
Takamaru: 45% / Want: 60%
Captain Rainbow: 30% / Want: 70%
Daitoryo: 25% / Want: 70%
Muddy Mole: 22% / Want: 20%
Lip: 20% / Want: 100%
Sheriff: 15% / Want: 60%
Wild Gunman: 12% / Want: 20%
Balloon Fighter: 10% / Want: 10%
Duck Hunt Dog: 9% / Want: 30%
Hikari & Donbe: 5% / Want: 95%
[/collapse]
Started out neutral to retros, scores went down on both sides when becoming a semi-clone arose as a possibility.
Yea, I'm starting to think Mach Rider is the frontrunner of the retros.
He's the character that if Sakurai were to translate into a fighter, would show off his creativity and uniqueness more than any other choice I can think of.
Edit: I just realized I put Captain Rainbow in a retro list... huh, not sure why. Well... I'm not taking him off
Last edited:
- Joined
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Chrom AT: 1%
He's the face of the game that revived the series, meaning he's certainly important. Characters like him are usually not relegated to Assist Trophies. Not to mention he doesn't have any notable abilities that lend him to being an AT.
Want: 0%
Eh. A Chrom AT sounds even more boring than him as a playable character.
Over9000 50 characters: 70%
Seems pretty likely to me. It would mean a roster increase of at least 12 from Brawl, and if we remove Squirtle and Ivysaur, we'll need a total of 14 newcomers. Doesn't really sound impossible to me.
Want: 100%
As Eggman once said, the more the merrier.
He's the face of the game that revived the series, meaning he's certainly important. Characters like him are usually not relegated to Assist Trophies. Not to mention he doesn't have any notable abilities that lend him to being an AT.
Want: 0%
Eh. A Chrom AT sounds even more boring than him as a playable character.
Over
Seems pretty likely to me. It would mean a roster increase of at least 12 from Brawl, and if we remove Squirtle and Ivysaur, we'll need a total of 14 newcomers. Doesn't really sound impossible to me.
Want: 100%
As Eggman once said, the more the merrier.
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Chrom AT
If Chrom isn't playable, he's not gonna be an AT, I don't think. For one, I don't know what he'd do that would be different. Second, it would be very disappointing for his fans. Fire Emblem could get another AT, but I doubt it would be Chrom.
Chrom AT chances: 1%
Chrom AT want: 50%
I'm indifferent.
50+ characters
NOTE: This always included transformation characters as part of the count! Sheik and ZSS being separated have no bearing on this, it wasn't about the character select screen. Brawl had 39 characters.
Anyway, I don't know why people are rating this so high. But I guess it makes sense given how high people here rate characters generally. I'm one of the ones who rates a lot lower because I don't think think this is going to happen.
I'm generally rating a lot lower because I don't think think this is as likely to happen.
It is true that there's less chaff on the Brawl roster (fewer clones/clones are less clone-y) so cuts might not be as deep this time. But expecting it to be 2 (Squirtle and Ivysaur) to 4 is not crazy.
As it is, if we get every character back, and Mewtwo and Roy, that'd put us at 47 characters. We'd only need three more newcomers to get to 50.
But I think we're getting at least a few cuts. Squirtle and Ivysaur are on life support at this point. Others like Ike, Lucas, Wolf and Snake are in real danger. And I'm not certain we're getting Mewtwo and Roy.
So, that puts us at needing more like 6-12 newcomers depending on how many cuts and whether Mewtwo and Roy get in.
Sakurai himself said he didn't want to just add more characters. Of course, fan demand and his desire to please the fans means he's quite likely to expand the roster a bit. But we should consider Melee and Brawl to be more like the upper ends, not our starting points.
Melee expanded the roster by 14 characters, while Brawl expanded it by 13. There were 18 newcomers in Brawl, but also 5 cuts from Melee. But based on what Sakurai said, I'd be surprised if we saw 13 newcomers and/or Mewtwo/Roy without getting some cuts. That would be him doing about as much as he did on the previous two installments despite saying he didn't want to expand the roster as much. And even one or two more cuts would make it much much harder to hit 50 I think.
But the thing is that 13 newcomers plus two cuts puts us at 50 characters. But 12 newcomers or 11 newcomers and Mewtwo would actually be a good amount, and only 2 cuts would be cool too... More newcomers without more cuts seems unlikely to me.
It is possible we could see more than 50 characters, but I don't think it's likely. I think most scenarios would be 47-49, while 46 and 50 start getting into the tails. 45 is possible but probably only if the cuts are a lot deeper than we're expecting.
50+ characters chances: 30%
Thinking about it, I think it's more likely than I thought last night, but still unlikely.
50+ character want: 100%
As long as it plays well, I'm cool with that.
Predictions:
Sceptile - 5%
Mach Rider - 12%
Nominations:
Mario Kart 8 stage x5
It's kinda hard to know what to nominate at this point!
If Chrom isn't playable, he's not gonna be an AT, I don't think. For one, I don't know what he'd do that would be different. Second, it would be very disappointing for his fans. Fire Emblem could get another AT, but I doubt it would be Chrom.
Chrom AT chances: 1%
Chrom AT want: 50%
I'm indifferent.
50+ characters
NOTE: This always included transformation characters as part of the count! Sheik and ZSS being separated have no bearing on this, it wasn't about the character select screen. Brawl had 39 characters.
Anyway, I don't know why people are rating this so high. But I guess it makes sense given how high people here rate characters generally. I'm one of the ones who rates a lot lower because I don't think think this is going to happen.
I'm generally rating a lot lower because I don't think think this is as likely to happen.
It is true that there's less chaff on the Brawl roster (fewer clones/clones are less clone-y) so cuts might not be as deep this time. But expecting it to be 2 (Squirtle and Ivysaur) to 4 is not crazy.
As it is, if we get every character back, and Mewtwo and Roy, that'd put us at 47 characters. We'd only need three more newcomers to get to 50.
But I think we're getting at least a few cuts. Squirtle and Ivysaur are on life support at this point. Others like Ike, Lucas, Wolf and Snake are in real danger. And I'm not certain we're getting Mewtwo and Roy.
So, that puts us at needing more like 6-12 newcomers depending on how many cuts and whether Mewtwo and Roy get in.
Sakurai himself said he didn't want to just add more characters. Of course, fan demand and his desire to please the fans means he's quite likely to expand the roster a bit. But we should consider Melee and Brawl to be more like the upper ends, not our starting points.
Melee expanded the roster by 14 characters, while Brawl expanded it by 13. There were 18 newcomers in Brawl, but also 5 cuts from Melee. But based on what Sakurai said, I'd be surprised if we saw 13 newcomers and/or Mewtwo/Roy without getting some cuts. That would be him doing about as much as he did on the previous two installments despite saying he didn't want to expand the roster as much. And even one or two more cuts would make it much much harder to hit 50 I think.
But the thing is that 13 newcomers plus two cuts puts us at 50 characters. But 12 newcomers or 11 newcomers and Mewtwo would actually be a good amount, and only 2 cuts would be cool too... More newcomers without more cuts seems unlikely to me.
It is possible we could see more than 50 characters, but I don't think it's likely. I think most scenarios would be 47-49, while 46 and 50 start getting into the tails. 45 is possible but probably only if the cuts are a lot deeper than we're expecting.
50+ characters chances: 30%
Thinking about it, I think it's more likely than I thought last night, but still unlikely.
50+ character want: 100%
As long as it plays well, I'm cool with that.
Predictions:
Sceptile - 5%
Mach Rider - 12%
Nominations:
Mario Kart 8 stage x5
It's kinda hard to know what to nominate at this point!
It's not really an explanation to just say what naturally follows from what you just asserted (e.g. that you think there are 50+ characters with decent chances)...
This feels a little tacky. Trying to get Lip's want up is one thing, and because you think the chance needs to be reevaluated is another, but rerating a character because you want to lower their want feels a bit mean-spirited.x1 Bomberman
I see an excess of Bomberman in the want chart, and a major lack of Lip... hmm... let's fix this
Last edited:
andimidna
Smash Master
...What? I think it's more likely than not because of each character's merits. What do you mean?
...It was a joke.
You don't always have to reply to my posts...
YoshiandToad
Smash Hero
I honestly feel that Bomberman will outrank Lip anyway in Want. Many have fond memories of Bomberman due to a steady stream of multiple western releases. Lip was replaced by Yoshi. How can people have a stronger connection with a character they never (legally) got to play?
Chrom the AT
Chance: 3%
Only if Sakurai cares more about uniqueness(in which case Robin plz) or Japan's fan demand(maybe Roy? I forget how they compare now officially).
Face of Awakening, very popular in the west, saved the series, etc. More going for playable than AT.
Want: 85%
I really don't want Chrom. Like the Miis I think he's an inevitable evil, but I seriously don't want him.
The idea of playing as a mid ground between Marth and Ike doesn't excite me terribly.
Yes, I played his game, Yes, he was my first lord, No, I don't think he'd be an exciting Smasher when we possibly have the two characters he's based on already in the game(Ike is still unconfirmed).
Being an AT would be fine with me for a character that offers little in the way of interesting gameplay. With the likes of more interesting individuals getting relegated to the Assist Trophy slot (such as Dillon) a newcomer like Chrom will just really disappoint me. Especially if someone who offers something new for Fire Emblem like Robin ends up as the AT.
50+ Characters
Chance: 51% (50+ chance)
No time devouring SSE, Sakurai has an experienced fighting game team on his hands with Namco, isn't personally balancing the roster this time round, etc. Yes he's making two games, but really after the 3DS comes out who is to say there won't be DLC characters?
With the roster being the thing that sells the game, surely a larger roster=better?
On the flipside, Sakurai said he was now struggling to add more characters and thus we shouldn't expect quite as many newcomers. Thus far we've received six:
Add that to Brawl's roster and we have a total of 45. Remove Squirtle and Ivysaur and possibly Snake and we've got 42. That gives us 8 more newcomers to hit 50, and honestly I can still see us getting some 'secret' newcomers, so I feel it's within the realm of possibility...just.
Want: 100%
Let's be honest more is good and we all really want more anyway.
Why settle for less? Balance issues? What is this? Gamecube era?
Obviously an initial balance is required, but look how unbalanced Brawl was still even after all Sakurai's work.
Why not just do some updates and include a balance patch as they appear? Miiverse and/or the gaming community will inevitably let you know when something is not balanced and need a fix.
It's not like this is a new thing; PC, PS3 and Xbox 360 all did this and even the Wii did update patches to an extent. The 3DS likewise can do patches as we saw with Pokemon X and Y last year. This should be a non issue to any game company who knows what they're doing.
This shouldn't be an issue(keyword; shouldn't) and unless Sakurai holds back on purpose to either include characters as DLC at a later date or to prevent a much larger workload for himself for the next Smash, I expect us to hit 50.
Predictions:
Sceptile: 15%
Mewtwo and Jigglypuff priority crew, the old 'roster slot' argument and arguments about the starter triangle not being required will probably give it an average score of this.
Mach Rider: 20%
Retro. No idea. Takamaru should of taken a slight tumble in the obvious stakes.
Nominations:
All Brawl Vets return X 10. COME ON IKE.
Chrom the AT
Chance: 3%
Only if Sakurai cares more about uniqueness(in which case Robin plz) or Japan's fan demand(maybe Roy? I forget how they compare now officially).
Face of Awakening, very popular in the west, saved the series, etc. More going for playable than AT.
Want: 85%
I really don't want Chrom. Like the Miis I think he's an inevitable evil, but I seriously don't want him.
The idea of playing as a mid ground between Marth and Ike doesn't excite me terribly.
Yes, I played his game, Yes, he was my first lord, No, I don't think he'd be an exciting Smasher when we possibly have the two characters he's based on already in the game(Ike is still unconfirmed).
Being an AT would be fine with me for a character that offers little in the way of interesting gameplay. With the likes of more interesting individuals getting relegated to the Assist Trophy slot (such as Dillon) a newcomer like Chrom will just really disappoint me. Especially if someone who offers something new for Fire Emblem like Robin ends up as the AT.
50+ Characters
Chance: 51% (50+ chance)
No time devouring SSE, Sakurai has an experienced fighting game team on his hands with Namco, isn't personally balancing the roster this time round, etc. Yes he's making two games, but really after the 3DS comes out who is to say there won't be DLC characters?
With the roster being the thing that sells the game, surely a larger roster=better?
On the flipside, Sakurai said he was now struggling to add more characters and thus we shouldn't expect quite as many newcomers. Thus far we've received six:
Add that to Brawl's roster and we have a total of 45. Remove Squirtle and Ivysaur and possibly Snake and we've got 42. That gives us 8 more newcomers to hit 50, and honestly I can still see us getting some 'secret' newcomers, so I feel it's within the realm of possibility...just.
Want: 100%
Let's be honest more is good and we all really want more anyway.
Why settle for less? Balance issues? What is this? Gamecube era?
Obviously an initial balance is required, but look how unbalanced Brawl was still even after all Sakurai's work.
Why not just do some updates and include a balance patch as they appear? Miiverse and/or the gaming community will inevitably let you know when something is not balanced and need a fix.
It's not like this is a new thing; PC, PS3 and Xbox 360 all did this and even the Wii did update patches to an extent. The 3DS likewise can do patches as we saw with Pokemon X and Y last year. This should be a non issue to any game company who knows what they're doing.
This shouldn't be an issue(keyword; shouldn't) and unless Sakurai holds back on purpose to either include characters as DLC at a later date or to prevent a much larger workload for himself for the next Smash, I expect us to hit 50.
Predictions:
Sceptile: 15%
Mewtwo and Jigglypuff priority crew, the old 'roster slot' argument and arguments about the starter triangle not being required will probably give it an average score of this.
Mach Rider: 20%
Retro. No idea. Takamaru should of taken a slight tumble in the obvious stakes.
Nominations:
All Brawl Vets return X 10. COME ON IKE.
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Sabrewulf238
Smash Hero
Chroms AT chance - 15%
Not impossible. If he isn't playable he'll certainly be an assist trophy. It's just at this point it's looking likely he'll be playable.
Chroms AT want - 70%
I can't say I want want it but as it would mean Robin might be playable I'd be happy with this outcome.
50+ Roster chance - 50%
I think there's a decent chance, not much over 50 though. Most likely 52. (Probably 55 at an absolute maximum since I've seen a triple A fighter with 55 characters recently)
50+ roster want - 100%
No duh. What's not to like?
Not impossible. If he isn't playable he'll certainly be an assist trophy. It's just at this point it's looking likely he'll be playable.
Chroms AT want - 70%
I can't say I want want it but as it would mean Robin might be playable I'd be happy with this outcome.
50+ Roster chance - 50%
I think there's a decent chance, not much over 50 though. Most likely 52. (Probably 55 at an absolute maximum since I've seen a triple A fighter with 55 characters recently)
50+ roster want - 100%
No duh. What's not to like?
Last edited:
Sid-cada
Smash Lord
- Joined
- Jan 19, 2013
- Messages
- 1,783
Chrom AT
Chance - 45% - If he's not Playable, he's definitely going to be in the game in some form or another. I'd think AT would be the most likely outcome if he isn't playable, honestly.
Speaking of which, I'm sometimes starting to wonder if we've fallen into a "trap" where we assume playable is the only way a character can be represented, when that's really not the case. I chose this one to see if any more thoughts like this would get started, but apparently I might have chose someone else? Ah well. I'll probably chose Shulk next if and when I want to do this again.
Want - 70% - Chrom's still in the game while not being on the roster. I'd thought this would be a fair compromise, but I guess not.
50+ roster
Chance - 50% - At the very least, we're getting a number very close to it. I can't say for certain what number we're getting, but it's possible.
Want - 90% - Only reason it's not a perfict score is in case some bad apples get into the mix.
Predictions
Sceptile - 13.25% - Some think that a Grass statter is more likely now to comlpeate the "trio."
Mach Rider - 21.34% - Maybe a bit of an increase? Idono.
Nominations
Kid Icarus Smash Taunts X5
(By the way, including the votes as of this post, this should be at 25 votes, not 15. Miffa gave 10 to this yesterday.)
Chance - 45% - If he's not Playable, he's definitely going to be in the game in some form or another. I'd think AT would be the most likely outcome if he isn't playable, honestly.
Speaking of which, I'm sometimes starting to wonder if we've fallen into a "trap" where we assume playable is the only way a character can be represented, when that's really not the case. I chose this one to see if any more thoughts like this would get started, but apparently I might have chose someone else? Ah well. I'll probably chose Shulk next if and when I want to do this again.
Want - 70% - Chrom's still in the game while not being on the roster. I'd thought this would be a fair compromise, but I guess not.
50+ roster
Chance - 50% - At the very least, we're getting a number very close to it. I can't say for certain what number we're getting, but it's possible.
Want - 90% - Only reason it's not a perfict score is in case some bad apples get into the mix.
Predictions
Sceptile - 13.25% - Some think that a Grass statter is more likely now to comlpeate the "trio."
Mach Rider - 21.34% - Maybe a bit of an increase? Idono.
Nominations
Kid Icarus Smash Taunts X5
(By the way, including the votes as of this post, this should be at 25 votes, not 15. Miffa gave 10 to this yesterday.)
Mega Bidoof
Smash Hero
Chrom AT chance: 15%
He is most likely going to be playable. He is the main character in Awakening, which definitley deserves a playable character.
Chrom AT want: 0.1%
I want him playable. End of story.
50+ Character Roster chance: 65%
Brawl had 39 playable characters. Increasing that number by 16 wouldn't be that unrealistic.
50+ Character Roster want: 100%
More characters. How is that a bad thing in anyway?
Sceptile Prediction: 15%
Mewtwo and Jigglypuff will easily get in before him, but he still has a small chance, as he could be the Grass counterpart to Charizard and Greninja, and could introduce a cool playstyle.
Mach Rider Prediction: 20%
A decent retro who makes sense. Though they are definitley some who would get I'm before him.
Nomination: Fawful x5
He is most likely going to be playable. He is the main character in Awakening, which definitley deserves a playable character.
Chrom AT want: 0.1%
I want him playable. End of story.
50+ Character Roster chance: 65%
Brawl had 39 playable characters. Increasing that number by 16 wouldn't be that unrealistic.
50+ Character Roster want: 100%
More characters. How is that a bad thing in anyway?
Sceptile Prediction: 15%
Mewtwo and Jigglypuff will easily get in before him, but he still has a small chance, as he could be the Grass counterpart to Charizard and Greninja, and could introduce a cool playstyle.
Mach Rider Prediction: 20%
A decent retro who makes sense. Though they are definitley some who would get I'm before him.
Nomination: Fawful x5
Depressed Gengar
Hana Is Best Girl
Quick type up again.
Chrom AT: 25%. Doubt it.
Want: 50%. Indifferent.
50+: 50%. Uncertain.
Want: 0%. I want balance.
Mewtwo X5
Chrom AT: 25%. Doubt it.
Want: 50%. Indifferent.
50+: 50%. Uncertain.
Want: 0%. I want balance.
Mewtwo X5
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Leafeon523
Smash Ace
Chrom AT:
Chance: 20%
Why is this getting 0% chances? To me its perfectly feasible for us not to get a FEA rep, just an assist trophy. And who better to fill that role than Chrom?...
Want: 1%
Oh yeah, Fredrick. Fredrick is basically my only request for an AT. GO FREDRICK!
Copy andimidna's response for 50 + characters
Predictions:
Sceptile: 18.14%
Mach Rider: 18.24%
Nominations:
Post-release Patches x5
Vaati x5
Chibi-robo x4
Yarne and Owain tag team re-rate x0
Fredrick AT x1
Chance: 20%
Why is this getting 0% chances? To me its perfectly feasible for us not to get a FEA rep, just an assist trophy. And who better to fill that role than Chrom?...
Want: 1%
Oh yeah, Fredrick. Fredrick is basically my only request for an AT. GO FREDRICK!
Copy andimidna's response for 50 + characters
Predictions:
Sceptile: 18.14%
Mach Rider: 18.24%
Nominations:
Post-release Patches x5
Vaati x5
Chibi-robo x4
Yarne and Owain tag team re-rate x0
Fredrick AT x1
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Cheezey Bites
Slime Knight
You had me for a second, was so close to raging!
The Light Music Club
Smash Master
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Perfect as I'm playing through Awakening right now:
Chrom AT:
Chance- 60% I see this happening for the reason that Micaiah or Robin will be in along side Marth and Ike. However I think Sothe will be the other FE AT
Want - 0% - I don't want him in Super Smash Bros. at all. But it could also be 100% if he has to be somewhere in the game, as I don't want him playable.
50+ Character Roster:
Chance: 95% - I find it to be unavoidable
Want: 100% - Need I say more?
Nominations:
Micaiah x 15
Chrom AT:
Chance- 60% I see this happening for the reason that Micaiah or Robin will be in along side Marth and Ike. However I think Sothe will be the other FE AT
Want - 0% - I don't want him in Super Smash Bros. at all. But it could also be 100% if he has to be somewhere in the game, as I don't want him playable.
50+ Character Roster:
Chance: 95% - I find it to be unavoidable
Want: 100% - Need I say more?
Nominations:
Micaiah x 15
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Oi, if I see this kind of obsession with the want chart, I'll take it down. Especially considering the Chance Chart is the only one that actually matters for this game.x1 Bomberman
I see an excess of Bomberman in the want chart, and a major lack of Lip... hmm... let's fix this
Please, don't rate characters out of animosity towards other characters. It's against the spirit of the game.
NickerBocker
Smash Lord
Chrom AT
Chance: 20%
Want: 35%
He will most likely be a playable character if he is put into smash. Granted, I dont want another sword lord but I do expect it to happen. Chrom will show up in this game in some way, shape or form, and an AT is definitely a possibility.
50+ Characters
Chance: 30%
Want: 100%
The more the merrier, provided there is balance within the roster, which I am confident there will be. If there are no more/very limited cuts from thus point on, then it stands a pretty good chance. However, I do think there will be more cuts somewhere along the line. Will the roster be close to 50? Yes. Actually get more than 50? Possibly, but I dont think so.
For the sake of argument lets say Squirtle, Ivysaur and Snake are cut. With the newcomers we have, that gives us 42 characters. Are we expecting another 8+ newcomers? Who knows?
If there is any truth to the Gematsu leaks, then 50+ characters is pretty likely. I dont think the leak is entirely true, so its a solid maybe from me.
Predictions
Sceptile: 26.3%
Mach Rider: 13.4%
Nominations:
Ryu Hayabusa x5
Chance: 20%
Want: 35%
He will most likely be a playable character if he is put into smash. Granted, I dont want another sword lord but I do expect it to happen. Chrom will show up in this game in some way, shape or form, and an AT is definitely a possibility.
50+ Characters
Chance: 30%
Want: 100%
The more the merrier, provided there is balance within the roster, which I am confident there will be. If there are no more/very limited cuts from thus point on, then it stands a pretty good chance. However, I do think there will be more cuts somewhere along the line. Will the roster be close to 50? Yes. Actually get more than 50? Possibly, but I dont think so.
For the sake of argument lets say Squirtle, Ivysaur and Snake are cut. With the newcomers we have, that gives us 42 characters. Are we expecting another 8+ newcomers? Who knows?
If there is any truth to the Gematsu leaks, then 50+ characters is pretty likely. I dont think the leak is entirely true, so its a solid maybe from me.
Predictions
Sceptile: 26.3%
Mach Rider: 13.4%
Nominations:
Ryu Hayabusa x5
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D
Deleted member
Guest
OK, that's it! Stop, just stop! Nominating Bomberman was bad enough for my sake, but this quote just broke me.x1 Bomberman
I see an excess of Bomberman in the want chart, and a major lack of Lip... hmm... let's fix this
Don't nominate Bomberman because of your selfish desire to make Lip be put in the Top 10 of Want. It goes against everything in this thread as it is cruel and mean-spirited. What if I nominate Lip for a change so that I can take her want down? Should I do that? Do you want me to tick you off? Should I cause trouble in this thread? Should I mention that Bomberman doesn't need to be re-rated? We established that if we get a Konami rep, it's Snake or bust, therefore a re-rate like this is unnecessary.
I am in talks with Groose and the other RTC members about banning your nominations for Bomberman because your actions will cause trouble in this thread when his day comes, something that we don't want.
If your purpose is just to do this, then you can kindly leave this thread. It was bad enough that the Bandana Dee re-rate in the new thread was a bloodbath. Rate characters for fun, not because of some pointless Top 10.
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We don't need another salty day like BWD's Day 2 and 3 full of Counter Ratings and Bias Chance.
No spite, either. It's not fun for anyone in this regard. Nominating to "dethrone a character" is the equivalent of a biased and unfair rating, and could lead to ratings/nominations rendered null.
Not even part of the staff team, lol
No spite, either. It's not fun for anyone in this regard. Nominating to "dethrone a character" is the equivalent of a biased and unfair rating, and could lead to ratings/nominations rendered null.
YoshiandToad
Smash Hero
Wu-oh. Should I alter my votes?
(but crap, I don't know who to vote for now; all the characters I like are deconfirmed/rated recently and I don't want to waste them on garbage like "Kid Icarus Dog")
D
Deleted member
Guest
You probably should.
For the sake of the thread, I rather have him not get rated just to see if his want will be raised or be lowered. He's perfectly fine where he is on both charts.
As to what you should use your nominations on... I think that it might be interesting to see how No Brawl Cuts will fare this time around.
themoonsloth
Smash Rookie
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- 7
Chrom AT:
Chance: 15%. I personally think he'll be playable or a stage hazard on Ferox. He's pretty much the protagonist of Awakening so he'll be in the game in some form or another.
Want: 20%. I'm pretty torn on this honestly. I really like how Ike plays and I would much rather Robin be playable over Chrom, but I still really want Chrom to be playable as well. However, there's only a small chance there will be 4 FE reps if one had to be an AT, I'd honestly rather it would be Chrom.
50+:
Chance: 55%. There's a pretty big chance of this happening. We're already at almost 50, if you cut only Ivysaur and Squirtle from the Brawl roster. There will most likely be a large amount of newcomers revealed at E3, Dev Direct, and as hidden characters. So I'm betting we'll see over 50. |
Want: 100%. Does anyone not want this? I can understand it for balancing and clone concerns but I have faith in Nintendo for balancing and I dont mind if there's a few clones.
Predictions
Sceptile: 50%. Yeah, I'm one of those crazy people who think there's gonna be 7 pokemon reps in the game. I'll save most of my points for tomorrow, but I think Sceptile has a pretty large chance at being put in the game.
Mach Rider: 25%. I dont see much potential in his moveset, but its not like they havent done stuff like that before (Fox/Falcon).
Chance: 15%. I personally think he'll be playable or a stage hazard on Ferox. He's pretty much the protagonist of Awakening so he'll be in the game in some form or another.
Want: 20%. I'm pretty torn on this honestly. I really like how Ike plays and I would much rather Robin be playable over Chrom, but I still really want Chrom to be playable as well. However, there's only a small chance there will be 4 FE reps if one had to be an AT, I'd honestly rather it would be Chrom.
50+:
Chance: 55%. There's a pretty big chance of this happening. We're already at almost 50, if you cut only Ivysaur and Squirtle from the Brawl roster. There will most likely be a large amount of newcomers revealed at E3, Dev Direct, and as hidden characters. So I'm betting we'll see over 50. |
Want: 100%. Does anyone not want this? I can understand it for balancing and clone concerns but I have faith in Nintendo for balancing and I dont mind if there's a few clones.
Predictions
Sceptile: 50%. Yeah, I'm one of those crazy people who think there's gonna be 7 pokemon reps in the game. I'll save most of my points for tomorrow, but I think Sceptile has a pretty large chance at being put in the game.
Mach Rider: 25%. I dont see much potential in his moveset, but its not like they havent done stuff like that before (Fox/Falcon).
Cpt.
Smash Lord
50+
Chance: 20%
Want: 100%
Over 50 characters seems like we are asking for a lot. I'd be happy with 47-50 characters. I don't expect anything more.
Chance: 20%
Want: 100%
Over 50 characters seems like we are asking for a lot. I'd be happy with 47-50 characters. I don't expect anything more.
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MargnetMan23
Smash Lord
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- Jun 18, 2013
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- 1,667
Chrom AT Chance: 7% So if Chrom doesn't make it in as a playable character, than giving him Assist Trophy status makes sense right? ... Not really. Not only is it basically just pouring salt into the wound of his supporters but he barely has any potential at ALL to make an interesting assist trophy. As I said in my predictions, save the assist trophies for someone like Tharja, Anna (not saying she has no chance of making it in, but if she doesn't...), Nowi, Tiki etc. I mean, assist trophy choices like Elecman already prove that these kinds of choices aren't out of the realm of possibility.
Want: 5% I'm not that interested in seeing Chrom as playable, but seeing Chrom as an Assist Trophy just sounds kind of lame.
50+ Chance: 20% I'm expecting a minimal amount of cuts and a not particularly large character increase. I think 50 is the largest roster size that still has a considerable chance of happening. I mean, 7 more newcomers/new characters if only Squirtle and Ivysaur were cut? OK, that's feasible. The only thing is, I don't think anything beyond 50 has any considerable chance of happening. More than likely we'll get more than 45 though.
Want: 40% I think that having over 50 characters would mean that some of them would not be nearly as fleshed out as they should be. Additionally, I'm not going to need over 50 characters to get some of my important character wants covered. Even if I don't get Ridley, Robin, Bandanna Dee, or Mewtwo- HOLY **** IT'S MERGA MAN!
Prediction:
Sceptile: 18.6% Well, he seems to make the most sense as the grass starter, but is Sakurai actually going to give us a grass starter? I'm looking forward to giving my opinion on this guy.
Mach Rider: 23.75% *shrugs*
Nomz:
Venusaur x5 ... Well, if Sakurai ISN'T going to cut Ivysaur, how much sense does it make for him to be an out of place MID EVOLUTION? Think about it, it actually kind of makes sense. Not saying that it has a huge chance of happening, but it's there.
Want: 5% I'm not that interested in seeing Chrom as playable, but seeing Chrom as an Assist Trophy just sounds kind of lame.
50+ Chance: 20% I'm expecting a minimal amount of cuts and a not particularly large character increase. I think 50 is the largest roster size that still has a considerable chance of happening. I mean, 7 more newcomers/new characters if only Squirtle and Ivysaur were cut? OK, that's feasible. The only thing is, I don't think anything beyond 50 has any considerable chance of happening. More than likely we'll get more than 45 though.
Want: 40% I think that having over 50 characters would mean that some of them would not be nearly as fleshed out as they should be. Additionally, I'm not going to need over 50 characters to get some of my important character wants covered. Even if I don't get Ridley, Robin, Bandanna Dee, or Mewtwo- HOLY **** IT'S MERGA MAN!
Prediction:
Sceptile: 18.6% Well, he seems to make the most sense as the grass starter, but is Sakurai actually going to give us a grass starter? I'm looking forward to giving my opinion on this guy.
Mach Rider: 23.75% *shrugs*
Nomz:
Venusaur x5 ... Well, if Sakurai ISN'T going to cut Ivysaur, how much sense does it make for him to be an out of place MID EVOLUTION? Think about it, it actually kind of makes sense. Not saying that it has a huge chance of happening, but it's there.
False Sense
Ad Astra Per Aspera
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I find it interesting that one of the more notable arguments against Chrom being an Assist Trophy is that he has no potential.
LoneKonWolf
Lazy Lonely Lurker☕
someone went broke, you need to calm down before that starts affects you mentally, go do something to relax for a bit, a conflicted and cluttered mind can do little for rational thoughts.
though I agree, @
andimidna
purposely rating a character just so his want can drop is such a pointless thing, joke or not your going to offend many people (and I repeat many he has a lot of support) who want him, dropping a characters chance is one thing because it follows what the games purpose is suppose to do, but the want percentages are just a means to see how liked a character is, it serves no value thus its a pointless reason to serve a rating, the only thing you'll be doing is setting up another bad day of unfair/biased ratings, something no one will enjoy.
so joke or not i'll like to ask you to refrain from upsetting a majority of people. if this continues we'll have another day of bandana dee and no one wants that
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Hippopotasauce
Smash Lord
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- Jul 3, 2013
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- 1,659
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- Hippopotasauce
Chrom AT Likelihood: 1%
Want: 10%
50 Characters Likelihood: 28%
Want: 100%
Sceptile: 17.65%
Mach Rider: 14.89%
Mario Kart 8 stage x5
Want: 10%
50 Characters Likelihood: 28%
Want: 100%
Sceptile: 17.65%
Mach Rider: 14.89%
Mario Kart 8 stage x5
Wyoming
Connery, Sean
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Chrom AT
Chance - 0.1% - He's either playable or not in the game. He's a main character from a fairly popular game and unlike other important/popular characters who turn into ATs, his franchise is an established staple in Smash. If there's more FE ATs other than Lyn, then someone else from Awakening like Lucina seems more likely.
Want - 5% - I'm a little indifferent but I'd still find it weird, and his fanbase would obviously be very disappointed.
50+ Characters
Chance - 45% - I think cuts will be kept to a minimum, so it will depend on the amount of newcomers we'll get. I personally see us getting 47-50 in total but 50+ wouldn't shock me. After all, they have a bigger team and more time to work on the roster and its balance.
Want - 100% - Who doesn't want this? A Smash and Nintendo's fan dream, means that a lot of our favourites could get in. I'm all for it!
Chance - 0.1% - He's either playable or not in the game. He's a main character from a fairly popular game and unlike other important/popular characters who turn into ATs, his franchise is an established staple in Smash. If there's more FE ATs other than Lyn, then someone else from Awakening like Lucina seems more likely.
Want - 5% - I'm a little indifferent but I'd still find it weird, and his fanbase would obviously be very disappointed.
50+ Characters
Chance - 45% - I think cuts will be kept to a minimum, so it will depend on the amount of newcomers we'll get. I personally see us getting 47-50 in total but 50+ wouldn't shock me. After all, they have a bigger team and more time to work on the roster and its balance.
Want - 100% - Who doesn't want this? A Smash and Nintendo's fan dream, means that a lot of our favourites could get in. I'm all for it!
andimidna
Smash Master
Woah... why are you taking this so seriously?
He has 2 nominations. There are about 80 characters above him. Why do you care so much?
I'm trying to nominate Savvy Stylist to the top, and have been giving others just 1 for no real reason. Banning 2 nominations won't do anything, really. Who's to say that in a re-rate he'd go down anyways?
I wasn't planning on nominating him anymore, it was a joke. Calm down, please.
I fixed my nominations. This is the last post I've made here that I would have expected to cause any... problems.
But... looks like it did, alright. x2 for Isa. Unless that offends someone else...
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Bravetriforcer
Smash Ace
- Joined
- May 2, 2014
- Messages
- 776
Chrom AT
Chance: 1%
Want: 1%
I'm of the belief that Chrom was basically confirmed for Smash Bros when Awakening was announced. The only possibility of him being an AT is if Robin got in as a fighter instead, and those chances are probably even slimmer than Chrom being an AT. I don't really have a problem with Chrom being playable.
50+ Roster
Chance: 70%
Want: 100%
Assuming there was no cuts from Brawl, which is probably not happening but this is hypothetical anyway, current Newcomers + Gematsu leak would total 51 fighters with a possibility for more. And I don't think people would be all like "Oh man they really put in more than 50 characters? Now I can't buy the game because I have an irrational fear of numbers greater than 50 ;-;"
Chance: 1%
Want: 1%
I'm of the belief that Chrom was basically confirmed for Smash Bros when Awakening was announced. The only possibility of him being an AT is if Robin got in as a fighter instead, and those chances are probably even slimmer than Chrom being an AT. I don't really have a problem with Chrom being playable.
50+ Roster
Chance: 70%
Want: 100%
Assuming there was no cuts from Brawl, which is probably not happening but this is hypothetical anyway, current Newcomers + Gematsu leak would total 51 fighters with a possibility for more. And I don't think people would be all like "Oh man they really put in more than 50 characters? Now I can't buy the game because I have an irrational fear of numbers greater than 50 ;-;"
a smart guy
Smash Journeyman
Chrom is where it's AT:
Chance: 5% The main criterion for being an assist trophy is having some sort of interesting gimmick. What would Chrom do? Goroh already slashes people with his sword, and Lyn already does a powerful sword strike. Maybe he could use a lance?
Want: 10% I don't really want him playable, but I guess this would be a nice gesture to those people who want him in the game. Honestly, I see him more as a trophy.
Three Fifty Characters in the Game
Chance: 55% I think Sakurai would like to make his fans happy, but he might run out of time.
Want: 100% The more characters the better.
Predictions:
Sceptile: 8.26% He's the coolest grass type. That's not saying much.
Mach Rider: 27.31% He's one of the most likely retros, and he is helped by Takamaru's role being borrowed by Greninja.
*Edit* Nominations: Chibi-Robo x5 (I can't believe I almost forgot)
Chance: 5% The main criterion for being an assist trophy is having some sort of interesting gimmick. What would Chrom do? Goroh already slashes people with his sword, and Lyn already does a powerful sword strike. Maybe he could use a lance?
Want: 10% I don't really want him playable, but I guess this would be a nice gesture to those people who want him in the game. Honestly, I see him more as a trophy.
Chance: 55% I think Sakurai would like to make his fans happy, but he might run out of time.
Want: 100% The more characters the better.
Predictions:
Sceptile: 8.26% He's the coolest grass type. That's not saying much.
Mach Rider: 27.31% He's one of the most likely retros, and he is helped by Takamaru's role being borrowed by Greninja.
*Edit* Nominations: Chibi-Robo x5 (I can't believe I almost forgot)
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You know people, one upside of being pessimistic about the number of characters is if we do get >50 characters, you'll just be very pleasantly surprised!
As it is, a lot of people in this thread are going to be disappointed given their high expectations (not just about this particular rating).
Re: andimidna's nominating Bomberman. I think Bomberman wouldn't be as dramatic as people are saying. We didn't have the crazy disagreement about his likelihood that we did about Bandana Dee... and if anything, Bomberman's want is more likely to increase than decrease.
But there's really not a lot of reason to re-rate him as far as getting any relevant info.
As it is, a lot of people in this thread are going to be disappointed given their high expectations (not just about this particular rating).
Re: andimidna's nominating Bomberman. I think Bomberman wouldn't be as dramatic as people are saying. We didn't have the crazy disagreement about his likelihood that we did about Bandana Dee... and if anything, Bomberman's want is more likely to increase than decrease.
But there's really not a lot of reason to re-rate him as far as getting any relevant info.
Sonic Poke
Smash Lord
Chrom AT:
Cance: 1%- He's going to be playable.
Want: 0%- I prefer him playable.
Over 50 characters:
Chance: 80%- We don't have transformations anymore, so if we consider that Brawl had 39 characters, and if we are going to get 10 newcomers plus two/three replacements (Greninja to Squirtle, someone to Ivysaur, and someone to someone), we are going to get 49 characters. Can you understand what I mean?
Want: 100%- Is really needed to explain it?
Predictions
Sceptile: 15,45%
Mach Rider: 27,69%
Cance: 1%- He's going to be playable.
Want: 0%- I prefer him playable.
Over 50 characters:
Chance: 80%- We don't have transformations anymore, so if we consider that Brawl had 39 characters, and if we are going to get 10 newcomers plus two/three replacements (Greninja to Squirtle, someone to Ivysaur, and someone to someone), we are going to get 49 characters. Can you understand what I mean?
Want: 100%- Is really needed to explain it?
Predictions
Sceptile: 15,45%
Mach Rider: 27,69%
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FlareHabanero
Banned via Warnings
I'm more surprised there aren't more people that want Chrom to be an assist trophy.
You know, the same people that are very lukewarm towards the character on the roster.
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False Sense
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Yes, that is a bit strange. I suppose people just aren't very fond of the idea of any character being an Assist. Looking through some posts, I get the feeling that people think being an Assist is an insult, and that it's actually preferable to just be a regular trophy. I guess considering how close Assist Trophies are to actual characters, people see it as a sort of tease seeing a character that could have been playable constantly showing up in fights and killing people. Maybe.
andimidna
Smash Master
Yea, I don't always set myself up to be pleasantly surprised. And I may end up disappointed, but at this point, there's so many characters left that I think have a great shot that haven't been shown yet, and I don't believe in excessive cuts, so I would be surprised by less than 50 characters. And if it does happen, which it may, that's why I didn't put a 100%, then I will be both surprised and disappointed.
I think that all Brawl veterans are returning except for Squirtle, Ivysaur, and maybe Snake... and I guess there's that small chance that Chrom replaces Ike... but if we count in returns from Melee too, which I think will be just Mewtwo, that adds up to around 36-38 veterans. And we already have 6 newcomers confirmed, putting the characters at around 42-44. And as for other newcomers?
1. I can't see Palutena not being playable, I just can't see it after all of these hints.
2. I will be shocked if Namco doesn't get a character, and I will be shocked if it isn't Pac-Man. There's even the possibility of another 3rd Party character after him.
3. I have no clue why Sakurai wouldn't add at least 1 DK newcomer, there's multiple good picks and the series is definitely underrepresented compared to the rest of the roster. I think there's a better chance we'll get BOTH K Rool and Dixie than the chance of getting neither and having only 2 DK characters again, having the series surpassed by Starfox, Fire Emblem, Kirby, and tied with Earthbound and Kid Icarus.
4. I don't know why Sakurai would completely skip out on a Fire Emblem newcomer when there are so many great characters to choose from, and Awakening justifies 3 characters now better than when it was planned for Brawl, this is another series where I think the likelihood of getting 4 characters surpasses staying at 2, because, if for some reason Sakurai just doesn't like any of the characters in Awakening and doesn't want to add any of them, then I think he'll just add a Luigi-fied Roy to appease the fans. Which would bring the count to 3 also.
5. I'd also be just... confused if there were 0 retro newcomers. That makes no sense to me at all. There are so many to pick from, and there's always been 2 added, 1 popular and 1 historical (well, not when things were just getting started in SSB64, but that's not really a reason against it). Even if that's just a pattern of 2, I can't see it being broken, it seems like more retro characters are being requested than they have for past Smash games, both popular and historical picks. And I think that Sakurai said something about a retro focus? That may not be true, and may not have been directed at playable characters, but to not only not have 2 new retro characters, but not even 1, would be a big shock to me.
6. I'd also be surprised if no other new series get represented. Most of the big Nintendo series have all of their main characters, which is noticeable because of the fact that our only existing-series newcomers so far are Rosalina and Greninja, and while they're popular, and will most likely become important over time, they aren't yet. Little Mac was the most obvious option, and he made it.
Even though Shulk and Isaac aren't competing, it's easy to group them together, and I'd be surprised if neither made it, they're both popular requests and have the uniqueness going for them. Shulk's game was fairly recent with a new one coming, and Isaac has his prominent pre-Brawl popularity that carried over to now, and from what I've heard, his VC game is doing very well. They both seem like very good fits. And there are other options too: Wonder Red, Andy, Chorus Men, Mii, Captain Rainbow, Ray, Chibi Robo, Jill, Tempo, Barbara, Mallo, and so many more. If I added up the chance scores I'd give to these 13 characters it would add up to 340%... I think we've got at least 3 more coming from this category, with the possibility of a 4th. But I guess I wouldn't be completely surprised to not see 3. Having less than 2 of these would though. I don't think that we have only old-series characters left except for 1.
And at that point, the roster has reached either 50 or above. So that's why I expect it, there are more than 6 characters left that I think are probably in. The newcomers left that I currently score higher than 50% chance are Palutena, Pac-Man, Chrom, Shulk, Dixie Kong, King K Rool, Isaac, Ridley, Ghirahim, Bowser Jr, and Mach Rider. (I'd also give the concept of a historical newcomer above 50%) With Takamaru, Robin, Krystal (don't hate me but I think Sakurai might add her or at least consider her), and Chorus men closely following just below 50%.
This is basically what I was trying to explain in my rating post, but it turned out to be more of a list.
I can't see so many of these choices getting skipped out on. It's just my view of the remaining characters.
Oh, and I already changed my Bomberman nomination to Isa Jo, so we don't have to worry about that anymore.
Burigu
Smash Ace
- Joined
- Apr 10, 2014
- Messages
- 784
Chrom AT
Chance: 2% don't see the main lord of the best FE game ever getting anything less than playable
Want: 25% my want is based on my last statement, I don't see Chrom getting in as anything but playable, so it's not like I don't want him at least as an AT but for me there is no way this will happen.
50+ characters
Chance: 20%
Want: 100% the more the better, there is nothing like "to many characters" (look at pokemon)
Nominations
Medusa * 5
Chance: 2% don't see the main lord of the best FE game ever getting anything less than playable
Want: 25% my want is based on my last statement, I don't see Chrom getting in as anything but playable, so it's not like I don't want him at least as an AT but for me there is no way this will happen.
50+ characters
Chance: 20%
Want: 100% the more the better, there is nothing like "to many characters" (look at pokemon)
Nominations
Medusa * 5
Two isn't much of a pattern though.
Also, who is the popular one out of Mr. Game & Watch and Ice Climbers? I don't think either one was a popular choice at the time.
I think this has more to do with people assuming that a couple retro characters are a given and looking for who they would want to fill those slots. If people weren't already assuming that we would be getting retro characters, I think there'd be a lot less people talking or caring about them. A lot of them became forgotten characters for a reason. Some of them might be considered cool ideas without this factor. Takamaru has samurai appeal... IMO Duck Hunt Dog would have almost no fans at all if people didn't think that Sakurai "has to" add a retro, preferably a wacky one. It also seems like American fans of Japanese exclusives are pretty much caused by this phenomenon of trawling for retros IMO.
But I don't think he has to have one. I think he'll add a couple retros if they're appealing enough... but it's possible he won't find any of them, or at least not two of them, appealing enough. That is, he may be on the lookout for a retro candidate, but I don't think he'll put in a retro for the sake of having a retro.
Little Mac has had a decent amount of retro flavor with his artwork and the wire-frame costume, etc...
That's what I meant by this not being an explanation. I think that a huge roster is unlikely, therefore their chances would add up to less than that for me. That's not evidence, it just is consistent with my differing opinion.
My evidence is that Sakurai himself said he would not be emphasizing increasing the roster size... and that suggests that we should expecting AT THE HIGH END the kind of increase we saw in the previous two installments. And that kind of increase gets us to 50 characters... meaning 50+ characters should be towards the high end, thus unlikely.
My evidence isn't based on looking at the characters, because:
1. the two things are related. You give higher scores to characters because you think a large roster is likely, and you say a large roster is likely because you give higher scores to characters. But if you thought a smaller roster size was more likely, you would think there's more competition between those characters and thus lower their scores (hence why my scores are consistently lower).
2. we saw that during Brawl speculation people think every character is plausible, every character could be cool, and so they massively overrated them. I mean, why wouldn't he put in Tom Nook, or Krystal, or Ridley, or Vaati, or Black Shadow, Toad, Isaac, King K Rool, Geno, Wolf Link? They're all cool, right? Those were all characters that the Brawl predictions rated about 50%! But they essentially predicted an 80+ character roster because they didn't adjust their scores realistically to reflect the number of slots that were realistically available. They weren't even close! Even if they had thought that a significantly larger increase than Melee was likely, like a 20 character increase, they still overestimated by 25-30 characters. This shows me that people are bad at considering these things at an individual basis. However, their predictions weren't that bad... if you adjusted them to match a realistic roster size.
3. Less importantly, since I know people will dismiss this as black magic, and this actually is higher than what I think it will be, but my sales-based model predicts something like 44-50 slots, excluding 3rd parties. It basically predicts no series size cuts (it thinks Star Fox, Pokemon and Earthbound are the only ones with much likelihood to get fewer characters). Adding in 3rd parties would make that like 46-54 slots, so based on that, 50+ slots should still only be about 50%...
But it also doesn't know anything about the candidates and gives negative scores to some series. So it gives G&W, Ice Climbers and ROB chances of getting newcomers, despite that being basically impossible. IMO, it also greatly overestimates Wario (not knowing that Wario is really the only big character), Yoshi (not knowing that it overlaps significantly with Mario), Pikmin (not knowing that other candidates are extremely similar to Olimar), and F-Zero (not knowing the series is dead). After correcting for these things and adding in 3rd parties, we get an estimate of 45-52 slots, which seems about right to me.
I think the evidence should be based on the roster sizes of the previous Smash games and Sakurai's comments specifically relevant to the overall roster size, not on your thoughts about individual characters which are colored by your thoughts about roster size in the first place.
But people thought that with Brawl as well. And then the roster came in at half the size they predicted.
And Sakurai skipped over a lot of deserving characters for Melee and Brawl. Diddy, Dedede, Meta Knight and Wario were skipped for Melee. Mewtwo, Toad, Isaac, Little Mac, Animal Crossing, Ridley, Dixie/K Rool, Krystal, etc. were skipped for Brawl.
He will probably skip over a lot of characters people "couldn't see him skipping out on" again. He's not going to please everyone. Better to be prepared for that than to make your expectations sky-high.
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BluePikmin11
Akko is my dear daughter!
Chrom AT Chance: 0.5% Never going to happen, especially when it comes to the Leaky Chorus.
Chrom AT Want: 0% I learned to accept that Chrom is in the game and that Sakurai is just wanting to represent great Nintendo characters.
50+ Chance: 35%
50+ Want: The more the merrier!
Nominations:
x5 Ayumi Tachibana
Chrom AT Want: 0% I learned to accept that Chrom is in the game and that Sakurai is just wanting to represent great Nintendo characters.
50+ Chance: 35%
50+ Want: The more the merrier!
Nominations:
x5 Ayumi Tachibana
mahnamahna
Smash Cadet
Chrom AT:
Chance - 0.2% (He's either a playable character or nothing)
Want - 1% (Fire Emblem definitely should get a 3rd rep)
50+ Roster:
Chance: 65%
Reasons -
Chance - 0.2% (He's either a playable character or nothing)
Want - 1% (Fire Emblem definitely should get a 3rd rep)
50+ Roster:
Chance: 65%
Reasons -
- With how much time they've had, there's been enough time that more than 50 characters isn't implausible
- The Wii U desperately needs a blockbuster game. Nintendo could very easily tell Sakurai he has to put as much in the game as feasibly possible
- With a max of 4 characters leaving (Ivy, Squirtle, Snake, and Wolf), there's already 41 characters in the game
- Each Smash game has added at least 14 new characters
- No extensive story mode leaves room for more characters
- Downloadable content may come as a ploy to sell the Wii U version. While you have to pay for DLC on the 3DS, all of it comes free with the Wii U (just an idea!)
- Sakurai likes to misdirect. When he says he doesn't want to focus on characters, that could mean he just wants to equalize the competitive aspect with the characters
Pacack
Super Pac-Fan
- Joined
- Jun 7, 2013
- Messages
- 8,066
- Location
- US (Mountain Time, -7 Hours)
- NNID
- Pacack
- 3DS FC
- 0688-5284-6845
Chrom Assist Trophy:
Chance: Abstain
Want: 80%
This high because it would mean he's not playable...but I want Tiki...
50 or More Characters:
Chance: Abstain
I don't know what to rate this.
Want: 85%
Of course I'd want more characters...but if roster balance suffers from it *coughBrawlcough*, then I don't want it. I'd rather have a well-balanced game with 48ish characters than a badly balanced game with 55. I mean, Pac-Man's practically a lock in my eyes, so I'd be content no matter what else we get...while not getting Takamaru would kinda break my heart, I'd survive.
Predictions:
Sceptile: 17%?
Mach Rider: 16.5%
Nominations: x5 Sheriff
Chance: Abstain
Want: 80%
This high because it would mean he's not playable...but I want Tiki...
50 or More Characters:
Chance: Abstain
I don't know what to rate this.
Want: 85%
Of course I'd want more characters...but if roster balance suffers from it *coughBrawlcough*, then I don't want it. I'd rather have a well-balanced game with 48ish characters than a badly balanced game with 55. I mean, Pac-Man's practically a lock in my eyes, so I'd be content no matter what else we get...while not getting Takamaru would kinda break my heart, I'd survive.
Predictions:
Sceptile: 17%?
Mach Rider: 16.5%
Nominations: x5 Sheriff
- Status