Isaac chances: 17 %
I think he still has a chance, but at the same time he was more popular and more relevant pre-Brawl days, and for unknown reasons he was overlooked and got an Assist Trophy status instead. The new CSS leaks doesn't hurt his chances very much asides from the fact that remaining slots are limited to five more characters, including probably veterans, because Isaac isn't exactly the kind of character you should absolutely show to ESRB (compared to Snake for example), and honestly if Isaac is in the final roster he's going to be unlockable anyway. I'll just quote shinhed-echi's post from the Isaac support thread:
I definitely think Sakurai wants to push the iconic/popular characters out of the way first and into the starting roster. Because characters like Isaac, and Duck Hunt Dog aren't THAT fresh in everyone's mind. Especially the younger audiences. The only characters NOT meant for younger audiences here are Megaman (but he's 3rd party) and ARGUABLY Little Mac (because Punch Out Wii is basically new and perhaps still somewhat a bit fresh in kids' minds).
Isaac is different, Dark Dawn came out with little marketing (just that E3 video), and Isaac himself hasn't been playable since... 2003, was it?
So he's hidden character material if you ask me.
I'm sure retros and clones will be put in the back seat to let the popular characters shine.
And I'm POSSITIVE that if one more Newcomer is revealed before release, it's going to be Dixie Kong, because again, still fresh.
Isaac has against him the fact that he had much higher chances during the pre-Brawl days, but instead got a spot as an Assist Trophy and, to make this even worse, an HIDDEN Assist Trophy, plus the fact that Golden Sun's only post-Brawl game, Dark Dawn, somewhat flopped compared to the GBA titles. For his merits, he's pretty popular as a Brawl Assist Trophy and he's fairly requested by Smash fans for playable role, making him easily recognizable, plus Golden Sun is a popular series and a perfect way to have a face for the GBA era, just like how for example Duck Hunt and Olimar are the face of the NES and GameCube respectively. The icing on the cake is the awesome potential he has to be unique as a fighter, with djinn, summons and earth-based magic no one else could use as well as him. I want to believe that the counterarguments against his inclusion will not prevent him to be on the final roster and will instead justify his status as an hidden character, and it makes perfect sense to promote an hidden Assist Trophy to an hidden character and BTW to not tease anything Golden Sun-related before the game release.
Also there is a remaining slot on the leaked stage selection screen. There is the possibility that the SSS is final, but it would be ugly to have this remaining empty slot on the final SSS. This opens a door for an unrepresented franchise, and I believe that Robot, Duck Hunt and Wii Fit will probably have stages from their series represented only in the Wii U version given their strong bonds with console games and the fact that those series have nothing to do with haldheld systems. It's even possible that there are more stages to unlock with an additional line that would be added, but overall I think that there is only one remaining unlockable stage.
Isaac has both strong arguments for and against him, and while I don't feel that he's very likely, the only way to know his chances is to be Sakurai himself. There is no way he didn't AT LEAST consider a Golden Sun rep, we just have to hope that Sakurai thought that it was worth it to promote Isaac to playable.
Isaac want: 100 %
Isaac's AT in Brawl is awesome, he himself has a cool character design, and I feel that he has strong merits to be added that would possibly outshine the arguments against him. I bought the first Golden Sun game to see Isaac's potential and to actually become hyped with his possible announcement, and it's a very enjoyable game that shown me Isaac's awesome potential as an SSB fighter. Even though I would feel disappointed with his disconfirmation I prepared myself mentally to this possibility, as I could understand his non-inclusion to SSB4 as a fighter, contrary to Mewtwo's disconfirmation that would make me utterly shocked and completely uncomprehending at this point.
I'm going to rate Chorus Men and Dixie Kong later.
By the way with the new pic of the day the Chrom Assist Trophy concept cannot be considered as deconfirmed anymore lol.
Edit: time to rate Dixie and CM!
Dixie Kong chances: 75 % and
want: 70 %
Even though I played a lot of Donkey Kong games including Donkey Kong Country 2 and 3 I don't exactly remember of what she could use to be unique as a Donkey Kong rep, her games aren't fresh in my mind. Maybe she could be a Diddy Kong clone similar to Dr. Dark Lucina, but Donkey Kong getting only a clone as a new rep would be really sad, given that Mario, Kid Icarus and Fire Emblem all get a unique newcomer in addition to a new clone. Donkey Kong is probably the most poorly represented series in Smash currently, it's probably the fourth Nintendo series in term of importance but for representation it is outclassed by Fire Emblem, Kirby, Starfox and even Kid Icarus! I'd say that unique Dixie is the most likely choice given the low number of remaining slots in the CSS, most of them being probably reserved for the three Brawl veterans with unknown fate, but unique K. Rool and clone Dixie is also a possibility (with slim chances to happen I admit). If we had only one to choose one I think that Dixie is more likely given her more obvious relevance in post-Brawl games, but overall I think that Donkey Kong is without a doubt the series with the higher chances to get a rep at this point.
Chorus Men chances: abstain and
want: 9 %
Those and Ridley are for me the only characters who are like a division by zero to rate at this point. Really the only reason why everyone consider those is because of the Gematsu leak, but its reliability was cut down a lot since Robin's reveal. The first leak predicted Wii Fit Trainer and all of the other characters in it, the second leak had Palutena and Shulk proven but Chrom disproven... really I can't have any opinion on those leaks x_x The Sneaky Spirit in Smash Run suggets that we could get a Rhythm Heaven character, but there's also the possibility that series with no playable character could nevertheless get enemies.
And for want... meh, I'm fine with a Rhythm Heaven rep but a such trio seems too gimmicky to control IMO. Though I'm really interested in a character with a rhythm-based gimmick, a concept only used in previous Smash Titles with Donkey Kong's Final Smash in Brawl.
