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[Gre ninja'd]

Ice climbers
Want: 100%
Chance: 15%
Lucas
Want: 10%
Chance: 1%
Wolf
Want:12%
Chance: 40%

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Icies Want: 55%

Lucas Want: 60%

Wolf Want: 85%

 

[PK_Wonder]

Results Tab Updated

ICs - 20% chance, 90% want
Wolf - 30% chance, 95% want
Lucas - 20% chance, 0% want

 

[jaytalks]

Ice Climbers:
Chances: 35%
There is the reports of problems with team characters on the 3DS. And no word otherwise. But then again, there are polar bears in smash run. but there are other unrepresented series as well. I'm leaning toward the leaked roster being the final roster, but any others missing will be veterans, from my guess.
Want: 0%
I'm okay with them being cut.

Wolf:
Chances: 10%
It doesn't matter that he is semi-clone and thus easier to design. Characters get cut because there is room for only so many characters in the game. As I've thought, Falco has more value to Smash, even if Wolf was given a more unique moveset in Brawl. But elements of the moveset could be simply transferred to Falco. Either way, it's not looking food for this mercenary.
"I...Can't...Lose! ...because I'm not in the game."
Want: 1%
"No way! I don't believe it!"

Lucas:
Chances: 5%
Why does Lucas get the lowest chance of all? Because he's from a Japan only game, limiting his fanbase outside of Smash and support.
Want: 5%
I don't want to give him a zero, because even though I have no attachment to him outside of Brawl, I'd hate to kick a guy when he's down. He should have gotten an international release.

 

[chronomantic]

Assuming the leaked roster is final and there's no DLC it's 0% in chance for all three

Want:
-Ice Climbers: 30%. Indifferent mostly towards them though I'm surprised they didn't come back.
-Wolf: 0%. don't care. Hate clones.
-Lucas: 0% don't care, glad he's gone. Although If I had to choose I'd have preferred by a mile these last two over even more awful clone additions like Dr. Mario and Dark Pit.

 

[IronFish]

Just to be clear, 0% means snowball chance in hell, not gonna happen no matter what, etc etc. So when people say these characters have 0% they are saying they are just as likely as Shrek to be in the game. So people don't give 0% please, all three of these characters are really 50% chances, and that's not the final roster anyway.

 

[Delzethin]

...It seems I miscounted and forgot about today. >_>

It's taken a day longer than I thought, but we've reached the penultimate point nonetheless. We've suffered quite a few characters on the way...more than many thought we would. There may yet be a chance, though, that we'll find them alive and well before the end, having survived despite impossible odds. If not, though, my thoughts go out to those who lost dear friends.

But we need to remember, all of us, that even when things seem at their darkest...there is still reason to fight.

Ice Climbers
Chance: Abstain

Want: 40%

I've never been huge on the Ice Climbers. Maybe it's because nostalgia doesn't affect me much, or maybe it's because they hard countered Kirby in Brawl. >_> Whatever the reason, though, I'm not all that sad to see them likely gone.

Even though the idea of a dual character is interesting on paper, the ICs were very hard to get to work right in practice. A moveset based around two-hit combos and teaming up fell to the wayside in favor of desynching the Climbers and abusing the limited control players had over Nana. It may be the memories of constantly getting zero-to-death chaingrabbed speaking, but they felt poorly implemented, with so many ways to exploit their mechanic that it'd've been very hard and time consuming to balance them.

While we don't know for sure whether the Climbers were cut because the developers never did figure out how to keep Nana's AI from taxing the 3DS version's CPU or for other reasons...honestly, I don't mind losing them. If they come back through DLC later on, though, I'd be okay with it...as long as they lose the goddamn infinite.


Lucas
Chance: Abstain

Want: 25%

I don't have much to say in favor of Lucas. He was a semi-clone brought in due to his game being popular at that time in one part of the world. His presence in general just felt like a one-off, and his time has passed. I get where the Lucas players are coming from; those who preferred his playstyle to Ness, but I'm fine with him leaving.

...But I still would've rather had him than Dr. Mario. >_>


Wolf
Chance: Abstain

Want: 32.5%

Another character seen as possibly on the chopping block, Wolf was in a bad situation even in Brawl. While he played as differently from Fox as Toon Link did to Link, he was still a semi-clone of a character who already had a semi-clone. Even though he was a rare villain, he still felt vestigial, and with no new Star Fox game since 2008, it seemed like there was a decent chance Star Fox would get trimmed down to just two reps this time around.

Now I feel disappointed, though...for complicated reasons. If this new Star Fox game has been in development for a long time, could it have been considered for release earlier than next year? Were there other half-clones or clones less necessary than Wolf (which is more personal opinion than anything, but still)? And has Falco been made any different to keep him from feeling like he was only kept in because of seniority?

And if he missed the cut, it really lowers the odds of Star Fox getting a newcomer.

I guess that if anything, Mario Kart 8 getting DLC makes it very likely SSB4 will get the same. Maybe we could see a DLC pack come out around when the new Star Fox game comes out, with Wolf as a returning veteran alongside a certain Cerinian vixen as a newcomer...

 

[Starbound]

ICs: 2% Chance / 90% Want
I hate how broken they are but they've become such a huge part of the Smash family that saying bye is hard.

Wolf: 6% Chance / 5% Want
Then there's this guy who is the definition of third wheel.

Lucas: 0% Chance / 0% Want
and then there's this guy who is SOL.

 

[Kalimdori]

Ice Climbers chance: 20%
Oh... I remember when I rated these 100% last time we rated them... how times have changed... I don't think we've seen the full roster, but it isn't looking good for the climbers. It's possible they've been moved to unlockables, but the very fact that Sakurai has admitted to having trouble with them may mean that instead of taking the time to figure out how to make them work, they simply cut them and spent the time on other characters.

"But Kalimdori! You put Chorus Men higher then this!"

Yes. Yes I did. Because I don't think they would work in the same way as Ice Climbers.

Want: 20%
I'm terrible with Ice Climbers, I have no nostalgic connection to them, and if characters have to be cut, these would be one of the first I would pick.

Lucas Chance: 15%
I highly doubt both Lucas and Ness would be unlockables, and he was always one of the most likely to be cut.

Want: 40%
I preferred Lucas to Ness, but neither were among my favorite characters. I'll live without him.

Wolf Chance: 50%
I believe that out of all the characters we're rating, Wolf easily has the best shot of the 3. Again, I don't think we've seen the full roster, and Wolf makes sense as being one of the last characters to unlock. And of the 3 he makes the least sense to be cut, as he wouldn't have any troubles implementing like the Ice Climbers, and he's not from a dead franchise like Earthbound. If Wolf isn't in the initial game, I'm sure he's not far behind release as DLC.

Wolf Want: 100%
Wolf is one of my favorite characters in Smash Bros. I love his brutal take on the Star Fox fighting style, and I will be severely disappointed if he doesn't appear in some form in the next installment. Especially if Falco made it in over him. Because >

 

[Morbi]

Ice Climbers Chance: 50%

Their inclusion relies on a dependent variable, did Sakurai decide to program the Ice Climbers? If yes, they are in the game; if no, they are not going to make an appearance. Honestly, their omission in the leak is not entirely relevant. Sakurai could potentially include them despite the issues if he wanted to; however, their removal would be justified based on the technical limitations. It is easy to assert that there is a 50/50 chance that they return. Ice Climber's are prominent Smash characters, there is no doubt that Sakurai spent quite awhile to develop them properly. He does not seem to be the type to waste his efforts either. They did not function perfectly in Brawl and the 3DS version is only one half of the game.

Ice Climbers Want: 100%

I have warmed to the Icy Ice Iced Climbers recently, it would be a shame to see them removed over something as trivial as this. They offer a lot more than most of the cast, to be honest. Smash would not be the same without them.

Wolf Chance: 100%

Essentially, Wolf is not going anywhere, if you believe otherwise... bad! There are no logical reasons that entail his removal, there are; however, fallacious arguments that are accepted by the community as they arbitrarily labor a disdain for the prospect of three Star Fox "clones." Wolf is about as prominent as the other antagonists featured in the game. If Bowser and Ganon are main-stay characters, you can bet your ass that Wolf is no different. If you advocate for Wolf's removal because he was a low priority in Brawl, do me a favor and disclose Smash 4's priority list. If you advocate for his removal because he is a "clone," you should probably worry about Falco (or actually try Wolf out for the first time). If you advocate for his removal because Star Fox does not deserve a third character, you should probably check out a great game, Super Smash Brothers Brawl. If you advocate for his removal because he is not "relevant," you should purchase a dictionary; after that, learn how to use the internet and Google some Nintendo articles regarding Star Fox U.

Wolf Want: 100%

Can't let you do that, Sakurai!

Lucas Chance: 25%

Honestly, poor Lucas has gotten the short-end of the stick (get it, his f-smash... no? Okay). If I am to believe that the Gematsu leaker had insider information, it would certainly explain his absence on the ESRB leak. Mother; unfortunately, is quite dormant franchise and Ness retains seniority over Lucas. Most attribute Ness as the representative of the entire series, therefore negating the "need" for Lucas. His specials are easy to implement variants for move-set customization.

Lucas Want: 100%

He deserves it more than Ninten Ness. The rare example of a clone with more (material) differences than similarities. Lucas almost boasts an entirely different move-set as well. Overall, I learned Ness' character through Lucas as he was much more accessible, not to mention fun. Ness should have been replaced by Lucas long ago.

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Ice Climbers chance - 50%
Really worried over here. I'm not expecting them to be in the base game at this point; the chance score is for a post-release download.

Want - 100%
There's going to be a big hole in this game for me if they don't make it.

Wolf chance - 35%
Want - 85%

Lucas chance - 30%
Want - 75%

The Melee cuts (minus Mewtwo) made sense. These ones wouldn't so much. Lucas would make more sense to cut than Wolf, though, because Wolf is more unique.

 

[chronomantic]

Just to be clear, 0% means snowball chance in hell, not gonna happen no matter what, etc etc. So when people say these characters have 0% they are saying they are just as likely as Shrek to be in the game. So people don't give 0% please, all three of these characters are really 50% chances, and that's not the final roster anyway.

That's why I said that if the leaked roster is final and there's no DLC (as Sakurai seemed to be implying once) their chance is 0% because obviously how would they stand a chance in hell if this is the case? it's only a fair assumption, I want this roster not to be final too just like countless of others.

 

[JaidynReiman]

@ Groose what are we going to be doing about the "Top 10 of Chance" after this is over, now? Are we going to finalize it with the current characters?

Because, honestly, if we're going to do that I REALLY think we should rerate the remaining characters in the "Top 10 of Chance" as well, because likely every character not on the leak is going to drop down to nothing. If this isn't the case, it may be an issue because some characters are unfairly in the Top 10 and we're just going to leave it as the final rating after ratings close. Just a thought.

 

[ShinyRegice]

Ice Climbers chances: 35 %
Out of the three remaining Brawl veterans they're probably those with the lowest chance of returning. Previously I never thought that I would ever give a chance score lower than 50 to a Brawl veteran in RTC. It would be kinda surprising, but still not impossible, to see a starter veteran in the two previous games becoming an hidden character. Also it's sad to admit but they have solid arguments for their cut:
> Sakurai is looking for game balance. The Ice Climbers were introduced in Melee for their cool gimmick, unfortunately it turned to be an unbalanced playstyle due to the massive strenght you lose if your second Climber is missing. Game balance is pretty much the same reason why in-battle character transformations are gone IMO.
> Ice Climber is pretty much a sterile series, with only one game during the early NES era. Since Melee, the only games the series got were re-editions of the original game, and compared to the other pure retros Mr. Game & Watch, Duck Hunt and R.O.B. they lack iconicness or importance to Nintendo story.
Unfortunately, it looks like their previous Smash appearances as playable is their only saving grace. Oh, we have polar bears in Smash Run, but having Smash Run enemies from series with no playable character is really something in the realm of possibility.

Ice Climbers want: 50 %
Cuts suck, but at this point I could understand why they would be cut.

Wolf and Lucas chances and want: 90 % for both
Contrary to the Ice Climbers I can't really think of any strong argument against their return. Okay their B-moveset is inspired from another character but they're different enough from Fox-Falco and Ness respectively.

Predictions:
Ridley: 42.53 %
King K. Rool: 35.20 %
Mewtwo: 85.85 %
I know that predictions are pointless now because nominations are not a thing anymore, I'm just curious to compare my own predictions to their actual results.

 

[FalKoopa]

I am clinging to the fact that the leaked CSS is incomplete, since All-Star mode was locked. That factors significantly into my ratings.

Ice Climbers: 55%
The presence of Polar Bears still makes me think that they will be in, technical issues be damned.

Wolf and Lucas: 50% each
A bit lower than ICs due do being comparatively easier to cut, being a little less unique, and not being Melee veterans.

Want for each: 100%
I HATE cuts. I want all three of them to return.

 

[PK_Wonder]

The plot has thickened.

 

[FalKoopa]

And my hunch was right.

 

[a Link to the Forums]

Oooh boy. Today shall be quite controversial indeed.

Ice Climbers:
Chance: 50%
For one we have the highly believable leak (which is pretty much real at this point) which says that Ice Climbers are cut but on the other hand, there's the polar bear enemy to consider. It seems strange to give Ice Climbers representation when there is no character to represent them. And they are one of the most questionable cuts there could ever be. The only way I could see them not making it in is if Sakurai can't get them to work because of techinacl issues. They have been in every Smash game so far and do have a unique ability that no one really has. Even Rosalina isn't quite the same. I could see Lucas cut, Wolf cut, Squirtle and Ivysaur cut, but not Ice Climbers.

Edit: Too bad All-Star Mode doesn't go further. We'd be able to see if Ice Climbers are in or not.
Fun Fact: IC made their debut in 1985 (according to Wikipedia anyway).

Want: 100%
They are probably what is perhaps the most unique Melee veteran. No way I'd want them to be cut.

Wolf + Lucas:
Chance: 15%
This is a similar situation to Ice Climbers except I can actually understand if they are cut. They are both semi-clones in pretty small franchises. They weren't in Melee either.

Want: 30%
I prefer the originals.

 

[Glaciacott]

My God, the amount of uninformed bias during the Chorus Kids was staggering, I'm glad I wasn't around for most of the day. My favorite was someone explaining the series to others and treating the DS version like it was the first one. Lolz.

Also, for reference:
Ice Climber: one game, mixed success
Rhythm Heaven: three games, one arcade, more successful than Xenoblade and very possibly other Nintendo franchises already repped as well.

And that's the perfect segway to ...

Ice Climbers
Chance: 10%

Naturally, realize that these ratings assume we're rating the final copy of the game when we get it on release, and DOES NOT INCLUDE DLC.
And with that in mind, I don't think we'll be getting the Ice Climbers on the 3DS in October. I'm going by what the ninka leak stated and assuming that they just didn't have time to work on these for the 3DS's release, and since the combination of Duck Hunt and R.O.B. leads to reasonable retro representation ... for now they can be held back.
However, I'm pretty certain that we'll be getting them as DLC at some point, probably a free patch to the 3DS version once the Wii U version comes out with them in the roster.
There was also one instance of the Polar Bear being a pic of the day and then that pic being changed to something else. That could have been a result of people knowing Ice Climbers were being worked on but being unable to make it certain to the players whether or not they'd be in the final product.

Want: 50%
Indifference. Series-wise, I think it makes sense to drop them since the Ice Climber game is really not that great, or huge to Nintendo, and nothing was ever done with it unlike Kid Icarus ... but at the same time it's the sort of character I'd miss in terms of offering unique gameplay.
But if they get cut, I won't mind, if they're in, then cool.

Lucas
Abstain on chance because it hurts
Want - 100%
I made the awful mistake of playing Mother 3 this past August and now it's a tremendous tragedy to see Ness all by himself, and Lucas having tremendously great amounts of character development being left behind.
It's awful.
Terrible.
Heartrending.
I seriously seriously hope that Lucas appears once again as DLC, but I'm not as certain of that as I am of the Ice Climbers. I do dream of at some point Nintendo being "Mother 3 is coming out on virtual console, and while you wait, get Lucas in smash bros with this here dlc!!!" and everyone cheers ... but let's be honest, that's probably never going to happen.
And what's worse, because of the fact they're not actual clones they never even had a chance, while Dr. Mario sits there being stupid and ... ugh, wtf man.

Wolf
Abstain on chance because it hurts
Want - 100%
I always found wolf much much more unique and interesting than Falco, and seriously hoped that if Star Fox did lose a rep Wolf would remain and Falco would fly into DLC/Assist territory ... but I suppose the melee legacy matters and the one I find most boring remains.
Such a tremendous shame ... and we also lose an awesome villain. Like Lucas, I'm hoping for DLC but not finding it at all that likely. Also, with Wolf I echo the opinion that it's bull**** that a similar but non-clone character got cut while Dr. Mario gets in. Greatest bull**** in Smash history, next to three Miis and no global release date. And the Shulk trailer receiving no hype prior to being shown.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Ice Climbers:

Chance: 5% - With them always having been starters and of high priority I see absolutely no reason for them to not appear in the leak if they're actually in. Sakurai said he had problems with them on the 3DS, add two and two together and you get no ICs.

Want: 0% - Worst designed Smash characters imo, they always have some cheap grab trick up their sleeve, I'm absolutely fine with them being gone.

Lucas:

Chance: 10% - A little higher chance since it's more believable he'd be low priority, but still most likely out, I don't think we're going to see many, if any veterans appear on the roster from this point on.

Want: 15% - Meh, I've played Mother 3, but Lucas has never been that great of a character to me, neither in Mother or in Smash, I far prefer Ness.

Wolf:

Chance: 25% - Wolf easily holds the best chance of the cut veterans, but that's not saying too much. Basically it'd be easy to understand him being one of the last unlockables and being of low priority, and he's also quite unique. Still, I do believe that for the most part the roster is done, so I can't really give a high chance to anyone at this point. If anything at least Wolf would be all but guaranteed as DLC.

Want: 75% - A villain, that alone should almost be enough. Personally I hate playing Wolf though, I'm just not good with him, however he has become a running gag between me and my friends, and for that combined with his villainy I'd be sad to see him go.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Chance: 5%
Want: 10%
Personally, I've never really thought much of him in Brawl. He definitely felt pretty 'clone-y' when playing him, and PK Freeze could VERY easily become a custom version of PK Flash. The only characterization he showed in the game was SSE where he was, frankly, useless. Ness, however, has seniority, and has a major player base despite being pretty tough to control. I remember when, during Brawl's period, his inclusion was basically considered a blanket deconfirmation for Ness (despite that being untrue), and it feels the same way here. Even if there hadn't been leaks saying it was one or the other.
​

Chance: 5%
Want: 60%
Boy, I suck at playing these guys too. However, like Ness before them, I'd be disappointed to see them go. The ICs are unique in their own right as two separate characters who depend on each other, which no other character can say. True, the original game was nothing special, but they've basically moved into the realm of Ness and Captain Falcon, where their new series is Smash Bros. Having said that, I'm going to miss them. They've been smashing for 13 years or so by now, so it would feel awkward if they left. But they were having hardware issues programming them into the 3DS, which tends to be a death sentence.
​

Chance: 15%
Want: 80%
I liked Wolf in Brawl. He was my cousin's main, so I played teamed with him and against him a lot, and I did like that he felt a bit different than Fox/Falco. He also does give off that villainous vibe (despite his later appearances being more of an anti-hero role), which is great fun. I'd rather Wolf over Falco any day of the week, since Falco still feels very much like Fox and Wolf is more of an antagonist. But Falco has seniority, so things by default look bad for Wolf.
​

And in light of today's POTD, I'm so excited to see what happens tomorrow. This thread is going to get...interesting...

 

[zon770]

Ice Climbers:
Chances: 50%
We honestly have no idea at this point.
Want: 100%
Though Nana can be an idiot I can't shake off the fact that they're my favorite character in Smash.

Lucas:
Chances: 25%
Want: 85%
Lucas was always a nice semi clone to the roster.

Wolf:
Chances: 51%
Want: 10%
Never really cared for him, but I still don't enjoy cuts.

 

[Mega Bidoof]

Ice Climbers
Chance: 25%
The leak says they're cut, presumably due to technical difficulties, but there is that slight chance the leak is wrong about that.
Want: 100%
They deserve to return. Definitley.

Lucas
Chance: 5%
The cut that makes the most sense in the leak. He is a clone, so he would be first on the cutting board.
Want: 80%
I'm a huge Mother fan, and I'd be upset to see this guy go.

Wolf
Chance: 10%
Some people say he will return despite what the leak says, but that's just suspension of disbelief. Even if he is a Semi-clone, and not a full clone, he would be one of the first on the cutting board. End of story.
Want: 80%
I always liked the way Wolf played in Brawl, and while he wasn't one of my most frequently played characters, I really liked him.

 

[Smasher 101]

Chance for all: 20% - I don't think we have the final roster, but I'm not that hopeful on the remaining veterans right now.

Ice Climbers Want: 100% - Love these guys. Their removal would be one of the most disappointing parts of the roster for me.
Wolf Want: 80% - Disappointed with his cut as well, though I won't miss him as much as Ice Climbers, and if I had to cut one veteran between him and everyone who actually made it back I'd drop him anyway.
Lucas Want: 50% - If he's back, great. If he's really gone then I honestly won't miss him.

 

[Sid-cada]

Ice Climbers

Chance - 60% - I'm slightly worried, but hidden characters and the polar-bear photo is giving me hope.


Lucas - 40% - Worrisome position, but still clinging on.


Wolf - 37.5% - A bit harder to say due to having 2 other characters. Who knows what will happen.


Want for all - 100% - I hate cuts.

 

[EmeraldDragonair]

Ice Climbers:
Chance: 65%
Want: 70%
Reasoning: We know there is at least 1 more character, and more than likely 5. ICies would easily be the most likely vet, the only thing that can keep them out is tech difficulties, which Sakurai said he was having, at E3 2013 (or sometime around them). I question why he would mention it so early if he hadn't already solved the issues, but there is a decent chance he just conceded defeat and moved to work on other things.
Wanted due to being by far my best home run characters, and given I suck enough there as is, I would rather they say.

Wolf O'Donnel:
Chance: 70%
Want: 75%
Reasoning: While less important than ICies, I think Wolf is more likely as there are no technical issues. Currently we have 3 secret newcomers and 5 secret characters, of which some may be newcomers. I am guessing 1-2, maybe 3 at most of those 5 will be newcomers, and leaving 2-3 for vets. Wolf should make that, especially if the ICies do go. Want Bc Wolf>Falcon, and we DESPERATELY need more villains.

Lucas
Chance: 45%
Want: 20%
Reasoning: Less important than Wolf, but more important than any other missing Brawler, Lucas was likely considered, but did he make the final cut? Going with my above logic of 2-4 vets, and placing Mewtwo, Wolf and ICies ahead of him in likelihood Lucas is in a bit of trouble, even if the ICies don't make it. He kind of feels like a one-off Character, like Roy. Mother hardly needs a second rep (especially as F-Zero still has Ganon as its 2nd), and in terms of overall content is already over-repped for a single SNES cult classic and a pair of Japanese-exclusive games. Honestly I couldn't care less if he was cut, other but as a (nearly) life-long Mewtwo fan, and fan of 1 or 2 others I though might have seen the axe this time, I wouldn't wish a cut on any Ninty character.

 

[wizardto1]

I would have given Ice Climbers and Lucas a 80% and a 75% but with the leak....
Ice Climbers and Lucas: 5%
I highly doubt they are unlockables, they have should been starters
Both Want: 80%
Wolf: 50%
The only one of the veterans not on the leaked CSS, considering the CSS is incomplete and he was the last unlockable character in Brawl.
Want: 100%
WOLFY DON'T LEAVE ME!!!

 

[YoshiandToad]

All chances: ABSTAIN
Boring option, yes, but I currently couldn't even guess which way this is going to go down.

Ice Climbers
Want: 50%
I don't see them as essentials honestly...and I never have. They do offer a new move set style, but even as someone who played Ice Climber as a kid, it's a very forgettable game.

If they need to be cut for hardware limitation reasons(the most acceptable way to be cut) I'm okay with it.

Wolf
Want: 85%
Cutting Wolf, the closest thing to a villain you could have in Smash(how the hell would Andross work?) is a slap in the face to those who wanted more villains this time round. Not only did they get a grand total of one new villain in Bowser Jr, Wolf was removed leaving it at the exact same amount.

Mostly I want him because out of him and Falco, he was the more interesting clone. He might not have been as competitively viable as Falco(albeit not bad) but his differences to Fox far outstripped that of the bird.

Wolf's the only Starfox character other than Fox I really enjoy, so it's a shame if this is goodbye for now. Wish they'd offed Falco before Wolf. Grumble...

Lucas
Want: 12%
Lucas on the other hand is someone I couldn't care about less.

Japan exclusive, no hope of ever getting over here and a really boring option for a second Mother character considering the series has a lot of viable options for diversity.

I feel like making Lucas's specials so damn similar to Ness was a total waste. Heck; could of done some unique stuff with Lucas and I'd of appreciated this guy a hell of a lot more. Would of preferred Porky honestly.

 

[Jason the Yoshi]

All these characters
Chance: 34%
Want: 100%
I've always hated the idea of roster cuts, even Snake getting cut for the game is undesireable.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Ice Climbers Want: 25%
Read: Zero, but they're veterans so why not.

Wolf Want: 100%
Read: Best villain Smash ever had.

Lucas Want: 25%
Read: Dat USmash.

 

[Diddy Kong]

Chances: 50%
-Really it's 50/50 with them now I feel. Ice Climber content is in Smash 4, we all know that now. Yet technical difficulties really could stand in their way. And they do have their issues! I doubt that 's Luma for example would be able to do wobble combos the same way Ice Climbers can.
Want: 35%
-Yes, they are veterans. But veterans with some huge issues. Brawl brought them back, but at what price? The second most overpowered character after himself. That's, not so good. I never really understood their inclusion either. As Ice Climber wasn't even that noticable of a NES game. And neither did they ever get a remake or something.


Chances: 65%
-I really would be bothered by his removal. He was basically the most unique of the semi-clones in Brawl. He was unlocked very late in Brawl as well, which leads me to believe that even if he wasn't leaked before, he could still be one of the unlockables. Which would be extremely ironic, cause the full Brawl roster sans Wolf was also leaked before. StarFox 64 being remade and ported all the time should result into this. Same with Sheik and Ocarina of Time.
Want: 95%
-Only game I played with him in it was Command. And I loved playing as him, as well as his personality. As well as his moveset in Brawl. I bet I would like this character even more if I would've played SF64 and Assault.


Chances: 55%
-Yes, chances are looking bleak but am more optimistic about Lucas now than before. That Reggie Mother 3 comment during the last major Direct seemed to slightly hint at his inclusion. Or so I hope. Yet, his removal would also make sence considering Mother 3 never got localised, and the Mother series kinda being dead at this point....
Want: 100%
-I supported Lucas for Brawl because of Mother 3. And I will do the same this time. Lucas was awesome, Ness and Lucas where the most fun semi-clone duo to. And I really want him to have another shot in Smash. His moveset is sooo fitting as well to him! It really represents Mother 3's battle system well, and that's what I loved about Lucas. I just don't want to see him leave!

 

[Plain Yogurt]

ICs chance: 60% I didn't put them too high, as technical limits have been said to be an issue. However, this also means that we know they WERE worked on. Sakurai wanted them to return. The CSS leak has a decent chance to be incomplete. I still believe.

Want: 100% I'd never played Ice Climber when Melee came out, but these guys just really struck a chord with me. They're unique, they're fun (if temperamental god DAMMIT Nana), and they've got nothing else going for them, with Ice Climber left with only 1, average at best game. I'd be very sorry to see them go after sticking around for two Smash games.

Lucas chance: 45% I definitely think he has the worst shot, being Japan-only and with Ness already seeming to be a secret. But Marth and Roy were both secret characters in melee, so yeah. On the other hand, that didn't go too well for Roy. We'll see.

Want: 85% I actually prefer Ness and would not be too heartbroken, but I'd still be pretty disappointed. He offers his own unique flavor to Ness's moveset and looking at the leak clearly it's not the fact of being a semi-clone putting him on the chopping block. I think he should stay well before some of these other guys got added.

Wolf chance: 75% Definitely has the best shot, in my opinion. I honestly thought Falco's chances were worse. Star Fox isn't some weird, obscure Nintendo series like Mother anyways. He's one of the main antagonists from a well-loved action series. I don't think he's gone.

Wolf want: 100% Falco should be gone before this guy, and I love Falco. He's got a very cool take on Fox's moves and like the three above I'd hate to see him gone.

 

[Xenigma]

With Shulk confirmed and a very large part of the roster leaked, faith in Isaac has disappeared--yet the passion of his fans has not died. I salute you all. Particularly @ Xenigma .

Boy, today's POTD seems like a big nod to the leak. It's like Sakurai's saying "Yes, it's real. Yes, there's more characters to see. You're welcome." Gotta make sure speculation stays hype til the end! On that note...

Overall Chance Analysis for the Veterans

Let's set the stage: we've got a CSS with most of the characters unlocked and about 4-5 slots still available (depending on how Mii Fighter selection is handled). We've got confirmation from the leaker and now even from Sakurai that there are indeed still characters left to be unlocked, which is why the leak's all-star mode picture has a lock on it. Finally, we've got one very curious piece of evidence to consider: the Ninka leak, a text-based leak that perfectly matches the ESRB leak and the official reveal of Shulk, specifically notes that the Ice Climbers, Lucas, and Wolf (and Snake) are all cut. All those previous bits seem to leave the door open for their inclusion, yet Ninka rather definitively states they're out. This seems like a rather bold claim for a leak that, nearly as we can tell, is based off a roster that isn't fully unlocked (I'm ignoring the bit with four more characters as that's supposedly not part of the leak).

I can't really explain how Ninka is so sure those characters are out, but let's consider where the rest of the evidence leaves us. We've got a mostly unlocked roster with a handful of free slots remaining. If we take the CSS from the Japanese eShop as our starting roster, we're led to believe that these final unlocks would be after characters like Jigglypuff, Duck Hunt Dog, and three clones. In short, these characters should have good reason to be so late in the unlock process, assuming the leaked roster wasn't unlocked in an unusual order. Further, if we want to consider the text leaks that were attached to the ESRB and/or Ninka leaks (none of which are credible, mind), we're given the impression that characters like Ridley, Mewtwo, Dixie Kong, and the Chorus Men are the actual ones to claim these spots. Those build upon that odd claim that the veterans are definitely cut, but we aren't really told why. Given all that, let's go ahead and give individual ratings:

Lucas - 50%
Wolf - 50%
These two are basically in the same boat: semi-clones, Brawl newcomers, characters from franchises that were arguably overrepresented. In short, they're cuttable, but they also have good enough reason to return given they're not as deliberate clones as the likes of Lucina or Doctor Mario. Their semi-clone status also gives them good reason to be kept as very late unlocks for the game, as they aren't so unique as to be major selling points but are nice bonuses to unlock much later. This idea is supported by Wolf being one of the very last unlocks in Brawl, and who's to say it couldn't happen again in SSB4? I don't know why Ninka is willing to say they're cut, but I think there's a strong enough chance for them to just be late unlocks that they're each worthy of coin-flip chances to make it in.
Lucas Want - 50% - I've never played the Mother games (sacrilege, I know) and I think a series that niche probably shouldn't have two characters. That said, he's different enough from Ness and has enough individual fans to support his return, plus I can't say I really want any characters to be cut, so his want stays right in the middle.
Wolf Want - 75% - I also think Star Fox is overrepresented in Smash, but Wolf's also my favorite of the space animals and he's quite well removed from Wolf and Falco despite remaining a clear semi-clone. I'd be for his inclusion, but I wouldn't be too hurt if he actually ends up gone.

Ice Climbers - 25%
While the semi-clones have good reason to be late unlocks, I don't think the Ice Climbers are in the same boat. We've known since E3 2013 that characters like the Ice Climbers were proving a technical challenge this Smash, and for a character that was on the starting roster the past two Smash games, having them not be unlocked in the first 48 characters seems to confirm they ultimately didn't make it. Sure, you could point to the polar bears in Smash Run as indication they were in development at some point, but then we also saw a Sneaky Spirit and we've no proof that the oft-rumored Chorus Men (another team character!) will make the roster either. I don't want to say a unique character with this strong a Smash legacy is definitely out just yet, which is why I'm still giving them a solid chance, but it seems like the writing is on the wall and I can no longer consider their inclusion likely. A true shame if them being cut proves to be true.
Want - 100% - I don't care if they're regularly broken, they're insanely unique and Smash icons. It certainly doesn't hurt that I used to play them in Melee, even if I was terrible with them. I'd be very disappointed to see them gone and I'd hope they become a high priority for DLC if they can't overcome their technical issues prior to launch.

 

[Nimbostratus]

Ice Climbers
Chance- 40%
Obviously the leak is a problem, but the roster doesn't seem to be complete and there is really no good reason to cut them other than technical difficulties. I'm just not sure how much harder it can be than Olimar and Rosalina. I'm not confident anymore, but I don't think they are done for.
Want- 100%
I love the Ice Climbers. I love playing as the Ice Climbers. I have friends who love playing as the Ice Climbers. Losing them would truly be devastating to me. Losing a whole series and a whole moveset just... stinks. A lot. I'd take them making it back over having any other potential non-leaked newcomer, whoever it may be.

Wolf
Chance- 40%
Again, the roster has a good chance of not being final. Wolf has always been a popular cut choice, but I think he brings some good stuff to the table (just get rid of the Landmaster!) Star Fox is not a dead series. Cut him now and people will be asking for him back when Star Fox Wii U comes out.
Want- 70%
I would miss him. I would be sad, but not devastated.

Lucas
Chance- 35%
Not unique like the Ice Climbers, and not from a living series like Wolf. Clones like Dark Pit and Dr. Mario might be in the game, but they'd obviously take less time making than Lucas. Doesn't mean he's gone, though.
Want- 40%
He plays differently than Ness, but not enough so to make him stand out. I don't think Mother deserves two reps. I'll give them some slack, though, as all cuts are sad.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Ice Climbers Chance: 3% At this point they should've been starter characters for the roster, but with the leaked roster picture and technical difficulties in mind. I feel like they are done for at this point, they are probably going to be in as DLC characters, which I'm hoping they are free. Since there are Polar Bears in Smash Run, I doubt Sakurai is going let them go that easily.

Lucas and Wolf Chance: 1% With Ness being chosen over Lucas in the Gematsu leak, him (and Wolf) not appearing in Ninka_Kiwi roster leak and being cut, I think that's enough to say that they are cut from the roster for now. They have most likely been out-prioritized by Dark Pit, Dr. Mario (but his reasons are for his importance to Nintendo) and Lucina as the last-minute semi-clones since Sakurai has been pushing to advertise characters from the most recent Nintendo games. And no, the newest Star Fox game on the Wii U doesn't help Wolf's chances, as it just started development for this year, and highly doubt there was to be any influence from Sakurai to bringing Wolf back.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Lucas
Chance: 10%
Want: 73% - Honestly I liked Lucas a lot more than Ness, it's very sad that he's probably getting cut.

Wolf
Chance: 20%
Want: 64% - Much more unique than Falco and Starfox really should have three reps.

Ice Climbers
Chance: 10%
Want: 100% - One of my favourite characters, they will be missed.

 

[Rockaphin]

Ice Climbers:
Chance: 10%
Want: 1%

I would just like to say that I don't think the Ice Climbers should be cut, no matter how much I hate them, they should be in the game. I mean, if balancing was an issue, nerf them. If it was due to technical difficulties, then this is a good example why the two versions should NOT have the exact same roster. By doing this, you're holding the Wii U back from its true potential.

Wolf:
Chance: 50%
Want: 80%

I prefer Wolf over Falco, there's no reason to cut Wolf especially if newcomer clones become a thing in this installment. He's the closet thing to "Fox's antagonist" that's suitable as a Smash character. Andross is really the antagonist, but I couldn't see him as a playable character, which brings Wolf next in line.

Lucas:
Chance: 10%
Want: 30%

I actually don't really like the inclusion of characters only released in certain countries. Personally, I don't think that's too fair. I'm not saying I hate Lucas, but I don't really care for him too much. I'm not an Earthbound fan so I don't care too much. However, if we see Dark Pit and Dr. Mario, then Lucas better return.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Ike Climbers Ice Climbers:
Chance: 45% - I'm not gonna lie; the leaked roster does not help their chances. That said; we have a Polar Bear enemy in Smash Run, and Sakurai seems to be reviving a lot of retro content for this game, including but not limited to:
- Balloon Fight Stage
- Takamaru Assist Trophy
- Prince Sable Assist Trophy
- Game Boy Stage
- Duck Hunt Dog is playable.
IC are also a veteran. That said; we also have the "they were causing problems early on" argument. Just because they were having problems with team characters early does not mean they still are! Rosalina & Olimar are in this game. Furthermore, Sakurai himself said that the roster was decided LONG AGO, before development, and I believe he also said it hadn't hanged since then aside from replacing the placeholder Pokémon X/Y slot with Greninja. I also feel they've probably switched their status to unlockable; they supposed starting roster has the thid parties, Wario, Luigi, Lucario, Toon Link, and Marth this way, and all the other retros are unlockable.
Want: 100% - They're important vets.

Lucas:
Chance: 5% - He's a Brawl vet who was slightly a clone. He could still get in via DLC, but on main roster isn't happening (probably).
Want: 50% - Indifferent so long as we get Ice Climbers and Mewtwo back.

Wolf:
Chance: 5% - He's a Brawl vet who was slightly a clone. He could still get in via DLC, but on main roster isn't happening (probably).
Want: 50% - Indifferent so long as we get Ice Climbers and Mewtwo back.

 

[Deleted member]

The Directory has been updated.
If you have rated any of these characters, check to see what you've said on their days!

Here's some music for the moment:

Personally, I don't think that this isn't the full roster and today's Pic of the Day shows that All-Star Mode isn't complete. One row on the CSS leak looks like it can fit in another character and it seems odd that Shulk is all by his lonesome with the 3rd party characters. So, I think that we have a couple more characters left.
The only cuts that I see happening so far are Squirtle, Ivysaur, and Snake. The former two make sense to cut in favor of solo Charizard while Snake has zero hints towards his inclusion and we are near the Japanese release. These three cuts in particular could end up being unlockable and are still in this.

I will rate their chance all at once.
Ice Climbers, Wolf, and Lucas
ALL Chance: 50%
I can see this go either way. While the Ice Climbers and Lucas were starters, it doesn't seem unnatural that they are unlockable since Wario seems to be an unlockable character now (for whatever reason). I can see Sakurai make these characters unlockable to surprise the fans of them.
Despite this, I can see their chances go either way. Lucas and Wolf may have been low-priority veterans; they aren't as popular as Ness and Falco respectively and when it came near release, they got cut. The Ice Climbers are a different story than Wolf and Lucas. They had priority over other veterans and newcomers; the issue is that they were difficult to program and I can see Sakurai make the ultimate decision to cut them and move on with development. So, these are pretty likely cuts.
We haven't seen the full roster so they are in the wings, but they are still likely cuts.

Ice Climbers AND Lucas Want: 0%
I wouldn't cry if these two got cut.
For the Ice Climbers, let me repost what I, "Mr. Salty Spitoon," wrote on their day:

Oh-ho boy! Let me tell you something, I absolutely despise the Ice Climbers. I've hated these two since Melee!
When I first saw them in Melee, I hated them immediately. I hated their design, their voices, and their gimmick. As such, their presence annoyed me.
My hatred for me grew even more during Brawl because of their stupid chain grab. Say what you want about how broken Meta Knight is; I find the Ice Climbers to be worse than him because of their chain grab. I mean... it's just evil. I also played their game and I absolutely hate it for what it is.
So, when I heard that Sakurai and his team were having some problems, it gave me hope. False hope perhaps, but still hope that these two would get cut.
And yeah... that's my story. I hate the Ice Climbers with a passion.

As for Lucas, I don't have a connection with him and I far prefer Ness over him. As such, I wouldn't cry if he got cut... but I will be a tad bit upset that Mother 3 is losing some representation.

While I don't want these two characters, I do feel sympathetic for their fans, especially when freaking Dark Pit and Dr. Mario got in over them. Ugh...

Wolf Want: 100%
UGH! Out of all the possible cuts, I am the most upset over this one!
I like Wolf and I loved his moveset in Brawl! He was very awesome to play as! I understand if he got cut, but I wish that he didn't. I am going to be pulling for him to be a DLC character. He deserves to be in Smash Bros.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Wolf Want: 100%
UGH! Out of all the possible cuts, I am the most upset over this one!
I like Wolf and I loved his moveset in Brawl! He was very awesome to play as! I understand if he got cut, but I wish that he didn't. I am going to be pulling for him to be a DLC character. He deserves to be in Smash Bros.

But he was in Smash Bros.... once.

That said; aside from Ice Climber and Mewtwo, I would like to see the Wolf/Impa leak be true as well... too bad it isn't.