Shulk
Points for chance...
+ Fairly requested in both Japan and the West
+ Highly critically acclaimed debut
+ Xenoblade didn't get huge sales, but it
sold out and it's difficult to find a copy for less than $100 (i.e. it would've sold more had they made it more available)
+ Xenoblade is getting a sequel, and Shulk is hinted to be in it
+ He's both easy to design and has some interesting moves
+ Xenoblade would have stunning stage and music potential, if Sakurai cares about such things
+ Sakurai seems to be a fan
+ Part of the Gematsu leak... although personally I'm skeptical of it until we see someone else confirmed who wasn't a gimme (i.e. not Chrom or Palutena). "Pokemon from Pokemon X & Y" is too vague to get full credit, Mega Man and Villager were fairly obvious. Wii Fit Trainer is the only truly impressive prediction. That said, just one or two more correct, and I'll be a believer.
- - Relatively unknown among casuals
- - Series is very new, and not very high selling yet
- Shulk might not be in the sequel
- Competition with some other magic-using, sword-wielding, blond fantasy RPG protagonists
Shulk has some good points in his favor, but he also has some strong points against him. Earthbound got in because Sakurai's a fan, despite its low sales. Shulk could get in despite not being that big just because Sakurai likes it, or because Nintendo thinks X will be a big deal, etc. He'd be getting in at a lower level of sales than any series but Earthbound in Smash 64 (but obviously all the series lifetime sales were lower back then).
But Xenoblade Chronicles is, to me, one of Nintendo's best opportunities for a new, AAA IP in a while, one that appeals to gamers outside of their traditional demographic. It's been a long time since the SNES, when Nintendo was
the system for fans of RPGs. But now they can say that one of the best RPGs of the last generation was on Wii.
Anyway, in the end I think the good and the bad mostly even out, and Shulk has good, but not amazing chances.
Shulk chances: 55%
Points for want...
+ I liked Xenoblade Chronicles a lot
+ It has great music
+ The stage would be beautiful (They really should do an HD remaster for the Wii U... Satorl Marsh at night in HD would be pretty amazing)
+ Good AT opportunities too
- Shulk per se wasn't the reason I like Xenoblade Chronicles so much
- He has decent moveset potential, but he doesn't excite me on that front for whatever reason.
Shulk want: 70%
Mewtwo
Points for chance...
+ + Very highly requested worldwide
+ + More relevant than he's been in a long time with X & Y, his Mega Evolutions, etc.
+ Sakurai hinted at him before
+ Still popular and so forth
+ Psychic type not represented in current roster
+ Moveset could get an overhaul to fix any issues there might be with his
- There are only one or two Pokemon slots left. Seven Pokemon slots is, well...
possible but seems very very unlikely
- Sakurai seems to want to do more new things, and Pokemon is one of his best opportunities to shake up the roster - most of the other series have a very clear order of priority for characters
- Competition from other potential newcomers, Jigglypuff, Ivysaur and Squirtle. I don't think the latter two are much competition though. It's mostly Jigglypuff and another Pokemon newcomer.
- For some reason he feels a little similar to Lucario and Greninja... but this is a very minor point
Mewtwo chances: 70%
All in all, a lot of points in Mewtwo's favor, and while Greninja steps on his toes a bit, I don't think he disqualifies Mewtwo by any means. I'm definitely less confident about him though. I'm not sure bringing back Mewtwo appeals to Sakurai (who wants to do new things in Smash) as much as it does to the fans (who want no cuts, ever). That said, Mewtwo is still one of the most likely non-Brawl veterans out there.
Points for want...
+ Melee veteran, Gen 1 Pokemon
+ More deserving than most
+ Dat booty
- Found his moveset lackluster in Melee
- Was never that into him
Mewtwo want: 50%
I don't care much either way. As long as he doesn't take Jiggs's spot.
Predictions:
Pac-Man - 80%
Namco items are gonna be cited over and over
Mii - 64%
Slight boost from all the Mii-related stages, mitigated by some other things
Shulk: 100% Chance / 90% Want
Being in the Gematsu leak is a huge plus for him right now as it pretty much confirms him.
You don't think there's
any chance the leaker is fake but lucky, or that he's not telling the truth about everything, or he's not completely informed, etc.? None at all?
If the leak is real, he's 100% in.
So if you believe the leak, then you 100% believe the character is in.
You mean
if you 100% believe the leak.
You can believe the leak without being 100% confident in it. Personally, I wouldn't recommend it.