Rate Their Chances Day Sixty: Ashley Robbins and Ragna the BloodEdge

[Deleted member]

Zoroark says hi. There's really no denying that Zoroark is the new Lucario, they're both upright dog-type pokemon who were revealed very early as promotions for the new generation.

Anyway. I hope Zoroark doesn't make it in... Lucario has a cool design and is pretty popular all things considered. Zoroark has been seen as pretty underwhelming.

Victini or Genesect would at least add some different visual and fighter variety. I think if...

If We Lose --- We Should Get
Lucario --- Zoroark
Jigglypuff --- Victini
Mewtwo --- Genesect
Pkm Trainer --- Fifth Gen Trainer

All have parallels. If we don't lose anyone and Mewtwo doesn't come back I bet on Genesect. Otherwise we're getting similar characters.

How is Jigglypuff and Victini similar at all? Jigglypuff is a Normal-Type Pokemon whereas Victini is a Fire-Psychic Pokemon and they have different body structures. I agree that I don't want to see Zoroark in SSB4, not so much with Victini getting in if Jigglypuff loses his spot.

 

[Deleted member]

Ending poll now. Will get the next day up by around 8:30 PM CST.

 

[Lightosia]

Zoroark says hi. There's really no denying that Zoroark is the new Lucario, they're both upright dog-type pokemon who were revealed very early as promotions for the new generation.

Actually, Zoroark is a fox and illusions play a really big part on the character. The only similarity is that both had movies as a main character.

 

[Deleted member]

Both Lucario and Geno awaited their results anxiously as the people deliberated on their likeliness.

For Geno, it was definite, according to everyone, he was unlikely to be in SSB4, very unlikely, sporting an absolutely abysmal 9.5%. His want rate was at an neutral stance, at 3.17. As the interviewers went over to interview him, he was seen walking away, never to return to the same place where he believed he was shun.

As for Lucario, it was much more intense and more hostile. He ended up with a score of 53.08%, which while not great, was not terrible like Geno's either. Lucario had no idea of what to think of his likeliness score, although somewhat surprise his likeliness was a bit higher then expected, considering his worries about people downplaying him for a Pokemon newcomer.

Lucario did not leave the stage, but instead sit in the corner to view other characters go in and out, since he had nothing to do. Meanwhile, Donkey Kong and Andy ran to the stage, excited about what they could expect from the fans.

As I was the closest to predicting Lucario's score (I predicted 52.14%), I win five more veteran nominations. JavaCroc earns five more newcomer nominations for predicting 18%, the closest to Geno's overall score.

You can now predict the score Olimar and Black Knight get the next day. The likeliness of Donkey Kong and Andy can now be predicted. The poll closes at 8:00 PM CST.

 

[Starphoenix]

Donkey Kong is 100% coming back.

Andy... I'm going to give him 15%

Predictions:

Olimar 98.95%

Black Knight: 23.20%

 

[BKupa666]

Donkey Kong - 100%

.

Andy - 10%

I feel like people are beginning to cram an inordinately large number of characters from new series into their rosters, just because they're from new series. While new series are great and fairly rare, I'm guessing the characters from these series will be more suited to a fighting game, such as Little Mac, Takumaru and Saki, rather than a more behind-the-scenes commander.

Advance Wars could spawn great ATs or a stage, but I don't think Andy is likely in any way, shape or form.

 

[Barbasol]

DK, or rather, Donkey Kong. He's the leader of the bunch, and we know him well. I predict he'll be back, to kick some tail. DK - 100% Want Level- 3 Not much needs to be said there.


But Andy. You gave him, 15%, yo? You're about to be SET STRAIGHT, mon ami.

Weeeeeell, Andy is the most likely Commanding Officer to be featured from the Nintendo Wars/Advance Wars series. A long running franchise running 13 games from Fire Emblem developer Intelligent Systems.

With the 3DS getting a copy of Smash, Sakurai is bound to pay more attention to primarily handheld franchises. Advance Wars is one of those well-known to handheld gamers franchises. 15 games, all of the western releases have been universally praised often around 92% each. He also have engineering capabilities which opens up a whole new avenue for a moveset. This isn't even to mention the Battalion Wars spinoff of games.

So, I think 15% a bit.... off. I'm hitting up 48% and Want Level 5.

@SSBF - Well, Victini and Jigglypuff were both deliberately designed to appeal to female players. Similar small bodytypes.

Newcomers:
Tom Nook x5

Veterans:
Falco x5

Predict:
Olimar 97% (Dunno if he's guaranteed but w/e)
Black Knight 61%

 

[Alien Vision]

Donkey Kong|100%|Obvious - I don't need to monkey around with a blatant answer.

Andy|5%|Simply Improbable - Just no. I am entirely against the slightest thought of this idea.

Nominations

Veteran(s): Zelda x5

Newcomer(s): Rayman x5​

 

[Lightosia]

Donkey Kong

Anyone who doesn't give him a 100% is a troll.

100%

Andy

Advance Wars needs a rep, now! It's a big franchise (it still needs a new game for 3DS, though) that deserves some respect.
About his moveset, he uses a wrench and is a CO of an entire army, so he could be quite unique. Just look at Captain Falcon's moveset from Smash 64 and the fact that he is from a racing game.

60% 5-deserving

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Nominate (Veterans):
Lucas (x5)

Nominate (Newcomers) :
Phoenix Wright (x2)
Zoroark (x3)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Olimar- 90% ~~ Black Knight 33%

 

[Starphoenix]

DK, or rather, Donkey Kong. He's the leader of the bunch, and we know him well. I predict he'll be back, to kick some tail. DK - 100% Want Level- 3 Not much needs to be said there.


But Andy. You gave him, 15%, yo? You're about to be SET STRAIGHT, mon ami.

Weeeeeell, Andy is the most likely Commanding Officer to be featured from the Nintendo Wars/Advance Wars series. A long running franchise running 13 games from Fire Emblem developer Intelligent Systems.

With the 3DS getting a copy of Smash, Sakurai is bound to pay more attention to primarily handheld franchises. Advance Wars is one of those well-known to handheld gamers franchises. 15 games, all of the western releases have been universally praised often around 92% each. He also have engineering capabilities which opens up a whole new avenue for a moveset. This isn't even to mention the Battalion Wars spinoff of games.

So, I think 15% a bit.... off. I'm hitting up 48% and Want Level 5.

@SSBF - Well, Victini and Jigglypuff were both deliberately designed to appeal to female players. Similar small bodytypes.

Newcomers:
Tom Nook x5

Veterans:
Falco x5

Predict:
Olimar 97% (Dunno if he's guaranteed but w/e)
Black Knight 61%

The problem with Andy is he cannot do anything Snake has not already covered. On top of that he isn't even the latest CO (as that falls to Will). Granted, Days of Ruin never made it to Japan so it isn't as though Will is that far ahead of Andy. But in this case he just isn't relevant anymore. Nor is he all that unique or popular.

 

[Zap tackle]

Donkey Kong - 100%

I just can't envision Smash without DK. He's definitely notable, and coming back.

Want level - 3

Andy - 3 %

I too just don't see Andy happening.

Want level - 2

 

[Zap tackle]

(Double post -ignore this post).

 

[Deleted member]

Donkey Kong:

Will be returning, which I am 100% positive of.

Andy:

*Yawn*

He would represent a new franchise, but Advance Wars does not need a playable character, it is represented enough through being an Assist Trophy. Also, I think an Advance Wars rep would sound utterly boring to play with, so I don't care much about Andy getting in. In my eyes, he is Unwanted.

I think we'll see a few new franchises be represented, but he honestly is not one of the more likely characters at all. Famicom Wars is an important series, but it hasn't received a game since 2008, which didn't even come out in Japan, so the series is not very relevant.

Andy is definitely irrelevant. He has not had a new game since 2003 (2004 if you count the game releasing in Japan), not to mention he has only two games overall, so his importance to the series is overrated. He also has very low requests to be in SSB4. Sorry Barbasol, but you're truly one of the very few vocal supporters for his inclusion. Plus I don't think someone who usually sits behind a tank is going to be a good fighter in SSB4.

His chances are very poor and I really cannot see him making it in SSB4.

25%

Nominate (Veteran):
Fox (x10)

Nominate (Newcomers):
Victini (x1)
Saki Amamiya (x1)
Medusa (x1)
Takamaru (x1)
Paper Mario (x1)

Predicting that the Black Knight gets a 27.68%.

 

[Johnknight1]

Donkey Kong is a pure 100% lock.

I'll give Andy a 20% chance. I have a hard time seeing him in smash as a playable character (but he could be unique).

Want: 3

Predictions:
Captain Olimar: 100%

Black Knight: 12%. He's now an older villain, not a main character in a Fire Emblem game, and I like Roy's chances more, as well as any future Fire Emblem lord in any future Fire Emblem game)

Nominate (Veterans):
Lucas (x5)

Nominate (Newcomers) :
Rayman (x1)
Zoroark (x4)

 

[Deleted member]

@Johnknight01: You only get five nominations for newcomers and five nominations for veterans.

 

[JavaCroc]

Wow, I was a long ways off from Geno's score and still won. Well, I'll make good use of those nominations now.

Donkey Kong - 100%

If you can only take two characters from the entire Mario series (including it's sub-franchises), they would have to be Mario and Donkey Kong, because it was Donkey Kong that led to Mario's creation. Donkey Kong is even more of a lock than Pikachu, IMO, and Pikachu is guaranteed.

Obviously, he is deserving (5).

Andy - 40%

We can definitely use more new franchise reps in SSB4, but I don't think Andy will be one of them. First, his series is on hiatus currently (his latest game from 2008 didn't even release in Japan), and that impacts his relevance and importance. Second, as SSBFan pointed out, he only appeared in two games in the series in a major role - two is not enough to guarantee a character as the franchise rep. Third, he really isn't that popular in demands. And fourth, it would take some work to separate his moveset from other characters, since Snake covers most of the bases Andy would fill.

Andy has a chance for being a new franchise rep and representing a franchise larger than other competing franchises such as Starfy and Custom Robo. But his chances are unlikely at best, given the competition.

I personally would seriously prefer a generic "General" character to represent the Nintendo Wars franchise over Andy given his insignificance, but since I believe Nintendo Wars is deserving enough (but not necessarily likely enough) to get more representation, he's wanted (4) for me.

My Nominations:
Veterans
Falco x3
Wario x2

Newcomers
Jiro x5
Genesect x3
Balloon Fighter x2

My Predictions:
Black Knight - 52%

 

[Barbasol]

Plus I don't think someone who usually sits behind a tank is going to be a good fighter in SSB4.

I think that's a bit odd considering a F-Zero racer who sits behind a machine in his games is perceived as more of a fighter than someone who commands units in actual warfare scenarios?

The problem with Andy is he cannot do anything Snake has not already covered.

Oh, he has plenty of moveset potential. Just because he's in warfare scenarios means he'd be similar to Snake? What about Fox, Falco, Wolf, Samus, Captain Falcon, who are all space roaming mercenaries.

He can do things like call down airstrikes, plant turrets, etc. Plenty of options, I made a moveset a while back that was quite unique.

On top of that he isn't even the latest CO (as that falls to Will). Granted, Days of Ruin never made it to Japan so it isn't as though Will is that far ahead of Andy. But in this case he just isn't relevant anymore. Nor is he all that unique or popular.

Will's game wasn't all that well-received, and was in a totally different tone than the rest of the games. Never went to Japan... so... Consider Andy as sort of the Marth of the series. He's the first real CO.

Andy is definitely irrelevant. He has not had a new game since 2003 (2004 if you count the game releasing in Japan), not to mention he has only two games overall, so his importance to the series is overrated.

Bear in Mind Marth had two games, as did Ike. Marth hadn't had a new game since 1994 when Melee came out.

 

[Lightosia]

Andy was actually in THREE games.
Both Advance Wars for GBA and Advance Wars:Dual Strike for NDS.
Also, AW:DS is from 2005.

 

[Pseudomaniac]

Donkey Kong- 100%. No doubt.

Andy- 20%
FOR
-Rep from a new, popular series.
-Moveset potential.
AGAINST
-Competition from other new series (Golden Sun, Punch-Out!!, Sin & Punishment)
-Not popular among fans.
-Last appeared in 2005.

Nominations
Veterans: Falco [x2], Wolf, Toon Link, Lucas
Newcomers: Bowser Jr. [x5]

Prediction
Black Knight: 45%

 

[---]

D.K. - 100%

Andy - 10% (Advance Wars deserves some form of representation for Smash, but how a moveset would work is beyond me, a Advance Wars Stage and AT is much more likely than a character)

Since I won't be around to vote for a few days,

Prediction:
Black Knight - 70% (If I remember correctly, I read somewhere that he, Ike, Mia and Soren (other FE9-10 Characters) were mentioned by Sakurai in an interview for Brawl...)

 

[Deleted member]

If I remember correctly, I read somewhere that he, Ike, Mia and Soren (other FE9-10 Characters) were mentioned by Sakurai in an interview for Brawl...

Would be interesting if you could find it and link it here. Would it have anything to do with Super Smash Bros. and other potential Fire Emblem reps?

 

[Kantrip]

DK - 100%.

Andy - 20%. Others have stated the main points why his inclusion is not likely. Instead of spewing things that validate him as a character and why he deserves a spot, think about the purpose of this thread. This thread (to my knowledge) was made to get a fair concensus that we could use to gauge the probability of people being in the next smash. This means our votes should be based on Sakurai's criteria which, might I add, we do not know.

Ugh.

 

[Barbasol]

DK - 100%.

Andy - 20%. Others have stated the main points why his inclusion is not likely. Instead of spewing things that validate him as a character and why he deserves a spot, think about the purpose of this thread. This thread (to my knowledge) was made to get a fair concensus that we could use to gauge the probability of people being in the next smash. This means our votes should be based on Sakurai's criteria which, might I add, we do not know.

Ugh.

Unfortunately, that's based around the assumption that the two are mutually exclusive. I was bringing up reasons why people seem to be disregarding his chances while I thought it was more likely than expected.

 

[Kantrip]

The statement was less directed at you as it was the people you were responding to. They all brought up a bunch of useless reasons why they thought he shouldn't get a spot, and you invalidated all of them. Relevency, being similar to other characters, not being in a 2d platformer or a fighter game, none of these are valid when arguing agasint a character.

My reason for predicting low chances of Andy is that I don't believe the idea occured to Sakurai and I don't think he would believe he could work with the concept. Both of which I disagree with but, again, this isn't a popularity contest thread, but an attempt at realism.

 

[Kantrip]

Stupid gateway error double posts. Ignore this.

 

[Alien Vision]

The statement was less directed at you as it was the people you were responding to. They all brought up a bunch of useless reasons why they thought he shouldn't get a spot, and you invalidated all of them. Relevency, being similar to other characters, not being in a 2d platformer or a fighter game, none of these are valid when arguing agasint a character.

My reason for predicting low chances of Andy is that I don't believe the idea occured to Sakurai and I don't think he would believe he could work with the concept. Both of which I disagree with but, again, this isn't a popularity contest thread, but an attempt at realism.

^ It's double post heaven!

 

[~ Valkyrie ~]

DK: 100%


Andy: 40%

Nintendo Wars/Advance Wars could use more representation, and if they were able to make Captain Falcon as a fighter, then why not Andy?

But of course, there could be others representing the series than Andy. IMO, as it's quite hard to find a rep for this series, I suggest they treat the series like Animal Crossing in Brawl: give a stage, lots of trophies, and maybe one assist trophy. That should do the job.

I say he's Unwanted (2)

Nominations:

Newcomers:

x2 Bomberman
x2 Saki
x1 Lip

Veterans:

5x Jigglypuff

 

[Deleted member]

Would anyone have a problem if I were to extend Day Ten to 8:00 PM CST tomorrow due to the error to make up for lost time?

 

[finalark]

DK - 100% (He's one of the most famous Nintendo characters, it would be stupid to not include him)

Andy - 45% (Its not impossible, but I think we're more likely to see another Fire Emblem character over an Advance Wars character)

 

[finalark]

This post is a lie.

 

[Johnknight1]

Bear in Mind Marth had two games, as did Ike. Marth hadn't had a new game since 1994 when Melee came out.

Yes, but Marth was the only character to be a main character in two games in the series, and was easily the most popular. While I’ll admit Andy is probably more popular now than Marth was right before it was revealed he was going to be playable Melee, I gotta say the fact that he’s never stepped outside and physically fought hurts his chances. Sure, there are many characters in smash that have never physically fought or rarely do (Captain Falcon, Falco, Wolf), they are generally more well-known or have been a constant character in a series for longer as a main character.

Although I do think Andy would make a sweet character, and he could totally be unique. I just don’t see it being too likely.

 

[GreenMachine]

DK: 100% yadda yadda

Andy: 40%

The Wars series is a pretty longlasting one and indeed might merit a representative, the only problem being that Andy is the most prominent non-generic character though he hasn't appeared in a game for a while. I definitely wouldn't count him out, and wouldn't be totally surprised if he made it, but he's a long shot.

As to my personal preference I haven't played any of his games (in fact the only Wars game I've played is Battalion Wars) but I like his design enough to give him a 4 out of 5.

Oops, forgot about nominations. Ummm

Newcomers:
Tom Nook X2
Stanley The Bugman X1
Captain Syrup X1
Simon Belmont X1

Veterans:
Luigi X5

 

[Deleted member]

Poll has ended. Will get the next day at around 8:45 PM CST.

 

[Deleted member]

Donkey Kong was making a huge clash of noise that ran rampant throughout the entire room. It was in response to his happiness of receiving a perfect score in likeliness. After the announcement, he ran back to the jungle to tell his friends that he was going to make it to SSB4.

The news was not so energetic in Andy's case. He received a dismal 26.73% in likeliness, which destroyed his motivation for SSB4 and walked away in a gloomy mood. He only faintly heard the 3.11 score he got in terms of deserving.

People were much more excited about who was coming next, very anxious after a delay had to occur. Olimar and Black Knight walked in the rooms by two different door. One was a character who had appeared in SSB once and was hoping for a return, the other wanted to be playable for the very first time.

I was the closest to guessing Andy's score, therefore, I win five more newcomer nominations.

Lucas's and Zoroark's score can now be predicted based on what they get as an overall score tomorrow.

Olimar's and Black Knight's likeliness can now be rated.

 

[§witch]

Why do you keep choosing ******** newcomers? No one from advance wars or custom robo or whatever the **** will be in the next game.

 

[Alien Vision]

Olitard

50%

Not Wanted​

I cannot stand this bug-eyed mutant in a fighting game. His games were great, but this was just a wrong way to make a spin-off.

Dark Knight

75%

Wanted​

Now this is an interesting concept. Although I am sure there is plenty of competitive rivals who can earn the spot, this character definately has alot of potential. The only problem I really can see, is there are way too many sword-type characters.

Nominations

Pit x5

Rayman x5​

 

[Johnknight1]

@ Switch
It's based on who has the highest points that hasn't been chosen for each by the winner of each day. Just look at page 1 for details.

Olimar - 100%
With a sequel coming and Pikmin's success, why wouldn't he return? Every character who was the sole representative of their franchise has returned in Melee and Brawl. Plus he's totally unique and original. Even his strengths and weaknesses in Brawl were brand new, which was awesome!

Black Knight - 2%
He adds a villain factor, but Ridley, Bowser Jr., and whatnot are bigger names and have a lot more potential to be original. Plus his last game is like 6 years old.

Want: 2

Lucas - 60% (because of doubters)

Zoroark - 60% (best 5th generation Pokémon rep so far)

~Nominees~
Veteran: Falco (x5)
Newcomer: Balloon Fighter (x5)

 

[Alien Vision]

Why do you keep choosing ******** newcomers? No one from advance wars or custom robo or whatever the **** will be in the next game.

That wasn't SSBF. Lol. He is picking characters based off what people suggest.

Black Knight - 2%
He adds a villain factor, but Ridley, Bowser Jr., and whatnot are bigger names and have a lot more potential to be original. Plus his last game is like 6 years old.

How dare you.. You are more evil than all of them combined! SSBF better pick you for the next super villian in the game. So I can destroy you with god tierz.

 

[OmegaXXII]

Yay, I finally get to rate my favorite character who is The Black Knight! ^_^

Okay people, I will finally share my thoughts and chances over both Olimar and The Black Knight

Olimar: 95% (Probable)

Alright, seeing as Olimar has had his own franchise and series of games represented in Smash, I have no doubts that he will be returning, he was a very unique character and somehow managed to get in despite size arguments against him, why I rated him in such a way is because he wasn't a starter in Brawl, but overall he is more than likely to appear.

Verdict: Deserving

-----------------------------

The Black Knight: 72.99% (Considerable)

Okay, first off....

 

[Deleted member]

Olimar

Olimar is guarantee a spot in the next Smash. With a new game coming up, he is relevant enough to keep his spot, along with the fact he's available from the start.

100%

Black Knight

Not that I care if he gets into SSB4 or not, although he would be pretty interesting. Not interested enough to want him in, thought. I am Neutral on him.

He has a few things going for him. First off, if we get a third Fire Emblem character, chances are that he will show up. I've noticed that villains (Or at least ones that have played major antagonist roles at one point and are known for it) tend to comes third in a series, regardless of whenever or not the series has recurring protagonists or not. If this consistently continues, he should get the spot. Secondly, he is the only major recurring villain we have and is playable through part of Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn. So he does have a chance.

It's not a large one, though. He suffers from relevancy issues, with the last game he's appeared in being in February, 2007 and it's a serious one. Finally, very few if anyone are suggesting that he gets in SSB4 as a playable character. OmegaXVII is the only actively vocal supporter that I know of so far; others are very scare on the Internet. I'm not going to completely rule out his inclusion as he is possible, but there's not much hope for his inclusion.

30%

Prediction:

94.57% for Lucas, 78.56% for Zoroark.

Nominations (Veterans):
Fox (x5)

Nominations (Newcomers):
Victini (x1)
Saki Amamiya (x1)
Medusa (x1)
Takamaru (x1)
Paper Mario (x1)
Isaac (x1)
Krystal (x1)
Ryu Hayabusa (x1)
Bowser Jr. (x1)
Diddy and Dixie Kong (x1)