Rate Their Chances Day Sixty: Ashley Robbins and Ragna the BloodEdge

[Ganonsburg]

@Young Horsetail: Pikachu cannot be nominated, since he's On-DeckHere is the source you're looking for.

Thank you very much. That's very interesting.

 

[---]

Pikachu - 100%
Ray - 55%

 

[JavaCroc]

Pikachu - 98%

Pikachu is, beyond the Pokemon Trainer, the mascot of the Pokemon franchise - a franchise that is among the highest-selling and most popular. While it is nearly guaranteed, I left 2% off:

0.5% for Sakurai's crazieness

1.5% for the slim chance that Pikachu is changed into one of the Pokemon of a new Pokemon Trainer or a revision of the original Pokemon Trainer

I rate him 5, because we all know he's deserving.

Ray - 58.5%

Ray has the benefits of being a new franchise (for Smash Bros.), having potential for a unique moveset, and having just enough popularity to warrant a slot in SSB4. His cons, however, are the hiatus the series appears to be in (which negatively affects his relevance as a character), Sakurai's unpredictable mind (Ray as a clone of Megaman? Who knows?!?), and possible challenge between other combatants (Starfy, Isaac, etc.) for a spot as a "new franchise".

I don't see him as deserving, but I can see the potential he has as a combatant, so he is neutral (3) in my opinion.

My Nominations:
Veterans
Wario x3
Dr. Mario x2

Newcomers
Jiro x3
Tetris Block x2

My Predictions:
Lucario - 55%
Geno - 18%

 

[Deleted member]

@OmegaXVII: I'm curious, what would you have given Mega Man and Ness yesterday?

Pikachu

Guarantee to appear in SSB4. Another one in which you can bet the entire world on it's appearance on.

100%

Ray

This is my most wanted character from a series without a playable character yet from Nintendo. Ray has a lot of move set potentials and I would love for Nintendo to use him as he was meant to be in Smash; as a playable character. Definitely is deserving.

I'm not really sure on his chances, thought. There are some things backing him up for sure. There's the fact that he clearly has a lot of unique move set potentials and I cannot see him being a clone of anyone. Another thing supporting him is that he has received some support to be a playable character, so it's not like he has been completely forgotten. Furthermore, and this is what helps him best, his Assist Trophy clearly demostrates an example of how he would play as a playable character. From what I've seen, he clearly does the best job at this and Sakurai will probably consider him based off this. Custom Robo V2 was also released on the Virtual Console in 2009 in Japan, so that helps out in a minor way.

There are two major problems, thought. First off is that the series is on a hiatus, having not received a game since October, 2006, so he suffers from relevancy issues with the VC release of Custom Robo V2 being the only thing keeping him from being completely irrelevant. As such, he loses a lot of points. He may not also be seen as a quality franchise as the two games that did appear outside of Japan did not receive the greatest reviews. If Sakurai notice this, he may dismiss Ray based on not being all-star quality (Whereas with Sin & Punishment: Star Successor, it would help the chances of a second rep). Sadly, I don't see him making it in a 44-slot roster, although above is certainly possible.

So for now, until we get more information, I'm crossing my fingers in hopes that Ray makes it in as a playable character.

60%.

Nominate (Veteran):
Donkey Kong (x5)

Nominate (Newcomers):
Victini (x1)
Saki Amamiya (x1)
Medusa (x1)
Takamaru (x1)
Paper Mario (x1)

Predicting 52.14% for Lucario, 21.55% for Geno.

 

[Berserker.]

Pikachu 100% duh.

Ray 50%

 

[Alien Vision]

Pikachu (100%) (Solid) No words needed.

Ray (40%) (Not sure) He is a very tricky character to actually come up with a normal moveset. I've always questioned characters like the furries and their lazers. I can't see another character with a gun. I believe he would be very close to ROB, if he were to be interpreted into a playable character.

I nominate: Toon Link x5 (Veteran) Rayman x5 (NewComer)

 

[Deleted member]

@Alien Vision: You may not nominate Link, he has already been polled.

 

[OmegaXXII]

Alright guys, here are my nominations for veterans and newcomers.

Veterans:

•Ike (2x)
•Fox McCloud (2x)
•Pichu (1x)

Newcomers:

•The Black Knight (3x)
•Caeda (1x)
•Black Shadow (1x)

@OmegaXVII: I'm curious, what would you have given Mega Man and Ness yesterday?

Interesting you ask, I would have rated Megaman at 85% while Ness on the other hand would be at 96.99%, if you want me to state my reasons just ask.

 

[Deleted member]

@OmegaXVII: Alright, I'm interested in hearing. Also, adding your nominations now. I believe you have five more nominations for vets.

 

[Alien Vision]

@Alien Vision: You may not nominate Link, he has already been polled.

What are you talking about? I said Toon Link. .-.

 

[Deleted member]

What are you talking about? I said Toon Link. .-.

Ugh, sorry about that. Guess I wasn't really reading.

 

[TBone06]

Pikachu - 100% and deserving nuff said

Ray - 50%, popular unique, ATified, but will Sakurai put him in. I'm not sure despite a totally different character that could be very neat

5 for Fox
5 for Medusa

 

[Disfunkshunal]

Pikachu-100%
Ray 33.3%

I predict lucario will be around 42% and geno around 25%

Toon Link x5
Bomberman x5

 

[Barbasol]

Pikachu- 100% One of the biggest characters in all of gaming. Want level 4

Ray ~62% : Custom Robo is one of those possible additions for Sm4sh, and Ray has plenty of unique potential. I'd say Custom Robo is deserving and would make a great addition, but it's likely it might be passed over for more series reps instead...

Veteran:
Olimar x5

Newcomer:
Andy x1
Duck Hunt Dog x4


Predict:
Lucario ~ 54%
Geno ~34%

 

[Alien Vision]

Ugh, sorry about that. Guess I wasn't really reading.

Rofl. I am just messing with you. I edited the post. LOL

 

[~ Valkyrie ~]

Pikachu: 100%. He's like Mario.

To the real part then:

Ray: 61%

I see he's quite unique, wanted, and maybe including him in SSB4 míght save CR from it's hiatus status. (-lvl-)
In fact, in means of his current status, he's like fit to SSB4: he's not that well known, but somewhat still popular. (-lbl-)

Though it's kinda hard for me to see him added, Sakurai might easily overlook 'im.

I say he's Wanted, (4)

Nominating:

Newcomers:

1x Lip

2xTakamaru

2x Dixie Kong

Veterans:
2x Yoshi

2x Samus

1x Kirby.

 

[OmegaXXII]

@OmegaXVII: Alright, I'm interested in hearing. Also, adding your nominations now. I believe you have five more nominations for vets.

I do lol..?

Okay then add these for my veteran nominations as well:

*Bonus*
Veterans:

•Pokemon Trainer (2x)
•Sonic (2x)
•Ike (1x)

here is the overall likeness I think will result for the "on-deck" characters:

Lucario: (60%)
Geno (65%)

*Note: these are NOT my personal predictions whatsoever

 

[finalark]

Pikachu - 100% (he's the mascot of one of the best selling franchises of all time, of course he'll be in)

Ray - 10% (Custom Robo is pretty unknown in most countries and doesn't even have that much popularity in Japan)

 

[Deleted member]

Late, but ending poll now. Expect the new day to dawn around 9:30 PM CST.

 

[Deleted member]

Ray ran up the stage to see the overall score he was given. He would be greatly disappointed to see what he ended up with; a mediocre 48.06% percentage in likeliness. Although he got a deserving rate of 4.25, he walked away, looking down, wondering why people were so doubtful of his chances.

Pikachu ran straight onto the stage shortly afterward and the result was unanimous, he had a fantastic chance of being in SSB4. He scored an amazing 99.85% percentage, no one had any doubts about his appearance. He was ecstatic, so much so that he accidentally electrocuted Ray, although he never noticed.

Mysteriously and without notice, Lucario and Geno appeared on stage, stern and expecting good results. But the question is, will they get what they desire?

Lightosia was the closest with predicting 49%. He wins five more newcomer nominations.

You can now predict the score Andy get the next day.

Lucario and Geno likeliness can now be predicted, with my analysis coming later tonight. Poll ends at 8:00 PM CST tomorrow.

 

[Barbasol]

Lucario ~ 57%: The competition is utterly vicious in the Pokemon franchise, and Lucario is anything but immune. He is probably first on the chopping block of the pokemon roster. Will he go the way of Mewtwo? Will he be nothing but a poster boy for Gen 4? With generation 5 here and strong, it's possible that Victini/Zoroark/Genesect will slam in and usurp the steel fighter.

Want Level- 3

Geno ~ 14% Geno is one of those niche characters whose supporters are VERY vocal, but noone outside of who played Mario RPG even cares about him. Aside from the fact he'd be a third-party addition, there's no real draw in adding Geno to the game. He's not the sort of licensing deal that brings in sales. Want level- 1.

Predicting Andy rolls in on his Megatank at 51%
----

Veteran:
Olimar x5

Newcomer:
Black Knight x2
Duck Hunt Dog x1
Sukapon x2

 

[Deleted member]

@Barbasol: We are rating Geno and Lucario today, not DK. Sorry for not making this clear.

 

[Deleted member]

Lucario

Pokemon will likely gain five slots in SSB4, if we're lucky, six slots. As such, unlike Mewtwo, Lucario actually has a chance of staying and really, he shouldn't go away. He can fight decently and he represent the fourth generation. I'm hoping that the team goes for variety and keeps Lucario in.

What makes me really worried about his chances is that he has the huge threat of Zoroark replacing him, which I am 100% against having in the game. If Pokemon gets only four slots, as much as I hate to say this, Lucario is definitely getting the boot. If Pokemon gets five slots, he has a chance of staying, but he is still in danger of being replaced. However, while not guarantee, they are not completely thrown away.

We have to remember that there is no pattern for replacement yet in Pokemon franchises. This has only happened once and despite what other people say, Lucario did not replace Mewtwo, Mewtwo simply got dropped. As such, we cannot automatically assume that Lucario is facing the axe just because a 5th gen has arrived. Secondly, as I've said before, I think Mewtwo's sub-standard fighting in Melee contributed to his removal. Lucario does not have the same problem and I doubt Sakurai will just disregard Lucario. Furthemore, I don't think relevancy plays a part in veteran characters staying in, so I can't see that happening either. Most importantly, what if Victini gets in instead of Zoroark? There will be no reason to replace Lucario and as such, he will stand a much higher chance of getting in.

I really hope Lucario stays for SSB4. Gen Four should not be forgotten just because it's time has passed and it would show that Gen One and Gen Five aren't the only gens Pokemon fans should know. There is no reason to drop Lucario. Unfortunately, Zoroark exist and with him being a likely addition, things are not looking good.

50%

Geno

Having played Super Mario RPG: Legends of the Seven Stars, I will say that Geno has a lot of move set potentials that should be recognized and despite his obscurity, I would have no qualms seeing him taking the fifth slot. I vote Wanted.

However, his best shot was in Brawl and since he didn't even get a sticker, the chances of him getting in as a playable character is very low. The only thing he has going for him is popularity among the Smash community and the fact that the game he was in was very successful on the Virtual Console, keeping him slightly relevant; but these are why we will probably never get a playable Geno.

First off, he is, as I've pointed out before, is incredibly obscure. His only major role was in the game that I've mentioned beforehand. Otherwise, he only had a cameo in 2003 which was skippable. Secondly, he is owned by Square Enix, meaning there would be legal issues that would need to be cleared to get him in SSB4. Considering his obscurity, I heavily doubt Nintendo would take the time to solve them. There's also the fact that fans made no attempt to get him into other Square Enix-Nintendo games, which really would have helped his relevancy and chances for SSB4. Lastly, his popularity has declined significantly since SSBB. He still has considerable support, but they were no longer among the Top Five levels as they were back in the day. Fans have given up on him and for good reasons.

He isn't impossible, but it's time for Geno fans to admit this; his chances are really that bad and it's time to move on.

20%

Predict 32.14% for Andy.

Nominate (Veteran):
Olimar (x5)

Nominate (Newcomer):
Victini (x1)
Saki Amamiya (x1)
Medusa (x1)
Takamaru (x1)
Paper Mario (x1)

 

[JavaCroc]

Lucario - 60%

Let's face it - as Barbasol said, competition for a fifth or even just the fourth Pokemon slot is fierce. Zoroark, Victini, Genesect, and many more possibilities (Deoxys for a 3rd-Gen Rep? A new Pokemon Trainer?) are all competing alongside Lucario for a spot. Given the similarities between Zoroark and Lucario, one could guess that Zoroark will replace Lucario to represent the latest generation of Pokemon - which was Lucario's job in Brawl.

However, not all is bad for Lucario.

Firstly, there really aren't much similarities between Zoroark and Lucario if you play the games. Sure, they're both bipedal and furry, but Zoroark is a Dark Pokemon with illusion abilities (such as assuming the form of other Legendary Pokemon) while Lucario is an Aura Pokemon.

Secondly, the theory that Lucario replaced Mewtwo is simply false. Mewtwo's partial programming data in Brawl shows he was intended to be in Brawl - and he was in further progress as a playable character than the rest of the Forbidden Seven, given the discoveries of his Classic Mode screen and victory fanfare. In addition, why don't people ever consider the possibility that Lucario replaced Pichu to represent the latest generation? Because Mewtwo and Lucario are slightly (read: slightly) similar to each other? IMO, Mewtwo was simply dropped - he wasn't replaced by anyone.

And third, he simply does not need to go. He has a unique moveset. He could represent the "middle" generations of Pokemon. He's ready to import into SSB4 with little need for changes other than character balancing.

Lucario isn't safe - we're all aware he is the most likely to get axed. But when it comes down to it, I'd prefer the Pokemon roster be left as it is if necessary, because there is no reason Lucario should go.

How deserving is Lucario? In my eyes, even though his generation of Pokemon will be outdated, he has no reason to go. Consider him 4 and wanted in my perception.

Geno - 15%

Hate to break it to you, Geno fans, but I don't think Geno is a viable nor a deserving choice for SSB4. He had one major game appearance and that's it (I don't count cameos); that impacts his relevance and importance to gaming and Nintendo. His popularity will probably never reach it's peak levels since Geno efforts failed in SSBB.

The only things that give Geno his slim chance as what SSBFan has said: his continued (albeit decreased) popularity and his game's success on the Virtual Console. But I don't think a remake or popularity among a portion in the SSB community is going to be enough.

However, since I'm never really against character inclusions - no matter how unlikely or undeserving I think they are -, he at least is neutral (3) for me.

My Nominations:
Veterans
Lucas x3
Dr. Mario x2

Newcomers
Genesect x3
Jiro x2

My Predictions:
Andy - 45%

 

[Deleted member]

In addition, why don't people ever consider the possibility that Lucario replaced Pichu to represent the latest generation?

Very good point and I'm glad you brought that up. It is also something I believe in and also gives me more hope in Victini's inclusion, even if Lucario is dropped.

And third, he simply does not need to go. He has a unique moveset. He could represent the "middle" generations of Pokemon. He's ready to import into SSB4 with little need for changes other than character balancing.

Lucario isn't safe - we're all aware he is the most likely to get axed. But when it comes down to it, I'd prefer the Pokemon roster be left as it is if necessary, because there is no reason Lucario should go.

I wouldn't say most likely, since I don't consider 60% to be most likely for a character to be cut and it's unpredictable how it could go. Other then that, I totally agree. With the likelihood of five slots, I would kind of like if they kept the four we have in Brawl and add in a 5th Gen Pokemon as a newcomer. Pokemon IMO deserves five slots and like Mario, is due for one. I would be very sad to see Lucario be axed to make room for Zoroark. We will have to see, thought, and hopefully, the developers will realize that dropping the new Pokemon character after one installment in Smash is not a good way to represent Pokemon at all.

 

[Alien Vision]

Lucario|20%|Slim Chance - I really liked Lucario as a playable character. He had a great moveset that fit my playstyle to a T. I doubt he'll be renewed, but I do hope he makes it in somehow.

Geno|0%|Error - I am pretty sure I've heard somewhere that Geno is not allowed to be implimented due to copywrite issues. I would give him a solid 80%, and a warm welcome to my nominations if this wasn't the case.

Nominations

Veterans: Zelda x5

Newcomers: Rayman x5​

 

[Zap tackle]

Lucario - 5 %

I really don't see Lucario returning. Even if he did, we would need to have an extra slot for the new Pokemon that will undeniably be entering as a newcomer. I have a feeling that he would be planned, but then cut out in order to have a balanced amount of reps for the Pokemon series.

In terms of deserving, I'd give him a 2.

Geno - 0 %

I honestly don't see Geno becoming a newcomer. He is just too irrelevant and is also not even owned by Nintendo for the most part. He only appeared in one Mario game (plus 1 cameo) and has been forgotten since. Toad, Jr., and Paper Mario all make better reps as they are recurring characters and are at least important to Nintendo and Mario series' history.

 

[Deleted member]

......................

 

[Deleted member]

I am pretty sure I've heard somewhere that Geno is not allowed to be implimented due to copywrite issues.

Alright, do share with us.

Also, if you want more nominations then five, you should try to get involved in predicting the score for On Deck candidates that can have their scores predicted (All newcomers and certain veterans).

 

[Alien Vision]

I can barely recall the information. Something to do with Square Enix owning Geno not Nintendo.

Predictions

Donkey Kong|99%|

Andy|40%|
​

 

[Deleted member]

@Zap tackle: Do you think Lucario will be more plausible in the chance a fifth slot for Pokemon opens up or were you assuming the series gets five slots?

I can barely recall the information. Something to do with Square Enix owning Geno not Nintendo.

Predictions

Donkey Kong|99%|

Andy|40%|
​

You are correct, Square Enix does own Geno, which makes his chances grim, but I have yet to see either companies confirm that Geno will never be playable in SSB4. He is certainly unlikely, but not confirmed impossible.

 

[---]

Lucario - 70%
He already one of the most unique movesets in Smash due to his Aura that could never be replaced by any new character. Which means he's very deserving.

Is the 3rd most popular Pokemon who appears in Smash after Charizard and Mewtwo in and is the 32nd most popular Pokemon in the series in terms of the fans (even beats Pikachu who is 48th).

His only real competition is against Mewtwo who is more popular in everyway and Zoroark who is a popular Gen. 5 Pokemon but is only 68th most popular over all.

Other Pokemon I've seen people ask for like Victini, Meowth, and Genesect, are no competition. They are not as popular with Pokemon fans in actually, the 2 former will most likely be in Pokeballs, the latter will never appear until Nintendo does an event which will most likely come out after SSB4.

My guess is they will keep the Brawl roster and for a newcomer add Zoroark or Mewtwo with a new moveset.

Link to list to most popular Pokemon Survey: http://www.ign.com/top/pokemon

Geno - 5% (His popularity has fallen, not very deserving, has only appeared in 1 game, Nintendo won't go out of their way just to put him in)

 

[Berserker.]

Lucario 50% - his chances are unknown but I'm not against his removal

Geno 0.5% or 1% (0%) to put it that way - He's hopeless. He's not important to either sqaure or nintendo. What makes his chances worse is the fact that he's a third party. Sorry hoots

I predict...

Donkey Kong 100%

Andy 40%

 

[Pseudomaniac]

Lucario- 60%
FOR
-Appeared in Brawl.
-Has a unique moveset.
AGAINST
-Competition against more relevant Pokemon characters.
-Most likely veteran to be axed.

Geno- 1%
FOR
-Cult following.
-Moveset potential.
AGAINST
-Is a Mario character owned by a third party. If Square allows a character in the game it will likely be a character from their own franchises.
-Only appeared in 1 game (excluding rereleases\cameos).
-Competition from more popular Mario characters (Toad, Bowser Jr., Paper Mario) AND Square Enix characters (Chocobo, Slime, White\Black Mage).
-Best chance to get in was Brawl, and he didn't even cameo as a sticker or trophy.

Nominations
Vetereans: Falco [x2], Wolf [x2], Lucas
Newcomers: Bowser Jr. [x3], Paper Mario [x2]

 

[Hoots]

Geno - 20% likelihood. 5 want. Huge moveset potential cult following, Sakurai's awareness, and revitalized success of SMRPG on the VC are all valid reasons for his inclusion. However, there's all that stuff everyone else said.

Lucario - 75% chance likelihood. Lucario is established and popular and gis aura mechanic was unique. However, he is no longer the flavor of the month.

5 noms for Tom Nook.

 

[JavaCroc]

I wouldn't say most likely, since I don't consider 60% to be most likely for a character to be cut and it's unpredictable how it could go. Other then that, I totally agree. With the likelihood of five slots, I would kind of like if they kept the four we have in Brawl and add in a 5th Gen Pokemon as a newcomer. Pokemon IMO deserves five slots and like Mario, is due for one. I would be very sad to see Lucario be axed to make room for Zoroark. We will have to see, thought, and hopefully, the developers will realize that dropping the new Pokemon character after one installment in Smash is not a good way to represent Pokemon at all.

Well, out of all the Brawl characters, he has the greatest risk of getting the axe, but as a character himself, I think he has enough of a chance to make it into SSB4.

Honestly, while I wouldn't mind Victini or Genesect for a fifth Pokemon slot, I'd like to see both Lucario and Zoroark make it. That way, you could show that they are not just replacements for each other by giving both of them unique movesets.

Also, you could group them together in an Event Match against Fox and Wolf and call it "Fight of the Furry Franchises".

 

[GreenMachine]

Lucario - 60% Pokemon chances are pretty hard to parse, but Lucario seems to be popular enough to merit a comeback although he faces stiff competition from other hominid Pokemon. I'd personally give him a 3 out of 5, neutral, as I skipped 4th generation pokemon and honestly have little understanding of his importance to the series, though his moveset is unique.

Geno - 5% If the stars align Geno has a chance, but otherwise no way. 3 out of 5, neutral.

 

[finalark]

Lucario - 65% (He has popularity, but seeing how Gen 5 came out chances are he will be replaced by Zoroark. However, another possibility is that Trainer will be cut and Lucario put in his place)

Geno - 15% (I know that he's wanted, but I recall him being owned by Square from the Brawl speculation days. It just boils down to if Square will let him be used).

 

[Lightosia]

Lol, when I couldn't enter SWF (I was in a tourney for all day), I get the prediction...

Lucario

He is probably one of the newcomers that has the most chance of getting the cut.
Assuming Pokémon Trainer stays in and counting him as 3 characters, the Pokémon franchise would have SEVEN characters (A newcomer from Gen 5 is almost sure). He is still quite popular, however he enters in Mewtwo's case(Mewtwo is actually more popular than him)
Lucario is a nice rep of Gen 4 and is a unique character with his aura. No one in Gen 5 is like him. I really hope he doesn't get cut.


65%-5(deserving)

Geno

Ow well, it's 2006 all again! One of the most voted characters in that Sakurai pool. He is surely popular and would have a cool moveset (If you played SMRPG you get the idea).
His biggest problem is that he is a secondary character owned from a 3rd party company.
If Square-Enix is contacted to add a newcomer, they would add a Final Fantasy or a Dragon Quest character.

His chances are really slim. Sorry, Geno fans.

19% 3-neutral

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Nominate (Veterans):
Lucas (x5)


Nominate (Newcomers) DOUBLE SUN POWER OHHHHHH:
Phoenix Wright (x4)
Zoroark (x6)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Andy- 47%

 

[Barbasol]

Lucario is a nice rep of Gen 4 and is a unique character with his aura. No one in Gen 5 is like him. I really hope he doesn't get cut.
[/b]

Zoroark says hi. There's really no denying that Zoroark is the new Lucario, they're both upright dog-type pokemon who were revealed very early as promotions for the new generation.

Anyway. I hope Zoroark doesn't make it in... Lucario has a cool design and is pretty popular all things considered. Zoroark has been seen as pretty underwhelming.

Victini or Genesect would at least add some different visual and fighter variety. I think if...

If We Lose --- We Should Get
Lucario --- Zoroark
Jigglypuff --- Victini
Mewtwo --- Genesect
Pkm Trainer --- Fifth Gen Trainer

All have parallels. If we don't lose anyone and Mewtwo doesn't come back I bet on Genesect. Otherwise we're getting similar characters.