Rate And Discuss Their Chances: Closed

[Opossum]

Case Number 5438



Smash Stadium.

6:40 PM EDT/EST

September 12, 2012.


The night was cool. Not a single thing went awry in the rest of the world of video games.

...No one expected a murder.



It was here that Mr. Stevenson was last seen. Being an old man, he was an easy target. Kind of ironic that I was chosen to document the supposed murder of a detective. No one was sure what went wrong.


After interviewing some witnesses, I found out that Mr. Stevenson was brutally beaten when he entered the stadium. His want score was piece of evidence number one. It only wound up a 0.29. Clearly he didn't belong here...poor guy. My second piece of evidence was the likelihood. Warning, it is not for the faint of heart...the guy had a likelihood of 0.1. Finally, five pieces of paper, labeled: "5 Nominations for MelMoe" were found at the scene of the crime.

Some eyewitnesses reported that they spotted Mr. Stevenson fleeing instead of being murdered...so this case is still unsolved. The only problem? No one in the stadium seemed to care enough to find out.


Guy with the Opossum, out.

...​

The new day came, and with it, a strange boy with Mechanical wings, a laser sword, lightning powers, PSI, a Shield Breaker, and an Arm Cannon came to the stage. No one seemed to know whether to conceal the boy's identity or not, so they called him the Masked Man, despite being a boy.



It is now Day 48. You may vote on Masked Man's likelihood and want and predict the score for Mach Rider tomorrow. Samurai Goroh is up for revoting.


Lists below:

[COLLAPSE="Nominations:"]
x75 Dr. Mario
x64 Shy Guy
x63 Ike
x61 M. Bison
x59 Lip
x52 Groose
x50 Kalas
x49 Sonic
x41 Jigglypuff
x40 Lucina
x40 Demise (alt. costume for Ganondorf)
x38 Snake
x35 Vaati
x35 Mike Jones
x34 Leon Powalski
x34 King Hippo
x31 Bandanna Dee
x30 Baby Mario & Luigi
x29 Medusa
x29 Tingle
x28 Funky Kong
x23 Andy
x22 Black Mage
x21 Alexandra Roivas
x21 Balloon Fighter
x20 Meowth
x19 Duck Hunt Dog
x18 Kamek
x17 Hades
x14 Captain A
x14 Pichu
x13 Prince Sable
x12 Dillon
x11 Impa
x10 Adam Malkovich
x10 Shadow the Hedgehog
x10 Daisy
x9 Sheriff
x9 KOS-MOS
x8 Travis Touchdown
x8 King Boo
x8 Scizor
x8 Nightmare (Soul Calibur)
x6 Pokemon Trainer
x6 Diskun
x5 Palutena (Revote)
x5 Animal Crosser
x5 Dr. Mario (alt costume)
x5 Deoxys
x4 Caeda
x4 K K Slider
x3 Toon Zelda
x3 Meta Knight
+3 Mewtwo (Revote)
x3 Black Knight
x3 Dry Bowser (alternate costume)
x2 Slime
x2 Dark Samus (Revote)
x2 Majora's Mask Link
x2 Genesect
x2 Zero Suit Samus
x2 Leaf (Fire Emblem)
x1 Birdo
x1 Zero (Mega Man)
x1 Young Link
x1 Ninten
x1 Micaiah
x1 Ivy (Soul Caliber)
x1 Morrigan (Darkstalker)
x1 Chaos (Sonic the Hedgehog)
x1 Shake King
x1 Terra Bradford
x1 Prince Fluff
x1 Tails
x1 Shadow
x1 Victini
x1 Hoenn Pokemon Trainer
x1 Magnus
x1 Ayumi Tachibana
x1 Pac Man
x1 Fawful
[/COLLAPSE]




[COLLAPSE="Results"]Veterans:
1. Mario (5)
2. Luigi (5)
3. Peach (5)
4. Bowser (5)
5. Donkey Kong (5)
6. Diddy Kong (5)
7. Yoshi (5)
8. Wario (5)
9. Link (5)
10. Zelda (5)
11. Samus (5)
12. Kirby (5)
13. King Dedede (5)
14. Fox (5)
15. Pikachu (5)
16. Captain Falcon (5)
17. Pit (5)
--------------------------------------------
18. Ganondorf (4.98 in likelihood, 4.73 in want)
19. Ice Climbers (4.98 in likelihood, 4.58 in want)
20. Olimar (4.96 in likelihood, 4.52 in want)
21. Ness (4.94 in likelihood, 4.64 in want)
22. Marth (4.84 in likelihood, 4.55 in want)
23. R.O.B. (4.73 in likelihood, 4.15 in want)
24. Lucario (4.27 in likelihood, 4.34 in want)

Newcomers:
Top Ten:
1. King K. Rool (4.24 in likelihood, 4.36 in want)
2. Palutena (4.12 in likelihood, 3.65 in want)
3. Ridley (4.01 in likelihood, 4.19 in want)
4. Mewtwo (4.01 in likelihood, 4.17 in want)
5. Little Mac (3.8 in likelihood, 3.55 in want)
6. Takamaru (3.65 in likelihood, 3.14 in want)
7. Saki Amamiya (3.42 in likelihood, 3.59 in want)
8. Shulk (3.42 in likelihood, 3.05 in want)
9. Samurai Goroh (3.41 in likelihood, 3.44 in want)
10. Isaac (3.33 in likelihood, 3.62 in want)
--------------------------------------------
11. Zoroark (3.29 in likelihood, 2.52 in want)
12. Mega Man (3.18 in likelihood, 3.79 in want) (Capcom)
13. Roy (3.03 in likelihood, 3.33 in want)
14. Dixie Kong (2.96 in likelihood, 2.67 in want)
15. Krom (2.92 in likelihood, 2.35 in want)
16. Bowser Jr. (2.78 in likelihood, 2.75 in want)
17. Toad (2.74 in likelihood, 2.85 in want)
18. Krystal (2.42 in likelihood, 2.21 in want)
19. Muddy Mole (2.4 in likelihood, 3.03 in want)
20. Starfy (2.32 in likelihood, 2.74 in want)
21. Paper Mario (2.28 in likelihood, 2.88 in want)
22. Mii (2.25 in likelihood, 2 in want)
23. Ghirahim (2.23 in likelihood, 2.77 in want)
24. Waluigi (2.09 in likelihood, 2.2 in want)
25. Dark Samus (1.91 in likelihood, 2.28 in want)
26. Black Shadow (1.72 in likelihood, 1.99 in want)
27. Chibi-Robo (1.63 in likelihood, 2.71 in want)
28. Ray (1.34 in likelihood, 2.94 in want)
29. Lyndis (1.1 in likelihood, 1.93 in want)
30. Plusle & Minun (1.04 in likelihood, 1.12 in want)
31. Geno (0.98 in likelihood, 2.46 in want)
32. Lloyd Irving (0.97 in likelihood, 1.59 in want) (Namco Bandai)
33. Rosalina (0.84 in likelihood, 2.4 in want)
34. Skull Kid (0.64 in likelihood, 2.22 in want)
35. Tom Nook (0.53 in likelihood. 2.04 in want)
36. Sukapon (0.48 in likelihood, 2.18 in want)
37. Anna (0.47 in likelihood, 0.9 in want)
38. Yoshimitsu (0.35 in likelihood, 1.05 in want) (Namco Bandai)
39. Mr. Stevenson (0.1 in likelihood, 0.29 in want) [/COLLAPSE]

 

[ShadowSmasher98]

now Dr. Mario is winning :3

 

[Deleted member]

Masked Man:

Want: 3
Would I like to see him? Yes. Just not as much as Porky or less-than-likely Flint.

Likelihood: 2
Of Mother characters, he is arguably the most likely (unless Sakruai finds a way to make Porky playable). However, Mother isn't too terribly likely to get a Newcomer.

 

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

I put Claus's likelihood at a 1.5. While I'm not entirely familiar with the EarthBound franchise, it has come to a standstill at this time. Because of this, I'm not really expecting another EarthBound rep to enter the fray.

 

[Opossum]

Claus

Want: 3

I like him, and if I were to personally pick a new Mother rep, it'd be him or Porky.

Likelihood: 1.9

I don't find a Mother rep too likely, although he is a strong choice for one.

Predicting a 2.98 for Mach Rider

Nominating Jigglypuff x5

 

[lobotheduck21]

dang, i expect mr. stevenson to get destroyed, but jeez

anyway claus

want 2.5: haven't played mother 3 so

likely hood 1.5: a 3 game series that hasn't had a game in japan in along time (let alone the u.s.) get three characters, I don't see it happening

nominations, baby bros x 5

prediction: 2.5

 

[SmashShadow]

Want:5 just loved the storyline surrounding him

Likelihood: 2.35 While lucas may have lowered his chances for the # of reps he might not have hurt it too much seeing as he is his the main enemy that game and is his...you know what. I see him as the most likely 3rd rep if we ever get any. Not to mention previous to brawl he was pretty wanted.

Mach Rider: 2.43

5x Vaati

 

[Venus of the Desert Bloom]

Claus was one of my most wanted newcomers for SSBB. While he has gone on the wayside for newer wanted newcomers, I feel he would be a welcomed addition to Smash 4. He has both powerful sword techniques, a powerful arm cannon, flight capability, shields, and even PSI powers. Basically, he'd be a Samus/Meta Knight/Lucas/Ness hybrid. That would be both amazing and frightening. However, Mother has finished and not recent games have been released since 2006. While the Earthbound/Mother series has a lot of good characters to add, it is a relatively small series that is enjoyed by diehard fans. However, it is relatively unknown by the community at large. I can easily see Claus being pushed out for more likely newcomers. As well, I am unsure if Mother deserves a third rep. If, by some odd strange reason, Donkey Kong Metroid, and Fire Emblem do not receive a 3rd newcomer rep but Mother does, the Earthbound series would have a bigger hold on the roster than the previously mentioned franchises. Therefore, I think there should be a focus to expand larger franchises that are under-represented. I feel Earthbound/Mother is fine with two reps.

However, Sakurai doesn't necessarily look at franchise representation except for Mario. He may see the potential that Claus has and include him. Despite that, Claus' game was in 2006 and therefore falls out of relevancy. Technically speaking, his beat shot was in SSBB. However, he only appeared as a sticker.

While an excellent choice with great potential, his franchise has finished and hasn't had a new installment for a long time, missed his chance in SSBB, and loses to more popular and anticipated newcomers from under-represented franchises.

For Claus;
Want: 3.9
Likeliness: 1.6

Mach Rider's Prediction: 2.8

Noms: M. Bison x3
Toon Zelda x2

 

[Pichu4SSB4]

Want: 3
While he's an awesome character, i rather have another rep from the Mother series such as Ninten or Pokey Minch.

Likelihood: 1.99
He's most likely not going to happen, even if Mother does get a new rep i doubt it's going to be him.

Mach Rider: 2.99
Since more retro characters are getting added to the roster there is a slight chance.

Omnomominations: ichu: 3x Ninten 2x

 

[Robert of Normandy]

Masked Man
Want: 3
I think Mother has just fine representation. I f we wer to get a new Mother rep, I feel it should be from the first game. That said, MM would be kinda interesting, given his laser blade and other abilities that could set him apart from the other Mother reps.
Likelihood: 1.5
He isn't that well known, and most people probably think Mother already has more than enough representation.

Prediction for Mach Rider: 3.21

Nominations:
Doc Mario x3
Bandana Dee x2

 

[DakotaBonez]

I'd rather have Claus over Lucas. Or ya know maybe a costume reprezentin Claus for Lucas.

 

[BKupa666]

Want and Likelihood: 0.66

Where have we seen Claus requests again? He doesn't have the fan support to overcome his lack of recent appearances. He is also from a miniscule three game series that has been completed (read: not died, since dead series have the potential for a new installment), and has no one but fanboys claiming it deserves more than it already has in Smash. It came away from Brawl with quite a healthy bit of content, lack of more awesome music aside.

Not to count this as a strike against him, but I'd also prefer Porky get a third slot if it ever, for some reason, went to Mother, since he's not only recurring, but awesome in SSB Crusade.

Hey, there's an idea...Nominate Porky x5

Predicting 2.78 for Mach Rider

 

[---]

Want: 1.5
Likeliness: 1

I'm not really interested in him at all. Like most people I don't think Mother is getting another rep.

x5 Ike

 

[DMurr]

Want: 4.5
Likeliness: 1.25

Claus is pretty awesome, and I love Mother 3. I think the dynamic of Lucas v. Claus is much more interesting than Ness & Lucas. I would be fine if they cut Ness and added Claus, although I do really like Ness, and the likelihood of him leaving is relatively low. I think it'd be cool to have another Mother 3 character, but I'd rather it be Claus than Flint, Duster, Kumatora, etc. While Mother is a series that is seemingly not going to have another new entry, I would not be opposed to continuing to add more representation from it. Sakurai seems to like it too. If I'm right, he worked a little bit on Mother 3, so we will probably see more from it.

I nominate Balloon Fighter x5.

 

[Ember Reaper]

Want: 4.9 One of my most wanted
Likelihood: 2
Mother doesn;t need a third rep, no matter how original he is.

Nom:
3X Vaati
2X Balloon Fighter

 

[Sqid]

Want: 4
Hey, why not another Psi Kid? People complain about clones but want costume changes. What's the big difference, "my favorite character didn't get a special moveset"? Well Lucas and Claus are twins, so I think a Claus clone of Lucas would be fine. Also, his look when he has the mask on is badass if that's what he would have, and a sword could be his version of Ness's yo-yo or Lucas's extra Psi (so for smashes). Another thing: he has wings. Gliding with a Psi kid would be crazy cool.
Likelihood: 2.3
He's popular and probably the best Mother rep, but doesn't seem like Mother would get another rep. If they get an English version out in NA/EU, then he has a much better chance (spread new release popularity, best candidate).

Prediction for Mach Rider: 1.3
Don't see how that would fit in fighting style.

Nominations: Ike x5

Off topic: Splat, do you have a link to the full picture of your avatar (Purple Bandana Dee)? It's a really cool recolor and I can;t find it anywhere.

 

[deuxhero]

Claus: Sorry, mother 3 was too long ago for him to get in. 2
Want: Eh, not major 2.

Nominate: Alexandra x5

Bayonetta x5

 

[Boulders Gate]

Want: 0.3
Likelihood: 0.4

Mother won't get a 3rd rep, and his moveset would be incredibly generic. He'd almost undoubtedly be the choice for a 3rd rep (Which will never happen), though I think Porky makes far more sense given superior moveset potential and being the only notable recurring character aside from the totally unplayable Giygas.

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

Claus, hmmm..


Assuming Lucas is in the game, I'd bet Claus would be too. Since Claus is an alternate costume of Lucas.

5/5

 

[MelMoe]

Nominations

Ike x10

Voting & Discussing

Masked Man

Personal Bias: 0.8
Likelihood: 0.5

Haven't played Mother 3 due to the game not being released outside of Japan & never looked into Claus. I do not think the Mother series will get a third rep because the series is still fairly obscure & small. Claus will only be playable if Lucas is too & I don't think Ness will get axed. I also prefer Porky because I actually played a game with him in it, & his gadgets could make an interesting moveset.

Prediction

Mach Rider: 2.12

 

[ShadowSmasher98]

Masked Man

Want: 0
Likelihood: 2.4

Mach Rider

Prediction: 0.7

Nominations: Doc. x3 & ShyGuy x2

 

[splat]

Claus

• Likelihood - 1.1 / 5
  While I don't think Mother will get a third rep, I believe that if it does, Claus is the most likely.
  
• Want - 3.2 / 5
  But only if he's playable as the Masked man. If he's just Claus I'd rather not see him, as he would probably play very close to Lucas.
  

Mach Rider

• Prediction - 1.83 / 5

Nominations

• Tingle x3
• Kamek x2

Off topic: Splat, do you have a link to the full picture of your avatar (Purple Bandana Dee)? It's a really cool recolor and I can;t find it anywhere.

I have a link, indeed. It's a recolor I made for this thread: Official Character Palette Swap Thread.
The image itself you can find here: Click.

 

[deuxhero]

Just noting I changed my nomination from Alexandra to Bayonetta.

 

[jigglover]

Want: 0 I don't like mother and earthbound.
Likelihood: 2 I think that Mother getting another rep is pretty likely due to Sakurai's bias, if he isn't in smash 4, then I think that he'll be a front-runner for 5.
Nominations: baby bros. x5
Prediction: 3.32

 

[Robert of Normandy]

Want: 0 I don't like mother and earthbound.

Get out of my house. NOW.

 

[Jhonnykiller45]

Claus:
Want- 1
Likelihoood- 0.9

I think that people are giving him more credit than of what he deserves.
Although Claus isn't impossible, his chances are very small due to not having a very big fan-base and due to MOTHER not having a game in quite a while.

Prediction for Mach Rider- 2.48

Nominations
Snake x3
Jigglypuff
Ike

 

[jigglover]

Get out of my house. NOW.

I've never played a mother or earthbound game, but from what I do know it doesn't look very good.

 

[Robert of Normandy]

i've never played a mother or earthbound game, but from what i do know it doesn't look very good.

OUT OUT OUT.caps

 

[jigglover]

OUT OUT OUT.caps

I love mother it's my favourite series ever and it doesn't get nearly enough representation in smash.

Spoiler

I'm lying!

 

[Robert of Normandy]

i love mother it's my favourite series ever and it doesn't get nearly enough representation in smash.

Spoiler

i'm lying!

KILL THE NON-BELIEVER!

Spoiler

caps

 

[Pichu4SSB4]

I've never played a mother or earthbound game, but from what I do know it doesn't look very good.

I don't like mother and earthbound.

You're the worst kind of criminal!

 

[jigglover]

I'm guessing you guys like the mother series here!

 

[Pichu4SSB4]

I love me some Mother, Shigesato Itoi is also a man i have a lot of respect for. Such a deep guy. :D

 

[jigglover]

I love me some Mother, Shigesato Itoi is also a man i have a lot of respect for. Such a deep guy. :D

I'm sorry, but I don't know who he is.

 

[Pichu4SSB4]

He's the creator of the Mother series, you should read the story about how he came up with Giygas. It's so depressing, yet so interesting.

 

[jigglover]

He's the creator of the Mother series, you should read the story about how he came up with Giygas. It's so depressing, yet so interesting.

I'll definitely do that. I promise.

 

[BKupa666]

Didn't he claim to see a **** scene in some movie that didn't actually have a **** scene? And that's how he came up with Giygas?

 

[jigglover]

Chain Chomp's back-story is the most interesting. Its design comes from a child-hood memory of Myamoto's. A dog was running to bite him when he was about 5 but it got pulled back by its lead, so it couldn't get to him! He then used that memory for a video-game character 30-something years later.

 

[Opossum]

That reminds me of a BitF comic...

Spoiler

But yeah, he actually bases quite a bit off of his life.

 

[jigglover]

That reminds me of a BitF comic...

Spoiler

But yeah, he actually bases quite a bit off of his life.

I laughed when I first saw that. Unfortunately it was a week ago.