Paper Mario Flips the Switch! -- Paper Mario Support Thread

[xzx]

"We believe in you, (Paper) Mario!"

 

[KirbyMonadoBoy]

I honestly wish that Paper Mario got more support (just look at the Geno - he gets so much more support, even though he appeared in only one game - I wish this thread was similarly active as the Geno thread). Paper Mario has such a unique moveset potential (just look at the moveset-illustration from Munomario777) and the he is the protagonist of 5 main games across several Nintendo consoles. There is so much great music that would fit perfetly to Smash. I really think he deserves to be in Smash, he already has his stage - Paper Mario is one of the few characters that almost nobody expects and that wasn't mentioned in any leak at all - it would be so dope if he gets revealed tomorrow, we need a surprise like that. My fingers are crossed!

 

[Munomario777]

aww shucks =)

chances are looking pretty low atm, which is a real shame. maybe DLC if the PM series keeps going strong...?

 

[Paper_Marzio]

Well it's been a fun ride but sadly Paper Mario's received little leak/insider attention, and enough circumstantial evidence through the Grinch Leak or other sources despite having good standings in the polls[Outside of that one Gothitelle Leak, but I'm 90% Mario2 is a placeholder, and that one Paper Mario leak that was done as a student project which looked pretty nice].

But regardless I'll still have Paper Mario as my most-wanted, and even if Geno is revealed tomorrow and the Grinch is true we can really anticipate one thing.

Paper Mario games are made around every 4 years or so [2000/2004/2007/2012/2016]. So there is a good chance for a Paper Mario game to take place around a theoretical next ballot.

Assuming that the future Ballot is happening about a year or so after Smash Ultimate's release[And that's just based on Smash 4 time, it could be longer since the Switch/Ultimate look much better], there's a good chance a future Paper Mario game coincides with the 2020 ballot. In addition to this the entire Mario RPG community will be [mostly] unified with SMRPG fans satisfied, and the M&L Fans most likely voting for the most similar series to theirs. sorry I want Fawful but I don't think it's likely, although if he appeared even as a blip in any modern Smash Poll I'd truly support him.

Even if they choose not to host a second ballot, and instead choose to use the old Ballot I think that's somehow an even better scenario, especially considering that Paper Mario is the 2nd runner up with Grinch characters taken out [Only beaten by Bandana Dee]

So overall even if Grinch is true this isn't the end, and his chances aren't 'Dead' in the event of no ballot, and a hopeful 2020 Paper Mario switch[Or heck, TTYD Port would do] would help out a lot.

 

[Yoshi 2410]

well that was disappointing

 

[Paper_Marzio]

Well can’t say I didn’t expect it.

But on the bright side we weren’t Spirit’d like Geno, or AT’d like Isaac, and there’s a great chance for Paper Mario as DLC now that we know it’s Non-Ballot.

Why is it good that’s it’s non-ballot?

Paper Mario, as I said before is now the 2nd most popular 1st party character, only beaten by Bandana Dee with Isaac AT’d

 

[Ridrool64]

Not in, but not out. He’s not in any other role.

 

[MegaMarioMan9]

We'll just have to root for him through the DLC period. Also, it's still possible Paper Mario is one of the Spirits, since Paper Bowser and Shadow Queen Peach were present. However, even if he is, I highly doubt that would deconfirm any character. It seems simple enough to upgrade a Spirit to a character, more so than an Assist Trophy. I'd compare it to a trophy being upgraded.

 

[xzx]

We literally got a Mario character that started with the letter "P" and it wasn't Paper Mario... .-.

But is it really game over for us? Hear me out:

Paper Mario isn't an AT. That's a very big plus for his inclusion as a potential DLC character. He may not be a Spirit either. If he is then (maybe) RIP, but otherwise we still have a decent chance. (Dillon is both a Spirit and an AT, but I don't think a playable character can be both honestly.)

Sakurai basically confirmed that we will be getting 5 DLC characters (if we exclude Piranha Plant). My guess/theory is that those 5 characters was planned for the base roster, but due to time constraints and whatnot, those 5 couldn't be finished in time. (IIRC Sakurai said that we will be getting those 5 fighters within next year, meaning that he must have done some prework on them already, since creating a character from scratch takes about 6 months or so. (That was Smash 4 Mewtwo's case, if you remember.)) So instead of scrapping them he wanted to make them as DLC. It is very likely that he chose those "lucky" 5 characters from the Smash Ballot. Which popular (or recent characters) characters are left?

Isaac: AT
Springman: AT
Rex: Mii Costume
Skull Kid: AT
Geno: Spirit
Dixie Kong
Shadow: AT
Bandana Waddle Dee
Paper Mario
Banjo-Kazooie
Elma
Octoling (Splatoon 2)
Someone else I've might forgotten.

If we narrow down the choices we've got these characters left:

Bandana Waddle Dee
Paper Mario
Banjo-Kazooie
Elma
Dixie Kong
Octoling (Splatoon 2)

If those characters didn't have a shot at being DLC then I think at the very least Bandana Waddle Dee (given his popularity) and Paper Mario would have been Assist Trophies. Of course, they could just be Spirits like everyone else, but I'd really think that Sakurai would have made them ATs instead, maybe even Elma, Dixie Kong, Octoling and Banjo-Kazooie too.

So my prediction of who the 5 DLC characters will be are following:

Bandana Waddle Dee
Paper Mario
Elma
Banjo-Kazooie/Yooka-Laylee
Either a Gen VIII Pokémon to promote the next Pokémon generation or a crazy Sakurai pick (i.e. Chorus Kids) or a Square Enix character (possibly Geno, given the Square Enix rumor and Sakurai wanting him in Brawl)

If I understood it correctly, we would'nt get any more Echo fighters, meaning that Dixie Kong and Octoling are out. (Though they could still be semi-clones.) So my conclusion is that Paper Mario very well could be a DLC character! He actually still has a shot! (Though I'm not gonna raise my expectations way too high, but they have risen nonetheless.)

Guys, we still have hope! Don't lose it until it is over! All popular ballot characters (that aren't playable fighters) have been represented in either as an Assist Trophy or as a Mii costume. (In the case of Geno he may still be in despite being a Spirit, but I doubt so and now actually believes that a Square Enix not Geno will be a character.)

The only things I can see that speaks against Paper Mario is that if he is a Spirit and that being a Spirit equals not being a playable character (á la Assist Trophies), or this: Every DLC fighter will come with their own stage. Paper Mario already has a stage named "Paper Mario". Either he will get another stage, or he isn't a DLC character because of this. (There are rumored to be 5 more stages and they line up with Sakurai's "5 DLC characters, 5 new stages" plan, so this could either hinder Paper Mario's chances or simply mean that we will get another Paper Mario stage!)

We believe in you, Paper Mario!

 

[KirbyMonadoBoy]

Unfortunately I don't think he will be one of the 5 DLC characters. Since he said that every new fighter will get a new stage as well… and there is already a Paper Mario stage.... sorry... but I simply don't think we will get 2 Paper Mario Stages, no Paper Mario I guess… at least not until after we get the 5 other DLC characters

 

[xzx]

Unfortunately I don't think he will be one of the 5 DLC characters. Since he said that every new fighter will get a new stage as well… and there is already a Paper Mario stage.... sorry... but I simply don't think we will get 2 Paper Mario Stages, no Paper Mario I guess… at least not until we get the 5 other DLC characters

Yeah I see where you're coming from, and I touched on this as well in my previous post, however...

Paper Mario could still get a second stage, maybe one based off Paper Mario 64 or Super Paper Mario. If we get a new Paper Mario stage then I feel it would be one from his latest game, and I'm not talking about Colour Splash. Now I don't know how many of you will believe me when I say this, but a brand-new Paper Mario game is in development right now and will be scheduled for 2019. I won't say I know this, but I heard this from a local Nintendo Bergsala employee when I chatted with him during a Smash Demo event here in Sweden that took place like 2 months ago. It was held in Stockholm and was called "Kistamässan". I asked him a slew of Nintendo related questions, mostly Smash questions. But since my favourite gaming series are Pokémon Mystery Dungeon and Paper Mario, I asked him if there was anything going on with those two series on the Switch. He actually said to me that there is currently a Paper Mario switch game under development that will be "another Sticker Star/Colour Splash", meaning not a "traditional" Paper Mario game like the first two games. (Why...) He also said that the Mystery Dungeon series is doing well and that the Switch game will be showcased with a trailer in a Nintendo direct this December around the holiday seasons. (He has worked at Bergsala like two years and is kinda a "higher-up" at his work, though not a manager of some sort.)

So to tie in with the stage issue, we could very well get a Paper Mario stage based on the Paper Mario switch game. That isn't impossible. Come on, don't lose hope yet! =^P (Bandana Waddle Dee's stage could be a Star Allies stage, despite there being many Kirby stages already.)

 

[Jubileus57]

Has anyone noticed during the Piranha Plant trailer that before its poison attack it turns into the Putrid Piranha from the first 3 PM games? I thought that wsa a cool nod to the series.

Besides this, I really hope PM's DLC. He is the one I want the most after BWD.

 

[xzx]

Has anyone noticed during the Piranha Plant trailer that before its poison attack it turns into the Putrid Piranha from the first 3 PM games? I thought that wsa a cool nod to the series.

Besides this, I really hope PM's DLC. He is the one I want the most after BWD.

Yeah that's pretty cool. Sakurai is aware.

Also, although Yoshi's final smash is that Melee Yoshi intro thing, Mini-Yoshi from Thousand-Year Door utilizes this too in his Stampede attack. Also a nod, even though it's based of Melee's intro.

I think Sakurai has been aware of Paper Mario for a long time but have given him low priority. I hope he will put Paper Mario in as a DLC this time around!

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Well, Paper Mario survived the final Nintendo Direct... and 3 Links disproves any criticism along those lines for Paper Mario. Count me in as a supporter; can't remember if I've done this or not, just wanted to drop by after the Spirapocolypse.

 

[aldelaro5]

I post in this forum very rarely these days, but I HAVE to for the occasion here.

Essentially, this was, to me the hypest part of the entire direct:

Btw, for those who wonder about the TTYD putrid pirhana plant, here's a visual comparison pic.twitter.com/rMurK8Qca7

— aldelaro5 (@aldelaro5) November 1, 2018

Now, before you say "lol it's just an alt, why get so hyped?" IT'S NOT! If you watch his reveal trailer at 0:48...

You can clearly see it TURNS into it for the move meaning it is a MOVE representation, not an alt!

This is both the most meme thing I ever heard and also the most amazing thing lol. I have a complicated situation with paper mario playabale, but I NEVER expected to get a move representation out of the freaking pirhana plant which was even LESS expected!

I actually still can't believe we got that lol

They even got the teeth color right. Like it is very clear they took the thing from TTYD/SPM which makes me VERY happy.

Oh by the way, this also happened:

YES!

Anyway, point is, altough there is still hopes for proper ttyd and spm music (pls....), I didn't expected the representation would actually EXPAND! Very excited about the game and I am going to try to main pp for the meme :D

 

[Guybrush20X6]

I post in this forum very rarely these days, but I HAVE to for the occasion here.

Essentially, this was, to me the hypest part of the entire direct:

Btw, for those who wonder about the TTYD putrid pirhana plant, here's a visual comparison pic.twitter.com/rMurK8Qca7

— aldelaro5 (@aldelaro5) November 1, 2018

Now, before you say "lol it's just an alt, why get so hyped?" IT'S NOT! If you watch his reveal trailer at 0:48...

You can clearly see it TURNS into it for the move meaning it is a MOVE representation, not an alt!

This is both the most meme thing I ever heard and also the most amazing thing lol. I have a complicated situation with paper mario playabale, but I NEVER expected to get a move representation out of the freaking pirhana plant which was even LESS expected!

I actually still can't believe we got that lol

They even got the teeth color right. Like it is very clear they took the thing from TTYD/SPM which makes me VERY happy.

Oh by the way, this also happened:

YES!

Anyway, point is, altough there is still hopes for proper ttyd and spm music (pls....), I didn't expected the representation would actually EXPAND! Very excited about the game and I am going to try to main pp for the meme :D

I'm very happy about all this.

Not because I think it garuntees Paper Mario as DLC, but it does confirm that if he is, his moveset won't be nothing but-

"YAY STICKERS"

 

[Flarestorm]

Paper Mario seems to be a spirit unfortunately https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DrE44IGVsAE3_Ne.jpg:large

 

[KirbyMonadoBoy]

Paper Mario seems to be a spirit unfortunately https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DrE44IGVsAE3_Ne.jpg:large

Oh no ;_;
Hopefully spirits really do not deconfirm characters.
Btw, does anyone know if there are new Paper Mario songs?
I've seen gameplay on the Paper Mario stage, however the Music was some new song from a Mario & Luigi game.

 

[xzx]

Does anyone know if that Paper Mario spirit's japanese name is "Paper Mario"? (What does it translate to?)

EDIT: I remember pretty recently that somebody said that there was a spirit of Daisy too, like her Super Mario Land version? Please let this mean there is still hope!! Now I really hope that spirits doesn't deconfirm characters, because I wan...no, NEED Paper Mario in Smash Bros. Ultimate!!!

 

[Organization XIII]

ATs and spirits aren't deconfirmation. There's no need to lose hope.

 

[aldelaro5]

....ooooh boy this is a rough start in here...

I'm very happy about all this.

Not because I think it garuntees Paper Mario as DLC, but it does confirm that if he is, his moveset won't be nothing but-

"YAY STICKERS"

Can I please hear your reasoning? It doesn't guarantee ANYTHING, the plant actually referenced so many games it's just one among others, the interesting part about it is how they went as far as to do it for ttyd/spm to get a poisonous attack. Also, not even going to argue about his moveset part: it's clearly far fetched.

Paper Mario seems to be a spirit unfortunately https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DrE44IGVsAE3_Ne.jpg:large

I'd argue it's fortunate! ssb4 has a clear case of a trophy getting promoted to dlc (mewtwo) so it's known at this point that if you get a trophy, it doesn't mean much. MAAAAAAAYYYYYYYBBBBBEEE AT, but even then, it's a really illogical assumption.

Also, y'all missed this part:

Spirits is amazing.

In order to call back Paper Mario, players will have to use Cut Man and a cardboard box. pic.twitter.com/946r0CMPuu

— Will (PushDustIn) (@PushDustIn) November 3, 2018

Which makes it awesome no matter what!

Not saying that I still fully support him playable still (it's a complicated situation where the style I want is very unlikely), but still, it is honestly neat representation.

 

[Organization XIII]

MAAAAAAAYYYYYYYBBBBBEEE AT, but even then, it's a really illogical assumption.

It's not really illogical. ATs being unable to be DLC is just a fan rule. ATs have been upgraded in the past and with their changes, they are closer to playable than ever before so they would provide a nice base to make a character rather than starting from scratch. I'm not saying it will happen but there are obvious benefits to doing so.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Can I please hear your reasoning? It doesn't guarantee ANYTHING, the plant actually referenced so many games it's just one among others, the interesting part about it is how they went as far as to do it for ttyd/spm to get a poisonous attack. Also, not even going to argue about his moveset part: it's clearly far fetched.

I said it was a guarantee, I said it SEEMS to confirm. The interesting part is that a design is referenced directly from Paper Mario when we know from experience that Nintendo doesn't like mixing and matching Mario interpretations for some reason. For example, Mojang's Mario pack originally used stuff from Paper Mario like Hooktail as the EnderDragon but it was changed on request.

And this combined with the second part of the Paper Mario Stage does show Sakurai is aware and open to using the Classic Paper Marios. Part of why I lost hope for Paper Mario in this cycle was Nintendo doubling down on the new Paper Mario direction with Color splash which seemed to want to be nothing but the "new" Super Mario Bros games in RPG-lite with papercraft.

 

[aldelaro5]

I said it was a guarantee, I said it SEEMS to confirm. The interesting part is that a design is referenced directly from Paper Mario when we know from experience that Nintendo doesn't like mixing and matching Mario interpretations for some reason. For example, Mojang's Mario pack originally used stuff from Paper Mario like Hooktail as the EnderDragon but it was changed on request.

And this combined with the second part of the Paper Mario Stage does show Sakurai is aware and open to using the Classic Paper Marios. Part of why I lost hope for Paper Mario in this cycle was Nintendo doubling down on the new Paper Mario direction with Color splash which seemed to want to be nothing but the "new" Super Mario Bros games in RPG-lite with papercraft.

The problem is nothing we have seen changed anything.

The second part of the paper mario stage was announced at a time where cs was unheard of so it's kind of irrelevant to bring this one: myself and many others were expecting a change in the series that didn't happen. Also, you still have to consider that 2/3 of the stage was from ss because it happened to be the newest game at the time which means that cs still brings the same problems, just even worse.

Now about pp because you really seem to think it changed that part: it didn't because the series is in the same state except worse than before. The reality here is that in the event that they do decide to put him in and it's mostly from the latest 2 games, it's not Sakurai nor necessary his team's fault, but rather Inteligent System and Nintenfo for creating a situation where it would be logical to do this. Yes, you can still hope in the very unlikely situation they decide to do otherwise, but it has the same chances as before: unlikely and pp the only thing it did is reference a very specific part of TTYD/SPM which actually might have been because they wanted to diversify pp.

Also, I want to talk about DLC because let's look ahead for a moment as I don't think the timing is really good for that part to change. Let's assume due to a miracle, nintendo finally decided to listen to their fans and a game that brings back the series would be in development RIGHT NOW. Well, if you check the release cycle of the series, you will notice that with the exception of sticker star (which had development problems so delays), every game in the series is released after a period of about 4 years.

Color Splash was released 2 years ago and the games (again, with the exception of sticker star which was done early) aren't typically announced until say a couple months before their release (I mean TTYD was released at the same year of the e3 to which it was announced).

My point here is that this imaginary game is projected according to these observations to be released AFTER February 2020 (more like end of 2020). The best hope you could have for its announcement might be on February 2020, but that still kind of too late, they would have planned the last DLC like months before. Essentially, the timing is really bad for him: he won't get a new game in the DLC developing period so in the event that everything changed (which I really think it won't to be honest), well it wouldn't even benefit the chances to have a good moveset for ssb...

I might sound very pessimistic over this and you might not have the same outlook on this situation, but I rather consider everything that has happened since color splash was announced as what IS and Nintendo thinks of the series instead of trying to expect something that would imply that what they said changed overnight.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

The problem is nothing we have seen changed anything.

The second part of the paper mario stage was announced at a time where cs was unheard of so it's kind of irrelevant to bring this one: myself and many others were expecting a change in the series that didn't happen. Also, you still have to consider that 2/3 of the stage was from ss because it happened to be the newest game at the time which means that cs still brings the same problems, just even worse.

Now about pp because you really seem to think it changed that part: it didn't because the series is in the same state except worse than before. The reality here is that in the event that they do decide to put him in and it's mostly from the latest 2 games, it's not Sakurai nor necessary his team's fault, but rather Inteligent System and Nintenfo for creating a situation where it would be logical to do this. Yes, you can still hope in the very unlikely situation they decide to do otherwise, but it has the same chances as before: unlikely and pp the only thing it did is reference a very specific part of TTYD/SPM which actually might have been because they wanted to diversify pp.

Also, I want to talk about DLC because let's look ahead for a moment as I don't think the timing is really good for that part to change. Let's assume due to a miracle, nintendo finally decided to listen to their fans and a game that brings back the series would be in development RIGHT NOW. Well, if you check the release cycle of the series, you will notice that with the exception of sticker star (which had development problems so delays), every game in the series is released after a period of about 4 years.

Color Splash was released 2 years ago and the games (again, with the exception of sticker star which was done early) aren't typically announced until say a couple months before their release (I mean TTYD was released at the same year of the e3 to which it was announced).

My point here is that this imaginary game is projected according to these observations to be released AFTER February 2020 (more like end of 2020). The best hope you could have for its announcement might be on February 2020, but that still kind of too late, they would have planned the last DLC like months before. Essentially, the timing is really bad for him: he won't get a new game in the DLC developing period so in the event that everything changed (which I really think it won't to be honest), well it wouldn't even benefit the chances to have a good moveset for ssb...

I might sound very pessimistic over this and you might not have the same outlook on this situation, but I rather consider everything that has happened since color splash was announced as what IS and Nintendo thinks of the series instead of trying to expect something that would imply that what they said changed overnight.

You're right, you sound extraordinarily pessimistic. To the point you're trying to bring me down., it seems.
I'm saying there's a snowball's chance in heck that something will happen, I'm not so naive to think one color swap for an attack guarantees anything. I'm saying the fact that there is gives me hope and you give several paragraphs of why I shouldn't?

And this has nothing to do with a new Paper Mario game. It would be good if they finally got it in their heads that leveling up in more than increasing health point and that the Mushroom Kingdom, even in the main series alone has more friendly faces than just Toads but that's not directly linked to Paper Mario's chances, the ballot is.

At the end of the day, Sakurai is not someone who's easily cowed, it took 3 hype cycles and a ballot to convince him to try Ridley and he's on record as saying that if he couldn't use Classic Pac-Man, there'd be no Pac in Smash. If he wants Paper Mario to have a moveset that references the older games, in part or in whole, Nintendo/IS aren't going to force him to make a moveset of nothing but stickers. Of course if he wants a moveset of stickers that's what we'll get but that's besides the point.

 

[Paper_Marzio]

https://twitter.com/Sora_Sakurai/status/1059958604818657282
Sakurai tweeted. It's entirely by Nintendo this time around

In all likelihood it's going to be corporate picks with the ballot rendered irrelevant but I'm hoping for a late 2019/Early 2020 Paper Mario Switch reveal considering that these reps are going to be mostly promotional picks, and Paper Mario should be prominent around that time for a promotion.

 

[KirbyMonadoBoy]

The fact that solely Nintendo picked the characters this time might be a good sign for Paper Mario. He is one of only a few big Nintendo 1st-party characters, who are well known and still relevant.

 

[Ridrool64]

I operate under the belief that Spirits are disconfirmations, but if Paper Mario proves me wrong, then that's for the best.

 

[Cosmic77]

If Nintendo is calling the shots, then consider that a huge advantage for Paper Mario. They already show blatant favoritism toward the Mario franchise, and I'd imagine they'd only be interested in selecting characters who would be both highly recognizable and very profitable (or at the very least, a promotable character for an upcoming game that's expected to drive Switch sales.)

Don't celebrate just yet, but I think this bodes well for Paper Mario. I might even consider him to be the most likely Super Mario rep at this point.

 

[Pakky]

Large fat support for Paper Mario cuz TTYD is dank, also nod to Super for not being awful.

Miss me with that Sticker star bull though.

 

[MonkeyDLenny]

While Banjo-Kazooie is my absolute number one pick, I'd also love to see Paper Mario in the game; and with the recent announcement that Nintendo the company is calling the DLC shots, I think his chances have never been higher.

I'm in the camp of "Nintendo is ONLY going to pick relevant characters" so the Banjo dream is dead and buried for me. However, I do believe they'll pick at least ONE of the higher placing Ballot characters just to say "Look! Look! We listened!"

But, it's also going to be an extremely safe, first-party pick that won't force them out of their comfort zone: Which in my eyes means that both Paper Mario and Bandana Waddle Dee have the best shots they've ever had right now

 

[verysleepywolf]

One thing I noticed: we have three Links and three Samuses, but only two Marios. Doesn't quite feel right.

 

[TheYungLink]

One thing I noticed: we have three Links and three Samuses, but only two Marios. Doesn't quite feel right.

That's because we actually have 4 Marios: Mario , Doctor Mario , Bad Mario , and Green Mario .

That's not enough Marios! Mario is the largest franchise in Nintendo's repertoire that isn't Pokemon, so it needs to assert its dominance by adding a FIFTH Mario--another reason I want Paper Mario in.

Maybe this is the reason Waluigi will never be playable, now that I think about it: he's not a Mario, he's an alternative of Luigi, who is already a Mario. An alternative to an alternative is too tenuous a connection to The Mario.

 

[Ridrool64]

A leaker has been making claims about who he's heard in consideration for Smash DLC. Among these names, Paper Mario was not one of them. Whether or not this puts him out of the running is up to you.

 

[RetrogamerMax]

A leaker has been making claims about who he's heard in consideration for Smash DLC. Among these names, Paper Mario was not one of them. Whether or not this puts him out of the running is up to you.

Hitagi hasn't gotten anything right yet about Smash, so people shouldn't put stock in him even if Verge trusts him.

 

[Ridrool64]

Yeah, that's my take on it.

And even if Steve happens, while bad news, it's at least not a death blow because Steve is a candidate that makes sense in general so anybody could leak him.

If Katalina happens, though? Game Over. That's far too hard a call.

 

[Squirtle/Mario guy]

Slap me on the support list, idc just glue me on.

Well with this direct I've come up with some pros and cons.

Pros:
Captain Toad is virtually de-confirmed due to being in the back-round of New Donk, so that clears up a competing Mario Rep slot and a frontrunner in virtually every Mario Poll for the Mario Rep.
No Mario reps confirmed, so we don't know who the Mario Rep is this time around.

Toon Link is a background element, so if he's being played Alfonanzo will take his place so it's not an instant kill for Captain Toad so if he's being played then Archivist Toadette will take his place

 

[Guybrush20X6]

I wonder if there's a new Paper Mario in the works.

The logical thing to do would be to take Color Splash's assets and engine and try and make a new game out of that.

Even if they go the port route, they'll be forced to take out the (forced in the first place) touch screen controls so that's a good 80% of the tedium taken out.

 

[Yoshi 2410]

According to this interview it seems that DLC is gonna be third party only. Add that to the fact that more evidence seems to point out that spirits do deconfirm characters and we get a broken dream.

Time to rip the band-aid off, guys. Paper Mario is deconfirmed.

 

[MegaMarioMan9]

According to this interview it seems that DLC is gonna be third party only. Add that to the fact that more evidence seems to point out that spirits do deconfirm characters and we get a broken dream.

Time to rip the band-aid off, guys. Paper Mario is deconfirmed.

For now? Yeah, probably. However, we shouldn't count out the possibility of a second wave of DLC. If they do decide on doing a second wave, I'm betting they'll be focusing on popular first party characters, where we'd have more than a good chance. Of course there's no guarantee we'll get a second wave, but we shouldn't lose hope just yet!